Missing covariate data in clinical research: when and when not to use the missing-indicator method for analysis

County-level Structural Vulnerabilities in Maternal Health and Geographic Variation in Infant Mortality

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether community factors that differentially affect the health of pregnant people contribute to geographic differences in infant mortality across the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study sought to characterize the association of a novel composite measure of county-level maternal structural vulnerabilities, the Maternal Vulnerability Index (MVI), with risk of infant death. We evaluated 11,456,232 singleton infants born at 22 0/7 through 44 6/7 weeks' gestation from 2012 to 2014. Using county-level MVI, which ranges from 0-100, multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models quantified associations per 20-point increment in MVI, with odds of death clustered at the county level and adjusted for state, maternal, and infant covariates. Secondary analyses stratified by the social, physical, and health exposures that comprise the overall MVI score. Outcome was also stratified by cause of death.

RESULTS

Odds of death were higher among infants from counties with the greatest maternal vulnerability (0.62% in highest quintile vs 0.32% in lowest quintile, [p<0.001]). Odds of death increased 6% per 20-point increment in MVI (aOR: 1.06, 95% CI 1.04, 1.07). The effect estimate was highest with theme of mental health and substance use (aOR 1.08; 95% CI 1.06, 1.09). Increasing vulnerability was associated with six of seven causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Community-level social, physical, and healthcare determinants indicative of maternal vulnerability may explain some of the geographic variation in infant death, regardless of cause of death. Interventions targeted to county-specific maternal vulnerabilities may reduce infant mortality.

Link between remnant cholesterol and the reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes: a 5-year cohort study

Despite the clear association between remnant cholesterol (RC)and diabetes risk, no study to date has examined the relationship between RC and reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia. This retrospective cohort study included a total of 15,023 patients with prediabetes who underwent a physical examination between 2010 and 2016. The link between initial RC levels and the reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia was analyzed using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Additionally, the study explored the possible relationship between RC and the probability of returning normoglycemia by applying Cox proportional hazards regression models with cubic spline functions. To address competing risks, a multivariate Cox regression analysis was undertaken, treating the onset of diabetes as a competing risk event for reversing prediabetes to normoglycemia. Additionally, the study incorporated extensive subgroup analyses alongside multiple sensitivity analyses, enhancing the reliability and robustness of the results. After adjusting for covariates, the findings indicated that RC was inversely associated with the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia (per 5 mg/dL increase, HR = 0.918, 95% CI 0.909-0.927). The analysis also revealed a nonlinear relationship between RC and normoglycemia reversion, with an inflection point at 51.08 mg/dL. For RC values below this inflection point (RC < 50.08 mg/dL), the HR for the probability of returning to normoglycemia was 0.907 (95% CI 0.897-0.917 per 5 mg/dL). Additionally, the competing risks model demonstrated a negative relationship between RC and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia (SHR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.91-0.93). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness and stability of these results. This study demonstrated a negative and non-linear association between RC and the probability of reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes. By actively intervening to reduce RC levels, at least to below 51.08 mg/dL, further reduction of RC may significantly increase the probability of returning to normoglycemia from prediabetes.

Estimated timing of the first menstrual period and dietary and nutritional correlates of menarche among urban school-going adolescents in four sub-Saharan African sites

Characterizing the timing of menarche and the factors that are associated with it is important for understanding a population's reproductive health needs and long-term health trajectories. We estimated the age at the menstrual onset among adolescent girls and the association between dietary and nutritional factors and menarche in four sub-Saharan African urban sites. We used cross-sectional school-based data from 2307 female adolescents aged 10-14 years collected by the Africa Research, Implementation Science, and Education (ARISE) Network in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Khartoum, Sudan; and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Logit models were used to estimate the median age at menarche at each site. Associations between menarche and BMI-for-age, stunting, dietary quality and food insecurity across settings were assessed using Poisson regression models adjusted for country and school levels. The estimated median age at menarche was 13.1 years (95% confidence interval: 12.7, 13.5) in Ouagadougou; 12.9 (12.6, 13.2) in Addis Ababa; 13.3 (12.7, 13.6) in Khartoum; and 13.2 (12.3, 14.0) in Dar es Salaam. Between 18% and 49% of the girls in each setting had already menstruated. Based on the pooled multivariable models, underweight participants were 42% less likely (adjusted prevalence ratio [PR] 0.58 [0.44, 0.77]) to have experienced menarche in comparison to normal-weight individuals. The likelihood of experiencing menarche increased for overweight [PR 1.47 (1.30,1.66)] and obese [PR 1.57 (1.35,1.82)] in comparison to normal-weight girls. Those stunted were 47% less likely to have experienced menarche [PR 0.53 (0.41, 0.69)] than their nonstunted counterparts. A lower likelihood of menarche among those experiencing moderate/severe hunger when compared to those with no/little hunger was also observed (PR 0.78 [0.63,0.96]). No evidence of association with dietary quality was found. Further research is needed to strengthen the body of evidence and inform evidence-based initiatives in low- and middle-income settings.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Apixaban, Rivaroxaban, and Warfarin in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation : A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Apixaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin have shown benefit for preventing major ischemic events, albeit with increased bleeding risk, among patients in the general population with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, data are scarce in patients with cirrhosis and AF.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness and safety of apixaban versus rivaroxaban and versus warfarin in patients with cirrhosis and AF.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Two U.S. claims data sets (Medicare and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database [2013 to 2022]).

PARTICIPANTS

1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched patients with cirrhosis and nonvalvular AF initiating use of apixaban, rivaroxaban, or warfarin.

MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcomes included ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and major hemorrhage (intracranial hemorrhage or major gastrointestinal bleeding). Database-specific and pooled PS-matched rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years (PY) and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were estimated, controlling for 104 preexposure covariates.

RESULTS

Rivaroxaban initiators had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhagic events than apixaban initiators (RD, 33.1 per 1000 PY [95% CI, 12.9 to 53.2 per 1000 PY]; HR, 1.47 [CI, 1.11 to 1.94]) but no significant differences in rates of ischemic events or death. Consistently higher rates of major hemorrhage were found with rivaroxaban across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Warfarin initiators also had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhage than apixaban initiators (RD, 26.1 per 1000 PY [CI, 6.8 to 45.3 per 1000 PY]; HR, 1.38 [CI, 1.03 to 1.84]), particularly hemorrhagic stroke (RD, 9.7 per 1000 PY [CI, 2.2 to 17.2 per 1000 PY]; HR, 2.85 [CI, 1.24 to 6.59]).

LIMITATION

Nonrandomized treatment selection.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with cirrhosis and nonvalvular AF, initiators of rivaroxaban versus apixaban had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhage and similar rates of ischemic events and death. Initiation of warfarin versus apixaban also contributed to significantly higher rates of major hemorrhagic events, including hemorrhagic stroke.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Inverse relationship between LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and atrial fibrillation in chronic kidney disease patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is more prevalent in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) compared to the general population. While a potential inverse correlation between lipid levels and AF has been proposed, it remains unclear if this relationship applies to CKD patients. This study examined the connection between the ratio of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C/HDL-C) and the likelihood of AF in CKD patients. Data was gathered from 21,091 consecutive CKD patients between 2006 and December 31, 2015. We examined the link between the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and AF in CKD patients through binary logistic regression, as well as various sensitivity and subgroup analyses. The dataset that backs up these analyses is available at: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0230189 . Of the 21,091 CKD patients, 211 (1.00%) were diagnosed with AF. The cohort, predominantly male (79.93%), had a mean age of 60.89 ± 10.05 years. The mean LDL-C/HDL-C ratio was 1.39 ± 0.35. After adjusting for covariates, a significant inverse association was observed between the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and the incidence of AF in CKD patients (OR = 0.422, 95% CI 0.273-0.652, P = 0.00010). The robustness of these findings was confirmed through sensitivity analysis. Subgroup analysis revealed a strong correlation between the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and incident AF in patients without hypertension (HR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.15-0.45). Conversely, this association was absent in hypertensive patients (HR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.54-2.17). Our research shows an independent inverse correlation between the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and the risk of AF in CKD patients. It is advised to refrain from excessively aggressive reduction of LDL levels in CKD patients, as this could elevate the risk of developing AF.

Sex differences in the association between metabolic score for insulin resistance and the reversion to normoglycemia in adults with prediabetes: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The metabolic score for insulin resistance (MetS-IR) has become a valid indicator to evaluate insulin resistance. Our investigation sought gender differences in the correlation between MetS-IR and the reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemic status.

METHODS

This retrospective research, carried out in 32 areas across 11 cities with several centers in China, encompassed 15,423 participants with prediabetes. We employed a Cox proportional hazards regression model to examine the link between MetS-IR and the reversion to normoglycemic status. We also applied cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting to detect non-linear relationships. Additionally, we embarked on a range of sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The study included 15,423 participants, with 10,009 males (64.90%) and 5,414 females (35.10%). The average follow-up time was 2.96 ± 0.93 years, and 6,623 individuals (42.94%) reversed normoglycemia. A non-linear correlation was discovered among MetS-IR and reversion to normoglycemic status in men, with a turning point at 55.48. For a one-unit rise in MetS-IR below this point, the chance of reversal to normoglycemic levels declined by 3% (HR = 0.97, 95% CI:0.96-0.97, P < 0.0001). In women, the association was linear, with every unit rise in MetS-IR leading to a 3% reduction in transitioning to normal glycemic levels. (HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.97-0.98, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

A negative correlation was discovered between MetS-IR and reversion to normoglycemic status in adults with prediabetes. Specifically, a non-linear association was observed for males, while females exhibited a linear correlation.

Triglyceride-glucose index is associated with the risk of impaired fasting glucose in Chinese elderly individuals

The association between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in elderly individuals remains uncertain. Our study aimed to explore the association between the TyG index and the risk of future IFG in this population. This retrospective cohort study included 17,746 elderly individuals over 60. In this population, Cox regression models proportional to hazards, along with smooth curve fitting and cubic spline functions, were employed to examine the association between the baseline TyG index and the risk of IFG. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity were also performed to ensure the robustness of the study findings. After adjusting for covariates, a positive association between the TyG index and the risk of IFG was found (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.27-1.60, P < 0.0001). The likelihood of IFG rose steadily as the TyG index quartiles (from Q1 to Q4) increased, with Q4 demonstrating a 62% elevated risk compared to Q1 (adjusted HR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.37-1.90). Additionally, we found the association between TyG index and risk of IFG was a linear. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses confirmed the stability of the results. Our study observed a linear association between the TyG index and the development of IFG in elderly Chinese individuals. Recognizing this association can help clinicians identify high-risk individuals and implement targeted interventions to reduce their risk of progressing to diabetes.

Factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with miliary tuberculosis: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Miliary tuberculosis (TB) is a fatal disease; thus, prompt diagnosis and immediate intervention are indispensable. However, the risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with miliary TB remain unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with miliary TB using a Japanese nationwide inpatient database.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with miliary TB between July 2010 and March 2022 were enrolled from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with miliary TB.

RESULTS

In total, 2817 patients with miliary TB and 637 (22.6%) in-hospital deaths were identified. Older age; male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.64); low body weight (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.14-1.76); altered consciousness; a low Barthel index score; chronic respiratory failure (OR, 3.85; 95% CI, 1.61-9.19); hematologic malignancy (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.26-5.35); conditions requiring oxygenation (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.37-2.10) or high-flow nasal cannula therapy (OR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.01-7.62); or the administration of vasopressors (OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.39-3.63) or antibiotics (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.14-1.74) were associated with higher in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified the factors affecting in-hospital mortality among patients with miliary TB. The findings of this study will aid clinicians in identifying patients who may benefit from aggressive therapeutic interventions.

Nonlinear relationship between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality in ICU acute respiratory failure patients: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence exists regarding the link between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality in acute respiratory failure (ARF) patients. Thus, this study aims to investigate this association among ICU patients experiencing acute respiratory failure.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study across multiple centers, utilizing data from the US eICU-CRD v2.0 database covering 22,262 patients with ARF in the ICU from 2014 to 2015. Our aim was to investigate the correlation between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality using binary logistic regression, subgroup analyses, and smooth curve fitting.

RESULTS

The 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 19.73% (4393 out of 22,262), with a median platelet count of 213 × 109/L. After adjusting for covariates, our analysis revealed an inverse association between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.99, 0.99). Subgroup analyses supported the robustness of these findings. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship was identified between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality, with the inflection point at 120 × 109/L. Below the inflection point, the effect size (OR) was 0.89 (0.87, 0.91), indicating a significant association. However, beyond this point, the relationship was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

This study establishes a clear negative association between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality among ICU patients with ARF. Furthermore, we have identified a nonlinear relationship with saturation effects, indicating that among ICU patients with acute respiratory failure, the lowest 30-day in-hospital mortality rate occurs when the baseline platelet count is approximately 120 × 109/L.

The relationship between cumulative risk and health-related quality of life in youth with sickle cell disease: Moderating effects of secondary control engagement coping

BACKGROUND

Youth with sickle cell disease (SCD) often experience low health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Engagement in resilience-promoting processes, such as secondary control engagement (SCE) coping, or adapting to stressors, may be linked to contextual risk factors (e.g., poverty status). This study aims to illuminate relationships between a cumulative risk index (CRI), SCE coping, and HRQOL in youth with SCD and test whether SCE coping moderates the relationship between CRI and HRQOL.

PROCEDURE

Participants in this cross-sectional study included 63 youth ages 8-18 with SCD. Participants completed measures to assess SCE coping use (Responses to Stress Questionnaire) and HRQOL (PedsQL SCD Module). Six variables from the electronic medical record were compiled in a CRI. Correlational and regression analyses examined relationships between primary variables and moderating effects of SCE coping, respectively.

RESULTS

Model results show that SCE coping and CRI explain variation in HRQOL (p = .001), and a significant interaction exists between SCE and CRI (β = -.29, p = .02), with a stronger inverse relationship between CRI and HRQOL for higher SCE values. This suggests that lower CRI is associated with greater HRQOL for those with higher SCE coping relative to lower SCE coping.

CONCLUSIONS

SCE coping may selectively benefit children with SCD experiencing lower cumulative risk, warranting encouragement of this strategy in clinical settings. Findings do not support SCE coping benefits for youth with higher risk, suggesting that the strategy may not be useful when risk-related stressors are especially pervasive; alternative protective factors should be identified for this risk group.

The impact of a medically directed student registered nurse anesthesia staffing model on Postprocedural patient outcomes

STUDY OBJECTIVE

In 2018, the American Society of Anesthesiologists stated that student registered nurse anesthetists (SRNAs) "are not yet fully qualified anesthesia personnel." It remains unclear, however, whether postprocedural outcomes are affected by SRNAs providing anesthesia care under the medical direction of anesthesiologists, as compared with medically directed anesthesiology fellows or residents, or certified registered nurse anesthetists (CRNAs). We therefore aimed to examine whether medically directed SRNAs serving as in-room anesthesia providers impact surgical outcomes.

DESIGN

Retrospective, matched-cohort analysis.

SETTING

Adult patients (≥18 years old) undergoing inpatient surgery between 2000 and 2017 at a tertiary academic medical center.

PATIENTS

15,365 patients exclusively cared for by medically directed SRNAs were matched to 15,365 cared for by medically directed CRNAs, anesthesiology residents, and/or fellows.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary composite outcome was postoperative occurrence of in-hospital mortality and six categories of major morbidities (infectious, bleeding, serious cardiac, gastrointestinal, respiratory, and urinary complications). In-hospital mortality was analyzed as the secondary outcome.

MAIN RESULTS

In all, 30,730 cases were matched using propensity score matching to control for potential confounding. The primary outcome was identified in 2295 (7.5%) cases (7.5% with exclusive medically directed SRNAs vs 7.4% with medically directed CRNAs, residents and/or fellows; relative risk, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94-1.11). Thus, our effort to determine noninferiority (10% difference in relative risk) with other providers was inconclusive (P = .07). However, the medically directed SRNA group (0.8% [118]) was found to be noninferior (P < .001) to the matched group (1.0% [156]) on in-hospital mortality (relative risk, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Among 30,730 patients undergoing inpatient surgery at a single hospital, findings were inconclusive regarding whether exclusive medically directed SRNAs as in-room providers were noninferior to other providers. The use of medically directed SRNAs under this staffing model should be subject to further review. Clinical Trial and Registry URL: Not applicable.

Nonlinear association of fibrinogen levels with functional prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Fibrinogen, essential in primary hemostasis, platelet aggregation, and leukocyte-endothelial interactions, is also associated with a heightened risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). However, its influence on AIS patient outcomes is unclear. This study examines the correlation between fibrinogen levels and the risk of unfavorable outcomes three months post-AIS.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted in Korea. The sample consisted of 1851 AIS patients who received treatment at a Korean hospital between January 2010 and December 2016. Statistical models were established to understand the relationship between fibrinogen levels(mg/dL) and unfavorable outcomes(mRs ≥ 3), including logistic regression models, Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and smooth curve fitting (penalized splines). The log-likelihood ratio test has been utilized to evaluate the best fit. To ensure the robustness of the results, sensitivity analyses were conducted by reanalyzing the relationship after excluding participants with TG > 200 mg/dl and BMI > 25 kg/m2. Subgroup analyses were also performed to assess whether influencing factors modify the association between fibrinogen levels and unfavorable outcomes.

RESULTS

After adjusting for multiple covariates including age, BMI, sex, LDL-c, TG, HGB, HDL-c, BUN, FPG, ALB, PLT, AF, hypertension, smoking, DM, mRs score at admission, the binary logistic regression model demonstrated revealed a significant positive association between fibrinogen levels and the risk of unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients (OR = 1.215, 95% CI: 1.032-1.429, p = 0.019). Sensitivity analyses supported these findings, with similar ORs observed in subsets of patients with TG < 200 mg/dL (OR = 1.221, 95% CI: 1.036-1.440) and BMI < 25 kg/m2 (OR = 1.259, 95% CI: 1.051-1.509). Additionally, the relationship between fibrinogen levels and outcomes was nonlinear, with a critical threshold of 2.74 g/L. Below the inflection point, the OR for unfavorable outcomes was 0.666 ((95% CI: 0.360, 1.233, p = 0.196), whereas above it, the OR increased to 1.374 (95% CI: 1.138, 1.659).

CONCLUSIONS

This study has provided evidence of a positive and nonlinear correlation between fibrinogen levels and 3-month poor functional outcomes in patients with AIS. When fibrinogen levels exceeded 2.74 g/L, a significant and positive association was observed with the risk of poor outcomes. This study provides a further reference for optimizing rehabilitation exercises and facilitating clinical counseling in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Misstatements, misperceptions, and mistakes in controlling for covariates in observational research

We discuss 12 misperceptions, misstatements, or mistakes concerning the use of covariates in observational or nonrandomized research. Additionally, we offer advice to help investigators, editors, reviewers, and readers make more informed decisions about conducting and interpreting research where the influence of covariates may be at issue. We primarily address misperceptions in the context of statistical management of the covariates through various forms of modeling, although we also emphasize design and model or variable selection. Other approaches to addressing the effects of covariates, including matching, have logical extensions from what we discuss here but are not dwelled upon heavily. The misperceptions, misstatements, or mistakes we discuss include accurate representation of covariates, effects of measurement error, overreliance on covariate categorization, underestimation of power loss when controlling for covariates, misinterpretation of significance in statistical models, and misconceptions about confounding variables, selecting on a collider, and p value interpretations in covariate-inclusive analyses. This condensed overview serves to correct common errors and improve research quality in general and in nutrition research specifically.

Beer taxes associate with lower alcohol and cigarette use; cigarette taxes associate with lower cigarette but higher alcohol use

Background: There is a yet unmet opportunity to utilize data on taxes and individual behaviors to yield insight for analyzing studies involving alcohol and cigarette use.Objectives: To inform the direction and strength of their mutual associations by leveraging the fact that taxation can affect individual consumption, but individual consumption cannot affect taxation.Methods: We linked state-level data on cigarette and beer taxes in 2009-2020 with individual-level data on self-reported current cigarette and alcohol use from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a telephone survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that is representative of the population of each state in the United States. We constructed linear and logistic models to examine associations between a $1 increase in cigarette taxes per pack and a $1 increase in beer taxes per gallon and self-reported cigarette use and alcohol consumption (assessed as any current intake, average drinks/day, heavy drinking, and binge drinking), adjusting for survey year and individual characteristics.Results: Among 2,968,839,352 respondents (49% male), a $1 increase in beer taxes was associated with .003 (95% confidence interval [CI] -.013, .008) fewer drinks/day and lower odds of any drinking (odds ratio [OR] = .81 95%CI .80, .83), heavy drinking (OR = .96 95%CI .93, .99), binge drinking (OR = .82 95%CI .80, .83), and smoking (OR = .98 95%CI .96, 1.00). In contrast, a $1 increase in cigarette taxes was associated with lower odds of smoking (OR = .94 95%CI .94, .95) but .007 (95%CI .005, .010) more drinks/day, and higher odds of any drinking (OR = 1.10 95%CI 1.10, 1.11), heavy drinking (OR = 1.02 95%CI 1.01, 1.02), and binge drinking (OR = .82 95%CI .80, .83).Conclusion: Higher beer taxes were associated with lower odds of drinking and smoking, but higher cigarette taxes were associated with lower odds of smoking and higher alcohol consumption. These results suggest that alcohol intake may be a determinant of cigarette use rather than cigarette use as a determinant of alcohol intake.

Endobronchial silicone spigot in prolonged air leaks: Nationwide study on outcomes and risk factors for treatment failure

BACKGROUND

The endobronchial silicone spigot, also known as the endobronchial Watanabe spigot, is used in bronchoscopic interventions to manage prolonged pulmonary air leakage. However, the outcomes of this procedure have not been thoroughly investigated.

METHODS

Using a Japanese national inpatient database from April 2014 to March 2022, we assessed the clinical characteristics and outcomes of all eligible patients who received the endobronchial spigot. We also investigated risk factors associated with treatment failure. Treatment failure was defined as in-hospital death or the need for surgery after bronchial occlusion.

RESULTS

We analyzed data of 1095 patients who underwent bronchial occlusion using the endobronchial spigot. Among them, 252 patients (23.0%) died during hospitalization, and 403 patients (36.8%) experienced treatment failure. Factors associated with treatment failure included age between 85 and 94 years (odds ratio [OR] 1.83; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.04-3.21); male sex (OR 2.43; 95% CI, 1.44-4.11); low Barthel index score; comorbidities of interstitial pneumonia (OR 1.71; 95% CI, 1.18-2.48); antibiotics treatment (OR 1.45; 95% CI, 1.02-2.07); steroids treatment (OR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.07-2.36); and surgery prior to bronchial occlusion (OR 2.08; 95% CI, 1.29-3.35). In contrast, pleurodesis after bronchial occlusion (OR 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32-0.75), and admission to high-volume hospitals were inversely associated with treatment failure (OR 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

The endobronchial Watanabe spigot could be a nonsurgical treatment option for patients with prolonged pulmonary air leaks. Our findings will help identify patients who may benefit from such bronchial interventions.

Development and external validation of a novel score for predicting postoperative 30‑day mortality in tumor craniotomy patients: A cross‑sectional diagnostic study

The identification of patients with craniotomy at high risk for postoperative 30-day mortality may contribute to achieving targeted delivery of interventions. The present study aimed to develop a personalized nomogram and scoring system for predicting the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality in such patients. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, 18,642 patients with craniotomy were stratified into a training cohort (n=7,800; year of surgery, 2012-2013) and an external validation cohort (n=10,842; year of surgery, 2014-2015). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was used to select the most important variables among the candidate variables. Furthermore, a stepwise logistic regression model was established to screen out the risk factors based on the predictors chosen by the LASSO model. The model and a nomogram were constructed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plot analysis were used to assess the model's discrimination ability and accuracy. The associated risk factors were categorized according to clinical cutoff points to create a scoring model for postoperative 30-day mortality. The total score was divided into four risk categories: Extremely high, high, intermediate and low risk. The postoperative 30-day mortality rates were 2.43 and 2.58% in the training and validation cohort, respectively. A simple nomogram and scoring system were developed for predicting the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality according to the white blood cell count; hematocrit and blood urea nitrogen levels; age range; functional health status; and incidence of disseminated cancer cells. The ROC AUC of the nomogram was 0.795 (95% CI: 0.764 to 0.826) in the training cohort and it was 0.738 (95% CI: 0.7091 to 0.7674) in the validation cohort. The calibration demonstrated a perfect fit between the predicted 30-day mortality risk and the observed 30-day mortality risk. Low, intermediate, high and extremely high risk statuses for 30-day mortality were associated with total scores of (-1.5 to -1), (-0.5 to 0.5), (1 to 2) and (2.5 to 9), respectively. A personalized nomogram and scoring system for predicting postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients who underwent craniotomy were developed and validated, and individuals at high risk of 30-day mortality were able to be identified.

Active and passive smoking and breast cancer in Japan: a pooled analysis of nine population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies have shown inconsistent results regarding the link between smoking and breast cancer risk, despite the biological plausibility of a positive association.

METHODS

Participants were 166 611 women from nine prospective cohort studies in Japan which launched in 1984-1994 and followed for 8-22 years. Information on smoking and secondhand smoke was obtained through self-administered baseline questionnaires. Breast cancer was defined as code C50 according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition or the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. After adjusting for several potential confounders, relative risks for breast cancer were calculated in the individual studies according to the current or previous status of active and passive smoking using Cox regression, followed by a summary estimate of hazard ratios using random-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 60 441 participants who reported being premenopausal and 106 170 who reported being postmenopausal at baseline, 897 and 1168 developed breast cancer during follow-up, respectively. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had a higher risk of developing breast cancer before the age of 50 years. In addition, ever smokers who started smoking at 30 years of age or younger, or who started smoking before first childbirth, had a higher risk of developing breast cancer before the age of 50 years. No association between adulthood or childhood exposure to secondhand smoke and breast cancer was observed.

CONCLUSION

Smoking may increase the risk of premenopausal breast cancer, and smoking earlier in life might be especially harmful. The impact of secondhand smoke needs further investigation.

Psychiatric admissions in young people after expiration of criminal justice supervision in Australia: a retrospective data linkage study

BACKGROUND

Mental health services are available for young people involved with the criminal justice system. However, they have unmet mental health needs after the expiration of criminal justice supervision.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence rate and identify predictors of psychiatric hospitalisations within 24 months after the expiration of criminal justice supervision among young people involved with the New South Wales (NSW) criminal justice system.

METHODS

Retrospective data from 1556 individuals aged 14-22 years who participated in four surveys of justice-involved young people in NSW were harmonised and linked to four NSW data collections. We calculated the incidence rates of psychiatric hospitalisations within 24 months postsupervision and identified predictors of these hospitalisations using a competing risks regression analysis.

RESULTS

Within 24 months postsupervision, 11.4% had a psychiatric hospitalisation compared with 3.5% during supervision. 20.7% of those admitted had a known history of mental illness and engaged with community-based and outpatient mental health services postsupervision. Predictors of psychiatric hospitalisations were: female sex (adjusted subdistribution HR (asHR) 1.84, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.73); previous incarceration (highest asHR for ≥4 episodes 1.67, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.78); head injury (asHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.21); personality disorder (asHR 3.66, 95% CI 2.06 to 6.48) and alcohol and substance use disorder (asHR 1.89, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.77).

CONCLUSION

Justice-involved youth have higher rates of psychiatric admissions after criminal justice supervision. Engagement with mental health services postsupervision is important in addressing emerging or persisting mental health needs.

A non-linear connection between the total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and stroke risk: a retrospective cohort study from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

The connection between total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) ratio and stroke risk is controversial. This study aims to examine the connection between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke in middle-aged and older individuals who are part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).

METHODS

This study conducted a retrospective cohort analysis, enrolling a total of 10,184 participants who met the designated criteria from CHARLS between 2011 and 2012. We then used the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to analyze the relationship between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke risk. Using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting, we were able to identify the non-linear relationship between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke occurrence. The sensitivity and subgroup analyses were also performed to investigate the connection between TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke.

RESULTS

This study revealed a statistically significant association between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke risk in subjects aged 45 years or older after adjusting for risk factors (HR: 1.05, 95%CI 1.00-1.10, P = 0.0410). Furthermore, a non-linear connection between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke risk was detected, with a TC/HDL-C ratio inflection point of 3.71. We identified a significant positive connection between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke risk, when the TC/HDL-C ratio was less than 3.71 (HR: 1.25, 95%CI 1.07-1.45, P = 0.0039). However, their connection was not significant when the TC/HDL-C ratio exceeded 3.71 (HR: 1.00, 95%CI 0.94-1.06, P = 0.9232). The sensitivity analysis and subgroup analyses revealed that our findings were well-robust.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated a positive, non-linear connection between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke risk in middle-aged and older individuals. There was a significant positive connection between the TC/HDL-C ratio and stroke risk, when the TC/HDL-C ratio was less than 3.71. The current research can be used as a guideline to support clinician consultation and optimize stroke prevention measures for middle-aged and older adults.

Association between alanine aminotransferase to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a retrospective cohort study in lean Chinese individuals

There is limited research on the association between the alanine aminotransferase to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (ALT/HDL-C) ratio and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The purpose of the current research was to look into the connection between the ALT/HDL-C ratio and the risk of NAFLD in lean Chinese individuals. Between January 2010 and December 2014, 11,975 non-obese people participated in this prospective cohort research. The relationship between the ALT/HDL-C ratio and the risk of developing NAFLD was assessed using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model, Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analyses. The ALT/HDL-C ratio's potential value as a NAFLD prognostic marker was to be evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. A total of 5419 (45.253%) women comprised the research's participant population, and the research participants' average age was 43.278 ± 14.941 years. The ALT/HDL-C ratio was 11.607 (7.973-17.422) at the median (interquartile ranges). 2087 (17.428%) patients had NAFLD diagnoses throughout a median follow-up of 24.967 months. The study's findings demonstrated a positive connection between the ALT/AHDL-C ratio and the incident NAFLD (HR = 1.037, 95% CI: 1.031-1.042) when adjusting for relevant factors. The ALT/HDL-C ratio and NAFLD risk had a nonlinear connection, with 12.963 as the ratio's inflection point. Effect sizes (HR) were 1.023 (95% CI: 1.017-1.029) and 1.204 (95% CI: 1.171-1.237), respectively, on the right and left sides of the inflection point. The sensitivity analysis also showed how reliable our findings were. According to subgroup analysis, those with BMI < 24 kg/m2 and DBP < 90 mmHg had a stronger correlation between the ALT/HDL-C ratio and NAFLD risk. The current study shows a positive and non-linear connection between the ALT/HDL-C ratio and NAFLD risk in lean Chinese individuals. When the ALT/HDL-C ratio is less than 12.963, it is significantly linked to NAFLD. Therefore, from a therapy standpoint, it is advised to keep the ALT/HDL-C ratio less than the inflection point.

Preterm Birth Risk and Maternal Nativity, Ethnicity, and Race

Importance

Immigrant birthing people have lower rates of preterm birth compared with their US-born counterparts. This advantage and associated racial and ethnic disparities across the gestational age spectrum have not been examined nationally.

Objective

To examine associations of maternal nativity, ethnicity, and race with preterm birth.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used birth certificates from the National Vital Statistics System to analyze in-hospital liveborn singleton births in the US between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from January to June 2023.

Exposure

Mutually exclusive nativity, ethnicity, and race subgroups were constructed using nativity (defined as US-born or non-US-born), ethnicity (defined as Hispanic or non-Hispanic), and race (defined as American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, White, or other [individuals who selected other race or more than 1 race]).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome of interest was preterm birth. Modified Poisson and multinomial logistic regression models quantified relative risk (RR) of preterm birth overall (<37 weeks' gestation) and by gestational category (late preterm: 34-36 weeks' gestation; moderately preterm: 29-33 weeks' gestation; and extremely preterm: <29 weeks' gestation) for each maternal nativity, ethnicity, and race subgroup compared with the largest group, US-born non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White) birthing people. The RR of preterm birth overall and by category was also measured within each racial and ethnic group by nativity. Models were adjusted for maternal demographic and medical covariates, birth year, and birth state.

Results

A total of 34 468 901 singleton live births of birthing people were analyzed, with a mean (SD) age at delivery of 28 (6) years. All nativity, ethnicity, and race subgroups had an increased adjusted risk of preterm birth compared with US-born White birthing people except for non-US-born White (adjusted RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84-0.86) and Hispanic (adjusted RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.98) birthing people. All racially and ethnically minoritized groups had increased adjusted risks of extremely preterm birth compared with US-born White birthing people. Non-US-born individuals had a decreased risk of preterm birth within each subgroup except non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander individuals, in which immigrants had significantly increased risk of overall (adjusted RR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14), moderately (adjusted RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.92-1.30), and late (adjusted RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.22) preterm birth than their US-born counterparts.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this cohort study suggest heterogeneity of preterm birth across maternal nativity, ethnicity, and race and gestational age categories. Understanding these patterns could aid the design of targeted preterm birth interventions and policies, especially for birthing people typically underrepresented in research.

Relationship between glycated hemoglobin levels and three-month outcomes in acute ischemic stroke patients with or without diabetes: a prospective Korean cohort study

OBJECTIVE

In patients experiencing acute ischemic stroke, there is ongoing debate surrounding the connection between chronic hyperglycemic status and their initial clinical outcomes. Our objective was to examine the connection between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and adverse clinical outcomes at both 3-months adverse clinical outcomes in individuals with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with and without diabetes.

METHODS

The present prospective cohort study involved 896 AIS patients without diabetes and 628 with diabetes treated at a South Korean hospital from January 2010 to December 2016. The target independent variable is HbA1c. The outcome variable is a modified Rankin scale score ≥ 3. A binary logistic regression model was applied to assess the connection between HbA1c levels and 3-month poor clinical outcomes in AIS patients with and without diabetes. Additionally, a generalized additive model and smoothed curve fitting were utilized to explore potential nonlinear associations between HbA1c levels and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes in AIS patients with and without diabetes.

RESULTS

The binary logistic regression model could not identify any statistically significant connection between HbA1c and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes in AIS patients, both those with and without diabetes, after correcting for various factors. However, a nonlinear relationship emerged between HbA1c and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes in AIS patients with diabetes. The inflection point for HbA1c was determined to be 6.1%. For HbA1c values ≤ 6.1%, an inverse association was observed between HbA1c and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes in diabetic AIS patients, and each 1% increase in HbA1c in AIS patients with DM was associated with an 87% reduction in 3-month adverse clinical outcomes (OR = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.02-0.81). Conversely, when HbA1c exceeded 6.1%, a positive association between HbA1c and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes became apparent in diabetic AIS patients, and each 1% increase in HbA1c in AIS patients with DM was associated with a 23% increase in 3-month adverse clinical outcomes (OR = 1.23, 95%CI: 1.03-1.47). However, it's important to note that no significant linear or nonlinear relationships were observed between HbA1c levels and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes in AIS patients without diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest a nonlinear connection and threshold effect between HbA1c and 3-month adverse clinical outcomes in AIS patients with diabetes. AIS patients with diabetes had a lower risk of 3-month adverse clinical outcomes when their HbA1c control was close to 6.1%. Our findings may aid treatment decision-making and potentially guide interventions to optimize glycemic control in AIS patients.

Long-Term Autoimmune Inflammatory Rheumatic Outcomes of COVID-19 : A Binational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Some data suggest a higher incidence of diagnosis of autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIRDs) among patients with a history of COVID-19 compared with uninfected patients. However, these studies had methodological shortcomings.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of COVID-19 on long-term risk for incident AIRD over various follow-up periods.

DESIGN

Binational, longitudinal, propensity-matched cohort study.

SETTING

Nationwide claims-based databases in South Korea (K-COV-N cohort) and Japan (JMDC cohort).

PARTICIPANTS

10 027 506 Korean and 12 218 680 Japanese patients aged 20 years or older, including those with COVID-19 between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, matched to patients with influenza infection and to uninfected control patients.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was onset of AIRD (per appropriate codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) 1, 6, and 12 months after COVID-19 or influenza infection or the respective matched index date of uninfected control patients.

RESULTS

Between 2020 and 2021, among the 10 027 506 Korean participants (mean age, 48.4 years [SD, 13.4]; 50.1% men), 394 274 (3.9%) and 98 596 (0.98%) had a history of COVID-19 or influenza, respectively. After propensity score matching, beyond the first 30 days after infection, patients with COVID-19 were at increased risk for incident AIRD compared with uninfected patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.18 to 1.31]) and influenza-infected control patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.30 [CI, 1.02 to 1.59]). The risk for incident AIRD was higher with more severe acute COVID-19. Similar patterns were observed in the Japanese cohort.

LIMITATIONS

Referral bias due to the pandemic; residual confounding.

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with increased risk for incident AIRD compared with matched patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection or with influenza infection. The risk for incident AIRD was higher with greater severity of acute COVID-19.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Research Foundation of Korea.

Impact of Antibiotics Used for Acute Aspiration Bronchitis on the Prevention of Pneumonia

BACKGROUNDS

It remains unclear if antibiotics should be used for the treatment of acute aspiration bronchitis to prevent the development of pneumonia. This study aimed to assess the associations between the use of antibiotics and the development of pneumonia among patients with acute aspiration bronchitis.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with acute aspiration bronchitis aged ≥75 years. Acute aspiration bronchitis was defined as a condition with aspiration risk, high fever (body temperature, ≥37.5 °C), respiratory symptoms, and the absence of evidence of pneumonia.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in the incidence of pneumonia between patients treated with and without antibiotics for acute aspiration bronchitis (6/44, 14% vs. 31/143, 22%; p = 0.242). Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.956; 95% confidence interval, 0.920-0.993) was significantly associated with the development of pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic administration should not be routinely recommended to prevent pneumonia following acute aspiration bronchitis, and patients with decreased renal function should be closely monitored. A randomized controlled trial is necessary to validate these results.

Link between triglyceride-glucose-body mass index and future stroke risk in middle-aged and elderly chinese: a nationwide prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Current literature is deficient in robust evidence delineating the correlation between the triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) and the incidence of stroke. Consequently, this investigation seeks to elucidate the potential link between TyG-BMI and stroke risk in a cohort of middle-aged and senior Chinese individuals.

METHODS

This study employs longitudinal data from four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018, encompassing 8,698 participants. The CHARLS cohort was assembled using a multistage probability sampling technique. Participants underwent comprehensive evaluations through standardized questionnaires administered via face-to-face interviews. Our analytic strategy involved the application of Cox proportional hazards regression models to investigate the association between TyG-BMI and the risk of stroke. To discern potential non-linear relationships, we incorporated Cox proportional hazards regression with smooth curve fitting. Additionally, we executed a battery of sensitivity and subgroup analyses to validate the robustness of our findings.

RESULTS

Our study utilized a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model and found a significant correlation between the TyG-BMI and the risk of stroke. Specifically, a 10-unit increase in TyG-BMI corresponded to a 4.9% heightened risk of stroke (HR = 1.049, 95% CI 1.029-1.069). The analysis also uncovered a non-linear pattern in this relationship, pinpointed by an inflection point at a TyG-BMI value of 174.63. To the left of this inflection point-meaning at lower TyG-BMI values-a 10-unit hike in TyG-BMI was linked to a more substantial 14.4% rise in stroke risk (HR 1.144; 95% CI 1.044-1.253). Conversely, to the right of the inflection point-at higher TyG-BMI values-each 10-unit increment was associated with a smaller, 3.8% increase in the risk of stroke (HR 1.038; 95% CI 1.016-1.061).

CONCLUSIONS

In the middle-aged and elderly Chinese population, elevated TyG-BMI was significantly and positively associated with stroke risk. In addition, there was also a specific non-linear association between TyG-BMI and stroke (inflection point 174.63). Further reduction of TyG-BMI below 174.63 through lifestyle changes and dietary control can significantly reduce the risk of stroke.

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate and reversion to normoglycemia in people with impaired fasting glucose: a 5-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The present body of evidence regarding the correlation between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the reversal of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) to normoglycemia remains constrained. Consequently, the objective of our study is to examine the relationship between eGFR and the restoration of normoglycemia in individuals with IFG.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study consecutively collected data from 24,541 non-selective participants with IFG at Rich Healthcare Group in China from January 2010 to 2016. We aimed to investigate the association between baseline eGFR and reversion to normoglycemia using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Through the utilization of a Cox proportional hazards regression model featuring cubical spline smoothing, we were able to ascertain the non-linear correlation between eGFR and the return to normoglycemia. Furthermore, various sensitivity and subgroup analyses were carried out, and a competing risk multivariate Cox regression was employed to examine the progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of normoglycemic events.

RESULTS

In our study, comprising 24,541 participants, the average age was 49.25 ± 13.77 years, with 66.28% being male. The baseline eGFR mean was 104.16 ± 15.78 ml/min per 1.73 m2. During a median follow-up period of 2.89 years, we observed a reversion rate to normoglycemia of 45.50%. Upon controlling for covariates, our findings indicated a positive correlation between eGFR and the probability of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 1.008, 95% CI 1.006-1.009). In addition, a non-linear association was observed between eGFR and the likelihood of transitioning from IFG to normoglycemia. The inflection point of eGFR was found to be 111.962 ml/min per 1.73 m2, with HRs of 1.003 (95% CI 1.001, 1.005) on the left side of the point and 1.019 (95% CI 1.015, 1.022) on the right side. Our robust results were supported by competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our investigation indicate a favorable and non-linear correlation between eGFR and the restoration of normoglycemia in Chinese individuals with IFG. Specifically, a reduction in renal function at an early stage in these patients may considerably diminish the likelihood of attaining normoglycemia.

Elevated triglyceride-glucose-body mass index associated with lower probability of future regression to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes: a 5-year cohort study

Objective

Despite the clear association of TyG-BMI with prediabetes and the progression of diabetes, no study to date has examined the relationship between TyG-BMI and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia.

Methods

25,279 participants with prediabetes who had physical examinations between 2010 and 2016 were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. The relationship between baseline TyG-BMI and regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model in this study. Additionally, the nonlinear association between TyG-BMI and the likelihood of regression to normoglycemia was investigated using the Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline function. Competing risk multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted, with progression to diabetes as a competing risk for prediabetes reversal to normoglycemia. Furthermore, subgroup analyses and a series of sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

After adjusting for covariates, the results showed that TyG-BMI was negatively associated with the probability of returning to normoglycemia (per 10 units, HR=0.970, 95% CI: 0.965, 0.976). They were also nonlinearly related, with an inflection point for TyG-BMI of 196.46. The effect size (HR) for TyG-BMI to the right of the inflection point (TyG-BMI ≥ 196.46) and the probability of return of normoglycemia was 0.962 (95% CI: 0.954, 0.970, per 10 units). In addition, the competing risks model found a negative correlation between TyG-BMI and return to normoglycemia (SHR=0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of our results.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated a negative and nonlinear relationship between TyG-BMI and return to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes. Through active intervention, the combined reduction of BMI and TG levels to bring TyG-BMI down to 196.46 could significantly increase the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Uncovering a dose-response relationship between positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer-related mortality

BACKGROUND

Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Its association with non-CRC mortality has been overlooked. Given the quantitative FIT values, its dose-response relationships with different causes of deaths and years of life shortened were assessed.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 546,214 adults aged ≥ 20 who attended a health surveillance program from 1994 to 2017 and were followed up until the end of 2020. FIT ≥ 20 μg Hb/g was defined as positive. The Cox model was used to assess adjusted hazard ratios (aHR).

RESULTS

Positive FIT was associated with increased all-cause mortality (aHR: 1.34, 95 % CI: 1.25-1.44) and all-cancer mortality (aHR: 1.71, 95 % CI: 1.55-1.89), with a reduction of life expectancy by 4 years. The association remained even with CRC excluded. With each 10 μg Hb/g increase in FIT above 20 μg Hb/g, life expectancy was reduced by one year, and mortality increased by 4 %. About 18.6 % of deaths with positive FIT were attributed to cardiovascular disease (CVD), followed by CRC (13.5 %) and upper gastrointestinal (GI) cancers (4.5 %). The all-cause mortality rate after excluding CRC for positive FIT was 3.56/1,000 person-year, comparable to the all-cause mortality rate of 3.69/1,000 person-year for hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Positive FIT was associated with increased mortality in a dose-response manner and shortened life expectancy by 4 years, an overlooked risk comparable to hypertension, even with CRC excluded. After a negative colonoscopy, subjects with positive FIT should undergo a workup on CVD risk factors and look for other upper GI cancers.

Blood urea nitrogen has a nonlinear association with 3-month outcomes with acute ischemic stroke: A second analysis based on a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the relationship between blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and 3-month outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients is still scarce. Therefore, the present study was preformed to explore the link between the BUN and 3-month poor outcomes in patients with AIS.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 1866 participants with AIS enrolled from January 2010 to December 2016 at a hospital in South Korea. Binary logistic regression, smooth curve fitting, and a set of sensitivity analyses were used to analyze the association between BUN and 3-month poor outcomes.

RESULTS

After adjusting covariates, the results of the binary logistic regression model suggested that the relationship between the BUN and the risk of 3-month poor outcomes for AIS patients was not statistically significant. However, there was a special nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of the BUN was 13 mg/dl. On the left side of the inflection point, every unit increase in the BUN reduces the risk of 3-month poor outcomes by 14.1 % (OR = 0.859, 95%CI: 0.780-0.945, p = 0.0019). On the right side of the inflection point, the relationship is not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

There is a nonlinear relationship with saturation effect between BUN level and 3-month poor outcomes in AIS patients. Maintaining the BUN at around 13 mg/dl can reduce the risk of 3-month poor outcome in AIS patients.

Defining the threshold: triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio's non-linear impact on tubular atrophy in primary membranous nephropathy

Background

Hyperlipidemia is common in primary membranous nephropathy (PMN) patients, and tubular atrophy (TA) is an unfavorable prognostic factor. However, the correlation between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio and TA is controversial. Therefore, our study aimed to investigate the association between the TG/HDL-C ratio and TA in PMN patients.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study and collected data from 363 PMN patients at Shenzhen Second People's Hospital from January 2008 to April 2023. The primary objective was to evaluate the independent correlation between the TG/HDL-C ratio and TA using binary logistic regression model. We used a generalized additive model along with smooth curve fitting and multiple sensitivity analyses to explore the relationship between these variables. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted to delve deeper into the results.

Results

Of the 363 PMN patients, 75 had TA (20.66%). The study population had a mean age of 46.598 ± 14.462 years, with 217 (59.78%) being male. After adjusting for sex, age, BMI, hypertension, history of diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, UPRO, eGFR, HB, FPG, and ALB, we found that the TG/HDL-C ratio was an independent risk factor for TA in PMN patients (OR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.61, P=0.0213). A non-linear correlation was observed between the TG/HDL-C ratio and TA, with an inflection point at 4.25. The odds ratios (OR) on the left and right sides of this inflection point were 1.56 (95% CI: 1.17, 2.07) and 0.25 (95% CI: 0.04, 1.54), respectively. Sensitivity analysis confirmed these results. Subgroup analysis showed a consistent association between the TG/HDL-C ratio and TA, implying that factors such as gender, BMI, age, UPRO, ALB, hypertension and severe nephrotic syndrome had negligible effects on the link between the TG/HDL-C ratio and TA.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates a non-linear positive correlation between the TG/HDL-C ratio and the risk of TA in PMN patients, independent of other factors. Specifically, the association is more pronounced when the ratio falls below 4.25. Based on our findings, it would be advisable to decrease the TG/HDL-C ratio below the inflection point in PMN patients as part of treatment strategies.

Handling missing covariates in observational studies: an illustration with the assessment of prognostic factors of survival outcomes in soft-tissue or visceral sarcomas in irradiated fields (SIF)

Background

Missing covariates are common in observational research and can lead to bias and loss of statistical power. Limited data regarding prognostic factors of survival outcomes of sarcomas in irradiated fields (SIF) are available. Because of the long lag time between irradiation of first cancer and scarcity of SIF, missing data are a critical issue when analyzing long-term outcomes. We assessed prognostic factors of overall (OS), progression-free (PFS), and metastatic-progression-free (MPFS) survivals in SIF using three methods to account for missing covariates.

Methods

We relied on the NETSARC French Sarcoma Group database, Cox (OS/PFS), and competitive hazards (MPFS) survival models. Covariates investigated were age, sex, histological subtype, tumor size, depth and grade, metastasis, surgery, surgical resection, surgeon's expertise, imaging, and neo-adjuvant treatment. We first applied multiple imputation (MI): observed data were used to estimate the missing covariate. With the missing-data modality approach, a category missing was created for qualitative variables. With the complete-case (CC) approach, analysis was restricted to patients without missing covariates.

Results

CC subjects (N = 167; 33%) presented more often with soft-tissue sarcoma (versus visceral sarcoma) and grade I-II tumors as compared to the 504 eligible cases. With MI (N = 504), factors associated with the worst outcome included metastasis (p = 0.04) and R1/R2 resection (p < 0.001) for OS; higher grade/non-gradable tumors (p = 0.002) and R1/R2 resection (p < 0.001) for PFS; and metastasis (p = 0.01) for M-PFS. The 'missing-data modality' approach (N = 504) led to different associations, including significance reached due to variables with the modality 'missing'. The CC analysis led to different results and reduced precision.

Conclusion

The CC population was not representative of the eligible population, introducing bias, in addition to worst precision. The 'missing-data modality method' results in biased estimates in non-randomized studies, as outcomes may be related to variables with missing values. Appropriate statistical methods for missing covariates, for example, MI, should therefore be considered.

The non-linear link between non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio and the risk of stroke in middle-aged and older adults in Chinese: a prospective cohort study from the China health and retirement longitudinal study

Objective

This study aims to assess the association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke risk among middle-aged and older adults participating in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).

Methods

This study conducted a prospective cohort analysis, enrolling a total of 10,183 participants who met the designated criteria from CHARLS between 2011 and 2012. We then used the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to explore the relationship between baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke risk. Using a Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline function, we were able to identify the non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke occurrence. A series of sensitivity analyses were also carried out.

Results

The average age of the participants included in this study was 59.16 ± 9.35 years, and 4,735 individuals (46.68%) were male. Over a median follow-up period of 7.0 years, a total of 1,191 people (11.70%) experienced a stroke. Using a Cox proportional hazards regression model that was fully adjusted, we found no statistically significant correlation between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the risk of stroke (HR=1.022; 95% CI 0.964, 1.083). Nevertheless, we did observe a non-linear relationship and saturation effect between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke. Employing a two-piece Cox proportional hazards regression model and a recursive algorithm, we determined an inflection point of 2.685 for the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio. In instances where the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio fell below 2.685, for every 1-unit decrease in the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio, the likelihood of stroke decreased by 21.4% (HR=1.214, 95% CI: 1.039-1.418). In contrast, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio exceeded 2.685, there was no statistically significant change in the risk of stroke for each unit decrease in the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio (HR: 0.967, 95% CI: 0.897-1.042). The consistency of these findings across multiple sensitivity analyses suggests their robustness.

Conclusion

This study unveils a non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke risk in middle-aged and older adults in China. Specifically, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was below 2.685, a significant and clearly positive association with stroke risk was observed. Additionally, maintaining the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio below 2.685 could potentially lead to a substantial reduction in the risk of stroke.

No Waning of Pneumococcal Vaccine Responses over Time in People with Inflammatory Arthritis: Findings from a Single Centre Cohort

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against pneumococcus reduces the risk of infective events, hospitalisation, and death in individual with inflammatory arthritis, particularly in those on immunomodulating therapy who are at risk of worse outcomes from pneumococcal disease. The objective of this study was to investigate the serological protection following vaccination against pneumococcal serovars over time. Methods: This was a single centre, retrospective cohort study of individuals with rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, or axial spondylarthritis who had previously received the PPSV23 polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine (Pneumovax). Data were retrieved between January 2021 to August 2023. Dates of previous pneumococcal vaccination were identified using linked primary care records. Serum serotype levels were collected. The primary outcome was serological response defined as a titre ≥0.35 mcg/mL in at least five from a total of 12 evaluated pneumococcal serovars, examined using a Luminex platform. Multivariate logistic regression models adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, co-morbidities, and the use of prednisolone, conventional synthetic and biological DMARDs were used to determine the odds of a sustained serological response according to time categorised into ≤5 years, 5-10 years, and ≥10 years since vaccination. Results: Serological response was measured in 296 individuals with inflammatory arthritis, with rheumatoid arthritis the most common diagnosis (74% of patients). The median time between pneumococcal vaccine administration and serological assessment was 6 years (interquartile range 2.4 to 9.9). A positive serological response to at least 5 serovars was present in 195/296 (66%) of patients. Time since vaccination did not significantly associate with serological protection compared with those vaccinated <5 years, the adjusted ORs of vaccine response was 1.15 (95% CI 0.64 to 2.07) in those 5-10 years and 1.26 (95% CI: 0.64 to 2.48) in those vaccinated over 10 years ago. No individual variable from the multivariate model reached statistical significance as an independent predictor of vaccine response, although steroid use at the time of vaccine had a consistent detrimental impact on serological immunity. Conclusions: We demonstrated that antibody titres following vaccination against pneumococcal serovars do not appear to wane over time. It appears more critical to focus on maximising the initial vaccine response, which is known to be diminished in this patient population.

Association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes: an analysis based on data from a retrospective cohort study

The available evidence on the connection between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and the reversion from prediabetes (Pre-DM) to normoglycemia is currently limited. The present research sought to examine the connection between HDL-C levels and the regression from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in a population of Chinese adults. This historical cohort study collected 15,420 Pre-DM patients in China who underwent health screening between 2010 and 2016. The present research used the Cox proportional hazards regression model to investigate the connection between HDL-C levels and reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. The Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting was employed to ascertain the nonlinear association between HDL-C and reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. Furthermore, a set of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were employed. Following the adjustment of covariates, the findings revealed a positive connection between HDL-C levels and the likelihood of reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia (HR 1.898, 95% CI 1.758-2.048, P < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a non-linear relationship between HDL-C and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in both genders, and the inflection point of HDL-C was 1.540 mmol/L in males and 1.620 mmol/L in females. We found a strong positive correlation between HDL-C and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia on the left of the inflection point (Male: HR 2.783, 95% CI 2.373-3.263; Female: HR 2.217, 95% CI 1.802-2.727). Our sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings. Subgroup analyses indicated that patients with SBP < 140 mmHg and ever smoker exhibited a more pronounced correlation between HDL-C levels and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. In contrast, a less robust correlation was observed among patients with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, current and never smokers. This study provides evidence of a positive and nonlinear association between HDL-C levels and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in Chinese patients. Implementing intensified intervention measures to control the HDL-C levels of patients with Pre-DM around the inflection point may substantially enhance the likelihood of regression to normoglycemia.

Left-dominance for resting-state temporal low-gamma power in children with impaired word-decoding and without comorbid ADHD

One theory of the origins of reading disorders (i.e., dyslexia) is a language network which cannot effectively 'entrain' to speech, with cascading effects on the development of phonological skills. Low-gamma (low-γ, 30-45 Hz) neural activity, particularly in the left hemisphere, is thought to correspond to tracking at phonemic rates in speech. The main goals of the current study were to investigate temporal low-γ band-power during rest in a sample of children and adolescents with and without reading disorder (RD). Using a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the power spectral density of EEG data, we examined whether (1) resting-state temporal low-γ power was attenuated in the left temporal region in RD; (2) low-γ power covaried with individual reading performance; (3) low-γ temporal lateralization was atypical in RD. Contrary to our expectations, results did not support the hypothesized effects of RD status and poor decoding ability on left hemisphere low-γ power or lateralization: post-hoc tests revealed that the lack of atypicality in the RD group was not due to the inclusion of those with comorbid attentional deficits. However, post-hoc tests also revealed a specific left-dominance for low-γ rhythms in children with reading deficits only, when participants with comorbid attentional deficits were excluded. We also observed an inverse relationship between decoding and left-lateralization in the controls, such that those with better decoding skills were less likely to show left-lateralization. We discuss these unexpected findings in the context of prior theoretical frameworks on temporal sampling. These results may reflect the importance of real-time language processing to evoke gamma rhythms in the phonemic range during childhood and adolescence.

A nomogram model for predicting 5-year risk of prediabetes in Chinese adults

Early identification is crucial to effectively intervene in individuals at high risk of developing pre-diabetes. This study aimed to create a personalized nomogram to determine the 5-year risk of pre-diabetes among Chinese adults. This retrospective cohort study included 184,188 participants without prediabetes at baseline. Training cohorts (92,177) and validation cohorts (92,011) were randomly assigned (92,011). We compared five prediction models on the training cohorts: full cox proportional hazards model, stepwise cox proportional hazards model, multivariable fractional polynomials (MFP), machine learning, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models. At the same time, we validated the above five models on the validation set. And we chose the LASSO model as the final risk prediction model for prediabetes. We presented the model with a nomogram. The model's performance was evaluated in terms of its discriminative ability, clinical utility, and calibration using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis, and calibration analysis on the training cohorts. Simultaneously, we also evaluated the above nomogram on the validation set. The 5-year incidence of prediabetes was 10.70% and 10.69% in the training and validation cohort, respectively. We developed a simple nomogram that predicted the risk of prediabetes by using the parameters of age, body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FBG), triglycerides (TG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum creatinine (Scr). The nomogram's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.7341 (95% CI 0.7290-0.7392) for the training cohort and 0.7336 (95% CI 0.7285-0.7387) for the validation cohort, indicating good discriminative ability. The calibration curve showed a perfect fit between the predicted prediabetes risk and the observed prediabetes risk. An analysis of the decision curve presented the clinical application of the nomogram, with alternative threshold probability spectrums being presented as well. A personalized prediabetes prediction nomogram was developed and validated among Chinese adults, identifying high-risk individuals. Doctors and others can easily and efficiently use our prediabetes prediction model when assessing prediabetes risk.

Association between non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio and reversion to normoglycemia in people with impaired fasting glucose: a 5-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between the non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio (non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio) and changes in glycemic status as well as the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been well established. However, there is a lack of evidence concerning the association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the reversal of normoglycemia in individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Therefore, this study aimed to examine the connection between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia among people with IFG.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined data collected from 15,524 non-selective participants with IFG at the Rich Healthcare Group in China between January 2010 and 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to investigate the connection between the baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the probability of reverting to normoglycemia. We were able to discover the non-linear association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and reversion to normoglycemia using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubical spline smoothing. We also performed several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. A competing risk multivariate Cox regression was utilized as well to examine the development to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of normoglycemic events.

RESULTS

In our study, a total of 15,524 individuals participated, with a mean age of 50.9 ± 13.5 years, and 64.7% were male. The average baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was 2.9 ± 0.9. Over a median follow-up period of 2.9 years, we observed a reversion rate to normoglycemia of 41.8%. After adjusting for covariates, our findings revealed a negative association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.74). Notably, we identified a non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the probability of transitioning from IFG to normoglycemia. We found an inflection point at a non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio of 3.1, with HRs of 0.63 (95% CI 0.69, 0.74) on the left side and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74, 0.83) on the right side of the point. Competing risks multivariate Cox's regression, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analysis consistently supported our robust results.

CONCLUSION

Our study has revealed a negative and non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese people with IFG. Specifically, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was below 3.1, a significant and negative association with reversion to normoglycemia was observed. Furthermore, keeping the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio below 3.1 significantly elevated the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Women's input and decision-making in agriculture are associated with diet quality in rural Tanzania

Background

Women's empowerment is one critical pathway through which agriculture can impact women's nutrition; however, empirical evidence is still limited. We evaluated the associations of women's participation, input, and decision-making in key agricultural and household activities with women's diet quality.

Methods

We analyzed data from a cross-sectional study of 870 women engaged in homestead agriculture. We used food frequency questionnaires to assess women's diets and computed women's diet quality using the Prime Diet Quality Score (PDQS) (range 0-42), which captures healthy and unhealthy foods. We evaluated women's decision-making in 8 activities, food crop farming, cash crop farming, livestock raising, non-farm economic activities, wage/salary employment, fishing, major household expenditures, and minor household expenditures. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) linear models were used to evaluate associations between (a) women's participation, (b) decision-making, (c) adequate input, (d) adequate extent of independence in decision-making in agriculture, and (e) adequate input in use of agricultural income with their PDQS. Adequate input was defined as input into some, most or all decisions compared to input into few decisions or none. Adequate extent of independence was defined as input to a medium or high extent compared to input to a small extent or none.

Findings

Median PDQS was 19 (IQR: 16-21). Women's adequate input in decision-making on wage and salary employment (estimate: 4.19, 95% CI: 2.80, 5.57) and minor expenditures were associated with higher PDQS vs. inadequate input. Women with independence in decision-making on livestock production (estimate: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.05, 1.90) and minor household expenditures, and women with adequate decision-making in the use of income from wages/salaries (estimate: 3.16, 95% CI: 2.44, 3.87) had higher PDQS. Participation in agricultural activities was positively associated with PDQS.

Conclusions

Women's participation and input in decision-making in wage and salary employment, livestock production, and minor household expenditures were strongly associated with the consumption of better-quality diets. Women participating in multiple farm activities were also likely to have better diet quality. This study adds to the growing evidence on the pathways through which women's empowerment may influence women's nutrition in rural Tanzania.

The association between creatinine to body weight ratio and the risk of progression to diabetes from pre-diabetes: a 5-year cohort study in Chinese adults

OBJECTIVE

Evidence on the association between the creatinine to body weight (Cre/BW) ratio and the risk of pre-diabetes to diabetes development remains limited. Our study aimed to examine the association between the Cre/BW ratio and incident diabetes in pre-diabetic patients.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 24,506 pre-diabetic participants who underwent health checks from 2010 to 2016 in China. We used the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to explore the relationship between baseline Cre/BW ratio and diabetes risk in pre-diabetes patients. Using a Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline function and smooth curve fitting (cubical spline smoothing), we were able to determine the non-linear relationship between them. We also carried out a number of subgroup and sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The age range of the participants included in this study was 20-99 years, with a majority of 16,232 individuals (66.24%) being men. The mean baseline Cre/BW ratio was 1.06 (SD 0.22) umol/L/kg. 2512 (10.25%) participants received a diabetes final diagnosis over a median follow-up period of 2.89 years. After adjusting for covariates, the Cre/BW ratio had a negative association with incident diabetes in participants with pre-diabetes, per umol/L/kg increase in Cre/BM ratio was accompanied by a 55.5% decrease in diabetes risk (HR = 0.445, 95%CI 0.361 to 0.548). The Cre/BW ratio and risk of diabetes had a non-linear connection, with 1.072 umol/L/kg serving as the ratio's inflection point. The HR were 0.294 (95%CI:0.208-0.414) and 0.712 (95%CI:0.492-1.029), respectively, on the left and right sides of the inflection point. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of these results. Subgroup analyses indicated that the Cre/BW ratio was strongly associated with the risk of diabetes among participants who were younger than 50 years, as well as among those with diastolic blood pressure (DBP) < 90 mmHg and triglyceride (TG) < 1.7 mmol/L. In contrast, among participants 50 years of age or older, those with DBP ≥ 90 mmHg, and those with TG ≥ 1.7 mmol/L, the relationship between the Cre/BW ratio and the risk of diabetes was attenuated.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates a negative, non-linear relationship between the Cre/BW ratio and the risk of diabetes among the Chinese population with pre-diabetes. From a therapeutic standpoint, it is clinically meaningful to maintain the Cre/BW ratio levels above the inflection point of 1.072 umol/L/kg.

Novel model predicts diastolic cardiac dysfunction in type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes mellitus complicated with heart failure has high mortality and morbidity, but no reliable diagnoses and treatments are available. This study aimed to develop and verify a new model nomogram based on clinical parameters to predict diastolic cardiac dysfunction in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

3030 patients with T2DM underwent Doppler echocardiography at the First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University between January 2014 and December 2021. The patients were divided into the training dataset (n = 1701) and the verification dataset (n = 1329). In this study, a predictive diastolic cardiac dysfunction nomogram is developed using multivariable logical regression analysis, which contains the candidates selected in a minor absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model. Discrimination in the prediction model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The calibration curve was applied to evaluate the calibration of the alignment nomogram, and the clinical decision curve was used to determine the clinical practicability of the alignment map. The verification dataset was used to evaluate the prediction model's performance.

RESULTS

A multivariable model that included age, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride (TG), creatine phosphokinase isoenzyme (CK-MB), serum sodium (Na), and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) was presented as the nomogram. We obtained the model for estimating diastolic cardiac dysfunction in patients with T2DM. The AUC-ROC of the training dataset in our model was 0.8307, with 95% CI of 0.8109-0.8505. Similar to the results obtained with the training dataset, the AUC-ROC of the verification dataset in our model was 0.8083, with 95% CI of 0.7843-0.8324, thus demonstrating robust. The function of the predictive model was as follows: Diastolic Dysfunction = -4.41303 + 0.14100*Age(year)+0.10491*BMI (kg/m2) +0.12902*TG (mmol/L) +0.03970*CK-MB (ng/mL) -0.03988*Na(mmol/L) +0.65395 * (UACR > 30 mg/g) + 1.10837 * (UACR > 300 mg/g). The calibration plot diagram of predicted probabilities against observed DCM rates indicated excellent concordance. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the novel nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

Diastolic cardiac dysfunction in patients with T2DM can be predicted by clinical parameters. Our prediction model may represent an effective tool for large-scale epidemiological study of diastolic cardiac dysfunction in T2DM patients and provide a reliable method for early screening of T2DM patients with cardiac complications.KEY MESSAGESThis study used clinical parameters to predict diastolic cardiac dysfunction in patients with T2DM. This study established a nomogram for predicting diastolic cardiac dysfunction by multivariate logical regression analysis. Our predictive model can be used as an effective tool for large-scale epidemiological study of diastolic cardiac dysfunction in patients with T2DM and provides a reliable method for early screening of cardiac complications in patients with T2DM.

Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio is associated with regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes in adults: a 5-year cohort study in China

OBJECTIVE

The current body of evidence on the association between the ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia remains limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia in patients with prediabetes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 15,107 individuals with prediabetes from 32 Chinese districts and 11 cities who completed health checks from 2010 to 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model examined baseline TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting determined the non-linear connection between TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia. We also ran sensitivity and subgroup analysis. By characterizing progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemic event, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model with competing risks was created.

RESULTS

Upon adjusting for covariates, the findings indicate a negative association between TG/HDL-c and the likelihood of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 0.869, 95%CI:0.842-0.897). Additionally, a non-linear relationship between TG/HDL-c and the probability of reversion to normoglycemia was observed, with an inflection point of 1.675. The HR on the left side of the inflection point was 0.748 (95%CI:0.699, 0.801). The robustness of our results was confirmed through competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and a series of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

The present study reveals a negative and non-linear correlation between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia among Chinese individuals with prediabetes. The findings of this study are anticipated to serve as a valuable resource for clinicians in managing dyslipidemia in prediabetic patients. Interventions aimed at reducing the TG/HDL-c ratio through the reduction of TG or elevation of HDL-c levels may substantially enhance the likelihood of achieving normoglycemia in individuals with prediabetes.

Impact of special educational needs provision on hospital utilisation, school attainment and absences for children in English primary schools stratified by gestational age at birth: A target trial emulation study protocol

Introduction

One third of children in English primary schools have additional learning support called special educational needs (SEN) provision, but children born preterm are more likely to have SEN than those born at term. We aim to assess the impact of SEN provision on health and education outcomes in children grouped by gestational age at birth.

Methods

We will analyse linked administrative data for England using the Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data (ECHILD) database. A target trial emulation approach will be used to specify data extraction from ECHILD, comparisons of interest and our analysis plan. Our target population is all children enrolled in year one of state-funded primary school in England who were born in an NHS hospital in England between 2003 and 2008, grouped by gestational age at birth (extremely preterm (24-<28 weeks), very preterm (28-<32 weeks), moderately preterm (32-<34 weeks), late preterm (34-<37 weeks) and full term (37-<42 weeks). The intervention of interest will comprise categories of SEN provision (including none) during year one (age five/six). The outcomes of interest are rates of unplanned hospital utilisation, educational attainment, and absences by the end of primary school education (year six, age 11). We will triangulate results from complementary estimation methods including the naïve estimator, multivariable regression, g-formula, inverse probability weighting, inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment and instrumental variables, along with a variety for a variety of causal contrasts (average treatment effect, overall, and on the treated/not treated).

Ethics and dissemination

We have existing research ethics approval for analyses of the ECHILD database described in this protocol. We will disseminate our findings to diverse audiences (academics, relevant government departments, service users and providers) through seminars, peer-reviewed publications, short briefing reports and infographics for non-academics (published on the study website).

Perioperative Use of Intravenous Levodopa as an Anti-Parkinsonian Drug: A Propensity Score Analysis

Background

Perioperative discontinuation of oral anti-parkinsonian medication can negatively impact the prognosis of abdominal surgery in patients with Parkinson's disease. Although intravenous levodopa may be an alternative, its efficacy has not yet been investigated.

Objectives

To determine the efficacy of intravenous levodopa as an alternative to oral anti-Parkinsonian drugs during gastric or colorectal cancer surgery.

Methods

We identified patients with Parkinson's disease who underwent surgery for gastric or colorectal cancer between April 2010 and March 2020, using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, a nationwide inpatient database in Japan. Patients were divided into two groups: those who received intravenous levodopa during the perioperative period and those who did not. We compared in-hospital mortalities, major complications, and postoperative length of stay between the groups after adjusting for background characteristics with overlap weights based on propensity scores.

Results

We identified 648 patients who received intravenous levodopa and 1207 who did not receive levodopa during the perioperative period. In the adjusted cohort, the mean postoperative length of stay was 24.7 and 29.0 days (percent difference, -7.7%; 95% confidence interval, -13.1 to -1.5); in-hospital death was 3.2% and 3.3% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.95; 95% CI: 0.54-1.67); and incidence of major complications were 21.4% and 19.3% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.13) in those with and without intravenous levodopa, respectively.

Conclusions

Intravenous levodopa was associated with a shorter postoperative length of stay, but not with mortality or morbidity. Intravenous levodopa may improve perioperative care in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Association between socioeconomic status with pregnancy and neonatal outcomes: An international multicenter cohort

INTRODUCTION

Previous evidence examining the association between socioeconomic status and pregnancy complications are conflicted and often limited to using area-based measures of socioeconomic status. In this study, we aimed to examine the association between individual-level socioeconomic factors and a wide range of adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes using data from the IMPROvED birth cohort conducted in Sweden, the Netherlands and Republic of Ireland.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study cohort consisted of women who participated in the IMPROvED birth cohort between 2013 and 2017. Data on socioeconomic factors were self-reported and obtained at 15 weeks' gestation, and included level of education, employment status, relationship status, and income. Data on pregnancy and neonatal outcomes included gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes mellitus, emergency cesarean section, preterm birth, post term delivery, small for gestational age and Apgar score at 1 min. These data were obtained within 72 h following delivery and confirmed using medical records. Multivariable logistic regression examined the association between each socioeconomic variable and each outcome separately adjusting for maternal age, maternal body mass index, maternal smoking, maternal alcohol consumption and cohort center. We also examined the effect of exposure to any ≥2 risk factors compared to none.

RESULTS

A total of 2879 participants were included. Adjusted results suggested that those with less than third level of education had an increased odds of gestational hypertension (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.23-2.46), while those on a middle level of income had a reduced odds of emergency cesarean section (OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.42-0.84). No significant associations were observed between socioeconomic variables and neonatal outcomes. Exposure to any ≥2 socioeconomic risk factors was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.06-2.89).

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find strong evidence of associations between individual-level socioeconomic factors and pregnancy and neonatal outcomes in high-income settings overall, with only few significant associations observed among pregnancy outcomes.

Evaluating the Short-Term Costs and Benefits of a Nationwide Diabetes Prevention Programme in England: Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Prevention programmes typically incur short-term costs and uncertain long-term benefits. We use the National Health Service (NHS) England Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-DPP) to investigate whether behaviour change programmes may be cost-effective even within the short-term participation period.

METHODS

We analysed 384,611 referrals between June 2016 and March 2019. We estimated NHS costs using implementation costs and provider payments. We used linear regressions to relate utility changes to the number of sessions attended, based on responses to the five-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) at baseline and final session for 18,959 participants. We then calculated the corresponding quality-adjusted life year (QALY) change for all 384,611 referrals by combining the estimated regression coefficients with the observed level of attendance, with individuals that did not attend any programme sessions being assumed to experience zero benefit. In secondary analysis, we added weight change, recorded for 18,105 participants to the regression and applied predicted values to all referrals with missing weight change values estimated using multiple imputation with chained equations. We then estimated the cost-per-QALY generated.

RESULTS

Average cost per referral was £119 (standard deviation: £118; 2020 price year, UK £ Sterling). Each session attended was associated with a 0.0042 increase in utility (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0025-0.0059). This generated 1,773 QALYs across all referrals (95% CI: 889-2,656). Cost-per-QALY was £24,929 (95% CI: £16,635-49,720) when implementation costs were excluded. Secondary analysis showed each session attended and kilogram of weight lost were associated with 0.0034 (95% CI: 0.0016-0.0051) and 0.0025 (95% CI: 0.0020-0.0031) increases in utility, respectively. These generated 1,542 QALYs, at a cost-per-QALY of £28,661 when implementation costs were excluded.

CONCLUSION

Participants experienced small utility gains from session attendance and weight loss during their programme participation. These benefits alone made this low-cost behaviour change programme potentially cost-effective in the short-term.

Prediction sets adaptive to unknown covariate shift

Predicting sets of outcomes-instead of unique outcomes-is a promising solution to uncertainty quantification in statistical learning. Despite a rich literature on constructing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, adapting to unknown covariate shift-a prevalent issue in practice-poses a serious unsolved challenge. In this article, we show that prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantee are uninformative and propose a novel flexible distribution-free method, PredSet-1Step, to efficiently construct prediction sets with an asymptotic coverage guarantee under unknown covariate shift. We formally show that our method is asymptotically probably approximately correct, having well-calibrated coverage error with high confidence for large samples. We illustrate that it achieves nominal coverage in a number of experiments and a data set concerning HIV risk prediction in a South African cohort study. Our theory hinges on a new bound for the convergence rate of the coverage of Wald confidence intervals based on general asymptotically linear estimators.

The association between Thoroughbred racehorse training practices and musculoskeletal injuries in Victoria, Australia

Catastrophic musculoskeletal injuries (CMI) in horses are associated with both too little and too much high-speed exercise. In order to advise trainers on training and management strategies that minimize the risk of musculoskeletal injury (MSI), a better understanding of how training practices affect MSI in racehorses is needed. Data from prospective studies relating training data and MSI are complicated by the gradual development of pathology and the effect of this on the ability of horses to train consistently prior to the identification of an injury. To circumvent this, 66 Australian Thoroughbred trainers were surveyed on their intended training practices, including rest, pre-training, and race-fit practices. Associations between intended training practices and catastrophic and non-catastrophic race day MSI outcomes in two-year-old and mature (≥three-year-old) horses were assessed using multivariable negative binomial regression models. The incidence of two-year-old race day MSI was lower for trainers who preferred shorter times (weeks) to trial, less time in fast work pre-trial (p = 0.003), shorter, more frequent rest periods (p < 0.01) and higher amounts of fast work at 15.5-16.7 m/s once race-fit (p = 0.001). The incidence of mature horse race day MSI was lower for trainers who preferred longer rest periods (p = 0.026) and a high-volume pre-trial training strategy comprising a high volume of slower speed gallop training and longer times to trial compared to fast and light training programs (p = 0.004) for their mature horses, in addition to higher amounts of fast work at 15.5-16.7 m/s for their race-fit two-year-olds (p = 0.012). Race day CMI incidence was lower for trainers who preferred lower volumes of fast gallop work for their race-fit mature horses (p < 0.05). These results suggest that two-year-old training practices could affect MSI risk later in a horse's career, and that age and stage in training (pre-trial, race-fit) are important considerations when developing training practices to minimize the risk of MSI.

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules following multiple imputation

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a function that inputs patient-level information and outputs a recommended treatment. An important focus of precision medicine is to develop optimal ITRs that maximize a population-level distributional summary. However, guidance for estimating and evaluating optimal ITRs in the presence of missing data is limited. Our work is motivated by the Social Incentives to Encourage Physical Activity and Understand Predictors (STEP UP) study. Participants were randomized to a control or one of three interventions designed to increase physical activity and were given wearable devices to record daily steps as a measure of physical activity. Many participants were missing at least one daily step count during the study period. In the primary analysis of the STEP UP trial, multiple imputation (MI) was used to address missingness in daily step counts. Despite ubiquitous use of MI in practice, it has been given relatively little attention in the context of personalized medicine. We fill this gap by describing two frameworks for estimation and evaluation of an optimal ITR following MI and assessing their performance using simulated data. One framework relies on splitting the data into independent training and testing sets for estimation and evaluation, respectively. The other framework estimates an optimal ITR using the full data and constructs anm $$ m $$ -out-of-n $$ n $$ bootstrap confidence interval to evaluate its performance. Finally, we provide an illustrative analysis to estimate and evaluate an optimal ITR from the STEP UP data with a focus on practical considerations such as choosing the number of imputations.

Updating and Validating the Rheumatic Disease Comorbidity Index to Incorporate ICD-10-CM Diagnostic Codes

OBJECTIVE

To update and validate the Rheumatic Disease Comorbidity Index (RDCI) utilizing International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes.

METHODS

We defined ICD-9-CM (n = 1,068) and ICD-10-CM (n = 1,425) era cohorts (n = 862 in both) spanning the ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM transition in a multicenter, prospective rheumatoid arthritis registry. Information regarding comorbidities was collected from linked administrative data over 2-year assessment periods. An ICD-10-CM code list was generated from crosswalks and clinical expertise. ICD-9- and ICD-10-derived RDCI scores were compared using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). The predictive ability of the RDCI for functional status and death during follow-up was assessed using multivariable regression models and goodness-of-fit statistics (Akaike's information criterion [AIC] and quasi information criterion [QIC]) in both cohorts.

RESULTS

Mean ± SD RDCI scores were 2.93 ± 1.72 in the ICD-9-CM cohort and 2.92 ± 1.74 in the ICD-10-CM cohort. RDCI scores had substantial agreement in individuals who were in both cohorts (ICC 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.68-0.74]). Prevalence of comorbidities was similar between cohorts with absolute differences <6%. Higher RDCI scores were associated with a greater risk of death and poorer functional status during follow-up in both cohorts. Similarly, in both cohorts, models including the RDCI score had the lowest QIC (functional status) and AIC (death) values, indicating better model performance.

CONCLUSION

The newly proposed ICD-10-CM codes for the RDCI-generated comparable RDCI scores to those derived from ICD-9-CM codes and are highly predictive of functional status and death. The proposed ICD-10-CM codes for the RDCI can be used in rheumatic disease outcomes research spanning the ICD-10-CM era.

Making the Improbable Possible: Generalizing Models Designed for a Syndrome-Based, Heterogeneous Patient Landscape

Syndromic conditions, such as sepsis, are commonly encountered in the intensive care unit. Although these conditions are easy for clinicians to grasp, these conditions may limit the performance of machine-learning algorithms. Individual hospital practice patterns may limit external generalizability. Data missingness is another barrier to optimal algorithm performance and various strategies exist to mitigate this. Recent advances in data science, such as transfer learning, conformal prediction, and continual learning, may improve generalizability of machine-learning algorithms in critically ill patients. Randomized trials with these approaches are indicated to demonstrate improvements in patient-centered outcomes at this point.