Potential of the test-negative design for measuring influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review

Effectiveness of influenza vaccine among the population in Chongqing, China, 2018-2022: A test negative design-based evaluation

Influenza vaccination is the most cost-effective strategy for influenza prevention. Influenza vaccines have been found to be effective against symptomatic and medically attended outpatient influenza illnesses. However, there is currently a lack of data regarding the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines in Chongqing, China. We conducted a prospective observational test-negative design study. Outpatient and emergency cases presenting with influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and available influenza reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were selected and classified as cases (positive influenza RT-PCR) or controls (negative influenza RT-PCR). A total of 7,307 cases of influenza and 7,905 control subjects were included in this study. The overall adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) was 44.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.5-54.2%). In the age groups of less than 6 years old, 6-18 years old, and 19-59 years old, the adjusted IVE were 32.2% (95% CI: 10.0-48.9%), 48.2% (95% CI: 30.6-61.4%), and 72.0% (95% CI: 43.6-86.1%). The adjusted IVE for H1N1, H3N2 and B (Victoria) were 71.1% (95% CI: 55.4-81.3%), 36.1% (95% CI: 14.6-52.2%) and 33.7% (95% CI: 14.6-48.5%). Influenza vaccination was effective in Chongqing from 2018 to 2022. Evaluating IVE in this area is feasible and should be conducted annually in the future.

Effectiveness of Enterovirus 71 inactivated vaccines against hand, foot, and mouth disease: A test-negative case-control study

The Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) vaccine was introduced in China in December 2015 as a preventive measure against hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by EV-A71. However, the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE) in real-world settings needs to be evaluated. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to assess the effectiveness of EV-A71 vaccines in preventing EV-A71-associated HFMD. Children aged 6-71 months with HFMD were enrolled as participants. The case group comprised those who tested positive for EV-A71, while the control group comprised those who tested negative for EV-A71. To estimate VE, a logistic regression model was employed, adjusting for potential confounders including age, gender, and clinical severity. In total, 3223 children aged 6 to 71 months were included in the study, with 162 in the case group and 3061 in the control group. The proportion of children who received EV-A71 vaccination was significantly lower in the case group compared to the control group (p < .001). The overall VEadj was estimated to be 90.8%. The VEadj estimates for partially and fully vaccinated children were 90.1% and 90.9%, respectively. Stratified by age group, the VEadj estimates were 88.7% for 6 to 35-month-olds and 95.5% for 36 to 71-month-olds. Regarding disease severity, the VEadj estimates were 86.3% for mild cases and 100% for severe cases. Sensitivity analysis showed minimal changes in the VE point estimates, with most changing by no more than 1% point. Our study demonstrates a high level of vaccine effectiveness against EV-A71-HFMD, especially in severe cases. Active promotion of EV-A71 vaccination is an effective strategy in preventing EV-A71 infections.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness and Progress Towards a Universal Influenza Vaccine

At various times in recent decades, surges have occurred in optimism about the potential for universal influenza vaccines that provide strong, broad, and long-lasting protection and could substantially reduce the disease burden associated with seasonal influenza epidemics as well as the threat posed by pandemic influenza. Each year more than 500 million doses of seasonal influenza vaccine are administered around the world, with most doses being egg-grown inactivated subunit or split-virion vaccines. These vaccines tend to have moderate effectiveness against medically attended influenza for influenza A(H1N1) and influenza B, and somewhat lower for influenza A(H3N2) where differences between vaccine strains and circulating strains can occur more frequently due to antigenic drift and egg adaptations in the vaccine strains. Several enhanced influenza vaccine platforms have been developed including cell-grown antigen, the inclusion of adjuvants, or higher antigen doses, to improve immunogenicity and protection. During the COVID-19 pandemic there was unprecedented speed in development and roll-out of relatively new vaccine platforms, including mRNA vaccines and viral vector vaccines. These new platforms present opportunities to improve protection for influenza beyond existing products. Other approaches continue to be explored. Incremental improvements in influenza vaccine performance should be achievable in the short to medium term.

Relative vaccine effectiveness of MF59-adjuvanted vs high-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines for prevention of test-confirmed influenza hospitalizations during the 2017-2020 influenza seasons

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (aTIV) vs high-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-TIV) for prevention of test-confirmed influenza emergency department visits and/or inpatient admissions ("ED/IP") and for IP admissions alone pooled across the 2017-2020 influenza seasons. Exploratory individual season analyses were also performed.

METHODS

This retrospective test-negative design study included United States (US) adults age ≥65 years vaccinated with aTIV or HD-TIV who presented to an ED or IP setting with acute respiratory or febrile illness during the 2017-2020 influenza seasons. Test-positive cases and test-negative controls were grouped by vaccine received. The rVE of aTIV vs HD-TIV was evaluated using a combination of inverse probability of treatment weighting and logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Pooled analyses over the three seasons found no significant differences in the rVE of aTIV vs HD-TIV for prevention of test-confirmed influenza ED/IP (-2.5% [-19.6, 12.2]) visits and admissions or IP admissions alone (-1.6% [-22.5, 15.7]). The exploratory individual season analyses also showed no significant differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from the 2017-2020 influenza seasons indicates aTIV and HD-TIV are comparable for prevention of test-confirmed influenza ED/IP visits in US adults age ≥65 years.

Effectiveness of rVSV-ZEBOV vaccination during the 2018-20 Ebola virus disease epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a retrospective test-negative study

BACKGROUND

The recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-Zaire Ebola virus (rVSV-ZEBOV) vaccine is the only WHO prequalified vaccine recommended for use to respond to outbreaks of Ebola virus (species Zaire ebolavirus) by WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization. Despite the vaccine's widespread use during several outbreaks, no real-world effectiveness estimates are currently available in the literature.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective test-negative analysis to estimate effectiveness of rVSV-ZEBOV vaccination against Ebola virus disease during the 2018-20 epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, using data on suspected Ebola virus disease cases collected from Ebola treatment centres. Those eligible for inclusion had an available Ebola virus RT-PCR result, available key data, were eligible for vaccination during the outbreak, and had symptom onset aligning with the period in which a ring-vaccination protocol was in use. After imputing missing data, each individual confirmed by RT-PCR to be Ebola virus disease-positive (defined as a case) was matched to one individual negative for Ebola virus disease (control) by sex, age, health zone, and month of symptom onset. Effectiveness was estimated from the odds ratio of being vaccinated (≥10 days before symptom onset) versus being unvaccinated among cases and controls, after adjusting for the matching factors. The imputation, matching and effectiveness estimation, was repeated 500 times.

FINDINGS

1273 (4·8%) of 26 438 eligible individuals were positive for Ebola virus disease (cases) and 25 165 (95·2%) were negative (controls). 40 (3·1%) cases and 1271 (5·1%) controls were reported as being vaccinated at least 10 days before symptom onset. After selecting individuals who reported exposure to an individual with Ebola virus disease within the 21 days before symptom onset and matching, the analysis datasets comprised a median of 309 cases and 309 controls. 10 days or more after vaccination, the effectiveness of rVSV-ZEBOV against Ebola virus disease was estimated to be 84% (95% credible interval 70-92).

INTERPRETATION

This analysis is the first to provide estimates of the real-world effectiveness of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine against Ebola virus disease, amid the widespread use of the vaccine during a large Ebola virus disease outbreak. Our findings confirm that rVSV-ZEBOV is highly protective against Ebola virus disease and support its use during outbreaks, even in challenging contexts such as in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

FUNDING

Médecins Sans Frontières.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Levels Associated With COVID-19 Protection in Outpatients Tested for SARS-CoV-2, US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network, October 2021-June 2022

BACKGROUND

We assessed associations between binding antibody (bAb) concentration <5 days from symptom onset and testing positive for COVID-19 among patients in a test-negative study.

METHODS

From October 2021 to June 2022, study sites in 7 states enrolled patients aged ≥6 months presenting with acute respiratory illness. Respiratory specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2. In blood specimens, we measured concentrations of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies against the spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid antigens from the ancestral strain in standardized bAb units (BAU). Percentage change in odds of COVID-19 by increasing anti-RBD bAb was estimated via logistic regression as (1 - adjusted odds ratio of COVID-19) × 100, adjusting for COVID-19 mRNA vaccine doses, age, site, and high-risk exposure.

RESULTS

Out of 2018 symptomatic patients, 662 (33%) tested positive for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Geometric mean RBD bAb levels were lower among COVID-19 cases than SARS-CoV-2 test-negative controls during the Delta-predominant period (112 vs 498 BAU/mL) and Omicron-predominant period (823 vs 1189 BAU/mL). Acute-phase ancestral spike RBD bAb levels associated with 50% lower odds of COVID-19 were 1968 BAU/mL against Delta and 3375 BAU/mL against Omicron; thresholds may differ in other laboratories.

CONCLUSIONS

During acute illness, antibody concentrations against ancestral spike RBD were associated with protection against COVID-19.

Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: applying the test-negative study design

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to use infection testing databases to rapidly estimate effectiveness of prior infection in preventing reinfection ($P{E}_S$) by novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Mathematical modeling was used to demonstrate a theoretical foundation for applicability of the test-negative, case-control study design to derive $P{E}_S$. Apart from the very early phase of an epidemic, the difference between the test-negative estimate for $P{E}_S$ and true value of $P{E}_S$ was minimal and became negligible as the epidemic progressed. The test-negative design provided robust estimation of $P{E}_S$ and its waning. Assuming that only 25% of prior infections are documented, misclassification of prior infection status underestimated $P{E}_S$, but the underestimate was considerable only when > 50% of the population was ever infected. Misclassification of latent infection, misclassification of current active infection, and scale-up of vaccination all resulted in negligible bias in estimated $P{E}_S$. The test-negative design was applied to national-level testing data in Qatar to estimate $P{E}_S$ for SARS-CoV-2. $P{E}_S$ against SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Beta variants was estimated at 97.0% (95% CI, 93.6-98.6) and 85.5% (95% CI, 82.4-88.1), respectively. These estimates were validated using a cohort study design. The test-negative design offers a feasible, robust method to estimate protection from prior infection in preventing reinfection.

Effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza among Chinese elderly: a test-negative design

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in the elderly is limited, and results are controversial. There are also few reports from China.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative case-control study design to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated visits among elderly (aged ≥ 60 years) across four influenza seasons in Ningbo, China, from 2018 to 19 to 2021-22. Influenza-positive cases and negative controls were randomly matched in a 1:1 ratio according to age, sex, hospital, and date of influenza testing. We used logistic regression models to compare vaccination odds ratios (ORs) in cases to controls. We calculated the VE as [100% × (1-adjusted OR)] and calculated the 95% confidence interval (CI) around the estimate.

RESULTS

A total of 30,630 elderly patients tested for influenza with virus nucleic acid or antigen during the study period. After exclusions, we included 1 825 influenza-positive cases and 1 825 influenza-negative controls. Overall, the adjusted VE for influenza-related visits was 63.5% (95% CI, 56.3-69.5%), but varied by season. Influenza VE was 59.8% (95% CI, 51.5-66.7%) for influenza A and 89.6% (95% CI, 77.1-95.3%) for influenza B. The VE for ages 60-69 and 70-79 was 65.2% (95% CI, 55.4-72.9%) and 69.8% (95% CI, 58.7-77.9%), respectively, but only 45.4% (95% CI, 6.2-68.2%) for ages 80 and over.

CONCLUSIONS

Standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine has shown good protection in the elderly in China. However, protection may not be satisfactory in people aged 80 years and older.

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation

BACKGROUND

Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumulating, can generate large-scale clusters of severe infections that could be devastating to those most at risk, whilst also conceivably leading to chains of mild or asymptomatic infections that generate widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Although this effect could be harnessed to amplify the impact of interventions that reduce symptom severity, the mechanistic representation of symptom propagation within mathematical and health economic modelling of respiratory diseases is understudied.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a novel framework for incorporating different levels of symptom propagation into models of infectious disease transmission via a single parameter, α. Varying α tunes the model from having no symptom propagation (α = 0, as typically assumed) to one where symptoms always propagate (α = 1). For parameters corresponding to three respiratory pathogens-seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2-we explored how symptom propagation impacted the relative epidemiological and health-economic performance of three interventions, conceptualised as vaccines with different actions: symptom-attenuating (labelled SA), infection-blocking (IB) and infection-blocking admitting only mild breakthrough infections (IB_MB). In the absence of interventions, with fixed underlying epidemiological parameters, stronger symptom propagation increased the proportion of cases that were severe. For SA and IB_MB, interventions were more effective at reducing prevalence (all infections and severe cases) for higher strengths of symptom propagation. For IB, symptom propagation had no impact on effectiveness, and for seasonal influenza this intervention type was more effective than SA at reducing severe infections for all strengths of symptom propagation. For pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2, at low intervention uptake, SA was more effective than IB for all levels of symptom propagation; for high uptake, SA only became more effective under strong symptom propagation. Health economic assessments found that, for SA-type interventions, the amount one could spend on control whilst maintaining a cost-effective intervention (termed threshold unit intervention cost) was very sensitive to the strength of symptom propagation.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the preferred intervention type depended on the combination of the strength of symptom propagation and uptake. Given the importance of determining robust public health responses, we highlight the need to gather further data on symptom propagation, with our modelling framework acting as a template for future analysis.

Relative Vaccine Effectiveness of Cell- vs Egg-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Against Test-Confirmed Influenza Over 3 Seasons Between 2017 and 2020 in the United States

Background

Influenza vaccine viruses grown in eggs may acquire egg-adaptive mutations that may reduce antigenic similarity between vaccine and circulating influenza viruses and decrease vaccine effectiveness. We compared cell- and egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc and QIVe, respectively) for preventing test-confirmed influenza over 3 US influenza seasons (2017-2020).

Methods

Using a retrospective test-negative design, we estimated the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of QIVc vs QIVe among individuals aged 4 to 64 years who had an acute respiratory or febrile illness and were tested for influenza in routine outpatient care. Exposure, outcome, and covariate data were obtained from electronic health records linked to pharmacy and medical claims. Season-specific rVE was estimated by comparing the odds of testing positive for influenza among QIVc vs QIVe recipients. Models were adjusted for age, sex, geographic region, influenza test date, and additional unbalanced covariates. A doubly robust approach was used combining inverse probability of treatment weights with multivariable regression.

Results

The study included 31 824, 33 388, and 34 398 patients in the 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 seasons, respectively; ∼10% received QIVc and ∼90% received QIVe. QIVc demonstrated superior effectiveness vs QIVe in prevention of test-confirmed influenza: rVEs were 14.8% (95% CI, 7.0%-22.0%) in 2017-2018, 12.5% (95% CI, 4.7%-19.6%) in 2018-2019, and 10.0% (95% CI, 2.7%-16.7%) in 2019-2020.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated consistently superior effectiveness of QIVc vs QIVe in preventing test-confirmed influenza over 3 seasons characterized by different circulating viruses and degrees of egg adaptation.

The impact of underreported infections on vaccine effectiveness estimates derived from retrospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Surveillance data and vaccination registries are widely used to provide real-time vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates, which can be biased due to underreported (i.e. under-ascertained and under-notified) infections. Here, we investigate how the magnitude and direction of this source of bias in retrospective cohort studies vary under different circumstances, including different levels of underreporting, heterogeneities in underreporting across vaccinated and unvaccinated, and different levels of pathogen circulation.

METHODS

We developed a stochastic individual-based model simulating the transmission dynamics of a respiratory virus and a large-scale vaccination campaign. Considering a baseline scenario with 22.5% yearly attack rate and 30% reporting ratio, we explored fourteen alternative scenarios, each modifying one or more baseline assumptions. Using synthetic individual-level surveillance data and vaccination registries produced by the model, we estimated the VE against documented infection taking as reference either unvaccinated or recently vaccinated individuals (within 14 days post-administration). Bias was quantified by comparing estimates to the known VE assumed in the model.

RESULTS

VE estimates were accurate when assuming homogeneous reporting ratios, even at low levels (10%), and moderate attack rates (<50%). A substantial downward bias in the estimation arose with homogeneous reporting and attack rates exceeding 50%. Mild heterogeneities in reporting ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated strongly biased VE estimates, downward if cases in vaccinated were more likely to be reported and upward otherwise, particularly when taking as reference unvaccinated individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

In observational studies, high attack rates or differences in underreporting between vaccinated and unvaccinated may result in biased VE estimates. This study underscores the critical importance of monitoring data quality and understanding biases in observational studies, to more adequately inform public health decisions.

Effectiveness of enterovirus A71 vaccine against pediatric HFMD and disease profile of post-vaccination infection

BACKGROUND

Vaccination has been proven effective against infection with enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) in clinical trials, but vaccine effectiveness in real-world situations remains incompletely understood. Furthermore, it is not clear whether previous vaccination will result in symptom attenuation among post-vaccinated cases.

METHODS

Based on long-term data extracted from the only designed referral hospital for infectious diseases, we used a test-negative case-control design and multivariate logistic regression models to analyze the effectiveness of EV-A71 vaccine against hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). And then, generalized linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations between prior vaccination and disease profiles.

RESULTS

We selected 4883 inpatients for vaccine efficacy estimations and 2188 inpatients for disease profile comparisons. Vaccine effectiveness against EV-A71-induced HFMD for complete vaccination was 63.4 % and 51.7 % for partial vaccination. The vaccine effectiveness was higher among cases received the first dose within 12 months. No protection was observed against coxsackievirus (CV) A6-, CV-A10- or CV-A16-associated HFMD among children regardless of vaccination status. Completely vaccinated cases had shorter hospital stay and disease course compared to unvaccinated cases (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reiterate the need to continue the development of a multivalent vaccine or combined vaccines, and have implications for introducing optimized vaccination strategies.

Early estimates of nirsevimab immunoprophylaxis effectiveness against hospital admission for respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infections in infants, Spain, October 2023 to January 2024

The monoclonal antibody nirsevimab was at least 70% effective in preventing hospitalisations in infants with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) positive for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Spain (Oct 2023-Jan 2024), where a universal immunisation programme began late September (coverage range: 79-99%). High protection was confirmed by two methodological designs (screening and test-negative) in a multicentre active surveillance in nine hospitals in three regions. No protection against RSV-negative LRTI-hospitalisations was shown. These interim results could guide public-health decision-making.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalisation in Latin America during three pandemic waves, 2021-2022: a test-negative case-control design

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is essential to monitor the performance of vaccines and generate strategic information to guide decision making. We pooled data from six Latin American countries to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalisation during three different pandemic waves from February 2021 to September 2022.

Methods

We used a test-negative case-control design in hospitalised adults in Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Uruguay. We estimated adjusted VE by age group (18-64 and ≥65 years), vaccine type and product for primary series vaccination and booster vaccination and by time since last dose during the Omicron variant dominant period. We used mixed effects logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, week of onset of symptom onset and pre-existing conditions with country fit as a random effect term.

Findings

We included 15,241 severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) patients in the analysis. Among adults 18-64 years, VE estimates for primary series vaccination during pre-Delta and Delta periods ranged by product from 66.5% to 95.1% and from 33.5% to 88.2% for older adults. During the Omicron period, VE estimates for primary series were lower and decreased by time since last vaccination, but VE increased to between 26.4% and 57.4% when a booster was administered.

Interpretation

mRNA and viral vector vaccines presented higher VE for both primary series and booster. While VE decreased over time, protection against severe COVID-19-associated hospitalisation increased when booster doses were administered. Vaccination with additional doses should be recommended, particularly for persons at increased risk of developing severe COVID-19.

Funding

This work was supported by a grant from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through cooperative agreements with the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization.

Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention Drug Levels and Drug Resistance Markers in Children With or Without Malaria in Burkina Faso: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Despite scale-up of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine (SP-AQ) in children 3-59 months of age in Burkina Faso, malaria incidence remains high, raising concerns regarding SMC effectiveness and selection of drug resistance. Using a case-control design, we determined associations between SMC drug levels, drug resistance markers, and presentation with malaria.

METHODS

We enrolled 310 children presenting at health facilities in Bobo-Dioulasso. Cases were SMC-eligible children 6-59 months of age diagnosed with malaria. Two controls were enrolled per case: SMC-eligible children without malaria; and older (5-10 years old), SMC-ineligible children with malaria. We measured SP-AQ drug levels among SMC-eligible children and SP-AQ resistance markers among parasitemic children. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios (ORs) comparing drug levels between cases and controls.

RESULTS

Compared to SMC-eligible controls, children with malaria were less likely to have any detectable SP or AQ (OR, 0.33 [95% confidence interval, .16-.67]; P = .002) and have lower drug levels (P < .05). Prevalences of mutations mediating high-level SP resistance were rare (0%-1%) and similar between cases and SMC-ineligible controls (P > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Incident malaria among SMC-eligible children was likely due to suboptimal levels of SP-AQ, resulting from missed cycles rather than increased antimalarial resistance to SP-AQ.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Levels Associated with COVID-19 Protection in Outpatients Tested for SARS-CoV-2, US Flu VE Network, October 2021-June 2022

Background

We assessed the association between antibody concentration ≤5 days of symptom onset and COVID-19 illness among patients enrolled in a test-negative study.

Methods

From October 2021-June 2022, study sites in seven states enrolled and tested respiratory specimens from patients of all ages presenting with acute respiratory illness for SARS-CoV-2 infection using rRT-PCR. In blood specimens, we measured concentration of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies against the ancestral strain spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid (N) antigens in standardized binding antibody units (BAU/mL). Percent reduction in odds of symptomatic COVID-19 by anti-RBD antibody was estimated using logistic regression modeled as (1-adjusted odds ratio of COVID-19)×100, adjusting for COVID-19 vaccination status, age, site, and high-risk exposure.

Results

A total of 662 (33%) of 2,018 symptomatic patients tested positive for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. During the Omicron-predominant period, geometric mean anti-RBD binding antibody concentrations measured 823 BAU/mL (95%CI:690-981) among COVID-19 case-patients versus 1,189 BAU/mL (95%CI:1,050-1,347) among SARS-CoV-2 test-negative patients. In the adjusted logistic regression, increasing levels of anti-RBD antibodies were associated with reduced odds of COVID-19 for both Delta and Omicron infections.

Conclusion

Higher anti-RBD antibodies in patients were associated with protection against symptomatic COVID-19 during emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Cases and Hospitalizations in Navarre, Spain, 2022-2023

We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing outpatient and hospitalized cases in the 2022-2023 season. A test-negative design included a representative sample of outpatients and all hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) from October 2022 to May 2023 in Navarre, Spain. ILI patients were tested by PCR for influenza virus. Influenza vaccination status was compared between confirmed influenza cases and test-negative controls. Among 3321 ILI patients tested, IVE to prevent influenza cases was 34% (95% confidence interval (CI): 16 to 48) overall, 85% (95%CI: 63 to 94) against influenza B, and 28% (95%CI: 3 to 46) against A(H3N2). Among 558 outpatients, 222 (40%) were confirmed for influenza: 55% A(H3N2), 11% A(H1N1), and 31% B. Overall, IVE to prevent outpatient cases was 48% (95%CI: 8 to 70), 88% (95%CI: 3 to 98) against influenza B, and 50% (95%CI: -4 to 76) against A(H3N2). Of 2763 hospitalized patients, 349 (13%) were positive for influenza: 64% A(H3N2), 17% A(H1N1), and 8% B. IVE to prevent hospitalization was 24% (95%CI: -1 to 42) overall, 82% (95%CI: 49 to 93) against influenza B, and 16% (95%CI: -17 to 40) against A(H3N2). No IVE was observed in preventing influenza A(H1N1). IVE was high to prevent influenza B, moderate against A(H3N2) and null against A(H1N1). A lower proportion of influenza B cases may explain the smaller IVE in hospitalized patients than in outpatients. The null IVE against A(H1N1) was consistent with the observed antigenic drift and supports the new composition of the 2023-2024 influenza vaccine.

The need for a clinical case definition in test-negative design studies estimating vaccine effectiveness

Test negative studies have been used extensively for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Such studies are able to estimate VE against medically-attended illness under certain assumptions. Selection bias may be present if the probability of participation is associated with vaccination or COVID-19, but this can be mitigated through use of a clinical case definition to screen patients for eligibility, which increases the likelihood that cases and non-cases come from the same source population. We examined the extent to which this type of bias could harm COVID-19 VE through systematic review and simulation. A systematic review of test-negative studies was re-analysed to identify studies ignoring the need for clinical criteria. Studies using a clinical case definition had a lower pooled VE estimate compared with studies that did not. Simulations varied the probability of selection by case and vaccination status. Positive bias away from the null (i.e., inflated VE consistent with the systematic review) was observed when there was a higher proportion of healthy, vaccinated non-cases, which may occur if a dataset contains many results from asymptomatic screening in settings where vaccination coverage is high. We provide an html tool for researchers to explore site-specific sources of selection bias in their own studies. We recommend all groups consider the potential for selection bias in their vaccine effectiveness studies, particularly when using administrative data.

COVID-19 Vaccination Effectiveness in the General Population of an Italian Province: Two Years of Follow-Up

We carried out a cohort study on the overall population of the province of Pescara, Italy, to assess the real-world effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination against infection, severe, or lethal COVID-19, two years after the start of the vaccination campaign. We included all the resident or domiciled subjects, and extracted the official demographic, vaccination, COVID-19, hospital and co-pay exemption datasets from 1 January 2021, up to 15 February 2023. Cox proportional hazards analyses were adjusted for gender, age, diabetes, hypertension, COPD, major cardio- and cerebrovascular events, cancer, and kidney diseases. Throughout the follow-up (466 days on average), 186,676 subjects received greater than or equal to three vaccine doses (of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, NVX-CoV2373, or JNJ-78436735), 47,610 two doses, 11,452 one dose, and 44,989 none. Overall, 40.4% of subjects were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of them, 2.74% had severe or lethal (1.30%) COVID-19. As compared to the unvaccinated, the individuals who received greater than or equal to one booster dose showed a ≥85% lower risk of severe or lethal COVID-19. A massive impact of vaccination was found among the elderly: 22.0% of the unvaccinated, infected individuals died, as opposed to less than 3% of those who received greater than or equal to three vaccine doses. No protection against infection was observed, although this finding was certainly influenced by the Italian restriction policies to control the pandemic. Importantly, during the Omicron predominance period, only the group who received at least a booster dose showed a reduced risk of COVID-19-related death.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Persons Aged 15-64 Years: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Influenza is a respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which is highly transmissible in humans. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and test-negative designs (TNDs) to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines (SIVs) in humans aged 15 to 64 years. An electronic search to identify all relevant studies was performed. The outcome measure of interest was VE on laboratory-confirmed influenza (any strain). Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for TNDs. The search identified a total of 2993 records, but only 123 studies from 73 papers were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 9 were RCTs and 116 were TNDs. The pooled VE was 48% (95% CI: 42-54) for RCTs, 55.4% (95% CI: 43.2-64.9) when there was a match between the vaccine and most prevalent circulating strains and 39.3% (95% CI: 23.5-51.9) otherwise. The TNDs' adjusted VE was equal to 39.9% (95% CI: 31-48), 45.1 (95% CI: 38.7-50.8) when there was a match and 35.1 (95% CI: 29.0-40.7) otherwise. The match between strains included in the vaccine and strains in circulation is the most important factor in the VE. It increases by more than 25% when there is a match with the most prevalent circulating strains. The laboratorial method for confirmation of influenza is a possible source of bias when estimating VE.

Revisiting assumptions in test-negative studies for estimating vaccine effectiveness: the need for a clinical case definition

Test negative studies have been used extensively for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Such studies are able to estimate VE against medically-attended illness under certain assumptions. Selection bias may be present if the probability of participation is associated with vaccination or COVID-19, but this can be mitigated through use of a clinical case definition to screen patients for eligibility, which increases the likelihood that cases and non-cases come from the same source population. We examined the extent to which this type of bias could harm COVID-19 VE through systematic review and simulation. A systematic review of test-negative studies was re-analysed to identify studies ignoring the need for clinical criteria. Studies using a clinical case definition had a lower pooled VE estimate compared with studies that did not. Simulations varied the probability of selection by case and vaccination status. Positive bias away from the null (i.e., inflated VE consistent with the systematic review) was observed when there was a higher proportion of healthy, vaccinated non-cases, which may occur if a dataset contains many results from asymptomatic screening in settings where vaccination coverage is high. We provide an html tool for researchers to explore site-specific sources of selection bias in their own studies. We recommend all group consider the potential for selection bias in their vaccine effectiveness studies, particularly when using administrative data.

Addressing misclassification bias in vaccine effectiveness studies with an application to Covid-19

Safe and effective vaccines are crucial for the control of Covid-19 and to protect individuals at higher risk of severe disease. The test-negative design is a popular option for evaluating the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines. However, the findings could be biased by several factors, including imperfect sensitivity and/or specificity of the test used for diagnosing the SARS-Cov-2 infection. We propose a simple Bayesian modeling approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness that is robust even when the diagnostic test is imperfect. We use simulation studies to demonstrate the robustness of our method to misclassification bias and illustrate the utility of our approach using real-world examples.

Investigating confounding in network-based test-negative design influenza vaccine effectiveness studies-Experience from the DRIVE project

BACKGROUND

Establishing a large study network to conduct influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) studies while collecting appropriate variables to account for potential bias is important; the most relevant variables should be prioritized. We explored the impact of potential confounders on IVE in the DRIVE multi-country network of sites conducting test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We constructed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to map the relationship between influenza vaccination, medically attended influenza infection, confounders, and other variables. Additionally, we used the Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccines Effectiveness (DRIVE) data from the 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 seasons to explore the effect of covariate adjustment on IVE estimates. The reference model was adjusted for age, sex, calendar time, and season. The covariates studied were presence of at least one, two, or three chronic diseases; presence of six specific chronic diseases; and prior healthcare use. Analyses were conducted by site and subsequently pooled.

RESULTS

The following variables were included in the DAG: age, sex, time within influenza season and year, health status and comorbidities, study site, health-care-seeking behavior, contact patterns and social precautionary behavior, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing immunity. Across all age groups and settings, only adjustment for lung disease in older adults in the primary care setting resulted in a relative change of the IVE point estimate >10%.

CONCLUSION

Our study supports a parsimonious approach to confounder adjustment in TND studies, limited to adjusting for age, sex, and calendar time. Practical implications are that necessitating fewer variables lowers the threshold for enrollment of sites in IVE studies and simplifies the pooling of data from different IVE studies or study networks.

Effectiveness of Messenger RNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines Against Symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infections During the Delta Variant Epidemic in Japan: Vaccine Effectiveness Real-time Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (VERSUS)

BACKGROUND

Although high vaccine effectiveness of messenger RNA (mRNA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines has been reported in studies in several countries, data are limited from Asian countries, especially against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter test-negative case-control study in patients aged ≥16 years visiting hospitals or clinics with signs or symptoms consistent with COVID-19 from 1 July to 30 September 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant (≥90% of SARS-CoV-2 infections) nationwide in Japan. Vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections was evaluated. Waning immunity among patients aged 16-64 years was also assessed.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1936 patients, including 396 test-positive cases and 1540 test-negative controls for SARS-CoV-2. The median age was 49 years, 53.4% were male, and 34.0% had underlying medical conditions. Full vaccination (receiving 2 doses ≥14 days before symptom onset) was received by 6.6% of cases and 38.8% of controls. Vaccine effectiveness of full vaccination against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections was 88.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 78.8%-93.9%) among patients aged 16-64 years and 90.3% (95% CI, 73.6%-96.4%) among patients aged ≥65 years. Among patients aged 16-64 years, vaccine effectiveness was 91.8% (95% CI, 80.3%-96.6%) within 1-3 months after full vaccination, and 86.4% (95% CI, 56.9%-95.7%) within 4-6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

mRNA COVID-19 vaccines had high effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan during July-September 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant nationwide.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination on in-hospital death in older adults with respiratory diseases

Influenza vaccination is associated with lower risk of hospitalization outcomes among older adults with respiratory diseases, but there is limited evidence by disease subtypes and patients' characteristics. This study included patients aged ≥60 years hospitalized for respiratory diseases from the Beijing Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance database during 6 influenza seasons. Vaccination status was assessed by linking with the Beijing Elderly Influenza Vaccination database. Multi-variable logistic regression was performed to calculate effect estimates. After adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders, influenza vaccination was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital death among older adults hospitalized for respiratory diseases (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.70 [0.62-0.80]). The protective association was observed among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.67 [0.47-0.98]) as well as those with pneumonia or influenza (0.77 [0.64-0.93]). The protective association was stronger in younger patients (0.59 [0.43-0.81] for <75 and 0.72 [0.63-0.83] for ≥75) and those with fewer comorbidities (0.49 [0.16-1.62] for 0, 0.65 [0.50-0.86] for 1-2, and 0.72 [0.63-0.83] for ≥3 comorbidities). Influenza vaccination was associated with lower risk of in-hospital death among older patients hospitalized for respiratory diseases, with stronger associations in patients with younger age and fewer comorbidities.

Live-attenuated influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in children aged 2-6 years, the first three seasons of the childhood influenza vaccination program in England, 2013/14-2015/16

INTRODUCTION

In 2013, the United Kingdom began to roll-out a universal annual influenza vaccination program for children. An important component of any new vaccination program is measuring its effectiveness. Live-attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) have since shown mixed results with vaccine effectiveness (VE) varying across seasons and countries elsewhere. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children against severe disease during the first three seasons of the LAIV program in England.

METHODS

Using the screening method, LAIV vaccination coverage in children hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection was compared with vaccination coverage in 2-6-year-olds in the general population to estimate VE in 2013/14-2015/16.

RESULTS

The overall LAIV VE, adjusted for age group, week/month and geographical area, for all influenza types pooled over the three influenza seasons was 50.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31.2, 63.8). By age, there was evidence of protection against hospitalization from influenza vaccination in both the pre-school (2-4-year-olds) (48.1%, 95% CI 27.2, 63.1) and school-aged children (5-6-year-olds) (62.6%, 95% CI 2.6, 85.6) over the three seasons.

CONCLUSION

LAIV vaccination in children provided moderate annual protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in England over the three influenza seasons. This study contributes further to the limited literature to date on influenza VE against severe disease in children.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization due to SARS-CoV-2: A test-negative design study based on Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) sentinel surveillance in Spain

Background

With the emergence of SARS‐CoV‐2, influenza surveillance systems in Spain were transformed into a new syndromic sentinel surveillance system. The Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System (SiVIRA in Spanish) is based on a sentinel network for acute respiratory infection (ARI) surveillance in primary care and a network of sentinel hospitals for severe ARI (SARI) surveillance in hospitals.

Methods

Using a test‐negative design and data from SARI admissions notified to SiVIRA between January 1 and October 3, 2021, we estimated COVID‐19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalization, by age group, vaccine type, time since vaccination, and SARS‐CoV‐2 variant.

Results

VE was 89% (95% CI: 83–93) against COVID‐19 hospitalization overall in persons aged 20 years and older. VE was higher for mRNA vaccines, and lower for those aged 80 years and older, with a decrease in protection beyond 3 months of completing vaccination, and a further decrease after 5 months. We found no differences between periods with circulation of Alpha or Delta SARS‐CoV‐2 variants, although variant‐specific VE was slightly higher against Alpha.

Conclusions

The SiVIRA sentinel hospital surveillance network in Spain was able to describe clinical and epidemiological characteristics of SARI hospitalizations and provide estimates of COVID‐19 VE in the population under surveillance. Our estimates add to evidence of high effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against severe COVID‐19 and waning of protection with time since vaccination in those aged 80 or older. No substantial differences were observed between SARS‐CoV‐2 variants (Alpha vs. Delta).

Vaccines for Covid-19: An Insight on Their Effectiveness and Adverse Effects

An Era of SARS-COVID-19 out broke with a high contagious percentage around the globe has been the subject of multi-agency research aimed at generating vaccines for active immunization. Scientists across the world are joining hands for the advanced tie-ups between the medical start-ups and the pharmaceutical industries for devices and vaccines development to hinder the progress of this outbreak. Moreover, the questions that need to be answered are how to improve the effectiveness and efficacy of vaccines with reduced side effects and the required doses of vaccines for enhanced surveillance. In this review article, we have discussed the effectiveness and efficacy of different Covid-19 vaccines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Potential test-negative design study bias in outbreak settings: application to Ebola vaccination in Democratic Republic of Congo

BACKGROUND

Infectious disease outbreaks present unique challenges to study designs for vaccine evaluation. Test-negative design (TND) studies have previously been used to estimate vaccine effectiveness and have been proposed for Ebola virus disease (EVD) vaccines. However, there are key differences in how cases and controls are recruited during outbreaks and pandemics of novel pathogens, whcih have implications for the reliability of effectiveness estimates using this design.

METHODS

We use a modelling approach to quantify TND bias for a prophylactic vaccine under varying study and epidemiological scenarios. Our model accounts for heterogeneity in vaccine distribution and for two potential routes to testing and recruitment into the study: self-reporting and contact-tracing. We derive conventional and hybrid TND estimators for this model and suggest ways to translate public health response data into the parameters of the model.

RESULTS

Using a conventional TND study, our model finds biases in vaccine effectiveness estimates. Bias arises due to differential recruitment from self-reporting and contact-tracing, and due to clustering of vaccination. We estimate the degree of bias when recruitment route is not available, and propose a study design to eliminate the bias if recruitment route is recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

Hybrid TND studies can resolve the design bias with conventional TND studies applied to outbreak and pandemic response testing data, if those efforts collect individuals' routes to testing. Without route to testing, other epidemiological data will be required to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in a conventional TND study. Since these studies may need to be conducted retrospectively, public health responses should obtain these data, and generic protocols for outbreak and pandemic response studies should emphasize the need to record routes to testing.

Human Influenza Epidemiology

Influenza virus infections are common in people of all ages. Epidemics occur in the winter months in temperate locations and at varying times of the year in subtropical and tropical locations. Most influenza virus infections cause mild and self-limiting disease, and around one-half of all infections occur with a fever. Only a small minority of infections lead to serious disease requiring hospitalization. During epidemics, the rates of influenza virus infections are typically highest in school-age children. The clinical severity of infections tends to increase at the extremes of age and with the presence of underlying medical conditions, and impact of epidemics is greatest in these groups. Vaccination is the most effective measure to prevent infections, and in recent years influenza vaccines have become the most frequently used vaccines in the world. Nonpharmaceutical public health measures can also be effective in reducing transmission, allowing suppression or mitigation of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

Safety, Immunogenicity, Efficacy and Effectiveness of Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Healthy Pregnant Women and Children Under 5 Years: An Evidence-Based Clinical Review

Annual influenza vaccination is often recommended for pregnant women and young children to reduce the risk of severe influenza. However, most studies investigating the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy or effectiveness of influenza vaccines are conducted in healthy adults. In this evidence-based clinical review, we provide an update on the safety profile, immunogenicity, and efficacy/effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs) in healthy pregnant women and children <5 years old. Six electronic databases were searched until May 27, 2021. We identified 3,731 articles, of which 93 met the eligibility criteria and were included. The IIVs were generally well tolerated in pregnant women and young children, with low frequencies of adverse events following IIV administration; however, continuous vaccine safety monitoring systems are necessary to detect rare adverse events. IIVs generated good antibody responses, and the seroprotection rates after IIVs were moderate to high in pregnant women (range = 65%-96%) and young children (range = 50%-100%), varying between the different influenza types/subtypes and seasons. Studies show vaccine efficacy/effectiveness values of 50%-70% in pregnant women and 20%-90% in young children against lab-confirmed influenza, although the efficacy/effectiveness depended on the study design, host factors, vaccine type, manufacturing practices, and the antigenic match/mismatch between the influenza vaccine strains and the circulating strains. Current evidence suggests that the benefits of IIVs far outweigh the potential risks and that IIVs should be recommended for pregnant women and young children.

The Causal Interpretation of "Overall Vaccine Effectiveness" in Test-Negative Studies

Test-negative studies are commonly used to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). In a typical study, an "overall VE" estimate based on data from the entire sample may be reported. However, there may be heterogeneity in VE, particularly by age. Therefore, in this article we discuss the potential for a weighted average of age-specific VE estimates to provide a more meaningful measure of overall VE. We illustrate this perspective first using simulations to evaluate how overall VE would be biased when certain age groups are overrepresented. We found that unweighted overall VE estimates tended to be higher than weighted VE estimates when children were overrepresented and lower when elderly persons were overrepresented. Then we extracted published estimates from the US Flu VE network, in which children are overrepresented, and some discrepancy between unweighted and weighted overall VE was observed. Differences in weighted versus unweighted overall VE estimates could translate to substantial differences in the interpretation of individual risk reduction among vaccinated persons and in the total averted disease burden at the population level. Weighting of overall estimates should be considered in VE studies in the future.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness within prospective cohorts of healthcare personnel in Israel and Peru 2016-2019

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among healthcare personnel (HCP).

METHODS

HCP with direct patient contact working full-time in hospitals were followed during three influenza seasons in Israel (2016-2017 to 2018-2019) and Peru (2016 to 2018). Trivalent influenza vaccines were available at all sites, except during 2018-2019 when Israel used quadrivalent vaccines; vaccination was documented by electronic medical records, vaccine registries, and/or self-report (for vaccinations outside the hospital). Twice-weekly active surveillance identified acute respiratory symptoms or febrile illness (ARFI); self-collected respiratory specimens were tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. IVE was 100 × 1-hazard ratio (adjusted for sex, age, occupation, and hospital).

RESULTS

Among 5,489 HCP who contributed 10,041 person-seasons, influenza vaccination coverage was 47% in Israel and 32% in Peru. Of 3,056 ARFIs in Israel and 3,538 in Peru, A or B influenza virus infections were identified in 205 (7%) in Israel and 87 (2.5%) in Peru. IVE against all viruses across seasons was 1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -30%, 25%) in Israel and 12% (95% CI = -61%, 52%) in Peru.

CONCLUSION

Estimates of IVE were null using person-time models during six study seasons in Israel and Peru.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against All-Cause Mortality Following Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in Older Adults, 2010-2011 to 2015-2016 Seasons in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Older adults are at increased risk of mortality from influenza infections. We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against mortality following laboratory-confirmed influenza.

METHODS

Using a test-negative design study and linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we estimated VE against all-cause mortality following laboratory-confirmed influenza for community-dwelling adults aged >65 years during the 2010-2011 to 2015-2016 influenza seasons.

RESULTS

Among 54 116 older adults tested for influenza across the 6 seasons, 6837 died within 30 days of specimen collection. Thirteen percent (925 individuals) tested positive for influenza, and 50.6% were considered vaccinated for that season. Only 23.2% of influenza test-positive cases had influenza recorded as their underlying cause of death. Before and after multivariable adjustment, we estimated VE against all-cause mortality following laboratory-confirmed influenza to be 20% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-30%) and 20% (95% CI, 7%-30%), respectively. This estimate increased to 34% after correcting for influenza vaccination exposure misclassification. We observed significant VE against deaths following influenza confirmation during 2014-2015 (VE = 26% [95% CI, 5%-42%]). We also observed significant VE against deaths following confirmation of influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, and against deaths with COPD as the underlying cause.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the importance of influenza vaccination in older adults, who account for most influenza-associated deaths annually.

Adjustment for Disease Severity in the Test-Negative Study Design

The test-negative study design is often used to estimate vaccine effectiveness in influenza studies, but it has also been proposed in the context of other infectious diseases, such as cholera, dengue, or Ebola. It was introduced as a variation of the case-control design, in an attempt to reduce confounding bias due to health-care-seeking behavior, and has quickly gained popularity because of its logistic advantages. However, examination of the directed acyclic graphs that describe the test-negative design reveals that without strong assumptions, the estimated odds ratio derived under this sampling mechanism is not collapsible over the selection variable, such that the results obtained for the sampled individuals cannot be generalized to the whole population. In this paper, we show that adjustment for severity of disease can reduce this bias and, under certain assumptions, makes it possible to unbiasedly estimate a causal odds ratio. We support our findings with extensive simulations and discuss them in the context of recently published cholera test-negative studies of the effectiveness of cholera vaccines.

Evaluation of post-introduction COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness: Summary of interim guidance of the World Health Organization

Phase 3 randomized-controlled trials have provided promising results of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, ranging from 50 to 95% against symptomatic disease as the primary endpoints, resulting in emergency use authorization/listing for several vaccines. However, given the short duration of follow-up during the clinical trials, strict eligibility criteria, emerging variants of concern, and the changing epidemiology of the pandemic, many questions still remain unanswered regarding vaccine performance. Post-introduction vaccine effectiveness evaluations can help us to understand the vaccine's effect on reducing infection and disease when used in real-world conditions. They can also address important questions that were either not studied or were incompletely studied in the trials and that will inform evolving vaccine policy, including assessment of the duration of effectiveness; effectiveness in key subpopulations, such as the very old or immunocompromised; against severe disease and death due to COVID-19; against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern; and with different vaccination schedules, such as number of doses and varying dosing intervals. WHO convened an expert panel to develop interim best practice guidance for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluations. We present a summary of the interim guidance, including discussion of different study designs, priority outcomes to evaluate, potential biases, existing surveillance platforms that can be used, and recommendations for reporting results.

An evaluation of a test-negative design for EV-71 vaccine from a randomized controlled trial

Background: The test-negative design has been used widely in evaluation of various vaccines' effectiveness, such as influenza, rotavirus, and so on. Recently, there have been some studies about EV-71 vaccine effectiveness by using test-negative design(TND). However, the validity of the TND application in EV-71 vaccines has not been evaluated.Methods: This study is set upon prior methods to evaluate the validity of TND for influenza vaccine by using a randomized controlled clinical trial database. Vaccine effectiveness estimated by TND (VE-TND) in modified intention-to-treat population (mITT) and per-protocol-set population(PPS) was derived from a large randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial (RCT) of inactivated monovalent EV-71 vaccine in China. Derived VE-TND estimates were compared to the original vaccine efficacy results in RCT (VE-RCT).Results: We totally enrolled 7325 participants who seeked medical care for suspected EV-71 infected diseases during the surveillance. There are no significant differences between cases(test-positive) and controls(test-negative) on sex, age, height, and weight. TND vaccine effectiveness estimates were similar to original RCT vaccine efficacy estimates, both in modified intention-to-treat population and per-protocol populations.Conclusions: This study supports that TND, as an appropriate observational study design is valid to measure EV-71 vaccine effectiveness.

Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness against Different Influenza Subtypes in the Hospitalized Population in Lithuania during the 2015-2019 Influenza Seasons

Background: Continuous monitoring of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (SIVE) is needed due to the changing nature of influenza viruses and it supports the decision on the annual update of vaccine composition. Age-specific SIVE was evaluated against different influenza subtypes in the hospitalized population in Lithuania during four influenza seasons. Methods: A test-negative case-control study design was used. SIVE and its 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated as (1 – odds ratio (OR)) × 100%. Results: Adjusted SIVE in 18–64-year-old individuals against influenza A, A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Yamagata were 78.0% (95% CI: 1.7; 95.1%), 88.6% (95% CI: −47.4; 99.1%), and 76.8% (95% CI: −109.9; 97.4%), respectively. Adjusted SIVE in individuals aged 65 years and older against influenza A, influenza B, and B/Yamagata were 22.6% (95% CI: −36.5; 56.1%), 75.3% (95% CI: 12.2; 93.1%) and 73.1% (95% CI: 3.2; 92.5%), respectively. Unadjusted SIVE against influenza A(H3N2) among 18–64-year-old patients was 44.8% (95% CI: −171.0; 88.8%) and among those aged 65 years and older was 5.0% (95% CI: −74.5; 48.3%). Conclusions: Point estimates suggest high SIVE against influenza A in 18–64-year-old participants, and against influenza B and B/Yamagata in those 65 years old and older.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in People With Asthma: A National Test-Negative Design Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection is a trigger of asthma attacks. Influenza vaccination can potentially reduce the incidence of influenza in people with asthma, but uptake remains persistently low, partially reflecting concerns about vaccine effectiveness (VE).

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative designed case-control study to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in people with asthma in Scotland over 6 seasons (2010/2011 to 2015/2016). We used individual patient-level data from 223 practices, which yielded 1 830 772 patient-years of data that were linked with virological (n = 5910 swabs) data.

RESULTS

Vaccination was associated with an overall 55.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.8-62.7) risk reduction of laboratory-confirmed influenza infections in people with asthma over 6 seasons. There were substantial variations in VE between seasons, influenza strains, and age groups. The highest VE (76.1%; 95% CI, 55.6-87.1) was found in the 2010/2011 season, when the A(H1N1) strain dominated and there was a good antigenic vaccine match. High protection was observed against the A(H1N1) (eg, 2010/2011; 70.7%; 95% CI, 32.5-87.3) and B strains (eg, 2010/2011; 83.2%; 95% CI, 44.3-94.9), but there was lower protection for the A(H3N2) strain (eg, 2014/2015; 26.4%; 95% CI, -12.0 to 51.6). The highest VE against all viral strains was observed in adults aged 18-54 years (57.0%; 95% CI, 42.3-68.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination gave meaningful protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza in people with asthma across all seasons. Strategies to boost influenza vaccine uptake have the potential to substantially reduce influenza-triggered asthma attacks.

Mitigation of biases in estimating hazard ratios under non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes-applications to influenza vaccine effectiveness

Background

Non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes in time-to-event data affects event counts as well as the risk sets, thus, biasing the estimation of hazard ratios. We investigate how imperfect observation of incident events affects the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on hazard ratios.

Methods

Imperfect time-to-event data contain two classes of events: a portion of the true events of interest; and false-positive events mistakenly recorded as events of interest. We develop an estimation method utilising a weighted partial likelihood and probabilistic deletion of false-positive events and assuming the sensitivity and the false-positive rate are known. The performance of the method is evaluated using simulated and Finnish register data.

Results

The novel method enables unbiased semiparametric estimation of hazard ratios from imperfect time-to-event data. False-positive rates that are small can be approximated to be zero without inducing bias. The method is robust to misspecification of the sensitivity as long as the ratio of the sensitivity in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated is specified correctly and the cumulative risk of the true event is small.

Conclusions

The weighted partial likelihood can be used to adjust for outcome measurement errors in the estimation of hazard ratios and effectiveness but requires specifying the sensitivity and the false-positive rate. In absence of exact information about these parameters, the method works as a tool for assessing the potential magnitude of bias given a range of likely parameter values.

Temporal Confounding in the Test-Negative Design

In the test-negative design, routine testing at health-care facilities is leveraged to estimate the effectiveness of an intervention such as a vaccine. The odds of vaccination for individuals who test positive for a target pathogen is compared with the odds of vaccination for individuals who test negative for that pathogen, adjusting for key confounders. The design is rapidly growing in popularity, but many open questions remain about its properties. In this paper, we examine temporal confounding by generalizing derivations to allow for time-varying vaccine status, including out-of-season controls, and open populations. We confirm that calendar time is an important confounder when vaccine status varies during the study. We demonstrate that, where time is not a confounder, including out-of-season controls can improve precision. We generalize these results to open populations. We use our theoretical findings to interpret 3 recent papers utilizing the test-negative design. Through careful examination of the theoretical properties of this study design, we provide key insights that can directly inform the implementation and analysis of future test-negative studies.

Bias correction methods for test-negative designs in the presence of misclassification

The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach for vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. However, previous studies suggested that it may be more vulnerable than other designs to misclassification of disease outcome caused by imperfect diagnostic tests. This could be a particular limitation in VE studies where simple tests (e.g. rapid influenza diagnostic tests) are used for logistical convenience. To address this issue, we derived a mathematical representation of the TND with imperfect tests, then developed a bias correction framework for possible misclassification. TND studies usually include multiple covariates other than vaccine history to adjust for potential confounders; our methods can also address multivariate analyses and be easily coupled with existing estimation tools. We validated the performance of these methods using simulations of common scenarios for vaccine efficacy and were able to obtain unbiased estimates in a variety of parameter settings.

Heterogeneity in influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa: early estimates of the 2019 influenza season

We compared 2019 influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in four southern hemisphere countries: Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza seasons differed in timing, duration, intensity and predominant circulating viruses. VE estimates were also heterogeneous, with all-ages point estimates ranging from 7-70% (I2: 33%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 4-57% (I2: 49%) for A(H3N2) and 29-66% (I2: 0%) for B. Caution should be applied when attempting to use southern hemisphere data to predict the northern hemisphere influenza season.

Intraseason Waning of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

BACKGROUND

In the United States, it is recommended that healthcare providers offer influenza vaccination by October, if possible. However, if the vaccine's effectiveness soon begins to wane, the optimal time for vaccination may be somewhat later. We examined whether the effectiveness of influenza vaccine wanes during the influenza season with increasing time since vaccination.

METHODS

We identified persons who were vaccinated with inactivated influenza vaccine from 1 September 2010 to 31 March 2017 and who were subsequently tested for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) by a polymerase chain reaction test. Test-confirmed influenza was the primary outcome and days-since-vaccination was the predictor of interest in conditional logistic regression. Models were adjusted for age and conditioned on calendar day and geographic area. RSV was used as a negative-control outcome.

RESULTS

Compared with persons vaccinated 14 to 41 days prior to being tested, persons vaccinated 42 to 69 days prior to being tested had 1.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.55) times the odds of testing positive for any influenza. The odds ratio (OR) increased linearly by approximately 16% for each additional 28 days since vaccination. The OR was 2.06 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.51) for persons vaccinated 154 or more days prior to being tested. No evidence of waning was found for RSV.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine wanes during the course of a single season. These results may lead to reconsideration of the optimal timing of seasonal influenza vaccination.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza in hospitalised adults aged 60 years or older, Valencia Region, Spain, 2017/18 influenza season

Introduction

Influenza immunisation is recommended for elderly people each season. The influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies annually due to influenza viruses evolving and the vaccine composition.

Aim

To estimate, in inpatients ≥ 60 years old, the 2017/18 trivalent IVE, overall, by vaccine type and by strain. The impact of vaccination in any of the two previous seasons (2016/17 and 2015/16) on current (2017/18) IVE was also explored.

Methods

This was a multicentre prospective observational study within the Valencia Hospital Surveillance Network for the Study of Influenza and Respiratory Viruses Disease (VAHNSI, Spain). The test-negative design was applied taking laboratory-confirmed influenza as outcome and vaccination status as main exposure. Information about potential confounders was obtained from clinical registries and/or by interviewing patients; vaccine information was only ascertained by registries.

Results

Overall, 2017/18 IVE was 9.9% (95% CI: −15.5 to 29.6%), and specifically, 48.3% (95% CI: 13.5% to 69.1%), −29.9% (95% CI: −79.1% to 5.8%) and 25.7% (95% CI: −8.8% to 49.3%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B/Yamagata lineage, respectively. For the adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted vaccines, overall IVE was 10.0% (95% CI: −24.4% to 34.9%) and 7.8% (95% CI: −23.1% to 31.0%) respectively. Prior vaccination significantly protected against influenza B/Yamagata lineage (IVE: 50.2%; 95% CI: 2.3% to 74.6%) in patients not vaccinated in the current season. For those repeatedly vaccinated against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, IVE was 46.4% (95% CI: 6.8% to 69.2%).

Conclusion

Our data revealed low vaccine effectiveness against influenza in hospitalised patients ≥60 years old in 2017/18. Prior vaccination protected against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Yamagata-lineage.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Influenza-associated Hospitalizations During Pregnancy: A Multi-country Retrospective Test Negative Design Study, 2010-2016

BACKGROUND

To date, no study has examined influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations during pregnancy.

METHODS

The Pregnancy Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (PREVENT) consisted of public health or healthcare systems with integrated laboratory, medical, and vaccination records in Australia, Canada (Alberta and Ontario), Israel, and the United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Sites identified pregnant women aged 18 through 50 years whose pregnancies overlapped with local influenza seasons from 2010 through 2016. Administrative data were used to identify hospitalizations with acute respiratory or febrile illness (ARFI) and clinician-ordered real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing for influenza viruses. Overall IVE was estimated using the test-negative design and adjusting for site, season, season timing, and high-risk medical conditions.

RESULTS

Among 19450 hospitalizations with an ARFI discharge diagnosis (across 25 site-specific study seasons), only 1030 (6%) of the pregnant women were tested for influenza viruses by rRT-PCR. Approximately half of these women had pneumonia or influenza discharge diagnoses (54%). Influenza A or B virus infections were detected in 598/1030 (58%) of the ARFI hospitalizations with influenza testing. Across sites and seasons, 13% of rRT-PCR-confirmed influenza-positive pregnant women were vaccinated compared with 22% of influenza-negative pregnant women; the adjusted overall IVE was 40% (95% confidence interval = 12%-59%) against influenza-associated hospitalization during pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Between 2010 and 2016, influenza vaccines offered moderate protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations during pregnancy, which may further inform the benefits of maternal influenza vaccination programs.

Early season estimate of influenza vaccination effectiveness against influenza hospitalisation in children, Hong Kong, winter influenza season 2018/19

The winter 2018/19 influenza season in Hong Kong has been predominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 as at January 2019. We enrolled 2,016 children in three public hospitals in Hong Kong between 2 September 2018 and 11 January 2019. Using the test-negative approach, we estimated high early season effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine against influenza A or B of 90% (95% confidence interval (CI): 80–95%) and 92% (95% CI: 82–96%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation due to laboratory-confirmed influenza in children in England in the 2015-2016 influenza season - a test-negative case-control study

England has recently started a new paediatric influenza vaccine programme using a live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). There is uncertainty over how well the vaccine protects against more severe end-points. A test-negative case–control study was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) in vaccine-eligible children aged 2–16 years of age in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalisation in England in the 2015–2016 season using a national sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Logistic regression was used to estimate the VE with adjustment for sex, risk-group, age group, region, ethnicity, deprivation and month of sample collection. A total of 977 individuals were included in the study (348 cases and 629 controls). The overall adjusted VE for all study ages and vaccine types was 33.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3–54.6) after adjusting for age group, sex, index of multiple deprivation, ethnicity, region, sample month and risk group. Risk group was shown to be an important confounder. The adjusted VE for all influenza types for the live-attenuated vaccine was 41.9% (95% CI 7.3–63.6) and 28.8% (95% CI −31.1 to 61.3) for the inactivated vaccine. The study provides evidence of the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation due to laboratory-confirmed influenza in children in 2015–2016 and continues to support the rollout of the LAIV childhood programme.