Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Climate change, its impact on emerging infectious diseases and new technologies to combat the challenge

ABSTRACTImproved sanitation, increased access to health care, and advances in preventive and clinical medicine have reduced the mortality and morbidity rates of several infectious diseases. However, recent outbreaks of several emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have caused substantial mortality and morbidity, and the frequency of these outbreaks is likely to increase due to pathogen, environmental, and population effects driven by climate change. Extreme or persistent changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and air pollution associated with climate change can, for example, expand the size of EID reservoirs, increase host-pathogen and cross-species host contacts to promote transmission or spillover events, and degrade the overall health of susceptible host populations leading to new EID outbreaks. It is therefore vital to establish global strategies to track and model potential responses of candidate EIDs to project their future behaviour and guide research efforts on early detection and diagnosis technologies and vaccine development efforts for these targets. Multi-disciplinary collaborations are demanding to develop effective inter-continental surveillance and modelling platforms that employ artificial intelligence to mitigate climate change effects on EID outbreaks. In this review, we discuss how climate change has increased the risk of EIDs and describe novel approaches to improve surveillance of emerging pathogens that pose the risk for EID outbreaks, new and existing measures that could be used to contain or reduce the risk of future EID outbreaks, and new methods to improve EID tracking during further outbreaks to limit disease transmission.

Regional variation in the landscape ecology of West Nile virus sentinel chicken seroconversion in Florida

How landscape composition and configuration impact the distribution of multi-vector and multi-host mosquito vector-borne disease systems, such as West Nile virus (WNV), remains challenging because of complex habitat and resource requirements by hosts and vectors that affect transmission opportunities. We examined correlations between landscape composition and configuration and 2018 WNV sentinel chicken seroconversion in Florida, USA across the state and within five National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) bioclimatic regions to understand strength and variation of landscape effects during an elevated transmission year. Although few landscape studies have examined WNV in Florida, we expected higher percentages of residential or medium-developed landscapes and more fragmented landscapes would be positively correlated with WNV seroconversion owing to the main mosquito vector habitats and avian host distributions. However, we expected to find variation in the importance of forest, wetland, and agriculture landscapes across bioclimatic regions in the state. WNV seroconversion rates were calculated using Florida 2018 Department of Health WNV sentinel chicken seroconversion data from 187 flocks maintained by mosquito control programs. Percent land cover and edge density metrics were calculated for multiple land cover classes and within multiple buffer distances from chicken coops using 2019 National Land Cover Data. We used binomial generalized linear mixed effects models to calculate the importance of landscape metrics to WNV seroconversion. We found no statewide predictors of seroconversion, but as expected, the importance of landscape varied across regions. In the north-central part of the state, we found higher seroconversion in less populated suburban areas while higher seroconversion in south-central Florida was correlated with fragmented forested areas within 0.5 km of coops and intact woody wetland areas within 2 km of coops. This work corroborates previous findings that consistent landscape predictors of WNV are difficult to identify across broader geographic areas and sets the stage for additional work that incorporates climate and landscapes interactions for a greater understanding of WNV ecology in this geographic region.

The Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases in a Wilderness Medicine Context

The imminent climate crisis has been labeled as the biggest health threat humanity must deal with. Vector-borne disease distribution and transmission as well as the population at risk are influenced to a great degree by environmental and climactic factors affecting both the vectors themselves and the causative pathogens. Paired with an increase in worldwide travel, urbanization, and globalization, along with population displacements and migration, elucidating the effects of anthropogenic climate change on these illnesses is therefore of the essence to stave off potential negative sequelae. Outcomes on different vector-borne diseases will be diverse, but for many of them, these developments will result in a distribution shift or expansion with the possibility of (re-)introduction of vector and pathogen species in previously nonendemic areas. The consequence will be a growing likelihood for novel human, vector, and pathogen interactions with an increased risk for infection, morbidity, and mortality. Wilderness medicine professionals commonly work in close relationship to the natural environment and therefore will experience these alterations most strongly in their practice. Hence, this article attempts to bring awareness to the subject at hand in a wilderness medicine context, with a focus on malaria, the most burdensome of arthropod-borne diseases. For prevention of the potentially dire consequences on human health induced by climate change, concerted and intensified efforts to reduce the burning of fossil fuels and thus greenhouse gas emissions will be imperative on a global scale.

Forecasting malaria dynamics based on causal relations between control interventions, climatic factors, and disease incidence in western Kenya

Background

Malaria remains one of the deadliest diseases worldwide, especially among young children in sub-Saharan Africa. Predictive models are necessary for effective planning and resource allocation; however, statistical models suffer from association pitfalls. In this study, we used empirical dynamic modelling (EDM) to investigate causal links between climatic factors and intervention coverage with malaria for short-term forecasting.

Methods

Based on data spanning the period from 2008 to 2022, we used convergent cross-mapping (CCM) to identify suitable lags for climatic drivers and investigate their effects, interaction strength, and suitability ranges on malaria incidence. Monthly malaria cases were collected at St. Elizabeth Lwak Mission Hospital. Intervention coverage and population movement data were obtained from household surveys in Asembo, western Kenya. Daytime land surface temperature (LSTD), rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed, solar radiation, crop cover, and surface water coverage were extracted from remote sensing sources. Short-term forecasting of malaria incidence was performed using state-space reconstruction.

Results

We observed causal links between climatic drivers, bed net use, and malaria incidence. LSTD lagged over the previous month; rainfall and RH lagged over the previous two months; and wind speed in the current month had the highest predictive skills. Increases in LSTD, wind speed, and bed net use negatively affected incidence, while increases in rainfall and humidity had positive effects. Interaction strengths were more pronounced at temperature, rainfall, RH, wind speed, and bed net coverage ranges of 30-35°C, 30-120 mm, 67-80%, 0.5-0.7 m/s, and above 90%, respectively. Temperature and rainfall exceeding 35°C and 180 mm, respectively, had a greater negative effect. We also observed good short-term predictive performance using the multivariable forecasting model (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.85, root mean square error = 0.15).

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrate the utility of CCM in establishing causal linkages between malaria incidence and both climatic and non-climatic drivers. By identifying these causal links and suitability ranges, we provide valuable information for modelling the impact of future climate scenarios.

Climate change and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in North and central America

Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan parasite that causes Chagas disease in humans. Transmission of T cruzi by triatomine vectors is dependent on diverse environmental and socioeconomic factors. Climate change, which is disrupting patterns of human habitation and land use, can affect the epidemiology of Chagas disease by influencing the distribution of vector and host species. We conducted a review using triatomine distribution as a proxy for T cruzi transmission in North America (Canada, Mexico, and the USA) and central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) and investigated the association of T cruzi transmission with climate change, identifying 12 relevant studies. Most studies (n=9) modelled the effect of the scenario of climate change on the distribution of relevant vector species and found that global warming could sometimes favour and sometimes hinder triatomine distribution. There is a need for more research in parasite biology and social sciences to further understand how climate change and socioeconomic factors can affect the epidemiology of this neglected tropical disease.

Usutu virus, an emerging arbovirus with One Health importance

Usutu virus (USUV, Flaviviridae) is an emerging arbovirus that has led to epizootic outbreaks in birds and numerous human neuroinvasive disease cases in Europe. It is maintained in an enzootic cycle with Culex mosquitoes and passerine birds, a transmission cycle that is shared by West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), two flaviviruses that are endemic in the United States. USUV and WNV co-circulate in Africa and Europe, and SLEV and WNV co-circulate in North America. These three viruses are prime examples of One Health issues, in which the interactions between humans, animals, and the environments they reside in can have important health impacts. The three facets of One Health are interwoven throughout this article as we discuss the mechanisms of flavivirus transmission and emergence. We explore the possibility of USUV emergence in the United States by analyzing the shared characteristics among USUV, WNV, and SLEV, including the role that flavivirus co-infections and sequential exposures may play in viral emergence. Finally, we provide insights on the importance of integrated surveillance programs as One Health tools that can be used to mitigate USUV emergence and spread.

Space-time dynamics of the dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2024: an insight for decision making

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024.

METHODS

This is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters.

RESULTS

1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5-59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7-44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3-10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2-22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7-40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil.

Remote sensing of temperature-dependent mosquito and viral traits predicts field surveillance-based disease risk

Mosquito-borne diseases contribute substantially to the global burden of disease, and are strongly influenced by environmental conditions. Ongoing and rapid environmental change necessitates improved understanding of the response of mosquito-borne diseases to environmental factors like temperature, and novel approaches to mapping and monitoring risk. Recent development of trait-based mechanistic models has improved understanding of the temperature dependence of transmission, but model predictions remain challenging to validate in the field. Using West Nile virus (WNV) as a case study, we illustrate the use of a novel remote sensing-based approach to mapping temperature-dependent mosquito and viral traits at high spatial resolution and across the diurnal cycle. We validate the approach using mosquito and WNV surveillance data controlling for other key factors in the ecology of WNV, finding strong agreement between temperature-dependent traits and field-based metrics of risk. Moreover, we find that WNV infection rate in mosquitos exhibits a unimodal relationship with temperature, peaking at ~24.6-25.2°C, in the middle of the 95% credible interval of optimal temperature for transmission of WNV predicted by trait-based mechanistic models. This study represents one of the highest resolution validations of trait-based model predictions, and illustrates the utility of a novel remote sensing approach to predicting mosquito-borne disease risk.

Mean daily temperatures can predict the thermal limits of malaria transmission better than rate summation

Temperature shapes the distribution, seasonality, and magnitude of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. Mechanistic models predicting transmission often use mosquito and pathogen thermal responses from constant temperature experiments. However, mosquitoes live in fluctuating environments. Rate summation (nonlinear averaging) is a common approach to infer performance in fluctuating environments, but its accuracy is rarely validated. We measured three mosquito traits that impact transmission (bite rate, survival, fecundity) in a malaria mosquito (Anopheles stephensi) across temperature gradients with three diurnal temperature ranges (0, 9 and 12°C). We compared thermal suitability models with temperature-trait relationships observed under constant temperatures, fluctuating temperatures, and those predicted by rate summation. We mapped results across An. stephenesi's native Asian and invasive African ranges. We found: 1) daily temperature fluctuation significantly altered trait thermal responses; 2) rate summation partially captured decreases in performance near thermal optima, but also incorrectly predicted increases near thermal limits; and 3) while thermal suitability characterized across constant temperatures did not perfectly capture suitability in fluctuating environments, it was more accurate for estimating and mapping thermal limits than predictions from rate summation. Our study provides insight into methods for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk and emphasizes the need to improve understanding of organismal performance under fluctuating conditions.

Human outbreaks of a novel reassortant Oropouche virus in the Brazilian Amazon region

The Brazilian western Amazon is experiencing its largest laboratory-confirmed Oropouche virus (OROV) outbreak, with more than 6,300 reported cases between 2022 and 2024. In this study, we sequenced and analyzed 382 OROV genomes from human samples collected in Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia and Roraima states, between August 2022 and February 2024, to uncover the origin and genetic evolution of OROV in the current outbreak. Genomic analyses revealed that the upsurge of OROV cases in the Brazilian Amazon coincides with spread of a novel reassortant lineage containing the M segment of viruses detected in the eastern Amazon region (2009-2018) and the L and S segments of viruses detected in Peru, Colombia and Ecuador (2008-2021). The novel reassortant likely emerged in the Amazonas state between 2010 and 2014 and spread through long-range dispersion events during the second half of the 2010s. Phylodynamics reconstructions showed that the current OROV spread was driven mainly by short-range (< 2 km) movements consistent with the flight range of vectors. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion (22%) of long-range (>10 km) OROV migrations were also detected, consistent with viral dispersion by humans. Our data provide a view of the unprecedented spread and evolution of OROV in the Brazilian western Amazon region.

Managing vector-borne diseases in a geoAI-enabled society. Malaria as an example

More than 17 % of all infectious diseases are caused by vector-borne diseases resulting in more than 1 billion cases and over 1 million deaths each year. Of these malaria continues to be a global burden in over eighty countries. As societies become more digitalised, the availability of geospatially enabled health and disease information will become more abundant. With this, the ability to assess health and disease risks in real-time will become a reality. The purpose of this study was to examine how geographic information, geospatial technologies and spatial data science are being used to reduce the burden of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and explore the opportunities that lie ahead with GeoAI and other geospatial technology advancements. Malaria is a dynamic and complex system and as such a range of data and approaches are needed to tackle different parts of the malaria cycle at different local and global scales. Geospatial technologies provide an integrated framework vital for monitoring, analysing and managing vector-borne diseases. GeoAI and technological advancements are useful for enhancing real-time assessments, accelerating the decision making process and spatial targeting of interventions. Training is needed to enhance the use of geospatial information for the management of vector-borne diseases.

The Alligator and the Mosquito: North American Crocodilians as Amplifiers of West Nile Virus in Changing Climates

In an age of emerging zoonoses, it is important to understand the intricate system of vectors and reservoirs, or hosts, and their relation to humans. West Nile Virus (WNV) has been detected in a myriad of nonhuman hosts. Transmission of the virus to humans is reliant on amplified seroprevalence within the host, which occurs primarily in birds. However, recent studies have found that other animal groups, including crocodilians, can obtain seroprevalence amplification to levels that make them competent hosts able to transmit WNV to mosquitoes, which can then transmit to humans. Climate change could exacerbate this transmission risk by shifting the distributions of mosquito vectors towards novel geographic ranges. Here, we use maximum entropy models to map the current and future distributions of three mosquito vector species and four crocodilian species in North America to determine the emerging risk of WNV outbreaks associated with changing climates and WNV associated with crocodilians in North America. From our models, we determined that one mosquito species in particular, Culex quinquefasciatus, will increase its distribution across the ranges of all crocodilian species in all tested climate change scenarios. This poses a potential risk to public health for people visiting and living near crocodilian farms and high-density natural crocodilian populations.

Warmer environmental temperature accelerates aging in mosquitoes, decreasing longevity and worsening infection outcomes

BACKGROUND

Most insects are poikilotherms and ectotherms, so their body temperature is predicated by environmental temperature. With climate change, insect body temperature is rising, which affects how insects develop, survive, and respond to infection. Aging also affects insect physiology by deteriorating body condition and weakening immune proficiency via senescence. Aging is usually considered in terms of time, or chronological age, but it can also be conceptualized in terms of body function, or physiological age. We hypothesized that warmer temperature decouples chronological and physiological age in insects by accelerating senescence. To investigate this, we reared the African malaria mosquito, Anopheles gambiae, at 27 °C, 30 °C and 32 °C, and measured survival starting at 1-, 5-, 10- and 15-days of adulthood after no manipulation, injury, or a hemocoelic infection with Escherichia coli or Micrococcus luteus. Then, we measured the intensity of an E. coli infection to determine how the interaction between environmental temperature and aging shapes a mosquito's response to infection.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that longevity declines when a mosquito is infected with bacteria, mosquitoes have shorter lifespans when the temperature is warmer, older mosquitoes are more likely to die, and warmer temperature marginally accelerates the aging-dependent decline in survival. Furthermore, we discovered that E. coli infection intensity increases when the temperature is warmer and with aging, and that warmer temperature accelerates the aging-dependent increase in infection intensity. Finally, we uncovered that warmer temperature affects both bacterial and mosquito physiology.

CONCLUSIONS

Warmer environmental temperature accelerates aging in mosquitoes, negatively affecting both longevity and infection outcomes. These findings have implications for how insects will serve as pollinators, agricultural pests, and disease vectors in our warming world.

Discarded vehicle tires and their association with mosquito vector abundance across socioenvironmental gradients in New Orleans, LA

Discarded vehicle tires serve as habitat for mosquito vectors. In New Orleans, Louisiana, discarded tires are an increasingly important public concern, especially considering that the city is home to many medically important mosquito species. Discarded tires are known to be associated with mosquito abundance, but how their presence interacts with other socioenvironmental gradients to influence mosquito ecology is poorly understood. Here, we ask whether discarded tire distribution could be explained by social factors, particularly median income, home vacancy and human population density, and whether these factors interact with urban heat islands (UHI) to drive mosquito vector assemblages. We surveyed tire piles across the city and adult mosquitoes in 12 sites, between May and October of 2020. We compared this data with the social indicators selected and UHI estimates. Our results show that median income and human population density were inversely related to tire abundance. Tire abundance was positively associated with Aedes albopictus abundance in places of low heat (LS) severity. Heat was the only predictor for the other monitored species, where high heat corresponded to higher abundance of Aedes aegypti, and LS to higher abundance of Culex quinquefasciatus. Our results suggest that low-income, sparsely populated neighborhoods of New Orleans may be hotspots for discarded vehicle tires, and are associated with higher abundances of at least one medically important mosquito (Ae. albopictus). These findings suggest potential locations for prioritizing source reduction efforts to control mosquito vectors and highlight discarded tires as a potential exposure pathway to unequal disease risk for low-income residents.

Role of vector phenotypic plasticity in disease transmission as illustrated by the spread of dengue virus by Aedes albopictus

The incidence of vector-borne disease is on the rise globally, with burdens increasing in endemic countries and outbreaks occurring in new locations. Effective mitigation and intervention strategies require models that accurately predict both spatial and temporal changes in disease dynamics, but this remains challenging due to the complex and interactive relationships between environmental variation and the vector traits that govern the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Predictions of disease risk in the literature typically assume that vector traits vary instantaneously and independently of population density, and therefore do not capture the delayed response of these same traits to past biotic and abiotic environments. We argue here that to produce accurate predictions of disease risk it is necessary to account for environmentally driven and delayed instances of phenotypic plasticity. To show this, we develop a stage and phenotypically structured model for the invasive mosquito vector, Aedes albopictus, and dengue, the second most prevalent human vector-borne disease worldwide. We find that environmental variation drives a dynamic phenotypic structure in the mosquito population, which accurately predicts global patterns of mosquito trait-abundance dynamics. In turn, this interacts with disease transmission to capture historic dengue outbreaks. By comparing the model to a suite of simpler models, we reveal that it is the delayed phenotypic structure that is critical for accurate prediction. Consequently, the incorporation of vector trait relationships into transmission models is critical to improvement of early warning systems that inform mitigation and control strategies.

Climate change impacts on dengue transmission areas in Espírito Santo state, Brazil

Espírito Santo state, in Brazil, is a dengue-endemic region predicted to suffer from an increase in temperature and drought due to climate change, which could affect the areas with active dengue virus transmission. The study objective was modeling climatic factors and climate change effects in zones suitable for dengue virus transmission in Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on dengue reports from 2022 were used to determine climatic variables related to spatial distribution. The climate change projections were generated for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. A maximum entropy algorithm was used to construct the three models and projections, and the results were used to calculate the ensemble mean. Isothermality, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and annual precipitation impacted the model. Projections indicated a change in areas suitable for dengue virus transmission, varying from -30.44% in the 2070s (SSP1-2.6) to +13.07% in the 2070s (SSP5-8.5) compared to 2022. The coastal regions were consistently suitable in all scenarios. Urbanized and highly populated areas were predicted to persist with active dengue transmission in Espírito Santo state, posing challenges for public health response.

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Emergence and Reemergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Temperate Zones: An Umbrella Review Protocol

INTRODUCTION

Mosquito-borne diseases represent a global public health concern and are responsible for over 700 000 deaths globally every year. Additionally, many mosquito species have undergone a dramatic global expansion due to various factors, including climate change, and forecasts indicate that mosquito populations will persist in dispersing beyond their present geographic range, namely in temperate climates. The research literature on this topic has grown in recent years, including some systematic evidence synthesis. However, to provide a comprehensive overview of this growing literature needed for policy action, a summary of this evidence, including existing systematic reviews, is required. This study aims to undertake an umbrella review that explores the impacts of climate change on the emergence and reemergence of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in temperate zones and the publication of the protocol is a fundamental step to ensure the credibility, transparency and reproducibility of this research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Studies published in scientific journals indexed by PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and Web of Science Core Collection to be included in this umbrella review will meet the following criteria: the topic of study (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), regions (temperate zones), study designs (systematic reviews and meta-analysis), language (any) and date (since inception until December 31st, 2023). Titles and abstracts from selected articles will be evaluated by two authors independently and any discrepancy will be resolved through consensus or, if not possible, through a third author. The data will be extracted, and the risk of bias will be evaluated. The quality of the methodology of the included reviews will be assessed using AMSTAR 2. A narrative synthesis will examine the included systematic reviews. The quality of evidence for all outcomes will be judged using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation working group methodology.

Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for West Nile Virus Outbreak in Germany: An Inversely Calibrated Approach

Since the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile Virus was detected in Germany (WNV) in 2018, it has become endemic in several parts of the country and is continuing to spread due to the attainment of a suitable environment for vector occurrence and pathogen transmission. Increasing temperature associated with a changing climate has been identified as a potential driver of mosquito-borne disease in temperate regions. This scenario justifies the need for the development of a spatially and temporarily explicit model that describes the dynamics of WNV transmission in Germany. In this study, we developed a process-based mechanistic epidemic model driven by environmental and epidemiological data. Functional traits of mosquitoes and birds of interest were used to parameterize our compartmental model appropriately. Air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were the key climatic forcings used to replicate the fundamental niche responsible for supporting mosquito population and infection transmission risks in the study area. An inverse calibration method was used to optimize our parameter selection. Our model was able to generate spatially and temporally explicit basic reproductive number (R0) maps showing dynamics of the WNV occurrences across Germany, which was strongly associated with the deviation from daily means of climatic forcings, signaling the impact of a changing climate in vector-borne disease dynamics. Epidemiological data for human infections sourced from Robert Koch Institute and animal cases collected from the Animal Diseases Information System (TSIS) of the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute were used to validate model-simulated transmission rates. From our results, it was evident that West Nile Virus is likely to spread towards the western parts of Germany with the rapid attainment of environmental suitability for vector mosquitoes and amplifying host birds, especially short-distance migratory birds. Locations with high risk of WNV outbreak (Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony) were shown on R0 maps. This study presents a path for developing an early warning system for vector-borne diseases driven by climate change.

Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: Comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches

Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.87). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming. Our results indicate that lab-based and field-based studies are highly complementary; performing the analyses in concert can help to more comprehensively understand vector response to climate change.

Seasonal mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) dynamics and the influence of environmental variables in a land use gradient from Yucatan, Mexico

Mosquito-borne diseases constitute a significant global impact on public and animal health. Climatic variables are recognized as major drivers in the mosquitoes' life history, principally rainfall and temperature, which directly influence mosquito abundance. Likewise, urbanization changes environmental conditions, and understanding how environmental variables and urbanization influence mosquito dynamics is crucial for the integrated management of mosquito-borne diseases, especially in the context of climate change. In this study, our aim was to observe the effect of temperature, rainfall, and the percentage of impervious surface on the abundance of mosquito species over a temporal scale of one complete year of fortnightly samplings, spanning from June 2021 to June 2022 in Yucatan, Mexico. We selected nine localities along an urbanization gradient (three natural, three rural, and three urban) from Mérida City to Reserva de la Biosfera Ría Celestún. Using BG-traps, mosquitoes were collected biweekly at each locality. Additionally, we estimated the percentage of impervious surface. Daily data of the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, diurnal temperature range and rainfall were accumulated weekly. We calculated the accumulated quantities of temperatures and rainfall and lagged from one to four weeks before sampling for each locality. Generalized linear mixed models were then performed to study the influence of environmental variables and percentage of impervious surfaces on each of the 15 most abundant species. A total of 131,525 mosquitoes belonging to 11 genera and 49 species were sampled with BG-Sentinel traps baited with BG-lure and dry ice. The most frequently significative variable is the accumulated precipitation four weeks before the sampling. We observed a positive relationship between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Cx. thriambus with the diurnal temperature range. For Ae. aegypti, we observed a positive relationship with minimum temperature. Conversely, the percentage of impervious surface serves as a proxy of anthropogenic influence and helped us to distinguishing species exhibiting habitat preference for urban and rural environments, versus those preferring natural habitats. Our results characterize the species-specific effects of environmental variables (temperature, rainfall and impervious surface) on mosquito abundance.

Mosquitoes reared in distinct insectaries within an institution in close spatial proximity possess significantly divergent microbiomes

The microbiome affects important aspects of mosquito biology and differences in microbial composition can affect the outcomes of laboratory studies. To determine how the biotic and abiotic conditions in an insectary affect the composition of the bacterial microbiome of mosquitoes we reared mosquitoes from a single cohort of eggs from one genetically homogeneous inbred Aedes aegypti colony, which were split into three batches, and transferred to each of three different insectaries located within the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. Using three replicate trays per insectary, we assessed and compared the bacterial microbiome composition as mosquitoes developed from these eggs. We also characterised the microbiome of the mosquitoes' food sources, measured environmental conditions over time in each climate-controlled insectary, and recorded development and survival of mosquitoes. While mosquito development was overall similar between all three insectaries, we saw differences in microbiome composition between mosquitoes from each insectary. Furthermore, bacterial input via food sources, potentially followed by selective pressure of temperature stability and range, did affect the microbiome composition. At both adult and larval stages, specific members of the mosquito microbiome were associated with particular insectaries; and the insectary with less stable and cooler conditions resulted in slower pupation rate and higher diversity of the larval microbiome. Tray and cage effects were also seen in all insectaries, with different bacterial taxa implicated between insectaries. These results highlight the necessity of considering the variability and effects of different microbiome composition even in experiments carried out in a laboratory environment starting with eggs from one batch; and highlights the impact of even minor inconsistencies in rearing conditions due to variation of temperature and humidity.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Mathematical analysis and prediction of future outbreak of dengue on time-varying contact rate using machine learning approach

This article introduces a novel mathematical model analyzing the dynamics of Dengue in the recent past, specifically focusing on the 2023 outbreak of this disease. The model explores the patterns and behaviors of dengue fever in Bangladesh. Incorporating a sinusoidal function reveals significant mid-May to Late October outbreak predictions, aligning with the government's exposed data in our simulation. For different amplitudes (A) within a sequence of values (A = 0.1 to 0.5), the highest number of infected mosquitoes occurs in July. However, simulations project that when βM = 0.5 and A = 0.1, the peak of human infections occurs in late September. Not only the next-generation matrix approach along with the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are observed, but also a cutting-edge Machine learning (ML) approach such as the Prophet model is explored for forecasting future Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh. Remarkably, we have fitted our solution curve of infection with the reported data by the government of Bangladesh. We can predict the outcome of 2024 based on the ML Prophet model situation of Dengue will be detrimental and proliferate 25 % compared to 2023. Finally, the study marks a significant milestone in understanding and managing Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Influence of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors on presence of malaria at the community level in two continents

The interactions of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics are complex and changeable, influencing the abundance and distribution of vectors and the pathogens they transmit. In this study, 27 years of cross-sectional malaria survey data (1990-2017) were used to examine the effects of these factors on Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria presence at the community level in Africa and Asia. Monthly long-term, open-source data for each factor were compiled and analyzed using generalized linear models and classification and regression trees. Both temperature and precipitation exhibited unimodal relationships with malaria, with a positive effect up to a point after which a negative effect was observed as temperature and precipitation increased. Overall decline in malaria from 2000 to 2012 was well captured by the models, as was the resurgence after that. The models also indicated higher malaria in regions with lower economic and development indicators. Malaria is driven by a combination of environmental, geographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological factors, and in this study, we demonstrated two approaches to capturing this complexity of drivers within models. Identifying these key drivers, and describing their associations with malaria, provides key information to inform planning and prevention strategies and interventions to reduce malaria burden.

Plasticity in mosquito size and thermal tolerance across a latitudinal climate gradient

Variation in heat tolerance among populations can determine whether a species is able to cope with ongoing climate change. Such variation may be especially important for ectotherms whose body temperatures, and consequently, physiological processes, are regulated by external conditions. Additionally, differences in body size are often associated with latitudinal clines, thought to be driven by climate gradients. While studies have begun to explore variation in body size and heat tolerance within species, our understanding of these patterns across large spatial scales, particularly regarding the roles of plasticity and genetic differences, remains incomplete. Here, we examine body size, as measured by wing length, and thermal tolerance, as measured by the time to immobilisation at high temperatures ("thermal knockdown"), in populations of the mosquito Aedes sierrensis collected from across a large latitudinal climate gradient spanning 1300 km (34-44° N). We find that mosquitoes collected from lower latitudes and warmer climates were more tolerant of high temperatures than those collected from higher latitudes and colder climates. Moreover, body size increased with latitude and decreased with temperature, a pattern consistent with James' rule, which appears to be a result of plasticity rather than genetic variation. Our results suggest that warmer environments produce smaller and more thermally tolerant populations.

Rapid, Multiplexed, and Enzyme-Free Nucleic Acid Detection Using Programmable Aptamer-Based RNA Switches

Rapid, simple, and low-cost diagnostic technologies are crucial tools for combatting infectious disease. We describe a class of aptamer-based RNA switches or aptaswitches that recognize target nucleic acid molecules and initiate folding of a reporter aptamer. Aptaswitches can detect virtually any sequence and provide an intense fluorescent readout without intervening enzymes, generating signals in as little as 5 minutes and enabling detection by eye with minimal equipment. Aptaswitches can be used to regulate folding of seven fluorogenic aptamers, providing a general means of controlling aptamers and an array of multiplexable reporter colors. Coupling isothermal amplification reactions with aptaswitches, we reach sensitivities down to 1 RNA copy/μL in one-pot reactions. Application of multiplexed all-in-one reactions against RNA from clinical saliva samples yields an overall accuracy of 96.67% for detection of SARS-CoV-2 in 30 minutes. Aptaswitches are thus versatile tools for nucleic acid detection that are readily integrated into rapid diagnostic assays.

Disentangling the seasonality effects of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon basin

The evidence of seasonal patterns in malaria epidemiology in the Brazilian Amazon basin indicates the need for a thorough investigation of seasonality in this last and heterogeneous region. Additionally, since these patterns are linked to climate variables, malaria models should also incorporate them. This study applies wavelet analysis to incidence data from 2003 to 2020 in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-Malaria) database. A mathematical model with climate-dependent parametrization is proposed to study counts of malaria cases over time based on notification data, temperature and rainfall. The wavelet analysis reveals marked seasonality in states Amazonas and Amapá throughout the study period, and from 2003 to 2012 in Pará. However, these patterns are not as marked in other states such as Acre and Pará in more recent years. The wavelet coherency analysis indicates a strong association between incidence and temperature, especially for the municipalities of Macapá and Manaus, and a similar association for rainfall. The mathematical model fits well with the observed temporal trends in both municipalities. Studies on climate-dependent mathematical models provide a good assessment of the baseline epidemiology of malaria. Additionally, the understanding of seasonality effects and the application of models have great potential as tools for studying interventions for malaria control.

Current and lagged associations of meteorological variables and Aedes mosquito indices with dengue incidence in the Philippines

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an increasing health burden that has spread throughout the tropics and sub-tropics. There is currently no effective vaccine and control is only possible through integrated vector management. Early warning systems (EWS) to alert potential dengue outbreaks are currently being explored but despite showing promise are yet to come to fruition. This study addresses the association of meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue incidences and assesses the added value of additionally using mosquito indices for predicting dengue incidences.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Entomological surveys were carried out monthly for 14 months in six sites spread across three environmentally different cities of the Philippines. Meteorological and dengue data were acquired. Non-linear generalized additive models were fitted to test associations of the meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue cases. Rain and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) contributed most to explaining the variation in both mosquito indices and number of dengue cases. DTR and minimum temperature also explained variation in dengue cases occurring one and two months later and may offer potentially useful variables for an EWS. The number of adult mosquitoes did associate with the number of dengue cases, but contributed no additional value to meteorological variables for explaining variation in dengue cases.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The use of meteorological variables to predict future risk of dengue holds promise. The lack of added value of using mosquito indices confirms several previous studies and given the onerous nature of obtaining such information, more effort should be placed on improving meteorological information at a finer scale to evaluate efficacy in early warning of dengue outbreaks.

Worldwide distribution, symptoms and diagnosis of the coinfections between malaria and arboviral diseases: a systematic review

The coinfection between malaria (ML) and arboviral diseases represents a major global public health problem, particularly in tropical and subtropical countries. Despite its relevance, this topic is still insufficiently discussed in the current literature. Here, we aimed to investigate the worldwide distribution, symptoms, and diagnosis during coinfection between ML and arboviral diseases. We conducted a systematic review following the Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement and assessed the selection and eligibility criteria, created and diagrammed maps, and analysed major symptoms with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using prevalence ratio and effect size, also performing latent class analysis. A total of 85,485 studies were retrieved, of which 56 were included: 57.14% in Asia, 25% in Africa, 14.30% in South America, and 3.56% in Europe. A total of 746 individuals were reported to be coinfected with Plasmodium and arbovirus. Concurrent ML, Dengue (DEN), Chikungunya (CHIK), and Zika (ZIK) patients are more likely to present headache and skin rash. Regarding diagnosis, 58,253 were made, of which 38,176 were positive (ML and at least one arboviral disease). The magnitude of these pathogens' coexistence points out the pressing need for improvements in public health policies towards diagnosis and prevention of both diseases, especially in endemic areas.

Multiple bouts of blood feeding in mosquitoes allow prolonged survival and are predicted to increase viral transmission during drought

Survival through periods of drought is critical for mosquitoes to reside in semi-arid regions with humans, but water sources may be limited. Previous studies have shown that dehydrated mosquitoes will increase blood feeding propensity, but how this would occur over extended dry periods is unknown. Following a bloodmeal, prolonged exposure to dry conditions increased secondary blood feeding in mosquitoes by nearly two-fold, and chronic blood feeding allowed mosquitoes to survive twenty days without access to water sources. This refeeding did not alter the number of eggs generated, suggesting this refeeding is for hydration and nutrient replenishment. Exposure to desiccating conditions following a bloodmeal resulted in increased activity, decreased sleep levels, and prompted a return of CO2 sensing before egg deposition. The increased blood feeding during the vitellogenic stage and higher survival during dry periods are predicted to increase pathogen transmission and explain the elevated levels of specific arbovirus cases during dry conditions. These results solidify our understanding of the role of dry periods on mosquito blood feeding and how mosquito dehydration contributes to vectorial capacity and disease transmission dynamics.

Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates

Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.

Mosquito population dynamics is shaped by the interaction among larval density, season, and land use

Understanding how variation in key abiotic and biotic factors interact at spatial scales relevant for mosquito fitness and population dynamics is crucial for predicting current and future mosquito distributions and abundances, and the transmission potential for human pathogens. However, studies investigating the effects of environmental variation on mosquito traits have investigated environmental factors in isolation or in laboratory experiments that examine constant environmental conditions that often do not occur in the field. To address these limitations, we conducted a semi-field experiment in Athens, Georgia using the invasive Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). We selected nine sites that spanned natural variation in impervious surface and vegetation cover to explore effects of the microclimate (temperature and humidity) on mosquitoes. On these sites, we manipulated conspecific larval density at each site. We repeated the experiment in the summer and fall. We then evaluated the effects of land cover, larval density, and time of season, as well as interactive effects, on the mean proportion of females emerging, juvenile development time, size upon emergence, and predicted per capita population growth (i.e., fitness). We found significant effects of larval density, land cover, and season on all response variables. Of most note, we saw strong interactive effects of season and intra-specific density on each response variable, including a non-intuitive decrease in development time with increasing intra-specific competition in the fall. Our study demonstrates that ignoring the interaction between variation in biotic and abiotic variables could reduce the accuracy and precision of models used to predict mosquito population and pathogen transmission dynamics, especially those inferring dynamics at finer-spatial scales across which transmission and control occur.

Altered thermal preferences of infected or immune-challenged Aedes aegypti and Aedes japonicus mosquitoes

Temperature is a critical factor shaping physiology, life cycle, and behaviour of ectothermic vector insects, as well as the development and multiplication of pathogens within them. However, the influence of pathogen infections on thermal preferences (behavioural thermoregulation) is not well-understood. The present study examined the thermal preferences of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Ae. japonicus) infected with either Sindbis virus (SINV) or Dirofilaria immitis over 12 days post exposure (p.e.) or injected with a non-pathogenic Sephadex bead over 24 h in a thermal gradient (15-30 °C). SINV-infected Ae. aegypti preferred 5 °C warmer temperatures than non-infected ones at day 6 p.e., probably the time of highest innate immune response. In contrast, D. immitis-infected Ae. japonicus preferred 4 °C cooler temperatures than non-infected ones at day 9 p.e., presumably a stress response during the migration of third instar larvae from their development site to the proboscis. Sephadex bead injection also induced a cold preference in the mosquitoes but to a level that did not differ from control-injections. The cold preference thus might be a strategy to escape the risk of desiccation caused by the wound created by piercing the thorax. Further research is needed to uncover the genetic and physiological mechanisms underlying these behaviours.

A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses

Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.

Control of companion animal parasites and impact on One Health

The last decades have witnessed an increase in the global population and movements of companion animals, contributing to changes in density and distribution of pet parasites. Control of companion animal parasites (CAPs) becomes increasingly relevant because of the intensifying human-animal bond. Parasites impact on the health of humans and their pets, but also of wildlife and the environment. We conducted a qualitative review on the current advancements, gaps and priorities for the monitoring and treatment of CAPs with a focus on securing public health. There is a need to raise awareness, coordinate global surveillance schemes and better quantify the impact of companion animal parasites on One Health.

Effects of microclimate on disease prevalence across an urbanization gradient

Increased temperatures associated with urbanization (the "urban heat island" effect) have been shown to impact a wide range of traits across diverse taxa. At the same time, climatic conditions vary at fine spatial scales within habitats due to factors including shade from shrubs, trees, and built structures. Patches of shade may function as microclimate refugia that allow species to occur in habitats where high temperatures and/or exposure to ultraviolet radiation would otherwise be prohibitive. However, the importance of shaded microhabitats for interactions between species across urbanized landscapes remains poorly understood. Weedy plants and their foliar pathogens are a tractable system for studying how multiple scales of climatic variation influence infection prevalence. Powdery mildew pathogens are particularly well suited to this work, as these fungi can be visibly diagnosed on leaf surfaces. We studied the effects of shaded microclimates on rates of powdery mildew infection on Plantago host species in (1) "pandemic pivot" surveys in which undergraduate students recorded shade and infection status of thousands of plants along road verges in urban and suburban residential neighborhoods, (2) monthly surveys of plant populations in 22 parks along an urbanization gradient, and (3) a manipulative field experiment directly testing the effects of shade on the growth and transmission of powdery mildew. Together, our field survey results show strong positive effects of shade on mildew infection in wild Plantago populations across urban, suburban, and rural habitats. Our experiment suggests that this relationship is causal, where microclimate conditions associated with shade promote pathogen growth. Overall, infection prevalence increased with urbanization despite a negative association between urbanization and tree cover at the landscape scale. These findings highlight the importance of taking microclimate heterogeneity into account when establishing links between macroclimate or land use context and prevalence of disease.

Acclimation to warmer temperatures can protect host populations from both further heat stress and the potential invasion of pathogens

Thermal acclimation can provide an essential buffer against heat stress for host populations, while acting simultaneously on various life-history traits that determine population growth. In turn, the ability of a pathogen to invade a host population is intimately linked to these changes via the supply of new susceptible hosts, as well as the impact of warming on its immediate infection dynamics. Acclimation therefore has consequences for hosts and pathogens that extend beyond simply coping with heat stress-governing both population growth trajectories and, as a result, an inherent propensity for a disease outbreak to occur. The impact of thermal acclimation on heat tolerances, however, is rarely considered simultaneously with metrics of both host and pathogen population growth, and ultimately fitness. Using the host Daphnia magna and its bacterial pathogen, we investigated how thermal acclimation impacts host and pathogen performance at both the individual and population scales. We first tested the effect of maternal and direct thermal acclimation on the life-history traits of infected and uninfected individuals, such as heat tolerance, fecundity, and lifespan, as well as pathogen infection success and spore production. We then predicted the effects of each acclimation treatment on rates of host and pathogen population increase by deriving a host's intrinsic growth rate (rm) and a pathogen's basic reproductive number (R0). We found that direct acclimation to warming enhanced a host's heat tolerance and rate of population growth, despite a decline in life-history traits such as lifetime fecundity and lifespan. In contrast, pathogen performance was consistently worse under warming, with within-host pathogen success, and ultimately the potential for disease spread, severely hampered at higher temperatures. Our results suggest that hosts could benefit more from warming than their pathogens, but only by linking multiple individual traits to population processes can the full impact of higher temperatures on host and pathogen population dynamics be realised.

Commonly Reported Mosquito-Borne Viruses in the United States: A Primer for Pharmacists

Mosquito-borne diseases are a public health concern. Pharmacists are often a patient's first stop for health information and may be asked questions regarding transmission, symptoms, and treatment of mosquito borne viruses (MBVs). The objective of this paper is to review transmission, geographic location, symptoms, diagnosis and treatment of MBVs. We discuss the following viruses with cases in the US in recent years: Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, LaCrosse Encephalitis, Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus, and Zika. Prevention, including vaccines, and the impact of climate change are also discussed.

Warming alters life-history traits and competition in a phage community

Host-parasite interactions are highly susceptible to changes in temperature due to mismatches in species thermal responses. In nature, parasites often exist in communities, and responses to temperature are expected to vary between host-parasite pairs. Temperature change thus has consequences for both host-parasite dynamics and parasite-parasite interactions. Here, we investigate the impact of warming (37°C, 40°C, and 42°C) on parasite life-history traits and competition using the opportunistic bacterial pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa (host) and a panel of three genetically diverse lytic bacteriophages (parasites). We show that phages vary in their responses to temperature. While 37°C and 40°C did not have a major effect on phage infectivity, infection by two phages was restricted at 42°C. This outcome was attributed to disruption of different phage life-history traits including host attachment and replication inside hosts. Furthermore, we show that temperature mediates competition between phages by altering their competitiveness. These results highlight phage trait variation across thermal regimes with the potential to drive community dynamics. Our results have important implications for eukaryotic viromes and the design of phage cocktail therapies.IMPORTANCEMammalian hosts often elevate their body temperatures through fevers to restrict the growth of bacterial infections. However, the extent to which fever temperatures affect the communities of phages with the ability to parasitize those bacteria remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the impact of warming across a fever temperature range (37°C, 40°C, and 42°C) on phage life-history traits and competition using a bacterium (host) and bacteriophage (parasite) system. We show that phages vary in their responses to temperature due to disruption of different phage life-history traits. Furthermore, we show that temperature can alter phage competitiveness and shape phage-phage competition outcomes. These results suggest that fever temperatures have the potential to restrict phage infectivity and drive phage community dynamics. We discuss implications for the role of temperature in shaping host-parasite interactions more widely.

Trends of Mansonia (Diptera, Culicidae, Mansoniini) in Porto Velho: Seasonal patterns and meteorological influences

Entomological research is vital for shaping strategies to control mosquito vectors. Its significance also reaches into environmental management, aiming to prevent inconveniences caused by non-vector mosquitoes like the Mansonia Blanchard, 1901 mosquito. In this study, we carried out a five-year (2019-2023) monitoring of these mosquitoes at ten sites in Porto Velho, Rondônia, using SkeeterVac SV3100 automatic traps positioned between the two hydroelectric complexes on the Madeira River. Throughout this period, we sampled 153,125 mosquitoes, of which the Mansonia genus accounted for 54% of the total, indicating its prevalence in the region. ARIMA analysis revealed seasonal patterns of Mansonia spp., highlighting periods of peak density. Notably, a significant decreasing trend in local abundance was observed from July 2021 (25th epidemiological week) until the end of the study. Wind speed was observed to be the most relevant meteorological factor influencing the abundance of Mansonia spp. especially in the Joana D'Arc settlement, although additional investigation is needed to comprehensively analyze other local events and gain a deeper understanding of the ecological patterns of this genus in the Amazon region.

Forest edge landscape context affects mosquito community composition and risk of pathogen emergence

Forest edges, where humans, mosquitoes, and wildlife interact, may serve as a nexus for zoonotic arbovirus exchange. Although often treated as uniform interfaces, the landscape context of edge habitats can greatly impact ecological interactions. Here, we investigated how the landscape context of forest edges shapes mosquito community structure in an Amazon rainforest reserve near the city of Manaus, Brazil, using hand-nets to sample mosquitoes at three distinct forest edge types. Sampling sites were situated at edges bordering urban land cover, rural land cover, and natural treefall gaps, while sites in continuous forest served as controls. Community composition differed substantially among edge types, with rural edges supporting the highest species diversity. Rural edges also provided suitable habitat for forest specialists, including key sylvatic vectors, of which Haemagogus janthinomys was the most abundant species sampled overall. Our findings emphasize the importance of landscape context in assessing pathogen emergence risk at forest edges.

Investigating the Yanomami malaria outbreak puzzle: surge in mining during Bolsonaro's government triggered peak in malaria burden

The Yanomami, an Indigenous people from the Amazon, confront multifaceted challenges endangering their health and cultural integrity. Of immediate concern is the surge in malaria cases in their territory during Bolsonaro's government. We investigated the impact of land use on malaria incidence among the Yanomami leveraging satellite imagery and ran difference-in-differences analyses to ask whether the Yanomami suffered disproportionately from malaria when illegal mining was rising in the region (2016-2022). We show a remarkable ~300% rise in malaria from 2016 to 2022 and point to mining as the primary driver of malaria among the Yanomami; when mining increases by 1%, malaria increases by 31%. After mining unfolded, the burden of malaria among the Yanomami was disproportionately higher, up to 15%, than in non-indigenous communities. Our findings underscore the impact of illegal mining on the high malaria burden suffered by the Yanomami and the importance of rainforest conservation and land sovereignty for Indigenous health.

Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

Thermal tolerance of mosquito eggs is associated with urban adaptation and human interactions

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect mosquito distributions and their ability to serve as vectors for disease, specifically with the anticipated increase in heat waves. The rising temperature and frequent heat waves can accelerate mosquito life cycles, facilitating higher disease transmission. Conversely, higher temperatures could increase mosquito mortality as a negative consequence. Warmer temperatures are associated with increased human density, suggesting a need for anthropophilic mosquitoes to adapt to be more hardy to heat stress. Mosquito eggs provide an opportunity to study the biological impact of climate warming as this stage is stationary and must tolerate temperatures at the site of female oviposition. As such, egg thermotolerance is critical for survival in a specific habitat. In nature, Aedes mosquitoes exhibit different behavioral phenotypes, where specific populations prefer depositing eggs in tree holes and prefer feeding non-human vertebrates. In contrast, others, particularly human-biting specialists, favor laying eggs in artificial containers near human dwellings. This study examined the thermotolerance of eggs, along with adult stages, for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus lineages associated with known ancestry and shifts in their relationship with humans. Mosquitoes collected from areas with higher human population density, displaying increased human preference, and having a human-associated ancestry profile have increased egg viability following high-temperature stress. Unlike eggs, thermal tolerance among adults showed no significant correlation based on the area of collection or human-associated ancestry. This study highlights that the egg stage is likely critical to mosquito survival when associated with humans and needs to be accounted when predicting future mosquito distribution.

High temperatures and low humidity promote the occurrence of microsporidians (Microsporidia) in mosquitoes (Culicidae)

BACKGROUND

In the context of climate change, a growing concern is that vector-pathogen or host-parasite interactions may be correlated with climatic factors, especially increasing temperatures. In the present study, we used a mosquito-microsporidian model to determine the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, wind and rainfall on the occurrence rates of opportunistic obligate microparasites (Microsporidia) in hosts from a family that includes important disease vectors (Culicidae).

METHODS

In our study, 3000 adult mosquitoes collected from the field over 3 years were analysed. Mosquitoes and microsporidia were identified using PCR and sequencing of the hypervariable V5 region of the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene and a shortened fragment of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene, respectively.

RESULTS

DNA metabarcoding was used to identify nine mosquito species, all of which were hosts of 12 microsporidian species. The prevalence of microsporidian DNA across all mosquito samples was 34.6%. Microsporidian prevalence in mosquitoes was more frequent during warm months (> 19 °C; humidity < 65%), as was the co-occurrence of two or three microsporidian species in a single host individual. During warm months, microsporidian occurrence was noted 1.6-fold more often than during the cold periods. Among the microsporidians found in the mosquitoes, five (representing the genera Enterocytospora, Vairimorpha and Microsporidium) were positively correlated with an increase in temperature, whereas one (Hazardia sp.) was significantly correlated with a decrease in temperature. Threefold more microsporidian co-occurrences were recorded in the warm months than in the cold months.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the susceptibility of mosquitoes to parasite occurrence is primarily determined by environmental conditions, such as, for example, temperatures > 19 °C and humidity not exceeding 62%. Collectively, our data provide a better understanding of the effects of the environment on microsporidian-mosquito interactions.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

Landscape level associations between birds, mosquitoes and microclimates: possible consequences for disease transmission?

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise. While climatic factors have been linked to disease occurrences, they do not explain the non-random spatial distribution in disease outbreaks. Landscape-related factors, such as vegetation structure, likely play a crucial but hitherto unquantified role.

METHODS

We explored how three critically important factors that are associated with mosquito-borne disease outbreaks: microclimate, mosquito abundance and bird communities, vary at the landscape scale. We compared the co-occurrence of these three factors in two contrasting habitat types (forest versus grassland) across five rural locations in the central part of the Netherlands between June and September 2021.

RESULTS

Our results show that forest patches provide a more sheltered microclimate, and a higher overall abundance of birds. When accounting for differences in landscape characteristics, we also observed that the number of mosquitoes was higher in isolated forest patches.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that, at the landscape scale, variation in tree cover coincides with suitable microclimate and high Culex pipiens and bird abundance. Overall, these factors can help understand the non-random spatial distribution of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks.

Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics

Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil

Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.