Health and economic impacts of eight different dietary salt reduction interventions

Dietary Salt-Related Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors of New Zealand Adults Aged 18-65 Years

OBJECTIVE

To explore dietary salt-related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of New Zealand (NZ) adults aged 18-65 years and assess differences by demographic subgroups.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional online survey conducted between June 1, 2018 and August 31, 2018.

SETTING

Participants were recruited in shopping malls, via social media, and a market research panel.

PARTICIPANTS

English-speaking adults residing in NZ.

VARIABLES MEASURED

An amended version of The Pan American and World Health Organization Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors standardized survey tool was used. Demographic data (age, sex, ethnicity, and educational attainment) were also collected.

ANALYSIS

Descriptive statistics reported. Chi-square test for independence to assess differences by demographics.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 1,131 adults (mean age 36 ± 15 years; n = 876 [78%] female; n = 661 [78%] NZ European/other; n = 210 [19%] Asian; n =164 [15%] Māori). In addition, 865 participants (83%) knew the primary dietary source of salt; 406 (40%) knew the recommended salt intake; 946 (95%) believed food manufacturers are responsible for sodium reduction; 563 (55%) supported government regulations; and 259 (26%) used food labels. Females and NZ European/other participants reported more favorable salt-reducing behaviors, such as avoiding fast-food and packaged, ready-to-eat foods (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Improving salt-related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors in NZ is particularly important for men, underserved populations, and adults aged 45-65 years. A multicomponent, national NZ salt reduction program based on research addressing engagement and effectiveness for at-risk groups is warranted.

Public health economic modelling in evaluations of salt and/or alcohol policies: a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND

Public health economic modelling is an approach capable of managing the intricacies involved in evaluating interventions without direct observational evidence. It is used to estimate potential long-term health benefits and cost outcomes. The aim of this review was to determine the scope of health economic models in the evaluation of salt and/or alcohol interventions globally, to provide an overview of the literature and the modelling methods and structures used.

METHODS

Searches were conducted in Medline, Embase, and EconLit, and complemented with citation searching of key reviews. The searches were conducted between 13/11/2022 and 8/11/2023, with no limits to publication date. We applied a health economic search filter to select model-based economic evaluations of public health policies and interventions related to alcohol consumption, dietary salt intake, or both. Data on the study characteristics, modelling approaches, and the interventions were extracted and synthesised.

RESULTS

The search identified 1,958 articles, 82 of which were included. These included comparative risk assessments (29%), multistate lifetables (27%), Markov cohort (22%), microsimulation (13%), and other (9%) modelling methods. The included studies evaluated alcohol and/or salt interventions in a combined total of 64 countries. Policies from the UK (23%) and Australia (18%) were the most frequently evaluated. A total of 58% of the models evaluated salt policies, 38% evaluated alcohol policies, and only three (4% of included modelling studies) evaluated both alcohol- and salt-related policies. The range of diseases modelled covered diabetes and cardiovascular disease-related outcomes, cancers, and alcohol-attributable harm. Systolic blood pressure was a key intermediate risk factor in the excessive salt-to-disease modelling pathway for 40 (83%) of the salt modelling studies. The effects of alcohol consumption on adverse health effects were modelled directly using estimates of the relative risk of alcohol-attributable diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review highlights the substantial utilisation of health economic modelling for estimating the health and economic impact of interventions targeting salt or alcohol consumption. The limited use of combined alcohol and salt policy models presents a pressing need for models that could explore their integrated risk factor pathways for cost-effectiveness comparisons between salt and alcohol policies to inform primary prevention policymaking.

Modelling impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, BMI and environmental footprints in the UK population

PURPOSE

Taxes on unhealthy foods can help improve population health in the United Kingdom (UK), but the health effects of food substitutions resulting from these taxes are often unclear. We investigated the potential impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, cost, body-mass index (BMI), and environmental footprints.

METHODS

Purchase panel data from Kantar (2017) were used to determine the most popular foods high in salt or sugar within eight 'salt-intensive'/'sugar-intensive' food categories. Within food categories, the most popular lower salt (≤ 1.5 g salt/100 g product) and lower sugar (≤ 22.5 g sugar/100 g product) substitutes were also identified. Hypothetical swaps between high salt/sugar foods and lower salt/sugar substitutes were explored, focusing on changes to cost, caloric intake and BMI, and environmental impacts in the UK population.

RESULTS

The suggested intra-category substitutions were largely like-for-like and did not accrue an added overall cost to consumers. The substitutions reduced calorie intake by about 200 kcal/day and lowered the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK from approximately 60-65% to about 40-45%. The proposed food substitutions led to a total reduction of -2.7Mt of greenhouse gases, ∼ -500.000 ha of land, -0.5km3 of blue water, -12km3 of scarcity weighted water, ∼ -12.000t of phosphorus, and nearly - 14.000t of sulphur dioxide over one year for the UK population due to reductions in calorie intake.

CONCLUSION

Food substitutions following a tax on salt and sugar could lead to significant benefits for health and the environment, without necessarily resulting in major changes to people's expenditure on familiar salty and sugary snacks.

The development of sodium reduction targets for New Zealand fast foods and a comparison with the current sodium contents of products

Sodium intake attributed to fast food is increasing globally. This research aims to develop maximum sodium reduction targets for New Zealand (NZ) fast foods and compare them with the current sodium content of products. Sodium content and serving size data were sourced from an existing database of major NZ fast-food chains. Target development followed a step-by-step process, informed by international targets and serving sizes, and previous methods for packaged supermarket foods. Sodium reduction targets were set per 100 g and serving, using a 40% reduction in the mean sodium content or the value met by 35-45% of products. Thirty-four per cent (1797/5246) of products in the database had sodium data available for target development. Sodium reduction targets were developed for 17 fast-food categories. Per 100 g targets ranged from 158 mg for 'Other salads' to 665 mg for 'Mayonnaise and dressings'. Per serving targets ranged from 118 mg for 'Sauce' to 1270 mg for 'Burgers with cured meat'. The largest difference between the current mean sodium content and corresponding target was for 'Other salads' and 'Grilled Chicken' (both -40% per 100g) and 'Fries and potato products' (-45% per serving), and the smallest, 'Pizza with cured meat toppings' (-3% per 100 g) and 'Pies, tarts, sausage rolls and quiches' (-4% per serving). The results indicate the display of nutrition information should be mandated and there is considerable room for sodium reduction in NZ fast foods. The methods described provide a model for other countries to develop country-specific, fast-food sodium reduction targets.

Economic effects of dietary salt reduction policies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Japan: a simulation study of hypothetical scenarios

Objective

Reducing dietary salt intake is an essential population strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but evidence on healthcare costs and outcomes is limited in Japan. We aimed to conduct a pilot economic evaluation under hypothetical scenarios of applying the salt reduction policies of England to Japan.

Methods

We examined salt reduction policies in England: media health promotion campaigns, front-of-pack labeling, and voluntary and mandatory reformulation with best-case and worst-case policy cost scenarios. We assumed that these policies were conducted in Japan for 10 years from 2019. We used published data on epidemiology and healthcare expenditures in Japan and the costs and effects of salt reduction policies in England, and defined the benefits as a decrease in national medical expenditures on CVD. We developed a Markov cohort simulation model of the Japanese population. To estimate the annual net benefits of each policy over 10 years, we subtracted monitoring and policy costs from the benefits. We adopted a health sector perspective and a 2% discount rate.

Results

The cumulative net benefit over 10 years was largest for mandatory reformulation (best case) at 2,015.1 million USD (with costs of USD 48.3 million and benefits of USD 2063.5 million), followed by voluntary reformulation (net benefit: USD 1,895.1 million, cost: USD 48.1 million, benefit: USD 1,943.2 million), mandatory reformulation (worst case, net benefit: USD 1,447.9 million, cost: USD 1,174.5 million, benefit: USD 2,622.3 million), labeling (net benefit: USD 159.5 million, cost: USD 91.6 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million), and a media campaign (net benefit: USD 140.5 million, cost: USD 110.5 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million). There was no change in the superiority or inferiority of policies when the uncertainty of model parameters was considered.

Conclusion

Mandatory reformulation with the best-case cost scenario might be economically preferable to the other alternatives in Japan. In future research, domestic data on costs and effects of salt reduction policies should be incorporated for model refinement.

The social cost of high sodium diet in Singapore

High sodium (Na) diet is one of the leading behavioural risks of disease identified in the Singapore Burden of Disease Study. We aim to estimate the cost attributable to a high Na diet in Singapore in 2019 from a societal perspective by employing a prevalence-based approach in cost-of-illness studies. We extracted national-level healthcare data and population attributable fractions by sex and age. Costs included direct and indirect costs from inpatient treatment and productivity losses. In 2019, the annual societal cost attributable to a high Na diet was conservatively estimated to be USA$262 million (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 218, 359 million). At least USA$67·8 million (95 % UI 48·4, 120 million) and USA$194 million (95 % UI 153, 274 million) could be saved on healthcare and indirect costs, respectively, if the daily Na intake of Singaporeans was reduced to an average of 3 g. Overall, males had higher costs compared with females at USA$221 million (95 % UI 174, 312 million) and USA$41·1 million (95 % UI 33·5, 61·7 million), respectively. Productivity loss from foregone wages due to premature mortality had the largest cost at USA$191 million (95 % UI 150, 271 million). CVD had the largest healthcare expenditure at USA$61·4 million (95 % UI 41·6, 113 million), driven by ischaemic heart disease at USA$41·0 million (95 % UI 21·4, 88·9 million). Our study found that reducing Na intake could reduce future healthcare expenditures and productivity losses. This result is vital for policy evaluation in a rapidly ageing society like Singapore, where the burden of diseases associated with high Na diet is expected to increase.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Estimation of the economic benefits for the public health system related to salt reduction in Costa Rica

Excessive salt and sodium intake are strongly associated with high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular disease. High blood pressure in turn is the main risk factor for the global burden of morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of this disease in the adult population of Costa Rica in 2018 was 37.2%. Costa Rica has limited information on the economic costs for the public health system and related of the prevalence of this type of disease mediated by dietary factors such as salt intake.

OBJECTIVE

to estimate the economic benefits for the public health system related to salt reduction in Costa Rica for the year 2018.

METHODOLOGY

estimation of the economic benefits for the public healthcare costs and productivity losses associated to reducing the per capita salt consumption of Costa Ricans to 5g/day, including the estimation of the Years of Life Productive Lost and of the direct costs on consultations, hospitalizations, and medications for the Costa Rica Social Security System.

RESULTS

The total annual costs of hospitalization, consultations, and medications attributable to excessive salt intake in the population older than 15 years of age for the year 2018, were estimated at USD $15.1 million. The highest were in hospitalizations (53%), followed by consultations and medications (32% and 15%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

NCDs caused by excessive salt intake represent important economic losses for the country, not only in terms of direct health costs, but also indirect due to the increase in years of potential life lost due to premature deaths because of CVD, which causes significant losses of human capital and, therefore, to the economy and the development of Costa Rica.

Examining the Individual Response to a Low-Sodium Diet in Patients with Hypertension: Protocol for a Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Excessive dietary sodium intake is an independent risk factor for hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite the large body of evidence concerning the effects of dietary interventions on blood pressure (BP) and CVD outcomes, trials have often reported low adherence to decreased sodium intake, likely due in part to heterogeneous BP responses. To address the challenges, recent clinical findings suggested a precise and personalized dietary approach that seeks to deliver more preventive and practical dietary advice than the "one-size-fits-all" guidelines and weighs the personal risk of developing specific diseases.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this pilot randomized controlled trial was to test the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of integrating the use of mobile technology and metabolomics with a low-sodium diet intervention in patients with hypertension to develop personalized low-sodium diet programs. Additionally, the study will examine the associations of urine metabolites with urinary sodium levels and BP control based on the hypothesis that targeted urine metabolites. In this report, we describe the design and protocol of the pilot trial.

METHODS

A total of 40 patients with hypertension will be randomly assigned to either a 8-week low-sodium diet group (n=20) or a standard care group (n=20). Each week, intervention participants went through individual sessions with an interventionist via videoconferencing to discuss low-sodium diet regimens, patients' food choices, and BP tracks on mobile apps. The control group followed their usual care for hypertension management. All participants in both groups monitored diet and BP using mobile apps for 8 weeks. A 24-hour urinary sodium excretion for the estimation of dietary sodium intake, systolic, and diastolic BPs were measured at the baseline and at 8 weeks. The primary outcomes of this study include the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) by reporting recruitment, retention, and completion statistics. The preliminary effects of intervention will be tested by a generalized estimating equation model.

RESULTS

This pilot RCT study was approved by the institutional review board at the University of Texas Health San Antonio in January 2021. The first participant was enrolled in April 2021, and currently, 26 participants were enrolled. All data collection is expected to conclude by March 2023, with data analysis and study results ready for reporting by December 2023. Findings from this pilot RCT will further guide the team in planning a future large-scale study.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this proposed study will establish a comprehensive knowledge base for future research and development of personalized dietary interventions to promote adherence to dietary strategies and self-management of chronic disease using the Precision Health approach for millions of Americans who are struggling with uncontrolled hypertension.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04764253; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04764253.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/39058.

Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data

AIM

We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings.

RESULTS

Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Māori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Reduction of Cardiovascular Events and Related Healthcare Expenditures through Achieving Population-Level Targets of Dietary Salt Intake in Japan: A Simulation Model Based on the National Health and Nutrition Survey

Reducing population dietary salt intake is expected to help prevent cardiovascular disease and thus constrain increasing national healthcare expenditures in Japan’s super-aged society. We aimed to estimate the impact of achieving global and national salt-reduction targets (8, <6, and <5 grams/day) on cardiovascular events and national healthcare spending in Japan. Using published data including mean salt intake and systolic blood pressure from the 2019 National Health and Nutrition Survey, we developed a Markov model of a closed cohort of adults aged 40−79 years in 2019 (n = 66,955,000) transitioning among six health states based on the disease course of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. If mean salt intake were to remain at 2019 levels over 10 years, cumulative incident cases in the cohort would be approximately 2.0 million for IHD and 2.6 million for stroke, costing USD 61.6 billion for IHD and USD 104.6 billion for stroke. Compared with the status quo, reducing mean salt intake towards the targets over 10 years would avert 1−3% of IHD and stroke events and save up to 2% of related national healthcare costs. Attaining dietary salt-reduction goals among adults would yield moderate health economic benefits in Japan.

Sodium and Health: Old Myths and a Controversy Based on Denial

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The scientific consensus on which global health organizations base public health policies is that high sodium intake increases blood pressure (BP) in a linear fashion contributing to cardiovascular disease (CVD). A moderate reduction in sodium intake to 2000 mg per day helps ensure that BP remains at a healthy level to reduce the burden of CVD.

RECENT FINDINGS

Yet, since as long ago as 1988, and more recently in eight articles published in the European Heart Journal in 2020 and 2021, some researchers have propagated a myth that reducing sodium does not consistently reduce CVD but rather that lower sodium might increase the risk of CVD. These claims are not well-founded and support some food and beverage industry's vested interests in the use of excessive amounts of salt to preserve food, enhance taste, and increase thirst. Nevertheless, some researchers, often with funding from the food industry, continue to publish such claims without addressing the numerous objections. This article analyzes the eight articles as a case study, summarizes misleading claims, their objections, and it offers possible reasons for such claims. Our study calls upon journal editors to ensure that unfounded claims about sodium intake be rigorously challenged by independent reviewers before publication; to avoid editorial writers who have been co-authors with the subject paper's authors; to require statements of conflict of interest; and to ensure that their pages are used only by those who seek to advance knowledge by engaging in the scientific method and its collegial pursuit. The public interest in the prevention and treatment of disease requires no less.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of the Sodium Reduction in Communities Program

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Sodium Reduction in Communities Program (SRCP).

DESIGN

We collected implementation costs and performance measure indicators from SRCP recipients and their partner food service organisations. We estimated the cost per person and per food service organisation reached and the cost per menu item impacted. We estimated the short-term effectiveness of SRCP in reducing sodium consumption and used it as an input in the Prevention Impact Simulation Model to project the long-term impact on medical cost savings and quality-adjusted life-years gained due to a reduction in CVD and estimate the cost-effectiveness of SRCP if sustained through 2025 and 2040.

SETTING

CDC funded eight recipients as part of the 2016-2021 round of the SRCP to work with food service organisations in eight settings to increase the availability and purchase of lower-sodium food options.

PARTICIPANTS

Eight SRCP recipients and twenty of their partners.

RESULTS

At the recipient level, average cost per person reached was $10, and average cost per food service organisation reached was $42 917. At the food service organisation level, median monthly cost per food item impacted by recipe modification or product substitution was $684. Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that, if sustained, the programme is cost saving (i.e. the reduction in medical costs is greater than the implementation costs) in the target population by $1·82 through 2025 and $2·09 through 2040.

CONCLUSIONS

By providing evidence of the cost-effectiveness of a real-world sodium reduction initiative, this study can help inform decisions by public health organisations about related CVD prevention interventions.

Implementing effective salt reduction programs and policies in low- and middle-income countries: learning from retrospective policy analysis in Argentina, Mongolia, South Africa and Vietnam

OBJECTIVE

To understand the factors influencing the implementation of salt reduction interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

DESIGN

Retrospective policy analysis based on desk reviews of existing reports and semi-structured stakeholder interviews in four countries, using Walt and Gilson's 'Health Policy Triangle' to assess the role of context, content, process and actors on the implementation of salt policy.

SETTING

Argentina, Mongolia, South Africa and Vietnam.

PARTICIPANTS

Representatives from government, non-government, health, research and food industry organisations with the potential to influence salt reduction programmes.

RESULTS

Global targets and regional consultations were viewed as important drivers of salt reduction interventions in Mongolia and Vietnam in contrast to local research and advocacy, and support from international experts, in Argentina and South Africa. All countries had population-level targets and written strategies with multiple interventions to reduce salt consumption. Engaging industry to reduce salt in foods was a priority in all countries: Mongolia and Vietnam were establishing voluntary programs, while Argentina and South Africa opted for legislation on salt levels in foods. Ministries of Health, the WHO and researchers were identified as critical players in all countries. Lack of funding and technical capacity/support, absence of reliable local data and changes in leadership were identified as barriers to effective implementation. No country had a comprehensive approach to surveillance or regulation for labelling, and mixed views were expressed about the potential benefits of low sodium salts.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective scale-up of salt reduction programs in LMIC requires: (1) reliable local data about the main sources of salt; (2) collaborative multi-sectoral implementation; (3) stronger government leadership and regulatory processes and (4) adequate resources for implementation and monitoring.

The Sweet and Salty Dietary Face of Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease in Lebanon

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 1.28 billion adults aged 30–79 years worldwide have hypertension; and every year, hypertension takes 7.6 million lives. High intakes of salt and sugar (mainly fructose from added sugars) have been linked to the etiology of hypertension, and this may be particularly true for countries undergoing the nutrition transition, such as Lebanon. Salt-induced hypertension and fructose-induced hypertension are manifested in different mechanisms, including Inflammation, aldosterone-mineralocorticoid receptor pathway, aldosterone independent mineralocorticoid receptor pathway, renin-angiotensin system (RAS), sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity, and genetic mechanisms. This review describes the evolution of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Lebanon and aims to elucidate potential mechanisms where salt and fructose work together to induce hypertension. These mechanisms increase salt absorption, decrease salt excretion, induce endogenous fructose production, activate fructose-insulin-salt interaction, and trigger oxidative stress, thus leading to hypertension. The review also provides an up-to-date appraisal of current intake levels of salt and fructose in Lebanon and their main food contributors. It identifies ongoing salt and sugar intake reduction strategies in Lebanon while acknowledging the country’s limited scope of regulation and legislation. Finally, the review concludes with proposed public health strategies and suggestions for future research, which can reduce the intake levels of salt and fructose levels and contribute to curbing the CVD epidemic in the country.

A Mobile Health Salt Reduction Intervention for People With Hypertension: Results of a Feasibility Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

A high-salt diet is a risk factor for hypertension and cardiovascular disease; therefore, reducing dietary salt intake is a key part of prevention strategies. There are few effective salt reduction interventions suitable for delivery in the primary care setting, where the majority of the management and diagnosis of hypertension occurs.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of a complex behavioral intervention to lower salt intake in people with elevated blood pressure and test the trial procedures for a randomized controlled trial to investigate the intervention's effectiveness.

METHODS

This feasibility study was an unblinded, randomized controlled trial of a mobile health intervention for salt reduction versus an advice leaflet (control). The intervention was developed using the Behavior Change Wheel and comprised individualized, brief advice from a health care professional with the use of the SaltSwap app. Participants with an elevated blood pressure recorded in the clinic were recruited through primary care practices in the United Kingdom. Primary outcomes assessed the feasibility of progression to a larger trial, including follow-up attendance, fidelity of intervention delivery, and app use. Secondary outcomes were objectively assessed using changes in salt intake (measured via 24-hour urine collection), salt content of purchased foods, and blood pressure. Qualitative outcomes were assessed using the think-aloud method, and the process outcomes were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 47 participants were randomized. All progression criteria were met: follow-up attendance (45/47, 96%), intervention fidelity (25/31, 81%), and app use (27/31, 87%). There was no evidence that the intervention significantly reduced the salt content of purchased foods, salt intake, or blood pressure; however, this feasibility study was not powered to detect changes in secondary outcomes. Process and qualitative outcomes demonstrated that the trial design was feasible and the intervention was acceptable to both individuals and practitioners and positively influenced salt intake behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

The intervention was acceptable and feasible to deliver within primary care; the trial procedures were practicable, and there was sufficient signal of potential efficacy to change salt intake. With some improvements to the intervention app, a larger trial to assess intervention effectiveness for reducing salt intake and blood pressure is warranted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 20910962; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN20910962.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

A Systematic Review of Salt Reduction Initiatives Around the World: A Midterm Evaluation of Progress Towards the 2025 Global Non-Communicable Diseases Salt Reduction Target

In 2013, the WHO recommended that all member states aim to reduce population salt intake by 30% by 2025. The year 2019 represents the midpoint, making it a critical time to assess countries' progress towards this target. This review aims to identify all national salt reduction initiatives around the world in 2019, and to quantify countries' progress in achieving the salt reduction target. Relevant data were identified through searches of peer-reviewed and gray literature, supplemented with responses from prefilled country questionnaires sent to known country leads of salt reduction or salt champions, WHO regional representatives, and international experts to request further information. Core characteristics of each country's strategy, including evaluations of program impact, were extracted and summarized. A total of 96 national salt reduction initiatives were identified, representing a 28% increase in the number reported in 2014. About 90% of the initiatives were multifaceted in approach, and 60% had a regulatory component. Approaches include interventions in settings (n= 74), food reformulation (n = 68), consumer education (n = 50), front-of-pack labeling (n = 48), and salt taxation (n = 5). Since 2014, there has been an increase in the number of countries implementing each of the approaches, except consumer education. Data on program impact were limited. There were 3 countries that reported a substantial decrease (>2 g/day), 9 that reported a moderate decrease (1-2 g/day), and 5 that reported a slight decrease (<1 g/day) in the mean salt intake over time, but none have yet met the targeted 30% relative reduction in salt intake from baseline. In summary, there has been an increase in the number of salt reduction initiatives around the world since 2014. More countries are now opting for structural or regulatory approaches. However, efforts must be urgently accelerated and replicated in other countries and more rigorous monitoring and evaluation of strategies is needed to achieve the salt reduction target.

Examining the Potential Effect of a Salt Sensitivity Biomarker in Korean American Immigrants: A Pilot Study

The genetic factors involved with salt sensitivity (SS) have been studied using a genetic approach to identify individuals at high risk for developing hypertension and could benefit from a low sodium diet intervention, but this has not been well-studied in Korean American immigrants (KAIs). The purpose of this pilot study was to investigate the influence of SS that moderates blood pressure (BP) in KAIs (n = 34). KAIs were recruited from local communities and completed a blood draw, a 8-day food log, and BP testing. The dietary sodium intake was measured using the Fitbit mobile app, and an SS biomarker was assessed using targeted genotyping. out of five GNAI2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tested, rs4547694 significantly moderated the relationship of dietary sodium intake on BP in KAIs. Conclusions: Further studies are warranted to test the effect of a reduced sodium diet on BP while accounting for the moderating influence of an SS genotype.

Salt Reduction Initiatives in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Evaluation of Progress towards the 2025 Global Target: A Systematic Review

This study aims at identifying national salt reduction initiatives in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region and describing their progress towards the global salt reduction target. A systematic review of published and grey literature was conducted. Key characteristics of strategies were extracted and classified according to a pre-defined framework: salt intake assessments; leadership and strategic approach; implementation strategies; monitoring and evaluation of program impact. Salt intake levels were estimated in 15 out of the 22 countries (68%), while national salt reduction initiatives were identified in 13 (59%). The majority of countries were found to implement multifaceted reduction interventions, characterized by a combination of two or more implementation strategies. The least common implementation strategy was taxation, while the most common was reformulation (100%), followed by consumer education (77%), initiatives in specific settings (54%), and front of pack labelling (46%). Monitoring activities were conducted by few countries (27%), while impact evaluations were lacking. Despite the ongoing salt reduction efforts in several countries of the region, more action is needed to initiate reduction programs in countries that are lagging behind, and to ensure rigorous implementation and evaluations of ongoing programs. Such efforts are vital for the achievement of the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake.

Protocol for the economic evaluation of the China Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS)

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce blood pressure and the burden of CVD. To date, economic evidence has focused on sodium reduction in food industry or processed food with blood pressure as the primary outcome. This study protocol describes the planned within-trial economic evaluation of a low-sodium salt substitute intervention designed to reduce the risk of stroke in China.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

The economic evaluation will be conducted alongside the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study: a 5-year large scale, cluster randomised controlled trial. The outcomes of interest are quality of life measured using the EuroQol-5-Dimensions and major adverse cardiovascular events. Costs will be estimated from a healthcare system perspective and will be sought from the routinely collected data available within the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses will be conducted, resulting in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per cardiovascular event averted and cost per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial received ethics approval from the University of Sydney Ethics Committee (2013/888) and Peking University Institutional Review Board (IRB00001052-13069). Informed consent was obtained from each study participant. Findings of the economic evaluation will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT02092090).

Strengthening Knowledge to Practice on Effective Salt Reduction Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The objective of this review was to consolidate available published information on the implementation and evaluation of salt reduction interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

RECENT FINDINGS

The Science of Salt database (made up of studies identified in a weekly Medline search) was used to retrieve articles related to the implementation of salt reduction interventions from June 2013 to February 2020. Studies that measured the effects of the interventions in LMICs, based on four outcome measures-salt intake; sodium levels in foods; knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours (KABs) towards salt; and blood pressure-were included. Results were summarised overall and according to subgroups of intervention type, duration, sample size, country's income class, and regional classification. The review identified 32 studies, representing 13 upper middle-income and four lower middle-income countries. The main salt reduction interventions were education, food reformulation, and salt substitution; and many interventions were multi-faceted. More studies reported a positive effect of the interventions (decreased salt intake (12/17); lower sodium levels in foods or compliance with agreed targets (6/6); improved KAB (17/19); and decreased blood pressure (10/14)) than a null effect, and no study reported a negative effect of the intervention. However, many studies were of small scale and targeted specific groups, and none was from low-income countries. Consumer education, food reformulation, and salt substitution, either alone or in combination, were effective in their target populations. Supporting scale-up of salt reduction interventions in LMICs is essential to cover broader populations and to increase their public health impact.

Potential impact of COVID-19 related unemployment on increased cardiovascular disease in a high-income country: Modeling health loss, cost and equity

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden.

AIMS

This modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

We adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury.

RESULTS

We estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Māori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Māori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m).

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.

Stakeholder perspectives on the effectiveness of the Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Interventions to reduce population salt intake are feasible and cost-effective. The Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership implemented a complex, multi-faceted salt reduction intervention between 2014 and 2020 in the Australian state of Victoria. This study aimed to understand stakeholder perspectives on the effectiveness of the Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with Partnership and food industry stakeholders. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research was adapted for the Partnership intervention and used to guide the qualitative analysis.

RESULTS

Fourteen Partnership and seven food industry stakeholders were interviewed. The Partnership was viewed as essential for intervention planning and decision-making and an enabler for intervention delivery. The goals of capacity building and collaborative action were perceived to have been achieved. The implementation team executed intended intervention activities and outputs, with some adaptations to strategy. Barriers and enablers to implementation were identified by interviewees, such as compatibility of individual, organisational and Partnership values and building positive relationships between the Partnership and food industry, respectively. Legal, political, social, environmental, technological and economic factors affecting intervention design, delivery and outcomes were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing a Partnership with diverse skills and experience facilitated collaborative action, capacity building and execution of the intervention. Monitoring and evaluating implementation informed strategy adaptations, which allowed optimisation of Partnership strategy. The importance of developing strong communication networks between strategic and implementation-levels was a key lesson.

Sodium intake, health implications, and the role of population-level strategies

Evidence to date suggests that high sodium intake affects health adversely, yet the role of a population-level strategy to reduce sodium intake is often contested. This review focuses on current available evidence on regional sodium intake levels, health implications of sodium intake, and population-level strategies implemented worldwide. The limitations in evidence, the difficulties in implementing population-wide strategies to reduce sodium intake, and the need for such strategies are critically reviewed. Evidence clearly shows that sodium has an adverse effect on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. However, whether reduced sodium intake benefits all individuals or only hypertensive individuals is still unclear. Methodological issues and publication bias in current evidence are other matters of concern in sodium-related research. While it is essential to continue working toward the World Health Organization's target of 30% reduction in sodium intake, due consideration should be given to improving the quality of research, reducing bias in publications, and reviewing evidence more critically.

Examining Equity Effects of Health Interventions in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to catalogue and describe published applications of equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis (CEAs).

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched Medline for English-language, peer-reviewed CEAs published on or before August 2019. We included CEAs that evaluated 2 or more alternatives; explicitly mentioned equity as a consideration or decision-making principle; and applied an equity-informative CEA method to analyze or examine at least 1 equity criterion in an applied CEA. We extracted data on selected characteristics and analyzed reporting quality using the CHEERS checklist.

RESULTS

Fifty-four articles identified through a search and bibliography reviews met the inclusion criteria. All articles were published on or after 2010, with 80% published after 2015. Most studies evaluated primary prevention interventions in disease areas such as cancer, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular disease. Equity impact analysis alone was the most common equity-informative CEA (56%), followed by equity impact analysis with financial protection effects (30%). At least 11 different equity criteria have been used in equity-informative CEAs; socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity were used most frequently. Seventy-eight percent of studies reported finding "greater value" in an intervention after examining its distributional effects.

CONCLUSION

The number of equity-informative CEAs is increasing, and the wide range of equity criteria, diseases, interventions, settings, and populations represented suggests that broad application of these methods is feasible but will require further refinement. Inclusion of equity into CEAs may shift the value of evaluated interventions and can provide crucial additional information for decision makers.

The Retail Food Sector and Indigenous Peoples in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Scoping Review

Indigenous Peoples in high-income countries experience higher burdens of food insecurity, obesity, and diet-related health conditions compared to national averages. The objective of this systematic scoping review is to synthesize information from the published literature on the methods/approaches, findings, and scope for research and interventions on the retail food sector servicing Indigenous Peoples in high-income countries. A structured literature search in two major international databases yielded 139 relevant peer-reviewed articles from nine countries. Most research was conducted in Oceania and North America, and in rural and remote regions. Several convergent issues were identified across global regions including limited grocery store availability/access, heightened exposure to unhealthy food environments, inadequate market food supplies (i.e., high prices, limited availability, and poor quality), and common underlying structural factors including socio-economic inequality and colonialism. A list of actions that can modify the nature and structure of retailing systems to enhance the availability, accessibility, and quality of healthful foods is identified. While continuing to (re)align research with community priorities, international collaboration may foster enhanced opportunities to strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice and contribute to the amelioration of diet quality and health at the population level.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of population salt reduction interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease in Cameroon: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Reducing dietary sodium (salt) intake has been proposed as a population-wide strategy to reduce blood pressure and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The cost-effectiveness of such strategies has hitherto not been investigated in Cameroon.

METHODS

A multicohort multistate life table Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three population salt reduction strategies: mass media campaign, school-based salt education programme and low-sodium salt substitute. A healthcare system perspective was considered and adults alive in 2016 were simulated over the life course. Outcomes were changes in disease incidence, mortality, health-adjusted life years (HALYs), healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over the lifetime. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to quantify uncertainty.

RESULTS

Over the life span of the cohort of adults alive in Cameroon in 2016, substantial numbers of new CVD events could be prevented, with over 10 000, 79 000 and 84 000 CVD deaths that could be averted from mass media, school education programme and salt substitute interventions, respectively. Population health gains over the lifetime were 46 700 HALYs, 348 800 HALYs and 368 400 HALYs for the mass media, school education programme and salt substitute interventions, respectively. ICERs showed that all interventions were dominant, with probabilities of being cost-saving of 84% for the school education programme, 89% for the mass media campaign and 99% for the low sodium salt substitute. Results were largely robust in sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

All the salt reduction strategies evaluated were highly cost-effective with very high probabilities of being cost-saving. Salt reduction in Cameroon has the potential to save many lives and offers good value for money.

Effectiveness and Feasibility of Taxing Salt and Foods High in Sodium: A Systematic Review of the Evidence

Diets high in salt are a leading risk for death and disability globally. Taxing unhealthy food is an effective means of influencing what people eat and improving population health. Although there is a growing body of evidence on taxing products high in sugar, and unhealthy foods more broadly, there is limited knowledge or experience of using fiscal measures to reduce salt consumption. We searched peer-reviewed databases [MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews] and gray literature for studies published between January 2000 and October 2019. Studies were included if they provided information on the impact on salt consumption of: taxes on salt; taxes on foods high in salt, and taxes on unhealthy foods defined to include foods high in salt. Studies were excluded if their definition of unhealthy foods did not specify high salt or sodium. We found 18 relevant studies, including 15 studies reporting the effects of salt taxes through modeling (8), real-world evaluation (4), experimental design (2), or review of cost-effectiveness (1); 6 studies providing information relevant to country implementation of salt taxes; and 2 studies reporting stakeholder perceptions toward salt taxation. Although there is some evidence on the potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of salt taxation, especially from modeling studies, uptake of salt taxation is limited in practice. Some modeling studies suggested that food taxes can have unintended outcomes such as reduced consumption of healthy foods, or increased consumption of unhealthy, untaxed substitutes. In contrast, modeling studies that combined taxes for unhealthy foods with subsidies found that the benefits were increased. Modeling suggests that taxing all foods based on their salt content is likely to have more impact than taxing specific products high in salt given that salt is pervasive in the food chain. However, the limited experience we found suggests that policy-makers favor taxing specific products.

Hypertension-Related Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors among Community-Dwellers at Risk for High Blood Pressure in Shanghai, China

This study aimed to investigate the hypertension-related knowledge, attitudes, behaviors (KAB), and socio-demographic determinants among community-dwellers who were at risk for hypertension in Shanghai, China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a district of Shanghai in 2017 using multi-stage cluster sampling, including 611 participants who were at risk for hypertension. Questionnaires were used to investigate KAB regarding hypertension prevention. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between socio-demographic factors and hypertension-related KAB. The results indicated that more than 75% of the study population had accurate knowledge, but only 48.4% knew the Recommended Daily Intake of salt for adults; over 80% formed health beliefs, while less than 50% were keeping a healthy diet, maintaining regular physical activity and/or bodyweight control. Better knowledge was found in the below 60 age group (p < 0.01) and the 60-69 age group (p = 0.03) than in the ≥70 age group. The behaviors in females (p < 0.01) were better than in males and were better in those covered by the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (p = 0.01) than in those with the New Rural Cooperative Medical Insurance. In conclusion, although the rates of accurate knowledge and belief of hypertension prevention were high in the study population, the rates of maintaining healthy behaviors were relatively low. Socio-demographic factors had important influences on hypertension-related KAB. Further health education and intervention of hypertension prevention was needed to improve their level of KAB and reduce their risk for hypertension among the target groups.

Preventive Pharmacotherapy for Cardiovascular Disease: A Modelling Study Considering Health Gain, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness when Stratifying by Absolute Risk

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death internationally. We aimed to model the impact of CVD preventive double therapy (a statin and anti-hypertensive) by clinician-assessed absolute risk level. An established and validated multi-state life-table model for the national New Zealand (NZ) population was adapted. The new version of the model specifically considered the 60–64-year-old male population which was stratified by risk using a published NZ-specific CVD risk equation. The intervention period of treatment was for five years, but a lifetime horizon was used for measuring benefits and costs (a five-year horizon was also implemented). We found that for this group offering double therapy was highly cost-effective in all absolute risk categories (eg, NZ$1580 per QALY gained in the >20% in 5 years risk stratum; 95%UI: Dominant to NZ$3990). Even in the lowest risk stratum (≤5% risk in 5 years), the cost per QALY was only NZ$25,500 (NZ$28,200 and US$19,100 in 2018). At an individual level, the gain for those who responded to the screening offer and commenced preventive treatment ranged from 0.6 to 4.9 months of quality-adjusted life gained (or less than a month gain with a five-year horizon). Nevertheless, at the individual level, patient considerations are critical as some people may decide that this amount of average health gain does not justify taking daily medication.

Consumption of salt rich products: impact of the UK reduced salt campaign

This paper uses a leading UK supermarket's loyalty card database to assess the effectiveness and impact of the 2004 UK reduced salt campaign. We present an econometric analysis of purchase data to assess the effectiveness of the Food Standard Agency's (FSA) 'reduced salt campaign'. We adopt a general approach to determining structural breaks in the time series of purchase data, using unit root tests whereby structural breaks are endogenously determined from the data. We find only limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of the FSA's reduced salt campaign. Our results support existing findings in the literature that have used alternative methodologies to examine the impact of information campaigns on consumer choice of products with high salt content.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of salt reformulation and increasing access to leisure centres in England, with PRIMEtime CE model validation using the AdViSHE tool

BACKGROUND

PRIMEtime CE is a multistate life table model that can directly compare the cost effectiveness of public health interventions affecting diet and physical activity levels, helping to inform decisions about how to spend finite resources. This paper estimates the costs and health outcomes in England of two scenarios: reformulating salt and expanding subsidised access to leisure centres. The results are used to help validate PRIMEtime CE, following the steps outlined in the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models (AdViSHE) tool.

METHODS

The PRIMEtime CE model estimates the difference in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and difference in NHS and social care costs of modelled interventions compared with doing nothing. The salt reformulation scenario models how salt consumption would change if food producers met the 2017 UK Food Standards Agency salt reformulation targets. The leisure centre scenario models change in physical activity levels if the Birmingham Be Active scheme (where swimming pools and gym access is free to residents during defined periods) was rolled out across England. The AdViSHE tool was developed by health economic modellers and divides model validation into five parts: validation of the conceptual model, input data validation, validation of computerised model, operational validation, and other validation techniques. PRIMEtime CE is discussed in relation to each part.

RESULTS

Salt reformulation was dominant compared with doing nothing, and had a 10-year return on investment of £1.44 (£0.50 to £2.94) for every £1 spent. By contrast, over 10 years the Be Active expansion would cost £727,000 (£514,000 to £1,064,000) per QALY. PRIMEtime CE has good face validity of its conceptual model and has robust input data. Cross-validation produces mixed results and shows the impact of model scope, input parameters, and model structure on cost-per-QALY estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper illustrates how PRIMEtime CE can be used to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different public health measures affecting diet and physical activity levels. The AdViSHE tool helps to validate PRIMEtime CE, identifies some of the key drivers of model estimates, and highlights the challenges of externally validating public health economic models against independent data.

Estimating the health benefits and cost-savings of a cap on the size of single serve sugar-sweetened beverages

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake is associated with tooth decay, obesity and diabetes. We aimed to model the health and cost impact of reducing the serving size of all single serve SSB to a maximum of 250 ml in New Zealand. A 250 ml serving size cap was modeled for all instances of single serves (<600 ml) of sugar-sweetened carbonated soft drinks, fruit drinks, carbonated energy drinks, and sports drinks in the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey intake data (2008/09). A multi-state life-table model used the change in energy intake and therefore BMI to predict the resulting health gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health system costs over the remaining life course of the New Zealand population alive in 2011 (N = 4.4 million, 3% discounting). The 'base case' model (no compensation for reduced energy intake) resulted in an average reduction in SSB and energy intake of 23 ml and 44 kJ (11 kcal) per day or 0.22 kg of weight modeled over two years. The total health gain and cost-savings were 82,100 QALYs (95% UI: 65100 to 101,000) and NZ$1.65 billion [b] (95% UI: 1.19 b to 2.24 b, (US$1.10 b)) over the lifespan of the cohort. QALY gains increased to 116,000 when the SSB definition was widened to include fruit juices and sweetened milks. A cap on single serve SSB could be an effective part of a suite of obesity prevention and sugar reduction interventions in high income countries.

The impact of food reformulation on nutrient intakes and health, a systematic review of modelling studies

BACKGROUND

Unhealthy diet is a risk factor for adverse health outcomes. Reformulation of processed foods has the potential to improve population diet, but evidence of its impact is limited. The purpose of this review was to explore the impact of reformulation on nutrient intakes, health outcomes and quality of life; and to evaluate the quality of modelling studies on reformulation interventions.

METHODS

A systematic review of peer-reviewed articles published between January 2000 and December 2017 was performed using MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination of the University of York. Additional studies were identified through informal searches on Google and specialized websites. Only simulation studies modelling the impact of food reformulation on nutrient intakes and health outcomes were included. Included articles were independently extracted by 2 reviewers using a standardized, pre-piloted data form, including a self-developed tool to assess study quality.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies met the selected inclusion criteria, with 20, 5 and 3 studies addressing sodium, sugar and fats reformulation respectively, and 5 studies addressing multiple nutrients. Evidence on the positive effects of reformulation on consumption and health was stronger for sodium interventions, less conclusive for sugar and fats. Study features were highly heterogeneous including differences in methods, the type of policy implemented, the extent of the reformulation, and the spectrum of targeted foods and nutrients. Nonetheless, partial between-study comparisons show a consistent relationship between percentages reformulated and reductions in individual consumption. Positive results are also shown for health outcomes and quality of life measures, although comparisons across studies are limited by the heterogeneity in model features and reporting. Study quality was often compromised by short time-horizons, disregard of uncertainty and time dependencies, and lack of model validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Reformulation models highlight relevant improvements in diets and population health. While models are valuable tools to evaluate reformulation interventions, comparisons are limited by non-homogeneous designs and assumptions. The use of validated models and extensive scenario analyses would improve models' credibility, providing useful insights for policy-makers.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

A research protocol was registered within the PROSPERO database (ID number CRD42017057341).

Process evaluation of Samoa's national salt reduction strategy (MASIMA): what interventions can be successfully replicated in lower-income countries?

BACKGROUND

Evidence for recommended interventions to reduce population salt intake come from high-income countries, but it is unknown if these can be successfully replicated in low- and middle-income countries. This process evaluation investigated the reach, dose/adoption, fidelity, cost, and context of a national salt reduction program of interventions in Samoa.

METHODS

Monitoring and Action on Salt in Samoa (MASIMA) was a pre- and post-intervention study of a government-led strategy to lower population salt intake comprising awareness campaigns, community mobilization and policy and environmental changes. Data relating to the five process evaluation dimensions were collected from routinely collected data, a post-intervention survey and stakeholder interviews. Chi-squared tests assessed differences in quantitative survey responses among groups. Thematic analysis of qualitative interview responses was undertaken and triangulated with the quantitative data.

RESULTS

Awareness campaigns, school nutrition standards, and community mobilization interventions were implemented with moderate reach and fidelity. Higher than expected costs of campaigns and limited opportunity (one-off) to mobilize community leaders to disseminate salt reduction messages were key implementation challenges, which meant intervention dose was low. Environmental-level initiatives including engagement with the food industry to voluntary reduce salt in foods and the introduction of salt-related regulations were more challenging to implement within 18-months, particularly given the delay in the passing of the Food Act which provides for enforcement of regulations. Contextual factors that hindered the interventions' mechanism of effect include the food culture, higher cost, and lower availability of healthy low-salt foods relative to unhealthy foods and salty taste preference.

CONCLUSION

Although individual and community-based interventions helped increase awareness about the importance of salt reduction in Samoa, legislative backing was needed to alter the food environment to achieve population reduction in salt intake. It was not possible to engage the food industry to lower salt in foods through a voluntary approach in Samoa's current context, although such initiatives were successful in some high-income countries. Future individual and environmental-level interventions to reduce salt intake need to address the contextual influences of food choices. In Samoa, this means salt reduction strategies need to ensure consuming lower salt is affordable, widely available, and perceived as flavorsome.

Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal

Objective

To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met.

Methods

The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015–2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990–2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030.

Findings

If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015–2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021.

Conclusion

The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.

Healthcare Expenditure and Productivity Cost Savings from Reductions in Cardiovascular Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Associated with Increased Intake of Cereal Fibre among Australian Adults: A Cost of Illness Analysis

An ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are putting increased pressure on healthcare expenditure in Australia. A cost of illness analysis was conducted to assess the potential savings in healthcare expenditure and productivity costs associated with lower prevalence of CVD and T2D resulting from increased intake of cereal fibre. Modelling was undertaken for three levels of increased dietary fibre intake using cereal fibre: a 10% increase in total dietary fibre; an increase to the Adequate Intake; and an increase to the Suggested Dietary Target. Total healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings associated with reduced CVD and T2D were calculated by gender, socioeconomic status, baseline dietary fibre intake, and population uptake. Total combined annual healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings of AUD$17.8 million-$1.6 billion for CVD and AUD$18.2 million-$1.7 billion for T2D were calculated. Total savings were generally larger among adults of lower socioeconomic status and those with lower dietary fibre intakes. Given the substantial healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings that could be realised through increases in cereal fibre, there is cause for the development of interventions and policies that encourage an increase in cereal fibre intake in Australia.

Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction

We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key features, their underlying assumptions and input data. Next, assumptions and input data were varied one by one in a default approach (the DYNAMO-HIA model) to examine how it influences the estimated health impact. Major differences in outcome were related to the size and shape of the dose-response relation between salt and blood pressure and blood pressure and disease. Modifying the effect sizes in the salt to health association resulted in the largest change in health impact estimates (33% lower), whereas other changes had less influence. Differences in health impact assessment model structure and input data may affect the health impact estimate. Therefore, clearly defined assumptions and transparent reporting for different models is crucial. However, the estimated impact of salt reduction was substantial in all of the models used, emphasizing the need for public health actions.

Evidence of Dietary Improvement and Preventable Costs of Cardiovascular Disease

We conducted a review to summarize preventable medical costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with improved diet, as defined by the 2020 Strategic Impact Goal of the American Heart Association. We searched databases of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and ABI/INFORM to identify population-based studies published from January 1995 to December 2015 on CVD medical costs related to excess intake of salt/sodium or sugar-sweetened beverages, and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables, fish/fish oils/omega-3 fatty acids, or whole grains/fiber/dietary fiber. Based on the American Heart Association's secondary dietary metrics, we also searched the literature on inadequate intake of nuts and excess intake of processed meat and saturated fat. For each component, we evaluated the CVD cost savings if consumption levels were changed. The cost savings were adjusted into 2013 US dollars. Among 330 studies focusing on diet and economic consequences, 16 studies evaluated CVD costs associated with 1 or more dietary components: salt/sodium (n = 13), fruits and vegetables (n = 1), meat (n = 1), and saturated fat (n = 3). In the United States, reducing individual sodium intake to 2,300 mg/day from the current level could potentially save $1,990.9/person per year for hypertension treatment, based on a simulation study. Increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables from <0.5 cup/day to >1.5 cups/day could save $1,568.0/person per year in treatment costs for CVD, based on a cohort study. Potential CVD cost savings associated with diet improvement are substantial. Interventions for reducing sodium intake and increasing fruit and vegetable consumption could be viable means to alleviate the increasing national medical expenditures.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a school-based education program to reduce salt intake in children and their families in China

Objective

The School-based Education Program to Reduce Salt Intake in Children and Their Families study was a cluster randomized control trial among grade five students in 28 primary schools and their families in Changzhi, China. It achieved a significant effect in lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in all family adults by 2.3 mmHg and in elderlies (aged > = 60 years) by 9.5 mmHg. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of this salt reduction program.

Methods

Costs of the intervention were assessed using an ingredients approach to identify resource use. A trial-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated based on the observed effectiveness in lowering SBP. A Markov model was used to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of the intervention, and then based on population data, extrapolated to a scenario where the program is scaled up nationwide. Findings were presented in terms of an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The perspective was that of the health sector.

Results

The intervention cost Int$19.04 per family and yielded an ICER of Int$2.74 (90% CI: 1.17–12.30) per mmHg reduction of SBP in all participants (combining children and adult participants together) compared with control group. If scaled up nationwide for 10 years and assumed deterioration in treatment effect of 50% over this period, it would reach 165 million families and estimated to avert 42,720 acute myocardial infarction deaths and 107,512 stroke deaths in China. This would represent a gain of 635,816 QALYs over 10-year time frame, translating into Int$1,358 per QALY gained.

Conclusion

Based on WHO-CHOICE criteria, our analysis demonstrated that the proposed salt reduction strategy is highly cost-effective, and if scaled up nationwide, the benefits could be substantial.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01821144

Systematic review of dietary salt reduction policies: Evidence for an effectiveness hierarchy?

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared "downstream, agentic" approaches targeting individuals with "upstream, structural" policy-based population strategies.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from "downstream": dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most "upstream" regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components.

RESULTS

After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and "upstream" population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than "downstream", individually focussed interventions. This 'effectiveness hierarchy' might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies.

Cost-effectiveness of salt reduction to prevent hypertension and CVD: a systematic review

Objective

To analyse and compare the cost-effectiveness of different interventions to reduce salt consumption.

Design

A systematic review of published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) and cost-utility analyses (CUA) was undertaken in the databases EMBASE, MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane and others until July 2016. Study selection was limited to CEA and CUA conducted in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in English, German or French, without time limit. Outcomes measures were life years gained (LYG), disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Relevant aspects in modelling were analysed and compared. Quality assessments were conducted using the Drummond and Jefferson/British Medical Journalchecklist.

Setting

OECD member countries.

Subjects

Mainly adults.

Results

Fourteen CEA and CUA were included in the review which analysed different strategies: salt reduction or substitution in processed foods, taxes, labelling, awareness campaigns and targeted dietary advice. Fifty-nine out of sixty-two scenarios were cost-saving. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in international dollars (Intl.$; 2015) was particularly low for taxes, a salt reduction by food manufacturers and labelling (<−3072 Intl.$/QALY, −6187 Intl.$/LYG and <584 Intl.$/DALY over the time horizon compared with the status quo or no intervention). Targeted dietary advice was rather not cost-effective (24 600 Intl.$/QALY and >303 900 Intl.$/DALY). However, only six studies analysed cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective and quality assessments showed flaws in conducting and a lack of transparency in reporting.

Conclusions

A population-wide salt reduction could be cost-effective in prevention of hypertension and CVD in OECD member countries. However, comparability between study results is limited due to differences in modelling, applied perspectives and considered data.

Changing ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand over 30 years: linked cohort studies with 68.9 million person-years of follow-up

BACKGROUND

Internationally, ethnic inequalities in mortality within countries are increasingly recognized as a public health concern. But few countries have data to monitor such inequalities. We aimed to provide a detailed description of ethnic inequalities (Māori [indigenous], Pacific, and European/Other) in mortality for a country with high quality ethnicity data, using both standard and novel visualization methods.

METHODS

Cohort studies of the entire New Zealand population were conducted, using probabilistically-linked Census and mortality data from 1981 to 2011 (68.9 million person years). Absolute (standardized rate difference) and relative (standardized rate ratio) inequalities were calculated, in 1-74-year-olds, for Māori and Pacific peoples in comparison to European/Other.

RESULTS

All-cause mortality rates were highest for Māori, followed by Pacific peoples then European/Other, and declined in all three ethnic groups over time. Pacific peoples experienced the slowest annual percentage fall in mortality rates, then Māori, with European/Other having the highest percentage falls - resulting in widening relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities, however, for both Māori and Pacific males compared to European/Other have been falling since 1996. But for females, only Māori absolute inequalities (compared with European/Other) have been falling. Regarding cause of death, cancer is becoming a more important contributor than cardiovascular disease (CVD) to absolute inequalities, especially for Māori females.

CONCLUSIONS

We found declines in all-cause mortality rates, over time, for each ethnic group of interest. Ethnic mortality inequalities are generally stable or even falling in absolute terms, but have increased on a relative scale. The drivers of these inequalities in mortality are transitioning over time, away from CVD to cancer and diabetes; such transitions are likely in other countries, and warrant further research. To address these inequalities, policymakers need to enhance prevention activities and health care delivery, but also support wider improvements in educational achievement and socioeconomic position for highest need populations.

Translating the WHO 25×25 goals into a UK context: the PROMISE modelling study

OBJECTIVE

Model the impact of targets for obesity, diabetes, raised blood pressure, tobacco use, salt intake, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol use, as outlined in the Global Non-Communicable Disease Action Plan 2013-2020, on mortality and morbidity in the UK population.

DESIGN

Dynamic population modelling study.

SETTING

UK population.

PARTICIPANTS

Not available.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality and morbidity (years lived with disability) from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) that are averted or delayed. Probability of achieving a 25% reduction in premature mortality from NCDs by 2025 (current WHO target) and a 33% reduction by 2030 (proposed target).

RESULTS

The largest improvements in mortality would be achieved by meeting the obesity target and the largest improvements in morbidity would be achieved by meeting the diabetes target. The UK could achieve the 2025 and 2030 targets for reducing premature mortality with only a little additional preventive effort compared with current practice. Achieving all 7 risk targets could avert a total of 300 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 250 000 to 350 000) and 1.3 million years lived with disability (1.2-1.4 million) from NCDs by 2025, with the majority of health gains due to reduced mortality and morbidity from heart disease and stroke, and reduced morbidity from diabetes. Potential reductions in morbidity from depression and in morbidity and mortality from dementia at older ages are also substantial.

CONCLUSIONS

The global premature mortality targets are a potentially achievable goal for countries such as the UK that can capitalise on many decades of effort in prevention and treatment. High morbidity diseases and diseases in later life are not addressed in the Global NCD Action Plan and targets, but must also be considered a priority for prevention in the UK where the population is ageing and the costs of health and social care are rising.