Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis

A decade of outsourcing in health and social care in England: What was it meant to achieve?

The increased private provision of publicly funded health and social care over the last 75 years has been one of the most contentious topics in UK public policy. In the last decades, health and social care policies in England have consistently promoted the outsourcing of public services to private for-profit and non-profit companies with the assumption that private sector involvement will reduce costs and improve service quality and access. However, it is not clear why outsourcing often fails to improve quality of care, and which of the underlying assumptions behind marketising care are not supported by research. This article provides an analysis of key policy and regulatory documents preceding or accompanying outsourcing policies in England (e.g., policy document relating to the 2012 and 2022 Health and Social Care Acts and the 2014 Care Act), and peer-reviewed research on the impact of outsourcing within the NHS, adult's social care, and children's social care. We find that more regulation and market oversight appear to be associated with less poor outcomes and slower growth of for-profit provision. However, evidence on the NHS suggests that marketisation does not seem to achieve the intended objectives of outsourcing, even when accompanied with heavy regulation and oversight. Our analysis suggests that there is little evidence to show that the profit motive can be successfully tamed by public commissioners. This article concludes with how policymakers should address, or readdress, the underlying assumptions behind the outsourcing of care services.

Is Austerity Responsible for the Stalled Mortality Trends Across Many High-Income Countries? A Systematic Review

This article systematically reviews evidence evaluating whether macroeconomic austerity policies impact mortality, reviewing high-income country data compiled through systematic searches of nine databases and gray literature using pre-specified methods (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020226609). Eligible studies were quantitatively assessed to determine austerity's impact on mortality. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias using ROBINS-I. Synthesis without meta-analysis was conducted due to heterogeneity. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE framework. Of 5,720 studies screened, seven were included, with harmful effects of austerity policies demonstrated in six, and no effect in one. Consistent harmful impacts of austerity were demonstrated for all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality across studies and different austerity measures. Excess mortality was higher in countries with greater exposure to austerity. Certainty of evidence was low. Risk of bias was moderate to critical. A typical austerity dose was associated with 74,090 [-40,632, 188,792] and 115,385 [26,324, 204,446] additional deaths per year. Austerity policies are consistently associated with adverse mortality outcomes, but the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain and may depend on how austerity is implemented (e.g., balance between public spending reductions or tax rises, and distributional consequences). Policymakers should be aware of potential harmful health effects of austerity policies.

The impact of the English national health inequalities strategy on inequalities in mortality at age 65: a time-trend analysis

BACKGROUND

During the 1997-2010 Labour government, several policies were implemented to narrow health inequalities as part of a national health inequalities strategy. Many of these policies are likely to have had a disproportionately large impact on people aged 65 and over. We aimed to understand the association between the health inequalities strategy period and inequalities in mortality at age 65-69.

METHODS

We use population at risk and mortality data covering 1991-2019 to calculate mortality rate at age 65-69 at the Local Authority level. We use the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation to examine geographical inequalities. We employ segmented linear regression models with marginal spline terms for the strategy period and interact these with an indicator of deprivation to understand how inequalities changed before, during and after the strategy. The reporting of this study adheres to STROBE guidelines.

RESULTS

Mortality rates in each deprivation quintile improved continuously throughout the period of study. Prior to the programme (1991-9) there was no significant change in absolute inequalities. However, during the strategy (2000-10) there was a significant decrease in absolute inequalities of -9.66 (-17.48 to -1.84). The period following the strategy (2011-19) was associated with a significant increase in absolute inequalities of 12.84 (6.60 to 19.08). Our results were robust to a range of sensitivity tests.

CONCLUSION

The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a significant reduction in absolute inequality in mortality age 65-69. Future strategies to address inequalities in ageing populations may benefit from adopting a similar approach.

Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy

BACKGROUND

There are not enough GPs in England. Access to general practice and continuity of care are declining.

AIM

To investigate whether practice characteristics are associated with life expectancy of practice populations.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A cross-sectional ecological study of patient life expectancy from 2015-2019.

METHOD

Selection of independent variables was based on conceptual frameworks describing general practice's influence on outcomes. Sixteen non-correlated variables were entered into multivariable weighted regression models: population characteristics (Index of Multiple Deprivation, region, % White ethnicity, and % on diabetes register); practice organisation (total NHS payments to practices expressed as payment per registered patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs, GP registrars, advanced nurse practitioners, other nurses, and receptionists per 1000 patients); access (% seen on the same day); clinical performance (% aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease vaccinated against flu, % with diabetes in glycaemic control, and % with coronary heart disease on antiplatelet therapy); and the therapeutic relationship (% continuity).

RESULTS

Deprivation was strongly negatively associated with life expectancy. Regions outside London and White ethnicity were associated with lower life expectancy. Higher payment per patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients, continuity, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease having the flu vaccination, and % with diabetes with glycaemic control were associated with higher life expectancy; the % being seen on the same day was associated with higher life expectancy in males only. The variable aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked was a negative predictor in females.

CONCLUSION

The number of GPs, continuity of care, and access in England are declining, and it is worrying that these features of general practice were positively associated with life expectancy.

Influenza: cause or excuse? An analysis of flu's influence on worsening mortality trends in England and Wales, 2010-19

BACKGROUND

England and Wales experienced a stagnation of previously improving life expectancy during the 2010s. Public bodies cited influenza as an important cause.

SOURCES OF DATA

We used data from the Office for National Statistics to examine mortality attributed directly to influenza and to all influenza-like diseases for the total population of England and Wales 2010-19. Several combinations of ICD-10 codes were used to address the possibility of under-counting influenza deaths.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Deaths from influenza and influenza-like diseases declined between 2010 and 2019, while earlier improvements in mortality from all causes of death were stalling and, with some causes, worsening. Our findings support existing research showing that influenza is not an important cause of the stalling of mortality rates 2010-19.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

Influenza was accepted by many as an important cause of stalling life expectancy for much of the 2010s, while few in public office have accepted austerity as a key factor in the changes seen during that time.

GROWING POINTS

This adds to the mounting evidence that austerity damaged health prior to COVID-19 and left the population more vulnerable when it arrived.

AREAS FOR DEVELOPING TIMELY RESEARCH

Future research should explore why so many in public office were quick to attribute the change in trends in overall mortality in the UK in this period to influenza, and why many continue to do so through to 2023 and to deny the key role of austerity in harming population health.

Designing a generic, adaptive protocol resource for the measurement of health impact in cash transfer pilot and feasibility studies and trials in high-income countries

INTRODUCTION

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, upstream interventions that tackle social determinants of health inequalities have never been more important. Evaluations of upstream cash transfer trials have failed to capture comprehensively the impacts that such systems might have on population health through inadequate design of the interventions themselves and failure to implement consistent, thorough research measures that can be used in microsimulations to model long-term impact. In this article, we describe the process of developing a generic, adaptive protocol resource to address this issue and the challenges involved in that process. The resource is designed for use in high-income countries (HIC) but draws on examples from a UK context to illustrate means of development and deployment. The resource is capable of further adaptation for use in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). It has particular application for trials of Universal Basic Income but can be adapted to those covering other kinds of cash transfer and welfare system changes.

METHODS

We outline two types of prospective intervention based on pilots and trials currently under discussion. In developing the remainder of the resource, we establish six key principles, implement a modular approach based on types of measure and their prospective resource intensity, and source (validated where possible) measures and baseline data primarily from routine collection and large, longitudinal cohort studies. Through these measures, we seek to cover all areas of health impact identified in our theoretical model for use in pilot and feasibility studies.

RESULTS

We find that, in general, self-reported measures alongside routinely collected linked respondent data may provide a feasible means of producing data capable of demonstrating comprehensive health impact. However, we also suggest that, where possible, physiological measures should be included to elucidate underlying biological effects that may not be accurately captured through self-reporting alone and can enable modelling of long-term health outcomes. In addition, accurate self-reported objective income data remains a challenge and requires further development and testing. A process of development and implementation of the resource in pilot and feasibility studies will support assessment of whether or not our proposed health outcome measures are acceptable, feasible and can be used with validity and reliability in the target population.

DISCUSSION

We suggest that while Open Access evaluation instruments are available and usable to measure most constructs of interest, there remain some areas for which further development is necessary. This includes self-reported wellbeing measures that require paid licences but are used in a range of nationally important longitudinal studies instead of Open Access alternatives.

Anarchy and Its Overlooked Role in Health and Healthcare

In this paper, I will argue that a number of well-known health interventions or initiatives could be considered anarchist, or at the very least are consistent with anarchist thinking and principles. In doing this I have two aims: First, anarchism is a misunderstood term-by way of example, I hope to first sketch out what anarchist solutions in health and healthcare could look like; second, I hope to show how anarchist thought could stand as a means to improve the health of many, remedying health inequalities acting as a buffer for the many harms that threaten health and well-being. On this second point, I will argue that there are a number of theoretical and instrumental reasons why greater engagement with anarchism and anarchist thinking is needed, along with how this could contribute to health and in addressing broader injustices that create and perpetuate poor health.

The association between social care expenditure and multiple-long term conditions: A population-based area-level analysis

Background

Multiple long-term health conditions (MLTCs) are common and increasing among older people, yet there is limited understanding of their prevalence and association with social care expenditure.

Aim

To estimate the prevalence of MTLCs and association with English social care expenditure.

Methods

Our study population included those aged ≥ 65 who died in England in the year 2018 with any of the following long-term conditions recorded on their death certificate: diabetes; cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) including hypertension; dementia; stroke; respiratory; and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs). Prevalence was based on the proportion of death reported for older people with MTLCs (≥ 2) in each of the 152 English Local Authorities (LAs). Ordinary least square regression (OLS) was used to assess the relationship between prevalence of MTLCs and adult social care expenditure, adjusting for LA characteristics.

Results

Of the 409551 deaths reported, 19.9% (n = 81395) had ≥ 2 MTLCs, of which the combination of CVDs-diabetes was the most prevalent. Hospitals were the leading place of death for those with MTLCs. Results from the OLS regression model showed that an increased prevalence of MLTCs is associated with higher LA social care expenditure. A percentage point increase in prevalence of MLTCs is associated with an increase of about £8.13 in per capita LA social care expenditure.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that the increased prevalence of MTLCs is associated with increased LA social care expenditure. It is important for future studies to further explore the mechanisms or link between LA social care expenditure and the prevalence of MTLCs.

Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women?

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates across the UK stopped improving in the early 2010s, largely attributable to UK Government's 'austerity' policies. Such policies are thought to disproportionately affect women in terms of greater financial impact and loss of services. The aim here was to investigate whether the mortality impact of austerity-in terms of when rates changed and the scale of excess deaths-has also been worse for women.

METHODS

All-cause mortality data by sex, age, Great Britain (GB) nation and deprivation quintile were obtained from national agencies. Trends in age-standardised mortality rates were calculated, and segmented regression analyses used to identify break points between 1981 and 2019. Excess deaths were calculated for 2012-2019 based on comparison of observed deaths with numbers predicted by the linear trend for 1981-2011.

RESULTS

Changes in trends were observed for both men and women, especially for those living in the 20% most deprived areas. In those areas, mortality increased between 2010/2012 and 2017/2019 among women but not men. Break points in trends occurred at similar time points. Approximately 335 000 more deaths occurred between 2012 and 2019 than was expected based on previous trends, with the excess greater among men.

CONCLUSIONS

It remains unclear whether there are sex differences in UK austerity-related health effects. Nonetheless, this study provides further evidence of adverse trends in the UK and the associated scale of excess deaths. There is a clear need for such policies to be reversed, and for policies to be implemented to protect the most vulnerable in society.

Is austerity a cause of slower improvements in mortality in high-income countries? A panel analysis

BACKGROUND

The rate of improvement in mortality slowed across many high-income countries after 2010. Following the 2007-08 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy was dominated by austerity as countries attempted to address perceived problems of growing state debt and government budget deficits. This study estimates the impact of austerity on mortality trends for 37 high-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

We fitted a suite of fixed-effects panel regression models to mortality data (period life expectancy, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-stratified mortality rates and lifespan variation). Austerity was measured using the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index (AAFI), Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB), real indexed Government Expenditure, and Public Social Spending as a % of GDP. Sensitivity analyses varied the lag times, and confined the panel to economic downturns and to non-oil-dominated economies.

RESULTS

Slower improvements, or deteriorations, in life expectancy and mortality trends were seen in the majority of countries, with the worst trends in England & Wales, Estonia, Iceland, Scotland, Slovenia, and the USA, with generally worse trends for females than males. Austerity was implemented across all countries for at least some time when measured by AAFI and CAPB, and for many countries across all four measures (and particularly after 2010). Austerity adversely impacted life expectancy, ASMR, age-specific mortality and lifespan variation trends when measured with Government Expenditure, Public Social Spending and CAPB, but not with AAFI. However, when the dataset was restricted to periods of economic downturn and in economies not dominated hydrocarbon production, all measures of austerity were found to reduce the rate of mortality improvement.

INTERPRETATION

Stalled mortality trends and austerity are widespread phenomena across high-income countries. Austerity is likely to be a cause of stalled mortality trends. Governments should consider alternative economic policy approaches if these harmful population health impacts are to be avoided.

Local area public sector spending and nutritional anaemia hospital admissions in England: a longitudinal ecological study

INTRODUCTION

Reductions in local government spending may have impacts on diets and health which increase the risk of hospital admissions for nutritional anaemias. Mechanisms include potential impacts of changes to local authority (LA) services (eg, housing services) on personal resources and food access, availability and provision. We therefore investigated the association between changes in LA spending and nutritional anaemia-related hospital admissions. Specifically, we address whether greater cuts to LA spending were linked to increased hospital admissions for nutritional anaemias.

DESIGN

Longitudinal analysis of LA panel data using Poisson fixed effects regression models.

SETTING

312 LAs in England (2005-2018).

MAIN EXPOSURE

Total LA service expenditure per capita per year.

MAIN OUTCOME

Principal and total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions, for all ages and stratified by age (0-14, 15-64, 65+ years).

RESULTS

LA service expenditure increased by 9% between 2005 and 2009 then decreased by 20% between 2010 and 2018. Total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions increased between 2005 and 2018 from 173 to 633 admissions per 100 000 population. A £100 higher LA service spending was associated with a 1.9% decrease in total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR): 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96 to 0.99). When stratified by age, this was seen only in adults. A £100 higher LA service spending was associated with a 2.6% decrease in total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions in the most deprived LAs (aIRR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.0).

CONCLUSION

Increased LA spending was associated with reduced hospital admissions for nutritional anaemia. Austerity-related reductions had the opposite effect, increasing admissions, with greater impacts in more deprived areas. This adds further evidence to the potential negative impacts of austerity policies on health and health inequalities. Among other impacts, re-investing in LA services may prevent hospital admissions associated with nutritional anaemias.

Overall mortality trends in Greece during the first period of austerity and the economic crisis (2009-2015)

OBJECTIVES

The economic crisis and the resulting austerity in Greece led to a drastic reduction in healthcare spending, which has been assumed to have impacted people's health. This paper discusses official standardized mortality rates in Greece between 2000 and 2015.

METHODS

This study was designed to analyze population-level data and collected data from the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Eurostat, and the Hellenic Statistics Authority. Separate linear regression models were developed for the periods before and after the crisis and were compared.

RESULTS

Standardized mortality rates do not support a previously reported assumption of a specific and direct negative effect of austerity on global mortality. Standardized rates continued to decrease linearly, and their correlation to economic variables changed after 2009. Total infant mortality rates show an overall rising trend since 2009, but the interpretation is unclear because of the reduction in the absolute number of deliveries.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality data from the first six years of the financial crisis in Greece and the decade that preceded do not support the assumption that budget cuts in health are related to the dramatic worsening of the overall health of the Greek people. Still, data suggest an increase in specific causes of death and the burden on a dysfunctional and unprepared health system that is working in an overstretched manner trying to meet needs. The dramatic acceleration of the aging of the population constitutes a specific challenge for the health system. HIPPOKRATIA 2022, 26 (3):98-104.

Outsourcing health-care services to the private sector and treatable mortality rates in England, 2013-20: an observational study of NHS privatisation

BACKGROUND

The effects of outsourcing health services to for-profit providers are contested, with some arguing that introducing such providers will improve performance through additional competition while others worry that this will lead to cost cutting and poorer outcomes for patients. We aimed to examine this debate by empirically evaluating the impact of outsourced spending to private providers, following the 2012 Health and Social Care Act, on treatable mortality rates and the quality of health-care services in England.

METHODS

For this observational study, we used a novel database composed of parsable procurement contracts between April 1, 2013, and Feb 29, 2020 (n=645 674, value >£25 000, total value £204·1 billion), across 173 clinical commissioning groups (CCGs; regional health boards) in England. Data were compiled from 12 709 heterogenous expenditure files primarily scraped from commissioner websites with supplier names matched to registers identifying them as National Health Service (NHS) organisations, for-profit companies, or charities. We supplemented these data with rates of local mortality from causes that should be treatable by medical intervention, indicating the quality of health-care services. We used multivariate longitudinal regression models with fixed effects at the CCG level to analyse the association of for-profit outsourcing on treatable mortality rates in the following year. We used the average marginal effects to estimate total additional deaths attributable to changes in for-profit outsourcing. We provided alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings, match on background characteristics, examine the potential impact of measurement error, and adjust for possible confounding factors such as population demographics, total CCG expenditure, and local authority expenditure.

FINDINGS

We found that an annual increase of one percentage point of outsourcing to the private for-profit sector corresponded with an annual increase in treatable mortality of 0·38% (95% CI 0·22-0·55; p=0·0016) or 0·29 (95% CI 0·09-0·49; p=0·0041) deaths per 100 000 population in the following year. This finding was robust to matching on background characteristics, adjusting for possible confounding factors, and measurement error in our dataset. Changes to for-profit outsourcing since 2014 were associated with an additional 557 (95% CI 153-961) treatable deaths across the 173 CCGs.

INTERPRETATION

The privatisation of the NHS in England, through the outsourcing of services to for-profit companies, consistently increased in 2013-20. Private sector outsourcing corresponded with significantly increased rates of treatable mortality, potentially as a result of a decline in the quality of health-care services.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Pandemic and the human factor

As the staffing crisis in the UK deepens, it is time for the policy-makers and professional bodies to rethink the approach to the most vital and yet most fragile component of the healthcare system-the human beings. The austerity measures, combined with pandemic and more recently the vision of a backlog with attached unrealistic expectations of tackling it, have brought the NHS and many other healthcare systems to the brink of a crisis. It is a human factors approach, which emphasises clinician's well-being as the core aspect of optimising performance that should become our goal. Delivery of healthcare under circumstances of physical, legal or moral threat cannot be optimal and is not sustainable. The pandemic served to highlight this quite clearly. Also, an injured, tired or burn-out healthcare professional cannot be expected to repair the system that has precipitated his or her condition. The approach to changing the culture of medicine may be multifaceted, but ultimately, we should rethink professionalism and the definition of duty of care putting emphasis on the well-being of those delivering the care as the way to assure best possible care.

COVID-19, Trade, and Health: This Changes Everything? Comment on "What Generates Attention to Health in Trade Policy-Making? Lessons From Success in Tobacco Control and Access to Medicines: A Qualitative Study of Australia and the (Comprehensive and Progressive) Trans-Pacific Partnership"

Townsend and colleagues highlighted the myriad political forces which fostered attention to health issues during negotiations to establish a new trans-pacific trade deal in Australia (the CP-TPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership], formerly known as TPP). Among the factors they identify, exporter interests and exogenous events helped to generate attention to trade-related concerns about tobacco and access medicines, and limited attention to nutrition and alcohol. These are important considerations as the United Kingdom negotiates a trade deal with the United States in haste, whilst at the same time attempting to manage the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this commentary, I reflect on changing attention to trade and nutrition during the COVID-19 pandemic in light of Townsend and colleagues' analysis. I explore scope for greater attention to nutrition in US-UK trade negotiations, and the challenges created by the vested interests of major UK and US processed food exporters. I further discuss the utility of the theoretical tools employed by Townsend and colleagues for wider debates in the political economy of health.

Let's Campaign for a Fairer Society in the Aftermath of COVID-19

In this paper I ground a brief account of the impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom in an understanding of a decade of austerity politics from 2010 to 2020, itself a product of the advent and consolidation of post-1970s financialised or rentier capitalism. I argue that such an analysis is essential if realistic plans are to be laid for a "better"-understood here as a more equitable or "fairer"-society. I go on to consider the contributions that sociology can, and arguably should, make to this end. This involves a range of engagements from scholarship at one end of the spectrum to action or muckraking sociology at the other. In addition to plotting a role for sociology, I suggest a set of criteria for recognizing a "fairer society"; postulate a series of institutional reforms that might characterize the attainment of such a society; and outline and confront social structural, cultural and agential obstacles to its realization. A theme running throughout the paper is that the delineation and promulgation of the "good society" remains central to any credible-that is, post-Enlightenment reconstruction of - the sociological project.

An Observational Cohort Study to Evaluate the Impact of a Tailored Medicines Optimisation Service on Medication Use, Accident and Emergency Department Visits, and Admissions Among Patients Identified with Medication Support Needs in Secondary Care

PURPOSE

Quantifying the impact of pharmacy interventions, such as tailored medicines optimisation, can be challenging owing to the sometimes-indirect nature of their effect on patient outcomes such A&E (Accident & Emergency) attendance, hospital admission and length of stay. This study aimed to assess the impact of the, Lewisham Integrated Medicines Optimisation Service (LIMOS) on medicines self-management, A&E attendances and hospital admissions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study was conducted as a retrospective and prospective observational evaluation of patients referred to LIMOS at University Hospital Lewisham between April and September 2016. Only patients with an appropriate referral that received a LIMOS intervention within the study period were considered eligible. The main outcomes examined pre- and post-LIMOS included medicines self-management, A&E attendance, number of admissions, as well as length of stay.

RESULTS

Data were collected for a total of 193 patients. Over half (56.4%, n = 109) identified as female with a mean age of 78 years at the time of referral. The number of hospital admissions decreased significantly post-LIMOS (-0.36 ± 1.87, 95% CI -0.63-0.10). Furthermore, the mean reduction in length of stay was significant and decreased by over a week (19.58 vs 11.09 days post-LIMOS, -7.67 ± 48.57, 95% CI -14.57--0.78). There was a significant increase in A&E visits observed post-intervention (0.78 ± 1.93, 95% CI 0.50-1.06); however, the majority (63%, n =165/261) occurred over 90 days post-intervention. There was a significant reduction in the number of patients self-managing medication post-LIMOS, with the number of patients receiving additional support with their medication increasing (-0.38 ± 0.50, 95% CI -0.45--0.31). LIMOS, therefore, successfully identified patients who were unable to manage their medicines.

CONCLUSION

Specialist pharmacy interventions, which include support with medicines management, have a positive impact on admission avoidance and length of hospital stay.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

Following therapeutic mammoplasty (TM), the contralateral breast may require a later balancing procedure to optimize shape and symmetry. The alternative is to offer patients simultaneous TM with immediate contralateral symmetrization via a dual-surgeon approach, with the goal of reducing costs and minimizing the number of subsequent hospital appointments in an era of COVID-19 surges. The aim of this cost–consequence analysis is to characterize the cost–benefit of immediate bilateral symmetrization dual-operator mammoplasty versus staged unilateral single operator for breast cancer surgery.

Method

A prospective single-centre observational study was conducted at an academic teaching centre for breast cancer surgery in the UK. Pseudonymized data for clinicopathological variables and procedural care information, including the type of initial breast-conserving surgery and subsequent reoperation(s), were extracted from the electronic patient record. Financial data were retrieved using the Patient-Level Information and Costing Systems.

Results

Between April 2014 and March 2020, 232 women received either immediate bilateral (n = 44), staged unilateral (n = 57) for breast cancer, or unilateral mammoplasty alone (n = 131). The median (interquartile range (i.q.r.)) additional cost of unilateral mammoplasty with staged versus immediate bilateral mammoplasty was €5500 (€4330 to €6570) per patient (P < 0.001), which represents a total supplementary financial burden of €313 462 to the study institution. There was no significant difference between groups in age, Charlson comorbidity index, operating minutes, time to adjuvant radiotherapy in months, or duration of hospital stay.

Conclusion

Synchronous dual-surgeon immediate bilateral TM can deliver safe immediate symmetrization and is financially beneficial, without delay to receipt of adjuvant therapy, or additional postoperative morbidity.

Longitudinal analysis of local government spending on adult social care and carers' subjective well-being in England

OBJECTIVES

Reform of England's social care system is repeatedly discussed in the context of increasing demand, rising costs and austere policies that have decreased service provision. This study investigates the association between unpaid carers' subjective well-being and local government spending on adult social care (ASC).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Our sample consists of 110 188 observations on 29 174 adults in England from the 2004-2007 British Household Panel Survey and the 2009-2018 UK Household Longitudinal Study. The data on local authorities' spending on ASC where participants live is derived from the publications Personal Social Care Expenditure and Unit Costs (2004-2016); and ASC Activity and Finance Report England (2016-2018).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Subjective well-being is measured by the 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and 12-item version of the Mental Component Summary (MCS-12). We applied fixed-effects linear models to investigate the moderating effect of ASC spending on the association between subjective well-being and caring, controlling for a range of socioeconomic and demographic variables.

RESULTS

Carers have a lower level of subjective well-being compared with non-carers, evident in their higher average GHQ-12 Likert score (β=2.7277 95% CI 0.2547 to 5.2008). Differences in the subjective well-being of carers and non-carers decrease with local government spending on ASC. Subjective well-being for carers was at a similar level to that of non-carers in high ASC spending local authorities (GHQ-12: -0.0123 95% CI -0.2185 to 0.1938, MCS-12: 0.0347 95% CI -0.3403 to 0.4098) and lower in other areas (GHQ-12: 0.1893 95% CI 0.0680 to 0.3107, MCS-12: -0.2906 95% CI -0.5107 to -0.0705). The moderating effect of ASC spending is found among people who care for 35+ hours per week.

CONCLUSION

Government spending on ASC protects unpaid carers' well-being, and people providing more than 35 weekly hours of unpaid care are more likely to benefit from the current social care system.

Causal impact of social care, public health and healthcare expenditure on mortality in England: cross-sectional evidence for 2013/2014

OBJECTIVES

The first objective is to estimate the joint impact of social care, public health and healthcare expenditure on mortality in England. The second objective is to use these results to estimate the impact of spending constraints in 2010/2011-2014/2015 on total mortality.

METHODS

The impact of social care, healthcare and public health expenditure on mortality is analysed by applying the two-stage least squares method to local authority data for 2013/2014. Next, we compare the growth in healthcare and social care expenditure pre-2010 and post-2010. We use the difference between these growth rates and the responsiveness of mortality to changes in expenditure taken from the 2013/2014 cross-sectional analysis to estimate the additional mortality generated by post-2010 spending constraints.

RESULTS

Our most conservative results suggest that (1) a 1% increase in healthcare expenditure reduces mortality by 0.532%; (2) a 1% increase in social care expenditure reduces mortality by 0.336%; and (3) a 1% increase in local public health spending reduces mortality by 0.019%. Using the first two of these elasticities and data on the change in spending growth between 2001/2002-2009/2010 and 2010/2011-2014/2015, we find that there were 57 550 (CI 3075 to 111 955) more deaths in the latter period than would have been observed had spending growth during this period matched that in 2001/2002-2009/2010.

CONCLUSIONS

All three forms of public healthcare-related expenditure save lives and there is evidence that additional social care expenditure is more than twice as productive as additional healthcare expenditure. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy in England and Wales since 2010 is attributable to spending constraints in the healthcare and social care sectors.

Does public long-term care expenditure improve care-related quality of life of service users in England?

Public long-term care (LTC) systems provide services to support people experiencing difficulties with their activities of daily living. This study investigates the marginal effect of changes in public LTC expenditure on care-related quality of life (CRQoL) of existing service users in England. The public LTC program for people aged 18 or older in England is called Adult Social Care (ASC) and it is provided and managed by local authorities. We collect data on the outcomes and characteristics of public ASC users, on public ASC expenditure, and on the characteristics of local authorities across England in 2017/18. We employ an instrumental variable approach using conditionally exogenous elements of the public funding system to estimate the effect of public ASC expenditure on user CRQoL. Our findings show that by increasing public ASC expenditure by £1000 per user, on average, local authorities increase user CRQoL by 0.0030. These results suggest that public ASC is effective in increasing users' quality of life but only to a relatively small extent. When combined with the other potential effects of LTC expenditure (e.g., on informal carers, mortality), this study can inform policy makers in the United Kingdom and internationally about whether social care provides good value for money.

Democracies Linked To Greater Universal Health Coverage Compared With Autocracies, Even In An Economic Recession

Despite widespread recognition that universal health coverage is a political choice, the roles that a country's political system plays in ensuring essential health services and minimizing financial risk remain poorly understood. Identifying the political determinants of universal health coverage is important for continued progress, and understanding the roles of political systems is particularly valuable in a global economic recession, which tests the continued commitment of nations to protecting their health of its citizens and to shielding them from financial risk. We measured the associations that democracy has with universal health coverage and government health spending in 170 countries during the period 1990-2019. We assessed how economic recessions affect those associations (using synthetic control methods) and the mechanisms connecting democracy with government health spending and universal health coverage (using machine learning methods). Our results show that democracy is positively associated with universal health coverage and government health spending and that this association is greatest for low-income countries. Free and fair elections were the mechanism primarily responsible for those positive associations. Democracies are more likely than autocracies to maintain universal health coverage, even amid economic recessions, when access to affordable, effective health services matters most.

Local government funding and life expectancy in England: a longitudinal ecological study

Background

Since 2010, large reductions in funding for local government services have been introduced in England. These reductions in funding have potentially led to reduced provision of health-promoting public services. We aimed to investigate whether areas that showed a greater decline in funding also had more adverse trends in life expectancy and premature mortality.

Methods

In this longitudinal ecological study, we linked annual data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government on local government revenue expenditure and financing to 147 upper-tier local authorities in England between 2013 and 2017 with data from Public Health England, on male and female life expectancy at birth, male and female life expectancy at age 65 years, and premature (younger than 75 years) all-cause mortality rate for male and female individuals. Local authorities were excluded if their populations were too small or if changes in boundaries meant consistent data were not available. Using multivariable fixed-effects panel regression models, and controlling for local socioeconomic conditions, we estimated whether changes in local funding from 2013 were associated with changes in life expectancy and premature mortality. We included a set of alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings.

Findings

Between 2013 and 2017, mean per-capita central funding to local governments decreased by 33% or £168 per person (range –£385 to £1). Each £100 reduction in annual per person funding was associated over the study period 2013–17 with an average decrease in life expectancy at birth of 1·3 months (95% CI 0·7–1·9) for male individuals and 1·2 months (0·7–1·7) for female individuals; for life expectancy at age 65 years, the results show a decrease of 0·8 months (0·3–1·3) for male individuals and 1·1 months (0·7–1·5) for female individuals. Funding reductions were greater in more deprived areas and these areas had the worst changes in life expectancy. We estimated that cuts in funding were associated with an increase in the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles by 3% for men and 4% for women. Overall reductions in funding during this period were associated with an additional 9600 deaths in people younger than 75 years in England (3800–15 400), an increase of 1·25%.

Interpretation

Our findings indicate that cuts in funding for local government might in part explain adverse trends in life expectancy. Given that more deprived areas showed greater reductions in funding, our analysis suggests that inequalities have widened. Since the pandemic, strategies to address these adverse trends in life expectancy and reduce health inequalities could prioritise reinvestment in funding for local government services, particularly within the most deprived areas of England.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North East and North Cumbria, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast and Medical Research Council.

How US newspapers view the UK's NHS: a study in international lesson-drawing

Healthcare on both sides of the Atlantic is a highly charged political and economic subject. This work considers US media coverage of the UK's National Health Service (NHS), an under-researched area. We assess the framing of the NHS in editorials, opinion and feature articles during the time of the Obama administration to show how media can perform the role of lesson-drawing, a theory adopted from public policy research. The study also applies the notion of journalistic habitus in this context. Using these ideas, we address a hypothesis which holds that US coverage is framed around the flaws of the UK's NHS. The paper considers how intermedia editorial and news values operate, with commentators drawing a range of negative lessons in both the Democrat- and Republican-supporting press. We find that the NHS was often posited as a flawed international variant of the single-payer model, where newspapers employed an ahistoric explanation of failure and decline.

Why were there 231 707 more deaths than expected in England between 2010 and 2018? An ecological analysis of mortality records

BACKGROUND

Policy responses to the Global Financial Crisis emphasized wide-ranging fiscal austerity measures, many of which have been found to negatively impact health outcomes. This paper investigates change in patterns of mortality at local authority level in England (2010-11 to 2017-18) and the relation with fiscal austerity measures.

METHODS

Data from official local authority administrative records are used to quantify the gap between observed deaths and what was anticipated in the 2010-based subnational population projections. Regression analyses are used to explore the relation between excess deaths, austerity and wider process of population change at local authority level.

RESULTS

We estimate 231 707 total excess deaths, the majority of which occurred since 2014-15 (89%) across the majority of local authorities (91%). Austerity is positively associated with excess deaths. For working age adults, there is a clear gradient to the impact of austerity, whereas for older adults, the impact is more uniform.

CONCLUSIONS

Fiscal austerity policies contributed to an excess of deaths for older people and widened social inequalities for younger populations. These results call for an end to all austerity measures and require further research into areas with the highest total excess deaths as a priority following the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Peer-To-Peer Publication Model on Blockchain

In the past few decades, there has been a sharp rise of research irreproducibility and retraction, to a point that now is deemed as a crisis. Addressing this crisis, we present a peer-to-peer (P2P) publication model that utilizes blockchain and smart contract technologies. Focusing primarily on researchers and reviewers, the conceptual P2P publication model addresses the sociocultural and incentivization aspects of the irreproducibility crisis. In the P2P publication model, instead of a complete publication, a preapproved experimental design will be published on an incremental basis (unit-by-unit) and authorship will be shared with reviewers. The concept of the P2P publication model was inspired by the transformational journey the music publishing industry has undertaken as it traverses through vinyl age (complete albums) to the Spotify age (single-by-single), where there is a growing inclination among artists toward building an incremental album, taking account of feedback from fans and utilizing automated revenue collection and sharing systems. The ability to publish incrementally through the P2P publication model will relieve researchers from the burden of publishing complete and “good results” while simultaneously incentivizing reviewers to undertake rigorous review work to gain authorship credit in the research. The proposed P2P publication model aims to transform the century-old publication model and incentivization structure in alignment with open access publication ethos of the 21st century.

Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England

OBJECTIVES

To estimate life expectancy at the local authority level and detect those areas that have a substantially low life expectancy after accounting for deprivation.

DESIGN

We used registration data from the Office for National Statistics on mortality and population in England, by local authority, age group and socioeconomic deprivation decile, for both men and women over the period 2001-2018. We used a statistical model within the Bayesian framework to produce robust mortality rates, which were then transformed to life expectancy estimates. A rule based on exceedance probabilities was used to detect local authorities characterised by a low life expectancy among areas with a similar deprivation level from 2012 onwards.

RESULTS

We confirmed previous findings showing differences in the life expectancy gap between the most and least deprived areas from 2012 to 2018. We found variations in life expectancy trends across local authorities, and we detected a number of those with a low life expectancy when compared with others of a similar deprivation level.

CONCLUSIONS

There are factors other than deprivation that are responsible for low life expectancy in certain local authorities. Further investigation on the detected areas can help understand better the stalling of life expectancy which was observed from 2012 onwards and plan efficient public health policies.

How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000-2002 to 2015-2017

OBJECTIVE

Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000-2002 to 2012-2014 and 2012-2014 to 2015-2017.

SETTING

Scotland.

METHODS

Life expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga's method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.

RESULTS

Annualised gains in life expectancy between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55-84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30-54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer's disease, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Future research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.

Austerity on the frontline- a preliminary study of physiotherapists working in the National Health Service in the UK

BACKGROUND

Organizational reform has been commonplace in the response to global socio-economic changes. Rising managerialism, consumerism and marketization has accelerated reforms; providing challenges for the healthcare professions. The latest socio-economic challenge, austerity, and its professional implications have scarcely been researched. This study aims to explore the lived reality of austerity as experienced by physiotherapists working on the frontline of the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK.

METHODS

Ethical approval was granted by the University of Nottingham; the study was advertised via the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy online network. Two participants took part; semi-structured interviews were completed, audio recorded, and transcribed. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis.

FINDINGS

Three themes arose from the data: (1) Fulfilling professional responsibilities; (2) Changing organizational landscape; and (3) Professional reality of rationalizing and accommodating austerity. The clinical implications of austerity included increased length of hospital stay, insufficient community services, constrained resources, and understaffing. Participants demonstrated attempts to preserve their professional status and services through restratification throughout the intra-professional hierarchy, changing division of labor, and re-professionalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite claims that austerity is coming to an end, it remained a reality for these clinicians in the NHS. Physiotherapists in this study used similar methods to preserve practice when faced with exogenous constraints as seen in medicine, such as re-professionalization and restratification. However, this attempt to defend professionalism by a non-medical healthcare profession was met with both successes and losses and has implications for the wider healthcare profession ecology, identifying an area for future research.

Substance Use Disorders and COVID-19: Multi-Faceted Problems Which Require Multi-Pronged Solutions

COVID-19 shocked health and economic systems leaving millions of people without employment and safety nets. The pandemic disproportionately affects people with substance use disorders (SUDs) due to the collision between SUDs and COVID-19. Comorbidities and risk environments for SUDs are likely risk factors for COVID-19. The pandemic, in turn, diminishes resources that people with SUD need for their recovery and well-being. This article presents an interdisciplinary and international perspective on how COVID-19 and the related systemic shock impact on individuals with SUDs directly and indirectly. We highlight a need to understand SUDs as biopsychosocial disorders and use evidence-based policies to destigmatize SUDs. We recommend a suite of multi-sectorial actions and strategies to strengthen, modernize and complement addiction care systems which will become resilient and responsive to future systemic shocks similar to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Can changes in spending on health and social care explain the recent mortality trends in Scotland? A protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION

There have been steady reductions in mortality rates in the majority of high-income countries, including Scotland, since 1945. However, reductions in mortality rates have slowed down since 2012-2014 in these nations; and have reversed in some cases. Deaths among those aged 55+ explain a large amount of these changing mortality trends in Scotland. Increased pressures on health and social care services have been suggested as one factor explaining these changes. This paper outlines a protocol for the approach to testing the extent to which health and social care pressures can explain recent mortality trends in Scotland. Although a slower rate of mortality improvements have affected people of all ages, certain ages have been more negatively affected than the others. The current analyses will be run by age-band to test if the service pressure-mortality link varies across age-group.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This will be an observational ecological study based on the Scottish population. The exposures of interest will be the absolute (primary outcome) and percentage (secondary outcome) change in real terms per capita spending on social and healthcare services between 2011 and 2017. The outcome of interest will be the absolute (primary outcome) and percentage (secondary outcome) change in age-standardised mortality rate between 2012 and 2018 for men and women separately. The units of analysis will be the 32 local authorities and the 14 territorial health boards. The analyses will be run for both all age-groups combined and for the following age bands: <1, 1-15, 16-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+.A series of descriptive analyses will summarise the distribution of health and social care expenditure and mortality trends between 2011 and 2018. Linear regression analysis will be used to investigate the direct association between health care spending and mortality rates.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The data used in this study will be publicly available and aggregated and will not be individually identifiable; therefore, ethical committee approval is not needed. This work will not result in the creation of a new data set. On completion, the study will be stored within the National Health Service research governance system. All of the results will be published once they have been shared with partner agencies.

Navigating environmental constraints to injection preparation: the use of saliva and other alternatives to sterile water among unstably housed PWID in London

Background

The United Kingdom is experiencing an increase in drug-related deaths and serious bacterial infections among its most vulnerable citizens. Cuts to essential services, coupled with a growing homeless population, create a challenging environment to tackle this public health crisis. In this paper, we highlight an underexplored environmental constraint faced by people living and injecting drugs on the streets. Access to water for injection is restricted in the UK, due to legislative and financial barriers. Austerity measures, such as public toilet closures, further restrict the ability of people made homeless to access clean water and protect themselves from health harms.

Methods

We generated questionnaire (n = 455) and in-depth qualitative interview (n = 32) data with people who inject drugs in London for the Care and Prevent study. Participants provided detail on their life history; drug use, injecting and living environments; health conditions and care seeking practices.

Findings

A high proportion of the survey sample reported lifetime history of street homelessness (78%), bacterial infections (65%) and related hospitalisation (30%). Qualitative accounts highlight unsafe, potentially dangerous, injection practices in semi-public spaces. Multiple constraints to sourcing sterile water for injection preparation were reported. Alternatives to sterile water included puddle water, toilet cistern water, whisky, cola soda and saliva. Participants who injected heroin and crack cocaine together unanimously reported adding water at two stages during injection preparation: first, adding water as a vehicle for heroin (which was then heated); second, adding cold water to the heroin mixture prior to adding the crack cocaine. This new finding of a stage addition of solvent may represent an additional risk of infection.

Conclusion

Currently, harm reduction equipment and resources for safe injecting are not meeting the needs of people who inject drugs who are street homeless or unstably housed. Preparation of injections with non-sterile water sources could precipitate bacterial and fungal infections, particularly when used without the application of heat. It is crucial that water for injection, also skin cleaning, is made available for the unstably housed and that harm reduction messaging is tailored to speak to the everyday realities of people who prepare and inject drugs in public spaces.

The differential impact of economic recessions on health systems in middle-income settings: a comparative case study of unequal states in Brazil

Introduction

Although economic crises are common in low/middle-income countries (LMICs), the evidence of their impact on health systems is still scant. We conducted a comparative case study of Maranhão and São Paulo, two unevenly developed states in Brazil, to explore the health financing and system performance changes brought in by its 2014-2015 economic recession.

Methods

Drawing from economic and health system research literature, we designed a conceptual framework exploring the links between macroeconomic factors, labour markets, demand and supply of health services and system performance. We used data from the National Health Accounts and National Household Sample Survey to examine changes in Brazil's health spending over the 2010-2018 period. Data from the National Agency of Supplementary Health database and the public health budget information system were employed to compare and contrast health financing and system performance of São Paulo and Maranhão.

Results

Our analysis shows that Brazil's macroeconomic conditions deteriorated across the board after 2015-2016, with São Paulo's economy experiencing a wider setback than Maranhão's. We showed how public health expenditures flattened, while private health insurance expenditures increased due to the recession. Public financing patterns differed across the two states, as health funding in Maranhão continued to grow after the crisis years, as it was propped up by transfers to local governments. While public sector staff and beds per capita in Maranhão were not affected by the crisis, a decrease in public physicians was observed in São Paulo.

Conclusion

Our case study suggests that in a complex heterogeneous system, economic recessions reverberate unequally across its parts, as the effects are mediated by private spending, structure of the market and adjustments in public financing. Policies aimed at mitigating the effects of recessions in LMICs will need to take such differences into account.

A "health in all policies" review of Canadian public finance

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Il est démontré que la santé est principalement le fruit de ses déterminants sociaux, et comme de fait, la recherche sur les systèmes de santé montre que les dépenses publiques relatives aux programmes sociaux sont souvent plus fortement corrélées à la santé des populations que les investissements dans les soins médicaux. Notre étude vise à aider les Cabinets provinciaux et fédéraux du Canada à en prendre acte en introduisant le concept de « la santé dans toutes les politiques » (Health in All Policies, ou HiAP) dans les débats budgétaires. MéTHODE: L'étude est descriptive; elle analyse des données secondaires accessibles au public sur les budgets fédéraux et provinciaux pour déterminer comment le financement public des investissements dans les déterminants sociaux de la santé (DSS) aux stades précoces (< 45 ans) et ultérieurs (65 ans et plus) du parcours de vie a évolué depuis 1976 par rapport aux investissements dans les soins médicaux. RéSULTATS: Les dépenses en soins médicaux ont augmenté de 3 983 $ par personne de 65 ans et plus depuis 1976. Cette augmentation dépasse de 45 % l'augmentation combinée des dépenses en services de garde, en congés parentaux, en aide au revenu familial, en éducation et en soins médicaux par personne pour les moins de 45 ans. De toutes les nouvelles dépenses pour les Canadiens plus jeunes, les soins médicaux ont reçu les investissements les plus importants. Alors que les dépenses médicales pour les retraités ont dépassé d'un peu plus de la moitié le rythme des dépenses en revenus de retraite, les dépenses médicales pour les Canadiens plus jeunes ont augmenté presque autant que les dépenses pour l'ensemble des politiques de DSS à leur endroit. CONCLUSION: Depuis 1976, il y a une plus grande concordance entre l'approche HiAP et le financement public du Canada pour les aînés que pour les Canadiens plus jeunes. Ces résultats offrent aux décideurs d'importantes informations rétrospectives pour évaluer les futurs investissements publics dans les soins médicaux et les déterminants sociaux de la santé pour tout le parcours de vie, ainsi que les plans de financement de ces investissements.

Epidemiology of adult rib fracture and factors associated with surgical fixation: Analysis of a chest wall injury dataset from England and Wales

INTRODUCTION

Chest wall trauma is commonly seen in patients admitted with both high and low-energy transfer injury. Whilst often associated with other injuries, it is also seen in isolation following simple falls in the older patient. Fixation of the chest wall grows in popularity as part of optimising patient care, particularly in terms of critical care stay. There is currently no description of the epidemiology of these injuries at a national level; nor has there been identification of factors that predict which of these patients undergoes surgery.

METHODS

The United Kingdom Trauma Audit & Research Network (TARN) database was analysed for the period April 2016 to 30th May 2017 for all adult patients presenting with a rib or sternal fracture. Characteristics of the population were described and a binary logistic regression model constructed to explore the influences of several explanatory variables on whether fixation was performed.

RESULTS

Of 16,638 patients with chest wall trauma, 402 underwent fixation. Most chest wall injury patients were admitted under three specialties (orthopaedics (19.1%), emergency medicine (16.6%) and general surgery (17.7%)). The odds of fixation in unilateral flail chest was 107.51 (p <0.0001), in bilateral flail or combined complexsternal fracture 47.63 (p = 0.007) and in 3 or more non-flail ribs 15.62 (p<0.0001) when compared to less than three non-flail rib fractures. The odds of fixation was higher in an MTC (p<0.0001) compared to a non-specialist hospital. The odds of fixation was higher in older patients (1.02, p<0.0001) and the more severely injured (1.02, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

There is considerable variation nationally in the management of chest wall trauma. Injury type, patient age and care setting contribute to decision making in fracture fixation. This unique national dataset characterises for the first time the nature of contemporary chest wall trauma management and should help inform the design of future research on this topic.

Is austerity responsible for the recent change in mortality trends across high-income nations? A protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION

Mortality rates in many high-income countries have changed from their long-term trends since around 2011. This paper sets out a protocol for testing the extent to which economic austerity can explain the variance in recent mortality trends across high-income countries.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an ecological natural experiment study, which will use regression adjustment to account for differences in exposure, outcomes and confounding. All high-income countries with available data will be included in the sample. The timing of any changes in the trends for four measures of austerity (the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index, real per capita government expenditure, public social spending and the cyclically adjusted primary balance) will be identified and the cumulative difference in exposure to these measures thereafter will be calculated. These will be regressed against the difference in the mean annual change in life expectancy, mortality rates and lifespan variation compared with the previous trends, with an initial lag of 2 years after the identified change point in the exposure measure. The role of underemployment and individual incomes as outcomes in their own right and as mediating any relationship between austerity and mortality will also be considered. Sensitivity analyses varying the lag period to 0 and 5 years, and adjusting for recession, will be undertaken.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All of the data used for this study are publicly available, aggregated datasets with no individuals identifiable. There is, therefore, no requirement for ethical committee approval for the study. The study will be lodged within the National Health Service research governance system. All results of the study will be published following sharing with partner agencies. No new datasets will be created as part of this work for deposition or curation.

Reasons behind the rising rate of involuntary admissions under the Mental Health Act (1983): Service use and cost impact

There has been a significant rise in the use of the Mental Health Act (1983) in England over the last 10 years. This includes both health-based Place of Safety detentions and involuntary admissions to NHS mental health facilities. Although these trends should clearly inform the implementation of mental health care and legislation, there is currently little understanding of what caused these increased rates. We therefore sought to explore potential underlying reasons for the increase in involuntary admissions and Place of Safety detentions and to ascertain the associated service costs. We extracted publicly available data to ascertain the observed number of involuntary admissions (Section 2 or 3) and health-based Place of Safety detentions in England between 1999/2000 and 2015/2016. A simple regression analysis then enabled us to compare observed admission rates with predicted rates, between 2008/2009 and 2015/2016. This prediction model was based on observed figures before 2008. We then generated a costing model for these rates and compared admission costs to alternative interventions. Finally, we added relevant covariates to the prediction model, to explore potential relationships with observed rates. Since 2008/2009, there has been a marked increase in the number of involuntary admissions (38%) and Place of Safety detentions (617%). The analysis revealed that for involuntary admissions, the period of greatest increase occurred after 2012, two years after austerity measures were implemented. For Place of Safety detentions, substantial rises were seen from 2008/2009 to 2015/2016, coinciding with the economic recession. The rise in Place of Safety detentions may have been worsened by a reduction in mental health bed availability. During the study period, involuntary admissions are estimated to have cost the English NHS £6.8 billion; with a further £120 million spent on Place of Safety detentions. This is approximately £597 million greater than predicted, had involuntary admissions continued to change at pre-2008 rates. We conclude that the rise in involuntary admissions, and to a lesser extent Place of Safety detentions, were associated with three specific impactful events: the economic recession, legislative changes and the impact of austerity measures on health and social care services. In addition to the extensive arguments presented elsewhere, there is also an urgent economic case for addressing this trend.

Impact of Changes to National Hypertension Guidelines on Hypertension Management and Outcomes in the United Kingdom

In recent years, national and international guidelines have recommended the use of out-of-office blood pressure monitoring for diagnosing hypertension. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critics expressed concerns this would increase cardiovascular morbidity. We assessed the impact of these changes on the incidence of hypertension, out-of-office monitoring and cardiovascular morbidity using routine clinical data from English general practices, linked to inpatient hospital, mortality, and socio-economic status data. We studied 3 937 191 adults with median follow-up of 4.2 years (49% men, mean age=39.7 years) between April 1, 2006 and March 31, 2017. Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine the impact of changes to English hypertension guidelines in 2011 on incidence of hypertension (primary outcome). Secondary outcomes included rate of out-of-office monitoring and cardiovascular events. Across the study period, incidence of hypertension fell from 2.1 to 1.4 per 100 person-years. The change in guidance in 2011 was not associated with an immediate change in incidence (change in rate=0.01 [95% CI, -0.18-0.20]) but did result in a leveling out of the downward trend (change in yearly trend =0.09 [95% CI, 0.04-0.15]). Ambulatory monitoring increased significantly in 2011/2012 (change in rate =0.52 [95% CI, 0.43-0.60]). The rate of cardiovascular events remained unchanged (change in rate =-0.02 [95% CI, -0.05-0.02]). In summary, changes to hypertension guidelines in 2011 were associated with a stabilisation in incidence and no increase in cardiovascular events. Guidelines should continue to recommend out-of-office monitoring for diagnosis of hypertension.

'It's what you do that makes a difference' An interpretative phenomenological analysis of health care professionals and home care workers experiences of nutritional care for people living with dementia at home

Background

People living with dementia at home are a group who are at increased risk of malnutrition. Health care professionals and home care workers, are ideally placed to support nutritional care in this vulnerable group. Yet, few, if any studies, have captured the experiences of these workers in respect of treating and managing nutritional issues. This interpretative phenomenological study aimed to explore the experiences and perceptions of the nutritional care of people living with dementia at home from the perspectives of health care professionals and home care workers.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews were conducted between December 2017 and March 2018, and supplemented with the use of a vignette outlining a scenario of a husband caring for his wife with dementia. Health care professionals and home care workers were purposively recruited from local care providers in the south west of England, who had experience of working with people with dementia. An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) approach was used throughout.

Results

Seven participants took part including two home care workers, a general practitioner, dietitian, occupational therapist, nurse and social worker. The time in their professions ranged from 3 to 15 years (mean = 8.9 years). Following analysis, four superordinate themes were identified: ‘responsibility to care’, ‘practice restrained by policy’, ‘in it together’, and ‘improving nutritional care’. This group of health care professionals and home care workers recognised the importance of improving nutritional care for people living with dementia at home, and felt a responsibility for it. However they felt that they were restricted by time and/or knowledge. The importance of supporting the family carer and working collaboratively was highlighted.

Conclusions

Health care professionals and home care workers require further training to better equip them to provide nutritional care for people living with dementia at home. Models of care may also need to be adapted to enable a more flexible and tailored approach to incorporate nutritional care. Future work in this area should focus on how health care professionals and home care workers can be better equipped to screen for malnutrition, and support changes to nutritional intake to mitigate malnutrition risk.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1270-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Moral Distress and Austerity: An Avoidable Ethical Challenge in Healthcare

Austerity, by its very nature, imposes constraints by limiting the options for action available to us because certain courses of action are too costly or insufficiently cost effective. In the context of healthcare, the constraints imposed by austerity come in various forms; ranging from the availability of certain treatments being reduced or withdrawn completely, to reductions in staffing that mean healthcare professionals must ration the time they make available to each patient. As austerity has taken hold, across the United Kingdom and Europe, it is important to consider the wider effects of the constraints that it imposes in healthcare. Within this paper, we focus specifically on one theorised effect-moral distress. We differentiate between avoidable and unavoidable ethical challenges within healthcare and argue that austerity creates additional avoidable ethical problems that exacerbate clinicians' moral distress. We suggest that moral resilience is a suitable response to clinician moral distress caused by unavoidable ethical challenges but additional responses are required to address those that are created due to austerity. We encourage clinicians to engage in critical resilience and activism to address problems created by austerity and we highlight the responsibility of institutions to support healthcare professionals in such challenging times.