Predicting future climate at high spatial and temporal resolution

High-resolution climate data reveal an increasing risk of warming-driven activity restriction for diurnal and nocturnal lizards

Widespread species experience a variety of climates across their distribution, which can structure their thermal tolerance, and ultimately, responses to climate change. For ectotherms, activity is highly dependent on temperature, its variability and availability of favourable microclimates. Thermal exposure and tolerance may be structured by the availability and heterogeneity of microclimates for species living along temperature and/or precipitation gradients - but patterns and mechanisms underlying such gradients are poorly understood. We measured critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) for five populations of two sympatric lizard species, a nocturnal gecko (Chondrodactylus bibronii) and a diurnal skink (Trachylepis variegata) and recorded hourly thermal variation for a year in three types of microclimate relevant to the activity of lizards (crevice, full sun and partial shade) for six sites across a precipitation gradient. Using a combination of physiological and modelling approaches, we derived warming tolerance for the present and the end of the century. In the present climate, we found an overall wider thermal tolerance for the nocturnal species relative to the diurnal species, and no variation in CTmax but variable CTmin along the precipitation gradient for both species. However, warming tolerances varied significantly over the course of the day, across months and microhabitats. The diurnal skink was most restricted in its daily activity in the three driest sites with up to six daily hours of restricted activity in the open (i.e. outside refugia) during the summer months, while the impacts for the nocturnal gecko were less severe, due to its higher CTmax and night activity. With climate change, lizards will experience more months where activity is restricted and increased exposure to high temperatures even within the more sheltered microhabitats. Together our results highlight the importance of considering the relevant spatiotemporal scale and habitat for understanding the thermal exposure of diurnal and nocturnal species.

The relationship between the body and air temperature in a terrestrial ectotherm

Ectotherms make up the majority of terrestrial biodiversity, so it is important to understand their potential responses to climate change. Often, models aiming to achieve this understanding correlate species distributions with ambient air temperature. However, this assumes a constant relationship between the air temperature and body temperature, which determines an ectotherm's thermal performance. To test this assumption, we develop and validate a method for retrospective estimation of ectotherm body temperature using heat exchange equations. We apply the model to predict the body temperature of wild field crickets (Gryllus campestris) in Northern Spain for 1985-2019 and compare these values to air temperature. We show that while air temperature impacts ectotherm body temperature, it captures only a fraction of its thermal experience. Solar radiation can increase the body temperature by more than 20°C above air temperature with implications for physiology and behaviour. The effect of solar radiation on body temperature is particularly important given that climate change will alter cloud cover. Our study shows that the impacts of climate change on species cannot be assumed to be proportional only to changing air temperature. More reliable models of future species distributions require mechanistic links between environmental conditions and thermal ecophysiologies of species.

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

Harnessing deep learning to forecast local microclimate using global climate data

Microclimate is a complex non-linear phenomenon influenced by both global and local processes. Its understanding holds a pivotal role in the management of natural resources and the optimization of agricultural procedures. This phenomenon can be effectively monitored in local areas by employing models that integrate physical laws and data-driven algorithms relying on climate data and terrain conformation. Climate data can be acquired from nearby meteorological stations when available, but in their absence, global climate datasets describing 10 km-scale areas are often utilized. The present research introduces an innovative microclimate model that combines physical laws and deep learning to reproduce temperature and relative humidity variations at the meter-scale within a study area located in the Lombardian foothills. The model is exploited to perform a comparative study investigating whether employing the global climate dataset ERA5 as input reduces model's accuracy in reproducing the microclimate variations compared to using data collected by the Lombardy Regional Environment Protection Agency (ARPA) from a nearby meteorological station. The comparative analysis shows that using local meteorological data as inputs provides more accurate results for microclimate modeling. However, in situations where local data is not available, the use of global climate data remains a viable and reliable approach.

Wilderness areas under threat from global redistribution of agriculture

Agriculture expansion is already the primary cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss globally1,2; yet, to meet the demands of growing human populations, production is expected to have to double by 2050.3 The challenge of achieving expansion without further detriment to the environment and biodiversity is huge and potentially compounded by climate change, which may necessitate shifting agriculture zones poleward to regions with more suitable climates,4 threatening species or areas of conservation priority.5,6,7 However, the possible future overlap between agricultural suitability and wilderness areas, increasingly recognized for significant biodiversity, cultural, and climate regulation values, has not yet been examined. Here, using high-resolution climate data, we model global present and future climate suitability for 1,708 crop varieties. We project, over the next 40 years, that 2.7 million km2 of land within wilderness will become newly suitable for agriculture, equivalent to 7% of the total wilderness area outside Antarctica. The increase in potentially cultivable land in wilderness areas is particularly acute at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, where 76.3% of newly suitable land is currently wilderness, equivalent to 10.2% of the total wilderness area. Our results highlight an important and previously unidentified possible consequence of the disproportionate warming known to be occurring in high northern latitudes. Because we find that, globally, 72.0% of currently cultivable land is predicted to experience a net loss in total crop diversity, agricultural expansion is a major emerging threat to wilderness. Without protection, the vital integrity of these valuable areas could be irreversibly lost.

Habitat Temperatures of the Red Firebug, Pyrrhocoris apterus: The Value of Small-Scale Climate Data Measurement

Ambient temperature is a main parameter that determines the thriving and propagation of ectothermic insects. It affects egg and larval development as well as adults' survival and successful overwintering. Pyrrhocoris apterus is a herbivorous bug species almost ubiquitous in Eurasia. Its distribution extends from the Atlantic Coast to Siberia, Northwest China and Mongolia. After introduction, it established successfully in the USA, Central America, India and Australia, which indicates a high invasive potential of this species. We determined the climatic conditions in Central Europe in a habitat where P. apterus has been continuously observed for decades. We conducted temperature measurements in the habitat and in the microhabitats where individuals could be found during the year and set them against freely available climate data commonly used to characterize habitat climate. Our temperature measurements were also compared to thermal limits (critical thermal minima and maxima). Although ambient temperatures outside the thermal boundaries of P. apterus can and do occur in the habitat, the bugs thrive and propagate. Microhabitat measurement in winter showed that individuals sought areas with favorable temperatures for hibernation. In particular, these areas are not (always) represented in large-scale climate tables, leading to possible misinterpretation of future patterns of spread of invasive species spread.

Weathering the storm: Decreased activity and glucocorticoid levels in response to inclement weather in breeding Columbian ground squirrels

Inclement weather can rapidly modify the thermal conditions experienced by animals, inducing changes in their behavior, body condition, and stress physiology, and affecting their survival and breeding success. For animals living in variable environments, the extent to which they have adapted to cope with inclement weather is not established, especially for hibernating species with a short active season that are constrained temporally to breed and store energy for subsequent hibernation. We examined behavioral (foraging activity) and physiological (body mass and fecal cortisol metabolites) responses of Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus), small hibernating rodents inhabiting open meadows in Rocky Mountains, to 3 events of inclement weather (two snow storms in May 2021 and May 2022, one heavy rainfall in June 2022). We found that individuals adapted to inclement weather conditions by (1) reducing above-ground activity, including foraging, (2) decreasing the mobilization of stored resources as indicated by a decrease in the activity of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and lower fecal cortisol metabolites in the hours/days following periods of inclement weather; and (3) compensating through increased foraging and more local activity when favorable conditions resumed. As a result, body mass and growth did not decrease following short periods of inclement weather. Columbian ground squirrels were well-adapted to short periods of inclement weather, coping via modifications of their behavior and the activity of the HPA axis.

Heterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands

Landscapes nearby glaciers are disproportionally affected by climate change, but we lack detailed information on microclimate variations that can modulate the impacts of global warming on proglacial ecosystems and their biodiversity. Here, we use near-subsurface soil temperatures in 175 stations from polar, equatorial and alpine glacier forelands to generate high-resolution temperature reconstructions, assess spatial variability in microclimate change from 2001 to 2020, and estimate whether microclimate heterogeneity might buffer the severity of warming trends. Temporal changes in microclimate are tightly linked to broad-scale conditions, but the rate of local warming shows great spatial heterogeneity, with faster warming nearby glaciers and during the warm season, and an extension of the snow-free season. Still, most of the fine-scale spatial variability of microclimate is one-to-ten times larger than the temporal change experienced during the past 20 years, indicating the potential for microclimate to buffer climate change, possibly allowing organisms to withstand, at least temporarily, the effects of warming.

Quantifying the movement, behaviour and environmental context of group-living animals using drones and computer vision

Methods for collecting animal behaviour data in natural environments, such as direct observation and biologging, are typically limited in spatiotemporal resolution, the number of animals that can be observed and information about animals' social and physical environments. Video imagery can capture rich information about animals and their environments, but image-based approaches are often impractical due to the challenges of processing large and complex multi-image datasets and transforming resulting data, such as animals' locations, into geographical coordinates. We demonstrate a new system for studying behaviour in the wild that uses drone-recorded videos and computer vision approaches to automatically track the location and body posture of free-roaming animals in georeferenced coordinates with high spatiotemporal resolution embedded in contemporaneous 3D landscape models of the surrounding area. We provide two worked examples in which we apply this approach to videos of gelada monkeys and multiple species of group-living African ungulates. We demonstrate how to track multiple animals simultaneously, classify individuals by species and age-sex class, estimate individuals' body postures (poses) and extract environmental features, including topography of the landscape and animal trails. By quantifying animal movement and posture while reconstructing a detailed 3D model of the landscape, our approach opens the door to studying the sensory ecology and decision-making of animals within their natural physical and social environments.

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century^1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems^3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics^9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

Scale-sensitivity in the measurement and interpretation of environmental niches

Species environmental niches are central to ecology, evolution, and global change research, but their characterization and interpretation depend on the spatial scale (specifically, the spatial grain) of their measurement. We find that the spatial grain of niche measurement is usually uninformed by ecological processes and varies by orders of magnitude. We illustrate the consequences of this variation for the volume, position, and shape of niche estimates, and discuss how it interacts with geographic range size, habitat specialization, and environmental heterogeneity. Spatial grain significantly affects the study of niche breadth, environmental suitability, niche evolution, niche tracking, and climate change effects. These and other fields will benefit from a more mechanism-informed choice of spatial grain and cross-grain evaluations that integrate different data sources.

Emerging biological archives can reveal ecological and climatic change in Antarctica

Anthropogenic climate change is causing observable changes in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean including increased air and ocean temperatures, glacial melt leading to sea-level rise and a reduction in salinity, and changes to freshwater water availability on land. These changes impact local Antarctic ecosystems and the Earth's climate system. The Antarctic has experienced significant past environmental change, including cycles of glaciation over the Quaternary Period (the past ~2.6 million years). Understanding Antarctica's paleoecosystems, and the corresponding paleoenvironments and climates that have shaped them, provides insight into present day ecosystem change, and importantly, helps constrain model projections of future change. Biological archives such as extant moss beds and peat profiles, biological proxies in lake and marine sediments, vertebrate animal colonies, and extant terrestrial and benthic marine invertebrates, complement other Antarctic paleoclimate archives by recording the nature and rate of past ecological change, the paleoenvironmental drivers of that change, and constrain current ecosystem and climate models. These archives provide invaluable information about terrestrial ice-free areas, a key location for Antarctic biodiversity, and the continental margin which is important for understanding ice sheet dynamics. Recent significant advances in analytical techniques (e.g., genomics, biogeochemical analyses) have led to new applications and greater power in elucidating the environmental records contained within biological archives. Paleoecological and paleoclimate discoveries derived from biological archives, and integration with existing data from other paleoclimate data sources, will significantly expand our understanding of past, present, and future ecological change, alongside climate change, in a unique, globally significant region.

Climate change and extreme events are changing the biology of Polar Regions

Polar landscapes and their unique biodiversity are threatened by climate change. Wild reindeer are cultural and ecological keystone species, traversing across the northern Eurasian Arctic throughout the year (Wild reindeer in the sub-Arctic in Kuhmo, Finland. Photo: Antti Leinonen, Snowchange Cooperative. Used with permission). In contrast, Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is found on islands in the ice (or ocean) which support unique assemblages of plants and animals (King George Island, South Shetlands; photo Andrew Netherwood. Used with permission). This VSI examines how the changing climate threatens these diverse marine and terrestrial habitats and the biodiversity that they support.

Can high-resolution topography and forest canopy structure substitute microclimate measurements? Bryophytes say no

Increasingly available high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) facilitate the use of fine-scale topographic variables as proxies for microclimatic effects not captured by the coarse-grained macroclimate datasets. Species distributions and community assembly rules are, however directly shaped by microclimate and not by topography. DEM-derived topography, sometimes combined with vegetation structure, is thus widely used as a proxy for microclimatic effects in ecological research and conservation applications. However, the suitability of such a strategy has not been evaluated against in situ measured microclimate and species composition. Because bryophytes are highly sensitive to microclimate, they are ideal model organisms for such evaluation. To provide this much needed evaluation, we simultaneously recorded bryophyte species composition, microclimate, and forest vegetation structure at 218 sampling sites distributed across topographically complex sandstone landscape. Using a LiDAR-based DEM with a 1 m resolution, we calculated eleven topographic variables serving as a topographic proxy for microclimate. To characterize vegetation structure, we used hemispherical photographs and LiDAR canopy height models. Finally, we calculated eleven microclimatic variables from a continuous two-year time- series of air and soil temperature and soil moisture. To evaluate topography and vegetation structure as substitutes for the ecological effect of measured microclimate, we partitioned the variation in bryophyte species composition and richness explained by microclimate, topography, and vegetation structure. In situ measured microclimate was clearly the most important driver of bryophyte assemblages in temperate coniferous forests. The most bryophyte-relevant variables were growing degree days, maximum air temperature, and mean soil moisture. Our results thus showed that topographic variables, even when derived from high-resolution LiDAR data and combined with in situ sampled vegetation structure, cannot fully substitute effects of in situ measured microclimate on forest bryophytes.

Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change

A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accounting for microclimates alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. We demonstrate that average maximum temperature during the growing season can differ by 9.9-11.6°C among microclimates less than a meter apart and this microclimate variation might increase by 21% in the future if deeper pools warm less than shallower pools. Accounting for this microclimate variation significantly alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. Predictions that exclude microclimates predict low future occupancy (0.08-0.32) and persistence probabilities (2%-73%) for cold-adapted taxa, and therefore predict decreases in gamma richness and a substantial shift toward warm-adapted taxa in local communities (i.e., thermophilization). However, predictions incorporating microclimates suggest cool locations will remain suitable for cold-adapted taxa in the future, no change in gamma richness, and 825% less thermophilization. Our models also suggest that cool locations will become suitable for warm-adapted taxa and will therefore accumulate biodiversity in the future, which makes cool locations essential for biodiversity conservation. Simulated protection of the 10 coolest microclimates (9% of locations on the landscape) results in a 100% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. In contrast, protecting the 10 currently most biodiverse locations, a commonly employed conservation strategy, results in a 3% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. Our study suggests that we must account for microclimates if we hope to understand the future impacts of climate change and design effective conservation strategies to limit biodiversity loss.

Into the wild-a field study on the evolutionary and ecological importance of thermal plasticity in ectotherms across temperate and tropical regions

Understanding how environmental factors affect the thermal tolerance of species is crucial for predicting the impact of thermal stress on species abundance and distribution. To date, species' responses to thermal stress are typically assessed on laboratory-reared individuals and using coarse, low-resolution, climate data that may not reflect microhabitat dynamics at a relevant scale. Here, we examine the daily temporal variation in heat tolerance in a range of species in their natural environments across temperate and tropical Australia. Individuals were collected in their habitats throughout the day and tested for heat tolerance immediately thereafter, while local microclimates were recorded at the collection sites. We found high levels of plasticity in heat tolerance across all the tested species. Both short- and long-term variability of temperature and humidity affected plastic adjustments of heat tolerance within and across days, but with species differences. Our results reveal that plastic changes in heat tolerance occur rapidly at a daily scale and that environmental factors on a relatively short timescale are important drivers of the observed variation in thermal tolerance. Ignoring such fine-scale physiological processes in distribution models might obscure conclusions about species' range shifts with global climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part 1)'.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Extremes on the Groundwater of Eastern Croatia

This paper analyzes the groundwater in the deep Quaternary aquifer of Eastern Croatia. These waters are collected at the Vinogradi Pumping Station (Osijek, Croatia) for the needs of public water supply. This research aimed to assess the impact of climate extremes, namely, high air temperatures and low rainfall, on the quantity and quality of groundwater. On the basis of data from the Vinogradi Pumping Station in the period 1987–2015, three extremely warm and low-water years were singled out. For these three years, the following were analyzed: climate diagrams, groundwater levels (in the piezometers closest to and farthest from the pumping station), and the quality of the affected groundwater. The results of this research indicate that the reaction of aquifers to the analyzed extreme climatic conditions for the observed period was manifested in the variation of the amplitude of groundwater levels by a maximum of 4–5 m. Considering the total thickness of the affected layers (60–80 m), this variation is not a concern from the point of view of water supply. As for the quality of groundwater, it was found to be of constant quality in its composition and was not affected by climatic extremes.

ForestTemp - Sub-canopy microclimate temperatures of European forests

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately.

Seed dispersal by wind decreases when plants are water-stressed, potentially counteracting species coexistence and niche evolution

Hydrology is a major environmental factor determining plant fitness, and hydrological niche segregation (HNS) has been widely used to explain species coexistence. Nevertheless, the distribution of plant species along hydrological gradients does not only depend on their hydrological niches but also depend on their seed dispersal, with dispersal either weakening or reinforcing the effects of HNS on coexistence. However, it is poorly understood how seed dispersal responds to hydrological conditions. To close this gap, we conducted a common-garden experiment exposing five wind-dispersed plant species (Bellis perennis, Chenopodium album, Crepis sancta, Hypochaeris glabra, and Hypochaeris radicata) to different hydrological conditions. We quantified the effects of hydrological conditions on seed production and dispersal traits, and simulated seed dispersal distances with a mechanistic dispersal model. We found species-specific responses of seed production, seed dispersal traits, and predicted dispersal distances to hydrological conditions. Despite these species-specific responses, there was a general positive relationship between seed production and dispersal distance: Plants growing in favorable hydrological conditions not only produce more seeds but also disperse them over longer distances. This arises mostly because plants growing in favorable environments grow taller and thus disperse their seeds over longer distances. We postulate that the positive relationship between seed production and dispersal may reduce the concentration of each species to the environments favorable for it, thus counteracting species coexistence. Moreover, the resulting asymmetrical gene flow from favorable to stressful habitats may slow down the microevolution of hydrological niches, causing evolutionary niche conservatism. Accounting for context-dependent seed dispersal should thus improve ecological and evolutionary models for the spatial dynamics of plant populations and communities.

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

Consistent trait-environment relationships within and across tundra plant communities

A fundamental assumption in trait-based ecology is that relationships between traits and environmental conditions are globally consistent. We use field-quantified microclimate and soil data to explore if trait-environment relationships are generalizable across plant communities and spatial scales. We collected data from 6,720 plots and 217 species across four distinct tundra regions from both hemispheres. We combined these data with over 76,000 database trait records to relate local plant community trait composition to broad gradients of key environmental drivers: soil moisture, soil temperature, soil pH and potential solar radiation. Results revealed strong, consistent trait-environment relationships across Arctic and Antarctic regions. This indicates that the detected relationships are transferable between tundra plant communities also when fine-scale environmental heterogeneity is accounted for, and that variation in local conditions heavily influences both structural and leaf economic traits. Our results strengthen the biological and mechanistic basis for climate change impact predictions of vulnerable high-latitude ecosystems.

Topographic Wetness Index calculation guidelines based on measured soil moisture and plant species composition

Soil moisture controls environmental processes and species distributions, but it is difficult to measure and interpolate across space. Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) derived from digital elevation model is therefore often used as a proxy for soil moisture. However, different algorithms can be used to calculate TWI and this potentially affects TWI relationship with soil moisture and species assemblages. To disentangle insufficiently-known effects of different algorithms on TWI relation with soil moisture and plant species composition, we measured the root-zone soil moisture throughout a growing season and recorded vascular plants and bryophytes in 45 temperate forest plots. For each plot, we calculated 26 TWI variants from a LiDAR-based digital terrain model and related these TWI variants to the measured soil moisture and moisture-controlled species assemblages of vascular plants and bryophytes. A flow accumulation algorithm determined the ability of the TWI to predict soil moisture, while the flow width and slope algorithms had only a small effects. The TWI calculated with the most often used single-flow D8 algorithm explained less than half of the variation in soil moisture and species composition explained by the TWI calculated with the multiple-flow FD8 algorithm. Flow dispersion used in the FD8 algorithm strongly affected the TWI performance, and a flow dispersion close to 1.0 resulted in the TWI best related to the soil moisture and species assemblages. Using downslope gradient instead of the local slope gradient can strongly decrease TWI performance. Our results clearly showed that the method used to calculate TWI affects study conclusion. However, TWI calculation is often not specified and thus impossible to reproduce and compare among studies. We therefore provide guidelines for TWI calculation and recommend the FD8 flow algorithm with a flow dispersion close to 1.0, flow width equal to the raster cell size and local slope gradient for TWI calculation.

Hot and bothered: The role of behaviour and microclimates in buffering species from rising temperatures

In Focus: Bladon, A. J., Lewis, M., Bladon, E. K., Buckton, S. J., Corbett, S., Ewing, S. R., … Turner, E. C. (2020). How butterflies keep their cool: Physical and ecological traits influence thermoregulatory ability and population trends. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13319 Threatened with rising average temperatures and the new normal of climate extremes, species that cannot keep pace with climate change must adapt where they are, or face extinction. The ranges of many British butterflies have indeed extended northwards as the climate has warmed, but this option is increasingly restricted by the expansion and intensification of urban and agricultural lands. On a day-to-day basis, butterflies can thermoregulate using behaviours such as adjusting their wing positioning or moving into suitable microclimates. The extent to which these two options buffer individuals from free-air temperature, however, is not well known. Nor is the extent to which the different mechanisms are exploited by different species, and whether that has had any bearing on species' population trends over the time-scale of recent climate change. Using a simple and easily replicated approach, Bladon et al. (2020) were able to quantify intra- and interspecific variation in buffering ability, and species' relative reliance on the two thermoregulatory mechanisms of wing adjustment versus microclimate selection. The authors report marked variation in buffering capacity, correlated with wing size, wing colouration and taxonomic family. Species also differed in their thermoregulatory behaviours, with some - such as the Ringlet Aphantopus hyperantus and Large Skipper Ochlodes sylvanus-achieving impressive buffering through wing positioning. Others, like the Brown Argus Aricia agestis and Small Heath Coenonympha pamphilus, were more reliant on microclimate selection, and these were the species most likely to have shown declining population trends over the past 40 years. The study underscores the importance of individual thermoregulatory behaviours for understanding species' vulnerability to climate change. In combination with much improved methods for measuring and modelling climate at biologically relevant scales, the approach of Bladon et al. (2020) can and should be extended to identify the places and species most at risk, and the steps that conservation practitioners can take to maximise resilience to climate change. Much attention has been given to improving habitat connectivity to facilitate range shifts, but we should also consider how microclimate availability can be enhanced to allow species to manage when they cannot move.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020

This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides the latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive assessment (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595-828). The interactive effects between the stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate change are presented within the framework of the Montreal Protocol and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect the atmosphere and air quality; human health; terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; and materials used in outdoor construction, solar energy technologies, and fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from changes in seasonality and extreme events due to climate change. Additionally, we assess the transmission and environmental effects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of linkages with solar UV radiation and the Montreal Protocol.

The problem of scale in predicting biological responses to climate

Many analyses of biological responses to climate rely on gridded climate data derived from weather stations, which differ from the conditions experienced by organisms in at least two respects. First, the microclimate recorded by a weather station is often quite different to that near the ground surface, where many organisms live. Second, the temporal and spatial resolutions of gridded climate datasets derived from weather stations are often too coarse to capture the conditions experienced by organisms. Temporally and spatially coarse data have clear benefits in terms of reduced model size and complexity, but here we argue that coarse-grained data introduce errors that, in biological studies, are too often ignored. However, in contrast to common perception, these errors are not necessarily caused directly by a spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected. Rather, errors and biases are primarily due to (a) systematic discrepancies between the climate used in analysis and that experienced by organisms under study; and (b) the non-linearity of most biological responses in combination with differences in climate variance between locations and time periods for which models are fitted and those for which projections are made. We discuss when exactly problems of scale can be expected to arise and highlight the potential to circumvent these by spatially and temporally down-scaling climate. We also suggest ways in which adjustments to deal with issues of scale could be made without the need to run high-resolution models over wide extents.

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

Bryophytes tend to be sensitive to warming, but their high dispersal ability could help them track climate change. Here the authors combine correlative niche models and mechanistic dispersal models for 40 European bryophyte species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, finding that most of these species are unlikely to track climate change over the coming decades.

On the importance of getting fine-scale temperature records near any surface

The SoilTemp database will identify the microhabitats that best buffer the amplitude of warming. The temperature heterogeneity at spatial scales below the meter also requires attention. A worldwide database of temperatures near any surface is still lacking. This article is a Commentary on Lembrechts et al., 26, 6616-6629.

SoilTemp: A global database of near-surface temperature

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.

There is plenty of room at the bottom: microclimates drive insect vulnerability to climate change

Climate warming impacts biological systems profoundly. Climatologists deliver predictions about warming amplitude at coarse scales. Nevertheless, insects are small, and it remains unclear how much of the warming at coarse scales appears in the microclimates where they live. We propose a simple method for determining the pertinent spatial scale of insect microclimates. Recent studies have quantified the ability of forest understory to buffer thermal extremes, but these microclimates typically are characterized at spatial scales much larger than those determined by our method. Indeed, recent evidence supports the idea that insects can be thermally adapted even to fine scale microclimatic patterns, which can be highly variable. Finally, we discuss how microhabitat surfaces may buffer or magnify the amplitude of climate warming.

Microclimatic conditions anywhere at any time!

Maclean (Glob. Change. Biol 10.1111/gcb.14876, 2019) presents the methods for providing fine-grained, hourly estimates of current and future microclimate over decadal timescales. In this commentary, we argue that this paper is the start of a paradigm shift, in which microclimate data will be available anywhere and at any time. Things will get even better for the future of spatial ecology if we combine the mechanistic models from Maclean with a global geo-database of in situ microclimatic measurements. This article is a commentary on Maclean, 26, 1003-1011.

Integrating dynamic environmental predictors and species occurrences: Toward true dynamic species distribution models

While biological distributions are not static and change/evolve through space and time, nonstationarity of climatic and land-use conditions is frequently neglected in species distribution models. Even recent techniques accounting for spatiotemporal variation of species occurrence basically consider the environmental predictors as static; specifically, in most studies using species distribution models, predictor values are averaged over a 50- or 30-year time period. This could lead to a strong bias due to monthly/annual variation between the climatic conditions in which species' locations were recorded and those used to develop species distribution models or even a complete mismatch if locations have been recorded more recently. Moreover, the impact of land-use change has only recently begun to be fully explored in species distribution models, but again without considering year-specific values. Excluding dynamic climate and land-use predictors could provide misleading estimation of species distribution. In recent years, however, open-access spatially explicit databases that provide high-resolution monthly and annual variation in climate (for the period 1901-2016) and land-use (for the period 1992-2015) conditions at a global scale have become available. Combining species locations collected in a given month of a given year with the relative climatic and land-use predictors derived from these datasets would thus lead to the development of true dynamic species distribution models (D-SDMs), improving predictive accuracy and avoiding mismatch between species locations and predictor variables. Thus, we strongly encourage modelers to develop D-SDMs using month- and year-specific climatic data as well as year-specific land-use data that match the period in which species data were collected.