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Mathieson I, Day FR, Barban N, Tropf FC, Brazel DM, Vaez A, van Zuydam N, Bitarello BD, Gardner EJ, Akimova ET, Azad A, Bergmann S, Bielak LF, Boomsma DI, Bosak K, Brumat M, Buring JE, Cesarini D, Chasman DI, Chavarro JE, Cocca M, Concas MP, Davey Smith G, Davies G, Deary IJ, Esko T, Faul JD, Franco O, Ganna A, Gaskins AJ, Gelemanovic A, de Geus EJC, Gieger C, Girotto G, Gopinath B, Grabe HJ, Gunderson EP, Hayward C, He C, van Heemst D, Hill WD, Hoffmann ER, Homuth G, Hottenga JJ, Huang H, Hyppӧnen E, Ikram MA, Jansen R, Johannesson M, Kamali Z, Kardia SLR, Kavousi M, Kifley A, Kiiskinen T, Kraft P, Kühnel B, Langenberg C, Liew G, Lind PA, Luan J, Mägi R, Magnusson PKE, Mahajan A, Martin NG, Mbarek H, McCarthy MI, McMahon G, Medland SE, Meitinger T, Metspalu A, Mihailov E, Milani L, Missmer SA, Mitchell P, Møllegaard S, Mook-Kanamori DO, Morgan A, van der Most PJ, de Mutsert R, Nauck M, Nolte IM, Noordam R, Penninx BWJH, Peters A, Peyser PA, Polašek O, Power C, Pribisalic A, Redmond P, Rich-Edwards JW, Ridker PM, Rietveld CA, Ring SM, Rose LM, Rueedi R, Shukla V, Smith JA, Stankovic S, Stefánsson K, Stöckl D, Strauch K, Swertz MA, Teumer A, Thorleifsson G, Thorsteinsdottir U, Thurik AR, Timpson NJ, Turman C, Uitterlinden AG, Waldenberger M, Wareham NJ, Weir DR, Willemsen G, Zhao JH, Zhao W, Zhao Y, Snieder H, den Hoed M, Ong KK, Mills MC, Perry JRB. Genome-wide analysis identifies genetic effects on reproductive success and ongoing natural selection at the FADS locus. Nat Hum Behav 2023; 7:790-801. [PMID: 36864135 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01528-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/04/2023]
Abstract
Identifying genetic determinants of reproductive success may highlight mechanisms underlying fertility and identify alleles under present-day selection. Using data in 785,604 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 43 genomic loci associated with either number of children ever born (NEB) or childlessness. These loci span diverse aspects of reproductive biology, including puberty timing, age at first birth, sex hormone regulation, endometriosis and age at menopause. Missense variants in ARHGAP27 were associated with higher NEB but shorter reproductive lifespan, suggesting a trade-off at this locus between reproductive ageing and intensity. Other genes implicated by coding variants include PIK3IP1, ZFP82 and LRP4, and our results suggest a new role for the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) in reproductive biology. As NEB is one component of evolutionary fitness, our identified associations indicate loci under present-day natural selection. Integration with data from historical selection scans highlighted an allele in the FADS1/2 gene locus that has been under selection for thousands of years and remains so today. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that a broad range of biological mechanisms contribute to reproductive success.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iain Mathieson
- Department of Genetics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
| | - Felix R Day
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nicola Barban
- Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Felix C Tropf
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- École Nationale de la Statistique et de L'administration Économique (ENSAE), Paris, France
- Center for Research in Economics and Statistics (CREST), Paris, France
| | - David M Brazel
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ahmad Vaez
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
- Department of Bioinformatics, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Natalie van Zuydam
- Beijer Laboratory and Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University and SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Bárbara D Bitarello
- Department of Genetics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Eugene J Gardner
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Evelina T Akimova
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ajuna Azad
- DNRF Center for Chromosome Stability, Department of Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sven Bergmann
- Department of Computational Biology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Integrative Biomedical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Lawrence F Bielak
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Dorret I Boomsma
- Department of Biological Psychology, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Amsterdam Reproduction and Development (AR&D) Research Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - Marco Brumat
- Department of Medical, Surgical and Health Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
| | - Julie E Buring
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - David Cesarini
- Department of Economics, New York University, New York, NY, USA
- Research Institute for Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Daniel I Chasman
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jorge E Chavarro
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Massimiliano Cocca
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo', Trieste, Italy
| | - Maria Pina Concas
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo', Trieste, Italy
| | | | - Gail Davies
- Lothian Birth Cohorts, Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ian J Deary
- Lothian Birth Cohorts, Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Tõnu Esko
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Broad Institute of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Jessica D Faul
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Oscar Franco
- Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Andrea Ganna
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Analytic and Translational Genetics Unit, Center for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Audrey J Gaskins
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Eco J C de Geus
- Department of Biological Psychology, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Christian Gieger
- Research Unit of Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Giorgia Girotto
- Department of Medical, Surgical and Health Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo', Trieste, Italy
| | - Bamini Gopinath
- Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research and Department of Ophthalmology, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Hans Jörgen Grabe
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Erica P Gunderson
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA
| | - Caroline Hayward
- Medical Research Council Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Chunyan He
- Markey Cancer Center, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Medical Oncology, University of Kentucky College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA
| | - Diana van Heemst
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - W David Hill
- Lothian Birth Cohorts, Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Eva R Hoffmann
- DNRF Center for Chromosome Stability, Department of Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Georg Homuth
- Interfaculty Institute for Genetics and Functional Genomics, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Jouke Jan Hottenga
- Department of Biological Psychology, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Hongyang Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Elina Hyppӧnen
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia Cancer Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - M Arfan Ikram
- Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Rick Jansen
- Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam Public Health and Amsterdam Neuroscience, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Magnus Johannesson
- Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Zoha Kamali
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
- Department of Bioinformatics, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Sharon L R Kardia
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Maryam Kavousi
- Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Annette Kifley
- Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research and Department of Ophthalmology, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Tuomo Kiiskinen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Peter Kraft
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Brigitte Kühnel
- Research Unit of Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Claudia Langenberg
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Gerald Liew
- Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research and Department of Ophthalmology, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Penelope A Lind
- Psychiatric Genetics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jian'an Luan
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Reedik Mägi
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Patrik K E Magnusson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anubha Mahajan
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Nicholas G Martin
- Genetic Epidemiology, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hamdi Mbarek
- Department of Biological Psychology, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mark I McCarthy
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - George McMahon
- School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Sarah E Medland
- Psychiatric Genetics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Thomas Meitinger
- Institute of Human Genetics, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Andres Metspalu
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Institute of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | | | - Lili Milani
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Stacey A Missmer
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Division of Adolescent and Young Adult Medicine, Department of Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Biology, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, Grand Rapids, MI, USA
| | - Paul Mitchell
- Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research and Department of Ophthalmology, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Stine Møllegaard
- Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Dennis O Mook-Kanamori
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Anna Morgan
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo', Trieste, Italy
| | - Peter J van der Most
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Renée de Mutsert
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Matthias Nauck
- Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Ilja M Nolte
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Raymond Noordam
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Brenda W J H Penninx
- Department of Psychiatry, EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, VU University Medical Center/GGZ inGeest, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Patricia A Peyser
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Ozren Polašek
- University of Split School of Medicine, Split, Croatia
- Algebra University College, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Chris Power
- Population, Policy and Practice Research and Teaching Department, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, London, UK
| | | | - Paul Redmond
- Lothian Birth Cohorts, Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Janet W Rich-Edwards
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Division of Women's Health, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul M Ridker
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Cornelius A Rietveld
- Erasmus University Rotterdam Institute for Behavior and Biology, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Applied Economics, Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Susan M Ring
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - Rico Rueedi
- Department of Computational Biology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Vallari Shukla
- DNRF Center for Chromosome Stability, Department of Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jennifer A Smith
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Stasa Stankovic
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Doris Stöckl
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Konstantin Strauch
- Institute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics (IMBEI), University Medical Center, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
- Institute of Genetic Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Chair of Genetic Epidemiology, IBE, Faculty of Medicine, LMU, Munich, Germany
| | - Morris A Swertz
- Department of Genetics, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Alexander Teumer
- Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | | | | | - A Roy Thurik
- Erasmus University Rotterdam Institute for Behavior and Biology, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Applied Economics, Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Constance Turman
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - André G Uitterlinden
- Erasmus University Rotterdam Institute for Behavior and Biology, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Melanie Waldenberger
- Research Unit of Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Nicholas J Wareham
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - David R Weir
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Gonneke Willemsen
- Department of Biological Psychology, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Jing Hau Zhao
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Wei Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Yajie Zhao
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Harold Snieder
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Marcel den Hoed
- Beijer Laboratory and Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University and SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Ken K Ong
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Department of Genetics, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
- Department of Economics, Econometrics and Finance, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
| | - John R B Perry
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE COVID-19 related measures have impacted sleep on a global level. We examine changes in sleep problems and duration focusing on gender differentials. DESIGN Cross-sectional analyses using two nationally representative surveys collected during the first and second month after the 2020 lockdown in the UK. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Participants (age 17 years and above) from the first wave of the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study are linked to the most recent wave before the pandemic completed during 2018 and 2019 (n=14 073). COVID-19 Survey Data was collected from 2 to 31 May 2020 (n=8547) with participants drawn from five nationally representative cohort studies in the UK. ANALYSIS We conducted bivariate analyses to examine gender gaps in change in sleep problems and change in sleep duration overall and by other predictors. A series of multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were estimated to explore predictors of change in sleep problems and change in sleep time. RESULTS People in the UK on average experienced an increase in sleep loss during the first 4 weeks of the lockdown (mean=0.13, SD=0.9). Women report more sleep loss than men (coefficient=0.15, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.19). Daily sleep duration on average increased by ten minutes (mean=-0.16, SD=1.11), with men gaining eight more minutes of sleep per day than women (coefficient=0.13, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.17). CONCLUSION The COVID-19 related measures amplified traditional gender roles. Men's sleep was more affected by changes in their financial situation and employment status related to the crisis, with women more influenced by their emotional reaction to the pandemic, feeling anxious and spending more time on family duties such as home schooling, unpaid domestic duties, nurturing and caregiving. Based on our findings, we provide policy advice of early, clear and better employment protection coverage of self-employed and precarious workers and employer recognition for parents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuejie Ding
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Mills MC, Tropf FC, Brazel DM, van Zuydam N, Vaez A, Pers TH, Snieder H, Perry JRB, Ong KK, den Hoed M, Barban N, Day FR. Identification of 371 genetic variants for age at first sex and birth linked to externalising behaviour. Nat Hum Behav 2021; 5:1717-1730. [PMID: 34211149 PMCID: PMC7612120 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01135-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Age at first sexual intercourse and age at first birth have implications for health and evolutionary fitness. In this genome-wide association study (age at first sexual intercourse, N = 387,338; age at first birth, N = 542,901), we identify 371 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, 11 sex-specific, with a 5-6% polygenic score prediction. Heritability of age at first birth shifted from 9% [CI = 4-14%] for women born in 1940 to 22% [CI = 19-25%] for those born in 1965. Signals are driven by the genetics of reproductive biology and externalising behaviour, with key genes related to follicle stimulating hormone (FSHB), implantation (ESR1), infertility and spermatid differentiation. Our findings suggest that polycystic ovarian syndrome may lead to later age at first birth, linking with infertility. Late age at first birth is associated with parental longevity and reduced incidence of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Higher childhood socioeconomic circumstances and those in the highest polygenic score decile (90%+) experience markedly later reproductive onset. Results are relevant for improving teenage and late-life health, understanding longevity and guiding experimentation into mechanisms of infertility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
| | - Felix C Tropf
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- École Nationale de la Statistique et de L'administration Économique (ENSAE), Paris, France
- Center for Research in Economics and Statistics (CREST), Paris, France
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Natalie van Zuydam
- The Beijer Laboratory and Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University and SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Vaez
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Bioinformatics, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Tune H Pers
- The Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Harold Snieder
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - John R B Perry
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Ken K Ong
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Marcel den Hoed
- The Beijer Laboratory and Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University and SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Nicola Barban
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Felix R Day
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including wearing face covering/masks, social distancing and working from home, have been introduced to control SARS-CoV-2 infections. We provide individual-level empirical evidence of whether adherence reduces infections. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS The COVID-19 Infection Study (CIS) was used from 10 May 2020 to 2 February 2021 with 409 009 COVID-19 nose and throat swab tests nested in 72 866 households for 100 138 individuals in the labour force aged 18-64. ANALYSIS ORs for a positive COVID-19 test were calculated using multilevel logistic regression models, stratified by sex and time, by an index of autonomy to abide by NPIs, adjusted for various socioeconomic and behavioural covariates. RESULTS Inability to comply with NPIs predicted higher infections when individuals reported not wearing a face covering outside. The main effect for inability to comply was OR 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.92), for wearing face covering/masks was OR 0.29 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.56) and the interaction term being OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.46). The youngest age groups had a significantly higher risk of infection (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.82) as did women in larger households (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Effects varied over time with autonomy to follow NPIs only significant in the pre-second lockdown May-November 2020 period. Wearing a face covering outside was a significant predictor of a lower chance of infection before mid-December 2020 when a stricter second lockdown was implemented (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.73). CONCLUSION The protective effect of wearing a face covering/mask was the strongest for those who were the most unable to comply with NPIs. Higher infection rates were in younger groups and women in large households. Wearing a face covering or mask outside the home consistently and significantly predicted lower infection before the 2020 Christmas period and among women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuejie Ding
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Mills MC, Tropf FC, Brazel DM, van Zuydam N, Vaez A, Pers TH, Snieder H, Perry JRB, Ong KK, den Hoed M, Barban N, Day FR. Publisher Correction: Identification of 371 genetic variants for age at first sex and birth linked to externalising behavior. Nat Hum Behav 2021; 5:1111. [PMID: 34321615 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01179-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. .,Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
| | - Felix C Tropf
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.,Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.,École Nationale de la Statistique et de L'administration Économique (ENSAE), Paris, France.,Center for Research in Economics and Statistics (CREST), Paris, France
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.,Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Natalie van Zuydam
- The Beijer Laboratory and Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University and SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Vaez
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.,Department of Bioinformatics, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Tune H Pers
- The Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Harold Snieder
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - John R B Perry
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Ken K Ong
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Marcel den Hoed
- The Beijer Laboratory and Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University and SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Nicola Barban
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Felix R Day
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
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6
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Akimova ET, Breen R, Brazel DM, Mills MC. Gene-environment dependencies lead to collider bias in models with polygenic scores. Sci Rep 2021; 11:9457. [PMID: 33947934 PMCID: PMC8097011 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-89020-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The application of polygenic scores has transformed our ability to investigate whether and how genetic and environmental factors jointly contribute to the variation of complex traits. Modelling the complex interplay between genes and environment, however, raises serious methodological challenges. Here we illustrate the largely unrecognised impact of gene-environment dependencies on the identification of the effects of genes and their variation across environments. We show that controlling for heritable covariates in regression models that include polygenic scores as independent variables introduces endogenous selection bias when one or more of these covariates depends on unmeasured factors that also affect the outcome. This results in the problem of conditioning on a collider, which in turn leads to spurious associations and effect sizes. Using graphical and simulation methods we demonstrate that the degree of bias depends on the strength of the gene-covariate correlation and of hidden heterogeneity linking covariates with outcomes, regardless of whether the main analytic focus is mediation, confounding, or gene × covariate (commonly gene × environment) interactions. We offer potential solutions, highlighting the importance of causal inference. We also urge further caution when fitting and interpreting models with polygenic scores and non-exogenous environments or phenotypes and demonstrate how spurious associations are likely to arise, advancing our understanding of such results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evelina T Akimova
- Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK. .,Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.
| | - Richard Breen
- Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.,Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.,Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK.,Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK
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7
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Erzurumluoglu AM, Liu M, Jackson VE, Barnes DR, Datta G, Melbourne CA, Young R, Batini C, Surendran P, Jiang T, Adnan SD, Afaq S, Agrawal A, Altmaier E, Antoniou AC, Asselbergs FW, Baumbach C, Bierut L, Bertelsen S, Boehnke M, Bots ML, Brazel DM, Chambers JC, Chang-Claude J, Chen C, Corley J, Chou YL, David SP, de Boer RA, de Leeuw CA, Dennis JG, Dominiczak AF, Dunning AM, Easton DF, Eaton C, Elliott P, Evangelou E, Faul JD, Foroud T, Goate A, Gong J, Grabe HJ, Haessler J, Haiman C, Hallmans G, Hammerschlag AR, Harris SE, Hattersley A, Heath A, Hsu C, Iacono WG, Kanoni S, Kapoor M, Kaprio J, Kardia SL, Karpe F, Kontto J, Kooner JS, Kooperberg C, Kuulasmaa K, Laakso M, Lai D, Langenberg C, Le N, Lettre G, Loukola A, Luan J, Madden PAF, Mangino M, Marioni RE, Marouli E, Marten J, Martin NG, McGue M, Michailidou K, Mihailov E, Moayyeri A, Moitry M, Müller-Nurasyid M, Naheed A, Nauck M, Neville MJ, Nielsen SF, North K, Perola M, Pharoah PDP, Pistis G, Polderman TJ, Posthuma D, Poulter N, Qaiser B, Rasheed A, Reiner A, Renström F, Rice J, Rohde R, Rolandsson O, Samani NJ, Samuel M, Schlessinger D, Scholte SH, Scott RA, Sever P, Shao Y, Shrine N, Smith JA, Starr JM, Stirrups K, Stram D, Stringham HM, Tachmazidou I, Tardif JC, Thompson DJ, Tindle HA, Tragante V, Trompet S, Turcot V, Tyrrell J, Vaartjes I, van der Leij AR, van der Meer P, Varga TV, Verweij N, Völzke H, Wareham NJ, Warren HR, Weir DR, Weiss S, Wetherill L, Yaghootkar H, Yavas E, Jiang Y, Chen F, Zhan X, Zhang W, Zhao W, Zhao W, Zhou K, Amouyel P, Blankenberg S, Caulfield MJ, Chowdhury R, Cucca F, Deary IJ, Deloukas P, Di Angelantonio E, Ferrario M, Ferrières J, Franks PW, Frayling TM, Frossard P, Hall IP, Hayward C, Jansson JH, Jukema JW, Kee F, Männistö S, Metspalu A, Munroe PB, Nordestgaard BG, Palmer CNA, Salomaa V, Sattar N, Spector T, Strachan DP, van der Harst P, Zeggini E, Saleheen D, Butterworth AS, Wain LV, Abecasis GR, Danesh J, Tobin MD, Vrieze S, Liu DJ, Howson JMM. Meta-analysis of up to 622,409 individuals identifies 40 novel smoking behaviour associated genetic loci. Mol Psychiatry 2020; 25:2392-2409. [PMID: 30617275 PMCID: PMC7515840 DOI: 10.1038/s41380-018-0313-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2018] [Revised: 09/30/2018] [Accepted: 11/14/2018] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Smoking is a major heritable and modifiable risk factor for many diseases, including cancer, common respiratory disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Fourteen genetic loci have previously been associated with smoking behaviour-related traits. We tested up to 235,116 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) on the exome-array for association with smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, pack-years, and smoking cessation in a fixed effects meta-analysis of up to 61 studies (up to 346,813 participants). In a subset of 112,811 participants, a further one million SNVs were also genotyped and tested for association with the four smoking behaviour traits. SNV-trait associations with P < 5 × 10-8 in either analysis were taken forward for replication in up to 275,596 independent participants from UK Biobank. Lastly, a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication studies was performed. Sixteen SNVs were associated with at least one of the smoking behaviour traits (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery samples. Ten novel SNVs, including rs12616219 near TMEM182, were followed-up and five of them (rs462779 in REV3L, rs12780116 in CNNM2, rs1190736 in GPR101, rs11539157 in PJA1, and rs12616219 near TMEM182) replicated at a Bonferroni significance threshold (P < 4.5 × 10-3) with consistent direction of effect. A further 35 SNVs were associated with smoking behaviour traits in the discovery plus replication meta-analysis (up to 622,409 participants) including a rare SNV, rs150493199, in CCDC141 and two low-frequency SNVs in CEP350 and HDGFRP2. Functional follow-up implied that decreased expression of REV3L may lower the probability of smoking initiation. The novel loci will facilitate understanding the genetic aetiology of smoking behaviour and may lead to the identification of potential drug targets for smoking prevention and/or cessation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mengzhen Liu
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Victoria E Jackson
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- Population Health and Immunity Division, The Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, 1G Royal Pde, 3052, Parkville, Australia
- Department of Medical Biology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, Australia
| | - Daniel R Barnes
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Gargi Datta
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Carl A Melbourne
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Robin Young
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Chiara Batini
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Praveen Surendran
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Tao Jiang
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Sheikh Daud Adnan
- National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Saima Afaq
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Arpana Agrawal
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Elisabeth Altmaier
- Research Unit of Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Antonis C Antoniou
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Folkert W Asselbergs
- Department of Cardiology, Division Heart & Lungs, University Medical Center Utrecht, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Durrer Center for Cardiovascular Research, Netherlands Heart Institute, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Institute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London, UK
- Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research and Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clemens Baumbach
- Research Unit of Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Laura Bierut
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Sarah Bertelsen
- Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Michael Boehnke
- Department of Biostatistics and Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Michiel L Bots
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, 3508GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Center for Circulatory Health, University Medical Center Utrecht, 3508GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - David M Brazel
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - John C Chambers
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 308232, Singapore
- Department of Cardiology, Ealing Hospital, Middlesex, UB1 3HW, UK
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, W12 0HS, UK
| | - Jenny Chang-Claude
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Cancer Epidemiology Group, University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, University Cancer Centre Hamburg (UCCH), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Chu Chen
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Janie Corley
- Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
- Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
| | - Yi-Ling Chou
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Sean P David
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Rudolf A de Boer
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Christiaan A de Leeuw
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Joe G Dennis
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Anna F Dominiczak
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alison M Dunning
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, Cambridge Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Douglas F Easton
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, Cambridge Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Charles Eaton
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul Elliott
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Imperial College London, London, UK
- UK Dementia Research Institute (UK DRI) at Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Evangelos Evangelou
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK
- Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina Medical School, Ioannina, Greece
| | - Jessica D Faul
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Tatiana Foroud
- Department of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | - Alison Goate
- Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jian Gong
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hans J Grabe
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medicine Greifswald, 17475, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Jeff Haessler
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Christopher Haiman
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
| | - Göran Hallmans
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Nutritional research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Anke R Hammerschlag
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Sarah E Harris
- Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH4 2XU, UK
| | - Andrew Hattersley
- Genetics of Complex Traits, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Andrew Heath
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Chris Hsu
- University of Southern California, California, CA, USA
| | - William G Iacono
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Stavroula Kanoni
- William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- Centre for Genomic Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
| | - Manav Kapoor
- Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jaakko Kaprio
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sharon L Kardia
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Fredrik Karpe
- Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Oxford National Institute for Health Research, Biomedical Research Centre, Churchill Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Jukka Kontto
- Department of Public Health Solutions, National Institute for Health and Welfare, FI-00271, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jaspal S Kooner
- Department of Cardiology, Ealing Hospital, Middlesex, UB1 3HW, UK
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, W12 0HS, UK
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, W12 0NN, UK
| | - Charles Kooperberg
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kari Kuulasmaa
- Department of Public Health Solutions, National Institute for Health and Welfare, FI-00271, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Dongbing Lai
- Department of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | - Claudia Langenberg
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
| | - Nhung Le
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Immunology and Cell Biology, Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, Springfield, IL, USA
| | - Guillaume Lettre
- Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, H1T 1C8, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1J4, Canada
| | - Anu Loukola
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jian'an Luan
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
| | | | - Massimo Mangino
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' Foundation Trust, London, SE1 9RT, UK
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, Kings College London, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - Riccardo E Marioni
- Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH4 2XU, UK
| | - Eirini Marouli
- William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- Centre for Genomic Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
| | - Jonathan Marten
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, MRC Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Matt McGue
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Kyriaki Michailidou
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- Department of Electron Microscopy/Molecular Pathology, The Cyprus Institute of Neurology and Genetics, 1683, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | - Alireza Moayyeri
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marie Moitry
- Department of Epidemiology and Public health, University Hospital of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
| | - Martina Müller-Nurasyid
- Institute of Genetic Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Department of Medicine I, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Munich, Germany
| | - Aliya Naheed
- Initiative for Noncommunicable Diseases, Health Systems and Population Studies Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Matthias Nauck
- Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, 17475, Greifswald, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Greifswald, University Medicine, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Matthew J Neville
- Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Oxford National Institute for Health Research, Biomedical Research Centre, Churchill Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Sune Fallgaard Nielsen
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry Herlev Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Herlev Ringvej 74, DK-2730, Herlev, Denmark
| | - Kari North
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Markus Perola
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Public Health Solutions, National Institute for Health and Welfare, FI-00271, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Paul D P Pharoah
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, Cambridge Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Giorgio Pistis
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Monserrato, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Tinca J Polderman
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Danielle Posthuma
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Department of Clinical Genetics, VU University Medical Centre Amsterdam, Amsterdam Neuroscience, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Neil Poulter
- International Centre for Circulatory Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Beenish Qaiser
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Asif Rasheed
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Alex Reiner
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Frida Renström
- Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Department of Clinical Sciences, Skåne University Hospital, Lund University, SE-214 28, Malmö, Sweden
- Department of Biobank Research, Umeå University, SE-901 87, Umeå, Sweden
| | - John Rice
- Departments of Psychiatry and Mathematics, Washington University St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | | | - Olov Rolandsson
- Department of Public Health & Clinical Medicine, Section for Family Medicine, Umeå universitet, SE, 90185, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nilesh J Samani
- Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, LE3 9QP, UK
| | - Maria Samuel
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - David Schlessinger
- National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Steven H Scholte
- Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam & Amsterdam Brain and Cognition, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Robert A Scott
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
| | - Peter Sever
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, W12 0NN, UK
- International Centre for Circulatory Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Yaming Shao
- University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Nick Shrine
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Jennifer A Smith
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - John M Starr
- Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
- Alzheimer Scotland Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
| | - Kathleen Stirrups
- William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- Department of Haematology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 0PT, UK
| | - Danielle Stram
- Department of Preventative Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Heather M Stringham
- Department of Biostatistics and Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | | | - Jean-Claude Tardif
- Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, H1T 1C8, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1J4, Canada
| | - Deborah J Thompson
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Hilary A Tindle
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Vinicius Tragante
- Department of Cardiology, Division Heart and Lungs, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Stella Trompet
- Department of gerontology and geriatrics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Valerie Turcot
- Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, H1T 1C8, Canada
| | - Jessica Tyrrell
- Genetics of Complex Traits, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Ilonca Vaartjes
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, 3508GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Center for Circulatory Health, University Medical Center Utrecht, 3508GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andries R van der Leij
- Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam & Amsterdam Brain and Cognition, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Peter van der Meer
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Tibor V Varga
- Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Department of Clinical Sciences, Skåne University Hospital, Lund University, SE-214 28, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Niek Verweij
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Program in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, 301 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, 02142, USA
| | - Henry Völzke
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Greifswald, University Medicine, Greifswald, Germany
- Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, 17475, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Nicholas J Wareham
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
| | - Helen R Warren
- Clinical Pharmacology, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- NIHR Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Centre, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
| | - David R Weir
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Stefan Weiss
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Greifswald, University Medicine, Greifswald, Germany
- Interfaculty Institute for Genetics and Functional Genomics, University Medicine and Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, 17475, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Leah Wetherill
- Department of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | - Hanieh Yaghootkar
- Genetics of Complex Traits, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Ersin Yavas
- Department of Neuroscience, Psychology and Behaviour, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, PA, 16802, USA
| | - Yu Jiang
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, PA, USA
| | - Fang Chen
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, PA, USA
| | - Xiaowei Zhan
- Department of Clinical Science, Center for Genetics of Host Defense, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Weihua Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK
- Department of Cardiology, Ealing Hospital, London North West Healthcare NHS Trust, Middlesex, UB1 3HW, UK
| | - Wei Zhao
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, PA, USA
| | - Wei Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Kaixin Zhou
- School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Philippe Amouyel
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Institut Pasteur de Lille, Lille, France
| | - Stefan Blankenberg
- Department of General and Interventional Cardiology, University Heart Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- University Medical Center Hamburg Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Mark J Caulfield
- Clinical Pharmacology, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- NIHR Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Centre, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
| | - Rajiv Chowdhury
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Francesco Cucca
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Monserrato, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Ian J Deary
- Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
- Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9JZ, UK
| | - Panos Deloukas
- Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge, CB10 1SA, UK
- William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- Princess Al-Jawhara Al-Brahim Centre of Excellence in Research of Hereditary Disorders (PACER-HD), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Emanuele Di Angelantonio
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Marco Ferrario
- EPIMED Research Centre, Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Insubria at Varese, Varese, Italy
| | - Jean Ferrières
- Department of Epidemiology, UMR 1027- INSERM, Toulouse University-CHU Toulouse, Toulouse, France
| | - Paul W Franks
- Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Department of Clinical Sciences, Skåne University Hospital, Lund University, SE-214 28, Malmö, Sweden
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
| | - Tim M Frayling
- Genetics of Complex Traits, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Ian P Hall
- Division of Respiratory Medicine and NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Caroline Hayward
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, MRC Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Jan-Håkan Jansson
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Skellefteå Research Unit, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - J Wouter Jukema
- Department of Cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- The Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Frank Kee
- UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health, Queens, University, Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Satu Männistö
- Department of Public Health Solutions, National Institute for Health and Welfare, FI-00271, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Patricia B Munroe
- Clinical Pharmacology, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
- NIHR Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Centre, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK
| | - Børge Grønne Nordestgaard
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry Herlev Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Herlev Ringvej 74, DK-2730, Herlev, Denmark
| | - Colin N A Palmer
- Medical Research Institute, University of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, Dundee, UK
| | - Veikko Salomaa
- Department of Public Health Solutions, National Institute for Health and Welfare, FI-00271, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Naveed Sattar
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Timothy Spector
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, Kings College London, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - David Peter Strachan
- Population Health Research Institute, St George!s, University of London, London, SW17 0RE, UK
| | - Pim van der Harst
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Genetics, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Danish Saleheen
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, PA, USA
- Center for Non-Communicable Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Adam S Butterworth
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Louise V Wain
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Leicester Respiratory Biomedical Research Centre, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK
| | - Goncalo R Abecasis
- Department of Biostatistics and Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - John Danesh
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
- Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge, CB10 1SA, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK
| | - Martin D Tobin
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Leicester Respiratory Biomedical Research Centre, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK
| | - Scott Vrieze
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Dajiang J Liu
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, PA, USA.
| | - Joanna M M Howson
- MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB1 8RN, UK.
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Verhagen MD, Brazel DM, Dowd JB, Kashnitsky I, Mills MC. Forecasting spatial, socioeconomic and demographic variation in COVID-19 health care demand in England and Wales. BMC Med 2020; 18:203. [PMID: 32594909 PMCID: PMC7321716 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01646-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2020] [Accepted: 05/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 poses one of the most profound public health crises for a hundred years. As of mid-May 2020, across the world, almost 300,000 deaths and over 4 million confirmed cases were registered. Reaching over 30,000 deaths by early May, the UK had the highest number of recorded deaths in Europe, second in the world only to the USA. Hospitalization and death from COVID-19 have been linked to demographic and socioeconomic variation. Since this varies strongly by location, there is an urgent need to analyse the mismatch between health care demand and supply at the local level. As lockdown measures ease, reinfection may vary by area, necessitating a real-time tool for local and regional authorities to anticipate demand. METHODS Combining census estimates and hospital capacity data from ONS and NHS at the Administrative Region, Ceremonial County (CC), Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level from England and Wales, we calculate the number of individuals at risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. Combining multiple sources, we produce geospatial risk maps on an online dashboard that dynamically illustrate how the pre-crisis health system capacity matches local variations in hospitalization risk related to age, social deprivation, population density and ethnicity, also adjusting for the overall infection rate and hospital capacity. RESULTS By providing fine-grained estimates of expected hospitalization, we identify areas that face higher disproportionate health care burdens due to COVID-19, with respect to pre-crisis levels of hospital bed capacity. Including additional risks beyond age-composition of the area such as social deprivation, race/ethnic composition and population density offers a further nuanced identification of areas with disproportionate health care demands. CONCLUSIONS Areas face disproportionate risks for COVID-19 hospitalization pressures due to their socioeconomic differences and the demographic composition of their populations. Our flexible online dashboard allows policy-makers and health officials to monitor and evaluate potential health care demand at a granular level as the infection rate and hospital capacity changes throughout the course of this pandemic. This agile knowledge is invaluable to tackle the enormous logistical challenges to re-allocate resources and target susceptible areas for aggressive testing and tracing to mitigate transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark D Verhagen
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, Oxford, UK.
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, Oxford, UK
| | - Jennifer Beam Dowd
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, Oxford, UK
| | - Ilya Kashnitsky
- Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,National Research University Higher School of Economics, Oxford, Russia
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, Oxford, UK.
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9
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Dowd JB, Andriano L, Brazel DM, Rotondi V, Block P, Ding X, Mills MC. Reply to Nepomuceno et al.: A renewed call for detailed social and demographic COVID-19 data from all countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:13884-13885. [PMID: 32576711 PMCID: PMC7321999 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009408117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Beam Dowd
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Liliana Andriano
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Valentina Rotondi
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Per Block
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Xuejie Ding
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
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10
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Dowd JB, Andriano L, Brazel DM, Rotondi V, Block P, Ding X, Liu Y, Mills MC. Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020. [PMID: 32300018 DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.15.20036293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly, how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider the age composition of local and national contexts as well as intergenerational interactions. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted forecasting of hospitalization and critical care needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Beam Dowd
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Liliana Andriano
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Valentina Rotondi
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Per Block
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Xuejie Ding
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Yan Liu
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
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11
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Dowd JB, Andriano L, Brazel DM, Rotondi V, Block P, Ding X, Liu Y, Mills MC. Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:9696-9698. [PMID: 32300018 PMCID: PMC7211934 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004911117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 469] [Impact Index Per Article: 117.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly, how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider the age composition of local and national contexts as well as intergenerational interactions. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted forecasting of hospitalization and critical care needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Beam Dowd
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Liliana Andriano
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - David M Brazel
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Valentina Rotondi
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Per Block
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Xuejie Ding
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Yan Liu
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
| | - Melinda C Mills
- Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
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Brieger K, Zajac GJM, Pandit A, Foerster JR, Li KW, Annis AC, Schmidt EM, Clark CP, McMorrow K, Zhou W, Yang J, Kwong AM, Boughton AP, Wu J, Scheller C, Parikh T, de la Vega A, Brazel DM, Frieser M, Rea-Sandin G, Fritsche LG, Vrieze SI, Abecasis GR. Genes for Good: Engaging the Public in Genetics Research via Social Media. Am J Hum Genet 2019; 105:441-442. [PMID: 31374205 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2019.07.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
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13
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Brieger K, Zajac GJM, Pandit A, Foerster JR, Li KW, Annis AC, Schmidt EM, Clark CP, McMorrow K, Zhou W, Yang J, Kwong AM, Boughton AP, Wu J, Scheller C, Parikh T, de la Vega A, Brazel DM, Frieser M, Rea-Sandin G, Fritsche LG, Vrieze SI, Abecasis GR. Genes for Good: Engaging the Public in Genetics Research via Social Media. Am J Hum Genet 2019; 105:65-77. [PMID: 31204010 PMCID: PMC6612519 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2019.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2018] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The Genes for Good study uses social media to engage a large, diverse participant pool in genetics research and education. Health history and daily tracking surveys are administered through a Facebook application, and participants who complete a minimum number of surveys are mailed a saliva sample kit ("spit kit") to collect DNA for genotyping. As of March 2019, we engaged >80,000 individuals, sent spit kits to >32,000 individuals who met minimum participation requirements, and collected >27,000 spit kits. Participants come from all 50 states and include a diversity of ancestral backgrounds. Rates of important chronic health indicators are consistent with those estimated for the general U.S. population using more traditional study designs. However, our sample is younger and contains a greater percentage of females than the general population. As one means of verifying data quality, we have replicated genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for exemplar traits, such as asthma, diabetes, body mass index (BMI), and pigmentation. The flexible framework of the web application makes it relatively simple to add new questionnaires and for other researchers to collaborate. We anticipate that the study sample will continue to grow and that future analyses may further capitalize on the strengths of the longitudinal data in combination with genetic information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharine Brieger
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Gregory J M Zajac
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Anita Pandit
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
| | - Johanna R Foerster
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Kevin W Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Aubrey C Annis
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Ellen M Schmidt
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA; Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton CB10 1SA, UK
| | - Chris P Clark
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Karly McMorrow
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Wei Zhou
- Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, University of Michigan School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Jingjing Yang
- Department of Human Genetics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - Alan M Kwong
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Andrew P Boughton
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Jinxi Wu
- School of Information, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Chris Scheller
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Tanvi Parikh
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Alejandro de la Vega
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - David M Brazel
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA; Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Maia Frieser
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA; Department of Psychology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Gianna Rea-Sandin
- Department of Psychology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Lars G Fritsche
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Scott I Vrieze
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
| | - Gonçalo R Abecasis
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
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14
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Brazel DM, Jiang Y, Hughey JM, Turcot V, Zhan X, Gong J, Batini C, Weissenkampen JD, Liu M, Barnes DR, Bertelsen S, Chou YL, Erzurumluoglu AM, Faul JD, Haessler J, Hammerschlag AR, Hsu C, Kapoor M, Lai D, Le N, de Leeuw CA, Loukola A, Mangino M, Melbourne CA, Pistis G, Qaiser B, Rohde R, Shao Y, Stringham H, Wetherill L, Zhao W, Agrawal A, Bierut L, Chen C, Eaton CB, Goate A, Haiman C, Heath A, Iacono WG, Martin NG, Polderman TJ, Reiner A, Rice J, Schlessinger D, Scholte HS, Smith JA, Tardif JC, Tindle HA, van der Leij AR, Boehnke M, Chang-Claude J, Cucca F, David SP, Foroud T, Howson JMM, Kardia SLR, Kooperberg C, Laakso M, Lettre G, Madden P, McGue M, North K, Posthuma D, Spector T, Stram D, Tobin MD, Weir DR, Kaprio J, Abecasis GR, Liu DJ, Vrieze S. Exome Chip Meta-analysis Fine Maps Causal Variants and Elucidates the Genetic Architecture of Rare Coding Variants in Smoking and Alcohol Use. Biol Psychiatry 2019; 85:946-955. [PMID: 30679032 PMCID: PMC6534468 DOI: 10.1016/j.biopsych.2018.11.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2017] [Revised: 11/05/2018] [Accepted: 11/29/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Smoking and alcohol use have been associated with common genetic variants in multiple loci. Rare variants within these loci hold promise in the identification of biological mechanisms in substance use. Exome arrays and genotype imputation can now efficiently genotype rare nonsynonymous and loss of function variants. Such variants are expected to have deleterious functional consequences and to contribute to disease risk. METHODS We analyzed ∼250,000 rare variants from 16 independent studies genotyped with exome arrays and augmented this dataset with imputed data from the UK Biobank. Associations were tested for five phenotypes: cigarettes per day, pack-years, smoking initiation, age of smoking initiation, and alcoholic drinks per week. We conducted stratified heritability analyses, single-variant tests, and gene-based burden tests of nonsynonymous/loss-of-function coding variants. We performed a novel fine-mapping analysis to winnow the number of putative causal variants within associated loci. RESULTS Meta-analytic sample sizes ranged from 152,348 to 433,216, depending on the phenotype. Rare coding variation explained 1.1% to 2.2% of phenotypic variance, reflecting 11% to 18% of the total single nucleotide polymorphism heritability of these phenotypes. We identified 171 genome-wide associated loci across all phenotypes. Fine mapping identified putative causal variants with double base-pair resolution at 24 of these loci, and between three and 10 variants for 65 loci. Twenty loci contained rare coding variants in the 95% credible intervals. CONCLUSIONS Rare coding variation significantly contributes to the heritability of smoking and alcohol use. Fine-mapping genome-wide association study loci identifies specific variants contributing to the biological etiology of substance use behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M Brazel
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado; Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
| | - Yu Jiang
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania
| | - Jordan M Hughey
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania
| | - Valérie Turcot
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Xiaowei Zhan
- Department of Clinical Science, Center for Genetics of Host Defense, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, Texas
| | - Jian Gong
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Chiara Batini
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - J Dylan Weissenkampen
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania
| | - MengZhen Liu
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Daniel R Barnes
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Sarah Bertelsen
- Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Yi-Ling Chou
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | | | - Jessica D Faul
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Jeff Haessler
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Anke R Hammerschlag
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Chris Hsu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Manav Kapoor
- Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Dongbing Lai
- Department of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana
| | - Nhung Le
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Immunology and Cell Biology, Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, Springfield, Illinois
| | - Christiaan A de Leeuw
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Anu Loukola
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Massimo Mangino
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, United Kingdom; National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Carl A Melbourne
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Giorgio Pistis
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monserrato, Italy
| | - Beenish Qaiser
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Rebecca Rohde
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Yaming Shao
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Heather Stringham
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Leah Wetherill
- Department of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana
| | - Wei Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Arpana Agrawal
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Laura Bierut
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Chu Chen
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, Head and Neck Surgery Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Charles B Eaton
- Department of Family Medicine, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Alison Goate
- Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Christopher Haiman
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Andrew Heath
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - William G Iacono
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | | | - Tinca J Polderman
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Alex Reiner
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; Department of Epidemiology, Head and Neck Surgery Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - John Rice
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri; Department of Mathematics, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - David Schlessinger
- National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - H Steven Scholte
- Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam Brain and Cognition, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Jennifer A Smith
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Jean-Claude Tardif
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Hilary A Tindle
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Andries R van der Leij
- Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam Brain and Cognition, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Michael Boehnke
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Jenny Chang-Claude
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Francesco Cucca
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monserrato, Italy
| | - Sean P David
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Tatiana Foroud
- Department of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana
| | - Joanna M M Howson
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Sharon L R Kardia
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Charles Kooperberg
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Markku Laakso
- Department of Internal Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Guillaume Lettre
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Pamela Madden
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Matt McGue
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Kari North
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Danielle Posthuma
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Amsterdam Neuroscience, VU University Amsterdam, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Clinical Genetics, VU University Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Timothy Spector
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Stram
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Martin D Tobin
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - David R Weir
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Jaakko Kaprio
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Gonçalo R Abecasis
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Tarrytown, New York; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Dajiang J Liu
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania.
| | - Scott Vrieze
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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15
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Liu M, Jiang Y, Wedow R, Li Y, Brazel DM, Chen F, Datta G, Davila-Velderrain J, McGuire D, Tian C, Zhan X, Choquet H, Docherty AR, Faul JD, Foerster JR, Fritsche LG, Gabrielsen ME, Gordon SD, Haessler J, Hottenga JJ, Huang H, Jang SK, Jansen PR, Ling Y, Mägi R, Matoba N, McMahon G, Mulas A, Orrù V, Palviainen T, Pandit A, Reginsson GW, Skogholt AH, Smith JA, Taylor AE, Turman C, Willemsen G, Young H, Young KA, Zajac GJM, Zhao W, Zhou W, Bjornsdottir G, Boardman JD, Boehnke M, Boomsma DI, Chen C, Cucca F, Davies GE, Eaton CB, Ehringer MA, Esko T, Fiorillo E, Gillespie NA, Gudbjartsson DF, Haller T, Harris KM, Heath AC, Hewitt JK, Hickie IB, Hokanson JE, Hopfer CJ, Hunter DJ, Iacono WG, Johnson EO, Kamatani Y, Kardia SLR, Keller MC, Kellis M, Kooperberg C, Kraft P, Krauter KS, Laakso M, Lind PA, Loukola A, Lutz SM, Madden PAF, Martin NG, McGue M, McQueen MB, Medland SE, Metspalu A, Mohlke KL, Nielsen JB, Okada Y, Peters U, Polderman TJC, Posthuma D, Reiner AP, Rice JP, Rimm E, Rose RJ, Runarsdottir V, Stallings MC, Stančáková A, Stefansson H, Thai KK, Tindle HA, Tyrfingsson T, Wall TL, Weir DR, Weisner C, Whitfield JB, Winsvold BS, Yin J, Zuccolo L, Bierut LJ, Hveem K, Lee JJ, Munafò MR, Saccone NL, Willer CJ, Cornelis MC, David SP, Hinds DA, Jorgenson E, Kaprio J, Stitzel JA, Stefansson K, Thorgeirsson TE, Abecasis G, Liu DJ, Vrieze S. Association studies of up to 1.2 million individuals yield new insights into the genetic etiology of tobacco and alcohol use. Nat Genet 2019; 51:237-244. [PMID: 30643251 PMCID: PMC6358542 DOI: 10.1038/s41588-018-0307-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1006] [Impact Index Per Article: 201.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2018] [Accepted: 11/06/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Tobacco and alcohol use are leading causes of mortality that influence risk for many complex diseases and disorders1. They are heritable2,3 and etiologically related4,5 behaviors that have been resistant to gene discovery efforts6-11. In sample sizes up to 1.2 million individuals, we discovered 566 genetic variants in 406 loci associated with multiple stages of tobacco use (initiation, cessation, and heaviness) as well as alcohol use, with 150 loci evidencing pleiotropic association. Smoking phenotypes were positively genetically correlated with many health conditions, whereas alcohol use was negatively correlated with these conditions, such that increased genetic risk for alcohol use is associated with lower disease risk. We report evidence for the involvement of many systems in tobacco and alcohol use, including genes involved in nicotinic, dopaminergic, and glutamatergic neurotransmission. The results provide a solid starting point to evaluate the effects of these loci in model organisms and more precise substance use measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengzhen Liu
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Yu Jiang
- Department of Public Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
| | - Robbee Wedow
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Yue Li
- Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - David M Brazel
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Interdisciplinary Quantitative Biology Graduate Group, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Fang Chen
- Department of Public Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
| | - Gargi Datta
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Jose Davila-Velderrain
- Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Daniel McGuire
- Department of Public Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
| | - Chao Tian
- 23andMe, Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA
| | - Xiaowei Zhan
- Quantitative Biomedical Research Center, Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA
- Center for the Genetics of Host Defense, Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Hélène Choquet
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA
| | - Anna R Docherty
- Department of Psychiatry, Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
- Department of Psychiatry and Human Genetics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Jessica D Faul
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Johanna R Foerster
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Lars G Fritsche
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Maiken Elvestad Gabrielsen
- K.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Scott D Gordon
- Genetic Epidemiology, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jeffrey Haessler
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jouke-Jan Hottenga
- Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Hongyan Huang
- Program in Genetic Epidemiology and Statistical Genetics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Seon-Kyeong Jang
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Philip R Jansen
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Yueh Ling
- Department of Public Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA
- Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Reedik Mägi
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Nana Matoba
- Laboratory for Statistical Analysis, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama City, Japan
| | - George McMahon
- Department of Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, UK
| | - Antonella Mulas
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monserrato, Italy
| | - Valeria Orrù
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monserrato, Italy
| | - Teemu Palviainen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anita Pandit
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | | | - Anne Heidi Skogholt
- K.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jennifer A Smith
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Amy E Taylor
- Department of Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, UK
| | - Constance Turman
- Program in Genetic Epidemiology and Statistical Genetics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Gonneke Willemsen
- Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Hannah Young
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Kendra A Young
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Gregory J M Zajac
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Wei Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Wei Zhou
- Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | | | - Jason D Boardman
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Michael Boehnke
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Dorret I Boomsma
- Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Chu Chen
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Francesco Cucca
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monserrato, Italy
| | | | - Charles B Eaton
- Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, Alpert Medical School, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Marissa A Ehringer
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Integrative Physiology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Tõnu Esko
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Edoardo Fiorillo
- Istituto di Ricerca Genetica e Biomedica, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Monserrato, Italy
| | - Nathan A Gillespie
- Department of Psychiatry, Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
- Genetic Epidemiology, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Daniel F Gudbjartsson
- deCODE Genetics/Amgen, Inc., Reykjavik, Iceland
- School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - Toomas Haller
- Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Kathleen Mullan Harris
- Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Andrew C Heath
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - John K Hewitt
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - John E Hokanson
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Christian J Hopfer
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - David J Hunter
- Program in Genetic Epidemiology and Statistical Genetics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - William G Iacono
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Eric O Johnson
- Fellows Program, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Yoichiro Kamatani
- Laboratory for Statistical Analysis, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama City, Japan
| | - Sharon L R Kardia
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Matthew C Keller
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Manolis Kellis
- Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Charles Kooperberg
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter Kraft
- Program in Genetic Epidemiology and Statistical Genetics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Kenneth S Krauter
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Markku Laakso
- Department of Internal Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
- Department of Medicine, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Penelope A Lind
- Psychiatric Genetics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Anu Loukola
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sharon M Lutz
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Pamela A F Madden
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Nicholas G Martin
- Genetic Epidemiology, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Matt McGue
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Matthew B McQueen
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Integrative Physiology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Sarah E Medland
- Psychiatric Genetics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Karen L Mohlke
- Department of Genetics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Jonas B Nielsen
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Yukinori Okada
- Laboratory for Statistical Analysis, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama City, Japan
- Department of Statistical Genetics, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Japan
| | - Ulrike Peters
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Tinca J C Polderman
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Danielle Posthuma
- Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Clinical Genetics, VU Medical Centre Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Alexander P Reiner
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John P Rice
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Eric Rimm
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Richard J Rose
- Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | | | - Michael C Stallings
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Alena Stančáková
- Department of Internal Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
| | | | - Khanh K Thai
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA
| | - Hilary A Tindle
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
| | | | - Tamara L Wall
- Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - David R Weir
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Constance Weisner
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA
| | - John B Whitfield
- Genetic Epidemiology, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Jie Yin
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA
| | - Luisa Zuccolo
- Department of Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, UK
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Laura J Bierut
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Kristian Hveem
- K.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Department of Medicine, Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - James J Lee
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Marcus R Munafò
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies, School of Psychological Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Nancy L Saccone
- Department of Genetics, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Cristen J Willer
- Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Department of Human Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Marilyn C Cornelis
- Department of Preventative Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Sean P David
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Eric Jorgenson
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA
| | - Jaakko Kaprio
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jerry A Stitzel
- Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Department of Integrative Physiology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Kari Stefansson
- deCODE Genetics/Amgen, Inc., Reykjavik, Iceland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | | | - Gonçalo Abecasis
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Statistical Genetics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Dajiang J Liu
- Department of Public Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA.
- Institute of Personalized Medicine, College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA.
| | - Scott Vrieze
- Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
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16
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Bent ZW, Brazel DM, Tran-Gyamfi MB, Hamblin RY, VanderNoot VA, Branda SS. Use of a capture-based pathogen transcript enrichment strategy for RNA-Seq analysis of the Francisella tularensis LVS transcriptome during infection of murine macrophages. PLoS One 2013; 8:e77834. [PMID: 24155975 PMCID: PMC3796476 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2013] [Accepted: 09/09/2013] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Francisella tularensis is a zoonotic intracellular pathogen that is capable of causing potentially fatal human infections. Like all successful bacterial pathogens, F. tularensis rapidly responds to changes in its environment during infection of host cells, and upon encountering different microenvironments within those cells. This ability to appropriately respond to the challenges of infection requires rapid and global shifts in gene expression patterns. In this study, we use a novel pathogen transcript enrichment strategy and whole transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) to perform a detailed characterization of the rapid and global shifts in F. tularensis LVS gene expression during infection of murine macrophages. We performed differential gene expression analysis on all bacterial genes at two key stages of infection: phagosomal escape, and cytosolic replication. By comparing the F. tularensis transcriptome at these two stages of infection to that of the bacteria grown in culture, we were able to identify sets of genes that are differentially expressed over the course of infection. This analysis revealed the temporally dynamic expression of a number of known and putative transcriptional regulators and virulence factors, providing insight into their role during infection. In addition, we identified several F. tularensis genes that are significantly up-regulated during infection but had not been previously identified as virulence factors. These unknown genes may make attractive therapeutic or vaccine targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary W. Bent
- Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - David M. Brazel
- Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, United States of America
| | - Mary B. Tran-Gyamfi
- Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, United States of America
| | - Rachelle Y. Hamblin
- Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, United States of America
| | | | - Steven S. Branda
- Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, United States of America
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Martinez-Garcia M, Brazel DM, Swan BK, Arnosti C, Chain PSG, Reitenga KG, Xie G, Poulton NJ, Gomez ML, Masland DED, Thompson B, Bellows WK, Ziervogel K, Lo CC, Ahmed S, Gleasner CD, Detter CJ, Stepanauskas R. Capturing single cell genomes of active polysaccharide degraders: an unexpected contribution of Verrucomicrobia. PLoS One 2012; 7:e35314. [PMID: 22536372 PMCID: PMC3335022 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0035314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 151] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2011] [Accepted: 03/13/2012] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Microbial hydrolysis of polysaccharides is critical to ecosystem functioning and is of great interest in diverse biotechnological applications, such as biofuel production and bioremediation. Here we demonstrate the use of a new, efficient approach to recover genomes of active polysaccharide degraders from natural, complex microbial assemblages, using a combination of fluorescently labeled substrates, fluorescence-activated cell sorting, and single cell genomics. We employed this approach to analyze freshwater and coastal bacterioplankton for degraders of laminarin and xylan, two of the most abundant storage and structural polysaccharides in nature. Our results suggest that a few phylotypes of Verrucomicrobia make a considerable contribution to polysaccharide degradation, although they constituted only a minor fraction of the total microbial community. Genomic sequencing of five cells, representing the most predominant, polysaccharide-active Verrucomicrobia phylotype, revealed significant enrichment in genes encoding a wide spectrum of glycoside hydrolases, sulfatases, peptidases, carbohydrate lyases and esterases, confirming that these organisms were well equipped for the hydrolysis of diverse polysaccharides. Remarkably, this enrichment was on average higher than in the sequenced representatives of Bacteroidetes, which are frequently regarded as highly efficient biopolymer degraders. These findings shed light on the ecological roles of uncultured Verrucomicrobia and suggest specific taxa as promising bioprospecting targets. The employed method offers a powerful tool to rapidly identify and recover discrete genomes of active players in polysaccharide degradation, without the need for cultivation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manuel Martinez-Garcia
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - David M. Brazel
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
- Colby College, Waterville, Main, United States of America
| | - Brandon K. Swan
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - Carol Arnosti
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Patrick S. G. Chain
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Krista G. Reitenga
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Gary Xie
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Nicole J. Poulton
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - Monica Lluesma Gomez
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - Dashiell E. D. Masland
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - Brian Thompson
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - Wendy K. Bellows
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
| | - Kai Ziervogel
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Chien-Chi Lo
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Sanaa Ahmed
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Cheryl D. Gleasner
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Chris J. Detter
- Genome Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- Microbial and Metagenome Program, Joint Genome Institute, Walnut Creek, California, United States of Aemerica
| | - Ramunas Stepanauskas
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Main, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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