Onward transmission of viruses: how do viruses emerge to cause epidemics after spillover?

Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics

Understanding virus mutations is critical for shaping public health interventions. These mutations lead to complex multi-strain dynamics often under-represented in models. Aiming to understand the factors influencing variants' fitness and evolution, we explore several scenarios of virus spreading to gain qualitative insight into the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate at the population level. To this end, we propose a two-strain stochastic model that accounts for asymptomatic transmission, mutations and the possibility of disease import. We find that variants with milder symptoms are likely to spread faster than those with severe symptoms. This is because severe variants can prompt affected individuals to seek medical help earlier, potentially leading to quicker identification and isolation of cases. However, milder or asymptomatic cases may spread more widely, making it harder to control the spread. Therefore, increased transmissibility of milder variants can still result in higher hospitalizations and fatalities due to widespread infection. The proposed model highlights the interplay between viral evolution and transmission dynamics. Offering a nuanced view of factors influencing variant spread, the model provides a foundation for further investigation into mitigating strategies and public health interventions.

Host Jump of an Exotic Fish Rhabdovirus into a New Class of Animals Poses a Disease Threat to Amphibians

Spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) is a rhabdovirus that primarily infects cyprinid finfishes and causes a disease notifiable to the World Organization for Animal Health. Amphibians, which are sympatric with cyprinids in freshwater ecosystems, are considered non-permissive hosts of rhabdoviruses. The potential host range expansion of SVCV in an atypical host species was evaluated by testing the susceptibility of amphibians native to the Pacific Northwest. Larval long-toed salamanders Ambystoma macrodactylum and Pacific tree frog Pseudacris regilla tadpoles were exposed to SVCV strains from genotypes Ia, Ib, Ic, or Id by either intraperitoneal injection, immersion, or cohabitation with virus-infected koi Cyprinus rubrofuscus. Cumulative mortality was 100% for salamanders injected with SVCV, 98-100% for tadpoles exposed to virus via immersion, and 0-100% for tadpoles cohabited with SVCV-infected koi. Many of the animals that died exhibited clinical signs of disease and SVCV RNA was found by in situ hybridization in tissue sections of immersion-exposed tadpoles, particularly in the cells of the gastrointestinal tract and liver. SVCV was also detected by plaque assay and RT-qPCR testing in both amphibian species regardless of the virus exposure method, and viable virus was detected up to 28 days after initial exposure. Recovery of infectious virus from naïve tadpoles cohabited with SVCV-infected koi further demonstrated that SVCV transmission can occur between classes of ectothermic vertebrates. Collectively, these results indicated that SVCV, a fish rhabdovirus, can be transmitted to and cause lethal disease in two amphibian species. Therefore, members of all five of the major vertebrate groups (mammals, birds, reptiles, fish, and amphibians) appear to be vulnerable to rhabdovirus infections. Future research studying potential spillover and spillback infections of aquatic rhabdoviruses between foreign and domestic amphibian and fish species will provide insights into the stressors driving novel interclass virus transmission events.

Synthesis and Characterization of Chemically and Green-Synthesized Silver Oxide Particles for Evaluation of Antiviral and Anticancer Activity

Silver oxide (Ag2O) particles are wonderful candidates due to their unique properties, and their use in a wide range of research, industrial and biomedical applications is rapidly increasing. This makes it fundamental to develop simple, environmentally friendly methods with possible scaling. Herein, sodium borohydride and Datura innoxia leaf extract were applied as chemical and biological stabilizing and reducing agents to develop Ag2O particles. The primary aim was to evaluate the anticancer and antiviral activity of Ag2O particles prepared via two methods. XRD, UV-visible and SEM analyses were used to examine the crystallite structure, optical properties and morphology, respectively. The resulting green-synthesized Ag2O particles exhibited small size, spherically agglomerated shape, and high anticancer and antiviral activities compared to chemically synthesized Ag2O particles. The MTT (3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5 diphenyltetrazolium-bromide) assay of green-synthesized Ag2O particles showed high anticancer activity against MCF-7 cells with IC50 = 17.908 µg/mL compared to chemically synthesized Ag2O particles with IC50 = 23.856 µg/mL. The antiviral activity of green-synthesized Ag2O particles and chemically synthesized Ag2O particles was also evaluated by a plaque-forming assay, and green-synthesized Ag2O particles showed higher antiviral ability with IC50 = 0.618 µg/mL as compared to chemically synthesized Ag2O particles with IC50 = 6.129 µg/mL. We propose the use of green-synthesized Ag2O particles in cancer treatment and drug delivery.

Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern

The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.

Host Barriers Limit Viral Spread in a Spillover Host: A Study of Deformed Wing Virus in the Bumblebee Bombus terrestris

The transmission of pathogens from reservoir to recipient host species, termed pathogen spillover, can profoundly impact plant, animal, and public health. However, why some pathogens lead to disease emergence in a novel species while others fail to establish or do not elicit disease is often poorly understood. There is strong evidence that deformed wing virus (DWV), an (+)ssRNA virus, spills over from its reservoir host, the honeybee Apis mellifera, into the bumblebee Bombus terrestris. However, the low impact of DWV on B. terrestris in laboratory experiments suggests host barriers to virus spread in this recipient host. To investigate potential host barriers, we followed the spread of DWV genotype B (DWV-B) through a host's body using RT-PCR after experimental transmission to bumblebees in comparison to honeybees. Inoculation was per os, mimicking food-borne transmission, or by injection into the bee's haemocoel, mimicking vector-based transmission. In honeybees, DWV-B was present in both honeybee faeces and haemolymph within 3 days of inoculation per os or by injection. In contrast, DWV-B was not detected in B. terrestris haemolymph after inoculation per os, suggesting a gut barrier that hinders DWV-B's spread through the body of a B. terrestris. DWV-B was, however, detected in B. terrestris faeces after injection and feeding, albeit at a lower abundance than that observed for A. mellifera, suggesting that B. terrestris sheds less DWV-B than A. mellifera in faeces when infected. Barriers to viral spread in B. terrestris following oral infection may limit DWV's impact on this spillover host and reduce its contribution to the community epidemiology of DWV.

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

High genetic diversity of the himalayan marmot relative to plague outbreaks in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Plague, as an ancient zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis, has brought great disasters. The natural plague focus of Marmota himalayana in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the largest, which has been constantly active and the leading source of human plague in China for decades. Understanding the population genetics of M. himalayana and relating that information to the biogeographic distribution of Yersinia pestis and plague outbreaks are greatly beneficial for the knowledge of plague spillover and arecrucial for pandemic prevention. In the present research, we assessed the population genetics of M. himalayana. We carried out a comparative study of plague outbreaks and the population genetics of M. himalayana on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. We found that M. himalayana populations are divided into two main clusters located in the south and north of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Fourteen DFR genomovars of Y. pestis were found and exhibited a significant region-specific distribution. Additionally, the increased genetic diversity of plague hosts is positively associated with human plague outbreaks. This insight gained can improve our understanding of biodiversity for pathogen spillover and provide municipally directed targets for One Health surveillance development, which will be an informative next step toward increased monitoring of M. himalayana dynamics.

Competition-driven eco-evolutionary feedback reshapes bacteriophage lambda's fitness landscape and enables speciation

A major challenge in evolutionary biology is explaining how populations navigate rugged fitness landscapes without getting trapped on local optima. One idea illustrated by adaptive dynamics theory is that as populations adapt, their newly enhanced capacities to exploit resources alter fitness payoffs and restructure the landscape in ways that promote speciation by opening new adaptive pathways. While there have been indirect tests of this theory, to our knowledge none have measured how fitness landscapes deform during adaptation, or test whether these shifts promote diversification. Here, we achieve this by studying bacteriophage [Formula: see text], a virus that readily speciates into co-existing receptor specialists under controlled laboratory conditions. We use a high-throughput gene editing-phenotyping technology to measure [Formula: see text]'s fitness landscape in the presence of different evolved-[Formula: see text] competitors and find that the fitness effects of individual mutations, and their epistatic interactions, depend on the competitor. Using these empirical data, we simulate [Formula: see text]'s evolution on an unchanging landscape and one that recapitulates how the landscape deforms during evolution. [Formula: see text] heterogeneity only evolves in the shifting landscape regime. This study provides a test of adaptive dynamics, and, more broadly, shows how fitness landscapes dynamically change during adaptation, potentiating phenomena like speciation by opening new adaptive pathways.

Shift in virus composition in honeybees (Apis mellifera) following worldwide invasion by the parasitic mite and virus vector Varroa destructor

Invasive vectors can induce dramatic changes in disease epidemiology. While viral emergence following geographical range expansion of a vector is well known, the influence a vector can have at the level of the host's pathobiome is less well understood. Taking advantage of the formerly heterogeneous spatial distribution of the ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor that acts as potent virus vector among honeybees Apis mellifera, we investigated the impact of its recent global spread on the viral community of honeybees in a retrospective study of historical samples. We hypothesized that the vector has had an effect on the epidemiology of several bee viruses, potentially altering their transmissibility and/or virulence, and consequently their prevalence, abundance, or both. To test this, we quantified the prevalence and loads of 14 viruses from honeybee samples collected in mite-free and mite-infested populations in four independent geographical regions. The presence of the mite dramatically increased the prevalence and load of deformed wing virus, a cause of unsustainably high colony losses. In addition, several other viruses became more prevalent or were found at higher load in mite-infested areas, including viruses not known to be actively varroa-transmitted, but which may increase opportunistically in varroa-parasitized bees.

The 1889-90 flu pandemic in Greece: a social, cultural and economic history with lessons for the 21st century

The 1889-1892 influenza pandemic is the first flu outbreak that can be demonstrated to have been truly worldwide in scope. Its initial spread, along with the successive waves, coincided with an uneasy period of economic and political instability in Greece. Greek historians have largely ignored this outbreak in a national setting and have exclusively focused on the economic crisis and social unrest of that era. As in other countries, it seems that in Greece, too, the case fatality ratio was low, but morbidity and public health issues gained importance. Culturally, it triggered the creation of a new terminology around disease and proved an inspiration for satirical magazines. The economic distress of large parts of the population contributed to the design of health measures of only limited impact, with the press being the main source for dissemination of new health information. Despite being separated by 130 years, the 1889 influenza pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic share some striking similarities. They both spread across transport lines and were followed by spotty and multifocal subsequent waves, disproportionately affected the poorest and most vulnerable, and led to neologisms, strong public health debates, and shifts in employment habits and measures. As we move forward into the 21st century, it is essential that we are able to reflect on such shared trends over decades, which are true because of common and interactive co-determinants of infectious disease outbreak emergence and spread and our responses to them.

Understanding the divergent evolution and epidemiology of H3N8 influenza viruses in dogs and horses

Cross-species virus transmission events can lead to dire public health emergencies in the form of epidemics and pandemics. One example in animals is the emergence of the H3N8 equine influenza virus (EIV), first isolated in 1963 in Miami, FL, USA, after emerging among horses in South America. In the early 21st century, the American lineage of EIV diverged into two 'Florida' clades that persist today, while an EIV transferred to dogs around 1999 and gave rise to the H3N8 canine influenza virus (CIV), first reported in 2004. Here, we compare CIV in dogs and EIV in horses to reveal their host-specific evolution, to determine the sources and connections between significant outbreaks, and to gain insight into the factors controlling their different evolutionary fates. H3N8 CIV only circulated in North America, was geographically restricted after the first few years, and went extinct in 2016. Of the two EIV Florida clades, clade 1 circulates widely and shows frequent transfers between the USA and South America, Europe and elsewhere, while clade 2 was globally distributed early after it emerged, but since about 2018 has only been detected in Central Asia. Any potential zoonotic threat of these viruses to humans can only be determined with an understanding of its natural history and evolution. Our comparative analysis of these three viral lineages reveals distinct patterns and rates of sequence variation yet with similar overall evolution between clades, suggesting epidemiological intervention strategies for possible eradication of H3N8 EIV.

Competition-driven eco-evolutionary feedback reshapes bacteriophage lambda's fitness landscape and enables speciation

A major challenge in evolutionary biology is explaining how populations navigate rugged fitness landscapes without getting trapped on local optima. One idea illustrated by adaptive dynamics theory is that as populations adapt, their newly enhanced capacities to exploit resources alter fitness payoffs and restructure the landscape in ways that promote speciation by opening new adaptive pathways. While there have been indirect tests of this theory, none have measured how fitness landscapes deform during adaptation, or test whether these shifts promote diversification. Here, we achieve this by studying bacteriophage λ, a virus that readily speciates into co-existing receptor specialists under controlled laboratory conditions. We used a high-throughput gene editing-phenotyping technology to measure λ's fitness landscape in the presence of different evolved-λ competitors and found that the fitness effects of individual mutations, and their epistatic interactions, depend on the competitor. Using these empirical data, we simulated λ's evolution on an unchanging landscape and one that recapitulates how the landscape deforms during evolution. λ heterogeneity only evolved in the shifting landscape regime. This study provides a test of adaptive dynamics, and, more broadly, shows how fitness landscapes dynamically change during adaptation, potentiating phenomena like speciation by opening new adaptive pathways.

A Coupled Human and Natural Systems Framework to Characterize Emerging Infectious Diseases-The Case of Fibropapillomatosis in Marine Turtles

Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife have markedly increased in the last few decades. Unsustainable, continuous, and rapid alterations within and between coupled human and natural systems have significantly disrupted wildlife disease dynamics. Direct and indirect anthropogenic effects, such as climate change, pollution, encroachment, urbanization, travel, and trade, can promote outbreaks of infectious diseases in wildlife. We constructed a coupled human and natural systems framework identifying three main wildlife disease risk factors behind these anthropogenic effects: (i) immune suppression, (ii) viral spillover, and (iii) disease propagation. Through complex and convoluted dynamics, each of the anthropogenic effects and activities listed in our framework can lead, to some extent, to one or more of the identified risk factors accelerating disease outbreaks in wildlife. In this review, we present a novel framework to study anthropogenic effects within coupled human and natural systems that facilitate the emergence of infectious disease involving wildlife. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by applying it to Fibropapillomatosis disease of marine turtles. We aim to articulate the intricate and complex nature of anthropogenically exacerbated wildlife infectious diseases as multifactorial. This paper supports the adoption of a One Health approach and invites the integration of multiple disciplines for the achievement of effective and long-lasting conservation and the mitigation of wildlife emerging diseases.

Genome sequencing of dengue virus serotype 4 in a bat brain sample (Platyrrhinus helleri) from the Brazilian Amazon

The existence of sylvatic transmission of dengue virus in communities of neotropical bats remains uncertain. In this work we present a near-complete genome of dengue virus serotype 4 obtained from the brain sample of a bat from Platyrrhinus helleri specie collected in the Brazilian Amazon region. The presence of the virus in the brain sample may indicate a possible tropism for the central nervous system in bats, which may justify negative results in previous studies that focused on analysis of other tissues, such as liver and spleen. Besides the duration of dengue virus circulation in the Americas (circa 40 years) may be too short for an implementation of a sylvatic dengue virus cycle. Our findings suggest that continued monitoring is needed to confirm with the neotropical bats could potentially act as a natural reservoir of dengue in the region.

Geographic Range Overlap Rather than Phylogenetic Distance Explains Rabies Virus Transmission among Closely Related Bat Species

The cross-species transmission (CST) of pathogens can have dramatic consequences, as highlighted by recent disease emergence events affecting human, animal and plant health. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary factors that increase the likelihood of disease agents infecting and establishing in a novel host is therefore an important research area. Previous work across different pathogens, including rabies virus (RABV), found that increased evolutionary distance between hosts reduces the frequency of cross-species transmission and of permanent host shifts. However, whether this effect of host relatedness still holds for transmission among recently diverged hosts is not well understood. We aimed to ask if high host relatedness can still increase the probability of a host shift between more recently diverged hosts, and the importance of this effect relative to ecological predictors. We first addressed this question by quantifying the CST frequency of RABV between North American bat species within the genus Myotis, using a multi-decade data set containing 128 nucleoprotein (N) RABV sequences from ten host species. We compared RABV CST frequency within Myotis to the rates of CST between nine genera of North American bat species. We then examined whether host relatedness or host range overlap better explains the frequency of CST seen between Myotis species. We found that at the within genus scale, host range overlap, rather than host relatedness best explains the frequency of CST events. Moreover, we found evidence of CST occurring among a higher proportion of species, and CST more frequently resulting in sustained transmission in the novel host in the Myotis dataset compared to the multi-genus dataset. Our results suggest that among recently diverged species, the ability to infect a novel host is no longer restricted by physiological barriers but instead is limited by physical contact. Our results improve predictions of where future CST events for RABV might occur and clarify the relationship between host divergence and pathogen emergence.

Analysis of the genome of grapevine red blotch virus and related grabloviruses indicates diversification prior to the arrival of Vitis vinifera in North America

In this study 163 complete whole-genome sequences of the emerging pathogen grapevine red blotch virus (GRBV; genus Grablovirus, family Geminiviridae) were used to reconstruct phylogenies using Bayesian analyses on time-tipped (heterochronous) data. Using different combinations of priors, Bayes factors identified heterochronous datasets (3×200 million chains) generated from strict clock and exponential tree priors as being the most robust. Substitution rates of 3.2×10^-5 subsitutions per site per year (95% HPD 4.3-2.1×10^-5) across the whole of the GRBV genome were estimated, suggesting ancestral GRBV diverged from ancestral wild Vitis latent virus 1 around 9 000 years ago, well before the first documented arrival of Vitis vinifera in North America. Whole-genome analysis of GRBV isolates in a single infected field-grown grapevine across 12 years identified 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms none of which were fixed substitutions: an observation not discordant with the in silico estimate. The substitution rate estimated here is lower than those estimated for other geminiviruses and is the first for a woody-host-infecting geminivirus.

Developing an empirical model for spillover and emergence: Orsay virus host range in Caenorhabditis

A lack of tractable experimental systems in which to test hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary drivers of disease spillover and emergence has limited our understanding of these processes. Here we introduce a promising system: Caenorhabditis hosts and Orsay virus, a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus that naturally infects C. elegans. We assayed species across the Caenorhabditis tree and found Orsay virus susceptibility in 21 of 84 wild strains belonging to 14 of 44 species. Confirming patterns documented in other systems, we detected effects of host phylogeny on susceptibility. We then tested whether susceptible strains were capable of transmitting Orsay virus by transplanting exposed hosts and determining whether they transmitted infection to conspecifics during serial passage. We found no evidence of transmission in 10 strains (virus undetectable after passaging in all replicates), evidence of low-level transmission in 5 strains (virus lost between passage 1 and 5 in at least one replicate) and evidence of sustained transmission in 6 strains (including all three experimental C. elegans strains) in at least one replicate. Transmission was strongly associated with viral amplification in exposed populations. Variation in Orsay virus susceptibility and transmission among Caenorhabditis strains suggests that the system could be powerful for studying spillover and emergence.

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

The Ecology of Viral Emergence

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a profound impact on human health, economic well-being, and societal function. It is essential that we use this generational experience to better understand the processes that underpin the emergence of COVID-19 and other zoonotic diseases. Herein, I review the mechanisms that determine why and how viruses emerge in new hosts, as well as the barriers to this process. I show that traditional studies of virus emergence have an inherent anthropocentric bias, with disease in humans considered the inevitable outcome of virus emergence, when in reality viruses are integral components of a global ecosystem characterized by continual host jumping with humans also transmitting their viruses to other animals. I illustrate these points using coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, as a case study. I also outline the potential steps that can be followed to help mitigate and prevent future pandemics, with combating climate change a central component. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 9 is September 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Molecular phylogenetic assessment of the canine parvovirus 2 worldwide and analysis of the genetic diversity and temporal spreading in Brazil

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) is a relevant pathogen for dogs and causes a severe disease in carnivore species. CPV-2 reached pandemic proportions after the 1970s with the worldwide dissemination, generating antigenic and genetic variants (CPV-2a, CPV-2b, and CPV-2c) with different pathobiology in comparison with the original type CPV-2. The present study aimed to assess the current global CPV-2 molecular phylogeny and to analyze genetic diversity and temporal spreading of variants from Brazil. A total of 284 CPV-2 whole-genome sequences (WGS) and 684 VP2 complete genes (including 23 obtained in the present study) were compared to analyze phylogenetic relationships. Bayesian coalescent analysis estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) and the population dynamics of the different CPV-2 lineages in the last decades. The WGS phylogenetic tree demonstrated two main clades disseminated worldwide today. The VP2 gene tree showed a total of four well-defined clades distributed in different geographic regions, including one with CPV-2 sequences exclusive from Brazil. These clades do not have a relationship with the previous classification into CPV-2a, CPV-2b, and CPV-2c, despite some having a predominance of one or more antigenic types. Temporal analysis demonstrated that the main CPV-2 clades evolved within a few years (from the 1980s to 1990s) in North America and they spread worldwide afterwards. Population dynamics analysis demonstrated that CPV-2 presented a major dissemination increase at the end of the 1980s / beginning of the 1990s followed by a period of stability and a second minor increase from 2000 to 2004.

Experimental cross species transmission of a major viral pathogen in bees is predominantly from honeybees to bumblebees

Cross-species transmission of a pathogen from a reservoir to a recipient host species, spillover, can have major impacts on biodiversity, domestic species and human health. Deformed wing virus (DWV) is a panzootic RNA virus in honeybees that is causal in their elevated colony losses, and several correlative field studies have suggested spillover of DWV from managed honeybees to wild bee species such as bumblebees. Yet unequivocal demonstration of DWV spillover is lacking, while spillback, the transmission of DWV from a recipient back to the reservoir host, is rarely considered. Here, we show in fully crossed laboratory experiments that the transmission of DWV (genotype A) from honeybees to bumblebees occurs readily, yet we neither detected viral transmission from bumblebees to honeybees nor onward transmission from experimentally infected to uninoculated bumblebees. Our results support the potential for viral spillover from honeybees to other bee species in the field when robbing resources from heterospecific nests or when visiting the same flowers. They also underscore the importance of studies on the virulence of DWV in wild bee species so as to evaluate viral impact on individual and population fitness as well as viral adaption to new host species.

Spillover of Canine Parvovirus Type 2 to Pigs, South Dakota, USA, 2020

In 1978, canine parvovirus type 2 originated from spillover of a feline panleukopenia–like virus, causing a worldwide pandemic of enteritis and myocarditis among canids. In 2020, the virus was identified in pigs in South Dakota, USA, by PCR, sequencing, in situ hybridization, and serology. Genetic analysis suggests spillover from wildlife.

Diversity and evolution of the animal virome

The COVID-19 pandemic has given the study of virus evolution and ecology new relevance. Although viruses were first identified more than a century ago, we likely know less about their diversity than that of any other biological entity. Most documented animal viruses have been sampled from just two phyla - the Chordata and the Arthropoda - with a strong bias towards viruses that infect humans or animals of economic and social importance, often in association with strong disease phenotypes. Fortunately, the recent development of unbiased metagenomic next-generation sequencing is providing a richer view of the animal virome and shedding new light on virus evolution. In this Review, we explore our changing understanding of the diversity, composition and evolution of the animal virome. We outline the factors that determine the phylogenetic diversity and genomic structure of animal viruses on evolutionary timescales and show how this impacts assessment of the risk of disease emergence in the short term. We also describe the ongoing challenges in metagenomic analysis and outline key themes for future research. A central question is how major events in the evolutionary history of animals, such as the origin of the vertebrates and periodic mass extinction events, have shaped the diversity and evolution of the viruses they carry.

Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover

Human-mediated changes to natural ecosystems have consequences for both ecosystem and human health. Historically, efforts to preserve or restore 'biodiversity' can seem to be in opposition to human interests. However, the integration of biodiversity conservation and public health has gained significant traction in recent years, and new efforts to identify solutions that benefit both environmental and human health are ongoing. At the forefront of these efforts is an attempt to clarify ways in which biodiversity conservation can help reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover of pathogens from wild animals, sparking epidemics and pandemics in humans and livestock. However, our understanding of the mechanisms by which biodiversity change influences the spillover process is incomplete, limiting the application of integrated strategies aimed at achieving positive outcomes for both conservation and disease management. Here, we review the literature, considering a broad scope of biodiversity dimensions, to identify cases where zoonotic pathogen spillover is mechanistically linked to changes in biodiversity. By reframing the discussion around biodiversity and disease using mechanistic evidence - while encompassing multiple aspects of biodiversity including functional diversity, landscape diversity, phenological diversity, and interaction diversity - we work toward general principles that can guide future research and more effectively integrate the related goals of biodiversity conservation and spillover prevention. We conclude by summarizing how these principles could be used to integrate the goal of spillover prevention into ongoing biodiversity conservation initiatives.

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g. SARS, MERS, SADS and COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this "hidden" spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ∼400,000 people (median: ∼50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

[Obesity, inflammation and COVID-19: preventive interest of ketogenic diet?]

Obesity is considered a pandemic responsible for millions of deaths worldwide for many years. At the end of 2019, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared, causing the death of more than a million people in less than a year. Numerous studies suggest that obesity could be defined as key to the onset of severe forms of this emerging disease. Indeed, SARS-CoV2 infects the host by binding to ACE2 receptors present on the surface of the cells and causes excessive secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IL-1, IL-6 and TNF-α, which lead to developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). It therefore seems essential to make up effective preventive strategies to protect this part of the population from the risk of developing a severe form of COVID-19. The ketogenic diet, which is low in sugars and high in fat, has interesting properties, both in the fight against obesity but also against severe infections. This article focuses on the latest scientific advances that make it possible to consider the ketogenic diet as a preventive strategy that simultaneously reduces the development of obesity while strengthening the immune system, two key actions in the fight against SARS-CoV2 infections and severe forms of COVID-19.

From Protein to Pandemic: The Transdisciplinary Approach Needed to Prevent Spillover and the Next Pandemic

Pandemics are a consequence of a series of processes that span scales from viral biology at 10-9 m to global transmission at 106 m. The pathogen passes from one host species to another through a sequence of events that starts with an infected reservoir host and entails interspecific contact, innate immune responses, receptor protein structure within the potential host, and the global spread of the novel pathogen through the naive host population. Each event presents a potential barrier to the onward passage of the virus and should be characterized with an integrated transdisciplinary approach. Epidemic control is based on the prevention of exposure, infection, and disease. However, the ultimate pandemic prevention is prevention of the spillover event itself. Here, we focus on the potential for preventing the spillover of henipaviruses, a group of viruses derived from bats that frequently cross species barriers, incur high human mortality, and are transmitted among humans via stuttering chains. We outline the transdisciplinary approach needed to prevent the spillover process and, therefore, future pandemics.

Zoonotic spillover: Understanding basic aspects for better prevention

The transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is called “zoonotic spillover”. Most human infectious diseases (60-75%) are derived from pathogens that originally circulated in non-human animal species. This demonstrates that spillover has a fundamental role in the emergence of new human infectious diseases. Understanding the factors that facilitate the transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is essential to establish strategies focused on the reduction of the frequency of spillover events. In this context, this article describes the basic aspects of zoonotic spillover and the main factors involved in spillover events, considering the role of the inter-species interactions, phylogenetic distance between host species, environmental drivers, and specific characteristics of the pathogens, animals, and humans. As an example, the factors involved in the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are discussed, indicating what can be learned from this public health emergency, and what can be applied to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, this article discusses actions to prevent or reduce the frequency of zoonotic spillover events.

The new emerging ovine pestivirus can infect pigs and confers strong protection against classical swine fever virus

Several emerging pestiviruses have been reported lately, some of which have proved to cause disease. Recently, a new ovine pestivirus (OVPV), isolated from aborted lambs, with high genetic identity to classical swine fever virus (CSFV), has proved to induce reproductive disorders in pregnant ewes. OVPV also generated strong serological and molecular cross-reaction with CSFV. To assess the capacity of OVPV to infect swine, twelve piglets were infected either by intranasal or intramuscular route. Daily clinical evaluation and weekly samplings were performed to determine pathogenicity, viral replication and excretion and induction of immune response. Five weeks later, two pigs from each group were euthanized and tissue samples were collected to study viral replication and distribution. OVPV generated only mild clinical signs in the piglets, including wasting and polyarthritis. The virus was able to replicate, as shown by the RNA levels found in sera and swabs and persisted in tonsil for at least 5 weeks. Viral replication activated the innate and adaptive immunity, evidenced by the induction of interferon-alpha levels early after infection and cross-neutralizing antibodies against CSFV, including humoural response against CSFV E2 and E^rns glycoproteins. Close antigenic relation between OVPV and CSFV genotype 2.3 was detected. To determine the OVPV protection against CSFV, the OVPV-infected pigs were challenged with a highly virulent strain. Strong clinical, virological and immunological protection was generated in the OVPV-infected pigs, in direct contrast with the infection control group. Our findings show, for the first time, the OVPV capacity to infect swine, activate immunity, and the robust protection conferred against CSFV. In addition, their genetic and antigenic similarities, the close relationship between both viruses, suggest their possible coevolution as two branches stemming from a shared origin at the same time in two different hosts.

Assessing the risks of SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 likely emerged from a wildlife source with transmission to humans followed by rapid geographic spread throughout the globe and severe impacts on both human health and the global economy. Since the onset of the pandemic, there have been many instances of human-to-animal transmission involving companion, farmed and zoo animals, and limited evidence for spread into free-living wildlife. The establishment of reservoirs of infection in wild animals would create significant challenges to infection control in humans and could pose a threat to the welfare and conservation status of wildlife. We discuss the potential for exposure, onward transmission and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in an initial selection of wild mammals (bats, canids, felids, mustelids, great apes, rodents and cervids). Dynamic risk assessment and targeted surveillance are important tools for the early detection of infection in wildlife, and here we describe a framework for collating and synthesising emerging information to inform targeted surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife. Surveillance efforts should be integrated with information from public and veterinary health initiatives to provide insights into the potential role of wild mammals in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

Land use-induced spillover: a call to action to safeguard environmental, animal, and human health

The rapid global spread and human health impacts of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, show humanity's vulnerability to zoonotic disease pandemics. Although anthropogenic land use change is known to be the major driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations, the scientific underpinnings of land use-induced zoonotic spillover have rarely been investigated from the landscape perspective. We call for interdisciplinary collaborations to advance knowledge on land use implications for zoonotic disease emergence with a view toward informing the decisions needed to protect human health. In particular, we urge a mechanistic focus on the zoonotic pathogen infect-shed-spill-spread cascade to enable protection of landscape immunity-the ecological conditions that reduce the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts-as a conservation and biosecurity priority. Results are urgently needed to formulate an integrated, holistic set of science-based policy and management measures that effectively and cost-efficiently minimise zoonotic disease risk. We consider opportunities to better institute the necessary scientific collaboration, address primary technical challenges, and advance policy and management issues that warrant particular attention to effectively address health security from local to global scales.

Viruses That Can and Cannot Coexist With Humans and the Future of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a worldwide pandemic. Many projections concerning the outbreak, such as the estimated number of cases and deaths in upcoming months, have been made available. However, what happens to the virus after the pandemic subsides has not been fully explored. In this article, we discuss the ways that past and present human viruses have emerged via zoonotic transmission, the mechanisms that they have acquired the ability for effective transmission among humans, the process to sustain a chain of transmission to coexist with humans, and the factors important for complete containment leading to eradication of viruses. These aspects of viral disease may provide clues for the future path that SARS-CoV-2 might take in relation to human infection.

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Molecular evolution of coxsackievirus A24v in Cuba over 23-years, 1986-2009

Coxsackievirus A24 variant (CVA24v) is a major causative agent of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks worldwide, yet the evolutionary and transmission dynamics of the virus remain unclear. To address this, we analyzed and compared the 3C and partial VP1 gene regions of CVA24v isolates obtained from five outbreaks in Cuba between 1986 and 2009 and strains isolated worldwide. Here we show that Cuban strains were homologous to those isolated in Africa, the Americas and Asia during the same time period. Two genotypes of CVA24v (GIII and GIV) were repeatedly introduced into Cuba and they arose about two years before the epidemic was detected. The two genotypes co-evolved with a population size that is stable over time. However, nucleotide substitution rates peaked during pandemics with 4.39 × 10-3 and 5.80 × 10-3 substitutions per site per year for the 3C and VP1 region, respectively. The phylogeographic analysis identified 25 and 19 viral transmission routes based on 3C and VP1 regions, respectively. Pandemic viruses usually originated in Asia, and both China and Brazil were the major hub for the global dispersal of the virus. Together, these data provide novel insight into the epidemiological dynamics of this virus and possibly other pandemic viruses.

Host-Pathogen Responses to Pandemic Influenza H1N1pdm09 in a Human Respiratory Airway Model

The respiratory Influenza A Viruses (IAVs) and emerging zoonotic viruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pose a significant threat to human health. To accelerate our understanding of the host–pathogen response to respiratory viruses, the use of more complex in vitro systems such as normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell culture models has gained prominence as an alternative to animal models. NHBE cells were differentiated under air-liquid interface (ALI) conditions to form an in vitro pseudostratified epithelium. The responses of well-differentiated (wd) NHBE cells were examined following infection with the 2009 pandemic Influenza A/H1N1pdm09 strain or following challenge with the dsRNA mimic, poly(I:C). At 30 h postinfection with H1N1pdm09, the integrity of the airway epithelium was severely impaired and apical junction complex damage was exhibited by the disassembly of zona occludens-1 (ZO-1) from the cell cytoskeleton. wdNHBE cells produced an innate immune response to IAV-infection with increased transcription of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines and the antiviral viperin but reduced expression of the mucin-encoding MUC5B, which may impair mucociliary clearance. Poly(I:C) produced similar responses to IAV, with the exception of MUC5B expression which was more than 3-fold higher than for control cells. This study demonstrates that wdNHBE cells are an appropriate ex-vivo model system to investigate the pathogenesis of respiratory viruses.

Influenza Viruses in Mice: Deep Sequencing Analysis of Serial Passage and Effects of Sialic Acid Structural Variation

Influenza A viruses have regularly jumped to new host species to cause epidemics or pandemics, an evolutionary process that involves variation in the viral traits necessary to overcome host barriers and facilitate transmission. Mice are not a natural host for influenza virus but are frequently used as models in studies of pathogenesis, often after multiple passages to achieve higher viral titers that result in clinical disease such as weight loss or death. Here, we examine the processes of influenza A virus infection and evolution in mice by comparing single nucleotide variations of a human H1N1 pandemic virus, a seasonal H3N2 virus, and an H3N2 canine influenza virus during experimental passage. We also compared replication and sequence variation in wild-type mice expressing N-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc) with those seen in mice expressing only N-acetylneuraminic acid (Neu5Ac). Viruses derived from plasmids were propagated in MDCK cells and then passaged in mice up to four times. Full-genome deep sequencing of the plasmids, cultured viruses, and viruses from mice at various passages revealed only small numbers of mutational changes. The H3N2 canine influenza virus showed increases in frequency of sporadic mutations in the PB2, PA, and NA segments. The H1N1 pandemic virus grew well in mice, and while it exhibited the maintenance of some minority mutations, there was no clear evidence for adaptive evolution. The H3N2 seasonal virus did not establish in the mice. Finally, there were no clear sequence differences associated with the presence or absence of Neu5Gc.IMPORTANCE Mice are commonly used as a model to study the growth and virulence of influenza A viruses in mammals but are not a natural host and have distinct sialic acid receptor profiles compared to humans. Using experimental infections with different subtypes of influenza A virus derived from different hosts, we found that evolution of influenza A virus in mice did not necessarily proceed through the linear accumulation of host-adaptive mutations, that there was variation in the patterns of mutations detected in each repetition, and that the mutation dynamics depended on the virus examined. In addition, variation in the viral receptor, sialic acid, did not affect influenza virus evolution in this model. Overall, our results show that while mice provide a useful animal model for influenza virus pathology, host passage evolution will vary depending on the specific virus tested.