Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Neurodevelopmental disorders in children aged 2-9 years: Population-based burden estimates across five regions in India

BACKGROUND

Neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) compromise the development and attainment of full social and economic potential at individual, family, community, and country levels. Paucity of data on NDDs slows down policy and programmatic action in most developing countries despite perceived high burden.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed 3,964 children (with almost equal number of boys and girls distributed in 2-<6 and 6-9 year age categories) identified from five geographically diverse populations in India using cluster sampling technique (probability proportionate to population size). These were from the North-Central, i.e., Palwal (N = 998; all rural, 16.4% non-Hindu, 25.3% from scheduled caste/tribe [SC-ST] [these are considered underserved communities who are eligible for affirmative action]); North, i.e., Kangra (N = 997; 91.6% rural, 3.7% non-Hindu, 25.3% SC-ST); East, i.e., Dhenkanal (N = 981; 89.8% rural, 1.2% non-Hindu, 38.0% SC-ST); South, i.e., Hyderabad (N = 495; all urban, 25.7% non-Hindu, 27.3% SC-ST) and West, i.e., North Goa (N = 493; 68.0% rural, 11.4% non-Hindu, 18.5% SC-ST). All children were assessed for vision impairment (VI), epilepsy (Epi), neuromotor impairments including cerebral palsy (NMI-CP), hearing impairment (HI), speech and language disorders, autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), and intellectual disability (ID). Furthermore, 6-9-year-old children were also assessed for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and learning disorders (LDs). We standardized sample characteristics as per Census of India 2011 to arrive at district level and all-sites-pooled estimates. Site-specific prevalence of any of seven NDDs in 2-<6 year olds ranged from 2.9% (95% CI 1.6-5.5) to 18.7% (95% CI 14.7-23.6), and for any of nine NDDs in the 6-9-year-old children, from 6.5% (95% CI 4.6-9.1) to 18.5% (95% CI 15.3-22.3). Two or more NDDs were present in 0.4% (95% CI 0.1-1.7) to 4.3% (95% CI 2.2-8.2) in the younger age category and 0.7% (95% CI 0.2-2.0) to 5.3% (95% CI 3.3-8.2) in the older age category. All-site-pooled estimates for NDDs were 9.2% (95% CI 7.5-11.2) and 13.6% (95% CI 11.3-16.2) in children of 2-<6 and 6-9 year age categories, respectively, without significant difference according to gender, rural/urban residence, or religion; almost one-fifth of these children had more than one NDD. The pooled estimates for prevalence increased by up to three percentage points when these were adjusted for national rates of stunting or low birth weight (LBW). HI, ID, speech and language disorders, Epi, and LDs were the common NDDs across sites. Upon risk modelling, noninstitutional delivery, history of perinatal asphyxia, neonatal illness, postnatal neurological/brain infections, stunting, LBW/prematurity, and older age category (6-9 year) were significantly associated with NDDs. The study sample was underrepresentative of stunting and LBW and had a 15.6% refusal. These factors could be contributing to underestimation of the true NDD burden in our population.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identifies NDDs in children aged 2-9 years as a significant public health burden for India. HI was higher than and ASD prevalence comparable to the published global literature. Most risk factors of NDDs were modifiable and amenable to public health interventions.

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.

FINDINGS

In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

METHODS

We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

FINDINGS

Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS

To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.

METHODS

We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.

FINDINGS

292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.

INTERPRETATION

Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Adult human brain expresses four different molecular forms of neural cell adhesion molecules

Using antibodies to rat neural cell adhesion molecules (NCAM), we analyzed the NCAM of adult human brain. Various regions of the brain were analyzed quantitatively by Western blot. Grey matter showed four bands of NCAM with apparent molecular weights of 180,000, 170,000, 140,000 and 120,000. White matter showed one major band with an apparent M(r) of 120,000 and a minor band of 180,000. Cerebellar grey matter contained mainly 170,000, 140,000 and 120,000, white cerebellar white matter had only 180,000 and 120,000 M(1) NCAMS. Spinal cord showed mainly 120,000 M(r) NCAM. Deglycosylation using N-glycanase resulted in 170,000, 160,000, 130,000 and 110,000 M(r) proteins, suggesting that the four forms of human NCAM are derived from individual polypeptides. The presence of 170,000 M(1) NCAM is unique to human brain.

A double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of extracorporeal photopheresis in chronic progressive multiple sclerosis

Extracorporeal photopheresis is a safe therapy for cutaneous T-cell lymphoma and may have efficacy in certain autoimmune disorders. We performed a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of monthly photopheresis therapy in 16 patients with clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS). All patients had progressed during the preceding year with entry Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores between 3.0 and 7.0. Patients received photopheresis or sham therapy for 1 year and were followed for an additional 6 to 12 months. Patients were clinically evaluated by three disability scales: (1) EDSS; (2) Ambulation index and (3) Scripp's quantitative neurologic assessment. No serious side effects occurred in either group. There were no differences between the photopheresis and sham therapy groups by the disability measures. Additionally, there were no differences in progression of MRI plaque burden or evoked potential latencies. In this limited study, photopheresis was found to be safe but did not significantly alter the course of chronic progressive MS.

Revised estimate of the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the United States

Using three adjustments, we have revised a 1976 prevalence count for multiple sclerosis in the United States. The adjustments were made to data from a US national survey; they used 1990 population projections from the US Bureau of the Census, and results of investigations conducted in Weld and Larimer Countries, Colorado, and Olmsted County, Minnesota. It is estimated that approximately 250,000 to 350,000 persons in the United States in 1990 had physician-diagnosed multiple sclerosis.

Galactosyl ceramide or a derivative is an essential component of the neural receptor for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope glycoprotein gp120

This report demonstrates that galactosyl ceramide (GalCer) or a molecule derived from it may serve as an alternative receptor for human immunodeficiency virus in the nervous system. Recombinant gp120, an envelope glycoprotein of human immunodeficiency virus type 1, specifically binds to GalCer and its derivatives. This specificity was studied by inhibiting binding of radioiodinated gp120 to GalCer with antibodies to GalCer, antibodies to gp120, and an excess of unlabeled gp120. Binding activity was also removed by absorbing gp120 with liposomes containing GalCer. In addition, studies using natural and semisynthetic lipids indicate that the linkage between galactose and ceramide is essential for binding. The significance of an alternative receptor for human immunodeficiency virus in the nervous system is discussed.

Inhibition of entry of HIV-1 in neural cell lines by antibodies against galactosyl ceramide

Although the CD4 molecule is the principal cellular receptor for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), several CD4-negative cell lines are susceptible to infection with one or more HIV strains. These findings indicate that there are alternate modes of viral entry, perhaps involving one or more receptor molecules. Antibodies against galactosyl ceramide (galactocerebroside, or GalC) inhibited viral internalization and infection in two CD4-negative cell lines derived from the nervous system: U373-MG and SK-N-MC. Furthermore, recombinant HIV surface glycoprotein gp120 bound to GalC but not to other glycolipids. These results suggest a role for GalC or a highly related molecule in HIV entry into neural cells.

Expression of neural cell adhesion molecule in dysmyelinating mutants

The possible role of neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) in myelination was studied in the dysmyelinating mouse mutants jimpy and shiverer, by characterizing the expression of the different molecular forms of brain NCAM as a function of age. In jimpy, the expression of NCAM-120 (120,000-Da NCAM) was low and in shiverer both NCAM-120 and NCAM-180 (180,000-Da NCAM) were reduced when compared to controls. In both jimpy and shiverer there was no significant change in the phospholipase C-sensitive NCAM-120. These data further support the possibility that NCAM may be involved in myelination.

Induction of MHC class I antigens on glial cells is dependent on persistent mouse hepatitis virus infection

H-2 class I antigens, but not class II antigens, were detected on the surface of glial cells persistently infected with mouse hepatitis virus strain A59 (MHV-A59) as late as 90 days post-infection. Uninfected glial cells remained negative for H-2 class I and class II surface antigens. We have previously shown that conditioned media from infected glial cell cultures (supernatants) contain a factor unrelated to infectious virus and capable of inducing H-2 class I antigens on uninfected glial cells. The synthesis of this factor appears to be dependent on production of infectious virus since the H-2 inducing activity could not be detected 3 days following the addition of neutralizing antibodies to the cultures. This suggests that H-2 inducing activity contains an unstable component, the synthesis of which is dependent on continual virus production. Persistent MHV infection and H-2 class I antigen expression may play a role in MHV-induced demyelination.

Lymphokines facilitate maturation of oligodendrocytes in vitro

As oligodendrocytes develop in vitro, A2B5+ progenitor cells acquire the oligodendrocyte-specific marker, galactocerebroside (GalC), to become A2B5+ GalC+ cells. They then gradually lose reactivity to A2B5, to become A2B5- GalC+ mature oligodendrocytes. By examining this developmental surface antigen expression with and without lymphokine stimuli we found that crude lymphokines, but not interleukin-2 or gamma-interferon, facilitate this maturation process. Thus, lymphokines may have a role in differentiation of oligodendrocytes. The same lymphokine stimuli, however, did not enhance the proliferation of oligodendrocytes.

Multiple sclerosis: serial study of gadolinium-enhanced MR imaging

Thirteen patients with definite multiple sclerosis (MS), studied 16-24 months previously with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging with and without enhancement by intravenously administered gadolinium diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) dimeglumine, were reexamined with a similar protocol. Assessment of enhancement and clinical activity in both studies revealed that enhancement was observed in 13 of 14 cases in which clinical activity had changed within 4 weeks of the study and thus appeared more sensitive than clinical examination in determining active disease. The 3-minute postinjection, short repetition time image (TR) was the most efficient for depicting enhancement. Enhancing lesions (active plaques) arose from previously hyper- or isointense regions on long TR images. Previously active lesions reverted to areas of iso- or hyperintensity on long TR images. Serial comparison of long TR images in this population reveals a decrease in high-intensity lesions on long TR images in some cases and an increase in others. The findings of high-intensity regions on long TR images and previously enhancing lesions both becoming isointense suggests that transient inflammatory changes with concomitant edema without demyelination and/or with significant remyelination may occur in some MS lesions. MS lesions are dynamic; both active and inactive lesions may show dramatic change on longitudinal MR imaging studies.

Azathioprine in multiple sclerosis: the cons

Azathioprine has the longest continuing history of clinical use in the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) of any immunosuppressive therapy besides corticosteroids. To date, 19 clinical trials of azathioprine in MS have been reported, and another eight are under way. A review of the reported trials indicates little evidence for a therapeutic effect in MS. This and the lack of evidence for a specific immune alteration in the pathogenesis of MS are relative contraindications for the use of high risk immunosuppressive therapies in this disease. A further caveat is raised by a recent report suggesting that azathioprine may have contributed to an increased incidence of carcinomas in MS patients treated with this drug. In view of these considerations, perhaps the best position to take at the present time is to encourage investigators already engaged in controlled clinical trials of azathioprine to complete their work, so that this data can be considered before new studies of azathioprine in MS are undertaken.

NCAM-180, the largest component of the neural cell adhesion molecule, is reduced in dysmyelinating quaking mutant mouse brain

To explore the role of the neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) in myelination and remyelination, we studied the developmental expression of various molecular forms of NCAM in dysmyelinating quaking mouse brain as compared with normal mouse brain. Normal mouse brain expressed the several molecular forms differentially during development. Quaking showed a marked reduction in the expression of NCAM-180, which represents the largest component of NCAM, in comparison with normal brain. This suggests that the defective myelin compaction in the quaking mutation may be the result of a deficiency of NCAM-180.

Developmental expression of neural cell adhesion molecules of oligodendrocytes in vivo and in culture

Previously, we have shown that oligodendrocyte adhesion molecules are related to the 120,000-Mr neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM-120). In this report, we present further evidence that the oligodendrocyte adhesion molecule is NCAM-120. Studies on the expression of NCAM-120 and other molecular forms of NCAM in vivo in rat brain, in vitro in primary mixed cultures, and in cultures enriched for oligodendrocytes are described. Western blot analysis of rat brain using anti-NCAM showed that NCAM-120 first appears at postnatal day 7 and increases in quantity thereafter, coincident with the development of oligodendrocytes in vivo and comparable to the expression of myelin basic protein. Purified oligodendrocytes from 4-week-old rat brains expressed only NCAM-120. Quantitation of various forms of NCAMs in rat brain showed marked age-related differences in the expression of three molecular forms of NCAM. Immunofluorescence analysis showed that oligodendrocytes, at all ages tested, expressed NCAM, but in older oligodendrocytes, the intensity of staining was less. Western blot analysis of oligodendrocyte-enriched cultures showed that from day 1 after isolation (12 days of age) through day 7 after isolation (18 days of age) only NCAM-120 is seen. A possible role for NCAM in myelination and remyelination is discussed.

Tumor necrosis factor induces expression of MHC class I antigens on mouse astrocytes

The effect of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) on expression of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) antigens was examined in mouse glial cells in vitro. TNF induced MHC class I, but not class II, antigen expression on the surface of astrocytes but not on oligodendrocytes. Glial cells do not normally express detectable amounts of MHC antigens. Thus TNF may play a role in the immunopathogenesis of neurologic diseases that involve MHC class I-restricted reactions.

Induction of glial cell MHC antigen expression in neurotropic coronavirus infections. Characterization of the H-2-inducing soluble factor elaborated by infected brain cells

Neurotropic coronavirus (mouse hepatitis virus strain A59) infection induces major histocompatibility complex class I (H-2) surface antigens on oligodendrocytes and astrocytes, cells that do not normally express detectable MHC antigens on their surface. The induction on MHC antigen expression potentially allows immunocytes to interact with infected glial cells and may play a critical role in the development of virus-induced, immune-mediated demyelination in the central nervous system, a possible model of human multiple sclerosis. In this study, we characterized the soluble factor involved in MHC antigen induction, quantitated induction of MHC antigens, and analyzed the central nervous system cell type involved in the production of the factor. The H-2-inducing factor, most likely produced by astrocytes, was found to be nondialyzable, heat- and trypsin-sensitive, but resistant to treatment at pH 2.0. The m.w. of the factor was estimated as 50 to 100 kDa. Studies on fractionation by ultrafiltration and sucrose density gradient along with antibody-blocking experiments indicate that the factor is not interferon or virus particles.

Induction of glial cell MHC antigen expression in neurotropic coronavirus infections. Characterization of the H-2-inducing soluble factor elaborated by infected brain cells

Neurotropic coronavirus (mouse hepatitis virus strain A59) infection induces major histocompatibility complex class I (H-2) surface antigens on oligodendrocytes and astrocytes, cells that do not normally express detectable MHC antigens on their surface. The induction on MHC antigen expression potentially allows immunocytes to interact with infected glial cells and may play a critical role in the development of virus-induced, immune-mediated demyelination in the central nervous system, a possible model of human multiple sclerosis. In this study, we characterized the soluble factor involved in MHC antigen induction, quantitated induction of MHC antigens, and analyzed the central nervous system cell type involved in the production of the factor. The H-2-inducing factor, most likely produced by astrocytes, was found to be nondialyzable, heat- and trypsin-sensitive, but resistant to treatment at pH 2.0. The m.w. of the factor was estimated as 50 to 100 kDa. Studies on fractionation by ultrafiltration and sucrose density gradient along with antibody-blocking experiments indicate that the factor is not interferon or virus particles.

Neuroblastoma cell-oligodendrocyte interaction is mediated by neural cell adhesion molecules

The role of neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) in the interaction between neurons and oligodendrocytes was studied using N2A neuroblastoma cells, which express only the 180,000 Mr NCAM and rat oligodendrocytes which express only 120,000 Mr NCAM. Oligodendrocytes bound to neuroblastoma cells, and the binding was inhibited by anti-NCAM, suggesting that NCAM is involved in oligodendrocyte-neuron interaction. The possible role of NCAM in myelination and remyelination is discussed.

Search for antibodies to galactocerebroside in the serum and cerebrospinal fluid in human demyelinating disorders

To determine if galactocerebroside (GalC) is a target antigen in the human demyelinating disorders multiple sclerosis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and chronic demyelinating inflammatory polyneuropathy, we examined the serum and cerebrospinal fluid from patients with these disorders and from control subjects using four assay systems. In none of these assays could we detect significant differences in anti-GalC antibody titer between patients with demyelinating diseases and normal subjects or patients with other neurological disorders. Our data suggest that there is no humoral immune response to GalC in human demyelinating disorders.

Coronavirus mouse hepatitis virus (MHV)-A59 causes a persistent, productive infection in primary glial cell cultures

MHV-A59 causes a chronic demyelinating disease in mice which is accompanied by persistence of viral genome in white matter. As part of the investigation into the mechanism of viral persistence, infection of glial cells, probable targets for chronic infection, was studied by the use of mixed glial, enriched oligodendrocyte and enriched astrocyte cultures. Following MHV-A59 infection in vitro, approximately 10% of oligodendrocytes and 30% of astrocytes expressed viral antigens in the absence of overt cytopathic effect. All cultures released infectious virus for the lifetime of the cultures, for at least 45 days in the case of mixed glial cultures. Cultures derived from previously infected mice were similar to those infected in vitro with respect to percentage of cells expressing viral antigen and levels of infectious virus produced. These results show (1) that glial cells are early sites of infection in vivo as well as sites of infection in vitro cultures, and (2) that glial cells support a non-lytic but productive infection in vitro and thus may contribute to viral persistence in vivo.

C6 glioma cells express modified neural-cell adhesion molecule-like glycoproteins

We have studied the expression of neural-cell adhesion molecule (N-CAM)-like glycoproteins in a C6 glioma cell line. We found that: (a) C6 cells express N-CAM-like proteins on the cell surface, (b) the N-CAM-like proteins in C6 cells have apparent molecular weights of 130,000 and 150,000 kDa which are not seen in rodent brain and (c) deglycosylation of C6 N-CAMs suggest that the modifications are both in the carbohydrate and protein parts of the N-CAM. The expression of modified N-CAM glycoproteins is of interest in relation to the regulation of N-CAM expression.

Multiple sclerosis disease activity correlates with gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

Magnetic resonance imaging provides a method of visualizing multiple sclerosis plaques, but the age and activity of these plaques cannot be determined with routine magnetic resonance images. Gadolinium DTPA is a paramagnetic contrast agent that does not cross an intact blood-brain barrier. We studied 16 patients with multiple sclerosis, using magnetic resonance imaging, gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and computed tomographic scans. Gadolinium enhancement of multiple sclerosis plaques correlated with the clinical activity of the disease and corresponded anatomically with the symptoms and signs. We conclude that gadolinium enhancement of magnetic resonance images is a promising tool in the investigation of multiple sclerosis lesions and that it may provide a method for objective follow-up in clinical trails.

Expression of MHC class I genes in mouse hepatitis virus (MHV-A59) infection and in multiple sclerosis

Our studies revealed that virus induced demyelination as well as human inflammatory demyelination involves upregulation of class I MHC genes and surface expression of antigens encoded by these genes. Induction involves the action of an intermediate soluble factor/s which is at present unknown. These findings suggest that MHC class I restricted, cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) reactions, against self or foreign antigens may play a role in these conditions. These findings may help to elucidate the mechanism of coronavirus-induced demyelination as well as the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

MHC antigen expression on bulk isolated macrophage-microglia from newborn mouse brain: induction of Ia antigen expression by gamma-interferon

Macrophage-microglia were isolated from primary mixed brain cell cultures of normal newborn mice. They were successfully maintained in vitro for at least 8 weeks. Purity of the cultures was 97-100%, as determined by endocytosis of latex beads, non-specific staining through Fc receptors, EA and EAC rosette formation. These cells were non-specific esterase-positive, but peroxidase-negative. Electron-microscope observations revealed morphological similarities to mature macrophages. Isolated macrophage-microglia seldom incorporated [3H]thymidine in vitro. By means of 51Cr release assay, using monoclonal antibodies against mouse major histocompatibility complex (MHC) antigens and complement, we detected class I MHC (H-2) antigen on unstimulated macrophage-microglia, and both class I and class II (Ia) antigens on gamma-interferon-treated cells. These observations suggest possible immunoregulatory functions of macrophage-microglia in the central nervous system, as is characteristic of other cells of monocyte lineage.

Multiple sclerosis: gadolinium enhancement in MR imaging

Magnetic resonance (MR) images--both nonenhanced and enhanced with gadolinium DTPA/dimeglumine (Gd)--were compared with high-iodine (88.1 g I) computed tomographic (HICT) scans in demonstrating lesions in 15 patients known to have multiple sclerosis (MS). T1-weighted, mixed (T1, proton density, and T2), and T2-weighted MR pulse sequences were used. More than 20 lesions in each of 14 patients were demonstrated by pre-Gd mixed images and T2WI. Nine patients had clinical symptoms of active disease. Gd-enhanced T1WI showed at least one lesion that appeared to correspond with newly reported symptoms or signs. In addition, three clinically stable patients showed enhancement. Enhancement was best seen on 3-minute T1WI. HICT scans showed enhancement in four of the nine patients with active disease and in none of five clinically stable patients. Gd-enhanced MR imaging appears to be more sensitive than HICT in the detection of the transient abnormalities of the blood-brain barrier that occur in patients with active MS and appears capable of distinguishing active lesions that may correspond to the anatomic regions responsible for abnormal clinical findings.

Oligodendrocyte cell adhesion molecules are related to neural cell adhesion molecule (N-CAM)

The glycoproteins responsible for calcium-dependent oligodendrocyte aggregation were purified and characterized. Using detergent extraction, lentil-lectin-Sepharose 4B affinity chromatography, and preparative gel electrophoresis, 3 proteins were purified to apparent homogeneity, with relative Mrs of 120,000, 140,000, and 180,000. The aggregation assay showed that all 3 proteins had the ability to block antibody-mediated inhibition of oligodendrocyte aggregation. The 120,000 protein was the most active of the three. Antisera were raised in rabbits to these 3 individual proteins. Western blot analyses showed that all three antisera recognized 120,000, 140,000, and 180,000 proteins, which indicated that the proteins were related. Western-blot analyses of cultured oligodendrocytes and purified rat myelin showed only the 120,000 protein. Immunoprecipitation of iodinated membrane proteins of cultured oligodendrocytes also indicated the presence of only the 120,000 Mr protein. Deglycosylation of the 120,000 protein by N-glycanase resulted in a 110,000 protein. The immunoblot pattern suggested some similarities between oligodendrocyte adhesion molecules and the neural cell adhesion molecule (N-CAM). Therefore, the 120,000, 140,000, and 180,000 Mr proteins were compared to N-CAM by Western-blot analysis, immunofluorescence staining, and by immunoprecipitation. The results suggest that oligodendrocytes contain a 120,000 membrane glycoprotein that is related to N-CAM.

Remyelination follows antibody-induced central nervous system demyelination

Remyelination after anti-galactocerebroside-induced demyelination in the guinea pig optic nerve was evident 17 days after the onset of demyelination. The tempo of remyelination was uniform for large- and small-diameter axons and progressed, with compaction and thickening of myelin sheaths. Demyelinated axons were found interspersed among remyelinated fibers and were consistently separated from oligodendrocytes by astrocytic processes. These findings indicate that central nervous system remyelination may occur after in vivo antibody-induced demyelination, but that new myelin formation may be limited by mechanical interference from astrocytic processes.

Astrocytes, oligodendrocytes, and Schwann cells share a common antigenic determinant that cross-reacts with myelin basic protein: identification with monoclonal antibody

We have produced a monoclonal antibody against myelin basic protein that reacts with astrocytes, oligodendrocytes, and Schwann cells. This antibody was generated by fusion of mouse myeloma cells with spleen cells from BALB/c mice immunized with delipidated white matter from adult rat corpus callosum. The antibody was characterized via solid-phase radioimmunoassay, immunoblot of SDS-PAGE, and by indirect immunofluorescence staining of monolayer cultures containing oligodendrocytes, astrocytes, and Schwann cells. Myelin basic protein (MBP) was shown previously to be present only in myelin producing cells in CNS and PNS (oligodendroglia and Schwann cells) and not in astrocytes. The binding of this monoclonal antibody to all 3 cell types suggests that these cells share a common epitope. This epitope may be related to a common progenitor cell.

Coronavirus infection induces H-2 antigen expression on oligodendrocytes and astrocytes

Infection of the central nervous system by mouse hepatitis virus strain A59, a murine neurotropic coronavirus, induces class I major histocompatibility complex antigens on mouse oligodendrocytes and astrocytes, cells that do not normally express these antigens on their surfaces. This induction, which occurs through soluble factors elaborated by infected glial cells, potentially allows immunocytes to interact with the glial cells and may play a critical role in the pathogenesis of virus-induced, immune-mediated demyelination in the central nervous system.

The expression of MHC antigens on oligodendrocytes: induction of polymorphic H-2 expression by lymphokines

Neither class I nor class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) antigen has been demonstrated in native oligodendrocytes, the possible target of viral or immune damage in multiple sclerosis (MS). In this report, we show that H-2, but not Ia, antigen expression is induced on isolated mouse oligodendrocytes in vitro by crude supernatant from lectin-activated spleen cells, lectin-free interleukin 2, and cloned gamma-interferon. This induction of H-2 expression is not accompanied by proliferation of oligodendrocytes, whereas MHC induction in spleen cells is highly related to their proliferation, or blastoid transformation. Oligodendrocytes as well as other brain cells are probably isolated from these lymphokines by the blood-brain barrier (BBB). However, it is possible that oligodendrocytes express MHC class I antigen as a consequence of impairment of the BBB, or in the presence of activated T-cells which have been demonstrated in active MS lesions. This activation then renders oligodendrocytes possible target cells for MHC-restricted cytotoxic T-cells.