Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Canada, 2019-2030: a modelling study

Trends in the burden of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study of cirrhosis-related hospitalisations between 1998 and 2020

OBJECTIVE

Liver cirrhosis is an increasing cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide with a heavy load on healthcare systems. We analysed the trends in hospitalisations for cirrhosis in Switzerland.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Large nationwide inpatient database, years between 1998 and 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Hospitalisations for cirrhosis of adult patients were selected.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Hospitalisations with either a primary diagnosis of cirrhosis or a cirrhosis-related primary diagnosis with a mandatory presence of cirrhosis as a secondary diagnosis were considered following the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems codes. Trends in demographic and clinical characteristics, in-hospital mortality and length of stay were analysed. Causes and costs of cirrhosis-related hospitalisations were available from 2012 onwards.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis-related hospitalisations increased from 1631 in 1998 to 4052 in 2020. Of the patients, 68.7% were men. Alcohol-related liver disease was the leading cause, increasing from 44.1% (95% CI, 42.4% to 45.9%) in 2012 to 47.9% (95% CI, 46.4% to 49.5%) in 2020. Assessed by exclusion of other coded causes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was the second cause at 42.7% (95% CI, 41.2% to 44.3%) in 2020. Hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis decreased from 12.3% (95% CI, 11.2% to 13.5%) in 2012 to 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7% to 3.8%) in 2020. Median length of stay decreased from 11 to 8 days. Hospitalisations with an intensive care unit stay increased from 9.8% (95% CI, 8.4% to 11.4%) to 15.6% (95% CI, 14.5% to 16.8%). In-hospital mortality decreased from 12.1% (95% CI, 10.5% to 13.8%) to 9.7% (95% CI, 8.8% to 10.7%). Total costs increased from 54.4 million US$ (51.4 million €) in 2012 to 92.6 million US$ (87.5 million €) in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis-related hospitalisations and related costs increased in Switzerland from 1998 to 2020 but in-hospital mortality decreased. Alcohol-related liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease were the most prevalent and preventable aetiologies of cirrhosis-related hospitalisations.

Adiposity Phenotypes and Associated Cardiometabolic Risk Profile in the Inuit Population of Nunavik

The Inuit population of Nunavik is faced with a significant rise in the prevalence of obesity [body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2], but the impact on cardiometabolic health is unclear. The aim of this study was to characterize adiposity phenotypes and explore their associations with cardiometabolic risk factors among Nunavimmiut men and women. We used data obtained from 1296 Inuit who participated in the Qanuilirpitaa? 2017 Nunavik Inuit Health survey. Collected information included demographics, anthropometric measurements including visceral fat level (VFL) measured using electrical bioimpedance, biomarkers, hemodynamics, medical history and medication list. Adjusted population-weighted linear regressions were conducted to assess associations between body fat distribution and cardiometabolic risk factors. The accuracy and cut-off points of anthropometric indices to detect cardiometabolic abnormalities was evaluated by area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and a maximum Youden index analysis. Among Nunavimmiut (mean age 38.8 years [95%CI: 38.4 to 39.3]), obesity was observed in 42.8% of women and 25.6% of men. Compared to men, women presented a higher prevalence of abdominal obesity (78.8% vs. 46.4% in men, p < 0.05) and elevated VFL (54.4% vs. 20.1% with an InBody level ≥ 13, p < 0.05). Indices of global fat distribution and abdominal adiposity including VFL provided poor to moderate ability to detect cardiometabolic abnormalities (AUROC between 0.64 and 0.79). This analysis revealed that despite a high prevalence of abdominal obesity, particularly among women, anthropometric measurements of adiposity are inconsistently associated cardio-metabolic risk factors in Inuit adults of Nunavik.

Identifying patients with diagnosed cirrhosis in administrative health databases: a validation study

Objectives

Case ascertainment algorithms were developed and validated to identify people living with cirrhosis in administrative health data in Manitoba, Canada using primary care electronic medical records (EMR) to define the reference standards.

Methods

We linked provincial administrative health data to primary care EMR data. The validation cohort included 116,675 Manitobans aged >18 years with at least one primary care visit between April 1998 and March 2015. Hospital records, physician billing claims, vital statistics, and prescription drug data were used to develop and test 93 case-finding algorithms. A validated case definition for primary care EMR data was the reference standard. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), Youden's index, area under the receiver operative curve, and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

A total of 116,675 people were in the validation cohort. The prevalence of cirrhosis was 1.4% (n = 1593). Algorithm sensitivity estimates ranged from 32.5% (95% CI 32.2-32.8) to 68.3% (95% CI 68.0-68.9) and PPV from 17.4% (95% CI 17.1-17.6) to 23.4% (95% CI 23.1-23.6). Specificity (95.5-98.2) and NPV (approximately 99%) were high for all algorithms. The algorithms had slightly higher sensitivity estimates among men compared with women, and individuals aged ≥45 years compared to those aged 18-44 years.

Conclusion

Cirrhosis algorithms applied to administrative health data had moderate validity when a validated case definition for primary care EMRs was the reference standard. This study provides algorithms for identifying diagnosed cirrhosis cases for population-based research and surveillance studies.

The New FibroScan-AST (FAST) Score: Enhancing Diabetes Mellitus Impact on Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease

Background

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is an increasingly prevalent cause of chronic liver disease. In 2020, the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score was internationally validated as a new tool able to identify patients with steatohepatitis who benefit the most from further therapies, based on liver transient elastography (LTE) findings and serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST). We aimed to identify, in MAFLD patients, which metabolic features may predict a higher FAST score.

Methods

Retrospective study of consecutive patients with MAFLD submitted to LTE for two consecutive years. Patients without an AST sample collected within 6 months of the LTE were excluded. FAST score was calculated, stratifying the patient's risk as low (<0.35), medium (0.35-0.67), or high (>0.67).

Results

The sample included 117 patients, 53.0% of the female gender, with a mean age of 53 years. On multivariate analysis, patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (p < 0.001), dyslipidemia (p = 0.046), and smoking habits (p = 0.037) presented with significantly higher FAST score values. Furthermore, diabetic patients did not only present significantly higher FAST scores but were also more frequently assigned to the high-risk group according to FAST score criteria (OR = 9.2; 95% CI = 1.8-45.5; p = 0.007).

Conclusions

Calculating the FAST score, patients with T2DM presented a significantly higher risk of having significant fibrosis and steatohepatitis. Physicians may rely on this validated instrument to more easily identify which patients with T2DM and MAFLD benefit the most from a specialized follow-up.

Comparison of different definitions of metabolic syndrome and their associations with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a retrospective study

Background

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is considered an important risk factor for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to measure the prevalence of MetS based on six different MetS definitions and compare the performance of various definitions for identifying diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia among NAFLD patients.

Methods

The definitions compared were those developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists (AACE), American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), and Interim Joint Statement "harmonized" criteria. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the six MetS definitions with NAFLD diagnosis. The diagnosis for NAFLD was established based on liver imaging or biopsy compatible with fatty liver disease.

Results

A total of 500 NAFLD patients were analyzed. The mean age was 61.2 (SD 13.2) years, and BMI was 32.7 (SD 8.0) kg/m2. The most prevalent MetS component was dyslipidemia (83%), followed by hypertension (60%), obesity (61%), and diabetes (57%). The prevalence of MetS according to the WHO, NCEP/ATP-III, IDF, AACE, AHA/NHLBI, and harmonized criteria was 69%, 59%, 54%, 64%, 78%, and 79%, respectively. The highest area under the ROC curve for diabetes and hypertension was with the WHO definition (0.7405) and (0.8120), respectively.

Conclusions

The prevalence of MetS in NAFLD patients varies according to the definitions of MetS employed. The modified WHO definition appeared to be most useful for the screening of MetS in NAFLD patients.

Geographical disparities in gastroenterologists and transient elastography across Canada

Background

In the next decade, the incidence and prevalence of advanced liver disease are expected to increase across Canada. However, little is known about the country's resources for monitoring patients requiring specialized care. A resource assessment was conducted to evaluate regional disparities of specialists and transient elastography machines across Canada.

Methods

Demographic data on licenced gastroenterologists were obtained from Scott's Medical Directory as of October 2022. The primary location of each specialist was linked to 2016 Statistics Canada to obtain the population size and density of provinces/territories and census division (CD). Results were summarized per 100,000 persons. CDs were classified as resource scare or approaching resource scarcity. A list of transient elastography (TE) was provided by KNS Canada Inc. and summarized per 1,000,000 persons by province.

Results

Eight hundred fifty-three specialists were identified. Rates of gastroenterologists per 100,000 people ranged from 0 in the territories to 2.9 in Quebec. Half the provinces had fewer than 2.0 gastroenterologists per 100,000 persons. Gastroenterologists were concentrated in 24% (71/293) of the CDs across Canada. We identified resource-scarce CDs as areas with no gastroenterologists and in the highest tercile of population density, which accounted for 33% (1 of 3) in Prince Edward Island, 32% in Quebec, 25% in Ontario, 7% in British Columbia, and 4% in Manitoba. Only 94 TEs were identified nationwide.

Conclusion

We found significant variation in liver-specific resources across Canada. Given the increasing number of people living with liver disease, policies must be implemented to address access to specialized care.

Novel Therapeutic Approaches to Liver Fibrosis Based on Targeting Oxidative Stress

Chronic liver disease (CLD) constitutes a growing global health issue, with no effective treatments currently available. Oxidative stress closely interacts with other cellular and molecular processes to trigger stress pathways in different hepatic cells and fuel the development of liver fibrosis. Therefore, inhibition of reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated effects and modulation of major antioxidant responses to counteract oxidative stress-induced damage have emerged as interesting targets to prevent or ameliorate liver injury. Although many preclinical studies have shown that dietary supplements with antioxidant properties can significantly prevent CLD progression in animal models, this strategy has not proved effective to significantly reduce fibrosis when translated into clinical trials. Novel and more specific therapeutic approaches are thus required to alleviate oxidative stress and reduce liver fibrosis. We have reviewed the relevant literature concerning the crucial role of alterations in redox homeostasis in different hepatic cell types during the progression of CLD and discussed current pharmacological approaches to ameliorate fibrosis by reducing oxidative stress focusing on selective modulation of enzymatic oxidant sources, antioxidant systems and ROS-mediated pathogenic processes.

Global incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 63 studies and 1,201,807 persons

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing. We aimed to estimate the pooled global NAFLD incidence.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults without NAFLD at baseline to evaluate the global incidence of ultrasound-diagnosed NAFLD.

RESULTS

A total of 63 eligible studies (1,201,807 persons) were analyzed. Studies were from Mainland China/Hong Kong (n = 26), South Korea (n = 22), Japan (n = 14), other (n = 2, Sri Lanka, Israel); 63.8% were clinical center studies; median study year 2000 to 2016; 87% were good quality. Among the 1,201,807 persons at risk, 242,568 persons developed NAFLD, with an incidence rate of 4,612.8 (95% CI 3,931.5-5,294.2) per 100,000 person-years and no statistically significant differences by study sample size (p = 0.90) or study setting (p = 0.055). Males had higher incidence vs. females (5,943.8 vs. 3,671.7, p = 0.0013). Both the obese (vs. non-obese) and the overweight/obese groups (vs. normal weight) were about threefold more likely to develop NAFLD (8,669.6 vs. 2,963.9 and 8,416.6 vs. 3,358.2, respectively) (both p <0.0001). Smokers had higher incidence than non-smokers (8,043.2 vs. 4,689.7, p = 0.046). By meta-regression, adjusting for study year, study setting, and study location, study period of 2010 or after and study setting were associated with increased incidence (p = 0.010 and p = 0.055, respectively). By country, China had a higher NAFLD incidence compared to non-China regions (p = 0.012) and Japan a lower incidence compared to non-Japan regions (p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD incidence is increasing with a current estimate of 4,613 new cases per 100,000 person-years. Males and overweight/obese individuals had significantly higher incidence rates compared to females and those of normal weight. Public health interventions for prevention of NAFLD are needed with a special emphasis on males, overweight/obese individuals, and higher risk regions.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 30% of people worldwide and appears to be increasing, but data to estimate the incidence rate are limited. In this meta-analytic study of over 1.2 million people, we estimated an incidence rate of NAFLD of 46.13 per 1,000 person-years with significant differences by sex, BMI, geography, and time-period. As treatment options for NAFLD remain limited, prevention of NAFLD should remain the focus of public health strategies. Studies such as these can help policy makers in determining which and whether their interventions are impactful.

The antianginal ranolazine fails to improve glycaemia in obese liver-specific pyruvate dehydrogenase deficient male mice

AIMS

Recent studies have demonstrated that stimulating pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH, gene Pdha1), the rate-limiting enzyme of glucose oxidation, can reverse obesity-induced non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which can be achieved via treatment with the antianginal ranolazine. Accordingly, our aim was to determine whether ranolazine's ability to mitigate obesity-induced NAFLD and hyperglycaemia requires increases in hepatic PDH activity.

METHODS

We generated liver-specific PDH-deficient (Pdha1Liver-/- ) mice, which were provided a high-fat diet for 12 weeks to induce obesity. Pdha1Liver-/- mice and their albumin-Cre (AlbCre ) littermates were randomized to treatment with either vehicle control or ranolazine (50 mg/kg) once daily via oral gavage during the final 5 weeks, following which we assessed glucose and pyruvate tolerance.

RESULTS

Pdha1Liver-/- mice exhibited no overt phenotypic differences (e.g. adiposity, glucose tolerance) when compared to their AlbCre littermates. Of interest, ranolazine treatment improved glucose tolerance and mildly reduced hepatic triacylglycerol content in obese AlbCre mice but not in obese Pdha1Liver-/- mice. The latter was independent of changes in hepatic mRNA expression of genes involved in regulating lipogenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver-specific PDH deficiency is insufficient to promote an NAFLD phenotype. Nonetheless, hepatic PDH activity partially contributes to how the antianginal ranolazine improves glucose tolerance and alleviates hepatic steatosis in obesity.

Priority actions for elevating liver health in Canada: A call to action

Chronic liver disease (CLD) has become a silent epidemic in our country and has resulted in significant physical, psychosocial, and financial burden. Although other international liver associations have published frameworks for the principal actions required to improve liver health across health systems, Canada does not have a strategy to address the growing concerns of CLD. Thus, a multidisciplinary group of care providers involved in CLD management in Canada gathered to review the current burden of disease, gaps in management, and key opportunities for improving the identification and management of people at risk of developing progressive CLD.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies.

RESULTS

Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.

Global incidence and prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of liver disease worldwide. The estimated global incidence of NAFLD is 47 cases per 1,000 population and is higher among males than females. The estimated global prevalence of NAFLD among adults is 32% and is higher among males (40%) compared to females (26%). The global prevalence of NAFLD has increased over time, from 26% in studies from 2005 or earlier to 38% in studies from 2016 or beyond. The prevalence of NAFLD varies substantially by world region, contributed by differing rates of obesity, and genetic and socioeconomic factors. The prevalence of NAFLD exceeds 40% in the Americas and South-East Asia. The prevalence of NAFLD is projected to increase significantly in multiple world regions by 2030 if current trends are left unchecked. In this review, we discuss trends in the global incidence and prevalence of NAFLD and discuss future projections.

Enhanced diagnosis of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in individuals with NAFLD using FibroScan-based Agile scores

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Currently available non-invasive tests, including fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM by VCTE), are highly effective at excluding advanced fibrosis (AF) (F ≥3) or cirrhosis in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but only have moderate ability to rule-in these conditions. Our objective was to develop and validate two new scores (Agile 4 and Agile 3+) to identify cirrhosis or AF, respectively, with optimized positive predictive value and fewer indeterminate results, in individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics.

METHODS

This international study included seven adult cohorts with suspected NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, LSM and blood sampling during routine clinical practice or screening for trials. The population was randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set, on which the best-fitting logistic regression model was built, and performance and goodness of fit were assessed, respectively. Furthermore, both scores were externally validated on two large cohorts. Cut-offs for high sensitivity and specificity were derived in the training set to rule-out and rule-in cirrhosis or AF and then tested in the validation set and compared to FIB-4 and LSM.

RESULTS

Each score combined LSM, AST/ALT ratio, platelets, sex and diabetes status, as well as age for Agile 3+. Calibration plots for Agile 4 and Agile 3+ indicated satisfactory to excellent goodness of fit. Agile 4 and Agile 3+ outperformed FIB-4 and LSM in terms of AUROC, percentage of patients with indeterminate results and positive predictive value to rule-in cirrhosis or AF.

CONCLUSIONS

The two novel non-invasive scores improve identification of cirrhosis or AF among individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics and reduce the need for liver biopsy in this population.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Non-invasive tests currently used to identify patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, such as fibrosis-4 index and liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography, have high negative predictive values but high false positive rates, while results are indeterminate for a large number of cases. This study provides scores that will help the clinician diagnose advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. These new easy-to-implement scores will help liver specialists to better identify (1) patients who need more intensive follow-up, (2) patients who should be referred for inclusion in therapeutic trials, and (3) which patients should be treated with pharmacological agents when effective therapies are approved.

Screening Patterns of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Children with Obesity in Canadian Primary Care: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common pediatric chronic liver disease, and children with a body mass index (BMI) ≥95th percentile are recommended to be screened for NAFLD by liver enzymes.

Objectives

This study aimed to determine the frequency and predictors of screening for NAFLD among children with obesity in Canada and to evaluate a sample of children with suspected NAFLD.

Methods

This cross-sectional study used data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network, a repository of electronic medical record data from Canadian primary care practices.

Results

Of n = 110,827 children aged 9-18 years, 13.9% (n = 9,888) had a BMI ≥95th percentile. Only 8.7% (n = 859) of these patients were screened for NAFLD in the last year, and 23.6% (n = 2336) were ever screened. Using logistic regression, screening in the last year was associated with demographic and clinical characteristics, including previous liver enzyme assessment, prior antidiabetic prescription, and prior anxiolytic prescription. Among children with suspected NAFLD (n = 1,046), 34.7% had a BMI ≥99th percentile and approximately 8% were at increased risk of significant liver disease.

Conclusion

The study revealed low screening rates for NAFLD in Canadian primary care and highlighted the important role of primary care providers in identifying and managing pediatric NAFLD.

Real-world treatment patterns, clinical outcomes, and health care resource utilization in advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: The incidence of advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in developed countries and the prognosis of advanced HCC remains poor. Real-world evidence of treatment patterns and outcomes can highlight the unmet clinical need. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study of patients with advanced unresectable HCC diagnosed in Alberta, Canada (2008-2018) using electronic medical records and administrative claims data. A chart review was conducted on patients treated with systemic therapy to capture additional information related to treatment. RESULTS: A total of 1,297 advanced HCC patients were included of whom 555 (42.8%) were recurrent cases and the remainder were unresectable at diagnosis. Median age at diagnosis was 64 (range 21-94) years and 82.1% were men. Only 274 patients (21.1%) received first-line systemic therapy and, of those, 32 patients (11.7%) initiated second-line therapy. Nearly all of the patients received sorafenib (>96.4%) in first-line, and these patients had considerably higher median survival (12.23 months; 95% CI 10.72-14.10) compared with patients not treated with systemic therapy (2.66 months; 95% CI 2.33-3.12; log-rank p <0.001). Among patients treated with systemic therapy, overall survival was higher for recurrent cases, patients with Child-Pugh A functional status, and patients with HCV or multiple known HCC risk factors (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In a Canadian real-world setting, patients who received systemic therapy had greater survival than those who did not, but outcomes were universally poor. These results underscore the need for effective front-line therapeutic options.

Forecasted 2040 global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using hierarchical bayesian approach

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040.

METHODS

Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality.

RESULTS

The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85).

CONCLUSION

By 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.

Review article: the epidemiologic burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease across the world

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing in parallel with obesity and type 2 diabetes.

AIM

To review the global epidemiology of NAFLD METHODS: We retrieved articles from PubMed using search terms of NAFLD, epidemiology, prevalence, incidence, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Over 250 articles were reviewed. In 2016, the global NAFLD prevalence was 25%; this increased to >30% in 2019. Prevalence in Asia, Latin America and Middle East-North Africa (MENA) was 30.8%, 34.5% and 42.6%, respectively. Prevalence increased with age. Although prevalence was higher in men, prevalence in post-menopausal women was similar. NAFLD prevalence was higher in certain subpopulations, especially among the obese and those with metabolic syndrome (MS). However, the prevalence of lean NAFLD was 11.2%. The global prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is estimated between 2% and 6% in the general population. Approximately 7% of patients with NAFLD have advanced fibrosis; rates were between 21% and 50% among patients with NASH. Overall mortality related to NAFLD was 15-20 per 1000 person-years, and increased substantially in patients with NASH, especially in those with components of MS. Recent data suggest mortality/morbidity from NAFLD is increasing globally but NAFLD awareness remains low among patients and healthcare providers.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD poses a global public health problem with a very high disease burden in Asia, MENA and Latin America. Research is needed to better quantify the full impact of NAFLD and to develop strategies to improve awareness and risk stratification.

Hypolipidemic Effects of Soy Protein and Isoflavones in the Prevention of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease- A Review

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease and affects about 25% of the population globally. Obesity and diabetes are the main causes of the disease characterized by excessive accumulation of lipids in the liver. There is currently no direct pharmacological treatments for NAFLD. Dietary intervention and lifestyle modification are the key strategies in the prevention and treatment of the disease. Soy consumption is associated with many health benefits such as decreased incidence of coronary heart disease, type-2 diabetes, atherosclerosis and obesity. The hypolipidemic functions of soy components have been shown in both animal studies and human clinical trials. Dietary soy proteins and associated isoflavones suppressed the formation and accumulation of lipid droplets in the liver and improved NAFLD-associated metabolic syndrome. The molecular mechanism(s) underlying the effects of soy components are mainly through modulation of transcription factors, sterol regulatory element-binding protein-1 and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ2, and expressions of their target genes involved in lipogenesis and lipolysis as well as lipid droplet-promoting protein, fat-specific protein-27. Inclusion of appropriate amounts of soy protein and isoflavones in the diets might be a useful approach to decrease the prevalence of NAFLD and mitigate disease burden.

Changing clinical management of NAFLD in Asia

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the leading cause of chronic liver disease, affecting approximately 25% of the world's population. Recently, because of the sedentary lifestyle and overnutrition resulting from urbanisation, the burden of NAFLD has rapidly increased in many Asian countries. Currently, the prevalence of NAFLD in Asia is approximately 30%, as is the case in many Western countries. In Asia, the prevalence and presentation of NAFLD vary widely across regions because of the substantial diversity in race, socioeconomic status and living environment. Furthermore, the dual aetiology of fatty liver, particularly with viral hepatitis in Asia, makes it complex and challenging to manage. Because Asians are likely to have central adiposity and insulin resistance, approximately 7%-20% of non-obese Asians with body mass indexes of less than 25 kg/m² are estimated to have NAFLD. Accumulating evidence indicates that NAFLD is associated with various extrahepatic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, malignancy, in addition to liver-specific complications. Therefore, NAFLD should be managed as a multisystem disease in conjunction with metabolic syndrome. Lifestyle modification remains the basis of NAFLD management, but few patients can achieve adequate weight loss and maintain it long term. While various pharmacological agents are in phase 3 trials for steatohepatitis, Asian patients are underrepresented in most trials. This article reviews the epidemiological trends, clinical features, optimal assessment and current management practices for NAFLD in Asia.

C282Y/H63D Compound Heterozygosity Is a Low Penetrance Genotype for Iron Overload-related Disease

Background

Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) occurs due to mutations in the HFE gene. While the C282Y mutation is the most common genotype reported in HH, other genotypes are found less frequently, indicating variable degrees of penetrance. We studied the penetrance of the C282Y/H63D compound heterozygote genotype in developing clinically significant iron overload.

Methods

We have completed a retrospective analysis on every individual within Newfoundland & Labrador who were diagnosed as C282Y/H63D compound heterozygote between 1996 and 2009 through a molecular genetics study. We collected data for up to 10 years following the initial genotyping using electronic health records, including laboratory values, phlebotomy status, radiologic reports and clinic records. Iron overload status was classified based on the HealthIron study.

Results

Between 1996 and 2009, 247 individuals with available health records tested positive for C282Y/H63D compound heterozygosity. Over the 10 years of our study, 5.3% of patients exhibited iron overload-related disease on the background of documented iron overload. Including these individuals, 10.1% of patients had documented iron overload, 23.1% of patients had a provisional iron overload and the remaining 66.8% of patients had no evidence of iron overload. Only 44 patients had documented phlebotomies, likely based on their severe phenotype at baseline. Despite phlebotomy, the prevalence of iron overload was higher among these patients. The penetrance of compound heterozygosity was also significantly higher among men (P &lt; 0.01).

Conclusion

C282Y/H63D compound heterozygosity is a low penetrance genotype in HH. This is the largest reported cohort of C282Y/H63D compound heterozygotes in North America with an extended follow-up.

Rising Healthcare Costs and Utilization among Young Adults with Cirrhosis in Ontario: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES

Chronic diseases account for the majority of healthcare spending. Cirrhosis is a chronic disease whose burden is rising, especially in young adults. This study aimed at describing the direct healthcare costs and utilization in young adults with cirrhosis compared to other chronic diseases common to this age group.

METHODS

Retrospective population-based study of routinely collected healthcare data from Ontario for the fiscal years 2007-2016 and housed at ICES. Young adults (aged 18-40 years) with cirrhosis, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and asthma were identified based on validated case definitions. Total and annual direct healthcare costs and utilization were calculated per individual across multiple healthcare settings and compared based on the type of chronic disease. For cirrhosis, the results were further stratified by etiology and decompensation status.

RESULTS

Total direct healthcare spending from 2007 to 2016 increased by 84% for cirrhosis, 50% for IBD, and 41% for asthma. On a per-patient basis, annual costs were the highest for cirrhosis ($6,581/year) compared to IBD ($5,260/year), and asthma ($2,934/year) driven by acute care in cirrhosis and asthma, and drug costs in IBD. Annual costs were four-fold higher in patients with decompensated versus compensated cirrhosis ($20,651/year vs. $5,280/year). Patients with cirrhosis had greater use of both ICU and mental health services.

CONCLUSION

Healthcare costs in young adults with cirrhosis are rising and driven by the use of acute care. Strategies to prevent the development of cirrhosis and to coordinate healthcare in this population through the development of chronic disease prevention and management strategies are urgently needed.

From MAFLD to hepatocellular carcinoma and everything in between

Metabolic (dysfunction) associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is the most common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Many risk factors contribute to the pathogenesis of MAFLD with metabolic dysregulation being the final arbiter of its development and progression. MAFLD poses a substantial economic burden to societies, which based on current trends is expected to increase over time. Numerous studies have addressed various aspects of MAFLD from its risk associations to its economic and social burden and clinical diagnosis and management, as well as the molecular mechanisms linking MAFLD to end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. This review summarizes current understanding of the pathogenesis of MAFLD and related diseases, particularly liver cancer. Potential therapeutic agents for MAFLD and diagnostic biomarkers are discussed.

Current considerations for clinical management and care of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Insights from the 1st International Workshop of the Canadian NASH Network (CanNASH)

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 8 million Canadians. NAFLD refers to a disease spectrum ranging from bland steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Nearly 25% of patients with NAFLD develop NASH, which can progress to liver cirrhosis and related end-stage complications. Type 2 diabetes and obesity represent the main risk factors for the disease. The Canadian NASH Network is a national collaborative organization of health care professionals and researchers with a primary interest in enhancing understanding, care, education, and research around NAFLD, with a vision of best practices for this disease state. At the 1st International Workshop of the CanNASH network in April 2021, a joint event with the single topic conference of the Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver (CASL), clinicians, epidemiologists, basic scientists, and community members came together to share their work under the theme of NASH. This symposium also marked the initiation of collaborations between Canadian and other key opinion leaders in the field representative of international liver associations. The main objective is to develop a policy framework that outlines specific targets, suggested activities, and evidence-based best practices to guide provincial, territorial, and federal organizations in developing multidisciplinary models of care and strategies to address this epidemic.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Filipino North American patients: Results from a multi-ethnic cohort

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is more prevalent in certain ethnicities due to a combination of genetic, environmental, and metabolic factors. North American Filipino populations may have lifestyle and metabolic risk factors for NAFLD; however, the prevalence of NAFLD in this group is unknown. We sought to determine whether Filipino patients are over-represented in a multi-ethnic NAFLD cohort and describe their clinical presentation, primarily compared to other ethnicities in the same geographical region and secondarily compared to Manila-based Filipino patients.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted with patients with NAFLD who were followed at the Hepatology Clinic at Vancouver General Hospital, Canada, from January 2015 to August 2018. Data were extracted for clinicodemographic data, ethnicity, anthropometric measures, blood work, and transient elastography (TE). External comparison data was obtained online from the Metro Vancouver census and a NAFLD study conducted in Manila, Philippines.

RESULTS

Of 317 patients meeting inclusion criteria for the study, 224 patients had complete datasets. The mean age was 51.1 years, and 50% were female. There were 139 (62%) Caucasian and other ethnicity patients, 55 (25%) Asian patients, and 30 (13%) Filipino patients. Compared to other ethnic groups, the Filipino group had similar clinical characteristics, including NAFLD fibrosis scores and TE. Of included NAFLD patients, the proportion of Filipino patients (13.39%) was significantly greater than the proportion of Filipino residents in Metro Vancouver (5.52%, p <0.01). Our Filipino Canadians seemed to be younger, with fewer females and a lower proportion of diabetes mellitus, but a higher proportion of hypertension than the previously reported cohort from Manila.

CONCLUSIONS

While Filipino patients have not previously been examined in multi-ethnic NAFLD studies, they may represent a high-risk population. Further research is needed to clarify the prevalence and presentation of NAFLD in Filipino Canadian patients, as this appears to be a significant health issue in this community.

Cost-effectiveness of obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: An early economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Currently, there are no pharmacological options available for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In the 18-month interim analysis of an ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (REGENERATE), early results demonstrated that obeticholic acid (OCA) 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis with no worsening of NASH among patients with NASH and fibrosis compared with placebo (PBO). This study aimed to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of OCA compared with PBO in NASH patients.

METHODS

A state-transition model was developed to perform a cost-utility analysis comparing two treatment strategies, PBO and OCA 25 mg, from a Canadian public payer perspective. The model time horizon was lifetime with annual cycle lengths. Cost and utility parameters were discounted at 1.5% annually. The efficacy data were obtained from the REGENERATE trial, and costs and utilities were derived from other published literature. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Treatment with OCA led to reductions of 3.58% in decompensated cirrhosis cases, 3.95% in hepatocellular carcinoma, 7.88% in liver transplant, and 6.01% in liver-related death. However, at an annual price of CAD $36,000, OCA failed to be cost-effective compared with PBO at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $815,514 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). An 88% reduction in drug price to an annual cost of $4,300 would make OCA cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

OCA failed to be cost-effective compared with PBO, despite demonstrating clinical benefits due to a high drug cost. A significant price reduction would be needed to make the drug cost-effective.

Trends in the Economic Burden of Chronic Liver Diseases and Cirrhosis in the United States: 1996-2016

INTRODUCTION

The management of chronic liver diseases (CLDs) and cirrhosis is associated with substantial healthcare costs. We aimed to estimate trends in national healthcare spending for patients with CLDs or cirrhosis between 1996 and 2016 in the United States.

METHODS

National-level healthcare expenditure data developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations for the Disease Expenditure Project and prevalence of CLDs and cirrhosis derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study were used to estimate temporal trends in inflation-adjusted US healthcare spending, stratified by setting of care (ambulatory, inpatient, emergency department, and nursing care). Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate temporal trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Drivers of change in spending for ambulatory and inpatient services were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Total expenditures in 2016 were $32.5 billion (95% CI, $27.0-$40.4 billion). Over 65% of spending was for inpatient or emergency department care. From 1996 to 2016, there was a 4.3%/year (95% CI, 2.8%-5.8%) increase in overall healthcare spending for patients with CLDs or cirrhosis, driven by a 17.8%/year (95% CI, 14.5%-21.6%) increase in price and intensity of hospital-based services. Total healthcare spending per patient with CLDs or cirrhosis began decreasing after 2008 (APC -1.7% [95% CI, -2.1% to -1.2%]), primarily because of reductions in ambulatory care spending (APC -9.1% [95% CI, -10.7% to -7.5%] after 2011).

DISCUSSION

Healthcare expenditures for CLDs or cirrhosis are substantial in the United States, driven disproportionately by acute care in-hospital spending.

Internal medicine hospitalisations and liver disease: a comparative disease burden analysis of a multicentre cohort

BACKGROUND

Liver disease is an increasing burden on population health globally.

AIMS

To characterise burden of liver disease among general internal medicine inpatients at seven Toronto-area hospitals and compare it to other common medical conditions.

METHODS

Data from April 2010 to October 2017 were obtained from hospitals participating in the GEMINI collaborative. Using these cohort data from hospital information systems linked to administrative data, we defined liver disease admissions using most responsible discharge diagnoses categorised according to international classification of diseases, 10th Revision-enhanced Canadian version (ICD-10-CA). We identified admissions for heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pneumonia as comparators. We calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths.

RESULTS

Among 239 018 discharges, liver disease accounted for 1.7% of most responsible discharge diagnoses. Liver disease was associated with marked premature mortality, with SMR of 8.84 (95% CI 8.06-9.67) compared to 1.06 (95% CI 0.99-1.12) for heart failure, 1.05 (95% CI 0.96-1.15) for COPD and 1.28 (95% CI 1.20-1.37) for pneumonia. The majority of deaths were among patients younger than 65 years (57.7%) compared to 3.3% in heart failure, 5.6% in COPD and 10.7% in pneumonia. Liver disease patients presented with worse Laboratory-Based Acute Physiology Scores, were more frequently admitted to the intensive care unit (14.4%), incurred higher average total costs (median $6723 CAD), had higher in-hospital mortality (11.4%), and were more likely to be a readmission from 30 days prior (19.8%). Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease admissions increased from 120 in 2011-2012 to 215 in 2016-2017 (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In Canada's largest urban centre, liver disease admissions resulted in premature morbidity and mortality with higher resource use compared to common cardio-respiratory conditions. Re-evaluation of approaches to caring for inpatients with liver disease is timely and justified.

Non-invasive diagnosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

Liver disease has emerged as a significant cause of death in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Due to a common underlying pathogenic mechanism, namely insulin resistance, T2D represents the main risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), characterized by a buildup of fat in the liver. Globally, NAFLD is the most common liver disease, affecting a quarter of the general adult population. The development of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) signifies an increased risk of liver fibrosis progression that can result in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and death. Liver fibrosis progression and development of cirrhosis is mostly asymptomatic until complications from decompensated end-stage liver disease arise. Traditionally, liver biopsy is used to diagnose NASH and stage fibrosis, however, it is invasive and costly. Non-invasive diagnostic alternatives include serum biomarkers and imaging techniques. Early identification of advanced liver fibrosis is pivotal to prompt initiation of targeted surveillance, including screening for HCC, as well as providing options for current and investigational therapeutic interventions to reduce fibrosis progression. This review gives an update on non-invasive diagnostic tools for NAFLD and liver fibrosis in the specific context of T2D, providing clinicians a pragmatic diagnostic approach to this frequent comorbidity in diabetes medicine.

Modelling the cost effectiveness of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk stratification strategies in the community setting

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent worldwide. Identifying high-risk patients is critical to best utilize limited health care resources. We established a community-based care pathway using 2D ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) to identify high risk patients with NAFLD. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of various non-invasive strategies to correctly identify high-risk patients.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was created using a payer's perspective for a hypothetical patient with NAFLD. FIB-4 [≥1.3], NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) [≥-1.455], SWE [≥8 kPa], transient elastography (TE) [≥8 kPa], and sequential strategies with FIB-4 or NFS followed by either SWE or TE were compared to identify patients with either significant (≥F2) or advanced fibrosis (≥F3). Model inputs were obtained from local data and published literature. The cost/correct diagnosis of advanced NAFLD was obtained and univariate sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

For ≥F2 fibrosis, FIB-4/SWE cost $148.75/correct diagnosis while SWE cost $276.42/correct diagnosis, identifying 84% of patients correctly. For ≥F3 fibrosis, using FIB-4/SWE correctly identified 92% of diagnoses and dominated all other strategies. The ranking of strategies was unchanged when stratified by normal or abnormal ALT. For ≥F3 fibrosis, the cost/correct diagnosis was less in the normal ALT group.

CONCLUSIONS

SWE based strategies were the most cost effective for diagnosing ≥F2 fibrosis. For ≥F3 fibrosis, FIB-4 followed by SWE was the most effective and least costly strategy. Further evaluation of the timing of repeating non-invasive strategies are required to enhance the cost-effective management of NAFLD.

The prevalence of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease in the Turkish population: A multicenter study

Background and Aim

The objective of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in patients with dyspepsia.

Materials and Methods

A total of 909 consecutive patients who presented with dyspepsia at 8 tertiary care centers in Turkey between March 2019 and December 2019 were included.

Results

The median age was 47 years. Among them, 30.3% of the patients were obese, 18.8% had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), 35.1% had metabolic syndrome, 84.8% had dyslipidemia, and 23.9% had hypertension. The prevalence of MAFLD was 45.5%. Among the patients with MAFLD, the prevalence of obesity, T2DM, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and hypertension was 43.3%, 24.9%, 52.5%, 92.3%, and 31.9%, respectively. MAFLD was significantly associated with all of the metabolic comorbidities (p<0.001). The median Fibrosis-4 Index score of the MAFLD patients was 0.88 (range: 0.1-9.5). Of note, 53 patients with hepatic steatosis did not meet the MAFLD criteria.

Conclusion

The results of the present study indicated that there was a significantly high prevalence of MAFLD observed in daily clinical practice in Turkey. Early diagnosis and prevention efforts should be implemented to reduce disease progression, and a region-based strategy is recommended.

A Canadian survey on knowledge of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among physicians

BACKGROUND

In Canada, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most frequently occurring liver disease, affecting one in four Canadians. NAFLD can in turn evolve into non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and cirrhosis. No study in Canada has investigated knowledge of NAFLD among physicians.

METHODS

Primary care physicians (PCPs); specialists in internal medicine, gastroenterology, and hepatology; and hepatology nurses who were members of the College of Family Physicians of Canada, Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver, or Canadian Association of Hepatology Nurses were invited to participate in this web-based survey.

RESULTS

Of 650 invited physicians and nurses, 214 (33%) responded and 171 (26%) completed the whole survey. Overall, 51% of the respondents were PCPs, 38% were specialists, and 11% were nurses. Of these, 58% of PCPs, 28% of specialists, and 39% of nurses responded that they were only somewhat familiar or unfamiliar with NAFLD. Moreover, 53% of PCPs, 20% of specialists, and 35% of nurses thought the prevalence of NAFLD in Canada was 15% or less. Also, 42% of respondents thought that NASH could be diagnosed by imaging or blood tests. Finally, more than 40% of PCPs, 22% of specialists, and 33% of nurses thought that metformin and statin were treatments for NASH.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey shows that a significant proportion of Canadian physicians and nurses managing patients with NAFLD are not very familiar with the disease. This study emphasizes the need for further provider education, national practice guidelines, and improved treatment options.

Global epidemiology of NAFLD-related HCC: trends, predictions, risk factors and prevention

One quarter of the global population is estimated to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The incidence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is projected to increase by up to 56% in the next 10 years. NAFLD is already the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA, France and the UK. Globally, the prevalence of NAFLD-related HCC is likely to increase concomitantly with the growing obesity epidemic. The estimated annual incidence of HCC ranges from 0.5% to 2.6% among patients with NASH cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC among patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD is lower, approximately 0.1 to 1.3 per 1,000 patient-years. Although the incidence of NAFLD-related HCC is lower than that of HCC of other aetiologies such as hepatitis C, more people have NAFLD than other liver diseases. Urgent measures that increase global awareness and tackle the metabolic risk factors are necessary to reduce the impending burden of NAFLD-related HCC. Emerging evidence indicates that reduced immune surveillance, increased gut inflammation and gut dysbiosis are potential key steps in tumorigenesis. In this Review, we discuss the global epidemiology, projections and risk factors for NAFLD-related HCC, and propose preventive strategies to tackle this growing problem.

Economic burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis with significant fibrosis in Thailand

Background

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has been recognised as a significant form of chronic liver disease and a common cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, resulting in a considerable financial burden on healthcare resources. Currently, there is no information regarding the economic burden of NASH in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of NASH in Thailand as a lesson learned for LMICs.

Methods

To estimate the healthcare costs and prevalence of NASH with significant fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥ 2) in the general Thai population, an eleven-state lifetime horizon Markov model with 1-year cycle length was performed. The model comprised Thai population aged 18 years and older. The cohort size was based on Thailand Official Statistic Registration Systems. The incidence of NASH, transitional probabilities, and costs-of-illness were based on previously published literature, including systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The age-specific prevalence of NASH was based on Thai NASH registry data. Costs were expressed in 2019 US Dollars ($). As we undertook analysis from the payer perspective, only direct medical costs were included. All future costs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

The estimated total number of patients with significant NASH was 2.9 million cases in 2019, based on a NASH prevalence of 5.74%. The total lifetime cost of significant NASH was $15.2 billion ($5,147 per case), representing approximately 3% of the 2019 GDP of Thailand. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the lifetime costs of significant NASH varied from $11.4 billion to $18.2 billion.

Conclusions

The economic burden associated with NASH is substantial in Thailand. This prompts clinicians and policy makers to consider strategies for NASH prevention and management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01720-w.

A systematic review on pharmacokinetics, cardiovascular outcomes and safety profiles of statins in cirrhosis

Background/Aims

There is increased interest in the therapeutic use of statins in cirrhosis, but preferred statin and safety outcomes are still not well known. In this systematic review we aimed to address pharmacokinetics (PK), safety, and effects on cardiovascular (CV) outcomes of statins in cirrhosis.

Methods

Our systematic search in several electronic databases and repositories of two regulatory bodies up to 2020-06-11 yielded 22 articles and 2 drug monographs with relevant data.

Results

Rosuvastatin and pitavastatin showed minimal PK changes in Child–Pugh A cirrhosis. Only rosuvastatin was assessed in a repeated dosing PK study. Atorvastatin showed pronounced PK changes in cirrhosis. No PK data was found for simvastatin, the most commonly used statin in cirrhosis trials. There was insufficient data to assess CV effects of statins in cirrhosis. Clinical trials in cirrhosis were limited to simvastatin, atorvastatin, and pravastatin. In patients taking simvastatin 40 mg, pooled frequency of rhabdomyolysis was 2%, an incidence 40-fold higher than that reported in non-cirrhosis patients, while this was no rhabdomyolysis observed in patients on simvastatin 20 mg, atorvastatin 20 mg, or pravastatin 40 mg. Drug-induced liver injury was of difficult interpretation due to co-existence of muscle damage. No overt liver failure was reported.

Conclusions

Simvastatin 40 mg should be avoided in decompensated cirrhosis. Safety data on simvastatin 20 mg or other statins are based on small study sample size. This rarity of evidence combined with lack of data in dose adjustment methods in cirrhosis is a barrier for using statins for CV indications or for investigational use for liver indications.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01704-w.

Non-immunotherapy options for the first-line management of hepatocellular carcinoma: exploring the evolving role of sorafenib and lenvatinib in advanced disease

The results of the sharp trial established sorafenib, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (tki), as the sole first-line treatment option in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (hcc) for more than a decade. In 2020, there has been a surge in new therapies for hcc, including immunotherapeutic strategies and the approval of a number of novel tkis. In addition to sorafenib, lenvatinib and combination atezolizumab-bevacizumab now represent standard first-line treatment options. As those systemic therapy options begin to be better utilized, assurance of adequate liver function and optimal timing are required to improve patient outcomes. Furthermore, sequencing of the agents will have to be carefully tailored, given the increasing armamentarium of choices. Here, we discuss the role of lenvatinib and sorafenib in the first-line management of hcc.