A Bayesian phylogenetic method to estimate unknown sequence ages

Mapping Transmission Dynamics and Drug Resistance Surveillance in the Cyprus HIV-1 Epidemic (2017-2021)

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic has been a major public health threat on a global scale since the early 1980s. Despite the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), the incidence of new HIV-1 infections continues to rise in some regions around the world. Thus, with the continuous transmission of HIV-1 and the lack of a cure, it is imperative for molecular epidemiological studies to be performed, to monitor the infection and ultimately be able to control the spread of this virus. This work provides a comprehensive molecular epidemiological analysis of the HIV-1 infection in Cyprus, through examining 305 HIV-1 sequences collected between 9 March 2017 and 14 October 2021. Employing advanced statistical and bioinformatic techniques, the research delved deeply into understanding the transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cyprus, as well as the monitoring of HIV-1's genetic diversity and the surveillance of transmitted drug resistance. The characterization of Cyprus's HIV-1 epidemic revealed a diverse landscape, comprising 21 HIV-1 group M pure subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), alongside numerous uncharacterized recombinant strains. Subtypes A1 and B emerged as the most prevalent strains, followed by CRF02_AG. The findings of this study also revealed high levels of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) patterns, raising concerns for the efficacy of cART. The demographic profiles of individuals involved in HIV-1 transmission underscored the disproportionate burden borne by young to middle-aged Cypriot males, particularly those in the MSM community, who reported contracting the virus in Cyprus. An assessment of the spatiotemporal evolutionary dynamics illustrated the global interconnectedness of HIV-1 transmission networks, implicating five continents in the dissemination of strains within Cyprus: Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, and Oceania. Overall, this study advances the comprehension of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cyprus and highlights the importance of understanding HIV-1's transmission dynamics through continuous surveillance efforts. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the critical role of state-of-the-art bioinformatics analyses in addressing the challenges posed by HIV-1 transmission globally, laying the groundwork for public health interventions aimed at curbing its spread and improving patient outcomes.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infections on fur farms connected to mass mortalities of black-headed gulls, Finland, July to October 2023

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has caused widespread mortality in both wild and domestic birds in Europe 2020-2023. In July 2023, HPAI A(H5N1) was detected on 27 fur farms in Finland. In total, infections in silver and blue foxes, American minks and raccoon dogs were confirmed by RT-PCR. The pathological findings in the animals include widespread inflammatory lesions in the lungs, brain and liver, indicating efficient systemic dissemination of the virus. Phylogenetic analysis of Finnish A(H5N1) strains from fur animals and wild birds has identified three clusters (Finland I-III), and molecular analyses revealed emergence of mutations known to facilitate viral adaptation to mammals in the PB2 and NA proteins. Findings of avian influenza in fur animals were spatially and temporally connected with mass mortalities in wild birds. The mechanisms of virus transmission within and between farms have not been conclusively identified, but several different routes relating to limited biosecurity on the farms are implicated. The outbreak was managed in close collaboration between animal and human health authorities to mitigate and monitor the impact for both animal and human health.

High pathogenic avian influenza A(H5) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe-Why trends of virus evolution are more difficult to predict

Since 2016, A(H5Nx) high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of clade 2.3.4.4b has become one of the most serious global threats not only to wild and domestic birds, but also to public health. In recent years, important changes in the ecology, epidemiology, and evolution of this virus have been reported, with an unprecedented global diffusion and variety of affected birds and mammalian species. After the two consecutive and devastating epidemic waves in Europe in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, with the second one recognized as one of the largest epidemics recorded so far, this clade has begun to circulate endemically in European wild bird populations. This study used the complete genomes of 1,956 European HPAI A(H5Nx) viruses to investigate the virus evolution during this varying epidemiological outline. We investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of A(H5Nx) virus diffusion to/from and within Europe during the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 epidemic waves, providing evidence of ongoing changes in transmission dynamics and disease epidemiology. We demonstrated the high genetic diversity of the circulating viruses, which have undergone frequent reassortment events, providing for the first time a complete overview and a proposed nomenclature of the multiple genotypes circulating in Europe in 2020-2022. We described the emergence of a new genotype with gull adapted genes, which offered the virus the opportunity to occupy new ecological niches, driving the disease endemicity in the European wild bird population. The high propensity of the virus for reassortment, its jumps to a progressively wider number of host species, including mammals, and the rapid acquisition of adaptive mutations make the trend of virus evolution and spread difficult to predict in this unfailing evolving scenario.

Maternal genetic history of ancient Tibetans over the past 4000 years

The settlement of the Tibetan Plateau epitomizes human adaptation to a high-altitude environment that poses great challenges to human activity. Here, we reconstruct a 4000-year maternal genetic history of Tibetans using 128 ancient mitochondrial genome data from 37 sites in Tibet. The phylogeny of haplotypes M9a1a, M9a1b, D4g2, G2a'c, and D4i show that ancient Tibetans share the most recent common ancestor with ancient Middle and Upper Yellow River populations around the Early and Middle Holocene. In addition, the connections between Tibetans and Northeastern Asians vary over the past 4000 years, with a stronger matrilineal connection between the two during 4000 BP-3000 BP, and a weakened connection after 3000 BP, that are coincident with climate change, followed by a reinforced connection after the Tubo period (1400 BP-1100 BP). Besides, an over 4000-year matrilineal continuity is observed in some of the maternal lineages. We also find the maternal genetic structure of ancient Tibetans is correlated to the geography and interactions between ancient Tibetans and ancient Nepal and Pakistan populations. Overall, the maternal genetic history of Tibetans can be characterized as a long-term matrilineal continuity with frequent internal and external population interactions that are dynamically shaped by geography, climate changes, as well as historical events.

Inferring Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 Proviral Integration Dates With Bayesian Inference

Human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV) proviruses archived in the persistent reservoir currently pose the greatest obstacle to HIV cure due to their evasion of combined antiretroviral therapy and ability to reseed HIV infection. Understanding the dynamics of the HIV persistent reservoir is imperative for discovering a durable HIV cure. Here, we explore Bayesian methods using the software BEAST2 to estimate HIV proviral integration dates. We started with within-host longitudinal HIV sequences collected prior to therapy, along with sequences collected from the persistent reservoir during suppressive therapy. We built a BEAST2 model to estimate integration dates of proviral sequences collected during suppressive therapy, implementing a tip date random walker to adjust the sequence tip dates and a latency-specific prior to inform the dates. To validate our method, we implemented it on both simulated and empirical data sets. Consistent with previous studies, we found that proviral integration dates were spread throughout active infection. Path sampling to select an alternative prior for date estimation in place of the latency-specific prior produced unrealistic results in one empirical data set, whereas on another data set, the latency-specific prior was selected as best fitting. Our Bayesian method outperforms current date estimation techniques with a root mean squared error of 0.89 years on simulated data relative to 1.23-1.89 years with previously developed methods. Bayesian methods offer an adaptable framework for inferring proviral integration dates.

Estimating the Age of Poorly Dated Fossil Specimens and Deposits Using a Total-Evidence Approach and the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Bayesian total-evidence approaches under the fossilized birth-death model enable biologists to combine fossil and extant data while accounting for uncertainty in the ages of fossil specimens, in an integrative phylogenetic analysis. Fossil age uncertainty is a key feature of the fossil record as many empirical data sets may contain a mix of precisely dated and poorly dated fossil specimens or deposits. In this study, we explore whether reliable age estimates for fossil specimens can be obtained from Bayesian total-evidence phylogenetic analyses under the fossilized birth-death model. Through simulations based on the example of the Baltic amber deposit, we show that estimates of fossil ages obtained through such an analysis are accurate, particularly when the proportion of poorly dated specimens remains low and the majority of fossil specimens have precise dates. We confirm our results using an empirical data set of living and fossil penguins by artificially increasing the age uncertainty around some fossil specimens and showing that the resulting age estimates overlap with the recorded age ranges. Our results are applicable to many empirical data sets where classical methods of establishing fossil ages have failed, such as the Baltic amber and the Gobi Desert deposits. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; fossil age estimates; fossilized birth-death; Lagerstätte; total-evidence.].

Analyses of Early ZIKV Genomes Are Consistent with Viral Spread from Northeast Brazil to the Americas

The Americas, particularly Brazil, were greatly impacted by the widespread Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015 and 2016. Efforts were made to implement genomic surveillance of ZIKV as part of the public health responses. The accuracy of spatiotemporal reconstructions of the epidemic spread relies on the unbiased sampling of the transmission process. In the early stages of the outbreak, we recruited patients exhibiting clinical symptoms of arbovirus-like infection from Salvador and Campo Formoso, Bahia, in Northeast Brazil. Between May 2015 and June 2016, we identified 21 cases of acute ZIKV infection and subsequently recovered 14 near full-length sequences using the amplicon tiling multiplex approach with nanopore sequencing. We performed a time-calibrated discrete phylogeographic analysis to trace the spread and migration history of the ZIKV. Our phylogenetic analysis supports a consistent relationship between ZIKV migration from Northeast to Southeast Brazil and its subsequent dissemination beyond Brazil. Additionally, our analysis provides insights into the migration of ZIKV from Brazil to Haiti and the role Brazil played in the spread of ZIKV to other countries, such as Singapore, the USA, and the Dominican Republic. The data generated by this study enhances our understanding of ZIKV dynamics and supports the existing knowledge, which can aid in future surveillance efforts against the virus.

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago1 had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming2. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11-19 °C above contemporary values3,4. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare5. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA6 (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

Emergence of a Reassortant 2.3.4.4b Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus Containing H9N2 PA Gene in Burkina Faso, West Africa, in 2021

Since 2006, the poultry population in Burkina Faso has been seriously hit by different waves of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 epizootics. In December 2021, three distinct regions of Burkina Faso, namely, Gomboussougou, Bonyollo, and Koubri, detected HPAI H5N1 viruses in poultry. Whole genome characterization and statistical phylogenetic approaches were applied to shed light on the potential origin of these viruses and estimate the time of virus emergence. Our results revealed that the HPAI H5N1 viruses reported in the three affected regions of Burkina Faso cluster together within clade 2.3.4.4b, and are closely related to HPAI H5N1 viruses identified in Nigeria and Niger in the period 2021–2022, except for the PA gene, which clusters with H9N2 viruses of the zoonotic G1 lineage collected in West Africa between 2017 and 2020. These reassortant viruses possess several mutations that may be associated with an increased zoonotic potential. Although it is difficult to ascertain where and when the reassortment event occurred, the emergence of a H5N1/H9N2 reassortant virus in a vulnerable region, such as West Africa, raises concerns about its possible impact on animal and human health. These findings also highlight the risk that West Africa may become a new hotspot for the emergence of new genotypes of HPAI viruses.

Phylogenetic-based inference reveals distinct transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages Gamma and P.2 in Brazil

The COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil experienced two major lineage replacements until mid-2021. The first was driven by lineage P.2, in late 2020, and the second by lineage Gamma, in early 2021. To understand how these SARS-CoV-2 lineages spread in Brazil, we analyzed 11,724 genomes collected throughout the country between September 2020 and April 2021. Our findings indicate that lineage P.2 probably emerged in July 2020 in the Rio de Janeiro state and Gamma in November 2020 in the Amazonas state. Both states were the main hubs of viral disseminations to other Brazilian locations. We estimate that Gamma was 1.56-3.06 times more transmissible than P.2 in Rio de Janeiro and that the median effective reproductive number (Re) of Gamma varied according to the geographic context (Re = 1.59-3.55). In summary, our findings support that lineage Gamma was more transmissible and spread faster than P.2 in Brazil.

The epidemic of the multiresistant dermatophyte Trichophyton indotineae has reached China

Due to its high degree of natural resistance to terbinafine in vitro and its tendency to spread globally from the Indian subcontinent, the emerging dermatophyte Trichophyton indotineae has become a major concern in dermatology. Herein, we present the first report of T. indotineae from mainland China. The transmission of the fungus to Guizhou Province in central China and eventual host susceptibilities were investigated. We studied 31 strains of the T. mentagrophytes complex from outpatient clinics of our hospital collected during the past 5 years. The set comprised four ITS genotypes, two of which were T. mentagrophytes genotype VIII, now known as Trichophyton indotineae; the earliest isolation in the Guiyang area appeared to date back to 2018. The isolate was derived from an Indian patient, while local Chinese patients had no dermatophytosis caused by this genotype. Reports from around the world indicated that almost all of the globally reported T. indotineae cases originated from the Indian subcontinent and surrounding countries without transmission among native populations, suggesting deviating local conditions or racial differences in immunity against this fungus.

Lack of evolutionary changes identified in SARS-CoV-2 for the re-emerging outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing, china

Although significant achievements have shown that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resurgence in Beijing, China, was initiated by contaminated frozen products and transported via cold chain transportation, international travelers with asymptomatic symptoms or false-negative nucleic acid may have another possible transmission mode that spread the virus to Beijing. One of the key differences between these two assumptions was whether the virus actively replicated since, so far, no reports showed viruses could stop evolution in alive hosts. We studied severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequences in this outbreak by a modified leaf-dating method with the Bayes factor. The numbers of single nucleotide variants (SNVs) found in SARS-CoV-2 sequences were significantly lower than those called from B.1.1 records collected at the matching time worldwide (P = 0.047). In addition, results of the leaf-dating method showed ages of viruses sampled from this outbreak were earlier than their recorded dates of collection (Bayes factors > 10), while control sequences (selected randomly with ten replicates) showed no differences in their collection dates (Bayes factors < 10). Our results which indicated that the re-emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Beijing in June 2020 was caused by a virus that exhibited a lack of evolutionary changes compared to viruses collected at the corresponding time, provided evolutionary evidence to the contaminated imported frozen food should be responsible for the reappearance of COVID-19 cases in Beijing. The method developed here might also be helpful to provide the very first clues for potential sources of COVID-19 cases in the future.

Molecular archeology of human viruses

The evolution of human-virus associations is usually reconstructed from contemporary patterns of genomic diversity. An intriguing, though still rarely implemented, alternative is to search for the genetic material of viruses in archeological and medical archive specimens to document evolution as it happened. In this chapter, we present lessons from ancient DNA research and incorporate insights from virology to explore the potential range of applications and likely limitations of archeovirological approaches. We also highlight the numerous questions archeovirology will hopefully allow us to tackle in the near future, and the main expected roadblocks to these avenues of research.

Phylogenetics and phylogeography of red deer mtDNA lineages during the last 50 000 years in Eurasia

The present phylogeographic pattern of red deer in Eurasia is not only a result of the contraction of their distribution range into glacial refugia and postglacial expansion, but probably also an effect of replacement of some red deer s.l. mtDNA lineages by others during the last 50 000 years. To better recognize this process, we analysed 501 sequences of mtDNA cytochrome b, including 194 ancient and 75 contemporary samples newly obtained for this study. The inclusion of 161 radiocarbon-dated samples enabled us to study the phylogeny in a temporal context and conduct divergence-time estimation and molecular dating. Depending on methodology, our estimate of divergence between Cervus elaphus and Cervus canadensis varied considerably (370 000 or 1.37 million years BP, respectively). The divergence times of genetic lineages and haplogroups corresponded to large environmental changes associated with stadials and interstadials of the Late Pleistocene. Due to the climatic oscillations, the distribution of C. elaphus and C. canadensis fluctuated in north–south and east–west directions. Some haplotypes dated to pre-Last Glacial Maximum periods were not detected afterwards, representing possibly extinct populations. We indicated with a high probability the presence of red deer sensu lato in south-eastern Europe and western Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum.

A Comprehensive Molecular Epidemiological Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Cyprus from April 2020 to January 2021: Evidence of a Highly Polyphyletic and Evolving Epidemic

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) resulted in an extraordinary global public health crisis. In early 2020, Cyprus, among other European countries, was affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and adopted lockdown measures in March 2020 to limit the initial outbreak on the island. In this study, we performed a comprehensive retrospective molecular epidemiological analysis (genetic, phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses) of SARS-CoV-2 isolates in Cyprus from April 2020 to January 2021, covering the first ten months of the SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemic on the island. The primary aim of this study was to assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Cyprus. Whole SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences were generated from 596 clinical samples (nasopharyngeal swabs) obtained from community-based diagnostic testing centers and hospitalized patients. The phylogenetic analyses revealed a total of 34 different lineages in Cyprus, with B.1.258, B.1.1.29, B.1.177, B.1.2, B.1 and B.1.1.7 (designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01, VOC) being the most prevalent lineages on the island during the study period. Phylodynamic analysis showed a highly dynamic epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with three consecutive surges characterized by specific lineages (B.1.1.29 from April to June 2020; B.1.258 from September 2020 to January 2021; and B.1.1.7 from December 2020 to January 2021). Genetic analysis of whole SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences of the aforementioned lineages revealed the presence of mutations within the S protein (L18F, ΔH69/V70, S898F, ΔY144, S162G, A222V, N439K, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, S982A and D1118H) that confer higher transmissibility and/or antibody escape (immune evasion) upon the virus. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the majority of imports and exports were to and from the United Kingdom (UK), although many other regions/countries were identified (southeastern Asia, southern Europe, eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Chile, the USA, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Finland, Switzerland and Pakistan). Taken together, these findings demonstrate that the SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemic in Cyprus is being maintained by a continuous influx of lineages from many countries, resulting in the establishment of an ever-evolving and polyphyletic virus on the island.

Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal in Measurably Evolving Populations

Phylogenetic methods can use the sampling times of molecular sequence data to calibrate the molecular clock, enabling the estimation of evolutionary rates and timescales for rapidly evolving pathogens and data sets containing ancient DNA samples. A key aspect of such calibrations is whether a sufficient amount of molecular evolution has occurred over the sampling time window, that is, whether the data can be treated as having come from a measurably evolving population. Here, we investigate the performance of a fully Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal (BETS) in sequence data. The method involves comparing the fit to the data of two models: a model in which the data are accompanied by the actual (heterochronous) sampling times, and a model in which the samples are constrained to be contemporaneous (isochronous). We conducted simulations under a wide range of conditions to demonstrate that BETS accurately classifies data sets according to whether they contain temporal signal or not, even when there is substantial among-lineage rate variation. We explore the behavior of this classification in analyses of five empirical data sets: modern samples of A/H1N1 influenza virus, the bacterium Bordetella pertussis, coronaviruses from mammalian hosts, ancient DNA from Hepatitis B virus, and mitochondrial genomes of dog species. Our results indicate that BETS is an effective alternative to other tests of temporal signal. In particular, this method has the key advantage of allowing a coherent assessment of the entire model, including the molecular clock and tree prior which are essential aspects of Bayesian phylodynamic analyses.

Simulating within host human immunodeficiency virus 1 genome evolution in the persistent reservoir

The complexities of viral evolution can be difficult to elucidate. Software simulating viral evolution provides powerful tools for exploring hypotheses of viral systems, especially in situations where thorough empirical data are difficult to obtain or parameters of interest are difficult to measure. Human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) infection has no durable cure; this is primarily due to the virus’ ability to integrate into the genome of host cells, where it can remain in a transcriptionally latent state. An effective cure strategy must eliminate every copy of HIV-1 in this ‘persistent reservoir’ because proviruses can reactivate, even decades later, to resume an active infection. However, many features of the persistent reservoir remain unclear, including the temporal dynamics of HIV-1 integration frequency and the longevity of the resulting reservoir. Thus, sophisticated analyses are required to measure these features and determine their temporal dynamics. Here, we present software that is an extension of SANTA-SIM to include multiple compartments of viral populations. We used the resulting software to create a model of HIV-1 within host evolution that incorporates the persistent HIV-1 reservoir. This model is composed of two compartments, an active compartment and a latent compartment. With this model, we compared five different date estimation methods (Closest Sequence, Clade, Linear Regression, Least Squares, and Maximum Likelihood) to recover the integration dates of genomes in our model’s HIV-1 reservoir. We found that the Least Squares method performed the best with the highest concordance (0.80) between real and estimated dates and the lowest absolute error (all pairwise t tests: P < 0.01). Our software is a useful tool for validating bioinformatics software and understanding the dynamics of the persistent HIV-1 reservoir.

The Recovery, Interpretation and Use of Ancient Pathogen Genomes

The ability to sequence genomes from ancient biological material has provided a rich source of information for evolutionary biology and engaged considerable public interest. Although most studies of ancient genomes have focused on vertebrates, particularly archaic humans, newer technologies allow the capture of microbial pathogens and microbiomes from ancient and historical human and non-human remains. This coming of age has been made possible by techniques that allow the preferential capture and amplification of discrete genomes from a background of predominantly host and environmental DNA. There are now near-complete ancient genome sequences for three pathogens of considerable historical interest - pre-modern bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis), smallpox (Variola virus) and cholera (Vibrio cholerae) - and for three equally important endemic human disease agents - Mycobacterium tuberculosis (tuberculosis), Mycobacterium leprae (leprosy) and Treponema pallidum pallidum (syphilis). Genomic data from these pathogens have extended earlier work by paleopathologists. There have been efforts to sequence the genomes of additional ancient pathogens, with the potential to broaden our understanding of the infectious disease burden common to past populations from the Bronze Age to the early 20th century. In this review we describe the state-of-the-art of this rapidly developing field, highlight the contributions of ancient pathogen genomics to multidisciplinary endeavors and describe some of the limitations in resolving questions about the emergence and long-term evolution of pathogens.

American mastodon mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple dispersal events in response to Pleistocene climate oscillations

Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles are correlated with dramatic temperature oscillations. Examining how species responded to these natural fluctuations can provide valuable insights into the impacts of present-day anthropogenic climate change. Here we present a phylogeographic study of the extinct American mastodon (Mammut americanum), based on 35 complete mitochondrial genomes. These data reveal the presence of multiple lineages within this species, including two distinct clades from eastern Beringia. Our molecular date estimates suggest that these clades arose at different times, supporting a pattern of repeated northern expansion and local extirpation in response to glacial cycling. Consistent with this hypothesis, we also note lower levels of genetic diversity among northern mastodons than in endemic clades south of the continental ice sheets. The results of our study highlight the complex relationships between population dispersals and climate change, and can provide testable hypotheses for extant species expected to experience substantial biogeographic impacts from rising temperatures.

Pleistocene population dynamics can inform the consequences of current climate change. This phylogeography of 35 complete American mastodon mitochondrial genomes suggests distinct lineages in this species repeatedly expanded northwards and then went locally extinct in response to glacial cycles.

A near full-length HIV-1 genome from 1966 recovered from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue

With very little direct biological data of HIV-1 from before the 1980s, far-reaching evolutionary and epidemiological inferences regarding the long prediscovery phase of this pandemic are based on extrapolations by phylodynamic models of HIV-1 genomic sequences gathered mostly over recent decades. Here, using a very sensitive multiplex RT-PCR assay, we screened 1,645 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue specimens collected for pathology diagnostics in Central Africa between 1958 and 1966. We report the near-complete viral genome in one HIV-1 positive specimen from Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), from 1966 ("DRC66")-a nonrecombinant sister lineage to subtype C that constitutes the oldest HIV-1 near full-length genome recovered to date. Root-to-tip plots showed the DRC66 sequence is not an outlier as would be expected if dating estimates from more recent genomes were systematically biased; and inclusion of the DRC66 sequence in tip-dated BEAST analyses did not significantly alter root and internal node age estimates based on post-1978 HIV-1 sequences. There was larger variation in divergence time estimates among datasets that were subsamples of the available HIV-1 genomes from 1978 to 2014, showing the inherent phylogenetic stochasticity across subsets of the real HIV-1 diversity. Our phylogenetic analyses date the origin of the pandemic lineage of HIV-1 to a time period around the turn of the 20th century (1881 to 1918). In conclusion, this unique archival HIV-1 sequence provides direct genomic insight into HIV-1 in 1960s DRC, and, as an ancient-DNA calibrator, it validates our understanding of HIV-1 evolutionary history.

Horseshoe-based Bayesian nonparametric estimation of effective population size trajectories

Phylodynamics is an area of population genetics that uses genetic sequence data to estimate past population dynamics. Modern state-of-the-art Bayesian nonparametric methods for recovering population size trajectories of unknown form use either change-point models or Gaussian process priors. Change-point models suffer from computational issues when the number of change-points is unknown and needs to be estimated. Gaussian process-based methods lack local adaptivity and cannot accurately recover trajectories that exhibit features such as abrupt changes in trend or varying levels of smoothness. We propose a novel, locally adaptive approach to Bayesian nonparametric phylodynamic inference that has the flexibility to accommodate a large class of functional behaviors. Local adaptivity results from modeling the log-transformed effective population size a priori as a horseshoe Markov random field, a recently proposed statistical model that blends together the best properties of the change-point and Gaussian process modeling paradigms. We use simulated data to assess model performance, and find that our proposed method results in reduced bias and increased precision when compared to contemporary methods. We also use our models to reconstruct past changes in genetic diversity of human hepatitis C virus in Egypt and to estimate population size changes of ancient and modern steppe bison. These analyses show that our new method captures features of the population size trajectories that were missed by the state-of-the-art methods.

Heavy reliance on plants for Romanian cave bears evidenced by amino acid nitrogen isotope analysis

Heavy reliance on plants is rare in Carnivora and mostly limited to relatively small species in subtropical settings. The feeding behaviors of extinct cave bears living during Pleistocene cold periods at middle latitudes have been intensely studied using various approaches including isotopic analyses of fossil collagen. In contrast to cave bears from all other regions in Europe, some individuals from Romania show exceptionally high δ15N values that might be indicative of meat consumption. Herbivory on plants with high δ15N values cannot be ruled out based on this method, however. Here we apply an approach using the δ15N values of individual amino acids from collagen that offsets the baseline δ15N variation among environments. The analysis yielded strong signals of reliance on plants for Romanian cave bears based on the δ15N values of glutamate and phenylalanine. These results could suggest that the high variability in bulk collagen δ15N values observed among cave bears in Romania reflects niche partitioning but in a general trophic context of herbivory.

Combining genomics and epidemiology to track mumps virus transmission in the United States

Unusually large outbreaks of mumps across the United States in 2016 and 2017 raised questions about the extent of mumps circulation and the relationship between these and prior outbreaks. We paired epidemiological data from public health investigations with analysis of mumps virus whole genome sequences from 201 infected individuals, focusing on Massachusetts university communities. Our analysis suggests continuous, undetected circulation of mumps locally and nationally, including multiple independent introductions into Massachusetts and into individual communities. Despite the presence of these multiple mumps virus lineages, the genomic data show that one lineage has dominated in the US since at least 2006. Widespread transmission was surprising given high vaccination rates, but we found no genetic evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Viral genomic data allowed us to reconstruct mumps transmission links not evident from epidemiological data or standard single-gene surveillance efforts and also revealed connections between apparently unrelated mumps outbreaks.

Demographic reconstruction from ancient DNA supports rapid extinction of the great auk

The great auk was once abundant and distributed across the North Atlantic. It is now extinct, having been heavily exploited for its eggs, meat, and feathers. We investigated the impact of human hunting on its demise by integrating genetic data, GPS-based ocean current data, and analyses of population viability. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes of 41 individuals from across the species' geographic range and reconstructed population structure and population dynamics throughout the Holocene. Taken together, our data do not provide any evidence that great auks were at risk of extinction prior to the onset of intensive human hunting in the early 16th century. In addition, our population viability analyses reveal that even if the great auk had not been under threat by environmental change, human hunting alone could have been sufficient to cause its extinction. Our results emphasise the vulnerability of even abundant and widespread species to intense and localised exploitation.

Disentangling the role of Africa in the global spread of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza

The role of Africa in the dynamics of the global spread of a zoonotic and economically-important virus, such as the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx of the Gs/GD lineage, remains unexplored. Here we characterise the spatiotemporal patterns of virus diffusion during three HPAI H5Nx intercontinental epidemic waves and demonstrate that Africa mainly acted as an ecological sink of the HPAI H5Nx viruses. A joint analysis of host dynamics and continuous spatial diffusion indicates that poultry trade as well as wild bird migrations have contributed to the virus spreading into Africa, with West Africa acting as a crucial hotspot for virus introduction and dissemination into the continent. We demonstrate varying paths of avian influenza incursions into Africa as well as virus spread within Africa over time, which reveal that virus expansion is a complex phenomenon, shaped by an intricate interplay between avian host ecology, virus characteristics and environmental variables.

Hepatitis C virus genotype 1 and 2 recombinant genomes and the phylogeographic history of the 2k/1b lineage

Recombination is an important driver of genetic diversity, though it is relatively uncommon in hepatitis C virus (HCV). Recent investigation of sequence data acquired from HCV clinical trials produced twenty-one full-genome recombinant viruses belonging to three putative inter-subtype forms 2b/1a, 2b/1b, and 2k/1b. The 2k/1b chimera is the only known HCV circulating recombinant form (CRF), provoking interest in its genetic structure and origin. Discovered in Russia in 1999, 2k/1b cases have since been detected throughout the former Soviet Union, Western Europe, and North America. Although 2k/1b prevalence is highest in the Caucasus mountain region (i.e., Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia), the origin and migration patterns of CRF 2k/1b have remained obscure due to a paucity of available sequences. We assembled an alignment which spans the entire coding region of the HCV genome containing all available 2k/1b sequences (>500 nucleotides; n = 109) sampled in ninteen countries from public databases (102 individuals), additional newly sequenced genomic regions (from 48 of these 102 individuals), unpublished isolates with newly sequenced regions (5 additional individuals), and novel complete genomes (2 additional individuals) generated in this study. Analysis of this expanded dataset reconfirmed the monophyletic origin of 2k/1b with a recombination breakpoint at position 3,187 (95% confidence interval: 3,172–3,202; HCV GT1a reference strain H77). Phylogeography is a valuable tool used to reveal viral migration dynamics. Inference of the timed history of spread in a Bayesian framework identified Russia as the ancestral source of the CRF 2k/1b clade. Further, we found evidence for migration routes leading out of Russia to other former Soviet Republics or countries under the Soviet sphere of influence. These findings suggest an interplay between geopolitics and the historical spread of CRF 2k/1b.

Tracing Ancient Human Migrations into Sahul Using Hepatitis B Virus Genomes

The entry point and timing of ancient human migration into continental Sahul (the combined landmass of Australia, New Guinea, and Tasmania) are subject to debate. Unique strains of hepatitis B virus (HBV) are endemic among modern-day Australian Aboriginals (HBV/C4) and Indigenous Melanesians (HBV/C3). We postulated that HBV genomes could be used to infer human population movements because the main HBV transmission route in endemic populations is via mother-to-child for genotypes B and C infections. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses of HBV genomes inferred the origin of HBV/C4 to be >59 thousand years ago (ka) (95% HPD: 34-85 ka), and most likely to have occurred on the Sunda Shelf (southeast extension of the continental shelf of Southeast Asia). Our analysis further suggested an age of >51 ka (95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD): 36-67 ka) for the most recent common ancestor of HBV/C4 in Australia, correlating with the arrival time of anatomically modern humans into Australia, with the entry point suggested along a southern route via Timor. While we also inferred the origin of HBC/C3 to be on the Sunda Shelf, our analyses suggested that it was carried into Melanesia by Indigenous Melanesians who migrated through New Guinea north of the highlands. These findings reveal that HBV genomes can be used to infer ancient human population movements.

Divergence dating using mixed effects clock modelling: An application to HIV-1

The need to estimate divergence times in evolutionary histories in the presence of various sources of substitution rate variation has stimulated a rich development of relaxed molecular clock models. Viral evolutionary studies frequently adopt an uncorrelated clock model as a generic relaxed molecular clock process, but this may impose considerable estimation bias if discrete rate variation exists among clades or lineages. For HIV-1 group M, rate variation among subtypes has been shown to result in inconsistencies in time to the most recent common ancestor estimation. Although this calls into question the adequacy of available molecular dating methods, no solution to this problem has been offered so far. Here, we investigate the use of mixed effects molecular clock models, which combine both fixed and random effects in the evolutionary rate, to estimate divergence times. Using simulation, we demonstrate that this model outperforms existing molecular clock models in a Bayesian framework for estimating time-measured phylogenies in the presence of mixed sources of rate variation, while also maintaining good performance in simpler scenarios. By analysing a comprehensive HIV-1 group M complete genome data set we confirm considerable rate variation among subtypes that is not adequately modelled by uncorrelated relaxed clock models. The mixed effects clock model can accommodate this rate variation and results in a time to the most recent common ancestor of HIV-1 group M of 1920 (1915-25), which is only slightly earlier than the uncorrelated relaxed clock estimate for the same data set. The use of complete genome data appears to have a more profound impact than the molecular clock model because it reduces the credible intervals by 50 per cent relative to similar estimates based on short envelope gene sequences.

Circulation of chikungunya virus East/Central/South African lineage in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has raised serious concerns due to the virus' rapid dissemination into new geographic areas and the clinical features associated with infection. To better understand CHIKV dynamics in Rio de Janeiro, we generated 11 near-complete genomes by means of real-time portable nanopore sequencing of virus isolates obtained directly from clinical samples. To better understand CHIKV dynamics in Rio de Janeiro, we generated 11 near-complete genomes by means of real-time portable nanopore sequencing of virus isolates obtained directly from clinical samples. Our phylogenetic reconstructions indicated the circulation of the East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage in Rio de Janeiro. Time-measured phylogenetic analysis combined with CHIKV notified case numbers revealed the ECSA lineage was introduced in Rio de Janeiro around June 2015 (95% Bayesian credible interval: May to July 2015) indicating the virus was circulating unnoticed for 5 months before the first reports of CHIKV autochthonous transmissions in Rio de Janeiro, in November 2015. These findings reinforce that continued genomic surveillance strategies are needed to assist in the monitoring and understanding of arbovirus epidemics, which might help to attenuate public health impact of infectious diseases.

Evolutionary history and palaeoecology of brown bear in North-East Siberia re-examined using ancient DNA and stable isotopes from skeletal remains

Over 60% of the modern distribution range of brown bears falls within Russia, yet palaeoecological data from the region remain scarce. Complete modern Russian brown bear mitogenomes are abundant in the published literature, yet examples of their ancient counterparts are absent. Similarly, there is only limited stable isotopic data of prehistoric brown bears from the region. We used ancient DNA and stable carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes retrieved from five Pleistocene Yakutian brown bears (one Middle Pleistocene and four Late Pleistocene), to elucidate the evolutionary history and palaeoecology of the species in the region. We were able to reconstruct the complete mitogenome of one of the Late Pleistocene specimens, but we were unable to assign it to any of the previously published brown bear mitogenome clades. A subsequent analysis of published mtDNA control region sequences, which included sequences of extinct clades from other geographic regions, assigned the ancient Yakutian bear to the extinct clade 3c; a clade previously identified from Late Quaternary specimens from Eastern Beringia and Northern Spain. Our analyses of stable isotopes showed relatively high δ¹⁵N values in the Pleistocene Yakutian brown bears, suggesting a more carnivorous diet than contemporary brown bears from Eastern Beringia.

Ancestral mitochondrial N lineage from the Neolithic 'green' Sahara

Because Africa's climate hampers DNA preservation, knowledge of its genetic variability is mainly restricted to modern samples, even though population genetics dynamics and back-migrations from Eurasia may have modified haplotype frequencies, masking ancient genetic scenarios. Thanks to improved methodologies, ancient genetic data for the African continent are now increasingly available, starting to fill in the gap. Here we present newly obtained mitochondrial genomes from two ~7000-year-old individuals from Takarkori rockshelter, Libya, representing the earliest and first genetic data for the Sahara region. These individuals carry a novel mutation motif linked to the haplogroup N root. Our result demonstrates the presence of an ancestral lineage of the N haplogroup in the Holocene "Green Sahara", associated to a Middle Pastoral (Neolithic) context.

Compound-specific radiocarbon dating and mitochondrial DNA analysis of the Pleistocene hominin from Salkhit Mongolia

A skullcap found in the Salkhit Valley in northeast Mongolia is, to our knowledge, the only Pleistocene hominin fossil found in the country. It was initially described as an individual with possible archaic affinities, but its ancestry has been debated since the discovery. Here, we determine the age of the Salkhit skull by compound-specific radiocarbon dating of hydroxyproline to 34,950-33,900 Cal. BP (at 95% probability), placing the Salkhit individual in the Early Upper Paleolithic period. We reconstruct the complete mitochondrial genome (mtDNA) of the specimen. It falls within a group of modern human mtDNAs (haplogroup N) that is widespread in Eurasia today. The results now place the specimen into its proper chronometric and biological context and allow us to begin integrating it with other evidence for the human occupation of this region during the Paleolithic, as well as wider Pleistocene sequences across Eurasia.

Phylogenetic approach to recover integration dates of latent HIV sequences within-host

Given that HIV evolution and latent reservoir establishment occur continually within-host, and that latently infected cells can persist long-term, the HIV reservoir should comprise a genetically heterogeneous archive recapitulating within-host HIV evolution. However, this has yet to be conclusively demonstrated, in part due to the challenges of reconstructing within-host reservoir establishment dynamics over long timescales. We developed a phylogenetic framework to reconstruct the integration dates of individual latent HIV lineages. The framework first involves inference and rooting of a maximum-likelihood phylogeny relating plasma HIV RNA sequences serially sampled before the initiation of suppressive antiretroviral therapy, along with putative latent sequences sampled thereafter. A linear model relating root-to-tip distances of plasma HIV RNA sequences to their sampling dates is used to convert root-to-tip distances of putative latent lineages to their establishment (integration) dates. Reconstruction of the ages of putative latent sequences sampled from chronically HIV-infected individuals up to 10 y following initiation of suppressive therapy revealed a genetically heterogeneous reservoir that recapitulated HIV's within-host evolutionary history. Reservoir sequences were interspersed throughout multiple within-host lineages, with the oldest dating to >20 y before sampling; historic genetic bottleneck events were also recorded therein. Notably, plasma HIV RNA sequences isolated from a viremia blip in an individual receiving otherwise suppressive therapy were highly genetically diverse and spanned a 20-y age range, suggestive of spontaneous in vivo HIV reactivation from a large latently infected cell pool. Our framework for reservoir dating provides a potentially powerful addition to the HIV persistence research toolkit.

A comparison of methods for estimating substitution rates from ancient DNA sequence data

Background

Phylogenetic analysis of DNA from modern and ancient samples allows the reconstruction of important demographic and evolutionary processes. A critical component of these analyses is the estimation of evolutionary rates, which can be calibrated using information about the ages of the samples. However, the reliability of these rate estimates can be negatively affected by among-lineage rate variation and non-random sampling. Using a simulation study, we compared the performance of three phylogenetic methods for inferring evolutionary rates from time-structured data sets: regression of root-to-tip distances, least-squares dating, and Bayesian inference. We also applied these three methods to time-structured mitogenomic data sets from six vertebrate species.

Results

Our results from 12 simulation scenarios show that the three methods produce reliable estimates when the substitution rate is high, rate variation is low, and samples of similar ages are not all grouped together in the tree (i.e., low phylo-temporal clustering). The interaction of these factors is particularly important for least-squares dating and Bayesian estimation of evolutionary rates. The three estimation methods produced consistent estimates of rates across most of the six mitogenomic data sets, with sequence data from horses being an exception.

Conclusions

We recommend that phylogenetic studies of ancient DNA sequences should use multiple methods of inference and test for the presence of temporal signal, among-lineage rate variation, and phylo-temporal clustering in the data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1192-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Significant loss of mitochondrial diversity within the last century due to extinction of peripheral populations in eastern gorillas

Species and populations are disappearing at an alarming rate as a direct result of human activities. Loss of genetic diversity associated with population decline directly impacts species' long-term survival. Therefore, preserving genetic diversity is of considerable conservation importance. However, to assist in conservation efforts, it is important to understand how genetic diversity is spatially distributed and how it changes due to anthropogenic pressures. In this study, we use historical museum and modern faecal samples of two critically endangered eastern gorilla taxa, Grauer's (Gorilla beringei graueri) and mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei), to directly infer temporal changes in genetic diversity within the last century. Using over 100 complete mitochondrial genomes, we observe a significant decline in haplotype and nucleotide diversity in Grauer's gorillas. By including historical samples from now extinct populations we show that this decline can be attributed to the loss of peripheral populations rather than a decrease in genetic diversity within the core range of the species. By directly quantifying genetic changes in the recent past, our study shows that human activities have severely impacted eastern gorilla genetic diversity within only four to five generations. This rapid loss calls for dedicated conservation actions, which should include preservation of the remaining peripheral populations.

Evolutionary Patterns and Processes: Lessons from Ancient DNA

Ever since its emergence in 1984, the field of ancient DNA has struggled to overcome the challenges related to the decay of DNA molecules in the fossil record. With the recent development of high-throughput DNA sequencing technologies and molecular techniques tailored to ultra-damaged templates, it has now come of age, merging together approaches in phylogenomics, population genomics, epigenomics, and metagenomics. Leveraging on complete temporal sample series, ancient DNA provides direct access to the most important dimension in evolution—time, allowing a wealth of fundamental evolutionary processes to be addressed at unprecedented resolution. This review taps into the most recent findings in ancient DNA research to present analyses of ancient genomic and metagenomic data.

The paradox of HBV evolution as revealed from a 16th century mummy

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a ubiquitous viral pathogen associated with large-scale morbidity and mortality in humans. However, there is considerable uncertainty over the time-scale of its origin and evolution. Initial shotgun data from a mid-16th century Italian child mummy, that was previously paleopathologically identified as having been infected with Variola virus (VARV, the agent of smallpox), showed no DNA reads for VARV yet did for hepatitis B virus (HBV). Previously, electron microscopy provided evidence for the presence of VARV in this sample, although similar analyses conducted here did not reveal any VARV particles. We attempted to enrich and sequence for both VARV and HBV DNA. Although we did not recover any reads identified as VARV, we were successful in reconstructing an HBV genome at 163.8X coverage. Strikingly, both the HBV sequence and that of the associated host mitochondrial DNA displayed a nearly identical cytosine deamination pattern near the termini of DNA fragments, characteristic of an ancient origin. In contrast, phylogenetic analyses revealed a close relationship between the putative ancient virus and contemporary HBV strains (of genotype D), at first suggesting contamination. In addressing this paradox we demonstrate that HBV evolution is characterized by a marked lack of temporal structure. This confounds attempts to use molecular clock-based methods to date the origin of this virus over the time-frame sampled so far, and means that phylogenetic measures alone cannot yet be used to determine HBV sequence authenticity. If genuine, this phylogenetic pattern indicates that the genotypes of HBV diversified long before the 16th century, and enables comparison of potential pathogenic similarities between modern and ancient HBV. These results have important implications for our understanding of the emergence and evolution of this common viral pathogen.

Ancient DNA reveals genetic connections between early Di-Qiang and Han Chinese

Background

Ancient Di-Qiang people once resided in the Ganqing region of China, adjacent to the Central Plain area from where Han Chinese originated. While gene flow between the Di-Qiang and Han Chinese has been proposed, there is no evidence to support this view. Here we analyzed the human remains from an early Di-Qiang site (Mogou site dated ~4000 years old) and compared them to other ancient DNA across China, including an early Han-related site (Hengbei site dated ~3000 years old) to establish the underlying genetic relationship between the Di-Qiang and ancestors of Han Chinese.

Results

We found Mogou mtDNA haplogroups were highly diverse, comprising 14 haplogroups: A, B, C, D (D*, D4, D5), F, G, M7, M8, M10, M13, M25, N*, N9a, and Z. In contrast, Mogou males were all Y-DNA haplogroup O3a2/P201; specifically one male was further assigned to O3a2c1a/M117 using targeted unique regions on the non-recombining region of the Y-chromosome. We compared Mogou to 7 other ancient and 38 modern Chinese groups, in a total of 1793 individuals, and found that Mogou shared close genetic distances with Taojiazhai (a more recent Di-Qiang population), Hengbei, and Northern Han. We modeled their interactions using Approximate Bayesian Computation, and support was given to a potential admixture of ~13-18% between the Mogou and Northern Han around 3300–3800 years ago.

Conclusions

Mogou harbors the earliest genetically identifiable Di-Qiang, ancestral to the Taojiazhai, and up to ~33% paternal and ~70% of its maternal haplogroups could be found in present-day Northern Han Chinese.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-017-1082-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exploiting Genetic Information to Trace Plant Virus Dispersal in Landscapes

During the past decade, knowledge of pathogen life history has greatly benefited from the advent and development of molecular epidemiology. This branch of epidemiology uses information on pathogen variation at the molecular level to gain insights into a pathogen's niche and evolution and to characterize pathogen dispersal within and between host populations. Here, we review molecular epidemiology approaches that have been developed to trace plant virus dispersal in landscapes. In particular, we highlight how virus molecular epidemiology, nourished with powerful sequencing technologies, can provide novel insights at the crossroads between the blooming fields of landscape genetics, phylogeography, and evolutionary epidemiology. We present existing approaches and their limitations and contributions to the understanding of plant virus epidemiology.

tipdatingbeast: an r package to assist the implementation of phylogenetic tip-dating tests using beast

Molecular tip dating of phylogenetic trees is a growing discipline that uses DNA sequences sampled at different points in time to coestimate the timing of evolutionary events with rates of molecular evolution. In this context, beast, a program for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences, is the most widely used phylogenetic tool. Here, we introduce tipdatingbeast, an r package built to assist the implementation of various phylogenetic tip-dating tests using beast. tipdatingbeast currently contains two main functions. The first one allows preparing date-randomization analyses, which assess the temporal signal of a data set. The second function allows performing leave-one-out analyses, which test for the consistency between independent calibration sequences and allow pinpointing those leading to potential bias. We apply those functions to an empirical data set and supply practical guidance for results interpretation.

Zika virus evolution and spread in the Americas

Although the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas and its link to birth defects have attracted a great deal of attention, much remains unknown about ZIKV disease epidemiology and ZIKV evolution, in part owing to a lack of genomic data. Here we address this gap in knowledge by using multiple sequencing approaches to generate 110 ZIKV genomes from clinical and mosquito samples from 10 countries and territories, greatly expanding the observed viral genetic diversity from this outbreak. We analysed the timing and patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions; our phylogenetic evidence suggests rapid expansion of the outbreak in Brazil and multiple introductions of outbreak strains into Puerto Rico, Honduras, Colombia, other Caribbean islands, and the continental United States. We find that ZIKV circulated undetected in multiple regions for many months before the first locally transmitted cases were confirmed, highlighting the importance of surveillance of viral infections. We identify mutations with possible functional implications for ZIKV biology and pathogenesis, as well as those that might be relevant to the effectiveness of diagnostic tests.

Fossil and genomic evidence constrains the timing of bison arrival in North America

The arrival of bison in North America marks one of the most successful large-mammal dispersals from Asia within the last million years, yet the timing and nature of this event remain poorly determined. Here, we used a combined paleontological and paleogenomic approach to provide a robust timeline for the entry and subsequent evolution of bison within North America. We characterized two fossil-rich localities in Canada's Yukon and identified the oldest well-constrained bison fossil in North America, a 130,000-y-old steppe bison, Bison cf. priscus We extracted and sequenced mitochondrial genomes from both this bison and from the remains of a recently discovered, ∼120,000-y-old giant long-horned bison, Bison latifrons, from Snowmass, Colorado. We analyzed these and 44 other bison mitogenomes with ages that span the Late Pleistocene, and identified two waves of bison dispersal into North America from Asia, the earliest of which occurred ∼195-135 thousand y ago and preceded the morphological diversification of North American bison, and the second of which occurred during the Late Pleistocene, ∼45-21 thousand y ago. This chronological arc establishes that bison first entered North America during the sea level lowstand accompanying marine isotope stage 6, rejecting earlier records of bison in North America. After their invasion, bison rapidly colonized North America during the last interglaciation, spreading from Alaska through continental North America; they have been continuously resident since then.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

The Genome as an Evolutionary Timepiece

The molecular clock is a valuable and widely used tool for estimating evolutionary rates and timescales in biological research. There has been considerable progress in the theory and practice of molecular clocks over the past five decades. Although the idea of a molecular clock was originally put forward in the context of protein evolution and advanced using various biochemical techniques, it is now primarily applied to analyses of DNA sequences. An interesting but very underappreciated aspect of molecular clocks is that they can be based on genetic data other than DNA or protein sequences. For example, evolutionary timescales can be estimated using microsatellites, protein folds, and even the extent of recombination. These genome features hold great potential for molecular dating, particularly in cases where nucleotide sequences might be uninformative or unreliable. Here we present an outline of the different genetic data types that have been used for molecular dating, and we describe the features that good molecular clocks should possess. We hope that our article inspires further work on the genome as an evolutionary timepiece.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'.

Inferences from tip-calibrated phylogenies: a review and a practical guide

Molecular dating of phylogenetic trees is a growing discipline using sequence data to co‐estimate the timing of evolutionary events and rates of molecular evolution. All molecular‐dating methods require converting genetic divergence between sequences into absolute time. Historically, this could only be achieved by associating externally derived dates obtained from fossil or biogeographical evidence to internal nodes of the tree. In some cases, notably for fast‐evolving genomes such as viruses and some bacteria, the time span over which samples were collected may cover a significant proportion of the time since they last shared a common ancestor. This situation allows phylogenetic trees to be calibrated by associating sampling dates directly to the sequences representing the tips (terminal nodes) of the tree. The increasing availability of genomic data from ancient DNA extends the applicability of such tip‐based calibration to a variety of taxa including humans, extinct megafauna and various microorganisms which typically have a scarce fossil record. The development of statistical models accounting for heterogeneity in different aspects of the evolutionary process while accommodating very large data sets (e.g. whole genomes) has allowed using tip‐dating methods to reach inferences on divergence times, substitution rates, past demography or the age of specific mutations on a variety of spatiotemporal scales. In this review, we summarize the current state of the art of tip dating, discuss some recent applications, highlight common pitfalls and provide a ‘how to’ guide to thoroughly perform such analyses.

Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data

Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data sets.