Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe - preliminary pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network, March to April 2020

Excess All-Cause Mortality by Age and Gender During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2020-2022

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 has had a profound impact on global mortality and morbidity, yet only a fraction of deaths was confirmed and reported. We estimated all-cause excess mortality from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2022 in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) to assess the true magnitude of the pandemic.

METHODS

Data for this analysis was sourced from the FBiH mortality register and supplemented with population statistics and official COVID-19 death counts (i.e., cases where COVID-19 was registered as the cause of death). Using a Poisson model, all-cause excess number of deaths and rates per 100,000 person-years, adjusted for registration delays and stratified by age and gender, were calculated.

RESULTS

FBiH experienced three periods of excess all-cause mortality throughout the first 3 years of the pandemic, with a total of 12,000 excess deaths, highest among adults 45-74 years and males. No excess mortality was observed in children <15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The true mortality impact of COVID-19 in FBiH was substantially higher than the reported deaths, including among younger adults. Strengthening civil registration and vital statistics, including establishment of all-cause mortality surveillance, is essential for improved monitoring of future pandemics and other important public health events. A detailed review of the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on mortality should be conducted to identify areas that require more resources, improve health provision and inform mitigation efforts in future pandemics to save lives.

[Overall excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality in Brazil and Brazilian regions in 2020]

This study aimed to evaluate the overall excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality in the regions of Brazil, in 2020, by sex and age group. An ecological study was carried out to calculate the overall excess mortality, by sex and age group, using the expected number of deaths in a non-pandemic context and the deaths observed in 2020. Data on deaths were extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System, in addition to population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Excess mortality was calculated considering: the difference between the mortality rates observed in 2020 and the average of the rates from 2015 to 2019, standardized by age; and the difference between observed deaths obtained via a quasi-Poisson model and the deaths expected for 2020. In Brazil, the standardized overall mortality rate in 2020 was 590 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, with excess mortality of 44 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, while the mortality rate from COVID-19 was 79 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest overall mortality rates were observed in the North and Northeast regions. The excess deaths estimated by the ratio between observed and expected deaths nationwide in 2020 was 16%; of which 17% were males, 16% were females, 7% were individuals from 0 to 59 years old, and 20% were individuals aged 60 years or older. These outcomes enabled a better understanding on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality in Brazil in 2020, indicating a more pronounced excess mortality in the North, Northeast and Central-West regions and among men older than 60 years.

Unraveling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality trends in Belgium between 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

Over the past four years, the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on public health, including on mortality trends. This study investigates mortality patterns in Belgium by examining all-cause mortality, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We retrieved all-cause mortality data from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2022, stratified by age group and sex. A linear mixed model, informed by all-cause mortality from 2009 to 2019, was used to predict non-pandemic all-cause mortality rates in 2020-2022 and estimate excess mortality. Further, we also analyzed trends in cause-specific and premature mortality.

RESULTS

Different all-cause mortality patterns could be observed between the younger (<45 years) and older age groups. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was particularly evident among older age groups. The highest excess mortality occurred in 2020, while a reversal in this trend was evident in 2022. We observed a notable effect of COVID-19 on cause-specific and premature mortality patterns over the three-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a consistent decline in COVID-19 reported mortality over this three-year period, it remains imperative to meticulously monitor mortality trends in the years ahead.

Gender-Based Socio-Economic Inequalities in the Pre-Vaccination Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Istanbul: A Neighborhood-Level Analysis of Excess Mortality

Worldwide excess mortality (EM) data have the potential to provide a better estimation of the impact of the pandemic. This study aims to investigate and map the inequalities in EM in Istanbul during the pre-vaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and its association with selected demographic and socio-economic variables at the neighborhood level according to gender. This ecological study was conducted with the EM data of Istanbul. The EM data were obtained from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) and analyzed according to socio-demographic indicators (gender, age), neighborhood-level indicators (population density, educational attainment) and neighborhood vulnerability (socio-economic and transportation) for the 808 neighborhoods, then presented separately according to gender to examine gender-specific factors. Socio-economic and transportation vulnerability indexes are provided the IMM. The excess mortality rate per 1000 (EMR) in 2020 has been calculated by using the number of deaths in the years 2018-2019. We have mapped EMRs of each neighborhood and used linear regression analysis in three datasets to examine gender specific factors. EMRs in Istanbul showed two peaks one in April and one in November. Male EMRs were higher compared to females in Istanbul during the pre-vaccination era of the pandemic. Higher EMRs were observed in neighborhoods with a higher share of 50+ year old age groups and higher neighborhood socio-economic vulnerability scores. Neighborhood socio-economic vulnerability was significantly associated with EMRs in males but not in females. Unequal distribution of EM between neighborhoods underlines the need for gender-specific pandemic measures to alleviate the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in socio-economically vulnerable settings. Increased use of area-based indicators with a gender perspective can enhance pandemic measures.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID-associated mortality: A descriptive longitudinal study of UK data

Background

It has been previously reported in the literature that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in overall excess deaths and an increase in non-COVID deaths during the pandemic period.Specifically, our research elucidates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID associated mortality.

Study aim

To compare mortality rates in non-COVID conditions before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales.

Study design

Annual mortality data for the years 2011-2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 (pandemic) in England and Wales were retrieved from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). These data were filtered by ICD-10 codes for nine conditions with high associated mortality. We calculated mortality numbers - overall and age stratified (20-64 and 65+ years) and rates per 100 000, using annual mid-year population estimates.

Methods

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted using segmented quasi-Poisson regression to identify whether there was a statistically significant change (p < 0.05) in condition-specific death rates following the pandemic onset.

Results

Eight of the nine conditions investigated in this study had significant changes in mortality rate during the pandemic period (2020). All-age mortality rate was significantly increased in: 'Symptoms Signs and Ill-defined conditions', 'Cirrhosis and Other Diseases of the Liver', and 'Malignant Neoplasm of the Breast', whereas 'Chronic Lower Respiratory Disorders' saw a significant decrease. Age-stratified analyses also revealed significant increases in the 20-64 age-group in: 'Cerebrovascular Disorders', 'Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease', and 'Ischaemic Heart Diseases'.

Conclusion

Trends in non-COVID condition-specific mortality rates from 2011 to 2020 revealed that some non-COVID conditions were disproportionately affected during the pandemic. This may be due to the direct impact COVID-19 had on these conditions or the effect the public health response had on non-COVID risk factor development and condition-related management. Further work is required to understand the reasons behind these disproportionate changes.

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

INTRODUCTION

To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.

METHODS

Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.

RESULTS

Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.

Mixed effects modelling of excess mortality and COVID-19 lockdowns in Thailand

Accurate mortality data are critical for understanding the impact of COVID-19 and learning lessons from crisis responses. But published statistics risk misrepresenting deaths due to limited testing, underreporting, and lack of subnational data, especially in developing countries. Thailand experienced four COVID-19 waves between January 2020 and December 2021, and used a color-coded, province-level system for lockdowns. To account for deaths directly and indirectly caused by COVID-19, this paper uses mixed effects modelling to estimate counterfactual deaths for 2020-2021 and construct a monthly time series of provincial excess mortality. A fixed effects negative binomial and mixed effects Poisson model both substantiate other studies' estimates of excess deaths using subnational data for the first time. Then, panel regression methods are used to characterize the correlations among restrictions, mobility, and excess mortality. The regressions show that mobility reductions modestly curbed mortality immediately upon imposition, suggesting that aversion of non-COVID deaths was a major aspect of the lockdowns' effect in Thailand. However, the estimates are imprecise. An auto-regressive distributed lag model suggests that the effect of lockdowns was through reduced mobility, but the effectiveness appears to have varied over the course of the pandemic.

Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

A proposed analytical approach to estimate excess daily mortality rates in Ecuador

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has proved deadly all over the globe; however, one of the most lethal outbreaks occurred in Ecuador.

Aims

This study aims to highlight the pandemic's impact on the most affected countries worldwide in terms of excess deaths per capita and per day.

Methods

An ecological study of all-cause mortality recorded in Ecuador was performed. To calculate the excess deaths relative to the historical average for the same dates in 2017, 2018, and 2019, we developed a bootstrap method based on the central tendency measure of mean. A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-cause deaths and COVID-19 deaths. A bootstrapping technique was used to emulate the sampling distribution of our expected deaths estimator μ ⌢ d e a t h s by simulating the data generation and model fitting processes daily since the first confirmed case.

Results

In Ecuador, during 2020, 115,070 deaths were reported and 42,453 were cataloged as excess mortality when compared to 2017-2019 period. Ecuador is the country with the highest recorded excess mortality in the world within the shortest timespan. In one single day, Ecuador recorded 1,120 deaths (6/100,000), which represents an additional 408% of the expected fatalities.

Conclusion

Adjusting for population size and time, the hardest-hit country due to the COVID-19 pandemic was Ecuador. The mortality excess rate shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread rapidly in Ecuador, especially in the coastal region. Our results and the proposed new methodology could help to address the real situation of the number of deaths during the initial phase of pandemics.

Comorbidity Patterns and Management in Inpatients with Endocrine Diseases by Age Groups in South Korea: Nationwide Data

This study aimed to examine comorbidity associations across age groups of inpatients with endocrine diseases as the primary diagnosis throughout the life cycle to develop an effective management strategy. Data were obtained from the Korean National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury Survey (KNHDS) from 2006 to 2021, involving 68,515 discharged patients aged ≥ 19 years with a principal diagnosis of endocrine disease. A database was constructed for analysis, extracting general characteristics and comorbidities. Employing R version 4.2.3, the Chi-squared test and the Apriori algorithm of ARM (association rule mining) were used for analyzing general characteristics and comorbidity associations. There were more women (53.1%) than men (46.9%) (p < 0.001, with women (61.2 ± 17.2) having a higher average age than men (58.6 ± 58.6) (p < 0.001). Common comorbidities include unspecified diabetes mellitus; essential (primary) hypertension; unspecified diabetes mellitus; and other disorders of fluid, electrolyte, and acid-base balance. Notably, type 2 diabetes mellitus, disorders of lipoprotein metabolism and other lipidemia, polyneuropathy in diseases classified elsewhere, retinal disorders in diseases classified elsewhere, and essential (primary) hypertension prevail across all age groups. Association rules further highlight specific comorbidities appearing selectively in certain age groups. In conclusion, establishing a management strategy for comorbidities in patients with a primary diagnosis of an endocrine disorder is necessary.

Mortality and healthcare assessment among patients with chronic disease over 2 years of COVID-19: a population-based study in a large hard-hit Italian region

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to provide a region-wide comprehensive account of the indirect effects of COVID-19 on patients with chronic disease, in terms of non-COVID-19 mortality, and access to both inpatient and outpatient health services over a 2-year pandemic period.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective study.

SETTING

Adult patients, affected by at least 1 of 32 prevalent chronic conditions, residing in the Emilia-Romagna Region in Italy, during the years 2020 (N=1 791 189, 47.7% of the overall adult regional population) and 2021 (N=1 801 071, 47.8%).

RESULTS

Overall, non-COVID-19 mortality among patients with chronic disease during the pandemic (2.7%) did not differ substantially from the expected mortality (2.5%), based on a 3 years prepandemic period (2017-2019) and adjusting for the demographic and clinical characteristics of the population under study. Indeed, while the first pandemic wave was characterised by a significant non-COVID-19 excess mortality (March: +35%), the subsequent phases did not show such disruptive variations in non-COVID-19 deaths, which remained around or even below the excess mortality threshold. End-of-life care of patients with chronic disease, especially for non-COVID-19 cases, significantly shifted from hospitalisations (-19%), to homecare (ADI: +7%; w/o ADI: +9%). Overall, healthcare of patients without COVID-19 chronic disease decreased, with similar negative trends in hospitalisations (-15.5%), major procedures (-19.6%) and ER accesses (-23.7%). Homecare was the least affected by the pandemic, with an overall reduction of -9.8%. COVID-19 outbreak also impacted on different types of outpatient care. Rehabilitation therapies, specialist visits, diagnostic and lab tests were considerably reduced during the first pandemic wave and consequent lockdown, with access rates of patients without COVID-19 chronic disease below -60%.

CONCLUSIONS

This work thoroughly describes how a large and well-defined population of patients without COVID-19 chronic disease has been affected by the changes and reorganisation in the healthcare system during 2 years of the pandemic, highlighting health priorities and challenges in chronic disease management under conditions of limited resources.

Real-Time Classification of Causes of Death Using AI: Sensitivity Analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2021, the European Union reported >270,000 excess deaths, including >16,000 in Portugal. The Portuguese Directorate-General of Health developed a deep neural network, AUTOCOD, which determines the primary causes of death by analyzing the free text of physicians' death certificates (DCs). Although AUTOCOD's performance has been established, it remains unclear whether its performance remains consistent over time, particularly during periods of excess mortality.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the sensitivity and other performance metrics of AUTOCOD in classifying underlying causes of death compared with manual coding to identify specific causes of death during periods of excess mortality.

METHODS

We included all DCs between 2016 and 2019. AUTOCOD's performance was evaluated by calculating various performance metrics, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and F1-score, using a confusion matrix. This compared International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health-Related Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10), classifications of DCs by AUTOCOD with those by human coders at the Directorate-General of Health (gold standard). Subsequently, we compared periods without excess mortality with periods of excess, severe, and extreme excess mortality. We defined excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score above the 95% baseline limit, severe excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score >4 SDs, and extreme excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score >6 SDs. Finally, we repeated the analyses for the 3 most common ICD-10 chapters focusing on block-level classification.

RESULTS

We analyzed a large data set comprising 330,098 DCs classified by both human coders and AUTOCOD. AUTOCOD demonstrated high sensitivity (≥0.75) for 10 ICD-10 chapters examined, with values surpassing 0.90 for the more prevalent chapters (chapter II-"Neoplasms," chapter IX-"Diseases of the circulatory system," and chapter X-"Diseases of the respiratory system"), accounting for 67.69% (223,459/330,098) of all human-coded causes of death. No substantial differences were observed in these high-sensitivity values when comparing periods without excess mortality with periods of excess, severe, and extreme excess mortality. The same holds for specificity, which exceeded 0.96 for all chapters examined, and for PPV, which surpassed 0.75 in 9 chapters, including the more prevalent ones. When considering block classification within the 3 most common ICD-10 chapters, AUTOCOD maintained a high performance, demonstrating high sensitivity (≥0.75) for 13 ICD-10 blocks, high PPV for 9 blocks, and specificity of >0.98 in all blocks, with no significant differences between periods without excess mortality and those with excess mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that, during periods of excess and extreme excess mortality, AUTOCOD's performance remains unaffected by potential text quality degradation because of pressure on health services. Consequently, AUTOCOD can be dependably used for real-time cause-specific mortality surveillance even in extreme excess mortality situations.

Excess death estimates from multiverse analysis in 2009-2021

Excess death estimates have great value in public health, but they can be sensitive to analytical choices. Here we propose a multiverse analysis approach that considers all possible different time periods for defining the reference baseline and a range of 1 to 4 years for the projected time period for which excess deaths are calculated. We used data from the Human Mortality Database on 33 countries with detailed age-stratified death information on an annual basis during the period 2009-2021. The use of different time periods for reference baseline led to large variability in the absolute magnitude of the exact excess death estimates. However, the relative ranking of different countries compared to others for specific years remained largely unaltered. The relative ranking of different years for the specific country was also largely independent of baseline. Averaging across all possible analyses, distinct time patterns were discerned across different countries. Countries had declines between 2009 and 2019, but the steepness of the decline varied markedly. There were also large differences across countries on whether the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020-2021 resulted in an increase of excess deaths and by how much. Consideration of longer projected time windows resulted in substantial shrinking of the excess deaths in many, but not all countries. Multiverse analysis of excess deaths over long periods of interest can offer an approach that better accounts for the uncertainty in estimating expected mortality patterns, comparative mortality trends across different countries, and the nature of observed mortality peaks.

Cardiovascular Hospitalizations and Hospitalization Costs in Japan During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, cardiovascular hospitalizations decreased and in-hospital mortality for ST-elevation myocardial infarction and heart failure increased. However, limited research has been conducted on hospitalization and mortality rates for cardiovascular disease (CVD) other than ischemic heart disease and heart failure. Methods and Results: We analyzed the records of 530 certified hospitals affiliated with the Japanese Circulation Society obtained from the nationwide JROAD-DPC database between April 2014 and March 2021. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to predict the counterfactual number of hospitalizations for CVD treatment, assuming there was no pandemic. The observed number of inpatients compared with the predicted number in 2020 was 88.1% for acute CVD, 78% for surgeries or procedures, 77.2% for catheter ablation, and 68.5% for left ventricular assist devices. Furthermore, there was no significant change in in-hospital mortality, and the decrease in hospitalizations for catheter ablation and valvular heart disease constituted 47.6% of the total decrease in annual hospitalization costs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: Cardiovascular hospitalizations decreased by more than 10% in 2020, and the number of patients scheduled for left ventricular assist device implantation decreased by over 30%. In addition, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, annual cardiovascular hospitalization costs were reduced, largely attributed to decreased catheter ablation and valvular heart disease.

Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population

BACKGROUND

Estimating excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributed to coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection provides a comprehensive picture of the mortality burden on society. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age- and sex-specific excess mortality and YLL in Sweden during the first 17 months of the pandemic.

METHODS

In this population-based observational study, we calculated age- and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality and excess YLL during 2020 and the first 5 months of 2021 and cause-specific death [deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, other causes and deaths excluding COVID-19] in 2020 compared with an average baseline for 2017-19 in the whole Swedish population.

RESULTS

COVID-19 deaths contributed 9.9% of total deaths (98 441 deaths, 960 305 YLL) in 2020, accounting for 75 151 YLL (7.7 YLL/death). There were 2672 (5.7%) and 1408 (3.0%) excess deaths, and 19 141 (3.8%) and 3596 (0.8%) excess YLL in men and women, respectively. Men aged 65-110 years and women aged 75-110 years were the greatest contributors. Fewer deaths and YLL from CVD, cancer and other causes were observed in 2020 compared with the baseline adjusted to the population size in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the baseline, excess mortality and YLL from all causes were experienced in Sweden during 2020, with a higher excess observed in men than in women, indicating that more men died at a younger age while more women died at older ages than expected. A notable reduction in deaths and YLL due to CVD suggests a displacement effect from CVD to COVID-19.

The Impact of the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Non-COVID Hospital Care in a Tertiary Hospital in Spain

In 2020, Spain ranked fourth among European countries with the highest excess mortality due to COVID-19 disease. This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID patients in a tertiary hospital during the second pandemic wave in Spain (22 June 2020-6 December 2020). Data from Virgen del Rocío University Hospital in Seville during that timeframe were compared with the data from the same period in the preceding two years (2018-2019). Between-group comparisons were performed using the Chi-squared test, Student's t-test, or Mann-Whitney U tests, as appropriate. A total of 63,137 non-COVID patients were included in this study. During the second pandemic wave, a 19% decrease was observed in the annual number of non-COVID admissions overall (18,260 vs. 22,439, p < 0.001), but a 10% increase in the proportion of emergency admissions (60.6% vs. 54.93%, p < 0.001), a higher severity level of patients (1.79 vs. 1.72, p < 0.001), a longer in-hospital stay (7.02 vs. 6.74 days, p < 0.001), a 26% increase in non-COVID mortality (4.9% vs. 3.9%, p < 0.001), and a 50% increase in global mortality (5.9 vs. 3.9, p < 0.001) were also observed. In terms of both medical and surgical diagnoses, a significant reduction in the number of admissions and an increase in in-hospital mortality were observed. These results demonstrate the significant impact of the pandemic on hospital care, similar to what was previously observed during the initial wave in the same hospital. Our findings emphasize the need to include non-COVID patients when assessing the broad impact of the pandemic on healthcare, beyond its direct effects on COVID-19 patients.

Excess mortality in 22 European countries in 2020 and 2021: relationship with socioeconomic indicators

AIMS

For better understanding of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in different countries, we studied the excess mortality from any cause during 2020 and 2021 in 22 European countries, and its relationship with three socioeconomic variables: life expectancy at birth in 2019, per capita income, and low education level.

METHODS

Using an ecological design, we analyzed excess mortality data between January 2020 and December 2021 in 22 European countries, obtained from the EuroMOMO surveillance system. Using weekly Z-score data for each country, we estimated the annual average deviation in mortality during 2020 and 2021 for each country. We analyzed possible relationships between the excess mortality and three independent variables: gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) in 2020, life expectancy at birth in 2019, and proportion of the population over age 18 years with a lower than secondary education level in 2018.

RESULTS

In the 22 European countries analyzed, the total number of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 was 800,011 (11%) more than expected, with deaths among those aged 65 years and over accounting for 87.66% of these. Excess mortality was higher in 2020, especially in Spain, UK, Italy, and France. In 2021, excess mortality was highest in Hungary, the Netherlands, France, and Germany. Excess mortality during 2021 was inversely correlated with life expectancy (r =-.489, p = .021) and income level (r =-.550, p = .008).

CONCLUSION

Reducing socioeconomic inequalities among countries not only improves conditions of most disadvantages but also will help to reduce excess of mortality from future pandemics.

Novel Connections of Common Childhood Illnesses Based on More Than 5 Million Diary Registrations From Birth Until Age 3 Years

BACKGROUND

All children experience numerous episodes of illness during the first 3 years of life. Most episodes are mild and handled without medical attention but nevertheless burden the families and society. There is a large, and still unexplained, variation in the burden of illness between children.

OBJECTIVE

To describe and provide a better understanding of the disease burden of common childhood diseases through a data-driven approach investigating the communalities between symptom patterns and predefined variables on predispositions, pregnancy, birth, environment, and child development.

METHODS

The study is based on the prospectively followed clinical mother-child cohort COpenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood, which includes 700 children with daily symptom registration in the first 3 years of life, including symptoms of cough, breathlessness, wheeze, cold, pneumonia, sore throat, ear infections, gastrointestinal infections, fever, and eczema. First, we described the number of episodes of symptoms. Next, factor analysis models were used to describe the variation in symptom load in the second year of life (both based on n = 556, with >90% complete diary). Then we characterized patterns of similarity between symptoms using a graphical network model (based on n = 403, with a 3-year monthly compliance of >50%). Finally, predispositions and pregnancy, birth, environmental, and developmental factors were added to the network model.

RESULTS

The children experienced a median of 17 (interquartile range, 12-23) episodes of symptoms during the first 3 years of life, of which most were respiratory tract infections (median, 13; interquartile range, 9-18). The frequency of symptoms was the highest during the second year of life. Eczema symptoms were unrelated to the other symptoms. The strongest association to respiratory symptoms was found for maternal asthma, maternal smoking during the third trimester, prematurity, and CDHR3 genotype. This was in contrast to the lack of associations for the well-established asthma locus at 17q21.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthy young children are burdened by multiple episodes of symptoms during the first 3 years of life. Prematurity, maternal asthma, and CDHR3 genotype were among the strongest drivers of symptom burden.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on total, sex- and age-specific all-cause mortality in 20 countries worldwide during 2020: results from the C-MOR project

BACKGROUND

To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, this study investigates overall, sex- and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020.

METHODS

Total, sex- and age-specific weekly all-cause mortality for 2015-2020 was collected from national vital statistics databases. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 observed mortality against expected mortality, estimated from historical data (2015-2019) accounting for seasonality, long- and short-term trends. Crude and age-standardized rates were analysed for total and sex-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Northern Ireland, Peru, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the USA displayed substantial excess age-standardized mortality of varying duration during 2020, while Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Mauritius, Norway, and Ukraine did not. In sex-specific analyses, excess mortality was higher in males than females, except for Slovenia (higher in females) and Cyprus (similar in both sexes). Lastly, for most countries substantial excess mortality was only detectable (Austria, Cyprus, Israel, and Slovenia) or was higher (Brazil, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Italy, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Peru and the USA) in the oldest age group investigated. Peru demonstrated substantial excess mortality even in the <45 age group.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights that excess all-cause mortality during 2020 is context dependent, with specific countries, sex- and age-groups being most affected. As the pandemic continues, tracking excess mortality is important to accurately estimate the true toll of COVID-19, while at the same time investigating the effects of changing contexts, different variants, testing, quarantine, and vaccination strategies.

Social inequalities and long-term health impact of COVID-19 in Belgium: protocol of the HELICON population data linkage

INTRODUCTION

Data linkage systems have proven to be a powerful tool in support of combating and managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the interoperability and the reuse of different data sources may pose a number of technical, administrative and data security challenges.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol aims to provide a case study for linking highly sensitive individual-level information. We describe the data linkages between health surveillance records and administrative data sources necessary to investigate social health inequalities and the long-term health impact of COVID-19 in Belgium. Data at the national institute for public health, Statistics Belgium and InterMutualistic Agency are used to develop a representative case-cohort study of 1.2 million randomly selected Belgians and 4.5 million Belgians with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis (PCR or antigen test), of which 108 211 are COVID-19 hospitalised patients (PCR or antigen test). Yearly updates are scheduled over a period of 4 years. The data set covers inpandemic and postpandemic health information between July 2020 and January 2026, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, socioeconomic indicators, healthcare use and related costs. Two main research questions will be addressed. First, can we identify socioeconomic and sociodemographic risk factors in COVID-19 testing, infection, hospitalisations and mortality? Second, what is the medium-term and long-term health impact of COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations? More specific objectives are (2a) To compare healthcare expenditure during and after a COVID-19 infection or hospitalisation; (2b) To investigate long-term health complications or premature mortality after a COVID-19 infection or hospitalisation; and (2c) To validate the administrative COVID-19 reimbursement nomenclature. The analysis plan includes the calculation of absolute and relative risks using survival analysis methods.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study involves human participants and was approved by Ghent University hospital ethics committee: reference B.U.N. 1432020000371 and the Belgian Information Security Committee: reference Beraadslaging nr. 22/014 van 11 January 2022, available via https://www.ehealth.fgov.be/ehealthplatform/file/view/AX54CWc4Fbc33iE1rY5a?filename=22-014-n034-HELICON-project.pdf. Dissemination activities include peer-reviewed publications, a webinar series and a project website.The pseudonymised data are derived from administrative and health sources. Acquiring informed consent would require extra information on the subjects. The research team is prohibited from gaining additional knowledge on the study subjects by the Belgian Information Security Committee's interpretation of the Belgian privacy framework.

Analysis of fatality impact and seroprevalence surveys in a community sustaining a SARS-CoV-2 superspreading event

There is an ongoing debate on the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) and the impact of COVID-19 on overall population mortality. Here, we addressed these issues in a community in Germany with a major superspreader event analyzing deaths over time and auditing death certificates in the community.18 deaths that occurred within the first six months of the pandemic had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. Six out of 18 deaths had non-COVID-19 related causes of death (COD). Individuals with COVID-19 COD typically died of respiratory failure (75%) and tended to have fewer reported comorbidities (p = 0.029). Duration between first confirmed infection and death was negatively associated with COVID-19 being COD (p = 0.04). Repeated seroprevalence essays in a cross-sectional epidemiological study showed modest increases in seroprevalence over time, and substantial seroreversion (30%). IFR estimates accordingly varied depending on COVID-19 death attribution. Careful ascertainment of COVID-19 deaths is important in understanding the impact of the pandemic.

The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach

Decisions on public health measures to contain a pandemic are often based on parameters such as expected disease burden and additional mortality due to the pandemic. Both pandemics and non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight pandemics, however, produce economic, social, and medical costs. The costs are, for example, caused by changes in access to healthcare, social distancing, and restrictions on economic activity. These factors indirectly influence health outcomes in the short- and long-term perspective. In a narrative review based on targeted literature searches, we develop a comprehensive perspective on the concepts available as well as the challenges of estimating the overall disease burden and the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions from both epidemiological and economic perspectives, particularly during the early part of a pandemic. We review the literature and discuss relevant components that need to be included when estimating the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review presents data sources and different forms of death counts, and discusses empirical findings on direct and indirect effects of the pandemic and interventions on disease burden as well as the distribution of health risks.

A linear mixed model to estimate COVID-19-induced excess mortality

The Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has increased mortality in countries worldwide. To evaluate the impact of the pandemic on mortality, the use of excess mortality rather than reported COVID-19 deaths has been suggested. Excess mortality, however, requires estimation of mortality under nonpandemic conditions. Although many methods exist to forecast mortality, they are either complex to apply, require many sources of information, ignore serial correlation, and/or are influenced by historical excess mortality. We propose a linear mixed model that is easy to apply, requires only historical mortality data, allows for serial correlation, and down-weighs the influence of historical excess mortality. Appropriateness of the linear mixed model is evaluated with fit statistics and forecasting accuracy measures for Belgium and the Netherlands. Unlike the commonly used 5-year weekly average, the linear mixed model is forecasting the year-specific mortality, and as a result improves the estimation of excess mortality for Belgium and the Netherlands.

Clinical and epidemiological aspects of severe acute respiratory infection: before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Widespread respiratory infections with high morbidity rates caused by respiratory viruses represent a significant global public health problem. Our objective was to describe cases and deaths from severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Brazil over the past 8 y as well as changes in the distribution and risk of illness and death from SARI before and in the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (FYP).

METHODS

We performed a descriptive epidemiological study of hospitalized SARI cases and deaths between 2013 and 2020 in Brazil, separated into pre-pandemic (2013 to 2019) and FYP (2020). We estimate the increase in SARI cases and deaths in the FYP as well as the mortality and infection risks attributable to the FYP (MRAP and IRAP, respectively).

RESULTS

In 2020, an excess of 425 054 cases and 109 682 deaths was observed, with a significant increase in the risk of falling ill and dying from SARI, with an IRAP of 200.06 and an MRAP of 51.68 cases per 100 000 inhabitants. The increase in SARI cases and deaths was particularly prominent among patients with COVID-19, the elderly, males, those self-identifying as mixed race and patients with heart disease and diabetes. We conclude that an important increase in morbidity and mortality due to SARI was observed in the FYP. More vulnerable groups and those living in the Southeast, North and Center-West regions of the country suffered the most.

Deaths from post-COVID conditions in Brazil

This paper aims to assess the magnitude and profile of deaths from post-COVID conditions in Brazil. Descriptive study based on preliminary data from the 2021 Mortality Information System. Records with ICD code B94.8 as the Basic Cause and with code U09 in some lines of part I or II of the declaration were considered for analysis. The distribution of deaths by geographic region, semester of occurrence, sex, age group, ethnicity/skin color, schooling, and place of occurrence was evaluated. We identified 2,948 deaths from conditions subsequent to COVID-19 were recorded, ranging from 0.5 deaths per 1,000 records in the Northeast Region to 3.6/1,000 in the Midwest Region. More than half occurred among males (58.0%), those aged 60 years or older (66.9%), and whites (51.8%). Conclusion: Deaths from post-COVID conditions had distinct sociodemographic characteristics between regions.

Deaths from post-COVID conditions in Brazil

Abstract This paper aims to assess the magnitude and profile of deaths from post-COVID conditions in Brazil. Descriptive study based on preliminary data from the 2021 Mortality Information System. Records with ICD code B94.8 as the Basic Cause and with code U09 in some lines of part I or II of the declaration were considered for analysis. The distribution of deaths by geographic region, semester of occurrence, sex, age group, ethnicity/skin color, schooling, and place of occurrence was evaluated. We identified 2,948 deaths from conditions subsequent to COVID-19 were recorded, ranging from 0.5 deaths per 1,000 records in the Northeast Region to 3.6/1,000 in the Midwest Region. More than half occurred among males (58.0%), those aged 60 years or older (66.9%), and whites (51.8%). Conclusion: Deaths from post-COVID conditions had distinct sociodemographic characteristics between regions.

Impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID inpatient care in southern Spain

We assessed the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID hospital admissions, non-COVID mortality, factors associated with non-COVID mortality, and changes in the profile of non-COVID patients admitted to hospital. We used the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set with diagnosis grouped according to the Diagnostic Related Groups. A total of 10,594 patients (3% COVID-19; 97% non-COVID) hospitalised during the first wave in 2020 (27-February/07-June) were compared with those hospitalised within the same dates of 2017-2019 (average annual admissions: 14,037). We found a decrease in non-COVID medical (22%) and surgical (33%) hospitalisations and a 25.7% increase in hospital mortality among non-COVID patients during the first pandemic wave compared to pre-pandemic years. During the officially declared sub-period of excess mortality in the area (17-March/20-April, in-hospital non-COVID mortality was even higher (58.7% higher than the pre-pandemic years). Non-COVID patients hospitalised during the first pandemic wave (compared to pre-pandemic years) were older, more frequently men, with longer hospital stay and increased disease severity. Hospitalisation during the first pandemic wave in 2020, compared to hospitalisation during the pre-pandemic years, was an independent risk factor for non-COVID mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.07-1.57, p = 0.008), reflecting the negative impact of the pandemic on hospitalised patients.

[Treatment of cicatricial tracheal stenosis and tracheoesophageal fistula in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia]

OBJECTIVE

To describe treatment of cicatricial tracheal stenosis and tracheoesophageal fistula in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

There were 91 patients with cicatricial tracheal stenosis for the period from August 2020 to April 2022 (21 months). Of these, 32 (35.2%) patients had cicatricial tracheal stenosis, tracheoesophageal fistula and previous coronavirus infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome. Incidence of iatrogenic tracheal injury following ventilation for viral pneumonia in the pandemic increased by 5 times compared to pneumonia of other genesis. Majority of patients had pneumonia CT grade 4 (12 patients) and grade 3 (8 patients). Other ones had pulmonary parenchyma lesion grade 2-3 or mixed viral-bacterial pneumonia. Isolated tracheoesophageal fistula without severe cicatricial stenosis of trachea or esophagus was diagnosed in 4 patients. In other 2 patients, tracheal stenosis was combined with tracheoesophageal fistula. Eight (25%) patients had tracheostomy at the first admission. This rate was almost half that of patients treated for cicatricial tracheal stenosis in pre-pandemic period.

RESULTS

Respiratory distress syndrome occurred in 1-7 months after discharge from COVID hospital. All patients underwent surgery. In 7 patients, we preferred palliative treatment with dilation and stenting until complete rehabilitation. In 5 patients, stent was removed after 6-9 months and these ones underwent surgery. There were 3 tracheal resections with anastomosis, and 2 patients underwent tracheoplasty. Resection was performed in 3 patients due to impossible stenting. Postoperative course in these patients was standard and did not differ from that in patients without viral pneumonia. In case of tracheoesophageal fistula, palliative interventions rarely allowed isolation of trachea. Four patients underwent surgery through cervical approach. There were difficult surgeries in 2 patients with tracheoesophageal fistula and cicatricial tracheal stenosis. One of them underwent separation of fistula and tracheal resection via cervical approach at primary admission. In another patient with thoracic fistula, we initially attempted to insert occluder. However, open surgery was required later due to dislocation of device.

CONCLUSION

Absolute number of patients with tracheal stenosis, tracheoesophageal fistula and previous COVID-19 has increased by several times compared to pre-pandemic period. This is due to greater number of patients requiring ventilation with risk of tracheal injury, non-compliance with preventive protocol for tracheal injury including anti-ischemic measures during mechanical ventilation. The last fact was exacerbated by involvement of allied physicians with insufficient experience of safe ventilation in the «red zone», immunodeficiency in these patients aggravating purulent-inflammatory process in tracheal wall. The number of patients with tracheostomy was 2 times less that was associated with peculiarity of mechanical ventilation in SARS-CoV-2. Indeed, tracheostomy was a poor prognostic sign and physicians tried to avoid this procedure. Incidence of tracheoesophageal fistula in these patients increased by 2 times compared to pre-pandemic period. In subacute period of COVID-associated pneumonia, palliative measures for cicatricial tracheal stenosis and tracheoesophageal fistula should be preferred. Radical treatment should be performed after 3-6 months. Absolute indication for circular tracheal resection with anastomosis is impossible tracheal stenting and ensuring safe breathing by endoscopic methods, as well as combination of cicatricial tracheal stenosis with tracheoesophageal fistula and resistant aspiration syndrome. Incidence of postoperative complications in patients with cicatricial tracheal stenosis and previous mechanical ventilation for COVID-19 pneumonia and patients in pre-pandemic period is similar.

Genome Structure, Life Cycle, and Taxonomy of Coronaviruses and the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Coronaviruses have a broad host range and exhibit high zoonotic potential. In this chapter, we describe their genomic organization in terms of encoded proteins and provide an introduction to the peculiar discontinuous transcription mechanism. Further, we present evolutionary conserved genomic RNA secondary structure features, which are involved in the complex replication mechanism. With a focus on computational methods, we review the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 starting with the 2019 strains. In that context, we also discuss the debated hypothesis of whether SARS-CoV-2 was created in a laboratory. We focus on the molecular evolution and the epidemiological dynamics of this recently emerged pathogen and we explain how variants of concern are detected and characterised. COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, can spread through different transmission routes and also depends on a number of risk factors. We describe how current computational models of viral epidemiology, or more specifically, phylodynamics, have facilitated and will continue to enable a better understanding of the epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Association of short poor work ability measure with increased mortality risk: a prospective multicohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether a single-item measure of self-rated work ability predicts all-cause mortality in three large population-based samples collected in 1978-1980, 2000 and 2017.

SETTING

A representative sample of the population of Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

The study population comprised 17 178 participants aged 18 to 65 from the population-based Mini-Finland, Health 2000 and FinHealth 2017 cohort studies, pooled together. In all cohorts, self-rated work ability was assessed at baseline (1978-80, 2000-2001 and 2017) using three response alternatives: completely fit (good work ability), partially disabled (limited work ability) and completely disabled (poor work ability) for work.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality from national registers. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for socioeconomic characteristics, lifestyle factors, self-rated health and mental health problems.

RESULTS

Of the participants, 2219 (13%) were classified as having limited and 991 (5.8%) poor work ability and 246 individuals died during the 4 year follow-up. The age- and sex-adjusted HR for mortality risk was 7.20 (95% CI 5.15 to 10.08) for participants with poor vs good work ability and 3.22 (95% CI 2.30 to 4.43) for participants with limited vs good work ability. The excess risk associated with poor work ability was seen in both genders, all age groups, across different educational levels, self-rated health levels and in those with and without mental health problems. The associations were robust to further adjustment for education, health behaviours, self-rated health and mental health problems. In the multivariable analyses, the HR for mortality among those with poor vs good work ability was 5.75 (95% CI 3.59 to 9.20).

CONCLUSIONS

One-item poor self-rated work ability -measure is a strong predictor of increased risk of all-cause mortality and may be a useful survey-measure in predicting severe health outcomes in community-based surveys.

Assessing COVID-19-Related Excess Mortality Using Multiple Approaches-Italy, 2020-2021

INTRODUCTION

Excess mortality (EM) is a valid indicator of COVID-19's impact on public health. Several studies regarding the estimation of EM have been conducted in Italy, and some of them have shown conflicting values. We focused on three estimation models and compared their results with respect to the same target population, which allowed us to highlight their strengths and limitations.

METHODS

We selected three estimation models: model 1 (Maruotti et al.) is a Negative-Binomial GLMM with seasonal patterns; model 2 (Dorrucci et al.) is a Negative Binomial GLM epidemiological approach; and model 3 (Scortichini et al.) is a quasi-Poisson GLM time-series approach with temperature distributions. We extended the time windows of the original models until December 2021, computing various EM estimates to allow for comparisons.

RESULTS

We compared the results with our benchmark, the ISS-ISTAT official estimates. Model 1 was the most consistent, model 2 was almost identical, and model 3 differed from the two. Model 1 was the most stable towards changes in the baseline years, while model 2 had a lower cross-validation RMSE.

DISCUSSION

Presently, an unambiguous explanation of EM in Italy is not possible. We provide a range that we consider sound, given the high variability associated with the use of different models. However, all three models accurately represented the spatiotemporal trends of the pandemic waves in Italy.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess mortality outcomes associated with pandemic effects study (COPES): A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and aim

With the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continuing to impact healthcare systems around the world, healthcare providers are attempting to balance resources devoted to COVID-19 patients while minimizing excess mortality overall (both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients). To this end, we conducted a systematic review (SR) to describe the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause excess mortality (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) during the pandemic timeframe compared to non-pandemic times.

Methods

We searched EMBASE, Cochrane Database of SRs, MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CENTRAL), from inception (1948) to December 31, 2020. We used a two-stage review process to screen/extract data. We assessed risk of bias using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). We used Critical Appraisal and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology.

Results

Of 11,581 citations, 194 studies met eligibility. Of these studies, 31 had mortality comparisons (n = 433,196,345 participants). Compared to pre-pandemic times, during the COVID-19 pandemic, our meta-analysis demonstrated that COVID-19 mortality had an increased risk difference (RD) of 0.06% (95% CI: 0.06-0.06% p < 0.00001). All-cause mortality also increased [relative risk (RR): 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38-1.70, p < 0.00001] alongside non-COVID-19 mortality (RR: 1.18, 1.07-1.30, p < 0.00001). There was "very low" certainty of evidence through GRADE assessment for all outcomes studied, demonstrating the evidence as uncertain.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic may have caused significant increases in all-cause excess mortality, greater than those accounted for by increases due to COVID-19 mortality alone, although the evidence is uncertain.

Systematic review registration

[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/#recordDetails], identifier [CRD42020201256].

Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest.

METHODS

We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications.

RESULTS

We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown.

CONCLUSIONS

We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period.

Real-time mortality statistics during the COVID-19 pandemic: A proposal based on Spanish data, January-March, 2021

Objectives

During the COVID-19 pandemic, surveillance systems worldwide underestimated mortality in real time due to longer death reporting lags. In Spain, the mortality monitor "MoMo" published downward biased excess mortality estimates daily. I study the correction of such bias using polynomial regressions in data from January to March 2021 for Spain and the Comunitat Valenciana, the region with the highest excess mortality.

Methods

This adjustment for real-time statistics consisted of (1) estimating forthcoming revisions with polynomial regressions of past revisions, and (2) multiplying the daily-published excess mortality by these estimated revisions. The accuracy of the corrected estimates compared to the original was measured by contrasting their mean absolute errors (MAE) and root mean square errors (RMSE).

Results

Applying quadratic and cubic regressions improved the first communication of cumulative mortality in Spain by 2-3%, on average, and the flow in registered deaths by 20%. However, for the Comunitat Valenciana, those corrections improved the first publications of the cumulative mortality by 36-45%, on average; their second publication, by 23-30%; and the third, by 15-21%. The flow of deaths registered each day improved by 62-63% on their first publication, by 19-36% on the second, and by 12-17% on the third.

Conclusion

It is recommended that MoMo's estimates for excess mortality be corrected from the effect of death reporting lags by using polynomial regressions. This holds for the flows in each date and their cumulative sum, as well as national and regional data. These adjustments can be applied by surveillance systems in other countries.

Excess all-cause mortality in the USA and Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 and 2021

Both the USA and Europe experienced substantial excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods used to estimate excess mortality vary, making comparisons difficult. This retrospective observational study included data on deaths from all causes occurring in the USA and 25 European countries or subnational areas participating in the network for European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO). We applied the EuroMOMO algorithm to estimate excess all-cause mortality in the USA and Europe during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2021, and compared excess mortality by age group and time periods reflecting three primary waves. During 2020-2021, the USA experienced 154.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 154.2-154.9) cumulative age-standardized excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person years, compared with 110.4 (95% UI: 109.9-111.0) for the European countries. Excess all-cause mortality in the USA was higher than in Europe for nearly all age groups, with an additional 44.1 excess deaths per 100,000 person years overall from 2020-2021. If the USA had experienced an excess mortality rate similar to Europe, there would have been approximately 391 thousand (36%) fewer excess deaths in the USA.

Predictors of Mortality among COVID-19 Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units: A Single-Center Study in Tehran, Iran

BACKGROUND

Iran was one of the first countries to become an epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. However, there is a dearth of data on the outcomes of COVID-19 and predictors of death in intensive care units (ICUs) in Iran. We collected extensive data from patients admitted to the ICUs of the one of the tertiary referral hospitals in Tehran, Iran, to investigate the predictors of ICU mortality.

METHODS

The study population included 290 COVID-19 patients who were consecutively admitted to the ICUs of the Sina hospital from May 5, 2021, to December 6, 2021, a period that included the peak of the epidemic of the delta (δ) variant. Demographic data, history of prior chronic diseases, laboratory data (including markers of inflammation), radiologic data, and medication data were collected.

RESULTS

Of the 290 patients admitted to the ICUs, 187 (64.5%) died and 103 (35.5%) survived. One hundred forty-one (141, 48.6%) were men, and the median age (10th percentile, 90th percentile) was 60 (41, 80). Using logistic regression models, older age, history of hypertension, high levels of inflammatory markers, low oxygen saturation, substantial lung involvement in computed tomography (CT) scans, and gravity of the disease as indicated by the WHO 8-point ordinal scale were primary predictors of mortality at ICU. The use of remdesivir and imatinib was associated with a statistically non-significant reduction in mortality. The use of tocilizumab had almost no effect on mortality.

CONCLUSION

The findings are consistent with and add to the currently existing international literature. The findings may be used to predict risk of mortality from COVID-19 and provide some guidance on potential treatments.

Leading causes of excess mortality in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021: A death certificates study in a middle-income country

Background

The death toll after SARS-CoV-2 emergence includes deaths directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19. Mexico reported 325,415 excess deaths, 34.4% of them not directly related to COVID-19 in 2020. In this work, we aimed to analyse temporal changes in the distribution of the leading causes of mortality produced by COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico to understand excess mortality not directly related to the virus infection.

Methods

We did a longitudinal retrospective study of the leading causes of mortality and their variation with respect to cause-specific expected deaths in Mexico from January 2020 through December 2021 using death certificate information. We fitted a Poisson regression model to predict cause-specific mortality during the pandemic period, based on the 2015–2019 registered mortality. We estimated excess deaths as a weekly difference between expected and observed deaths and added up for the entire period. We expressed all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality as a percentage change with respect to predicted deaths by our model.

Findings

COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in 2020–2021 (439,582 deaths). All-cause total excess mortality was 600,590 deaths (38⋅2% [95% CI: 36·0 to 40·4] over expected). The largest increases in cause-specific mortality, occurred in diabetes (36·8% over expected), respiratory infections (33·3%), ischaemic heart diseases (32·5%) and hypertensive diseases (25·0%). The cause-groups that experienced significant decreases with respect to the expected pre-pandemic mortality were infectious and parasitic diseases (-20·8%), skin diseases (-17·5%), non-traffic related accidents (-16·7%) and malignant neoplasm (-5·3%).

Interpretation

Mortality from COVID-19 became the first cause of death in 2020–2021, the increase in other causes of death may be explained by changes in the health service utilization patterns caused by hospital conversion or fear of the population using them. Cause-misclassification cannot be ruled out.

Funding

This study was funded by Conacyt.

Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular Diseases During the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Background: Although reductions in hospitalizations for myocardial infarction and heart failure have been reported during the period of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, it is unclear how the overall number of hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease (CVD) treatment changed in the early stages of the pandemic.

Methods and Results: We analyzed the records of 574 certified hospitals affiliated with the Japanese Circulation Society and retrieved data from April 2015 to March 2020. Records were obtained from the nationwide Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases–Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate the number of hospitalizations for CVD treatment. Between January and March 2020, when the number of COVID-19 cases was relatively low in Japan, the actual/estimated number of hospitalizations for acute CVD was 18,233/21,634 (84.3%), whereas the actual/estimated number of scheduled hospitalizations was 16,921/19,066 (88.7%). The number of hospitalizations for acute heart failure and scheduled hospitalizations for valvular disease and aortic aneurysm were 81.1%, 84.6%, and 83.8% of the estimated values, respectively. A subanalysis that considered only facilities without hospitalization restrictions did not alter the results for these diseases.

Conclusions: The spread of COVID-19 was associated with a decreased number of hospitalizations for CVD in Japan, even in the early stages of the pandemic.

COVID-19: Pathophysiology, transmission, and drug development for therapeutic treatment and vaccination strategies

COVID-19, a dreaded and highly contagious pandemic, is flagrantly known for its rapid prevalence across the world. Till date, none of the treatments are distinctly accessible for this life-threatening disease. Under the prevailing conditions of medical emergency, one creative strategy for the identification of novel and potential antiviral agents gaining momentum in research institutions and progressively being leveraged by pharmaceutical companies is target-based drug repositioning/repurposing. A continuous monitoring and recording of results offer an anticipation that this strategy may help to reveal new medications for viral infections. This review recapitulates the neoteric illation of COVID-19, its genomic dispensation, molecular evolution via phylogenetic assessment, drug targets, the most frequently worldwide used repurposed drugs and their therapeutic applications, and a recent update on vaccine management strategies. The available data from solidarity trials exposed that the treatment with several known drugs, viz. lopinavir-ritonavir, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, etc had displayed various antagonistic effects along with no impactful result in diminution of mortality rate. The drugs like remdesivir, favipiravir, and ribavirin proved to be quite safer therapeutic options for treatment against COVID-19. Similarly, dexamethasone, convalescent plasma therapy and oral administration of 2DG are expected to reduce the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients.

Transient production of receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 in Nicotiana benthamiana plants induces specific antibodies in immunized mice

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has currently affected millions of people around the world. To combat the rapid spread of COVID-19 there is an urgent need to implement technological platforms for the production of vaccines, drugs and diagnostic systems by the scientific community and pharmaceutical companies. The SARS-CoV-2 virus enters the cells by the interaction between the receptor-binding domain (RBD) present in the viral surface spike protein and its human receptor ACE2. The RBD protein is therefore considered as the target for potential subunit-based vaccines.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluate the use of Nicotiana benthamiana plants as the host to transiently-producing recombinant RBD (RBDr) protein. The identity of the plant-produced RBDr was confirmed by immune assays and mass spectrometry. Immunogenicity was confirmed through the specific antibodies generated in all of the immunized mice compared to the PBS treated group.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusions, the immunogenicity of the RBDr produced in N. benthamiana was confirmed. These findings support the use of plants as an antigen expression system for the rapid development of vaccine candidates.

Non-COVID outcomes associated with the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic effects study (COPES): A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

As the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues, healthcare providers struggle to manage both COVID-19 and non-COVID patients while still providing high-quality care. We conducted a systematic review/meta-analysis to describe the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with non-COVID illness and on healthcare systems compared to non-pandemic epochs.

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE/EMBASE/Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews/CENTRAL/CINAHL (inception to December 31, 2020). All study types with COVID-pandemic time period (after December 31, 2019) with comparative non-pandemic time periods (prior to December 31, 2019). Data regarding study characteristics/case-mix/interventions/comparators/ outcomes (primary: mortality; secondary: morbidity/hospitalizations/disruptions-to-care. Paired reviewers conducted screening and abstraction, with conflicts resolved by discussion. Effect sizes for specific therapies were pooled using random-effects models. Risk of bias was assessed by Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, with evidence rating using GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

Of 11,581 citations, 167 studies met eligibility. Our meta-analysis showed an increased mortality of 16% during the COVID pandemic for non-COVID illness compared with 11% mortality during the pre-pandemic period (RR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.28-1.50; absolute risk difference: 5% [95% CI: 4-6%], p<0.00001, very low certainty evidence). Twenty-eight studies (17%) reported significant changes in morbidity (where 93% reported increases), while 30 studies (18%) reported no significant change (very low certainty). Thirty-nine studies (23%) reported significant changes in hospitalizations (97% reporting decreases), while 111 studies (66%) reported no significant change (very low certainty). Sixty-two studies (37%) reported significant disruptions in standards-to-care (73% reporting increases), while 62 studies (37%) reported no significant change (very low certainty).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant increase in mortality during the COVID pandemic compared to pre-pandemic times for non-COVID illnesses. When significant changes were reported, there was increased morbidity, decreased hospitalizations and increased disruptions in standards-of-care.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020201256 (Sept 2, 2020).

Excess mortality in Israel associated with COVID-19 in 2020-2021 by age group and with estimates based on daily mortality patterns in 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

We aimed to build a basic daily mortality curve in Israel based on 20-year data accounting for long-term and annual trends, influenza-like illness (ILI) and climate factors among others, and to use the basic curve to estimate excess mortality during 65 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 stratified by age groups.

METHODS

Using daily mortality counts for the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019, weekly ILI counts, daily climate and yearly population sizes, we fitted a quasi-Poisson model that included other temporal covariates (a smooth yearly trend, season, day of week) to define a basic mortality curve. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between the observed and expected deaths on a weekly and periodic level. Analyses were stratified by age group.

RESULTS

Between 23 March 2020 and 28 March 2021, a total of 51 361 deaths were reported in Israel, which was 12% higher than the expected number for the same period (expected 45 756 deaths; 95% prediction interval, 45 325-46 188; excess deaths, 5605). In the same period, the number of COVID-19 deaths was 6135 (12% of all observed deaths), 9.5% larger than the estimated excess mortality. Stratification by age group yielded a heterogeneous age-dependent pattern. Whereas in ages 90+ years (11% excess), 100% of excess mortality was attributed to COVID-19, in ages 70-79 years there was a greater excess (21%) with only 82% attributed to COVID-19. In ages 60-69 and 20-59 years, excess mortality was 14% and 10%, respectively, and the number of COVID-19 deaths was higher than the excess mortality. In ages 0-19 years, we found 19% fewer deaths than expected.

CONCLUSION

The findings of an age-dependent pattern of excess mortality may be related to indirect pathways in mortality risk, specifically in ages <80 years, and to the implementation of the lockdown policies, specifically in ages 0-19 years with lower deaths than expected.

Biological Properties of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Epidemiological Impact and Clinical Consequences

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a virus that belongs to the coronavirus family and is the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As of May 2022, it had caused more than 500 million infections and more than 6 million deaths worldwide. Several vaccines have been produced and tested over the last two years. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, on the other hand, has mutated over time, resulting in genetic variation in the population of circulating variants during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also shown immune-evading characteristics, suggesting that vaccinations against these variants could be potentially ineffective. The purpose of this review article is to investigate the key variants of concern (VOCs) and mutations of the virus driving the current pandemic, as well as to explore the transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in relation to epidemiological factors and to compare the virus's transmission rate to that of prior coronaviruses. We examined and provided key information on SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in this study, including their transmissibility, infectivity rate, disease severity, affinity for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, viral load, reproduction number, vaccination effectiveness, and vaccine breakthrough.

Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country-specific, resulting in cross-country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality.

Safe provision of systemic anti-cancer treatment for urological cancer patients during COVID-19: a tertiary centre experience in the first wave of COVID-19

Background

Safe provision of systemic anti-cancer treatment (SACT) during the COVID-19 pandemic remains an ongoing concern amongst clinicians.

Methods

Retrospective analysis on uro-oncology patients who continued or started SACT between 1st March and 31st May 2020 during the pandemic (with 2019 as a comparator).

Results

441 patients received SACT in 2020 (292 prostate, 101 renal, 38 urothelial, 10 testicular) compared to 518 patients in 2019 (340 prostate, 121 renal, 42 urothelial, 15 testicular). In 2020, there were 75.00% fewer patients with stage 3 cancers receiving SACT (p < 0.0001) and 94.44% fewer patients receiving radical treatment (p = 0.00194). The number of patients started on a new line of SACT was similar between both years (118 in 2019 vs 102 in 2020; p = 0.898) but with 53.45% fewer patients started on chemotherapy in 2020 (p < 0.001). Overall, 5 patients tested positive for COVID-19 (one asymptomatic, one mild, two moderate, one severe resulting in death). Compared to 2019, 30-day mortality was similar (1.69% in 2019 vs 0.98% in 2020; p = 0.649) whereas 6-month mortality was lower (9.32% in 2019 vs 1.96% in 2020; p = 0.0209) in 2020.

Conclusion

This study suggests that delivery of SACT to uro-oncology patients during COVID-19 pandemic may be safe in high-incidence areas with appropriate risk-reduction strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12894-022-01023-6.

Underestimation in Reporting Excess COVID-19 Death Data in Poland during the First Three Pandemic Waves

The issue whether official Polish COVID-19 death statistics correctly reflect the actual number of deaths is a contentious issue in public discourse and an important policy-wise question in Poland although it has not been the subject of thorough research so far. There had been clearly elevated excess mortality—5100 (death rate of 2.3 per 10,000) during the first wave, 77,500 (21.0 per 10,000) during the second one, and 48,900 (13.5 per 10,000) in the third. This study finds that during the second and the third pandemic wave, our data on excess mortality will match very well the somewhat belatedly officially reported COVID-19 deaths if we assume that only 60% of cases were officially detected. Based on principal component analysis of death timing, except for the age bracket below 40, where COVID-19 deaths calculated on the basis of our model explain 55% of excess mortality, for the remaining age groups, combined COVID-19 deaths explain 95% of excess mortality. Based on the share of excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 during the second wave, this infection in Poland caused the death of 73,300 people and not of 37,600 as officially reported. The third wave caused 46,200 deaths instead of the reported 34,700. The first wave was, indeed, as officially reported, very mild, and the number of excess deaths was too low to be used to calculate COVID-19 deaths directly. However, assuming that the detection rate remained comparable to the average in subsequent waves, we can set the number of deaths at 3500 instead of the reported 2100.

Back to basics: measuring the impact of interventions to limit the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

Background

Following the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe at the start of 2020, most countries had implemented various measures in an attempt to control the spread of the virus. This study analyses the main non-pharmaceutical interventions and their impact on the rate by which cumulative cases and deaths were growing in Europe during the first wave of this pandemic.

Methods

The interventions analysed are the school closures, restrictions on travel, cancellation of events, restrictions on gatherings, partial and full lockdowns. Data was collected on the implementation date of these interventions, and the number of daily cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic for every country and territory geographically located in Europe. The study uses growth rates to calculate the increase in cumulative cases and deaths in Europe before, during, and after these interventions were implemented.

Results

The results show that decisions to close schools, cancel events, and restrict travel were taken during the same time period, whereas the decisions for the other interventions were taken when the growth rates were similar. The most effective interventions at lowering the rate by which cumulative cases were increasing were the travel restrictions, school closures, and the partial lockdown, while most effective against cumulative deaths were the partial lockdown, travel restrictions, and full lockdown.

Conclusion

All the interventions reduced the rate by which cumulative cases and deaths were increasing with the partial lockdowns being the most effective from the other interventions, during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe.