Declining tree growth resilience mediates subsequent forest mortality in the US Mountain West

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand-level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree-ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die-off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand-level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross- and within-species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large-scale projections of forest die-off under climate change.

Outbreaks of Douglas-Fir Beetle Follow Western Spruce Budworm Defoliation in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA

Changes in climate are altering disturbance regimes in forests of western North America, leading to increases in the potential for disturbance events to overlap in time and space. Though interactions between abiotic and biotic disturbance (e.g., the effect of bark beetle outbreak on subsequent wildfire) have been widely studied, interactions between multiple biotic disturbances are poorly understood. Defoliating insects, such as the western spruce budworm (WSB; Choristoneura freemanni), have been widely suggested to predispose trees to secondary colonization by bark beetles, such as the Douglas-fir beetle (DFB; Dendroctonus pseudotsugae). However, there is little quantitative research that supports this observation. Here, we asked: Does previous WSB damage increase the likelihood of subsequent DFB outbreak in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA? To quantify areas affected by WSB and then DFB, we analyzed Aerial Detection Survey data from 1999–2019. We found that a DFB presence followed WSB defoliation more often than expected under a null model (i.e., random distribution). With climate change expected to intensify some biotic disturbances, an understanding of the interactions between insect outbreaks is important for forest management planning, as well as for improving our understanding of forest change.

Does the legacy of historical thinning treatments foster resilience to bark beetle outbreaks in subalpine forests?

Promoting ecological resilience to increasing disturbance activity is a key management priority under warming climate. Across the Northern Hemisphere, tree mortality from widespread bark beetle outbreaks raises concerns for how forest management can foster resilience to future outbreaks. Density reduction (i.e., thinning) treatments can increase vigor of remaining trees, but the longevity of treatment efficacy for reducing susceptibility to future disturbance remains a key knowledge gap. Using one of the longest-running replicated experiments in old-growth subalpine forests, we measured stand structure following a recent (early 2000s) severe mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak to examine the legacy of historical (1940s) thinning treatments on two components of resilience. We asked: 'How did historical thinning intensity affect (1) tree-scale survival probability and stand-scale survival proportion (collectively "resistance" to outbreak) for susceptible trees (lodgepole pine [Pinus contorta] ≥ 12 cm diameter) and (2) post-outbreak stand successional trajectories?' Overall outbreak severity was high (MPB killed 59% of susceptible individuals and 78% of susceptible basal area), and historical thinning had little effect on tree-scale and stand-scale resistance. Tree-scale survival probability decreased sharply with increasing tree diameter and did not differ from the control (uncut stands) in the historical thinning treatments. Stand-scale proportion of surviving susceptible trees and basal area did not differ from the control in historically thinned stands, except for treatments that removed nearly all susceptible trees, in which survival proportion approximately doubled. Despite limited effects on resistance to MPB outbreak, the legacy of historical treatments shifted dominance from large-diameter to small-diameter lodgepole pine by the time of outbreak, resulting in historically thinned stands with ~2× greater post-outbreak live basal area than control stands. MPB-driven mortality of large-diameter lodgepole pine in control stands and density-dependent mortality of small-diameter trees in historically thinned stands led to convergence in post-outbreak live tree stand structure. One exception was the heaviest historical thinning treatments (59-77% basal area removed), for which sapling dominance of shade-tolerant, unsusceptible conifers was lower than control stands. After six decades, thinning treatments have had minimal effect on resistance to bark beetle outbreaks, but leave persistent legacies in shaping post-outbreak successional trajectories.

Effects of Bark Beetle Outbreaks on Forest Landscape Pattern in the Southern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A

Since the late 1990s, extensive outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have affected coniferous forests throughout Europe and North America, driving changes in carbon storage, wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, and water resource provisioning. Remote sensing is a crucial tool for quantifying the effects of these disturbances across broad landscapes. In particular, Landsat time series (LTS) are increasingly used to characterize outbreak dynamics, including the presence and severity of bark beetle-caused tree mortality, though broad-scale LTS-based maps are rarely informed by detailed field validation. Here we used spatial and temporal information from LTS products, in combination with extensive field data and Random Forest (RF) models, to develop 30-m maps of the presence (i.e., any occurrence) and severity (i.e., cumulative percent basal area mortality) of beetle-caused tree mortality 1997–2019 in subalpine forests throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Using resultant maps, we also quantified spatial patterns of cumulative tree mortality throughout the region, an important yet poorly understood concept in beetle-affected forests. RF models using LTS products to predict presence and severity performed well, with 80.3% correctly classified (Kappa = 0.61) and R2 = 0.68 (RMSE = 17.3), respectively. We found that ≥10,256 km2 of subalpine forest area (39.5% of the study area) was affected by bark beetles and 19.3% of the study area experienced ≥70% tree mortality over the twenty-three year period. Variograms indicated that severity was autocorrelated at scales < 250 km. Interestingly, cumulative patch-size distributions showed that areas with a near-total loss of the overstory canopy (i.e., ≥90% mortality) were relatively small (<0.24 km2) and isolated throughout the study area. Our findings help to inform an understanding of the variable effects of bark beetle outbreaks across complex forested regions and provide insight into patterns of disturbance legacies, landscape connectivity, and susceptibility to future disturbance.

Why is Tree Drought Mortality so Hard to Predict?

Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating 'ecological surprise'. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors at two levels stymie predictions of drought-driven mortality: (i) organismal-level physiological and site factors that obscure understanding of drought exposure and vulnerability and (ii) community-level ecological interactions, particularly with biotic agents whose effects on tree mortality may reverse expectations based on stress physiology. We conclude with a path forward that emphasizes the need for an integrative approach to stress physiology and biotic agent dynamics when assessing forest risk to drought-driven morality in a changing climate.

Demographic trends in community functional tolerance reflect tree responses to climate and altered fire regimes

Forests of the western United States are undergoing substantial stress from fire exclusion and increasing effects of climate change, altering ecosystem functions and processes. Changes in broad-scale drivers of forest community composition become apparent in their effect on survivorship and regeneration, driving demographic shifts. Here we take a community functional approach to forest demography, by investigating mean drought or shade functional tolerance in community assemblages. We created the Community Mean Tolerance Index (CMTI), a response metric utilizing drought/shade tolerance trade-offs to identify communities undergoing demographic change from a functional trait perspective. We applied the CMTI to Forest Inventory and Analysis data to investigate demographic trends in drought and shade tolerance across the southern Rocky Mountains. To find the major drivers of change in community tolerance within and across forest types, we compared index trends to climate and fire-exclusion-driven disturbance, and identified areas where demographic change was most pronounced. We predicted that greater shifts in drought tolerance would occur at lower forest type ecotones where climate stress is limiting and that shifts in shade tolerance would correspond to excursions from the historic fire regime leading to greater changes in forest types adapted to frequent, low-intensity fire. The CMTI was applied spatially to identify sites likely to transition to oak shrubfield, where disturbance history combined with a species-driven demographic shift toward drought tolerance. Within forest types, lower elevations are trending toward increased drought tolerance, while higher elevations are trending toward increased shade tolerance. Across forest types, CMTI difference peaked in mid-elevation ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests, where fire exclusion and autecology drive demographic changes. Peak CMTI difference was associated with fire exclusion in forest types adapted to frequent fire. At higher elevations, site-level stand dynamics appear to be influencing demographic tolerance trends more than broad climate drivers. Through a community demographic approach to functional traits, the CMTI highlights areas and forest types where ecosystem function is in the process of changing, before persistent vegetation type change occurs. Applied to regional plot networks, the CMTI provides an early warning of shifts in community functional processes as climate change pressures continue.

Snagfall the first decade after severe bark beetle infestation of high-elevation forests in Colorado, USA

The persistence and fall rate of snags (standing dead trees) generated during bark beetle outbreaks have consequences for the behavior, effects, and suppression of potential wildfires, hazard tree and timber salvage operations, wildlife habitat, and numerous ecosystem processes. However, post-beetle snagfall dynamics are poorly understood in most forest types. We tagged standing live and dead lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), including beetle-killed pine snags following the peak of a recent mountain pine bark beetle outbreak in watersheds at the Fraser Experimental Forest in northcentral Colorado and sampled snagfall 10 and 12 years later. Bark beetle attacks began in 2003, peaked by 2006, and killed 78% of overstory lodgepole pine in 133 plots distributed across a range of stand and site conditions. Of those snags, only 17% fell between 2007 and 2018. Most snags broke at ground level, due to butt rot, and were oriented downhill. In contrast, snags that tipped up or snapped off above the ground were oriented with the prevailing winds. Equal numbers of snags fell singly and in multiple-tree groups, and equal numbers remained elevated rather than in contact with the ground. Lodgepole pine snagfall was 1.6-times higher on steep slopes (>40%) where dead pine density was higher, compared to flatter sites. Based on our findings and previous research, we estimate that one-half the beetle-killed lodgepole pine in high-elevation forests such as those at Fraser may fall within 15-20 yr of beetle infestation, but that some pine snags are likely to persist for decades longer. Post-outbreak snagfall dynamics create a multiple-decade legacy of bark beetle outbreaks that will persist longer in high-elevation compared to lower-elevation forests.

Insect Declines in the Anthropocene

Insect declines are being reported worldwide for flying, ground, and aquatic lineages. Most reports come from western and northern Europe, where the insect fauna is well-studied and there are considerable demographic data for many taxonomically disparate lineages. Additional cases of faunal losses have been noted from Asia, North America, the Arctic, the Neotropics, and elsewhere. While this review addresses both species loss and population declines, its emphasis is on the latter. Declines of abundant species can be especially worrisome, given that they anchor trophic interactions and shoulder many of the essential ecosystem services of their respective communities. A review of the factors believed to be responsible for observed collapses and those perceived to be especially threatening to insects form the core of this treatment. In addition to widely recognized threats to insect biodiversity, e.g., habitat destruction, agricultural intensification (including pesticide use), climate change, and invasive species, this assessment highlights a few less commonly considered factors such as atmospheric nitrification from the burning of fossil fuels and the effects of droughts and changing precipitation patterns. Because the geographic extent and magnitude of insect declines are largely unknown, there is an urgent need for monitoring efforts, especially across ecological gradients, which will help to identify important causal factors in declines. This review also considers the status of vertebrate insectivores, reporting bias, challenges inherent in collecting and interpreting insect demographic data, and cases of increasing insect abundance.

Use of MODIS NDVI Products to Map Tree Mortality Levels in Forests Affected by Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks

Extensive bark beetle outbreaks have recently occurred in western North American forests, resulting in overstory tree mortality across millions of hectares. Annual aerial surveys are currently used to operationally monitor bark beetle induced tree mortality, though this method is subjective and can exclude some forest areas. Daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data offer a potential alternative means to develop regional tree mortality maps. Accurate methods using such data could aid natural resource managers in surveys of forests with frequent overstory mortality, helping to prioritize forest treatment and restoration activities. This paper discusses a study to test the potential of using MODIS data to detect tree mortality. We developed and tested an approach to use 250-m resolution MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data products collected during a mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak and related tree mortality event in the northern Rocky Mountains of Colorado, USA. The 94 km2 study area is predominantly lodgepole pine forest with most of the MPB-caused mortality occurring between 2003 and 2008. We used a 2.4-m forest conditions map from 2008 aerial multispectral imagery to calculate percentage of mortality within 240-m pixels for use as reference data. Using either daily or 16-day products, MODIS NDVI change products were calculated for 2008 versus either 2000 or 2003 baselines. MODIS change products were used as predictors in linear regression analysis to assess correlation between MODIS data and the aerial percent forest mortality map. Depending on the MODIS product, linear regression analyses yielded r2 values ranging from 0.362 to 0.544 without outliers removed and from 0.406 to 0.570 with extreme outliers removed. Daily MODIS NDVI products from 2003 and 2008 were used with exponential regression to improve the r2 to 0.593. The project showed some MODIS NDVI data potential for mapping percent tree mortality in forests subjected to regional bark beetle outbreaks and severe drought.

Important Insect and Disease Threats to United States Tree Species and Geographic Patterns of Their Potential Impacts

Diseases and insects, particularly those that are non-native and invasive, arguably pose the most destructive threat to North American forests. Currently, both exotic and native insects and diseases are producing extensive ecological damage and economic impacts. As part of an effort to identify United States tree species and forests most vulnerable to these epidemics, we compiled a list of the most serious insect and disease threats for 419 native tree species and assigned a severity rating for each of the 1378 combinations between mature tree hosts and 339 distinct insect and disease agents. We then joined this list with data from a spatially unbiased and nationally consistent forest inventory to assess the potential ecological impacts of insect and disease infestations. Specifically, potential host species mortality for each host/agent combination was used to weight species importance values on approximately 132,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots across the conterminous 48 United States. When summed on each plot, these weighted importance values represent an estimate of the proportion of the plot’s existing importance value at risk of being lost. These plot estimates were then used to identify statistically significant geographic hotspots and coldspots and of potential forest impacts associated with insects and diseases in total, and for different agent types. In general, the potential impacts of insects and diseases were greater in the West, where there are both fewer agents and less diverse forests. The impact of non-native invasive agents, however, was potentially greater in the East. Indeed, the impacts of current exotic pests could be greatly magnified across much of the Eastern United States if these agents are able to reach the entirety of their hosts’ ranges. Both the list of agent/host severities and the spatially explicit results can inform species-level vulnerability assessments and broad-scale forest sustainability reporting efforts, and should provide valuable information for decision-makers who need to determine which tree species and locations to target for monitoring efforts and pro-active management activities.

Estimating Flight Distance of Platypus koryoensis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) by Mark-Release-Recapture and Its Validation by Field Observation

Korean oak wilt (KOW) is vectored by the beetle Platypus koryoensis (Murayama) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a native species of Korea, whose dispersal distance is a key factor determining the spread of damage by KOW. To estimate dispersal distance at stand level, we conducted a mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiment and validated its results using an independent data. Sticky traps were attached to the trunks of oak trees up to 48.8 m from the release point. Beetles were marked with different three fluorescent powders by date and released, and the number of recaptured beetles was counted 90 min after release. To validate the flight distance, annual mean dispersal distance of P. koryoensis population was analyzed using GPS coordinates of oak trees with the symptom of KOW recorded in the field from 2012 to 2014 in independent oak stands that have been damaged by KOW since 2012. The beetles were recaptured only on the day they were released, suggesting that the beetles only make one flight. The percentage of recaptured beetles was 6.0 ± 1.6%. The mean dispersal distance was 18.0 ± 1.3 m, and more than 85% of recaptured beetles were caught within 25 m. Annual movement distances in infested stands were 24.1 and 19.9 m from 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014, respectively, similar to the dispersal distance obtained from our MRR experiment. Our results showed that the dispersal distance of P. koryoensis estimated by MRR is a useful process for predicting the spread of areas damaged by KOW.

Soil Nitrogen Leaching in Logged Beetle-Killed Forests and Implications for Riparian Fuel Reduction

Recent extensive forest mortality and subsequent salvage logging may threaten the water supply from headwater catchments in western North America. Land managers confronting current insect outbreaks and projected increases in forest disturbance require information about the potential water quality consequences of these changes. This study is a hillslope-scale evaluation of soil N and C leaching in lodgepole pine forests that have experienced 80% overstory tree mortality. I measured extractable inorganic and ion resin exchangeable-N forms, in situ net mineralization and nitrification, and leaching in upland and riparian forests with the following treatment combinations: (i) uncut upland with uncut riparian, (ii) harvested upland with uncut riparian buffer, and (iii) harvested upland with harvested riparian. This design permitted comparison of N cycling and leaching in 30-m-wide riparian buffers and a riparian fuel break designed to remove canopy fuels and reduce wildfire concerns in areas with extensive bark beetle infestation. Harvesting increased NO-N, total dissolved N, and dissolved organic C leachate concentrations in upland landscapes but had little effect on net N transformations. Leachate N and C concentrations were 1.5 times higher in riparian buffers downslope of harvested uplands than those in riparian zones downslope of uncut uplands. Riparian forest harvest increased N leaching relative to uncut buffers, although postharvest concentrations remained well below regional water quality standards. Thus, while this study provides evidence that N leaching from dead buffers is low, it also suggests that riparian fuel reduction may complement wildfire mitigation objectives without compromising watershed protection.

Biological Aspects of Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Stands of Different Densities in Colorado, USA

Research Highlights: The biology of mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, in Colorado’s lodgepole pine forests exhibits similarities and differences to other parts of its range. Brood emergence was not influenced by stand density nor related to tree diameter. The probability of individual tree attack is influenced by stocking and tree size. Findings have implications for understanding MPB as a disturbance agent and for developing management strategies. Background and Objectives: MPB causes extensive tree mortality of lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon, across the western US and Canada and is probably the most studied bark beetle in North America. However, most of the current knowledge on the biology and ecology of MPB in lodgepole pine comes from the Intermountain Region of the US and western Canada. Little information is available from Colorado. This is the first study addressing effects of stand stocking levels on the biology of MPB and quantifying phloem consumption. In addition, although data are available on the conditions that foster stand infestation, this is the first study estimating the probability of individual tree attack among stands of known different stocking. Materials and Methods: Studies were conducted in managed lodgepole pine stands in Colorado. Unbaited traps were used to monitor MPB flight across stands of different densities. Cages were used to monitor emergence and bark samples to determine attack densities, and phloem consumption in trees growing under different stocking. Beetle collections were used to determine emergence across the growing season. Tree mortality data from plots of different densities were used to examine the probability of individual tree infestation. Results: More beetles were caught flying through higher density stands. More attacks were observed in lower stocking stands but there were no differences in the number of insects emerging nor phloem consumption. There was no relationship between tree size and beetle emergence. Peak flight occurred in early to mid-August and only one peak of beetle emergence occurred. The probability of tree attack was influenced by stand stocking and tree diameter. Conclusions: In general, aspects of the biology of MPB in Colorado exhibit similarities and differences with other regions. The data suggest the need to more closely examine how MPB functions in stands of different stocking and how the distribution of tree sizes influence the probability of infestation and extent of mortality in stands. Biological characteristics of MPB in Colorado need further examination, particularly as climate change continues to manifest. Baseline information will be critical to refine management approaches, and extend the understanding of how MPB contributes to shape forest composition and structure in Colorado.

Landscape Topoedaphic Features Create Refugia from Drought and Insect Disturbance in a Lodgepole and Whitebark Pine Forest

Droughts and insect outbreaks are primary disturbance processes linking climate change to tree mortality in western North America. Refugia from these disturbances—locations where impacts are less severe relative to the surrounding landscape—may be priorities for conservation, restoration, and monitoring. In this study, hypotheses concerning physical and biological processes supporting refugia were investigated by modelling the landscape controls on disturbance refugia that were identified using remotely sensed vegetation indicators. Refugia were identified at 30-m resolution using anomalies of Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Moisture Index in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests in southern Oregon, USA, in 2001 (a single-year drought with no insect outbreak) and 2009 (during a multi-year drought and severe outbreak of mountain pine beetle). Landscape controls on refugia (topographic, soil, and forest characteristics) were modeled using boosted regression trees. Landscape characteristics better explained and predicted refugia locations in 2009, when forest impacts were greater, than in 2001. Refugia in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests were generally associated with topographically shaded slopes, convergent environments such as valleys, areas of relatively low soil bulk density, and in thinner forest stands. In whitebark pine forest, refugia were associated with riparian areas along headwater streams. Spatial patterns in evapotranspiration, snowmelt dynamics, soil water storage, and drought-tolerance and insect-resistance abilities may help create refugia from drought and mountain pine beetle. Identification of the landscape characteristics supporting refugia can help forest managers target conservation resources in an era of climate-change exacerbation of droughts and insect outbreaks.

Subwatershed-Level Lodgepole Pine Attributes Associated with a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins; MPB) is an aggressive bark beetle that attacks numerous Pinus spp. and causes extensive mortality in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon; LPP) forests in the western United States and Canada. We used pre-outbreak LPP attributes, cumulative MPB attack severity, and areal extent of mortality data to identify subwatershed-scale forest attributes associated with severe MPB-caused tree mortality that occurred across the Northern Rockies, USA from 1999–2014. We upscaled stand-level data to the subwatershed scale to allow identification of large LPP areas vulnerable to MPB. The highest mortality occurred in subwatersheds where LPP mean basal area was greater than 11.5 m2 ha−1 and LPP quadratic mean diameter was greater than or equal to 18 cm. A coarse assessment of federally-owned LPP-dominated forestland in the analysis area indicated about 42% could potentially be silviculturally treated. Silvicultural management may be a suitable option for many LPP forests, and our hazard model can be used to identify subwatersheds with LPP attributes associated with high susceptibility to MPB across landscape spatial scales. Identifying highly susceptible subwatersheds can help prioritize general areas for potential treatments, especially where spatially extensive areas of contiguous, highly susceptible LPP occur.

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species' range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.

Examining the Potential of Forest Residue-Based Amendments for Post-Wildfire Rehabilitation in Colorado, USA

Wildfire is a natural disturbance, though elemental losses and changes that occur during combustion and post-fire erosion can have long-term impacts on soil properties, ecosystem productivity, and watershed condition. Here we evaluate the potential of forest residue-based materials to rehabilitate burned soils. We compare soil nutrient and water availability, and plant recovery after application of 37 t ha^-1 of wood mulch, 20 t ha^-1 of biochar, and the combination of the two amendments with untreated, burned soils. We also conducted a greenhouse trial to examine how biochar influenced soil nutrient and water content under two wetting regimes. The effects of wood mulch on plant-available soil N and water content were significant and seasonally consistent during the three-year field study. Biochar applied alone had few effects under field conditions, but significantly increased soil pH, Ca, P, and water in the greenhouse. The mulched biochar treatment had the greatest effects on soil N and water availability and increased cover of the most abundant native plant. We found that rehabilitation treatments consisting of forest residue-based products have potential to enhance soil N and water dynamics and plant recovery following severe wildfire and may be justified where erosion risk or water supply protection are crucial.

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle.

Relative importance of climate and mountain pine beetle outbreaks on the occurrence of large wildfires in the western USA

Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have killed trees across millions of hectares of forests and woodlands in western North America. These outbreaks have led to spirited scientific, public, and policy debates about consequential increases in fire risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and communities are at particular risk from wildfires. At the same time, large wildfires have become more frequent across this region. Widespread expectations that outbreaks increase extent, severity, and/or frequency of wildfires are based partly on visible and dramatic changes in foliar moisture content and other fuel properties following outbreaks, as well as associated modeling projections. A competing explanation is that increasing wildfires are driven primarily by climatic extremes, which are becoming more common with climate change. However, the relative importance of bark beetle outbreaks vs. climate on fire occurrence has not been empirically examined across very large areas and remains poorly understood. The most extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects across the western United States have been of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae), which have killed trees over >650,000 km² , mostly in forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta). We show that outbreaks of MPB in lodgepole pine forests of the western United States have been less important than climatic variability for the occurrence of large fires over the past 29 years. In lodgepole pine forests in general, as well as those in the WUI, occurrence of large fires was determined primarily by current and antecedent high temperatures and low precipitation but was unaffected by preceding outbreaks. Trends of increasing co-occurrence of wildfires and outbreaks are due to a common climatic driver rather than interactions between these disturbances. Reducing wildfire risk hinges on addressing the underlying climatic drivers rather than treating beetle-affected forests.

Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks

Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes.

Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics and Reproductive Success in Post-Fire Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pine Forests in Northeastern Utah

Fire injury can increase tree susceptibility to some bark beetles (Curculionidae, Scolytinae), but whether wildfires can trigger outbreaks of species such as mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is not well understood. We monitored 1173 lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Doug.) and 599 ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa Doug. ex Law) pines for three years post-wildfire in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah in an area with locally endemic mountain pine beetle. We examined how the degree and type of fire injury influenced beetle attacks, brood production, and subsequent tree mortality, and related these to beetle population changes over time. Mountain pine beetle population levels were high the first two post-fire years in lodgepole pine, and then declined. In ponderosa pine, populations declined each year after initial post-fire sampling. Compared to trees with strip or failed attacks, mass attacks occurred on trees with greater fire injury, in both species. Overall, a higher degree of damage to crowns and boles was associated with higher attack rates in ponderosa pines, but additional injury was more likely to decrease attack rates in lodgepole pines. In lodgepole pine, attacks were initially concentrated on fire-injured trees, but during subsequent years beetles attacked substantial numbers of uninjured trees. In ponderosa pine, attacks were primarily on injured trees each year, although these stands were more heavily burned and had few uninjured trees. In total, 46% of all lodgepole and 56% of ponderosa pines underwent some degree of attack. Adult brood emergence within caged bole sections decreased with increasing bole char in lodgepole pine but increased in ponderosa pine, however these relationships did not scale to whole trees. Mountain pine beetle populations in both tree species four years post-fire were substantially lower than the year after fire, and wildfire did not result in population outbreaks.

Fortifying the forest: thinning and burning increase resistance to a bark beetle outbreak and promote forest resilience

Fire frequency in low-elevation coniferous forests in western North America has greatly declined since the late 1800s. In many areas, this has increased tree density and the proportion of shade-tolerant species, reduced resource availability, and increased forest susceptibility to forest insect pests and high-severity wildfire. In response, treatments are often implemented with the goal of increasing ecosystem resilience by increasing resistance to disturbance. We capitalized on an existing replicated study of fire and stand density treatments in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forest in western Montana, USA, that experienced a naturally occurring mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak 5 yr after implementation of fuels treatments. We explored whether treatment effects on tree-level defense and stand structure affected resistance to MPB. Mortality from MPB was highest in the denser, untreated control and burn-only treatments, with approximately 50% and 39%, respectively, of ponderosa pine killed during the outbreak, compared to almost no mortality in the thin-only and thin-burn treatments. Thinning treatments, with or without fire, dramatically increased tree growth and resin ducts relative to control and burn-only treatments. Prescribed burning did not increase resin ducts but did cause changes in resin chemistry that may have affected MPB communication and lowered attack success. While ponderosa pine remained dominant in the thin and thin-burn treatments after the outbreak, the high pine mortality in the control and burn-only treatment caused a shift in species dominance to Douglas-fir. The high Douglas-fir component in the control and burn-only treatments due to 20th century fire exclusion, coupled with high pine mortality from MPB, has likely reduced resilience of this forest beyond the ability to return to a ponderosa pine-dominated system in the absence of further fire or mechanical treatment. Our results show treatments designed to increase resistance to high-severity fire in ponderosa pine-dominated forests in the Northern Rockies can also increase resistance to MPB, even during an outbreak. This study suggests that fuel and restoration treatments in fire-dependent ponderosa pine forests that reduce tree density increase ecosystem resilience in the short term, while the reintroduction of fire is important for long-term resilience.

A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks

Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees are highly nonlinear, due to complex aggregation behaviors exhibited by beetles attacking trees. Models have a role to play in helping unravel the effects of variable tree resistance and beetle aggregation on bark beetle outbreaks. In this article we develop a new mathematical model for bark beetle outbreaks using an analogy with epidemiological models. Because the model operates on several distinct time scales, singular perturbation methods are used to simplify the model. The result is a dynamical system that tracks populations of uninfested and infested trees. A limiting case of the model is a discontinuous function of state variables, leading to solutions in the Filippov sense. The model assumes an extensive seed-bank so that tree recruitment is possible even if trees go extinct. Two scenarios are considered for immigration of new beetles. The first is a single tree stand with beetles immigrating from outside while the second considers two forest stands with beetle dispersal between them. For the seed-bank driven recruitment rate, when beetle immigration is low, the forest stand recovers to a beetle-free state. At high beetle immigration rates beetle populations approach an endemic equilibrium state. At intermediate immigration rates, the model predicts bistability as the forest can be in either of the two equilibrium states: a healthy forest, or a forest with an endemic beetle population. The model bistability leads to hysteresis. Interactions between two stands show how a less resistant stand of trees may provide an initial toe-hold for the invasion, which later leads to a regional beetle outbreak in the resistant stand.

Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought

Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2 O and CH4 ) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil. Extreme droughts often lead to more common and more intense forest fires, causing dramatic changes in the nutrient storage and loss from forest ecosystems. Changes in the future manifestation of drought will affect carbon uptake and storage in forests, leading to feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We must improve the recognition of drought in nature, our ability to manage our forests in the face of drought, and the parameterization of drought in earth system models for improved predictions of carbon uptake and storage in the world's forests.

Neuroethology of Olfactory-Guided Behavior and Its Potential Application in the Control of Harmful Insects

Harmful insects include pests of crops and storage goods, and vectors of human and animal diseases. Throughout their history, humans have been fighting them using diverse methods. The fairly recent development of synthetic chemical insecticides promised efficient crop and health protection at a relatively low cost. However, the negative effects of those insecticides on human health and the environment, as well as the development of insect resistance, have been fueling the search for alternative control tools. New and promising alternative methods to fight harmful insects include the manipulation of their behavior using synthetic versions of "semiochemicals", which are natural volatile and non-volatile substances involved in the intra- and/or inter-specific communication between organisms. Synthetic semiochemicals can be used as trap baits to monitor the presence of insects, so that insecticide spraying can be planned rationally (i.e., only when and where insects are actually present). Other methods that use semiochemicals include insect annihilation by mass trapping, attract-and- kill techniques, behavioral disruption, and the use of repellents. In the last decades many investigations focused on the neural bases of insect's responses to semiochemicals. Those studies help understand how the olfactory system detects and processes information about odors, which could lead to the design of efficient control tools, including odor baits, repellents or ways to confound insects. Here we review our current knowledge about the neural mechanisms controlling olfactory responses to semiochemicals in harmful insects. We also discuss how this neuroethology approach can be used to design or improve pest/vector management strategies.

Mountain Pine Beetle Host Selection Between Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pines in the Southern Rocky Mountains

Recent evidence of range expansion and host transition by mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins; MPB) has suggested that MPB may not primarily breed in their natal host, but will switch hosts to an alternate tree species. As MPB populations expanded in lodgepole pine forests in the southern Rocky Mountains, we investigated the potential for movement into adjacent ponderosa pine forests. We conducted field and laboratory experiments to evaluate four aspects of MPB population dynamics and host selection behavior in the two hosts: emergence timing, sex ratios, host choice, and reproductive success. We found that peak MPB emergence from both hosts occurred simultaneously between late July and early August, and the sex ratio of emerging beetles did not differ between hosts. In two direct tests of MPB host selection, we identified a strong preference by MPB for ponderosa versus lodgepole pine. At field sites, we captured naturally emerging beetles from both natal hosts in choice arenas containing logs of both species. In the laboratory, we offered sections of bark and phloem from both species to individual insects in bioassays. In both tests, insects infested ponderosa over lodgepole pine at a ratio of almost 2:1, regardless of natal host species. Reproductive success (offspring/female) was similar in colonized logs of both hosts. Overall, our findings suggest that MPB may exhibit equally high rates of infestation and fecundity in an alternate host under favorable conditions.

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

What determines tree mortality in dry environments? A multi-perspective approach

Forest ecosystems function under increasing pressure due to global climate changes, while factors determining when and where mortality events will take place within the wider landscape are poorly understood. Observational studies are essential for documenting forest decline events, understanding their determinants, and developing sustainable management plans. A central obstacle towards achieving this goal is that mortality is often patchy across a range of spatial scales, and characterized by long-term temporal dynamics. Research must therefore integrate different methods, from several scientific disciplines, to capture as many relevant informative patterns as possible. We performed a landscape-scale assessment of mortality and its determinants in two representative Pinus halepensis planted forests from a dry environment (~300 mm), recently experiencing an unprecedented sequence of two severe drought periods. Three data sources were integrated to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in forest performance: (1) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series, from 18 Landsat satellite images; (2) individual dead trees point-pattern, based on a high-resolution aerial photograph; and (3) Basal Area Increment (BAI) time-series, from dendrochronological sampling in three sites. Mortality risk was higher in older-aged sparse stands, on southern aspects, and on deeper soils. However, mortality was patchy across all spatial scales, and the locations of patches within "high-risk" areas could not be fully explained by the examined environmental factors. Moreover, the analysis of past forest performance based on NDVI and tree rings has indicated that the areas affected by each of the two recent droughts do not coincide. The association of mortality with lower tree densities did not support the notion that thinning semiarid forests will increase survival probability of the remaining trees when facing extreme drought. Unique information was obtained when merging dendrochronological and remotely sensed performance indicators, in contrast to potential bias when using a single approach. For example, dendrochronological data suggested highly resilient tree growth, since it was based only on the "surviving" portion of the population, thus failing to identify past demographic changes evident through remote sensing. We therefore suggest that evaluation of forest resilience should be based on several metrics, each suited for detecting transitions at a different level of organization.