The epidemic of pre-diabetes: the medicine and the politics

Contribution of body mass index, waist circumference, and 25-OH-D3 on the risk of pre-diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population

This study aimed to investigate the associations between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), 25-hydroxy-vitamin D3 (25-OH-D3), and the risk of pre-diabetes mellitus (PDM), as well as their predictive values in identifying PDM. A total of 1688 participants were included in this cross-sectional investigation. Spearman's correlation analysis was used to assess the relationships between candidate indicators and PDM. The impact of indicators on PDM risk was determined by multivariate logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of indicators. Our study indicated a positive correlation between WC, BMI, and 25-OH-D3 and PDM. WC (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.04-1.06, p < 0.001), BMI (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.15, p < 0.001), and 25-OH-D3 (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02, p = 0.037) and an increased risk of PDM. Additionally, the ROC analysis demonstrated that WC (AUC = 0.651, Specificity = 55.00%, Sensitivity = 67.900%) had a higher diagnostic value for predicting PDM compared to the other variables (BMI, 25-OH-D3, TG, TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and UA). A cut-off value of WC > 80.5 cm predicted PDM with both good sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, the cut-off value of waist circumference (WC) for men with prediabetes was 86.500, while for women with prediabetes, it was 76.500.

The direct and spillover effects of diabetes diagnosis on lifestyle behaviours

Using blood sample data we exploit an arbitrary cut-off of diabetes risk and through a fuzzy regression kink design we estimate the effect of a diabetes diagnosis on own and partner health-related behaviours. Diabetes diagnosis increases the probability of exercising, both for those diagnosed with diabetes and their partner. We also conduct mediation analysis which suggests that joint household participation is the channel behind this effect. Our results have significant implications for the understanding of the channels that induce behavioural change, and household decision making, as well as, for the evaluation of diabetes related policies.

Cost saving analysis of prediabetes intervention modalities in comparison with inaction using Markov state transition model-A multiregional case study

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes management is a priority for policymakers globally, to avoid/delay type 2 diabetes (T2D) and reduce severe, costly health consequences. Countries moving from low to middle income are most at risk from the T2D "epidemic" and may find implementing preventative measures challenging; yet prevention has largely been evaluated in developed countries.

METHODS

Markov cohort simulations explored costs and benefits of various prediabetes management approaches, expressed as "savings" to the public health care system, for three countries with high prediabetes prevalence and contrasting economic status (Poland, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam). Two scenarios were compared up to 15 y: "inaction" (no prediabetes intervention) and "intervention" with metformin extended release (ER), intensive lifestyle change (ILC), ILC with metformin (ER), or ILC with metformin (ER) "titration."

RESULTS

T2D was the highest-cost health state at all time horizons due to resource use, and inaction produced the highest T2D costs, ranging from 9% to 34% of total health care resource costs. All interventions reduced T2D versus inaction, the most effective being ILC + metformin (ER) "titration" (39% reduction at 5 y). Metformin (ER) was the only strategy that produced net saving across the time horizon; however, relative total health care system costs of other interventions vs inaction declined over time up to 15 y. Viet Nam was most sensitive to cost and parameter changes via a one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin (ER) and lifestyle interventions for prediabetes offer promise for reducing T2D incidence. Metformin (ER) could reduce T2D patient numbers and health care costs, given concerns regarding adherence in the context of funding/reimbursement challenges for lifestyle interventions.

Kairos in diagnostics

Kairos has been a key concept in medicine for millennia and is frequently understood as "the right time" in relation to treatment. In this study we scrutinize kairos in the context of diagnostics. This has become highly topical as technological developments have caused diagnostics to be performed ever earlier in the disease development. Detecting risk factors, precursors, and predictors of disease (in biomarkers, pre-disease, and pre-pre-disease) has resulted in too early diagnoses, i.e., overdiagnoses. Nonetheless, despite vast advances in science and technology, diagnoses also come too late. Accordingly, timing diagnostics right is crucial. In this article we start with giving a brief overview of the etymology and general use of the concepts of kairos and diagnosis. Then we delimit kairos in diagnostics by analysing "too early" and "too late" diagnosis and by scrutinizing various phases of diagnostics. This leads us to define kairos of diagnostics as the time when there is potential for sufficient information for making a diagnosis that is most helpful for the person. It allows us to conclude that kairos is as important in diagnostics as in therapeutics.

Knowledge, attitude, and practice of pre-diabetic older people regarding pre-diabetes

BACKGROUND

One of the risk factors of diabetes is the pre-diabetes stage which is significantly prevalent in older people. Knowledge, attitude, and practice of the pre-diabetic stage are of great importance and can decrease complications. The present study aimed to determine the knowledge, attitude, and practice of the pre-diabetic older people.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted from April 2022 to August 2022 on 219 pre-diabetic older people referring to Sina Hospital in Tabriz, one of the most populated cities in the northwest of Iran. Data were collected using questionnaires of Knowledge, Attitude, Practice-Prediabetes Assessment Questionnaire (KAP-PAQ). The data were analyzed by SPSS 21.

RESULTS

The mean scores of knowledge (in the range of 0-17), attitude (in the range of -10, + 10), and practice (in the range of 0-26) were 1.72 ± 1.0, 2.24 ± 1.92, and 5.76 ± 2.61, respectively. The older people's knowledge and practice levels in the pre-diabetes stage were low and about 50% of them had negative views. According to the Spearman correlation test, there was a positive significant relationship between the older people's knowledge and practice (p < 0.001, r = 0.234).

CONCLUSIONS

The older people in the pre-diabetes stage had low knowledge and attitude and a negative viewpoint towards correcting lifestyle on diet, exercising and physical activity, weight control, diagnostic and screening methods. Increased knowledge about pre-diabetes and strengthened positive attitude towards correcting lifestyle through counseling as well as empowering the pre-diabetic older people can increase the efficiency of pre-diabetes prevention and control programs and prevent its progression to the diabetes stage.

Metformin prescription for U.S. veterans with prediabetes, 2010-2019

Affecting an estimated 88 million Americans, prediabetes increases the risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and independently, cardiovascular disease, retinopathy, nephropathy, and neuropathy. Nevertheless, little is known about the use of metformin for diabetes prevention among patients in the Veterans Health Administration, the largest integrated healthcare system in the U.S. This is a retrospective observational cohort study of the proportion of Veterans with incident prediabetes who were prescribed metformin at the Veterans Health Administration from October 2010 to September 2019. Among 1,059,605 Veterans with incident prediabetes, 12,009 (1.1%) were prescribed metformin during an average 3.4 years of observation after diagnosis. Metformin prescribing was marginally higher (1.6%) among those with body mass index (BMI) ≥35 kg/m2, age <60 years, HbA1c≥6.0%, or those with a history of gestational diabetes, all subgroups at a higher risk for progression to T2DM. In a multivariable model, metformin was more likely to be prescribed for those with BMI ≥35 kg/m2 incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.6 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.1-3.3], female sex IRR, 2.4 [95% CI: 1.8-3.3], HbA1c≥6% IRR, 1.93 [95% CI: 1.5-2.4], age <60 years IRR, 1.7 [95% CI: 1.3-2.3], hypertriglyceridemia IRR, 1.5 [95% CI: 1.2-1.9], hypertension IRR, 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-2.1], Major Depressive Disorder IRR, 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-2.0], or schizophrenia IRR, 2.1 [95% CI: 1.2-3.8]. Over 20% of Veterans with prediabetes attended a comprehensive structured lifestyle modification clinic or program. Among Veterans with prediabetes, metformin was prescribed to 1.1% overall, a proportion that marginally increased to 1.6% in the subset of individuals at highest risk for progression to T2DM.

Evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions was assessed: a metaepidemiological study using the 'Fair Umpire' framework

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the strength of the evidence for, and the extent of, overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We systematically searched for studies investigating overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions. Using the 'Fair Umpire' framework to assess the evidence that cases diagnosed by one diagnostic strategy but not by another may be overdiagnosed, two reviewers independently identified whether a Fair Umpire-a disease-specific clinical outcome, a test result or risk factor that can determine whether an additional case does or does not have disease-was present. Disease-specific clinical outcomes provide the strongest evidence for overdiagnosis, follow-up or concurrent tests provide weaker evidence, and risk factors provide only weak evidence. Studies without a Fair Umpire provide the weakest evidence of overdiagnosis.

RESULTS

Of 132 studies, 47 (36%) did not include a Fair Umpire to adjudicate additional diagnoses. When present, the most common Umpire was a single test or risk factor (32% of studies), with disease-specific clinical outcome Umpires used in only 21% of studies. Estimates of overdiagnosis included 43-45% of screen-detected acute abdominal aneurysms, 54% of cases of acute kidney injury, and 77% of cases of oligohydramnios in pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Much of the current evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions is weak. Application of the framework can guide development of robust studies to detect and estimate overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions, ultimately informing evidence-based policies to reduce it.

Making prediabetes visible in primary health care: a qualitative study of health care professionals' perspectives

BACKGROUND

People with prediabetes are at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes and its complications, such as cardiovascular diseases and premature mortality. Primary prevention and health maintenance are therefore imperative. Evidence has shown that prediabetes can be prevented or delayed with behavioural change, mainly in eating habits and physical activity. Interventions that use a person-centered approach can lead to improvements in self-management, quality of life, and health outcomes. Nevertheless, there is a need for further research that engages healthcare professionals and people with prediabetes in constructing and implementing preventive programs. The purpose of this study is to explore and describe how healthcare professionals perceive prediabetes, the current challenges in its detection and treatment, and what is needed to improve quality of care.

METHODS

This qualitative study was conducted in Region Stockholm. A total of 26 primary health care professionals participated in individual interviews: 15 diabetes nurses and/or district nurses, five general practitioners, five dietitians, and one physiotherapist. Interview transcripts were analyzed with qualitative content analysis.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed two main themes that emphasize the need to make prediabetes more visible in primary health care. Despite the healthcare professionals' engagement and their motivation to improve prediabetes care, ad hoc practices and the absence of clear screening guidelines and referral pathways made it harder to focus on primary prevention. Supporting professionals in implementing structured care for people with prediabetes might encourage more efficient interprofessional collaboration and contribute to better strategies for promoting behavioural change.

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing prediabetes care guidelines, supporting health care professionals´ knowledge and skills in prediabetes care, and implementing interprofessional referral pathways are some steps to enhance prediabetes detection and care precedence in primary health care. These steps could lead to more preventive care and ensure patient safety and health care equity.

Diagnostic testing in children: A qualitative study of pediatricians' considerations

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Studies in adult medicine have shown that physicians base testing decisions on the patient's clinical condition but also consider other factors, including local practice or patient expectations. In pediatrics, physicians and parents jointly decide on behalf of a (young) child. This might demand more explicit and more complex deliberations, with sometimes conflicting interests. We explored pediatricians' considerations in diagnostic test ordering and the factors that influence their deliberation.

METHOD

We performed in-depth, semistructured interviews with a purposively selected heterogeneous sample of 20 Dutch pediatricians. We analyzed transcribed interviews inductively using a constant comparative approach, and clustered data across interviews to derive common themes.

RESULTS

Pediatricians perceived test-related burden in children higher compared with adults, and reported that avoiding an unjustified burden causes them to be more restrictive and deliberate in test ordering. They felt conflicted when parents desired testing or when guidelines recommended diagnostic tests pediatricians perceived as unnecessary. When parents demanded testing, they would explore parental concern, educate parents about harms and alternative explanations of symptoms, and advocate watchful waiting. Yet they reported sometimes performing tests to appease parents or to comply with guidelines, because of feared personal consequences in the case of adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

We obtained an overview of the considerations that are weighed in pediatric test decisions. The comparatively strong focus on prevention of harm motivates pediatricians to critically appraise the added value of testing and drivers of low-value testing. Pediatricians' relatively restrictive approach to testing could provide an example for other disciplines. Improved guidelines and physician and patient education could help to withstand the perceived pressure to test.

NT-proBNP and cardiovascular event risk in individuals with prediabetes undergoing cardiovascular evaluation

AIMS

Cardiovascular risk assessment beyond traditional risk factors in subjects with prediabetes is not well-established. Here, we evaluated the utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in predicting incident adverse cardiovascular outcomes in prediabetic subjects.

METHODS

NT-proBNP was analyzed in 3,235 stable subjects with prediabetes undergoing cardiovascular risk evaluation and followed for both 3-year major adverse cardiac events (MACE; death, myocardial infarction, stroke), and 5-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Using Cox proportional hazard models, we found that plasma NT-proBNP was associated with incident (3-year) MACE risk (Q4 vs Q1, HR 6.04 [95%CI 4.17-8.76], P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality risk (HR 8.64 [95%CI 5.78-12.9], P < 0.001). These associations remained significant after adjustments for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, multiple indices of glycemic control, cardiovascular disease (CVD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and medication (e.g. diuretic) use (adjusted HR for 3-year MACE 2.65 [95% CI 1.16-6.05], P < 0.05; and adjusted HR for 5-year mortality 3.45 [95% CI 1.42-8.39], P < 0.01). NT-proBNP significantly improved the clinical prognostic value (C-statistic, NRI, IDI) for both 3-year MACE and 5-year death when added to models.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP independently predicts increased long-term MACE and mortality risks in prediabetic subjects, and may help identify those for whom more aggressive global preventive efforts are indicated.

Temporal uncertainty in disease diagnosis

There is a profound paradox in modern medical knowledge production: The more we know, the more we know that we (still) do not know. Nowhere is this more visible than in diagnostics and early detection of disease. As we identify ever more markers, predictors, precursors, and risk factors of disease ever earlier, we realize that we need knowledge about whether they develop into something experienced by the person and threatening to the person's health. This study investigates how advancements in science and technology alter one type of uncertainty, i.e., temporal uncertainty of disease diagnosis. As diagnosis is related to anamnesis and prognosis it identifies how uncertainties in all these fields are interconnected. In particular, the study finds that uncertainty in disease diagnosis has become more subject to prognostic uncertainty because diagnosis is more connected to technologically detected indicators and less closely connected to manifest and experienced disease. These temporal uncertainties pose basic epistemological and ethical challenges as they can result in overdiagnosis, overtreatment, unnecessary anxiety and fear, useless and even harmful diagnostic odysseys, as well as vast opportunity costs. The point is not to stop our quest for knowledge about disease but to encourage real diagnostic improvements that help more people in ever better manner as early as possible. To do so, we need to pay careful attention to specific types of temporal uncertainty in modern diagnostics.

Trends in cardiovascular burden and mortality among adults with prediabetes in the US, 1999-2018

BACKGROUND

Trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality have been reported among US adults with diabetes, but not among those with prediabetes. This study aimed to examine and compare the trends in CVD risk factors and mortality in US adults with diabetes and prediabetes.

METHODS

In this serial, cross-sectional study, medical records of prediabetic patients from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) among adults aged 18 years or older were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

Data on 17,193 individuals including 7803 with diabetes and 9390 with prediabetes were analyzed from 1999-2000 to 2017-2018. A similar non-linear trend in the mean blood pressure (p = .991) and plasma fasting glucose (p = .068) was observed among the population with diabetes and prediabetes. The mean hemoglobin A1c decreased from 7.5% to 7.1% in diabetes and the trend was different from that in prediabetes (p = .004). Among both groups, a significant decline in the mean total cholesterol was identified while there was a difference in the trend (p = .003). The prevalence of hypertension remained largely the same for diabetes and it declined from 59.8% to 48.8% for prediabetes (p = .044). The prevalence of dyslipidemia increased from 40.4% to 53.5% in diabetes and it remained stable for prediabetes. The all-cause mortality decreased from 148.2 to 93.6 per 10,000 person-years between 1999-2006 and 2007-2014 in prediabetes and heart diseases mortality remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

In the US from 1999 to 2018, the adults with prediabetes had different secular trends in the mean hemoglobin A1c and the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia compared to those with diabetes. There was a significant reduction in all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2014 for the population with prediabetes. However, heart diseases mortality remained stable among them.

Modifiable predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus and roles of insulin resistance and β-cell function over a 6-year study and 30-year follow-up

PURPOSE

This study aimed to examine the modifiable predictors of T2DM and the roles of insulin resistance (IR) and β-cell function over a 6-year study and 30-year follow-up.

METHODS

A total of 462 non-diabetic participants, 282 with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and 180 with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) were enrolled in this analysis. The Matsuda IR index and area under the curve of insulin-to-glucose ratio (AUCI/G-R) were used as IR and β-cell function indices in the analysis.

RESULTS

In all participants, multivariable analysis showed that BMI, glucose status, Matsuda IR index and systolic blood pressure (SBP) at baseline were independently associated with an increased risk of T2DM over 30 years, whereas lifestyle intervention and AUCI/G-R were inversely associated with this risk. The predictive effect of the Matsuda IR index and AUCI/G-R in participants with IGT was consistent with the results of all participants, whereas in those with NGT, only the Matsuda IR index, not the AUCI/G-R, predicted the development of T2DM (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.07-1.89 vs HR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.76-1.56). The predictive effect of the Matsuda IR index on T2DM existed even in participants with BMI < 25 (p = 0.049).

CONCLUSION

The modifiable predictors of T2DM in Chinese adults were high BMI, hypertension, mild hyperglycaemia, IR, and β-cell dysfunction. Both IR and β-cell function contributed to the development of T2DM in the long term; however, IR remains the initial and long-standing key risk factor for T2DM.

Effectiveness of Non-Contact Dietary Coaching in Adults with Diabetes or Prediabetes Using a Continuous Glucose Monitoring Device: A Randomized Controlled Trial

We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of dietary coaching and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in patients with diabetes or prediabetes to improve their behavioral skills and health outcomes. A randomized controlled study with pre- and post-testing was conducted. Data were collected between November 2020 and April 2021. Forty-five patients with diabetes or prediabetes who used a CGM device were enrolled and analyzed. Dietary education, individual coaching and group coaching were provided to participants in the experimental group for 4 weeks. After the intervention, the thigh circumference in men significantly differed between the two groups (z = -2.02, p = 0.044). For women, participants in the experimental group showed greater improvement in eating self-efficacy compared with those in the control group (z = -2.66, p = 0.008). Insomnia was negatively related to the change in eating self-efficacy (r = -0.35, p = 0.018) and increase in thigh circumference (r = -0.35, p = 0.017). Even if used within a short intervention period, non-contact dietary coaching programs can help enhance behavioral skills, such as eating self-efficacy and health outcomes, such as thigh circumference. Moreover, the changed variables can indirectly improve other health outcomes in patients with diabetes or prediabetes.

Persistence or regression of prediabetes and coronary artery calcification among adults without diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The effect of changes in glycemic status on subclinical atherosclerosis is uncertain. We assessed the association of persistence, regression, or progression of prediabetes with coronary artery calcium score (CACS) as a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study, comprising 126 765 adults, and longitudinal sub-study, comprising 40 622 adults (with baseline and at least 1 follow-up computed tomography scan to assess changes in CACS), were undertaken.

METHODS

Changes in glycemic status over 1.5 years (interquartile range, 1.0-2.0) before the first CACS assessment were categorized according to 6 groups: persistent normoglycemia (reference), normoglycemia to prediabetes, normoglycemia to diabetes, prediabetes to normoglycemia, persistent prediabetes, and prediabetes to diabetes. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for prevalent coronary artery calcification (CAC). Mixed models with random intercepts and random slopes were used to estimate 5-year CAC progression rates.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 41.3 (7.0) years (74.7% male) (n = 126 765). Multivariable-adjusted OR for prevalent CAC was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.08-1.18) for persistent prediabetes, 1.05 (0.98-1.12) for regression to normoglycemia, and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.67) for progression from prediabetes to diabetes, compared with persistent normoglycemia. Coronary artery calcification progression increased significantly in all prediabetes groups. Multivariable-adjusted ratio of 5-year CAC progression rates was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.22) (persistent prediabetes), 1.11 (1.07-1.14) (regression to normoglycemia), and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.26-2.10) (progression from prediabetes to diabetes).

CONCLUSIONS

Unfavorable changes in glycemic status, including persistence of prediabetes or progression to diabetes from prediabetes, were associated with increased risk of CAC.

Access to diabetes diagnosis in Brazil based on recent testing and consultation: The Brazilian national health survey, 2013 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Screening for undiagnosed diabetes using glucose testing is recommended globally to allow preventive action among those detected. Our aim was to evaluate the access to glucose testing to screen for diabetes in Brazil using self-reported information on recent testing and medical consultation from national surveys of Brazilian adults.

METHODS

The Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS) was conducted in 2013 and 2019 drawing probabilistic samples of Brazilians aged 18 years and above. To evaluate glucose testing among those undiagnosed, we excluded those self-reporting a previous diagnosis of diabetes. We then defined recent access to diabetes diagnosis by considering the previous two years and choosing the last blood glucose test and the proximal medical consultation reported. We used Poisson regression with robust variance to assess correlates of access, expressing them with adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and their 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Access to recent glucose testing documented that over 70% reported a recent glycemic test, 71% in 2013, and 77% in 2019. These findings are consistent with a wide recent access to medical consultation, 86% and 89% in 2013 and 2019, respectively. Reporting recent glucose testing and medical consultation may better reflect the actual access to medical diagnostic testing. When analyzing this joint outcome, diagnostic access was still wide, 67% and 74%, respectively. Greater access (p< 0.001) was seen for women (PR=1.16; 1.15-1.17), older individuals (PR=1.25; 1.22-1.28), and those with higher education (PR=1.17; 1.15-1.18), obesity (PR=1.06; 1.05-1.08), and hypertension (PR=1.12; 1.11-1.13). In contrast, lower access (p<0.001) was seen for those declaring being Black (PR=0.97; 0.95-0.99) or of mixed-race (PR=0.97; 0.96-0.98), those residing in rural areas (PR=0.89; 0.87-0.90), and not having a private health insurance plan (PR=0.85; 0.84-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Although access to diagnostic testing for diabetes is high in Brazil, partly due to its universal health system, social inequities are still present, demanding specific actions, particularly in rural areas and among those self-declaring as being Black or mixed-race.

Vascular complications in prediabetes and type 2 diabetes: a continuous process arising from a common pathology

The term, "prediabetes", describes a state of hyperglycaemia that is intermediate between true normoglycaemia and the diagnostic cut-offs for indices of glycaemia that are used to diagnose type 2 diabetes. The presence of prediabetes markedly increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Numerous randomized, controlled evaluations of various agents have demonstrated significant prevention or delay of the onset of type 2 diabetes in subjects with prediabetes. Intensive lifestyle interventions and metformin have been studied most widely, with the lifestyle intervention being more effective in the majority of subjects. The application of therapeutic interventions at the time of prediabetes to preserve long-term outcomes has been controversial, however, due to a lack of evidence relating to the pathogenic effects of prediabetes and the effectiveness of interventions to produce a long-term clinical benefit. Recent studies have confirmed that prediabetes, however defined, is associated with a significantly increased risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications essentially identical to those of diabetes, and also with subclinical derangements of the function of microvasculature and neurons that likely signify increased risk of compilations in future. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes and type 2 diabetes appear to be part of a continuum of increased risk of adverse outcomes. Long-term (25-30 years) post-trial follow up of two major diabetes prevention trials have shown that short-term interventions to prevent diabetes lead to long-term reductions in the risk of complications. These findings support the concept of therapeutic intervention to preserve long-term health in people with prediabetes before type 2 diabetes becomes established.

Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes, and Achievements in Diabetes Control in Iran; The Results of the STEPS of 2016

BACKGROUND

Using the WHO STEPwise approach to NCD risk factor surveillance (STEPS), first round of Iran's STEPS completed in 2005. It has been repeated six times afterward. Here we report the results of 2016 round on the population characteristics and prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes, along with an assessment of the country-level performance on diabetes care in Iran.

METHODS

Using a proportional-to-size cluster random sampling method, the STEPS 2016 included 18947 subjects aged≥25 years who matched the criteria (non-missing information on diabetes self-report, and biomarkers). For the analyses, survey design methods with weighted samples were employed. Different definitions of diabetes (biomarker-based, self-report, anti-diabetes medication use, or a combination) and prediabetes (different cutpoints of the biomarker) were calculated and presented.

RESULTS

An estimated 5171035 persons aged≥25 years or 10.6% (95% CI: 10.0%-11.1%) had diabetes according to the serologic diagnosis of diabetes (FPG≥126 mg/dL) or the use of at least one anti-diabetes medication (1896 out of 18947). Employing the serologic diagnosis of diabetes among those who responded no to the self-reported question, 2.7% (2.5%-3.0%) of the population were not aware of their diabetes compared to 11.5% (10.9%-12.0%) who were diabetics according to the just self-reported question. Defining prediabetes as 100≤FPG<126 mg/dL or 5.7≤HbA1c<6.5%, an estimated 15244299 persons had prediabetes (5885 out of 18947). Overall, 52.1% (49.4%-54.7%) of patients with self-reported diabetes were under strict glycemic control (HbA1c<7%). Poor diabetes control (HbA1c>9%) was found in 18.4% (16.3%-20.6%) of the patients with self-reported diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Since 2005, the prevalence of diabetes in Iran has been on a gradual increase in both genders with an increasing gap between females and males.

Association of prediabetes with death and diabetic complications in older adults: the pros and cons of active screening for prediabetes

BACKGROUND

active screening can improve health outcomes for people with prediabetes. However, its efficacy in older adults remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

the study aimed to analyse the progression from prediabetes to diabetes in older adults, including associated complications and mortality rates, to determine the benefits of active screening.

DESIGN

retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Korean National Health Insurance Service claims database.

SUBJECTS

a total of 36,946 adults aged ≥65 years who underwent national health examinations from 2006 to 2008.

METHODS

follow-up was until 31 December 2015. Cox's proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death and diabetic complications.

RESULTS

over a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 19.3% of older adults with prediabetes progressed to diabetes. Compared with normoglycaemic adults, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for major adverse cardiovascular events were 1.01 (0.95-1.07), 1.08 (0.95-1.23), 1.14 (1.05-1.23) and 1.50 (1.35-1.68) in adults with prediabetes, newly diagnosed diabetes, diabetes not on insulin and diabetes on insulin, respectively. The corresponding HRs (95% CI) for diabetic retinopathy risk were 1.28 (1.15-1.43), 3.16 (2.71-3.69), 6.58 (6.02-7.19) and 9.17 (8.21-10.24). Diabetic nephropathy risk also significantly increased.

CONCLUSIONS

progression from prediabetes to diabetes is an important concern among older adults. Prediabetes is associated with the risk of microvascular complications, but not cardiovascular complications and mortality. Therefore, active regular screening for prediabetes is necessary to prevent microvascular complications.

A novel methodological framework was described for detecting and quantifying overdiagnosis

OBJECTIVES

Methods to quantify overdiagnosis of screen detected cancer have been developed, but methods for quantifying overdiagnosis of non-cancer conditions (whether symptomatic or asymptomatic) have been lacking. We aimed to develop a methodological framework for quantifying overdiagnosis that may be used for asymptomatic or symptomatic conditions, and used Gestational Diabetes Mellitus as an example of how it may be applied.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We identify two earlier definitions for overdiagnosis, a narrower prognosis-based definition, and a wider utility-based definition. Building on the central importance of the concepts of prognostic information and clinical utility of a diagnosis, we consider the following questions: within a target population, do people found to have a disease using one diagnostic strategy but found not to have the disease using another diagnostic strategy (so called 'additional diagnoses'), have an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes without treatment (prognosis evidence), and/or a decreased risk of adverse outcomes with treatment (utility evidence)?

RESULTS

Using Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs and Fair Umpires, we illuminate the relationships between diagnostics strategies and the frequency of overdiagnosis. We then use the example of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus to demonstrate how the Fair Umpire framework may be applied to estimate overdiagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Our framework may be used to quantify overdiagnosis in non-cancer conditions (and in cancer conditions), as well as to guide further studies on this topic.

Broadening risk factor or disease definition as a driver for overdiagnosis: A narrative review

Medical overuse-defined as the provision of health services for which potential harms exceed potential benefits-constitutes a paradigm of low-value care and is seen as a threat to the quality of care. Value in healthcare implies a precise definition of disease. However, defining a disease may not be straightforward since clinical data do not show discrete boundaries, calling for some clinical judgment. And, if in time a redefinition of disease is needed, it is important to recognize that it can induce overdiagnosis, the identification of medical conditions that would, otherwise, never cause any significant symptoms or lead to clinical harm. A classic example is the impact of recommendations from professional societies in the late 1990s, lowering the threshold for abnormal total cholesterol from 240 mg/dl to 200 mg/dl. Due to these changes in risk factor definition, literally overnight there were 42 million new cases eligible for treatment in the United States. The same happened with hypertension-using either the 2019 NICE guidelines or the 2018 ESC/ECC guidelines criteria for arterial hypertension, the proportion of people overdiagnosed with hypertension was calculated to be between 14% and 33%. In this review, we will start by discussing resource overuse. We then present the basis for disease definition and its conceptual problems. Finally, we will discuss the impact of changing risk factor/disease definitions in the prevalence of disease and its consequences in overdiagnosis and overtreatment (a problem particularly relevant when definitions are widened to include earlier or milder disease).

A diagnosis of prediabetes when combined with lifestyle advice and support is considered helpful rather than a negative label by a demographically diverse group: A qualitative study

AIMS

The aim of this study was to explore the experience and perceptions of a diagnosis of prediabetes among a demographically diverse sample of New Zealanders who had, and had not, regressed to normoglycaemia following participation in a primary care nurse-delivered intervention for 6 months. The sample included Indigenous Māori who have high rates of diabetes and associated co-morbidities.

METHODS

A purposefully selected sample of 58 people with prediabetes and BMI >25 kg/m², stratified by male/female, Māori/non-Māori, and those who had/had not regressed to normoglycaemia, after completing 6-months of a prediabetes intervention were interviewed. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed. Data were analysed by thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Most participants recalled being shocked when told they had prediabetes, but they did not perceive the diagnosis to be a label in a negative sense, and some, described the diagnosis as helpful. Participants appreciated knowing that prediabetes could be reversed, and the opportunity to be able to take supported action and make lifestyle changes through the nurse-delivered prediabetes lifestyle intervention. Participants' clear preference was to take control and make dietary changes, not to take Metformin.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes was not considered a negative label, but an opportunity, when coupled with a primary care nurse-delivered dietary intervention.

An Electronic Health Record-Compatible Model to Predict Personalized Treatment Effects From the Diabetes Prevention Program: A Cross-Evidence Synthesis Approach Using Clinical Trial and Real-World Data

OBJECTIVE

To develop an electronic health record (EHR)-based risk tool that provides point-of-care estimates of diabetes risk to support targeting interventions to patients most likely to benefit.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A risk prediction model was developed and validated in a large observational database of patients with an index visit date between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2016, with treatment effect estimates from risk-based reanalysis of clinical trial data. The risk model development cohort included 1.1 million patients with prediabetes from the OptumLabs Data Warehouse (OLDW); the validation cohort included a distinct sample of 1.1 million patients in OLDW. The randomly assigned clinical trial cohort included 3081 people from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study.

RESULTS

Eleven variables reliably obtainable from the EHR were used to predict diabetes risk. This model validated well in the OLDW (C statistic = 0.76; observed 3-year diabetes rate was 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 1.9) in the lowest-risk quarter and 19.6% (19.4 to 19.8) in the highest-risk quarter). In the DPP, the hazard ratio (HR) for lifestyle modification was constant across all levels of risk (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.53), whereas the HR for metformin was highly risk dependent (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.61 to 2.0 in the lowest-risk quarter vs HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.59 in the highest-risk quarter). Fifty-three percent of the benefits of population-wide dissemination of the DPP lifestyle modification and 73% of the benefits of population-wide metformin therapy can be obtained by targeting the highest-risk quarter of patients.

CONCLUSION

The Tufts-Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness DPP Risk model is an EHR-compatible tool that might support targeted diabetes prevention to more efficiently realize the benefits of the DPP interventions.

Interventions for Reversing Prediabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Several interventions have been found to be effective for reversing prediabetes in adults. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to compare the effectiveness of such interventions.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for articles published between January 1, 2000 and June 27, 2018. RCTs in adults with prediabetes, testing nonsurgical interventions lasting for ≥3 months, and reporting the number of participants achieving normal glucose levels at intervention end were eligible. The pooled risk difference and number needed to treat for achieving normoglycemia were estimated using a random-effects, arm-based network meta-analysis. The strength of the evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation. Data were obtained in 2018 and analyzed in 2019 and 2021.

RESULTS

Of 54 studies included in the systematic review, 47 were meta-analyzed (n=26,460, mean age=53 years, 46% male, 31% White). Studies included 27 arms testing lifestyle modification interventions, 25 testing medications, 5 testing dietary supplements, and 10 testing Chinese medicine. There were 35 control/placebo arms. At a median follow-up of 1.6 years, more participants in the lifestyle modification groups achieved normoglycemia than those in the control (risk difference=0.18, number needed to treat=6). The strength of the evidence was strong for lifestyle modification. Over a median follow-up of 2.7 years, more participants receiving glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (risk difference=0.47, number needed to treat=2), α-glucosidase inhibitors (risk difference=0.29, number needed to treat=4), and insulin sensitizers (risk difference=0.23, number needed to treat=4) achieved normoglycemia than control. The strength of evidence was moderate for these medications.

DISCUSSION

Although several pharmacological approaches can reverse prediabetes, lifestyle modification provides the strongest evidence of effectiveness and should remain the recommended approach to address this condition.

Association between magnesium concentrations and prediabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Studies on the association between serum magnesium level and prediabetes yielded inconsistent results. Therefore, the present meta-analysis was designed to examine the association between serum magnesium levels and prediabetes. Online databases including PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Google Scholar were searched up to October, 2020. A total of 10 studies that reported mean and standard deviation (SD) of magnesium levels in prediabetes and healthy control group were identified. Random effects models were used to pool weighted mean differences (WMDs) of serum magnesium levels. Pooled-analysis showed that subjects with prediabetes had significantly lower serum magnesium levels compared with healthy controls (WMD =  - 0.07 mmol/L; 95% CI - 0.09, - 0.05 mmol/L, P < 0.001). A significant heterogeneity observed across included studies (I² = 95.6%, P < 0.001). However, different subgroup analysis did not detect the potential source of observed heterogeneity. Withdrawal of each individual study had no effect on the overall results. The present meta-analysis showed that circulating magnesium levels in people with prediabetes were significantly lower than healthy controls, confirming that magnesium deficiency may play a role in development and progression of prediabetes. Further studies with larger sample size and robust design are warranted to confirm present results.

Self-administered oral glucose tolerance test with capillary glucose measurements for the screening of diabetes mellitus in high-risk adults: a feasibility study

INTRODUCTION

Early diagnosis of prediabetes based on blood sampling for the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is crucial for intervention but multiple barriers hinder its uptake. This study aimed to assess the feasibility and precision of a self-administered capillary OGTT for type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in high-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Participants with history of gestational diabetes or prediabetes were recruited in primary care. Due to their prediabetic status and previous diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus, a proportion of participants had previous experience doing OGTT. They self-administered the capillary OGTT and concurrently their venous glucose samples were obtained. They filled a questionnaire to collect their demographic information, views of their capillary OGTT, and their preferred site of the test.

RESULTS

Among 30 participants enrolled in this feasibility study, 93.3% of them felt confident of performing the capillary OGTT themselves, and 70.0% preferred the test at home. Older, less educated participants found it less acceptable. Mean capillary glucose values were significantly higher than venous glucose values, with mean difference at 0.31 mmol/L (95% CI 0.13 to 0.49) at fasting, and 0.47 mmol/L (95% CI 0.12 to 0.92) 2 hours post-OGTT. Capillary and venous glucose measurements were correlated for fasting (r=0.95; p<0.001) and 2-hour-post-OGTT (r=0.95;p<0.001). The Fleiss-Kappa Score (0.79, p<0.0001) indicated fair agreement between the two methods. The capillary OGTT had excellent sensitivity (94.1%) and negative predictive value (NPV=91.7%) in identifying prediabetes or T2DM status, vis-a-vis to venous glucose samples.

CONCLUSION

Self-administered capillary OGTT is feasible and acceptable, especially among younger adults, with excellent sensitivity and NPV compared with plasma-based OGTT.

Pre-diabetes in the elderly and the see-saw model of paternalism

Pre-diabetes is a risk factor for the development of diabetes, not a disease in its own right. The prevalence increases with age and reaches nearly 50% of those aged over 75 years in the USA. While lifestyle modification and treatment are likely to benefit those with many years of life ahead of them, they are unlikely to benefit patients with a limited life expectancy. Despite this, some very elderly patients in the UK and elsewhere are being labelled as pre-diabetic. While ideal practice would be to carefully consider the impact of any potentially abnormal blood test before it is taken, this is not always possible in routine practice. In this paper, we discuss a pragmatic, ethical approach for clinicians managing pre-diabetic blood tests in very elderly patients. We argue that a 'see-saw' model of paternalism should be used in deciding which patients to inform that they can be labelled as pre-diabetic. Those patients that may benefit from the label should be informed, and those that will not, should not. Where the benefits/drawbacks are unclear, the result and its potential significance should be discussed in depth with the individual patient. We do not advocate withholding information from any patient. Instead we suggest clinicians use individual patient circumstances to contextualise the relevance of pre-diabetes to the patient and consider the benefits and drawbacks before informing them. This approach has the potential to be used for other pre-conditions and risk factors in addition to pre-diabetes.

Cardiometabolic risk: New chronic care models

Cardiometabolic risk factors and the chronic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) that result from them are highly prevalent in the U.S. and amenable to clinical nutrition interventions. This creates an urgency to develop comprehensive care models that incorporate prevention-based actions by improving lifestyle routines. Such care models should account for social determinants of health, ethnocultural variables, and challenges to sustainability. The relevance of these newly designed chronic care models are to inform and facilitate early intervention, primarily consisting of lifestyle change and healthy nutrition, which mitigates progression from one stage to subsequent, higher morbidity stages to a greater extent than late intervention. In this paper, the mechanistic drivers and ethno-cultural validation of the Cardiometabolic-Based Chronic Disease (CMBCD) model are reviewed. Main findings are that in CMBCD, primary (genetics, environment, and behavior) and metabolic (obesity as Adiposity-Based Chronic Disease [ABCD], type 2 diabetes as Dysglycemia-Based Chronic Disease [DBCD], hypertension, and dyslipidemia) drivers initiate and perpetuate the progression of CVD. Epidemiological findings and molecular mechanisms support intra ABCD/DBCD, as well as ABCD to DBCD stage progression culminating in CVD. The ABCD definition overcomes weight stigma and BMI underperformance by considering adiposity amount, distribution, and function; and the DBCD definition overcomes criticisms of prediabetes and an exclusive glucocentric approach by considering insulin resistance and residual vascular risk along a clinical spectrum. In conclusion, clinicians should approach patients using the CMBCD model to incorporate lifestyle change as early as possible to optimally mitigate the burden of CVD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Are Corporations Re-Defining Illness and Health? The Diabetes Epidemic, Goal Numbers, and Blockbuster Drugs

While pharmaceutical industry involvement in producing, interpreting, and regulating medical knowledge and practice is widely accepted and believed to promote medical innovation, industry-favouring biases may result in prioritizing corporate profit above public health. Using diabetes as our example, we review successive changes over forty years in screening, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines for type 2 diabetes and prediabetes, which have dramatically expanded the population prescribed diabetes drugs, generating a billion-dollar market. We argue that these guideline recommendations have emerged under pervasive industry influence and persisted, despite weak evidence for their health benefits and indications of serious adverse effects associated with many of the drugs they recommend. We consider pharmaceutical industry conflicts of interest in some of the research and publications supporting these revisions, and in related standard-setting committees and oversight panels. We raise concern over the long-term impact of these multifaceted involvements. Rather than accept industry conflicts of interest as normal, needing only to be monitored and managed, we suggest challenging that normalcy, and ask: what are the real costs of tolerating such industry participation? We urge the development of a broader focus to fully understand and curtail the systemic nature of industry's influence over medical knowledge and practice.

Classifying and communicating risks in prediabetes according to fasting glucose and/or glycated hemoglobin: PREDAPS cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Information about prognostic outcomes can be of great help for people with prediabetes and for physicians in the face of scientific controversy about the cutoff point for defining prediabetes. We aimed to estimate different prognostic outcomes in people with prediabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort of subjects with prediabetes according to American Diabetes Association guidelines.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The probabilities of diabetes onset versus non-onset, the odds against diabetes onset, and the probability of reverting to normoglycemia according to different prediabetes categories were calculated.

RESULTS

The odds against diabetes onset ranged from 29:1 in individuals with isolated FPG of 100-109 mg/dL to 1:1 in individuals with FPG 110-125 mg/dL plus HbA1c 6.0-6.4%. The probability of reversion to normoglycemia was 31.2% (95% CI 24.0-39.6) in those with isolated FPG 100-109 mg/dL and 6.2% (95% CI 1.4-10.0) in those with FPG 110-125 mg/dL plus HbA1c 6.0-6.4%. Of every 100 participants in the first group, 97 did not develop diabetes and 31 reverted to normoglycemia, while in the second group those figures were 52 and 6.

CONCLUSIONS

Using odds of probabilities and absolute numbers might be useful for people with prediabetes and physicians to share decisions on potential interventions.Key pointsCommunicating knowledge on the course of the disease to make clinical decisions is not always done appropriately.Prediabetes is an example where risk communication is important because the prognosis of subjects with prediabetes is very heterogeneous.Depending on fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c levels, the odds of probabilities against diabetes onset ranged from 29: 1 to 1: 1.Depending on fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c levels, the number of subjects in 100 who revert to normoglycemia ranged from 31 to 6.Using probabilities and number absolutes on the prognosis of prediabetes may be useful for people with prediabetes and physicians to share decisions on potential interventions.

Dissonance in the discourse of the duration of diabetes: A mixed methods study of patient perceptions and clinical practice

Background

Remission of diabetes can be rewarding for patients and physicians, but there is limited study of how patients perceive the timeline of a disease along the continuum of glycaemic control.

Objective

To explore how patients perceive the timeline of diabetes along the continuum of glycaemic control and their goals of care and to identify whether family physicians communicate the principles of regression and remission of diabetes.

Design

Mixed methods approach of qualitative semi‐structured interviews with purposive sampling followed by cross‐sectional survey of physicians.

Participants

Thirty‐three patients living with prediabetes (preDM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at medical centres in Georgia and Nevada; and 387 family physicians providing primary care within the same health system.

Results

Patients described two timelines of diabetes: as a lifelong condition or as a condition that can be cured. Patients who perceived a lifelong condition described five treatment goals: reducing glucose‐related laboratory values, losing weight, reducing medication, preventing treatment intensification and avoiding complications. For patients who perceived diabetes as a disease with an end, the goal of care was to achieve normoglycaemia. In response to patient vignettes that described potential cases of remission and regression, 38.2% of physician respondents would still communicate that a patient has preDM and 94.6% would tell the patient that he still had diabetes.

Conclusions

Most physicians here exhibited reluctance to communicate remission or regression in patient care. Yet, patients describe two different potential timelines, including a subset who expect their diabetes can be ‘cured’. Physicians should incorporate shared decision making to create a shared mental model of diabetes and its potential outcomes with patients.

Patient or Public Contribution

In this mixed methods study, as patients participated in the qualitative phase of this study, we asked patients to tell us what additional questions we should ask in subsequent interviews. Data from this qualitative phase informed the design and interpretation of the quantitative phase with physician participants.

Lifestyle Intervention With or Without Lay Volunteers to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes in People With Impaired Fasting Glucose and/or Nondiabetic Hyperglycemia: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Nearly half of the older adult population has diabetes or a high-risk intermediate glycemic category, but we still lack trial evidence for effective type 2 diabetes prevention interventions in most of the current high-risk glycemic categories.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a group-based lifestyle intervention (with or without trained volunteers with type 2 diabetes) reduced the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes in populations with a high-risk glycemic category.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention Study was a parallel, 3-arm, group-based, randomized clinical trial conducted with up to 46 months of follow-up from August 2011 to January 2019 at 135 primary care practices and 8 intervention sites in the East of England. We identified 141 973 people at increased risk of type 2 diabetes, screened 12 778 (9.0%), and randomized those with a high-risk glycemic category, which was either an elevated fasting plasma glucose level alone (≥110 and <126 mg/dL [to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0555]) or an elevated glycated hemoglobin level (≥6.0% to <6.5%; nondiabetic hyperglycemia) with an elevated fasting plasma glucose level (≥100 to <110 mg/dL).

INTERVENTIONS

A control arm receiving usual care (CON), a theory-based lifestyle intervention arm of 6 core and up to 15 maintenance sessions (INT), or the same intervention with support from diabetes prevention mentors, trained volunteers with type 2 diabetes (INT-DPM).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Type 2 diabetes incidence between arms.

RESULTS

In this study, 1028 participants were randomized (INT, 424 [41.2%] [166 women (39.2%)]; INT-DPM, 426 [41.4%] [147 women (34.5%)]; CON, 178 [17.3%] [70 women (%39.3)]) between January 1, 2011, and February 24, 2017. The mean (SD) age was 65.3 (10.0) years, mean (SD) body mass index 31.2 (5) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), and mean (SD) follow-up 24.7 (13.4) months. A total of 156 participants progressed to type 2 diabetes, which comprised 39 of 171 receiving CON (22.8%), 55 of 403 receiving INT (13.7%), and 62 of 414 receiving INT-DPM (15.0%). There was no significant difference between the intervention arms in the primary outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 0.77-1.7; P = .51), but each intervention arm had significantly lower odds of type 2 diabetes (INT: OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.85; P = .01; INT-DPM: OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39-0.96; P = .033; combined: OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.87; P = .01). The effect size was similar in all glycemic, age, and social deprivation groups, and intervention costs per participant were low at $153 (£122).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention lifestyle intervention reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes in current high-risk glycemic categories. Enhancing the intervention with DPM did not further reduce diabetes risk. These translatable results are relevant for current diabetes prevention efforts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry Identifier: ISRCTN34805606.

A combined strategy of feature selection and machine learning to identify predictors of prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

To identify predictors of prediabetes using feature selection and machine learning on a nationally representative sample of the US population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed n = 6346 men and women enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2014. Prediabetes was defined using American Diabetes Association guidelines. The sample was randomly partitioned to training (n = 3174) and internal validation (n = 3172) sets. Feature selection algorithms were run on training data containing 156 preselected exposure variables. Four machine learning algorithms were applied on 46 exposure variables in original and resampled training datasets built using 4 resampling methods. Predictive models were tested on internal validation data (n = 3172) and external validation data (n = 3000) prepared from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2012. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Predictors were assessed by odds ratios in logistic models and variable importance in others. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) prediabetes screening tool was the benchmark to compare model performance.

RESULTS

Prediabetes prevalence was 23.43%. The CDC prediabetes screening tool produced 64.40% AUROC. Seven optimal (≥ 70% AUROC) models identified 25 predictors including 4 potentially novel associations; 20 by both logistic and other nonlinear/ensemble models and 5 solely by the latter. All optimal models outperformed the CDC prediabetes screening tool (P < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Combined use of feature selection and machine learning increased predictive performance outperforming the recommended screening tool. A range of predictors of prediabetes was identified.

CONCLUSION

This work demonstrated the value of combining feature selection with machine learning to identify a wide range of predictors that could enhance prediabetes prediction and clinical decision-making.

Pioglitazone for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at risk for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The term prediabetes is used to describe a population with an elevated risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). With projections of an increase in the incidence of T2DM, prevention or delay of the disease and its complications is paramount. It is currently unknown whether pioglitazone is beneficial in the treatment of people with increased risk of developing T2DM.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of pioglitazone for prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people at risk of developing T2DM.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Chinese databases, ICTRP Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. We did not apply any language restrictions. Further, we investigated the reference lists of all included studies and reviews. We tried to contact all study authors. The date of the last search of databases was November 2019 (March 2020 for Chinese databases).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a minimum duration of 24 weeks, and participants diagnosed with intermediate hyperglycaemia with no concomitant diseases, comparing pioglitazone as monotherapy or part of dual therapy with other glucose-lowering drugs, behaviour-changing interventions, placebo or no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened abstracts, read full-text articles and records, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We performed meta-analyses with a random-effects model and calculated risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with the GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 27 studies with a total of 4186 randomised participants. The size of individual studies ranged between 43 and 605 participants and the duration varied between 6 and 36 months. We judged none of the included studies as having low risk of bias across all 'Risk of bias' domains. Most studies identified people at increased risk of T2DM by impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or both. Our main outcome measures were all-cause mortality, incidence of T2DM, serious adverse events (SAEs), cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke (NMI/S), health-related quality of life (QoL) and socioeconomic effects. The following comparisons mostly reported only a fraction of our main outcome set. Three studies compared pioglitazone with metformin. They did not report all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, NMI/S, QoL or socioeconomic effects. Incidence of T2DM was 9/168 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 9/163 participants in the metformin groups (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.40 to 2.38; P = 0.96; 3 studies, 331 participants; low-certainty evidence). No SAEs were reported in two studies (201 participants; low-certainty evidence). One study compared pioglitazone with acarbose. Incidence of T2DM was 1/50 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 2/46 participants in the acarbose group (very low-certainty evidence). No participant experienced a SAE (very low-certainty evidence).One study compared pioglitazone with repaglinide. Incidence of T2DM was 2/48 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 1/48 participants in the repaglinide group (low-certainty evidence). No participant experienced a SAE (low-certainty evidence). One study compared pioglitazone with a personalised diet and exercise consultation. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality, NMI/S, QoL or socioeconomic effects were not reported. Incidence of T2DM was 2/48 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 5/48 participants in the diet and exercise consultation group (low-certainty evidence). No participant experienced a SAE (low-certainty evidence). Six studies compared pioglitazone with placebo. No study reported on QoL or socioeconomic effects. All-cause mortality was 5/577 participants the in the pioglitazone groups versus 2/579 participants in the placebo groups (Peto odds ratio 2.38, 95% CI 0.54 to 10.50; P = 0.25; 4 studies, 1156 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Incidence of T2DM was 80/700 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 131/695 participants in the placebo groups (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.95; P = 0.04; 6 studies, 1395 participants; low-certainty evidence). There were 3/93 participants with SAEs in the pioglitazone groups versus 1/94 participants in the placebo groups (RR 3.00, 95% CI 0.32 to 28.22; P = 0.34; 2 studies, 187 participants; very low-certainty evidence). However, the largest study for this comparison did not distinguish between serious and non-serious adverse events. This study reported that 121/303 (39.9%) participants in the pioglitazone group versus 151/299 (50.5%) participants in the placebo group experienced an adverse event (P = 0.03). One study observed cardiovascular mortality in 2/181 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 0/186 participants in the placebo group (RR 5.14, 95% CI 0.25 to 106.28; P = 0.29; very low-certainty evidence). One study observed NMI in 2/303 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 1/299 participants in the placebo group (RR 1.97: 95% CI 0.18 to 21.65; P = 0.58; very low-certainty evidence). Twenty-one studies compared pioglitazone with no intervention. No study reported on cardiovascular mortality, NMI/S, QoL or socioeconomic effects. All-cause mortality was 11/441 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 12/425 participants in the no-intervention groups (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.91; P = 0.70; 3 studies, 866 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Incidence of T2DM was 60/1034 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 197/1019 participants in the no-intervention groups (RR 0.31, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.40; P < 0.001; 16 studies, 2053 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Studies reported SAEs in 16/610 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 21/601 participants in the no-intervention groups (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.32; P = 0.28; 7 studies, 1211 participants; low-certainty evidence). We identified two ongoing studies, comparing pioglitazone with placebo and with other glucose-lowering drugs. These studies, with 2694 participants. may contribute evidence to future updates of this review.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Pioglitazone reduced or delayed the development of T2DM in people at increased risk of T2DM compared with placebo (low-certainty evidence) and compared with no intervention (moderate-certainty evidence). It is unclear whether the effect of pioglitazone is sustained once discontinued. Pioglitazone compared with metformin neither showed advantage nor disadvantage regarding the development of T2DM in people at increased risk (low-certainty evidence). The data and reporting of all-cause mortality, SAEs, micro- and macrovascular complications were generally sparse. None of the included studies reported on QoL or socioeconomic effects.

Lifetime risk to progress from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes among women and men: comparison between American Diabetes Association and World Health Organization diagnostic criteria

INTRODUCTION

Pre-diabetes, a status conferring high risk of overt diabetes, is defined differently by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the WHO. We investigated the impact of applying definitions of pre-diabetes on lifetime risk of diabetes in women and men from the general population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from 8844 women without diabetes and men aged ≥45 years from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. In both gender groups, we calculated pre-diabetes prevalence according to ADA and WHO criteria and estimated the 10-year and lifetime risk to progress to overt diabetes with adjustment for competing risk of death.

RESULTS

Out of 8844 individuals, pre-diabetes was identified in 3492 individuals (prevalence 40%, 95% CI 38% to 41%) according to ADA and 1382 individuals (prevalence 16%, 95% CI 15% to 16%) according to WHO criteria. In both women and men and each age category, ADA prevalence estimates doubled WHO-defined pre-diabetes. For women and men aged 45 years having ADA-defined pre-diabetes, the 10-year risk of diabetes was 14.2% (95% CI 6.0% to 22.5%) and 9.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 15.0%) compared with 23.2% (95% CI 6.8% to 39.6%) and 24.6% (95% CI 8.4% to 40.8%) in women and men with WHO-defined pre-diabetes. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk to progress to overt diabetes was 57.5% (95% CI 51.8% to 63.2%) vs 80.2% (95% CI 74.1% to 86.3%) in women and 46.1% (95% CI 40.8% to 51.4%) vs 68.4% (95% CI 58.3% to 78.5%) in men with pre-diabetes according to ADA and WHO definitions, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of pre-diabetes differed considerably in both women and men when applying ADA and WHO pre-diabetes definitions. Women with pre-diabetes had higher lifetime risk to progress to diabetes. The lifetime risk of diabetes was lower in women and men with ADA-defined pre-diabetes as compared with WHO. Improvement of pre-diabetes definition considering appropriate sex-specific and age-specific glycemic thresholds may lead to better identification of individuals at high risk of diabetes.

A randomised on-line survey exploring how health condition labels affect behavioural intentions

OBJECTIVES

We examined the effect of 'labels' versus 'descriptions' across four asymptomatic health conditions: pre-diabetes, pre-hypertension, mild hyperlipidaemia, and chronic kidney disease stage 3A, on participants' intentions to pursue further tests. There were four secondary objectives: 1) assessing confidence and satisfaction in their intention to test further; 2) revealing psychological drivers affecting intentions; 3) exploring whether intentions, confidence and satisfaction differ by label vs. description and health condition; and 4) producing a perceptual map of illnesses by label condition.

METHODS

Practitioner validated health-related scenarios were used. Two variants of each condition were developed. Participants were recruited through Qualtrics from Australia, Ireland and Canada and randomly assigned two 'labelled' or two 'descriptive' scenarios.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in intentions to test between label and description conditions (95% CI -0.76 to 0.33 points, p = 0.4). Confidence and satisfaction were both positively associated with intentions: regression coefficient (β) for confidence β = 0.58 points (95% CI 0.49 to 0.68, p < .001) and for satisfaction 0.67 points (95% CI 0.57 to 0.77, p < .001). Predisposition to seek healthcare (β = 0.72; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.98), attributing illness to bad luck (β = -0.16 points; 95% CI -0.3 to -0.02), and concern about the health condition (β = 0.51; 95% CI 0.38 to 0.65) also significantly predicted intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike studies investigating symptomatic illnesses, the disease label effect on behavioural intentions was not supported suggesting that reducing demand for medical services for borderline cases cannot be achieved by labelling. The average intention to test score was higher in this sample than previous symptomatic health-related studies and there was a positive relationship between increased intentions and confidence/satisfaction in one's decision. Exploratory insights suggested perceptions of the four labelled asymptomatic illnesses all shifted toward greater levels of dread and concern compared to their respective description condition.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12618000392268.

Risk and management of pre-diabetes

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a two- to four-fold increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and microvascular complications, which may already be present before diagnosis. It is, therefore, important to detect people with an increased risk of T2DM at an early stage. In order to identify individuals with so-called 'pre-diabetes', comprising impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), current guidelines have developed definitions based on fasting plasma glucose, two-hour glucose concentrations and haemoglobin A1c. Subjects with pre-diabetes are at an increased risk of developing T2DM and CVD. This elevated risk seems similar according to the different criteria used to define pre-diabetes. The risk of progression to T2DM or CVD does, however, depend on other risk factors such as sex, body mass index and ethnicity. Based on the risk factors to develop T2DM, many risk assessment models have been developed to identify those at highest risk. These models perform well to identify those at risk and could be used to initiate preventive interventions. Many studies have shown that lifestyle modification and metformin are effective in preventing the development of T2DM, although lifestyle modification seems to have a more sustainable effect. In addition, lifestyle modification seems more effective in those with IGT than those with IFG. In this review, we will describe the different definitions used to define pre-diabetes, progression from pre-diabetes to T2DM or other vascular complications, risk factors associated with progressions and the management of progression to T2DM, ending with clinical recommendations.

The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space.

Methods

We derived all estimates using the GBD 2016 and 2017 databases to characterize disease burden related to diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, from 1990 to 2040, using standard GBD methodologies.

Results

The overall estimated prevalence of diabetes in Brazil in 2017 was 4.4% (95%UI 4.0–4.9%), with 4.0% of those with diabetes being identified as having type 1 disease. While the crude prevalence of type 1 disease has remained relatively stable from 1990, type 2 prevalence has increased 30% for males and 26% for females. In 2017, approximately 3.3% of all disability-adjusted life years lost were due to diabetes and 5.9% to hyperglycemia. Diabetes prevalence and mortality were highest in the Northeast region and growing fastest in the North, Northeast, and Center-West regions. Over this period, despite a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes, crude overall burden due to hyperglycemia has increased 19%, with population aging being a main cause for this rise. Cardiovascular diseases, responsible for 38.3% of this burden in 1990, caused only 25.9% of it in 2017, with premature mortality attributed directly to diabetes causing 31.6% of the 2017 burden. Future projections suggest that the diabetes mortality burden will increase 144% by 2040, more than twice the expected increase in crude disease burden overall (54%). By 2040, diabetes is projected to be Brazil’s third leading cause of death and hyperglycemia its third leading risk factor, in terms of deaths.

Conclusions

The disease burden in Brazil attributable to diabetes and hyperglycemia, already large, is predicted by GBD estimates to more than double to 2040. Strong actions by the Ministry of Health are necessary to counterbalance the major deleterious effects of population aging.

Prediabetes and long-term outcomes in patients with three-vessel coronary artery disease: A large single-center cohort study

Aims/Introduction

Whether detection of prediabetes by routinely testing hemoglobin A_1c and fasting plasma glucose in three‐vessel disease patients could identify individuals at high risk of future cardiovascular disease events remains unclear. This study evaluated the relationship between different glycemic status and clinical outcomes in this specific population.

Materials and Methods

This study included 8,891 Chinese patients with three‐vessel disease. Patients were categorized according to their glycemic status (normoglycemia [NG], n = 3,195; prediabetes, n = 1,978; diabetes mellitus, n = 3,718).

Results

The median follow‐up time was 7.5 years, during which 1,354 deaths and 2,340 major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events occurred. Compared with the NG group, patients in the prediabetes and diabetes mellitus groups had more comorbidities. After adjusting for confounders, the diabetes mellitus group had a higher risk of all‐cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–1.53; P < 0.001), cardiac death (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14–1.61; P = 0.001) and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11–1.34; P < 0.001) compared with the NG group, whereas the prediabetes and NG groups had no significant difference. The diabetes mellitus group also had a higher risk of stroke compared with the NG group (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.02–1.46; P = 0.031).

Conclusions

In the context of three‐vessel disease, prediabetes patients have comparable long‐term outcomes in terms of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, cardiac death and all‐cause death to those with NG. Routine screening of glycemic metabolism based on hemoglobin A_1c and fasting plasma glucose might be valuable to identify individuals with diabetes mellitus who are at high risk of future cardiovascular disease events and individuals with prediabetes who are at high risk of progressing to diabetes mellitus.

Hot water immersion acutely increases postprandial glucose concentrations

Chronic hot water immersion (HWI) confers health benefits, including a reduction in fasting blood glucose concentration. Here we investigate acute glycemic control immediately after HWI. Ten participants (age: 25 ± 6 years, body mass: 84 ± 14 kg, height 1.85 ± 0.09 m) were immersed in water (39°C) to the neck (HWI) or sat at room temperature (CON) for 60 min. One hour afterward they underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), with blood collected before and after HWI/CON and during the 2 h OGTT. Glucose incremental area under the curve (iAUC) during the OGTT was higher for HWI (HWI 233 ± 88, CON 156 ± 79 mmol·L^-1 ·2 h, P = 0.02). Insulin iAUC did not differ between conditions (HWI 4309 ± 3660, CON 3893 ± 3031 mU·L^-1 ·2 h, P = 0.32). Core temperature increased to 38.6 ± 0.2°C during HWI, but was similar between trials during the OGTT (HWI 37.0 ± 0.2, CON 36.9 ± 0.4°C, P = 0.34). Directly following HWI, plasma average adrenaline and growth hormone concentrations increased 2.7 and 10.7-fold, respectively (P < 0.001). Plasma glucagon-like peptide-1, peptide YY, and acylated ghrelin concentrations were not different between trials during the OGTT (P > 0.11). In conclusion, HWI increased postprandial glucose concentration to an OGTT, which was accompanied by acute elevations of stress hormones following HWI. The altered glycemic control appears to be unrelated to changes in gut hormones during the OGTT.

Management of Diabetes in People Undergoing Dental Treatment in Primary Care

Diabetes mellitus is a condition resulting from loss of production of insulin, or insufficient production/insulin resistance leading to high blood glucose levels. Management of the condition can be provided in a variety of settings and is tailored to the person's requirements. The condition has a lifelong, systemic impact due to microvascular and macrovascular complications. Diabetes mellitus has dental implications due to increased risk of infections, poor wound healing, rapid progression of periapical pathology, xerostomia, burning mouth syndrome, and a bidirectional link with periodontal disease. Two clinical cases of patients with diabetes are discussed and their dental management described. Many people with diabetes can be treated in primary care, however, some with suboptimal glycaemic control may require specialist input and liaison with the patient's diabetes team.

Health education and communication needs among primary care patients with prediabetes in Singapore: A mixed methods approach

AIMS

To assess factors associated with ever receiving prediabetes education, and to explore the health education and communication needs among primary care patients with prediabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

A mixed methods study, consisting of a cross-sectional survey involving 433 patients with prediabetes aged 21-79, and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 48. Multivariable regression was used to analyse the survey results, while thematic analysis was used to analyse the IDIs.

RESULTS

The prevalence of ever receiving prediabetes education was 26.6%. This was positively associated with school education, impaired glucose tolerance, number of co-morbidities, having family or peer with diabetes, having support to reduce diabetes risk, confidence to self-manage prediabetes, and negatively associated with age. A common reason among those not receiving such education was not being referred by doctors. The preferred content of health communication messages were to focus on risk and prevention of diabetes, health and family, and to avoid the term 'prediabetes' in messages. The top 2 preferred education components were healthy eating and physical activity, and the most desired setting was the community centre.

CONCLUSIONS

More efforts are needed to increase the take-up rate of prediabetes education. Polyclinic healthcare professionals could provide preliminary advice, and subsequently refer patients to community-based programmes or resources.

Lifestyle and Progression to Type 2 Diabetes in a Cohort of Workers with Prediabetes

Background: People with prediabetes have an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Few studies have evaluated the influence of lifestyle factors on the risk of progression to diabetes and reversion to normoglycemia. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of T2D in a large cohort of workers with prediabetes, and to evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, metabolic, and lifestyle factors that affect the persistence of prediabetes and the progression to T2D. Methods: A cohort study of 27,844 adult workers (aged 20 to 65 years) from Spain who had prediabetes based on an occupational medical examination from 2012 to 2013. Prediabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) between 100 and 125 mg/dL. At the baseline evaluation, sociodemographic, anthropometric, metabolic, and lifestyle data were collected. At the 5-year follow-up, incident T2D was defined as an FPG of at least 126 mg/dL or initiation of an antidiabetic medication. Results: Among 235,995 initially screened workers, the prevalence of T2D was 14.19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 14.05 to 14.33) and the prevalence of prediabetes was 11.85% (95% CI 11.71 to 11.99). Follow-up data were available for 23,293 individuals with prediabetes. Among them, 36.08% (95% CI 35.46 to 36.70) returned to normoglycemia, 40.92% (95% CI 40.29 to 41.55) had persistent prediabetes, and 23.00% (95% CI 22.46 to 23.54) progressed to T2D. The risk for persistence of prediabetes and for progression to T2D increased with age, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride level, and less than 150 min/week of physical activity. An HbA1c level of 6% or greater was the strongest individual predictor of progression to T2D. Conclusions: Physical activity, diet, smoking, and BMI are modifiable factors that are associated with the persistence of prediabetes and the progression to T2D. The workplace is a feasible setting for the early detection of prediabetes and the promotion of lifestyles that can prevent progression to T2D.

Association between pre-diabetes and microvascular and macrovascular disease in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The associated risk of vascular disease following diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in people previously identified as having pre-diabetes in real-world settings is unknown. We examined the presence of microvascular and macrovascular disease in individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes by glycemic status within 3 years before diagnosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We identified 159 736 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database in England between 2004 and 2017. We used logistic regression models to compare presence of microvascular (retinopathy and nephropathy) and macrovascular (acute coronary syndrome, cerebrovascular and peripheral arterial disease) disease at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis by prior glycemic status.

RESULTS

Half of the study population (49.9%) had at least one vascular disease, over one-third (37.4%) had microvascular disease, and almost a quarter (23.5%) had a diagnosed macrovascular disease at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis.Compared with individuals with glycemic values within the normal range, those detected with pre-diabetes before the diagnosis had 76% and 14% increased odds of retinopathy and nephropathy (retinopathy: adjusted OR (AOR) 1.76, 95% CI 1.69 to 1.85; nephropathy: AOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.19), and 7% higher odds of the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12) in fully adjusted models at time of diabetes diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Microvascular and macrovascular diseases are detected in 37%-24% of people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Pre-diabetes before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is associated with increased odds of microvascular disease and acute coronary syndrome. Detection of pre-diabetes might represent an opportunity for reducing the burden of microvascular and macrovascular disease through heightened attention to screening for vascular complications.

Feasibility of procedures for a randomised pilot study of reduced exertion, high-intensity interval training (REHIT) with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia patients

Background

Physical activity and exercise interventions to improve health frequently bring about intended effects under ideal circumstances but often fail to demonstrate benefits in real-world contexts. The aim of this study was to describe the feasibility of an exercise intervention (reduced-exertion, high-intensity interval training) in non-diabetic hyperglycaemia patients delivered in a National Health Service setting to assess whether it would be appropriate to progress to a future large-scale study.

Methods

The intention was to recruit 40 participants from a single centre (specialist diabesity centre). Patients were eligible to take part if they were diagnostically defined as non-diabetic hyperglycaemic based on a glycated haemoglobin (HbA_1c) value of 42–46 mmol mol. Study procedures including recruitment, occurrence of adverse events, intervention acceptability, and intervention adherence were used to assess feasibility.

Results

Key criteria for progression to a larger study were not met. The study revealed several issues including patient eligibility, challenges to recruitment, patient consent, and poor clinician engagement. Furthermore, despite the simplicity and convenience of using HbA_1c to screen for diabetes risk, the process of accurately screening and case finding eligible patients was problematic. The small sample recruited for this trial (n = 6) also limits the interpretation of data, thus it is not possible to estimate the variability of intended outcomes to use in a formal sample size calculation for a full-scale trial. Some aspects of the intervention worked well. The acceptability of the exercise intervention and outcome measures met progression criteria thresholds and adherence was very high, with 97% of exercise sessions completed for participants that finished the study.

Conclusions

Given the issues, the trial is not feasible in its current form. Yet, this preparatory stage of trial design pre-empted problems with the intervention that could be changed to optimise the design and conduct of future studies. Solutions to the issues identified in this study revolve around using a dedicated local recruiter with a strong relationship among the healthcare team and patients, using participant incentives to take part, and allowing for a longer recruitment period.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04011397. Registered 07 July 2019—retrospectively registered.