Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

Expanding the focus of the One Health concept: links between the Earth-system processes of the planetary boundaries framework and antibiotic resistance

The scientific community warns that our impact on planet Earth is so acute that we are crossing several of the planetary boundaries that demarcate the safe operating space for humankind. Besides, there is mounting evidence of serious effects on people's health derived from the ongoing environmental degradation. Regarding human health, the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria is one of the most critical public health issues worldwide. Relevantly, antibiotic resistance has been claimed to be the quintessential One Health issue. The One Health concept links human, animal, and environmental health, but it is frequently only focused on the risk of zoonotic pathogens to public health or, to a lesser extent, the impact of contaminants on human health, i.e., adverse effects on human health coming from the other two One Health "compartments". It is recurrently claimed that antibiotic resistance must be approached from a One Health perspective, but such statement often only refers to the connection between the use of antibiotics in veterinary practice and the antibiotic resistance crisis, or the impact of contaminants (antibiotics, heavy metals, disinfectants, etc.) on antibiotic resistance. Nonetheless, the nine Earth-system processes considered in the planetary boundaries framework can be directly or indirectly linked to antibiotic resistance. Here, some of the main links between those processes and the dissemination of antibiotic resistance are described. The ultimate goal is to expand the focus of the One Health concept by pointing out the links between critical Earth-system processes and the One Health quintessential issue, i.e., antibiotic resistance.

Holistic One Health Surveillance Framework: Synergizing Environmental, Animal, and Human Determinants for Enhanced Infectious Disease Management

Recent pandemics, including the COVID-19 outbreak, have brought up growing concerns about transmission of zoonotic diseases from animals to humans. This highlights the requirement for a novel approach to discern and address the escalating health threats. The One Health paradigm has been developed as a responsive strategy to confront forthcoming outbreaks through early warning, highlighting the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and their environment. The system employs several innovative methods such as the use of advanced technology, global collaboration, and data-driven decision-making to come up with an extraordinary solution for improving worldwide disease responses. This Review deliberates environmental, animal, and human factors that influence disease risk, analyzes the challenges and advantages inherent in using the One Health surveillance system, and demonstrates how these can be empowered by Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. The Holistic One Health Surveillance Framework presented herein holds the potential to revolutionize our capacity to monitor, understand, and mitigate the impact of infectious diseases on global populations.

Biogeographic regionalization of human infectious diseases in Brazil based on geographically explicit data

OBJECTIVE

Biogeographic regionalization represents abstractions of the organisation of life on Earth, and can provide a large-scaled framework for health management and planning. We aimed at determining a biogeographic regionalization for human infectious diseases in Brazil, and at investigating non-mutually exclusive hypotheses predicting the observed regions.

METHODS

Based on the spatial distributions of 12 infectious diseases with mandatory notification (SINAN database, 2007-2020, n = 15,839), we identified regions through a clustering procedure based on beta-diversity turnover. The analysis was repeated 1000 times by randomly shuffling the rows (0.5° cells) in the original matrix. We evaluated the relative importance of variables using multinomial logistic regression models: contemporary climate (temperature and precipitation), human activity (population density and geographic accessibility), land cover (11 classes), and the full model (all variables). We refined the geographic boundaries of each cluster by polygonising their kernel densities to identify clusters' core zones.

RESULTS

The two-cluster solution showed the best correspondence between disease ranges and clusters geographic limits. The largest cluster occurred with more density in the central and northeastern regions, while the smaller and complementary cluster occurred in the south and southeastern region. The best model for explaining the regionalization was the full model, supporting the 'complex association hypothesis'. The heatmap showed a NE-S directional display of the cluster's densities, and core zones showed geographic correspondence with tropical + arid (NE) versus temperate (S) climates.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that there is a discernible latitudinal pattern in the turnover of disease in Brazil, and this phenomenon is associated with an intricate interplay between contemporary climate, population activity, and land cover. This generalised biogeographic pattern may offer the earliest insights into the geographic arrangement of diseases in the country. We suggested that the latitudinal pattern could be adopted as a nationwide framework for geographic vaccine allocation.

Effects of temperature and humidity on peritonsillar abscess volume of emergency patients

Climate and temperature have long been considered in relation to human diseases and mortality. In this study, we investigated whether daily temperature and humidity and patients' personal history affect the volume of peritonsillar abscesses (PTAs). We included 52 patients with PTAs who were admitted to the emergency department of the study hospital; their computed tomography data were analyzed, and PTA volume was measured. We investigated the possible correlation between PTA volume and mean/minimum/maximum temperature and humidity. Furthermore, we obtained personal history data, including information on drinking status, smoking status, dental problems, and patients' treatment experiences at local clinics before visiting the emergency department. The mean PTA volume was 3.93 mL, which was significantly correlated with temperature differences between 1 and 2 days before hospitalization and the day of hospitalization (P < .05) and also with a lack of treatment experience at local clinics (P < .001). However, no significant correlation was noted between PTA volume and the mean/minimum/maximum temperature and humidity on the day of hospitalization (P > .05). Similar findings were obtained for drinking status, smoking status, and dental problems (P > .1). PTA volume appears to be strongly associated with temperature differences between 1 and 2 days before hospitalization and the day of hospitalization. Patients with treatment experience at local clinics exhibited substantial increases in PTA volume. Thus, an increased PTA volume may be observed in patients who visit the emergency department without any treatment experience at local clinics or from environments that differ considerably from their current environment in terms of temperature.

Blastomycosis-Some Progress but Still Much to Learn

Blastomycosis, caused by Blastomyces spp., is an endemic mycosis capable of causing significant disease throughout the body. Higher rates of infection are seen in the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada, much of Africa, and, to a lesser extent, in India and the Middle East. Limited reporting inhibits our true understanding of the geographic distribution of blastomycosis. An estimated 50% of those infected remain asymptomatic. Of those who present with symptomatic disease, pulmonary involvement is most common, while the most common extrapulmonary sites are the skin, bones, genitourinary system, and central nervous system. Itraconazole is the standard therapy for mild-moderate disease. Data for other azoles are limited. Amphotericin is used for severe disease, and corticosteroids are occasionally used in severe disease, but evidence for this practice is limited. Despite increasing incidence and geographic reach in recent years, there are still significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of blastomycosis. Here, we provide an updated review of the epidemiology, clinical presentations, and diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for this infection. We also discuss areas needing further research.

Norovirus Genogroup II Epidemics and the Potential Effect of Climate Change on Norovirus Transmission in Taiwan

The activity of norovirus varies from season to season, and the effect of climate change on the incidence of norovirus outbreaks is a widely recognized yet poorly understood phenomenon. Investigation of the possible association between climatic factors and the incidence of norovirus is key to a better understanding of the epidemiology of norovirus and early prediction of norovirus outbreaks. In this study, clinical stool samples from acute gastroenteritis outbreaks were collected from January 2015 to June 2019 in Taiwan. Data analysis from our study indicated that more than half of the cases were reported in the winter and spring seasons, including those caused by norovirus of genotypes GII (genogroup II).2, GII.3, GII.6, and GII.17, and 45.1% of the patients who tested positive for norovirus were infected by the GII.4 norovirus in autumn. However, GII.6 norovirus accounted for a higher proportion of the cases reported in summer than any other strain. Temperature is a crucial factor influencing patterns of epidemic outbreaks caused by distinct genotypes of norovirus. The results of this study may help experts predict and issue early public warnings of norovirus transmission and understand the effect of climate change on norovirus outbreaks caused by different genotypes and occurring in different locations.

A Review of Mammarenaviruses and Rodent Reservoirs in the Americas

In the Americas, infectious viral diseases caused by viruses of the genus Mammarenavirus have been reported since the 1960s. Such diseases have commonly been associated with land use changes, which favor abundance of generalist rodent species. In the Americas-where the rates of land use change are among the highest worldwide-at least 1326 of all 2277 known rodent species have been reported. We conducted a literature review of studies between 1960 and 2020, to establish the current and historical knowledge about genotypes of mammarenaviruses and their rodent reservoirs in the Americas. Our overall goal was to show the importance of focusing research efforts on the American continent, since the conditions exist for future viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreaks caused by rodent-borne viruses, in turn, carried by widely distributed rodents. We found 47 species identified down to the species level, and one species identified only down to the genus level (Oryzomys sp.), reported in the Americas as reservoirs of mammarenaviruses, most these are ecological generalists. These species associate with 29 genotypes of Mammarenavirus, seven of which have been linked to VHFs in humans. We also highlight the need to monitor these species, in order to prevent viral disease outbreaks in the region.

Respiratory Viruses in Acute Exacerbations of Bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND

Bacterial infections are well known factors underlying acute exacerbations in bronchiectasis. However, viral infections may also contribute to acute exacerbations. We aimed to assess the rate of viral detection in acute exacerbations of bronchiectasis, and the associated clinical factors.

METHODS

Diagnostic tests for viral and bacterial etiologies were performed in 792 patients with bronchiectasis who visited the emergency room or the respiratory care inpatient unit in a tertiary referral center in South Korea. All patients were diagnosed with bronchiectasis by chest computerized tomography and were prescribed antibiotics for a minimum of 3 days.

RESULTS

Viral pathogens were detected in 202 of the 792 enrolled patients (25.5%). The most common viral pathogen isolated was influenza A virus (24.8%), followed by rhinovirus (22.4%), influenza B virus (9.8%), respiratory syncytial virus B (8.9%), and human metapneumovirus (6.1%). In 145 patients, a viral, but not bacterial, pathogen was detected, whereas no pathogens were found in 443 patients with exacerbations. Multivariable analysis revealed that female sex and chronic heart disease as a comorbidity were positively associated with viral detection in acute exacerbations of patients with bronchiectasis, whereas the presence of radiographic infiltration was negatively associated.

CONCLUSION

Respiratory viruses were identified in approximately 25% of the acute exacerbations observed among patients with bronchiectasis. Of the viruses detected, influenza viruses and rhinovirus made up over 50%. More attention to viruses as possible causative pathogens for acute deteriorating symptoms in patients with bronchiectasis is warranted.

Applying principles of injury and infectious disease control to the opioid mortality epidemic in North America: critical intervention gaps

North America has been experiencing an acute and unprecedented public health crisis involving excessive and increasing levels of opioid-related overdose mortality. In the present commentary, we examine current interventions (as existent mainly in Canada) to date and compare them against established intervention frameworks and practices in other areas of public health, specifically injury and infectious disease control. We observe that current interventions focusing on opioid drug safety or exposure-specifically those that focus on distinctly potent and toxic opioid products driving major increases in overdose mortality-may be considered the equivalent of 'agent-' or 'vector'-based interventions. Such interventions have been largely neglected in favor of 'host' (e.g., drug user-oriented) or 'environmental' measures among strategies to reduce opioid-related overdose, likely contributing to the limited efficacy of current measures. We explore potential reasons, implications and remedies for these gaps in the overall public health strategy employed towards improved interventions to reduce opioid-related health harms.

The knowledge needs for Canadian paediatric emergency physicians in the diagnosis and management of tropical diseases: A national physician survey

OBJECTIVES

To assess the knowledge gaps and need for continuing medical education (CME) resources for Canadian paediatric emergency department (PED) physician management of common tropical diseases.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey study of Canadian PED was performed from May to July 2017 using the Pediatric Emergency Research Canada (PERC) database.

RESULTS

The response rate was 56.4% (133/236). The mean performance on the case-based vignettes identifying clinical presentation of tropical illnesses ranged from 59.9% to 76.0%, with only 15.8% (n=21) to 31.1% (n=42) of participants scoring maximum points. Those who 'always' asked about fever performed better than those who only 'sometimes' asked (40.4% versus 23.8%). For management cases, the majority of the participants (59.4% to 89.5%) were able to interpret investigations; however, many were unsure of subsequent actions relating to initial treatment, discharge instructions, and reporting requirements. Many would consult infectious diseases (87.8% to 99.3%). Fifty-three per cent of the participants reported a low comfort level in diagnosing or managing these patients. They rated the importance of CME materials with a median of 50/100, via various modalities such as case studies (71.9%), emphasizing a need for PED-specific content.

CONCLUSION

This study identified a knowledge gap in the recognition and management of pediatric tropical diseases by Canadian PED physicians. There is a need for formal CME materials to supplement physician practice.

Defining important canine zoonotic pathogens within the Prairie Provinces of Canada

The goal of this study was to establish a short list of zoonotic pathogens involving the domestic dog that can be prioritized for a companion animal surveillance program specific to the Prairie Provinces of Canada. A list of pathogens documented in dogs was created through a comprehensive review of infectious disease textbooks for the following taxonomical categories: bacteria, ectoparasites, fungi, helminths, protozoa, rickettsia, and viruses. This created an initial list of 594 pathogens that was then pared down through an extensive review of the literature using the following criteria: i) the pathogen is zoonotic/sapronotic/anthroponotic; ii) the dog is involved in transmission to humans, maintenance, or detection of the pathogen; and iii) there is a level of risk for occurrence of the pathogen in Canada. This process yielded a final list of 84 pathogens and 3 supplementary lists of canine zoonotic/sapronotic/anthroponotic pathogens that may become relevant to future surveillance programs.

Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research

Anthropogenic climate change is adversely impacting people and contributing to suffering and increased costs from climate-related diseases and injuries. In responding to this urgent and growing public health crisis, mitigation strategies are in place to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) while adaptation strategies exist to reduce and/or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change by increasing systems' resilience to future impacts. While these strategies have numerous positive benefits on climate change itself, they also often have other positive externalities or health co-benefits. This knowledge can be harnessed to promote and improve global public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Previous conceptual models in mitigation and adaptation studies such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considered health in the thinking, but health outcomes were not their primary intention. Additionally, existing guidance documents such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidance for Climate Resilient and Environmentally Sustainable Health Care Facilities is designed primarily for public health professionals or healthcare managers in hospital settings with a primary focus on resilience. However, a detailed cross sectoral and multidisciplinary conceptual framework, which links mitigation and adaptation strategies with health outcomes as a primary end point, has not yet been developed to guide research in this area. In this paper, we briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research and preparedness across sectors and disciplines and outline key stakeholders recommendations in promoting climate resilient systems and advancing health equity.

The Canadian Fungal Research Network: current challenges and future opportunities

Fungi critically impact the health and function of global ecosystems and economies. In Canada, fungal researchers often work within silos defined by subdiscipline and institutional type, complicating the collaborations necessary to understand the impacts fungi have on the environment, economy, and plant and animal health. Here, we announce the establishment of the Canadian Fungal Research Network (CanFunNet, https://fungalresearch.ca), whose mission is to strengthen and promote fungal research in Canada by facilitating dialogue among scientists. We summarize the challenges and opportunities for Canadian fungal research that were discussed at CanFunNet's inaugural meeting in 2019, and identify 4 priorities for our community: (i) increasing collaboration among scientists, (ii) studying diversity in the context of ecological disturbance, (iii) preserving culture collections in the absence of sustained funding, and (iv) leveraging diverse expertise to attract trainees. We have gathered additional information to support our recommendations, including a survey identifying underrepresentation of fungal-related courses at Canadian universities, a list of Canadian fungaria and culture collections, and a case study of a human fungal pathogen outbreak. We anticipate that these discussions will help prioritize fungal research in Canada, and we welcome all researchers to join this nationwide effort to enhance knowledge dissemination and funding advocacy.

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases with cutaneous manifestations

Background

Anthropogenic climate change affects the burden of infectious diseases via several interconnected mechanisms. In recent years, there has been greater awareness of the ways in which climate-sensitive infectious diseases pose a growing threat to global public health.

Objective

This study aimed to categorize and describe the effects of climate change on infectious diseases with skin manifestations.

Methods

A scoping review of the MEDLINE and PubMed online databases for climate-sensitive infections was performed in February and March 2020. A representative selection of conditions with skin manifestations was included in this review.

Results

Several representative climate-sensitive infectious diseases were identified in each of the following categories: vector-borne infectious diseases, infectious diseases associated with extreme weather events, and infectious diseases linked to human migration.

Conclusion

Climate variables directly influence the survival and reproduction of infectious microorganisms, their vectors, and their animal reservoirs. Due to sustained warmer temperatures at higher latitudes, climate change has expanded the geographic range of certain pathogenic microbes. More frequent climate change-related extreme weather events create circumstances where existing infectious microorganisms flourish and novel infections emerge. Climate instability is linked to increased human migration, which disrupts health care infrastructure as well as the habitats of microbes, vectors, and animal reservoirs and leads to widespread poverty and overcrowding. Dermatologists should understand that climate change will affect the burden and geographic distribution of infectious diseases, many of which have cutaneous signs and might be encountered in their regular practice.

Climatic changes and their role in emergence and re-emergence of diseases

Global warming and the associated climate changes are predictable. They are enhanced by burning of fossil fuels and the emission of huge amounts of CO₂ gas which resulted in greenhouse effect. It is expected that the average global temperature will increase with 2-5 °C in the next decades. As a result, the earth will exhibit marked climatic changes characterized by extremer weather events in the coming decades, such as the increase in temperature, rainfall, summertime, droughts, more frequent and stronger tornadoes and hurricanes. Epidemiological disease cycle includes host, pathogen and in certain cases intermediate host/vector. A complex mixture of various environmental conditions (e.g. temperature and humidity) determines the suitable habitat/ecological niche for every vector host. The availability of suitable vectors is a precondition for the emergence of vector-borne pathogens. Climate changes and global warming will have catastrophic effects on human, animal and environmental ecosystems. Pathogens, especially neglected tropical disease agents, are expected to emerge and re-emerge in several countries including Europe and North America. The lives of millions of people especially in developing countries will be at risk in direct and indirect ways. In the present review, the role of climate changes in the spread of infectious agents and their vectors is discussed. Examples of the major emerging viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases are also summarized.

Patterns, Drivers, and Challenges of Vector-Borne Disease Emergence

Vector-borne diseases are emerging at an increasing rate and comprise a disproportionate share of all emerging infectious diseases. Yet, the key ecological and evolutionary dimensions of vector-borne disease that facilitate their emergence have not been thoroughly explored. This study reviews and synthesizes the existing literature to explore global patterns of emerging vector-borne zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) under changing global conditions. We find that the vast majority of emerging VBZDs are transmitted by ticks (Ixodidae) and mosquitoes (Culicidae) and the pathogens transmitted are dominated by Rickettsiaceae bacteria and RNA viruses (Flaviviridae, Bunyaviridae, and Togaviridae). The most common potential driver of these emerging zoonoses is land use change, but for many diseases, the driver is unknown, revealing a critical research gap. While most reported VBZDs are emerging in the northern latitudes, after correcting for sampling bias, Africa is clearly a region with the greatest share of emerging VBZD. We highlight critical gaps in our understanding of VBZD emergence and emphasize the importance of interdisciplinary research and consideration of deeper evolutionary processes to improve our capacity for anticipating where and how such diseases have and will continue to emerge.

The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network

Climate change has been described to raise outbreaks of water-born infectious diseases and increases public health concerns. This study aimed at finding out these impacts on cholera infections by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) from 2021 to 2050. Daily data for cholera infection cases in Qom city, which is located in the center of Iran, were analyzed from 1998 to 2016. To determine the best lag time and combination of inputs, Gamma Test (GT) was applied. General circulation model outputs were utilized to project future climate pattern under two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Statistical downscaling was done to produce high-resolution synthetic time series weather dataset. ANNs were applied for simulating the impact of climate change on cholera. The observed climate variables including maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were tagged as predictors in ANNs. Cholera cases were considered as the target outcome variable. Projected future (2020–2050) climate in previous step was carried out to assess future cholera incidence. A seasonal trend in cholera infection was seen. Our results elucidated that the best lag time was 21 days. According to the results of downscaling tool, future climate in the study area by 2050 will be warmer and wetter. Simulation of cholera cases indicated that there is a clear trend of increasing cholera cases under the worst scenario (RCP8.5) by the year 2050 and the highest cholera cases observe in warmer months. The precipitation was recognized as the most effective input variable by sensitivity analysis. We observed a significant correlation between low precipitation and cholera infection. There is a strong evidence to show that cholera disease is correlated with environment variables, as low precipitation and high temperatures in warmer months could provide the swifter bacterial replication. These conditions in Iran, especially in the central parts, may raise the cholera infection rates. Furthermore, ANNs is an executive tool to simulate the impact of climate change on cholera to estimate the future trend of cholera incidence for adopting protective measures in endemic areas.

Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Ixodes scapularis Population Dynamics and Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission and Prevalence

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model is developed and parametrized based on a collection of lab and field studies. The model is shown to produce biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the hosts when compared to a different set of studies. The model is used to predict the response of Lyme disease risk to a mean annual temperature increase, based on current temperature cycles in Hanover, NH. Many of the risk measures suggested by the literature are shown to change with increased mean annual temperature. The most straightforward measure of disease risk is the abundance of infected questing ticks, averaged over a year. Compared to this measure, which is difficult and resource-intensive to track in the field, all other risk measures considered underestimate the rise of risk with rise in mean annual temperature. The measure coming closest was “degree days above zero.” Disease prevalence in ticks and hosts showed less increase with rising temperature. Single field measurements at the height of transmission season did not show much change at all with rising temperature.

Warmer Weather as a Risk Factor for Cellulitis: A Population-based Investigation

Background

The incidence of cellulitis is highly seasonal and this seasonality may be explained by changes in the weather, specifically, temperature.

Methods

Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (years 1998 to 2011), we identified the geographic location for 773719 admissions with the primary diagnosis (ICD-9-CM code) of cellulitis and abscess of finger and toe (681.XX) and other cellulitis and abscess (682.XX). Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each of these different locations. We modeled the odds of an admission having a primary diagnosis of cellulitis as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year, and the average temperature in the month of admission.

Results

We found that the odds of an admission with a primary diagnosis of cellulitis increase with higher temperatures in a dose-response fashion. For example, relative to a cold February with average temperatures under 40° F, an admission in a hot July with an average temperature exceeding 90°F has 66.63% higher odds of being diagnosed with cellulitis (95% confidence interval [CI]: [61.2, 72.3]). After controlling for temperature, the estimated amplitude of seasonality of cellulitis decreased by approximately 71%.

Conclusion

At a population level, admissions to the hospital for cellulitis risk are strongly associated with warmer weather.

Association Between Sporadic Legionellosis and River Systems in Connecticut

Background

There has been a dramatic increase in the incidence of sporadic legionnaires' disease in Connecticut since 1999, but the exact reasons for this are unknown. Therefore, there is a growing need to understand the drivers of legionnaires' disease in the community. In this study, we explored the relationship between the natural environment and the spatial and temporal distribution of legionellosis cases in Connecticut.

Methods

We used spatial models and time series methods to evaluate factors associated with the increase and clustering of legionellosis in Connecticut. Stream flow, proximity to rivers, and residence in regional watersheds were explored as novel predictors of disease, while controlling for testing intensity and correlates of urbanization.

Results

In Connecticut, legionellosis incidence exhibited a strong pattern of spatial clustering. Proximity to several rivers and residence in the corresponding watersheds were associated with increased incidence of the disease. Elevated rainfall and stream flow rate were associated with increases in incidence 2 weeks later.

Conclusions

We identified a novel relationship between the natural aquatic environment and the spatial distribution of sporadic cases of legionellosis. These results suggest that natural environmental reservoirs may have a greater influence on the spatial distribution of sporadic legionellosis cases than previously thought.

How will climate change impact microbial foodborne disease in Canada?

Foodborne disease is a major concern in Canada and represents a significant climate change-related threat to public health. Climate variables, including temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and ocean warming and acidification, are known to exert significant, complicated and interrelated effects along the entire length of the food chain. Foodborne diseases are caused by a range of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses, and the prevalence of these diseases is modified by climate change through alterations in the abundance, growth, range and survival of many pathogens, as well as through alterations in human behaviours and in transmission factors such as wildlife vectors. As climate change continues and/or intensifies, it will increase the risk of an adverse effect on food safety in Canada ranging from increased public health burden to the emergence of risks not currently seen in our food chain. Clinical and public health practitioners need to be aware of the existing and emerging risks to respond accordingly.

Epidemiology and Geographic Distribution of Blastomycosis, Histoplasmosis, and Coccidioidomycosis, Ontario, Canada, 1990-2015

Elevated incidence of blastomycosis in Ontario calls for diagnostic vigilance.

Endemic mycoses represent a growing public health challenge in North America. We describe the epidemiology of 1,392 microbiology laboratory–confirmed cases of blastomycosis, histoplasmosis, and coccidioidomycosis in Ontario during 1990–2015. Blastomycosis was the most common infection (1,092 cases; incidence of 0.41 cases/100,000 population), followed by histoplasmosis (211 cases) and coccidioidomycosis (89 cases). Incidence of blastomycosis increased from 1995 to 2001 and has remained elevated, especially in the northwest region, incorporating several localized hotspots where disease incidence (10.9 cases/100,000 population) is 12.6 times greater than in any other region of the province. This retrospective study substantially increases the number of known endemic fungal infections reported in Canada, confirms Ontario as an important region of endemicity for blastomycosis and histoplasmosis, and provides an epidemiologic baseline for future disease surveillance. Clinicians should include blastomycosis and histoplasmosis in the differential diagnosis of antibiotic-refractory pneumonia in patients traveling to or residing in Ontario.

An unusual case of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae prosthetic joint infection from the Canadian Arctic: whole genome sequencing unable to identify a zoonotic source

Background

Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae is a zoonotic pathogen that causes erysipeloid and is most frequently associated with exposure to domestic swine. Infection of native and prosthetic joints is a rarely reported manifestation.

Case presentation

We describe a case of E. rhusiopathiae prosthetic joint infection in a woman with a history of exposure to wild animals in the Canadian Arctic. Patient management involved a 1-stage surgical revision exchange with an antibiotic impregnated cement spacer and 6 weeks of intravenous penicillin G followed by 6 weeks of oral amoxicillin. Ten previously reported cases of E. rhusiopathiae joint infection are reviewed. Recent increases in mortality due to infection with this organism among host animal populations in the Canadian Arctic have generated concern regarding a potential increase in human infections. However, whole genome sequencing (WGS) of the organism was unable to identify a zoonotic origin for this case.

Conclusions

Consideration should be given to E. rhusiopathiae as a cause of joint infections if the appropriate epidemiologic and host risk factors exist. Expanded use of WGS in other potential animal hosts and environmental sources may provide important epidemiologic information in determining the source of human infections.

The Influence of Climate and Livestock Reservoirs on Human Cases of Giardiasis

Giardia duodenalis is an intestinal parasite which causes diarrhoeal illness in people. Zoonotic subtypes found in livestock may contribute to human disease occurrence through runoff of manure into multi-use surface water. This study investigated temporal associations among selected environmental variables and G. duodenalis occurrence in livestock reservoirs on human giardiasis incidence using data collected in the Waterloo Health Region, Ontario, Canada. The study objectives were to: (1) evaluate associations between human cases and environmental variables between 1 June 2006 and 31 December 2013, and (2) evaluate associations between human cases, environmental variables and livestock reservoirs using a subset of this time series, with both analyses controlling for seasonal and long-term trends. Human disease incidence exhibited a seasonal trend but no annual trend. A Poisson multivariable regression model identified an inverse association with water level lagged by 1 month (IRR = 0.10, 95% CI 0.01, 0.85, P < 0.05). Case crossover analysis found varying associations between lagged variables including livestock reservoirs (1 week), mean air temperature (3 weeks), river water level (1 week) and flow rate (1 week), and precipitation (4 weeks). This study contributes to our understanding of epidemiologic relationships influencing human giardiasis cases in Ontario, Canada.

The need for community-led, integrated and innovative monitoring programmes when responding to the health impacts of climate change

In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North.

Uncovering the geographical and host impacts on the classification of Vibrio vulnificus

Vibrio vulnificus causes human sickness throughout the world via the consumption of undercooked seafood or exposure to contaminated water. Previous attempts at phylogenetic analyses of V. vulnificus have proven unsuccessful, mainly due to the poorly understood impact of factors on its divergence. In this study, we used advanced statistical and phylogenetic methods to strengthen the classification of V. vulnificus. This updated classification included the impact of geographical and host factors. The results demonstrate the existence of hierarchies and multidimensional effects in the classification of V. vulnificus, from the molecular level using biotypes, to the distributional level using geographical location, to the adaptational level through host immune response. These findings have implications for the classification of bacteria, bacterial evolution, and public health.

Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections

The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

A veterinary perspective on One Health in the Arctic

Exposure to long-range transported industrial chemicals, climate change and diseases is posing a risk to the overall health and populations of Arctic wildlife. Since local communities are relying on the same marine food web as marine mammals in the Arctic, it requires a One Health approach to understand the holistic ecosystem health including that of humans. Here we collect and identify gaps in the current knowledge of health in the Arctic and present the veterinary perspective of One Health and ecosystem dynamics. The review shows that exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is having multiple organ-system effects across taxa, including impacts on neuroendocrine disruption, immune suppression and decreased bone density among others. Furthermore, the warming Arctic climate is suspected to influence abiotic and biotic long-range transport and exposure pathways of contaminants to the Arctic resulting in increases in POP exposure of both wildlife and human populations. Exposure to vector-borne diseases and zoonoses may increase as well through range expansion and introduction of invasive species. It will be important in the future to investigate the effects of these multiple stressors on wildlife and local people to better predict the individual-level health risks. It is within this framework that One Health approaches offer promising opportunities to survey and pinpoint environmental changes that have effects on wildlife and human health.

Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012

Research shows potential effects of floods on intestinal infections. Baise, a city in Guangxi Province (China) had experienced several floods between 2004 and 2012 due to heavy and constant precipitation. This study aimed to examine the relationship between floods and the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Baise. A mixed generalized additive model and Spearman correlation were applied to analyze the relationship between monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery and 14 flood events with two severity levels. Data collected from 2004 to 2010 were utilized to estimate the parameters, whereas data from 2011 to 2012 were used to validate the model. There were in total 9255 cases of bacillary dysentery included in our analyses. According to the mixed generalized additive model, the relative risks (RR) of moderate and severe floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery were 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16–1.69) and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.61–1.97), respectively. The regression analysis also indicated that the flood duration was negatively associated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery (with RR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.40–0.86). Therfore, this research suggests that floods exert a significant part in enhancing the risk of bacillary dysentery in Baise. Moreover, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than moderate floods. In addition, short-term floods may contribute more to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than a long-term flood. The findings from this research will provide more evidence to reduce health risks related to floods.

Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States

Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The "El Niño Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970-2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States.

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries

Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.

TRANSLATING ECOLOGY, PHYSIOLOGY, BIOCHEMISTRY, AND POPULATION GENETICS RESEARCH TO MEET THE CHALLENGE OF TICK AND TICK-BORNE DISEASES IN NORTH AMERICA

Emerging and re-emerging tick-borne diseases threaten public health and the wellbeing of domestic animals and wildlife globally. The adoption of an evolutionary ecology framework aimed to diminish the impact of tick-borne diseases needs to be part of strategies to protect human and animal populations. We present a review of current knowledge on the adaptation of ticks to their environment, and the impact that global change could have on their geographic distribution in North America. Environmental pressures will affect tick population genetics by selecting genotypes able to withstand new and changing environments and by altering the connectivity and isolation of several tick populations. Research in these areas is particularly lacking in the southern United States and most of Mexico with knowledge gaps on the ecology of these diseases, including a void in the identity of reservoir hosts for several tick-borne pathogens. Additionally, the way in which anthropogenic changes to landscapes may influence tick-borne disease ecology remains to be fully understood. Enhanced knowledge in these areas is needed in order to implement effective and sustainable integrated tick management strategies. We propose to refocus ecology studies with emphasis on metacommunity-based approaches to enable a holistic perspective addressing whole pathogen and host assemblages. Network analyses could be used to develop mechanistic models involving multihost-pathogen communities. An increase in our understanding of the ecology of tick-borne diseases across their geographic distribution will aid in the design of effective area-wide tick control strategies aimed to diminish the burden of pathogens transmitted by ticks.

Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus.

METHODS

With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population.

RESULTS

External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis

BACKGROUND

This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building.

METHODS

The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities.

RESULTS

Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels.

CONCLUSION

Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country.

Blastomycosis in northwestern Ontario, 2004 to 2014

Blastomycosis is an invasive fungal disease caused by Blastomyces dermatitidis and the recently discovered Blastomyces gilchristii. The medical charts of 64 patients with confirmed cases of blastomycosis in northwestern Ontario during a 10-year period (2004 to 2014) were retrospectively reviewed. The number of patients diagnosed with blastomycosis in Ontario was observed to have increased substantially compared with before 1990, when blastomycosis was removed from the list of reportable diseases. Aboriginals were observed to be disproportionately represented in the patient population. Of the patients whose smoking status was known, 71.4% had a history of smoking. 59.4% of patients had underlying comorbidities and a higher comorbidity rate was observed among Aboriginal patients. The case-fatality rate from direct complications of blastomycosis disease was calculated to be 20.3%; this case-fatality rate is the highest ever to be reported in Canada and more than double that of previously published Canadian studies. The clinical characteristics of 64 patients diagnosed with blastomycosis are summarized.

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2012:

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, there have been resurgences and large-scale outbreaks of mumps worldwide. Little evidence is available on the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps. We aimed to explore the effects of meteorological factors on mumps incidence.

METHODS

A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the association between meteorological factors and the mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2012.

RESULTS

Nonlinear relationships between meteorological factors, except sunshine hours, and mumps incidence were observed. The relative risks (RRs) of mean temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure were 1.81 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41 to 2.32), 1.28 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.59), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95) comparing the 99th percentile to the median of their own, respectively. For wind velocity, the RR was 0.70 (95%CI, 0.54 to 0.91) comparing the 1st percentile to the median. The hot effect and cold effect were larger in females than in males, and the hot effect increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and atmospheric pressure might be important predictors of the mumps incidence. Tropical cyclone caused a higher increase in mumps cases. Our findings highlight the need to strengthen the awareness of using protective measures during typhoon days and allocating more attention to the susceptible populations during the summer. The two-dose regimen of mumps vaccine should be included in the National Immunization Program schedule, and the catch-up vaccination campaigns should be promoted among adults.

Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans

The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.

Geographical variability in the likelihood of bloodstream infections due to gram-negative bacteria: correlation with proximity to the equator and health care expenditure

OBJECTIVE

Infections due to Gram-negative bacteria exhibit seasonal trends, with peak infection rates during warmer months. We hypothesized that the likelihood of a bloodstream infection due to Gram-negative bacteria increases with proximity to the equator. We tested this hypothesis and identified geographical, climatic and social factors associated with this variability.

DESIGN

We established a network of 23 international centers in 22 cities.

SETTING

De-identified results of positive blood cultures from 2007-2011 and data sources for geographic, climatic and socioeconomic factors were assembled for each center.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients at the 23 centers with positive blood cultures.

MAIN OUTCOME

Due to variability in the availability of total culture volumes across sites, our primary outcome measure was the fraction of positive blood cultures that yielded Gram-negative bacteria; sources of variability in this outcome measure were explored using meta-regression techniques.

RESULTS

The mean fraction of bacteremia associated with Gram-negative bacteria was 48.4% (range 26.4% to 61.8%). Although not all sites displayed significant seasonality, the overall P-value for seasonal oscillation was significant (P<0.001). In univariate meta-regression models, temperature, latitude, latitude squared, longitude, per capita gross domestic product and percent of gross domestic product spent on healthcare were all associated with the fraction of bacteremia due to Gram-negative bacteria. In multivariable models, only percent of gross domestic product spent on healthcare and distance from the equator (ie. latitude squared) were significantly associated with the fraction of bacteremia due to Gram-negative bacteria.

CONCLUSIONS

The likelihood of bacteremia due to Gram-negative bacteria varies markedly between cities, in a manner that appears to have both geographic (latitude) and socioeconomic (proportion gross domestic product devoted to health spending) determinants. Thus, the optimal approach to initial management of suspected bacteremia may be geographically specific. The rapid emergence of highly antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative pathogens may have geographically specific impacts.

Emerging Vector-Borne Diseases - Incidence through Vectors

Vector-borne diseases use to be a major public health concern only in tropical and subtropical areas, but today they are an emerging threat for the continental and developed countries also. Nowadays, in intercontinental countries, there is a struggle with emerging diseases, which have found their way to appear through vectors. Vector-borne zoonotic diseases occur when vectors, animal hosts, climate conditions, pathogens, and susceptible human population exist at the same time, at the same place. Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in vector-borne infectious diseases and disease outbreaks. It could affect the range and population of pathogens, host and vectors, transmission season, etc. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required. Canine vector-borne diseases represent a complex group of diseases including anaplasmosis, babesiosis, bartonellosis, borreliosis, dirofilariosis, ehrlichiosis, and leishmaniosis. Some of these diseases cause serious clinical symptoms in dogs and some of them have a zoonotic potential with an effect to public health. It is expected from veterinarians in coordination with medical doctors to play a fundamental role at primarily prevention and then treatment of vector-borne diseases in dogs. The One Health concept has to be integrated into the struggle against emerging diseases. During a 4-year period, from 2009 to 2013, a total number of 551 dog samples were analyzed for vector-borne diseases (borreliosis, babesiosis, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis, dirofilariosis, and leishmaniasis) in routine laboratory work. The analysis was done by serological tests – ELISA for borreliosis, dirofilariosis, and leishmaniasis, modified Knott test for dirofilariosis, and blood smear for babesiosis, ehrlichiosis, and anaplasmosis. This number of samples represented 75% of total number of samples that were sent for analysis for different diseases in dogs. Annually, on average more then half of the samples brought to the laboratory to analysis for different infectious diseases are analyzed for vector-borne diseases. In the region of Vojvodina (northern part of Serbia), the following vector-borne infectious diseases have been found in dogs so far borreliosis, babesiosis, dirofilariosis, leishmaniasis, and anaplasmosis.

Health care facilities resilient to climate change impacts

Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator's guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

Pathogenic Landscape of Transboundary Zoonotic Diseases in the Mexico-US Border Along the Rio Grande

Transboundary zoonotic diseases, several of which are vector borne, can maintain a dynamic focus and have pathogens circulating in geographic regions encircling multiple geopolitical boundaries. Global change is intensifying transboundary problems, including the spatial variation of the risk and incidence of zoonotic diseases. The complexity of these challenges can be greater in areas where rivers delineate international boundaries and encompass transitions between ecozones. The Rio Grande serves as a natural border between the US State of Texas and the Mexican States of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. Not only do millions of people live in this transboundary region, but also a substantial amount of goods and people pass through it everyday. Moreover, it occurs over a region that functions as a corridor for animal migrations, and thus links the Neotropic and Nearctic biogeographic zones, with the latter being a known foci of zoonotic diseases. However, the pathogenic landscape of important zoonotic diseases in the south Texas-Mexico transboundary region remains to be fully understood. An international perspective on the interplay between disease systems, ecosystem processes, land use, and human behaviors is applied here to analyze landscape and spatial features of Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Hantavirus disease, Lyme Borreliosis, Leptospirosis, Bartonellosis, Chagas disease, human Babesiosis, and Leishmaniasis. Surveillance systems following the One Health approach with a regional perspective will help identifying opportunities to mitigate the health burden of those diseases on human and animal populations. It is proposed that the Mexico-US border along the Rio Grande region be viewed as a continuum landscape where zoonotic pathogens circulate regardless of national borders.

Combining forces--the use of Landsat TM satellite imagery, soil parameter information, and multiplex PCR to detect Coccidioides immitis growth sites in Kern County, California

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal disease acquired through the inhalation of spores of Coccidioides spp., which afflicts primarily humans and other mammals. It is endemic to areas in the southwestern United States, including the San Joaquin Valley portion of Kern County, California, our region of interest (ROI). Recently, incidence of coccidioidomycosis, also known as valley fever, has increased significantly, and several factors including climate change have been suggested as possible drivers for this observation. Up to date details about the ecological niche of C. immitis have escaped full characterization. In our project, we chose a three-step approach to investigate this niche: 1) We examined Landsat-5-Thematic-Mapper multispectral images of our ROI by using training pixels at a 750 m × 750 m section of Sharktooth Hill, a site confirmed to be a C. immitis growth site, to implement a Maximum Likelihood Classification scheme to map out the locations that could be suitable to support the growth of the pathogen; 2) We used the websoilsurvey database of the US Department of Agriculture to obtain soil parameter data; and 3) We investigated soil samples from 23 sites around Bakersfield, California using a multiplex Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based method to detect the pathogen. Our results indicated that a combination of satellite imagery, soil type information, and multiplex PCR are powerful tools to predict and identify growth sites of C. immitis. This approach can be used as a basis for systematic sampling and investigation of soils to detect Coccidioides spp.

Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Impacts of floods on dysentery in Xinxiang city, China, during 2004-2010: a time-series Poisson analysis

Background

Xinxiang, a city in Henan Province, suffered from frequent floods due to persistent and heavy precipitation from 2004 to 2010. In the same period, dysentery was a common public health problem in Xinxiang, with the proportion of reported cases being the third highest among all the notified infectious diseases.

Objectives

We focused on dysentery disease consequences of different degrees of floods and examined the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery on the basis of longitudinal data during the study period.

Design

A time-series Poisson regression model was conducted to examine the relationship between 10 times different degrees of floods and the monthly morbidity of dysentery from 2004 to 2010 in Xinxiang. Relative risks (RRs) of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery were calculated in this paper. In addition, we estimated the attributable contributions of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery.

Results

A total of 7591 cases of dysentery were notified in Xinxiang during the study period. The effect of floods on dysentery was shown with a 0-month lag. Regression analysis showed that the risk of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.42–1.670) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.56–1.94), respectively. The attributable risk proportions (ARPs) of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery were 35.53 and 42.48%, respectively.

Conclusions

This study confirms that floods have significantly increased the risk of dysentery in the study area. In addition, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the morbidity of dysentery than moderate floods. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of dysentery epidemics after floods.

Assessing the origin of and potential for international spread of chikungunya virus from the Caribbean

BACKGROUND

For the first time, an outbreak of chikungunya has been reported in the Americas. Locally acquired infections have been confirmed in fourteen Caribbean countries and dependent territories, Guyana and French Guiana, in which a large number of North American travelers vacation. Should some travelers become infected with chikungunya virus, they could potentially introduce it into the United States, where there are competent Aedes mosquito vectors, with the possibility of local transmission.

METHODS

We analyzed historical data on airline travelers departing areas of the Caribbean and South America, where locally acquired cases of chikungunya have been confirmed as of May 12th, 2014. The final destinations of travelers departing these areas between May and July 2012 were determined and overlaid on maps of the reported distribution of Aedes aeygpti and albopictus mosquitoes in the United States, to identify potential areas at risk of autochthonous transmission.

RESULTS

The United States alone accounted for 52.1% of the final destinations of all international travelers departing chikungunya indigenous areas of the Caribbean between May and July 2012. Cities in the United States with the highest volume of air travelers were New York City, Miami and San Juan (Puerto Rico). Miami and San Juan were high travel-volume cities where Aedes aeygpti or albopictus are reported and where climatic conditions could be suitable for autochthonous transmission.

CONCLUSION

The rapidly evolving outbreak of chikungunya in the Caribbean poses a growing risk to countries and areas linked by air travel, including the United States where competent Aedes mosquitoes exist. The risk of chikungunya importation into the United States may be elevated following key travel periods in the spring, when large numbers of North American travelers typically vacation in the Caribbean.

Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios

BACKGROUND

Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.