Genetic change for earlier migration timing in a pink salmon population

Salmon hatchery strays can demographically boost wild populations at the cost of diversity: quantitative genetic modelling of Alaska pink salmon

Hatcheries are vital to many salmon fisheries, with inherent risks and rewards. While hatcheries can increase the returns of adult fish, the demographic and evolutionary consequences for natural populations interacting with hatchery fish on spawning grounds remain unclear. This study examined the impacts of stray hatchery-origin pink salmon on natural population productivity and resilience. We explored temporal assortative mating dynamics using a quantitative genetic model that assumed the only difference between hatchery- and natural-origin adults was their return timing to natural spawning grounds. This model was parameterized with empirical data from an intensive multi-generational study of hatchery-wild interactions in the world's largest pink salmon fisheries enhancement program located in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Across scenarios of increasing hatchery fish presence on spawning grounds, our findings underscore a trade-off between demographic enhancement and preservation of natural population diversity. While enhancement bolstered natural population sizes towards local carrying capacities, hatchery introgression reduced variation in adult return timing by up to 20%. Results indicated that hatchery-origin alleles can rapidly assimilate into natural populations, despite the reduced fitness of hatchery fish attributable to phenotypic mismatches. These findings elucidate the potential for long-term demographic and evolutionary consequences arising from specific hatchery-wild interactions, emphasizing the need for management strategies that balance demographic enhancement with the conservation of natural diversity.

Mapping seasonal migration in a songbird hybrid zone -- heritability, genetic correlations, and genomic patterns linked to speciation

Seasonal migration is a widespread behavior relevant for adaptation and speciation, yet knowledge of its genetic basis is limited. We leveraged advances in tracking and sequencing technologies to bridge this gap in a well-characterized hybrid zone between songbirds that differ in migratory behavior. Migration requires the coordinated action of many traits, including orientation, timing, and wing morphology. We used genetic mapping to show these traits are highly heritable and genetically correlated, explaining how migration has evolved so rapidly in the past and suggesting future responses to climate change may be possible. Many of these traits mapped to the same genomic regions and small structural variants indicating the same, or tightly linked, genes underlie them. Analyses integrating transcriptomic data indicate cholinergic receptors could control multiple traits. Furthermore, analyses integrating genomic differentiation further suggested genes underlying migratory traits help maintain reproductive isolation in this hybrid zone.

Experimental evidence for adaptive divergence in response to a warmed habitat reveals roles for morphology, allometry and parasite resistance

Ectotherms are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change-driven increases in temperature. Understanding how populations adapt to novel thermal environments will be key for informing mitigation plans. We took advantage of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations inhabiting adjacent geothermal (warm) and ambient (cold) habitats to test for adaptive evolutionary divergence using a field reciprocal transplant experiment. We found evidence for adaptive morphological divergence, as growth (length change) in non-native habitats related to head, posterior and total body shape. Higher growth in fish transplanted to a non-native habitat was associated with morphological shape closer to native fish. The consequences of transplantation were asymmetric with cold sourced fish transplanted to the warm habitat suffering from lower survival rates and greater parasite prevalence than warm sourced fish transplanted to the cold habitat. We also found divergent shape allometries that related to growth. Our findings suggest that wild populations can adapt quickly to thermal conditions, but immediate transitions to warmer conditions may be particularly difficult.

Climate change effects on the distribution of yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826))

The magnitude of recent climatic changes has no historical precedent and impacts biodiversity. Climatic changes may displace suitable habitats (areas with suitable climates), leading to global biodiversity decline. Primates are among the most affected groups. Most primates depend on forests and contribute to their maintenance. We evaluated the potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Sapajus xanthosternos, a critically endangered primate whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes. We evaluated changes between baseline (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates using multivariate analysis. Then, we compared current and future (2100) climatic suitability projections for the species. The climatic changes predicted throughout the S. xanthosternos range differed mostly longitudinally, with higher temperature increases in the west and higher precipitation reductions in the east. Climatic suitability for S. xanthosternos is predicted to decline in the future. Areas with highest current climatic suitability occur as a narrow strip in the eastern part of the geographic range throughout the latitudinal range. In the future, areas with highest values are projected to be located as an even narrower strip in the eastern part of the geographical range. A small portion of forest remnants larger than 150 ha located in the east has larger current and future suitability values. At this large scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the climate effects reinforce the importance of maintenance of current populations in different areas of the range. The possibility that phenotypic plasticity helps primates cope with reduced climatic suitability may be mediated by habitat availability, quality, and connectivity.

Two common, often coexisting grassland plant species differ in their evolutionary potential in response to experimental drought

For terrestrial plant communities, the increase in frequency and intensity of drought events is considered as one of the most severe consequences of climate change. While single-species studies demonstrate that drought can lead to relatively rapid adaptive genetic changes, the evolutionary potential and constraints to selection need to be assessed in comparative approaches to draw more general conclusions. In a greenhouse experiment, we compare the phenotypic response and evolutionary potential of two co-occurring grassland plant species, Bromus erectus and Trifolium pratense, in two environments differing in water availability. We quantified variation in functional traits and reproductive fitness in response to drought and compared multivariate genetic variance-covariance matrices and predicted evolutionary responses between species. Species showed different drought adaptation strategies, reflected in both their species-specific phenotypic plasticity and predicted responses to selection indicating contrasting evolutionary potential under drought. In T. pratense we found evidence for stronger genetic constraints under drought compared to more favourable conditions, and for some traits plastic and predicted evolutionary responses to drought had opposing directions, likely limiting the potential for adaptive change. Our study contributes to a more detailed understanding of the evolutionary potential of species with different adaptive strategies in response to climate change and may help to inform future scenarios for semi-natural grassland ecosystems.

Low genetic diversity, local-scale structure, and distinct genetic integrity of Korean chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) at the species range margin suggest a priority for conservation efforts

Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) is an ecologically and economically important species widely distributed across the North Pacific Ocean. However, the population size of this fishery resource has declined globally. Identifying genetic integrity, diversity and structure, and phylogenetic relationships of wild populations of O. keta over an entire species' range is central for developing its effective conservation and management plans. Nevertheless, chum salmon from the Korean Peninsula, which are comprised of its southwestern range margins, have been overlooked. By using mtDNA control region and 10 microsatellite loci, we here assessed the genetic diversity and structure for 16 populations, including 10 wild and six hatchery populations, encompassing the species entire geographic range in South Korea. The analyses showed that genetic diversity is significantly higher for wild than for hatchery populations. Both marker sets revealed significant genetic differentiation between some local populations. Comparisons of six wild and their respective hatchery populations indicated that allele/haplotype frequencies considerably differ, perhaps due to a strong founder effect and/or homogenizing of hatchery populations for stocking practice. Despite its single admixed gene pool for the Korean chum salmon, some local populations housing their own unique lineages should be accorded with a high priority to safeguard their genetic integrities. The results of our comparative analyses of the Korean population with other North Pacific chum salmons (inhabiting regions of Japan, Russia, and North America) revealed a lower diversity but higher contribution to the overall species-level genetic diversity, and also its unique genetic integrity. These findings advocate for the evolutionary significance of the Korean population for species-level conservation.

Relationship between salmon egg subsidy and the distribution of an avian predator

As a spatial subsidy, which is the phenomenon of transferring resources from a donor system to a recipient system, anadromous salmonids contribute to the supply of marine-derived nutrients to freshwater and terrestrial systems. Live salmon and salmon carcasses and eggs are utilized by various organisms and affect their abundance and distribution. However, the evaluation of the effect of salmon subsidies on the abundance and distribution of terrestrial animals is biased toward predators or scavengers that utilize spawning adults and carcasses, and few studies have focused on the effect of salmon eggs as a subsidy. To avoid underestimating the function of salmon subsidies, the response to the availability of salmon eggs in various systems should be investigated. Here, we investigated the abundance and feeding behavior of the brown dipper Cinclus pallasii, as a consumer of salmon eggs, based on the hypothesis that the availability of salmon eggs affects the diet composition and stream distribution of this small predator. In addition, to test whether changes in the abundance of brown dippers are determined by salmon spawning, their abundance was compared upstream and downstream of the check dams in three streams during the peak spawning period. Brown dippers used salmon eggs during the spawning season (53.7% of diet composition), and their abundance increased as the number of spawning redds increased. In contrast, this pattern was not observed upstream of the check dam. These results suggested that the abundance and stream distribution of brown dippers vary according to the variation in the spatiotemporal availability of salmon eggs.

Phenotypic plasticity drives phenological changes in a Mediterranean blue tit population

Earlier phenology induced by climate change, such as the passerines' breeding time, is observed in many natural populations. Understanding the nature of such changes is key to predict the responses of wild populations to climate change. Genetic changes have been rarely investigated for laying date, though it has been shown to be heritable and under directional selection, suggesting that the trait could evolve. In a Corsican blue tit population, the birds' laying date has significantly advanced over 40 years, and we here determine whether this response is of plastic or evolutionary origin, by comparing the predictions of the breeder's and the Robertson-Price (STS) equations, to the observed genetic changes. We compare the results obtained for two fitness proxies (fledgling and recruitment success), using models accounting for their zero inflation. Because the trait appears heritable and under directional selection, the breeder's equation predicts that genetic changes could drive a significant part of the phenological change observed. We, however, found that fitness proxies and laying date are not genetically correlated. The STS, therefore, predicts no evolution of the breeding time, predicting correctly the absence of trend in breeding values. Our results also emphasize that when investigating selection on a plastic trait under fluctuating selection, part of the fitness-trait phenotypic covariance can be due to within individual covariance. In the case of repeated measurements, splitting within and between individual covariance can shift our perspective on the actual intensity of selection over multiple selection episodes, shedding light on the potential for the trait to evolve.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Geographical and environmental contributions to genomic divergence in mangrove forests

Assessing the relative importance of geographical and environmental factors to the spatial distribution of genetic variation can provide information about the processes that maintain genetic variation in natural populations. With a globally wide but very restricted habitat distribution, mangrove trees are a useful model for studies aiming to understand the contributions of these factors. Mangroves occur along the continent–ocean interface of tropical and subtropical latitudes, regions considered inhospitable to many other types of plants. Here, we used landscape genomics approaches to investigate the relative contributions of geographical and environmental variables to the genetic variation of two black mangrove species, Avicennia schaueriana and Avicennia germinans, along the South American coast. Using single nucleotide polymorphisms, our results revealed an important role of ocean currents and geographical distance in the gene flow of A. schaueriana and an isolation-by-environment pattern in the organization of the genetic diversity of A. germinans. Additionally, for A. germinans, we observed significant correlations between genetic variation with evidence of selection and the influence of precipitation regimens, solar radiation and temperature patterns. These discoveries expand our knowledge about the evolution of mangrove trees and provide important information to predict future responses of coastal species to the expected global changes during this century.

Lack of phenological shift leads to increased camouflage mismatch in mountain hares

Understanding whether organisms will be able to adapt to human-induced stressors currently endangering their existence is an urgent priority. Globally, multiple species moult from a dark summer to white winter coat to maintain camouflage against snowy landscapes. Decreasing snow cover duration owing to climate change is increasing mismatch in seasonal camouflage. To directly test for adaptive responses to recent changes in snow cover, we repeated historical (1950s) field studies of moult phenology in mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in Scotland. We found little evidence that population moult phenology has shifted to align seasonal coat colour with shorter snow seasons, or that phenotypic plasticity prevented increases in camouflage mismatch. The lack of responses resulted in 35 additional days of mismatch between 1950 and 2016. We emphasize the potential role of weak directional selection pressure and low genetic variability in shaping the scope for adaptive responses to anthropogenic stressors.

Validation and association of candidate markers for adult migration timing and fitness in Chinook Salmon

Recent studies have begun to elucidate the genetic basis for phenotypic traits in salmonid species, but many questions remain before these candidate genes can be directly incorporated into conservation management. In Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a region of major effect for migration timing has been discovered that harbors two adjacent candidate genes (greb1L, rock1), but there has been limited work to examine the association between these genes and migratory phenotypes at the individual, compared to the population, level. To provide a more thorough test of individual phenotypic association within lineages of Chinook Salmon, 33 candidate markers were developed across a 220 Kb region on chromosome 28 previously associated with migration timing. Candidate and neutral markers were genotyped in individuals from representative collections that exhibit phenotypic variation in timing of arrival to spawning grounds from each of three lineages of Chinook Salmon. Association tests confirmed the majority of markers on chromosome 28 were significantly associated with arrival timing and the strongest association was consistently observed for markers within the rock1 gene and the intergenic region between greb1L and rock1. Candidate markers alone explained a wide range of phenotypic variation for Lower Columbia and Interior ocean-type lineages (29% and 78%, respectively), but less for the Interior stream-type lineage (5%). Individuals that were heterozygous at markers within or upstream of rock1 had phenotypes that suggested a pattern of dominant inheritance for early arrival across populations. Finally, previously published fitness estimates from the Interior stream-type lineage enabled tests of association with arrival timing and two candidate markers, which revealed that fish with homozygous mature genotypes had slightly higher fitness than fish with premature genotypes, while heterozygous fish were intermediate. Overall, these results provide additional information for individual-level genetic variation associated with arrival timing that may assist with conservation management of this species.

Maladaptive migration behaviour in hybrids links to predator-mediated ecological selection

Different migratory species have evolved distinct migratory characteristics that improve fitness in their particular ecological niches. However, when such species hybridize, migratory traits from parental species can combine maladaptively and cause hybrids to fall between parental fitness peaks, with potential consequences for hybrid viability and species integrity.

Here, we take advantage of a natural cross‐breeding incident to study migratory behaviour in naturally occurring hybrids as well as in their parental species and explore links between migratory traits and predation risk.

To achieve this, we used electronic tags and passive telemetry to record detailed individual migration patterns (timing and number of migratory trips) in two common freshwater fish species, roach Rutilus rutilus, common bream Abramis brama as well as their hybrids. Next, we scanned for tags regurgitated by a key avian predator (great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo) at nearby roosting sites, allowing us to directly link migratory behaviour to predation risk in the wild.

We found that hybrid individuals showed a higher number of short, multi‐trip movements between lake and stream habitats as compared to both parental species. The mean date of first lake departure differed between bream and roach by more than 10 days, while hybrids departed in two distinct peaks that overlapped with the parental species' averages. Moreover, the probability of cormorant predation increased with multi‐trip movement frequency across species and was higher for hybrids.

Our data provide novel insights into hybrid viability, with links to predator‐mediated ecological selection. Increased exposure to predators via maladaptive migratory behaviour reduces hybrid survival and can thereby reinforce species integrity.

Transforming ecology and conservation biology through genome editing

As the conservation challenges increase, new approaches are needed to help combat losses in biodiversity and slow or reverse the decline of threatened species. Genome-editing technology is changing the face of modern biology, facilitating applications that were unimaginable only a decade ago. The technology has the potential to make significant contributions to the fields of evolutionary biology, ecology, and conservation, yet the fear of unintended consequences from designer ecosystems containing engineered organisms has stifled innovation. To overcome this gap in the understanding of what genome editing is and what its capabilities are, more research is needed to translate genome-editing discoveries into tools for ecological research. Emerging and future genome-editing technologies include new clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) targeted sequencing and nucleic acid detection approaches as well as species genetic barcoding and somatic genome-editing technologies. These genome-editing tools have the potential to transform the environmental sciences by providing new noninvasive methods for monitoring threatened species or for enhancing critical adaptive traits. A pioneering effort by the conservation community is required to apply these technologies to real-world conservation problems.

Conservation Genomics in a Changing Arctic

Although logistically challenging to study, the Arctic is a bellwether for global change and is becoming a model for questions pertinent to the persistence of biodiversity. Disruption of Arctic ecosystems is accelerating, with impacts ranging from mixing of biotic communities to individual behavioral responses. Understanding these changes is crucial for conservation and sustainable economic development. Genomic approaches are providing transformative insights into biotic responses to environmental change, but have seen limited application in the Arctic due to a series of limitations. To meet the promise of genome analyses, we urge rigorous development of biorepositories from high latitudes to provide essential libraries to improve the conservation, monitoring, and management of Arctic ecosystems through genomic approaches.

Independent lineages in a common environment: the roles of determinism and contingency in shaping the migration timing of even- versus odd-year pink salmon over broad spatial and temporal scales

Studies of parallel evolution are seldom able to disentangle the influence of cryptic environmental variation from that of evolutionary history; whereas the unique life history of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) presents an opportunity to do so. All pink salmon mature at age two and die after breeding. Hence, pink salmon bred in even years are completely reproductively isolated from those bred in odd years, even if the two lineages bred in same location. We used time series (mean = 7 years, maximum = 74 years) of paired even- and odd-year populations from 36 rivers spanning over 2000 km to explore parallelism in migration timing, a trait with a strong genetic basis. Migration timing was highly parallel, being determined almost entirely by local environmental differences among rivers. Interestingly, interannual changes in migration timing different somewhat between lineages. Overall, our findings indicate very strong determinism, with only a minor contribution of contingency.

Changes in gene and genotype frequencies during the development of the grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella

In this study, a full-sib population of Ctenopharyngodon idella was constructed and approximately 500 C. idella individuals were sampled at four early developmental stages (hatching, first feeding, juvenile fish and young fish). Four DNA pools were constructed and subjected to next-generation sequencing. On the basis of the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP), changes in gene and genotype frequencies during the developmental progress of C. idella were revealed, which indicates that death during the early developmental stage is not a random process. These findings will establish the basis for further studies performed for identifying superior alleles or genotypes as target markers for molecular breeding.

Adaptation, speciation and extinction in the Anthropocene

Humans have dramatically altered the planet over the course of a century, from the acidity of our oceans to the fragmentation of our landscapes and the temperature of our climate. Species find themselves in novel environments, within communities assembled from never before encountered mixtures of invasives and natives. The speed with which the biotic and abiotic environment of species has changed has already altered the evolutionary trajectory of species, a trend that promises to escalate. In this article, I reflect upon this altered course of evolution. Human activities have reshaped selection pressures, favouring individuals that better survive in our built landscapes, that avoid our hunting and fishing, and that best tolerate the species that we have introduced. Human-altered selection pressures have also modified how organisms live and move through the landscape, and even the nature of reproduction and genome structure. Humans are also shaping selection pressures at the species level, and I discuss how species traits are affecting both extinction and speciation rates in the Anthropocene.

Egg incubation temperature affects the timing of the Atlantic salmon Salmo salar homing migration

Here, we show that adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar returned about 2 weeks later from the feeding areas in the North Atlantic Ocean to the Norwegian coast, through a phenotypically plastic mechanism, when they developed as embryos in c. 3°C warmer water than the regular incubation temperature. This finding has relevance to changes in migration timing caused by climate change and for cultivation and release of S. salar.

Genomic signatures of environmental selection despite near-panmixia in summer flounder

Rapid environmental change is altering the selective pressures experienced by marine species. While adaptation to local environmental conditions depends on a balance between dispersal and natural selection across the seascape, the spatial scale of adaptation and the relative importance of mechanisms maintaining adaptation in the ocean are not well understood. Here, using population assignment tests, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), and genome scans with double-digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing data, we evaluated population structure and locus-environment associations in a commercially important species, summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), along the U.S. east coast. Based on 1,137 single nucleotide polymorphisms across 232 individuals spanning nearly 1,900 km, we found no indication of population structure across Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (F ST = 0.0014) or of isolation by distance along the coast using individual relatedness. ABC estimated the probability of dispersal across the biogeographic break at Cape Hatteras to be high (95% credible interval: 7%-50% migration). However, we found 15 loci whose allele frequencies were associated with at least one of four environmental variables. Of those, 11 were correlated with bottom temperature. For summer flounder, our results suggest continued fisheries management as a single population and identify likely response mechanisms to climate change. Broadly speaking, our findings suggest that spatial balancing selection can manifest in adaptive divergence on regional scales in marine fish despite high dispersal, and that these conditions likely result in the widespread distribution of adaptive alleles and a high potential for future genetic adaptation in response to changing environmental conditions. In the context of a rapidly changing world, a landscape genomics perspective offers a useful approach for understanding the causes and consequences of genetic differentiation.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change.

A population of snow voles provides a rare example of contemporary adaptive evolution in the wild, but without a quantitative genetic perspective this genetic change, and the selective pressure that underlies it, would have gone undetected.

Biologists struggle to demonstrate adaptive evolution in wild populations: while they routinely observe natural selection on heritable traits, in only a handful of cases could they demonstrate an evolutionary response. Although various explanations for this paradox have been proposed, comprehensive empirical tests are lacking. Over the past years, we have therefore studied an alpine population of snow voles. Following all individuals throughout their lives, we found that body mass is heritable and that heavy voles have a higher fitness. Nevertheless, mean body mass did not increase. To resolve this, we disentangled the role of genes and the environment in shaping body mass. This revealed that the population did evolve, but that this was masked by environmental variation. Furthermore, although the genetic change was adaptive, it was opposite to our initial expectation: the population evolved to become lighter, not heavier. This was because although heavy voles have the highest fitness, their mass does not cause high fitness. Instead, it is the voles with the genes for being light that do best, especially when the first winter snow arrives early. This shows that populations can evolve rapidly, but that without a genetic perspective, this, and its underlying mechanism, may go undetected.

Swept away: ocean currents and seascape features influence genetic structure across the 18,000 Km Indo-Pacific distribution of a marine invertebrate, the black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera

BACKGROUND

Genetic structure in many widely-distributed broadcast spawning marine invertebrates remains poorly understood, posing substantial challenges for their fishery management, conservation and aquaculture. Under the Core-Periphery Hypothesis (CPH), genetic diversity is expected to be highest at the centre of a species' distribution, progressively decreasing with increased differentiation towards outer range limits, as populations become increasingly isolated, fragmented and locally adapted. The unique life history characteristics of many marine invertebrates such as high dispersal rates, stochastic survival and variable recruitment are also likely to influence how populations are organised. To examine the microevolutionary forces influencing population structure, connectivity and adaptive variation in a highly-dispersive bivalve, populations of the black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera were examined across its ~18,000 km Indo-Pacific distribution.

RESULTS

Analyses utilising 9,624 genome-wide SNPs and 580 oysters, discovered differing patterns of significant and substantial broad-scale genetic structure between the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. Indian Ocean populations were markedly divergent (F st = 0.2534-0.4177, p < 0.001), compared to Pacific Ocean oysters, where basin-wide gene flow was much higher (F st = 0.0007-0.1090, p < 0.001). Partitioning of genetic diversity (hierarchical AMOVA) attributed 18.1% of variance between ocean basins, whereas greater proportions were resolved within samples and populations (45.8% and 35.7% respectively). Visualisation of population structure at selectively neutral loci resolved three and five discrete genetic clusters for the Indian and Pacific Oceans respectively. Evaluation of genetic structure at adaptive loci for Pacific populations (89 SNPs under directional selection; F st = 0.1012-0.4371, FDR = 0.05), revealed five clusters identical to those detected at neutral SNPs, suggesting environmental heterogeneity within the Pacific. Patterns of structure and connectivity were supported by Mantel tests of isolation by distance (IBD) and independent hydrodynamic particle dispersal simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

It is evident that genetic structure and connectivity across the natural range of P. margaritifera is highly complex, and produced by the interaction of ocean currents, IBD and seascape features at a broad scale, together with habitat geomorphology and local adaptation at regional levels. Overall population organisation is far more elaborate than generalised CPH predictions, however valuable insights for regional fishery management, and a greater understanding of range-wide genetic structure in a highly-dispersive marine invertebrate have been gained.

A Parallel Population Genomic and Hydrodynamic Approach to Fishery Management of Highly-Dispersive Marine Invertebrates: The Case of the Fijian Black-Lip Pearl Oyster Pinctada margaritifera

Fishery management and conservation of marine species increasingly relies on genetic data to delineate biologically relevant stock boundaries. Unfortunately for high gene flow species which may display low, but statistically significant population structure, there is no clear consensus on the level of differentiation required to resolve distinct stocks. The use of fine-scale neutral and adaptive variation, considered together with environmental data can offer additional insights to this problem. Genome-wide genetic data (4,123 SNPs), together with an independent hydrodynamic particle dispersal model were used to inform farm and fishery management in the Fijian black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera, where comprehensive fishery management is lacking, and the sustainability of exploitation uncertain. Weak fine-scale patterns of population structure were detected, indicative of broad-scale panmixia among wild oysters, while a hatchery-sourced farmed population exhibited a higher degree of genetic divergence (Fst = 0.0850-0.102). This hatchery-produced population had also experienced a bottleneck (NeLD = 5.1; 95% C.I. = [5.1-5.3]); compared to infinite NeLD estimates for all wild oysters. Simulation of larval transport pathways confirmed the existence of broad-scale mixture by surface ocean currents, correlating well with fine-scale patterns of population structuring. Fst outlier tests failed to detect large numbers of loci supportive of selection, with 2-5 directional outlier SNPs identified (average Fst = 0.116). The lack of biologically significant population genetic structure, absence of evidence for local adaptation and larval dispersal simulation, all indicate the existence of a single genetic stock of P. margaritifera in the Fiji Islands. This approach using independent genomic and oceanographic tools has allowed fundamental insights into stock structure in this species, with transferability to other highly-dispersive marine taxa for their conservation and management.

Unravelling the effects of gene flow and selection in highly connected populations of the silver-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada maxima)

Many marine organisms often display weak levels of population genetic structuring as a result of both environmental characteristics (e.g., ocean currents) and life history traits (e.g., widely dispersed planktonic larval stages) maintaining high levels of gene flow. This can lead to the assumption that these organisms can be managed as a single stock based on high levels of population connectivity. However, this neglects to account for other micro-evolutionary forces such as selection, which also shape these populations. This study utilizes 1130 genome-wide SNP loci to unravel the effects of gene flow and selection shaping three highly connected populations of the silver-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada maxima) in the ecologically and economically important Indo-Pacific region (Aru, Bali, and West Papua). Twenty-two loci under directional selection were identified amongst the populations, providing further supporting evidence of strong local adaptation (i.e., G×E effects) among populations in this region. Global Fst values for directional outliers (0.348) were up to eight times greater than for neutral markers (0.043). Pairwise Fst comparisons between Aru and Bali revealed the largest directional differences (0.488), while Bali and West Papua had the least (0.062). Unrooted neighbour-joining (NJ) distance trees and genetic diversity indices of directional outliers revealed that individuals from Bali and West Papua had reduced allelic variation (MAFavg=0.144, Ho=0.238 and MAFavg=0.232, Ho=0.369, respectively) compared to Aru (MAFavg=0.292, Ho=0.412). This indicates that directional selection is most likely acting upon genetic variation within the Bali and West Papua populations. NJ distance trees, discriminant analysis of principal components, and Fst analyses of directional outliers revealed two divergent groups ("Bali/West Papua"; "Aru") that had previously gone unrecognized. This study not only illustrates that relatively strong local adaptive forces are occurring despite high gene flow, but identifies the populations that are most likely experiencing selection. Additionally, this study highlights the need to understand all micro-evolutionary forces acting on populations when resolving stock structure.

Causes and consequences of repeatability, flexibility and individual fine-tuning of migratory timing in pike

Many organisms undertake migrations between foraging and breeding habitats and while it is assumed that reproductive timing affects fitness, little is known about the degree of individual consistency, and about the causes and consequences of individual variation in migratory timing in organisms other than birds. Here, we report on a 6-year mark-recapture study, including 2048 individuals, of breeding migration in anadromous pike (Esox lucius), an iteroparous top-predatory fish that displays homing behaviour. By repeated sampling across years at a breeding site, we first quantify individual variation both within and between breeding events and then investigate phenotypic correlates and fitness consequences of arrival timing to the breeding site. Our data demonstrate that males arrive before females, that large males arrive later than small males, that the timing of breeding migration varies among years and that individuals are consistent in their timing across years relative to other individuals in the population. Furthermore, data on return rates indicate that arrival time is under stabilizing viability selection, and that individuals who are more flexible in their timing of arrival during the first reproductive years survive longer compared with less flexible individuals. Finally, longitudinal data demonstrate that individuals consistently fine-tune their arrival timing across years, showing that the timing of arrival to breeding sites is influenced by experience. These findings represent rare evidence of how between- and within-individual variations in migratory timing across breeding events are correlated with phenotypic and fitness traits in an ecologically important keystone species. Our results emphasize the importance of considering variation in migratory timing both between and within individuals in studies investigating the fitness consequences of migratory behaviour and have implications for future management.

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4-7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = -0.77; P < 0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.

How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process-based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north-eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1-2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36-61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life-history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future.

Temporally isolated lineages of pink salmon reveal unique signatures of selection on distinct pools of standing genetic variation

A species' genetic diversity bears the marks of evolutionary processes that have occurred throughout its history. However, robust detection of selection in wild populations is difficult and often impeded by lack of replicate tests. Here, we investigate selection in pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) using genome scans coupled with inference from a haploid-assisted linkage map. Pink salmon have a strict 2-year semelparous life history which has resulted in temporally isolated (allochronic) lineages that remain sympatric through sharing of spawning habitats in alternate years. The lineages differ in a range of adaptive traits, suggesting different genetic backgrounds. We used genotyping by sequencing of haploids to generate a high-density linkage map with 7035 loci and screened an existing panel of 8036 loci for signatures of selection. The linkage map enabled identification of novel genomic regions displaying signatures of parallel selection shared between lineages. Furthermore, 24 loci demonstrated divergent selection and differences in genetic diversity between lineages, suggesting that adaptation in the 2 lineages has arisen from different pools of standing genetic variation. Findings have implications for understanding asynchronous population abundances as well as predicting future ecosystem impacts from lineage-specific responses to climate change.