Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Legacies of millennial-scale climate oscillations in contemporary biodiversity in eastern North America

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Partner or perish: tree microbiomes and climate change

Understanding the complex relationships between plants, their microbiomes, and environmental changes is crucial for improving growth and survival, especially for long-lived tree species. Trees, like other plants, maintain close associations with a multitude of microorganisms on and within their tissues, forming a 'holobiont'. However, a comprehensive framework for detailed tree-microbiome dynamics, and the implications for climate adaptation, is currently lacking. This review identifies gaps in the existing literature, emphasizing the need for more research to explore the coevolution of the holobiont and the full extent of climate change impact on tree growth and survival. Advancing our knowledge of plant-microbial interactions presents opportunities to enhance tree adaptability and mitigate adverse impacts of climate changes on trees.

Ecological niche conservatism spurs diversification in response to climate change

Lengthy debate has surrounded the theoretical and empirical science of whether climatic niche evolution is related to increased or decreased rates of biological diversification. Because species can persist for thousands to millions of years, these questions cross broad scales of time and space. Thus, short-term experiments may not provide comprehensive understanding of the system, leading to the emergence of contrasting opinions: niche evolution may increase diversity by allowing species to explore and colonize new geographic areas across which they could speciate; or, niche conservatism might augment biodiversity by supporting isolation of populations that may then undergo allopatric speciation. Here, we use a simulation approach to test how biological diversification responds to different rates and modes of niche evolution. We find that niche conservatism promotes biological diversification, whereas labile niches-whether adapting to the conditions available or changing randomly-generally led to slower diversification rates. These novel results provide a framework for understanding how Earth-life interactions produced such a diverse biota.

Extinction drives recent thermophilization but does not trigger homogenization in forest understorey

The ongoing climate change is triggering plant community thermophilization. This selection process ought to shift community composition towards species adapted to warmer climates but may also lead to biotic homogenization. The link between thermophilization and homogenization and the community dynamics that drive them (colonization and extinction) remain unknown but is critical for understanding community responses under rapid environmental change. We used 14,167 pairs of plots to study shifts in plant community during 10 years of rising temperature in 80 forest ecoregions of France. We computed community mean thermal optimum (thermophilization) and Δβ-diversity (homogenization) for each ecoregion and partitioned these changes into extinction and colonization dynamics of cold- and warm-adapted species. Forest understorey communities thermophilized on average by 0.12 °C per decade and up to 0.20 °C per decade in warm ecoregions. This rate was entirely driven by extinction dynamics. Extinction of cold-adapted species was a driver of homogenization but it was compensated for by the colonization of rare species and the extinction of common species, resulting in the absence of an apparent homogenization trend. Here we show a dieback of present cold-adapted species rather than an adaptation of communities via the arrival of warm-adapted species, with a mutually cancelling effect on β-diversity. These results suggest that a future loss of biodiversity and delayed biotic homogenization should be considered.

'How to adapt forests?'-Exploring the role of leaf trait diversity for long-term forest biomass under new climate normals

Forests, critical components of global ecosystems, face unprecedented challenges due to climate change. This study investigates the influence of functional diversity-as a component of biodiversity-to enhance long-term biomass of European forests in the context of changing climatic conditions. Using the next-generation flexible trait-based vegetation model, LPJmL-FIT, we explored the impact of functional diversity on long-term forest biomass under three different climate change scenarios (video abstract: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/2023/video_abstract_billing_et_al_LPJmLFIT.mp4). Four model set-ups were tested with varying degrees of functional diversity and best-suited functional traits. Our results show that functional diversity positively influences long-term forest biomass, particularly when climate warming is low (RCP2.6). Under these conditions, high-diversity simulations led to an approximately 18.2% increase in biomass compared to low-diversity experiments. However, as climate change intensity increased, the benefits of functional diversity diminished (RCP8.5). A Bayesian multilevel analysis revealed that both full leaf trait diversity and diversity of plant functional types contributed significantly to biomass enhancement under low warming scenarios in our model simulations. Under strong climate change, the presence of a mixture of different functional groups (e.g. summergreen and evergreen broad-leaved trees) was found more beneficial than the diversity of leaf traits within a functional group (e.g. broad-leaved summergreen trees). Ultimately, this research challenges the notion that planting only the most productive and climate-suited trees guarantees the highest future biomass and carbon sequestration. We underscore the importance of high functional diversity and the potential benefits of fostering a mixture of tree functional types to enhance long-term forest biomass in the face of climate change.

Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change

The ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to land-atmosphere carbon exchanges, and changes in global GPP as well as its influencing factors have been well studied in recent years. However, identifying the spatio-temporal variations of global GPP under future climate changes is still a challenging issue. This study aims to develop data-driven approach for predicting the global GPP as well as its monthly and annual variations up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Specifically, Catboost was employed to examine the potential relationship between the GPP and environmental factors, with climate variables, CO2 concentration and terrain attributes being selected as environmental factors. The predicted monthly and annual GPP from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that the global GPP is predicted to increase under the future climate change in the 21st century. The annual GPP is expected to be 115.122 Pg C, 116.537 Pg C, 117.626 Pg C, and 120.097 Pg C in 2100 under four future scenarios, and the predicted monthly GPP shows seasonal difference. Meanwhile, GPP tends to increase in the northern mid-high latitude regions and decrease in the equatorial regions. For the climate zones form Köppen-Geiger classification, the arid, cold, and polar zones present increased GPP, while GPP in the tropical zone will decrease in the future. Moreover, the high importance of climate variables in GPP prediction illustrates that the future climate change is the main driver of the global GPP dynamics. This study provides a basis for predicting how global GPP responds to future climate change in the coming decades, which contribute to understanding the interactions between vegetation and climate.

Plant canopies promote climatic disequilibrium in Mediterranean recruit communities

Current rates of climate change are exceeding the capacity of many plant species to track climate, thus leading communities to be in disequilibrium with climatic conditions. Plant canopies can contribute to this disequilibrium by buffering macro-climatic conditions and sheltering poorly adapted species to the oncoming climate, particularly in their recruitment stages. Here we analyse differences in climatic disequilibrium between understorey and open ground woody plant recruits in 28 localities, covering more than 100,000 m2 , across an elevation range embedding temperature and aridity gradients in the southern Iberian Peninsula. This study demonstrates higher climatic disequilibrium under canopies compared with open ground, supporting that plant canopies would affect future community climatic lags by allowing the recruitment of less arid-adapted species in warm and dry conditions, but also it endorse that canopies could favour warm-adapted species in extremely cold environments as mountain tops, thus pre-adapting communities living in these habitats to climate change.

Schrödinger's Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change

AbstractThe majority of species display strongly asymmetric responses to climatic variables, yet most analytic models used to investigate how species will respond to climate change assume symmetric responses, with largely unknown consequences. Applying a known mapping of population dynamical equations onto corresponding well-studied problems from quantum mechanics, we extend analytical results to incorporate this asymmetry. We derive expressions in terms of parameters representing climate velocity, dispersal rate, maximum growth rate, niche width, high-frequency climate variability, and environmental performance curve skew for three key responses: (1) population persistence, (2) lag between range displacement and climate displacement, and (3) location of maximum population sensitivity. We find that asymmetry impacts these climate change responses, but surprisingly, under our model assumptions, the direction (i.e., warm skewed or cool skewed) of performance curve asymmetry does not strongly contribute to either persistence or lags. Conservation measures to support range-shifting populations may have most benefit near their environmental optimum or where the environmental dependence is shallow, irrespective of whether this is the leading or trailing edge. A metapopulation simulation corroborates our results. Our results shed fresh light on how key features of a species' environmental performance curve can impact its response to climate change.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Mutualisms impact species' range expansion speeds and spatial distributions

Species engage in mutually beneficial interspecific interactions (mutualisms) that shape their population dynamics in ecological communities. Species engaged in mutualisms vary greatly in their degree of dependence on their partner from complete dependence (e.g., yucca and yucca moth mutualism) to low dependence (e.g., generalist bee with multiple plant species). While current empirical studies show that, in mutualisms, partner dependence can alter the speed of a species' range expansion, there is no theory that provides conditions when expansion is sped up or slowed down. To address this, we built a spatially explicit model incorporating the population dynamics of two dispersing species interacting mutualistically. We explored how mutualisms impacted range expansion across a gradient of dependence (from complete independence to obligacy) between the two species. We then studied the conditions in which the magnitude of the mutualistic benefits could hinder versus enhance the speed of range expansion. We showed that either complete dependence, no dependence, or intermediate degree of dependence on a mutualist partner can lead to the greatest speeds of a focal species' range expansion based on the magnitude of benefits exchanged between partner species in the mutualism. We then showed how different degrees of dependence between species could alter the spatial distribution of the range expanding populations. Finally, we identified the conditions under which mutualistic interactions can turn exploitative across space, leading to the formation of a species' range limits. Our work highlights how couching mutualisms and mutualist dependence in a spatial context can provide insights about species range expansions, limits, and ultimately their distributions.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Echoes of the past: Agricultural legacies shape the successional dynamics of protected semi-natural dry grasslands

European semi-natural dry grasslands are among the most endangered terrestrial ecosystems, being recognised as habitats of community interest by the EU Habitats Directive. The occurrence and preservation of these habitats depend on a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors, although little is known regarding the role of past land-use changes. Here, we investigated the role of time since cultivation abandonment as a major driver of grassland successional dynamics in the Mediterranean agro-pastoral system of Alta Murgia, southern Italy. By integrating cartographic information on the past agricultural land-use with the main abiotic constraints (patch area, slope and aspect), we used generalised additive mixed models to test for the probability of occurrence of current grassland habitat types along time since cultivation abandonment (10 to 200 years). Our results disclosed the successional sequence of grassland plant communities since crop abandonment in the study area, highlighting that the distribution of semi-natural grassland communities largely depends on land use history besides current environmental patterns. Among the habitat types protected under the EU Habitats Directive, we highlighted that xero-thermic communities may represent an intermediate step of grassland succession after cultivation abandonment, while more mesic perennial communities indicate a late successional stage. These successional dynamics are further modulated by mesoclimatic conditions associated with slope and aspect, especially in case of long-standing pastures that were not historically affected by agricultural transformations. Our findings can contribute to a deeper understanding of dynamics relevant to spontaneous vegetation recovery in open environments, which is a prerequisite for setting up effective grassland conservation and restoration actions. Furthermore, our results underline the value of integrating historical maps and current information for the assessment of habitat conservation status.

Ecological time lags in biodiversity response to habitat changes

The decline of biodiversity can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss, degradation, and other environmental changes, such as global warming. Considerable time lags may be involved in these responses. However, such time lags typically pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Here, we synthesize the current knowledge, categories, manifestations under different scenarios and impacts of ecological time lags. Our work reveals that studies on ecosystem structure lags are far more than ecosystem process and function lags. Due to the presence of these time-lag effects, the 'window phase' typically exists, which is widely recognized as 'relaxation time', providing a particular opportunity for biodiversity conservation. The manifestations of time lags vary under different scenarios. In addition, the different mechanisms that can result in ecological time lags are hierarchically nested, in which mechanisms at the population and metapopulation level have routinely been suggested as explanations for ecological time lags. It generally takes longer time to reach equilibrium at the metapopulation level than it takes for effects to be fully expressed at the level of individuals. Finally, we propose corresponding implications for biodiversity conservation and management. Our research will provide priorities for science and management on how to address the impact of ecological time lags to mitigate future attrition of biodiversity.

North American pollen records provide evidence for macroscale ecological changes in the Anthropocene

Recent global changes associated with anthropogenic activities are impacting ecological systems globally, giving rise to the Anthropocene. Critical reorganization of biological communities and biodiversity loss are expected to accelerate as anthropogenic global change continues. Long-term records offer context for understanding baseline conditions and those trajectories that are beyond the range of normal fluctuation seen over recent millennia: Are we causing changes that are fundamentally different from changes in the past? Using a rich dataset of late Quaternary pollen records, stored in the open-access and community-curated Neotoma database, we analyzed changes in biodiversity and community composition since the end Pleistocene in North America. We measured taxonomic richness, short-term taxonomic loss and gain, first/last appearances (FAD/LAD), and abrupt community change. For all analyses, we incorporated age-model uncertainty and accounted for differences in sample size to generate conservative estimates. The most prominent signals of elevated vegetation change were seen during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and since 200 calendar years before present (cal YBP). During the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, abrupt changes and FADs were elevated, and from 200 to -50 cal YBP, we found increases in short-term taxonomic loss, FADs, LADs, and abrupt changes. Taxonomic richness declined from ~13,000 cal YBP until about 6,000 cal YBP and then increased until the present, reaching levels seen during the end Pleistocene. Regionally, patterns were highly variable. These results show that recent changes associated with anthropogenic impacts are comparable to the landscape changes that took place as we moved from a glacial to interglacial world.

Use climatic space-for-time substitutions with care: Not only climate, but also local environment affect performance of the key forest species bilberry along elevation gradient

An urgent aim of ecology is to understand how key species relate to climatic and environmental variation, to better predict their prospects under future climate change. The abundant dwarf shrub bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) has caught particular interest due to its uphill expansion into alpine areas. Species' performance under changing climate has been widely studied using the climatic space-for-time approach along elevation gradients, but potentially confounding, local environmental variables that vary along elevation gradients have rarely been considered. In this study, performed in 10 sites along an elevation gradient (200-875 m) in W Norway, we recorded species composition and bilberry performance, both vegetative (ramet size and cover) and reproductive (berry and seed production) properties, over one to 4 years. We disentangled effects of local environmental variables and between-year, climatic variation (precipitation and temperature), and identified shared and unique contributions of these variables by variation partitioning. We found bilberry ramet size, cover and berry production to peak at intermediate elevations, whereas seed production increased upwards. The peaks were less pronounced in extreme (dry or cold) summers than in normal summers. Local environmental variables explained much variation in ramet size and cover, less in berry production, and showed no relation to seed production. Climatic variables explained more of the variation in berry and seed production than in ramet size and cover, with temperature relating to vegetative performance, and precipitation to reproductive performance. Bilberry's clonal growth and effective reproduction probably explain why the species persists in the forest and at the same time invades alpine areas. Our findings raise concerns of the appropriateness of the climatic space-for-time approach. We recommend including both climatic and local environmental variables in studies of variation along elevation gradients and conclude that variation partitioning can be a useful supplement to other methods for analysing variation in plant performance.

Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion

The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3.

Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines.

Trajectories and state changes of a grassland stream and riparian zone after a decade of woody vegetation removal

Riparian zones and the streams they border provide vital habitat for organisms, water quality protection, and other important ecosystem services. These areas are under pressure from local (land use/land cover change) to global (climate change) processes. Woody vegetation is expanding in grassland riparian zones worldwide. Here we report on a decade-long watershed-scale mechanical removal of woody riparian vegetation along 4.5 km of stream channel in a before-after control impact experiment. Prior to this removal, woody plants had expanded into grassy riparian areas, associated with a decline in streamflow, loss of grassy plant species, and other ecosystem-scale impacts. We confirmed some expected responses, including rapid increases in stream nutrients and sediments, disappearance of stream mosses, and decreased organic inputs to streams via riparian leaves. We were surprised that nutrient and sediment increases were transient for 3 years, that there was no recovery of stream discharge, and that areas with woody removal did not shift back to a grassland state, even when reseeded with grassland species. Rapid expansion of shrubs (Cornus drummondii, Prunus americana) in the areas where trees were removed allowed woody vegetation to remain dominant despite repeating the cutting every 2 years. Our results suggest woody expansion can fundamentally alter terrestrial and aquatic habitat connections in grasslands, resulting in inexorable movement toward a new ecosystem state. Human pressures, such as climate change, atmospheric CO₂ increases, and elevated atmospheric nitrogen deposition, could continue to push the ecosystem along a trajectory that is difficult to change. Our results suggest that predicting relationships between riparian zones and the streams they border could be difficult in the face of global change in all biomes, even in well-studied sites.

Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia

With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics. Exploring variable traits and trait adaptation through inheritance in an individual-based model can improve our understanding and help future projections. We updated the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator), used for forest predictions in Eastern Siberia, with trait value variation and incorporated inheritance of parental values to their offspring. Forcing the model with both past and future climate projections, we simulated two areas - the expanding northern treeline and a southerly area experiencing drought. While the specific trait of 'seed weight' regulates migration, the abstract 'drought resistance' protects stands. We show that trait variation with inheritance leads to an increase in migration rate (∼ 3% area increase until 2100). The drought resistance simulations show that, under increasing stress, including adaptive traits leads to larger surviving populations (17% of threatened under RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway)). We show that with the increase expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario vast areas (80% of the extrapolated area) of larch forest are threatened and could disappear due to drought as adaptation plays only a minor role under strong warming. We conclude that variable traits facilitate the availability of variants under environmental changes. Inheritance allows populations to adapt to environments and promote successful traits, which leads to populations that can spread faster and be more resilient, provided the changes are not too drastic in both time and magnitude. We show that trait variation and inheritance contribute to more accurate models that can improve our understanding of responses of boreal forests to global change.

Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs

There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO₂ and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO₂-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.

Fast response of vegetation in East Asia to abrupt climatic events during the last deglaciation

Climate changes had major impacts on the vegetation of East Asia during the last deglaciation. However, the rate and pattern of vegetation succession in response to large-scale climatic events during this interval are controversial. Here, we present well-dated decadal-resolution pollen records from annually laminated Maar Lake Xiaolongwan during the last deglaciation. The vegetation changes were rapid and near-synchronous with millennial-scale climatic events, including Greenland Stadial 2.1a (GS-2.1a), Greenland Interstadial 1 (GI-1), Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1), and the early Holocene (EH). The vegetation responded in different ways to the different rates of climate change. Vegetation change was gradual [∼1 thousand years (kyr) response time] during the transition between GS-2.1a and GI-1, but it was faster (∼0.4 kyr response time) during the transitions between GI-1, GS-1, and the EH, resulting in different patterns of vegetation succession. Additionally, the amplitude and pattern of vegetation changes resembled those in the records of regional climate change based on long-chain n-alkanes δ¹³C and stalagmite δ¹⁸O, as well as in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere temperature record and the Greenland ice core δ¹⁸O record. Therefore, the rate and pattern of vegetation succession in the Changbai Mountain of Northeast Asia during the last deglaciation were sensitive to the characteristics of changes in the regional hydrothermal conditions and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere temperature, which were linked to both high- and low-latitude atmospheric-oceanic dynamics. Overall, our findings reveal a close relationship between ecosystem succession and hydrothermal changes during these millennial-scale climatic events in East Asia during the last deglaciation.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections

Climate change has dramatic impacts on ecological systems, affecting a range of ecological factors including phenology, species abundance, diversity, and distribution. The breadth of climate change impacts on ecological systems leads to the occurrence of fingerprints of climate change. However, climate fingerprints are usually identified across broad geographical scales and are potentially influenced by publication biases. In this study, we used natural history collections spanning over 250 years, to quantify a range of ecological responses to climate change, including phenology, abundance, diversity, and distributions, across a range of taxa, including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fungi, within a single region, Central Norway. We tested the hypotheses that ecological responses to climate change are apparent and coherent at a regional scale, that longer time series show stronger trends over time and in relation to temperature, and that ecological responses change in trajectory at the same time as shifts in temperature. We identified a clear regional coherence in climate signal, with decreasing abundances of limnic zooplankton (on average by 7691 individuals m-3 °C-1) and boreal forest breeding birds (on average by 1.94 territories km-2 °C-1), and earlier plant flowering phenology (on average 2 days °C-1) for every degree of temperature increase. In contrast, regional-scale species distributions and species diversity were largely stable. Surprisingly, the effect size of ecological response did not increase with study duration, and shifts in responses did not occur at the same time as shifts in temperature. This may be as the long-term studies include both periods of warming and temperature stability, and that ecological responses lag behind warming. Our findings demonstrate a regional climate fingerprint across a long timescale. We contend that natural history collections provide a unique window on a broad spectrum of ecological responses at timescales beyond most ecological monitoring programs. Natural history collections are thus an essential source for long-term ecological research.

Climate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity

Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous net primary productivity with an ensemble of climate models, we demonstrate that assumptions concerning the magnitude of climate disequilibrium are a dominant source of uncertainty: models assuming maximum disequilibrium project widespread decreases in productivity in the western US by 2100, while models assuming minimal disequilibrium project productivity increases. Uncertainty related to climate disequilibrium is larger than uncertainties from variation among climate models or emissions pathways. A better understanding of processes that regulate climate disequilibria is essential for improving long-term projections of ecological responses and informing management to maintain ecosystem functioning at historical baselines.

The deglacial forest conundrum

How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict.

Historical and future climate change fosters expansion of Australian harvester termites, Drepanotermes

Past evolutionary adaptations to Australia's aridification can help us to understand the potential responses of species in the face of global climate change. Here, we focus on the Australian-endemic genus Drepanotermes, also known as Australian harvester termites, which are mainly found in semiarid and arid regions of Australia. We used species delineation, phylogenetic inference, and ancestral state reconstruction to investigate the evolution of mound-building in Drepanotermes and in relation to reconstructed past climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that mound-building evolved several times independently in Drepanotermes, apparently facilitating expansions into tropical and mesic regions of Australia. The phylogenetic signal of bioclimatic variables, especially limiting environmental factors (e.g., precipitation of the warmest quarter), suggests that the climate exerts a strong selective pressure. Finally, we used environmental niche modeling to predict the present and future habitat suitability for eight Drepanotermes species. Abiotic factors such as annual temperature contributed disproportionately to calibrations, while the inclusion of biotic factors such as predators and vegetation cover improved ecological niche models in some species. A comparison between present and future habitat suitability under two different emission scenarios revealed continued suitability of current ranges as well as substantial habitat gains for most studied species. Human-mediated climate change occurs more quickly than these termites can disperse into newly suitable habitat; however, their role in stabilizing arid ecosystems may allow them to mitigate effects on some other organisms at a local level.

Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion

Arctic shrub expansion alters carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes but remains challenging to predict due to unclear underlying controls. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (bioclimate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, while omitting shrub demographic processes and non-stationary response to changing climate. Here, we use high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984-2014, but can only be explained by considering seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted based on increasing environmental suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents shrub expansion pattern and its associated carbon sink.

Climate adaptation of biodiversity conservation in managed forest landscapes

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems.

Short-term forest resilience after drought-induced die-off in Southwestern European forests

Drought-induced die-off in forests is becoming a widespread phenomenon across biomes, but the factors determining potential shifts in taxonomic and structural characteristics following mortality are largely unknown. We report on short-term patterns of resilience after drought-induced episodes of tree mortality across 48 monospecific forests from Morocco to Slovenia. Field surveys recorded plants growing beneath a canopy of dead, defoliated and healthy trees. Site-level structural characteristics and management legacy were also recorded. Resilience was assessed with reference to forest composition (self-replacement), structure, and changes in the climatic suitability of the replacing community relative to the climatic suitability of the dominant pre-drought species. Species climatic suitability was estimated from species distribution models calculated for the baseline 1970-2000 period. Short-term resilience decreased under higher levels of drought-induced damage to the dominant species and with evidences of management legacy. Greater resilience of structural features (fewer gaps, greater canopy height) was observed overall in forests with a larger basal area. Less gaps were also associated with greater woody species richness after drought. Overall, Fagaceae-dominated forests exhibited greater structural resilience than conifer-dominated ones. On those sites that were more climatically suited to the dominant pre-drought species, replacing communities tended to exhibit lower climatic suitability than pre-drought dominant species. There was a greater loss of climatic suitability under a legacy of management and drought intensity, but less so in the replacing communities with higher woody species richness. Our study reveals that short-term forest resilience is determined by pre-drought stand characteristics, often reflecting previous management legacies, and by the impact of drought on both the dominant pre-drought species and post-drought replacing species in terms of their climatic suitability.

The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution and Evolution Process of Catalpa bungei in China

Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey. (C. bungei) is one of the recommended native species for ecological management in China. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and ecological importance, but its rare resources, caused by anthropogenic destruction and local climatic degradation, have not satisfied the requirements. It has been widely recommended for large-scale afforestation of ecological management and gradually increasing in recent years, but the impact mechanism of climate change on its growth has not been studied yet. Studying the response of species to climate change is an important part of national afforestation planning. Based on combinations of climate, topography, soil variables, and the multiple model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6, this study explored the relationship between C. bungei and climate change, then constructed Maxent to predict its potential distribution under SSP126 and SSP585 and analyzed its dominant environmental factors. The results showed that C. bungei is widely distributed in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi provinces and others where it covers an area of 2.96 × 106 km2. Under SSP126 and SSP585, its overall habitat area will increase by more than 14.2% in 2080–2100, which mainly indicates the transformation of unsuitable areas into low suitable areas. The center of its distribution will migrate to the north with a longer distance under SSP585 than that under SSP126, and it will transfer from the junction of Shaanxi and Hubei province to the north of Shaanxi province under SSP585 by 2100. In that case, C. bungei shows a large-area degradation trend in the south of the Yangtze River Basin but better suitability in the north of the Yellow River Basin, such as the Northeast Plain, the Tianshan Mountains, the Loess Plateau, and others. Temperature factors have the greatest impact on the distribution of C. bungei. It is mainly affected by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, followed by precipitation of the wettest month, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Our results hence demonstrate that the increase of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter becomes the main reason for its degradation, which simultaneously means a larger habitat boundary in Northeast China. The findings provide scientific evidence for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of C. bungei in China.

Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for biological impact assessments and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative assessments. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate–ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop a more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change.

Satellite-Observed Effects from Ozone Pollution and Climate Change on Growing-Season Vegetation Activity over China during 1982–2020

Remote sensing vegetation index data contain important information about the effects of ozone pollution, climate change and other factors on vegetation growth. However, the absence of long-term observational data on surface ozone pollution and neglected air pollution-induced effects on vegetation growth have made it difficult to conduct in-depth studies on the long-term, large-scale ozone pollution effects on vegetation health. In this study, a multiple linear regression model was developed, based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, ozone mass mixing ratio (OMR) data at 1000 hPa, and temperature (T), precipitation (P) and surface net radiation (SSR) data during 1982–2020 to quantitatively assess the impact of ozone pollution and climate change on vegetation growth in China on growing season. The OMR data showed an increasing trend in 99.9% of regions in China over the last 39 years, and both NDVI values showed increasing trends on a spatial basis with different ozone pollution levels. Additionally, the significant correlations between NDVI and OMR, temperature and SSR indicate that vegetation activity is closely related to ozone pollution and climate change. Ozone pollution affected 12.5% of NDVI, and climate change affected 26.7% of NDVI. Furthermore, the effects from ozone pollution and climate change on forest, shrub, grass and crop vegetation were evaluated. Notably, the impact of ozone pollution on vegetation growth was 0.47 times that of climate change, indicating that the impact of ozone pollution on vegetation growth cannot be ignored. This study not only deepens the understanding of the effects of ozone pollution and climate change on vegetation growth but also provides a research framework for the large-scale monitoring of air pollution on vegetation health using remote sensing vegetation data.

Hydro-Environmental Criteria for Introducing an Edible Halophyte from a Rainy Region to an Arid Zone: A Study Case of Suaeda spp. as a New Crop in NW México

Halophytes are capable of growing in saline environments. However, this attribute results from a wide genetic variability, making it difficult to approximate halophytes’ agroecological management. We examined the hydro-climatological attributes associated with the distribution of species of the genus Suaeda in NW Mexico and SW USA, and for S. edulis in central México. The analysis focused on the introduction of the semi-domesticated species Suaeda edulis as a new crop, from central regions of México, reaching an average yield of 8 Mg ha⁻¹ of biomass, to arid NW México. The list of Suaeda species was elaborated from the eHALOPH and Calflora databases, and the NW México Herbarium Network. According to the Hydro-Environmental Availability Index (HEAI), the central regions of Mexico reflect a greater water availability, suitable for S. edulis. In such a humid region, HEAI varied from 6 to 18, indicating sufficient moisture for crops. In contrast, other Suaeda species, including S. nigra, S. esteroa, and S. californica, spread in NW Mexico and SW United States, where the water availability is null during the year, with HEAI scoring from 0 to 4. Under such dryness, S. edulis in NW Mexico will require water through optimized irrigation and plant breeding strategies to ensure its viability as a new crop.

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.

Dispersal evolution in temporally variable environments: implications for plant range dynamics

Dispersal-the movement of an individual from the site of birth to a different site for reproduction-is an ecological and evolutionary driver of species ranges that shapes patterns of colonization, connectivity, gene flow, and adaptation. In plants, the traits that influence dispersal often vary within and among species, are heritable, and evolve in response to the fitness consequences of moving through heterogeneous landscapes. Spatial and temporal variation in the quality and quantity of habitat are important sources of selection on dispersal strategies across species ranges. While recent reviews have evaluated the interactions between spatial variation in habitat and dispersal dynamics, the extent to which geographic variation in temporal variability can also shape range-wide patterns in dispersal traits has not been synthesized. In this paper, we summarize key predictions from metapopulation models that evaluate how dispersal evolves in response to spatial and temporal habitat variability. Next, we compile empirical data that quantify temporal variability in plant demography and patterns of dispersal trait variation across species ranges to evaluate the hypothesis that higher temporal variability favors increased dispersal at plant range limits. We found some suggestive evidence supporting this hypothesis while more generally identifying a major gap in empirical work evaluating plant metapopulation dynamics across species ranges and geographic variation in dispersal traits. To address this gap, we propose several future research directions that would advance our understanding of the interplay between spatiotemporal variability and dispersal trait variation in shaping the dynamics of current and future species ranges.

Why Is the Alpine Flora Comparatively Robust against Climatic Warming?

The alpine belt hosts the treeless vegetation above the high elevation climatic treeline. The way alpine plants manage to thrive in a climate that prevents tree growth is through small stature, apt seasonal development, and ‘managing’ the microclimate near the ground surface. Nested in a mosaic of micro-environmental conditions, these plants are in a unique position by a close-by neighborhood of strongly diverging microhabitats. The range of adjacent thermal niches that the alpine environment provides is exceeding the worst climate warming scenarios. The provided mountains are high and large enough, these are conditions that cause alpine plant species diversity to be robust against climatic change. However, the areal extent of certain habitat types will shrink as isotherms move upslope, with the potential areal loss by the advance of the treeline by far outranging the gain in new land by glacier retreat globally.