The impact of demographic and risk factor changes on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing, 1999-2010

Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Coronary Artery Disease Using Extreme Gradient Boosting

Purpose

Early recognition of coronary artery disease (CAD) could delay its progress and significantly reduce mortality. Sensitive, specific, cost-efficient and non-invasive indicators for assessing individual CAD risk in community population screening are urgently needed.

Patients and Methods

3112 patients with CAD and 3182 controls were recruited from three clinical centers in China, and differences in baseline and clinical characteristics were compared. For the discovery cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to identify significant features and four machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) were applied to construct models for CAD risk assessment, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and precision-recall (PR) curve were conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy. The optimal model was interpreted by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis and assessed by the ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and validated by two external cohorts.

Results

Using LASSO filtration, all included variables were considered to be statistically significant. Four machine learning models were constructed based on these features and the results of ROC and PR curve implied that the XGBoost model exhibited the highest predictive performance, which yielded a high area of ROC curve (AUC) of 0.988 (95% CI: 0.986-0.991) to distinguish CAD patients from controls with a sensitivity of 94.6% and a specificity of 94.6%. The calibration curve showed that the predicted results were in good agreement with actual observations, and DCA exhibited a better net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. External validation of the model also exhibited favorable discriminatory performance, with an AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.945-0.960), 89.9%, and 87.1% in the validation cohort, and 0.935 (95% CI: 0.915-0.955), 82.0%, and 90.3% in the replication cohort.

Conclusion

Our model is highly informative for clinical practice and will be conducive to primary prevention and tailoring the precise management for CAD patients.

Prognostic factors of MINOCA and their possible mechanisms

Objective

Despite not showing substantial stenosis of coronary arteries, Myocardial Infarction with Non-Obstructive Coronary Arteries (MINOCA) presents with myocardial ischemia injury, thus having a grave prognosis and a high risk of long-term complications. This necessitates increased clinical attention and exploration of its root causes to prevent a similar crisis.

Methods

Research on MINOCA is limited, especially in terms of its clinical attributes, long-term outlook, risk stratification, and prognosis-linked cardiometabolic risk factors. This review aims to fill these gaps, providing an extensive overview of clinical trials and studies on MINOCA to separate the issue from the presence of non-obstructive coronary arteries in cardiac patients.

Results

It has been found that MINOCA patients still face a high risk of long-term adverse events. Due to social and physiological factors, the hospital mortality rate is higher among women, and they are also more susceptible to MINOCA. Cardiac metabolic risk factors, including disorder of glucose and lipid metabolism, as well as changes in serum CysC levels, have significant impacts on the occurrence and prognosis of MINOCA.

Conclusions

Further research is still needed to fully understand the complex biological mechanisms underlying the prognostic factors of MINOCA. A profound understanding of these factors could reveal potential targets for improving prognosis, thereby indicating new strategies for managing this cardiovascular condition.

Dietary fat quality, plasma atherogenic lipoproteins, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: An overview of the rationale for dietary recommendations for fat intake

The scientific evidence supporting the current dietary recommendations for fat quality keeps accumulating; however, a paradoxical distrust has taken root among many researchers, clinicians, and in parts of the general public. One explanation for this distrust may relate to an incomplete overview of the totality of the evidence for the link between fat quality as a dietary exposure, and health outcomes such as atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Therefore, the main aim of the present narrative review was to provide a comprehensive overview of the rationale for dietary recommendations for fat intake, limiting our discussion to ASCVD as outcome. Herein, we provide a core framework - a causal model - that can help us understand the evidence that has accumulated to date, and that can help us understand new evidence that may become available in the future. The causal model for fat quality and ASCVD is comprised of three key research questions (RQs), each of which determine which scientific methods are most appropriate to use, and thereby which lines of evidence that should feed into the causal model. First, we discuss the link between low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles and ASCVD (RQ1); we draw especially on evidence from genetic studies, randomized controlled trials (RCTs), epidemiology, and mechanistic studies. Second, we explain the link between dietary fat quality and LDL particles (RQ2); we draw especially on metabolic ward studies, controlled trials (randomized and non-randomized), and mechanistic studies. Third, we explain the link between dietary fat quality, LDL particles, and ASCVD (RQ3); we draw especially on RCTs in animals and humans, epidemiology, population-based changes, and experiments of nature. Additionally, the distrust over dietary recommendations for fat quality may partly relate to an unclear understanding of the scientific method, especially as applied in nutrition research, including the process of developing dietary guidelines. We therefore also aimed to clarify this process. We discuss how we assess causality in nutrition research, and how we progress from scientific evidence to providing dietary recommendations.

Mild renal insufficiency and attributable risk of adverse In-hospital outcomes in patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome from the improving care for Cardiovascular Disease in China (CCC) project

Background

Renal insufficiency (RI) is a frequent comorbidity among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to evaluate the attributable risk associated with mild RI for the in-hospital outcomes in patients with ACS.

Methods

The Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-ACS (CCC-ACS) Project was a collaborative study of the American Heart Association and the Chinese Society of Cardiology. A total of 92,509 inpatients with a discharge diagnosis of ACS were included. The attributable risk was calculated to investigate the effect of mild RI (eGFR 60-89 ml / min · 1.73 m²) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) during hospitalization.

Results

The average age of these ACS patients was 63 years, and 73.9% were men. The proportion of patients with mild RI was 36.17%. After adjusting for other possible risk factors, mild RI was still an independent risk factor for MACEs in ACS patients. In the ACS patients, the attributable risk of eGFR 60-89ml/min·1.73m² to MACEs was 7.78%, 4.69% of eGFR 45-59 ml/min·1.73m², 4.46% of eGFR 30-44 ml/min·1.73m², and 3.36% of eGFR<30 ml/min·1.73m².

Conclusion

Compared with moderate to severe RI, mild RI has higher attributable risk to MACEs during hospitalization in Chinese ACS population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-022-02663-4.

Burden of Metabolic Syndrome Among a Low-Income Population in China: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a chronic and complex disease associated with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. The present study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of MetS and its risk factors among middle-aged and older adults in low-income, low-education rural areas with a high incidence of stroke.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study of the general population was performed from April 2019 to June 2019 in rural areas of Tianjin, China. All eligible residents aged ≥ 45 years and without active malignant tumors, hepatic failure, and severe renal disease underwent routine medical examinations, which included a questionnaire, physical examination, and routine blood and biochemical tests. The modified International Diabetes Federation criteria for the Asian population was used to identify patients with MetS.

RESULTS

A total of 3175 individuals (44.8% men, 55.2% women) were included in the final analysis. The prevalence of MetS was 52.8%, with higher prevalence in women than in men (62.4%and 40.9%, respectively). Of the five MetS components, high blood pressure and abdominal obesity were the two most prevalent in both women and men, accounting for 89.3% and 62.0%, respectively, followed by elevated fasting plasma glucose, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and elevated triglycerides. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following traits to be risk factors for MetS: female sex, self-reported smoking, self-reported snoring, high body mass index, high waist-to-hip ratio, and high serum urate level.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of MetS was quite high in rural areas with a low-income, low-education population. Implementing preventive and therapeutic interventions based on these risk factors is essential to prevent metabolic abnormalities.

Health-Related Quality of Life and Its Influencing Factors in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease in China

PURPOSE

This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate Chinese coronary heart disease (CHD) patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using various measures and explore influencing factors associated with HRQoL.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to September 2019 in the General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University. A convenience sampling framework was used to successively recruit 316 inpatients with CHD. Two generic preference-based instruments (EQ-5D-5L and 15D), a disease-specific instrument (Seattle Angina Questionnaire, SAQ), and the WHO-5 well-being index (WHO-5) were administered. Tobit regression model and multiple linear regression were used for data analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 305 patients (mean age was 62.9) with CHD participated in this study. The mean health state utility (HSU) scores of EQ-5D-5L and 15D were 0.85 (SD=0.14) and 0.89 (SD=0.07), respectively. For EQ-5D-5L, pain/discomfort was the most frequently reported, followed by anxiety/depression. As for 15D, discomfort and symptoms was the most severely impaired dimension. For SAQ, more limitations were found in the domains of angina stability and disease perception. For WHO-5, the mean score was 16.93. Marital status, disease state and comorbidity were influencing factors associated with HRQoL, patient's subjective well-being had a positive impact on HRQoL.

CONCLUSION

To improve the HRQoL of CHD patients in China, more attention needs to be paid to unmarried and relapsed patients, especially those with comorbidity of hypertension. Additionally, more social support and psychological counseling should be provided to patients.

Disability-adjusted life years associated with population ageing in China, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

The Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.

METHODS

Based on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.

RESULTS

Population ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Coronary Artery Disease Using Machine Learning

Early identification of coronary artery disease (CAD) can prevent the progress of CAD and effectually lower the mortality rate, so we intended to construct and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of CAD based on conventional risk factors and lab test data. There were 3,112 CAD patients and 3,182 controls enrolled from three centers in China. We compared the baseline and clinical characteristics between two groups. Then, Random Forest algorithm was used to construct a model to predict CAD and the model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In the development cohort, the Random Forest model showed a good AUC 0.948 (95%CI: 0.941–0.954) to identify CAD patients from controls, with a sensitivity of 90%, a specificity of 85.4%, a positive predictive value of 0.863 and a negative predictive value of 0.894. Validation of the model also yielded a favorable discriminatory ability with the AUC, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 0.944 (95%CI: 0.934–0.955), 89.5%, 85.8%, 0.868, and 0.886 in the validation cohort 1, respectively, and 0.940 (95%CI: 0.922–0.960), 79.5%, 94.3%, 0.932, and 0.823 in the validation cohort 2, respectively. An easy-to-use tool that combined 15 indexes to assess the CAD risk was constructed and validated using Random Forest algorithm, which showed favorable predictive capability (http://45.32.120.149:3000/randomforest). Our model is extremely valuable for clinical practice, which will be helpful for the management and primary prevention of CAD patients.

Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from -43.9% to 117.4% for males and -30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million). Population ageing was related to increases in deaths in 152 countries for males and 159 countries for females, and decreases in deaths in 43 countries for males and 36 countries for females, between 1990 and 2017. The decreases in deaths attributed to mortality change from 1990 to 2017 were more than the increases in deaths related to population ageing for the whole world, as well as in 55.3% (84/152) of countries for males and 47.8% (76/159) of countries for females where population ageing was associated with increased death burden. As the GBD 2017 does not provide variances in the estimated death numbers, we were not able to quantify uncertainty in our attribution estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that population ageing was associated with substantial changes in numbers of deaths between 1990 and 2017, but the attributed proportion of deaths varied widely across country income levels, countries, and causes of death. Specific preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented in different countries and territories to address the growing health needs related to population ageing, especially targeting the diseases associated with the largest increase in number of deaths in the elderly.

Coronary heart disease mortality is decreasing in Argentina, and Colombia, but keeps increasing in Mexico: a time trend study

Background

Mortality rates due to coronary heart disease (CHD) have decreased in most countries, but increased in low and middle-income countries. Few studies have analyzed the trends of coronary heart disease mortality in Latin America, specifically the trends in young-adults and the effect of correcting these comparisons for nonspecific causes of death (garbage codes). The objective of this study was to describe and compare standardized, age-specific, and garbage-code corrected mortality trends for coronary heart disease from 1985 to 2015 in Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico.

Methods

Deaths from coronary heart disease were grouped by country, year of registration, sex, and 10-year age bands to calculate age-adjusted and age and sex-specific rates for adults aged ≥25. We corrected for garbage-codes using the methodology proposed by the Global Burden of Disease. Finally, we fitted Joinpoint regression models.

Results

In 1985, age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population were 136.6 in Argentina, 160.6 in Colombia, and 87.51 in Mexico; by 2015 rates decreased 51% in Argentina and 6.5% in Colombia, yet increased by 61% in Mexico, where an upward trend in mortality was observed in young adults. Garbage-code corrections produced increases in mortality rates, particularly in Argentina with approximately 80 additional deaths per 100,000, 14 in Colombia and 13 in Mexico.

Conclusions

Latin American countries are at different stages of the cardiovascular disease epidemic. Garbage code correction produce large changes in the mortality rates in Argentina, yet smaller in Mexico and Colombia, suggesting garbage code corrections may be needed for specific countries. While coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is falling in Argentina, modest falls in Colombia and substantial increases in Mexico highlight the need for the region to propose and implement population-wide prevention policies.

Implications of the growing burden of diabetes for premature cardiovascular disease mortality and the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major cause of deaths globally, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of these deaths. 42% of NCD deaths are premature (occurring before the age of 70 years). As part of the United Nations 3rd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on health and wellbeing, target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one third between 2015 and 2030. This target adds to the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by 25% between 2010 and 2025. As diabetes is a major risk factor for CVD, it is important to account for the trends in diabetes when considering premature CVD mortality. We aimed to describe the global trends in diabetes prevalence and mortality, critically review the literature on the estimated attainability of the WHO and SDG targets, and determine if and how these studies accounted for trends in diabetes. Worldwide, the prevalence of diabetes is rising, with an estimated 9.0% global prevalence in adults aged 20-69 by 2030, and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) having the largest increase of the burden in absolute numbers and age-standardized prevalence. There is a lack of data from most LMICs on the excess CVD mortality associated with diabetes and therefore no consensus on the global risk of CVD mortality in people with diabetes. Where data do exist, there are discrepancies between studies on the direction of mortality trends from diabetes over time. We reviewed 12 studies that estimated the attainability of the WHO or SDG targets for premature NCD mortality. Seven of these considered the potential impacts of achieving the 2025 WHO risk factor targets. Six studies modelled the impact of current trends in risk factors, including diabetes, continuing toward the target dates. Four studies compared this 'business as usual' model with the attainment of the risk factor targets for the world as whole and individual regions, 2 studies for NCD mortality overall, and 2 specifically for CVD mortality. On the impact of diabetes with regards to attainment of the WHO or SDG targets for premature CVD mortality, the overall results were inconclusive. Some concluded that none of the countries or regions considered would meet the targets, and others predicted that in some areas, the targets would be met. Examining the potential impact of trends in diabetes on future CVD mortality rates in LMICs is limited by a relative lack of high quality studies, including on the age specific excess mortality associated with diabetes. Filling these data gaps will enable better estimates of the potential impacts on future CVD mortality of the rapidly increasing prevalence of diabetes in LMICs and help to better inform health policy and the attainment of SDG target 3.4.

The Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease in China

In contrast with most developed countries, mortality due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) continues to rise in China. We examined the effects of age, period, and cohort on IHD mortality in urban and rural populations from 1987 to 2013 to identify the drivers of this trend. Region-specific data on annual IHD mortality among adults aged 20 to 84 years and corresponding population statistics were collected. We then tested for age, period, and cohort effects using the Intrinsic Estimator approach. Our results indicated that IHD mortality in China increased significantly over the three decades studied. There was a log-linear increase in the age effect on IHD mortality as those aged 80–84 showed 277 and 161 times greater IHD mortality risk than those aged 20–24 in urban and rural populations, respectively. While there was an upward trend in the period effect in both populations, the influence of the cohort effect on mortality decreased over time for those born from 1904 to 1993. The age, period, and cohort effects on mortality in China were generally comparable between urban and rural populations. The results suggest that population aging is a major driver behind the rapid rise in IHD mortality. Increased exposure to air pollution may also have played a role in driving the period effect

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China)

BACKGROUND

The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts.

METHODS

Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline.

RESULTS

Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ² of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ² values in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease.

Rationale and design of the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China (CCC) project: A national effort to prompt quality enhancement for acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

A sizeable gap exists between guideline recommendations for treatment of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and application of these recommendations in clinical practice. The CCC-ACS project is a novel national quality enhancement registry designed to help medical care providers bridge this gap, thereby improving clinical outcomes for ACS patients in China.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The CCC-ACS project uses data collection, analysis, feedback, rapid-cycle improvement, and performance recognition to extend the use of evidence-based guidelines throughout the health care system and improve cardiovascular health. The project was launched in 2014, with 150 centers recruited representing the diversity of care for ACS patients in tertiary hospitals across China. Clinical information for patients with ACS is collected via a Web-based data collecting platform, including patients' demographics, medical history, symptoms on arrival, in-hospital treatment and procedures, in-hospital outcomes, and discharge medications for secondary prevention. Improvement in adherence to guideline recommendations is facilitated through monthly benchmarked hospital quality reports, recognition of hospital quality achievement, and regular webinars. As of April 16, 2016, a total of 35,616 ACS cases have been enrolled.

CONCLUSIONS

The CCC-ACS is a national hospital-based quality improvement program, aiming to increase adherence to ACS guidelines in China and improve patient outcomes.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities

Objectives

This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation.

Design

To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival.

Results

The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made.

Conclusions

The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Burden of ischemic heart diseases in Iran, 1990-2010: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2010

Background:

Cardiovascular diseases are viewed worldwide as one of the main causes of death. This study aims to report the burden of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) in Iran by using data of the global burden of disease (GBD) study, 1990-2010.

Materials and Methods:

The GBD study 2010 was a systematic effort to provide comprehensive data to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for diseases and injuries in the world. Years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality were computed on the basis of cause-of-death estimates, using Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years lived with disability (YLDs) were assessed by the multiplication of prevalence, the disability weight for a sequel, and the duration of symptoms. A systematic review of published and unpublished data was performed to evaluate the distribution of diseases, and consequently prevalence estimates were calculated with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR). Data from population-based surveys were used for producing disability weights. Uncertainty from all inputs into the calculations of DALYs was disseminated by Monte Carlo simulation techniques.

Results:

The age-standardized IHDs DALY specified rate decreased 31.25% over 20 years from 1990 to 2010 [from 4720 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4,341-5,099) to 3,245 (95% UI: 2,810-3,529) person-years per 100,000]. The decrease were 38.14% among women and 26.87% among men. The age-standardized IHDs death specefied rate decreased by 21.17% [from 222) 95% UI: 207-243 (to 175 (95% UI:152-190) person-years per 100,000] in both the sexes. The age-standardized YLL and YLD rates decreased 32.05% and 4.28%, respectively, in the above period.

Conclusion:

Despite decreasing age-standardized IHD of mortality, YLL, YLD, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2010, population growth and aging increased the global burden of IHD. YLL has decreased more than IHD deaths and YLD since 1990 but IHD mortality remains the greatest contributor to disease burden.

Heavier smoking may lead to a relative increase in waist circumference: evidence for a causal relationship from a Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis. The CARTA consortium

OBJECTIVES

To investigate, using a Mendelian randomisation approach, whether heavier smoking is associated with a range of regional adiposity phenotypes, in particular those related to abdominal adiposity.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730 in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, of the associations of smoking heaviness with a range of adiposity phenotypes.

PARTICIPANTS

148,731 current, former and never-smokers of European ancestry aged ≥ 16 years from 29 studies in the consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Waist and hip circumferences, and waist-hip ratio.

RESULTS

The data included up to 66,809 never-smokers, 43,009 former smokers and 38,913 current daily cigarette smokers. Among current smokers, for each extra minor allele, the geometric mean was lower for waist circumference by -0.40% (95% CI -0.57% to -0.22%), with effects on hip circumference, waist-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) being -0.31% (95% CI -0.42% to -0.19), -0.08% (-0.19% to 0.03%) and -0.74% (-0.96% to -0.51%), respectively. In contrast, among never-smokers, these effects were higher by 0.23% (0.09% to 0.36%), 0.17% (0.08% to 0.26%), 0.07% (-0.01% to 0.15%) and 0.35% (0.18% to 0.52%), respectively. When adjusting the three central adiposity measures for BMI, the effects among current smokers changed direction and were higher by 0.14% (0.05% to 0.22%) for waist circumference, 0.02% (-0.05% to 0.08%) for hip circumference and 0.10% (0.02% to 0.19%) for waist-hip ratio, for each extra minor allele.

CONCLUSIONS

For a given BMI, a gene variant associated with increased cigarette consumption was associated with increased waist circumference. Smoking in an effort to control weight may lead to accumulation of central adiposity.

Rapid emergence of atherosclerosis in Asia: a systematic review of coronary atherosclerotic heart disease epidemiology and implications for prevention and control strategies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There is a global epidemic of coronary heart disease (CHD) caused by atherosclerosis. We discussed its emergence, underlying reasons, and implications for prevention and control strategies in Asia.

RECENT FINDINGS

Most countries in Asia are experiencing the challenges from CHD, with the mortality rate varying from 103 to 366 per 100 000 adult populations, reported by recently published studies. Raised population cholesterol levels played a pivotal role. Men, older adults, and those with dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes were high-risk individuals. During the past decade, there was a marked rising trend of atherosclerosis-related burden particularly in Eastern Asia where an alarming increase of 117.2 and 115.3% of total deaths and disability adjusted life-years, respectively, were observed. The rise of CHD could be attributed to unhealthy lifestyles, clinical-risk factors, psychosocial factors, and public health transitions. Ageing, urbanization, and increase in prosperity may serve as underlying key drivers.

SUMMARY

The burden of CHD is substantial, whereas contributors are multifactorial. This grand challenge should be a top priority for injecting healthcare resources. The formulation of public health measures will need to adopt an integrated and life-course approach, based on the need and risks of different population subgroups in Asia.

Joint effect of modifying selected risk factors on attributable burden of cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

There are few published studies that consider the joint effect of multiple risk factors on avoidable burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to estimate the joint effect of avoidable burden of multiple risk factors to CVDs.

METHODS

Estimates of avoidable burden to CVDs were made using potential impact fraction (PIF). In order to calculate PIF, data on the Prevalence of the risk factors include diabetes, hypertension, central obesity, and hypercholesterolemia were obtained from 3(rd) national Surveillance of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases-2007 in Iran and data on corresponding measures of effect were derived from a cohort study with multivariate adjusted hazard ratios. Then, joint effect of risk factors was calculated.

RESULTS

About 37% (95% uncertainty interval: 21.7-50.2) of attributable disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to CVDs in adult males and 59.4% (95% uncertainty interval: 30-76) in adult females due to selected risk factors are avoidable in theoretical minimum risk levels. After changing the current prevalence of these risk factors to the plausible minimum risk levels, 17.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 10.1-25.1) of CVDs' attributable DALYs among adult males and 34% (95% uncertainty interval: 20-46.7) in adult females can be avoided.

CONCLUSIONS

To better priority setting as well as reporting the magnitude of avoidable DALYs rather than the percentage of avoidable burden, PIF should be applied to updated and revised burden of CVDs.

The decline and rise of coronary heart disease: understanding public health catastrophism

The decline of coronary heart disease mortality in the United States and Western Europe is one of the great accomplishments of modern public health and medicine. Cardiologists and cardiovascular epidemiologists have devoted significant effort to disease surveillance and epidemiological modeling to understand its causes. One unanticipated outcome of these efforts has been the detection of early warnings that the decline had slowed, plateaued, or even reversed. These subtle signs have been interpreted as evidence of an impending public health catastrophe. This article traces the history of research on coronary heart disease decline and resurgence and situates it in broader narratives of public health catastrophism. Juxtaposing the coronary heart disease literature alongside the narratives of emerging and reemerging infectious disease helps to identify patterns in how public health researchers create data and craft them into powerful narratives of progress or pessimism. These narratives, in turn, shape public health policy.

Use of evidence to support healthy public policy: a policy effectiveness-feasibility loop

Public policy plays a key role in improving population health and in the control of diseases, including non-communicable diseases. However, an evidence-based approach to formulating healthy public policy has been difficult to implement, partly on account of barriers that hinder integrated work between researchers and policy-makers. This paper describes a "policy effectiveness-feasibility loop" (PEFL) that brings together epidemiological modelling, local situation analysis and option appraisal to foster collaboration between researchers and policy-makers. Epidemiological modelling explores the determinants of trends in disease and the potential health benefits of modifying them. Situation analysis investigates the current conceptualization of policy, the level of policy awareness and commitment among key stakeholders, and what actually happens in practice, thereby helping to identify policy gaps. Option appraisal integrates epidemiological modelling and situation analysis to investigate the feasibility, costs and likely health benefits of various policy options. The authors illustrate how PEFL was used in a project to inform public policy for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in four parts of the eastern Mediterranean. They conclude that PEFL may offer a useful framework for researchers and policy-makers to successfully work together to generate evidence-based policy, and they encourage further evaluation of this approach.

Russian mortality trends in the early XXI century: official statistics data

From the second half of the XX century, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains one of the main problems of the modern medicine. Over the last two decades, developed countries demonstrated a marked decrease in all-cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular. InRussia, since the mid-1960s, all-cause mortality gradually increased, with the proportion of CVD deaths being over 50 %, which led to unparalleled high levels of national mortality. In 2009, the absolute number of CVD deaths was 1136661, or 1 case out of 1,8. In other words, 3114 Russian people die from CVD every day. From 2004, all-cause mortality, including CVD mortality, started to decline, and this tendency has continued until at least 2009, as demonstrated by the mortality rate of 801 per 100,000. However, the mortality levels are still higher than in the late 1980s. The authors analysed the CVD dynamics between 2003 (the highest levels) and 2009 inclusive, using the official national statistics data. The last few years demonstrated a positive tendency of declining mortality. In particular, the all-cause mortality (deaths per 100,000) decreased from1644,2 in2003 to1416,8 in2009 (by 13,8 %). CVD mortality decreased by 13,6 %, and more markedly mostly in working-age people (by 18,9 %). Therefore, in 2009, the number of lives saved due to the decreasing CVD mortality was 260741. Further studies will explain the recent mortality trends inRussia.

Interventions for cardiovascular disease prevention

Cardiovascular disease prevention is a continuum that encompasses the life-course. This article discusses preventive strategies focusing on policy and clinical initiatives including primordial prevention (lifestyle changes involving smoking, diet and exercise), primary prevention (risk factor control), and secondary prevention (acute and chronic disease management). Combined use of all the three strategies can have an immediate and large impact on reducing CVD morbidity and mortality.

Translating evidence into policy for cardiovascular disease control in India

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading causes of premature mortality in India. Evidence from developed countries shows that mortality from these can be substantially prevented using population-wide and individual-based strategies. Policy initiatives for control of CVD in India have been suggested but evidence of efficacy has emerged only recently. These initiatives can have immediate impact in reducing morbidity and mortality. Of the prevention strategies, primordial involve improvement in socioeconomic status and literacy, adequate healthcare financing and public health insurance, effective national CVD control programme, smoking control policies, legislative control of saturated fats, trans fats, salt and alcohol, and development of facilities for increasing physical activity through better urban planning and school-based and worksite interventions. Primary prevention entails change in medical educational curriculum and improved healthcare delivery for control of CVD risk factors-smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes. Secondary prevention involves creation of facilities and human resources for optimum acute CVD care and secondary prevention. There is need to integrate various policy makers, develop effective policies and modify healthcare systems for effective delivery of CVD preventive care.

Ethnic and sex differences in the incidence of hospitalized acute myocardial infarction: British Columbia, Canada 1995-2002

Background

As populations in Western countries continue to change in their ethnic composition, there is a need for regular surveillance of diseases that have previously shown some health disparities. Earlier data have already demonstrated high rates of cardiovascular mortality among South Asians and relatively lower rates among people of Chinese descent. The aim of this study was to describe the differences in the incidence of hospitalized acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among the three largest ethnic groups in British Columbia (BC), Canada.

Methods

Using hospital administrative data, we identified all patients with incident AMI in BC between April 1, 1995, and March 31, 2002. Census data from 2001 provided the denominator for the entire BC population. Ethnicity was determined using validated surname analysis and applied to the census and hospital administrative datasets. Direct age standardization was used to compare incidence rates.

Results

A total of 34,848 AMI cases were identified. Among men, South Asians had the highest age standardized rate of AMI hospitalization at 4.97/1000 population/year, followed by Whites at 3.29, and then Chinese at 0.98. Young South Asian men, in particular, showed incidence rates that were double that of young Whites and ten times that of young Chinese men. South Asian women also had the highest age-standardized rate of AMI hospitalization at 2.35/1000 population/year, followed by White women (1.53) and Chinese women (0.49).

Conclusions

South Asians continue to have a higher incidence of hospitalized AMI while incidence rates among Chinese remain low. Ethnic differences are most notable among younger men.

Future cardiovascular disease in china: markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-china

BACKGROUND

The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades.

CONCLUSIONS

Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Defining and setting national goals for cardiovascular health promotion and disease reduction: the American Heart Association's strategic Impact Goal through 2020 and beyond

This document details the procedures and recommendations of the Goals and Metrics Committee of the Strategic Planning Task Force of the American Heart Association, which developed the 2020 Impact Goals for the organization. The committee was charged with defining a new concept, cardiovascular health, and determining the metrics needed to monitor it over time. Ideal cardiovascular health, a concept well supported in the literature, is defined by the presence of both ideal health behaviors (nonsmoking, body mass index <25 kg/m(2), physical activity at goal levels, and pursuit of a diet consistent with current guideline recommendations) and ideal health factors (untreated total cholesterol <200 mg/dL, untreated blood pressure <120/<80 mm Hg, and fasting blood glucose <100 mg/dL). Appropriate levels for children are also provided. With the use of levels that span the entire range of the same metrics, cardiovascular health status for the whole population is defined as poor, intermediate, or ideal. These metrics will be monitored to determine the changing prevalence of cardiovascular health status and define achievement of the Impact Goal. In addition, the committee recommends goals for further reductions in cardiovascular disease and stroke mortality. Thus, the committee recommends the following Impact Goals: "By 2020, to improve the cardiovascular health of all Americans by 20% while reducing deaths from cardiovascular diseases and stroke by 20%." These goals will require new strategic directions for the American Heart Association in its research, clinical, public health, and advocacy programs for cardiovascular health promotion and disease prevention in the next decade and beyond.