Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems?

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Effect of reclaimed water and dehydrated sludge on the morpho-physiology and yield of sorghum

The effect on the morpho-physiological parameters and yield of sorghum cultivated in a greenhouse with reclaimed water (RW) and (dehydrated sludge (DS) obtained in a sewage treatment plant, was evaluated. Six treatments (T), with five repetitions each, were carried out in entirely randomized blocks. Water (W) was used in T1 (W) (control), T2 (W + NPK), and T3 (W + DS); RW was used in T4 (RW), T5 (RW + P), and T6 (RW + DS). The results showed that irrigation with only RW (T4), or W + DS (T3) was very suitable for the cultivation since an adequate nutritional supply was provided. The positive effects on the morpho-physiological parameters, plant height, stem diameter and stem length (in cm), were: T3 - 148.8, 1.50, and 103, respectively; T4 - 154, 1.70, and 107, respectively; and on the grain production in weight of 1000 seeds (g), and productivity in grains per plant: T3 - 6.97 and 1453, respectively; T4 - 6.81 and 1636, respectively. Both treatments showed for most of the parameters, no significant differences compared with those of T2 or T5 with supplementary fertilizers. A high production of metabolites (mg g-1) like free amino acids was also shown: T3 - 6.45; T4 - 8.43 and proline: T3 - 1.86; T4 - 1.77, known to be a good indication of a plant natural defence against stress conditions, and in soluble protein: T3 - 11.20; T4 - 13.51. Therefore, since the production of such grains with RW or DS can be environmentally and economically beneficial, their use is recommended for small and medium farmers in semiarid regions.

Development of a machine vision-based weight prediction system of butterhead lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) using deep learning models for industrial plant factory

Introduction

Indoor agriculture, especially plant factories, becomes essential because of the advantages of cultivating crops yearly to address global food shortages. Plant factories have been growing in scale as commercialized. Developing an on-site system that estimates the fresh weight of crops non-destructively for decision-making on harvest time is necessary to maximize yield and profits. However, a multi-layer growing environment with on-site workers is too confined and crowded to develop a high-performance system.This research developed a machine vision-based fresh weight estimation system to monitor crops from the transplant stage to harvest with less physical labor in an on-site industrial plant factory.

Methods

A linear motion guide with a camera rail moving in both the x-axis and y-axis directions was produced and mounted on a cultivating rack with a height under 35 cm to get consistent images of crops from the top view. Raspberry Pi4 controlled its operation to capture images automatically every hour. The fresh weight was manually measured eleven times for four months to use as the ground-truth weight of the models. The attained images were preprocessed and used to develop weight prediction models based on manual and automatic feature extraction.

Results and discussion

The performance of models was compared, and the best performance among them was the automatic feature extraction-based model using convolutional neural networks (CNN; ResNet18). The CNN-based model on automatic feature extraction from images performed much better than any other manual feature extraction-based models with 0.95 of the coefficients of determination (R2) and 8.06 g of root mean square error (RMSE). However, another multiplayer perceptron model (MLP_2) was more appropriate to be adopted on-site since it showed around nine times faster inference time than CNN with a little less R2 (0.93). Through this study, field workers in a confined indoor farming environment can measure the fresh weight of crops non-destructively and easily. In addition, it would help to decide when to harvest on the spot.

Herding during different types of crises: The COVID-19 health crisis and Russia-Ukraine political crisis

We analysed herding behaviour in the recent pandemic and conflict. We employed the cross-sectional dispersion of daily stock returns to estimate herding's intensity in the Saudi stock market. We conducted all analyses for the entire sample and four sub-samples. Additionally, we investigate the existence of the asymmetry in the investors' responses; whether there are differences between up and down markets and between high-volatility and low-volatility days. We found that herding did not occur in the pre-COVID-19, occurred in the during-COVID-19, disappeared in the post-COVID-19 and did not occur during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Robustness checks confirm our finding that herding manifested in the during-COVID-19 period. Additionally, no difference exists between bearish and bullish or high-and low-volatility days, pushing aside the asymmetry in the investors' responses. This study may raise investors' awareness of their cognitive bias's influence on their decisions, improving market efficiency by increasing the rationality of investors' decisions.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the quality and quantity of Malaysia's palm oil production: A time series analysis

This study investigates the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the quality and quantity of Malaysia's palm oil production through a time series analysis. The study uses three primary factors to evaluate palm oil production: the Monthly Oil Extraction Rate (OER), the Monthly Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) Yield, and the Monthly Oil Exports. The results indicate that the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly impacted the quality and quantity of palm oil production in Malaysia. Marginal declines in both the quality and quantity of palm oil produced at the onset of the conflict indicate a slight but significant decline in palm oil production during the next four-year period.

The impact of Russo-Ukrainian war, COVID-19, and oil prices on global food security

Context

Light of recent global upheavals, including volatile oil prices, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and the COVID-19 pandemic this study delves into their profound impact on the import and export dynamics of global foodstuffs. With rising staple food prices reminiscent of the 2010-2011 global food crisis, understanding these shifts comprehensively is imperative.

Objective

Our objective is to evaluate this impact by examining six independent variables (year, month, Brent crude oil, COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict) alongside six food indicators as dependent variables. Employing Pearson's correlation, linear regression, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA), we scrutinize intricate relationships among these variables.

Results and conclusions

Our findings reveal varying degrees of association, notably highlighting a robust correlation between Brent crude oil and food indicators. Linear regression analysis suggests a positive influence of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Brent oil on food price indices, and COVID-19. Furthermore, integrating SARIMA enhances predictive accuracy, offering insights into future projections.

Significance

Finally, this research has a significant role in providing a valuable analysis into the intricate dynamics of global food pricing, informing decision-making amidst global challenges and bridging critical gaps in prior research on forecasting food price indices.

Identification and florfenicol-treatment of pseudomonas putida infection in gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) fed on tilapia-trash-feed

The present study aimed to determine the major cause of the high mortality affecting farmed gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) and controlling this disease condition. Fifteen diseased S. aurata were sampled from a private fish farm located at Eldeba Triangle, Damietta, fish showed external skin hemorrhages, and ulceration. Bacterial isolates retrieved from the diseased fish were identified biochemically as Pseudomonas putida and then confirmed by phylogenetic analysis of the 16 S rRNA gene sequence. P. putida was also isolated from three batches of tilapia-trash feed given to S. aurata. Biofilm and hemolytic assay indicated that all P. putida isolates produced biofilm, but 61.11% can haemolyse red blood cells. Based on the antibiotic susceptibility test results, P. putida was sensitive to florfenicol with minimum inhibitory concentrations ranging between 0.25 and 1.0 µg mL- 1, but all isolates were resistant to ampicillin and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim. Pathogenicity test revealed that P. putida isolate (recovered from the tilapia-trash feed) was virulent for S. aurata with LD50 equal to 4.67 × 107 colony forming unit (CFU) fish- 1. After intraperitoneal (IP) challenge, fish treated with 10 mg kg- 1 of florfenicol showed 16.7% mortality, while no mortality was recorded for the fish group that received 20 mg kg- 1. The non-treated fish group showed 46.7% mortality after bacterial challenge. HPLC analysis of serum florfenicol levels reached 1.07 and 2.52 µg mL- 1 at the 5th -day post-drug administration in the fish groups received 10 and 20 mg kg- 1, respectively. In conclusion, P. putida was responsible for the high mortality affecting cultured S. aurata, in-feed administration of florfenicol (20 mg kg- 1) effectively protected the challenged fish.

Exploring food system resilience to the global polycrisis in six Asian countries

The world is currently in the midst of a global food crisis brought about and exacerbated by a series of mutually reinforcing shocks to food systems This study investigated the resilience of food systems in six Asian countries (Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Philippines, and Sri Lanka) amidst the global 'polycrisis' caused by COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change. Trend analyses were performed for 19 indicators sourced from global databases and World Food Programme national data, representing the four domains of food system resilience: exposure to shocks; resilience capacities and agro- and food diversity, resilience responses and strategies; and long-term resilience outcomes. The analysis revealed that all six countries experienced the effects of the 'polycrisis', leading to diverse impacts on exchange rates, with Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Lao PDR facing significant currency depreciation. While most countries increased crop production and decreased food imports during the crisis, government economic support during the pandemic varied widely. Resilience outcomes, including national food price inflation and the proportion of populations facing food insecurity, witnessed upward variations. Overall, countries with higher resilience capacities at the start of the 'polycrisis' showed less severe long-term resilience outcomes. Our findings highlight the varied challenges and resilience capacities across each country, influenced by a complex interplay of economic, political, agricultural, and food affordability factors crucial for determining long-term resilience in their food systems. Recommendations for future research include focusing on resilience assessment in food systems, integrating climate change adaptation measures, and developing early intervention strategies.

Three years into the pandemic: Insights of the COVID-19 impacts on food security and nutrition in low and middle-income countries

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global crisis with unanticipated and diverse consequences. Moreover, the pandemic has considerably impacted food dynamics in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where food systems have already been challenged. These countries also have the highest share of the world's malnourished and food insecure. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the pandemic's impact on food security dimensions (availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability), with a special emphasis on LMICs. According to the results, the pandemic immediately impacted food security by limiting food production and availability. It also had an indirect impact when lockdowns and other confinement measures (e.g., social distancing, movement restrictions) made it more difficult for individuals to access food and maintain a healthy, balanced diet (cf. food utilization). Indeed, with rising unemployment and poverty, access to food has been the most critically undermined aspect of food security. At the utilization level, COVID-19 adversely influences the nutritional state of both individuals and countries, leading to an increase in all forms of malnutrition. Finally, the impact of COVID-19 on the stability dimension is dependent on the length of the pandemic as well as the effectiveness with which recovery plans are followed to ensure universal vaccine availability, among other factors. As a result, including agricultural and food systems in recovery strategies is crucial to mitigating the pandemic's long-term effects on food security.

Effects of sample pre-treatments on the analysis of liquid organic manures by visible and near-infrared spectrometry

Proper application of a fertilizer requires precise knowledge of its nutrient composition. In the case of liquid organic manures (LOM), this information is often lacking due to heterogeneous nature of these fertilizers. Published "book values" of nutrient contents present the average from a wide range of possible nutrient characteristics, but usually differ considerably from the concentration in a particular manure. Thus, chemical analyses are recommended before applying the specific LOM. Unfortunately, this is usually too costly and time-intensive in practical farming. On-farm analysis by optical spectrometry in the visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) range is considered as an efficient alternative. However, calibration of Vis-NIR spectrometry for LOM is challenging as shown in many studies. One reason is LOMs' tendency to rapidly segregate into a fuzzy continuum with liquid and solid properties. By separating LOM into well-defined liquid and solid phases and measuring them separately, calibration of Vis-NIR spectrometry might be improved. In this study, the effects of four sample pre-treatment techniques on the prediction accuracy of macronutrients (N, P, K, Mg, Ca, S), micronutrients (B, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn), dry matter and pH of LOM using visible and near infrared spectrometry were comprehensively investigated. The concentrations were referred either to wet basis or to dry matter basis. For the study, a total of 163 samples, separated in two similar LOM sets (pig, cattle, digestates), were either dried, filtered, or centrifuged and always compared to non-treated samples. The experiments demonstrate that in comparison to raw samples (Ø r2 = 0.85) neither filtering (Ø r2 = 0.76 for filtrates and Ø r2 = 0.71 for filter residues), centrifugation (Ø r2 = 0.59 for supernatants and Ø r2 = 0.79 for pellets), nor drying (Ø r2 = 0.74) revealed to be a helpful preparation step significantly improving prediction results, independent from referring to wet or dry basis concentrations.

Extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets in crises: A dependence-switching copula-CoVaR model

The linkages between the US and China, the world's two major agricultural powers, have brought great uncertainty to the global food markets. Inspired by these, this paper examines the extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets during significant crises. We use a copula-conditional value at risk (CoVaR) model with Markov-switching regimes to capture the tail dependence in their pair markets. The study covers the period from January 2006 to December 2022 and identifies two distinct dependence regimes (stable and crisis periods). Moreover, we find significant and asymmetric upside/downside extreme risk spillovers between the US and Chinese markets, which are highly volatile in crises. Additionally, the impact of international capital flows (the financial channel) on risk spillovers is particularly pronounced during the global financial crisis. During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine 2022 war, the impact of supply chain disruptions (the non-financial channel) is highlighted. Our findings provide a theoretical reference for monitoring the co-movements in agricultural futures markets and practical insights for managing investment portfolios and enhancing food market stability during crises.

Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022

Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/-22 % (95 % confidence interval).

Mathematical and computational modeling of fats and triacylglycerides

Fats and oils are found in many food products; however, their macroscopic properties are difficult to predict, especially when blending different fats or oils together. With difficulties in sourcing specific fats or oils, whether due to availability or pricing, food companies may be required to find alternative sources for these ingredients, with possible differences in ingredient performance. Mathematical and computational modeling of these ingredients can provide a quick way to predict their properties, avoiding costly trials or manufacturing problems, while, most importantly, keeping the consumers happy. This review covers a range of mathematical models for triacylglycerides (TAGs) and fats, namely, models for the prediction of melting point, solid fat content, and crystallization temperature and composition. There are a number of models that have been designed for both TAGs and fats and which have been shown to agree very well with empirical measurements, using both kinetic and thermodynamic approaches, with models for TAGs being used to, in turn, predict fat properties. The last section describes computational models to simulate the behavior of TAGs using molecular dynamics (MD). Simulation of TAGs using MD, however, is still at an early stage, although the most recent papers on this topic are bringing this area up to speed.

The spatial effects of the household's food insecurity levels in Ethiopia: by ordinal geo-additive model

Background

Food insecurity and vulnerability in Ethiopia are historical problems due to natural- and human-made disasters, which affect a wide range of areas at a higher magnitude with adverse effects on the overall health of households. In Ethiopia, the problem is wider with higher magnitude. Moreover, this geographical distribution of this challenge remains unexplored regarding the effects of cultures and shocks, despite previous case studies suggesting the effects of shocks and other factors. Hence, this study aims to assess the geographic distribution of corrected-food insecurity levels (FCSL) across zones and explore the comprehensive effects of diverse factors on each level of a household's food insecurity.

Method

This study analyzes three-term household-based panel data for years 2012, 2014, and 2016 with a total sample size of 11505 covering the all regional states of the country. An extended additive model, with empirical Bayes estimation by modeling both structured spatial effects using Markov random field or tensor product and unstructured effects using Gaussian, was adopted to assess the spatial distribution of FCSL across zones and to further explore the comprehensive effect of geographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors on the locally adjusted measure.

Result

Despite a chronological decline, a substantial portion of Ethiopian households remains food insecure (25%) and vulnerable (27.08%). The Markov random field (MRF) model is the best fit based on GVC, revealing that 90.04% of the total variation is explained by the spatial effects. Most of the northern and south-western areas and south-east and north-west areas are hot spot zones of food insecurity and vulnerability in the country. Moreover, factors such as education, urbanization, having a job, fertilizer usage in cropping, sanitation, and farming livestock and crops have a significant influence on reducing a household's probability of being at higher food insecurity levels (insecurity and vulnerability), whereas shocks occurrence and small land size ownership have worsened it.

Conclusion

Chronically food insecure zones showed a strong cluster in the northern and south-western areas of the country, even though higher levels of household food insecurity in Ethiopia have shown a declining trend over the years. Therefore, in these areas, interventions addressing spatial structure factors, particularly urbanization, education, early marriage control, and job creation, along with controlling conflict and drought effect by food aid and selected coping strategies, and performing integrated farming by conserving land and the environment of zones can help to reduce a household's probability of being at higher food insecurity levels.

Botanical Impurities in the Supply Chain: A New Allergenic Risk Exacerbated by Geopolitical Challenges

BACKGROUND

The supply chains of food raw materials have recently been heavily influenced by geopolitical events. Products that came from, or transited through, areas currently in conflict are now preferentially supplied from alternative areas. These changes may entail risks for food safety.

METHODS

We review the potential allergenicity of botanical impurities, specifically vegetable contaminants, with particular attention to the contamination of vegetable oils. We delve into the diverse types of botanical impurities, their sources, and the associated allergenic potential. Our analysis encompasses an evaluation of the regulatory framework governing botanical impurities in food labeling.

RESULTS

Unintended plant-derived contaminants may manifest in raw materials during various stages of food production, processing, or storage, posing a risk of allergic reactions for individuals with established food allergies. Issues may arise from natural occurrence, cross-contamination in the supply chain, and contamination at during production. The food and food service industries are responsible for providing and preparing foods that are safe for people with food allergies: we address the challenges inherent in risk assessment of botanical impurities.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of botanical impurities emerges as a significant risk factor for food allergies in the 2020s. We advocate for regulatory authorities to fortify labeling requirements and develop robust risk assessment tools. These measures are necessary to enhance consumer awareness regarding the potential risks posed by these contaminants.

For whom the bell tolls. A spatial analysis of the renewable energy transition determinants in Europe in light of the Russia-Ukraine war

The ongoing invasion of Russia of Ukraine and energy crises have sparked concern about economic and geopolitical stability all over the world. In Europe, the war has destabilized and endangered the energy cooperation and transition between European countries within and outside of the EU. This emergency has shown once more the importance of energy resilience policies to offset the vulnerability of energy systems and energy insecurity at the national and regional levels. Consilience has been reached on the necessity of enhancing EU energy security as an adaptation strategy. This work contributes to the existing scholarship on renewable energy transition and citizens' perception, focusing on European Union member states. Key characteristics of the renewable energy transition in the EU prior to the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine are examined. To this end, we analyze selected economic, environmental, social, policy and political variables on energy sorting from the Eurobarometer studying European citizens' perceptions. The exercise makes use of spatially-clustered regression to explore spatial heterogeneity and to elicit determinant information on specific regional groups. We learn that southern Europeans attribute less importance to energy infrastructure to facilitate the renewable energy transition and repute the EU solidity not a requirement for energy security access. Conversely, northern European citizens tend not to associate the responsibility of the EU in guiding competitiveness and policy toward green energy sources transformation. Robustness tests confirm our hypothesis. Regardless of regional differences, the EU energy and ecological transition will thrive with industrial and political cohesion. This process will pass through increased trust in institutions and dedicated energy policy action which will smooth the risks and disruptions coming from current and future shocks.

Nourishing the Mind: How Food Security Influences Mental Wellbeing

Food insecurity is a significant public health problem worldwide and critical to mental health. There is a complex relationship between food security and mental health. We carried out a narrative review study aiming to address how food insecurity impacts mental wellbeing by focusing on the mental health repercussions of food insecurity, recognizing its pivotal role in attaining Sustainable Development Goals 2 (on hunger) and 3 (on enhancing global wellbeing). A comprehensive search was conducted on PubMed and Google Scholar, incorporating Google searches for pertinent reports and policy documents. To address these questions, we emphasized and elucidated the interconnectedness between food security and mental health. The review shows that food security and mental health share a profound relationship influenced by multifaceted factors like socioeconomic conditions, access to nutritious food, and societal inequalities. We then provide recommendations for integrating food security into mental health strategies based on the insights and conclusions drawn. Strategies ranging from sustainable farming practices to urban agriculture initiatives and digital mental health services demonstrate avenues for enhancing food safety and mental wellbeing. This highlights the need for collaborative interdisciplinary efforts and systemic reforms to address these interconnected challenges.

Generational Differences in Food Choices and Consumer Behaviors in the Context of Sustainable Development

(1) Background: This study examines diverse food choices and sustainable consumption behavior across four generations of Poles: Baby Boomers, Generation X, Generation Y, and Generation Z. (2) Methods: The research employed an online survey with a quota sample of 1000 individuals, representing the Polish population in terms of gender, residence, and education (categorized into two groups). (3) Results: For Poles, the crucial factors in food selection were product quality (69.0%), price (68.6%), and information about the product's composition (41.0%). Older cohorts (Baby Boomers and Generation X) prioritized food quality, while younger generations (Generation Y and Generation Z) emphasized price. Statistically significant differences emerged between generations regarding the product's country of origin, with older generations emphasizing its importance more. The oldest group (Baby Boomers) considered ecological certification most important. As much as 85.9% of Poles checked product expiration dates while buying products, and 82.8% bought only as much as they needed. Baby Boomers most often exhibited these two behaviors and can be considered the most responsible among all generations. (4) Conclusions: This article highlights the importance of comprehensive sustainability efforts in the context of food choices. It takes into account the socio-cultural and historical circumstances of each generation that influence their consumer habits.

Social and economic dimensions of food sustainability - a background paper for the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

This review seeks to demonstrate how the social and economic dimensions of sustainability need to be considered alongside its environmental dimensions. This is particularly important when, as in the case of the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNRs), policymakers are attempting to address the twin goals of health and sustainability. For a policy that might make good sense when seen in purely environmental terms, it might not prove sustainable in social and economic terms - if it is too costly, it exacerbates existing inequalities or has detrimental effects on public health. There are some 'win-wins' in the field of health and sustainability policy. However, difficult choices between competing policy options will occur, similar to those facing ordinary consumers in their everyday lives. Being clear about the way food is framed as an issue and how different framings shape policy outcomes is a useful way forward in addressing the inevitable trade-offs and compromises between competing objectives.

The Influence of Household and Community Food Environments on Food Insecurity in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Insufficient access to enough quality food remains a public health challenge in South Africa. This study aimed to report the influence of community and the household environment, food system inventories, and food procurement on household food security. The findings alluded that food insecurity is prevalent among the rural areas in South Africa. Large household sizes and a limited access to and use of water and food storage facilities for food preservation are the major household determinants. A multi-sectoral nutrition-planning approach that accelerates the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals should be reinforced. We recommend the promotion of food production for consumption in rural communities.

Regional Agriculture and Food Systems Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of the Near East and North Africa Region

The COVID-19 pandemic affected agri-food systems worldwide. However, while the impacts differed from one country/region to another, the scholarly literature seems to focus on developed countries in the Global North. Consequently, this review scrutinizes the literature on the pandemic's impacts in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region. A search on the Web of Science in March 2023 generated 334 documents, of which 151 were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review. According to the bibliometric analysis, the most active nations are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon. In general, the coverage of studies is better in the Gulf region than in the less developed countries of North Africa and those suffering from wars (cf. Libya, Syria, and Yemen). Studies generally focus on crop production and the downstream food chain (cf. distribution and consumption). While the pandemic influenced every pillar of food security, this research concentrates on access and utilization. Meanwhile, the lion's share of the literature deals with the pandemic's socio-economic effects, especially those linked to food (in)security and health. The pandemic, which laid bare the agri-food system vulnerabilities, should be seized to foster the transition towards more resilient agri-food systems in the NENA region.

Determining nutrients, dry matter, and pH of liquid organic manures using visual and near-infrared spectrometry

In agriculture, overfertilization with liquid organic manures (LOM) is causing environmental issues including eutrophication of non-agricultural ecosystems and nitrate pollution of groundwater. To avoid such problems, a precise and demand-oriented fertilization with LOM is needed. This can only be achieved if the nutrient composition of the LOM is known. However, traditional chemical analysis is cost- and time-intensive and furthermore dependent on a representative sample. Optical spectrometry in the visible and near-infrared range could provide an efficient alternative, if a chemometric calibration assures sufficient accuracy. To improve chemometric calibration, this study investigated several spectral preprocessing and regression algorithms, and compared predictions based either on dry or wet weight concentration. In addition, the capability of low-cost spectrometers was evaluated by simulating low-resolution spectra with smaller wavelength ranges. The reflectance spectra of 391 pig manure, 155 cattle manure, and 89 biogas digestate samples were used to predict plant macronutrients (N, P, K, Mg, Ca, S), micronutrients (Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, B), dry matter (DM) and pH. The experiments demonstrate the general aptness of optical spectrometry to accurately predict DM, pH and all nutrients except boron in pig, cattle, and digestate LOM, even with simulated low-cost spectrometers. Best results show r2 between 0.80 and 0.97, ratios of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) between 2.1 and 7.8, and mean absolute errors normalized by the median (nMAE) between 5 and 36 %. The regression methods PLSR, LASSO, and least angle regression predominantly performed best. The innovative preprocessing methods named simple ratios (SR) and normalized differences (ND) proved to be very useful algorithms, especially for N and P predictions, outperforming the accuracy of classical techniques in several cases. Concentrations on dry weight basis improved predictions of K, Mn, and pH.

Land Carrying Capacity in China: A Perspective on Food Nutritional Demand

The sustainable and stable population support capacity of a country or region is of great concern. This study proposes a new method for evaluating the land carrying capacity (LCC) based on food nutrition demand and establishes a clear link between nutritional health and land. We delved into the evolving dynamics of food consumption and production structures in China between 1990 and 2020, with a focus on the spatial variations among its 31 provinces. The objectives of this study were to assess the status of LCC, identify the critical nutritional factors constraining LCC enhancement, and propose differentiated pathways for improving LCC. The results showed that: (1) There has been a steady increase in the annual consumption of animal-based products, while plant-based product consumption has declined. (2) Overall, food supply capacity has expanded, displaying an "east high, west low" trend, resulting in an imbalanced food supply level. (3) The LCC for energy and carbohydrates exhibited continuous fluctuating growth but displayed a declining trend after 2018. (4) The pressure on land carrying capacity has shifted from a state of "surplus" to "abundant surplus," signifying a safe food system level. However, significant spatial variations persist, leading to shortages and surpluses. Therefore, this work suggests that addressing these disparities requires the optimization of food consumption structures and increasing the supply of animal-based foods. This approach leverages regional advantages and reduces disparities in regional LCCs. This study provides a valuable reference for ensuring food security in response to unprecedented global changes in sustainable development.

Environmental factors of food insecurity in adolescents: A scoping review protocol

Food insecurity in recent years has increased worldwide due to many planetary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, the climate crisis, and globalization of markets. Adolescents are a particularly vulnerable group to food insecurity, as they enter adulthood with less parental supervision and greater personal autonomy, but less legislative or institutional protection. The experience of food insecurity in adolescents is influenced by several environmental factors at different levels (interpersonal, organizational, community, and societal), although they are not usually addressed in the design of interventions, prioritizing the individual behavioural factors. We present a scoping review protocol for assessing and identifying the environmental factors that could influence adolescents' food insecurity. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) and the PRISMA guidelines for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) to prepare the protocol. The search strategy will be performed in the following databases: Pubmed/Medline, EMBASE, Biblioteca Virtual de Salud, EBSCOHost, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library Plus. The reference list of the included studies will also be hand-searched. Grey literature will be search through the electronic database Grey Literature Report, and local, provincial, national, and international organisations' websites. Assessment of eligibility after screening of titles, abstract and full text, and the resolution of discrepancies will be performed by three independent reviewers. This scoping review will contribute to refine the "logic model of the problem" which constitutes the first step in the intervention mapping protocol. The "logic model of the problem" from the intervention mapping protocol will serve to classify and analyse the environmental factors. The findings from this review will be presented to relevant stakeholders that have a role in shaping the environmental factors.

Molecular, genetic, and genomic basis of seed size and yield characteristics in soybean

Soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) is a crucial oilseed cash crop grown worldwide and consumed as oil, protein, and food by humans and feed by animals. Comparatively, soybean seed yield is lower than cereal crops, such as maize, rice, and wheat, and the demand for soybean production does not keep up with the increasing consumption level. Therefore, increasing soybean yield per unit area is the most crucial breeding objective and is challenging for the scientific community. Moreover, yield and associated traits are extensively researched in cereal crops, but little is known about soybeans' genetics, genomics, and molecular regulation of yield traits. Soybean seed yield is a complex quantitative trait governed by multiple genes. Understanding the genetic and molecular processes governing closely related attributes to seed yield is crucial to increasing soybean yield. Advances in sequencing technologies have made it possible to conduct functional genomic research to understand yield traits' genetic and molecular underpinnings. Here, we provide an overview of recent progress in the genetic regulation of seed size in soybean, molecular, genetics, and genomic bases of yield, and related key seed yield traits. In addition, phytohormones, such as auxin, gibberellins, cytokinins, and abscisic acid, regulate seed size and yield. Hence, we also highlight the implications of these factors, challenges in soybean yield, and seed trait improvement. The information reviewed in this study will help expand the knowledge base and may provide the way forward for developing high-yielding soybean cultivars for future food demands.

The 2022 Russia invasion on Ukraine: The biofuel energy security challenge on Ukraine and some related countries

Europe, United States and other countries make moves to compensate for the loss of Ukraine's exports by diverting crops meant for biofuels into food production and to relax some of the biofuels mandates due to the challenges of 2022 Russian invasion on Ukraine (RIU). Ukraine as a leading exporter of cereals and oil crops in the world has suffered reduction in exports of grain products since the inception of the invasion. This work critically evaluates the immediate and remote potential effects of the RIU on Ukraine's biofuel capacity and potentials, energy strategies and policies, direct impacts of the war on Ukraine and Russia and other countries' biofuels policies were evaluated. Ukraine is found to be a very important big player on global biofuels energy security and policies. It was observed that there are more significant impacts of the war on Ukraine biofuel industry than that of Russia due to very low priority on the development of Liquid biofuels (LBs) in Russia. Recommendations based on the concepts of national energy security and independence were elucidated. Post invasion-strategies such as development of framework for management of post-war waste, ensuring strict adherence to EU biofuels sustainable directives, and implementation of Bioplus-project for Ukraine government were underpinned. This article provides useful information, guidelines and directives that would enable Ukraine government and other countries facing energy insecurity and political crises to restore energy independence and national economy.

Estimating the impact of the outbreak of wars on financial assets: Evidence from Russia-Ukraine conflict

This study analyzes the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500 index, WTI oil price, and LBMA gold price when wars took place, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We employ empirical methods to explore the stability, instantaneous shock, and short-term shock regarding the abovementioned financial assets. We first adopt the event study method to ascertain whether the cumulative abnormal returns of the selected assets are significant when wars break out. Then, we use the permutation test to examine the significance of price level changes. Results show that only the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively stable. Second, the difference-in-differences model indicates that the 3 unstable assets all suffered positive shocks in their price levels within several days after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. The parallel trend test confirms the validity of establishing the difference-in-differences model. Third, regression discontinuity is designed to measure the impact in a longer event window, suggesting the robustness of conclusions of the difference-in-differences model and revealing an upward trend before the conflict and a downward trend after the conflict of the financial assets. The study suggests that investors consider adjustments to investment strategies and governments take precautions to diminish the risk of the outbreak of wars.

Goat mammary gland metabolism: An integrated Omics analysis to unravel seasonal weight loss tolerance

Seasonal weight loss (SWL), is a major limitation to animal production. In the Canary Islands, there are two dairy goat breeds with different levels of tolerance to SWL: Majorera (tolerant) and Palmera (susceptible). Our team has studied the response of these breeds to SWL using different Omics tools. The objective of this study was to integrate such results in a data driven approach and using dedicated tools, namely the DIABLO method. The outputs of our analysis mainly separate unrestricted from restricted goats. Metabolites behave as "hub" molecules, grouping interactions with several genes and proteins. Unrestricted goats upregulated protein synthesis, along with arginine catabolism and adipogenesis pathways, which are related with higher anabolic rates and a larger proportion of secretory tissue, in agreement with their higher milk production. Contrarily, restricted goats seemingly increased the synthesis of acetyl-CoA through serine and acetate conversion into pyruvate. This may have occurred to increase fatty acid synthesis and/or to use them as an energy source in detriment to glucose, which was more available in the diet of unrestricted goats. Lastly, restricted Palmera upregulated the expression of PEBP4 and GPD1 genes compared to all other groups, which might support their use as putative biomarkers for SWL susceptibility. SIGNIFICANCE: Seasonal weight loss (SWL) is a major issue influencing animal production in the tropics and Mediterranean. By studying its impact on the mammary gland of tolerant and susceptible dairy goat breeds, using Omics, we aim at surveying the tissue for possible biomarkers that reflect these traits. In this study, data integration of three Omics (transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics) was performed using bioinformatic tools, to relate putative biomarkers and evaluate all three levels of information; in a novel approach. This information can enhance selection programs, lowering the impact of SWL on food production systems.

The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen remarkable population growth over the last century, outpacing other global regions and resulting in an over-reliance on food imports. In consequence, it has become heavily dependent on grain imports, making it vulnerable to trade disruptions (e.g., due to the Russia-Ukraine War). Here, we quantify the importance of imported grains for dietary protein and energy, and determine the level of import reductions at which countries are threatened with severe hunger. Utilizing statistics provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we employed a stepwise calculation process to quantify the allocation of both locally produced and imported grains between the food and feed sectors. These calculations also enabled us to establish a connection between feed demand and production levels. Our analysis reveals that, across the MENA region, 40% of total dietary energy (1,261 kcal/capita/day) and 63% of protein (55 g/capita/day) is derived from imported grains, and could thus be jeopardized by trade disruptions. This includes 164 kcal/capita/day of energy and 11 g/capita/day of protein imported from Russia and Ukraine. If imports from these countries ceased completely, the region would thus face a severe challenge to adequately feed its population. This study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and ensure a stable food and feed supply in the MENA region.

Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change

The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest is essential. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current global spatial distribution of the pest and the future distribution using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070. High AUC and TSS values indicated model accuracy and high performance. Response curves showed that the optimal temperature for the S. littoralis is between 10 and 28 °C. The pest is currently found in Africa and is widely distributed across the Middle East and throughout Southern Europe. MaxEnt results revealed that the insect will shift towards Northern Europe and the Americas. Further, China was seen to have a suitable climate. We also extrapolated the impact of these results on major producing countries and how this affects trade flow, which help decision makers to take the invasiveness of such destructive pest into their account.

Satellites capture socioeconomic disruptions during the 2022 full-scale war in Ukraine

Since February 2022, the full-scale war in Ukraine has been strongly affecting society and economy in Ukraine and beyond. Satellite observations are crucial tools to objectively monitor and assess the impacts of the war. We combine satellite-based tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) observations to detect and characterize changes in human activities, as both are linked to fossil fuel combustion processes. We show significantly reduced NO2 levels over the major Ukrainian cities, power plants and industrial areas: the NO2 concentrations in the second quarter of 2022 were 15-46% lower than the same quarter during the reference period 2018-2021, which is well below the typical year-to-year variability (5-15%). In the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, the NO2 tropospheric column monthly average in April 2022 was almost 60% smaller than 2019 and 2021, and about 40% smaller than 2020 (the period mostly affected by the COVID-19 restrictions). Such a decrease is consistent with the essential reduction in population and corresponding emissions from the transport and commercial/residential sectors over the major Ukrainian cities. The NO2 reductions observed in the industrial regions of eastern Ukraine reflect the decline in the Ukrainian industrial production during the war (40-50% lower than in 2021), especially from the metallurgic and chemical industry, which also led to a decrease in power demand and corresponding electricity production by thermal power plants (which was 35% lower in 2022 compared to 2021). Satellite observations of land properties and thermal anomalies indicate an anomalous distribution of fire detections along the front line, which are attributable to shelling or other intentional fires, rather than the typical homogeneously distributed fires related to crop harvesting. The results provide timely insights into the impacts of the ongoing war on the Ukrainian society and illustrate how the synergic use of satellite observations from multiple platforms can be useful in monitoring significant societal changes. Satellite-based observations can mitigate the lack of monitoring capability during war and conflicts and enable the fast assessment of sudden changes in air pollutants and other relevant parameters.

Molecular Mechanisms of Pseudomonas-Assisted Plant Nitrogen Uptake: Opportunities for Modern Agriculture

Pseudomonas spp. make up 1.6% of the bacteria in the soil and are found throughout the world. More than 140 species of this genus have been identified, some beneficial to the plant. Several species in the family Pseudomonadaceae, including Azotobacter vinelandii AvOP, Pseudomonas stutzeri A1501, Pseudomonas stutzeri DSM4166, Pseudomonas szotifigens 6HT33bT, and Pseudomonas sp. strain K1 can fix nitrogen from the air. The genes required for these reactions are organized in a nitrogen fixation island, obtained via horizontal gene transfer from Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas stutzeri, and Azotobacter vinelandii. Today, this island is conserved in Pseudomonas spp. from different geographical locations, which, in turn, have evolved to deal with different geo-climatic conditions. Here, we summarize the molecular mechanisms behind Pseudomonas-driven plant growth promotion, with particular focus on improving plant performance at limiting nitrogen (N) and improving plant N content. We describe Pseudomonas-plant interaction strategies in the soil, noting that the mechanisms of denitrification, ammonification, and secondary metabolite signaling are only marginally explored. Plant growth promotion is dependent on the abiotic conditions and differs at sufficient and deficient N. The molecular controls behind different plant responses are not fully elucidated. We suggest that superposition of transcriptome, proteome, and metabolome data and their integration with plant phenotype development through time will help fill these gaps. The aim of this review is to summarize the knowledge behind Pseudomonas-driven nitrogen fixation and to point to possible agricultural solutions. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

COVID-19 or threat of a nuclear war in Europe? A cross-sectional study of anxiety levels in adults living in Portugal

Background

Since 2019, Europe has experienced ongoing stressors with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian War, which have had social, financial, physical, and psychological impacts. Studies suggest that anxiety, fear, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and other psychological disorders are common in such situations, and there is a need for more research on the impact of the war on mental health in Portugal. The main goal of the present study was to assess the impact of the fear of COVID-19 and anxiety related to nuclear war on the general anxiety levels of adult individuals living in Portugal.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted from May to July 2022 using an online questionnaire built on the Google Forms platform. Portuguese-speaking male and female individuals aged 18 years or older, who provided informed consent and agreed to participate, were included. The outcome variable was defined using the Portuguese version of the GAD-7 scale, while the main predictors were the FCV-19S and the NWA Scale in Portuguese. Linear and logistic regression models were used to test associations between predictors and outcome variable.

Results

The study included 1,182 participants, with a mean age of 46.5 (±11.7) years, mostly women (80.6%). The global mean GAD-7 score was 5.8 (±4.5) points, and 17.9% of the participants scored above the 10-point cutoff. Higher scores were found in both the FCV-19S and the NWA scale among participants with anxiety, as measured by both a 10-point cutoff (p < 0.001), and GAD-7 scale mean scores (p < 0.001). The study showed that fear of COVID-19 [OR of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.097-1.170)] and, at a lesser extent, nuclear war anxiety [OR of 1.020 (95%CI, 1.009-1.031)] contribute to anxiety in the general population. This is also true for those with a personal history of anxiety, revealed by multiple regression.

Discussion

This study contributes to the research on COVID-19's impact on anxiety and provides the first comprehensive assessment of nuclear war anxiety in Portugal. Results highlight the need for long-term care for anxiety, as prevalence is expected to increase due to the pandemic and war, even in non-conflict areas like Portugal.

Household food insecurity levels in Ethiopia: quantile regression approach

Introduction

Numerous natural and man-made factors have afflicted Ethiopia, and millions of people have experienced food insecurity. The current cut-points of the WFP food consumption score (FCS) have limitations in measuring the food insecurity level of different feeding patterns due to the diversified culture of the society. The aim of this study is to adapt the WFP food security score cut-points corrected for the different feeding cultures of the society using effect-driven quantile clustering.

Method

The 2012, 2014, and 2016 Ethiopian socio-economic household-based panel data set with a sample size of 3,835 households and 42 variables were used. Longitudinal quantile regression with fixed individual-specific location-shift intercept of the free distribution covariance structure was adopted to identify major indicators that can cluster and level quantiles of the FCS.

Result

Household food insecurity is reduced through time across the quintiles of food security score distribution, mainly in the upper quantiles. The leveling based on effect-driven quantile clustering brings 35.5 and 49 as the FCS cut-points corrected for cultural diversity. This corrected FCS brings wider interval for food insecure households with the same interval range for vulnerable households, where the WFP FCS cut-points under estimate it by 7 score. Education level, employment, fertilizer usage, farming type, agricultural package, infrastructure-related factors, and environmental factors are found to be the significant contributing factors to food security. On the other hand, the age of the head of the household, dependency ratio, shock, and no irrigation in households make significant contributions to food insecurity. Moreover, households living in rural areas and farming crops on small lands are comparatively vulnerable and food insecure.

Conclusion

Measuring food insecurity in Ethiopia using the WFP FCS cut-off points underestimates households' food insecurity levels. Since the WFP FCS cut-points have universality and comparability limitations, there is a need for a universally accepted local threshold, corrected for local factors those resulted in different consumption patterns in the standardization of food security score. Accordingly, the quantile regression approach adjusts the WFP-FCS cut points by adjusting for local situations. Applying WFP cut-points will wrongly assign households on each level, so the proportion of households will be inflated for the security level and underestimated for the insecure level, and the influence of factors can also be wrongly recommended the food security score for the levels. The quantile clustering approach showed that cropping on a small land size would not bring about food security in Ethiopia. This favors the Ethiopian government initiative called integrated farming "ኩታ ገጠም እርሻ" which Ethiopia needs to develop and implement a system that fits and responds to this technology and infrastructure.

Bread Wheat Landraces Adaptability to Low-Input Agriculture

Bread wheat landraces were an important source of biodiversity used in agriculture before the widespread adoption of high-yielding commercial cultivars adapted to high inputs. Could future agriculture exploit these landraces in different cropping systems in organic or lower-input environments? A two-year field trial was conducted to evaluate grain yield, agronomic performance, and grain quality of bread wheat landraces under different cropping systems, including low-input/organic/conventional environments. Significant variability was found for almost all characteristics among landraces, which makes landraces valuable sources of genetic variation for breeding programs aimed at achieving high and consistent production as well as high-quality products in low-input/organic environments. Additionally, landraces play a crucial role in expanding the genetic diversity of cultivated bread wheat and mitigating biodiversity erosion, thereby enabling crops to better withstand the challenges of low-input/organic agriculture. The landrace "Xilokastro Lamias" had the highest yield among the landraces evaluated in the first growing season (2.65 t·ha^-1) and one of the highest yields (2.52 t·ha^-1) of all genotypes in the second growing season, which shows promising potential as a starting material in breeding programs targeting high and stable yields. GGE biplot analysis identified the landrace "Xilokastro Lamias", along with commercial cultivars "Yecora E" and "Panifor", as suitable candidates for direct use in low-input/organic wheat farming systems to achieve enhanced productivity. In the conventional environment (C2-IPGRB), commercial cultivars showed the highest values (3.09 to 3.41 ton·ha^-1). Of the landraces, only the X4 showed a high GY (3.10 ton·ha^-1) while the other landraces had ~33-85% lower yield. In the organic environment (O2-IPGRB), the highest productivity was found in the commercial cultivar X5 and the landrace X4. Commercial cultivars X8 and X7 showed ~68% reduction in GY in the organic environment compared to the conventional, while this reduction was half for the landraces. Finally, the reduction in grain yield between conventional and organic environments was observed to be 45% for commercial cultivars, while it was only half for landraces. This finding confirms the adaptability of landraces to organic agriculture.

Food insecurity among Asian Americans: A scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Food insecurity is prevalent in the U.S. and is associated with deleterious health, behavioral, and social consequences. Food insecurity is currently addressed largely through public and private food assistance programs (e.g., the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program, and food pantries). A body of research has explored racial and ethnic disparities and differences in food insecurity and coping strategies. However, limited literature has explored these experiences among Asian Americans and Asian origin groups in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review is to establish what is known about the experience of food insecurity and nutrition program participation in the Asian American population and among Asian origin groups and to suggest further research and policy action to better address food insecurity in this population.

METHODS

Our review is guided by the methodological framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley and refined and outlined by Levac and colleagues and the Joanna Briggs Institute. We will search key terms related to food insecurity and Asian Americans in Medline (Ovid), the Cochrane Library (Wiley), CINAHL Plus with Full Text (Ebsco), PsycINFO (Ebsco), and Scopus (Elsevier). An article will be included if it was published in the English language; is a peer reviewed research manuscript and reports primary research findings from analyses; and describes food insecurity or strategies to cope with food insecurity among individuals of Asian origins living in the U.S. An article will be excluded if it is a book, conference proceedings, or grey literature (e.g., thesis or dissertation); is a commentary, editorial, or opinion piece without primary research data; contains only research conducted outside of the U.S.; includes Asians in the sample but does not provide separate data on food insecurity or strategies to cope with food insecurity among Asians; and describes only dietary changes or patterns but not food insecurity. Two or more reviewers will participate in the study screening and selection process. We will record information from the final articles chosen to be included in the review in a data table template and will also prepare a summary narrative with key findings.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS

Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. The findings from this review will be of interest to researchers and practitioners and inform further research and policy to better address food insecurity among this population.

Predicting the Potential Impact of Emergency on Global Grain Security: A Case of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Global emergencies have a profound impact on exacerbating food insecurity, and the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as a significant driver of a global food crisis. Accurately quantifying the impact of this conflict is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. The multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation approach was used to construct a grain security composite index (GSCI). Moreover, econometric model was used to predict the potential impacts of the conflict on global grain security in 2030 under two scenarios: with and without the "Russia-Ukraine conflict". The results conclude that global food prices reached unprecedented levels as a consequence of the conflict, leading to notable fluctuations in food prices, especially with a significant surge in wheat prices. The conflict had a negative impact on global grain security, resulting in a decline in grain security from 0.538 to 0.419. Predictions indicate that the influence of the conflict on global grain security will be substantially greater compared to the scenario without the conflict in 2023-2030, ranging from 0.033 to 0.13. Furthermore, grain security will first decrease and then increase under the sustained consequences of the conflict. The achievement of the 2030 sustainable development goals will encounter significant challenges in light of these circumstances.

Rapid monitoring of cropland primary productivity and shipping activity in Ukraine

Ukraine is an important global exporter of grain, especially to several countries with vulnerable food systems. The war in Ukraine may disrupt global food supply by limiting the planting, growth, and harvest of crops, or disrupting grain supply logistics. We apply a novel statistical modelling approach to satellite images of cropland in Ukraine for fast inference and exploration of cropping patterns and their influences in challenging environments. We also present satellite-derived cargo shipping activity as an accompaniment to these outputs to better explore the outcomes. Cropland Gross Primary Productivity in 2022 was 0.25gC/m2 lower than the 2010-2021 baseline period (p < 0.001). Similarly, cumulative annual cargo shipping activity ports in the Odesa and Mariupol regions were 45% and 62% lower in 2022 than in 2021, respectively. This suggests that cropland primary productivity has suffered during the conflict, and reliance on a few key port areas introduces vulnerability to the value chain.

Trends in Biological Ammonia Production

Food production heavily depends on ammonia-containing fertilizers to improve crop yield and profitability. However, ammonia production is challenged by huge energy demands and the release of ~2% of global CO₂. To mitigate this challenge, many research efforts have been made to develop bioprocessing technologies to make biological ammonia. This review presents three different biological approaches that drive the biochemical mechanisms to convert nitrogen gas, bioresources, or waste to bio-ammonia. The use of advanced technologies-enzyme immobilization and microbial bioengineering-enhanced bio-ammonia production. This review also highlighted some challenges and research gaps that require researchers' attention for bio-ammonia to be industrially pragmatic.

Drought stress detection technique for wheat crop using machine learning

The workflow of this research is based on numerous hypotheses involving the usage of pre-processing methods, wheat canopy segmentation methods, and whether the existing models from the past research can be adapted to classify wheat crop water stress. Hence, to construct an automation model for water stress detection, it was found that pre-processing operations known as total variation with L1 data fidelity term (TV-L1) denoising with a Primal-Dual algorithm and min-max contrast stretching are most useful. For wheat canopy segmentation curve fit based K-means algorithm (Cfit-kmeans) was also validated for the most accurate segmentation using intersection over union metric. For automated water stress detection, rapid prototyping of machine learning models revealed that there is a need only to explore nine models. After extensive grid search-based hyper-parameter tuning of machine learning algorithms and 10 K fold cross validation it was found that out of nine different machine algorithms tested, the random forest algorithm has the highest global diagnostic accuracy of 91.164% and is the most suitable for constructing water stress detection models.

Ultrasound applications in drying of fruits from a sustainable development goals perspective

This review focuses on the many contributions of ultrasound technologies for fruit drying toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Along this review, several aspects attained from the application of ultrasound technologies are correlated with the SDGs. The main ultrasonic technologies applied for fruit drying, such as ultrasonic bath, probe ultrasound, air-borne ultrasound air-drying, and ultrasound-assisted contact air-drying, are presented. An in-depth discussion on ultrasound contributions, its advantages, disadvantages, and limitations are made. The effects of ultrasound on water diffusivity in several fruits are presented by correlating this effect with drying time and cost of energy. Ultrasound-assisted fruit drying, like other food processing technologies, directly impacts Zero Hunger, but ultrasound technologies contribute to much more than delivering long shelf-life food. This technology can be used to produce healthy foods and provide well-being, which will be discussed by correlating the effects of ultrasound-assisted air-drying with the concentration of nutritional compounds. Ultrasound-assisted fruit drying reduces wastewater toxicity and energy consumption and improves productivity, potentially improving workplaces and salaries. A walk through the technology is presented from Zero Hunger to No Poverty.

Perennial biomass cropping and use: Shaping the policy ecosystem in European countries

Demand for sustainably produced biomass is expected to increase with the need to provide renewable commodities, improve resource security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with COP26 commitments. Studies have demonstrated additional environmental benefits of using perennial biomass crops (PBCs), when produced appropriately, as a feedstock for the growing bioeconomy, including utilisation for bioenergy (with or without carbon capture and storage). PBCs can potentially contribute to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) (2023-27) objectives provided they are carefully integrated into farming systems and landscapes. Despite significant research and development (R&D) investment over decades in herbaceous and coppiced woody PBCs, deployment has largely stagnated due to social, economic and policy uncertainties. This paper identifies the challenges in creating policies that are acceptable to all actors. Development will need to be informed by measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions reductions and other environmental, economic and social metrics. It discusses interlinked issues that must be considered in the expansion of PBC production: (i) available land; (ii) yield potential; (iii) integration into farming systems; (iv) R&D requirements; (v) utilisation options; and (vi) market systems and the socio-economic environment. It makes policy recommendations that would enable greater PBC deployment: (1) incentivise farmers and land managers through specific policy measures, including carbon pricing, to allocate their less productive and less profitable land for uses which deliver demonstrable greenhouse gas reductions; (2) enable greenhouse gas mitigation markets to develop and offer secure contracts for commercial developers of verifiable low-carbon bioenergy and bioproducts; (3) support innovation in biomass utilisation value chains; and (4) continue long-term, strategic R&D and education for positive environmental, economic and social sustainability impacts.

Challenging the Status Quo to Shape Food Systems Transformation from a Nutritional and Food Security Perspective: Second Edition

Access to and choices of food are doubtless beyond the realms of biological and nutritional needs [...].

Global Patterns of Agricultural Investment and Food Security: Evidence from the fDi Markets Database

The number of hungry people is on the rise and more efforts are needed to improve the global food security status. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) proposes more investment in the agricultural sector to boost production and alleviate hunger. However, there are fewer papers that distinguish enterprises investment from public investment. In this case, we take advantage of detailed investment data in the fDi Markets database to explore the global patterns of agricultural investment. In particular, we identify the top destination countries based on aggregate and sub-sectoral agricultural investment data. Then we investigate the relationship between agricultural investment and food security, which is measured by per capita protein intake. Finally, we propose some suggestions from the investment motivation perspective to help food-insecure countries to attract overseas investment. We find that developed countries are the primary sources of global agricultural investment and these sources have been becoming more diverse in the past decade. It implies the trend towards a more inclusive investment environment worldwide. However, the global distribution of agricultural investment is uneven as food-insecure countries only receive 20% of the global agricultural investment. The top three destination countries, USA, China, and Russia, have a relatively high food security level. In contrast, countries suffering from food insecurity receive fewer investment projects, and most of which are on a small scale. Given the limited socio-economic development status in food-insecure countries, it is essential for all levels of society to help them and contribute to ending hunger.

A Multifaceted Evaluation Approach for Greek Native Neglected and Underutilized Forest Fruit Trees and Shrubs as Natural Sources of Antioxidants: Consolidating the Framework for Their Sustainable Agronomic Exploitation

Fruits from wild forest trees and shrubs represent a natural source of antioxidants against oxidative stress and a growing market for novel minor crops. This study presents a multifaceted approach which sets the basis for sustainable agronomic exploitation of selected Greek native germplasm of four traditional but neglected and underutilized forest fruit trees and shrubs, namely Amelanchier ovalis Medik., Cornus mas L., Rosa canina L., and Sambucus nigra L. The studied plant species are traditionally used in Greek ethnobotany but are currently neglected and underutilized in commercial terms, thus characterized as neglected and underutilized plant species (NUPs). The investigation includes new information on the evaluation of the ex situ cultivation of the Greek germplasm (three of the four focal NUPs), thus supplementing respective full datasets for their comparative evaluation based on four evaluation axes (documentation and molecular authentication of genotypes, phytochemical evaluation, asexual propagation via rooting of cuttings, and ex situ cultivation) after multi-year and multifaceted groundwork data previously acquired. Consecutively, the work includes feasibility and readiness timescale evaluation for the sustainable exploitation of each focal species based on existing literature and extant research experience. The feasibility for sustainable exploitation and readiness timescale evaluation results were very encouraging, showing high exploitation feasibility with an already achieved readiness timescale for R. canina and S. nigra, whereas C. mas and A. ovalis showed an achievable readiness in the short term. The comparative evaluation of the Greek native focal NUPs outlined the excellent potential of R. canina, S. nigra, and A. ovalis, and the high potential of C. mas. The results herein illustrate the very high fruit antioxidant potential (free radical scavenging activity) of all focal species, the diverse but effective asexual propagation capacity via cuttings at the species level, and summarize the results of a pilot cultivation trial set up in 2020 (still ongoing) outlining tree growth rates and the onset of fruit production among genotypes and species. Overall, the meta-analysis of previously published data in conjunction with new data generated herein may serve the sustainable exploitation of the studied NUPs.

Religious values and social distance as activators of norms to reduce food waste when dining out

Empirical research is required to identify psychological and psychographic factors which can activate or amplify norms of foodservice customers towards food waste reduction. By surveying 446 foodservice customers in Poland, a country with a large population of religion followers, this study examines the influence of religious values on personal norms and explores the moderating effect of social distance on injunctive norms. The results indicate that religious values do not activate personal norms directly but affect them indirectly via such mediating factors as the feeling of compassion and family upbringing. Close encounters, such as family and friends, amplify the effect of injunctive norms while distant encounters, such as fellow countrymen, do not. This suggests that measures for food waste reduction should be designed to appeal to the foodservice customers' feeling of compassion. The measures should also remind foodservice customers that their (grand)parents and friends would disprove food waste.

Novel Approach for a Controlled Delivery of Essential Oils during Long-Term Maize Storage: Clove Bud and Pennyroyal Oils Efficacy to Control Sitophilus zeamais, Reducing Grain Damage and Post-Harvest Losses

Maize grains represent a significant contribution for assuring food safety all over the globe. Sitophilus zeamais (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), also known as the maize weevil, is one of the most destructive pests in stored maize, causing qualitative and quantitative losses. To control S. zeamais populations in maize storage sites, synthetical chemical insecticides are applied. However, these are often used wastefully, have environmental implications, and can induce the development of resistant populations. In this work, the insecticidal and grain protecting efficacy of an innovative macro-capsule delivery device, loaded with essential oils from Clove bud and Pennyroyal, as well as their combined solutions, was tested against naturally S. zeamais-infested maize grains. The blend of both compounds incorporated in a controlled release device reduced losses by more than 45% over a long storage period of twenty weeks, diminishing the survivability of maize weevils by over 90%. The usage of the blend at a concentration of 370 μL⋅Lair-1 with an antioxidant showed the best results, however, by halving the concentration (185 μL⋅Lair-1), a significant control of S. zeamais populations was still achieved.

Food insecurity indicators of 14 OECD countries in a health economics aspect: A comparative analysis

Introduction

Food insecurity is a critical issue that refers to a lack of access to adequate food to support a healthy and active lifestyle. This problem has wide-reaching effects and can negatively impact health, education, and overall well-being. Addressing food insecurity requires a multifaceted approach that involves the efforts of governments, organizations, and individuals to ensure access to a balanced and nutritious diet for all.

Methods

The aim of this study is to shed light on macro-level models and evaluate food insecurity risk in international comparisons. We considered six criteria to evaluate food insecurity risk in terms of health expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and GDP growth rate among 14 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We developed a modeling approach in three stages to compare food insecurity risk and discussed the reasons for the rankings of the countries based on the model results.

Results

According to our findings, the United States has the lowest food insecurity risk, while Colombia has the highest. The results suggest that economic factors, such as GDP per capita and GDP growth rate, play a significant role in food insecurity risk. The study highlights the importance of addressing economic disparities and promoting economic growth to reduce food insecurity.

Discussion

This study provides insights into the relationship between food insecurity and economic factors, indicating that addressing economic disparities and promoting economic growth can reduce food insecurity. Future research using similar models to link economic outcomes with important health components such as nutrition and physical activity could provide a foundation for policy development.

The status of the global food waste mitigation policies: experience and inspiration for China

Food waste has become a significant challenge faced by the community with a shared future for mankind, and it has also caused a considerable impact on China's food security. Scholars across disciplines, international organizations, and especially policymakers are increasingly interested in food waste. Policies are seen as a powerful factor in reducing food waste, but current research on related policies is more scattered. This paper summarizes and analyzes the experiences of food waste policy development and implementation by systematically reviewing the studies on food waste reduction policies. The results of this paper's analysis show that current global food waste policies are focused at the national strategic level, with approaches such as legislation, food donation, waste recycling, awareness and education, and data collection. At the same time, we find that the current experience of developed countries in policy formulation and implementation is beneficial for policy formulation in developing countries. And taking China as an example, we believe that developing countries can improve food waste policies in the future by improving legislation, guiding the development of food banks, promoting social governance, and strengthening scientific research projects. These policies will all contribute strongly to global environmental friendliness. In addition, we discuss some of the factors that influence the development of food waste policies and argue that in the future, more consideration needs to be given to the effects of policy implementation and that case studies should focus more on developing countries. This will contribute to the global sustainable development process.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-03132-0.

Enhancing sustainable agri-food systems using multi-nutrient fertilizers in Kenyan smallholder farming systems

Persistent food insecurity in the global south has triggered calls for sustainable development worldwide. Moreover, more than a quarter of the world's population suffers from micronutrient deficiencies or hidden hunger. The population bulge, declining soil fertility and inadequate/inappropriate use of farm inputs in Sub-Saharan Africa place it in a precarious position. Multi-nutrient fertilizer blends have been mooted as a key innovation in closing yield gaps and boosting food and nutrition security. This study assessed the extent of multi-nutrient fertilizer blends utilization and yield response across agroecological zones and their on-farm profitability under Kenyan smallholder farmer conditions. We collected data through a detailed household survey conducted in eight counties in Kenya representative of high, medium, and low productivity zones using a sample of 1094 smallholder farmers. Multi-nutrient fertilizers increased maize yields significantly (P < 0.05), eliciting a 400% yield increase compared to the control and 108% greater maize yield than conventional fertilizers in the high potential zone. Conversely, at 3.7 t/ha conventional fertilizers elicited a significant (P < 0.05) yield response in Irish potatoes in the high potential areas. Multi-nutrient fertilizers increased on-farm profitability of crops, specifically for potato production systems where a benefit: cost ratio (BCR) of more than 2 was observed. Farmers may break even when they use multi-nutrient fertilizers on maize particularly in the low potential areas. Therefore, there is considerable potential for multi-nutrient fertilizers to increase crop productivity while being economically viable across agroecological zones and cropping systems. However, the uptake of multi-nutrient fertilizers among farmers is quite low across the country, except for small pockets where limited interventions have been carried out. This calls for sustained efforts to scale multi-nutrient fertilizers with a focus on clear messaging that stresses the need to apply appropriate rates of various nutrients including the secondary nutrients and micro-nutrients.