The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard

Global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to smoking, 1990-2019: an analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

AIMS

This study aims to investigate the trends in the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used to analyse the burden of CVD attributable to smoking (i.e. ischaemic heart disease, peripheral artery disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and aortic aneurysm). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDRs) per 100 000, as well as an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASMR and ASDR, were determined by age, sex, year, socio-demographic index (SDI), regions, and countries or territories. The global ASMR of smoking-attributed CVD decreased from 57.16/100 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 54.46-59.97] in 1990 to 33.03/100 000 (95% UI 30.43-35.51) in 2019 [EAPC -0.42 (95% UI -0.47 to -0.38)]. Similarly, the ASDR of smoking-attributed CVD decreased between 1990 and 2019. All CVD subcategories showed a decline in death burden between 1990 and 2019. The burden of smoking-attributed CVD was higher in men than in women. Significant geographic and regional variations existed such that Eastern Europe had the highest ASMR and Andean Latin America had the lowest ASMR in 2019. In 2019, the ASMR of smoking-attributed CVD was lowest in high SDI regions.

CONCLUSION

Smoking-attributed CVD morbidity and mortality are declining globally, but significant variation persists, indicating a need for targeted interventions to reduce smoking-related CVD burden.

Distilling the Fundamentals of Evidence-Based Public Health Policy

Public health policy interventions are associated with many important public health achievements. To provide public health practitioners and decision makers with practical approaches for examining and employing evidence-based public health (EBPH) policy interventions, we describe the characteristics and benefits that distinguish EBPH policy interventions from programmatic interventions. These characteristics include focusing on health at a population level, focusing on upstream drivers of health, and involving less individual action than programmatic interventions. The benefits of EBPH policy interventions include more sustained effects on health than many programs and an enhanced ability to address health inequities. Early childhood education and universal preschool provide a case example that illustrates the distinction between EBPH policy and programmatic interventions. This review serves as the foundation for 3 concepts that support the effective use of public health policy interventions: applying core component thinking to understand the population health effects of EBPH policy interventions; understanding the influence of existing policies, policy supports, and the context in which a particular policy is implemented on the effectiveness of that policy; and employing a systems thinking approach to identify leverage points where policy implementation can have a meaningful effect.

Effects of the illicit market on the price elasticity of cigarette consumption in Brazil

BACKGROUND

An important element to consider in tobacco tax policy is the illicit market of cigarette sales. The objective of this paper is to provide estimates of both conditional and unconditional price elasticities of cigarette consumption in the licit and illicit markets in Brazil.

METHODOLOGY

Microdata from the National Health Survey in 2013 and 2019 are used to estimate conditional and unconditional price elasticities of cigarette consumption in the licit and illicit cigarette markets by income quartiles and age cohorts. The identification is based on brand information and the official minimum cigarette price defined by the government, as sales below this price are prohibited and illegal.

FINDINGS

The results, robust to potential endogeneity, indicate that there is joint statistical difference in price elasticities across age cohorts and income groups by market type. However, individuals smoking illicit cigarettes, regardless of age cohort and income quartiles, are less sensitive to price changes than those consuming licit brands.

CONCLUSIONS

The illicit cigarette market prevents the government from collecting tobacco tax revenues and weakens the social reach of price-oriented antismoking public policies. Fighting the illicit trade should be a major concern of public policies aiming at reducing cigarette consumption.

Responses to Real-World and Hypothetical Menthol Flavor Bans Among US Young Adults Who Smoke Menthol Cigarettes

INTRODUCTION

Menthol cigarette bans have been implemented in some US states and localities, and a federal ban is being proposed by the FDA. This study asks how young adults who use menthol cigarettes respond to changes in menthol cigarette availability.

AIMS AND METHODS

An online survey of young adults ages 18-34 who reported smoking menthol cigarettes on ≥7 of 30 days around Thanksgiving 2019 (n = 734), oversampling Massachusetts-the first state with a menthol ban. Participants reported their tobacco use behavior following real-world menthol cigarette bans or predicted their behavior under a hypothetical federal ban.

RESULTS

Most respondents who exclusively smoked versus dual used with e-cigarettes continued smoking/using combustible tobacco following real-world bans (95.3% vs. 86.9%), accessing menthol cigarettes from other jurisdictions. Fewer who smoked exclusively responded by using e-cigarettes compared to those who dual used (3.9% vs. 43.7%). Quitting all tobacco use (ie, no smoking, vaping, or any tobacco use) was uncommon for both groups (3.6% vs. 9.0%). Under a hypothetical ban, majorities of those who exclusively smoke and who dual use predicted they would continue smoking (72.2% vs. 71.8%); fewer who smoke exclusively would use e-cigarettes compared to those who dual use (14.7% vs. 41.4%). Those who smoke exclusively were more likely to report quitting all tobacco compared to those who dual use (29.6% vs. 12.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Under real-world and hypothetical menthol cigarette bans, most respondents continued smoking. However, more young adults continued smoking following real-world bans, reflecting the limitations of local/state restrictions when menthol cigarettes are available in other jurisdictions.

IMPLICATIONS

This survey asked young adults who use menthol cigarettes how they responded to real-world changes in the availability of menthol cigarettes; 89% reported continuing to smoke. Those who smoked exclusively were far less likely to respond by switching to e-cigarettes compared to people who dual used both products. Under a hypothetical federal menthol cigarette ban, 72% of young adults predicted that they would continue smoking. Quitting all tobacco was less common in the real-world scenario compared to the hypothetical ban. Access to menthol cigarettes in other jurisdictions and flavored cigars likely dampen the public health benefit of menthol cigarette bans.

Evolving methodology of national tobacco control investment cases

BACKGROUND

This article describes an investment case methodology for tobacco control that was applied in 36 countries between 2017 and 2022.

METHODS

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) investment cases compared two scenarios: a base case that calculated the tobacco-attributable mortality, morbidity and economic costs with status quo tobacco control, and an intervention scenario that described changes in those same outcomes from fully implementing and enforcing a variety of proven, evidence-based tobacco control policies and interventions. Health consequences included the tobacco-attributable share of mortality and morbidity from 38 diseases. The healthcare expenditures and the socioeconomic costs from the prevalence of those conditions were combined to calculate the total losses due to tobacco. The monetised benefits of improvements in health resulting from tobacco control implementation were compared with costs of expanding tobacco control to assess returns on investment in each country. An institutional and context analysis assessed the political and economic dimensions of tobacco control in each context.

RESULTS

We applied a rigorous yet flexible methodology in 36 countries over 5 years. The replicable model and framework may be used to inform development of tobacco control cases in countries worldwide.

CONCLUSION

Investment cases constitute a tool that development partners and advocates have demanded in even greater numbers. The economic argument for tobacco control provided by this set of country-contextualised analyses can be a strong tool for policy change.

Interpreting results, impacts and implications from WHO FCTC tobacco control investment cases in 21 low-income and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Tobacco control investment cases analyse the health and socioeconomic costs of tobacco use and the benefits that can be achieved from implementing measures outlined in the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). They are intended to provide policy-makers and other stakeholders with country-level evidence that is relevant, useful and responsive to national priorities and policy context.

METHODS

This paper synthesises findings from investment cases conducted in Armenia, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Eswatini, Georgia, Ghana, Jordan, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia and Zambia. We examine annual socioeconomic costs associated with tobacco use, focusing on smoking-related healthcare expenditures, the value of lives lost due to tobacco-related mortality and workplace productivity losses due to smoking. We explore potential benefits associated with WHO FCTC tobacco demand-reduction measures.

RESULTS

Tobacco use results in average annual socioeconomic losses of US$95 million, US$610 million and US$1.6 billion among the low-income (n=3), lower-middle-income (n=12) and upper-middle-income countries (n=6) included in this analysis, respectively. These losses are equal to 1.1%, 1.8% and 2.9% of average annual national gross domestic product, respectively. Implementation and enforcement of WHO FCTC tobacco demand-reduction measures would lead to reduced tobacco use, fewer tobacco-related deaths and reduced socioeconomic losses.

CONCLUSIONS

WHO FCTC tobacco control measures would provide a positive return on investment in every country analysed.

Projecting the impact of implementation of WHO MPOWER measures on smoking prevalence and mortality in Japan

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to quantify the long-term impact of implementing the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) compliant tobacco control measures, MPOWER, on smoking prevalence and mortality in men and women aged ≥20 years in Japan.

DESIGN

A Stock-and-Flow simulation model was used to project smoking prevalence and mortality from 2018 to 2050 under eight different scenarios: (1) maintaining the 2018 status quo, (2) implementation of smoke-free policies, (3) tobacco use cessation programmes, (4-5) health warning about the dangers of tobacco (labels, mass media), (6) enforcement of tobacco advertising bans or (7) tobacco taxation at the highest recommended level and (8) all these interventions combined.

RESULTS

Under the status quo, the smoking prevalence in Japan will decrease from 29.6% to 15.5% in men and 8.3% to 4.7% in women by 2050. Full implementation of MPOWER will accelerate this trend, dropping the prevalence to 10.6% in men and 3.2% in women, and save nearly a quarter million deaths by 2050. This reduction implies that Japan will only attain the current national target of 12% overall smoking prevalence in 2033, 8 years earlier than it would with the status quo (in 2041), a significant delay from the national government's 2022 deadline.

CONCLUSIONS

To bring forward the elimination of tobacco smoking and substantially reduce smoking-related deaths, the government of Japan should fulfil its commitment to the FCTC and adopt stringent tobacco control measures delineated by MPOWER and beyond.

Parent's awareness of, and influence on, their 14-17-year-old child's vaping and smoking behaviours; an analysis of 3242 parent-child pairs in Australia

BACKGROUND

Vaping by young people in Australia is a rapidly emerging public health issue. Evidence shows that parental behaviours and attitudes can play a key role in influencing adolescent behaviours. Considering the health harms of vaping and evidence that it can be a gateway to tobacco smoking for never-smokers, it is important to understand whether parents' smoking and vaping behaviours influence their teenage children's smoking and vaping behaviours.

METHODS

Online cross-sectional surveys as part of the Generation Vape study, conducted in Australia in 2021/2022, were used to assess parents' influence on, and awareness of, one of their 14-17-year-old child's vaping and smoking behaviours. Participants were 3242 parents and 3242 14-17-year-old teenage children.

RESULTS

The risk of vaping and smoking uptake among 14-17-year-old teenagers was 42% (p = 0.003) and 97% (p < 0.001) higher, respectively, if their parent was an ever-vaper. The risk of vaping and smoking uptake among teenagers was 81% (p < 0.001) and 159% (p < 0.001) higher, respectively, if their parent was an ever-smoker. Parents of teenagers who have not vaped were considerably better at correctly predicting this (97% correct) than parents of teenagers who have vaped (70% correct). Compared to parents, teenagers tended to have less agreement with statements suggesting vaping is unsafe or harmful, and more agreement with statements suggesting vaping is relatively safe.

CONCLUSIONS

Parental smoking and vaping behaviours are associated with those of their children. Hence, it is important that both tobacco and vaping control policies and interventions are designed to influence behaviours of all demographics, consistent with the evidence.

Technology-based interventions for tobacco smoking prevention and treatment: a 20-year bibliometric analysis (2003-2022)

BACKGROUND

Substance abuse, particularly tobacco smoking, is a significant global public health concern. Efforts have been made to reduce smoking prevalence and promote cessation, but challenges, such as nicotine addiction, marketing tactics by tobacco industry, and cultural acceptability hinder progress. Technology has emerged as a potential tool to address these challenges by providing innovative scalable interventions. The objective of the study was to analyze and map scientific literature on technology-based intervention for tobacco prevention and treatment.

METHODS

A bibliometric methodology was conducted. Scopus database was used to retrieve relevant research articles published between 2003 and 2022. The analysis included publication trends, key contributors, research hotspots, research themes, the most impactful articles, and emerging research topics.

RESULTS

A total of 639 articles were found, with a slow and fluctuating growth pattern observed after 2011. The Journal of Medical Internet Research was the most prominent journal in the field. The United States was the leading country in the field, followed up by the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Research hotspots included smoking cessation, randomized controlled trials, and technology-based methods such as internet, mHealth, smartphone apps, text messages, and social media. Four primary research themes were identified: development of smartphone applications, efficacy of text messaging interventions, acceptance and effectiveness of smartphone applications, and interventions targeting young adults and students using mobile phone and social media platforms. The top 10 cited articles demonstrated effectiveness of digital interventions in promoting smoking cessation rates and reducing relapse rates. Emerging research topics included the use of virtual reality interventions, interventions for specific populations through personalized tools, and technology-based interventions in non-Western countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of the current study highlight the potential of technology to address the challenges associated with tobacco smoking. Further future research in this area is warranted to continue advancing the field and developing effective and evidence-based interventions to combat tobacco smoking.

The Long Behavioral Tail of the COVID-19 Pandemic-A Cancer Control Perspective

This Viewpoint discusses the impact of the COVID-19 public health emergency on the trajectory of cancer deaths.

The global, regional, and national disease burden of breast cancer attributable to tobacco from 1990 to 2019: a global burden of disease study

OBJECTIVE

Tobacco has been identified as a significant contributory element to the development of breast cancer. Our objective was to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of tobacco-related breast cancer at the global, regional, and national scales during 1990-2019.

METHODS

We extracted data on mortality, disability adjusted of life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was computed to assess the temporal change in ASDR and ASMR.

RESULTS

In 2019, the deaths and DALYs attributed to tobacco-related breast cancer were estimated to be 35,439 (95% UI: 22,179-48,119) and 1,060,590 (95% UI: 622,550-1,462,580), respectively. These figures accounted for 5.1% and 5.2% of the total burden of breast cancer. ASMR and ASDR increased in low SDI regions, remained stable in low-middle and middle SDI regions and declined in high and high-middle SDI regions. The burden of breast cancer attributable to tobacco varied notably among regions and nations. Oceania, Southern Latin America, and Central Europe were the GBD regions with the highest number of ASMR and DALYs. There was a positive relationship between age-standardized rate and SDI value in 2019 across 204 nations or territories. A negative association was observed between the EAPC in ASMR or ASDR and the human development index (HDI) in 2019 (R = -0.55, p < 0.01 for ASMR; R = -0.56, p < 0.01 for ASDR).

CONCLUSION

Tobacco is one important and modifiable risk factor for breast cancer. The heterogeneity in both the spatial and temporal distribution can be attributed to factors such as aging, population growth, and SDI. These findings substantiate the necessity of expediting the enforcement of tobacco-free legislation in order to safeguard populations from the detrimental effects of tobacco.

Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model

OBJECTIVES

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to complex transitions between NVP and cigarette use. To circumvent the data limitations and parameter instability challenges in modeling transitions, we indirectly estimate NVPs' impact on smoking prevalence and resulting smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

METHODS

Canada SimSmoke uses age- and sex-specific data on Canadian population, smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies. The model incorporates the impact of cigarette-oriented policies on smoking prevalence but not the explicit contribution of NVPs. The model was calibrated from 1999 to 2012, thereby projecting smoking prevalence before NVPs were widely used in Canada. The NVP impact on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing projected 2012-2020 smoking trends absent NVPs to corresponding trends from two Canadian national surveys. We further distinguish impacts before and after NVPs became regulated in 2018 and more available.

RESULTS

Comparing 2012-2020 survey data of post-NVP to SimSmoke projected smoking prevalence trends, one survey indicated an NVP-related relative reduction of 15% (15%) for males (females) age 15+, but 32% (52%) for those ages 15-24. The other survey indicated a 14% (19%) NVP-related smoking reduction for ages 18+, but 42% (53%) for persons ages 18-24. Much of the gain occurred since Canada relaxed NVP restrictions. NVP-related 2012-2020 smoking reductions yielded 100,000 smoking-attributable deaths averted from 2012 to 2060.

CONCLUSION

Smoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

The cost-effectiveness of improved brief interventions for tobacco cessation in Thailand

Background

This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of four strategies enhancing the quality and accessibility of Brief Intervention (BI) service for smoking cessation in Thailand during 2022-2030: (1) current-BI (status quo), (2) the effective-training standard-BI, (3) the current-BI plus the village health volunteers (VHV) mobilization, and (4) the effective-training BI plus VHV mobilization.

Methods

By interviewing five public health officers, nine healthcare professionals aiding these services, and fifteen BI service experts, we explored the status quo situation of the Thai smoking cessation service system, including main activities, their quantity assumptions, and activities' unit prices needed to operate the current cessation service system. Then, we modeled additional activities needed to implement the other three simulated scenarios. We estimated the costs and impacts of implementing these strategies over a nine-year operating horizon (2022-2030), covering 3 years of service system preparation and 6 years of full implementation. The modeled costs of these four strategies included intervention and program costs. The study focused on current smokers age 15 years or older. The assessed impact parameters encompassed smoking prevalence, deaths averted, and healthy life-years gained. An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis compared the four simulated strategies was employed. Data analysis was performed using the One Health Tool software, which the World Health Organization developed.

Results

The findings of this investigation reveal that all three intervention strategies exhibited cost-effectiveness compared to the prevailing status quo. Among these strategies, Strategy 2, enhancing BI service quality, emerged as the most efficient and efficacious option. Therefore, the expansion of quality services should be synergistically aligned with augmented training, service delivery optimization, and managerial enhancements.

Conclusion

This approach is particularly poised to enhance accessibility to and the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions across Thailand.

Do Tobacco Companies Have an Incentive to Promote "Harm Reduction" Products?: The Role of Competition

INTRODUCTION

Some cigarette companies have started to talk about replacing cigarettes with less harmful alternatives, which might include nicotine vaping products (NVPs), heated tobacco products (HTPs), and oral nicotine delivery products. We consider market competition as a primary driver of whether cigarette companies follow through on their stated intentions.

AIMS AND METHODS

We focus on the behavior of cigarette companies in the United States. We compare competition in the pre- and post-2012 time periods, analyze the impact of the growth in NVPs on smoking prevalence and cigarette company profits, and examine the potential future role of competition.

RESULTS

Since 2006, consumers have broadened their use of non-combustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs) to include, inter alia, NVPs, HTPs, and oral nicotine pouches. U.S. cigarette companies have acquired major stakes in each of these product categories which corresponds to a period of rapidly declining adult smoking prevalence, especially among younger adults (ages 18-24 years). The shifting dynamics of the nicotine product marketplace are also reflected in cigarette company stock prices. While cigarette companies are likely to promote HTPs and nicotine delivery products over NVPs, their incentives will be directly related to competition from independent firms, which in turn will depend on government regulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cigarette companies will back alternatives to combusted tobacco when threatened by competition, the prospects for their lasting conversion to NCNDPs will depend on the extent of such competition, which will be influenced by government regulation of tobacco products.

IMPLICATIONS

Regulations that limit competition from independent firms while also protecting cigarette company profits risk slowing or even reversing recent declines in smoking, especially among youth and young adults. Regulations that reduce the appeal and addictiveness of combusted tobacco products, such as higher cigarette taxes or a reduced nicotine standard, will encourage smokers to quit and/or switch to less harmful non-combusted forms of tobacco. The regulation of non-combustible nicotine delivery products and cigarettes should be proportionate to their relative risks, so that smokers have incentives to switch from combustibles to safer alternatives, and cigarette companies have incentives to promote safer products.

Tobacco Vendors' Perceptions and Compliance with Tobacco Control Laws in Nigeria

Tobacco vendors are critical stakeholders in the tobacco supply chain. This study examined their perception, compliance, and potential economic impact of Nigeria's tobacco control laws related to the retail setting. This was a qualitative study involving in-depth interviews of 24 purposively selected tobacco vendors. The face-to-face interviews were aided by a semi-structured interview guide, audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using thematic analysis with NVivo version 12. Five themes emerged, encompassing reasons for selling tobacco, awareness, perception, compliance with tobacco sales laws, the potential economic impact of the laws, and law enforcement activities. Vendors commenced tobacco sales due to consumers' demand, profit motives, and advice from close family relatives. They were unaware and non-compliant with most of the retail-related laws. Most participants had positive perceptions about the ban on sales to and by minors, were indifferent about the ban on Tobacco Advertising Promotion and Sponsorships (TAPS) and product display, and had negative perceptions about the ban on sales of single sticks. Most vendors stated quitting tobacco sales would not have a serious economic impact on their business. In conclusion, the vendors demonstrated limited awareness and non-compliance with various retail-oriented tobacco control laws in Nigeria. Addressing these gaps requires targeted educational campaigns and effective law enforcement strategies to enhance vendors' compliance.

Effects of cigarette package colors and warning labels on marlboro smokers' risk beliefs, product appraisals, and smoking behavior: a randomized trial

OBJECTIVE

Plain packaging and graphic warning labels are two regulatory strategies that may impact cigarette risk beliefs and reduce consumption, but data are needed to better understand how smokers respond to such regulations.

METHODS

Adult, daily, Marlboro non-menthol smokers (Red [n = 141] or Gold [n = 43]) completed a mixed factorial randomized trial. Participants smoked their usual cigarettes during baseline (5-days) and were randomized to receive cigarette packs with a warning label manipulation (graphic vs. text-only). Within each warning label condition, participants completed three within-subjects pack color manipulations (red, gold, plain), each lasting 15 days. Participants were blinded to the fact that all packs contained their usual cigarettes. Mixed-effects models examined between- and within-subject differences on risk beliefs, product perceptions, and smoking behavior.

RESULTS

Warning type and package color did not impact cigarette consumption or subjective ratings. However, use increased in all conditions (2.59-3.59 cigarettes per day) relative to baseline. While smokers largely held correct risk beliefs at baseline (Mean = 6.02, SE = 0.17, Range:0-8), the cumulative number of incorrect or uncertain cigarette risk beliefs increased from baseline in all pack color manipulations in the text (IRR range = 1.70-2.16) and graphic (IRR range = 1.31-1.70) warning conditions. Across all pack color periods, those in the graphic (vs. text) warning condition had reduced odds of reporting their study cigarettes as 'safer' than regular cigarettes (OR range = 0.22-0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Pack color modification may increase uncertainty about several key cigarette risk beliefs, though graphic warnings may attenuate these effects. Regulatory agencies could consider supporting policy changes with information campaigns to maximize public knowledge.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

November 25, 2014; Registration number: NCT02301351.

Racial, Gender, and Size Bias in a Medical Graphical Abstract Gallery: A Content Analysis

Introduction

Graphical abstracts may enhance dissemination of scientific and medical research but are also prone to reductionism and bias. We conducted a systematic content analysis of the Journal of Internal Medicine (JIM) Graphical Abstract Gallery to assess for evidence of bias.

Materials and Methods

We analyzed 140 graphical abstracts published by JIM between February 2019 and May 2020. Using a combination of inductive and deductive approaches, we developed a set of codes and code definitions for thematic, mixed-methods analysis.

Results

We found that JIM graphical abstracts disproportionately emphasized male (59.5%) and light-skinned (91.3%) bodies, stigmatized large body size, and overstated genetic and behavioral causes of disease, even relative to the articles they purportedly represented. Whereas 50.7% of the graphical surface area was coded as representing genetic factors, just 0.4% represented the social environment.

Discussion

Our analysis suggests evidence of bias and reductionism promoting normative white male bodies, linking large bodies with disease and death, conflating race with genetics, and overrepresenting genes while underrepresenting the environment as a driver of health and illness. These findings suggest that uncritical use of graphical abstracts may distort rather than enhance our understanding of disease; harm patients who are minoritized by race, gender, or body size; and direct attention away from dismantling the structural barriers to health equity.

Conclusion

We recommend that journals develop standards for mitigating bias in the publication of graphical abstracts that (1) ensure diverse skin tone and gender representation, (2) mitigate weight bias, (3) avoid racial or ethnic essentialism, and (4) attend to sociostructural contributors to disease.

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Introduction

This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies.

Methods

We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population.

Results

Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts.

Conclusions

The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

National and Provincial Prevalence of Cigarette Smoking in Iran; A Systematic Analysis of 12 Years of STEPS Experience

BACKGROUND

Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for six of the eight leading causes of death. Despite the great burden, there is lack of data regarding the trend of cigarette smoking in Iran. We described the national and provincial prevalence of cigarette smoking and its 12-year time trend utilizing six rounds of Iranian stepwise approach for surveillance of non-communicable disease (STEPS) surveys.

METHODS

We gathered data from six STEPS surveys done in 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2016 in Iran. To estimate the data of missing years, we used two separate statistical models including the mixed model and spatio-temporal analysis.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence rate of cigarette smoking was 14.65% (12.81‒16.59) in 2005 and 10.63% (9.00‒12.57) in 2016 in Iran. The prevalence of cigarette smoking in 2005 and 2016 was 25.15% (23.18‒27.11) and 19.95% (17.93%‒21.97%) for men and 4.13% (2.43‒6.05) and 1.31% (0.06-3.18) for women, respectively. The prevalence of smoking in different provinces of Iran ranged from 20.73% (19.09‒22.47) to 9.67% (8.24‒11.34) in 2005 and from 15.34% (13.68‒17.12) to 6.41% (5.31‒7.94) in 2016. The overall trend of smoking was downward, which was true for both sexes and all 31 provinces. The declining annual percent change (APC) of the prevalence trend was -2.87% in total population, -9.91% in women, and -2.08% in men from 2005 to 2016.

CONCLUSION

Although the prevalence of smoking had a decreasing trend in Iran, this trend showed disparities among sexes and provinces and this epidemiological data can be used to modify smoking prevention programs.

Follow the money: a closer look at US tobacco industry marketing expenditures

INTRODUCTION

While much of the concern with tobacco industry marketing has focused on direct media advertising, a less explored form of marketing strategy is to discount prices. Price discounting is important because it keeps the purchase price low and can undermine the impact of tax increases.

METHODS

We examine annual US marketing expenditures from 1975 to 2019 by the largest cigarette and smokeless tobacco companies as reported to the Federal Trade Commission. We consider three categories: direct advertising, promotional allowances and price discounting. In addition to considering trends in these expenditures, we examine how price discounting expenditures relate to changes in product prices and excise taxes.

RESULTS

US direct advertising expenditures for cigarettes fell from 80% of total industry marketing expenditures in 1975 to less than 3% in 2019, while falling from 39% in 1985 to 6% in 2019 for smokeless tobacco. Price discounting expenditures for cigarettes became prominent after the Master Settlement Agreement and related tax increases in 2002. By 2019, 87% of cigarette marketing expenditures were for price discounts and 7% for promotional allowances. Smokeless marketing expenditures were similar: 72% for price promotions and 13% for promotional allowances. Price discounting increased with prices and taxes until reaching their currently high levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1975 and 2019, direct advertising dramatically fell while price discounting and promotional expenditures increased. Local, state and federal policies are needed that apply non-tax mechanisms to increase tobacco prices and restrict industry contracts to offset industry marketing strategies. Further study is needed to better understand industry decisions about marketing expenditures.

Evaluation of Population-Level Tobacco Control Interventions and Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Smoking causes considerable noncommunicable diseases, perinatal morbidity, and mortality.

Objective

To investigate the associations of population-level tobacco-control policies with health outcomes.

Data Sources

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cumulated Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and EconLit were searched from inception to March 2021 (updated on 1 March 2022). References were manually searched.

Study Selection

Studies reporting on associations of population-level tobacco control policies with health-related outcomes were included. Data were analyzed from May to July 2022.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data were extracted by 1 investigator and cross-checked by a second investigator. Analyses were conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses reporting guideline.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were respiratory system disease (RSD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, mortality, hospitalization, and health care utilization. The secondary outcomes were adverse birth outcomes, such as low birth weight and preterm birth. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Of 4952 records identified, 144 population-level studies were included in the final analysis; 126 studies (87.5%) were of high or moderate quality. The most frequently reported policies were smoke-free legislation (126 studies), followed by tax or price increases (14 studies), multicomponent tobacco control programs (12 studies), and a minimum cigarette purchase age law (1 study). Smoke-free legislation was associated with decreased risk of all CVD events (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.94), RSD events (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.96), hospitalization due to CVD or RSD (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.95), and adverse birth outcomes (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.96). These associations persisted in all sensitivity and subgroup analyses, except for the country income category, for which a significant reduction was only observed in high-income countries. In meta-analysis, there was no clear association of tax or price increases with adverse health outcomes. However, for the narrative synthesis, all 8 studies reported statistically significant associations between tax increases and decreases in adverse health events.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, smoke-free legislation was associated with significant reductions in morbidity and mortality related to CVD, RSD, and perinatal outcomes. These findings support the need to accelerate the implementation of smoke-free laws to protect populations against smoking-related harm.

Smoking prevention within social work organizations: a qualitative study about youngsters' and youth workers' perceptions

Tobacco smoking uptake is still a major public health concern, especially among youngsters living in vulnerable situations. Finding optimal ways to engage youngsters in smoking prevention is important. Compared to traditional settings such as schools, social work settings providing sports-based and recreational activities (SR-settings) tend to reach and engage youngsters more. This study aimed to gain insight into the reasons for smoking uptake among youngsters living in vulnerable situations and the conditions through which SR-settings are potentially beneficial for smoking prevention initiatives. Data were collected in two SR-settings in Flanders, Belgium, by means of five focus group discussions and six individual interviews with youngsters (n = 38, mean age = 12.9 ± 2.61 years, 69.7% boys) and eight individual interviews with youth workers (n = 8, mean age = 27.5 ± 7.95 years, 87.5% men). A thematic analysis (TA) approach was applied to analyse the data. Besides individual factors, such as attitudes towards smoking, the desire to be part of a group and conformity to group norms seem to be important drivers of smoking uptake among youngsters in vulnerable situations. The presence of powerful role models in SR-settings with whom youngsters identify may counteract group norms by encouraging healthy behaviour. SR-settings seem suitable for questioning perceptions of vulnerable youngsters, unlike other settings where they may struggle to be heard. The conditional characteristics of SR-settings, such as authentic group processes, having meaningful roles, and being heard, make these contexts promising venues for smoking prevention efforts among vulnerable youngsters. Youth workers who have established trusting relationships with youngsters seem well-suited to communicate smoking prevention messages. A participatory approach, in which youngsters are involved in developing smoking prevention programs, is desirable.

Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to study smoking patterns can be applied to tackle important issues in tobacco control and public health. This paper summarizes the analyses of smoking patterns in the U.S. by race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and family income and for each of the 50 U.S. states using the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort approach. We describe how decision makers, policy advocates, and researchers can use the sociodemographic analyses in this supplement to project state smoking trends and develop effective state-level tobacco control strategies. The all-cause mortality RR estimates associated with smoking for U.S. race/ethnicity and education groups are also discussed in the context of research that measures and evaluates health disparities. Finally, the application of the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to Brazil is reviewed with a view to how the same types of analyses can be applied to other low- and middle-income countries.

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs).

METHODS

After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060.

RESULTS

As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

Factors influencing adolescent experimental and current smoking behaviors based on social cognitive theory: A cross-sectional study in Xiamen

Introduction

China has the largest youth population in the world. To better implement the Smoke-free School Initiative, this study aims to examine the protective and risk factors for different smoking behaviors (never smoked, experimental smoking, and current smoking) among school adolescents based on social cognitive theory.

Methods

This research was a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey of middle schools in Huli District of Xiamen, China. The final sample consisted of 1937 participants with an average age of 15.41 (SD = 1.64). Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the sociodemographic characteristics of the sample. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed using four models.

Results

Of the respondents, 1685 (86.99%) were never smokers, 210 (10.84%) were experimental smokers, and 42 (2.17%) were current smokers. Social norms, positive outcome expectations, anti-smoking self-efficacy, and attitudes toward control tobacco policies were associated with adolescents' smoking behaviors. The number of smoking family members, classmates smoking, the perception that smoking is cool and attractive, and attitudes toward control tobacco policies were the predictors of current smoking behavior (p < 0.05). In contrast, friends smoking and individual and social relationship motivation were associated with only experimental smoking (p < 0.05).

Discussion

The relationship of social norms, positive outcome expectations, anti-smoking self-efficacy, and attitudes toward control tobacco policies varied across smoking behaviors. Family, school, society and the government need to cooperate in prevention and intervention programs for adolescent smoking. The relationships between these factors and adolescents' different smoking behaviors needs to be further verified.

A National Strategy for Preventing Substance and Opioid Use Disorders Through Evidence-Based Prevention Programming that Fosters Healthy Outcomes in Our Youth

The recently released National Drug Control Strategy (2022) from the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) lays out a comprehensive plan to, not only enhance access to treatment and increase harm reduction strategies, but also increase implementation of evidence-based prevention programming at the community level. Furthermore, the Strategy provides a framework for enhancing our national data systems to inform policy and to evaluate all components of the plan. However, not only are there several missing components to the Strategy that would assure its success, but there is a lack of structure to support a national comprehensive service delivery system that is informed by epidemiological data, and trains and credentials those delivering evidence-based prevention, treatment, and harm reduction/public health interventions within community settings. This paper provides recommendations for the establishment of such a structure with an emphasis on prevention. Systematically addressing conditions known to increase liability for behavioral problems among vulnerable populations and building supportive environments are strategies consistently found to avert trajectories away from substance use in general and substance use disorders (SUD) in particular. Investments in this approach are expected to result in significantly lower rates of SUD in current and subsequent generations of youth and, therefore, will reduce the burden on our communities in terms of lowered social and health systems involvement, treatment needs, and productivity. A national strategy, based on strong scientific evidence, is presented to implement public health policies and prevention services. These strategies work by improving child development, supporting families, enhancing school experiences, and cultivating positive environmental conditions.

Global trends in smoking cessation research from 2002 to 2021: A bibliometric and visual analysis

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Our study is the first bibliometric and visual analysis on smoking cessation research of the past two decades.

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Our study identifies productive countries/regions, institutions, authors, journals, and reveals a global network of collaborations of smoking cessation research.

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The Co-occurrence Analysis of Keywords shed lights on the research frontier, trends and hot topics on smoking cessation research.

This study aimed to analyze the scientific outputs of smoking cessation research and explore its hotspots and frontiers from 2002 to 2021, using bibliometric methods. We use the core collection of Web of Science as a data source, and apply bibliometric methods to visually analyze articles published in smoking cessation research from 2002 to 2021, including publication year, countries/regions, journals, authors, institutions, and keywords. The VOSviewer (1.6.16) tool was used for the analysis. A total of 8797 articles related to smoking cessation research were identified. The USA was the leading contributor with 4671 publications. NICOTINE＆TOBACCO RESEARCH contributed the most publications (528), with the most citations (13746) and the highest H-index (59). The most contributing institutions were the University College London and University of California San Francisco. Robert West was most productive author. We found active collaborations among both productive authors and productive institutions. There were five hot topics in smoking cessation research: (1) Public health harm from tobacco; (2) The role of e-health in smoking cessation; (3) Role of primary health care in eliminating tobacco dependence; (4) Nicotine replacement therapy and pharmacotherapy; (5) The biological and clinical understanding of addiction. Our current study showed a growing trend in smoking cessation based on the number of published articles over the last 20 years. There was active cooperation between institutions, and authors. Electronic cigarettes, mHealth, eHealth, public health and mental health are foci of new and emerging research.

Evaluation of Cancer Deaths Attributable to Tobacco in California, 2014-2019

IMPORTANCE

California's tobacco control efforts have been associated with a decrease in cancer mortality, but these estimates are based on smoking prevalence of the general population. Patient-level tobacco use information allows for more precise estimates of the proportion of cancer deaths attributable to smoking.

OBJECTIVE

To calculate the proportion (smoking-attributable fraction) and number (smoking-attributable cancer mortality) of cancer deaths attributable to tobacco use using patient-level data.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The smoking-attributable fraction and smoking-attributable cancer mortality were calculated for a retrospective cohort of patients whose cancer was diagnosed from 2014 to 2019 with at least 1 year of follow-up using relative risks from large US prospective studies and patient-level smoking information. Follow-up continued through April 2022. A population-based cohort was identified from the California Cancer Registry. Participants included adults aged 20 years and older with a diagnosis of 1 of the 12 tobacco-related cancers (oral cavity or pharynx, larynx, esophagus, lung, liver, stomach, pancreas, kidney, bladder, colon or rectum, cervix, and acute myeloid leukemia).

EXPOSURES

Tobacco use defined as current, former, or never.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were the smoking-attributable fraction and smoking-attributable cancer mortality for each of the 12 tobacco-related cancers over 2 time periods (2014-2016 vs 2017-2019) and by sex.

RESULTS

Among 395 459 patients with a tobacco-related cancer, most (285 768 patients [72.3%]) were older than 60 years, the majority (228 054 patients [57.7%]) were non-Hispanic White, 229 188 patients were men (58.0%), and nearly one-half (184 415 patients [46.6%]) had lung or colorectal cancers. Nearly one-half of the deaths (93 764 patients [45.8%]) in the cohort were attributable to tobacco. More than one-half (227 660 patients [57.6%]) of patients had ever used tobacco, and 69 103 patients (17.5%) were current tobacco users, which was higher than the proportion in the general population (11.7%). The overall smoking-attributable fraction of cancer deaths decreased significantly from 47.7% (95% CI, 47.3%-48.0%) in 2014 to 2016 to 44.8% (95% CI, 44.5%-45.1%) in 2017 to 2019, and this decrease was seen for both men and women. The overall smoking-attributable cancer mortality decreased by 10.2%.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

California still has a substantial burden of tobacco use and associated cancer. The proportion of cancer deaths associated with tobacco use was almost double what was previously estimated. There was a modest but significant decline in this proportion for overall tobacco-associated cancers, especially for women.

Effectiveness of school-based interventions for preventing tobacco smoking initiation among young people in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Despite the commendable progress made globally in tobacco control, the world is falling short of achieving a 30% relative reduction in current tobacco use by 2025. The African region remains the least in the efforts in fighting the tobacco epidemic and is most exploited by the tobacco industry. Schools have been continuously used for over three decades as a setting for delivering youth smoking prevention programmes; however, the evidence of the effectiveness of those school-based interventions provides varying outcomes. Also, interventions that proved to be effective, in high-income countries (HICs), may not necessarily be effective in the African region as a result of cultural differences and other contrasting factors. An existing systematic review that explored school-based tobacco prevention programmes among the youth in African countries from 2000 to 2016 showed partial effectiveness. This review will address the gap by updating the 2016 review to examine studies in LMICs to generate findings to help target resources which have the potential to save lives by preventing smoking initiation among young people.

METHODS

The JBI methodology for systematic reviews of effectiveness will guide the conduct of this review. A comprehensive strategic search will be developed to retrieve both published and unpublished studies that evaluate school-based interventions to prevent tobacco smoking initiation among in-school young people in LMICs compared to non-intervention programmes. Published studies would be from databases such as MEDLINE via Ovid, CINAHL via EBSCO, Embase, PsycINFO, PsycEXTRA, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Sources of grey literature would be ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, MedNar, EBSCO Open Dissertations, Open Access Theses and Dissertations, and Trove. The databases will be searched for published studies in the English language. The processes of study selection, critical appraisal, data extraction, and data synthesis will be in accordance with the JBI approach for reviews of effectiveness with a minimum of two reviewers at each stage. The primary outcome of the review will be the non-initiation of tobacco smoking by the youth.

DISCUSSION

The review will provide synthesized evidence on the effectiveness of school-based smoking initiation prevention among young people in LMICs. The findings of the review would support policymakers and programme implementers to develop targeted interventions for effective tobacco control initiatives.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021246206.

Prevalence of tobacco consumption and the associated factors among the adults in an urban slum: Findings from the WHO STEPwise survey

INTRODUCTION

Despite Pakistan's stringent tobacco control policy, its effective implementation has always been a challenge, leading to rising tobacco consumption. The aim of the study is to determine the prevalence of tobacco consumption and associated risk factors in the adult population of deprived urban areas.

METHODS

A community-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted from February to July 2019, comprising 607 adults residing in the urban squatter settlement of Lahore using a standardized questionnaire, the WHO STEPwise approach. The outcome was current use of tobacco and/or smokeless tobacco daily. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to determine factors associated with smoking and smokeless tobacco consumption.

RESULTS

Among 607 participants, about 64% were females, 49.3% were illiterate, 64.9% were currently unemployed, and 47.1% belonged to the low-income group. The prevalence of tobacco smoke was 10.5% (95% CI: 8.07-12.93), and smokeless tobacco consumption was 8.6% (95% CI: 6.38-10.82). Multivariable logistic regression found that smokeless tobacco was more likely among the aged 50-59 years (AOR=4.1; 95% CI: 1.1-13.8) and unemployed (AOR=3.6; 95% CI: 1.1-12.2). Whereas tobacco smoking was more likely among the aged 30-39 years (AOR=5.5; 95% CI: 1.8-16.7), Urdu ethnicity (AOR=2.9; 95% CI: 1.2-7.3), unemployed (AOR=6.6; 95% CI: 2.9-14.9), and never exposed to any media (AOR=3.2; 95% CI: 1.8-17.4). Participants exposed to health warnings were less likely to smoke (AOR=0.02; 95% CI: 0.01-0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This study reports a high prevalence of tobacco consumption among adults and calls for effective policy implementation using a multi-pronged approach, including health professionals and media, to spread awareness about the harmful effects of tobacco and endorsement of health warnings on tobacco packaging.

A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products

Markets for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have grown as these products became positioned as harm-reduction alternatives to combusted tobacco products. Herein, we present a public health decision-theoretic framework incorporating different patterns of HTP, NVP, and cigarette use to examine their impacts on population health. Our framework demonstrates that, for individuals who would have otherwise smoked, HTP use may provide public health benefits by enabling cessation or by discouraging smoking initiation and relapse. However, the benefits are reduced if more harmful HTP use replaces less harmful NVP use. HTP use may also negatively impact public health by encouraging smoking by otherwise non-smokers or by encouraging initiation or relapse into smoking. These patterns are directly influenced by industry behavior as well as public policy towards HTPs, NVPs, and cigarettes. While substantial research has been devoted to NVPs, much less is known about HTPs. Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products. While our analysis provides a framework for gaining that information, it also illustrates the complexities in distinguishing key factors.

Tobacco Couponing: A Systematic Review of Exposures and Effects on Tobacco Initiation and Cessation

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco couponing continues to be part of contemporary tobacco marketing in the United States. We performed a systematic review of the evidence of tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption to inform regulation.

AIMS AND METHODS

We searched EMBASE OVID and Medline databases for observational (cross-sectional and longitudinal) studies that examined the prevalence of tobacco coupon receipt and coupon redemption across different subpopulations, as well as studies of the association between coupon receipt and redemption with tobacco initiation and cessation at follow-up. We extracted unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for the associations between coupon exposure (receipt, redemption) and tobacco use outcomes (initiation, cessation) and assessed each studies' potential risk of bias.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven studies met the criteria for inclusion. Of 60 observations extracted, 37 measured coupon receipt, nine measured coupon redemption, eight assessed tobacco use initiation, and six assessed cessation. Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption tended to be more prevalent among younger adults, women, lower education individuals, members of sexual and gender minorities, and more frequent tobacco users. Coupon receipt at baseline was associated with greater initiation. Coupon receipt and redemption at baseline were associated with lower cessation at follow-up among tobacco users. Results in high-quality studies did not generally differ from all studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption are often more prevalent among price-sensitive subpopulations. Most concerning, our results suggest coupon receipt may be associated with higher tobacco initiation and lower tobacco cessation. Couponing thereby increases the toll of tobacco use and could prove to be a viable public health policy intervention point.

IMPLICATIONS

A systematic review was conducted of the scientific literature about the receipt, redemption, and effects on tobacco initiation and cessation of tobacco product couponing. This review found that tobacco coupons are more often received by price-sensitive persons and these coupons serve to increase tobacco initiation and decrease tobacco cessation. Policy efforts to address these consequences may help curb tobacco's harms and address health inequities.

Estimating the changing disease burden attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012

Background. Ongoing quantification of the disease burden attributable to smoking is important to monitor and strengthen tobacco control policies.Objectives. To estimate the attributable burden due to smoking in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.Methods. We estimated attributable burden due to smoking for selected causes of death in South African (SA) adults aged ≥35 years for 2000, 2006 and 2012. We combined smoking prevalence results from 15 national surveys (1998 - 2017) and smoking impact ratios using national mortality rates. Relative risks between smoking and select causes of death were derived from local and international data. Results. Smoking prevalence declined from 25.0% in 1998 (40.5% in males, 10.9% in females) to 19.4% in 2012 (31.9% in males, 7.9% in females), but plateaued after 2010. In 2012 tobacco smoking caused an estimated 31 078 deaths (23 444 in males and 7 634 in females), accounting for 6.9% of total deaths of all ages (17.3% of deaths in adults aged ≥35 years), a 10.5% decline overall since 2000 (7% in males; 18% in females). Age-standardised mortality rates (and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) similarly declined in all population groups but remained high in the coloured population. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease accounted for most tobacco-attributed deaths (6 373), followed by lung cancer (4 923), ischaemic heart disease (4 216), tuberculosis (2 326) and lower respiratory infections (1 950). The distribution of major causes of smoking-attributable deaths shows a middle- to high-income pattern in whites and Asians, and a middle- to low-income pattern in coloureds and black Africans. The role of infectious lung disease (TB and LRIs) has been underappreciated. These diseases comprised 21.0% of deaths among black Africans compared with only 4.3% among whites. It is concerning that smoking rates have plateaued since 2010. Conclusion. The gains achieved in reducing smoking prevalence in SA have been eroded since 2010. An increase in excise taxes is the most effective measure for reducing smoking prevalence. The advent of serious respiratory pandemics such as COVID-19 has increased the urgency of considering the role that smoking cessation/abstinence can play in the prevention of, and post-hospital recovery from, any condition.

The Australia Smoking and Vaping Model: The Potential Impact of Increasing Access to Nicotine Vaping Products

BACKGROUND

We model the potential impact of relaxing current nicotine vaping product (NVP) restrictions on public health in Australia.

AIMS AND METHODS

A Restricted NVP Scenario was first developed to project current smoking and vaping rates, where a U.S. smoking model was calibrated to recent Australian trends. To model less restrictive NVP policies, a Permissive NVP Scenario applied rates of switching from smoking to vaping, initiation into NVP and cigarette use, and cessation from smoking and vaping based on U.S. trends. The model measures vaping risk relative to the excess mortality rate of smoking. The public health impacts are measured as the difference between smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the Restricted and Permissive NVP Scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted regarding the NVP excess risk and other factors.

RESULTS

Assuming an NVP excess risk of 5% that of smoking, 104.2 thousand SVADs (7.7% reduction) and 2.05 million LYLs (17.3% reduction) are averted during 2017-2080 in the Permissive NVP Scenario compared to the Restricted NVP Scenario. Assuming 40% NVP excess risk, 70 thousand SVADs and 1.2 million LYLs are averted. The impact is sensitive to the rate at which smokers switch to NVPs and quit smoking, and relatively insensitive to the smoking initiation and NVP initiation and cessation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests the potential for public health gains to be achieved by relaxing NVP access regulations. However, the model would benefit from better information regarding the impact of NVPs on smoking under a relaxation of current restrictions.

IMPLICATIONS

Australia has implemented a strong array of cigarette-oriented policies, but has restricted access to NVPs. The Smoking and Vaping Model offers a framework for modeling hypothetical policy scenarios. The Australian model shows the potential for public health gains by maintaining cigarette-oriented policies while relaxing the current restrictive NVP policy. Modeling results under a permissive NVP policy are particularly sensitive to the estimated rates of smoking cessation and switching to vaping, which are not well established and will likely depend on past and future cigarette-oriented policies and the specific NVP policies implemented in Australia.

Challenges and opportunities for tobacco control in Australia: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

A greater understanding of the challenges and opportunities for tobacco control in Australia can assist with accelerating efforts in this space. This study sought to explore these challenges and identify priorities for policy and practice.

METHODS

Interviews were conducted with 31 individuals working in tobacco- and/or nicotine-related research, policy and practice in Australia. Interviewees were tobacco control and cessation advocates, researchers, public servants and health practitioners representing a range of government and non-government organisations.

RESULTS

Commonly reported challenges included e-cigarettes distracting from evidence-based reform, lack of government investment, a misperception that tobacco control is 'done' and tobacco industry interference. Advocating for tobacco control to be high on political agendas, sustained investment in evidence-based measures, improved support for cessation and addressing industry interference were considered important means of addressing these challenges.

CONCLUSIONS

Several challenges are perceived to be hampering Australia's tobacco control efforts. The attention being devoted to e-cigarettes at the expense of effective control measures warrants immediate addressing.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

Increasing awareness that smoking continues to be the leading cause of preventable death, developing an evidence-based national cessation strategy and implementing measures that protect tobacco control efforts from vested interests are critical to reducing smoking prevalence rates.

Discussions of Flavored ENDS Sales Restrictions: Themes Related to Circumventing Policies on Reddit

Objective: To examine conversations among JUUL users on Reddit related to restrictions on flavored ENDS and the shifting policy landscape. Methods: Posts and comments (n = 166,169) between May 2019 and May 2020 on the subreddit r/JUUL were scraped using pushshift.io API. Keyword filters were used to identify texts discussing flavored ENDS products (n = 33,884 texts). These were further narrowed down to texts discussing flavor policy workaround strategies (n = 7429) and N-gram analysis was performed. Finally, findings from the N-gram analysis were triangulated through qualitative review of a separate sample of texts (n = 488) from the flavor policy-related posts and comments. Results: Overall activity on the subreddit r/JUUL peaked around the time of the EVALI outbreak (September 2019) and when FDA issued guidance restricting flavored ENDS product sales (January 2020). The N-gram analysis revealed an active discussion of banned products one can “still get” or “JUUL compatible” alternatives, including specific brands, brick and mortar locations, and specific flavors. Ten dominant themes emerged from the qualitative review, with some posts containing more than one theme. Conclusion: Many users turned to Reddit for information related to the shifting regulatory landscape concerning flavored ENDS. Discussions focused on both legal alternatives to banned products as well as illegal means of acquiring JUUL pods, including residual retail supply, online, and mail vendors.

Mapping the Lay of the Land: Using Interactive Network Analytic Tools for Collaboration in Rural Cancer Prevention and Control

BACKGROUND

Cancer mortality rates in the United States are higher in rural than urban areas, especially for colorectal cancer. Modifiable cancer risks (e.g., tobacco use, obesity) are more prevalent among U.S. rural than urban residents. Social network analyses are common, yet rural informal collaborative networks for cancer prevention and control and practitioner uses of network findings are less well understood.

METHODS

In five service areas in rural Missouri and Illinois, we conducted a network survey of informal multisector networks among agencies that address cancer risk (N = 152 individuals). The survey asked about contact, collaborative activities, and referrals. We calculated descriptive network statistics and disseminated network visualizations with rural agencies through infographics and interactive Network Navigator platforms. We also collected feedback on uses of network findings from agency staff (N = 14).

RESULTS

Service areas had more connections (average degree) for exchanging information than for more time-intensive collaborative activities of co-developing and sustaining ongoing services and programs, and co-developing and sharing resources. On average, collaborative activities were not dependent on just a few agencies to bridge gaps to hold networks together. Users found the network images and information useful for identifying gaps, planning which relationships to establish or enhance to strengthen certain collaborative activities and cross-referrals, and showing network strengths to current and potential funders.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural informal cancer prevention and control networks in this study are highly connected and largely decentralized.

IMPACT

Disseminating network findings help ensure usefulness to rural health and social service practitioners who address cancer risks.

The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

BACKGROUND

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) prevalence was decreasing in Kentucky before 2007, but has since increased. This study examines the impact of policies on cigarette and SLT use by applying the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.

METHODS

Using data from the large-scale Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) and information on state-specific tobacco policies, Kentucky SimSmoke is updated and extended to incorporate exclusive SLT and dual cigarette and SLT use. The model is validated using survey data through 2017. The model was used to estimate the impact on smoking and SLT prevalence and attributable deaths of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 and the impact of stronger future policies implemented in 2018 and maintained through 2060.

RESULTS

SimSmoke generally reflects trends in exclusive cigarette use from the TUS-CPS and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), but underestimated the increase in SLT prevalence in recent years. SimSmoke projects that policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 reduced male and female cigarette use by 23.7% and 23.0%, and male and female SLT use by 4.9% by 2018, averting 9018 tobacco-attributable deaths by 2018, increasing to 89 547 by 2060. The largest reductions in cigarette and SLT use were attributed to cigarette price increases. Strengthening tobacco control policies could reduce smoking prevalence by 41% and 40%, and reduce SLT prevalence by 33% and 25% for males and females by 2060.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that cigarette-oriented policies were effective in reducing SLT use but have been less successful in recent years. Future use rates can be further reduced through more restrictive statewide policies, which also target non-combustible nicotine products.

Tobacco Retailers' Support for Point-of-Sale Tobacco Control Policies in England: Association Study of Retailers' Perceived Importance of Tobacco Sales, Contact with the Tobacco Industry, and the Perceived Impact of the Policy

INTRODUCTION

Political acceptability and successful implementation of tobacco control policies at the point of sale may depend on, among other factors, tobacco retailers' level of support for these policies. This study quantified the level of support among small tobacco retailers for four point-of-sale tobacco control policies and its association with three predictors.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional telephone survey data (August 2019) of 508 small tobacco retailers in England. Weighted logistic regression analyses examined associations between support for the product display ban, price display ban, minimum pack size, and standardized packaging, and self-reported importance of tobacco sales for a business, contact with the tobacco industry, and the perceived impact of the policy on their overall business.

RESULTS

A majority of retailers support minimum pack size (66%), product display ban (65%), price display ban (54%), and standardized packaging (55%). The importance of tobacco sales was not associated with support for the policies. More frequent contact with the tobacco industry was associated with higher odds of support for minimum pack size (OR: 2.01, 95%CI:1.25-3.21), but not with the other three policies. The negative perceived impact of the policies, compared with neutral, was associated with 1.5 to three times lower odds of support for all four policies.

CONCLUSION

In England, small retailers' support for the four point-of-sale tobacco control policies varied between 54% and 66%. Support seems unrelated to the perceived importance of tobacco sales, and contact with the tobacco industry, but seems strongly related to the perceived impact of tobacco control policies on their business.

IMPLICATIONS

This study shows that small independent retailers' support for point-of-sale (PoS) tobacco control policies is fairly high and that the lack of support voiced by retail trade organizations is not representative of the views of retailers in England. Support rates may be further improved by addressing retailers' perceptions of the impact of policies on their business. Support was not related to retailers' perceived importance of tobacco sales for their business and their contact with the tobacco industry. The industry rhetoric is not supported by our findings, as the majority of small independent retailers in England support tobacco control regulations.

Tobacco 21 laws may reduce smoking and tobacco-related health disparities among youth in the U.S

The goal of our study is to understand the impact of Tobacco 21 (T21) laws on youth smoking and health equity. We conducted modified Poisson regression models using 2014-2019 Monitoring the Future data to measure the impact of attending school in a county 100% covered by a T21 law versus counties with <100% T21 coverage on past 30-day smoking participation (n = 262,632), first cigarette smoking initiation (n = 189,698), and daily smoking initiation among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders (n = 214,496), separately. Additive interactions were tested between T21 coverage and sex, race/ethnicity, parental education, and college plans. T21 coverage was associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among 12th graders. T21 coverage was most strongly associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among: Hispanic and NH (Non-Hispanic) Other/Multiracial individuals; respondents with parents who had less than a college education; and respondents who were not definitely planning on attending college. T21 laws were associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among 12th graders. T21 policies were most impactful for individuals disproportionately impacted by tobacco, indicating T21 laws might help reduce tobacco-related health disparities.

A qualitative assessment of the perceptions and attitudes towards commercial tobacco policies and education among tribal communities in California

Background: California has the largest American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) population in the United States and faces several commercial tobacco related disparities. This study assessed current interest, readiness, and knowledge regarding commercial tobacco control policies in California Tribal communities.Objectives: A community readiness assessment was conducted in California Tribal communities to understand commercial tobacco policies that included: Tobacco 21 (California State, and now federal, law restricting commercial tobacco sales to age 21 and over), tobacco tax, smoke-free worksites on Tribal lands, smoke-free households, and smoke-free indoor and outdoor areas in multi-unit housing.Methods: Twelve Tribal communities participated in focus groups and interviews between 2016-2019. Content analysis was utilized to code and data were analyzed using ATLAS.ti software.Results: A total of 165 community members participated (65% female), with most expressing support for unwritten, community-based "small p" policies, (e.g., placing signage to create a smoke-free perimeter). However, there was little to no support for "big P" policies (e.g., written ordinances on smoke-free casinos, smoke-free housing). Support for tobacco product taxation varied. The importance of Tribal sovereignty and the need for tobacco prevention and cessation programs for youth were two additional topics that emerged.Conclusions: Participants supported Tribal policies and wished for outsiders to respect Tribal sovereignty in this regard. Communities are currently working to raise awareness about the dangers associated with commercial tobacco use and would benefit from the responsiveness of future funders to these requests.

COVID-19 and tobacco cessation: lessons from India

OBJECTIVES

The Government of India prohibited the sale of tobacco products during the COVID-19 lockdown to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study assessed the tobacco cessation behaviour and its predictors among adult tobacco users during the initial COVID-19 lockdown period in India.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 801 adult tobacco users (both smoking and smokeless tobacco) in two urban metropolitan cities of India over a 2-month period (July to August 2020). The study assessed complete tobacco cessation and quit attempts during the lockdown period. Logistic and negative binomial regression models were used to study the correlates of tobacco cessation and quit attempts, respectively.

RESULTS

In total, 90 (11.3%) tobacco users reported that they had quit using tobacco after the COVID-19 lockdown period. Overall, a median of two quit attempts (interquartile range 0-6) was made by tobacco users. Participants with good knowledge on the harmful effects of tobacco use and COVID-19 were significantly more likely to quit tobacco use (odds ratio [OR] 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-4.0) and reported more quit attempts (incidence risk ratio 5.7; 95% CI 2.8-11.8) compared to those with poor knowledge. Participants who had access to tobacco products were less likely to quit tobacco use compared to those who had no access (OR 0.3; 95% CI 0.2-0.5].

CONCLUSIONS

Access restrictions and correct knowledge on the harmful effects of tobacco use and COVID-19 can play an important role in creating a conducive environment for tobacco cessation among users.

Socioeconomic inequalities in secondhand smoke exposure before, during and after implementation of Quebec's 2015 'An Act to Bolster Tobacco Control'

BACKGROUND

To better understand whether tobacco control policies are associated with changes in secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure across socioeconomic groups, we monitored differences in socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure in households and private vehicles among youth and adults before, during and after adoption of Quebec's 2015 An Act to Bolster Tobacco Control.

METHODS

Using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey, we examined the prevalence of daily exposure to SHS in households and private vehicles among youth (ages 12 to 17) and adults (ages 18+) across levels of household education and income (separately) in 2013/2014, 2015/2016 and 2017/2018. We tested differences in the magnitude of differences in outcomes over time across education and income categories using logistic models with interaction terms, controlling for age and sex.

RESULTS

We detected inequalities in SHS exposure outcomes at each time point, most markedly at home among youth (OR of SHS exposure among youth living in the 20% poorest households vs the 20% richest=4.9, 95% CI 2.7 to 6.2). There were decreases in SHS exposure in homes and cars in each education/income group over time. The magnitude of inequalities in SHS exposure in homes and cars, however, did not change during this period.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure despite implementation of new tobacco control laws represents an increasingly worrisome public health challenge, particularly among youth. Policymakers should prioritise the reduction of socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure and consider the specific needs of socioeconomically disadvantaged populations in the design of future legislation.

Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam's excise tax law 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Vietnam's national tobacco control strategy aims to reduce the rate of smoking among male adults from 45% in 2015 to 39% by 2020. The aim of this paper is to assess what contribution cigarette tax increases under Vietnam's current excise tax plan can be expected to make to this target, and to discuss what additional measures might be implemented accordingly.

METHODS

This study uses a mix of administrative datasets and predictive modelling techniques to assess the expected impact of tax and price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and the rate of smoking between 2015 and 2020.

FINDINGS

The average retail price of cigarettes is estimated to have increased by 16% (sensitivity analysis: 14%-18%) in inflation-adjusted terms between 2015 and 2020, while cigarette consumption is projected to decrease by 5.1% (4.5%-5.5%). The rate of smoking among males is projected to decrease to 42.8% (42.1%-43.6%) compared with the target of 39%. Total tax revenues from cigarettes are projected to increase by 21% (19%-23%), reflecting an extra ₫3300 billion in inflation-adjusted revenues for the government.

CONCLUSION

The current excise tax law is expected to have only a modest impact on the rate of smoking in Vietnam, though it has generated tax revenues. If Vietnam is to achieve its tobacco control targets, the government should implement a mixed excise system with a high-specific component to promote public health by raising the price of cigarettes more significantly.

Tobacco use and mental health disparities in LGB youth

OBJECTIVE

In 2019, the Youth Risk Behavioral Survey (YRBS) collected sexual orientation data for the first time in Kentucky. Tobacco use behaviors and mental health status among Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual (LGB) youth is infrequently documented in southern states such as Kentucky. This study aimed to analyze self-reported tobacco use and mental health in youth by sexual orientation.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SAMPLE

All participants, aged 12-19, of the 2019 Kentucky YRBS that indicated a sexual orientation.

MEASUREMENTS

Differences in response distributions for tobacco use and mental health measures were analyzed via chi square by sexual orientation, with additional stratification by sex.

RESULTS

A total of n = 1996 respondents were 12.8% LGB-identified and 82.1% heterosexual-identified. No disparities between LGB and heterosexual youth were observed in tobacco-related behaviors for male students, but disparities were persistent for female students (p = .005 for "tried tobacco before age 13"; p = .007 for "current smoking", p = .012 for "ever smoked"). Mental health disparities between LGB and heterosexual youth were significant for males and females (p < .05, all mental health measures).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that tobacco disparities in this most recent data are narrower than in previous years; however, mental health disparities persist between LGB and heterosexual youth in Kentucky.

Pilot Ecological Momentary Assessment Study of Subjective and Contextual Factors Surrounding E-Cigarette and Combustible Tobacco Product Use among Young Adults

Background: Dual use of e-cigarettes and combustible tobacco products is common in young adults. We aimed to explore how ratings of subjective and contextual factors differed between discrete episodes of e-cigarette use vs. combustible tobacco product smoking among a sample of young adults. Methods: Young adults (N = 29, ages 18–30) who used e-cigarettes and ≥1 combustible tobacco product at least once weekly completed a 1-week smartphone-based ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Twice daily random prompts assessed past-15-min use of tobacco products, ratings of subjective factors (e.g., negative affect, craving), and contextual factors related to activity, location, and companionship. A multivariable GEE model assessed whether subjective or contextual factors were associated with e-cigarette vs. combustible tobacco product episodes. Results: 184 tobacco use episodes were reported (39.7% e-cigarette, 60.3% combustible tobacco product). High baseline cigarette dependence, as measured by the Fagerström Test for Cigarette Dependence, was associated with lower odds of e-cigarette vs. combustible tobacco product episodes (aOR 0.01, 95% CI (0.002–0.08); p < 0.001). Neither between- or within-subjects negative affect or craving scores were associated with e-cigarette use. Activities of eating/drinking (aOR 0.20, 95% CI (0.08–0.49); p = 0.001) and being in the companionship of a person who smoked cigarettes (aOR 0.13, 95% CI (0.04–0.43); p = 0.001) were associated with lower odds of e-cigarette vs. combustible tobacco product use episodes. However, traveling (aOR 12.02, 95% CI (3.77–38.26); p ≤ 0.001) and being in a public space (aOR 2.76, 95% CI (1.10–6.96); p = 0.03) were associated with higher odds of e-cigarette than combustible tobacco product use episodes. Conclusions: This pilot data suggests that unique contextual factors may be associated with e-cigarette use, compared to combustible tobacco smoking in a sample of young adults who use both e-cigarettes and combustible tobacco products. Future research with larger samples is needed to better characterize varying contexts and cues for tobacco use among young adults who are dual users.

Secondhand smoke in public places in Vietnam: An assessment 5 years after implementation of the tobacco control law

OBJECTIVES

This study quantified the secondhand smoke (SHS) concentration in a sample of public places in Vietnam to determine changes in SHS levels 5 years after a public smoking ban was implemented.

METHODS

Two monitoring campaigns, one in 2013 (before the tobacco control law was implemented) and another in 2018 (5 years after the implementation of the law) were conducted in around 30 restaurants, cafeterias and coffee shops in major cities of Vietnam. Concentrations of PM2.5, as an indicator of SHS, were measured by portable particulate matter monitors (TSI SidePak AM510 and Air Visual Pro).

RESULTS

The geometric mean PM2.5 concentration of all monitored venues was 87.7 µg/m3 (83.7-91.9) in the first campaign and 55.2 µg/m3 (53.7-56.7) in the second campaign. Pairwise comparison showed the PM2.5 concentrations in the smoking observed area was triple and double those in the non-smoking area and the outdoor environment. After adjusting for sampling locations and times, the SHS concentration 5 years after the implementation of the tobacco control law reduced roughly 45%.

CONCLUSION

The study results indicate an improvement in air quality in public places in Vietnam via both the reduction in PM2.5 levels and the number of people observed smoking. However, greater enforcement of the free-smoke legislation is needed to eliminate SHS in public places in Vietnam.