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Peçanha-Pietrobom PM, Leite GGF, Hunter J, Ferreira PRA, Burattini MN, Bellei N, Ota-Arakaki JS, Salomao R. The clinical course of hospitalized moderately ill COVID-19 patients is mirrored by routine hematologic tests and influenced by renal transplantation. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258987. [PMID: 34793468 PMCID: PMC8601535 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2021] [Accepted: 10/10/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Several studies of patients with COVID-19 have evaluated biological markers for predicting outcomes, most of them retrospectively and with a wide scope of clinical severity. We followed a prospective cohort of patients admitted in hospital wards with moderate COVID-19 disease, including those with a history of kidney transplantation, and examined the ability of changes in routine hematologic laboratory parameters to predict and mirror the patients' clinical course regarding the severity of their condition (classified as critical vs. non-critical) and in-hospital mortality or hospital discharge. Among the 68 patients, 20 (29%) were kidney transplanted patients (KT), and they had much higher mortality than non-kidney transplanted patients in this cohort (40% X 8.3%). Lymphocytes, neutrophils and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio (NLR) at admission and platelets as well as the red blood cells parameters hemoglobin, hematocrit, and RDW by the time of hospital discharge or death clearly differentiated patients progressing to critical disease and those with clinical recovery. Patients with deteriorating clinical courses presented elevated and similar NLRs during the first week of hospitalization. However, they were dramatically different at hospital discharge, with a decrease in the survivors (NLR around 5.5) and sustained elevation in non-survivors (NLR around 21). Platelets also could distinguish survivors from non-survivors among the critical patients. In conclusion, routine hematologic tests are useful to monitor the clinical course of COVID-19 patients admitted with moderate disease. Unexpectedly, changes in hematologic tests, including lymphopenia, were not predictive of complicated outcomes among KT recipients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula M. Peçanha-Pietrobom
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - James Hunter
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Paulo R. Abrão Ferreira
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N. Burattini
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nancy Bellei
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jaquelina Sonoe Ota-Arakaki
- Division of Respiratory Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Reinaldo Salomao
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
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Hallal PC, Victora CG, Silveira MF, Barros AJD, Menezes AMB, Horta BL, Struchiner CJ, Hartwig FP, Victora GD, Pellanda LC, Burattini MN, Dellagostin OA, Barros FC. The challenge of conducting epidemiological research in times of pandemic and denialism: 1-year anniversary of the EPICOVID-19 project in Brazil. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 50:1049-1052. [PMID: 34215876 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Pedro C Hallal
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Cesar G Victora
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Mariângela F Silveira
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Aluísio J D Barros
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Ana M B Menezes
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Bernardo L Horta
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | | | - Fernando P Hartwig
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Gabriel D Victora
- Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, USA
| | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | - Odir A Dellagostin
- Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Fernando C Barros
- Postgraduate Program in Health and Behavior, Universidade Católica de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
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Hallal PC, Silveira MF, Menezes AMB, Horta BL, Barros AJD, Pellanda LC, Victora GD, Dellagostin OA, Struchiner CJ, Burattini MN, Mesenburg MA, Jacques N, Vidaletti LP, Ambros EL, Berlezi EM, Schirmer H, Renner JDP, Collares K, Ikeda MLR, Ardenghi TM, Gasperi PD, Hartwig FP, Barros FC, Victora CG. Slow Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Southern Brazil Over a 6-Month Period: Report on 8 Sequential Statewide Serological Surveys Including 35 611 Participants. Am J Public Health 2021; 111:1542-1550. [PMID: 34185552 DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2021.306351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Objectives. To evaluate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) over 6 months in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul (population 11.3 million), based on 8 serological surveys. Methods. In each survey, 4151 participants in round 1 and 4460 participants in round 2 were randomly sampled from all state regions. We assessed presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using a validated lateral flow point-of-care test; we adjusted figures for the time-dependent decay of antibodies. Results. The SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence increased from 0.03% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.00%, 0.34%; 1 in every 3333 individuals) in mid-April to 1.89% (95% CI = 1.36%, 2.54%; 1 in every 53 individuals) in early September. Prevalence was similar across gender and skin color categories. Older adults were less likely to be infected than younger participants. The proportion of the population who reported leaving home daily increased from 21.4% (95% CI = 20.2%, 22.7%) to 33.2% (95% CI = 31.8%, 34.5%). Conclusions. SARS-CoV-2 infection increased slowly during the first 6 months in the state, differently from what was observed in other Brazilian regions. Future survey rounds will continue to document the spread of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro C Hallal
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Mariângela F Silveira
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Ana M B Menezes
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Bernardo L Horta
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Aluísio J D Barros
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Gabriel D Victora
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Odir A Dellagostin
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Claudio J Struchiner
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Marilia A Mesenburg
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Nadege Jacques
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Luís Paulo Vidaletti
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Emanuele L Ambros
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Evelise M Berlezi
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Helena Schirmer
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Jane D P Renner
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Kaue Collares
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Maria Letícia R Ikeda
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Thiago M Ardenghi
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Patricia de Gasperi
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Fernando P Hartwig
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Fernando C Barros
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
| | - Cesar G Victora
- Pedro C. Hallal, Mariângela F. Silveira, Ana M. B. Menezes, Bernardo L. Horta, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Nadege Jacques, Luís Paulo Vidaletti, Fernando P. Hartwig, Fernando C. Barros, and Cesar G. Victora are with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil. Lúcia C. Pellanda and Helena Schirmer are with the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gabriel D. Victora is with the Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY. Odir A. Dellagostin is with the Postgraduate Program in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. Claudio J. Struchiner is with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Marcelo N. Burattini is with the Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil. Marilia A. Mesenburg is with the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, and the Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Emanuele L. Ambros is with the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Uruguaiana, Brazil. Evelise M. Berlezi is with the Universidade de Ijuí, Brazil. Jane D. P. Renner is with the Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. Kaue Collares is with the Universidade de Passo Fundo, Brazil. Maria Letícia R. Ikeda is with the Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Thiago M. Ardenghi is with the Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil. Patricia de Gasperi is with the Universidade de Caxias do Sul, Brazil
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Menezes AMB, Victora CG, Hartwig FP, Silveira MF, Horta BL, Barros AJD, Mesenburg MA, Wehrmeister FC, Pellanda LC, Dellagostin OA, Struchiner CJ, Burattini MN, Barros FC, Hallal PC. High prevalence of symptoms among Brazilian subjects with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Sci Rep 2021; 11:13279. [PMID: 34168250 PMCID: PMC8225900 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92775-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 06/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the beginning of the pandemic of COVID-19, there has been a widespread assumption that most infected persons are asymptomatic. Using data from the recent wave of the EPICOVID19 study, a nationwide household-based survey including 133 cities from all states of Brazil, we estimated the proportion of people with and without antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 who were asymptomatic, which symptoms were most frequently reported, number of symptoms and the association with socio-demographic characteristics. We tested 33,205 subjects using a rapid antibody test previously validated. Information was collected before participants received the test result. Out of 849 (2.7%) participants positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, only 12.1% (95% CI 10.1-14.5) reported no symptoms, compared to 42.2% (95% CI 41.7-42.8) among those negative. The largest difference between the two groups was observed for changes in smell/taste (56.5% versus 9.1%, a 6.2-fold difference). Changes in smell/taste, fever and body aches were most likely to predict positive tests as suggested by recursive partitioning tree analysis. Among individuals without any of these three symptoms, only 0.8% tested positive, compared to 18.3% of those with both fever and changes in smell or taste. Most subjects with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are symptomatic, even though most present only mild symptoms.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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5
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Hallal PC, Hartwig FP, Horta BL, Silveira MF, Struchiner CJ, Vidaletti LP, Neumann NA, Pellanda LC, Dellagostin OA, Burattini MN, Victora GD, Menezes AMB, Barros FC, Barros AJD, Victora CG. SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in Brazil: results from two successive nationwide serological household surveys. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e1390-e1398. [PMID: 32979314 PMCID: PMC7511212 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30387-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 221] [Impact Index Per Article: 55.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2020] [Revised: 08/09/2020] [Accepted: 08/12/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population-based data on COVID-19 are essential for guiding policies. There are few such studies, particularly from low or middle-income countries. Brazil is currently a hotspot for COVID-19 globally. We aimed to investigate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence by city and according to sex, age, ethnicity group, and socioeconomic status, and compare seroprevalence estimates with official statistics on deaths and cases. METHODS In this repeated cross-sectional study, we did two seroprevalence surveys in 133 sentinel cities in all Brazilian states. We randomly selected households and randomly selected one individual from all household members. We excluded children younger than 1 year. Presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was assessed using a lateral flow point-of-care test, the WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test (Wondfo Biotech, Guangzhou, China), using two drops of blood from finger prick samples. This lateral-flow assay detects IgG and IgM isotypes that are specific to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Participants also answered short questionnaires on sociodemographic information (sex, age, education, ethnicity, household size, and household assets) and compliance with physical distancing measures. FINDINGS We included 25 025 participants in the first survey (May 14-21) and 31 165 in the second (June 4-7). For the 83 (62%) cities with sample sizes of more than 200 participants in both surveys, the pooled seroprevalence increased from 1·9% (95% CI 1·7-2·1) to 3·1% (2·8-3·4). City-level prevalence ranged from 0% to 25·4% in both surveys. 11 (69%) of 16 cities with prevalence above 2·0% in the first survey were located in a stretch along a 2000 km of the Amazon river in the northern region. In the second survey, we found 34 cities with prevalence above 2·0%, which included the same 11 Amazon cities plus 14 from the northeast region, where prevalence was increasing rapidly. Prevalence levels were lower in the south and centre-west, and intermediate in the southeast, where the highest level was found in Rio de Janeiro (7·5% [4·2-12·2]). In the second survey, prevalence was similar in men and women, but an increased prevalence was observed in participants aged 20-59 years and those living in crowded conditions (4·4% [3·5-5·6] for those living with households with six or more people). Prevalence among Indigenous people was 6·4% (4·1-9·4) compared with 1·4% (1·2-1·7) among White people. Prevalence in the poorest socioeconomic quintile was 3·7% (3·2-4·3) compared with 1·7% (1·4-2·2) in the wealthiest quintile. INTERPRETATION Antibody prevalence was highly heterogeneous by country region, with rapid initial escalation in Brazil's north and northeast. Prevalence is strongly associated with Indigenous ancestry and low socioeconomic status. These population subgroups are unlikely to be protected if the policy response to the pandemic by the national government continues to downplay scientific evidence. FUNDING Brazilian Ministry of Health, Instituto Serrapilheira, Brazilian Collective Health Association, and the JBS Fazer o Bem Faz Bem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro C Hallal
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Fernando P Hartwig
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Bernardo L Horta
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Mariângela F Silveira
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | | | - Luís P Vidaletti
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | | | - Lucia C Pellanda
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Odir A Dellagostin
- Postgraduate Programme in Biotechnology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Gabriel D Victora
- Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Ana M B Menezes
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Fernando C Barros
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil; Universidade Católica de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Aluísio J D Barros
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Cesar G Victora
- Postgraduate Programme in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil.
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Silveira MF, Barros AJD, Horta BL, Pellanda LC, Victora GD, Dellagostin OA, Struchiner CJ, Burattini MN, Valim ARM, Berlezi EM, Mesa JM, Ikeda MLR, Mesenburg MA, Mantesso M, Dall'Agnol MM, Bittencourt RA, Hartwig FP, Menezes AMB, Barros FC, Hallal PC, Victora CG. Population-based surveys of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in Southern Brazil. Nat Med 2020. [PMID: 32641783 DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.01.20087205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Population-based data on COVID-19 are urgently needed. We report on three rounds of probability sample household surveys in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), carried out in nine large municipalities using the Wondfo lateral flow point-of-care test for immunoglobulin M and G antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (https://en.wondfo.com.cn/product/wondfo-sars-cov-2-antibody-test-lateral-flow-method-2/). Before survey use, the assay underwent four validation studies with pooled estimates of sensitivity (84.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 81.4-87.8%) and specificity (99.0%; 95% CI = 97.8-99.7%). We calculated that the seroprevalence was 0.048% (2/4,151; 95% CI = 0.006-0.174) on 11-13 April (round 1), 0.135% (6/4,460; 95% CI = 0.049-0.293%) on 25-27 April (round 2) and 0.222% (10/4,500; 95% CI = 0.107-0.408) on 9-11 May (round 3), with a significant upward trend over the course of the surveys. Of 37 family members of positive individuals, 17 (35%) were also positive. The epidemic is at an early stage in the state, and there is high compliance with social distancing, unlike in other parts of Brazil. Periodic survey rounds will continue to monitor trends until at least the end of September, and our population-based data will inform decisions on preventive policies and health system preparedness at the state level.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Gabriel D Victora
- Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY, United States
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Marilia A Mesenburg
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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7
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Barros AJD, Victora CG, Menezes AMB, Horta BL, Hartwig F, Victora G, Pellanda LC, Dellagostin OA, Struchiner CJ, Burattini MN, Gonçalves MR, Possuelo LG, Weber LP, Estima SL, Jacques N, Härter J, Silva SG, Frizzo M, Lima RC. Social distancing patterns in nine municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: the Epicovid19/RS study. Rev Saude Publica 2020; 54:75. [PMID: 32725098 PMCID: PMC7373222 DOI: 10.11606/s1518-8787.2020054002810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To describe social distancing practices in nine municipalities of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, stratified by gender, age, and educational attainment. METHODS Two sequential cross-sectional studies were conducted in the municipalities of Canoas, Caxias do Sul, Ijuí, Passo Fundo, Pelotas, Porto Alegre, Santa Cruz do Sul, Santa Maria, and Uruguaiana to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19. The study was designed to be representative of the urban population of these municipalities. A questionnaire including three questions about social distancing was also administered to the participants. Here, we present descriptive analyses of social distancing practices by subgroups and use chi-square tests for comparisons. RESULTS In terms of degree of social distancing, 25.8% of the interviewees reported being essentially isolated and 41.1% reported being quite isolated. 20.1% of respondents reported staying at home all the time, while 44.5% left only for essential activities. More than half of households reported receiving no visits from non-residents. Adults aged 20 to 59 reported the least social distancing, while more than 80% of participants aged 60 years or older reported being essentially isolated or quite isolated. Women reported more stringent distancing than men. Groups with higher educational attainment reported going out for daily activities more frequently. CONCLUSIONS The extremes of age are more protected by social distancing, but some groups remain highly exposed. This can be an important limiting factor in controlling progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aluisio J D Barros
- Centro de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | - Cesar G Victora
- Centro de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | - Ana M B Menezes
- Centro de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | - Bernardo L Horta
- Centro de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | - Fernando Hartwig
- Centro de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | | | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil
| | - Odir A Dellagostin
- Centro de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | - Claudio J Struchiner
- Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil
| | | | | | - Lia G Possuelo
- Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS, Brasil
| | | | | | - Nadège Jacques
- Centro de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil
| | | | - Shana G Silva
- Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul, Passo Fundo, RS, Brasil
| | - Matias Frizzo
- Universidade Regional do Noroeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Ijuí, RS, Brasil
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Maier SB, Massad E, Amaku M, Burattini MN, Greenhalgh D. The optimal age of vaccination against dengue in Brazil based on serotype-specific forces of infection derived from serological data. Math Med Biol 2020; 38:1-27. [PMID: 32671383 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqaa007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2019] [Revised: 06/06/2020] [Accepted: 06/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
In this paper, we study a single serotype transmission model of dengue to determine the optimal vaccination age for Dengvaxia. The transmission dynamics are modelled with an age-dependent force of infection. The force of infection for each serotype is derived from the serological profile of dengue in Brazil without serotype distinction and from serotype-specific reported cases. The risk due to an infection is measured by the probability of requiring hospitalization based on Brazilian Ministry of Health data. The optimal vaccination age is determined for any number and combination of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes DENv1-4. The lifetime expected risk is adapted to include antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections. The risk is assumed to be serostatus-dependent. The optimal vaccination age is computed for constant, serostatus-specific vaccine efficacies. Additionally, the vaccination age is restricted to conform to the licence of Dengvaxia in Brazil and the achievable and minimal lifetime expected risks are compared. The optimal vaccination age obtained for the risk of hospitalization varies significantly with the assumptions relating to ADE and cross-immunity. Risk-free primary infections lead to higher optimal vaccination ages, as do asymptomatic third and fourth infections. Sometimes vaccination is not recommended at all, e.g. for any endemic area with a single serotype if primary infections are risk-free. Restricting the vaccination age to Dengvaxia licensed ages mostly leads to only a slightly higher lifetime expected risk and the vaccine should be administered as close as possible to the optimal vaccination age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandra B Maier
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
| | - Eduardo Massad
- School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Marcos Amaku
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, Hospital São Paulo, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - David Greenhalgh
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
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Silveira MF, Barros AJD, Horta BL, Pellanda LC, Victora GD, Dellagostin OA, Struchiner CJ, Burattini MN, Valim ARM, Berlezi EM, Mesa JM, Ikeda MLR, Mesenburg MA, Mantesso M, Dall'Agnol MM, Bittencourt RA, Hartwig FP, Menezes AMB, Barros FC, Hallal PC, Victora CG. Population-based surveys of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in Southern Brazil. Nat Med 2020; 26:1196-1199. [PMID: 32641783 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0992-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 116] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Population-based data on COVID-19 are urgently needed. We report on three rounds of probability sample household surveys in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), carried out in nine large municipalities using the Wondfo lateral flow point-of-care test for immunoglobulin M and G antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (https://en.wondfo.com.cn/product/wondfo-sars-cov-2-antibody-test-lateral-flow-method-2/). Before survey use, the assay underwent four validation studies with pooled estimates of sensitivity (84.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 81.4-87.8%) and specificity (99.0%; 95% CI = 97.8-99.7%). We calculated that the seroprevalence was 0.048% (2/4,151; 95% CI = 0.006-0.174) on 11-13 April (round 1), 0.135% (6/4,460; 95% CI = 0.049-0.293%) on 25-27 April (round 2) and 0.222% (10/4,500; 95% CI = 0.107-0.408) on 9-11 May (round 3), with a significant upward trend over the course of the surveys. Of 37 family members of positive individuals, 17 (35%) were also positive. The epidemic is at an early stage in the state, and there is high compliance with social distancing, unlike in other parts of Brazil. Periodic survey rounds will continue to monitor trends until at least the end of September, and our population-based data will inform decisions on preventive policies and health system preparedness at the state level.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Gabriel D Victora
- Laboratory of Lymphocyte Dynamics, Rockefeller University, New York, NY, United States
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Marilia A Mesenburg
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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Hallal PC, Horta BL, Barros AJD, Dellagostin OA, Hartwig FP, Pellanda LC, Struchiner CJ, Burattini MN, Silveira MFD, Menezes AMB, Barros FC, Victora CG. Trends in the prevalence of COVID-19 infection in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: repeated serological surveys. Cien Saude Colet 2020; 25:2395-2401. [PMID: 32520284 DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232020256.1.09632020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2020] [Accepted: 04/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
COVID-19, the disease produced by the virus SARS-CoV-2, has spread quickly throughout the world, leading the World Health Organization to first classify it as an international health emergency and, subsequently, declaring it pandemic. The number of confirmed cases, as April 11, surpassed 1,700,000, but this figure does not reflect the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population as, in many countries, tests are almost exclusively performed in people with symptoms, particularly severe cases. To properly assess the magnitude of the problem and to contribute to the design of evidence-based policies for fighting COVID-19, one must accurately estimate the population prevalence of infection. Our study is aimed at estimating the prevalence of infected individuals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, to document how fast the infection spreads, and to estimate the proportion of infected persons who present or presented symptoms, as well as the proportion of asymptomatic infections. Four repeated serological surveys will be conducted in probability samples of nine sentinel cities every two weeks. Tests will be performed in 4,500 participants in each survey, totaling18,000 interviews. Interviews and tests will be conducted at the participants' household. A rapid test for the detection of antibodies will be used; the test was validated prior to the beginning of the fieldwork.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro Curi Hallal
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Bernardo L Horta
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Aluísio J D Barros
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Odir A Dellagostin
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Fernando P Hartwig
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Lúcia C Pellanda
- Fundação Universidade Federal de Ciências de Saúde de Porto Alegre. Porto Alegre RS Brasil
| | | | | | - Mariângela Freitas da Silveira
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Ana M B Menezes
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Fernando C Barros
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
| | - Cesar Gomes Victora
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas. R. Marechal Deodoro 1160, Centro. 96020-220 Pelotas RS Brasil.
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Maier SB, Massad E, Amaku M, Burattini MN, Greenhalgh D. The Optimal Age of Vaccination Against Dengue with an Age-Dependent Biting Rate with Application to Brazil. Bull Math Biol 2020; 82:12. [PMID: 31933012 PMCID: PMC6957571 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-019-00690-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2019] [Accepted: 12/13/2019] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
In this paper we introduce a single serotype transmission model, including an age-dependent mosquito biting rate, to find the optimal vaccination age against dengue in Brazil with Dengvaxia. The optimal vaccination age and minimal lifetime expected risk of hospitalisation are found by adapting a method due to Hethcote (Math Biosci 89:29–52). Any number and combination of the four dengue serotypes DENv1–4 is considered. Successful vaccination against a serotype corresponds to a silent infection. The effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections are studied. ADE is assumed to imply risk-free primary infections, while permanent cross-immunity implies risk-free tertiary and quaternary infections. Data from trials of Dengvaxia indicate vaccine efficacy to be age and serostatus dependent and vaccination of seronegative individuals to induce an increased risk of hospitalisation. Some of the scenarios are therefore reconsidered taking these findings into account. The optimal vaccination age is compared to that achievable under the current age restriction of the vaccine. If vaccination is not considered to induce risk, optimal vaccination ages are very low. The assumption of ADE generally leads to a higher optimal vaccination age in this case. For a single serotype vaccination is not recommended in the case of ADE. Permanent cross-immunity results in a slightly lower optimal vaccination age. If vaccination induces a risk, the optimal vaccination ages are much higher, particularly for permanent cross-immunity. ADE has no effect on the optimal vaccination age when permanent cross-immunity is considered; otherwise, it leads to a slight increase in optimal vaccination age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandra B Maier
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, U.K
| | - Eduardo Massad
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, U.K.,School of Applied Mathematics, Fundação Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Marcos Amaku
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.,Hospital São Paulo, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - David Greenhalgh
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, U.K..
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12
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Abstract
Aims and Background In Brazil, the female population has been increasingly infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and uterine cervix carcinoma now represents the second highest cause of mortality. Although HIV infection among women is associated with an increased prevalence of cervical cancer precursors, the co-infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered to be a necessary but not sufficient factor to induce genital lesions. This study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with the history of genital warts among HIV-positive women. Methods A comparative cross-sectional evaluation was applied to 141 HIV-positive women. All patients were submitted to colposcopy, smear cytology, directed biopsy, and HPV-DNA detection. The chi-square, Fisher's exact test, and the odds ratio (OR, 95%; confidence interval, CI) were used to evaluate associations between history of genital warts and risk factors. Results A history of genital warts presented associations with: a) age at first sexual intercourse ≤17 years (OR, 0.42; CI, 0.16-1.11); b) history of genital warts in sex partners (OR, 11.39; CI, 4.21–30.76), especially with recurrent episodes (OR, 6.60; CI, 2.69–16.12); c) drug addiction (OR, 2.38; CI, 1.09–5.19), especially in crack users (OR, 5.34; CI, 1.64–17.41); d) cervical HPV infection (OR, 2.75; CI 1.09–6.90); e) cervical infection caused by only one HPV type (OR, 2.77; CI 1.06–7.20); f) perianal HPV infection (OR, 2.30; CI, 0.70–7.56), associated with negative results for undetermined risk HPV (OR, 8.41; P = 0.04); and g) no antiretroviral therapy (OR, 3.41; P = 0.07). Conclusions Evaluation of behavioral risk factors associated with a genital wart history is an important tool to prevent and reduce persistent HPV infection, and consequently genital cancer precursors in HIV infected women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Alice G Gonçalves
- Division of Clinical Immunology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine of Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
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Maier SB, Huang X, Massad E, Amaku M, Burattini MN, Greenhalgh D. Analysis of the optimal vaccination age for dengue in Brazil with a tetravalent dengue vaccine. Math Biosci 2017; 294:15-32. [PMID: 28935561 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.09.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2016] [Revised: 05/18/2017] [Accepted: 09/11/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
In this paper we study a mathematical model to analyse the optimal vaccination age against Dengue in Brazil. Data from Brazil are used to estimate the basic reproduction numbers for each of the four Dengue serotypes and then the optimal vaccination age is calculated using a method due to Hethcote [1]. The vaccine has different efficacies against each serotype. Vaccination that is too early is ineffective as individuals are protected by maternal antibodies but leaving vaccination until later may allow the disease to spread. First of all the optimal vaccination ages are calculated where there is just one serotype in circulation and then when there are multiple serotypes. The calculations are done using data both assuming constant vaccine efficacy and age-dependent vaccine efficacy against a given serotype. The multiple serotype calculations are repeated assuming that the first infection is a risky infection and that it is not (to model Dengue Antibody Enhancement). The calculations are then repeated when any third or fourth Dengue infections are asymptomatic, so that two Dengue infections with different serotypes provide effective permanent immunity. The calculations are also repeated when the age-dependent risk function (fitted to Brazilian data) is hospitalisation from Dengue and when it is mortality due to Dengue. We find a wide variety of optimal vaccination ages depending on both the serotypes in circulation and the assumptions of the model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandra B Maier
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
| | - Xiao Huang
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
| | - Eduardo Massad
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Marcos Amaku
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- LIM01-Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil; Hospital São Paulo, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - David Greenhalgh
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK.
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Burattini MN, Lopez LF, Coutinho FA, Siqueira JB, Homsani S, Sarti E, Massad E. Age and regional differences in clinical presentation and risk of hospitalization for dengue in Brazil, 2000-2014. Clinics (Sao Paulo) 2016; 71:455-63. [PMID: 27626476 PMCID: PMC4975787 DOI: 10.6061/clinics/2016(08)08] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2015] [Accepted: 04/29/2016] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Dengue cases range from asymptomatic to severe, eventually leading to hospitalization and death. Timely and appropriate management is critical to reduce morbidity. Since 1980, dengue has spread throughout Brazil, affecting an increasing number of individuals. This paper describes age and regional differences in dengue's clinical presentation and associated risk of hospitalization based on more than 5 million cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from 2000-2014. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of ∼5,450,000 dengue cases, relating clinical manifestations and the risk of hospitalization to age, gender, previous infection by dengue, dengue virus serotype, years of formal education, delay to first attendance and the occurrence of dengue during outbreaks and in different Brazilian regions. RESULTS Complicated forms of dengue occurred more frequently among those younger than 10 years (3.12% vs 1.92%) and those with dengue virus 2 infection (7.65% vs 2.42%), with a delay to first attendance >2 days (3.18% vs 0.82%) and with ≤4 years of formal education (2.02% vs 1.46%). The risk of hospitalization was higher among those aged 6-10 years old (OR 4.57; 95% CI 1.43-29.96) and those who were infected by dengue virus 2 (OR 6.36; 95% CI 2.52-16.06), who lived in the Northeast region (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.11-2.10) and who delayed first attendance by >5 days (composite OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.33-8.9). CONCLUSIONS In Brazil, the occurrence of severe dengue and related hospitalization is associated with being younger than 10 years old, being infected by dengue virus 2 or 3, living in the Northeast region (the poorest and the second most populated) and delaying first attendance for more than 2 days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcelo N. Burattini
- Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Divisão de Informática Médica, São Paulo/SP, Brazil
- Hospital São Paulo, Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo/SP, Brazil
- E-mail: //
| | - Luis F. Lopez
- Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Divisão de Informática Médica, São Paulo/SP, Brazil
- CIARA, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Francisco A.B. Coutinho
- Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Divisão de Informática Médica, São Paulo/SP, Brazil
| | - João B. Siqueira
- Universidade Federal de Goiás, Instituto Tropical de Patologia e Saúde Pública, Goiânia/GO, Brazil
| | | | - Elsa Sarti
- Sanofi Pasteur Latinoamerica, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Eduardo Massad
- Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Divisão de Informática Médica, São Paulo/SP, Brazil
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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15
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Massad
- Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Paulista School of Medicine, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Raphael Ximenes
- Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Marcos Amaku
- Faculty of Veterinarian Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, University of Umea, Umea, 901 85, Sweden; Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang University, Singapore.
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16
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de Campos Guerra JC, Mourão MA, França CN, da Rosa CDP, Burattini MN. Impact of coagulation in the development of thromboembolic events in patients with spinal cord injury. Spinal Cord 2014; 52:327-32. [PMID: 24513719 DOI: 10.1038/sc.2013.170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2013] [Revised: 12/17/2013] [Accepted: 12/23/2013] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
STUDY DESIGN Although the knowledge described about risk factors and venous thromboembolism (VT) in the general population, the impact of these factors in the development of thromboembolic events in patients with spinal injury (SI) caused by spinal cord injury (SCI) is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE Evaluate the impact of risk factors in the development of thromboembolic events in patients with SCI. SETTING Brazil, São Paulo. METHODS Observational, prospective and cross-study. Eligible patients (n=100) had SI by SCI, >18 years. The degree of motor and sensory lesion was evaluated based on American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale (AIS). Blood samples were collected for coagulation exams, hemogram, laboratory and biochemical analyses. Ultrasonography analyzes were performed from deep and superficial venous systems of lower limbs. Quantitative real-time PCR experiments were performed in order to investigate mutations in the prothrombin (G20210A) and Leiden factor V (G1691A) genes. RESULTS The main finding of this study was the higher occurrence of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in patients with Leiden factor V and hyperhomocysteinemia. There was no association between SI for DVT, VT and thrombophilia. Also, there was no relation between lupus anticoagulant and anti-cardiolipin. CONCLUSION There is an important difference in the incidence of DVT in patients with SI by acute and chronic SCI. Therefore, the conduct of the investigation for thrombophilia should be based on clinical factors, risk factors for DVT and family history of thrombosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- J C de Campos Guerra
- 1] Department of Pathology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil [2] Department of Clinical Pathology, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - M A Mourão
- Clinics Hospital, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - C N França
- 1] Cardiology Division, Department of Medicine, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil [2] Santo Amaro University, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - C D P da Rosa
- Institute of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - M N Burattini
- 1] Department of Pathology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil [2] Department of Medicine, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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Olívêr L, Burattini MN, Coutinho FAB, Coelho GE, Struchiner CJ, Massad E. A negative correlation between dengue and bushfires in Brazil. J Environ Health 2014; 76:66-67. [PMID: 24645415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
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Chaib E, Amaku M, Coutinho FAB, Lopez LF, Burattini MN, D’Albuquerque LAC, Massad E. A mathematical model for optimizing the indications of liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Theor Biol Med Model 2013; 10:60. [PMID: 24139285 PMCID: PMC4016553 DOI: 10.1186/1742-4682-10-60] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2013] [Accepted: 10/10/2013] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The criteria for organ sharing has developed a system that prioritizes liver transplantation (LT) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have the highest risk of wait-list mortality. In some countries this model allows patients only within the Milan Criteria (MC, defined by the presence of a single nodule up to 5 cm, up to three nodules none larger than 3 cm, with no evidence of extrahepatic spread or macrovascular invasion) to be evaluated for liver transplantation. This police implies that some patients with HCC slightly more advanced than those allowed by the current strict selection criteria will be excluded, even though LT for these patients might be associated with acceptable long-term outcomes. METHODS We propose a mathematical approach to study the consequences of relaxing the MC for patients with HCC that do not comply with the current rules for inclusion in the transplantation candidate list. We consider overall 5-years survival rates compatible with the ones reported in the literature. We calculate the best strategy that would minimize the total mortality of the affected population, that is, the total number of people in both groups of HCC patients that die after 5 years of the implementation of the strategy, either by post-transplantation death or by death due to the basic HCC. We illustrate the above analysis with a simulation of a theoretical population of 1,500 HCC patients with tumor size exponentially. The parameter λ obtained from the literature was equal to 0.3. As the total number of patients in these real samples was 327 patients, this implied in an average size of 3.3 cm and a 95% confidence interval of [2.9; 3.7]. The total number of available livers to be grafted was assumed to be 500. RESULTS With 1500 patients in the waiting list and 500 grafts available we simulated the total number of deaths in both transplanted and non-transplanted HCC patients after 5 years as a function of the tumor size of transplanted patients. The total number of deaths drops down monotonically with tumor size, reaching a minimum at size equals to 7 cm, increasing from thereafter. With tumor size equals to 10 cm the total mortality is equal to the 5 cm threshold of the Milan criteria. CONCLUSION We concluded that it is possible to include patients with tumor size up to 10 cm without increasing the total mortality of this population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleazar Chaib
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver and Pancreas Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
| | - Marcos Amaku
- Department of Medical Informatics, LIM 01, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
| | - Francisco AB Coutinho
- Department of Medical Informatics, LIM 01, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
| | - Luis F Lopez
- Department of Medical Informatics, LIM 01, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- Department of Medical Informatics, LIM 01, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
| | - Luiz AC D’Albuquerque
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver and Pancreas Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
| | - Eduardo Massad
- Department of Medical Informatics, LIM 01, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo CEP 01246-903, Brazil
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Abstract
Some of the vector-borne infections with public health importance involve an animal reservoir. This work describes, through a compartimental model, the dynamics of leishmaniasis considering the interactions between the three populations involved, namely the sandfly, the domestic dog (as the principal intermediate host), and the human population. An expression for the Basic Reproduction Ratio (R0), which takes into account the time delay representing the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite in the vector, is presented. Numerical simulation, equilibrium and stability analysis provided insights into the transmission dynamics of the infection that can help in the design of control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcelo N. Burattini
- School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo and LIM01 HCFMUSP, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, Brazil
- Infectious Diseases Clinics, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Brazil
| | | | - Luis F. Lopez
- School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo and LIM01 HCFMUSP, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, Brazil
- Infectious Diseases Clinics, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Brazil
| | - Eduardo Massad
- Infectious Diseases Clinics, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Brazil
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Abstract
The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0)>1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM 01-HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil.
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De Almeida GMD, Costa SF, Melhem M, Motta AL, Szeszs MW, Miyashita F, Pierrotti LC, Rossi F, Burattini MN. Rhodotorula spp. isolated from blood cultures: clinical and microbiological aspects. Med Mycol 2009; 46:547-56. [PMID: 19180725 DOI: 10.1080/13693780801972490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The emergence of less common fungal pathogens has been increasingly reported in the last decade. We describe 25 cases of Rhodotorula spp. isolated from blood cultures at a large Brazilian tertiary teaching hospital from 1996-2004. We also investigated the in vitro activity of four antifungal drugs, using a standardized method. The median age of patients was 43 years. The majority of patients (88%) had a central venous catheter (CVC) and 10 (40%) were recipients of a bone marrow transplant. The episode was classified as a bloodstream infection (BSI) in 80% of the patients. Amphotericin B deoxycholate was the most common antifungal used and CVC was removed in 89.5% of the patients. Death occurred in four patients (17.4%), all classified as BSI. All strains were identified as R. mucilaginosa by conventional methods. Misidentification of the species was observed in 20% and 5% of the strains with the Vitek Yeast Biochemical Card and API 20C AUX systems, respectively. Amphotericin B demonstrated good in vitro activity (MIC50/90, 0.5 microg/ml) and the MICs for fluconazole were high for all strains (MIC50/90, >64 microg/ml).
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Affiliation(s)
- Gisele M Duboc De Almeida
- Microbiology Laboratory, Division of Central Laboratory, LIM 03 Department of Pathology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
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Gonçalves MAG, Randi G, Arslan A, Villa LL, Burattini MN, Franceschi S, Donadi EA, Massad E. HPV type infection in different anogenital sites among HIV-positive Brazilian women. Infect Agent Cancer 2008; 3:5. [PMID: 18341690 PMCID: PMC2358880 DOI: 10.1186/1750-9378-3-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2006] [Accepted: 03/14/2008] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) types, and risk factors for HPV positivity across cervix, vagina and anus, we conducted a study among 138 women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). GOAL Compare the prevalence of different HPV types and the risk factors for HPV positivity in three sites. RESULTS The most frequently detected HPV types in all sites were, in decreasing order, HPV16, 53, 18, 61 and 81. Agreement between the cervix and vagina was good (kappa 0.60 - 0.80) for HPV16 and 53 and excellent (Kappa > 0.80) for HPV18 and 61. HPV positivity was inversely associated with age for all combinations including the anal site. CONCLUSION In HIV positive women, HPV18 is the most spread HPV type found in combinations of anal and genital sites. The relationship of anal to genital infection has implications for the development of anal malignancies. Thus, the efficacy of the current HPV vaccine may be considered not only for the cervix, but also for prevention of HPV18 anal infection among immunossuppressed individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Giorgia Randi
- Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche "Mario Negri", Milan, Italy
| | - Annie Arslan
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Luisa L Villa
- Department of Virology, Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Marcelo N Burattini
- School of Medicine, Department of Pathology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | - Eduardo Massad
- School of Medicine, Department of Pathology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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Jukemura EM, Burattini MN, Pereira CAP, Braga ALF, Medeiros EAS. Control of multi-resistant bacteria and ventilator-associated pneumonia: is it possible with changes in antibiotics? Braz J Infect Dis 2007; 11:418-22. [PMID: 17873997 DOI: 10.1590/s1413-86702007000400010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2007] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Potent antimicrobial agents have been developed as a response to the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, which especially affect patients with prolonged hospitalization in Intensive Care Units (ICU) and who had been previously treated with antimicrobials, especially third-generation cephalosporins. This study was to determine how changes in the empirical treatment of infections in ICU patients affect the incidence of Gram-negative bacteria species and their susceptibility to antimicrobials, and examine the impact of these changes on nosocomial infections. A prospective interventional study was performed in a university hospital during two periods: 1) First period (September 1999 to February 2000); and 2) Second period (August 2000 to December 2000); empirical treatment was changed from ceftriaxone and/or ceftazidime in the first period to piperacillin/tazobactam in the second. ICU epidemiological and infection control rates, as well as bacterial isolates from upper airways were analyzed. Ceftazidime consumption dropped from 34.83 to 0.85 DDD/1000 patients per day (p=0.004). Piperacillin/tazobactam was originally not available; its consumption reached 157.07 DDD/1000 patients per day in the second period (p=0.0002). Eighty-seven patients and 66 patients were evaluated for upper airway colonization in the first and second periods, respectively. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of K. pneumoniae (p=0.004) and P. mirabilis (p=0.036), restoration of K. pneumoniae susceptibility to cephalosporins (p<0.0001) and reduction of ventilator-associated pneumonia rates (p<0.0001). However, there was an increase in P. aeruginosa incidence (p=0.005) and increases in ceftazidime (p=0.003) and meropenem (p<0.0001) susceptibilities. Changing antimicrobial selective pressure on multi-resistant Gram-negative bacteria helps control ventilator-associated pneumonia and decreases antimicrobial resistance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisa M Jukemura
- Infectious Diseases Division, Internal Medicine Department, School of Medicine, Federal University of São Paulo, Brazil.
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Coutinho FAB, Burattini MN, Lopez LF, Massad E. Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue. Bull Math Biol 2006; 68:2263-82. [PMID: 16952019 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-006-9108-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2005] [Accepted: 02/23/2006] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by R, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when R is greater than 1 it does. By not invading the population we mean that the number of infected individuals always decrease in subsequent seasons of transmission. Using the same threshold, all the qualitative features of the resulting epidemic can be understood. Our model suggests that trans-ovarial infection in the mosquitoes facilitates dengue overwintering. We also explain the delay between the peak in the mosquitoes population and the peak in dengue cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- F A B Coutinho
- School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo and LIM 01/HCFMUSP, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, CEP 01246-903, SP, Brazil
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Massad E, Coutinho FAB, Burattini MN, Lopez LF, Struchiner CJ. The impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence. Med Hypotheses 2006; 66:907-11. [PMID: 16442745 DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2005.11.042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2005] [Revised: 11/16/2005] [Accepted: 11/22/2005] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
A theoretical framework is proposed on which some hypotheses related to the impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence can be tested. For this, a linear increase of risk behaviour with vaccine efficacy is assumed. This is based on the hypothesis that people are prone to relax preventive measures by knowing that they and their partners are vaccinated and that this effect is more intense the more effective the vaccine is known to be. An additional, and perhaps more important hypothesis is related to the theoretical possibility that increased risk behaviour of some vaccinated individuals in partially protected populations could act as a selective pressure toward more virulent HIV strains. Those hypotheses were tested by a mathematical model that considers three different HIV strains competing against each other in a population partially protected by imperfect vaccines of distinct efficacies. Simulations of the model demonstrated that, under the above hypotheses, there is a shift in HIV virulence towards more aggressive strains with increase in vaccine efficacy, associated with a marked reduction in the total amount of transmission and, consequently, in the prevalence of HIV. Potential ways for further testing the theory/model and the implications of the results are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo and LIM 01/HCFMUSP, Brazil.
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Massad E, Coutinho FAB, Burattini MN, Lopez LF. The Eyam plague revisited: did the village isolation change transmission from fleas to pulmonary? Med Hypotheses 2005; 63:911-5. [PMID: 15488668 DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2004.03.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2004] [Accepted: 03/17/2004] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Back in the 17th century the Derbyshire village of Eyam fell victim to the Black Death, which is thought to have arrived from London in some old clothes brought by a travelling tailor. The village population was 350 at the commencement of plague, of which only 83 survived. Led by the church leaders, the village community realized that the whole surrounding region was at risk from the epidemic, and therefore decided to seal themselves off from the other surrounding villages. In the first 275 days of the outbreak, transmission was predominantly from infected fleas to susceptible humans. From then onward, mortality sharply increased, which indicates a changing in transmission pattern. We hypothesize that the confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission among humans. This would be more consistent with pulmonary plague, a deadlier form of the disease. In order to test the above hypothesis we designed a mathematical model for plague dynamics, incorporating both the indirect (fleas-rats-humans) and direct (human-to-human) transmissions of the infection. Our results show remarkable agreement between data and the model, lending support to our hypotheses. The Eyam plague episode is celebrated as a remarkable act of collective self-sacrifice. However, to the best of our knowledge, there were no evidence before that the confinement actually increased the burden payed by the commoners. In the light of our results, it can be said that the hypothesis that confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission is plausible.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Medical Informatics, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP 01246-903, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil.
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Massad E, Burattini MN, Lopez LF, Coutinho FAB. Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: the case of the SARS epidemics. Med Hypotheses 2005; 65:17-22. [PMID: 15893110 PMCID: PMC7116954 DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2004] [Accepted: 09/16/2004] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number, R0, were 1.2 for Hong Kong and 1.32 for Toronto (Canada). The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada). In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). Although SARS can be a devastating infection, early recognition, prompt isolation, and appropriate precaution measures, can be very effective to limit its spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Massad
- School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil.
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Caiaffa Filho HH, Almeida GD, Oliveira GA, Sarahyba L, Mamizuka EM, Burattini MN. Molecular characterization of van genes found in vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus spp. isolated from the Hospital das Clínicas, FMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil. Braz J Infect Dis 2004; 7:173-4. [PMID: 14499039 DOI: 10.1590/s1413-86702003000300001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Vancomycin-resistant enterococci strains (VRE) is an important pathogen related with hospital infections in many countries, presenting limited or no therapeutic options for treating serious infections. VRE has presented some different genotypes been VanA and VanB considered to be the most important in hospital environments. In the present study the authors investigated the prevalence of van genes (A, B an C) among clinical isolates of VRE in a five month period at a large tertiary hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results showed the presence of vanA, but not vanB or vanC in all 43 strains of E. faecalis and five E. faecium studied. The results bring an important issue, due to the possibility of resistance spread of vanA genes, to be monitored and solved by the hospital infection control team and the microbiology and molecular biology laboratories at tertiary Hospitals.
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Affiliation(s)
- H H Caiaffa Filho
- Laboratory of Medical Investigation LIM03, Pathology Department of the Medical School of University of São Paulo, Brazil.
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Zanetta DMT, Cabrera EMS, Azevedo RS, Burattini MN, Massad E. Seroprevalence of rubella antibodies in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, 8 years after the introduction of vaccine. Vaccine 2003; 21:3795-800. [PMID: 12922113 DOI: 10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00315-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
Rubella vaccine was introduced in the official immunization calendar of the State of São Paulo, in 1992, at 15 months of age, following a mass vaccination targeting all children between 1 and 10 years of age. This mixed strategy was designed taking into account serological data and mathematical models to estimate the optimal ages for vaccination. To evaluate the efficacy of routine vaccination on rubella infection in São José do Rio Preto, State of São Paulo, 8 years after the introduction of vaccine, a seroprevalence survey was carried out in December 2000, comprising 1,536 subjects aging from 6 months to 25 years. Rubella specific IgG was detected in blood samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). From 18 months to 5 years of age (covered by a mass vaccination campaign 6 months before the study) the seroprevalence was above 90%. From 6 to 8 years of age (vaccinated by routine schedule at 15 months), the seroprevalence was 76%. From 9 to 18 years of age (vaccinated at the mass campaign that introduced the vaccine 8 years before) the seroprevalence was about 85%. After 20 years of age, protection was acquired by previous infection, as they were not covered by any vaccine program. From 20 to 25 years of age, the seroprevalence was 70%. As the seroprevalence remains low at ages not vaccinated, it should be expected low infection rates at this age window. Despite this, the present situation deserves care, as routine vaccination is given a protection below the minimum level necessary (80%). The efficacy of the proposed strategy depends on better routine vaccination coverage. A second dose of vaccine should also be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirce M T Zanetta
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine of São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil.
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Amaku M, Coutinho FAB, Azevedo RS, Burattini MN, Lopez LF, Massad E. Vaccination against rubella: analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2003; 67:051907. [PMID: 12786178 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.67.051907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2002] [Revised: 01/13/2003] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination program in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in a steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland, and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Amaku
- Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Prof. Dr. Orlando Marques de Paiva 87, São Paulo, SP-05508-000, Brazil.
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Gonçalves MAG, Burattini MN, Donadi EA, Massad E. Anogenital warts contributing to the risk of squamous intraepithelial lesions among HIV-positive women of São Paulo, Brazil. Int J STD AIDS 2003; 14:309-13. [PMID: 12803937 DOI: 10.1258/095646203321605503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Unsafe sexual practices may expose HIV-positive women to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) and to infection with oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types. A cross sectional study of 141 HIV-positive women was designed to evaluate risk factors for the development of cervico-vaginal SIL and HPV-DNA detection/typing. Uni- and multivariate forward stepwise analysis was used to determine the relationship between risk variables and HPV infection and between risk behaviour, HPV and HIV infection with development of SIL. Univariate analysis showed that HPV-DNA infection was related to previous and recurrent anogenital warts, male genital warts and cytological alteration. For final multivariate analysis, both HPV type (undetermined- and high-risk, OR=29.3 and 112.0, respectively) were statistically associated (P=0.019) with high-grade cervico-vaginal SIL. The presence of anogenital warts as well as high- and undetermined-risk HPV infection may alert to cyto/histopathological alterations. These results point out the importance of the use of barrier methods and routine early genitoscopy/treatment for HIV-infected partners.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Alice G Gonçalves
- Division of Clinical Immunology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, University of São Paulo, Brazil.
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de Jesus AR, Silva A, Santana LB, Magalhães A, de Jesus AA, de Almeida RP, Rêgo MAV, Burattini MN, Pearce EJ, Carvalho EM. Clinical and immunologic evaluation of 31 patients with acute schistosomiasis mansoni. J Infect Dis 2002; 185:98-105. [PMID: 11756987 DOI: 10.1086/324668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 135] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2001] [Revised: 08/27/2001] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Thirty-one patients with acute schistosomiasis were evaluated clinically and immunologically. Cytokine levels were determined in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) supernatants. Levels of total and antigen-specific IgE, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, and immune complexes were measured in serum samples. Clinical findings included general symptoms, liver damage, pulmonary involvement, and pericarditis. All patients had eosinophilia. Immune complexes were detected in 55% of the patients (mean+/-SD, 7.8+/-7.6 microg Eq/mL) and were associated with cough, dyspnea, and abnormal chest radiographic findings. Levels (mean +/- SD) of TNF-alpha (1349.3+/-767.6 pg/mL), interleukin (IL)-1 (2683+/-1270 pg/mL), and IL-6 (382 +/- 52.3 pg/mL) were elevated in PBMC. Serum TNF-alpha levels were elevated in 87% of the patients and were associated with abdominal pain. Higher interferon-gamma levels were detected in PBMC of patients with acute disease than in those of patients with chronic schistosomiasis; IL-5 levels were higher in those with chronic disease. Low IL-5 levels were associated with weight loss. Proinflammatory cytokines and immune complexes with low Th2 responses might explain the immunopathogenesis of acute schistosomiasis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amelia Ribeiro de Jesus
- Serviço de Imunologia, Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Bahia, Brazil
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Yu AL, Amaku M, Burattini MN, Massad E, Azevedo RS. Varicella transmission in two samples of children with different social behaviour in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Epidemiol Infect 2001; 127:493-500. [PMID: 11811883 PMCID: PMC2869775 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268801006124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
In order to establish the differences in transmission pattern of varicella-zoster virus (VZV), a comparative seroepidemiological study was carried out in two different children samples. Children aged 1-11 years, were randomly selected from state schools of São Paulo city, Brazil. Individuals aged 1-15 years were sampled by cluster from Caieiras city. Children aged 3 years or under from Caieiras were not attending school, while those from São Paulo were attending all-day nurseries or kindergarten. The presence of antibodies to VZV was analysed by ELISA technique. The force of infection and contact rate were determined by mathematical techniques. The average age of first infection was 2.87 +/- 0.14 years and 4.07 +/- 0.47 years for Sao Paulo and Caieiras, respectively. The average force of infection estimated was 0.29 year(-1) for São Paulo and was 0.26 year(-1) for Caieiras. The proportion of seropositivity and the force of infection were higher in São Paulo school children up to 3 years of age compared with Caieiras children, where the social contact starts later. In conclusion, social changes affecting contact among children may influence varicella epidemiology.
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Affiliation(s)
- A L Yu
- LIM 01/HCFMUSP, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil
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Abstract
This paper considers the transmission of rabies to domestic livestock by vampire bats. Vampire bats act as ectoparasites on cattle both by ingesting a small amount of blood every night and by prolonging bleeding by the action of anticoagulant substances in their saliva. In addition to this parasitic action bats may also transmit rabies, inflicting important losses on affected herds by the inevitable mortality due to the infection. We modeled this complex interaction and we also demonstrate that bat control measures are more effective in reducing rabies prevalence and mortality by rabies than cattle vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- School of Medicine, The University of Sao Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, SP 01246-903, Brazil
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Coutinho FA, Lopez LF, Burattini MN, Massad E. Modelling the natural history of HIV infection in individuals and its epidemiological implications. Bull Math Biol 2001; 63:1041-62. [PMID: 11732175 DOI: 10.1006/bulm.2001.0257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
The variation of viraemia in the natural course of HIV infection is expected to have major influence on the probability of transmission and, consequently, on the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. In this paper we propose a model which takes into account the time evolution of HIV viraemia (measured as HIV-RNA copies per ml of blood) in an infected individual and its impact on the threshold for the establishment of an endemic level, and mainly on the relative contribution of each of the clinical phases of the infection to the total transmission of HIV per infected individual. We consider that an infected individual passes through three phases of viraemia. The first phase, which lasts for 6-7 weeks, is characterized by very high viraemia. In the second phase, which lasts about 10 years, the viraemia is much lower, increasing again in the last phase, which lasts up to two years, and ends in full-blown AIDS. We show that the relative contribution of each phase to the total transmission of HIV is very sensitive to the model we assume for the dependence of the transmissibility of HIV on the viral load. For instance, if we assume that transmissibility is proportional to the decimal logarithm of viraemia, then the second phase predominates always. Due to the epidemiological importance of this fact, it is clear that further improvement on virological research to better understand the dependence of HIV transmissibility on the viral concentration in biological fluids is necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- F A Coutinho
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, and LIM01/HCFMUSP. Av.Dr. Arnaldo 455, CEP 01246-903, SP, Brazil
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Zanetta RA, Amaku M, Azevedo RS, Zanetta DM, Burattini MN, Massad E. Optimal age for vaccination against measles in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, taking into account the mother's serostatus. Vaccine 2001; 20:226-34. [PMID: 11567768 DOI: 10.1016/s0264-410x(01)00267-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
In order to investigate if the changing levels of measles antibody in women resulting from extensive vaccination programs influence the susceptibility of children, we measured the seroprevalence of measles virus antibody of children in the first year of life and of their mothers. We compared maternal antibody decay of two groups of children: those whose mothers were 25 years old or more (mothers born in the pre-vaccination era), and less than 25 years old (mothers born in the vaccination era). Therefore, the 25-year-age cut-off was chosen to distinguish between vaccinated and non-vaccinated mothers. We also compared the immunogenicity of measles vaccine in children from 6 to 12 months of age, in these two groups and also according to their mother's serostatus. The optimal age of vaccination for a routine program was estimated by means of mathematical models. This study was carried out in a sample of 1216 mothers and their respective children. Our results indicate that the optimal age for vaccination of the whole sample was 15 months, 17 months for children born from older mothers, 14 months for children born from younger mothers, 17 months for children born from seropositive mothers and 12 months for children born from seronegative mothers. Therefore, a change to an earlier age of routine vaccination is not justified by our results.
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Affiliation(s)
- R A Zanetta
- Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo and LIM-01 HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil
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Abstract
Yellow fever and dengue are viral infections that in urban centres are transmitted by the same arthropod vector, a mosquito of the genus Aedes. In order to estimate the risk of an epidemic of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area we calculated the threshold in the basic reproduction number, R0, of dengue, above which any single sylvatic yellow fever-infected individual will trigger an urban yellow fever epidemic. Specifically, we analysed the relationship between the extrinsic incubation period and the duration of viraemia, from which it is possible to define the R0 for dengue that would also suggest an outbreak potential for yellow fever. We also calculated the critical proportion of people to vaccinate against yellow fever in order to prevent an epidemic in a dengue-endemic area. The theory proposed is illustrated by the case of São Paulo State in southern Brazil, where dengue is endemic and the risk of urban yellow fever is already imminent.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM01/HCFMUSP, Av. Dr Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, SP01246-903, Brazil.
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Yu AL, Costa JM, Amaku M, Pannuti CS, Souza VA, Zanetta DM, Burattini MN, Massad E, Azevedo RS. Three year seroepidemiological study of varicella-zoster virus in São Paulo, Brazil. Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo 2000; 42:125-8. [PMID: 10887369 DOI: 10.1590/s0036-46652000000300002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
A serosurvey of varicella has been carried out in children attending the public school network of São Paulo city, Brazil, from 1992 to 1994. This study was performed in order to establish the age related prevalence of antibodies against varicella-zoster virus (VZV) and its age specific transmission dynamics pattern in these children. Among 2500 schools in the city of São Paulo public network, 304 were randomly selected; 7 children of a given age (ranging from 1 to 15 years) were randomly selected in each school, and blood samples were obtained by fingerprick into filter paper. Blood eluates were analyzed for the presence of antibodies to VZV by ELISA. Proportion of seropositivity were calculated for each age group. Samples consisted of 1768 individuals in 1992, 1758 in 1993, and 1817 in 1994, resulting in 5343 eluates. A high proportion of seropositive children from 1 to 3 years of age was observed, ascending until 10 years of age and reaching a plateau around 90% afterwards. VZV transmission in this community was similar along the three years of the study. In children attending public schools in the city of São Paulo, contact with VZV occurs in early childhood. If immunization against VZV is considered it should be introduced as soon as possible.
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Affiliation(s)
- A L Yu
- Departamento de Patologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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Soni LM, Burattini MN, Pignatari AC, Gompertz OF, Colombo AL. Comparative study of agar diffusion test and the NCCLS macrobroth method for in vitro susceptibility testing of Candida spp. Mycopathologia 2000; 145:131-5. [PMID: 10685448 DOI: 10.1023/a:1007068826861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
We performed a prospective double-blind study to evaluate the correlation between inhibition zones obtained by a disk-diffusion test, using Neo-sensitabs of fluconazole (Rosco Diagnostica), and the MICs generated by the NCCLS macrobroth dilution assay. Eighty clinical isolates, representing 5 of the clinically relevant species of Candida, were tested simultaneously by both methods. A clear inverse correlation was found between the results obtained by both tests (r = -0.69). In addition, there was high degree of agreement between methods in the identification of susceptible isolates. However, the resistance definition by disk-diffusion test had a positive predictive value of only 17%. Our data support the hypothesis that Rosco Fluconazole Neo-sensitabs have potential as a screening test for the identification of Candida isolates susceptible to fluconazole. Resistant isolates should be further investigated by standardized broth procedures.
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Affiliation(s)
- L M Soni
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina-UNIFESP, Brazil
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41
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Gonçalves MA, Massad E, Burattini MN, Villa LL. Relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping and genital neoplasia in HIV-positive patients of Santos City, São Paulo, Brazil. Int J STD AIDS 1999; 10:803-7. [PMID: 10639061 DOI: 10.1258/0956462991913583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Among HIV-positive women, infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types is known to be more frequent and persistent, as well as a greater prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. This study aims to characterize, for the first time in Brazil, HPV presence and types among HIV-positive women of a high-risk population for genital intraepithelial neoplasia (GIN) development. A non-anonymous, voluntary, cross-sectional epidemiological survey was conducted, from June 1996 to April 1997, among 141 HIV-positive women followed at the Center of Reference in AIDS (CRAIDS). They were submitted to gynaecological examination, cytological screening and biopsies whenever necessary, for GIN and HPV DNA detection through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique. Positive HPV DNA were found in 80.8% patients. Two or more HPV types were detected in 45% of the samples. The most frequent HPV types detected were 16, 18 (30.5%); 61, 53 (24.4%), and non-identified types (18.7%). According to the oncogenic potential, 34.8% were considered of high-risk types. Among these HIV-positive patients, a great variety of HPV types, including high-risk types, was found in anogenital environment, as well as among young women, a great prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. Thus, it should strengthen the need for a periodical careful gynaecological examination among those women.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The State of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, was virtually free of measles from 1987 until the end of 1996 when the number of cases started to rise. It reached alarming numbers in the middle of 1997 and local health authorities decided to implement a mass vaccination campaign. METHODS Fuzzy Decision Making techniques are applied to the design of the vaccination campaign. RESULTS The mass vaccination strategy chosen changed the natural course of the epidemic. It had a significant impact on the epidemic in the metropolitan area of São Paulo city, but a second epidemic in the State's interior forced the public health authorities to implement a second mass vaccination campaign 2 months after the first. CONCLUSIONS Fuzzy Logic techniques are a powerful tool for the design of control strategies against epidemics of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil
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Massad E, Rozman M, Azevedo RS, Silveira AS, Takey K, Yamamoto YI, Strazza L, Ferreira MM, Burattini MN, Burattini MN. Seroprevalence of HIV, HCV and syphilis in Brazilian prisoners: preponderance of parenteral transmission. Eur J Epidemiol 1999; 15:439-45. [PMID: 10442469 DOI: 10.1023/a:1007523027876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Between November 1993 and April 1994, our physicians' team interviewed and took blood samples of 631 prisoners randomly drawn from the largest prison of South America, which counted about 4700 inmates at that time. The interview consisted of questions related to risk behaviour for HIV infection, and the subjects were asked to provide blood for serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis. Our main purpose was to investigate the relationship between HCV and injecting drug use as related to HIV seropositivity. Participation in the study was voluntary and confidentiality was guaranteed. Overall prevalences found were as follows: HIV: 16% (95% confidence interval (CI): 13-19%); HCV: 34% (95% CI: 30-38%), and syphilis: 18% (95% CI: 15-21%). Acknowledged use of ever injecting drug was 22% and no other parenteral risk was reported. Our results, as compared with other studies in the same prison, suggest that HIV prevalence has been stable in recent years, and that the major risk factor for HIV infection in this population is parenteral exposure by injecting drug use.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Massad
- NUPAIDS, The University of São Paulo, Brazil
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Zanetta DMT, Strazza L, Azevedo RS, Carvalho HB, Massad E, Menezes RX, Ferreira DP, Burattini MN. HIV Infection and Related Risk Behaviours in a Disadvantaged Youth Institution of São Paulo, Brazil. Int J STD AIDS 1999. [DOI: 10.1177/095646249901000205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
In order to study the prevalence of HIV and related risky behaviours among disadvantaged youth, we interviewed and bled, between December 1994 and April 1995, 1122 young males and 93 young females who were serving time in FEBEM, a state institution that cares for homeless and offender youth of São Paulo, Brazil. Our questionnaire covered the following areas: sexual practices and use of illicit drugs; knowledge of HIV and STDs and their prevention; and myths and beliefs about AIDS. Seroprevalence of HIV was assessed and related with risk-taking behaviours by means of uni-, bi- and multivariate analysis. We found 2.6% of the males and 10.3% of the females to be positive to HIV. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies resulted in 5.9% for males and 4.6% for females, respectively. The risk for parenterally transmitted HIV among the males was higher than that for sexually related transmission. The inverse relationship was found among the females.
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Affiliation(s)
- D M T Zanetta
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - L Strazza
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - R S Azevedo
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - H B Carvalho
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - E Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - R X Menezes
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - D P Ferreira
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - M N Burattini
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455, CEP: 01246-903, São Paulo, Brazil
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45
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Zanetta DM, Strazza L, Azevedo RS, Carvalho HB, Massad E, Menezes RX, Ferreira DP, Burattini MN. HIV infection and related risk behaviours in a disadvantaged youth institution of São Paulo, Brazil. Int J STD AIDS 1999; 10:98-104. [PMID: 10215114 DOI: 10.1258/0956462991913718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
In order to study the prevalence of HIV and related risky behaviours among disadvantaged youth, we interviewed and bled, between December 1994 and April 1995, 1122 young males and 93 young females who were serving time in FEBEM, a state institution that cares for homeless and offender youth of São Paulo, Brazil. Our questionnaire covered the following areas: sexual practices and use of illicit drugs; knowledge of HIV and STDs and their prevention; and myths and beliefs about AIDS. Seroprevalence of HIV was assessed and related with risk-taking behaviours by means of uni-, bi- and multivariate analysis. We found 2.6% of the males and 10.3% of the females to be positive to HIV. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies resulted in 5.9% for males and 4.6% for females, respectively. The risk for parenterally transmitted HIV among the males was higher than that for sexually related transmission. The inverse relationship was found among the females.
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Affiliation(s)
- D M Zanetta
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil
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46
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Milan EP, Burattini MN, Kallás EG, Fischmann O, Costa PR, Colombo AL. Azole resistance among oral Candida species isolates from AIDS patients under ketoconazole exposure. Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis 1998; 32:211-6. [PMID: 9884838 DOI: 10.1016/s0732-8893(98)00107-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
This is a prospective study designed to investigate species distribution and azole susceptibility profile among Candida spp. isolated from the oral cavities of AIDS patients. One hundred thirty-two AIDS patients sequentially admitted at a teaching tertiary care hospital were enrolled in this study. Samples were obtained by swabbing the oral cavities of the patients. Yeast isolates were identified by classical methods and the antifungal susceptibility profile was further determined according to the NCCLS microbroth assay. Among all patients with prescriptions of systemic antifungal drugs, ketoconazole had been elected to treat 56% of patients. We found 82% of oral yeast carriage, 22% of them harboring non-albicans species. Overall rates of susceptibility dose dependent/resistance to azoles was 16% for itraconazole, 13% for ketoconazole, and 10% for fluconazole with a high agreement rate among the susceptibility profiles of all isolates tested against the triazoles.
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Affiliation(s)
- E P Milan
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil
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47
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Costa JM, Balby IT, Rocha EJ, da Silva AR, Rebêlo JM, Ferreira LA, Gama ME, Branco MDR, Burattini MN, Soares NDJ. [Comparative study of American tegumentary leishmaniasis between childhood and teenagers from the endemic areas Buriticupu, Maranhao and Corte de Pedra, Bahia, Brazil]. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 1998; 31:279-88. [PMID: 9612019 DOI: 10.1590/s0037-86821998000300005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
A comparative study on children aged 0-15 years, with American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL), in the endemic regions of Buriticupu (MA) and Corte de Pedra (BA), whereby 214 cases were detected between 1982 and 1993, 78 (36.4%) of them originated from Corte de Pedra and 136 (63.6%) from Buriticupu. In Corte de Pedra, most cases were observed in patients aged between 0-5 years. Twenty nine (37.2%) cases; 62% of those were male. In the Buriticupu region, 88 (64.7%) cases occurred in patients of 11-15 years of age, where in 73.8% consisted of male. In both researched regions, brunetts were predominant, with a ratio of 65.4% in Corte de Pedra and 75% in Buriticupu. Twenty six (33.3%) children in the village of Corte de Pedra were farmers, predominantly male (57.7%), generating statistical significance (chi 2 = 11.21). Twenty one (80.8%) farmers were aged 11-15 years. Thirty seven and a half per cent of the children from Buriticupu were students, however, 41 (30.2%) were farmers, representing 39 (44.3%) cases; all of them male. Both in Buriticupu and Corte de Pedra, the unique wound was predominant, corresponding to 57.7% and 53.7%, respectively. The wounding time stood out from one to three months, with 45 (69.2%) cases in Corte de Pedra and 73 (61%) in Buriticupu (chi 2 = 11.82). As to the wound locations, it has been observed that they were most constantly present on the lower limbs, with 77.2% in Corte de Pedra and 58.9% in Buriticupu (chi 2 = 27.9). The cutaneous case mostly found in Corte de Pedra was the ulcerous one (91%). IDRM was positive in 61 (78.2%) children originated from Corte de Pedra, wherein no statistical difference was detected between age ratio and positivity of the test (chi 2 = 0.0669).
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Affiliation(s)
- J M Costa
- Departamento de Patologia do Núcleo de Patologia Tropical e Medicina Social, Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luis, MA
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48
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Rozman M, Massad E, Silveira AS, Azevedo-Neto RS, Takey K, Yamamoto YI, Strazza L, Meneghin P, Ferreira MM, Carvalho HB, Buchalla CM, Schechtman M, Burattini MN. HIV/AIDS in a Brazilian prison. Int J STD AIDS 1998; 9:183-4. [PMID: 9530910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
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49
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Nascimento MDD, Costa JM, Fiori BI, Viana GM, Filho MS, Alvim ADC, Bastos OC, Nakatani M, Reed S, Badaró R, da Silva AR, Burattini MN. [The epidemiological determinant aspects in the maintenance of visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Maranhão, Brazil]. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 1996; 29:233-40. [PMID: 8701042 DOI: 10.1590/s0037-86821996000300003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
The authors analysed the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) aspects in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, from 1982 to 1993. The disease happens to occur predominantly in São Luís Island (MA) and during the epidemic period, town of São Luís was pointed out as the main endemic area. The greatest frequency of cases occurred in 1993, despite the use of insecticide and dogs control. There was predominance of age between 0- to 4-year-old population with 58.04% of cases. Neither the human disease nor the rainfall index had significant seasonal variation. However they were correlated moderately, with high number of cases after the period of great precipitation of rain. After this study, the data obtained will allow a better control of the disease, despite some factors such as: the urbanization, localization and dynamic of transmission in endemic areas in the Maranhão state.
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Affiliation(s)
- M do D Nascimento
- Departamento de Patologia, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, MA, Brasil
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50
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de Carvalho HB, Mesquita F, Massad E, Bueno RC, Lopes GT, Ruiz MA, Burattini MN. HIV and infections of similar transmission patterns in a drug injectors community of Santos, Brazil. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol 1996; 12:84-92. [PMID: 8624766 DOI: 10.1097/00042560-199605010-00012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
To study the prevalence of HIV and infections with related transmission patterns, we interviewed and obtained blood samples from 220 injecting drug users (IDUs), sampled by snowballing, from the city of Santos in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, where the estimated number of IDUs (10,000) comprises approximately 2% of the entire population. Seroprevalence of HIV, hepatitis B and C, syphilis, and HTLV (1 and 2) was assessed and compared with that in 197 blood donors from the same city, matched for age and gender. Risk behavior related to HIV was assessed by a standard questionnaire applied to the IDU sample. Univariate and multivariate analyses of the risk factors were performed. Seroprevalences found were 62% for HIV, 75% for HCV, 75% for HBV, 34% for syphilis, and 25% for HTLV (1 and 2) among IDUs, which compare with 0.0%, 2%, 23%, 12%, and 1% for blood donors, respectively. The risk for parenterally transmitted infections in this IDU community was higher than that for sexually transmitted infections (odds ratio for syphilis, 3.57; hepatitis B, 10.0; and hepatitis C, 100). The results of the mutivariate risk analysis showed that daily rate of ID use >5 times/day (OR = 6.73), not changing behavior to avoid AIDS (OR= 3.28), ID use >15 days/month (OR = 2.72), and ID use in the last 2 months (OR = 2.23) were the risk behaviors significantly associated with HIV infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- H B de Carvalho
- NUPAIDS (Núcleo de Pesquisa em AIDS da USP), São Paulo, Brazil
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