Austerity Policies and Mortality Rates in European Countries, 2011-2015

Is Austerity Responsible for the Stalled Mortality Trends Across Many High-Income Countries? A Systematic Review

This article systematically reviews evidence evaluating whether macroeconomic austerity policies impact mortality, reviewing high-income country data compiled through systematic searches of nine databases and gray literature using pre-specified methods (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020226609). Eligible studies were quantitatively assessed to determine austerity's impact on mortality. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias using ROBINS-I. Synthesis without meta-analysis was conducted due to heterogeneity. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE framework. Of 5,720 studies screened, seven were included, with harmful effects of austerity policies demonstrated in six, and no effect in one. Consistent harmful impacts of austerity were demonstrated for all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality across studies and different austerity measures. Excess mortality was higher in countries with greater exposure to austerity. Certainty of evidence was low. Risk of bias was moderate to critical. A typical austerity dose was associated with 74,090 [-40,632, 188,792] and 115,385 [26,324, 204,446] additional deaths per year. Austerity policies are consistently associated with adverse mortality outcomes, but the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain and may depend on how austerity is implemented (e.g., balance between public spending reductions or tax rises, and distributional consequences). Policymakers should be aware of potential harmful health effects of austerity policies.

Influenza: cause or excuse? An analysis of flu's influence on worsening mortality trends in England and Wales, 2010-19

BACKGROUND

England and Wales experienced a stagnation of previously improving life expectancy during the 2010s. Public bodies cited influenza as an important cause.

SOURCES OF DATA

We used data from the Office for National Statistics to examine mortality attributed directly to influenza and to all influenza-like diseases for the total population of England and Wales 2010-19. Several combinations of ICD-10 codes were used to address the possibility of under-counting influenza deaths.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Deaths from influenza and influenza-like diseases declined between 2010 and 2019, while earlier improvements in mortality from all causes of death were stalling and, with some causes, worsening. Our findings support existing research showing that influenza is not an important cause of the stalling of mortality rates 2010-19.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

Influenza was accepted by many as an important cause of stalling life expectancy for much of the 2010s, while few in public office have accepted austerity as a key factor in the changes seen during that time.

GROWING POINTS

This adds to the mounting evidence that austerity damaged health prior to COVID-19 and left the population more vulnerable when it arrived.

AREAS FOR DEVELOPING TIMELY RESEARCH

Future research should explore why so many in public office were quick to attribute the change in trends in overall mortality in the UK in this period to influenza, and why many continue to do so through to 2023 and to deny the key role of austerity in harming population health.

Assessing the effects of population-level political, economic and social exposures, interventions and policies on inclusive economy outcomes for health equity in high-income countries: a systematic review of reviews

BACKGROUND

A fairer economy is increasingly recognised as crucial for tackling widening social, economic and health inequalities within society. However, which actions have been evaluated for their impact on inclusive economy outcomes is yet unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Identify the effects of political, economic and social exposures, interventions and policies on inclusive economy (IE) outcomes in high-income countries, by systematically reviewing the review-level evidence.

METHODS

We conducted a review of reviews; searching databases (May 2020) EconLit, Web of Science, Sociological Abstracts, ASSIA, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Public Health Database, Embase and MEDLINE; and registries PROSPERO, Campbell Collaboration and EPPI Centre (February 2021) and grey literature (August/September 2020). We aimed to identify reviews which examined social, political and/or economic exposures, interventions and policies in relation to two IE outcome domains: (i) equitable distribution of the benefits of the economy and (ii) equitable access to the resources needed to participate in the economy. Reviews had to include primary studies which compared IE outcomes within or between groups. Quality was assessed using a modified version of AMSTAR-2 and data synthesised informed by SWiM principles.

RESULTS

We identified 19 reviews for inclusion, most of which were low quality, as was the underlying primary evidence. Most reviews (n = 14) had outcomes relating to the benefits of the economy (rather than access to resources) and examined a limited set of interventions, primarily active labour market programmes and social security. There was limited high-quality review evidence to draw upon to identify effects on IE outcomes. Most reviews focused on disadvantaged groups and did not consider equity impacts.

CONCLUSIONS

Review-level evidence is sparse and focuses on 'corrective' approaches. Future reviews should examine a diverse set of 'upstream' actions intended to be inclusive 'by design' and consider a wider range of outcomes, with particular attention to socioeconomic inequalities.

Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales

BACKGROUND

The UK Government's 'welfare reform' programme included reductions to social security payments, phased in over the financial years 2011/2012-2015/2016. Previous studies of social security cuts and health outcomes have been restricted to analysing single UK countries or single payment types (eg, housing benefit). We examined the association between all social security cuts fully implemented by 2016 and life expectancy, for local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.

METHODS

Our unit of analysis was 201 upper tier local authorities (unitary authorities and county councils: 147 in England, 32 in Scotland, 22 in Wales). Our exposure was estimated social security loss per head of the working age population per year for each local authority, calculated against the baseline in 2010/2011. The primary outcome was annual life expectancy at birth between the calendar years 2012 and 2016 (year lagged following exposure). We used a panel regression approach with fixed effects.

RESULTS

Social security cuts implemented by 2016 were estimated to be £475 per head of the working age population in England, £390 in Scotland and £490 in Wales since 2010/2011. During the study period, there was either no improvement or only marginal increases in national life expectancy. Social security loss and life expectancy were significantly associated: an estimated £100 decrease in social security per head of working age population was associated with a 1-month reduction in life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Social security cuts, at the UK local authority level, were associated with lower life expectancy. Further research should examine causality.

Crisis politics of dehumanisation during COVID-19: A framework for mapping the social processes through which dehumanisation undermines human dignity

The COVID-19 global pandemic is understood to be a multidimensional crisis, and yet undertheorised is how it reinforced the politics of dehumanisation. This article proposes an original framework that explains how dehumanisation undermines the human dignity of individuals with minoritised socio-economic identities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework identifies four interrelated mechanisms of crisis-driven dehumanisation: threat construction, expanded state coercion, reinforcement of hierarchies, and normalisation of deaths. The article argues that an understanding of these mechanisms is crucial for capturing the complexity of human rights deterioration during the COVID-19 pandemic. The article uses the plausibility probe method to demonstrate macro-processes of dehumanisation, with illustrative empirical examples from diverse societies during COVID-19. It proposes a framework for understanding these dehumanisation processes that can apply to other transnational crises.

Local Fiscal Pressure and Public Health: Evidence from China

Under the dual challenges of global downward economic pressure and the COVID-19 pandemic, studying the impact of local government fiscal pressure on public health is a meaningful endeavor. First, this paper analyzes the impact of local government fiscal pressure on public health and clarifies its impact mechanisms. Second, by utilizing panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2020, two-way fixed-effects and mediating-effects models are developed to identify the effects and impact mechanisms of local government fiscal pressure on public health. The results show that local government fiscal pressure can be detrimental to public health through three main mechanisms: reducing public health fiscal expenditures, hindering industrial structure upgrading, and exacerbating environmental pollution. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the negative effects of local government fiscal pressure on public health mainly exist in Central and Western China. Accordingly, three policy implications are proposed: optimizing the fiscal system, accelerating industrial upgrading, and improving the appraisal system of local officers.

When experts disagree: interviews with public health experts on health outcomes in the UK 2010-2020

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the views of public health experts on adverse trends in life expectancy across England and Wales over the past decade, causal factors, possible solutions, and their opinions about how the prepandemic situation influenced the UK's COVID-19 response.

STUDY DESIGN

Semistructured, in-depth interviews.

METHODS

Nineteen public health experts were identified by purposeful sampling and invited to take part via e-mail. Sixty-three percent responded and participated (n = 12), six females and six males. Interviews took place via Microsoft Teams between November 2021 and January 2022. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using thematic content analysis.

RESULTS

There was no consensus on the significance of the stalling and, at some ages, reversal of previous improvements in life expectancy between 2010 and 2020. Explanations offered included data misinterpretation, widening health inequalities, and disinvestment in public services, as well as some disease-specific causes. Those accepting that the decline was concerning linked it to social factors and suggested solutions based on increased investment and implementing existing evidence on how to reduce health inequalities. These interviewees also pointed to the same factors playing a role in the UK's poor COVID-19 response, highlighting the need to understand and address these underlying issues as part of pandemic preparedness.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no consensus among a group of influential public health experts in the UK on the scale, nature, and explanations of recent trends in life expectancy. A majority called for implementation of existing evidence on reducing inequalities, especially in the wake of COVID-19. However, without agreement on what the problem is, action is likely to remain elusive.

How much of the stalled mortality trends in Scotland and England can be attributed to obesity?

OBJECTIVES

The rate of improvement in all-cause mortality rates has slowed in the UK since around 2012. While evidence suggests that UK Government 'austerity' policies have been largely responsible, it has been proposed that rising obesity may also have contributed. The aim here was to estimate this contribution for Scotland and England.

METHODS

We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) resulting from changes in Body Mass Index (BMI) between the mid-1990s and late 2000s for all-cause mortality among 35-89-year olds in 2017-2019. We used BMI data from national surveys (the Scottish Health Survey and the Health Survey for England), and HRs from a meta-analysis of 89 European studies. PAFs were applied to mortality data for 2017-2019 (obtained from national registries), enabling comparison of observed rates, BMI-adjusted rates and projected rates. Uncertainty in the estimates is dominated by the assumptions used and biases in the underlying data, rather than random variation. A series of sensitivity analyses and bias assessments were therefore undertaken to understand the certainty of the estimates.

RESULTS

In Scotland, an estimated 10% (males) and 14% (females) of the difference between observed and predicted mortality rates in 2017-2019 may be attributable to previous changes in BMI. The equivalent figures for England were notably higher: 20% and 35%, respectively. The assessments of bias suggest these are more likely to be overestimates than underestimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Some of the recent stalled mortality trends in Scotland and England may be associated with earlier increases in obesity. Policies to reduce the obesogenic environment, including its structural and commercial determinants, and reverse the impacts of austerity, are needed.

Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women?

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates across the UK stopped improving in the early 2010s, largely attributable to UK Government's 'austerity' policies. Such policies are thought to disproportionately affect women in terms of greater financial impact and loss of services. The aim here was to investigate whether the mortality impact of austerity-in terms of when rates changed and the scale of excess deaths-has also been worse for women.

METHODS

All-cause mortality data by sex, age, Great Britain (GB) nation and deprivation quintile were obtained from national agencies. Trends in age-standardised mortality rates were calculated, and segmented regression analyses used to identify break points between 1981 and 2019. Excess deaths were calculated for 2012-2019 based on comparison of observed deaths with numbers predicted by the linear trend for 1981-2011.

RESULTS

Changes in trends were observed for both men and women, especially for those living in the 20% most deprived areas. In those areas, mortality increased between 2010/2012 and 2017/2019 among women but not men. Break points in trends occurred at similar time points. Approximately 335 000 more deaths occurred between 2012 and 2019 than was expected based on previous trends, with the excess greater among men.

CONCLUSIONS

It remains unclear whether there are sex differences in UK austerity-related health effects. Nonetheless, this study provides further evidence of adverse trends in the UK and the associated scale of excess deaths. There is a clear need for such policies to be reversed, and for policies to be implemented to protect the most vulnerable in society.

Is austerity a cause of slower improvements in mortality in high-income countries? A panel analysis

BACKGROUND

The rate of improvement in mortality slowed across many high-income countries after 2010. Following the 2007-08 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy was dominated by austerity as countries attempted to address perceived problems of growing state debt and government budget deficits. This study estimates the impact of austerity on mortality trends for 37 high-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

We fitted a suite of fixed-effects panel regression models to mortality data (period life expectancy, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-stratified mortality rates and lifespan variation). Austerity was measured using the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index (AAFI), Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB), real indexed Government Expenditure, and Public Social Spending as a % of GDP. Sensitivity analyses varied the lag times, and confined the panel to economic downturns and to non-oil-dominated economies.

RESULTS

Slower improvements, or deteriorations, in life expectancy and mortality trends were seen in the majority of countries, with the worst trends in England & Wales, Estonia, Iceland, Scotland, Slovenia, and the USA, with generally worse trends for females than males. Austerity was implemented across all countries for at least some time when measured by AAFI and CAPB, and for many countries across all four measures (and particularly after 2010). Austerity adversely impacted life expectancy, ASMR, age-specific mortality and lifespan variation trends when measured with Government Expenditure, Public Social Spending and CAPB, but not with AAFI. However, when the dataset was restricted to periods of economic downturn and in economies not dominated hydrocarbon production, all measures of austerity were found to reduce the rate of mortality improvement.

INTERPRETATION

Stalled mortality trends and austerity are widespread phenomena across high-income countries. Austerity is likely to be a cause of stalled mortality trends. Governments should consider alternative economic policy approaches if these harmful population health impacts are to be avoided.

Disparities in premature mortality: Evidence for the OECD countries

This paper studies the existence of international health outcome disparities. We focus on the use of the potential years of life lost for a database that includes information from 33 OECD countries and covers the period 1990-2017. The methodology proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007) allows us to reject the existence of a single pattern of behaviour between countries for both males and females, suggesting the existence of severe health outcome inequalities. This methodology estimates the existence of four convergence clubs whose composition slightly varies when comparing the male and female cases. Some socioeconomic factors are found to be very important in explaining the forces that may drive the creation of these convergence clubs. In particular, the evolution of the economy and health policies are pivotal to understanding the creation of these estimated convergence clubs. Additionally, our results offer evidence in favor of the importance of environmental policies to explain these health outcome differences.

Overall mortality trends in Greece during the first period of austerity and the economic crisis (2009-2015)

OBJECTIVES

The economic crisis and the resulting austerity in Greece led to a drastic reduction in healthcare spending, which has been assumed to have impacted people's health. This paper discusses official standardized mortality rates in Greece between 2000 and 2015.

METHODS

This study was designed to analyze population-level data and collected data from the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Eurostat, and the Hellenic Statistics Authority. Separate linear regression models were developed for the periods before and after the crisis and were compared.

RESULTS

Standardized mortality rates do not support a previously reported assumption of a specific and direct negative effect of austerity on global mortality. Standardized rates continued to decrease linearly, and their correlation to economic variables changed after 2009. Total infant mortality rates show an overall rising trend since 2009, but the interpretation is unclear because of the reduction in the absolute number of deliveries.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality data from the first six years of the financial crisis in Greece and the decade that preceded do not support the assumption that budget cuts in health are related to the dramatic worsening of the overall health of the Greek people. Still, data suggest an increase in specific causes of death and the burden on a dysfunctional and unprepared health system that is working in an overstretched manner trying to meet needs. The dramatic acceleration of the aging of the population constitutes a specific challenge for the health system. HIPPOKRATIA 2022, 26 (3):98-104.

What are the mental health consequences of austerity measures in public housing? A quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

As governments around the world implement austerity measures to reduce national deficits, there is an urgent need to investigate potential health impacts of specific measures to avoid unintended consequences. In 2013, the UK government implemented the underoccupancy penalty (ie, the bedroom tax) to reduce the national housing benefits bill, by cutting social housing subsidies for households deemed to have excess rooms. We investigated the impact of the bedroom tax on self-reported psychological distress.

METHODS

Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2010-2014), the sample included those who received housing subsidies, aged 16-60, living in England. Control and treatment groupings were identified on their household composition and housing situation. We used matching methods to create an exchangeable set of observations. Difference-in-differences analysis was performed to examine changes across the prereform and postreform psychological distress of the treatment and control groups, using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire.

RESULTS

The implementation of the reform was associated with a moderate increase in psychological distress (0.88, 95% CI 0.06 to 1.71) among the treatment group, relative to the control group. However, the announcement was not associated with change in psychological distress (0.53, 95% CI 0.21 to 1.27).

CONCLUSION

Our study provides evidence that the implementation of housing austerity measures can increase psychological distress among social housing tenants. As the use of austerity measures become more widespread, policy-makers should consider supplementary interventions to ameliorate potential negative health consequences.

The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-Occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies

Extensive empirical health research leverages variation in the timing and location of policy changes as quasi-experiments. Multiple social policies may be adopted simultaneously in the same locations, creating co-occurrence that must be addressed analytically for valid inferences. The pervasiveness and consequences of co-occurring policies have received limited attention. We analyzed a systematic sample of 13 social policy databases covering diverse domains including poverty, paid family leave, and tobacco use. We quantified policy co-occurrence in each database as the fraction of variation in each policy measure across different jurisdictions and times that could be explained by covariation with other policies. We used simulations to estimate the ratio of the variance of effect estimates under the observed policy co-occurrence to variance if policies were independent. Policy co-occurrence ranged from very high for state-level cannabis policies to low for country-level sexual minority-rights policies. For 65% of policies, greater than 90% of the place-time variation was explained by other policies. Policy co-occurrence increased the variance of effect estimates by a median of 57-fold. Co-occurring policies are common and pose a major methodological challenge to rigorously evaluating health effects of individual social policies. When uncontrolled, co-occurring policies confound one another, and when controlled, resulting positivity violations may substantially inflate the variance of estimated effects. Tools to enhance validity and precision for evaluating co-occurring policies are needed.

What to Do When Everything Happens at Once: Analytic Approaches to Estimate the Health Effects of Co-Occurring Social Policies

Social policies have great potential to improve population health and reduce health disparities. Increasingly, those doing empirical research have sought to quantify the health effects of social policies by exploiting variation in the timing of policy changes across places. Multiple social policies are often adopted simultaneously or in close succession in the same locations, creating co-occurrence that must be handled analytically for valid inferences. Although this is a substantial methodological challenge for researchers aiming to isolate social policy effects, only in a limited number of studies have researchers systematically considered analytic solutions within a causal framework or assessed whether these solutions are being adopted. We designated 7 analytic solutions to policy co-occurrence, including efforts to disentangle individual policy effects and efforts to estimate the combined effects of co-occurring policies. We used an existing systematic review of social policies and health to evaluate how often policy co-occurrence is identified as a threat to validity and how often each analytic solution is applied in practice. Of the 55 studies, only in 17 (31%) did authors report checking for any co-occurring policies, although in 36 studies (67%), at least 1 approach was used that helps address policy co-occurrence. The most common approaches were adjusting for measures of co-occurring policies; defining the outcome on subpopulations likely to be affected by the policy of interest (but not other co-occurring policies); and selecting a less-correlated measure of policy exposure. As health research increasingly focuses on policy changes, we must systematically assess policy co-occurrence and apply analytic solutions to strengthen studies on the health effects of social policies.

Excess mortality in Glasgow: further evidence of 'political effects' on population health

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to update previous analyses of 'excess mortality' in Glasgow (Scotland) relative to the similar postindustrial cities of Liverpool and Manchester (England). The excess is defined as mortality after adjustment for socio-economic deprivation; thus, we sought to compare changes over time in both the deprivation profiles of the cities and the levels of deprivation-adjusted mortality in Glasgow relative to the other cities. This is important not only because the original analyses are now increasingly out of date but also because since publication, important (prepandemic) changes to mortality trends have been observed across all parts of the United Kingdom.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Replicating as far as possible the methods of the original study, we developed a three-city deprivation index based on the creation of spatial units in Glasgow that were of similar size to those in Liverpool and Manchester (average population sizes of approximately 1600, 1500 and 1700 respectively) and an area-based measure of 'employment deprivation'. Mortality and matching population data by age, sex and small area were obtained from national agencies for two periods: 2003-2007 (the period covered by the original study) and 2014-2018. The rates of employment deprivation for each city's small areas were calculated for both periods. Indirectly standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for Glasgow relative to Liverpool and Manchester, standardised by age and three-city deprivation decile. For context, city-level trends in age-standardised mortality rates by year, sex and city were also calculated.

RESULTS

There was evidence of a stalling of improvement in mortality rates in all three cities from the early 2010s. After adjustment for area deprivation, all-cause mortality in Glasgow in 2014-2018 was c.12% higher than in Liverpool and Manchester for all ages (SMR 112.4, 95% CI 111.1-113.6) and c.17% higher for deaths under 65 years (SMR 117.1, 95% CI 114.5-119.7). The excess was higher for males (17% compared with 9% for deaths at all ages; 25% compared with 5% for 0-64 years) and for particular causes of death such as suicide and drug-related and alcohol-related causes. The results were broadly similar to those previously described for 2003-2007, although the excess for premature mortality was notably lower. In part, this was explained by changes in levels of employment deprivation, which had decreased to a greater degree in the English cities: this was particularly true of Manchester (a reduction of -43%, compared with -38% in Liverpool and -31% in Glasgow) where the overall population size had also increased to a much greater extent than in the other cities.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of excess mortality persist in Glasgow. With the political causes recently established - the excess is a 'political effect', not a 'Glasgow effect' - political solutions are required. Thus, previously published recommendations aimed at addressing poverty, inequality and vulnerability in the city are still highly relevant. However, given the evidence of more recent, UK-wide, political effects on mortality - widening mortality inequalities resulting from UK Government 'austerity' measures - additional policies at UK Government level to protect, and restore, the income of the poorest in society are also urgently needed.

COVID-19: decision-making in public health

Against a background of stalling UK life expectancy, the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a different way of working for public health to respond quickly to new and many demands. At the same time, public health teams had to ensure they did not concentrate on the immediate crisis at the expense of mitigating longer-term impacts of the pandemic. This was, and is, a major challenge with additional demands on an already hard-pressed workforce. This paper discusses the experience of a local public health department in responding to the pandemic and raises four key areas that influenced decisions and need to be considered in future. These are care homes issues, addressing all four harms of the pandemic, lessons for behaviour change and the need to strengthen Scotland's public health workforce.

Trends and equity in the use of health services in Spain and Germany around austerity in Europe

Background

Following the 2008 economic crisis many countries implemented austerity policies, including reducing public spending on health services. This paper evaluates the trends and equity in the use of health services during and after that period in Spain – a country with austerity policies – and in Germany – a country without restriction on healthcare spending.

Methods

Data from several National Surveys in Spain and several waves of the Socio-Economic Panel in Germany, carried out between 2009 and 2017, were used. The dependent variables were number of doctor’s consultations and whether or not a hospital admission occurred. The measure of socioeconomic position was education. In each year, the estimates were made for people with and without pre-existing health problems. First, the average number of doctor’s consultations and the percentage of respondents who had had been hospitalized were calculated. Second, the relationship between education and use of those health services was estimated by calculating the difference in consultations using covariance analysis – in the case of number of consultations – and by calculating the percentage ratio using binomial regression – in the case of hospitalization.

Results

The annual mean number of consultations went down in both countries. In Spain the average was 14.2 in 2009 and 10.4 in 2017 for patients with chronic conditions; 16.6 and 13.5 for those with a mental illness; and 6.4 and 5.9 for those without a defined illness. In Germany, the averages were 13.8 (2009) and 12.9 (2017) for the chronic group; 21.1 and 17.0 for mental illness; and 8.7 and 7.5 with no defined illness. The hospitalization frequency also decreased in both countries. The majority of the analyses presented no significant differences in relation to education.

Conclusion

In both Spain and Germany, service use decreased between 2009 and 2017. In the first few years, this reduction coincided with a period of austerity in Spain. In general, we did not find socioeconomic differences in health service use.

Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis

OBJECTIVES

Previously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail.

DESIGN

Population-based trend analysis.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

Whole populations of countries and selected cities of the UK.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

European age-standardised mortality rates (calculated by cause of death, country, city, year (1981-2017), age group, sex and-for all countries and Scottish cities-deprivation quintiles); changes in rates between 5-year periods; summary measures of both relative (relative index of inequality) and absolute (slope index of inequality) inequalities.

RESULTS

Changes in mortality from around 2011/2013 were observed throughout the UK for all adult age groups. For example, all-age female rates decreased by approximately 4%-6% during the 1980s and 1990s, approximately 7%-9% during the 2000s, but by <1% between 2011/2013 and 2015/2017. Equivalent figures for men were 4%-7%, 8%-12% and 1%-3%, respectively. This later period saw increased mortality among the most deprived populations, something observed in all countries and cities analysed, and for most causes of death: absolute and relative inequalities therefore increased. Although similar trends were seen across all parts of the UK, particular issues apply in Scotland, for example, higher and increasing drug-related mortality (with the highest rates observed in Dundee and Glasgow).

CONCLUSIONS

The study presents further evidence of changing mortality in the UK. The timing, geography and socioeconomic gradients associated with the changes appear to support suggestions that they may result, at least in part, from UK Government 'austerity' measures which have disproportionately affected the poorest.

The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare 'reforms' have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.

METHODS

We applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.

RESULTS

We estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (-20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (-23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

Recent quantitative research on determinants of health in high income countries: A scoping review

Background

Identifying determinants of health and understanding their role in health production constitutes an important research theme. We aimed to document the state of recent multi-country research on this theme in the literature.

Methods

We followed the PRISMA-ScR guidelines to systematically identify, triage and review literature (January 2013—July 2019). We searched for studies that performed cross-national statistical analyses aiming to evaluate the impact of one or more aggregate level determinants on one or more general population health outcomes in high-income countries. To assess in which combinations and to what extent individual (or thematically linked) determinants had been studied together, we performed multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis.

Results

Sixty studies were selected, out of an original yield of 3686. Life-expectancy and overall mortality were the most widely used population health indicators, while determinants came from the areas of healthcare, culture, politics, socio-economics, environment, labor, fertility, demographics, life-style, and psychology. The family of regression models was the predominant statistical approach. Results from our multidimensional scaling showed that a relatively tight core of determinants have received much attention, as main covariates of interest or controls, whereas the majority of other determinants were studied in very limited contexts. We consider findings from these studies regarding the importance of any given health determinant inconclusive at present. Across a multitude of model specifications, different country samples, and varying time periods, effects fluctuated between statistically significant and not significant, and between beneficial and detrimental to health.

Conclusions

We conclude that efforts to understand the underlying mechanisms of population health are far from settled, and the present state of research on the topic leaves much to be desired. It is essential that future research considers multiple factors simultaneously and takes advantage of more sophisticated methodology with regards to quantifying health as well as analyzing determinants’ influence.

Is austerity responsible for the recent change in mortality trends across high-income nations? A protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION

Mortality rates in many high-income countries have changed from their long-term trends since around 2011. This paper sets out a protocol for testing the extent to which economic austerity can explain the variance in recent mortality trends across high-income countries.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an ecological natural experiment study, which will use regression adjustment to account for differences in exposure, outcomes and confounding. All high-income countries with available data will be included in the sample. The timing of any changes in the trends for four measures of austerity (the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index, real per capita government expenditure, public social spending and the cyclically adjusted primary balance) will be identified and the cumulative difference in exposure to these measures thereafter will be calculated. These will be regressed against the difference in the mean annual change in life expectancy, mortality rates and lifespan variation compared with the previous trends, with an initial lag of 2 years after the identified change point in the exposure measure. The role of underemployment and individual incomes as outcomes in their own right and as mediating any relationship between austerity and mortality will also be considered. Sensitivity analyses varying the lag period to 0 and 5 years, and adjusting for recession, will be undertaken.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All of the data used for this study are publicly available, aggregated datasets with no individuals identifiable. There is, therefore, no requirement for ethical committee approval for the study. The study will be lodged within the National Health Service research governance system. All results of the study will be published following sharing with partner agencies. No new datasets will be created as part of this work for deposition or curation.

Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries

OBJECTIVE

Gains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income countries in recent years. Scotland has consistently had a lower life expectancy than many other high-income countries over the past 70 years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in Scotland to those seen internationally and to assess the timing and importance of any recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland.

SETTING

Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and USA.

METHODS

We used life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy change for 24 high-income countries over 5-year periods from 1992 to 2016. Linear regression was used to assess the association between life expectancy in 2011 and mean life expectancy change over the subsequent 5 years. One-break and two-break segmented regression models were used to test the timing of mortality rate changes in Scotland between 1990 and 2018.

RESULTS

Mean improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016 were smallest among women (<2 weeks/year) in Northern Ireland, Iceland, England and Wales, and the USA and among men (<5 weeks/year) in Iceland, USA, England and Wales, and Scotland. Japan, Korea and countries of Eastern Europe had substantial gains in life expectancy over the same period. The best estimate of when mortality rates changed to a slower rate of improvement in Scotland was the year to 2012 quarter 4 for men and the year to 2014 quarter 2 for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy improvement has stalled across many, but not all, high-income countries. The recent change in the mortality trend in Scotland occurred within the period 2012-2014. Further research is required to understand these trends, but governments must also take timely action on plausible contributors.

Research paradigms and the politics of nursing knowledge: A reflective discussion

A standard view would suggest that research is a neutral apolitical activity. It neutralizes external pressures by its fidelity to robust scientific methods. However, politics is an inevitable part of human knowledge. Our knowledge of the world is always mediated by human priorities. What matters is therefore a contested and political debate rather a neutral accumulation of factual data. How researchers manage this varies. Research paradigms are one way in which research engages with knowledge. They frame knowledge within epistemological and ontological philosophies. In this paper, I will explore this view in relation to neo-positivism, qualitative research, Foucault and critical realism. I will argue that if nursing knowledge is to be effective it needs to acknowledge the political, particularly in the context of neoliberalism. Healthcare systems are having to cope with a social world increasingly dominated by market fundamentalism, extreme levels of inequality and a rise in xenophobia. These forces are undermining the provision of ethically sound health care, misdirecting research practice and contributing to a discourse of dehumanization. These forces need to be challenged politically and I will argue that epistemologically diverse approaches, alongside a realist ontology can provide a way forward for nursing research.