Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

The impact of anthropogenic pressures on microbial diversity and river multifunctionality relationships on a global scale

Conserving biodiversity is crucial for maintaining essential ecosystem functions, as indicated by the positive relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. However, the impacts of declining biodiversity on ecosystem functions in response to mounting human pressures remain uncertain. This uncertainty arises from the complexity of trade-offs among human activities, climate change, river properties, and biodiversity, which have not been comprehensively addressed collectively. Here, we provide evidence that river biodiversity was significantly and positively associated with multifunctionality and contributed to key ecosystem functions such as microbially driven water purification, leaf litter decomposition and pathogen control. However, human pressure led to abrupt changes in microbial diversity and river multifunctionality relationships at a human pressure value of 0.5. In approximately 30 % (N = 58) of countries globally, the ratio of area above this threshold exceeded the global average (∼11 %), especially in Europe. Results show that human pressure affected ecosystem functions through direct effects and interactive effects. We provide more direct evidence that the nonadditive effects triggered by prevailing human pressure impact the multifunctionality of rivers globally. Under high levels of human stress, the beneficial effects of biodiversity on nutrient cycling, carbon storage, gross primary productivity, leaf litter decomposition, and pathogen control tend to diminish. Our findings highlight that considering interactions between human pressure and local abiotic and biotic factors is key for understanding the fate of river ecosystems under climate change and increasing human pressure.

Competency in invasion science: addressing stagnation challenges by promoting innovation and creative thinking

In today's ever-evolving scientific landscape, invasion science faces a plethora of challenges, such as terminological inconsistency and the rapidly growing literature corpus with few or incomplete syntheses of knowledge, which may be perceived as a stagnation in scientific progress. We explore the concept of 'competency', which is extensively debated across disciplines such as psychology, philosophy, and linguistics. Traditionally, it is associated with attributes that enable superior performance and continuous ingenuity. We propose that the concept of competency can be applied to invasion science as the ability to creatively and critically engage with global challenges. For example, competency may help develop innovative strategies for understanding and managing the multifaceted, unprecedented challenges posed by the spread and impacts of non-native species, as well as identifying novel avenues of inquiry for management. Despite notable advancements and the exponential increase in scholarly publications, invasion science still encounters obstacles such as insufficient interdisciplinary collaboration paralleled by a lack of groundbreaking or actionable scientific advancements. To enhance competency in invasion science, a paradigm shift is needed. This shift entails fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, nurturing creative and critical thinking, and establishing a stable and supportive environment for early career researchers, thereby promoting the emergence of competency and innovation. Embracing perspectives from practitioners and decision makers, alongside diverse disciplines beyond traditional ecological frameworks, can further add novel insights and innovative methodologies into invasion science. Invasion science must also address the ethical implications of its practices and engage the public in awareness and education programs. Such initiatives can encourage a more holistic understanding of invasions, attracting and cultivating competent minds capable of thinking beyond conventional paradigms and contributing to the advancement of the field in a rapidly changing world.

Climate change drives fish communities: Changing multiple facets of fish biodiversity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Global marine biodiversity is experiencing significant alterations due to climate change. Incorporating phylogenetic and functional diversity may provide novel insights into these impacts. This study used an ensemble model approach (random forest and boosted regression tree), to predict the habitat distribution of 47 fish species in the Northwestern Pacific under contemporary (2000-2014) and future scenarios (2040-2050, 2090-2100). We first examined the relationship between eleven functional traits and habitat changes, predicting the spatial distribution of functional traits within fish communities. A significant correlation was observed between temperature preference and habitat changes, highlighting the vulnerability of cold-water species and potential advantages for warm-water species in the future. Moreover, fish communities exhibited a spatial gradient distribution with southern regions characterized by shorter-lived and earlier maturity, contrasting with longer-lived and later maturity species in the north. Secondly, to assess the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity, we explored the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity under contemporary and future scenarios, revealing higher indices in the East China Sea (ECS) and the coastal sea of Japan, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a contemporary biodiversity hotspot. In future scenarios, the three biodiversity indices would decline in the Yellow Sea and ECS, but increase in the sea beyond the continental shelf, coastal sea of Hokkaido, and Sea of Okhotsk. Lastly, we explored processes and mechanisms in the change of community composition. By quantifying β-diversity, we identified species loss (nestedness) as the primary driver of fish community change by 2040-2050, with species replacement (turnover) predicted to become dominant in the far future. Our results explore the potential changes in multiple facets of fish biodiversity, providing crucial insights for policymakers aiming to protect fish resources and biodiversity.

Xanthium strumarium L., an invasive species in the subtropics: prediction of potential distribution areas and climate adaptability in Pakistan

Invasive species such as Xanthium strumarium L., can disrupt ecosystems, reduce crop yields, and degrade pastures, leading to economic losses and jeopardizing food security and biodiversity. To address the challenges posed by invasive species such as X. strumarium, this study uses species distribution modeling (SDM) to map its potential distribution in Pakistan and assess how it might respond to climate change. This addresses the urgent need for proactive conservation and management strategies amidst escalating ecological threats. SDM forecasts a species' potential dispersion across various geographies in both space and time by correlating known species occurrences to environmental variables. SDMs have the potential to help address the challenges posed by invasive species by predicting the future habitat suitability of species distributions and identifying the environmental factors influencing these distributions. Our study shows that seasonal temperature dependence, mean temperature of wettest quarter and total nitrogen content of soil are important climatic factors influencing habitat suitability of X. strumarium. The potential habitat of this invasive species is likely to expand beyond the areas it currently colonizes, with a notable presence in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. These areas are particularly vulnerable due to threats to agriculture and biodiversity. Under current conditions, an estimated 21% of Pakistan's land area is infested by X. strumarium, mainly in upper Punjab, central Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The range is expected to expand in most regions except Sindh. The central and northeastern parts of the country are proving to be particularly suitable habitats for X. strumarium. Effective strategies are crucial to contain the spread of X. strumarium. The MaxEnt modeling approach generates invasion risk maps by identifying potential risk zones based on a species' climate adaptability. These maps can aid in early detection, allowing authorities to prioritize surveillance and management strategies for controlling the spread of invasive species in suitable habitats. However, further research is recommended to understand the adaptability of species to unexplored environments.

Global climate change impacts on the potential distribution of typical Trachinotus fishes and early warning assessment of invasions

Marine habitats and ecosystems are increasingly being impacted by global climate change and the global spread of captive breeding. In this study, we focused on five typical Trachinotus species (Trachinotus anak, Trachinotus blochii, Trachinotus mookalee, Trachinotus goreenisi, Trachinotus ovatus) as research subjects. We utilized species distribution models and ecological niche models to predict the present and future potential distribution of these species, as well as to assess ecological niche overlap and evaluate the early warning of invasion by Trachinotus species. T. ovatus stands out with its broad distribution range and high adaptability to different environments. It occupies 1.114% of medium-high suitable areas, spanning 100,147 km2. Our predictions also suggest that T. ovatus would undergo a significant expansion (approximately 55% of the total area) under both past and future environmental scenarios, demonstrating a higher tolerance and adaptability to changes in ambient temperatures. It can be discerned that T. ovatus exhibits strong environmental adaptability, which may potentially lead to biological invasion along the southeastern coast of China. The T. anak, on the other hand, showed a higher expansion trend under high carbon dioxide concentrations (RCP8.5), indicating a certain convergence with carbon dioxide concentration. Our models showed that under future climatic conditions, T. ovatus would become the dominant species, with increased competition with T. mookalee and decreased competition with T. goreenisi, T. mookalee, and T. anak. Based on our findings and the net-pen culture mode of T. ovatus, we identified the hotspot habitat of T. ovatus to be located in the Indo-Pacific convergence zone. However, there is a possibility of an expansion trend towards the southeast coast of China in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to provide an early warning for the potential biological invasion of T. ovatus.

Global primary predictors of extinction risk in primates

Identifying the main predictors of species' extinction risk while accounting for the effects of spatial and phylogenetic structures in the data is key to preventing species loss in tropical forests through adequate conservation practices. We recorded 22 705 precise geographical locations of primate occurrence across four major geographic realms (Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar and Asia) to assess predictors of threat status using a novel Bayesian spatio-phylogenetic approach. We estimated the relative contributions of fixed factors (forest amount, body mass, home range, diel activity, locomotion, evolutionary distinctiveness and climatic instability) and random factors (space and phylogeny) to primate extinction risk. Precipitation instability increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics but decreased it in mainland Africa and Madagascar. Forest amount was negatively associated with extinction risk in all realms except Madagascar. Body mass increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics and Madagascar, whereas home range increased the extinction risk in mainland Africa and decreased it in Asia. Evolutionary distinctiveness negatively influenced extinction risk only in mainland Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and forest protection strategies. Increasing the protection of large primates and reducing hunting are also essential.

A dynamic subtropical coastal hotspot of benthic foraminifera in the Southeastern Mediterranean indicates early-stage tropicalization

Due to ongoing ocean warming, subtropical environments are becoming accessible to tropical species. Among these environments are the vermetid reefs of the Southeastern Mediterranean (SEM). In the last decades, these valuable coastal habitats witnessed the proliferation of numerous alien species of tropical origin. Among the meiofauna thriving on these reefs are benthic foraminifera, single cell marine organisms that make a significant contribution to global carbonate production. It has been widely recognized that benthic foraminifera, among other invasive species, thrive in the macroalgal cover, and it has been suggested that their populations are becoming a significant new source of sediment substrate. Here, we report on the first systematic assessment of the population size of the benthic foraminifera, allowing a comparison with data from the native tropical habitat of these species. Our study is based on a seasonal sampling of benthic foraminifera from confined sampling areas at four sites along the vermetid reef platforms of the Israeli SEM coast. Our survey reveals a patchy distribution of each species with peak population densities exceeding 100,000 specimens per m2, making the SEM a hotspot of benthic foraminifera, with population densities comparable to tropical coral reef environments. The assemblages of the SEM hotspot are dominated by cosmopolitan foraminiferal taxa and tropical invaders from the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Amphistegina lobifera, Pararotalia calcariformata, soritids, and Hauerina diversa). In contrast to foraminiferal hotspots in the tropics, which are completely dominated by larger symbiont-bearing taxa, the SEM hotspot stands out due to high abundances of non-symbiont-bearing species Textularia agglutinans and small miliolids. An intriguing observation is the significant heterogeneity in composition and density of foraminiferal assemblages between the vermetid reefs' southern and northern areas (Israel), indicating that the productivity of the dominant species are also modulated by local yet unknown environmental factors.

Climate change effects on the diversity and distribution of soybean true bugs pests

BACKGROUND

Climate change and pests are two major factors in the reduction of global soybean yields. The diversity and geographic distribution of soybean true bug pests vary across soybean production areas worldwide, and climate change impacts are different across species and regions. Therefore, we integrated spatial and temporal predictions at the global scale to predict the impact of global warming on the distribution of 84 soybean true bug pests by the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) under present (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) scenarios. We produced an ensemble projection of the potential distribution of pests and crop production areas to estimate how and where climate warming will augment the threat of soybean true bug pests to soybean production areas.

RESULTS

Our results indicated that Southeast North America, Central South America, Europe and East Asia were the regions with the higher richness of soybean true bug and the most vulnerable areas to invasion threats. Climate change would promote the expansion of the distribution range and facilitate pest movement pole wards, affecting more soybean cultivated areas located in mid-latitudes. Moreover, species with different distribution patterns responded differently to climate change in that large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy over time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease.

CONCLUSION

This result indicates that some pests that have not yet become notable may have the chance to develop into serious pests in the future due to the expansion of their geographical range. Our findings highlight that soybean cultivated regions at mid-latitudes would face general infestations from soybean true bug pests under global warming. These results will further facilitate the formulation of adaptation planning to minimize local environmental impacts in the future. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Water temperature affects somatic growth, body condition and oxygen and carbon otolith isotopes of stout whiting (Sillago robusta)

Ocean warming will continue to affect the growth, body condition and geographic distributions of marine fishes and understanding these effects is an urgent challenge for fisheries research and management. Determining how temperature is recorded in fish otolith carbonate, provides an additional chronological tool to investigate thermal histories, preferences and patterns of movement throughout an individual's life history. The influence of three water temperature treatments (22°C, 25°C, and 28°C) on hatchery-reared juvenile stout whiting, Sillago robusta, was tested using a controlled outdoor mesocosm system. Fish were measured for change in length and weight, and body condition was determined using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Sagittal otoliths were analysed for stable oxygen (δ18Ootolith) and carbon (δ13Cotolith) isotopes via isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Whiting kept at 22°C were significantly smaller and had diminished body condition compared to fish in 25°C and 28°C, which did not significantly differ from each other. The δ18O otolith values of stout whiting demonstrated a negative temperature-dependent fractionation relationship which was similar in slope but had a different intercept to the relationships reported for inorganic aragonite and other marine fish species. The δ13C otolith values also showed a negative relationship with water temperature, and the calculated proportion of metabolic carbon M in otoliths differed between fish reared in the coolest (22°C) and warmest (28°C) temperature treatments. Overall, the results suggest that stout whiting may have reached an upper growth threshold between 25°C and 28°C, and that growth and body condition may be optimised during warmer seasons and toward the northerly regions of their distribution. Otolith oxygen thermometry shows promise as a natural tracer of thermal life history, and species-specific fractionation equations should be utilised when possible to prevent errors in temperature reconstructions of wild-caught fish.

Combined effects of climate and land-use changes on the alpha and beta functional diversities of terrestrial mammals in China

Climate and land-use changes are predicted to impact biodiversity, threatening ecosystem services and functions. However, their combined effects on the functional diversity of mammals at the regional scale remain unclear, especially at the beta level. Here, we use projected climate and land-use changes in China to investigate their potential effects on the alpha and beta functional diversities of terrestrial mammals under low- and high-emission scenarios. In the current projection, we showed strong positive spatial correlations between functional richness and species richness. Functional evenness (FEve), functional specialization (FSpe), and functional originality (FOri) decreased with species richness, and functional divergence (FDiv) increased first and then plateaued. Functional beta diversity was dominated by its nestedness component, in contrast to the taxonomic facet. Potential changes in species richness are more strongly influenced by land-use change under the low-emission scenario, while under the high-emission scenario, they are more strongly influenced by climate change. Changes in functional richness (FRic) were inconsistent with those in species richness, with a magnitude of decreases greater than predicted from species richness. Moreover, mammal assemblages showed potential functional differentiation (FD) across the country, and the trends exceeded those towards taxonomic differentiation (TD). Our findings help us understand the processes underlying biodiversity responses to global changes on multiple facets and provide new insight for conservation plans.

Genomic and Epigenomic Influences on Resilience across Scales: Lessons from the Responses of Fish to Environmental Stressors

Understanding the factors that influence the resilience of biological systems to environmental change is a pressing concern in the face of increasing human impacts on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them. However, most considerations of biological resilience have focused at the community and ecosystem levels, whereas here we discuss how including consideration of processes occurring at lower levels of biological organization may provide insights into factors that influence resilience at higher levels. Specifically, we explore how processes at the genomic and epigenomic levels may cascade up to influence resilience at higher levels. We ask how the concepts of "resistance," or the capacity of a system to minimize change in response to a disturbance, and "recovery," or the ability of a system to return to its original state following a disturbance and avoid tipping points and resulting regime shifts, map to these lower levels of biological organization. Overall, we suggest that substantial changes at these lower levels may be required to support resilience at higher levels, using selected examples of genomic and epigenomic responses of fish to climate-change-related stressors such as high temperature and hypoxia at the levels of the genome, epigenome, and organism.

Trophic and environmental influences on trace element concentrations in Australian fur seals

Trace elements (TE) in living organisms can have detrimental health impacts depending on their concentration. As many TEs are obtained through diet, trophic niche changes associated with the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate-change may influence exposure to top predators. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus; AUFS) represents the greatest resident, marine predator biomass in south-eastern Australia. With adult female foraging ranges limited to the continental shelf, their source of TEs is geographically restricted. Plasma, red blood cell and milk samples collected between 1998 and 2022 at Kanowna Island, were analysed for TEs (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, V and Zn) using inductively-coupled plasma mass-spectrometry (ICP-MS). Plasma fatty-acid profiles and ocean climate variables were used to investigate trophic and environmental influences, respectively, on TE concentrations. Estimated whole blood concentrations in lactating females were comparable to levels reported in other marine mammals, except for Se and Mn. Correlations between adult tissues were negative for Mn and positive for As, Hg and Sn. Molar Se:Hg were high but within reported levels for pinnipeds. Element concentrations in pup plasma were greater than lactating females for Fe, Mn and Sn indicative of high transplacental transfer while doses of Se and As from milk exceeded tolerable effect levels for humans. Relationships with fatty-acid profiles suggest diet influenced concentrations of Cu, Hg, Mn, Sn, V and Zn in adult plasma. In addition, inter-annual variation in TE concentrations were influenced by broad-scale climate indices, including the Southern Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation Index, and local conditions associated with the seasonally-active Bonney Upwelling. These findings indicate that TE concentrations in blood and milk of AUFS are and will continue to be affected by anticipated oceanographic changes, mediated by alterations in prey type availability, with potential impacts on the population's health.

Temperature variability regulates the interactive effects of warming and pharmaceutical on aquatic ecosystem dynamics

Climate warming and pharmaceutical contaminants have profound impacts on population dynamics and ecological community structure, yet the consequences of their interactive effects remain poorly understood. Here, we explore how climate warming interacts with pharmaceutical-induced boldness change to affect aquatic ecosystems, built on an empirically well-informed food-chain model, consisting of a size-structured fish consumer, a zooplankton prey, and a fish predator. Climate warming is characterized by both daily mean temperature (DMT) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in our model. Results show that DMT and high levels of species' boldness are the primary drivers of community instability. However, their interactive effects can lead to diverse outcomes: from predator collapse to coexistence with seasonality-driven cycles and coexistence with population interaction-driven cycles. The interactive effects are significantly modulated by daily temperature variability, where moderate DTR counteracts the destabilizing interactive effects by increasing consumer reproduction, while large temperature variability considerably reduces consumer biomass, destabilizing the community at high mean temperatures. Our analyses disentangle the respective roles of DMT, DTR and boldness in mediating the response of aquatic ecosystems to the impacts from pharmaceutical contaminants in the context of climate warming. The interactive effects of the environmental stressors reported here underscore the pressing need for studies aimed at quantifying the cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on aquatic ecosystems.

Comparison of Hydric and Thermal Physiology in an Environmentally Diverse Clade of Caribbean Anoles

As the world becomes warmer and precipitation patterns less predictable, organisms will experience greater heat and water stress. It is crucial to understand the factors that predict variation in thermal and hydric physiology among species. This study focuses on investigating the relationships between thermal and hydric diversity and their environmental predictors in a clade of Hispaniolan anole lizards, which are part of a broader Caribbean adaptive radiation. This clade, the "cybotoid" anoles, occupies a wide range of thermal habitats (from sea level to several kilometers above it) and hydric habitats (such as xeric scrub, broadleaf forest, and pine forest), setting up the possibility for ecophysiological specialization among species. Among the thermal traits, only cold tolerance is correlated with environmental temperature, and none of our climate variables are correlated with hydric physiology. Nevertheless, we found a negative relationship between heat tolerance (critical thermal maximum) and evaporative water loss at higher temperatures, such that more heat-tolerant lizards are also more desiccation-tolerant at higher temperatures. This finding hints at shared thermal and hydric specialization at higher temperatures, underscoring the importance of considering the interactive effects of temperature and water balance in ecophysiological studies. While ecophysiological differentiation is a core feature of the anole adaptive radiation, our results suggest that close relatives in this lineage do not diverge in hydric physiology and only diverge partially in thermal physiology.

Climate-driven shifts in freshwater biodiversity will impact mitigation costs for hydropower

Climate change is forecasted to drastically alter freshwater fish and mussel species distribution. Hydropower dam reservoirs, which modify downstream thermal regimes, may interact with climate change's impact on species distribution. This distribution shift may feedback, affecting hydropower operation costs through environmental compliance. We investigated how freshwater species distribution will shift due to climate change and hydropower reservoirs in the conterminous United States (CONUS), and how this will affect biodiversity mitigation costs for privately-owned hydropower plants. In general, using environmental niche modeling, we found that climate change increased the range of both freshwater fish and mussel species on average. For fish, this was mainly due to the expanded habitat for warm-water and cool-water fish species despite the diminish in habitat for cold-water species. Compared to climate change, thermal stratification of hydropower reservoirs had a small impact on the future range changes of these species in the tailwaters but showed an interaction with the effect of climate change on species range. Geographically, we projected an increase of species richness in the west and a decrease in the central and east of CONUS for fish, while projecting uniform increase for mussels. With this shift in species distribution, we estimated that the Northwest region will face the largest increase in mitigation cost, while the majority of plants in the Southeast will experience a decrease in cost.

Mediterranean octocoral populations exposed to marine heatwaves are less resilient to disturbances

The effects of climate change are now more pervasive than ever. Marine ecosystems have been particularly impacted by climate change, with marine heatwaves (MHWs) being a strong driver of mass mortality events. Even in the most optimistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, MHWs will continue to increase in frequency, intensity and duration. For this reason, understanding the resilience of marine species to the increase of MHWs is crucial to predicting their viability under future climatic conditions. In this study, we explored the consequences of MHWs on the resilience (the ability of a population to resist and recover after a disturbance) of a Mediterranean key octocoral species, Paramuricea clavata, to further disturbances to their population structure. To quantify P. clavata's capacity to resist and recover from future disturbances, we used demographic information collected from 1999 to 2022, from two different sites in the NW Mediterranean Sea to calculate the transient dynamics of their populations. Our results showed that the differences in the dynamics of populations exposed and those not exposed to MHWs were driven mostly by differences in mean survivorship and growth. We also showed that after MHWs P. clavata populations had lower resistance and slower rates of recovery than those not exposed to MHWs. Populations exposed to MHWs had lower resistance elasticity to most demographic processes compared to unexposed populations. In contrast, the only demographic process showing some differences when comparing the speed of recovery elasticity values between populations exposed and unexposed to MHWs was stasis. Finally, under scenarios of increasing frequency of MHWs, the extinction of P. clavata populations will accelerate and their capacity to resist and recover after further disturbances will be hampered. Overall, these findings confirm that future climatic conditions will make octocoral populations even more vulnerable to further disturbances. These results highlight the importance of limiting local impacts on marine ecosystems to dampen the consequences of climate change.

Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change

A variety of marine organisms can produce sounds that are important components of the marine soundscape and play a critical role in maintaining marine biodiversity. Climate change has greatly altered the geographical ranges of many marine species, including sound-producing organisms. However, the direction and the magnitude of the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of sound-producing marine organisms in future remain largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we selected snapping shrimp, one of the most well-known marine sound-producing organisms, as a model species and explored their redistribution under climate change via species distribution models. We aimed to predict the redistribution of snapping shrimps under climate change and identify the influencing factors, which have important implications for marine conservation. Our models exhibited good discrimination abilities and identified maximum temperature as the most influential predictor of snapping shrimp distribution. Model predictions suggested that species richness is higher in tropical and temperate coastal waters and peaks in the Indo-Pacific region. The majority of snapping shrimp species are expected to respond to the changing climate by shifting their geographical ranges to deeper waters and higher latitudes. Our results showed that, in the future, high-latitude species were more likely to experience range expansion, whereas low-latitude species might experience range contraction. Moreover, the Central Indo-Pacific are predicted to suffer the biggest decline in species richness, whereas areas such as the coastal waters of southern Australia and northern China might serve as climate refuges for snapping shrimps in the future. In summary, this study highlights the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of sound-producing snapping shrimps, which may result in cascading effects on marine ecosystems.

Harder, better, faster, stronger? Dispersal in the Anthropocene

The dispersal of organisms in the Anthropocene has been profoundly altered by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for humans, biodiversity, and ecosystems. Managing such dispersal effectively is critical to achieve the 2030 targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Here, we bring together insights from invasion science, movement ecology, and conservation biology, and extend a widely used classification framework for the introduction pathways of alien species to encompass other forms of dispersal. We develop a simple, global scheme for classifying the movement of organisms into the types of dispersal that characterise the Anthropocene. The scheme can be used to improve our understanding of dispersal, provide policy relevant advice, inform conservation and biosecurity actions, and enable monitoring and reporting towards conservation targets.

Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China

Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.

Dynamic primary resources, not just wild prey availability, underpin lion depredation of livestock in a savanna ecosystem

Because it can lead to retaliatory killing, livestock depredation by large carnivores is among the foremost threats to carnivore conservation, and it severely impacts human well-being worldwide. Ongoing climate change can amplify these human-wildlife conflicts, but such issues are largely unexplored, though are becoming increasingly recognized. Here, we assessed how the availability of primary resources and wild prey interact to shape large carnivore selection for livestock rather than wild prey (i.e., via prey switching or apparent competition). Specifically, we combined remotely sensed estimates of primary resources (i.e., water availability and primary productivity), wild prey movement, and 7 years (2015-2021) of reports for livestock depredation by African lions (Panthera leo) in the Makgadikgadi Pans ecosystem, Botswana. Although livestock depredation did not vary between wet versus dry seasons, analyses at finer temporal scales revealed higher incidences of livestock depredation when primary production, water availability, and wild prey availability were lower, though the effects of wild prey availability were mediated by water availability. Increased precipitation also amplified livestock depredation events despite having no influence on wild prey availability. Our results suggest that livestock depredation is influenced by the diverse responses of livestock, wild prey, and lions to primary resource availability, a driver that is largely overlooked or oversimplified in studies of human-carnivore conflict. Our findings provide insight into tailoring potential conflict mitigation strategies to fine-scale changes in resource conditions to efficiently reduce conflict and support human livelihoods.

Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos

Anthropogenically induced changes to the natural world are increasingly exposing organisms to stimuli and stress beyond that to which they are adapted. In aquatic systems, it is thought that certain life stages are more vulnerable than others, with embryos being flagged as highly susceptible to environmental stressors. Interestingly, evidence from across a wide range of taxa suggests that aquatic embryos can hatch prematurely, potentially as an adaptive response to external stressors, despite the potential for individual costs linked with underdeveloped behavioural and/or physiological functions. However, surprisingly little research has investigated the prevalence, causes and consequences of premature hatching, and no compilation of the literature exists. Here, we review what is known about premature hatching in aquatic embryos and discuss how this phenomenon is likely to become exacerbated with anthropogenically induced global change. Specifically, we (1) review the mechanisms of hatching, including triggers for premature hatching in experimental and natural systems; (2) discuss the potential implications of premature hatching at different levels of biological organisation from individuals to ecosystems; and (3) outline knowledge gaps and future research directions for understanding the drivers and consequences of premature hatching. We found evidence that aquatic embryos can hatch prematurely in response to a broad range of abiotic (i.e. temperature, oxygen, toxicants, light, pH, salinity) and biotic (i.e. predators, pathogens) stressors. We also provide empirical evidence that premature hatching appears to be a common response to rapid thermal ramping across fish species. We argue that premature hatching represents a fascinating yet untapped area of study, and the phenomenon may provide some additional resilience to aquatic communities in the face of ongoing global change.

Resource-based modelling approach to studying evolutionary rescue

In this paper, we present an in-depth investigation into the dynamics of evolutionary rescue using a resource-based modelling approach. Utilizing classical consumer-resource models, we aim to understand how species can adapt to abrupt environmental changes that alter the availability of substitutable resources. Through both analytical solutions and simulation-based techniques, we explore the conditions under which populations can recover from critical sizes and avoid extinction. Our findings highlight the importance of minimum viable population sizes, mutation rates, and the adaptive capacity of metabolic strategies in influencing population resilience. We demonstrate that while increased mutation rates can facilitate faster recovery by enabling populations to evolve new metabolic strategies suited to the altered resource landscape, populations starting with smaller sizes or facing severe reductions in resource availability are more susceptible to extinction. This study offers valuable insights into the interplay between ecological dynamics and evolutionary mechanisms, providing a comprehensive framework for predicting population persistence and informing conservation strategies under changing environmental conditions.

Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change

Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species' shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, 'spatial match-mismatch' dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator-prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.

Precipitation and temperature timings underlying bioclimatic variables rearrange under climate change globally

Modeling how climate change may affect the potential distribution of species and communities typically utilizes bioclimatic variables. Distribution predictions rely on the values of the bioclimatic variable (e.g., precipitation of the wettest quarter). However, the ecological meaning of most of these variables depends strongly on the within-year position of a specific climate period (SCP), for example, the wettest quarter of the year, which is often overlooked. Our aim was to determine how the within-year position of the SCPs would shift (SCP shift) in reaction to climate change in a global context. We calculated the deviations of the future within-year position of the SCPs relative to the reference period. We used four future time periods, four scenarios, and four CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to provide an ensemble of expectations regarding SCP shifts and locate the spatial hotspots of the shifts. Also, the size and frequency of the SCP shifts were subjected to linear models to evaluate the importance of the impact modeler's decision on time period, scenario, and GCM. We found ample examples of SCP shifts exceeding 2 months, with 6-month shifts being predicted as well. Many areas in the tropics are expected to experience both temperature and precipitation-related shifts, but precipitation-related shifts are abundantly predicted for the temperate and arctic zones as well. The combined shifts at the Equator reinforce the likelihood of the emergence of no-analogue climates there. The shifts become more pronounced as time and scenario progress, while GCMs could not be ranked in a clear order in this respect. For most SCPs, the modeler's decision on the GCM was the least important, while the choice of time period was typically more important than the choice of scenario. Future predictive distribution models should account for SCP shifts and incorporate the phenomenon in the modeling efforts.

Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate pattern with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). In contrast to the widespread decline in the amphibian population, the future scenarios projected an increase in most amphibian habitats on the QTP, accompanied by migration to higher elevations or latitudes under three climatic projections (SSP 1-2.6, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Average annual precipitation was the most crucial environmental variable impacting the future distribution of amphibians. The findings indicate that amphibians would flourish under climate change on the QTP, which is of great significance for the protection of amphibians and biodiversity on the QTP.

Oak seedling microbiome assembly under climate warming and drought

Despite that climate change is currently one of the most pervasive challenges, its effects on the plant-associated microbiome is still poorly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the independent and combinatory effect of climate warming and drought on the microbiome assembly of oak from seed to seedling. In a multifactorial experimental set up, acorns were subjected to different temperatures (15 °C, 20 °C, and 25 °C) and soil moisture levels (drought (15%) and control (60%)) from germination until the seedling stage, after which the bacterial and fungal communities associated to the rhizosphere and phyllosphere were characterized by amplicon sequencing and qPCR. The results showed a stronger effect of temperature on fungal than on bacterial diversity and the effect was more pronounced in the phyllosphere. Under drought condition, temperature had a significantly negative effect on phyllosphere fungal diversity. In the rhizosphere, temperature had a significant effect on the fungal community composition which was primarily caused by species turnover. Regardless of temperature, Actinobacteriota was significantly enriched in drought, a group of bacteria known to increase plant drought tolerance. This study provides new insights into the effect of climate change on the plant microbiome in natural ecosystems.

Microplastics in Arctic waters of the Finnish Sámi area

We explored the presence of microplastics in the Finnish Arctic Sámi home area. A dialogue between Indigenous knowledge and scientific field work produced data about microplastics in remote wilderness aquatic ecosystems. Methods included geographical Indigenous knowledge analysis, water sampling with fraction filtration, and imaging Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The MPs found were small; the mean particle size was 126 ± 121 μm. Particle concentrations of MPs in freshwater and marine samples varied between 45 and 423 MPs m-3 and the most common polymer types were polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyethylene terephthalate. In conclusion, because microplastics are present even in the wilderness areas, their abundance should be monitored to assess plastic pollution in the relatively pristine Arctic environments. Sámi Indigenous knowledge proved to be a beneficial and important initiator, because locals recognize the possible sources and transport pathways of plastic litter, and practical sampling sites in the complex freshwater systems of the area.

Microfluidics for macrofluidics: addressing marine-ecosystem challenges in an era of climate change

Climate change presents a mounting challenge with profound impacts on ocean and marine ecosystems, leading to significant environmental, health, and economic consequences. Microfluidic technologies, with their unique capabilities, play a crucial role in understanding and addressing the marine aspects of the climate crisis. These technologies leverage quantitative, precise, and miniaturized formats that enhance the capabilities of sensing, imaging, and molecular tools. Such advancements are critical for monitoring marine systems under the stress of climate change and elucidating their response mechanisms. This review explores microfluidic technologies employed both in laboratory settings for testing and in the field for monitoring purposes. We delve into the application of miniaturized tools in evaluating ocean-based solutions to climate change, thus offering fresh perspectives from the solution-oriented end of the spectrum. We further aim to synthesize recent developments in technology around critical questions concerning the ocean environment and marine ecosystems, while discussing the potential for future innovations in microfluidic technology. The purpose of this review is to enhance understanding of current capabilities and assist researchers interested in mitigating the effects of climate change to identify new avenues for tackling the pressing issues posed by climate change in marine ecosystems.

Habitat for Coilia nasus in southern Zhejiang Province, China, based on a maximum entropy model

As an important fishery resource and endangered species, studying the habitat of Coilia nasus (C. nasus) is highly significant. This study used fishery survey data from southern Zhejiang coastal waters from 2016 to 2020, employing a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to map the habitat distribution of C. nasus. Model performance was evaluated using two metrics: the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for the training and test sets and true skill statistics (TSS). This study aimed to predict the habitat distribution of C. nasus and explore how environmental variables influence habitat suitability. The results indicated that the models for each season had strong predictive performance, with AUC values above 0.8 and TSS values exceeding 0.6, indicating that they could accurately predict the presence of C. nasus. In the study area, C. nasus was primarily found in brackish or marine waters near bays and coastal islands. Among all environmental factors, salinity (S) and bottom temperature (BOT) had the highest correlations with habitat distribution, although these correlations varied across seasons. The findings of this study provide empirical evidence and a reference for the conservation and management of C. nasus and for the designation of its protected areas.

Deep mitigation for trade-embodied carbon emissions among the Belt and Road Initiative countries

The frequent trade within and beyond the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has prospered the economy but has also expanded carbon emissions. Here, through a multi-regional environmental input-output analysis framework, we explore the patterns and inter-sectoral linkage of trade-embodied carbon emissions among BRI countries during 2015-2019. Then, a dynamic data envelopment analysis model considering carbon inequality as a non-discretionary input is constructed to assess the carbon emission efficiency of the identified key sector. We find that trade-embodied carbon emissions in the BRI steadily increased during 2015-2019. The manufacturing sector was identified as the key sector, exhibiting an overall efficiency of 0.6268 on average, with significant efficiency disparities. Moreover, we validate the positive role of efficiency enhancement in carbon emission mitigation, as well as the negative moderating effect of carbon inequality. Overall, this study provides optimal collaboration and initiatives to mitigate trade-embodied carbon emissions among BRI countries deeply.

Climatic variations and Fasciola: a review of impacts across the parasite life cycle

Fasciolosis, caused by the liver fluke Fasciola spp., is a significant parasitic disease of livestock and humans worldwide. Fasciola transmission and life cycle are highly dependent on climatic conditions, especially temperature and humidity. This dependency has gained significance in the context of ongoing climate change. This literature review examined evidence on the effects of temperature variability on the developmental stages of Fasciola spp. and the snail intermediate hosts. We reviewed free larval stages of Fasciola spp. development, as well as snail intermediate hosts, while investigating the climate-related factors influencing each stage. We found that Fasciola spp. egg hatching and development were inhibited below 10 °C and optimal between 20 and 30 °C, miracidia hatching time decreased with higher temperatures and cercarial shedding by snail hosts accelerated around 27 °C. Further, metacercarial viability declined at higher temperatures but was prolonged by higher humidity. Snail intermediate host growth rates peaked at 25 °C, and their susceptibility to Fasciola infection depends on temperature, underscoring its importance in transmission dynamics. Overall, the Fasciola life cycle and snail host development exhibit stage-specific temperature thresholds, indicating a complex relationship between temperature fluctuations and parasite transmission potential. This research highlights the key role of temperature and humidity on Fasciola spp. and snail development, shedding light on the potential consequences of climate change on their survival, development, and disease transmission. Data limitations, primarily from the scarcity of high-resolution climate-related experiments, should drive future research to enhance predictive models and deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on this parasitic disease.

Identifying protected areas in biodiversity hotspots at risk from climate and human-induced compound events for conserving threatened species

Anthropogenic pressure in areas of biodiversity importance erodes the integrity of the ecosystems they harbour, making features of biodiversity less buffered against extreme climatic events. We define the combination of these disturbances as compound events. We assessed compound event risk in protected areas (PAs) applying a spatial framework guided by criteria and quantitative thresholds associated with exposure to cyclones, drought, and intense human pressure. This assessment was used in a relational matrix to classify PAs with different risk of compound event occurrence. We identified PAs of higher conservation concern by quantifying the extent of human pressure in their surrounding landscape while harbouring large numbers of threatened vertebrate species. Of the 39,694 PAs assessed, very high risk of compound events was determined for 6965 PAs (17.5 %) related to cyclones and human pressure (mainly island hotspots), 6367 PAs (16 %) related to droughts and human pressure (island and continental hotspots), and 2031 PAs (5 %) to cyclones, drought and human pressure (mainly in island hotspots). From the subset of 2031 PAs assessed at very high risk, we identified 239 PAs of higher conservation concern distributed predominantly in the Caribbean Islands, Japan, North America Coastal Plain, Philippines, and Southwest Australia. Our work highlights PAs in the biodiversity hotspots where high risk of compound event occurrence poses a greater threat to species. We encourage researchers to adapt and apply this framework across other globally significant sites for conserving biodiversity to identify high risk-prone areas, and prevent further biodiversity decline.

Predicting Conservation Status of Testudoformes under Climate Change Using Habitat Models

Climate change promotes variations in distribution ranges, potentially leading to biodiversity loss and increased extinction risks for species. It is crucial to investigate these variations under future climate change scenarios for effective biodiversity conservation. Here, we studied the future distribution ranges of 268 Testudoformes species under climate change using habitat models, specifically species distribution models (SDMs), to assess their conservation status. Our results have indicated that over half of species are projected to experience declines in their potential distribution ranges under two scenarios. In particular, we found that three critically endangered species-Three-striped roofed turtle (Batagur dhongoka), Durango mud turtle (Kinosternon durangoense), and Colombian mud turtle (Kinosternon dunni)-displayed extraction of their distribution ranges and faced extinction under global climate change. Additionally, our analysis revealed that the potential distribution ranges of some species might increase under future climate scenarios. However, these findings must be interpreted with caution as they do not account for other significant factors such as biological invasions, population structure, land-use change, anthropogenic disturbances, and inter-organism interrelationships. Future studies should incorporate these factors to provide a more comprehensive assessment of extinction risks. Our findings suggest that climate change, in conjunction with habitat degradation and human activities, must be considered when assessing the extinction risks of Testudoformes.

Experimental Evolution in a Warming World: The Omics Era

A comprehensive understanding of the genetic mechanisms that shape species responses to thermal variation is essential for more accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Experimental evolution with high-throughput resequencing approaches (evolve and resequence) is a highly effective tool that has been increasingly employed to elucidate the genetic basis of adaptation. The number of thermal evolve and resequence studies is rising, yet there is a dearth of efforts to integrate this new wealth of knowledge. Here, we review this literature showing how these studies have contributed to increase our understanding on the genetic basis of thermal adaptation. We identify two major trends: highly polygenic basis of thermal adaptation and general lack of consistency in candidate targets of selection between studies. These findings indicate that the adaptive responses to specific environments are rather independent. A review of the literature reveals several gaps in the existing research. Firstly, there is a paucity of studies done with organisms of diverse taxa. Secondly, there is a need to apply more dynamic and ecologically relevant thermal environments. Thirdly, there is a lack of studies that integrate genomic changes with changes in life history and behavioral traits. Addressing these issues would allow a more in-depth understanding of the relationship between genotype and phenotype. We highlight key methodological aspects that can address some of the limitations and omissions identified. These include the need for greater standardization of methodologies and the utilization of new technologies focusing on the integration of genomic and phenotypic variation in the context of thermal adaptation.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Interspecific competition shapes bird species' distributions along tropical precipitation gradients

The hypothesis that species' ranges are limited by interspecific competition has motivated decades of debate, but a general answer remains elusive. Here we test this hypothesis for lowland tropical birds by examining species' precipitation niche breadths. We focus on precipitation because it-not temperature-is the dominant climate variable that shapes the biota of the lowland tropics. We used 3.6 million fine-scale citizen science records from eBird to measure species' precipitation niche breadths in 19 different regions across the globe. Consistent with the predictions of the interspecific competition hypothesis, multiple lines of evidence show that species have narrower precipitation niches in regions with more species. This means species inhabit more specialized precipitation niches in species-rich regions. We predict this niche specialization should make tropical species in high diversity regions disproportionately vulnerable to changes in precipitation regimes; preliminary empirical evidence is consistent with this prediction.

Aquatic connectivity: challenges and solutions in a changing climate

The challenge of managing aquatic connectivity in a changing climate is exacerbated in the presence of additional anthropogenic stressors, social factors, and economic drivers. Here we discuss these issues in the context of structural and functional connectivity for aquatic biodiversity, specifically fish, in both the freshwater and marine realms. We posit that adaptive management strategies that consider shifting baselines and the socio-ecological implications of climate change will be required to achieve management objectives. The role of renewable energy expansion, particularly hydropower, is critically examined for its impact on connectivity. We advocate for strategic spatial planning that incorporates nature-positive solutions, ensuring climate mitigation efforts are harmonized with biodiversity conservation. We underscore the urgency of integrating robust scientific modelling with stakeholder values to define clear, adaptive management objectives. Finally, we call for innovative monitoring and predictive decision-making tools to navigate the uncertainties inherent in a changing climate, with the goal of ensuring the resilience and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological genetics of isolated loach populations indicate compromised adaptive potential

Many endangered species live in fragmented and isolated populations with low genetic variability, signs of inbreeding, and small effective population sizes - all features elevating their extinction risk. The flat-headed loach (Oreonectes platycephalus), a small noemacheilid fish, is widely across southern China, but only in the headwaters of hillstreams; as a result, they are spatially isolated from conspecific populations. We surveyed single nucleotide polymorphisms in 16 Hong Kong populations of O. platycephalus to determine whether loach populations from different streams were genetically isolated from each other, showed low levels of genetic diversity, signs of inbreeding, and had small contemporary effective population sizes. Estimates of average observed heterozygosity (HO = 0.0473), average weighted nucleotide diversity (πw = 0.0546) and contemporary effective population sizes (Ne = 10.2 ~ 129.8) were very low, and several populations showed clear signs of inbreeding as judged from relatedness estimates. The degree of genetic differentiation among populations was very high (average FST = 0.668), even over short geographic distances (<1.5 km), with clear patterns of isolation by distance. These results suggest that Hong Kong populations of O. platycephalus have experienced strong genetic drift and loss of genetic variability because sea-level rise after the last glaciation reduced connectedness among paleodrainages, isolating populations in headwaters. All this, together with the fact that the levels of genetic diversity and contemporary effective population sizes within O. platycephalus populations are lower than most other freshwater fishes, suggests that they face high local extinction risk and have limited capacity for future adaptation.

Establishing a protected area network in Xinlong with other effective area-based conservation measures

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal to biodiversity conservation, yet their efficacy is compromised by insufficient funding and management. So-called other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) present a paradigm shift and address PA limitations. Such measures can expand conservation areas, enhance connectivity, and improve the existing system. To assess the conservation status of biodiversity in Tibetan cultural areas in China, we investigated the spatial distribution of wildlife vulnerable to human disturbance (large- and medium-sized mammals and terrestrial birds) in Xinlong, a traditional Tibetan cultural area. In particular, we compared a PA (Xionglongxi Nature Reserve) and OECMs targeting species conservation. We also investigated the relationship of wildlife with human temporal and spatial activities. The OECMs complemented areas not covered by PA, especially in rich understory biodiversity regions. More species in OECMs tolerated human presence than species in the PA. Existing biodiversity reserves failed to cover areas of high conservation value in Tibet and offered limited protection capacity. Expanding PAs and identifying OECMs improved Xinlong's system by covering most biodiversity hotspots. Building on the tradition of wildlife conservation in Tibet, harnessing OECMs may be an effective means of augmenting biodiversity conservation capacity. We recommend further evaluation of OECMs effectiveness and coverage in Tibetan area as a way to enhance the current PA system.

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

Ecological genomics in the Northern krill uncovers loci for local adaptation across ocean basins

Krill are vital as food for many marine animals but also impacted by global warming. To learn how they and other zooplankton may adapt to a warmer world we studied local adaptation in the widespread Northern krill (Meganyctiphanes norvegica). We assemble and characterize its large genome and compare genome-scale variation among 74 specimens from the colder Atlantic Ocean and warmer Mediterranean Sea. The 19 Gb genome likely evolved through proliferation of retrotransposons, now targeted for inactivation by extensive DNA methylation, and contains many duplicated genes associated with molting and vision. Analysis of 760 million SNPs indicates extensive homogenizing gene-flow among populations. Nevertheless, we detect signatures of adaptive divergence across hundreds of genes, implicated in photoreception, circadian regulation, reproduction and thermal tolerance, indicating polygenic adaptation to light and temperature. The top gene candidate for ecological adaptation was nrf-6, a lipid transporter with a Mediterranean variant that may contribute to early spring reproduction. Such variation could become increasingly important for fitness in Atlantic stocks. Our study underscores the widespread but uneven distribution of adaptive variation, necessitating characterization of genetic variation among natural zooplankton populations to understand their adaptive potential, predict risks and support ocean conservation in the face of climate change.

Greenhouse gases emissions and global climate change: Examining the influence of CO2, CH4, and N2O

An in-depth analysis of the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in climate change is examined here along with their diverse sources, including the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and industrial processes. Key GHG components such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are considered, along with data on emissions across various economic sectors. The consequences of climate change are also highlighted, ranging from more frequent and intense extreme weather events to rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems and human health. The industrial revolution and unrestricted use of fossil fuels are key factors leading to an increase in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Global efforts to reduce emissions are considered, starting with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and culminating in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The limited effectiveness of early initiatives is underscored, emphasizing the significant importance of the Paris Agreement that provides a global framework for establishing goals to reduce GHG emissions by country. The Green Climate Fund and other international financial mechanisms are also considered as essential tools for financing sustainable projects in developing countries. The global community faces the challenge and necessity for more ambitious efforts to achieve the set goals for reducing GHG emissions. Successful strategies are examined by Sweden, Costa Rica, and Denmark to achieve zero GHG emissions that integrate renewable energy sources and technologies. The importance of global cooperation for creating a sustainable future is also emphasized.

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

Toward a sustainability performance management framework

Although the United Nations (UN) has continued to introduce the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to address global sustainability, the world is becoming less sustainable. This is not surprising since our knowledge about effective sustainability performance management is scanty. The present study attempts to develop a sustainability performance management framework to deal effectively with the prevailing sustainability problems. It starts by introducing the "wicked" nature of sustainability problems, followed by a research methodology to build the sustainability performance management framework. The review suggests that the framework's components are related to the organizational culture of sustainability, the sustainability strategy employed by the firm, the corporate sustainability practices implemented, and the resulting outputs and outcomes in terms of sustainability performance. The connections between these elements are fundamentally critical, along with a feedback loop to address the dynamic, wicked sustainability problems. Finally, a Sustainability Performance Management framework and its associated propositions are derived, followed by future research directions and practical implications.

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

On the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions for reducing disaster risk

The potential of ecosystem-based interventions, also known as Nature-based Solutions (NbS), for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is now recognized by major national policies and international framework agreements. However, there is limited scientific evidence about their economic viability and equity impacts. We examined English-language peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2021, which undertook economic evaluations of NbS for DRR and CCA. Based on our results, 71 % of studies indicated that NbS have consistently proven to be a cost-effective approach to mitigating hazards and 24 % of studies found NbS cost-effective under certain conditions. The ecosystem-based interventions most frequently found effective in mitigating hazards are associated with mangroves (80 %), forests (77 %), and coastal ecosystems (73 %). Studies comparing the cost-effectiveness of NbS and engineering-based solutions for mitigating certain hazards showed that NbS are no less effective than engineering-based solutions. Among these studies, 65 % found that NbS are always more effective in attenuating hazards compared to engineering-based solutions and 26 % found that NbS are partially more effective. Our findings illustrate a range of factors, including the geographic locations of the NbS analyzed, their contribution to the restoration and increase of biodiversity, their property rights structure, their source of financing, and the economic methodologies employed to assess cost-effectiveness and distributional effects. The geographic location of the NbS observations included in this analysis was examined considering global projected temperature and precipitation changes.

Innovative and practical tools for monitoring and assessing biodiversity status and impacts of multiple human pressures in marine systems

Human activities at sea can produce pressures and cumulative effects on ecosystem components that need to be monitored and assessed in a cost-effective manner. Five Horizon European projects have joined forces to collaboratively increase our knowledge and skills to monitor and assess the ocean in an innovative way, assisting managers and policy-makers in taking decisions to maintain sustainable activities at sea. Here, we present and discuss the status of some methods revised during a summer school, aiming at better management of coasts and seas. We include novel methods to monitor the coastal and ocean waters (e.g. environmental DNA, drones, imaging and artificial intelligence, climate modelling and spatial planning) and innovative tools to assess the status (e.g. cumulative impacts assessment, multiple pressures, Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool (NEAT), ecosystem services assessment or a new unifying approach). As a concluding remark, some of the most important challenges ahead are assessing the pros and cons of novel methods, comparing them with benchmark technologies and integrating these into long-standing time series for data continuity. This requires transition periods and careful planning, which can be covered through an intense collaboration of current and future European projects on marine biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Vegetation redistribution is predicted to intensify soil organic carbon loss under future climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau

Vegetation redistribution may bring unexpected climate-soil carbon cycling in terrestrial biomes. However, whether and how vegetation redistribution alters the soil carbon pool under climate change is still poorly understood on the Tibetan Plateau. Here, we applied the G-Range model to simulate the cover of herbs, shrubs and trees, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil organic carbon density (SOCD) at the depth of 60 cm on Tibetan Plateau for the individual years 2020 and 2060, using climate projection for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with the RegCM4.6 model system. Vegetation redistribution was defined as the transitions in bare ground, herbs, shrubs and trees between 2020 and 2060, with approximately 57.9 % (RCP4.5) and 59 % (RCP8.5) of the area will redistribute vegetation over the whole Tibetan Plateau. The vegetation cover will increase by about 2.4 % (RCP4.5) and 1.9 % (RCP8.5), while the NPP and SOCD will decrease by about -14.3 g C m-2 yr-1 and -907 g C m-2 (RCP4.5), and -1.8 g C m-2 yr-1and -920 g C m-2 (RCP8.5). Shrubs and trees will expand in the east, and herbs will expand in the northwest part of the Plateau. These areas are projected to be hotspots with greater SOCD reduction in response to future climate change, and will include lower net plant carbon input due to the negative NPP. Our study indicates that the SOC pool will become a carbon source under increased air temperature and rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau by 2060, especially for the area with vegetation redistribution. These results revealed the potential risk of vegetation redistribution under climate change in alpine ecosystems, indicating the policymakers need to pay attention on the vegetation redistribution to mitigate the soil carbon emission and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality on the Tibetan Plateau.

Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches

The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.

Quantifying co-extinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming

Climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being, known as ecosystem services. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effects of climate change on species and ecosystem services, leaving a gap in understanding the indirect impacts resulting from changes in species interactions within complex ecosystems. This knowledge gap is significant because the loss of a species in a food web can lead to additional species losses or "co-extinctions," particularly when the species most impacted by climate change are also the species that play critical roles in food web persistence or provide ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework to investigate the relationships among species vulnerability to climate change, their roles within the food web, their contributions to ecosystem services, and the overall persistence of these systems and services in the face of climate-induced species losses. To do this, we assess the robustness of food webs and their associated ecosystem services to climate-driven species extinctions in eight empirical rocky intertidal food webs. Across food webs, we find that highly connected species are not the most vulnerable to climate change. However, we find species that directly provide ecosystem services are more vulnerable to climate change and more connected than species that do not directly provide services, which results in ecosystem service provision collapsing before food webs. Overall, we find that food webs are more robust to climate change than the ecosystem services they provide and show that combining species roles in food webs and services with their vulnerability to climate change offer predictions about the impacts of co-extinctions for future food web and ecosystem service persistence. However, these conclusions are limited by data availability and quality, underscoring the need for more comprehensive data collection on linking species roles in interaction networks and their vulnerabilities to climate change.