Frequency and impact of confounding by indication and healthy vaccinee bias in observational studies assessing influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review

Association between mRNA COVID-19 vaccine boosters and mortality in Japan: The VENUS study

Although previous studies have shown no increased mortality risk after the primary series of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, reports on booster doses are lacking. This study aimed to evaluate mortality risk after the mRNA vaccine boosters in addition to the primary series. This nested case-control study included two age-specific cohorts (18-64 and ≥65 years as of February 1, 2021) in two municipalities. All deaths were identified and matched five controls for each case at each date of death (index date) with risk set sampling according to municipality, age, and sex. The adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mRNA vaccines (first to fifth doses) were estimated by comparing with no vaccination within 21 and 42 days before the index date using a conditional logistic regression model. The 18-64-years cohort comprised 431 cases (mean age, 57.0 years; men, 58.2%) and 2,155 controls (mean age, 56.0; men, 58.2%), whereas the ≥65-years cohort comprised 12,166 cases (84.0; 50.2%) and 60,830 controls (84.0, 50.2%). The aORs (95% CI) in 0-21 days after the third and fourth doses in the 18-64-years cohort were 0.62 (0.24, 1.62) and 0.38 (0.08, 1.84), respectively. The aORs (95% CI) after the third to fifth doses in the ≥65 years cohort were 0.36 (0.31, 0.43), 0.30 (0.25, 0.37), and 0.26 (0.20, 0.33), respectively. In conclusion, booster doses of mRNA vaccines do not increase mortality risk. These findings could help subsequent vaccine campaigns and alleviate vaccine hesitancy.

Clinical risk stratification: Development and validation of the DAAE score, a tool for estimating patient risk of transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Because secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is associated with worse prognosis, early predictive tools are needed. We aimed to use systematic literature review and advanced methods to create and validate a clinical tool for estimating individual patient risk of transition to SPMS over five years.

METHODS

Data from the Jacobs Multiple Sclerosis Center (JMSC) and the Multiple Sclerosis Center Amsterdam (MSCA) was collected between 1994 and 2022. Participants were relapsing-remitting adult patients at initial evaluation. We created the tool in four stages: (1) identification of candidate predictors from systematic literature review, (2) ordinal cutoff determination, (3) feature selection, (4) feature weighting.

RESULTS

Patients in the development/internal-validation/external-validation datasets respectively (n = 787/n = 522/n = 877) had a median age of 44.1/42.4/36.6 and disease duration of 7.7/6.2/4.4 years. From these, 12.6 %/10.2 %/15.4 % converted to SPMS (median=4.9/5.2/5.0 years). The DAAE Score was named from included predictors: Disease duration, Age at disease onset, Age, EDSS. It ranges from 0 to 12 points, with risk groups of very-low=0-2, low=3-7, medium=8-9, and high≥10. Risk of transition to SPMS increased proportionally across these groups in development (2.7 %/7.4 %/18.8 %/40.2 %), internal-validation (2.9 %/6.8 %/26.8 %/36.5 %), and external-validation (7.5 %/9.6 %/22.4 %/37.5 %).

CONCLUSION

The DAAE Score estimates individual patient risk of transition to SPMS consistently across datasets internationally using clinically-accessible data. With further validation, this tool could be used for clinical risk estimation.

Association between COVID-19 vaccination and stroke: a nationwide case-control study in Qatar

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 mRNA vaccination and stroke in Qatar.

METHODS

Between December 1, 2020, and April 11, 2023, a matched case-control study was conducted to investigate the association between 3036 acute stroke cases and 3036 controls drawn from the entire population of Qatar.

RESULTS

The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for vaccination among cases compared to controls was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.75-1.00). The aOR was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.45-1.23) for a single vaccine dose, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.73-1.04) for primary-series vaccination (two doses), and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.66-1.25) for booster vaccination (three or more doses). The aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.72-1.04) for BNT162b2 and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.67-1.11) for mRNA-1273. Subgroup analyses, considering different durations since vaccination, also demonstrated no association. Subgroup analyses based on nationality, age, number of coexisting conditions, or prior infection status yielded similar results. Subgroup analysis, stratified by stroke type, suggested an association between vaccination and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (aOR of 2.50 [95% CI: 0.97-6.44]), but it did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

There was no evidence of an increased risk of stroke following vaccination, both in the short term and in the long term, extending beyond a year after receiving the vaccine.

Confounding and Negative Control Methods in Observational Study of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Effectiveness: A Nationwide, Population-Based Danish Health Registry Study

Background

Observational studies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness are prone to confounding, which can be illustrated using negative control methods.

Methods

Nationwide population-based cohort study including two cohorts of Danish residents 60-90 years of age matched 1:1 on age and sex: A vaccinated and a non-vaccinated cohort, including 61052 SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated individuals between 1 March and 1 July 2021 and 61052 individuals not vaccinated preceding 1 July 2021. From these two cohorts, we constructed negative control cohorts of individuals diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection or acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, low energy fracture, or head-trauma. Outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infection, negative control outcomes (eg, mammography, prostate biopsy, operation for cataract, malignant melanoma, examination of eye and ear), and death. We used Cox regression to calculate adjusted incidence and mortality rate ratios (aIRR and aMRR).

Results

Risks of SARS-CoV2 infection and all negative control outcomes were elevated in the vaccinated population, ranging from an aIRR of 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09-1.21) for eye examinations to 3.05 (95% CI: 2.24-4.14) for malignant melanoma. Conversely, the risk of death in the SARS-CoV-2 infected cohort and in all negative control cohorts was lower in vaccinated individuals, ranging from an aMRR of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.19-0.26) after SARS-CoV-2 infection to 0.50 (95% CI: 0.37-0.67) after stroke.

Conclusion

Our findings indicate that observational studies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness may be subject to substantial confounding. Therefore, randomized trials are essential to establish vaccine efficacy after the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and the rollout of multiple booster vaccines.

Effectiveness of self-financed rotavirus vaccines on acute gastroenteritis primary care episodes using real-world data in Spain: a propensity score-matched analysis of cohort study

The objective of this study was to estimate, by a novel spatiotemporal approach in an environment of non-funded rotavirus (RV) vaccines, the RV vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent acute gastroenteritis primary care (AGE-PC)-attended episodes, demonstrating how indirect protection leads to underestimation of direct VE under high vaccine coverage (VC). This population-based retrospective cohort study used electronic healthcare registries including all children 2 months-5 years old, born from 2009 to 2018 in the Valencia Region (Spain). Direct RV VE preventing AGE-PC episodes was estimated using propensity score matching and Poisson regressions stratified by VC, adjusted by age and calendar season. Indirect VE was estimated by Poisson regression comparing AGE-PC rates in unvaccinated children among the different VC levels. A total of 563,442 children were included for the RV VC estimation; of them, 360,576 were included in the birth-cohort for VE analysis. RV VC showed strong variability among districts and seasons, rising on average from 21% in 2009/2010 to 55% in 2017/2018. The highest direct VE was found in vaccinated children from districts with 0-30% RV VC (16.4%) and the lowest in those from districts with ≥ 70% RV VC (9.7%). The indirect protection in unvaccinated children raised from 6 to 16.6% for those living with 20-30% and ≥ 70% VC, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Considering that RV is the causative agent in 20% of AGE cases, a direct effectiveness of 82% preventing AGE-PC episodes due to RV could be deduced using a novel spatiotemporal approach. A reduction of 17% of AGE-PC episodes in unvaccinated was observed in areas with VC over 70% because of indirect protection.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• The effectiveness of RV vaccines preventing hospitalizations due to RV-acute gastroenteritis (RV-AGE) has been extensively studied. However, RV also burdens the primary care (PC) setting, and data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing AGE-PC visits are scarce. • The RV vaccine distribution in Spain (non-funded), with large differences in vaccine coverage (VC) among healthcare districts, provides an ideal scenario to assess the actual VE in preventing AGE-PC consultations, including the direct and indirect protection.

WHAT IS NEW

• A direct effectiveness of 82% preventing AGE-PC episodes due to RV could be deduced using a novel spatiotemporal approach. A reduction of 17% of AGE-PC episodes in unvaccinated was observed in areas with high VC because of indirect protection. • These findings, together with existing data on the impact on hospitalizations due to RV-AGE, offer valuable insights for implementing vaccination initiatives in countries that have not yet commenced such programs.

A Critical Analysis of All-Cause Deaths during COVID-19 Vaccination in an Italian Province

Immortal time bias (ITB) is common in cohort studies and distorts the association estimates between the treated and untreated. We used data from an Italian study on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, with a large cohort, long follow-up, and adjustment for confounding factors, affected by ITB, with the aim to verify the real impact of the vaccination campaign by comparing the risk of all-cause death between the vaccinated population and the unvaccinated population. We aligned all subjects on a single index date and considered the "all-cause deaths" outcome to compare the survival distributions of the unvaccinated group versus various vaccination statuses. The all-cause-death hazard ratios in univariate analysis for vaccinated people with 1, 2, and 3/4 doses versus unvaccinated people were 0.88, 1.23, and 1.21, respectively. The multivariate values were 2.40, 1.98, and 0.99. Possible explanations of this trend of the hazard ratios as vaccinations increase could be a harvesting effect; a calendar-time bias, accounting for seasonality and pandemic waves; a case-counting window bias; a healthy-vaccinee bias; or some combination of these factors. With 2 and even with 3/4 doses, the calculated Restricted Mean Survival Time and Restricted Mean Time Lost have shown a small but significant downside for the vaccinated populations.

Herpes zoster vaccination and new diagnoses of dementia: A quasi-randomized study in Australia

Increasing evidence suggests that neurotropic herpesviruses could play a role in the development of dementia, possibly through a neuroinflammatory process. Herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination has been reported to lead to a reduced probability of being diagnosed with dementia in several correlational studies and in a prior analysis by our team in Wales. This present study constitutes the first investigation to use a quasi-randomized study design in an electronic health record dataset from a large and diverse nation (Australia) to aim to determine the effect of HZ vaccination on dementia. In Australia, starting on November 1 2016, live-attenuated HZ vaccination was provided for free to individuals aged 70 to 79 years of age through primary care providers. Thus, those whose 80th birthday was just a few days prior to November 1 2016 never became eligible, whereas those whose 80th birthday was just a few days later were eligible. The key advantage of our approach is that one would not expect that these population groups who differ in their age by only a minute degree would, on average, differ in any of their health characteristics and behaviors. We used detailed primary healthcare records with week-of-birth information from 65 general practices across Australia. We analyzed our data using a regression discontinuity approach. Our sample consisted of 101,219 patients. As expected, patients born just before versus shortly after the date-of-birth eligibility threshold (November 2 1936) for HZ vaccination were well-balanced in their past preventive health services uptake and chronic disease diagnoses. There was an abrupt increase of 15.7 (95% CI: [12.2 - 19.3], p < 0.001) percentage points in the probability of ever receiving HZ vaccination between patients born shortly before versus shortly after the eligibility threshold. The eligibility rules of the HZ vaccination program, thus, created comparison groups just on either side of the date-of-birth eligibility threshold who were similar to each other, except for a large difference in their probability of receiving the intervention (HZ vaccination) of interest. Eligibility for HZ vaccination (i.e., being born shortly before versus shortly after November 2 1936) decreased the probability of receiving a new dementia diagnosis over 7.4 years by 2.0 percentage points (95% CI: [0.3 - 3.7], p = 0.021). Being eligible for HZ vaccination did not affect the probability of taking up other preventive health services (including other vaccinations), nor the probability of being diagnosed with other common chronic conditions than dementia. This study provides important evidence on the potential benefits of HZ vaccination for dementia because its quasi-randomized design allows for conclusions that are more likely to be causal than those of the existing associational evidence.

Pneumococcal vaccination effectiveness (PCV13 and PPSV23) in individuals with and without reduced kidney function: a test-negative design study

Background

Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccination effectiveness (VE) in individuals with reduced kidney function is unknown. We estimated pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), and combined PCV13 and PPSV23 effectiveness against pneumococcal disease in individuals with and without reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

Methods

All eligible individuals (case and controls) were adults (aged ≥18 years) hospitalized within the Geisinger Health System and required to have S. pneumoniae urinary antigen testing (i.e. test-negative design). Vaccination records were obtained from the electronic health record and statewide vaccination registry. After controlling for the probability of receiving a pneumococcal vaccine, we used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of vaccination between those who did and did not meet the S. pneumoniae case definition. VE was calculated as (1 - OR) × 100%.

Results

There were 180 cases and 3889 controls (mean age 69 years, female 48%, white 97%, mean eGFR 71 mL/min/1.73 m2). The adjusted population PCV13 VE was 39% (95% CI 13%-58%), and combination PCV13 and PPSV23 was 39% (95% CI 12%-58%). PPSV23 VE was -3.7% (95% CI -57% to 32%). Stratified by eGFR, adjusted PCV13 VE was consistent in eGFR ≥60 [VE 38% (95% CI 2.9%-61%)] and 30-59 [VE 61% (95% CI 24%-80%)] without significant interaction. VE was not calculable for eGFR <30 due to small sample size.

Conclusion

PCV13 vaccination was associated with reduced risk of S. pneumoniae hospitalization in individuals with a reduced eGFR (30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2).

Prior COVID-19 vaccination and reduced risk of cerebrovascular diseases among COVID-19 survivors

The effects of COVID-19 vaccination on short-term and long-term cerebrovascular risks among COVID-19 survivors remained unknown. We conducted a national multi-center retrospective cohort study with 151 597 vaccinated and 151 597 unvaccinated COVID-19 patients using the TriNetX database, from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2023. Patients baseline characteristics were balanced with propensity score matching (PSM). The outcomes were incident cerebrovascular diseases occurred between 1st and 30th days (short-term) after COVID-19 diagnosis. Nine subgroup analyses were conducted to explore potential effect modifications. We performed six sensitivity analyses, including evaluation of outcomes between 1st to 180th days, accounting for competing risk, and incorporating different variant timeline to test the robustness of our results. Kaplan-Meier curves and Log-Rank tests were performed to evaluate survival difference. Cox proportional hazards regressions were adopted to estimate the PSM-adjusted hazard ratios (HR). The overall short-term cerebrovascular risks were lower in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group (HR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56-0.77), specifically cerebral infarction (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.48-0.79), occlusion and stenosis of precerebral arteries (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.53-0.98), other cerebrovascular diseases (HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.42-0.77), and sequelae of cerebrovascular disease (HR: 0.39, 95% CI:0.23-0.68). Similarly, the overall cerebrovascular risks were lower in those vaccinated among most subgroups. The long-term outcomes, though slightly attenuated, were consistent (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.73-0.87). Full 2-dose vaccination was associated with a further reduced risk of cerebrovascular diseases (HR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.50-0.80) compared to unvaccinated patients. Unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors have significantly higher cerebrovascular risks than their vaccinated counterparts. Thus, clinicians are recommended to monitor this population closely for stroke events during postinfection follow-up.

Is vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella associated with reduced rates of antibiotic treatments among children below the age of 2 years? Nationwide register-based study from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden

OBJECTIVES

Previous studies have shown that vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) may have beneficial non-specific effects, reducing the risk of infections not targeted by the vaccine. We investigated if MMR vaccine given after the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP3), was associated with reduced rates of antibiotic treatments.

METHODS

Register-based cohort study following children from the age of recommended MMR vaccination until age 2 years. We included 831,287 children born in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden who had received DTaP3 but not yet MMR vaccine. Cox proportional hazards regression with age as the underlying timescale and vaccination status as a time-varying exposure was used to estimate covariate-adjusted Hazard Ratios (aHRs) and inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) HRs of antibiotic treatments. Summary estimates were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Compared with only having received DTaP3, receipt of MMR vaccine after DTaP3 was associated with reduced rates of antibiotic treatments in all countries: the aHR was 0.92 (0.91-0.93) in Denmark, 0.92 (0.90-0.94) in Finland, 0.84 (0.82-0.85) in Norway, and 0.87 (0.85-0.90) in Sweden, yielding a summary estimate of 0.89 (0.85-0.93). A stronger beneficial association was seen in a negative control exposure analysis comparing children vaccinated with DTaP3 vs two doses of DTaP.

CONCLUSIONS

Across the Nordic countries, receipt of MMR vaccine after DTaP3 was associated with an 11% lower rate of antibiotic treatments. The negative control analysis suggests that the findings are affected by residual confounding. Findings suggest that potential non-specific effects of MMR vaccine are of limited clinical and public health importance for the milder infections treated out-of-hospital in the Nordic setting.

High-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine for Prevention of Cardiovascular and Respiratory Hospitalizations in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

We assessed the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-SD) in preventing respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalizations in older adults.

METHODS

FinFluHD was a phase 3b/4 modified double-blind, randomized pragmatic trial. Enrolment of 121,000 adults ≥65 years was planned over three influenza seasons (October to December 2019-2021). Participants received a single injection of QIV-HD or QIV-SD. The primary endpoint was first occurrence of an unscheduled acute respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalization (ICD-10 primary discharge J/I codes), from ≥14 days post-vaccination until May 31. The study was terminated after one season due to COVID-19; follow-up data for 2019-2020 are presented.

RESULTS

33,093 participants were vaccinated (QIV-HD, n = 16,549; QIV-SD, n = 16,544); 529 respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalizations (QIV-HD, n = 257; QIV-SD, n = 272) were recorded. The rVE of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD to prevent respiratory/cardiovascular hospitalizations was 5.5% (95% CI, -12.4 to 20.7). When prevention of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations were considered separately, rVE estimates of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD were 5.4% (95% CI, -28.0 to 30.1) and 7.1% (95% CI, -15.0 to 25.0), respectively. Serious adverse reactions were <0.01% in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite insufficient statistical power due to the impact of COVID-19, rVE point estimates demonstrated a trend toward a benefit of QIV-HD over QIV-SD. QIV-HD was associated with lower respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalization rates than QIV-SD, with a comparable safety profile. Adequately powered studies conducted over multiple influenza seasons are needed to determine statistical significance of QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD against preventing respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04137887.

Vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 in patients with pulmonary hypertension: A national prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has potential risks for both clinically worsening pulmonary hypertension (PH) and increasing mortality. However, the data regarding the protective role of vaccination in this population are still lacking. This study aimed to assess the safety of approved vaccination for patients with PH.

METHODS

In this national prospective cohort study, patients diagnosed with PH (World Health Organization [WHO] groups 1 and 4) were enrolled from October 2021 to April 2022. The primary outcome was the composite of PH-related major adverse events. We used an inverse probability weighting (IPW) approach to control for possible confounding factors in the baseline characteristics of patients.

RESULTS

In total, 706 patients with PH participated in this study (mean age, 40.3 years; mean duration after diagnosis of PH, 8.2 years). All patients received standardized treatment for PH in accordance with guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of PH in China. Among them, 278 patients did not receive vaccination, whereas 428 patients completed the vaccination series. None of the participants were infected with COVID-19 during our study period. Overall, 398 patients received inactivated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine, whereas 30 received recombinant protein subunit vaccine. After adjusting for baseline covariates using the IPW approach, the odds of any adverse events due to PH in the vaccinated group did not statistically significantly increase (27/428 [6.3%] vs. 24/278 [8.6%], odds ratio = 0.72, P = 0.302). Approximately half of the vaccinated patients reported at least one post-vaccination side effects, most of which were mild, including pain at the injection site (159/428, 37.1%), fever (11/428, 2.6%), and fatigue (26/428, 6.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination did not significantly augment the PH-related major adverse events for patients with WHO groups 1 and 4 PH, although there were some tolerable side effects. A large-scale randomized controlled trial is warranted to confirm this finding. The final approval of the COVID-19 vaccination for patients with PH as a public health strategy is promising.

The safety of seasonal influenza vaccination among adults prescribed immune checkpoint inhibitors: A self-controlled case series study using administrative data

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy for patients undergoing cancer treatment carries a risk of severe immune-related adverse events (IRAEs). Questions remain about whether seasonal influenza vaccination might increase the risk of developing IRAEs among these patients given that vaccines are immunomodulatory. Previous vaccine safety studies on patients with cancer prescribed ICI therapy have demonstrated conflicting results.

METHODS

Using health administrative data from Ontario, Canada among adults diagnosed with cancer who had been prescribed ICI therapy and who had received an influenza vaccine from 2012 to 2019, we conducted a self-controlled case series study. The pre-vaccination control period started 42-days post-ICI initiation until 14-days prior to vaccination, the risk period was 1-42 days post-vaccination, and the post-vaccination control period was after the risk period until ICI discontinuation or a maximum period of two years. Emergency department (ED) visit(s) and/or hospitalization for any cause after ICI initiation was used to identify severe IRAEs. We fitted a fixed-effects Poisson regression model accounting for seasonality and calendar time to estimate relative incidence of IRAEs between risk and control periods.

RESULTS

We identified 1133 records of cancer patients who received influenza vaccination while prescribed ICI therapy. Most were aged ≥ 66 years (73 %), were male (63 %), had lung cancer (54 %), and had received ICI therapy with a programmed cell death protein 1(PD-1) inhibitor (91 %). A quarter (26 %) experienced an ED visit and/or hospitalization during the observation period. Rates of ED visits and/or hospitalizations in the risk vs. control periods were similar, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.04 (95 % CI: 0.75-1.45). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses yielded similar results.

CONCLUSION

Seasonal influenza vaccination was not associated with an increased incidence of ED visit or hospitalization among adults with cancer treated with ICI therapy and our results support further evidence of vaccine safety.

Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study

BACKGROUND

Although previous studies found no-increased mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination, residual confounding bias might have impacted the findings. Using a modified self-controlled case series (SCCS) design, we assessed the risk of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes after primary series COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

We analyzed all deaths between December 14, 2020, and August 11, 2021, among individuals from eight Vaccine Safety Datalink sites. Demographic characteristics of deaths in recipients of COVID-19 vaccines and unvaccinated individuals were reported. We conducted SCCS analyses by vaccine type and death outcomes and reported relative incidences (RI). The observation period for death spanned from the dates of emergency use authorization to the end of the study period (August 11, 2021) without censoring the observation period upon death. We pre-specified a primary risk interval of 28-day and a secondary risk interval of 14-day after each vaccination dose. Adjusting for seasonality in mortality analyses is crucial because death rates vary over time. Deaths among unvaccinated individuals were included in SCCS analyses to account for seasonality by incorporating calendar month in the models.

RESULTS

For Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), RIs of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes were below 1 and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) excluded 1 across both doses and both risk intervals. For Moderna (mRNA-1273), RI point estimates of all outcomes were below 1, although the 95 % CIs of two RI estimates included 1: cardiac-related (RI = 0.78, 95 % CI, 0.58-1.04) and non-COVID-19 cardiac-related mortality (RI = 0.80, 95 % CI, 0.60-1.08) 14 days after the second dose in individuals without pre-existing cancer and heart disease. For Janssen (Ad26.COV2.S), RIs of four cardiac-related death outcomes ranged from 0.94 to 0.98 for the 14-day risk interval, and 0.68 to 0.72 for the 28-day risk interval and 95 % CIs included 1.

CONCLUSION

Using a modified SCCS design and adjusting for temporal trends, no-increased risk was found for non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes among recipients of the three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US.

CDC COVID-19 Vaccine Pregnancy Registry: Design, data collection, response rates, and cohort description

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed and implemented the CDC COVID-19 Vaccine Pregnancy Registry (C19VPR) to monitor vaccine safety. Potential participants who received a COVID-19 vaccine in pregnancy or up to 30 days prior to their pregnancy-associated last menstrual period were eligible to participate in the registry, which monitored health outcomes of participants and their infants through phone interviews and review of available medical records. Data for select outcomes, including birth defects, were reviewed by clinicians. In certain cases, medical records were used to confirm and add detail to participant-reported health conditions. This paper serves as a description of CDC C19VPR protocol. We describe the development and implementation for each data collection aspect of the registry (i.e., participant phone interviews, clinical review, and medical record abstraction), data management, and strengths and limitations. We also describe the demographics and vaccinations received among eligible and enrolled participants. There were 123,609 potential participants 18-54 years of age identified from January 2021 through mid-June 2021; 23,339 were eligible and enrolled into the registry. Among these, 85.3 % consented to medical record review for themselves and/or their infants. Participants were majority non-Hispanic White (79.1 %), residents of urban areas (93.3 %), and 48.3 % were between 30 and 34 years of age. Most participants completed the primary series of vaccination by the end of pregnancy (89.7 %). Many participants were healthcare personnel (44.8 %), possibly due to the phased roll-out of the vaccination program. The registry continues to provide important information about the safety of COVID-19 vaccination among pregnant people, a population with higher risk of poor outcomes from COVID-19 who were not included in pre-authorization clinical trials. Lessons learned from the registry may guide development and implementation of future vaccine safety monitoring efforts for pregnant people and their infants.

Effect of colorectal cancer screening on colorectal cancer surgery outcomes: nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

National colorectal cancer screening commenced in Denmark in 2014. Little is known about the effects of organized colorectal cancer screening on intraoperative and postoperative events. The aim of this nationwide cohort study was to evaluate the difference in intraoperative and postoperative outcomes between patients with screen-detected colorectal cancer and non-screen-detected colorectal cancer within the first 90 days after surgery.

METHODS

National register data were collected for Danish residents diagnosed with colorectal cancer between January 2014 and March 2018. Outcomes for the two cohorts were reported as relative risk or weighted mean difference. Intraoperative outcomes were blood loss, blood transfusion, tumour perforation, and organ lesion. Postoperative outcomes were complications (surgical and non-surgical) and 90-day mortality. Discrete data estimates were calculated from a general linear model. Analyses were adjusted for potential healthy user bias with respect to sex, age, location of the cancer (colon/rectum), and Charlson co-morbidity index.

RESULTS

In total, 10 606 patients were included. Compared with patients in the non-screen-detected colorectal cancer group (4497 patients), patients in the screen-detected colorectal cancer group (6109 patients) had reduced intraoperative blood loss (-52 mL, 95% c.i. -67 to -37, P < 0.001), a shorter duration of hospitalization (-2.3 days, 95% c.i. -2.8 to -1.8, P < 0.001), and reduced rates of intraoperative organ lesion (0.76, 95% c.i. 0.59 to 0.99, P = 0.042), surgical complications (0.79, 95% c.i. 0.73 to 0.87, P < 0.001), non-surgical complications (0.68, 95% c.i. 0.60 to 0.78, P < 0.001), and 90-day mortality (0.29, 95% c.i. 0.21 to 0.39, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In comparison with non-screen-detected colorectal cancer, surgery for screen-detected colorectal cancer remains associated with improvement in several intraoperative and early postoperative outcomes after considering healthy user bias.

The importance of falsification endpoints in observational studies of vaccination to prevent severe disease: A critique of a harm-benefit analysis of BNT162b2 vaccination of 5- to 11-year-olds

We explore one systematic review and meta-analysis of both observational and randomized studies examining COVID-19 vaccines in 5- to 11-year-olds, which reported substantial benefits associated with vaccinating this age group. We discuss the limitations of the individual studies that were used to estimate vaccination benefits. The review included five observational studies that evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 severe disease or hospitalization. All five studies failed to adequately assess differences in underlying health between vaccination groups. In terms of vaccination harms, looking only at the randomized studies, a significantly higher odds of adverse events was identified among the vaccinated compared with the unvaccinated. Observational studies are at risk of overestimating the effectiveness of vaccines against severe disease if healthy vaccinee bias is present. Falsification endpoints can provide valuable information about underlying healthy vaccinee bias. Studies that have not adequately ruled out bias due to better health among the vaccinated or more vaccinated should be viewed as unreliable for estimating the VE of COVID-19 vaccination against severe disease and mortality. Existing systematic reviews that include observational studies of the COVID-19 vaccine in children may have overstated or falsely inferred vaccine benefits due to unidentified or undisclosed healthy vaccinee bias.

Treatment of patients with screen-detected colorectal cancer is less strenuous: a nationwide cohort study with long-term follow-up

OBJECTIVE

During the last two decades, organised colorectal cancer (CRC) screening has been widely implemented. It remains to be established if screen-detected CRC (SD-CRC) is associated with reduced long-term requirements for treatment as compared with patients with non-screen-detected CRC (NSD-CRC).

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This nationwide cohort study evaluated differences in treatment and healthcare contacts from the date of diagnosis to two years after comparing patients with SD-CRC and NSD-CRC. Data were collected from national healthcare registers, including patients aged 50-75 years and diagnosed with CRC between January 1st 2014 and March 31st 2018. Analyses were stratified into UICC stages and adjusted for sex, 5-year age groups, type of cancer (colonic/rectal), and Charlson comorbidity index score to address healthy user bias.

RESULTS

In total, 12,040 patients were included, 4708 with SD-CRC and 7332 with NSD-CRC. In patients with SD-CRC, the duration of hospitalisation and rate of emergency surgery were reduced by 38 % (relative risk [RR] = 0.62) and 66 % (RR = 0.34), respectively. Moreover, this group was characterised by a 75 % reduction in oncological outpatient visits (RR = 0.35) and a reduced number of treatments with chemotherapy (RR = 0.57) and radiotherapy (RR = 0.50). There were no significant differences between the two populations in the rates of metastasectomy and the number of contacts with primary healthcare providers.

CONCLUSION

Compared to patients with NSD-CRC, patients with SD-CRC experience less hospitalisation and treatment within the first two years after diagnosis.

Population-Based Study of Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors among Persons >50 Years of Age, Australia

Despite vaccination programs, pertussis has been poorly controlled, especially among older adults in Australia. This longitudinal, retrospective, observational study aimed to estimate the incidence and risk factors of pertussis among persons ≥50 years of age in Australia in the primary care setting, including those with underlying chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. We used the IQVIA general practitioner electronic medical record database to identify patients ≥50 years of age with a clinical diagnosis of pertussis during 2015-2019. Pertussis incidence rates ranged from 57.6 to 91.4 per 100,000 persons and were higher among women and highest in those 50-64 years of age. Patients with COPD or asthma had higher incidence rates and an increased risk for pertussis compared with the overall population ≥50 years of age. Our findings suggest that persons ≥50 years of age in Australia with COPD or asthma have a higher incidence of and risk for pertussis diagnosis.

Pooled rates and demographics of POTS following SARS-CoV-2 infection versus COVID-19 vaccination: Systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To address recent concerns of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) occurring after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus as of 1st June 2023. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of pooled POTS rate in SARS-CoV-2-infected and COVID-19-vaccinated groups from epidemiological studies, followed by subgroup analyses by characteristic. Meta-analysis of risk ratio was conducted to compare POTS rate in infected versus uninfected groups. Meta-analysis of demographics was also performed to compare cases of post-infection and post-vaccination POTS from case reports and series.

RESULTS

We estimated the pooled POTS rate of 107.75 (95 % CI: 9.73 to 273.52) and 3.94 (95 % CI: 0 to 16.39) cases per 10,000 (i.e., 1.08 % and 0.039 %) in infected and vaccinated individuals based on 5 and 2 studies, respectively. Meta-regression revealed age as a significant variable influencing 86.2 % variance of the pooled POTS rate in infected population (P < 0.05). Moreover, POTS was 2.12-fold more likely to occur in infected than uninfected individuals (RR = 2.12, 95 % CI: 1.71 to 2.62, P < 0.001). Meta-analyzed demographics for cases of post-infection (n = 43) and post-vaccination (n = 17) POTS found no significant differences in several variables between groups, except that the time from exposure to symptom onset was shorter for cases of post-vaccination POTS (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Although evidence is limited for post-vaccination POTS, our study showed that POTS occur more frequently following SARS-CoV-2 infection than COVID-19 vaccination.

Risk of Noninfectious Uveitis after Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in a United States Claims Database

PURPOSE

To assess noninfectious uveitis (NIU) risk after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in patients without a history of uveitis.

DESIGN

A retrospective matched cohort study and self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis using a longitudinal data asset with claims data from the OptumLabs Data Warehouse from December 11, 2020, through November 30, 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

The matched cohort analysis included patients continuously enrolled for 730 days before December 11, 2020, who received a COVID-19 vaccination during the study period. This COVID-19-vaccinated group was matched to a COVID-19-unvaccinated historical cohort enrolled in 2018 and 2019. The SCCS design included individuals from the vaccinated cohort who experienced an NIU event during the study period. Enrollees with a history of uveitis were excluded.

METHODS

Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models in the matched cohort design. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing NIU incidence in exposed risk periods after vaccination and unexposed control periods within individuals were calculated using conditional Poisson regression models in the SCCS design. Models were adjusted for age, recent receipt of non-COVID-19 vaccinations, corticosteroid or immunosuppressive use, and smoking history. Subgroup analyses were conducted by vaccination type and age group.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of NIU identified with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes.

RESULTS

The matched cohort analysis included 4 611 378 patients, with 2 305 689 per cohort. The adjusted HR comparing NIU incidence in the COVID-19-vaccinated and unvaccinated cohort was 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-1.10; P = 0.33). The SCCS analysis included 686 patients. The IRR comparing NIU risk after vaccination with risk during control intervals was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.89-1.23; P = 0.57). An increased risk was found in the subgroup aged 5 to 44 years (IRR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.04-1.87; P = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

The matched cohort and SCCS analyses did not detect increased NIU risk after COVID-19 vaccination overall in individuals without history of uveitis, providing reassurance about the vaccine's safety. The finding of increased risk in the youngest subgroup suggests heightened immune responses in younger individuals, warranting further investigation.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Background rates for severe cutaneous reactions in the US: Contextual support for safety assessment of COVID-19 vaccines and novel biologics

The global COVID-19 public health crisis has resulted in extraordinary collaboration to expeditiously develop vaccines and therapeutics. The safety of these biologics is closely monitored by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Novel products may have limited safety data, and although serious medical outcomes associated with vaccination are rare, knowledge of background incidence rates of medical conditions in the US population puts reported adverse events (AEs) in perspective for further study. Although relatively minor vaccination skin reactions are common, rare instances of severe delayed hypersensitivity reactions such as erythema multiforme (EM), Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS), toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), and SJS/TEN overlap syndrome may occur. To aid in the assessment of these events, we performed a literature search in PubMed and Web of Science on the background incidence of EM, SJS, SJS/TEN, and TEN in the US population and on published reports of these conditions occurring post-vaccination. The US background annual incidence rates per million individuals of all ages ranged from 5.3 to 63.0 for SJS, from 0.4 to 5.0 for TEN, and from 0.8 to 1.6 for SJS/TEN. Since these conditions may overlap, some studies reported rates for EM/SJS/TEN combined, however we did not find studies with exclusive EM incidence rates. The published literature, including studies of reports submitted to the FDA/CDC Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), describes post-vaccination EM, SJS, SJS/TEN and/or TEN as rare occurrences. The vaccines most frequently associated with these conditions were measles, mumps, and rubella; diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis; and varicella. The majority of VAERS reports of EM, SJS, SJS/TEN, or TEN occurred in children within 30 days of vaccination. This review summarizes background rates of these disorders in the general population and published AEs among vaccine recipients, to support safety surveillance of COVID-19 vaccines and other biologics.

Less Invasive Primary Treatment for Colorectal Cancer After Implementation of National Screening: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The effect of organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on type of primary treatment remains sparsely investigated. This study evaluated the difference in primary treatment strategy between patients diagnosed with screen-detected (SD-CRC) and non-screen-detected colorectal cancer (NSD-CRC) in a national CRC screening program.

METHODS

This was a retrospective national register-based cohort study. Data on patients aged between 50 and 75 years and diagnosed with SD-CRC or NSD-CRC were retrieved from the national colorectal cancer screening database and the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group database. Outcomes related to surgical invasiveness were compared between the two cohorts. Differences were expressed as relative risks using log-binomial generalized linear regression models. UICC stage IV specific outcomes were analyzed using the same method. All analyses were adjusted for sex, age, type of cancer (colonic/rectal), and Charlson comorbidity index.

RESULTS

The study included 4707 patients with SD-CRC and 7328 with NSD-CRC. Therapeutic flexible endoscopy (SD-CRC: n = 636 vs. NSD-CRC: n = 334, RR: 2.50, P < 0.001), (robotic-assisted) laparoscopic resection ((n = 616 vs. n = 773, RR: 1.27, P < 0.001), n = 2759 vs. n = 3471, RR: 1.11, P < 0.001), and radical resection (n = 3890 vs. n = 4834, RR: 1.02, P = 0.002) were significantly more frequent in the SD-CRC group. The rates of emergency priority (n = 32 vs. n = 562, RR: 0.09, P < 0.001), open surgery (n = 391 vs. n = 1410, RR: 0.53, P < 0.001), supplementary organ resection (n = 259 vs. n = 860, RR: 0.56, P < 0.001), and stoma formation (n = 526 vs. n = 1040, RR: 0.89, P = 0.007) were significantly lower in the SD-CRC group. The rate of patients undergoing surgery with UICC stage IV disease was significantly higher in the SD-CRC group (SD-CRC: n = 262, NSD-CRC: n = 994, RR: 1.43, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

SD-CRC remained associated with less invasive primary surgical treatment following adjustment for potential healthy user bias. UICC stage IV disease may be less advanced in patients with SD-CRC.

mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Before vs During Pregnancy and Omicron Infection Among Infants

Importance

Infants younger than 6 months are at risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data are lacking on the optimum timing for maternal vaccination and estimated effectiveness against Omicron variants, including XBB, for infants.

Objective

To investigate maternal vaccination against Omicron variants, including XBB, and the association of vaccination timing during pregnancy vs prior to pregnancy and risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants aged 6 months or younger.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Singapore's national dataset was used to study infants born at greater than 32 weeks' gestation between January 1, 2022, and September 30, 2022. The study included infants whose parents had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the date of birth up to 6 months of age. Of 21 609 infants born during this period, 7292 (33.7%) had at least 1 parent infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the age of 7 months. Statistical analysis was performed from April to July 2023.

Exposure

Infants' mothers were unvaccinated, vaccinated prior to pregnancy, or vaccinated with a messenger RNA (mRNA) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during pregnancy.

Main Outcome and Measure

Infants were considered infected if they had a positive polymerase chain reaction test.

Results

Among 7292 infants included in this study, 4522 (62.0%) had mothers who were Chinese, 527 (7.2%) had mothers who were Indian, 2007 (27.5%) had mothers who were Malay, and 236 (3.2%) had mothers who were other ethnicity; 6809 infants (93.4%) were born at full term, and 1272 infants (17.4%) were infected during the study period. There were 7120 infants (97.6%) born to mothers who had been fully vaccinated or boosted as of 14 days prior to delivery. The crude incidence rate was 174.3 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were unvaccinated, 122.2 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated before pregnancy, and 128.5 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated during pregnancy. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 41.5% (95% CI, 22.8% to 55.7%) among infants born to mothers vaccinated during pregnancy. Infants of mothers who received vaccination prior to pregnancy did not have a lower risk for infection (estimated VE, 15.4% [95% CI, -17.6% to 39.1%]). A lower risk for Omicron XBB infection was only observed among mothers vaccinated with the third (booster) dose antenatally (estimated VE, 76.7% [95% CI, 12.8% to 93.8%]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this population-based cohort study, maternal mRNA vaccination was associated with a lower risk of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants up to 6 months of age only if the vaccine was given during the antenatal period. These findings suggest that mRNA vaccination during pregnancy may be needed for lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among newborns.

Duration of protection of ancestral-strain monovalent vaccines and effectiveness of bivalent BA.1 boosters against COVID-19 hospitalisation in England: a test-negative case-control study

BACKGROUND

Bivalent BA.1 booster vaccines were offered to adults aged 50 years or older and clinically vulnerable people as part of the 2022 autumn COVID-19 booster vaccination programme in England. Previously, all adults in England had been offered a primary course consisting of two doses of either ChAdOx1-S or monovalent mRNA vaccine and an mRNA monovalent booster vaccine. We aimed to estimate the long-term duration of protection provided by monovalent COVID-19 vaccines, and the incremental vaccine effectiveness of bivalent BA.1 boosters.

METHODS

In this test-negative case-control study, cases of COVID-19 and controls aged 18 years or older were identified from national data for PCR tests done in hospital settings in England. Our analysis was restricted to people with acute respiratory infections coded in the primary diagnosis field. Data for vaccination status were extracted from the English national vaccine register and linked to COVID-19 testing data. Between June 13 and Dec 25, 2022, we estimated the vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of two or three or more doses of monovalent COVID-19 vaccines compared with being unvaccinated, stratified by age (18-64 years vs ≥65 years). Between Sept 5, 2022, and Feb 5, 2023, we estimated the incremental vaccine effectiveness (ie, in addition to the protection from earlier vaccines) of receiving a bivalent BA.1 booster vaccine in addition to at least two doses of a monovalent vaccine (when the last dose was at least 6 months ago) among people aged 50 years or older. Analyses were adjusted for week of test, gender, age, COVID-19 risk group, residing in a care home, being a health or social care worker, Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile, ethnicity, and recent COVID-19 positivity.

FINDINGS

Our analysis of monovalent COVID-19 vaccines included 19 841 cases and 43 410 controls. Absolute vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation among people who had received at least three doses plateaued from 6 months after the last dose at around 50% in those aged 65 years or older and at around 30% in those aged 18-64 years. Our analyses of the effectiveness of bivalent BA.1 boosters included data for 9954 cases and 39 108 controls aged 50 years or older. Incremental vaccine effectiveness peaked at 53·0% (95% CI 47·9-57·5) 2-4 weeks after administration, before waning to 35·9% (31·4-40·1) after 10 or more weeks.

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides evidence that monovalent COVID-19 vaccines offer moderate long-term protection against hospitalisation in people aged 65 years or older and that the bivalent BA.1 booster vaccines were effective in preventing hospitalisation among people aged 50 years or older at a time when omicron lineages were circulating in England.

FUNDING

None.

Risk of Worsening Heart Failure and All-Cause Mortality Following COVID-19 Vaccination in Patients With Heart Failure: A Nationwide Real-World Safety Study

BACKGROUND

Patients with heart failure are vulnerable to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, limited evidence exists on the safety of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in this patient population. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of all-cause mortality, worsening heart failure, venous thromboembolism, and myocarditis associated with the mRNA vaccines in patients with heart failure.

METHODS

Using Danish nationwide registries, 2 cohorts were constructed: (1) all prevalent heart failure patients in 2019 aged 40 to 95 years and (2) all prevalent heart failure patients in 2021 aged 40 to 95 years, who were vaccinated with either of the 2 mRNA vaccines (BNT162B2 or mRNA-1273). The patients in the 2 cohorts were matched 1:1 using exact exposure matching on age, sex, and duration of heart failure. To estimate standardized absolute risks, outcome-specific Cox regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The total study population comprised 101 786 patients. The median age of the study population was 74 years (interquartile range, 66-81). The standardized risk of all-cause mortality within 90 days was 2.23% (95% CI, 2.10%-2.36%) in the vaccinated cohort and 2.56% (95% CI, 2.43%-2.70%) in the unvaccinated cohort (90-day risk difference, -0.33% [95% CI, -0.52% to -0.15%]). The standardized risk of worsening heart failure within 90 days was 1.10% (95% CI, -1.01% to 1.19%) in the 2021 (vaccinated) cohort and 1.08% (95% CI, 0.99%-1.17%) in the 2019 (unvaccinated) cohort (risk difference, 0.02% [95% CI, -0.11% to 0.15%]). No significant differences were found regarding venous thromboembolism or myocarditis.

CONCLUSIONS

Receiving an mRNA vaccine was not associated with an increased risk of worsening heart failure, myocarditis, venous thromboembolism, or all-cause mortality.

A cross-sectional study from Qatar on the effect of influenza vaccination on the severity of COVID-19

To assess and compare the severity of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in patients with and without a history of influenza vaccination. In this cross-sectional study descriptive statistics were used to analyze COVID-19-related parameters, including demographics, comorbidities, and severity. Normally distributed data with mean, standard deviation, and 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported, while non-normally distributed data was presented with median and inter-quartile range. Categorical data was summarized using frequencies and percentages. Associations were assessed using Pearson Chi-square, Fisher Exact, t test, or Mann-Whitney U test. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to evaluate the relationship between disease severity, clinical outcomes, influenza vaccination status, and other predictors. Significance was considered for p values < 0.05. Statistical analyses were done using SPSS V.27.0 (IBM Corp) and Epi Info (CDC) software. Between March 2020 and December 2020 before the availability of COVID-19 vaccination, 148,215 severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 positive patients were studied, with 3519 vaccinated against influenza, and 144,696 unvaccinated. After random sampling at 1:2 ratio, the final analysis included 3234 vaccinated and 5640 unvaccinated patients. The majority (95.4%) had mild or asymptomatic COVID-19, while 4.6% had severe or critical cases as defined by World Health Organization severity grading. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the vaccinated group had significantly less severe (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.683; 95% CI 0.513-0.911, P = .009) and critical (adjusted OR 0.345; 95% CI 0.145-0.822, P = .016) COVID-19 and were less likely to require oxygen therapy (adjusted OR 0.696; 95% CI 0.531-0.912, P = .009) after adjusting for confounders like age, gender and comorbidities. No significant differences in Intensive care unit admissions (adjusted OR 0.686; 95% CI 0.425-1.11, P = .122), mechanical ventilation (adjusted OR 0.631; 95% CI 0.308-1.295, P = .209) and mortality (adjusted OR 1.105; 95% CI 0.348-3.503, P = .866) were noted between the 2 groups. Influenza vaccination may significantly reduce the severity of COVID-19 but has no significant effect on intensive care unit admissions, mechanical ventilation and all- cause mortality.

The effect of herpes zoster vaccination on the occurrence of deaths due to dementia in England and Wales

Background

The United Kingdom (UK) has used date of birth-based eligibility rules for live-attenuated herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination that have led to large differences in HZ vaccination coverage between individuals who differed in their age by merely a few days. Using this unique natural randomization, we have recently provided evidence from Welsh electronic health record data that HZ vaccination caused a reduction in new dementia diagnoses over a seven-year period. Based on this, we hypothesized that HZ vaccination may have slowed the dementia disease process more generally and, thus, already reduced deaths with dementia as their underlying cause even though the UK's HZ vaccination program commenced as recently as September 2013. Using country-wide death certificate data for England and Wales, this study, therefore, aimed to determine whether eligibility for HZ vaccination caused a reduction in deaths due to dementia over a nine-year follow-up period.

Methods

Adults who had their 80th birthday shortly before September 1 2013 were ineligible for HZ vaccination in the UK's National Health Service and remained ineligible for life, whereas those who had their 80th birthday shortly after September 1 2013 (i.e., born on or after September 2 1933) were eligible for one year. Akin to a randomized trial, this date-of-birth threshold generated birth cohorts who are likely exchangeable in observed and unobserved characteristics except for a small difference in age and a large difference in HZ vaccination uptake. We used country-wide data from death certificates in England and Wales on underlying causes of death from September 1 2004 to August 31 2022 by ICD-10 code and month of birth. Our analysis compared the percentage of the population with a death due to dementia among the month-of-birth cohorts around the September 2 1933 eligibility threshold using a regression discontinuity design. The primary analyses used the maximal available follow-up period of nine years.

Results

The study population included 5,077,426 adults born between September 1 1925 and August 31 1941 who were alive at the start of the HZ vaccination program. The month-of-birth cohorts around the September 2 1933 eligibility cutoff were well balanced in their occurrence of all-cause and cause-specific deaths (including deaths due to dementia) prior to the start of the vaccination program. We estimated that over a nine-year follow-up period, eligibility for HZ vaccination reduced the percentage of the population with a death due to dementia by 0.38 (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.68, p=0.012) percentage points, corresponding to a relative reduction of 4.8%. As in our prior analysis, this effect was stronger among women (-0.62 [95% CI: -1.06 to -0.19] percentage points, p=0.004) than among men (-0.11 [95% CI: -0.51 to 0.28] percentage points, p=0.574). The reduction in deaths due to dementia likely resulted in an increase in remaining life expectancy because we found that HZ vaccination eligibility reduced all-cause mortality but had no effect on deaths not due to dementia. An effect on deaths due to dementia at the September 2 date-of-birth eligibility threshold existed only since the year in which the HZ vaccination program was implemented.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that HZ vaccination improved cognitive function at a fairly advanced stage of the dementia disease process because most individuals whose underlying cause of death was dementia during our nine-year follow-up period were likely already living with dementia at the start of the HZ vaccination program. By using a different population, type of data, and outcome than our prior study in Welsh electronic health record data, this analysis adds to the evidence base that HZ vaccination slows, or potentially even prevents, the natural history of dementia.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination and booster on maternal-fetal outcomes: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 in pregnant people increases the risk for poor maternal-fetal outcomes. However, COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy remains due to concerns over the vaccine's potential effects on maternal-fetal outcomes. Here we examine the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and boosters on maternal SARS-CoV-2 infections and birth outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective multicentre cohort study on the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on maternal-fetal outcomes for people who delivered (n=106 428) at Providence St Joseph Health across seven western US states from Jan 26, 2021 to Oct 26, 2022. Cohorts were defined by vaccination status at delivery: vaccinated (n=35 926; two or more doses of mRNA-1273 Moderna or BNT162b2 Pfizer-BioNTech), unvaccinated (n=55 878), unvaccinated propensity score matched (n=16 771), boosted (n=10 927; three or more doses), vaccinated unboosted (n=13 243; two doses only), and vaccinated unboosted with propensity score matching (n=4414). We built supervised machine learning classification models, which we used to determine which people were more likely to be vaccinated or boosted at delivery. The primary outcome was maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-19 vaccination status at delivery, COVID-19-related health care, preterm birth, stillbirth, and very low birthweight were evaluated as secondary outcomes.

FINDINGS

Vaccinated people were more likely to conceive later in the pandemic, have commercial insurance, be older, live in areas with lower household composition vulnerability, and have a higher BMI than unvaccinated people. Boosted people were more likely to have more days since receiving the second COVID-19 vaccine dose, conceive earlier in the pandemic, have commercial insurance, be older, and live in areas with lower household composition vulnerability than vaccinated unboosted people. Vaccinated pregnant people had lower rates of COVID-19 during pregnancy (4·0%) compared with unvaccinated matched people (5·3%; p<0·0001). COVID-19 rates were even lower in boosted people (3·2%) compared with vaccinated unboosted matched people (5·6%; p<0·0001). Vaccinated people were also less likely to have a preterm birth (7·9%; p<0·0001), stillbirth (0·3%; p<0·0002), or very low birthweight neonate (1·0%; p<0·0001) compared with unvaccinated matched people (preterm birth 9·4%; stillbirth 0·6%; very low birthweight 1·5%). Boosted people were less likely to have a stillbirth (0·3%; p<0·025) and have no differences in rates of preterm birth (7·6%; p=0·090) or very low birthweight neonates (0·8%; p=0·092) compared with vaccinated unboosted matched people (stillbirth 0·5%; preterm birth 8·4%; very low birthweight 1·1%).

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 vaccination protects against adverse maternal-fetal outcomes, with booster doses conferring additional protection. Pregnant people should be high priority for vaccination and stay up to date with their COVID-19 vaccination schedule.

FUNDING

National Institute for Child Health & Human Development and the William O and K Carole Ellison Foundation.

Adverse Events Following the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) in Aotearoa New Zealand

INTRODUCTION

In February 2021, New Zealand began its largest ever immunisation programme with the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to understand the association between 12 adverse events of special interest (AESIs) and a primary dose of BNT162b2 in the New Zealand population aged ≥5 years from 19 February 2021 through 10 February 2022.

METHODS

Using national electronic health records, the observed rates of AESIs within a risk period (1-21 days) following vaccination were compared with the expected rates based on background data (2014-2019). Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated for each AESI with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using age group-specific background rates. The risk difference was calculated to estimate the excess or reduced number of events per 100,000 persons vaccinated in the risk period.

RESULTS

As of 10 February 2022, 4,277,163 first doses and 4,114,364 second doses of BNT162b2 had been administered to the eligible New Zealand population aged ≥5 years. The SIRs for 11 of the 12 selected AESIs were not statistically significantly increased post vaccination. The SIR (95% CI) for myo/pericarditis following the first dose was 2.3 (1.8-2.7), with a risk difference (95% CI) of 1.3 (0.9-1.8), per 100,000 persons vaccinated, and 4.0 (3.4-4.6), with a risk difference of 3.1 (2.5-3.7), per 100,000 persons vaccinated following the second dose. The highest SIR was 25.6 (15.5-37.5) in the 5-19 years age group, following the second dose of the vaccine, with an estimated five additional myo/pericarditis cases per 100,000 persons vaccinated. A statistically significant increased SIR of single organ cutaneous vasculitis (SOCV) was also observed following the first dose of BNT162b2 in the 20-39 years age group only.

CONCLUSIONS

A statistically significant association between BNT162b2 vaccination and myo/pericarditis was observed. This association has been confirmed internationally. BNT162b2 was not found to be associated with the other AESIs investigated, except for SOCV following the first dose of BNT162b2 in the 20-39 years age group only, providing reassurances around the safety of the vaccine.

[Once vaccinated, always vaccinated? A claims data analysis on repeated influenza vaccinations among individuals aged ≥ 60 years]

BACKGROUND

The Standing Committee on Vaccination recommends the seasonal influenza vaccination as a standard vaccination for individuals aged ≥ 60 years and as an indication vaccination independent of age. Empirical data on repeated vaccination are not available for Germany. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the frequency and influencing factors of repeated vaccinations.

METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal retrospective observational study with claims data from ≥ 60‑year-olds insured with the statutory health insurance AOK Plus in Thuringia between 2012 and 2018. The number of seasons with influenza vaccination was described and the association with various individual characteristics was analysed in a regression model.

RESULTS

Included were 103,163 individuals with at least one influenza vaccination in the 2014/2015 season, of whom 75.3% had been vaccinated in ≥ 6 of 7 seasons. We found repeated vaccinations more frequently among nursing home residents (rate ratio (RR) 1.27), individuals with increased health risk due to underlying diseases (RR 1.21) and higher age groups (vs. 60-69 years: RR 1.17-1.25). With each additional year of participating in a disease management program, the number of vaccinations increased (RR 1.03). Women (RR 0.91), individuals with nursing care level 1 (vs. no nursing care level: RR 0.90) and people with a comorbidity (vs. no comorbidity: RR 0.97) were less likely to receive repeated vaccinations.

DISCUSSION

A large proportion of individuals aged ≥ 60 years who have been vaccinated against influenza once is likely to repeatedly receive vaccinations. In accordance with vaccination recommendations, nursing home residents and in particular individuals with an increased health risk are vaccinated repeatedly. General practitioners play a central role: non-acute patient contacts should be used to offer vaccinations, especially to women and individuals in need of care who are living at home.

Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among patients with cardiovascular disease in Denmark, 2017-2019

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination protects against morbidity and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to describe influenza vaccine uptake in patients with CVD in a universal-access healthcare system.

METHODS

Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with prevalent CVD, defined as heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), or stroke during three consecutive influenza seasons (October-December 2017-2019). The outcome was relative frequency of influenza vaccination across strata of patient characteristics.

RESULTS

There was an average of 397 346 patients with CVD yearly during 2017-2019. Vaccine uptake was 45.6% for the whole population and ranged from 55.0% in AF to 61.8% in HF among patients aged ≥65 years. Among patients aged <65 years, uptake was 32.6% in HF, 19.0% in AF, 21.1% in IHD, and 18.3% in stroke. There was a lower uptake with decreasing age: 21.6% in HF, 5.5% in AF, 7.4% in IHD, and 6.3% in stroke among males aged <45 years, as opposed to 25.5% in HF, 11.5% in AF, 13.8% in IHD, and 12.1% in stroke for males aged 45-54 years. In the further stratified analyses, uptake ranged from a low of 2.5% for males <45 years with AF who were not vaccinated the previous season to a high of 87.0% for females ≥75 years with IHD who were vaccinated the previous season.

CONCLUSION

Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake is suboptimal among patients with CVD, even in a universal-access healthcare system with free-of-charge vaccinations. Vaccine uptake was particularly low among young patients.

COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Surveillance in Early Pregnancy in the United States: Design Factors Affecting the Association Between Vaccine and Spontaneous Abortion

In the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), we previously reported no association between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in early pregnancy and spontaneous abortion (SAB). The present study aims to understand how time since vaccine rollout or other methodological factors could affect results. Using a case-control design and generalized estimating equations, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) of COVID-19 vaccination in the 28 days before a SAB or last date of the surveillance period (index date) in ongoing pregnancies and occurrence of SAB, across cumulative 4-week periods from December 2020 through June 2021. Using data from a single site, we evaluated alternative methodological approaches: increasing the exposure window to 42 days, modifying the index date from the last day to the midpoint of the surveillance period, and constructing a cohort design with a time-dependent exposure model. A protective effect (OR = 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.69, 0.89), observed with 3-cumulative periods ending March 8, 2021, was attenuated when surveillance extended to June 28, 2021 (OR = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.08). We observed a lower OR for a 42-day window compared with a 28-day window. The time-dependent model showed no association. Timing of the surveillance appears to be an important factor affecting the observed vaccine-SAB association.

Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in mRNA COVID-19-vaccinated and unvaccinated populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To summarise the available evidence on the risk of myocarditis and/or pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, compared with the risk among unvaccinated individuals in the absence of COVID-19 infection.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science and WHO Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease), preprint repositories (medRxiv and bioRxiv), reference lists and grey literature were searched from 1 December 2020 until 31 October 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Epidemiological studies of individuals of any age who received at least one dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, reported a risk of myo/pericarditis and compared the risk of myo/pericarditis to individuals who did not receive any dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers independently conducted screening and data extraction. The rate of myo/pericarditis among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups was recorded, and the rate ratios were calculated. Additionally, the total number of individuals, case ascertainment criteria, percentage of males and history of SARS-CoV-2 infection were extracted for each study. Meta-analysis was done using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Seven studies met the inclusion criteria, of which six were included in the quantitative synthesis. Our meta-analysis indicates that within 30-day follow-up period, vaccinated individuals were twice as likely to develop myo/pericarditis in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to unvaccinated individuals, with a rate ratio of 2.05 (95% CI 1.49-2.82).

CONCLUSION

Although the absolute number of observed myo/pericarditis cases remains quite low, a higher risk was detected in those who received mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations compared with unvaccinated individuals in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in preventing severe illnesses, hospitalisations and deaths, future research should focus on accurately determining the rates of myo/pericarditis linked to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, understanding the biological mechanisms behind these rare cardiac events and identifying those most at risk.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on mortality by COVID-19 and on mortality by other causes, the Netherlands, January 2021-January 2022

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 mortality, and to explore whether an increased risk of non-COVID-19 mortality exists in the weeks following a COVID-19 vaccine dose.

METHODS

National registries of causes of death, COVID-19 vaccination, specialized health care and long-term care reimbursements were linked by a unique person identifier using data from 1 January 2021 to 31 January 2022. We used Cox regression with calendar time as underlying time scale to, firstly, estimate VE against COVID-19 mortality after primary and first booster vaccination, per month since vaccination and, secondly, estimate risk of non-COVID-19 mortality in the 5 or 8 weeks following a first, second or first booster dose, adjusting for birth year, sex, medical risk group and country of origin.

RESULTS

VE against COVID-19 mortality was > 90 % for all age groups two months after completion of the primary series. VE gradually decreased thereafter, to around 80 % at 7-8 months post-primary series for most groups, and around 60 % for elderly receiving a high level of long-term care and for people aged 90+ years. Following a first booster dose, the VE increased to > 85 % in all groups. The risk of non-COVID-19 mortality was lower or similar in the 5 or 8 weeks following a first dose compared to no vaccination, as well as following a second dose compared to one dose and a booster compared to two doses, for all age and long-term care groups.

CONCLUSION

At the population level, COVID-19 vaccination greatly reduced the risk of COVID-19 mortality and no increased risk of death from other causes was observed.

Third dose mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 reduces medical complaints seen in primary care: a matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination has been associated with both side effects and a reduction in COVID-related complaints due to the decrease in COVID-19 incidence. We aimed to investigate if individuals who received three doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines had a lower incidence of (a) medical complaints and (b) COVID-19-related medical complaints, both as seen in primary care, when compared to individuals who received two doses.

METHODS

We conducted a daily longitudinal exact one-to-one matching study based on a set of covariates. We obtained a matched sample of 315,650 individuals aged 18-70 years who received the 3rd dose at 20-30 weeks after the 2nd dose and an equally large control group who did not. Outcome variables were diagnostic codes as reported by general practitioners or emergency wards, both alone and in combination with diagnostic codes of confirmed COVID-19. For each outcome, we estimated cumulative incidence functions with hospitalization and death as competing events.

RESULTS

We found that the number of medical complaints was lower in individuals aged 18-44 years who received three doses compared to those who received two doses. The differences in estimates per 100,000 vaccinated were as follows: fatigue 458 less (95% confidence interval: 355-539), musculoskeletal pain 171 less (48-292), cough 118 less (65-173), heart palpitations 57 less (22-98), shortness of breath 118 less (81-149), and brain fog 31 less (8-55). We also found a lower number of COVID-19-related medical complaints: per 100,000 individuals aged 18-44 years vaccinated with three doses, there were 102 (76-125) fewer individuals with fatigue, 32 (18-45) fewer with musculoskeletal pain, 30 (14-45) fewer with cough, and 36 (22-48) fewer with shortness of breath. There were no or fewer differences in heart palpitations (8 (1-16)) or brain fog (0 (- 1-8)). We observed similar results, though more uncertain, for individuals aged 45-70 years, both for medical complaints and for medical complaints that were COVID-19 related.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that a 3rd dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine administered 20-30 weeks after the 2nd dose may reduce the incidence of medical complaints. It may also reduce the COVID-19-related burden on primary healthcare services.

Risk of death following COVID-19 vaccination or positive SARS-CoV-2 test in young people in England

Several studies have reported associations between COVID-19 vaccination and risk of cardiac diseases, especially in young people; the impact on mortality, however, remains unclear. We use national, linked electronic health data in England to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and positive SARS-CoV-2 tests on the risk of cardiac and all-cause mortality in young people (12 to 29 years) using a self-controlled case series design. Here, we show there is no significant increase in cardiac or all-cause mortality in the 12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccination compared to more than 12 weeks after any dose. However, we find an increase in cardiac death in women after a first dose of non mRNA vaccines. A positive SARS-CoV-2 test is associated with increased cardiac and all-cause mortality among people vaccinated or unvaccinated at time of testing.

Primary prevention of acute cardiovascular events by influenza vaccination: an observational study

AIMS

Previous studies show a reduced incidence of first myocardial infarction and stroke 1-3 months after influenza vaccination, but it is unclear how underlying cardiovascular risk impacts the association.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data from England between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2019. From the data, individuals aged 40-84 years with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccination occurring within 12 months of each September were selected. Using a self-controlled case series analysis, season-adjusted cardiovascular risk stratified incidence ratios (IRs) for cardiovascular events after vaccination compared with baseline time before and >120 days after vaccination were generated. 193 900 individuals with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccine were included. 105 539 had hypertension and 172 050 had a QRISK2 score ≥10%. In main analysis, acute cardiovascular event risk was reduced in the 15-28 days after vaccination [IR 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74)] and, while the effect size tapered, remained reduced to 91-120 days after vaccination [0.83 (0.81-0.88)]. Reduced cardiovascular events were seen after vaccination among individuals of all age groups and with raised and low cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccine may offer cardiovascular benefit among individuals at varying cardiovascular risk. Further studies are needed to characterize the populations who could derive the most cardiovascular benefits from vaccination.

Cohort Profile: Childhood morbidity and potential non-specific effects of the childhood vaccination programmes in the Nordic countries (NONSEnse): register-based cohort of children born 1990-2017/2018

PURPOSE

The aim of the NONSEnse project is to investigate the non-specific effects of vaccines and immunisation programmes on the overall health of children by using information from the extensive nationwide registers on health and sociodemographic factors in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

The cohort covers 9 072 420 children aged 0-17 years, born 1990-2017/2018 and living in Denmark, Finland, Norway or Sweden. All countries use a unique identification number for its permanent residents, which makes it possible to link individual-level information from different registers.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Data collection and harmonisation according to a common data model was completed in March 2022. As a prerequisite for comparing the effects of childhood vaccinations on the overall health of children across the Nordic countries, we have identified indicators measuring similar levels of infectious disease morbidity across these settings. So far, studies pertaining to non-specific effects of vaccines are limited to investigations that could be undertaken using aggregated data sets that were available before the NONSEnse cohort with individual-level information was completely set up.

FUTURE PLANS

We are currently performing several studies of the effects on non-targeted infectious disease morbidity across the countries following vaccination against measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, human papillomavirus, rotavirus and influenza. Multiple studies are planned within the next years using different study designs to facilitate triangulation of results and enhance causal inference.

REGISTRATION

No clinical trials will be conducted within the NONSEnse project.

Thrombotic events following the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) in Aotearoa New Zealand: A self-controlled case series study

BACKGROUND

An association between thrombotic events and SARS-CoV-2 infection and the adenovirus-based COVID-19 vaccines has been established, leading to concern over the risk of thrombosis after BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the risk of arterial thrombosis, cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT), splanchnic thrombosis, and venous thromboembolism (VTE) following BNT162b2 vaccination in New Zealand.

METHODS

This was a self-controlled case series using national hospitalisation and immunisation records to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR). The study population included individuals aged ≥12 years, unvaccinated, or vaccinated with BNT162b2, who were hospitalised with one of the thrombotic events of interest from 19 February 2021 through 19 February 2022. The risk period was 0-21 days after receiving a primary or booster dose of BNT162b2.

RESULTS

6039 individuals were hospitalised with one of the thrombotic events examined, including 5127 with VTE, 605 with arterial thrombosis, 272 with splanchnic thrombosis, and 35 with CVT. The proportion of individuals vaccinated with at least one dose of BNT162b2 ranged from 82.7 % to 91.4 %. Compared with the control unexposed period, the IRR (95 % CI) of VTE, arterial thrombosis, splanchnic thrombosis, and CVT were 0.87 (0.76-1.00), 0.73 (0.56-0.95), 0.71 (0.43-1.16), and 0.87 (0.31-2.50) in the 21 days after BNT162b2 vaccination, respectively. There was no statistically significant increased risk of thrombosis following BNT162b2 in different ethnic groups in New Zealand.

CONCLUSION

The BNT162b2 vaccine was not found to be associated with thrombosis in the general population or different ethnic groups in New Zealand, providing reassurance for the safety of the BNT162b2 vaccine.

A Pragmatic Randomized Feasibility Trial of Influenza Vaccines

BACKGROUND: The relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV-HD) versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV-SD) against hospitalizations and mortality in the general older population has not been evaluated in an individually randomized trial. Because of the large sample size required, such a trial will need to incorporate innovative, pragmatic elements. METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic, open-label, active-controlled, randomized feasibility trial in Danish citizens aged 65 to 79 years during the 2021–2022 influenza season. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive QIV-HD or QIV-SD. Randomization was integrated into routine vaccination practice, and the trial relied solely on nationwide administrative health registries for data collection. Outcomes consisted of a feasibility assessment and descriptive rVE estimates. RESULTS: We invited 34,000 persons to participate. A total of 12,477 randomly assigned participants were included in the final analyses. Mean (±SD) age was 71.7±3.9 years, and 5877 (47.1%) were women. Registry-based data collection was feasible, with complete follow-up data for 99.9% of participants. Baseline characteristics were comparable to those of the overall Danish population aged 65 to 79 years. The incidence of hospitalization for influenza or pneumonia was 10 (0.2%) of 6245 in the QIV-HD group and 28 (0.4%) of 6232 in the QIV-SD group (rVE, 64.4%; 95% confidence interval, 24.4 to 84.6). All-cause death occurred in 21 (0.3%) and 41 (0.7%) participants in the QIV-HD and QIV-SD groups, respectively (rVE, 48.9%; 95% confidence interval, 11.5 to 71.3). CONCLUSIONS: Conducting a pragmatic randomized trial of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD using existing infrastructure and registry-based data collection was feasible. The findings of lower incidence of hospitalization for influenza or pneumonia and all-cause mortality in the QIV-HD group compared with the QIV-SD group require replication in a future, fully powered trial. (Funded by Sanofi; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05048589.)

Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study

BackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3-7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28-1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.78).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.

Initial protection against SARS-CoV-2 omicron lineage infection in children and adolescents by BNT162b2 in Israel: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) two-dose vaccine regiment for children and the BNT162b2 third dose for adolescents were approved shortly before the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) outbreak in Israel. We aimed to estimate the effects of these vaccines on the rates of confirmed infection against the omicron variant in children and adolescents.

METHODS

In this observational cohort study, we extracted data for the omicron-dominated (sublineage BA.1) period. We compared rates of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between children aged 5-10 years 14-35 days after receiving the second vaccine dose with an internal control group of children 3-7 days after receiving the first dose (when the vaccine is not yet effective). Similarly, we compared confirmed infection rates in adolescents aged 12-15 years 14-60 days after receiving a booster dose with an internal control group of adolescents 3-7 days after receiving the booster dose. We used Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status, calendar week, and exposure.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 26, 2021, and Jan 8, 2022, we included 1 158 289 participants. In children aged 5-10 years, the adjusted rate of confirmed infection was 2·3 times (95% CI 2·0-2·5) lower in children who received a second dose than in the internal control group. The adjusted infection rate in children who received a second dose was 102 infections per 100 000 risk-days (94-110) compared with 231 infections per 100 000 risk-days (215-248) in the corresponding internal control cohort. In adolescents aged 12-15 years, the booster dose decreased confirmed infection rates by 3·3 times (2·8-4·0) compared with in the internal control group. The adjusted infection rate of the booster cohort was 70 per 100 000 risk-days (60-81) compared with 232 per 100 000 risk-days (212-254) in the internal control cohort.

INTERPRETATION

A recent two-dose vaccination regimen with BNT162b2 and a recent booster dose in adolescents substantially reduced the rate of confirmed infection compared with the internal control groups. Future studies are needed to assess the duration of this protection and protection against other outcomes such as paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 and long-COVID.

FUNDING

None.

Effectiveness of the Booster of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine among Japanese Adolescents: A Cohort Study

Vaccination is effective in preventing COVID-19-related hospitalization among all age groups, but there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of the booster of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine among adolescents. We analyzed the data on the status of SARS-CoV-2 infection and their vaccination profiles in adolescents aged 13-18 years in Soma city (Fukushima, Japan) (n = 1835) from 14 May to 15 June 2022. The crude incidence rate and 95% confidence interval were calculated with the negative-binomial regression model after classifying the immunization status. The crude effectiveness of a booster administration to prevent infections was estimated as 86.4% (95% confidence interval: 57.2-95.7) when compared with the primary vaccination alone. The results of this study support that the community-based mass vaccination campaign of a booster dose among adolescents has additional protection from COVID-19 during the period of the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant wave.

Factors associated with pneumococcal vaccine uptake among vulnerable older adults in the United States primary care setting

Pneumococcal vaccine uptake targets set by Healthy People 2020 were not met by 2019 among vulnerable United States populations, yet research suggests progress can be made in primary care settings. This study assessed factors associated with having gotten a pneumococcal vaccine among vulnerable adults aged 50 and older. This study used the 2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey nationally representative dataset. Eligible individuals were aged 50-64 with an 'at risk' health condition or ≥65 years and had a primary care provider as their usual source of care (N = 3,760). Binary logistic regression was used to test factors (identified from literature) for a significant association with getting the pneumococcal vaccine. Factors with significant associations were entered into an adjusted multivariable logistic regression model to generate the odds of endorsing a factor given that the respondent got the vaccine. Collinearity among variables was examined with an unacceptable threshold of 0.8 correlation. A significance threshold of 0.05 was used. Those who got the pneumococcal vaccine had 16.7 (p < 0.001), 16.0 (p < 0.001) and 11.0 times (p < 0.001) higher odds of having also gotten the influenza vaccine, the herpes zoster vaccine and a colonoscopy respectively. They had 3.86 times (p = 0.009) higher odds of having diabetes mellitus, 0.036 times (p = 0.019) higher odds of having visited their doctors three times in 2018 and 8.4 times (p = 0.009) higher odds of having seen their doctor within the last year. Concordance statistic for model fit was 0.936. There was a negative association between pneumococcal vaccination and going to three doctor office visits in 2018 vs only once. The strongest positive associations were found between pneumococcal vaccination and getting the herpes zoster vaccine, influenza vaccine and getting a colonoscopy. These results suggest that those who choose to get the pneumococcal vaccine may have higher odds of also getting other vaccines or specific preventative screenings.

Reductions in stillbirths and preterm birth in COVID-19-vaccinated women: a multicenter cohort study of vaccination uptake and perinatal outcomes

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 infection in pregnancy is associated with a higher risk of progression to severe disease, but vaccine uptake by pregnant women is hindered by persistent safety concerns. COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to reduce stillbirth, but its relationship with preterm birth is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to measure the rate of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among women giving birth in Melbourne, Australia, and to compare perinatal outcomes by vaccination status.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted after the June 2021 government recommendations for messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy. Routinely collected data from all 12 public maternity hospitals in Melbourne were extracted on births at ≥20 weeks' gestation from July 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022. Maternal sociodemographic characteristics were analyzed from the total birth cohort. Perinatal outcomes were compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated women for whom weeks 20 to 43 of gestation fell entirely within the 9-month data collection period. The primary outcomes were the rates of stillbirth and preterm birth (spontaneous and iatrogenic) in singleton pregnancies of at least 24 weeks' gestation, after exclusion of congenital anomalies. Secondary perinatal outcomes included the rate of congenital anomalies among infants born at ≥20 weeks' gestation and birthweight ≤third centile and newborn intensive care unit admissions among infants born without congenital anomalies at ≥24 weeks' gestation. We calculated the adjusted odds ratio of perinatal outcomes among vaccinated vs unvaccinated women using inverse propensity score-weighting regression adjustment with multiple covariates; P<.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Births from 32,536 women were analyzed: 17,365 (53.4%) were vaccinated and 15,171 (47.6%) were unvaccinated. Vaccinated women were more likely to be older, nulliparous, nonsmoking, not requiring an interpreter, of higher socioeconomic status, and vaccinated against pertussis and influenza. Vaccination status also varied by region of birth. Vaccinated women had a significantly lower rate of stillbirth compared with unvaccinated women (0.2% vs 0.8%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.37; P<.001). Vaccination was associated with a significant reduction in total preterm births at <37 weeks (5.1% vs 9.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.71; P<.001), spontaneous preterm birth (2.4% vs 4.0%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.96; P=.02), and iatrogenic preterm birth (2.7% vs 5.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.65; P<.001). Infants born to vaccinated mothers also had lower rates of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit. There was no significant increase in the rate of congenital anomalies or birthweight ≤3rd centile in vaccinated women. Vaccinated women were significantly less likely to have an infant with a major congenital anomaly compared with the unvaccinated group (2.4% vs 3.0%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.94; P=.02). This finding remained significant even when the analysis was restricted to women vaccinated before 20 weeks' gestation.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy was associated with a reduction in stillbirth and preterm birth, and not associated with any adverse impact on fetal growth or development. Vaccine coverage was substantially influenced by known social determinants of health.