Reporting guidelines for terrestrial respirometry: Building openness, transparency of metabolic rate and evaporative water loss data

Respirometry is an important tool for understanding whole-animal energy and water balance in relation to the environment. Consequently, the growing number of studies using respirometry over the last decade warrants reliable reporting and data sharing for effective dissemination and research synthesis. We provide a checklist guideline on five key sections to facilitate the transparency, reproducibility, and replicability of respirometry studies: 1) materials, set up, plumbing, 2) subject conditions/maintenance, 3) measurement conditions, 4) data processing, and 5) data reporting and statistics, each with explanations and example studies. Transparency in reporting and data availability has benefits on multiple fronts. Authors can use this checklist to design and report on their study, and reviewers and editors can use the checklist to assess the reporting quality of the manuscripts they review. Improved standards for reporting will enhance the value of primary studies and will greatly facilitate the ability to carry out higher quality research syntheses to address ecological and evolutionary theories.

The role of species thermal plasticity for alien species invasibility in a changing climate: A case study of Lophocladia trichoclados

The Mediterranean Sea provides fertile ground for understanding the complex interplay between invasive species and native habitats, particularly within the context of climate change. This thermal tolerance study reveals the remarkable ability of Lophocladia trichoclados, a red algae species that has proven highly invasive, to adapt to varying temperatures, particularly thriving in colder Mediterranean waters, where it can withstand temperatures as low as 14 °C, a trait not observed in its native habitat. This rapid acclimation, occurring in less than a century, might entail a trade-off with high temperature resistance. Additionally, all sampled populations in the Mediterranean share the same haplotype, suggesting a common origin and the possibility that we might be facing an exceptionally acclimatable and invasive strain. This high degree of acclimatability could determine the future spread capacity in a changing scenario, highlighting the importance of considering both acclimation and adaptation in understanding the expansion of invasive species' ranges.

Establishing the distribution of Carpophilus truncatus in Australia using an integrative approach for an emerging global pest

The nitidulid beetle Carpophilus truncatus is rapidly becoming a major pest of nut crops around the world. This insect first infested Australian almonds in 2013 and has since escalated to be the preeminent insect pest for the industry. Data pertaining to C. truncatus distribution are scant, but without awareness of its origin, distribution, and ecological factors that influence distribution, efforts to understand and manage the insect as a pest are stymied. Here, we employ an integrative approach to gain a multifaceted understanding of the distribution of C. truncatus in Australia. Methods employed were (1) reviewing historical records in insect collections to establish the presence of C. truncatus prior to commercial almond horticulture, (2) field trapping of insects to establish presence in regions of interest, (3) laboratory trials to determine the thermal limits of the organism, and (4) correlative species distribution modelling to describe its current distribution. We find that C. truncatus is more widespread across Australia than was previously known, with historical records preceding commercial almond production in Australia by a century. The methods developed in this study can be applied elsewhere in the world where C. truncatus is an emerging pest, or to novel pest species as they arise with increasing frequency in a globalised and warming world.

Integrating adult occurrence and reproduction data to identify conservation measures for amphibians

Monitoring programs are pivotal to establishing sound management. Due to economic, logistic, and time limitations, monitoring programs often overlook differences among life-history stages. However, species occurrence does not necessarily mean population viability, and it is unclear to what extent monitoring programs that do not consider separately adult presence and reproduction provide effective management indications. Unfortunately, collecting data on certain life stages requires high sampling effort, leading to a trade-off between model reliability and resources needed for monitoring. We collected data on presence and reproduction of amphibians by monitoring 207 waterbodies in Lombardy (northern Italy) in 2017-2022. We then used multistate occupancy models to test whether certain environmental features, namely, pond area, hydroperiod, forest cover, shade, aquatic vegetation, and predators' presence, differentially affected adult occurrence and breeding probabilities of multiple amphibian species. To assess optimal sampling efforts, we modeled the detection probabilities of adults and reproduction across multiple species. Finally, we identified the optimal monitoring strategy under different scenarios of resource availability, comparing adult-only monitoring versus joint assessment of the occurrence of adults and reproduction. In many cases, the main drivers of adult occurrence and reproduction did not coincide because most investigated ecological variables affected one life stage or the other. Forest area, for instance, increased occurrence probabilities of adults of the endemic Rana latastei but showed no effect on their reproduction probabilities. Quantitative estimates of the sampling effort showed that occurrence of adults was easier to spot in 4 out of 7 species. Multicriteria decision analyses showed that when resources were scarce, monitoring adults was the optimal strategy for those 4 species. Conversely, with more resources, monitoring both adults and reproduction emerged as the best strategy for all the considered species. Integrated monitoring of adults and reproduction is essential to comprehensively identify effective conservation measures for amphibians.

Physiologically-informed predictions of climate warming effects on native and non-native populations of blue catfish

Blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus has been widely introduced throughout the United States to enhance recreational fisheries. Its success in both its native and non-native range, especially in the context of climate change, will be influenced by its thermal performance. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate the responses of wild-captured, subadult blue catfish to temperatures ranging from 7 °C to 38 °C. Blue catfish had relatively low standard metabolic rates, indicating low energetic demands, and hence an ability to survive well even during low-food conditions. Metabolic scope and food consumption rate increased with temperature, with metabolic scope peaking at 29.1 °C, and consumption rate peaking at 32 °C. Body condition remained high up to 32 °C, but decreased drastically thereafter, suggesting limitations in maintaining metabolism through food consumption at temperatures >32 °C; blue catfish cannot survive in such habitats indefinitely. Yet, many fish were able to survive temperatures as high as 38 °C for 5 days, suggesting that acute and occasionally chronic heat waves will not limit this species. Using these results, we also predicted the performance of blue catfish under prevailing conditions and under climate warming at seven locations throughout their current range in the U.S. We found that some blue catfish populations in southern and southeastern areas will likely experience temperatures above the optimal temperature for extended periods due to climate change, thus limiting potential habitat availability for this species. But, many non-native populations, especially those in northern areas such as Idaho, North Dakota, and northern California, may benefit from the expected warmer temperatures during spring and fall.

The vulnerability of sharks, skates, and rays to ocean deoxygenation: Physiological mechanisms, behavioral responses, and ecological impacts

Levels of dissolved oxygen in open ocean and coastal waters are decreasing (ocean deoxygenation), with poorly understood effects on marine megafauna. All of the more than 1000 species of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays) are obligate water breathers, with a variety of life-history strategies and oxygen requirements. This review demonstrates that although many elasmobranchs typically avoid hypoxic water, they also appear capable of withstanding mild to moderate hypoxia with changes in activity, ventilatory responses, alterations to circulatory and hematological parameters, and morphological alterations to gill structures. However, such strategies may be insufficient to withstand severe, progressive, or prolonged hypoxia or anoxia where anaerobic metabolic pathways may be used for limited periods. As water temperatures increase with climate warming, ectothermic elasmobranchs will exhibit elevated metabolic rates and are likely to be less able to tolerate the effects of even mild hypoxia associated with deoxygenation. As a result, sustained hypoxic conditions in warmer coastal or surface-pelagic waters are likely to lead to shifts in elasmobranch distributions. Mass mortalities of elasmobranchs linked directly to deoxygenation have only rarely been observed but are likely underreported. One key concern is how reductions in habitat volume as a result of expanding hypoxia resulting from deoxygenation will influence interactions between elasmobranchs and industrial fisheries. Catch per unit of effort of threatened pelagic sharks by longline fisheries, for instance, has been shown to be higher above oxygen minimum zones compared to adjacent, normoxic regions, and attributed to vertical habitat compression of sharks overlapping with increased fishing effort. How a compound stressor such as marine heatwaves alters vulnerability to deoxygenation remains an open question. With over a third of elasmobranch species listed as endangered, a priority for conservation and management now lies in understanding and mitigating ocean deoxygenation effects in addition to population declines already occurring from overfishing.

Collective effects of rising average temperatures and heat events on oviparous embryos

Survival of the immobile embryo in response to rising temperature is important to determine a species' vulnerability to climate change. However, the collective effects of 2 key thermal characteristics associated with climate change (i.e., rising average temperature and acute heat events) on embryonic survival remain largely unexplored. We used empirical measurements and niche modeling to investigate how chronic and acute heat stress independently and collectively influence the embryonic survival of lizards across latitudes. We collected and bred lizards from 5 latitudes and incubated their eggs across a range of temperatures to quantify population-specific responses to chronic and acute heat stress. Using an embryonic development model parameterized with measured embryonic heat tolerances, we further identified a collective impact of embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerances on embryonic survival. We also incorporated embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerance in hybrid species distribution models to determine species' range shifts under climate change. Embryos' tolerance of chronic heat (T-chronic) remained consistent across latitudes, whereas their tolerance of acute heat (T-acute) was higher at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Tolerance of acute heat exerted a more pronounced influence than tolerance of chronic heat. In species distribution models, climate change led to the most significant habitat loss for each population and species in its low-latitude distribution. Consequently, habitat for populations across all latitudes will shift toward high latitudes. Our study also highlights the importance of considering embryonic survival under chronic and acute heat stresses to predict species' vulnerability to climate change.

Identifying the abiotic factors that determine the inland range limits of a mesic-adapted lizard species

For most species, the factors that determine geographical range limits are unknown. In mesic-adapted species, populations occurring near the edge of the species' distribution provide ideal study systems to investigate what limits distributional ranges. We aimed to identify the abiotic constraints that preclude an east-Australian mesic-adapted lizard (Lampropholis delicata) from occupying arid environments. We performed lizard surveys at sites spanning an elevation/aridity gradient (380-1070 m) and measured the prevalence of habitat features (logs, rocks, leaf litter, bare ground, solar radiation) in addition to hourly temperatures in a variety of microhabitats available to lizards. Species distribution models (SDM) were used to identify the macroclimatic variables limiting the species' distribution. At its inland range limit, L. delicata is associated with mesic high-elevation forests with complex microhabitat structures, which gradually decline in availability toward lower (and more arid) elevations where the species is absent. Moreover, L. delicata is absent from sites with a shallow leaf litter layer, in which daily temperatures exceed the species' thermal preference range, which we determined in a laboratory thermal gradient. In regards to macroclimate, SDM revealed that temperature seasonality is the primary variable predicting the species' distribution, suggesting that L. delicata avoids inland areas owing to their high annual thermal variability. By combining multiple lines of evidence, this research highlights that habitat and microclimate suitability-not solely macroclimate suitability-are important range-limiting factors for mesic ectotherms and should be incorporated in studies addressing range-limiting hypotheses.

Refining Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) distribution models: a comparison of current methods to an established protocol

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) pose an enormous public health risk in eastern North America as the vector responsible for transmitting 7 human pathogens, including those causing the most common vector-borne disease in the United States, Lyme disease. Species distribution modeling is an increasingly popular method for predicting the potential distribution and subsequent risk of blacklegged ticks, however, the development of such models thus far is highly variable and would benefit from the use of standardized protocols. To identify where standardized protocols would most benefit current distribution models, we completed the "Overview, Data, Model, Assessment, and Prediction" (ODMAP) distribution modeling protocol for 21 publications reporting 22 blacklegged tick distribution models. We calculated an average adherence of 73.4% (SD ± 29%). Most prominently, we found that authors could better justify and connect their selection of variables and associated spatial scales to blacklegged tick ecology. In addition, the authors could provide clearer descriptions of model development, including checks for multicollinearity, spatial autocorrelation, and plausibility. Finally, authors could improve their reporting of variable effects to avoid undermining the models' utility in informing species-environment relationships. To enhance future model rigor and reproducibility, we recommend utilizing several resources including the ODMAP protocol, and suggest that journals make protocol compliance a publication prerequisite.

Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea

Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m-3 and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m-3) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.

Effects of Physiological Status and Environmental Factors on the Lure Responses of Three Pest Fruit Fly Species (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Biotic and abiotic factors influence how insects respond to stimuli. This can make it challenging to interpret captures in traps used to monitor pest abundance in management programmes. To address this, the lure response of three pest fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) was evaluated in a semi-field setting with respect to several physiological and environmental factors. Using standardised methods with known fly numbers in field cages, the response to Biolure (food-based lure) was evaluated for Ceratitis capitata, Ceratitis cosyra and Bactrocera dorsalis. Response to the male lures was tested: E.G.O PheroLure for C. capitata and C. cosyra, Trimedlure for C. capitata, and methyl eugenol for B. dorsalis. The physiological variables evaluated were fly age, sex, weight, and total body nutritional composition. The environmental effects of temperature, relative humidity and light intensity were also assessed. Protein-deprived adults responded more strongly to Biolure. The response to Biolure was not sex-specific. Fly age influenced the response of all species to all tested lures. However, this effect was species and lure specific. Temperature was the most influential environmental factor, with response generally increasing with temperature. Lower thresholds for lure response, despite the proximity of responsive flies, range from 12.21 to 22.95 °C depending on the species and lure tested. These results indicate that trapping systems and management activity thresholds must take physiological and environmental variation into account to increase their accuracy.

Melanin-based color variation in response to changing climates in snakes

Melanism, the process of heavier melanin deposition, can interact with climate variation at both micro and macro scales, ultimately influencing color evolution in organisms. While the ecological processes regulating melanin production in relation to climate have been extensively studied, intraspecific variations of melanism are seldom considered. Such scientific gap hampers our understanding of how species adapt to rapidly changing climates. For example, dark coloration may lead to higher heat absorption and be advantageous in cool climates, but also in hot environments as a UV or antimicrobial protection mechanism. To disentangle such opposing predictions, here we examined the effect of climate on shaping melanism variation in 150 barred grass snakes (Natrix helvetica) and 383 green whip snakes (Hierophis viridiflavus) across Italy. By utilizing melanistic morphs (charcoal and picturata in N. helvetica, charcoal and abundistic in H. viridiflavus) and compiling observations from 2002 to 2021, we predicted that charcoal morphs in H. viridiflavus would optimize heat absorption in cold environments, while offering protection from excessive UV radiation in N. helvetica within warm habitats; whereas picturata and abundistic morphs would thrive in humid environments, which naturally have a denser vegetation and wetter substrates producing darker ambient light, thus providing concealment advantages. While picturata and abundistic morphs did not align with our initial humidity expectations, the charcoal morph in N. helvetica is associated with UV environments, suggesting protection mechanisms against damaging solar radiation. H. viridiflavus is associated with high precipitations, which might offer antimicrobial protection. Overall, our results provide insights into the correlations between melanin-based color morphs and climate variables in snake populations. While suggestive of potential adaptive responses, future research should delve deeper into the underlying mechanisms regulating this relationship.

Phylogenetic conservatism and coordination in traits of Chinese woody endemic flora

Range-limited endemic species, often labeled as endangered due to their low adaptability to climate change, exhibit unclear evolutionary mechanisms influencing their distribution. This study explores the relationship between leaf length, maximum height, and seed diameter and their linkage to phylogeny and climate in the macroecology of 1,370 woody endemics. Using Bayesian analytical method that allows partitioning phylogenetic and environmental variances and covariance, we revealed moderate to high phylogenetic signals in these traits, indicating evolutionary constraints potentially impacting climate change adaptability. The study uncovered a phylogenetically conserved coordination between height and leaf length which showed to be independent of macroecological patterns of temperature and precipitation. These findings emphasize the role of phylogenetic ancestry in shaping the distribution of woody endemics, highlighting the need for prioritized in-situ conservation and providing insights for ex situ conservation strategies.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Humidity and temperature preference in two Neotropical species of sand flies

BACKGROUND

Arthropods vector a multitude of human disease-causing organisms, and their geographic ranges are shifting rapidly in response to changing climatic conditions. This is, in turn, altering the landscape of disease risk for human populations that are brought into novel contact with the vectors and the diseases they carry. Sand flies in the genera Lutzomyia and Pintomyia are vectors of serious disease-causing agents such as Leishmania (the etiological agent of leishmaniasis) and may be expanding their range in the face of climate change. Understanding the climatic conditions that vector species both tolerate physiologically and prefer behaviorally is critical to predicting the direction and magnitude of range expansions and the resulting impacts on human health. Temperature and humidity are key factors that determine the geographic extent of many arthropods, including vector species.

METHODS

We characterized the habitat of two species of sand flies, Lutzomyia longipalpis and Pintomyia evansi. Additionally, we studied two behavioral factors of thermal fitness-thermal and humidity preference in two species of sand flies alongside a key aspect of physiological tolerance-desiccation resistance.

RESULTS

We found that Lu. longipalpis is found at cooler and drier conditions than Pi. evansi. Our results also show significant interspecific differences in both behavioral traits, with Pi. evansi preferring warmer, more humid conditions than Lu. longipalpis. Finally, we found that Lu. longipalpis shows greater tolerance to extreme low humidity, and that this is especially pronounced in males of the species.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results suggest that temperature and humidity conditions are key aspects of the climatic niche of Lutzomyia and Pintomyia sand flies and underscore the value of integrative studies of climatic tolerance and preference in vector biology.

Climatically robust multiscale species distribution models to support pronghorn recovery in California

We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in California now and into the future. We used a consensus approach to identify areas of suitable climate now and future for pronghorn in California. We compared the results of climate models from two separate hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state. Under the migration hypothesis, pronghorn were expected to be limited climatically by extreme cold in winter and extreme heat in summer; under the niche reduction hypothesis, historical pronghorn of distribution would have better represented the climatic limitations of the species. We combined occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat suitability models: (1) an ensemble model using random forests, Maxent, classification and regression Trees, and a generalized linear model; (2) a step selection function; and (3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate the prospects of, pronghorn recovery. Climate suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that there will be no suitable climate in California in the future. Under the niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand. Habitat suitability also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among all three models exist in large patches throughout the state. Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multimethod, multihypothesis approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and, perhaps more importantly, fill critical knowledge gaps that could resolve disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout the arid Southwest.

Fitting individual-based models of spatial population dynamics to long-term monitoring data

Generating spatial predictions of species distribution is a central task for research and policy. Currently, correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) are among the most widely used tools for this purpose. However, a fundamental assumption of cSDMs, that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment, is rarely fulfilled in real data and limits the applicability of cSDMs for dynamic projections. Process-based, dynamic SDMs (dSDMs) promise to overcome these limitations as they explicitly represent transient dynamics and enhance spatiotemporal transferability. Software tools for implementing dSDMs are becoming increasingly available, but their parameter estimation can be complex. Here, we test the feasibility of calibrating and validating a dSDM using long-term monitoring data of Swiss red kites (Milvus milvus). This population has shown strong increases in abundance and a progressive range expansion over the last decades, indicating a nonequilibrium situation. We construct an individual-based model using the RangeShiftR modeling platform and use Bayesian inference for model calibration. This allows the integration of heterogeneous data sources, such as parameter estimates from published literature and observational data from monitoring schemes, with a coherent assessment of parameter uncertainty. Our monitoring data encompass counts of breeding pairs at 267 sites across Switzerland over 22 years. We validate our model using a spatial-block cross-validation scheme and assess predictive performance with a rank-correlation coefficient. Our model showed very good predictive accuracy of spatial projections and represented well the observed population dynamics over the last two decades. Results suggest that reproductive success was a key factor driving the observed range expansion. According to our model, the Swiss red kite population fills large parts of its current range but has potential for further increases in density. We demonstrate the practicality of data integration and validation for dSDMs using RangeShiftR. This approach can improve predictive performance compared to cSDMs. The workflow presented here can be adopted for any population for which some prior knowledge on demographic and dispersal parameters as well as spatiotemporal observations of abundance or presence/absence are available. The fitted model provides improved quantitative insights into the ecology of a species, which can greatly aid conservation and management efforts.

Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change

The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.

Spatiotemporal variation in ecophysiological traits align with high resolution niche modelling in the short-range banded ironstone endemic Aluta quadrata

Defining plant ecophysiological responses across natural distributions enables a greater understanding of the niche that plants occupy. Much of the foundational knowledge of species' ecology and responses to environmental change across their distribution is often lacking, particularly for rare and threatened species, exacerbating management and conservation challenges. Combining high-resolution species distribution models (SDMs) with ecophysiological monitoring characterized the spatiotemporal variation in both plant traits and their interactions with their surrounding environment for the range-restricted Aluta quadrata Rye & Trudgen, and a common, co-occurring generalist, Eremophila latrobei subsp. glabra (L.S.Sm.) Chinnock., from the semi-arid Pilbara and Gascoyne region in northwest Western Australia. The plants reflected differences in gas exchange, plant health and plant water relations at sites with contrasting suitability from the SDM, with higher performance measured in the SDM-predicted high-suitability site. Seasonal differences demonstrated the highest variation across ecophysiological traits in both species, with higher performance in the austral wet season across all levels of habitat suitability. The results of this study allow us to effectively describe how plant performance in A. quadrata is distributed across the landscape in contrast to a common, widespread co-occurring species and demonstrate a level of confidence in the habitat suitability modelling derived from the SDM in predicting plant function determined through intensive ecophysiology monitoring programmes. In addition, the findings also provide a baseline approach for future conservation actions, as well as to explore the mechanisms underpinning the short-range endemism arid zone systems.

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Temperature-dependent dispersal and ectotherm species' distributions in a warming world

Dispersal is a crucial component of species' responses to climate warming. Warming-induced changes in species' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species' distributions. Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement. I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature-dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming-induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits. Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within-patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature-dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation. Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments.

Fitness surfaces and local thermal adaptation in Drosophila along a latitudinal gradient

Local adaptation is commonly cited to explain species distribution, but how fitness varies along continuous geographical gradients is not well understood. Here, we combine thermal biology and life-history theory to demonstrate that Drosophila populations along a 2500 km latitudinal cline are adapted to local conditions. We measured how heat tolerance and viability rate across eight populations varied with temperature in the laboratory and then simulated their expected cumulative Darwinian fitness employing high-resolution temperature data from their eight collection sites. Simulations indicate a trade-off between annual survival and cumulative viability, as both mortality and the recruitment of new flies are predicted to increase in warmer regions. Importantly, populations are locally adapted and exhibit the optimal combination of both traits to maximize fitness where they live. In conclusion, our method is able to reconstruct fitness surfaces employing empirical life-history estimates and reconstructs peaks representing locally adapted populations, allowing us to study geographic adaptation in silico.

Predicting the dispersal and invasion dynamics of ambrosia beetles through demographic reconstruction and process-explicit modeling

Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America. We used Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff 1868 as a study subject and estimated its demography in the laboratory in a temperature gradient (17, 20, 26, 29, 35 °C), which we then used to parameterize a process-based model to estimate its metapopulation dynamics. The maximum intrinsic growth rate of X. bispinatus is 0.13 with a thermal optimum of 26.2 °C. The models suggest important regions for the establishment and dispersal the states of Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca (high host and secondary vectors diversity), the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (connectivity region), and Michoacán and Jalisco (important avocado plantations). The use of hybrid process-based models is a promising tool to refine the predictions applied to the study of biological invasions and species distributions.

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes.

METHODS

We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models.

KEY RESULTS

All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

Diurnal temperature variation impacts energetics but not reproductive effort across seasons in a temperate dung beetle

Temperature varies on multiple timescales and ectotherms must adjust to these changes to survive. These adjustments may lead to energetic trade-offs between self-maintenance and reproductive investment. However, we know little about how diurnal and seasonal temperature changes impact energy allocation. Here we used a combination of empirical data and modeling of both thermoregulatory behaviors and body temperature to examine potential energetic trade-offs in the dung beetle Onthophagus taurus. Beginning in March 2020, universities and laboratories were officially closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We thus performed experiments at a private residence near Knoxville, Tennessee, USA, leveraging the heating, ventilation and air conditioning of the home to manipulate temperature and compare beetle responses to stable indoor temperatures versus variable outdoor temperatures. We collected O. taurus beetles in the early-, mid-, and late-breeding seasons to examine energetics and reproductive output in relation to diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations. We recorded the mass of field fresh beetles before and after a 24-h fast and used the resulting change in mass as a proxy for energetic costs of self-maintenance across seasons. To understand the impacts of diurnal fluctuations on energy allocation, we held beetles either indoors or outdoors for 14-day acclimation trials, fed them cow dung, and recorded mass change and reproductive output. Utilizing biophysical models, we integrated individual-level biophysical characteristics, microhabitat-specific performance, respirometry data, and thermoregulatory behaviors to predict temperature-induced changes to the allocation of energy toward survival and reproduction. During 24 h of outdoor fasting, we found that beetles experiencing reduced temperature variation lost more mass than those experiencing greater temperature variation, and this was not affected by season. By contrast, during the 14-day acclimation trials, we found that beetles experiencing reduced temperature variation (i.e., indoors) gained more mass than those experiencing greater temperature variation (i.e., outdoors). This effect may have been driven by shifts in the metabolism of the beetles during acclimation to increased temperature variation. Despite the negative relationship between temperature variation and energetic reserves, the only significant predictor of reproductive output was mean temperature. Taken together, we find that diurnal temperature fluctuations are important for driving energetics, but not reproductive output.

Predicting the future of our oceans-Evaluating genomic forecasting approaches in marine species

Climate change is restructuring biodiversity on multiple scales and there is a pressing need to understand the downstream ecological and genomic consequences of this change. Recent advancements in the field of eco-evolutionary genomics have sought to include evolutionary processes in forecasting species' responses to climate change (e.g., genomic offset), but to date, much of this work has focused on terrestrial species. Coastal and offshore species, and the fisheries they support, may be even more vulnerable to climate change than their terrestrial counterparts, warranting a critical appraisal of these approaches in marine systems. First, we synthesize knowledge about the genomic basis of adaptation in marine species, and then we discuss the few examples where genomic forecasting has been applied in marine systems. Next, we identify the key challenges in validating genomic offset estimates in marine species, and we advocate for the inclusion of historical sampling data and hindcasting in the validation phase. Lastly, we describe a workflow to guide marine managers in incorporating these predictions into the decision-making process.

Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change

As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.

Rapid adaptation of cellular metabolic rate to the MicroRNA complements of mammals and its relevance to the evolution of endothermy

The metabolic efficiency of mammalian cells depends on the attenuation of intrinsic translation noise by microRNAs. We devised a metric of cellular metabolic rate (cMR), rMR/Mexp optimally fit to the number of microRNA families (mirFam), that is robust to variation in mass and sensitive to body temperature (Tb), consistent with the heat dissipation limit theory of Speakman and Król (2010). Using mirFam as predictor, an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process of stabilizing selection, with an adaptive shift at the divergence of Boreoeutheria, accounted for 95% of the variation in cMR across mammals. Branchwise rates of evolution of cMR, mirFam and Tb concurrently increased 6- to 7-fold at the divergence of Boreoeutheria, independent of mass. Cellular MR variation across placental mammals was also predicted by the sum of model conserved microRNA-target interactions, revealing an unexpected degree of integration of the microRNA-target apparatus into the energy economy of the mammalian cell.

Spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton community succession and characteristics of realized niches in Lake Taihu, China

Understanding the dynamics and succession of phytoplankton in large lakes can help inform future lake management. The study analyzed phytoplankton community variations in Lake Taihu over a 21-year period, focusing on realized niches and their impact on succession. The study developed a niche periodic table with 32 niches, revealing responses to environmental factors and the optimal number of niches. Results showed that the phytoplankton in Lake Taihu showed significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with biomass decreasing as one moved from the northwest to the southeast and expanding towards central lake area, and towards autumn and winter. Different phytoplankton groups in Lake Taihu occupied realized niches shaped by temperature, nitrate, and phosphate. To predict the response of eutrophic freshwater lake ecosystems to human activities and climate change, it is critical to interpret the law of phytoplankton bloom and niche succession.

Role of climatic variability in shaping intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance in Mediterranean water beetles

The climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) predicts that organisms in more thermally variable environments have wider thermal breadths and higher thermal plasticity than those from more stable environments. However, due to evolutionary trade-offs, taxa with greater absolute thermal limits may have little plasticity of such limits (trade-off hypothesis). The CVH assumes that climatic variability is the ultimate driver of thermal tolerance variation across latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, but average temperature also varies along such gradients. We explored intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance in three typical Mediterranean saline water beetles (families Hydrophilidae and Dytiscidae). For each species, we compared two populations where the species coexist, with similar annual mean temperature but contrasting thermal variability (continental vs. coastal population). We estimated thermal limits of adults from each population, previously acclimated at 17, 20, or 25 °C. We found species-specific patterns but overall, our results agree with the CVH regarding thermal ranges, which were wider in the continental (more variable) population. In the two hydrophilid species, this came at the cost of losing plasticity of the upper thermal limit in this population, supporting the trade-off hypothesis, but not in the dytiscid one. Our results support the role of local adaptation to thermal variability and trade-offs between basal tolerance and physiological plasticity in shaping thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms, but also suggest that intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance does not fit a general pattern among aquatic insects. Overlooking such intraspecific variation could lead to inaccurate predictions of the vulnerability of aquatic insects to global warming.

Climate change and the presence of invasive species will threaten the persistence of the Mediterranean seagrass community

The Mediterranean Sea has been experiencing rapid increases in temperature and salinity triggering its tropicalization. Additionally, its connection with the Red Sea has been favouring the establishment of non-native species. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted climate change and the introduction of invasive seagrass species (Halophila stipulacea) on the native Mediterranean seagrass community (Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa) by applying a novel ecological and spatial model with different configurations and parameter settings based on a Cellular Automata (CA). The proposed models use a discrete (stepwise) representation of space and time by executing deterministic and probabilistic rules that develop complex dynamic processes. Model applications were run under two climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) projected from 2020 to 2100 in four different regions within the Mediterranean. Results indicate that the slow-growing P. oceanica will be highly vulnerable to climate change, suffering vast declines in its abundance. However, the results also show that western and colder areas of the Mediterranean Sea might represent refuge areas for this species. Cymodocea nodosa has been reported to exhibit resilience to predicted climate scenarios; however, it has shown habitat regression in the warmest predicted regions in the easternmost part of the basin. Our models indicate that H. stipulacea will thrive under projected climate scenarios, facilitating its spread across the basin. Also, H. stipulacea grew at the expense of C. nodosa, limiting the distribution of the latter, and eventually displacing this native species. Additionally, simulations demonstrated that areas from which P. oceanica meadows disappear would be partially covered by C. nodosa and H. stipulacea. These outcomes project that the Mediterranean seagrass community will experience a transition from long-lived, large and slow-growing species to small and fast-growing species as climate change progresses.

Environmental predictors for the restoration of a critically endangered coral, Acropora palmata, along the Florida reef tract

The population decline and lack of natural recovery of multiple coral species along the Florida reef tract have instigated the expanding application of coral restoration and conservation efforts. Few studies, however, have determined the optimal locations for the survival of outplanted coral colonies from restoration nurseries. This study predicts the optimal locations for Acropora palmata colonies along the Florida reef tract using a boosted-regression-tree model to examine the relationships between the occurrence of wild A. palmata and ten environmental variables. Our model results predicted A. palmata was most likely to occur in shallow reef habitats with (i) generally low mean chlorophyll-a concentrations (< 1 mg m-3), (ii) moderate fetch (3 kJ m-2), (iii) salinities between 20 and 37.5 ppt, (iv) temperatures between 20 and 32°C, (vi) low mean concentrations of total nitrogen (0.16 ppm), and (iv) irradiance between 26.5 and 53.5 mol m-2 s-1. The most suitable habitats for A. palmata were disproportionately allocated to reefs in Biscayne Bay, the Upper Keys, the western-lower Florida Keys, the Marquesas, and the Dry Tortugas. The middle Florida Keys had unfavorable environmental conditions for A. palmata habitat. Results from this study inform where A. palmata, outplanted as part of restoration and conservation efforts, would have suitable environmental conditions to persist over time. This study also provides decision-making support for management focused on the conservation and restoration of the endangered species A. palmata along the Florida reef tract.

A century of exercise physiology: concepts that ignited the study of human thermoregulation. Part 3: Heat and cold tolerance during exercise

In this third installment of our four-part historical series, we evaluate contributions that shaped our understanding of heat and cold stress during occupational and athletic pursuits. Our first topic concerns how we tolerate, and sometimes fail to tolerate, exercise-heat stress. By 1900, physical activity with clothing- and climate-induced evaporative impediments led to an extraordinarily high incidence of heat stroke within the military. Fortunately, deep-body temperatures > 40 °C were not always fatal. Thirty years later, water immersion and patient treatments mimicking sweat evaporation were found to be effective, with the adage of cool first, transport later being adopted. We gradually acquired an understanding of thermoeffector function during heat storage, and learned about challenges to other regulatory mechanisms. In our second topic, we explore cold tolerance and intolerance. By the 1930s, hypothermia was known to reduce cutaneous circulation, particularly at the extremities, conserving body heat. Cold-induced vasodilatation hindered heat conservation, but it was protective. Increased metabolic heat production followed, driven by shivering and non-shivering thermogenesis, even during exercise and work. Physical endurance and shivering could both be compromised by hypoglycaemia. Later, treatments for hypothermia and cold injuries were refined, and the thermal after-drop was explained. In our final topic, we critique the numerous indices developed in attempts to numerically rate hot and cold stresses. The criteria for an effective thermal stress index were established by the 1930s. However, few indices satisfied those requirements, either then or now, and the surviving indices, including the unvalidated Wet-Bulb Globe-Thermometer index, do not fully predict thermal strain.

3D printed models are an accurate, cost-effective, and reproducible tool for quantifying terrestrial thermal environments

Predicting ecological responses to rapid environmental change has become one of the greatest challenges of modern biology. One of the major hurdles in forecasting these responses is accurately quantifying the thermal environments that organisms experience. The distribution of temperatures available within an organism's habitat is typically measured using data loggers called operative temperature models (OTMs) that are designed to mimic certain properties of heat exchange in the focal organism. The gold standard for OTM construction in studies of terrestrial ectotherms has been the use of copper electroforming which creates anatomically accurate models that equilibrate quickly to ambient thermal conditions. However, electroformed models require the use of caustic chemicals, are often brittle, and their production is expensive and time intensive. This has resulted in many researchers resorting to the use of simplified OTMs that can yield substantial measurement errors. 3D printing offers the prospect of robust, easily replicated, morphologically accurate, and cost-effective OTMs that capture the benefits but alleviate the problems associated with electroforming. Here, we validate the use of OTMs that were 3D printed using several materials across eight lizard species of different body sizes and living in habitats ranging from deserts to tropical forests. We show that 3D printed OTMs have low thermal inertia and predict the live animal's equilibration temperature with high accuracy across a wide range of body sizes and microhabitats. Finally, we developed a free online repository and database of 3D scans (https://www.3dotm.org/) to increase the accessibility of this tool to researchers around the world and facilitate ease of production of 3D printed models. 3D printing of OTMs is generalizable to taxa beyond lizards. If widely adopted, this approach promises greater accuracy and reproducibility in studies of terrestrial thermal ecology and should lead to improved forecasts of the biological impacts of climate change.

Applying the concept of niche breadth to understand urban tree mortality in the UK

Accelerated climate change has raised concerns about heightened vulnerability of urban trees, spurring the need to reevaluate their suitability. The urgency has also driven the widespread application of climatic niche-based models. In particular, the concept of niche breadth (NB), the range of environmental conditions that species can tolerate, is commonly estimated based on species occurrence data over the selected geographic range to predict species response to changing conditions. However, in urban environments where many species are cultivated out of the NB of their natural distributions, additional empirical evidence beyond presence and absence is needed not only to test the true tolerance limits but also to evaluate species' adaptive capacity to future climate. In this research, mortality trends of Acer and Quercus species spanning a 21-year period (2000-2021) from tree inventories of three major UK botanic gardens - the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (KEW), Westonbirt, the National Arboretum (WESB), and the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (RBGE) - were analyzed in relation to their NB under long-term drought stress. As a result, Acer species were more responsive to drought and heat stress. For Acer, positioning below the lower limits of the precipitation of warmest quarter led to an increase in the probability of annual mortality by 1.2 and 1.3 % at KEW and RBGE respectively. In addition, the mean cumulative mortality rate increased corresponding to an increase in the number of niche positions below the lower limits of the selected bioclimatic variables. On the other hand, Quercus species in general exhibited comparable resilience regardless of their niche positions. Moreover, Mediterranean oaks were most tolerant, with cumulative mortality rates that were lower than those of native oaks in the UK. These findings further highlight the importance of incorporating ecological performance and recognizing species-specific adaptive strategies in climatic niche modeling.

Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming

Climate change will exacerbate the negative effects associated with the introduction of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invasive species in relation to environmental warming is therefore a fundamental task in ecology and conservation. The Baltic Sea is currently threatened by several local stressors and the highest increase in sea surface temperature of the world's large marine ecosystems. These new thermal conditions can further favour the spreading of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), a fish of Ponto-Caspian origin, currently well established in the southern and central parts of the Baltic Sea. This study aims to assess the thermal habitat suitability of the round goby in the Baltic Sea considering the past and future conditions. The study combines sightings records with known physiological models of aerobic performance and sea surface temperatures. Physiological models read these temperatures, at sighting times and locations, to determine their effects on the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS) of the fish, a measure of its energetic potential in relation to environmental conditions. The geographical mapping of the AMS was used to describe the changes in habitat suitability during the past 3 decades and for climatic predictions (until 2100) showing that the favourable thermal habitat in the Baltic Sea has increased during the past 32 years and will continue to do so in all the applied climate model predictions. Particularly, the predicted new thermal conditions do not cause any reduction in the AMS of round goby populations, while the wintertime cold ranges are likely expected to preserve substantial areas from invasion. The results of this research can guide future monitoring programs increasing the chance to detect this invader in novel areas.

Parameterizing mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology: a review of empirical approaches

Mechanistic niche models are computational tools developed using biophysical principles to address grand challenges in ecology and evolution, such as the mechanisms that shape the fundamental niche and the adaptive significance of traits. Here, we review the empirical basis of mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology, which are used to answer a broad array of questions in ecology, evolution and global change biology. We describe the experiments and observations that are frequently used to parameterize these models and how these empirical data are then incorporated into mechanistic niche models to predict performance, growth, survival and reproduction. We focus on the physiological, behavioral and morphological traits that are frequently measured and then integrated into these models. We also review the empirical approaches used to incorporate evolutionary processes, phenotypic plasticity and biotic interactions. We discuss the importance of validation experiments and observations in verifying underlying assumptions and complex processes. Despite the reliance of mechanistic niche models on biophysical theory, empirical data have and will continue to play an essential role in their development and implementation.

Empirical estimation of habitat suitability for rare plant restoration in an era of ongoing climatic shifts

Accurate estimates of current and future habitat suitability are needed for species that may require assistance in tracking a shifting climate. Standard species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence data are the most common approach for evaluating climatic suitability, but these may suffer from inaccuracies stemming from disequilibrium dynamics and/or an inability to identify suitable climate regions that have no analogues within the current range. An alternative approach is to test performance with experimental introductions, and model suitability from the empirical results. We used this method with the Haleakalā silversword (Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum), using a network of out-plant plots across the top of Haleakalā volcano, Hawai'i. Over a ~ 5-year period, survival varied strongly across this network and was effectively explained by a simple model including mean rainfall and air temperature. We then applied this model to estimate current climatic suitability for restoration or translocation activities, to define trends in suitability over the past three decades, and to project future suitability through 2051. This empirical approach indicated that much of the current range has low suitability for long-term successful restoration, but also identified areas of high climatic suitability in a region where plants do not currently occur. These patterns contrast strongly with projections obtained with a standard SDM, which predicted continued suitability throughout the current range. Under continued climatic shifts, these results caution against the common SDM presumption of equilibrium between species' distributions and their environment, even for long-established native species.

Roles of multi-level temperature-adaptive responses and microhabitat variation in establishing distributions of intertidal species

How intertidal species survive their harsh environment and how best to evaluate and forecast range shifts in species distribution are two important and closely related questions for intertidal ecologists and global change biologists. Adaptive variation in responses of organisms to environmental change across all levels of biological organization - from behavior to molecular systems - is of key importance in setting distribution patterns, yet studies often neglect the interactions of diverse types of biological variation (e.g. differences in thermal optima owing to genetic and acclimation-induced effects) with environmental variation, notably at the scale of microhabitats. Intertidal species have to cope with extreme and frequently changing thermal stress, and have shown high variation in thermal sensitivities and adaptive responses at different levels of biological organization. Here, I review the physiological and biochemical adaptations of intertidal species to environmental temperature on multiple spatial and temporal scales. With fine-scale datasets for the thermal limits of individuals and for environmental temperature variation at the microhabitat scale, we can map the thermal sensitivity for each individual in different microhabitats, and then scale up the thermal sensitivity analysis to the population level and, finally, to the species level by incorporating physiological traits into species distribution models. These more refined mechanistic models that include consideration of physiological variations have higher predictive power than models that neglect these variations, and they will be crucial to answering the questions posed above concerning adaptive mechanisms and the roles they play in governing distribution patterns in a rapidly changing world.

Habitat Temperatures of the Red Firebug, Pyrrhocoris apterus: The Value of Small-Scale Climate Data Measurement

Ambient temperature is a main parameter that determines the thriving and propagation of ectothermic insects. It affects egg and larval development as well as adults' survival and successful overwintering. Pyrrhocoris apterus is a herbivorous bug species almost ubiquitous in Eurasia. Its distribution extends from the Atlantic Coast to Siberia, Northwest China and Mongolia. After introduction, it established successfully in the USA, Central America, India and Australia, which indicates a high invasive potential of this species. We determined the climatic conditions in Central Europe in a habitat where P. apterus has been continuously observed for decades. We conducted temperature measurements in the habitat and in the microhabitats where individuals could be found during the year and set them against freely available climate data commonly used to characterize habitat climate. Our temperature measurements were also compared to thermal limits (critical thermal minima and maxima). Although ambient temperatures outside the thermal boundaries of P. apterus can and do occur in the habitat, the bugs thrive and propagate. Microhabitat measurement in winter showed that individuals sought areas with favorable temperatures for hibernation. In particular, these areas are not (always) represented in large-scale climate tables, leading to possible misinterpretation of future patterns of spread of invasive species spread.

Biophysical models accurately characterize the thermal energetics of a small invasive passerine bird

Effective management of invasive species requires accurate predictions of their invasion potential in different environments. By considering species' physiological tolerances and requirements, biophysical mechanistic models can potentially deliver accurate predictions of where introduced species are likely to establish. Here, we evaluate biophysical model predictions of energy use by comparing them to experimentally obtained energy expenditure (EE) and thermoneutral zones (TNZs) for the common waxbill Estrilda astrild, a small-bodied avian invader. We show that biophysical models accurately predict TNZ and EE and that they perform better than traditional time-energy budget methods. Sensitivity analyses indicate that body temperature, metabolic rate, and feather characteristics were the most influential traits affecting model accuracy. This evaluation of common waxbill energetics represents a crucial step toward improved parameterization of biophysical models, eventually enabling accurate predictions of invasion risk for small (sub)tropical passerines.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Hydrothermal impacts of water release on early life stages of white sturgeon in the Nechako river, B.C. Canada

Water temperature plays a crucial role in the physiology of aquatic species, particularly in their survival and development. Thus, resource programs are commonly used to manage water quality conditions for endemic species. In a river system like the Nechako River system, central British Columbia, a water management program was established in the 1980s to alter water release in the summer months to prevent water temperatures from exceeding a 20 °C threshold downstream during the spawning season of Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Such a management regime could have consequences for other resident species like the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus). Here, we use a hydrothermal model and white sturgeon life stage-specific experimental thermal tolerance data to evaluate water releases and potential hydrothermal impacts based on the Nechako water management plan (1980-2019). Our analysis focused mainly on the warmest five-month period of the year (May to September), which includes the water release management period (July-August). Our results show that the thermal exposure risk, an index that measures temperature impact on species physiology of Nechako white sturgeon across all early life stages (embryo, yolk-sac larvae, larvae, and juvenile) has increased substantially, especially in the 2010s relative to the management program implementations' first decade (the 1980s). The embryonic life stage was the most impacted, with a continuous increase in potential adverse thermal exposure in all months examined in the study. We also recorded major impacts of increased thermal exposure on the critical habitats necessary for Nechako white sturgeon recovery. Our study highlights the importance of a holistic management program with consideration for all species of the Nechako River system and the merit of possibly reviewing the current management plan, particularly with the current concerns about climate change impacts on the Nechako River.

Linking physiology and climate to infer species distributions in Australian skinks

Climate has a key impact on animal physiology, which in turn can have a profound influence on geographic distributions. Yet, the mechanisms linking climate, physiology and distribution are not fully resolved. Using an integrative framework, we tested the predictions of the climatic variability hypothesis (CVH), which states that species with broader distributions have broader physiological tolerance than range-restricted species, in a group of Lampropholis skinks (8 species, 196 individuals) along a latitudinal gradient in eastern Australia. We investigated several physiological aspects including metabolism, water balance, thermal physiology, thermoregulatory behaviour and ecological performance. Additionally, to test whether organismal information (e.g. behaviour and physiology) can enhance distribution models, hence providing evidence that physiology and climate interact to shape range sizes, we tested whether species distribution models incorporating physiology better predict the range sizes than models using solely climatic layers. In agreement with the CVH, our results confirm that widespread species can tolerate and perform better at broader temperature ranges than range-restricted species. We also found differences in field body temperatures, but not thermal preference, between widespread and range-restricted species. However, metabolism and water balance did not correlate with range size. Biophysical modelling revealed that the incorporation of physiological and behavioural data improves predictions of Lampropholis distributions compared with models based solely on macroclimatic inputs, but mainly for range-restricted species. By integrating several aspects of the physiology and niche modelling of a group of ectothermic animals, our study provides evidence that physiology correlates with species distributions. Physiological responses to climate are central in establishing geographic ranges of skinks, and the incorporation of processes occurring at local scales (e.g. behaviour) can improve species distribution models.

Understanding Organisms Using Ecological Observatory Networks

Human activities are rapidly changing ecosystems around the world. These changes have widespread implications for the preservation of biodiversity, agricultural productivity, prevalence of zoonotic diseases, and sociopolitical conflict. To understand and improve the predictive capacity for these and other biological phenomena, some scientists are now relying on observatory networks, which are often composed of systems of sensors, teams of field researchers, and databases of abiotic and biotic measurements across multiple temporal and spatial scales. One well-known example is NEON, the US-based National Ecological Observatory Network. Although NEON and similar networks have informed studies of population, community, and ecosystem ecology for years, they have been minimally used by organismal biologists. NEON provides organismal biologists, in particular those interested in NEON's focal taxa, with an unprecedented opportunity to study phenomena such as range expansions, disease epidemics, invasive species colonization, macrophysiology, and other biological processes that fundamentally involve organismal variation. Here, we use NEON as an exemplar of the promise of observatory networks for understanding the causes and consequences of morphological, behavioral, molecular, and physiological variation among individual organisms.

Commonly collected thermal performance data can inform species distributions in a data-limited invader

Predicting potential distributions of species in new areas is challenging. Physiological data can improve interpretation of predicted distributions and can be used in directed distribution models. Nonnative species provide useful case studies. Panther chameleons (Furcifer pardalis) are native to Madagascar and have established populations in Florida, USA, but standard correlative distribution modeling predicts no suitable habitat for F. pardalis there. We evaluated commonly collected thermal traits- thermal performance, tolerance, and preference-of F. pardalis and the acclimatization potential of these traits during exposure to naturally-occurring environmental conditions in North Central Florida. Though we observed temperature-dependent thermal performance, chameleons maintained similar thermal limits, performance, and preferences across seasons, despite long-term exposure to cool temperatures. Using the physiological data collected, we developed distribution models that varied in restriction: time-dependent exposure near and below critical thermal minima, predicted activity windows, and predicted performance thresholds. Our application of commonly collected physiological data improved interpretations on potential distributions of F. pardalis, compared with correlative distribution modeling approaches that predicted no suitable area in Florida. These straightforward approaches can be applied to other species with existing physiological data or after brief experiments on a limited number of individuals, as demonstrated here.

Potential distribution and spread of Japanese beetle in Washington State

The Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman, 1841) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), was first detected in southern Washington State in 2020. Widespread trapping efforts ensued, and over 23,000 individuals were collected in both 2021 and 2022 in this region known for specialty crop production. The invasion of Japanese beetle is of major concern as it feeds on over 300 plant species and has shown an ability to spread across landscapes. Here, we created a habitat suitability model for Japanese beetle in Washington and used dispersal models to forecast invasion scenarios. Our models predict that the area of current establishment occurs in a region with highly suitable habitat. Moreover, vast areas of habitat that are likely highly suitable for Japanese beetle occur in coastal areas of western Washington, with medium to highly suitable habitat in central and eastern Washington. Dispersal models suggested that the beetle could spread throughout Washington within 20 years without management, which justifies quarantine and eradication measures. Timely map-based predictions can be useful tools to guide management of invasive species while also increasing citizen engagement to invaders.

Conservation of thermal physiology in tropical intertidal snails following an evolutionary transition to a cooler ecosystem: climate change implications

Predictions for animal responses to climate warming usually assume that thermal physiology is adapted to present-day environments, and seldom consider the influence of evolutionary background. Little is known about the conservation of warm-adapted physiology following an evolutionary transition to a cooler environment. We used cardiac thermal performance curves (cTPCs) of six neritid gastropod species to study physiological thermal trait variation associated with a lineage transition from warmer rocky shores to cooler mangroves. We distinguished between functional thermal performance traits, related to energy homeostasis (slope gradient, slope curvature, HRmax, maximum cardiac activity and Topt, the temperature that maximizes cardiac activity) and a trait that limits performance (ULT, the upper lethal temperature). Considering the theory of optimal thermal performance, we predicted that the functional traits should be under greater selective pressure to change directionally and in magnitude than the thermal limit, which is redundant in the cooler environment. We found little variation in all traits across species, habitats and ecosystems, despite a ~20°C reduction in maximum habitat temperature in the mangrove species over 50 million years. While slope gradient was significantly lowered in the mangrove species, the effect difference was negated by greater thermal plasticity in the rocky shore species. ULT showed the least variation and suggested thermal specialization in the warmest habitat studied. The observed muted variation of the functional traits among the species may be explained by their limited role in energy acquisition and rather their association with heat tolerance adaptation, which is redundant in the mangrove species. These findings have implications for the conservation of habitat of intertidal gastropods that transition to cooler environments. Furthermore, they highlight the significance of evolutionary history and physiological conservation when predicting species responses to climate change.