Statistical Models and Methods for Network Meta-Analysis

Meta-Analytic Modeling of the Severity-Yield Relationships in Soybean Frogeye Leaf Spot Epidemics

Frogeye leaf spot (FLS), caused by Cercospora sojina, is an important foliar disease affecting soybean in the United States. A meta-analytic approach including 39 fungicide trials conducted from 2012 to 2021 across eight states (Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee) was used to assess the relationship between FLS severity and soybean yield. Correlation and regression analyses were performed separately to determine Fisher's transformation of correlation coefficients (Zr), intercept (β0) and slope (β1). Disease pressure (low severity, ≤34.5; high severity, >34.5%) and yield class (low, ≤3,352; high, >3,352 kg/ha) were included as categorical moderators. Pearson's [Formula: see text], obtained from back-transforming the [Formula: see text]r estimated by an overall random-effects model, showed a significant negative linear relationship between FLS severity and yield ([Formula: see text] = -0.60). The [Formula: see text]r was affected by disease pressure (P = 0.0003) but not by yield class (P = 0.8141). A random-coefficient model estimated a slope of -19 kg/ha for each percent severity for a mean attainable yield of 3,719.9 kg/ha. Based on the overall mean (95% CI) of the intercept and slope estimated by the random-coefficients model, the estimated overall relative damage coefficient was 0.51% (0.36 to 0.69), indicating that a percent increase in FLS severity reduced yield by 0.51%. The best model included yield class as a covariate, and population-average intercepts differed significantly between low (3,455.1 kg/ha) and high (3,842.7 kg/ha) yield classes. This highlights the potential impact of FLS on soybean yield if not managed and may help in disease management decisions.

Efficacy and Profitability of Fungicides for Managing Frogeye Leaf Spot on Soybean in the United States: A 10-Year Quantitative Summary

Frogeye leaf spot (FLS), caused by Cercospora sojina, is an economically important disease of soybean in the United States. Data from 66 uniform fungicide trials (UFTs) conducted from 2012 to 2021 across eight states (Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee) were gathered and analyzed to determine the efficacy and profitability of the following fungicides applied at the beginning pod developmental stage (R3): azoxystrobin + difenoconazole (AZOX + DIFE), difenoconazole + pydiflumetofen (DIFE + PYDI), pyraclostrobin (PYRA), pyraclostrobin + fluxapyroxad + propiconazole (PYRA + FLUX + PROP), tetraconazole (TTRA), thiophanate-methyl (TMET), thiophanate-methyl + tebuconazole (TMET + TEBU), and trifloxystrobin + prothioconazole (TFLX + PROT). A network meta-analytic model was fitted to the log of the means of FLS severity data and to the nontransformed mean yield for each treatment, including the nontreated. The percent reduction in disease severity (%) and the yield response (kg/ha) relative to the nontreated was the lowest for PYRA (11%; 136 kg/ha) and the greatest for DIFE + PYDI (57%; 441 kg/ha). A significant decline in efficacy over time was detected for PYRA (18 percentage points [p.p.]), TTRA (27 p.p.), AZOX + DIFE (18 p.p.), and TMET + TEBU (19 p.p.) by using year as a continuous covariate in the model. Finally, probabilities of breaking even were the greatest (>65%) for the most effective fungicide DIFE + PYDI and the lowest (<55%) for PYRA. Results of this meta-analysis may be useful to support decisions when planning fungicide programs.

Old but Gold: Captan Is a Valuable Tool for Managing Anthracnose and Botrytis Fruit Rots and Improving Strawberry Yields Based on a Meta-Analysis

Botrytis fruit rot (BFR) and anthracnose fruit rot (AFR) are diseases of concern to strawberry growers. Both diseases are managed mainly by fungicide applications from the nursery (plant production) to the end of the growing season (fruit production). In Florida, captan is the main broad-spectrum fungicide used to control BFR and AFR. It has been tested in many trials over the years in various programs in alternation with single-site fungicides or weekly applications. Due to its broad-spectrum activity, captan is a pivotal tool in fungicide resistance management, because resistance to several fungicides has been reported in populations causing BFR and AFR. Our objective was to determine the effectiveness and profitability of applications of captan for controlling BFR and AFR based on a univariate meta-analysis considering data from 25 field trials conducted from 2005 to 2021 in Florida. Captan applications significantly improved marketable yields and reduced BFR and AFR incidence during late- and total-season periods. Marketable yields were significantly improved even when the effect on disease control was not significant. Our results indicate 100% probability that weekly captan applications would return the investment during low, medium, and high strawberry pricing regimes, although the magnitude of the return will depend on strawberry market prices. However, the probabilities of reducing BFR, AFR, and culls were lower. Results from our meta-analysis demonstrate the value of captan as an important tool for strawberry growers. Captan applications, in addition to effectively controlling BFR and AFR and improving marketable yields, will result in investment returns at any strawberry price level.

A network meta-analysis on the efficacy of different mycotoxin binders to reduce aflatoxin M1 in milk after aflatoxin B1 challenge in dairy cows

The objective of this network meta-analysis was to determine the efficacy of different mycotoxin binders (MTB) to reduce aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in milk. A literature search was conducted to identify in vivo research papers from different databases. Inclusion criteria were in vivo, dairy cows, description of the MTB used, doses of MTB, aflatoxin inclusion in the diet, and concentration of AFM1 in milk. Twenty-eight papers with 131 data points were selected. Binders used in the studies were hydrated sodium calcium aluminosilicate (HSCAS), yeast cell wall (YCW), bentonite, and mixes of several MTB (MX). The response variables were AFM1 concentration, AFM1 reduction in milk, total AFM1 excreted in milk, and transfer of aflatoxin from feed to AFM1 in milk. Data were analyzed with CINeMA and GLIMMIX procedures with the WEIGHT statement of SAS (SAS Inst. Inc.). The AFM1 concentration in milk decreased for bentonite (0.3 µg/L ± 0.05; mean ± SE) and HSCAS (0.4 µg/L ± 0.12), and tended to decrease for MX (0.6 µg/L ± 0.13) but was similar for YCW (0.6 µg/L ± 0.12), compared with control (0.7 µg/L ± 0.12). The percentage reduction of AFM1 in milk was similar for all MTB and different from control with a range of reduction from 25% for YCW to 40% for bentonite. The excretion of AFM1 in milk was lower in YCW (5.3 µg/L ± 2.37), HSCAS (13.8 µg/L ± 3.31), and MX (17.1 µg/L ± 5.64), and not affected by bentonite (16.8 µg/L ± 3.33) compared with control (22.1 µg/L ± 5.33). The transfer of aflatoxin B1 from feed into AFM1 in milk was lowest in bentonite (0.6% ± 0.12), MX (1.04% ± 0.27), and HSCAS (1.04% ± 0.21), and not affected in YCW (1.4% ± 0.10), compared with control (1.7% ± 0.35). The meta-analysis results indicate that all MTB reduced the AFM1 transfer into milk, where bentonite had the highest capacity and YCW the lowest.

A network meta-analysis of the impact of feed-grade and slow-release ureas on lactating dairy cattle

A network meta-analysis was conducted to determine the effects of feeding feed-grade urea (FGU) or slow-release urea (SRU) as a replacement for true protein supplements (control; CTR) in high-producing dairy cattle diets. Research papers were selected (n = 44) from experiments published between 1971 and 2021 based on the following criteria: dairy breed, detailed description of the isonitrogenous diets fed, provision of FGU or SRU (or both), high-yielding cows (>25 kg/cow per day), and results that included at least milk yield and composition, but data on nutrient intake, digestibility, ruminal fermentation profile, and N utilization were also considered. Most studies compared only 2 treatments, and a network meta-analysis approach was adopted to compare the effects among CTR, FGU, and SRU. Data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model network meta-analysis. Forest plots of milk yield were used to visualize the estimated effect size of treatments. Cows included in the study produced 32.9 ± 5.7 L/d of milk, 3.46 ± 5.0% of fat, and 3.11 ± 0.2% of protein with an intake of 22.1 ± 3.45 kg of dry matter. Average diet composition was 1.65 ± 0.07 Mcal of net energy for lactation, 16.4 ± 1.45% CP, 30.8 ± 5.91% neutral detergent fiber, and 23.0 ± 4.62% starch. Average supply of FGU was 209 g/cow per day, whereas the average supply of SRU was 204 g/cow per day. With some exceptions, feeding FGU and SRU did not affect nutrient intake and digestibility, N utilization, and milk yield and composition. However, the FGU reduced the acetate proportion (61.6 vs. 59.7 mol/100 mol) and the SRU reduced the butyrate proportion (12.4 vs. 11.9 mol/100 mol) compared with CTR. Ruminal ammonia-N concentration increased from 8.47 to 11.5 and 9.3 mg/dL in CTR, FGU, and SRU, respectively. Urinary nitrogen excretion increased from 171 to 198 g/d in CTR versus the 2 urea treatments, respectively. The use of moderate doses of FGU in high-producing dairy cows may be justified based on its lower cost.

Foliar Fungicides Containing FRAC 11 Mitigate Phomopsis Stem Canker in Sunflower (Helianthus annuus)

Phomopsis stem canker reduces yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) up to or exceeding 40%; however, management recommendations have not been developed for U.S. farmers. Between 2009 and 2020, foliar fungicide trials were conducted in Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota for a total of 49 location-years. Random effects meta-analyses were performed on the disease severity index (DSI) and yield data collected from the foliar fungicide trials to determine the overall and individual effectiveness of the tested fungicides. Effect sizes, Cohen's f or Hedges' g, were calculated as the difference in DSI or yield between the fungicide treatment and nontreated control (NTC) divided by the pooled SD. The pooled Cohen's f for DSI and yield was 0.40 (95% CI = [0.29, 0.42]), indicating a large effect size and that fungicide treatments had a significant effect on DSI and yield (P < 0.0001). Among the fungicide groups, quinone outside inhibitor (QoI) (DSI [k = 45; g = -0.47] and yield [k = 46; g = 0.41]) is moderately effective and premixes of demethylation inhibitors (DMI), succinate dehydrogenase inhibitors (SDHI), and QoI (DMI + SDHI + QoI) (DSI [k = 3; g = -0.79] and yield [k = 3; g = 0.94]) are largely effective in comparison with NTC. Upon performing prediction analyses, the probability of not recovering the fungicide application cost (P_loss) associated with QoI (pyraclostrobin) was <0.35 for a range of sunflower grain prices suggesting a greater probability of return on investment from a single application of fungicide. Overall, our study suggests that the use of QoI fungicides is likely to be profitable in the presence of Phomopsis stem canker (DSI > 5%).

Postoperative Application of Dexmedetomidine is the Optimal Strategy to Reduce the Incidence of Postoperative Delirium After Cardiac Surgery: A Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Previous pairwise meta-analyses demonstrated the efficacy and safety of dexmedetomidine in preventing postoperative delirium (POD) after cardiac surgery; however, the optimal time of applying dexmedetomidine remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This network meta-analysis aimed to determine the optimal time of using dexmedetomidine to reduce the incidence of POD following cardiac surgery.

METHODS

We first retrieved eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from previous meta-analyses, and then an updated search was performed to identify additional RCTs in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library from January 1, 2021 to October 31, 2021. Two authors screened literature, collected data, and evaluated bias risk of eligible studies. Finally, we performed Bayesian network analysis using R version 3.6.1 with the "gemtc" and "rjags" package.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies with 2636 patients were included, and all studies were identified from previous meta-analyses. Results showed that postoperative dexmedetomidine reduced the risk of POD compared with normal saline (NS) (odds ratio [OR], 0.13; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.03-0.35) and propofol (PRO) (OR, 0.19; 95%CrI, 0.04-0.66). Postoperative dexmedetomidine was associated with a lower incidence of POD compared with perioperative dexmedetomidine (OR, 0.21; 95% CrI, 0.04-0.82). Moreover, postoperative dexmedetomidine had the highest probability of ranking best (90.98%), followed by intraoperative dexmedetomidine (46.83%), PRO (36.94%), perioperative dexmedetomidine (30.85%), and NS (60.02%).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

Dexmedetomidine reduces the incidence of POD compared with PRO and NS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, and postoperative application of dexmedetomidine is the optimal time.

Divergent response of hay and grain yield of oat: effects of environmental factors and sowing rate

BACKGROUND

Oat (Avena sativa L.) is recognized for its impressive productivity in marginal environments, and the sowing rate is an important crop management practice that potentially enhances oat productivity. Previous studies have reported the effect of sowing rate on oat yield; however, the results from such studies are inconsistent. Thus, based on 43 studies across eight countries, this study aimed to assess changes in hay and grain yields in response to sowing rate and, in combination with a boosted regression tree, to evaluate and rank the dominant factors (e.g. climate conditions, soil conditions, and sowing rate) affecting changes in hay and grain yields of oat.

RESULTS

The results revealed that increasing the sowing rate significantly increased the response ratio of grain yields and hay yields by averages of 7.3% and 7.9% respectively. However, the response ratios of grain yields and hay yields in response to changes in sowing rate were affected by different factors. Climate condition and mean annual precipitation primarily affected the response ratios of hay yields, whereas the sowing rate dominated changes in the response ratios of grain yields, with the response ratios of grain yields peaking at a sowing rate of 85 kg ha^-1 .

CONCLUSION

Optimizing the sowing rate with site-specific environmental conditions could be a potential strategy for profitable oat production, given that oat can be produced under marginal environments (e.g. cool-wet climates and soil with low fertility). © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Common resistance mechanisms are deployed by plants against sap-feeding herbivorous insects: insights from a meta-analysis and systematic review

Despite their abundance and economic importance, the mechanism of plant resistance to sap-feeding insects remains poorly understood. Here we deploy meta-analysis and data synthesis methods to evaluate the results from electrophysiological studies describing feeding behaviour experiments where resistance mechanisms were identified, focussing on studies describing host-plant resistance and non-host resistance mechanisms. Data were extracted from 108 studies, comprising 41 insect species across eight insect taxa and 12 host-plant families representing over 30 species. Results demonstrate that mechanisms deployed by resistant plants have common consequences on the feeding behaviour of diverse insect groups. We show that insects feeding on resistant plants take longer to establish a feeding site and have their feeding duration suppressed two-fold compared with insects feeding on susceptible plants. Our results reveal that traits contributing towards resistant phenotypes are conserved across plant families, deployed against taxonomically diverse insect groups, and that the underlying resistance mechanisms are conserved. These findings provide a new insight into plant-insect interaction and highlight the need for further mechanistic studies across diverse taxa.

Control Efficiency and Yield Response of Chemical and Biological Treatments against Fruit Rot of Arecanut: A Network Meta-Analysis

Fruit rot disease (FRD) in arecanut has appeared in most of the arecanut growing regions of India in the last few decades. A few comprehensive studies on the management of FRD under field conditions have examined various treatment combinations for disease control and yield response analysis. This study aimed to compare the control efficiencies and yield responses of treatments applied over multiple locations and compute the probable returns of investment (ROIs) for treatment costs. Data were gathered from 21 field trials conducted across five main arecanut growing regions of India in the period 2012−2019. The collected data were subjected to analysis with a multivariate (network) meta-analytical model, following standard statistical protocols. The quantitative, synthesized data were evaluated for the estimated effects of disease pressure (DPLow ≤ 35% of FRDInc in the treatments > DPHigh), mean disease control efficiencies (treatment mean, C), and yield responses (R) corresponding to the tested treatments. Based on disease control efficacy, the evaluated treatments were grouped into three efficacy groups (EGs): higher EGs were observed for the Bordeaux mixture (C, 81.94%) and its stabilized formulation (C, 74.99%), Metalaxyl + Mancozeb (C, 70.66%), while lower EGs were observed in plots treated with Biofight (C, 29.91%), Biopot (C, 25.66%), and Suraksha (C, 29.74%) and intermediate EGs were observed in plots to which microbial consortia (bio-agents) had been applied. Disease pressure acted as a significant moderator variable, influencing yield response and gain. At DPLow, the Bordeaux fungicide mixture (102%, 22% of increased yield) and Metalaxyl + Mancozeb (77.5%, +15.5%) exhibited higher yield responses, with absolute arecanut yield gains of 916.5 kg ha−1 and 884 kg ha−1, while, under DPHigh, Fosetyl-AL (819.6 kg ha−1) showed a yield response of 90.5%. To ensure maximum yield sustainability, arecanut growers should focus on the spraying of fungicides (a mixture of different active ingredients or formulations or products) as a preventative measure, followed by treating palms with either soil microbial consortia or commercial formulations of organic fungicides.

Oxathiapiprolin Alone or Mixed with Metalaxyl Seed Treatment for Management of Soybean Seedling Diseases Caused by Species of Phytophthora, Phytopythium, and Pythium

Species of Phytophthora, Phytopythium, and Pythium affect soybean seed and seedlings each year, primarily through reduced plant populations and yield. Oxathiapiprolin is effective at managing several foliar diseases caused by some oomycetes. The objectives of these studies were to evaluate oxathiapiprolin in a discriminatory dose assay in vitro; evaluate oxathiapiprolin as a soybean seed treatment on a moderately susceptible cultivar in 10 environments; compare the impact of seed treatment on plant populations and yields in environments with low and high precipitation; and compare a seed treatment mixture on cultivars with different levels of resistance in four environments. There was no reduction in growth in vitro among 13 species of Pythium at 0.1 µg ml-1. Soybean seed treated with the base fungicide plus oxathiapiprolin (12 and 24 µg a.i. seed-1) alone, oxathiapiprolin (12 µg a.i. seed-1) plus mefenoxam (6 µg a.i. seed-1), or oxathiapiprolin (24 µg a.i. seed-1) plus ethaboxam (12.1 µg a.i. seed-1) had greater yields in environments that received ≥50 mm of precipitation within 14 days after planting compared with those that received less. Early plant population and yield were significantly higher for seed treated with oxathiapiprolin (24 µg a.i. seed-1) + metalaxyl (13.2 µg a.i. seed-1) compared with nontreated for six of seven cultivars in at least one of four environments. Oxathiapiprolin combined with another Oomycota fungicide applied to seed has the potential to be used to protect soybean plant establishment and yield in regions prone to poor drainage after high levels of precipitation.

Efficacy of Fungicides Used to Manage Downy Mildew in Cucumber Assessed with Multiple Meta-Analysis Techniques

A nationwide, quantitative synthesis of fungicide efficacy data on management of cucurbit downy mildew (CDM) caused by Pseudoperonospora cubensis is needed to broadly evaluate fungicide performance. Three-level meta-analysis, three-level meta-regression, and network meta-analyses were conducted on data from 46 cucumber (Cucumis sativus) CDM fungicide efficacy studies conducted in the eastern United States retrieved from Plant Disease Management Reports published between 2009 and 2018. Three response variables were examined in each analysis: disease severity, marketable yield, and total yield, from which percent disease control and percent yield return compared with nontreated controls was calculated. Moderator variables used in the three-level meta-analysis or three-level meta-regression included year, disease pressure, number of fungicide applications, and slicing or pickling cucumbers. In the network meta-analysis, fungicides were grouped by common combinations of Fungicide Resistance Action Committee Codes and modes of action. Overall, fungicides significantly (P < 0.001) reduced disease severity and increased marketable and total yields, resulting in a mean 54.0% disease control and 61.9% marketable and 73.3% total yield return. Subgroup differences were observed for several fungicide applications, control plot disease severity, and cucumber type for marketable yield. Based on the meta-regression analysis for disease severity by year, fungicide efficacy has been decreasing from 2009 to 2018, potentially indicating broad development of fungicide resistance over time. Treatments containing quinone inside inhibitors, pyridinylmethyl-benzamides, and protectants and treatments containing oxysterol binding protein inhibitors and protectants most effectively reduced disease severity. The most effective fungicide combinations for disease control did not always result in the highest yield return.

A reassessment of the fungicidal efficacy of 1,3-dichloropropene, chloropicrin, and metam potassium against Macrophomina phaseolina in strawberry

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of metam potassium, 1,3-dichloropropene, chloropicrin, and different ratios of 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin on the reduction of natural and artificial inoculum of Macrophomina phaseolina were investigated in laboratory and field experiments. Additionally, a multivariate meta-analysis with data from six field trials conducted in Florida from 2012 to 2018 was performed.

RESULTS

In small-plot field experiments using drip stakes, the highest rate (468 L ha^-1 ) of metam potassium was most effective in controlling M. phaseolina in infected crowns buried at 15.2 cm from the point of fumigant injection, whereas none of the rates was able to reduce inoculum buried at 30.5 cm. In closed-container experiments, use of the highest rate of 1,3-dichloropropene (168 kg ha^-1 ) resulted in the highest level of pathogen control. Different rates of chloropicrin also reduced inoculum when compared to the non-treated control. 1,3-dichloropropene + chloropicrin at different ratios were also highly effective in controlling M. phaseolina. Results from the meta-analysis of open-field experiments indicated that metam potassium and 1,3-dichloropropene + chloropicrin (63:35, v:v) treatments were significantly more effective in reducing M. phaseolina than the 1,3-dichloropropene + chloropicrin (39:60, v:v) treatment; however, metam potassium was not as effective at the side of the beds.

CONCLUSION

1,3-dichloropropene alone and in mixture with chloropicrin were more effective in reducing inoculum of M. phaseolina than chloropicrin alone, indicating the fungicidal efficacy of 1,3-dichloropropene. Formulation with higher 1,3-dichloropropene concentration performed better than the formulation with higher chloropicrin concentration in field trials. Metam potassium was effective when applied at the highest rate, but with limited lateral movement perpendicular to the drip irrigation line. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Addition of Capecitabine to Adjuvant Chemotherapy May be the Most Effective Strategy for Patients With Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Network Meta-Analysis of 9 Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Previous studies determined the therapeutic effects of capecitabine-based chemotherapy regimens on early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). However, the optimal strategy of capecitabine-based chemotherapy remains uncertain. We conducted this network meta-analysis to address this issue.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Registry of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) to retrieve eligible studies published before September 2021. Two independent reviewers extracted information from eligible studies using a pre-designed data extraction sheet. The primary outcome included disease-free survival, and the second outcome showed overall survival and adverse events. Direct meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4, and Bayesian network analysis was performed using R version 3.6.1 with the "gemtc" and "rjags" packages.

RESULTS

Nine studies involving 3661 TNBC patients met the selection criteria. The network meta-analysis suggested that the addition of capecitabine to adjuvant chemotherapy achieved a significantly longer disease-free (HR = 0.66, 95% CrI = 0.49 to 0.86) and overall survival time (HR = 0.60, 95% CrI = 0.43 to 0.83) than standard chemotherapy. All comparisons did not achieve statistical significance. The addition of capecitabine to adjuvant chemotherapy was the most effective treatment for improving disease-free (81.24%) and overall survival (78.46%) times, and the replacement of capecitabine to adjuvant chemotherapy was the safest regime.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on available evidence, capecitabine-based chemotherapy benefits TNBC patients, and the addition of capecitabine with adjuvant chemotherapy was the most effective regime. In contrast, the replacement of capecitabine to adjuvant chemotherapy was the safest regime. More studies of high quality and large scale are needed to confirm our findings.

How to observe the principle of concurrent control in an arm-based meta-analysis using SAS procedures GLIMMIX and BGLIMM

Network meta-analysis is a popular method to synthesize the information obtained in a systematic review of studies (e.g. randomized clinical trials) involving subsets of multiple treatments of interest. The dominant method of analysis employs within-study information on treatment contrasts and integrates this over a network of studies. One advantage of this approach is that all inference is protected by within-study randomization. By contrast, arm-based analyses have been criticized in the past because they may also recover inter-study information when studies are modelled as random, which is the dominant practice, hence violating the principle of concurrent control, requiring treated individuals to only be compared directly with randomized controls. This issue arises regardless of whether analysis is implemented within a frequentist or a Bayesian framework. Here, we argue that recovery of inter-study information can be prevented in an arm-based analysis by adding a fixed study main effect. This simple device means that it is possible to honour the principle of concurrent control in a two-way analysis-of-variance approach that is very easy to implement using generalized linear mixed model procedures and hence may be particularly welcome to those not well versed in the more intricate coding required for a contrast-based analysis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Effects of Transcranial Direct Durrent Stimulation on Post-stroke Dysphagia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE

This review aimed to systematically evaluate the effect of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) on post-stroke dysphagia.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), Web of Science, VIP, CNKI, and Wanfang databases were systematically searched up to June 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the effects of tDCS on post-stroke dysphagia DATA EXTRACTION: The extracted data included the author, country of publication, time of publication, key elements of bias risk assessment (such as randomized controlled trials and blind methods), sample size and basic information (age, course of disease, stroke location), intervention measures, treatment methods of tDCS (stimulation location, intensity, and duration), relevant outcome indicators, and relevant data (standard deviations).The Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and PEDro Scale were used to assess the risk of bias.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Sixteen RCTs were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the results revealed a large and statistically significant pooled effect size (0.80, CI 0.45-1.14; p<0.00001). The subgroup that explored the course of the disease yielded a large and significant effect size for the chronic phase group (0.80, CI 0.43-1.16; p<0.0001). For the stimulation intensity, 1 mA and 1.6 mA showed a moderate and significant effect sizes (0.47, CI 0.13-0.81; p=0.006 vs 1.39, CI 0.69-2.08; p<0.0001). In the subgroup analyses, the affected (0.87, CI 0.26-1.48; p=0.005) vs. unaffected (0.61, CI 0.23-0.99; p=0.002) hemisphere showed a significant result, and stimulation of the affected hemisphere had a more obvious effect. Subgroup analysis of stroke location showed that tDCS was effective for dysphagia after unilateral hemispheric stroke, bulbar paralysis, and brainstem stroke but not for dysphagia after ataxic and basal ganglia stroke. However, the subgroup analysis of stroke location revealed a significant result (0.81, CI 0.44-1.18; p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis demonstrated the height and significant beneficial effect of tDCS on improving post-stroke dysphagia.

Timing of Triazole-Based Spray Schedules for Managing Mungbean Powdery Mildew in Australia: A Meta-Analysis

Powdery mildew (PM), caused by two fungal species, Podosphaera xanthii and Erysiphe vignae, is a yield-limiting foliar disease commonly found in mungbean (Vigna radiata) cropping areas of the eastern region of Australia. Effective control of the disease relies largely on fungicide applications, mainly of the triazole group. Uncertainty in the current fungicide spray schedule recommendations, which advise commencing with a spray at the first signs of PM, prompted this study to evaluate PM severity and crop yield data obtained from fungicide trials, which also tested spray schedules starting before (early) or after (late) first signs, applied singly or combined with a follow-up spray. A meta-analytic approach was used to obtain mean differences of the PM severity and crop yield between plots sprayed with specific triazole-based spray schedules and nontreated plots. From 26 trials, 14 trials and 15 trials met the criteria for inclusion in PM severity and yield analyses, respectively. The schedule with the first spray starting at first sign, with a follow-up spray 14 days later, resulted in significantly lower disease severity compared with all other schedules. However, the yield protected was only numerically higher and not statistically different compared with single-spray at first sign, single-spray late, or two-spray starting late. PM severity and yield in the early sprayed plots did not differ from the nontreated plots. These findings support the current recommendations and provide additional evidence that yields are still protected when delaying the first spray up to a week after disease onset. They also suggest that additional sprays may not always be necessary, thus reducing direct fungicide costs, indirect costs related to fungicide insensitivity, and potential adverse effects to the environment.

A Global Network Meta-Analysis of the Promotion of Crop Growth, Yield, and Quality by Bioeffectors

Bioeffector (BE) application is emerging as a strategy for achieving sustainable agricultural practices worldwide. However, the effect of BE on crop growth and quality is still controversial and there is still no adequate impact assessment that determines factors on the efficiency of BE application. Therefore, we carried out a network metaanalysis on the effect of BEs using 1,791 global observations from 186 studies to summarize influencing factors and the impact of BEs on crop growth, quality, and nutrient contents. The results show that BEs did not only improve plant growth by around 25% and yield by 30%, but also enhanced crop quality, e.g., protein (55% increase) and soluble solids content (75% increase) as well as aboveground nitrogen (N) and phosphate (P) content by 28 and 40%, respectively. The comparisons among BE types demonstrated that especially non-microbial products, such as extracts and humic/amino acids, have the potential to increase biomass growth by 40-60% and aboveground P content by 54-110%. The soil pH strongly influenced the efficiency of the applied BE with the highest effects in acidic soils. Our results showed that BEs are most suitable for promoting the quality of legumes and increasing the yield of fruits, herbs, and legumes. We illustrate that it is crucial to optimize the application of BEs with respect to the right application time and technique (e.g., placement, foliar). Our results provide an important basis for future research on the mechanisms underlying crop improvement by the application of BEs and on the development of new BE products.

Bayesian multivariate network meta-analysis model for the difference in restricted mean survival times

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is essential for clinical decision-making. NMA enables inference for all pair-wise comparisons between interventions available for the same indication, by using both direct evidence and indirect evidence. In randomized trials with time-to event outcome data, such as lung cancer data, conventional NMA methods rely on the hazard ratio and the proportional hazards assumption, and ignore the varying follow-up durations across trials. We introduce a novel multivariate NMA model for the difference in restricted mean survival times (RMST). Our model synthesizes all the available evidence from multiple time points simultaneously and borrows information across time points through within-study covariance and between-study covariance for the differences in RMST. We propose an estimator of the within-study covariance and we then assume it to be known. We estimate the model under the Bayesian framework. We evaluated our model by conducting a simulation study. Our multiple-time-point model yields lower mean squared error over the conventional single-time-point model at all time points, especially when the availability of evidence decreases. We illustrated the model on a network of randomized trials of second-line treatments of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Our multiple-time-point model yielded increased precision and detected evidence of benefit at earlier time points as compared to the single-time-point model. Our model has the advantage of providing clinically interpretable measures of treatment effects.

Sequential Post-Heading Applications for Controlling Wheat Blast: A 9-Year Summary of Fungicide Performance in Brazil

Wheat blast, caused by Pyricularia oryzae Triticum lineage, is a major constraint to wheat production, mainly in the tropics of Brazil, where severe epidemics have been more frequent. We analyzed disease and wheat yield data from 42 uniform field trials conducted over 9 years (2012 to 2020) to assess whether the percent control and yield response were influenced by fungicide type, region (tropical or subtropical), and year. Six treatments were selected, all evaluated in at least 19 trials. Two fungicides were applied as solo active ingredients (MANCozeb, and TEBUconazole), and four were premixes (AZOXystrobin plus TEBU, TriFLoXystrobin plus PROThioconazole, TFLX plus TEBU, and PYRAclostrobin plus EPOXiconazole). Percent control, calculated from back-transforming estimates by a meta-analysis network model fitted to the log of the means, ranged from 43 to 58%, with all but PYRA plus EPOX showing efficacy >52% on average, not differing among them. The variation in both efficacy and yield response was explained by region, and all but TEBU performed better in the subtropics than in the tropics. Yield response from using three sequential sprays was approximately two times greater in the subtropics (319 to 532 kg/ha) than in the tropics (149 to 241.3 kg/ha). No significant decline in fungicide efficacy or yield response was observed in 9 years of study for any of the fungicides. These results reinforce the need to improve control by adopting an integrated management approach in the tropics given poorer performance and lower profitability, especially for the premixes, than in the subtropics.

A Meta-Analytical Assessment of the Aggregation Parameter of the Binary Power Law for Characterizing Spatial Heterogeneity of Plant Disease Incidence

The binary power law (BPL) is often used to characterize spatial heterogeneity of disease incidence. A hierarchical mixed model, coupled with multiple imputation to randomly generate any missing standard errors, was used to conduct a meta-analysis of >200 published values of the estimated aggregation (b) parameter of the BPL. Approximately 50% of estimated b values ranged from 1.1 to 1.3. Moderator variable analysis showed that the number of individuals per sampling unit (n) had a strong positive effect on b, with a linear relation between estimated b and ln(n). Estimated expected value of b for the population of published regressions at a reference n of 15 was 1.22. The increase in the variance due to the imputations was only 0.03, and the efficiency exceeded 0.98. Results were confirmed with an alternative mixed model that considered a range of possible within-trial correlations of the estimated b values and with a random-coefficient mixed model fitted to the subset of the data. Cropping system, dispersal mode, and pathogen type all had significant effects on b, with annuals having larger expected value than woody perennials, soilborne and rain-splashed dispersed pathogens having the largest expected values for dispersal mode, and bacteria and oomycetes having the largest expected values for pathogen type. However, there was considerable variation within each of the levels of the moderators, and the differences of expected values from smallest to largest were small, ≤0.16. Results are discussed in relation to previously published findings from stochastic simulations.

Are Demethylation Inhibitor Plus Quinone Outside Inhibitor Fungicide Premixes During Flowering Worthwhile for Fusarium Head Blight Control in Wheat? A Meta-Analysis

Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused mainly by Fusarium graminearum, is best controlled with demethylation inhibitor (DMI) fungicides during flowering. However, the use of premixes of DMI and quinone outside inhibitor (QoI) fungicides to control FHB has increased in Brazil. Data on FHB severity and wheat yields measured in field experiments conducted in Brazil were gathered from both peer- and nonpeer-reviewed sources published from 2000 to 2018. After selection criteria were applied, 73 field trials from 35 bibliographic sources were identified, among which 50% of the data were obtained from cooperative network trials conducted after 2011. To be included in the analysis, DMI plus QoI premixes or tebuconazole were tested in at least 14 trials and 3 years. Four premixes met the criteria. Estimates of percent control (and respective 95% confidence intervals) by a network model fitted to the log of the treatment means ranged from 44.1% (pyraclostrobin plus metconazole applied once; 32.4 to 53.7) to 64.3% (pyraclostrobin plus metconazole; 58.4 to 69.3); the latter did not differ from tebuconazole (59.9%; 53.6 to 65.3). Yield response was statistically similar for pyraclostrobin plus metconazole (532.1 kg/ha; 441 to 623) and trifloxystrobin plus prothioconazole (494.9 kg/ha; 385 to 551), and both differed statistically from a group composed of tebuconazole (448.2 kg/ha; 342 to 554), trifloxystrobin plus tebuconazole (468.2 kg/ha; 385 to 551), azoxystrobin plus tebuconazole (462.4 kg/ha; 366 to 558), and pyraclostrobin plus metconazole applied once (413.7 kg/ha; 308 to 518). The two categories of FHB index (7% cutoff) and yield (3,000 kg/ha cutoff), both in the nontreated check, did not explain the heterogeneity in the estimates. Considering only the fungicide effects on yield, two sequential sprays of tebuconazole or one spray of pyraclostrobin plus metconazole as management choices are likely more profitable than DMI plus QoI premixes sprayed twice during flowering.

Cultivar Selection Is an Effective and Economic Strategy for Managing Charcoal Rot of Strawberry in Florida

Macrophomina phaseolina, the causal agent of charcoal rot, is a soilborne pathogen that affects strawberry crowns leading to plant wilt and collapse. Disease management involves a combination of physical, cultural, and chemical methods. Field trials were conducted for 10 consecutive Florida seasons (2010-11 to 2019-20) to determine the susceptibility of strawberry cultivars to charcoal rot and the effect of cultivar selection on disease and to estimate the economic impact of cultivar selection on disease management. Six cultivars grown commercially in Florida were chosen and grouped as highly susceptible (HS) ('Strawberry Festival' and 'Treasure'), susceptible (S) ('Florida Radiance' and 'Florida Beauty'), and moderately resistant (MR) (Sensation 'Florida127' and Winterstar 'FL05-107') according to their susceptibility levels. After a primary analysis of the individual trials, a network meta-analysis was conducted to estimate and compare the final disease incidence and the disease progress rate of each susceptibility group. The economic impact of charcoal rot on strawberry production and gross revenue was estimated based on plant production functions, weekly fruit prices, and disease progress over time with parameters obtained via the meta-analytical models. Disease incidence was reduced by 91.5 and 77.3%, respectively, when the MR and S cultivar groups were adopted instead of the HS group. There was a 62.5% reduction in the disease incidence when the MR group was used instead of the S group. Significant differences in disease progress rates were also observed when the MR and S groups were adopted instead of the HS group. Therefore, the adoption of more resistant cultivars is an effective strategy when incorporated into a charcoal rot integrated management program and can significantly impact growers' revenue by reducing disease incidence, preventing yield loss, and, consequently, minimizing economic losses.

Validation of a Decision Support System for Blueberry Anthracnose and Fungicide Sensitivity of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides Isolates

Blueberry is an increasingly important crop in Florida. Anthracnose fruit rot (AFR), caused mostly by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, is favored by long wetness periods and temperatures from 15 to 27°C. Currently, the model in the Strawberry Advisory System (StAS) guides fungicide applications targeting strawberry AFR. Given the similarity between blueberry and strawberry AFR, we hypothesized that the model used in StAS could be used in a decision support system (DSS) built for blueberry AFR. There is no information on inhibition posed by fungicides on C. gloeosporioides isolates from blueberry. Our objectives were to demonstrate that the model used in the StAS could be used for blueberry AFR management in Florida and to assess the sensitivity of isolates to fungicides. Four trials were undertaken in blueberry fields in Florida during two seasons to compare the effectiveness of fungicide applications according to the model with that of the growers' standard calendar. Sensitivity of blueberry C. gloeosporioides isolates to azoxystrobin, benzovindiflupyr, penthiopyrad, pydiflumetofen, boscalid, thiophanate-methyl, fluazinam, and fludioxonil was evaluated. AFR incidence and yield were compared between treatments. Following recommendations from the model resulted in disease control as effective as the standard program and in some cases with fewer applications. All isolates were sensitive to benzovindiflupyr, penthiopyrad, fluazinam, and fludioxonil. Low frequency of in vitro inhibition of isolates by azoxystrobin, pydiflumetofen, boscalid, and thiophanate-methyl should raise concern about fungicide resistance. Our results indicate that the model used in StAS could be used in a DSS to help Florida growers to manage AFR in blueberry.

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation for lower extremity motor function in patients with stroke: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Transcranial magnetic stimulation, a type of noninvasive brain stimulation, has become an ancillary therapy for motor function rehabilitation. Most previous studies have focused on the effects of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) on motor function in stroke patients. There have been relatively few studies on the effects of different modalities of rTMS on lower extremity motor function and corticospinal excitability in patients with stroke. The MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, ISI Science Citation Index, Physiotherapy Evidence Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched. Parallel or crossover randomized controlled trials that addressed the effectiveness of rTMS in patients with stroke, published from inception to November 28, 2019, were included. Standard pairwise meta-analysis was conducted using R version 3.6.1 with the “meta” package. Bayesian network analysis using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of different rTMS protocol interventions. Network meta-analysis results of 18 randomized controlled trials regarding lower extremity motor function recovery revealed that low-frequency rTMS had better efficacy in promoting lower extremity motor function recovery than sham stimulation. Network meta-analysis results of five randomized controlled trials demonstrated that high-frequency rTMS led to higher amplitudes of motor evoked potentials than low-frequency rTMS or sham stimulation. These findings suggest that rTMS can improve motor function in patients with stroke, and that low-frequency rTMS mainly affects motor function, whereas high-frequency rTMS increases the amplitudes of motor evoked potentials. More high-quality randomized controlled trials are needed to validate this conclusion. The work was registered in PROSPERO (registration No. CRD42020147055) on April 28, 2020.

Stability of Hybrid Maize Reaction to Gibberella Ear Rot and Deoxynivalenol Contamination of Grain

Trials were conducted to quantify the stability (or lack of G × E interaction) of 15 maize hybrids to Gibberella ear rot (GER; caused by Fusarium graminearum) and deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination of grain across 30 Ohio environments (3 years × 10 locations). In each environment, one plot of each hybrid was planted and 10 ears per plot were inoculated via the silk channel. GER severity (proportion of ear area diseased) and DON contamination of grain (ppm) were quantified. Multiple rank-based methods, including Kendall's concordance coefficient (W) and Piepho's U, were used to quantify hybrid stability. The results found insufficient evidence to suggest crossover G × E interaction of ranks, with W greater than zero for GER (W = 0.28) and DON (W = 0.26), and U not statistically significant for either variable (P > 0.20). Linear mixed models (LMMs) were also used to quantify hybrid stability, accounting for crossover or noncrossover G × E interaction of transformed observed data. Based on information criteria and likelihood ratio tests for GER and DON response variables, the models with more complex variance-covariance structures-heterogeneous compound symmetry and factor-analytic-provided a better fit than the model with the simpler compound symmetry structure, indicating that one or more hybrids differed in stability. Overall, hybrids were stable based on rank-based methods, which indicated a lack of crossover G × E interaction, but the LMMs identified a few hybrids that were sensitive to environment. Resistant hybrids were generally more stable than susceptible hybrids.

Is Disease Intensity a Good Surrogate for Yield Loss or Toxin Contamination? A Case Study with Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat

Sometimes plant pathologists assess disease intensity when they are primarily interested in other response variables, such as yield loss or toxin concentration in harvested products. In these situations, disease intensity potentially could be considered a surrogate of yield or toxin. A surrogate is a variable which can be used instead of the variable of interest in the evaluation of experimental treatments or in making predictions. Surrogates can be measured earlier, more conveniently, or more cheaply than the variable of primary interest, but the reliability or validity of the surrogate must be shown. We demonstrate ways of quantifying two facets of surrogacy by using a protocol originally developed by Buyse and colleagues for medical research. Coefficient-of-determination type statistics can be used to conveniently assess the strength of surrogacy on a unitless scale. As a case study, we evaluated whether field severity of Fusarium head blight (i.e., FHB index) can be used as a surrogate for yield loss and deoxynivalenol (DON) toxin concentration in harvested wheat grain. Bivariate mixed models and corresponding approximations were fitted to data from 82 uniform fungicide trials conducted from 2008 to 2013. Individual-level surrogacy-for predicting the variable of interest (yield or DON) from the surrogate (index) in plots with the same treatment-was very low. Trial-level surrogacy-for predicting the effect of treatment (e.g., mean difference) for the variable of interest based on the effect of the treatment on the surrogate (index)-was moderate for yield, and only low for DON. Challenges in using disease severity as a surrogate for yield and toxin are discussed.

Nonpharmacologic Interventions for Reducing Blood Pressure in Adults With Prehypertension to Established Hypertension

Background

Nonpharmacologic interventions that modify lifestyle can lower blood pressure (BP) and have been assessed in numerous randomized controlled trials and pairwise meta‐analyses. It is still unclear which intervention would be most efficacious.

Methods and Results

Bayesian network meta‐analyses were performed to estimate the comparative effectiveness of different interventions for lowering BP. From 60 166 potentially relevant articles, 120 eligible articles (14 923 participants) with a median follow‐up of 12 weeks, assessing 22 nonpharmacologic interventions, were included. According to the surface under the cumulative ranking probabilities and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) quality of evidence, for adults with prehypertension to established hypertension, high‐quality evidence indicated that the Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) was superior to usual care and all other nonpharmacologic interventions in lowering systolic BP (weighted mean difference, 6.97 mm Hg; 95% credible interval, 4.50–9.47) and diastolic BP (weighted mean difference, 3.54 mm Hg; 95% credible interval, 1.80–5.28). Compared with usual care, moderate‐ to high‐quality evidence indicated that aerobic exercise, isometric training, low‐sodium and high‐potassium salt, comprehensive lifestyle modification, breathing‐control, and meditation could lower systolic BP and diastolic BP. For patients with hypertension, moderate‐ to high‐quality evidence suggested that the interventions listed (except comprehensive lifestyle modification) were associated with greater systolic BP and diastolic BP reduction than usual care; salt restriction was also effective in lowering both systolic BP and diastolic BP. Among overweight and obese participants, low‐calorie diet and low‐calorie diet plus exercise could lower more BP than exercise.

Conclusions

DASH might be the most effective intervention in lowering BP for adults with prehypertension to established hypertension. Aerobic exercise, isometric training, low‐sodium and high‐potassium salt, comprehensive lifestyle modification, salt restriction, breathing‐control, meditation and low‐calorie diet also have obvious effects on BP reduction.

Non-pharmacological interventions for depressive disorder in patients after traumatic brain injury: A protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Depressive disorder has gradually become one of the most commonly reported disabling psychiatric complication that occurs after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Currently classical antidepressant medications may not have the same effectiveness in patients with TBI as in patients without TBI. Non-pharmacological interventions have been considered to be effective for managing depressive symptoms or treating depressive disorder. But to date the comparative effectiveness of various types of non-pharmacological interventions has been synthesized in few studies, the evidence remains inconclusive. Thus, the purpose of this systematic review and network meta-analyses is to summarize high-quality evidence and identify the most effective non-pharmacological intervention when applied to treat the depressive disorder in patients after TBI.

METHODS

The comprehensive literature search in electronic database including PubMed, Ovid Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science database, Embase Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang Data Chinese database from inception to the search date. Only high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that have used non-pharmacological interventions to treat depressive disorder after TBI will be considered. Two independent reviewers will identify eligible studies, extract and manage data information, and then determine methodical quality of included studies. Overall efficacy will be assessed as primary outcome. Secondary outcomes involved treatment response, remission rate, overall acceptability, tolerability of treatment, social functioning, occurrence of adverse events, and suicide-related outcome. Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool will be adopted to assess the risk of bias. Study heterogeneity will be measured by the I statistic. Traditional pairwise meta-analyses will be performed using STATA, while WinBUGS with GeMTC package of R software will be used to carry out network meta-analysis.

RESULTS

This systematic review will examine the relative efficacy, effectiveness, safety, tolerability and acceptability of non-pharmacological interventions, and then to identify the most effective non-pharmacological intervention for depressive disorder after TBI.

EXPECTED CONCLUSION

Our work could be used to give clinical recommendations for practice guideline developers, psychiatrist, neurologist, policymakers, researchers as well as individual with depressive disorder after TBI, and will also identify gaps in knowledge that could be the subject of future research.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Neither ethics approval nor patient informed consent is necessary since this protocol was designed based on the existing literature. The results will be disseminated electronically or in print through publications in peer-reviewed scientific journal.

INPLASY REGISTRATION

INPLASY202080022.

Data synthesis for crop variety evaluation. A review

Crop varieties should fulfill multiple requirements, including agronomic performance and product quality. Variety evaluations depend on data generated from field trials and sensory analyses, performed with different levels of participation from farmers and consumers. Such multi-faceted variety evaluation is expensive and time-consuming; hence, any use of these data should be optimized. Data synthesis can help to take advantage of existing and new data, combining data from different sources and combining it with expert knowledge to produce new information and understanding that supports decision-making. Data synthesis for crop variety evaluation can partly build on extant experiences and methods, but it also requires methodological innovation. We review the elements required to achieve data synthesis for crop variety evaluation, including (1) data types required for crop variety evaluation, (2) main challenges in data management and integration, (3) main global initiatives aiming to solve those challenges, (4) current statistical approaches to combine data for crop variety evaluation and (5) existing data synthesis methods used in evaluation of varieties to combine different datasets from multiple data sources. We conclude that currently available methods have the potential to overcome existing barriers to data synthesis and could set in motion a virtuous cycle that will encourage researchers to share data and collaborate on data-driven research.

Peanut Yield Loss in the Presence of Defoliation Caused by Late or Early Leaf Spot

Late and early leaf spot, respectively caused by Nothopassalora personata and Passalora arachidicola, are damaging diseases of peanut (Arachis hypogaea) capable of defoliating canopies and reducing yield. Although one of these diseases may be more predominant in a given area, both are important on a global scale. To assist informed management decisions and quantify relationships between end-of-season defoliation and yield loss, meta-analyses were conducted over 140 datasets meeting established criteria. Slopes of proportion yield loss with increasing defoliation were estimated separately for Virginia and runner market type cultivars. Yield loss for Virginia types was described by an exponential function over the range of defoliation levels, with a loss increase of 1.2 to 2.2% relative to current loss levels per additional percent defoliation. Results for runner market type cultivars showed yield loss to linearly increase 2.2 to 2.8% per 10% increase in defoliation for levels up to approximately 95% defoliation, after which the rate of yield loss was exponential. Defoliation thresholds to prevent economic yield loss for Virginia and runner types were estimated at 40 and 50%, respectively. Although numerous factors remain important in mitigating overall yield losses, the integration of these findings should aid recommendations about digging under varying defoliation intensities and peanut maturities to assist in minimizing yield losses.

Efficacy and Profitability of Insecticide Treatments for Tomato Spotted Wilt Management on Peanut in South Carolina

Tomato spotted wilt (TSW) is a common and serious disease of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) caused by Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV; family Tospoviridae, genus Orthotospovirus). Management frequently uses an integrated approach, with cultivar resistance and application of in-furrow insecticide as two critical components. In-furrow insecticides help suppress thrips, which can injure and stunt young growing plants and transmit TSWV, with postemergent application of acephate capable of providing additional thrips control. To examine effects of systemic insecticides (imidacloprid, imidacloprid plus fluopyram, phorate, and acephate) on TSW management, yield, and economic return across cultivar susceptibilities (susceptible, moderately susceptible, and resistant) in South Carolina, a meta-analysis was used to synthesize results from 32 studies conducted between 2009 and 2018. Although efficacy and magnitude of individual treatments varied with susceptibility, imidacloprid increased, whereas phorate generally decreased TSW incidence relative to nontreated controls. In-furrow treatments followed by acephate further reduced TSW incidence and increased profitability. All examined treatments improved yield compared with untreated peanuts except for susceptible cultivars treated with imidacloprid. Imidacloprid plus fluopyram increased yield more than imidacloprid alone for the susceptible group, although there was little difference between these treatments in association with moderately susceptible cultivars. When comparing individual applications, phorate was overall the most profitable option across susceptibilities, although imidacloprid plus fluopyram exhibited analogous profitability for susceptible cultivars. Results from this study can be used to assist producer selection of management options for TSW in peanut.

Modeling Yield Losses and Fungicide Profitability for Managing Fusarium Head Blight in Brazilian Spring Wheat

Fusarium head blight (FHB) and wheat yield data were gathered from fungicide trials to explore their relationship. Thirty-seven studies over 9 years and 11 locations met the criteria for inclusion in the analysis: FHB index in the untreated check ≥ 5% and the range of index in a trial ≥ 4 percentage points. These studies were grouped into two baseline yields, low (Yl ≤ 3,631 kg ha^-1) or high (Yh > 3,631 kg ha^-1), defined based on the median of maximum yields across trials. Attainable (disease-free) yields and FHB index were predicted using a wheat crop and a disease model, respectively, in 280 simulated trials (10 planting dates in a 28-year period, 1980 to 2007) for the Passo Fundo location. The damage coefficient was then used to calculate FHB-induced yield loss (penalizing attainable yield) for each experiment. Losses were compared between periods defined as before and after FHB resurge during the early 1990s. Disease reduction from the use of one or two sprays of a triazole fungicide (tebuconazole) was also simulated, based on previous meta-analytic estimates, and the response in yield was used in a profitability analysis. Population-average intercepts but not the slopes differed significantly between Yl (2,883.6 kg ha^-1) and Yh (4,419.5 kg ha^-1) baseline yields and the damage coefficients were 1.60%^-1 and 1.05%^-1, respectively. The magnitudes and trends of simulated yield losses were in general agreement with literature reports. The risk of not offsetting the costs of one or two fungicide sprays was generally higher (>0.75) prior to FHB resurgence but fungicide profitability tended to increase in recent years, depending on the year. Our simulations allowed us to reproduce trends in historical losses, and may be further adjusted to test the effect and profitability of different control measures (host resistance, other fungicides, etc.) on quality parameters such as test weight and mycotoxin contamination, should the information become available.

Phenolic Compound Induction in Plant-Microbe and Plant-Insect Interactions: A Meta-Analysis

Plants rely on a variety of ways to protect themselves from being fed upon, including de novo production of specific compounds such as those termed as phenolics. Phenolics are often described as important in plant health and numerous studies have concluded they increase as a result of insect feeding, pathogen infection, or beneficial microorganism colonization. However, there are some studies reaching differing conclusions. Therefore, meta-analyses were conducted to observe whether common trends in phenolic induction in plants can be made when they become hosts to insects or microorganisms. Four hypotheses were tested. The first was that total phenolics increase as a generic response, and meta-analyses confirmed that this occurs when plants are infested with insects or colonized by bacterial or fungal microorganisms, but not for oomycetes. The second hypothesis was that phenolic induction is different when a beneficial microorganism colonizes a plant vs. when a plant is infected by a pathogen. Beneficial bacteria, pathogenic bacteria, and beneficial fungi produced increased phenolic levels in plant hosts, but fungal pathogens did not. The third hypothesis was that insect feeding method on plant hosts determines if phenolics are induced. Chewing induced phenolics but piercing-sucking and wood-boring did not. Lastly, we used meta-analyses to determine if annual or perennials rely on phenolic induction in different amounts, and even though annuals had significantly increased phenolic levels but perennials did not, it was observed that phenolic induction was not statistically different when plant type was considered. These results demonstrate that phenolic induction is a common response in plant hosts exposed to feeding or colonization, with specific exceptions such a pathogenic fungi and piercing-sucking insects.

Quantifying Control Efficacy of Fungicides Commonly Applied for Potato Early Blight Management

Early blight is an economically important foliar disease of potato in the United States. Because of the lack of resistant potato cultivars, fungicides are applied extensively to obtain adequate control. To manage early blight, standard protectant fungicides and single-site mode-of-action "specialty" fungicides are applied either alone or incorporated into a fungicide rotation program. Control efficacy at two crop growth stages (tuber initiation/early bulking and late bulking/tuber maturation) and the overall tuber yield response to standard and specialty fungicides were assessed using network metaanalytic models. Control efficacy of fungicides ranged from moderate to very high (>30 to 75%) compared with the nontreated control. For both potato growth stages, specialty fungicides performed better than standard protectant fungicides. Furthermore, control efficacy of both fungicides was higher (3 to 9%) at late bulking and tuber maturation when compared with early bulking crop growth stage. Specialty fungicide programs increased overall tuber yields by 4 and 9% over standard fungicides and nontreated control, respectively. Based on the results, more precise fungicide use recommendations and fungicide programs can be developed for early blight management.

A Quantitative Synthesis of the Efficacy and Profitability of Conventional and Biological Fungicides for Botrytis Fruit Rot Management on Strawberry in Florida

Botrytis fruit rot (BFR) is a major disease that affects strawberry production in Florida and worldwide. BFR management relies on frequent fungicide applications. A meta-analysis was conducted on the outcomes from nine field trials to evaluate the efficacy and profitability of conventional and biological fungicides compared with a nontreated control (NTC). All trials were conducted in Florida between the 2005/06 and 2016/17 growing seasons. Fungicide treatments were applied weekly, and plots were harvested twice a week for yield and BFR incidence quantification. Treatments were grouped into four categories: NTC, multisite only (Thiram), Standard (captan alternated with fludioxonil + cyprodinil), and Bacillus. Following primary analyses, a random effects network meta-analytical model was fitted to estimate the mean yield and BFR incidence responses for each treatment group and to compare means between pairs of groups. The Thiram and the Standard treatment groups increased yield by 378.8 and 502.2 kg/ha/week, respectively, compared with the NTC. The yield difference between Bacillus and NTC was not statistically significant. Besides increasing yield, Thiram and Standard also reduced BFR incidence by approximately 10% compared with the NTC. The mean yield responses and among-study variability from the meta-analysis were used to estimate the probability of a given yield response in a new future trial. The Standard and Thiram treatment groups showed higher estimated probabilities of increasing yield and resulting in a profitable return on application investments than the Bacillus group of treatments. The results from this study provide growers with information that will aid their decision-making process regarding BFR management.

Performance and Profitability of Fungicides for Managing Soybean White Mold: A 10-Year Summary of Cooperative Trials

White mold, caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, is a yield-limiting disease of soybean in Brazil. Uniform fungicide trials have been conducted annually since 2009. Data from 74 cooperative field trials conducted over a 10-year period were assembled. We selected five fungicides applied two times around flowering: dimoxystrobin plus boscalid (DIMO+BOSC), carbendazim plus procymidone (CARB+PROC), fluazinam (FLUZ), fluopyram (FLUO), and procymidone (PROC). For comparison, thiophanate-methyl (TMET) applied four times was also included as a low-cost treatment. Network models were fitted to the log of white mold incidence (percentages) and log of sclerotia mass data (grams/hectare) and to the nontransformed yield data (kilograms/hectare) for each treatment, including the untreated check. Back-transformation of the meta-analytic estimates indicated that the lowest and highest mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) percent reductions in incidence and sclerotia mass were 54.2 (49.3 to 58.7) and 51.6% (43.7 to 58.3) for TMET and 83.8 (79.1 to 87.5) and 87% (81.9 to 91.6) for CARB+PROC, respectively. The overall mean (95% CI) yield responses ranged from 323 kg/ha (247.4 to 400.3) for TMET to 626 kg/ha (521.7 to 731.7) for DIMO+BOSC, but the variance was significantly reduced by a binary variable (30% threshold) describing disease incidence in the untreated check. On average, an increment of 352 kg/ha was estimated for trials where the incidence was >30% compared with the low-disease scenario. Hence, the probability of breaking even on fungicide costs for the high-disease scenario was >65% for the more effective, but more expensive fungicide (FLUZ) than TMET. For the low-disease scenario, profitability was less likely and depended more on variations in fungicide cost and soybean price.

Meta-Analytic and Economic Approaches for Evaluation of Pesticide Impact on Sclerotinia Stem Rot Control and Soybean Yield in the North Central United States

As complete host resistance in soybean has not been achieved, Sclerotinia stem rot (SSR) caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum continues to be of major economic concern for farmers. Thus, chemical control remains a prevalent disease management strategy. Pesticide evaluations were conducted in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Wisconsin from 2009 to 2016, for a total of 25 site-years (n = 2,057 plot-level data points). These studies were used in network meta-analyses to evaluate the impact of 10 popular pesticide active ingredients, and seven common application timings on SSR control and yield benefit, compared with not treating with a pesticide. Boscalid and picoxystrobin frequently offered the best reductions in disease severity and best yield benefit (P < 0.0001). Pesticide applications (one- or two-spray programs) made during the bloom period provided significant reductions in disease severity index (DIX) (P < 0.0001) and led to significant yield benefits (P = 0.0009). Data from these studies were also used in nonlinear regression analyses to determine the effect of DIX on soybean yield. A three-parameter logistic model was found to best describe soybean yield loss (pseudo-R2 = 0.309). In modern soybean cultivars, yield loss due to SSR does not occur until 20 to 25% DIX, and considerable yield loss (-697 kg ha-1 or -10 bu acre-1) is observed at 68% DIX. Further analyses identified several pesticides and programs that resulted in greater than 60% probability for return on investment under high disease levels.

Do osteoconductive bone substitutes result in similar bone regeneration for maxillary sinus augmentation when compared to osteogenic and osteoinductive bone grafts? A systematic review and frequentist network meta-analysis

The purpose of this network meta-analysis was to identify the most effective biomaterials producing higher new bone formation (NBF) and lower residual graft (RG) and connective tissue (CT) following maxillary sinus augmentation (MSA), and to generate a ranking based on their performance. The MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published until March 2018, evaluating histomorphometric outcomes after MSA. Predictor variables were autogenous bone (AB), allografts (AG), xenografts (XG), alloplastic bone (AP), AB+XG, AB+AP, AG+XG, XG+AP, and grafts combined with autologous platelet concentrates/recombinant growth factors, mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), or recombinant bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs). Outcome variables were NBF%, RG%, and CT%. Healing time was considered. The weighted mean difference (WMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated via frequentist network meta-analysis using Stata software. Fifty-two RCTs (1483 biopsies) were included. At a healing time <6 months, AB was superior to AP (WMD-10.66%, 95% CI-16.38% to -4.94%) and XG (WMD-7.93%, 95% CI-15.11% to -0.75%) for NBF. Regarding CT, AB was superior to XG+AP, AP, MSCs, and XG. At a healing time ≥6 months, NBF was higher for AB than AP (WMD-7.06%, 95% CI-12.59% to -1.52%). RG was lower in AB than AP (WMD 12.03%, 95% CI 3.04% to 21.03%), XG (WMD 14.62%, 95% CI 4.25% to 24.98%), and growth factors (WMD 12.32%, 95% CI 0.04% to 24.60%). The three highest ranked biomaterials for increasing NBF were AG+XG (95%, very low quality evidence), growth factors (69.9%, low quality evidence), and AB alone (69.8%, moderate quality evidence). The three highest ranked biomaterials for decreasing RG were BMPs (88.8%, very low quality evidence), AB alone (81.5%, moderate quality evidence), and AB+AP (58.9%, very low quality evidence). Finally, XG+AP (84.7%, low quality evidence), AP alone (77.7%, moderate quality evidence), and MSCs (76.1%, low quality evidence), were the three highest ranked biomaterials for decreasing the amount of CT. Network meta-analysis provided moderate quality evidence that AB alone is probably the best option to obtain greater NBF after MSA in the first 6 months after surgery. Additionally, the results of this network meta-analysis support the hypothesis that osteoconductive bone substitute materials should be combined with osteogenic or osteoinductive grafts for superior histomorphometric outcomes in MSA.

Integrated Effects of Genetic Resistance and Prothioconazole + Tebuconazole Application Timing on Fusarium Head Blight in Wheat

Integrated Fusarium head blight (FHB) management programs consisting of different combinations of cultivar resistance class and an application of the fungicide prothioconazole + tebuconazole at or after 50% early anthesis were evaluated for efficacy against FHB incidence (INC; percentage of diseased spikes), index (IND; percentage of diseased spikelets per spike), Fusarium damaged kernel (FDK), deoxynivalenol (DON) toxin contamination, grain yield, and test weight (TW) in inoculated field trials conducted in 11 U.S. states in 2014 and 2015. Mean log response ratios and corresponding percent control values for INC, IND, FDK, and DON, and mean differences in yield and TW relative to a nontreated, inoculated susceptible check (S_CK), were estimated through network meta-analyses as measures of efficacy. Results from the analyses were then used to estimate the economic benefit of each management program for a range of grain prices and fungicide applications costs. Management programs consisting of a moderately resistant (MR) cultivar treated with the fungicide were the most efficacious, reducing INC by 60 to 69%, IND by 71 to 76%, FDK by 66 to 72%, and DON by 60 to 64% relative to S_CK, compared with 56 to 62% for INC, 68 to 72% for IND, 66 to 68% for FDK, and 58 to 61% for DON for programs with a moderately susceptible (MS) cultivar. The least efficacious programs were those with a fungicide application to a susceptible (S) cultivar, with less than a 45% reduction of INC, IND, FDK, or DON. All programs were more efficacious under conditions favorable for FHB compared with less favorable conditions, with applications made at 50% early anthesis being of comparable efficacy to those made 2 to 7 days later. Programs with an MS cultivar resulted in the highest mean yield increases relative to S_CK (541 to 753 kg/ha), followed by programs with an S cultivar (386 to 498 kg/ha) and programs with an MR cultivar (250 to 337 kg/ha). Integrated management programs with an MS or MR cultivar treated with the fungicide at or after 50% early anthesis were the most likely to result in a 50 or 75% control of IND, FDK, or DON in a future trial. At a fixed fungicide application cost, these programs were $4 to $319/MT more economically beneficial than corresponding fungicide-only programs, depending on the cultivar and grain price. These findings demonstrate the benefits of combining genetic resistance with a prothioconazole + tebuconazole treatment to manage FHB, even if that treatment is applied a few days after 50% early anthesis.

A network meta-analysis provides new insight into fungicide scheduling for the control of Botrytis cinerea in vineyards

BACKGROUND

Control of Botrytis bunch rot (BBR) is currently based on the application of fungicides at four timings corresponding to specific growth stages of vines: end of flowering (A), pre-bunch closure (B), veraison (C) and before harvest (D). The current research provides a network meta-analysis of 116 studies conducted between 1963 and 2016 in nine countries, in which 14 strategies (based on combinations of 1, 2, 3, or 4 sprays applied in A, B, C, and/or D) were compared.

RESULTS

When a one-spray strategy was applied, BBR control was more effective with sprays applied in A, C, or D than B. With a two-spray strategy, strategy AC provided similar control as strategy BC; strategy CD also provided good control. For a 3-spray strategy, the best disease control was consistently obtained with strategy ACD. Four-spray strategy ABCD provided the best control but often involved needless sprays so that the routine application of four sprays is not justified.

CONCLUSIONS

Spraying at timing A seems to be very important for achieving efficient and flexible disease control. Flexibility is reduced by spraying at timing B rather than A. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

The Prevalence of Depression and Anxiety Symptoms among Overweight/Obese and Non-Overweight/Non-Obese Children/Adolescents in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

With the dramatic growth of the Chinese economy, the number of children/adolescents with being overweight/having obesity is increasing, which has a certain impact on their psychology, such as depression and anxiety symptoms. Our purpose was to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the prevalence and odds ratios of depression and anxiety symptoms among overweight/obese children/adolescents and non-overweight/obese children/adolescents in China. As of July 2018, the three most comprehensive computerized academic databases in China have been systematically screened, namely China national knowledge infrastructure (CNKI) databases, Wanfang databases and Vip databases. The same operations are performed in PubMed and Web of Science (SCIE) databases without language restrictions. Case-control studies on prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in overweight/obese children/adolescents in China were analyzed. Study selection and evaluation were performed independently by three authors. Unweighted prevalence, pooled random-effects estimates of odds ratio (OR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were all calculated. A total of 11 eligible studies involving 17,894 subjects were included. The prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in overweight/obese children/adolescents was significantly higher than that in non-overweight/non-obese children/adolescents (depression: 21.73% vs. 17.96%, OR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.87, p = 0.003; anxiety: 39.80% vs. 13.99%, OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.79, p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses conducted according to scale types showed that scale types have certain significance to evaluate the relationship between depression symptoms and overweight/obesity. The OR of depression symptoms between overweight/obese children/adolescents and non-overweight/non-obese children/adolescents was greatest on the Middle School Student Mental Health Scale (MSSMHS) was 2.06 (95% CI: 1.41, 3.02, I² = 0.00%), Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) was 1.03 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.25, I² = 0.00%), and Children’s Depression Inventory (CDI) was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.42, I² = 0.00%). We concluded that the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in overweight/obese children/adolescents in China is higher than that in the non-overweight/obese children/adolescents. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms among overweight/obese children/adolescents in Chinese medical institutions should receive more attention. Physical exercise and psychological interventions should be strengthened to prevent psychological problems. However, because of some clear limitations (no clinical interview and few studies), these results should be interpreted with caution.

Meta-Analysis of the Effects of QoI and DMI Fungicide Combinations on Fusarium Head Blight and Deoxynivalenol in Wheat

Field trials were conducted in 17 U.S. states to evaluate the effects of quinone outside inhibitor (QoI) and demethylation inhibitor (DMI) fungicide programs on Fusarium head blight index (IND) and deoxynivalenol (DON) toxin in wheat. Four DMI-only treatments applied at Feekes 10.5.1, five QoI-only treatments applied between Feekes 9 or Feekes 10.5, three QoI+DMI mixtures applied at Feekes 10.5, and three treatments consisting of a QoI at Feekes 9 followed by a DMI at Feekes 10.5.1 were evaluated. Network meta-analytical models were fitted to log-transformed mean IND and DON data and estimated contrasts of log means were used to obtain estimates of mean percent controls relative to the nontreated check as measures of efficacy. Results from the meta-analyses were also used to assess the risk of DON increase in future trials. DMI at Feekes 10.5.1 were the most effective programs against IND and DON and the least likely to increase DON in future trials. QoI-only programs increased mean DON over the nontreated checks and were the most likely to do so in future trials, particularly when applied at Feekes 10.5. The effects of QoI+DMI combinations depended on the active ingredients and whether the two were applied as a mixture at heading or sequentially. Following a Feekes 9 QoI application with a Feekes 10.5.1 application of a DMI reduced the negative effect of the QoI on DON but was not sufficient to achieve the efficacy of the Feekes 10.5.1 DMI-only treatments. Our results suggest that one must be prudent when using QoI treatments under moderate to high risk of FHB, particularly where the QoI is used without an effective DMI applied in combination or in sequence.

Effects of Pre- and Postanthesis Applications of Demethylation Inhibitor Fungicides on Fusarium Head Blight and Deoxynivalenol in Spring and Winter Wheat

Anthesis is generally recommended as the optimum growth stage for applying a foliar fungicide to manage Fusarium head blight (FHB) and the Fusarium-associated toxin deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat. However, because it is not always possible to treat fields at anthesis, studies were conducted to evaluate pre- and postanthesis treatment options for managing FHB and DON in spring and winter wheat. Network meta-analytical models were fitted to data from 19 years of fungicide trials, and log response ratio ([Formula: see text]) and approximate percent control ([Formula: see text]) relative to a nontreated check were estimated as measures of the effects of six treatments on FHB index (IND: mean percentage of diseased spikelets per spike) and DON. The evaluated treatments consisted of either Caramba (metconazole) applied early (at heading [CE]), at anthesis (CA), or late (5 to 7 days after anthesis; CL), or Prosaro (prothioconazole + tebuconazole) applied at the same three times and referred to as PE, PA, and PL, respectively. All treatments reduced mean IND and DON relative to the nontreated check, but the magnitude of the effect varied with timing and wheat type. CA and PA resulted in the highest [Formula: see text] values for IND, 52.2 and 51.5%, respectively, compared with 45.9% for CL, 41.3% for PL, and less than 33% for CE and PE. Anthesis and postanthesis treatments reduced mean IND by 14.9 to 29.7% relative to preanthesis treatments. The estimated effect size was also statistically significant for comparisons between CA and CL and PA and PL; CA reduced IND by 11.7% relative to CL, whereas PA reduced the disease by 17.4% relative to PL. Differences in efficacy against IND between pairs of prothioconazole + tebuconazole and metconazole treatments applied at the same timing (CE versus PE, CA versus PA, and CL versus PL) were not statistically significant. However, CA and CL outperformed PA and PL by 7 and 12.8%, respectively, in terms of efficacy against DON. All application programs had comparable efficacy against IND between spring and winter wheat types, but efficacy against DON was 10 to 16% greater for spring than winter wheat for applications made at or after anthesis. All programs led to an increase in mean grain yield and test weight relative to the nontreated check.

Ranking crop species using mixed treatment comparisons

The mixed treatment comparison (MTC) method has been proposed to combine results across trials comparing several treatments. MTC allows coherent judgments on which of the treatments is the most effective. It produces estimates of the relative effects of each treatment compared with every other treatment by pooling direct and indirect evidence. In this article, we explore how this methodological framework can be used to rank a large number of agricultural crop species from yield data collected in field experiments. Our approach is illustrated in a meta-analysis of yield data obtained in 67 field studies for 36 different bioenergy crop species. The considered dataset defines a network of comparisons of crop species. We introduce several Bayesian MTC models based on baseline treatment contrasts and evaluate the practical advantages of these models to produce yield ratio estimates. We explore the consistency of some estimates by node-splitting and compare our results to those obtained with a classical two-way linear mixed model. Results reveal that the model showing the lowest deviance information criterion (DIC) includes both study random effects and study-specific residual variances. But all the tested models including study random effects lead to similar yield ratio estimates. The proposed Bayesian framework allows an in-depth analysis of the uncertainty in the species ranking.

Meta-analysis and transcriptome profiling reveal hub genes for soybean seed storage composition during seed development

Soybean is an important crop providing edible oil and protein source. Soybean oil and protein contents are quantitatively inherited and significantly affected by environmental factors. In this study, meta-analysis was conducted based on soybean physical maps to integrate quantitative trait loci (QTLs) from multiple experiments in different environments. Meta-QTLs for seed oil, fatty acid composition, and protein were identified. Of them, 11 meta-QTLs were located on hot regions for both seed oil and protein. Next, we selected 4 chromosome segment substitution lines with different seed oil and protein contents to characterize their 3 years of phenotype selection in the field. Using strand-specific RNA-sequencing analysis, we profile the time-course transcriptome patterns of soybean seeds at early maturity, middle maturity, and dry seed stages. Pairwise comparison and K-means clustering analysis revealed 7,482 differentially expressed genes and 45 expression patterns clusters. Weighted gene coexpression network analysis uncovered 46 modules of gene expression patterns. The 2 most significant coexpression networks were visualized, and 7 hub genes were identified that were involved in soybean oil and seed storage protein accumulation processes. Our results provided a transcriptome dataset for soybean seed development, and the candidate hub genes represent a foundation for further research.

Evaluating the Profitability of Foliar Fungicide Programs in Mid-Atlantic Soft-Red Winter Wheat Production

In mid-Atlantic soft-red winter wheat (SRWW) production, the standard timing for a fungicide application is between flag leaf emergence (Feekes growth stage [FGS] 8) and heading (FGS 10.5). However, two-pass and anthesis (FGS 10.5.1) applications are becoming common, although these programs have not been thoroughly evaluated for disease control, yield, and profitability. Experiments were conducted in the mid-Atlantic in 2015 and 2016 to evaluate fungicide programs with applications at FGS 8, FGS 10.5.1, and two-pass programs with an early application at green-up (FGS 5) followed by (FB) applications at either FGS 8 or FGS 10.5.1. Fungicide programs that included an application at FGS 10.5.1 resulted in the highest probability of no disease on the flag leaf (0.29 to 0.40). The estimated mean yield increases ( D¯ ) relative to the nontreated check ranged from 253.65 to 634.16 kg ha^-1. Using a grain price of $0.18 kg^-1 ($5 bushel^-1), probabilities were similar between applications at FGS 8 (0.49 to 0.56) and FGS 10.5.1 (0.53). The probability of profitability ranged from 0.48 to 0.57 for FGS 5 FB FGS 8 applications and 0.52 to 0.59 for FGS 5 FB FGS 10.5.1 applications, indicating limited benefit to two-pass programs.

Estimating the variance for heterogeneity in arm-based network meta-analysis

Network meta-analysis can be implemented by using arm-based or contrast-based models. Here we focus on arm-based models and fit them using generalized linear mixed model procedures. Full maximum likelihood (ML) estimation leads to biased trial-by-treatment interaction variance estimates for heterogeneity. Thus, our objective is to investigate alternative approaches to variance estimation that reduce bias compared with full ML. Specifically, we use penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and hierarchical (h) likelihood approaches. In addition, we consider a novel model modification that yields estimators akin to the residual maximum likelihood estimator for linear mixed models. The proposed methods are compared by simulation, and 2 real datasets are used for illustration. Simulations show that penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood reduce bias and yield satisfactory coverage rates. Sum-to-zero restriction and baseline contrasts for random trial-by-treatment interaction effects, as well as a residual ML-like adjustment, also reduce bias compared with an unconstrained model when ML is used, but coverage rates are not quite as good. Penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood are therefore recommended.

Meta-Analytic Modeling of the Decline in Performance of Fungicides for Managing Soybean Rust after a Decade of Use in Brazil

An apparent decline of fungicide performance for the control of soybean rust in Brazil has been reported but the rate at which it has occurred has not been formally quantified. Control efficacy and yield response to three fungicides applied as single active ingredients (a.i.)-azoxystrobin (AZOX), cyproconazole (CYPR), and tebuconazole (TEBU)-and four applied as mixtures-AZOX+CYPR, picoxystrobin + CYPR, pyraclostrobin + epoxiconazole, and trifloxystrobin + prothioconazole (TRIF+PROT)-were summarized using network meta-analytic models fitted to mean severity and yield data from 250 trials (10-year period). The effect of year was tested on both variables in a meta-regression model. Overall control efficacy ranged from 56 to 84%; the three single-a.i. fungicides performed the poorest (56 to 62%). Yield increase for single-a.i. fungicides was as low as 30% but ranged from 47 to 65% for the premixes. Significant declines in both variables were detected for all fungicides except TRIF+PROT. For TEBU, control efficacy (yield response) declined the most: 78% (18%) to 54% (8%) from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The recent surge of resistant populations of Phakopsora pachyrhizi to both demethylation inhibitor and quinone outside inhibitor fungicides is likely the driving force behind a significant decline after 4 years of fungicide use.