Albumin, white blood cell count, and body mass index improve discrimination of mortality in HIV-positive individuals

Self-injurious unnatural death among Veterans with HIV

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV (PWH) are at an increased risk of suicide and death from unintentional causes compared with people living without HIV. Broadening the categorization of death from suicide to self-injurious unnatural death (SIUD) may better identify a more complete set of modifiable risk factors that could be targeted for prevention efforts among PWH.

DESIGN

We conducted a nested case-control study using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS), a longitudinal, observational cohort of Veterans from 2006-2015. A total of 5036 Veterans with HIV, of whom 461 died by SIUD, were included in the sample.

METHODS

SIUD was defined using the International Classification of Disease 10 th revision cause of death codes. Cases ( n  = 461) included individuals who died by SIUD (intentional, unintentional, and undetermined causes of death). Controls ( n  = 4575) were selected using incidence density sampling, matching on date of birth ± 1 year, race, sex, and HIV status. SIUD and suicide was estimated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

A previous suicide attempt, a diagnosis of an affective disorder, recent use of benzodiazepines, psychiatric hospitalization, and living in the western US significantly increased the risk of suicide and SIUD. Risk factors that appear more important for SIUD than for suicide included a drug use disorder, alcohol use disorder, Hepatitis C, VACS Index 2.0, current smoking, and high pain levels (7-10).

CONCLUSION

Limiting studies to known suicides obscures the larger public health burden of excess deaths from self-injurious behavior. Our findings demonstrate the benefit of expanding the focus to SIUD for the identification of modifiable risk factors that could be targeted for treatment.

Adaption and National Validation of a Tool for Predicting Mortality from Other Causes Among Men with Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

An electronic health record-based tool could improve accuracy and eliminate bias in provider estimation of the risk of death from other causes among men with nonmetastatic cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To recalibrate and validate the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Charlson Comorbidity Index (VACS-CCI) to predict non-prostate cancer mortality (non-PCM) and to compare it with a tool predicting prostate cancer mortality (PCM).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An observational cohort of men with biopsy-confirmed nonmetastatic prostate cancer, enrolled from 2001 to 2018 in the national US Veterans Health Administration (VA), was divided by the year of diagnosis into the development (2001-2006 and 2008-2018) and validation (2007) sets.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Mortality (all cause, non-PCM, and PCM) was evaluated. Accuracy was assessed using calibration curves and C statistic in the development, validation, and combined sets; overall; and by age (<65 and 65+ yr), race (White and Black), Hispanic ethnicity, and treatment groups.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Among 107 370 individuals, we observed 24 977 deaths (86% non-PCM). The median age was 65 yr, 4947 were Black, and 5010 were Hispanic. Compared with CCI and age alone (C statistic 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.68), VACS-CCI demonstrated improved validated discrimination (C statistic 0.75, 95% CI 0.74-0.75 for non-PCM). The prostate cancer mortality tool also discriminated well in validation (C statistic 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83). Both were well calibrated overall and within subgroups. Owing to missing data, 18 009/125 379 (14%) were excluded, and VACS-CCI should be validated outside the VA prior to outside application.

CONCLUSIONS

VACS-CCI is ready for implementation within the VA. Electronic health record-assisted calculation is feasible, improves accuracy over age and CCI alone, and could mitigate inaccuracy and bias in provider estimation.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Veterans Aging Cohort Study Charlson Comorbidity Index is ready for application within the Veterans Health Administration. Electronic health record-assisted calculation is feasible, improves accuracy over age and Charlson Comorbidity Index alone, and might help mitigate inaccuracy and bias in provider estimation of the risk of non-prostate cancer mortality.

Discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Cause-specific Mortality Among Persons With HIV in Europe and North America

Background

Predicting cause-specific mortality among people with HIV (PWH) could facilitate targeted care to improve survival. We assessed discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 in predicting cause-specific mortality among PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

Using Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration data for PWH who initiated ART between 2000 and 2018, VACS Index 2.0 scores (higher scores indicate worse prognosis) were calculated around a randomly selected visit date at least 1 year after ART initiation. Missingness in VACS Index 2.0 variables was addressed through multiple imputation. Cox models estimated associations between VACS Index 2.0 and causes of death, with discrimination evaluated using Harrell's C-statistic. Absolute mortality risk was modelled using flexible parametric survival models.

Results

Of 59 741 PWH (mean age: 43 years; 80% male), the mean VACS Index 2.0 at baseline was 41 (range: 0-129). For 2425 deaths over 168 162 person-years follow-up (median: 2.6 years/person), AIDS (n = 455) and non-AIDS-defining cancers (n = 452) were the most common causes. Predicted 5-year mortality for PWH with a mean VACS Index 2.0 score of 38 at baseline was 1% and approximately doubled for every 10-unit increase. The 5-year all-cause mortality C-statistic was .83. Discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths resulting from AIDS (0.91), liver-related (0.91), respiratory-related (0.89), non-AIDS infections (0.87), and non-AIDS-defining cancers (0.83), and lowest for suicides/accidental deaths (0.65).

Conclusions

For deaths among PWH, discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths with measurable physiological causes and was lowest for suicide/accidental deaths.

Contribution of Potentially Inappropriate Medications to Polypharmacy-Associated Risk of Mortality in Middle-Aged Patients: A National Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The role of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in mortality has been studied among those 65 years or older. While middle-aged individuals are believed to be less susceptible to the harms of polypharmacy, PIMs have not been as carefully studied in this group.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate PIM-associated risk of mortality and evaluate the extent PIMs explain associations between polypharmacy and mortality in middle-aged patients, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the largest integrated healthcare system in the US.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 41 to 64 who received a chronic medication (continuous use of ≥ 90 days) between October 1, 2008, and September 30, 2017.

MEASUREMENT

Patients were followed for 5 years until death or end of study period (September 30, 2019). Time-updated polypharmacy and hyperpolypharmacy were defined as 5-9 and ≥ 10 chronic medications, respectively. PIMs were identified using the Beers criteria (2015) and were time-updated. Cox models were adjusted for demographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 733,728 patients, 676,935 (92.3%) were men, 479,377 (65.3%) were White, and 156,092 (21.3%) were Black. By the end of follow-up, 104,361 (14.2%) patients had polypharmacy, 15,485 (2.1%) had hyperpolypharmacy, and 129,992 (17.7%) were dispensed ≥ 1 PIM. PIMs were independently associated with mortality (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.18). PIMs also modestly attenuated risk of mortality associated with polypharmacy (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11 before versus HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09 after) and hyperpolypharmacy (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.09-1.28 before versus HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.03-1.22 after). Patterns varied when stratified by sex and race/ethnicity.

LIMITATIONS

The predominantly male VA patient population may not represent the general population.

CONCLUSION

PIMs were independently associated with increased mortality, and partially explained polypharmacy-associated mortality in middle-aged people. Other mechanisms of injury from polypharmacy should also be studied.

Hematocrit-Independent Sampling Enables White Blood Cell Counts from Patterned Dried Blood Spot Cards

The accurate and efficient measurement of white blood cell (WBC) counts is vital for monitoring general patient health and can aid in the diagnosis of a range of possible infections or diseases. Even with their importance universally acknowledged, access to WBC counts is largely limited to those with access to phlebotomists and centralized clinical laboratories, which house the instruments that perform the tests. As a result, large populations of people (e.g., those that are home-bound or live in remote locations) lack facile access to testing. Dried blood spot (DBS) cards are often used to bridge these gaps in access to testing by offering the ability to collect blood at home for ambient shipping to laboratories. However, it is well understood that these cards, which are prepared from cellulose cardstocks without further modification, suffer from variabilities in accuracy and precision due to uncontrolled sample spreading and hematocrit effects, which have hindered their use to determine WBC counts. In this paper, we present a method to obtain an accurate WBC count using a patterned dried blood spot (pDBS) card, which comprises collection zones that meter volumes of dried blood. Using an input volume of 75 μL of whole blood, we demonstrate that, unlike the gold standard DBS card (Whatman 903), our pDBS design allows for the collection of replicate zones containing a reproducible, average volume of dried blood (12.1 μL, 7.8% CV) over the range of hematocrits from 25 to 55%. We then used qPCR to quantify the 18S rRNA gene to determine WBC counts from the volumes of blood that are metered in pDBS zones. We observe that WBC counts generated from our method are comparable to those measured with a HemoCue point-of-care WBC analyzer. Our approach to using pDBS cards as a blood collection device has the potential to support at-home sampling and other patient populations that need WBC counts but lack access to clinical facilities.

Combining Charlson comorbidity and VACS indices improves prognostic accuracy for all-cause mortality for patients with and without HIV in the Veterans Health Administration

Introduction

As people age with HIV (PWH), many comorbid diseases are more common than among age matched comparators without HIV (PWoH). While the Veterans Aging Cohort (VACS) Index 2.0 accurately predicts mortality in PWH using age and clinical biomarkers, the only included comorbidity is hepatitis C. We asked whether adding comorbid disease groupings from the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) improves the accuracy of VACS Index.

Methods

To maximize our ability to model mortality among older age groups, we began with PWoH in Veterans Health Administration (VA) from 2007-2017, divided into development and validation samples. Baseline predictors included age, and components of CCI and VACS Index (excluding CD4 count and HIV RNA). Patients were followed until December 31, 2021. We used Cox models to develop the VACS-CCI score and estimated mortality using a parametric (gamma) survival model. We compared accuracy using C-statistics and calibration curves in validation overall and within subgroups (gender, age

Results

The analytic sample consisted of 6,588,688 PWoH and 30,539 PWH. Among PWoH/PWH, median age was 65/55 years; 6%/3% were women; 15%/48% were Black and 5%/7% Hispanic. VACS-CCI provided the best discrimination (C-statistic = 0.81) with excellent calibration (predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped) overall and within subgroups. When VACS-CCI was applied to PWH it demonstrated similar discrimination as VACS Index 2.0 (C-statistic = 0.77 for both) but superior calibration among those with CD4 < 200. Discrimination was improved when CD4 and HIV RNA were added VACS-CCI (C-statistic = 0.79). Liver and kidney disease, congestive heart failure, malignancy, and dementia were negatively associated with CD4 (p-trends all <0.0001).

Discussion

Among PWH and PWoH in VA care, age alone weakly discriminates risk of mortality. VACS Index 2.0, CCI, and VACS-CCI all provide better discrimination, but VACS-CCI is more consistently calibrated. The association of comorbid diseases with lower CD4 underscores the likely role of HIV in non-AIDS conditions. Future work will include adding CD4 and HIV RNA to VACS-CCI and validating it in independent data.

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Key Words

• Charlson Comorbidity Index
• HIV
• VACS Index
• mortality
• prediction

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MESH Headings Collapse

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Affiliation(s)

Kathleen A. McGinnis VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States
Amy C. Justice VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
Vincent C. Marconi The Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Emory University School of Medicine and Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, United States VA Medical Center, Decatur, GA, United States
Maria C. Rodriguez-Barradas Infectious Diseases Section, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, United States Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
Ronald G. Hauser VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States Department of Laboratory Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
Krisann K. Oursler Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine, Roanoke, VA, United States VA Salem Healthcare System, Salem, VA, United States
Sheldon T. Brown James J. Peters VA Medical Center, Bronx, NY, United States
Kendall J. Bryant National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Bethesda, MD, United States
Janet P. Tate VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
for the Veterans Aging Cohort Study

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Risk factors for suicide among veterans living with and without HIV: a nested case-control study

The rate of suicide among people with HIV (PWH) remains elevated compared to the general population. The aim of the study was to examine the association between a broad range of risk factors, HIV-specific risk factors, and suicide. We conducted a nested case-control study using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) between 2006 and 2015. The risk of suicide was estimated using conditional logistic regression and models were stratified by HIV status. Most risk factors associated with suicide were similar between PWH and people without HIV; these included affective disorders, use of benzodiazepines, and mental health treatment. Among PWH, HIV-specific risk factors were not associated with suicide. A multiplicative interaction was observed between a diagnosis of HIV and a previous suicide attempt. Among PWH, a high prevalence of psychiatric, substance use disorders and multimorbidity contribute to the risk of suicide.

External validation of the Dat'AIDS score: A risk score for predicting 5-year overall mortality in people living with HIV aged 60 years or older

OBJECTIVE

To perform an external validation of the Dat'AIDS score for predicting 5-year overall mortality among people with HIV (PWH) aged 60 years or older.

METHODS

This was a multi-centre prospective cohort study at all sites participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We calculated the Dat'AIDS score in PWH aged 60 years or older at their first visit between 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2020. People living with HIV-2 and those whose Dat'AIDS score could not be calculated were excluded. Patients were followed until 1 January 2020. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Vital status was collected throughout the study period. We obtained population and score descriptive statistics and assessed the score's discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

We included 2205 participants (82% male) of median [interquartile range (IQR)] age 62.0 (60.3-67.0) years, mostly with viraemia <50 copies/mL (92.7%). Median follow-up time was 15.9 years and median (IQR) CD4 cell count at enrolment was 586 (420-782) cells/μL. In all, 152 deaths were recorded during a total follow-up period of 7147 patient-years. The median (IQR) observed Dat'AIDS score was 3 (0-8). Discriminative capacities were good as the C-statistic was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.77) and consistent across all subgroups. Comparison of observed and expected survival probabilities showed good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

External validation of the Dat'AIDS score in patients aged 60 years or older showed that it could be a useful tool not only for research purposes, but also to identify older patients at a higher mortality risk and to tailor the most appropriate interventions.

Excess mortality in US Veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study

BACKGROUND

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

METHODS

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e. excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths) and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 5 905 747 patients, the median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103 164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasizing the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Alcohol use and the longitudinal HIV care continuum for people with HIV who enrolled in care between 2011 and 2019

PURPOSE

We described the impact of alcohol use on longitudinal engagement in HIV care including loss to follow-up, durability of viral suppression, and death.

METHODS

We followed a cohort of 1781 people with HIV from enrolled in care at one of seven US clinics, 2011-2019 through 102 months. We used a multistate, time-varying Markov process and restricted mean time to summarize engagement in HIV care over follow-up according to baseline self-reported alcohol use (none, moderate, or unhealthy).

RESULTS

Our sample (86% male, 54% White) had median age of 35 years. Over 102 months, people with no, moderate, and unhealthy alcohol use averaged 62.3, 61.1, and 59.5 months virally suppressed, respectively. People who reported unhealthy or moderate alcohol use spent 5.1 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.8, 9.3) and 7.6 (95%CI: 3.1, 11.7) more months lost to care than nondrinkers. Compared to no use, unhealthy alcohol use was associated with 3.4 (95%CI: -5.6, -1.6) fewer months in care, not virally suppressed. There were no statistically significant differences after adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate or unhealthy drinking at enrollment in HIV care was associated with poor retention in care. Alcohol use was not associated with time spent virally suppressed.

Contingency management with stepped care for unhealthy alcohol use among individuals with HIV: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Although unhealthy alcohol use is associated with increased morbidity and mortality among people with HIV (PWH), many are ambivalent about engaging in treatment and experience variable responses to treatment. We describe the rationale, aims, and study design for the Financial Incentives, Randomization, with Stepped Treatment (FIRST) Trial, a multi-site randomized controlled efficacy trial.

METHODS

PWH in care recruited from clinics across the United States who reported unhealthy alcohol use, had a phosphatidylethanol (PEth) >20 ng/mL, and were not engaged in formal alcohol treatment were randomized to integrated contingency management with stepped care versus treatment as usual. The intervention involved two steps; Step 1: Contingency management (n = 5 sessions) with potential rewards based on 1) short-term abstinence; 2) longer-term abstinence; and 3) completion of healthy activities to promote progress in addressing alcohol consumption or conditions potentially impacted by alcohol; Step 2: Addiction physician management (n = 6 sessions) plus motivational enhancement therapy (n = 4 sessions). Participants' treatment was stepped up at week 12 if they lacked evidence of longer-term abstinence. Primary outcome was abstinence at week 24. Secondary outcomes included alcohol consumption (assessed by TLFB and PEth) and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 scores; exploratory outcomes included progress in addressing medical conditions potentially impacted by alcohol. Protocol adaptations due to the COVID-19 pandemic are described.

CONCLUSIONS

The FIRST Trial is anticipated to yield insights on the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of integrated contingency management with stepped care to address unhealthy alcohol use among PWH.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov identifier: NCT03089320.

Leukocyte Count and Coronary Artery Disease Events in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PWH) have increased cardiovascular risk. Higher leukocyte count has been associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) events in the general population. It is unknown whether the leukocyte-CAD association also applies to PWH.

METHODS

In a case-control study nested within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, we obtained uni- and multivariable odds ratios (OR) for CAD events, based on traditional and HIV-related CAD risk factors, leukocyte count, and confounders previously associated with leukocyte count.

RESULTS

We included 536 cases with a first CAD event (2000-2021; median age, 56 years; 87% male; 84% with suppressed HIV RNA) and 1464 event-free controls. Cases had higher latest leukocyte count before CAD event than controls (median [interquartile range], 6495 [5300-7995] vs 5900 [4910-7200]; P < .01), but leukocytosis (>11 000/µL) was uncommon (4.3% vs 2.1%; P = .01). In the highest versus lowest leukocyte quintile at latest time point before CAD event, participants had univariable CAD-OR = 2.27 (95% confidence interval, 1.63-3.15) and multivariable adjusted CAD-OR = 1.59 (1.09-2.30). For comparison, univariable CAD-OR for dyslipidemia, diabetes, and recent abacavir exposure were 1.58 (1.29-1.93), 2.19 (1.59-3.03), and 1.73 (1.37-2.17), respectively. Smoking and, to a lesser degree, alcohol and ethnicity attenuated the leukocyte-CAD association. Leukocytes measured up to 8 years before the event were significantly associated with CAD events.

CONCLUSIONS

PWH in Switzerland with higher leukocyte counts have an independently increased risk of CAD events, to a degree similar to traditional and HIV-related risk factors.

Association Between VACS Index and Health-Related Quality of Life in Persons with HIV: Moderating Role of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption

BACKGROUND

The health status of people with HIV (PWH) influences their health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Modifiable lifestyle factors may improve HRQOL. This study (1) explores the association between modifiable lifestyle factors (physical activity and nutrition) and HRQOL and (2) examines if these lifestyle factors moderate the association health status and HRQOL.

METHODS

Participants included 91 community dwelling PWH (age 36-65 years) from the university lab. Participants reported mental and physical HRQOL via the Medical Outcome Study 36-Item Short-Form (SF-36). Physical activity was examined via the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and nutrition (i.e., fruit and vegetable consumption) was assessed with the By-Meal Screener. Health status was ascertained via the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index.

RESULTS

Aim 1 analyses indicated that neither physical activity nor nutrition was related to mental HRQOL (p's > .05). However, greater physical activity (β = .33, p < .01) and nutrition (β = .23, p = .03) were each independently related to better physical HRQOL and remained significant after accounting for co-occurring medical conditions. For aim 2, the interaction between health status and nutrition was statistically significant (β = .24, p = .02), such that the association between worse health status and worse physical HRQOL was weaker with better nutrition. There was not a statistically significant interaction between physical activity and health status on physical HRQOL (p > .05).

CONCLUSION

Physical HRQOL is related to self-reported physical activity and nutrition, with nutrition showing a moderating effect on the association between health status and physical HRQOL. Thus, future interventional studies designed to improve physical HRQOL should target both physical activity and nutrition.

Delirium among people aging with and without HIV: Role of alcohol and Neurocognitively active medications

BACKGROUND

People aging with and without HIV (PWH and PWoH) want to avoid neurocognitive dysfunction, especially delirium. Continued use of alcohol in conjunction with neurocognitively active medications (NCAMs) may be a largely underappreciated cause, especially for PWH who experience polypharmacy a decade earlier than PWoH. We compare absolute and relative risk of delirium among PWH and PWoH by age, level of alcohol use, and exposure to NCAMs.

METHODS

Using the VACS cohort, we compare absolute and relative risk of inpatient delirium among PWH and PWoH by age, level of alcohol use, and exposure to NCAMs between 2007 and 2019. We matched each case based on age, race/ethnicity, sex, HIV, baseline year, and observation time with up to 5 controls. The case/control date was defined as date of admission for cases and the date corresponding to the same length of time on study for controls. Level of alcohol use was defined using Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C). Medication exposure was measured from 45 to 3 days prior to index date; medications were classified as anticholinergic NCAM, non-anticholinergic NCAM, or non NCAM and counts generated. We used logistic regression to determine odds ratios (ORs) for delirium associated with medication counts stratified by HIV status and adjusted for demographics, severity of illness, and related diagnoses.

RESULTS

PWH experienced a higher incidence of delirium (5.6, [95% CI 5.3-5.9/1000 PY]) than PWoH (5.0, [95% CI 4.8-5.1/1000 PY]). In multivariable analysis, anticholinergic and non-anticholinergic NCAM counts and level of alcohol use demonstrated strong independent dose-response associations with delirium.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreasing alcohol use and limiting the use of neurocognitively active medications may help decrease excess rates of delirium, especially among PWH.

HIV viremia contributes to neurocognitive impairments in persons who use cocaine

Persons with HIV (PWH) who use illicit drugs are at elevated risk for neurocognitive impairment (NCI). This study investigated the effects of HIV disease and HIV viremia on NCI among adults who use cocaine. PWH who were not virologically suppressed showed greater global deficits compared to participants with HIV viral suppression and HIV-negative participants, but no differences emerged between the latter two groups. These findings highlight the adverse effects of poorly controlled HIV disease on NCI, beyond the independent effects of cocaine on cognition, and underscore the importance of strengthening the HIV care continuum for persons who use cocaine.

Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans

Background

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

Results

Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

Conclusions

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Epigenetic Age Acceleration Markers Are Associated With Physiologic Frailty and All-Cause Mortality in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers that provide insight into drivers of aging are needed for people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH). The study objective was to determine if epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) markers are associated with physiologic frailty measured by the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index and predict all-cause mortality for PWH.

METHODS

Epigenome-wide DNA methylation was profiled in VACS total white blood cell samples collected during 2005-2007 from 531 PWH to generate 6 established markers of EAA. The association of each EAA marker was tested with VACS Index 2.0. All-cause mortality was assessed over 10 years. For each EAA marker, the hazard ratio per increased year was determined using Cox regression. To evaluate mortality discrimination, C-statistics were derived.

RESULTS

Participants were mostly men (98.5%) and non-Hispanic Black (84.4%), with a mean age of 52.4 years (standard deviation [SD], 7.8 years). Mean VACS Index score was 59.3 (SD, 16.4) and 136 deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 8.7 years. Grim age acceleration (AA), PhenoAA, HannumAA, and extrinsic epigenetic AA were associated with the VACS Index and mortality. HorvathAA and intrinsic epigenetic AA were not associated with either outcome. GrimAA had the greatest mortality discrimination among EAA markers and predicted mortality independently of the VACS Index. One-year increase in GrimAA was associated with a 1-point increase in VACS Index and a 10% increased hazard for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed associations between EAA markers with physiologic frailty and mortality support future research to provide mechanistic insight into the accelerated aging process and inform interventions tailored to PWH for promoting increased healthspan.

Clinical Features, Phenotypic Markers and Outcomes of Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma between HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Chinese Patients

Background: The effect of HIV infection on the clinicopathological characteristics of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) remains debatable. Methods: Fifty-three HIV-infected and ninety-three HIV-uninfected DLBCL patients were enrolled in the retrospective study by propensity score matching for sex, age, body mass index and international prognostic index (IPI) at a ratio of 1:2. The clinicopathological characteristics were compared between the two groups. Results: HIV-infected DLBCL patients had lower white blood cell counts [×109/L; 4.4 (3.4−5.6) vs. 6.1 (4.2−8.2), p < 0.001], platelet counts (×109/L; 184.7 ± 89.3 vs. 230.0 ± 113.9, p = 0.014) and serum albumin (g/L; 37.3 ± 6.9 vs. 41.3 ± 6.2, p < 0.001) but higher incidences of central nervous system (CNS) involvement (9.4% vs. 1.1%, p = 0.014), bone marrow involvement (24.5% vs. 11.5%, p = 0.044) and Epstein−Barr viremia (61.1% vs. 26.7%, p = 0.002) than HIV-uninfected patients. In terms of histopathology, HIV-infected patients had higher positivity of Epstein−Barr virus-encoded small RNA (EBER) (41.7% vs. 6.7%, p = 0.002), but lower CD20 (90.2% vs. 98.7%, p= 0.029) and CD79a (23.1% vs. 53.7%, p < 0.001) expression. The overall response rate (ORR) at the end of chemotherapy (70.2% vs. 87.8%, p= 0.012) and 1-year overall survival (OS) (61.7% vs. 84.2%, log-rank p = 0.006) in HIV-infected patients were significantly lower than those in HIV-uninfected patients. Multivariate analysis suggested IPI ≤2.0 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) (95% confidence interval): 5.0 (1.2−21.2), p = 0.030] was associated with ORR, hypoalbuminemia [AOR: 3.3 (1.3−9.1), p = 0.018] and CNS involvement [AOR: 3.3 (1.0−10.5), p = 0.044] were associated with reduced 1-year OS in HIV-infected patients. Conclusion: HIV-infected DLBCL patients have unique blood profiles and phenotypic markers. Low ORR and 1-year OS were observed in HIV-infected DLBCL patients in our study, even in the HAART era.

Polypharmacy and medical intensive care unit (MICU) admission and 10-year all-cause mortality risk among hospitalized patients with and without HIV

Objective

Medical intensive care unit (MICU) admissions have been declining in people with HIV infection (PWH), but frequency of outpatient polypharmacy (prescription of ≥5 chronic medications) has increased. Among those hospitalized, we examined whether outpatient polypharmacy is associated with subsequent 1-year MICU admission or 10-year all-cause mortality, and if the association varies by HIV status.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Methods

Using a national electronic health record cohort of Veterans in care, we ascertained outpatient polypharmacy during fiscal year (FY) 2009 and followed patients for 1-year MICU admission and 10-year mortality. We assessed associations of any polypharmacy (yes/no and categorized ≤4, 5–7, 8–9, and ≥10 medications) with 1-year MICU admission and 10-year mortality using logistic and Cox regressions, respectively, adjusted for demographics, HIV status, substance use, and severity of illness.

Results

Among 9898 patients (1811 PWH) hospitalized in FY2010, prior outpatient polypharmacy was common (51%). Within 1 year, 1532 (15%) had a MICU admission and within 10 years, 4585 (46%) died. Polypharmacy was associated with increased odds of 1-year MICU admission, in both unadjusted (odds ratio (OR) 1.36 95% CI: (1.22, 1.52)) and adjusted models, aOR (95% CI) = 1.28 (1.14, 1.43) and with 10-year mortality in unadjusted, hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) = 1.40 (1.32, 1.48), and adjusted models, HR (95% CI) = 1.26 (1.19, 1.34). Increasing levels of polypharmacy demonstrated a dose-response with both outcomes and by HIV status, with a stronger association among PWH.

Conclusions

Among hospitalized patients, prior outpatient polypharmacy was associated with 1-year MICU admission and 10-year all-cause mortality after adjusting for severity of illness in PWH and PWoH.

Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index and Frailty: One Part of the Whole

In HIV medicine, the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index is associated to some geriatric syndromes and has also been recently used as a proxy of frailty. However, using it as a proxy for the frailty phenotype may inadvertently interchange two different concepts. The purpose of this study was to evaluate to what extent the frailty phenotype may be explained by the index. Cross-sectional analysis included 393 participants with HIV aged 50 or older. Somers' delta (d) was calculated, and a multinomial logistic regression model was run to determine to what extent the VACS index scores explained the probability of being prefrail or frail. Mean age was 57.6 (standard deviation 6.5) years and 87.3% men. A weak, but positive association between the VACS 2.0 index score and the frailty phenotype was established (Somers' d = 0.120, p < .001). The multinomial logistic regression showed that prefrail and frail participants had higher probabilities for greater VACS index scores [OR = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.01-1.09; p = .006 and OR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.26; p < .001, respectively]; however, VACS index only explained <12% of the variability observed in the frailty phenotype. High VACS index scores were associated with a greater probability of being frail; however, with a weak association. Thus, we should be cautious when using the VACS index as a general proxy of frailty, particularly for the frailty phenotype. However, the VACS index may be used as a means to identify persons who might benefit from further comprehensive geriatric assessment.

Predictive Risk Model for Serious Falls Among Older Persons Living With HIV

BACKGROUND

Older (older than 50 years) persons living with HIV (PWH) are at elevated risk for falls. We explored how well our algorithm for predicting falls in a general population of middle-aged Veterans (age 45-65 years) worked among older PWH who use antiretroviral therapy (ART) and whether model fit improved with inclusion of specific ART classes.

METHODS

This analysis included 304,951 six-month person-intervals over a 15-year period (2001-2015) contributed by 26,373 older PWH from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study who were taking ART. Serious falls (those falls warranting a visit to a health care provider) were identified by external cause of injury codes and a machine-learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Potential predictors included a fall within the past 12 months, demographics, body mass index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 score, substance use, and measures of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. We assessed discrimination and calibration from application of the original coefficients (model derived from middle-aged Veterans) to older PWH and then reassessed by refitting the model using multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether model performance improved with indicators of ART classes.

RESULTS

With application of the original coefficients, discrimination was good (C-statistic 0.725; 95% CI: 0.719 to 0.730) but calibration was poor. After refitting the model, both discrimination (C-statistic 0.732; 95% CI: 0.727 to 0.734) and calibration were good. Including ART classes did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSIONS

After refitting their coefficients, the same variables predicted risk of serious falls among older PWH nearly and they had among middle-aged Veterans.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America

BACKGROUND

The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality.

METHODS

Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018.

RESULTS

Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

Comorbidity and life expectancy in shared decision making for lung cancer screening

Shared decision making (SDM) is an important part of lung cancer screening (LCS) that includes discussing the risks and benefits of screening, potential outcomes, patient eligibility and willingness to participate, tobacco cessation, and tailoring a strategy to an individual patient. More than other cancer screening tests, eligibility for LCS is nuanced, incorporating the patient's age as well as tobacco use history and overall health status. Since comorbidities and multimorbidity (ie, 2 or more comorbidities) impact the risks and benefits of LCS, these topics are a fundamental part of decision-making. However, there is currently little evidence available to guide clinicians in addressing comorbidities and an individual's "appropriateness" for LCS during SDM visits. Therefore, this literature review investigates the impact of comorbidities and multimorbidity among patients undergoing LCS. Based on available evidence and guideline recommendations, we identify comorbidities that should be considered during SDM conversations and review best practices for navigating SDM conversations in the context of LCS. Three conditions are highlighted since they concomitantly portend higher risk of developing lung cancer, potentially increase risk of screening-related evaluation and treatment complications and can be associated with limited life expectancy: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and human immunodeficiency virus infection.

Periods of Homelessness Linked to Higher VACS Index Among HIV-Positive People Who Use Drugs

We sought to evaluate the impact of homelessness on HIV disease progression among people who use unregulated drugs (PWUD) living with HIV and test if this association was mediated by adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We applied general linear mixed-effects modeling to estimate the longitudinal relationship between homelessness and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index, a validated measure of HIV disease progression that predicts all-cause mortality, among a prospective cohort of PWUD. In a longitudinal model adjusted for ART adherence, homelessness was significantly associated with increased VACS Index scores and 16% of the association was mediated by ART adherence. These findings indicate that homelessness was a significant risk factor for HIV disease progression and this association was marginally mediated by ART adherence. Future studies are needed to quantify the other mechanisms (e.g., food insecurity, mental health) by which homelessness increases mortality risk among PWUD living with HIV.

Self-Reported Cannabis Use and HIV Viral Control among Patients with HIV Engaged in Care: Results from a National Cohort Study

Background: The association between cannabis use and HIV-1 RNA (viral load) among people with HIV (PWH) engaged in care is unclear. Methods: We used data collected from 2002 to 2018 on PWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) enrolled in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations between self-reported past-year cannabis use and detectable viral load (≥500 copies/mL), with and without adjustment for demographics, other substance use, and adherence. Results: Among 2515 participants, 97% were male, 66% were Black, the mean age was 50 years, and 33% had detectable HIV viral load at the first study visit. In unadjusted analyses, PWH with any past-year cannabis use had 21% higher odds of a detectable viral load than those with no past-year use (OR = 1.21; 95% CI, 1.07-1.37). However, there was no significant association between cannabis use and viral load after adjustment. Conclusions: Among PWH engaged in care and receiving ART, cannabis use is associated with decreased adherence in unadjusted analyses but does not appear to directly impact viral control. Future studies are needed to understand other potential risks and benefits of cannabis use among PWH.

Cannabis use, pain interference, and prescription opioid receipt among persons with HIV: a target trial emulation study

Concomitant with expanded legalization, cannabis is increasingly used to treat chronic pain among persons with HIV (PWH), despite equivocal benefit in research limited by small sample sizes and short duration of follow-up. To address these limitations, among a sample of PWH with pain interference enrolled in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, we performed a target trial emulation study to compare the impact of four cannabis use strategies on pain interference. Among those receiving long-term opioid therapy (LTOT), we also explored impact of these strategies on ≥ 25% LTOT dose reduction. Among the analytic sample (N = 1284), the majority were men with a mean age of 50. Approximately 31% used cannabis and 12% received LTOT at baseline. Adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, cannabis use in any of 4 longitudinal patterns was not associated with resolved pain interference over 12- to 24-month follow-up. Among 153 participants receiving LTOT at baseline, cannabis use at both baseline and follow-up was negatively associated with LTOT dose reduction compared to no use at both baseline and follow-up. These findings support other observational studies finding no association between cannabis use and improved chronic pain or LTOT reduction among PWH.

Longitudinal analysis of the prevalence and correlates of heavy episodic drinking and self-reported opioid use among a national cohort of patients with HIV

BACKGROUND

Heavy episodic drinking (HED) is a risk factor for opioid-related overdose and negatively impacts HIV disease progression. Among a national cohort of patients with HIV (PWH), we examined sociodemographic and clinical correlates of concomitant HED and self-reported opioid use.

METHODS

We used data collected from 2002 through 2018 from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a prospective cohort including PWH in care at eight US Veterans Health Administration sites. HED was defined as consuming six or more drinks at least once in the year prior to survey collection. We examined the relationship between HED and self-reported opioid use and created a 4-level composite variable of HED and opioid use. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate odds of reporting concomitant HED and self-reported opioid use.

RESULTS

Among 3702 PWH, 1458 (39.4%) reported HED during the study period and 350 (9.5%) reported opioid use. In the multinomial model, compared to reporting neither HED nor opioid use, lifetime housing instability (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 2.35), Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 (a measure of disease severity; aOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.28), depressive symptoms (aOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.42 to 3.62), past-year cigarette smoking (aOR 3.06, 95% CI 1.53 to 6.14), cannabis use (aOR 1.69, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.62), and cocaine/stimulant use (aOR 11.54, 95% CI 7.40 to 17.99) were independently associated with greater odds of concomitant HED and self-reported opioid use. Compared to having attended no college, having some college or more (aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.59) was associated with lower odds of concomitant HED and self-reported opioid use.

CONCLUSIONS

Among PWH, concomitant HED and self-reported opioid use are more common among individuals with depressive symptoms and substance use, structural vulnerabilities, and greater illness severity. Efforts to minimize opioid-related risk should address high-risk drinking as a modifiable risk factor for harm among these groups.

Predicting counterfactual risks under hypothetical treatment strategies: an application to HIV

The accuracy of a prediction algorithm depends on contextual factors that may vary across deployment settings. To address this inherent limitation of prediction, we propose an approach to counterfactual prediction based on the g-formula to predict risk across populations that differ in their distribution of treatment strategies. We apply this to predict 5-year risk of mortality among persons receiving care for HIV in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration under different hypothetical treatment strategies. First, we implement a conventional approach to develop a prediction algorithm in the observed data and show how the algorithm may fail when transported to new populations with different treatment strategies. Second, we generate counterfactual data under different treatment strategies and use it to assess the robustness of the original algorithm's performance to these differences and to develop counterfactual prediction algorithms. We discuss how estimating counterfactual risks under a particular treatment strategy is more challenging than conventional prediction as it requires the same data, methods, and unverifiable assumptions as causal inference. However, this may be required when the alternative assumption of constant treatment patterns across deployment settings is unlikely to hold and new data is not yet available to retrain the algorithm.

Telehealth Exercise Intervention in Older Adults With HIV: Protocol of a Multisite Randomized Trial

ABSTRACT

People with HIV (PWH) have reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, but a high intensity, easily disseminated exercise program has not yet been successfully developed in older PWH. The purpose of this article is to describe a synchronous telehealth exercise intervention in older PWH, delivered from one medical center to two other centers. Eighty older PWH (≥50 years) on antiretroviral therapy will be randomized to exercise or delayed entry control groups. Functional circuit exercise training, which does not entail stationary equipment, will be provided by real-time videoconferencing, 3 times weekly for 12 weeks, to small groups. Continuous remote telemonitoring of heart rate will ensure high exercise intensity. We hypothesize that telehealth exercise will be feasible and increase cardiorespiratory fitness and reduce sarcopenia and frailty. Findings will provide new insight to target successful aging in older PWH and can also be widely disseminated to PWH of any age or other patient populations.

Ageing with HIV: Challenges and biomarkers

The antiretroviral treatment (ART) developed to control HIV infection led to a revolution in the prognosis of people living with HIV (PLWH). PLWH underwent from suffering severe disease and often fatal complications at young ages to having a chronic condition and a life expectancy close to the general population. Nevertheless, chronic age-related diseases increase as PLWH age. The harmful effect of HIV infection on the individual's immune system adds to its deterioration during ageing, exacerbating comorbidities. In addition, PLWH are more exposed to risk factors affecting ageing, such as coinfections or harmful lifestyles. The ART initiation reverses the biological ageing process but only partially, and additionally can have some toxicities that influence ageing. Observational studies suggest premature ageing in PLWH. Therefore, there is considerable interest in the early prediction of unhealthy ageing through validated biomarkers, easy to implement in HIV-clinical settings. The most promising biomarkers are second-generation epigenetic clocks and integrative algorithms.

Association of the VACS Index With Hospitalization Among People With HIV in the NA-ACCORD

BACKGROUND

People with HIV (PWH) have a higher hospitalization rate than the general population. The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index at study entry well predicts hospitalization in PWH, but it is unknown if the time-updated parameter improves hospitalization prediction. We assessed the association of parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 with the 5-year risk of hospitalization.

SETTING

PWH ≥30 years old with at least 12 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use and contributing hospitalization data from 2000 to 2016 in North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) were included. Three parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 were assessed and categorized by quartile: (1) "baseline" measurement at study entry; (2) time-updated measurements; and (3) cumulative scores calculated using the trapezoidal rule.

METHODS

Discrete-time proportional hazard models estimated the crude and adjusted associations (and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) of the VACS Index parameterizations and all-cause hospitalizations. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) assessed the model fit with each of the VACS Index parameters.

RESULTS

Among 7289 patients, 1537 were hospitalized. Time-updated VACS Index fitted hospitalization best with a more distinct dose-response relationship [score <43: reference; score 43-55: aHR = 1.93 (95% CI: 1.66 to 2.23); score 55-68: aHR = 3.63 (95% CI: 3.12 to 4.23); score ≥68: aHR = 9.98 (95% CI: 8.52 to 11.69)] than study entry and cumulative VACS Index after adjusting for known risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Time-updated VACS Index 2.0 had the strongest association with hospitalization and best fit to the data. Health care providers should consider using it when assessing hospitalization risk among PWH.

Design and methods of a randomized trial testing the novel Wellness Intervention for Smokers Living with HIV (WISH)

Smoking rates are disproportionately high among people living with HIV. Smokers living with HIV (SLWH) are also largely unaware of the HIV-specific deleterious effects of smoking and often lack motivation and confidence in their ability to quit tobacco. To address these issues, we developed the Wellness Intervention for Smokers Living with HIV (WISH). WISH is grounded in the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model and is designed for all SLWH, regardless of their initial motivation to quit. It follows evidence-based, best practice guidelines for nicotine dependence treatment, but is innovative in its use of a comprehensive wellness approach that addresses smoking within the context of HIV self-management including treatment adherence and engagement, stress management, substance use, and other personally relevant health behavior goals. The described randomized trial will enroll SLWH who are receiving care at Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers and compare WISH's impact on smoking behavior to standard care services offered through the National VA Quitline and SmokefreeVET texting program. It will also assess intervention impact on markers of immune status and mortality risk. If effective, WISH could be disseminated to Veterans nationwide and could serve as a model for designing quitline interventions for other smokers who are ambivalent about quitting. The current paper outlines the rationale and methodology of the WISH trial, one of a series of studies recently funded by the National Cancer Institute to advance understanding of how to better promote smoking cessation among SLWH.

Higher Veterans Aging Cohort Study 2.0 Index Score Predicts Functional Decline Among Older Adults Living with HIV

Living with HIV has been proposed as a risk factor for the early development of functional decline. Composite marker tools like the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index, which includes HIV-associated and non-HIV-related markers of disease may better reflect multiorgan system injury and potentially predict functional outcomes. Therefore, the objective of this work is to determine whether higher VACS 2.0 Index scores predicts functional decline among older adults living with HIV (OALWH). Longitudinal study, including 131 adults ages 50 or older who underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment at baseline and follow-up, at least a year apart. Functional status was determined by the gait speed (seconds for a 4-m distance). Linear regression models were constructed to determine the relationship between VACS 2.0 Index at baseline with gait speed at follow-up adjusted for potential confounders. The median for age was 58.0 years (range 50-84), and 81.7% were male. At baseline, the median VACS 2.0 Index score was 50.4 (interquartile range 42.2-65.3). The adjusted linear regression analysis found that higher baseline VACS 2.0 Index scores were significantly associated with a decline in gait speed (p = .033) at follow-up. The results suggest that the VACS 2.0 Index works as a predictor of functional decline as showed by decline in gait speed and might serve as an easy tool to identify OALWH who might need additional resources or interventions to prevent it.

A SMARTTT approach to Treating Tobacco use disorder in persons with HIV (SMARTTT): Rationale and design for a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation study

BACKGROUND

Tobacco use disorder is a leading threat to the health of persons with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral treatment and identifying optimal treatment approaches to promote abstinence is critical. We describe the rationale, aims, and design for a new study, "A SMART Approach to Treating Tobacco Use Disorder in Persons with HIV (SMARTTT)," a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial.

METHODS

In HIV clinics within three health systems in the northeastern United States, PWH with tobacco use disorder are randomized to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) with or without contingency management (NRT vs. NRT + CM). Participants with response (defined as exhaled carbon monoxide (eCO)-confirmed smoking abstinence at week 12), continue the same treatment for another 12 weeks. Participants with non-response, are re-randomized to either switch medications from NRT to varenicline or intensify treatment to a higher CM reward schedule. Interventions are delivered by clinical pharmacists embedded in HIV clinics. The primary outcome is eCO-confirmed smoking abstinence; secondary outcomes include CD4 cell count, HIV viral load suppression, and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 score (a validated measure of morbidity and mortality based on laboratory data). Consistent with a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation design and grounded in implementation science frameworks, we will conduct an implementation-focused process evaluation in parallel. Study protocol adaptations related to the COVID-19 pandemic have been made.

CONCLUSIONS

SMARTTT is expected to generate novel findings regarding the impact, cost, and implementation of an adaptive clinical pharmacist-delivered intervention involving medications and CM to promote smoking abstinence among PWH. ClinicalTrials.govidentifier:NCT04490057.

Development and external validation of a prognostic model for survival of people living with HIV/AIDS initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background: Most existing prognostic models for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) were derived from cohorts in high-income settings established a decade ago and may not be applicable for contemporary patients, especially for patients in developing settings. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for survival in PLWHA initiating ART based on a large population-based cohort in China.

Methods: We obtained data for patients from the Chinese National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program database. The derivation cohort consisted of PLWHA treated between February 2004 and December 2019 in a tertiary center in Guangzhou, South China, and validation cohort of patients treated between February 2004 to December 2018 in another tertiary hospital in Shenyang, Northeast China. We included ART-naive patients aged above 16 who initiated a combination ART regimen containing at least three drugs and had at least one follow-up record. We assessed 20 candidate predictors including patient characteristics, disease characteristics, and laboratory tests for an endpoint of death from all causes. The prognostic model was developed from a multivariable cox regression model with predictors selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso). To assess the model's predictive ability, we quantified the discriminative power using the concordance (C) statistic and calibration accuracy by comparing predicted survival probabilities with observed survival probabilities estimated with the Kaplan–Meier method.

Findings: The derivation cohort included 16481 patients with a median follow-up of 3·41 years, among whom 735 died. The external validation cohort comprised 5751 participants with a median follow-up of 2·71 years, of whom 185 died. The final model included 10 predictors: age, body mass index, route of HIV acquisition, coinfection with tuberculosis, coinfection with hepatitis C virus, haemoglobin, CD4 cell count, platelet count, aspartate transaminase, and plasma glucose. The C-statistic was 0·84 (95% confidence interval 0·82–0·85) in internal validation after adjustment of optimism and 0·84 (0·82–0·87) in external validation, which remained consistently above 0·75 in all landmark time points within five years of follow up when using time-updated laboratory measurements. The calibration accuracy was satisfactory in both derivation and validation cohorts.

Interpretation: We have developed and externally validated a model to predict long-term survival in PLWHA on ART. This model could be applied to individualized patient counseling and management during treatment, and future innovative trial design.

Funding: Natural Science Foundation of China Excellent Young Scientists Fund, Natural Science Foundation of China International/Regional Research Collaboration Project, Natural Science Foundation of China Young Scientist Fund, the National Science and Technology Major Project of China,National Special Research Program of China for Important Infectious Diseases, 13th Five-Year Key Special Project of Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Joint-innovation Program in Healthcare for Special Scientific Research Projects of Guangzhou.

Frailty in the Context of Older People Living With HIV: A Concept Analysis

Despite advances in knowledge about older people living with HIV infection (PLWH), frailty remains a challenge to HIV care. Numerous studies have documented its impact; however, the concept remains unclear. Concept exploration of frailty in the context of older PLWH was conducted to provide a comprehensive understanding of the concept based on the Walker and Avant method. After the literature review, a concept analysis and a definition of frailty among older PLWH emerged. Implications for further practice, education, public policy, and research are presented to use the concept consistently, develop interventions to prevent frailty, and improve health outcomes.

Polypharmacy-associated risk of hospitalisation among people ageing with and without HIV: an observational study

Background

Polypharmacy, defined as use of five or more medications concurrently, is associated with adverse health outcomes and people ageing with HIV might be at greater risk than similar uninfected individuals. We aimed to determine whether known pairwise drug interactions (KPDIs) were associated with risk of admission to hospital (hereafter referred to as hospitalisation) and medication count among people ageing with and without HIV after accounting for physiological frailty.

Methods

In this observational study, we collected individual-level data for participants of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and with supressed HIV-1 RNA and people without HIV who were receiving at least one prescription medication, based on active medications in the 2009 fiscal year (ie, Oct 1, 2008, to Sept 30, 2009). We identified KPDIs among these patients by linking prescription fill and refill data with data from DrugBank (version 5.0.11). We collected data on all-cause mortality and hospitalisations between Oct 1, 2009, and March 31, 2019. We compared KPDI counts using random selection and actual patterns of use across medication counts from two to 12. We created a weighted KPDI Index on the basis of the average association of each KPDI with mortality among people ageing without HIV and used nested Cox models stratified by HIV status to estimate the association between medication count and hospitalisation, with incremental adjustments for demographics, physiological frailty, and KPDI Index.

Findings

We collected data for 9186 people ageing with HIV and 37 930 individuals without HIV. 45 913 (97·4%) of 47 116 patients were men and the sample was predominantly aged 50–64 years (30 413 [64·6%]). Compared with a random sample of medications, real-world pattern of medication counts and combinations were associated with five-to-six times more KPDIs (eg, for a combination of six medications, KPDI count was 1·09 in the random sample, 5·49 in the HIV-negative population, and 7·13 in the HIV-positive population). For each additional observed medication, people ageing with HIV had approximately 2·94 additional KPDIs and comparators had approximately 2·67 additional KPDIs. Adjustment for demographics, physiological frailty, and KPDI Index reduced the association between medication count and risk of hospitalisation for people ageing with HIV (hazard ratio 1·08 [95% CI 1·07–1·09] reduced to 1·06 [1·05–1·07]) and those without HIV (1·08 [1·07–1·08] reduced to 1·04 [1·03–1·05]).

Interpretation

For each additional medication, people ageing with HIV have more drug–drug interactions than those without HIV. Adjusting for known non-ART drug–drug interactions, each additional non-ART medication confers excess risk of hospitalisation for people ageing with HIV. Randomised trials will be needed to determine whether reducing these interactions improves outcomes.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Department of Veterans Affairs Health Services Research & Development, and Office of Research and Development.

Long-term Patterns of Self-reported Opioid Use, VACS Index, and Mortality Among People with HIV Engaged in Care

Longitudinal analyses of opioid use and overall disease severity among people with HIV (PWH) are lacking. We used joint-trajectory and Cox proportional hazard modeling to examine the relationship between self-reported opioid use and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0, a validated measure of disease severity and mortality, among PWH engaged in care. Using data from 2002 and 2018, trajectory modeling classified 20% of 3658 PWH in low (i.e., lower risk of mortality), 40% in moderate, 28% in high, and 12% in extremely high VACS Index trajectories. Compared to those with moderate VACS Index trajectory, PWH with an extremely high trajectory were more likely to have high, then de-escalating opioid use (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 5·17 [3·19-8·37]) versus stable, infrequent use. PWH who report high frequency opioid use have increased disease severity and mortality risk over time, even when frequency of opioid use de-escalates.

Derivation and external validation of a risk score for predicting HIV-associated tuberculosis to support case finding and preventive therapy scale-up: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/μL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/μL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (2 points), and severe anemia (hemoglobin <8g/dL) (3 points). Sensitivity using WHO 4-symptom TB screen was 73%, 80%, 94%, and 94% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, but increased to 88%, 87%, 97%, and 97%, when a clinical score of ≥2 was used. Negative predictive value (NPV) also increased 1%, 0.3%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, when the clinical score of ≥2 replaced WHO 4-symptom TB screen. Categorizing risk scores into low (<2), moderate (2 to 10), and high-risk categories (>10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources.

A Prognostic Model to Assess Long-Term Survival of Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: A 15-Year Retrospective Cohort Study in Southwestern China

BACKGROUND

Because there is no assessment tool for survival of people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural southwestern China, we aimed to formulate and validate a simple-to-use model to predict long-term overall survival at the initiation of ART.

METHODS

In total, 36 268 eligible participants registered in the Guangxi autonomous region between December 2003 and December 2018 were enrolled and randomized into development and validation cohorts. Predictive variables were determined based on Cox hazard models and specialists' advice. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were measured, respectively.

RESULTS

The prognostic combined 14 variables: sex, age, marital status, infectious route, opportunistic infection, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related symptoms, body mass index, CD4+ T lymphocyte count, white blood cell, platelet, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, aspartate transaminase, and total bilirubin. Age, aspartate transaminase, and serum creatinine were assigned higher risk scores than that of CD4+ T lymphocytopenia count and having opportunistic infections or AIDS-related symptoms. At 3 time points (1, 3, and 5 years), the area under the curve ranged from 0.75 to 0.81 and the Brier scores ranged from 0.03 to 0.07. The decision curve analysis showed an acceptable clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic model incorporating routine baseline data can provide a useful tool for early risk appraisal and treatment management in ART in rural southwestern China. Moreover, our study underscores the role of non-AIDS-defining events in long-term survival in ART.

Sociodemographic and clinical correlates of gabapentin receipt with and without opioids among a national cohort of patients with HIV

Gabapentin is commonly prescribed for chronic pain, including to patients with HIV (PWH). There is growing concern regarding gabapentin's potential for harm, particularly in combination with opioids. Among PWH, we examined factors associated with higher doses of gabapentin receipt and determined if receipt varied by opioid use. We examined data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a national prospective cohort including PWH, from 2002 through 2017. Covariates included prescribed opioid dose, self-reported past year opioid use, and other sociodemographic and clinical variables. We used multinomial logistic regression to determine independent predictors of gabapentin receipt. Among 3,702 PWH, 902 (24%) received any gabapentin during the study period at a mean daily dose of 1,469 mg. In the multinomial model, high-dose gabapentin receipt was associated with high-dose benzodiazepine receipt (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 95% confidence interval [CI]= 1.53, [1.03-2.27]), pain interference (1.65 [1.39-1.95]), and hand or foot pain (1.81, [1.45-2.26]). High-dose gabapentin receipt was associated with prescribed high-dose opioids receipt (2.66 [1.95-3.62]) but not self-reported opioid use (1.03 [0.89-1.21]). PWH prescribed gabapentin at higher doses are more likely to receive high-dose opioids and high-dose benzodiazepines, raising safety concerns.

Aging-Related Concerns of People Living with HIV Referred for Geriatric Consultation

PURPOSE

People with HIV (PWH) are living longer lives and likely experiencing accentuated aging. Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been proposed as a way to identify and help meet each individual patient's needs.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of the results of CGA in an HIV clinic in New York City. CGA included assessment of basic and instrumental activities of daily living, screens for depression, anxiety, frailty, cognition, and quality of life, along with general discussion of concerns and goals. We compared the group of PWH referred for CGA to those of comparable age who were not referred to determine the factors that were associated with referral. We carried out a descriptive analysis of those undergoing CGA, along with regression to determine factors associated with poorer PHQ-2 depression scores and higher VACS score.

RESULTS

A total of 105 patients underwent full CGA during the study period. Mean age of referred patients was 66.5 years, ranging from 50 to 84 years (SD 7.99). More than 92% were virally suppressed. Compared with their non-referred counterparts over 50, referred patients were older and had more functional comorbidities like cerebrovascular disease, neuropathy, and urinary incontinence. More than half complained of fatigue, and 2/3 noted poor memory. Almost 60% were frail or prefrail. Ninety patients were asked about their goals, and the most commonly cited were related to health or finances; fifteen patients were unable to articulate any goals. Having fewer goals and noting weight loss or fatigue were predictive of higher scores on the PHQ-2 depression screen.

CONCLUSION

Although most older PWH undergoing CGA can manage their ADL, many have concerns and deficits beyond their comorbidities. CGA offers an important window into the psychosocial concerns and needs of older PWH.

Long-Term Outcomes of Patients With Cocaine Use Disorder: A 18-years Addiction Cohort Study

Objective: Cocaine Use Disorder (CUD) has been associated with multiple complications and premature death. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the relationship between baseline medical comorbidity and long-term medical outcomes (i.e., hospitalization, death) in a cohort of patients primarily admitted for detoxification. In addition, we aimed to analyze cause-specific mortality.

Methods: longitudinal study in CUD patients admitted for detoxification between 2001 and 2018. Substance use characteristics, laboratory parameters and medical comorbidity by VACS Index were assessed at admission. Follow-up and health-related outcomes were ascertained through visits and e-health records. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to analyze survival and predictors of hospitalization and death.

Results: 175 patients (77.7% men) were included. Age at admission was 35 years [IQR: 30–41 years], 59.4% of the patients being intranasal users, 33.5% injectors, and 7.1% smokers. Almost 23% of patients had concomitant alcohol use disorder, 39% were cannabis users and 9% opiate users. The median VACS Index score on admission was 10 points [IQR: 0–22]. After 12 years [IQR: 8.6–15 years] of follow-up there were 1,292 (80.7%) ED admissions and 308 (19.3%) hospitalizations. The incidence rate of ED admission and hospitalization was 18.6 × 100 p-y (95% CI: 15.8–21.8 × 100 p-y). Mortality rate was 1.4 × 100 p-y (95% CI: 0.9–2.0 × 100 p-y) and, baseline comorbidity predicted hospitalization and mortality: those with VACS Index >40 were 3.5 times (HR:3.52, 95% CI: 1.19–10.4) more likely to dye with respect to patients with VACS < 20.

Conclusion: addiction care warrants optimal stratification of medical comorbidity to improve health outcomes and survival of CUD patients seeking treatment of the disorder.

Machine learning prediction of neurocognitive impairment among people with HIV using clinical and multimodal magnetic resonance imaging data

Diagnosis of HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment (NCI) continues to be a clinical challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for NCI among people with HIV using clinical- and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived features. The sample included 101 adults with chronic HIV disease. NCI was determined using a standardized neuropsychological testing battery comprised of seven domains. MRI features included gray matter volume from high-resolution anatomical scans and white matter integrity from diffusion-weighted imaging. Clinical features included demographics, substance use, and routine laboratory tests. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Logistic regression was used to perform variable selection on MRI features. These features were subsequently used to train a support vector machine (SVM) to predict NCI. Three different classification tasks were performed: one used only clinical features; a second used only selected MRI features; a third used both clinical and selected MRI features. Model performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity with a tenfold cross-validation. The SVM classifier that combined selected MRI with clinical features outperformed the model using clinical features or MRI features alone (AUC: 0.83 vs. 0.62 vs. 0.79; accuracy: 0.80 vs. 0.65 vs. 0.72; sensitivity: 0.86 vs. 0.85 vs. 0.86; specificity: 0.71 vs. 0.37 vs. 0.52). Our results provide preliminary evidence that combining clinical and MRI features can increase accuracy in predicting NCI and could be developed as a potential tool for NCI diagnosis in HIV clinical practice.

Impact of behavioral and medication treatment for alcohol use disorder on changes in HIV-related outcomes among patients with HIV: A longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

For people with HIV (PWH) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) who initiated behavioral treatment (BAUD) we: 1) describe BAUD intensity and medication (MAUD); and 2) examine whether BAUD and MAUD were associated with changes in HIV-related outcomes (CD4 cell count, HIV-1 viral load [VL], VACS Index score 2.0, and antiretroviral [ARV] adherence) from before to one year after treatment initiation.

METHODS

We used Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) data to describe BAUD intensity and MAUD (acamprosate, disulfiram, and naltrexone, gabapentin or topiramate). Linear regression models estimated changes in outcomes and included BAUD, MAUD, age and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

We identified 7830 PWH who initiated BAUD from 01/2008-09/2017. Median age was 53, 60% were African-American and 28% white. BAUD intensity groups were: 1) Single Visit - 35%; 2) Minimal - 44% recieved ∼2 visits during first month; 3) Sustained Moderate - 17% recieved ∼8 visits/month initially; and 4) Intensive - 4% started out receiving ∼14-16 visits/month. Only 9% recieved MAUD, the majority of which was gabapentin. Among those with detectable VL: all HIV-related outcomes improved more among those with more intensive BAUD. Among those with undetectable VL: adherence improved more among those with greater BAUD intensity. MAUD was associated with increased CD4 among those with detectable VL and with improved adherence among both groups.

CONCLUSION

Of those with >1 BAUD visit, only 21% received at least moderate BAUD and 9% received at least 6 months of MAUD. Increasing AUD treatment intensity may improve HIV-related outcomes, especially among those with detectable VL.

Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Clinical scores to determine early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality risk have not been developed for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to 70% of people living with HIV. In the absence of validated scores, WHO eligibility criteria (EC) for ART care intensification are CD4 < 200/μL or WHO stage III/IV.

METHODS

We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult ART enrollees to develop CD4-independent and CD4-dependent multivariable prognostic models for 6-month mortality. Scores were derived by rescaling coefficients. Scores were developed using the first 50% of XPRES ART enrollees, and their accuracy validated internally and externally using South African TB Fast Track (TBFT) trial data. Predictive accuracy was compared between scores and WHO EC.

RESULTS

Among 5553 XPRES enrollees, 2838 were included in the derivation dataset; 68% were female and 83 (3%) died by 6 months. Among 1077 TBFT ART enrollees, 55% were female and 6% died by 6 months. Factors predictive of 6-month mortality in the derivation dataset at p < 0.01 and selected for the CD4-independent score included male gender (2 points), ≥ 1 WHO tuberculosis symptom (2 points), WHO stage III/IV (2 points), severe anemia (hemoglobin < 8 g/dL) (3 points), and temperature > 37.5 °C (2 points). The same variables plus CD4 < 200/μL (1 point) were included in the CD4-dependent score. Among XPRES enrollees, a CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 86% sensitivity and 66% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 83% sensitivity and 58% specificity. If WHO stage alone was used, sensitivity was 48% and specificity 89%. Among TBFT enrollees, the CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 95% sensitivity and 27% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 100% sensitivity but 0% specificity. Accuracy was similar between CD4-independent and CD4-dependent scores. Categorizing CD4-independent scores into low (< 4), moderate (4-6), and high risk (≥ 7) gave 6-month mortality of 1%, 4%, and 17% for XPRES and 1%, 5%, and 30% for TBFT enrollees.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivity of the CD4-independent score was nearly twice that of WHO stage in predicting 6-month mortality and could be used in settings lacking CD4 testing to inform ART care intensification. The CD4-dependent score improved specificity versus WHO EC. Both scores should be considered for scale-up in SSA.

Working with HIV clinics to adopt addiction treatment using implementation facilitation (WHAT-IF?): Rationale and design for a hybrid type 3 effectiveness-implementation study

BACKGROUND

Tobacco, alcohol and opioid misuse are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality among people with HIV (PWH). Despite existence of evidence-based counseling and medications for addiction, these treatments are infrequently offered in HIV clinics. The Working with HIV clinics to adopt Addiction Treatment using Implementation Facilitation (WHAT-IF?) study was conducted to address this implementation challenge. The study's goals were to conduct a formative evaluation of barriers to and facilitators of implementing addiction treatment for PWH followed by an evaluation of the impact of Implementation Facilitation (IF) on promoting adoption of addiction treatments and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

The study was conducted at four HIV clinics in the northeast United States, using a hybrid type 3 effectiveness-implementation stepped wedge design and guided by the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services Research (PARiHS) framework. A mixed-methods approach was used to identify evidence, context, and facilitation-related barriers to and facilitators of integration of addiction treatments into HIV clinics and to help tailor IF for each clinic. An evaluation was then conducted of the impact of IF on implementation outcomes, including provision of addiction treatment (primary outcome), organizational and clinician and staff readiness to adopt addiction treatment, and changes in organizational models of care used to deliver addiction treatment. The evaluation also included IF's impact on effectiveness outcomes, specifically HIV-related outcomes among patients eligible for addiction treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Results will generate important information regarding the impact of IF as a reproducible strategy to promote addiction treatment in HIV clinics.

All-cause mortality among males living with and without HIV initiating long-term opioid therapy, and its association with opioid dose, opioid interruption and other factors

BACKGROUND

While the relationship between long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) dose and overdose is well-established, LTOT's association with all-cause mortality is less understood, especially among people living with HIV (PLWH). There is also limited information regarding the association of LTOT cessation or interruption with mortality.

METHODS

Among PLWH and matched uninfected male veterans in care, we identified those who initiated LTOT. Using time-updated cox regression, we examined the association between all-cause mortality, unnatural death, and overdose, and opioid use categorized as 1-20 (reference group), 21-50, 51-90, and ≥ 91 mg morphine equivalent daily dose (MEDD).

RESULTS

There were 22,996 patients on LTOT, 6,578 (29 %) PLWH and 16,418 (71 %) uninfected. Among 5,222 (23 %) deaths, 12 % were unnatural deaths and 6 % overdoses. MEDD was associated with risk of all 3 outcomes; compared to patients on 1-20 mg MEDD, adjusted risk for all-cause mortality monotonically increased (Hazard Ratios (HR) [95 % CI] for 21-50 mg MEDD = 1.36 [1.21, 1.52], 51-90 mg MEDD = 2.06 [1.82, 2.35], and ≥ 91 mg MEDD = 3.03 [2.71, 3.39]). Similar results were seen in models stratified by HIV. LTOT interruption was also associated with all-cause, unnatural, and overdose mortality (HR [95 % CI] 2.30 [2.09, 2.53], 1.47 [1.13, 1.91] and 1.52 [1.04, 2.23], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Among PLWH and uninfected patients on LTOT we observed a strong dose-response relationship with all 3 mortality outcomes. Opioid risk mitigation approaches should be expanded to address the potential effects of higher dose on all-cause mortality in addition to unnatural and overdose fatalities.

Strengths and Limitations of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index as a Measure of Physiologic Frailty

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index (VACS Index) is an index comprised of routine clinical laboratory tests that accurately and generalizably predicts all-cause mortality among those living with and without HIV infection. Increasing evidence supports its use as a measure of physiologic frailty among those aging with HIV because of its associations with frailty related outcomes including mortality, hospitalization, fragility fractures, serious falls, pneumonia, cognitive decline, delirium, and functional decline. In this review, we explore the evidence supporting the validity (construct, correlative, and predictive), responsiveness, and feasibility of the VACS Index as an early indicator of physiologic frailty. We also consider its limitations.