Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal in Measurably Evolving Populations

Cassava brown streak virus evolves with a nucleotide-substitution rate that is typical for the family Potyviridae

The ipomoviruses (family Potyviridae) that cause cassava brown streak disease (cassava brown streak virus [CBSV] and Uganda cassava brown streak virus [UCBSV]) are damaging plant pathogens that affect the sustainability of cassava production in East and Central Africa. However, little is known about the rate at which the viruses evolve and when they emerged in Africa - which inform how easily these viruses can host shift and resist RNAi approaches for control. We present here the rates of evolution determined from the coat protein gene (CP) of CBSV (Temporal signal in a UCBSV dataset was not sufficient for comparable analysis). Our BEAST analysis estimated the CBSV CP evolves at a mean rate of 1.43 × 10-3 nucleotide substitutions per site per year, with the most recent common ancestor of sampled CBSV isolates existing in 1944 (95% HPD, between years 1922 - 1963). We compared the published measured and estimated rates of evolution of CPs from ten families of plant viruses and showed that CBSV is an average-evolving potyvirid, but that members of Potyviridae evolve more quickly than members of Virgaviridae and the single representatives of Betaflexiviridae, Bunyaviridae, Caulimoviridae and Closteroviridae.

Molecular evolution and phylogeographic analysis of wheat dwarf virus

Wheat dwarf virus (WDV) has caused considerable economic loss in the global production of grain crops. Knowledge of the evolutionary biology and population history of the pathogen remain poorly understood. We performed molecular evolution and worldwide phylodynamic analyses of the virus based on the genes in the protein-coding region of the entire viral genome. Our results showed that host-driven and geography-driven adaptation are major factors that affects the evolution of WDV. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis estimates that the average WDV substitution rate was 4.240 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year (95% credibility interval, 2.828 × 10-4-5.723 × 10-4), and the evolutionary rates of genes encoding proteins with virion-sense transcripts and genes encoding proteins with complementary-sense transcripts were different. The positively selected sites were detected in only two genes encoding proteins with complementary-sense, and WDV-barley are subject to stronger purifying selection than WDV-wheat. The time since the most recent common WDV ancestor was 1746 (95% credibility interval, 1517-1893) CE. Further analyses identified that the WDV-barley population and WDV-wheat population experienced dramatic expansion-decline episodes, and the expansion time of the WDV-barley population was earlier than that of the WDV-wheat population. Our phylogeographic analysis showed that the WDV population originating in Iran was subsequently introduced to Europe, and then spread from Eastern Europe to China.

Convergence of resistance and evolutionary responses in Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica co-inhabiting chicken farms in China

Sharing of genetic elements among different pathogens and commensals inhabiting same hosts and environments has significant implications for antimicrobial resistance (AMR), especially in settings with high antimicrobial exposure. We analysed 661 Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica isolates collected within and across hosts and environments, in 10 Chinese chicken farms over 2.5 years using data-mining methods. Most isolates within same hosts possessed the same clinically relevant AMR-carrying mobile genetic elements (plasmids: 70.6%, transposons: 78%), which also showed recent common evolution. Supervised machine learning classifiers revealed known and novel AMR-associated mutations and genes underlying resistance to 28 antimicrobials, primarily associated with resistance in E. coli and susceptibility in S. enterica. Many were essential and affected same metabolic processes in both species, albeit with varying degrees of phylogenetic penetration. Multi-modal strategies are crucial to investigate the interplay of mobilome, resistance and metabolism in cohabiting bacteria, especially in ecological settings where community-driven resistance selection occurs.

Recombination-aware phylogenetic analysis sheds light on the evolutionary origin of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 can infect human cells through the recognition of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor. This affinity is given by six amino acid residues located in the variable loop of the receptor binding domain (RBD) within the Spike protein. Genetic recombination involving bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses, and natural selection have been proposed as possible explanations for the acquisition of the variable loop and these amino acid residues. In this study we employed Bayesian phylogenetics to jointly reconstruct the phylogeny of the RBD among human, bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses and detect recombination events affecting this region of the genome. A recombination event involving RaTG13, the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 that lacks five of the six residues, and an unsampled Sarbecovirus lineage was detected. This result suggests that the variable loop of the RBD didn't have a recombinant origin and the key amino acid residues were likely present in the common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, with the latter losing five of them probably as the result of recombination.

Increase in antioxidant capacity associated with the successful subclone of hypervirulent carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae ST11-KL64

The acquisition of exogenous mobile genetic material imposes an adaptive burden on bacteria, whereas the adaptational evolution of virulence plasmids upon entry into carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) and its impact remains unclear. To better understand the virulence in CRKP, we characterize virulence plasmids utilizing a large genomic data containing 1219 K. pneumoniae from our long-term surveillance and publicly accessible databases. Phylogenetic evaluation unveils associations between distinct virulence plasmids and serotypes. The sub-lineage ST11-KL64 CRKP acquires a pK2044-like virulence plasmid from ST23-KL1 hypervirulent K. pneumoniae, with a 2698 bp region deletion in all ST11-KL64. The deletion is observed to regulate methionine metabolism, enhance antioxidant capacity, and further improve survival of hypervirulent CRKP in macrophages. The pK2044-like virulence plasmid discards certain sequences to enhance survival of ST11-KL64, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage. This work contributes to multifaceted understanding of virulence and provides insight into potential causes behind low fitness costs observed in bacteria.

Revisiting the origins of the Sobemovirus genus: A case for ancient origins of plant viruses

The discrepancy between short- and long-term rate estimates, known as the time-dependent rate phenomenon (TDRP), poses a challenge to extrapolating evolutionary rates over time and reconstructing evolutionary history of viruses. The TDRP reveals a decline in evolutionary rate estimates with the measurement timescale, explained empirically by a power-law rate decay, notably observed in animal and human viruses. A mechanistic evolutionary model, the Prisoner of War (PoW) model, has been proposed to address TDRP in viruses. Although TDRP has been studied in animal viruses, its impact on plant virus evolutionary history remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the consequences of TDRP in plant viruses by applying the PoW model to reconstruct the evolutionary history of sobemoviruses, plant pathogens with significant importance due to their impact on agriculture and plant health. Our analysis showed that the Sobemovirus genus dates back over four million years, indicating an ancient origin. We found evidence that supports deep host jumps to Poaceae, Fabaceae, and Solanaceae occurring between tens to hundreds of thousand years ago, followed by specialization. Remarkably, the TDRP-corrected evolutionary history of sobemoviruses was extended far beyond previous estimates that had suggested their emergence nearly 9,000 years ago, a time coinciding with the Neolithic period in the Near East. By incorporating sequences collected through metagenomic analyses, the resulting phylogenetic tree showcases increased genetic diversity, reflecting a deep history of sobemovirus species. We identified major radiation events beginning between 4,600 to 2,000 years ago, which aligns with the Neolithic period in various regions, suggesting a period of rapid diversification from then to the present. Our findings make a case for the possibility of deep evolutionary origins of plant viruses.

Synergetic association between coxsackievirus A16 genotype evolution and recombinant form shifts

Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) is a major pathogen that causes hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). The recombination form (RF) shifts and global transmission dynamics of CVA16 remain unknown. In this retrospective study, global sequences of CVA16 were retrieved from the GenBank database and analyzed using comprehensive phylogenetic inference, RF surveys, and population structure. A total of 1,663 sequences were collected, forming a 442-sequences dataset for VP1 coding region analysis and a 345-sequences dataset for RF identification. Based on the VP1 coding region used for serotyping, three genotypes (A, B, and D), two subgenotypes of genotype B (B1 and B2), and three clusters of subgenotype B1 (B1a, B1b, and B1c) were identified. Cluster B1b has dominated the global epidemics, B2 disappeared in 2000, and D is an emerging genotype dating back to August 2002. Globally, four oscillation phases of CVA16 evolution, with a peak in 2013, and three migration pathways were identified. Europe, China, and Japan have served as the seeds for the global transmission of CVA16. Based on the 3D coding region of the RFs, five clusters of RFs (RF-A to -E) were identified. The shift in RFs from RF-B and RF-C to RF-D was accompanied by a change in genotype from B2 to B1a and B1c and then to B1b. In conclusion, the evolution and population dynamics of CVA16, especially the coevolution of 3D and VP1 genes, revealed that genotype evolution and RF replacement were synergistic rather than stochastic.

Ancient chicken remains reveal the origins of virulence in Marek's disease virus

The pronounced growth in livestock populations since the 1950s has altered the epidemiological and evolutionary trajectory of their associated pathogens. For example, Marek's disease virus (MDV), which causes lymphoid tumors in chickens, has experienced a marked increase in virulence over the past century. Today, MDV infections kill >90% of unvaccinated birds, and controlling it costs more than US$1 billion annually. By sequencing MDV genomes derived from archeological chickens, we demonstrate that it has been circulating for at least 1000 years. We functionally tested the Meq oncogene, one of 49 viral genes positively selected in modern strains, demonstrating that ancient MDV was likely incapable of driving tumor formation. Our results demonstrate the power of ancient DNA approaches to trace the molecular basis of virulence in economically relevant pathogens.

Genetic diversity and characterization of rhinoviruses from Chinese clinical samples with a global perspective

IMPORTANCE

Based on clinical samples collected in China, we detected and reported 22 types for the first time in China, as well as three types for the first time in Asia, and reported their genetic characteristics and diversity. We identified a novel type of Rhinovirus (RV), A110, highlighting its unique genetic features. We annotated the genomic structure and serotype of all the existing RV sequences in the database, and four novel RV types were identified and their genetic diversity reported. Combined with the sequence annotation, we constructed a complete VP1 data set of RV and conducted the first large-scale evolutionary dynamics analysis of RV. Based on a high-quality data set, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the guanine-cytosine (GC) content variations among serotypes of RVs. This study provides crucial theoretical support and valuable data for understanding RV's genetic diversity and developing antiviral strategies.

Parallel evolution of picobirnaviruses from distinct ancestral origins

IMPORTANCE

Picobirnaviruses (PBVs) are highly heterogeneous viruses encoding a capsid and RdRp. Detected in a wide variety of animals with and without disease, their association with gastrointestinal and respiratory infections, and consequently their public health importance, has rightly been questioned. Determining the "true" host of Picobirnavirus lies at the center of this debate, as evidence exists for them having both vertebrate and prokaryotic origins. Using integrated and time-stamped phylogenetic approaches, we show they are contemporaneous viruses descending from two different ancestors: avian Reovirus and fungal Partitivirus. The fungal PBV-R2 species emerged with a single segment (RdRp) until it acquired a capsid from vertebrate PBV-R1 and PBV-R3 species. Protein and RNA folding analyses revealed how the former came to resemble the latter over time. Thus, parallel evolution from disparate hosts has driven the adaptation and genetic diversification of the Picobirnaviridae family.

Genetic Diversity, Evolution, and Diagnosis of Sugarcane Yellow Leaf Virus from 19 Sugarcane-Producing Locations Worldwide

Sugarcane yellow leaf virus (SCYLV), the causal agent of yellow leaf, has been reported in an increasing number of sugarcane-growing locations since its first report in the 1990s in Brazil, Florida, and Hawaii. In this study, the genetic diversity of SCYLV was investigated using the genome coding sequence (5,561 to 5,612 nt) of 109 virus isolates from 19 geographical locations, including 65 new isolates from 16 geographical regions worldwide. These isolates were distributed in three major phylogenetic lineages (BRA, CUB, and REU), except for one isolate from Guatemala. Twenty-two recombination events were identified among the 109 isolates of SCYLV, thus confirming that recombination was a significant driving force in the genetic diversity and evolution of this virus. No temporal signal was found in the genomic sequence dataset, most likely because of the short temporal window of the 109 SCYLV isolates (1998 to 2020). Among 27 primers reported in the literature for the detection of the virus by RT-PCR, none matched 100% with all 109 SCYLV sequences, suggesting that the use of some primer pairs may not result in the detection of all virus isolates. Primers YLS111/YLS462, which were the first primer pair used by numerous research organizations to detect the virus by RT-PCR, failed to detect isolates belonging to the CUB lineage. In contrast, primer pair ScYLVf1/ScYLVr1 efficiently detected isolates of all three lineages. Continuous pursuit of knowledge of SCYLV genetic variability is therefore critical for effective diagnosis of yellow leaf, especially in virus-infected and mainly asymptomatic sugarcane plants.

Parallel signatures of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human Y-chromosome phylogeography support the Two Layer model of East Asian population history

The Two Layer hypothesis is fast becoming the favoured narrative describing East Asian population history. Under this model, hunter-gatherer groups who initially peopled East Asia via a route south of the Himalayas were assimilated by agriculturalist migrants who arrived via a northern route across Eurasia. A lack of ancient samples from tropical East Asia limits the resolution of this model. We consider insight afforded by patterns of variation within the human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by analysing its phylogeographic signatures jointly with the human Y-chromosome. We demonstrate the Y-chromosome lineages enriched in the traditionally hunter-gatherer groups associated with East Asia's first layer of peopling to display deep roots, low long-term effective population size, and diversity patterns consistent with a southern entry route. These characteristics mirror those of the evolutionarily ancient Mtb lineage 1. The remaining East Asian Y-chromosome lineage is almost entirely absent from traditionally hunter-gatherer groups and displays spatial and temporal characteristics which are incompatible with a southern entry route, and which link it to the development of agriculture in modern-day China. These characteristics mirror those of the evolutionarily modern Mtb lineage 2. This model paves the way for novel host-pathogen coevolutionary research hypotheses in East Asia.

A Proofreading Mutation with an Allosteric Effect Allows a Cluster of SARS-CoV-2 Viruses to Rapidly Evolve

The RNA-dependent RNA polymerase of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus is error prone, with errors being corrected by the exonuclease (NSP14) proofreading mechanism. However, the mutagenesis and subsequent evolutionary trajectory of the virus is mediated by the delicate interplay of replicase fidelity and environmental pressures. Here, we have shown that a single, distal mutation (F60S) in NSP14 can have a profound impact upon proofreading with an increased accumulation of mutations and elevated evolutionary rate being observed. Understanding the implications of these changes is crucial, as these underlying mutational processes may have important implications for understanding the population-wide evolution of the virus. This study underscores the urgent need for continued research into the replicative mechanisms of this virus to combat its continued impact on global health, through the re-emergence of immuno-evasive variants.

The genetic diversity of Nipah virus across spatial scales

Nipah virus (NiV), a highly lethal virus in humans, circulates silently in Pteropus bats throughout South and Southeast Asia. Difficulty in obtaining genomes from bats means we have a poor understanding of NiV diversity, including how many lineages circulate within a roost and the spread of NiV over increasing spatial scales. Here we develop phylogenetic approaches applied to the most comprehensive collection of genomes to date (N=257, 175 from bats, 73 from humans) from six countries over 22 years (1999-2020). In Bangladesh, where most human infections occur, we find evidence of increased spillover risk from one of the two co-circulating sublineages. We divide the four major NiV sublineages into 15 genetic clusters (emerged 20-44 years ago). Within any bat roost, there are an average of 2.4 co-circulating genetic clusters, rising to 5.5 clusters at areas of 1,500-2,000 km2. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation fit to a spatial signature of viral diversity, we estimate that each genetic cluster occupies an average area of 1.3 million km2 (95%CI: 0.6-2.3 million), with 14 clusters in an area of 100,000 km2 (95%CI: 6-24). In the few sites in Bangladesh and Cambodia where genomic surveillance has been concentrated, we estimate that most of the genetic clusters have been identified, but only ~15% of overall NiV diversity has been uncovered. Our findings are consistent with entrenched co-circulation of distinct lineages, even within individual roosts, coupled with slow migration over larger spatial scales.

Bayesian phylodynamic analysis reveals the evolutionary history and the dispersal patterns of citrus tristeza virus in China based on the p25 gene

BACKGROUND

Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) is one of the most serious threats to the citrus industry, and is present in both wild and cultivated citrus. The origin and dispersal patterns of CTV is still poorly understood in China.

METHODS

In this study, 524 CTV suspected citrus samples from China were collected, including 354 cultivated citrus samples and 174 wild citrus samples. Finally, 126 CTV coat protein sequences were obtained with time-stamped from 10 citrus origins in China. Bayesian phylodynamic inference were performed for CTV origin and dispersal patterns study in China.

RESULT

We found that CTV was mainly distributed in southern and coastal areas of China. The substitution rate of CTV was 4.70 × 10- 4 subs/site/year (95% credibility interval: 1.10 × 10- 4 subs/site/year ~ 9.10 × 10- 4 subs/site/year), with a slight increasing trend in CTV populations between 1990 and 2006. The CTV isolates in China shared a most common recent ancestor around 1875 (95% credibility interval: 1676.57 ~ 1961.02). The CTV in China was originated from wild citrus in Hunan and Jiangxi, and then spread from the wild citrus to cultivated citrus in the growing regions of Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangxi and Guangdong provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has proved that CTV in China was originated from wild citrus in Hunan and Jiangxi. The spatial-temporal distribution and dispersal patterns has uncovered the population and pandemic history of CTV, providing hints toward a better understanding of the spread and origin of CTV in China.

Inferring Evolutionary Timescale of Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever Virus

Until 2020, there were only three original complete genome (CG) nucleotide sequences of Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus (OHFV) in GenBank. For this reason, the evolutionary rate and divergence time assessments reported in the literature were based on the E gene sequences, but notably without temporal signal evaluation, such that their reliability is unclear. As of July 2022, 47 OHFV CG sequences have been published, which enables testing of temporal signal in the data and inferring unbiased and reliable substitution rate and divergence time values. Regression analysis in the TempEst software demonstrated a stronger clocklike behavior in OHFV samples for the complete open reading frame (ORF) data set (R² = 0.42) than for the E gene data set (R² = 0.11). Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal indicated very strong evidence, with a log Bayes factor of more than 5, in favor of temporal signal in all data sets. Our results based on the complete ORF sequences showed a more precise OHFV substitution rate (95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 9.1 × 10^-5-1.8 × 10^-4 substitutions per site per year) and tree root height (416-896 years ago) compared with previous assessments. The rate obtained is significantly higher than tick-borne encephalitis virus by at least 3.8-fold. The phylogenetic analysis and past population dynamics reconstruction revealed the declining trend of OHFV genetic diversity, but there was phylogenomic evidence that implicit virus subpopulations evolved locally and underwent an exponential growth phase.

Phylogenomic insights into evolutionary trajectories of multidrug resistant S. pneumoniae CC271 over a period of 14 years in China

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a gram-positive opportunistic pathogen, and infection risks of S. pneumoniae can be profoundly augmented by its acquired multidrug-resistance (MDR). The rapid development of MDR in S. pneumoniae was attributed to the international dissemination of a small number of multidrug-resistant "clones." Clonal complex (CC) 271 is a prevalent MDR CC in the world and the most prevalent CC in China. However, the evolutionary trajectories of multidrug-resistant S. pneumoniae CC271 in China still are largely unknown.

METHODS

We investigated a collection of 1312 S. pneumoniae isolates collected from 28 tertiary hospitals in China from 2007 to 2020. Recombination prediction and recombination-masked phylogenetic analysis were combined to determine the population structure and mode of evolution of CC271. Data from the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing program (GPS) were combined to understand the global distribution of clones identified in this study. Bayesian analysis were recruited to analysis the evolutionary dynamics of dominant clones within CC271 in China.

RESULTS

The phylogenomic analysis resulted in the discovery of two globally distributed clones, ST271-A and ST271-B. ST271-A was a derivative of ST236 and an ancestor of ST271-B and ST320, refining the internal phylogenetic relationship of CC271. ST271-B was the most dominant clone in China, with higher β-lactam resistance especially for cephalosporins comparing to other MDR clones. Bayesian skyline plot showed a rapid expansion of 19F ST271-B from 1995 to 2000, which correlates with the widespread use of cephalosporins in the 1990s in China. 19A ST320, a vaccine-escape clone, is the second largest population in China. The Bayesian skyline plot showed that the 19A ST320 began to expand rapidly around 2001, which appeared to coincide with the prevalence of 19A after application of PCV7 in 2000 in the USA. We also observed frequent transmission of 19A ST320 between countries. It suggests that mass vaccination in some countries could affect the prevalence of clones in unvaccinated countries in the context of high-frequency international transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results refined the internal phylogenetic relationship of CC271, showing that the 19F ST271-B and 19A ST320 evolved independently from ST271-A, with different histories and driving forces for their evolution and dissemination in China.

A 14th century CE Brucella melitensis genome and the recent expansion of the Western Mediterranean clade

Brucellosis is a disease caused by the bacterium Brucella and typically transmitted through contact with infected ruminants. It is one of the most common chronic zoonotic diseases and of particular interest to public health agencies. Despite its well-known transmission history and characteristic symptoms, we lack a more complete understanding of the evolutionary history of its best-known species-Brucella melitensis. To address this knowledge gap we fortuitously found, sequenced and assembled a high-quality ancient B. melitensis draft genome from the kidney stone of a 14th-century Italian friar. The ancient strain contained fewer core genes than modern B. melitensis isolates, carried a complete complement of virulence genes, and did not contain any indication of significant antimicrobial resistances. The ancient B. melitensis genome fell as a basal sister lineage to a subgroup of B. melitensis strains within the Western Mediterranean phylogenetic group, with a short branch length indicative of its earlier sampling time, along with a similar gene content. By calibrating the molecular clock we suggest that the speciation event between B. melitensis and B. abortus is contemporaneous with the estimated time frame for the domestication of both sheep and goats. These results confirm the existence of the Western Mediterranean clade as a separate group in the 14th CE and suggest that its divergence was due to human and ruminant co-migration.

The tumour is in the detail: Local phylogenetic, population and epidemiological dynamics of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils

Infectious diseases are a major threat for biodiversity conservation and can exert strong influence on wildlife population dynamics. Understanding the mechanisms driving infection rates and epidemic outcomes requires empirical data on the evolutionary trajectory of pathogens and host selective processes. Phylodynamics is a robust framework to understand the interaction of pathogen evolutionary processes with epidemiological dynamics, providing a powerful tool to evaluate disease control strategies. Tasmanian devils have been threatened by a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), for more than two decades. Here we employ a phylodynamic approach using tumour mitochondrial genomes to assess the role of tumour genetic diversity in epidemiological and population dynamics in a devil population subject to 12 years of intensive monitoring, since the beginning of the epidemic outbreak. DFTD molecular clock estimates of disease introduction mirrored observed estimates in the field, and DFTD genetic diversity was positively correlated with estimates of devil population size. However, prevalence and force of infection were the lowest when devil population size and tumour genetic diversity was the highest. This could be due to either differential virulence or transmissibility in tumour lineages or the development of host defence strategies against infection. Our results support the view that evolutionary processes and epidemiological trade-offs can drive host-pathogen coexistence, even when disease-induced mortality is extremely high. We highlight the importance of integrating pathogen and population evolutionary interactions to better understand long-term epidemic dynamics and evaluating disease control strategies.

Phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of plague in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases.

Phylogeographic reconstruction of the emergence and spread of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States

Powassan virus is an emerging tick-borne virus of concern for public health, but very little is known about its transmission patterns and ecology. Here, we expanded the genomic dataset by sequencing 279 Powassan viruses isolated from Ixodes scapularis ticks from the northeastern United States. Our phylogeographic reconstructions revealed that Powassan virus lineage II was likely introduced or emerged from a relict population in the Northeast between 1940 and 1975. Sequences strongly clustered by sampling location, suggesting a highly focal geographical distribution. Our analyses further indicated that Powassan virus lineage II emerged in the northeastern United States mostly following a south-to-north pattern, with a weighted lineage dispersal velocity of ~3 km/y. Since the emergence in the Northeast, we found an overall increase in the effective population size of Powassan virus lineage II, but with growth stagnating during recent years. The cascading effect of population expansion of white-tailed deer and I. scapularis populations likely facilitated the emergence of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States.

Ancient DNA of narrow-headed vole reveal common features of the Late Pleistocene population dynamics in cold-adapted small mammals

The narrow-headed vole, collared lemming and common vole were the most abundant small mammal species across the Eurasian Late Pleistocene steppe-tundra environment. Previous ancient DNA studies of the collared lemming and common vole have revealed dynamic population histories shaped by climatic fluctuations. To investigate the extent to which species with similar adaptations share common evolutionary histories, we generated a dataset comprised the mitochondrial genomes of 139 ancient and 6 modern narrow-headed voles from several sites across Europe and northwestern Asia covering approximately the last 100 thousand years (kyr). We inferred Bayesian time-aware phylogenies using 11 radiocarbon-dated samples to calibrate the molecular clock. Divergence of the main mtDNA lineages across the three species occurred during marine isotope stages (MIS) 7 and MIS 5, suggesting a common response of species adapted to open habitat during interglacials. We identified several time-structured mtDNA lineages in European narrow-headed vole, suggesting lineage turnover. The timing of some of these turnovers was synchronous across the three species, allowing us to identify the main drivers of the Late Pleistocene dynamics of steppe- and cold-adapted species.

Emergence, continuity, and evolution of Yersinia pestis throughout medieval and early modern Denmark

The historical epidemiology of plague is controversial due to the scarcity and ambiguity of available data.^1,2 A common source of debate is the extent and pattern of plague re-emergence and local continuity in Europe during the 14th-18th century CE.³ Despite having a uniquely long history of plague (∼5,000 years), Scandinavia is relatively underrepresented in the historical archives.^4,5 To better understand the historical epidemiology and evolutionary history of plague in this region, we performed in-depth (n = 298) longitudinal screening (800 years) for the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) across 13 archaeological sites in Denmark from 1000 to 1800 CE. Our genomic and phylogenetic data captured the emergence, continuity, and evolution of Y. pestis in this region over a period of 300 years (14th-17th century CE), for which the plague-positivity rate was 8.3% (3.3%-14.3% by site). Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that the Danish Y. pestis sequences were interspersed with those from other European countries, rather than forming a single cluster, indicative of the generation, spread, and replacement of bacterial variants through communities rather than their long-term local persistence. These results provide an epidemiological link between Y. pestis and the unknown pestilence that afflicted medieval and early modern Europe. They also demonstrate how population-scale genomic evidence can be used to test hypotheses on disease mortality and epidemiology and help pave the way for the next generation of historical disease research.

Dates and Rates of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus-The Slowest Changing Tick-Borne Flavivirus

We evaluated the temporal signal and substitution rate of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) using 276 complete open reading frame (ORF) sequences with known collection dates. According to a permutation test, the TBEV Siberian subtype (TBEV-S) data set has no temporal structure and cannot be applied for substitution rate estimation without other TBEV subtypes. The substitution rate obtained suggests that the common clade of TBEV (TBEV-common), including all TBEV subtypes and louping-ill virus (LIV), is characterized by the lowest rate (1.87 × 10^-5 substitutions per site per year (s/s/y) or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 4.9 years; 95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 1.3-2.4 × 10^-5 s/s/y) among all tick-borne flaviviruses previously assessed. Within TBEV-common, the TBEV European subtype (TBEV-E) has the lowest substitution rate (1.3 × 10^-5 s/s/y or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 7.5 years; 95% HPD, 1.0-1.8 × 10^-5 s/s/y) as compared with TBEV Far-Eastern subtype (3.0 × 10^-5 s/s/y or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 3.2 years; 95% HPD, 1.6-4.5 × 10^-5 s/s/y). TBEV-common representing the species tick-borne encephalitis virus diverged 9623 years ago (95% HPD interval, 6373-13,208 years). The TBEV Baikalian subtype is the youngest one (489 years; 95% HPD, 291-697 years) which differs significantly by age from TBEV-E (848 years; 95% HPD, 596-1112 years), LIV (2424 years; 95% HPD, 1572-3400 years), TBEV-FE (1936 years, 95% HPD, 1344-2598 years), and the joint clade of TBEV-S (2505 years, 95% HPD, 1700-3421 years) comprising Vasilchenko, Zausaev, and Baltic lineages.

Plagued by a cryptic clock: insight and issues from the global phylogeny of Yersinia pestis

Plague has an enigmatic history as a zoonotic pathogen. This infectious disease will unexpectedly appear in human populations and disappear just as suddenly. As a result, a long-standing line of inquiry has been to estimate when and where plague appeared in the past. However, there have been significant disparities between phylogenetic studies of the causative bacterium, Yersinia pestis, regarding the timing and geographic origins of its reemergence. Here, we curate and contextualize an updated phylogeny of Y. pestis using 601 genome sequences sampled globally. Through a detailed Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal in subsets of these data we demonstrate that a Y. pestis-wide molecular clock is unstable. To resolve this, we developed a new approach in which each Y. pestis population was assessed independently, enabling us to recover substantial temporal signal in five populations, including the ancient pandemic lineages which we now estimate may have emerged decades, or even centuries, before a pandemic was historically documented from European sources. Despite this methodological advancement, we only obtain robust divergence dates from populations sampled over a period of at least 90 years, indicating that genetic evidence alone is insufficient for accurately reconstructing the timing and spread of short-term plague epidemics.

Phylostems: a new graphical tool to investigate temporal signal of heterochronous sequences datasets

Motivation

Molecular tip-dating of phylogenetic trees is a growing discipline that uses DNA sequences sampled at different points in time to co-estimate the timing of evolutionary events with rates of molecular evolution. Importantly, such inferences should only be performed on datasets displaying sufficient temporal signal, a feature important to test prior to any tip-dating inference. For this purpose, the most popular method considered to-date has been the 'root-to-tip regression' which consist in fitting a linear regression of the number of substitutions accumulated from the root to the tips of a phylogenetic tree as a function of sampling times. The main limitation of the regression method, in its current implementation, relies in the fact that the temporal signal can only be tested at the whole-tree scale (i.e. its root).

Results

To overcome this limitation we introduce Phylostems, a new graphical user-friendly tool developed to investigate temporal signal within every clade of a phylogenetic tree. We provide a 'how to' guide by running Phylostems on an empirical dataset and supply guidance for results interpretation.

Availability and implementation

Phylostems is freely available at https://pvbmt-apps.cirad.fr/apps/phylostems.

Evolutionary history and global spatiotemporal pattern of alfalfa mosaic virus

Alfalfa mosaic virus (AMV) is an important plant virus causing considerable economic loss to alfalfa production. Knowledge of the evolutionary and demographic history of the pathogen is limited but essential to the development of effective and sustainable pathogen management schemes. In this study, we performed worldwide phylodynamic analyses of AMV based on 154 nucleotide sequences of the coat protein gene, sampled from 1985 to 2020, to understand the epidemiology of this pathogen. Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction estimates that the crown group of AMV dates back to 1840 (95% credibility interval, 1687-1955). We revealed that AMV continuously evolves at a rate of 4.14 × 10^-4 substitutions/site/year (95% credibility interval, 1.04 × 10^-4 - 6.68 × 10^-4). Our phylogeographic analyses identified multiple migration links between Europe and other regions, implying that Europe played a key role in spreading the virus worldwide. Further analyses showed that the clustering pattern of AMV isolates is significantly correlated to geographic regions, indicating that geography-driven adaptation may be a factor that affects the evolution of AMV. Our findings may be potentially used in the development of effective control strategies for AMV.

The Evolution and Global Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Senecavirus A

Recurrent outbreaks of senecavirus A (SVA)-associated vesicular disease have led to a large number of infected pigs being culled and has caused considerable economic losses to the swine industry. Although SVA was discovered 2 decades ago, knowledge about the evolutionary and transmission histories of SVA remains unclear. Herein, we performed an integrated analysis of the recombination, phylogeny, selection, and spatiotemporal dynamics of SVA. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that SVA diverged into two main branches, clade I (pre-2007 strains) and clade II (post-2007 strains). Importantly, analysis of selective strength showed that clade II was evolving under relaxed selection compared with clade I. Positive selection analysis identified 27 positive selective sites, most of which are located on the outer surface of capsid protomer or on the important functional domains of nonstructure proteins. Bayesian phylodynamics suggested that the estimated time to the most recent common ancestor of SVA was around 1986, and the estimated substitution rate of SVA was 3.3522 × 10-3 nucleotide substitutions/site/year. Demographic history analysis revealed that the effective population size of SVA has experienced a gradually increasing trend with slight fluctuation until 2017 followed by a sharp decline. Notably, Bayesian phylogeographic analysis inferred that Brazil might be the source of SVA's global transmission since 2015. In summary, these data illustrated that the ongoing evolution of SVA drove the lineage-specific innovation and potentially phenotypically important variation. Our study sheds new light on the fundamental understanding of SVA evolution and spread history. IMPORTANCE Recurrent outbreaks and global epidemics of senecavirus A-associated vesicular disease have caused heavy economic losses and have threatened the development of the pig industry. However, the question of where the virus comes from has been one of the biggest puzzles due to the stealthy nature of the virus. Consequently, tracing the source, evolution, and transmission pattern of SVA is a very challenging task. Based on the most comprehensive analysis, we revealed the origin time, rapid evolution, epidemic dynamics, and selection of SVA. We observed two main genetic branches, clade I (pre-2007 strains) and clade II (post-2007 strains), and described the epidemiological patterns of SVA in different countries. We also first identified Brazil as the source of SVA's global transmission since 2015. Findings in this study provide important implications for the control and prevention of the virus.

Analysis of the genome of grapevine red blotch virus and related grabloviruses indicates diversification prior to the arrival of Vitis vinifera in North America

In this study 163 complete whole-genome sequences of the emerging pathogen grapevine red blotch virus (GRBV; genus Grablovirus, family Geminiviridae) were used to reconstruct phylogenies using Bayesian analyses on time-tipped (heterochronous) data. Using different combinations of priors, Bayes factors identified heterochronous datasets (3×200 million chains) generated from strict clock and exponential tree priors as being the most robust. Substitution rates of 3.2×10^-5 subsitutions per site per year (95% HPD 4.3-2.1×10^-5) across the whole of the GRBV genome were estimated, suggesting ancestral GRBV diverged from ancestral wild Vitis latent virus 1 around 9 000 years ago, well before the first documented arrival of Vitis vinifera in North America. Whole-genome analysis of GRBV isolates in a single infected field-grown grapevine across 12 years identified 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms none of which were fixed substitutions: an observation not discordant with the in silico estimate. The substitution rate estimated here is lower than those estimated for other geminiviruses and is the first for a woody-host-infecting geminivirus.

Exploring the Emergence and Evolution of Plant Pathogenic Microbes Using Historical and Paleontological Sources

Biotechnological advances now permit broad exploration of past microbial communities preserved in diverse substrates. Despite biomolecular degradation, high-throughput sequencing of preserved materials can yield invaluable genomic and metagenomic data from the past. This line of research has expanded from its initial human- and animal-centric foci to include plant-associated microbes (viruses, archaea, bacteria, fungi, and oomycetes), for which historical, archaeological, and paleontological data illuminate past epidemics and evolutionary history. Genetic mechanisms underlying the acquisition of microbial pathogenicity, including hybridization, polyploidization, and horizontal gene transfer, can now be reconstructed, as can gene-for-gene coevolution with plant hosts. Epidemiological parameters, such as geographic origin and range expansion, can also be assessed. Building on published case studies with individual phytomicrobial taxa, the stage is now set for broader, community-wide studies of preserved plant microbiomes to strengthen mechanistic understanding of microbial interactions and plant disease emergence.

The Diversity and Spatiotemporally Evolutionary Dynamic of Atypical Porcine Pestivirus in China

The presence of congenital tremor (CT) type A-II in newborn piglets, caused by atypical porcine pestivirus (APPV), has been a focus since 2016. However, the source, evolutionary history, and transmission pattern of APPV in China remain poorly understood. In this study, we undertook phylogenetic analyses based on available complete E2 gene sequences along with 98 newly sequenced E2 genes between 2016 and 2020 in China within the context of global genetic diversity. The phylogenies revealed four distinct lineages of APPV, and interestingly, all lineages could be detected in China with the greatest diversity. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses showed that the E2 gene evolves at a mean rate of 1.22 × 10⁻³ (8.54 × 10⁻⁴-1.60 × 10⁻³) substitutions/site/year. The most recent common ancestor for APPVs is dated to 1886 (1837–1924) CE, somewhat earlier than the documented emergence of CT (1922 CE). Our phylogeographic analyses suggested that the APPV population possibly originated in the Netherlands, a country with developed livestock husbandry, and was introduced into China during the period 1837–2010. Guangdong, as a primary seeding population together with Central and Southwest China as epidemic linkers, was responsible for the dispersal of APPVs in China. The transmission pattern of “China lineages” (lineage 3 and lineage 4) presented a “south to north” movement tendency, which was likely associated with the implementation of strict environmental policy in China since 2000. Reconstruction of demographic history showed that APPV population size experienced multiple changes, which correlated well with the dynamic of the number of pigs in the past decades in China. Besides, positively selected pressure and geography-driven adaptation were supposed to be key factors for the diversification of APPV lineages. Our findings provide comprehensive insights into the diversity and spatiotemporal dynamic of APPV in China.

Identification of Coronaviruses in Farmed Wild Animals Reveals their Evolutionary Origins in Guangdong, Southern China

Coronavirus infections cause diseases that range from mild to severe in mammals and birds. In this study, we detected coronavirus infections in 748 farmed wild animals of 23 species in Guangdong, southern China, by RT-PCR and metagenomic analysis. We identified four coronaviruses in these wild animals and analysed their evolutionary origins. Coronaviruses detected in Rhizomys sinensis were genetically grouped into canine and rodent coronaviruses, which were likely recombinants of canine and rodent coronaviruses. The coronavirus found in Phasianus colchicus was a recombinant pheasant coronavirus of turkey coronavirus and infectious bronchitis virus. The coronavirus in Paguma larvata had a high nucleotide identity (94.6–98.5 per cent) with a coronavirus of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncates). These findings suggested that the wildlife coronaviruses may have experienced homologous recombination and/or crossed the species barrier, likely resulting in the emergence of new coronaviruses. It is necessary to reduce human–animal interactions by prohibiting the eating and raising of wild animals, which may contribute to preventing the emergence of the next coronavirus pandemic.

Analysis of the global origin, evolution and transmission dynamics of the emerging novel variant IBDV (A2dB1b): The accumulation of critical aa-residue mutations and commercial trade contributes to the emergence and transmission of novel variants

The Chinese IBDV novel variant (nvIBDV), belonging to the genotype A2dB1b, an emerging pathotype that can cause subclinical disease with severe, prolonged immunosuppression, poses a new threat to the poultry industry. The process of the global origin, evolution and transmission dynamics of nvIBDV, however, is poorly understood. In this study, phylogenetic trees, site substitutions of amino acid (aa) and highly accurate protein structure modelling, selection pressure, evolutionary and transmission dynamics of nvIBDV were analysed. Interestingly, nvIBDV was classified into the same genogroup with the early US antigenic variants (avIBDV) but in a new lineage with a markedly different and specific pattern of 17 aa-residual substitutions: 13 in VP2 (77D, 213N, 221K, 222T, 249K, 252I, 253Q, 254N, 284A, 286I, 299S, 318D and 323E) and four in VP1 (141I, 163V, 240E and 508K). Importantly, the aa-residues 299S and 163V may play a key role in cell binding and polymerase activity, respectively. The effective population size of the circulating avIBDV experienced two growth phases, respectively, in the years 1999-2007 (in North America) and 2015-2021 (in Asia), which is consistent with the observed trend of the epidemic outbreaks. The most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of avIBDV most first originated in the USA and was dated around the 1970s. After its emergence, the ancestor virus of this group probably spread to China around the 1990s and the variants experienced a long-term latent circulation with the accumulation of several critical aa-residue mutations in VP2 until re-emerging in 2016. At present, central China has become the epicentre of nvIBDV spread to other parts of China and Asian countries. Importantly, a strong correlation seems to exist between the transmission patterns of virus and the flow of commercial trade of live poultry and products. These findings provide important insights into the origin, evolution and transmission of the nvIBDV and will assist in the development of programs for control strategies for these emerging viruses.

Molecular Epidemiology of Porcine Parvovirus Type 1 (PPV1) and the Reactivity of Vaccine-Induced Antisera Against Historical and Current PPV1 Strains

Porcine Parvovirus Type 1 (PPV1) contributes to important losses in the swine industry worldwide. During a PPV1 infection, embryos and fetuses are targeted, resulting in stillbirth, mummification, embryonic death, and infertility (SMEDI syndrome). Even though vaccination is common in gilts and sows, strains mainly belonging to the 27a-like group have been spreading in Europe since early 2000s, resulting in SMEDI problems and requiring in-depth studies into the molecular epidemiology and vaccination efficacy of commercial vaccines. Here, we show that PPV1 has evolved since 1855 [1737, 1933] at a rate of 4.71 × 10⁻⁵ nucleotide substitutions per site per year. Extensive sequencing allowed evaluating and reassessing the current PPV1 VP1-based classifications, providing evidence for the existence of four relevant phylogenetic groups. While most European strains belong to the PPV1a (G1) or PPV1b (G2 or 27a-like) group, most Asian and American G2 strains and some European strains were divided into virulent PPV1c (e.g. NADL-8) and attenuated PPV1d (e.g. NADL-2) groups. The increase in the swine population, vaccination degree, and health management (vaccination and biosafety) influenced the spread of PPV1. The reactivity of anti-PPV1 antibodies from sows vaccinated with Porcilis^© Parvo, Eryseng^© Parvo, or ReproCyc^© ParvoFLEX against different PPV1 field strains was the highest upon vaccination with ReproCyc^© ParvoFLEX, followed by Eryseng^© Parvo, and Porcilis^© Parvo. Our findings contribute to the evaluation of the immunogenicity of existing vaccines and support the development of new vaccine candidates. Finally, the potential roles of cluster-specific hallmark amino acids in elevated pathogenicity and viral entry are discussed.

The source of the Black Death in fourteenth-century central Eurasia

The origin of the medieval Black Death pandemic (ad 1346–1353) has been a topic of continuous investigation because of the pandemic’s extensive demographic impact and long-lasting consequences^1,2. Until now, the most debated archaeological evidence potentially associated with the pandemic’s initiation derives from cemeteries located near Lake Issyk-Kul of modern-day Kyrgyzstan^1,3–9. These sites are thought to have housed victims of a fourteenth-century epidemic as tombstone inscriptions directly dated to 1338–1339 state ‘pestilence’ as the cause of death for the buried individuals⁹. Here we report ancient DNA data from seven individuals exhumed from two of these cemeteries, Kara-Djigach and Burana. Our synthesis of archaeological, historical and ancient genomic data shows a clear involvement of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis in this epidemic event. Two reconstructed ancient Y. pestis genomes represent a single strain and are identified as the most recent common ancestor of a major diversification commonly associated with the pandemic’s emergence, here dated to the first half of the fourteenth century. Comparisons with present-day diversity from Y. pestis reservoirs in the extended Tian Shan region support a local emergence of the recovered ancient strain. Through multiple lines of evidence, our data support an early fourteenth-century source of the second plague pandemic in central Eurasia.

Phylogeny, Evolution, and Transmission Dynamics of Canine and Feline Coronaviruses: A Retro-Prospective Study

Canine coronavirus (CCoV) and feline coronavirus (FCoV) are endemic in companion animals. Due to their high mutation rates and tendencies of genome recombination, they pose potential threats to public health. The molecular characteristics and genetic variation of both CCoV and FCoV have been thoroughly studied, but their origin and evolutionary dynamics still require further assessment. In the present study, we applied a comprehensive approach and analyzed the S, M, and N genes of different CCoV/FCoV isolates. Discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and phylogenetic analysis showed that the FCoV sequences from Chinese isolates were closely related to the FCoV clusters in Netherlands, while recombination analysis indicated that of S N-terminal domain (NTD) was the most susceptible region of mutation, and recombination of this region is an important cause of the emergence of new lineages. Natural selection showed that CCoV and FCoV subgenotypes were in selection constraints, and CCoV-IIb was in strong positive selection. Phylodynamics showed that the mean evolution rate of S1 genes of CCoV and FCoV was 1.281 × 10^–3 and 1.244 × 10^–3 subs/site/year, respectively, and the tMRCA of CCoV and FCoV was about 1901 and 1822, respectively. Taken together, our study centered on tracing the origin of CCoV/FCoV and provided ample insights into the phylogeny and evolution of canine and feline coronaviruses.

On the Origin and Propagation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Italian Province of Trento, a Tourist Region of Northern Italy

Background: Trentino is an Italian province with a tourism-based economy, bordering the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where the two earliest and largest outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in Italy. The earliest cases in Trentino were reported in the first week of March 2020, with most of the cases occurring in the winter sport areas in the Dolomites mountain range. The number of reported cases decreased over the summer months and was followed by a second wave in the autumn and winter of 2020. Methods: we performed high-coverage Oxford Nanopore sequencing of 253 positive SARS-CoV-2 swabs collected in Trentino between March and December 2020. Results: in this work, we analyzed genome sequences to trace the routes through which the virus entered the area, and assessed whether the autumnal resurgence could be attributed to lineages persisting undetected during summer, or as a consequence of new introductions. Conclusions: Comparing the draft genomes analyzed with a large selection of European sequences retrieved from GISAID we found that multiple introductions of the virus occurred at the early stage of the epidemics; the two epidemic waves were unrelated; the second wave was due to reintroductions of the virus in summer when traveling restrictions were uplifted.

Role of mobile genetic elements in the global dissemination of the carbapenem resistance gene blaNDM

The mobile resistance gene blaNDM encodes the NDM enzyme which hydrolyses carbapenems, a class of antibiotics used to treat some of the most severe bacterial infections. The blaNDM gene is globally distributed across a variety of Gram-negative bacteria on multiple plasmids, typically located within highly recombining and transposon-rich genomic regions, which leads to the dynamics underlying the global dissemination of blaNDM to remain poorly resolved. Here, we compile a dataset of over 6000 bacterial genomes harbouring the blaNDM gene, including 104 newly generated PacBio hybrid assemblies from clinical and livestock-associated isolates across China. We develop a computational approach to track structural variants surrounding blaNDM, which allows us to identify prevalent genomic contexts, mobile genetic elements, and likely events in the gene's global spread. We estimate that blaNDM emerged on a Tn125 transposon before 1985, but only reached global prevalence around a decade after its first recorded observation in 2005. The Tn125 transposon seems to have played an important role in early plasmid-mediated jumps of blaNDM, but was overtaken in recent years by other elements including IS26-flanked pseudo-composite transposons and Tn3000. We found a strong association between blaNDM-carrying plasmid backbones and the sampling location of isolates. This observation suggests that the global dissemination of the blaNDM gene was primarily driven by successive between-plasmid transposon jumps, with far more restricted subsequent plasmid exchange, possibly due to adaptation of plasmids to their specific bacterial hosts.

Phylogeography and evolutionary dynamics analysis of porcine delta-coronavirus with host expansion to humans

From 2003 onwards, three pandemics have been caused by coronaviruses: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV); middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV); and, most recently, SARS-CoV-2. Notably, all three were transmitted from animals to humans. This would suggest that animals are potential sources of epidemics for humans. The emerging porcine delta-coronavirus was reported to infect children. This is a red flag that marks the ability of PDCoV to break barriers of cross-species transmission to humans. Therefore, we conducted molecular genetic analysis of global clade PDCoV to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of viral diffusion and genetic diversity. PDCoV was classified into three major lineages, according to distribution and phylogenetic analysis of PDCoV. It can be inferred based on the analysis results of the currently known PDCoV strains that PDCoV might originate in Asia. We also selected six special spike amino acid sequences to align and analyze to find seven significant mutation sites. The accumulation of these mutations may enhance dynamic movements, accelerating spike protein membrane fusion events and transmission. Altogether, our study offers a novel insight into the diversification, evolution, and interspecies transmission and origin of PDCoV and emphasizes the need to study the zoonotic potential of the PDCoV and comprehensive surveillance and enhanced biosecurity precautions for PDCoV. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Phylodynamic inference of bacterial outbreak parameters using nanopore sequencing

Nanopore sequencing and phylodynamic modeling have been used to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of viral epidemics, but their application to bacterial pathogens has remained challenging. Cost-effective bacterial genome sequencing and variant calling on nanopore platforms would greatly enhance surveillance and outbreak response in communities without access to sequencing infrastructure. Here, we adapt random forest models for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) polishing developed by Sanderson and colleagues (2020. High precision Neisseria gonorrhoeae variant and antimicrobial resistance calling from metagenomic nanopore sequencing. Genome Res. 30(9):1354–1363) to estimate divergence and effective reproduction numbers (R_e) of two methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks from remote communities in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea (PNG; n = 159). Successive barcoded panels of S. aureus isolates (2 × 12 per MinION) sequenced at low coverage (>5× to 10×) provided sufficient data to accurately infer genotypes with high recall when compared with Illumina references. Random forest models achieved high resolution on ST93 outbreak sequence types (>90% accuracy and precision) and enabled phylodynamic inference of epidemiological parameters using birth–death skyline models. Our method reproduced phylogenetic topology, origin of the outbreaks, and indications of epidemic growth (R_e > 1). Nextflow pipelines implement SNP polisher training, evaluation, and outbreak alignments, enabling reconstruction of within-lineage transmission dynamics for infection control of bacterial disease outbreaks on portable nanopore platforms. Our study shows that nanopore technology can be used for bacterial outbreak reconstruction at competitive costs, providing opportunities for infection control in hospitals and communities without access to sequencing infrastructure, such as in remote northern Australia and PNG.

SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility compared between variants of concern and vaccination status

Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late 2019, several variants of concern (VOC) have been reported to have increased transmissibility. In addition, despite the progress of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, all vaccines currently in used are known to protect only partially from infection and onward transmission. We combined phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to infer the reproduction number (Rt) and also trace person-to-person transmission. We examined the impact of phylogenetic uncertainty and sampling bias on the estimation. Our result indicated that lineage B had a significantly higher transmissibility than lineage A and contributed to the global pandemic to a large extent. In addition, although the transmissibility of VOCs is higher than other exponentially growing lineages, this difference is not very high. The probability of detecting onward transmission from patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 VOCs who had received at least one dose of vaccine was approximate 1.06% (3/284), which was slightly lower but not statistically significantly different from a probability of 1.21% (10/828) for unvaccinated individuals. In addition to VOCs, exponentially growing lineages in each country should also be account for when tailoring prevention and control strategies. One dose of vaccination could not efficiently prevent the onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs. Consequently, nonpharmaceutical interventions (such as wearing masks and social distancing) should still be implemented in each country during the vaccination period.

Phylogeography and Re-Evaluation of Evolutionary Rate of Powassan Virus Using Complete Genome Data

Simple Summary

The evolution of human pathogenic viruses is one of the pressing problems of modern biology and directly relevant to public health. Many important aspects of virus evolution (e.g., evolutionary rate, population size, and migration history) are ‘hidden’ from the naked eye of a researcher. Modern bioinformatics methods make it possible to evaluate and visualize such evolutionary particularities of viruses. In this paper, we reconstructed the migration history and estimated the evolutionary rate of one of the most dangerous neuroinvasive and neurotropic tick-borne flaviviruses—Powassan virus (POWV)—distributed in North America and the Far East of Russia. Using the dates obtained, we hypothesized that the divergence of the most recent common ancestor of POWV into two independent genetic lineages most likely occurred because of the melting of glaciers that began at 11.72 Kya in the Holocene due to the climate warming-caused flooding of the isthmus between Eurasia and North America.

Abstract

In this paper, we revealed the genetic structure and migration history of the Powassan virus (POWV) reconstructed based on 25 complete genomes available in NCBI and ViPR databases (accessed in June 2021). The usage of this data set allowed us to perform a more precise assessment of the evolutionary rate of this virus. In addition, we proposed a simple Bayesian technique for the evaluation and visualization of ‘temporal signal dynamics’ along the phylogenetic tree. We showed that the evolutionary rate value of POWV is 3.3 × 10⁻⁵ nucleotide substitution per site per year (95% HPD, 2.0 × 10⁻⁵–4.7 × 10⁻⁵), which is lower than values reported in the previous studies. Divergence of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of POWV into two independent genetic lineages most likely occurred in the period between 2600 and 6030 years ago. We assume that the divergence of the virus lineages happened due to the melting of glaciers about 12,000 years ago, which led to the disappearance of the Bering Land Bridge between Eurasia and North America (the modern Alaskan territory) and spatial division of the viral areal into two parts. Genomic data provide evidence of the virus migrations between two continents. The mean migration rate detected from the Far East of Russia to North America was one event per 1750 years. The migration to the opposite direction occurred approximately once per 475 years.

The Tien Shan vole (Microtus ilaeus; Rodentia: Cricetidae) as a new species in the Late Pleistocene of Europe

Grey voles (subgenus Microtus) represent a complex of at least seven closely related and partly cryptic species. The range of these species extends from the Atlantic to the Altai Mountains, but most of them occur east of the Black Sea. Using ancient DNA analyses of the Late Pleistocene specimens, we identified a new mtDNA lineage of grey voles in Europe. Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b sequences from 23 voles from three caves, namely, Emine-Bair-Khosar (Crimea, Ukraine), Cave 16 (Bulgaria), and Bacho Kiro (Bulgaria), showed that 14 specimens form a previously unrecognized lineage, sister to the Tien Shan vole. The average sequence divergence of this lineage and the extant Tien Shan vole was 4.8%, which is similar to the divergence of grey vole forms, which are considered distinct species or being on the verge of speciation; M. arvalis and M. obscurus or M. mystacinus and M. rossiaemeridionalis. We estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor of the grey voles to be 0.66 Ma, which is over twice the recent estimates, while the divergence of the extant Tien Shan vole and the new lineage to be 0.29 Ma. Our discovery suggests that grey voles may have been more diversified in the past and that their ranges may have differed substantially from current ones. It also underlines the utility of ancient DNA to decipher the evolutionary history of voles.

Molecular archeology of human viruses

The evolution of human-virus associations is usually reconstructed from contemporary patterns of genomic diversity. An intriguing, though still rarely implemented, alternative is to search for the genetic material of viruses in archeological and medical archive specimens to document evolution as it happened. In this chapter, we present lessons from ancient DNA research and incorporate insights from virology to explore the potential range of applications and likely limitations of archeovirological approaches. We also highlight the numerous questions archeovirology will hopefully allow us to tackle in the near future, and the main expected roadblocks to these avenues of research.

Ten millennia of hepatitis B virus evolution

[Figure: see text].

Spatiotemporal Phylodynamics of Hepatitis C Among People Who Inject Drugs in India

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Implementing effective interventions for HCV requires a detailed understanding of local transmission dynamics and geospatial spread. Little is known about HCV phylodynamics, particularly among high-burden populations, such as people who inject drugs (PWID).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We used 483 HCV sequences and detailed individual-level data from PWID across four Indian cities. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were used to evaluate transmission hotspots and geospatial diffusion of the virus. Phylogenetic cluster analysis was performed to infer epidemiologic links and factors associated with clustering. A total of 492 HIV sequences were used to draw comparisons within the same population and, in the case of coinfections, evaluate molecular evidence for shared transmission pathways. Overall, 139/483 (28.8%) of HCV sequences clustered with a median cluster size of 3 individuals. Genetically linked participants with HCV were significantly younger and more likely to be infected with HCV subtype 3b as well as to live and inject close to one another. Phylogenetic evidence suggests likely ongoing HCV infection/reinfection with limited support for shared HIV/HCV transmission pathways. Phylogeographic analyses trace historic HCV spread back to Northeastern India and show diffusion patterns consistent with drug trafficking routes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study characterizes HCV phylodynamics among PWID in a low and middle-income country setting. Heterogeneity and recent genetic linkage of HCV across geographically disparate Indian states suggest that targeted interventions could help prevent reimportation of virus through drug trafficking routes.

Genomic population structure associated with repeated escape of Salmonella enterica ATCC14028s from the laboratory into nature

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain ATCC14028s is commercially available from multiple national type culture collections, and has been widely used since 1960 for quality control of growth media and experiments on fitness (“laboratory evolution”). ATCC14028s has been implicated in multiple cross-contaminations in the laboratory, and has also caused multiple laboratory infections and one known attempt at bioterrorism. According to hierarchical clustering of 3002 core gene sequences, ATCC14028s belongs to HierCC cluster HC20_373 in which most internal branch lengths are only one to three SNPs long. Many natural Typhimurium isolates from humans, domesticated animals and the environment also belong to HC20_373, and their core genomes are almost indistinguishable from those of laboratory strains. These natural isolates have infected humans in Ireland and Taiwan for decades, and are common in the British Isles as well as the Americas. The isolation history of some of the natural isolates confirms the conclusion that they do not represent recent contamination by the laboratory strain, and 10% carry plasmids or bacteriophages which have been acquired in nature by HGT from unrelated bacteria. We propose that ATCC14028s has repeatedly escaped from the laboratory environment into nature via laboratory accidents or infections, but the escaped micro-lineages have only a limited life span. As a result, there is a genetic gap separating HC20_373 from its closest natural relatives due to a divergence between them in the late 19^th century followed by repeated extinction events of escaped HC20_373.

Clades of closely related bacteria exist in nature. Individual isolates from such clades are often distinguishable by genomic sequencing because genomic sequence differences can be acquired over a few years due to neutral drift and natural selection. The evolution of laboratory strains is often largely frozen, physically due to storage conditions and genetically due to long periods of storage. Thus, laboratory strains can normally be readily distinguished from natural isolates because they show much less diversity. However, laboratory strain ATCC14028s shows modest levels of sequence diversity because it has been shipped around the world to multiple laboratories and is routinely used for analyses of laboratory evolution. Closely related natural isolates also exist, but their genetic diversity is not dramatically greater at the core genome level. Indeed, many scientists doubt that such isolates are natural, and interpret them as undetected contamination by the laboratory strain. We present data indicating that ATCC14028s has repeatedly escaped from the laboratory through inadvertent contamination of the environment, infection of technical staff and deliberate bioterrorism. The escapees survive in nature long enough that some acquire mobile genomic elements by horizontal gene transfer, but eventually they go extinct. As a result, even extensive global databases of natural isolates lack closely related isolates whose ancestors diverged from ATCC14028s within the last 100 years.

Phylogenetic reconstruction of the initial stages of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the Eurasian and American continents by analyzing genomic data

Samples from complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 isolated during the first wave (December 2019–July 2020) of the global COVID-19 pandemic from 21 countries (Asia, Europe, Middle East and America) around the world, were analyzed using the phylogenetic method with molecular clock dating. Results showed that the first cases of COVID-19 in the human population appeared in the period between July and November 2019 in China. The spread of the virus into other countries of the world began in the autumn of 2019. In mid-February 2020, the virus appeared in all the countries we analyzed. During this time, the global population of SARS-CoV-2 was characterized by low levels of the genetic polymorphism, making it difficult to accurately assess the pathways of infection. The rate of evolution of the coding region of the SARS-CoV-2 genome equal to 7.3 × 10⁻⁴ (5.95 × 10⁻⁴–8.68 × 10⁻⁴) nucleotide substitutions per site per year is comparable to those of other human RNA viruses (Measles morbillivirus, Rubella virus, Enterovirus C). SARS-CoV-2 was separated from its known close relative, the bat coronavirus RaTG13 of the genus Betacoronavirus, approximately 15–43 years ago (the end of the 20th century).

On the Use of Phylogeographic Inference to Infer the Dispersal History of Rabies Virus: A Review Study

Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease which is caused by negative strand RNA-viruses belonging to the genus Lyssavirus. Within this genus, rabies viruses circulate in a diverse set of mammalian reservoir hosts, is present worldwide, and is almost always fatal in non-vaccinated humans. Approximately 59,000 people are still estimated to die from rabies each year, leading to a global initiative to work towards the goal of zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030, requiring scientific efforts from different research fields. The past decade has seen a much increased use of phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses to study the evolution and spread of rabies virus. We here review published studies in these research areas, making a distinction between the geographic resolution associated with the available sequence data. We pay special attention to environmental factors that these studies found to be relevant to the spread of rabies virus. Importantly, we highlight a knowledge gap in terms of applying these methods when all required data were available but not fully exploited. We conclude with an overview of recent methodological developments that have yet to be applied in phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses of rabies virus.