Assisting the implementation of screening for type 1 diabetes by using artificial intelligence on publicly available data

The type 1 diabetes community is coalescing around the benefits and advantages of early screening for disease risk. To be accepted by healthcare providers, regulatory authorities and payers, screening programmes need to show that the testing variables allow accurate risk prediction and that individualised risk-informed monitoring plans are established, as well as operational feasibility, cost-effectiveness and acceptance at population level. Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to contribute to solving these issues, starting with the identification and stratification of at-risk individuals. ASSET (AI for Sustainable Prevention of Autoimmunity in the Society; www.asset.healthcare ) is a public/private consortium that was established to contribute to research around screening for type 1 diabetes and particularly to how AI can drive the implementation of a precision medicine approach to disease prevention. ASSET will additionally focus on issues pertaining to operational implementation of screening. The authors of this article, researchers and clinicians active in the field of type 1 diabetes, met in an open forum to independently debate key issues around screening for type 1 diabetes and to advise ASSET. The potential use of AI in the analysis of longitudinal data from observational cohort studies to inform the design of improved, more individualised screening programmes was also discussed. A key issue was whether AI would allow the research community and industry to capitalise on large publicly available data repositories to design screening programmes that allow the early detection of individuals at high risk and enable clinical evaluation of preventive therapies. Overall, AI has the potential to revolutionise type 1 diabetes screening, in particular to help identify individuals who are at increased risk of disease and aid in the design of appropriate follow-up plans. We hope that this initiative will stimulate further research on this very timely topic.

Early-childhood body mass index and its association with the COVID-19 pandemic, containment measures and islet autoimmunity in children with increased risk for type 1 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to determine whether BMI in early childhood was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, and whether it was associated with the risk for islet autoimmunity.

METHODS

Between February 2018 and May 2023, data on BMI and islet autoimmunity were collected from 1050 children enrolled in the Primary Oral Insulin Trial, aged from 4.0 months to 5.5 years of age. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as 18 March 2020, and a stringency index was used to assess the stringency of containment measures. Islet autoimmunity was defined as either the development of persistent confirmed multiple islet autoantibodies, or the development of one or more islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Multivariate linear mixed-effect, linear and logistic regression methods were applied to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringency index on early-childhood BMI measurements (BMI as a time-varying variable, BMI at 9 months of age and overweight risk at 9 months of age), and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of BMI measurements on islet autoimmunity risk.

RESULTS

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased time-varying BMI (β = 0.39; 95% CI 0.30, 0.47) and overweight risk at 9 months (β = 0.44; 95% CI 0.03, 0.84). During the COVID-19 pandemic, a higher stringency index was positively associated with time-varying BMI (β = 0.02; 95% CI 0.00, 0.04 per 10 units increase), BMI at 9 months (β = 0.13; 95% CI 0.01, 0.25) and overweight risk at 9 months (β = 0.23; 95% CI 0.03, 0.43). A higher age-corrected BMI and overweight risk at 9 months were associated with increased risk for developing islet autoimmunity up to 5.5 years of age (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.32 and HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00, 2.82, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Early-childhood BMI increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and was influenced by the level of restrictions during the pandemic. Controlling for the COVID-19 pandemic, elevated BMI during early childhood was associated with increased risk for childhood islet autoimmunity in children with genetic susceptibility to type 1 diabetes.

Clinical care advice for monitoring of islet autoantibody positive individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes

BACKGROUND/AIM

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease that involves the development of autoantibodies against pancreatic islet beta-cell antigens, preceding clinical diagnosis by a period of preclinical disease activity. As screening activity to identify autoantibody-positive individuals increases, a rise in presymptomatic type 1 diabetes individuals seeking medical attention is expected. Current guidance on how to monitor these individuals in a safe but minimally invasive way is limited. This article aims to provide clinical guidance for monitoring individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes to reduce the risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis.

METHODS

Expert consensus was obtained from members of the Fr1da, GPPAD, and INNODIA consortia, three European diabetes research groups. The guidance covers both specialist and primary care follow-up strategies.

RESULTS

The guidance outlines recommended monitoring approaches based on age, disease stage and clinical setting. Individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes are best followed up in specialist care. For stage 1, biannual assessments of random plasma glucose and HbA1c are suggested for children, while annual assessments are recommended for adolescents and adults. For stage 2, 3-monthly clinic visits with additional home monitoring are advised. The value of repeat OGTT in stage 1 and the use of continuous glucose monitoring in stage 2 are discussed. Primary care is encouraged to monitor individuals who decline specialist care, following the guidance presented.

CONCLUSIONS

As type 1 diabetes screening programs become more prevalent, effective monitoring strategies are essential to mitigate the risk of complications such as DKA. This guidance serves as a valuable resource for clinicians, providing practical recommendations tailored to an individual's age and disease stage, both within specialist and primary care settings.

Vitamin D insufficiency in infants with increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes: a secondary analysis of the POInT Study

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D insufficiency (VDI) may be a factor in the development of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The aim of this study is to investigate the presence and persistence of VDI in a large cohort of infants with increased risk of developing T1D, in light of the differences in local supplementation guidelines.

METHODS

In the POInT Study, a multicentre primary prevention study between February 2018 and March 2021 in Germany, Poland, Belgium, England and Sweden, including infants aged 4-7 months at high genetic risk of developing β-cell autoantibodies, vitamin D levels were analysed at each study visit from inclusion (4-7 months) until 3 years, with an interval of 2 months (first three visits) or 4-6 months (visits 4-8). The protocol actively promotes vitamin D sufficiency to optimise immune tolerance. VDI was defined as a concentration below 30 ng/mL and was treated according to local guidelines of participating centres. Recovery from VDI was defined as a concentration above or equal to 30 ng/mL on the subsequent visit after VDI.

RESULTS

1050 infants were included, of which 5937 vitamin D levels were available for analyses. VDI was observed in 1464 (24.7%) visits and 507 (46.1%) of these were not resolved at the next visit. The risk of having VDI was independently associated with season (higher in winter), weight (higher with increased weight), age (higher with increased age) and country (higher in England). The risk of not recovering from VDI was independently associated with the season of the previously determined VDI, which was higher if VDI was identified in winter.

CONCLUSIONS

VDI is frequent in infants with increased risk of developing T1D. Treatment guidelines for VDI do not seem effective. Increasing supplementation dosages in this patient population seems warranted, especially during winter, and increasing dosages more aggressively after VDI should be considered.

Factors assessed in the first year of a longitudinal study predict subsequent study visit compliance: the TEDDY study

BACKGROUND

Compliance with a study protocol is central to meeting its research goals. In longitudinal research studies, data loss due to missed visits limit statistical power and introduce bias. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is a longitudinal multinational (US, Finland, Germany, and Sweden) investigation of children at risk for type 1 diabetes (T1D) that seeks to identify the environmental triggers of islet autoimmunity and T1D. The purpose of the current study was to identify sociodemographic variables and maternal characteristics assessed in the first year of TEDDY that were associated with study visit compliance in the subsequent 3 years.

METHODS

Sociodemographic variables, maternal life-style behaviors, post-partum depression, maternal reactions to the child's T1D risk, and study-related variables were collected at child-age 6 months and 15 months. Multiple linear regression was used to examine the association of these variables to study visit compliance in the subsequent 3 years.

RESULTS

Study visit compliance was highest in Sweden (p > 0.001), in children who were their mother's first child (p > 0.001), and whose mothers were older (p > 0.001) and more satisfied with the TEDDY study (p > 0.001). Father participation was also associated with better study visit compliance (p > 0.001). In contrast, children whose mothers smoked (p > 0.001), suffered from post-partum depression (p = 0.034), and were more anxious about their child's T1D risk (p = 0.002), completed fewer visits. Father's study satisfaction was also associated with study visit compliance (p = 0.029); however, it was not significant in models that included maternal study satisfaction.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociodemographic variables, maternal characteristics-including study satisfaction-and fathers' participation in the first year of a longitudinal study were associated with subsequent study visit compliance in a sample of children genetically at-risk for T1D followed for 4 years. This information can inform future strategies designed to improve study visit compliance in longitudinal pediatric studies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00279318, 06/09/2004.

Urban vegetable contamination - The role of adhering particles and their significance for human exposure

While urban-grown vegetables could help combat future food insecurity, the elevated levels of toxic metals in urban soils need to be met with measures that minimise transfer to crops. This study firstly examines soil/dust particle inclusion in leafy vegetables and its contribution to vegetable metals (As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn), using vegetable, soil and dust data from an open-field urban farm in southeastern Sweden. Titanium concentrations were used to assess soil/dust adherence. Results showed that vegetables contained 0.05-1.3 wt% of adhering particles (AP) even after washing. With 0.5 % AP, an adult with an average intake of vegetables could ingest approximately 100 mg of particles per day, highlighting leafy vegetables as a major route for soil/dust ingestion. The presence of adhering particles also significantly contributed to the vegetable concentrations of As (9-20 %), Co (17-20 %), Pb (25-29 %), and Cr (33-34 %). Secondly, data from an indoor experiment was used to characterise root metal uptake from 20 urban soils from Sweden, Denmark, Spain, the UK, and the Czech Republic. Combining particle adherence and root uptake data, vegetable metal concentrations were calculated for the 20 urban soils to represent hypothetical field scenarios for these. Subsequently, average daily doses were assessed for vegetable consumers (adults and 3-6 year old children), distinguishing between doses from adhering particles and root uptake. Risks were evaluated from hazard quotients (HQs; average daily doses/tolerable intakes). Lead was found to pose the greatest risk, where particle ingestion often resulted in HQs > 1 across all assessed scenarios. In summary, since washing was shown to remove only a portion of adhering metal-laden soil/dust particles from leafy vegetation, farmers and urban planners need to consider that measures to limit particle deposition are equally important as cultivating in uncontaminated soil.

Refining the Definition of Stage 1 Type 1 Diabetes: An Ontology-Driven Analysis of the Heterogeneity of Multiple Islet Autoimmunity

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85-92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5-40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was significantly higher than all other groups (P < 0.0001). Intermediate stringency definitions showed intermediate risk and were significantly different than mIA/Any (P < 0.05); however, differences waned over the 2-year follow-up among those who did not subsequently reach higher stringency. Among mIA/Persistent/2 individuals with three autoantibodies, loss of one autoantibody by the 2-year follow-up was associated with accelerated progression. Age was significantly associated with time from seroconversion to mIA/Persistent/2 status and mIA to stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The 15-year risk of progression to type 1 diabetes risk varies markedly from 18 to 88% based on the stringency of mIA definition. While initial categorization identifies highest-risk individuals, short-term follow-up over 2 years may help stratify evolving risk, especially for those with less stringent definitions of mIA.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Development of Islet Autoimmunity in Early Childhood

Importance

The incidence of diabetes in childhood has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Elucidating whether SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with islet autoimmunity, which precedes type 1 diabetes onset, is relevant to disease etiology and future childhood diabetes trends.

Objective

To determine whether there is a temporal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the development of islet autoimmunity in early childhood.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Between February 2018 and March 2021, the Primary Oral Insulin Trial, a European multicenter study, enrolled 1050 infants (517 girls) aged 4 to 7 months with a more than 10% genetically defined risk of type 1 diabetes. Children were followed up through September 2022.

Exposure

SARS-CoV-2 infection identified by SARS-CoV-2 antibody development in follow-up visits conducted at 2- to 6-month intervals until age 2 years from April 2018 through June 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The development of multiple (≥2) islet autoantibodies in follow-up in consecutive samples or single islet antibodies and type 1 diabetes. Antibody incidence rates and risk of developing islet autoantibodies were analyzed.

Results

Consent was obtained for 885 (441 girls) children who were included in follow-up antibody measurements from age 6 months. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies developed in 170 children at a median age of 18 months (range, 6-25 months). Islet autoantibodies developed in 60 children. Six of these children tested positive for islet autoantibodies at the same time as they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and 6 at the visit after having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The sex-, age-, and country-adjusted hazard ratio for developing islet autoantibodies when the children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 3.5 (95% CI, 1.6-7.7; P = .002). The incidence rate of islet autoantibodies was 3.5 (95% CI, 2.2-5.1) per 100 person-years in children without SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and 7.8 (95% CI, 5.3-19.0) per 100 person-years in children with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (P = .02). Islet autoantibody risk in children with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was associated with younger age (<18 months) of SARS-CoV-2 antibody development (HR, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.5-18.3; P = .009).

Conclusion and relevance

In young children with high genetic risk of type 1 diabetes, SARS-CoV-2 infection was temporally associated with the development of islet autoantibodies.

Quantifying the utility of islet autoantibody levels in the prediction of type 1 diabetes in children

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to explore the utility of islet autoantibody (IAb) levels for the prediction of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive children.

METHODS

Prospective cohort studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden and the USA followed 24,662 children at increased genetic or familial risk of developing islet autoimmunity and diabetes. For the 1403 who developed IAbs (523 of whom developed diabetes), levels of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) and insulinoma-associated antigen-2 (IA-2A) were harmonised for analysis. Diabetes prediction models using multivariate logistic regression with inverse probability censored weighting (IPCW) were trained using 10-fold cross-validation. Discriminative power for disease was estimated using the IPCW concordance index (C index) with 95% CI estimated via bootstrap.

RESULTS

A baseline model with covariates for data source, sex, diabetes family history, HLA risk group and age at seroconversion with a 10-year follow-up period yielded a C index of 0.61 (95% CI 0.58, 0.63). The performance improved after adding the IAb positivity status for IAA, GADA and IA-2A at seroconversion: C index 0.72 (95% CI 0.71, 0.74). Using the IAb levels instead of positivity indicators resulted in even better performance: C index 0.76 (95% CI 0.74, 0.77). The predictive power was maintained when using the IAb levels alone: C index 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.76). The prediction was better for shorter follow-up periods, with a C index of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.83) at 2 years, and remained reasonable for longer follow-up periods, with a C index of 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.76) at 11 years. Inclusion of the results of a third IAb test added to the predictive power, and a suitable interval between seroconversion and the third test was approximately 1.5 years, with a C index of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) at 10 years follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Consideration of quantitative patterns of IAb levels improved the predictive power for type 1 diabetes in IAb-positive children beyond qualitative IAb positivity status.

HbA1c as a time predictive biomarker for an additional islet autoantibody and type 1 diabetes in seroconverted TEDDY children

OBJECTIVE

Increased level of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is associated with type 1 diabetes onset that in turn is preceded by one to several autoantibodies against the pancreatic islet beta cell autoantigens; insulin (IA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD), islet antigen-2 (IA-2) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8). The risk for type 1 diabetes diagnosis increases by autoantibody number. Biomarkers predicting the development of a second or a subsequent autoantibody and type 1 diabetes are needed to predict disease stages and improve secondary prevention trials. This study aimed to investigate whether HbA1c possibly predicts the progression from first to a subsequent autoantibody or type 1 diabetes in healthy children participating in the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A joint model was designed to assess the association of longitudinal HbA1c levels with the development of first (insulin or GAD autoantibodies) to a second, second to third, third to fourth autoantibody or type 1 diabetes in healthy children prospectively followed from birth until 15 years of age.

RESULTS

It was found that increased levels of HbA1c were associated with a higher risk of type 1 diabetes (HR 1.82, 95% CI [1.57-2.10], p < 0.001) regardless of first appearing autoantibody, autoantibody number or type. A decrease in HbA1c levels was associated with the development of IA-2A as a second autoantibody following GADA (HR 0.85, 95% CI [0.75, 0.97], p = 0.017) and a fourth autoantibody following GADA, IAA and ZnT8A (HR 0.90, 95% CI [0.82, 0.99], p = 0.036). HbA1c trajectory analyses showed a significant increase of HbA1c over time (p < 0.001) and that the increase is more rapid as the number of autoantibodies increased from one to three (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, increased HbA1c is a reliable time predictive marker for type 1 diabetes onset. The increased rate of increase of HbA1c from first to third autoantibody and the decrease in HbA1c predicting the development of IA-2A are novel findings proving the link between HbA1c and the appearance of autoantibodies.

The emotional well-being of parents with children at genetic risk for type 1 diabetes before and during participation in the POInT-study

INTRODUCTION

This study examined the emotional impact that parents experience when confronted with an increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in their child. Population-based screening of neonates for genetic risk of chronic disease carries the risk of increased emotional burden for parents.

METHODS

Information was collected using a well-being questionnaire for parents of infants identified as having an increased risk for T1D in a multinational research study. Parents were asked to complete this questionnaire after they were told their child had an increased risk for T1D (Freder1k-study) and at several time points during an intervention study (POInT-study), where oral insulin was administered daily.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 2595 parents of 1371 children across five countries. Panic-related anxiety symptoms were reported by only 4.9% after hearing about their child having an increased risk. Symptoms of depression were limited to 19.4% of the parents at the result-communication visit and declined over time during the intervention study. When thinking about their child's risk for developing T1D (disease-specific anxiety), 47.2% worried, felt nervous and tense. Mothers and parents with a first-degree relative (FDR) with T1D reported more symptoms of depression and disease-specific anxiety (p < 0.001) than fathers and parents without a FDR.

CONCLUSION

Overall, symptoms of depression and panic-related anxiety are comparable with the German population. When asked about their child's risk for T1D during the intervention study, some parents reported disease-specific anxiety, which should be kept in mind when considering population-based screening. As certain subgroups are more prone, it will be important to continue psychological screening and, when necessary, to provide support by an experienced, multidisciplinary team.

Future food contaminants: An assessment of the plant uptake of Technology-critical elements versus traditional metal contaminants

Technology-critical elements (TCEs) include most rare earth elements (REEs), the platinum group elements (PGEs), and Ga, Ge, In, Nb, Ta, Te, and Tl. Despite increasing recognition of their prolific release into the environment, their soil to plant transfer remains largely unknown. This paper provides an approximation of the potential for plant uptake by calculating bioconcentration factors (BCFs), defined as the concentration in edible vegetable tissues relative to that in cultivation soil. Here data were obtained from an indoor cultivation experiment growing lettuce, chard, and carrot on 22 different European urban soils. Values of BCFs were determined from concentrations of TCEs in vegetable samples after digestion with concentrated HNO3, and from concentrations in soil determined after 1) Aqua Regia digestion and, 2) diluted (0.1 M) HNO3 leaching. For comparison, BCFs were also determined for 5 traditional metal contaminants (TMCs; As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn). The main conclusions of the study were that: 1)BCF values for the REEs were consistently low in the studied vegetables;2)the BCFs for Ga and Nb were low as well;3) the BCFs for Tl were high relative to the other measured TCEs and the traditional metal contaminants; and 4) mean BCF values for the investigated TCEs were generally highest in chard and lowest in carrot. These findings provide initial evidence that there are likely to be real and present soil-plant transfer of TCEs, especially in the case of Tl. Improvements in analytical methods and detection limits will allow this to be further investigated in a wider variety of edible plants so that a risk profile may be developed.

Elevations in blood glucose before and after the appearance of islet autoantibodies in children

The etiology of type 1 diabetes has polygenic and environmental determinants that lead to autoimmune responses against pancreatic β cells and promote β cell death. The autoimmunity is considered silent without metabolic consequences until late preclinical stages,and it remains unknown how early in the disease process the pancreatic β cell is compromised. To address this, we investigated preprandial nonfasting and postprandial blood glucose concentrations and islet autoantibody development in 1,050 children with high genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. Pre- and postprandial blood glucose decreased between 4 and 18 months of age and gradually increased until the final measurements at 3.6 years of age. Determinants of blood glucose trajectories in the first year of life included sex, body mass index, glucose-related genetic risk scores, and the type 1 diabetes–susceptible INS gene. Children who developed islet autoantibodies had early elevations in blood glucose concentrations. A sharp and sustained rise in postprandial blood glucose was observed at around 2 months prior to autoantibody seroconversion, with further increases in postprandial and, subsequently, preprandial values after seroconversion. These findings show heterogeneity in blood glucose control in infancy and early childhood and suggest that islet autoimmunity is concurrent or subsequent to insults on the pancreatic islets.

Possible Relationship between the HLA-DRA1 Intron Haplotype of Three Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Intron 1 of the HLA-DRA1 Gene and Autoantibodies in Children at Increased Genetic Risk for Autoimmune Type 1 Diabetes

Recently, a haplotype of three single-nucleotide polymorphisms (tri-SNP) in intron 1 of the HLA-DRA1 gene was found to be strongly associated with type 1 diabetes risk in HLA-DR3/3 individuals. The tri-SNP reportedly function as "expression quantitative trait loci," modulating HLA-DR and -DQ expression. The aim was to investigate HLA-DRA1 tri-SNPs in relation to extended HLA class II haplotypes and human peripheral blood cell HLA-DQ cell-surface median fluorescence intensity (MFI), the first-appearing islet autoantibody, and autoimmunity burden. A total of 67 healthy subjects (10-15 y) at increased HLA risk for type 1 diabetes and with (n = 54) or without (n = 13) islet autoantibodies were followed longitudinally in the Diabetes Prediction in Skåne study. Among four tri-SNPs, AGG (n = 67), GCA (n = 47), ACG (n = 11), and ACA (n = 9), HLA-DQ cell-surface MFI on CD4⁺ T cells was lower in AGG than GCA (p = 0.030) subjects. Cumulative autoimmunity burden was associated with reduced HLA-DQ cell-surface MFI in AGG compared with GCA in CD16⁺ cells (p = 0.0013), CD4⁺ T cells (p = 0.0018), and CD8⁺ T cells (p = 0.016). The results suggest that HLA-DRA1 tri-SNPs may be related to HLA-DQ cell-surface expression and autoimmunity burden.

Two-age islet-autoantibody screening for childhood type 1 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of childhood type 1 diabetes reduces ketoacidosis at diagnosis and provides opportunities for disease prevention. However, only highly efficient approaches are likely to succeed in public health settings. We sought to identify efficient strategies for initial islet autoantibody screening in children younger than 15 years.

METHODS

We harmonised data from five prospective cohorts from Finland (DIPP), Germany (BABYDIAB), Sweden (DiPiS), and the USA (DAISY and DEW-IT) into the Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) cohort. 24 662 children at high risk of diabetes enrolled before age 2 years were included and followed up for islet autoantibodies and diabetes until age 15 years, or type 1 diabetes onset, whichever occurred first. Islet autoantibodies measured included those against glutamic acid decarboxylase, insulinoma antigen 2, and insulin. Main outcomes were sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of detected islet autoantibodies, tested at one or two fixed ages, for diagnosis of clinical type 1 diabetes.

FINDINGS

Of the 24 662 participants enrolled in the Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence cohort, 6722 total were followed up to age 15 years or until onset of type 1 diabetes. Type 1 diabetes developed by age 15 years in 672 children, but did not develop in 6050 children. Optimal screening ages for two measurements were 2 years and 6 years, yielding sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 79-86) and PPV of 79% (95% CI 75-80) for diabetes by age 15 years. Autoantibody positivity at the beginning of each test age was highly predictive of diagnosis in the subsequent 2-5·99 year or 6-15-year age intervals. Autoantibodies usually appeared before age 6 years even in children diagnosed with diabetes much later in childhood.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that initial screening for islet autoantibodies at two ages (2 years and 6 years) is sensitive and efficient for public health translation but might require adjustment by country on the basis of population-specific disease characteristics.

FUNDING

Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

Childhood Height Growth Rate Association With the Risk of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Rapid growth has been suggested to promote islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). Childhood growth has not been analyzed separately from the infant growth period in most previous studies, but it may have distinct features due to differences between the stages of development.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to analyze the association of childhood growth with development of islet autoimmunity and progression to T1D diagnosis in children 1 to 8 years of age.

METHODS

Longitudinal data of childhood growth and development of islet autoimmunity and T1D were analyzed in a prospective cohort study including 10 145 children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States, 1-8 years of age with at least 3 height and weight measurements and at least 1 measurement of islet autoantibodies. The primary outcome was the appearance of islet autoimmunity and progression from islet autoimmunity to T1D.

RESULTS

Rapid increase in height (cm/year) was associated with increased risk of seroconversion to glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibody, insulin autoantibody, or insulinoma-like antigen-2 autoantibody (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.26 [95% CI = 1.05, 1.51] for 1-3 years of age and HR = 1.48 [95% CI = 1.28, 1.73] for >3 years of age). Furthermore, height rate was positively associated with development of T1D (HR = 1.80 [95% CI = 1.15, 2.81]) in the analyses from seroconversion with insulin autoantibody to diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Rapid height growth rate in childhood is associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity and progression to T1D. Further work is needed to investigate the biological mechanism that may explain this association.

Heterogeneity of DKA Incidence and Age-Specific Clinical Characteristics in Children Diagnosed With Type 1 Diabetes in the TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is uniquely capable of investigating age-specific differences associated with type 1 diabetes. Because age is a primary driver of heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes, we sought to characterize by age metabolic derangements prior to diagnosis and clinical features associated with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The 379 TEDDY children who developed type 1 diabetes were grouped by age at onset (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years; n = 142, 151, and 86, respectively) with comparisons of autoantibody profiles, HLAs, family history of diabetes, presence of DKA, symptomatology at onset, and adherence to TEDDY protocol. Time-varying analysis compared those with oral glucose tolerance test data with TEDDY children who did not progress to diabetes.

RESULTS

Increasing fasting glucose (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.04-1.14]; P = 0.0003), stimulated glucose (HR 1.50 [1.42-1.59]; P < 0.0001), fasting insulin (HR 0.89 [0.83-0.95]; P = 0.0009), and glucose-to-insulin ratio (HR 1.29 [1.16-1.43]; P < 0.0001) were associated with risk of progression to type 1 diabetes. Younger children had fewer autoantibodies with more symptoms at diagnosis. Twenty-three children (6.1%) had DKA at onset, only 1 (0.97%) of 103 with and 22 (8.0%) of 276 children without a first-degree relative (FDR) with type 1 diabetes (P = 0.008). Children with DKA were more likely to be nonadherent to study protocol (P = 0.047), with longer duration between their last TEDDY evaluation and diagnosis (median 10.2 vs. 2.0 months without DKA; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

DKA at onset in TEDDY is uncommon, especially for FDRs. For those without familial risk, metabolic monitoring continues to provide a primary benefit of reduced DKA but requires regular follow-up. Clinical and laboratory features vary by age at onset, adding to the heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes.

Imputing Longitudinal Growth Data in International Pediatric Studies: Does CDC Reference Suffice?

This study investigates a missing value imputation approach for longitudinal growth data in pediatric studies from multiple countries. We analyzed a combined cohort from five natural history studies of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in the US and EU with longitudinal growth measurements for 23,201 subjects. We developed a multiple imputation methodology using LMS parameters of CDC reference data. We measured imputation errors on both combined and individual cohorts using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE). Our results show low imputation errors using CDC reference. Overall height imputation errors were lower than for weight. The largest MAPE for weight and height among all age groups was 4.8% and 1.7%, respectively. When comparing performance between CDC reference and country-specific growth charts, we found no significant differences for height (CDC vs. German: p =0.993, CDC vs. Swedish: p=0.368) and for weight (CDC vs. Swedish: p=0.513) for all ages.

Is staff consistency important to parents' satisfaction in a longitudinal study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes: the TEDDY study

BACKGROUND

Participants' study satisfaction is important for both compliance with study protocols and retention, but research on parent study satisfaction is rare. This study sought to identify factors associated with parent study satisfaction in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, a longitudinal, multinational (US, Finland, Germany, Sweden) study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes. The role of staff consistency to parent study satisfaction was a particular focus.

METHODS

Parent study satisfaction was measured by questionnaire at child-age 15 months (5579 mothers, 4942 fathers) and child-age four years (4010 mothers, 3411 fathers). Multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify sociodemographic factors, parental characteristics, and study variables associated with parent study satisfaction at both time points.

RESULTS

Parent study satisfaction was highest in Sweden and the US, compared to Finland. Parents who had an accurate perception of their child's type 1 diabetes risk and those who believed they can do something to prevent type 1 diabetes were more satisfied. More educated parents and those with higher depression scores had lower study satisfaction scores. After adjusting for these factors, greater study staff change frequency was associated with lower study satisfaction in European parents (mothers at child-age 15 months: - 0.30,95% Cl - 0.36, - 0.24, p < 0.001; mothers at child-age four years: -0.41, 95% Cl - 0.53, - 0.29, p < 0.001; fathers at child-age 15 months: -0.28, 95% Cl - 0.34, - 0.21, p < 0.001; fathers at child-age four years: -0.35, 95% Cl - 0.48, - 0.21, p < 0.001). Staff consistency was not associated with parent study satisfaction in the US. However, the number of staff changes was markedly higher in the US compared to Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociodemographic factors, parental characteristics, and study-related variables were all related to parent study satisfaction. Those that are potentially modifiable are of particular interest as possible targets of future efforts to improve parent study satisfaction. Three such factors were identified: parent accuracy about the child's type 1 diabetes risk, parent beliefs that something can be done to reduce the child's risk, and study staff consistency. However, staff consistency was important only for European parents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00279318 .

Heterogeneity of beta-cell function in subjects with multiple islet autoantibodies in the TEDDY family prevention study - TEFA

Background

Individuals with multiple islet autoantibodies are at increased risk for clinical type 1 diabetes and may proceed gradually from stage to stage complicating the recruitment to secondary prevention studies. We evaluated multiple islet autoantibody positive subjects before randomisation for a clinical trial 1 month apart for beta-cell function, glucose metabolism and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). We hypothesized that the number and type of islet autoantibodies in combination with different measures of glucose metabolism including fasting glucose, HbA1c, oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), intra venous glucose tolerance test (IvGTT) and CGM allows for more precise staging of autoimmune type 1 diabetes than the number of islet autoantibodies alone.

Methods

Subjects (n = 57) at 2–50 years of age, positive for two or more islet autoantibodies were assessed by fasting plasma insulin, glucose, HbA1c as well as First Phase Insulin Response (FPIR) in IvGTT, followed 1 month later by OGTT, and 1 week of CGM (n = 24).

Results

Autoantibodies against GAD65 (GADA; n = 52), ZnT8 (ZnT8A; n = 40), IA-2 (IA-2A; n = 38) and insulin (IAA; n = 28) were present in 9 different combinations of 2–4 autoantibodies. Fasting glucose and HbA1c did not differ between the two visits. The estimate of the linear relationship between log2-transformed FPIR as the outcome and log2-transformed area under the OGTT glucose curve (AUC) as the predictor, adjusting for age and sex was − 1.88 (− 2.71, − 1.05) p = 3.49 × 10–5. The direction of the estimates for all glucose metabolism measures was positive except for FPIR, which was negative. FPIR was associated with higher blood glucose. Both the median and the spread of the CGM glucose data were significantly associated with higher glucose values based on OGTT, higher HbA1c, and lower FPIR. There was no association between glucose metabolism, autoantibody number and type except that there was an indication that the presence of at least one of ZnT8(Q/R/W) A was associated with a lower log2-transformed FPIR (− 0.80 (− 1.58, − 0.02), p = 0.046).

Conclusions

The sole use of two or more islet autoantibodies as inclusion criterion for Stage 1 diabetes in prevention trials is unsatisfactory. Staging type 1 diabetes needs to take the heterogeneity in beta-cell function and glucose metabolism into account.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02605148, November 16, 2015

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40842-021-00135-6.

Islet Autoantibody Type-Specific Titer Thresholds Improve Stratification of Risk of Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in Children

OBJECTIVE

To use islet autoantibody titers to improve the estimation of future type 1 diabetes risk in children.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Prospective cohort studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. followed 24,662 children at increased genetic or familial risk to develop islet autoimmunity and diabetes. For 1,604 children with confirmed positivity, titers of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), GAD antibodies (GADA), and insulinoma-associated antigen 2 (IA-2A) were harmonized for diabetes risk analyses.

RESULTS

Survival analysis from time of confirmed positivity revealed markedly different 5-year diabetes risks associated with IAA (n = 909), GADA (n = 1,076), and IA-2A (n = 714), when stratified by quartiles of titer, ranging from 19% (GADA 1st quartile) to 60% (IA-2A 4th quartile). The minimum titer associated with a maximum difference in 5-year risk differed for each autoantibody, corresponding to the 58.6th, 52.4th, and 10.2nd percentile of children specifically positive for each of IAA, GADA, and IA-2A, respectively. Using these autoantibody type-specific titer thresholds in the 1,481 children with all autoantibodies tested, the 5-year risk conferred by single (n = 954) and multiple (n = 527) autoantibodies could be stratified from 6 to 75% (P < 0.0001). The thresholds effectively identified children with a ≥50% 5-year risk when considering age-specific autoantibody screening (57-65% positive predictive value and 56-74% sensitivity for ages 1-5 years). Multivariable analysis confirmed the significance of associations between the three autoantibody titers and diabetes risk, informing a childhood risk surveillance strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study defined islet autoantibody type-specific titer thresholds that significantly improved type 1 diabetes risk stratification in children.

Supplementation with Bifidobacterium longum subspecies infantis EVC001 for mitigation of type 1 diabetes autoimmunity: the GPPAD-SINT1A randomised controlled trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

The Global Platform for the Prevention of Autoimmune Diabetes-SINT1A Study is designed as a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, multicentre, multinational, primary prevention study aiming to assess whether daily administration of Bifidobacterium infantis from age 7 days to 6 weeks until age 12 months to children with elevated genetic risk for type 1 diabetes reduces the cumulative incidence of beta-cell autoantibodies in childhood.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Infants aged 7 days to 6 weeks from Germany, Poland, Belgium, UK and Sweden are eligible for study participation if they have a >10.0% expected risk for developing multiple beta-cell autoantibodies by age 6 years as determined by genetic risk score or family history and HLA genotype. Infants are randomised 1:1 to daily administration of B. infantis EVC001 or placebo until age 12 months and followed for a maximum of 5.5 years thereafter. The primary outcome is the development of persistent confirmed multiple beta-cell autoantibodies. Secondary outcomes are (1) Any persistent confirmed beta-cell autoantibody, defined as at least one confirmed autoantibody in two consecutive samples, including insulin autoantibodies, glutamic acid decarboxylase, islet tyrosine phosphatase 2 or zinc transporter 8, (2) Diabetes, (3) Transglutaminase autoantibodies associated with coeliac disease, (4) Respiratory infection rate in first year of life during supplementation and (5) Safety. Exploratory outcomes include allergy, antibody response to vaccines, alterations of the gut microbiome or blood metabolome, stool pH and calprotectin.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the local ethical committees of the Technical University Munich, Medical Faculty, the Technische Universität Dresden, the Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, the Medical University of Warsaw, EC Research UZ Leuven and the Swedish ethical review authority. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations and will be openly shared after completion of the study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04769037.

Time to Peak Glucose and Peak C-Peptide During the Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Trial and TrialNet Cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To assess the progression of type 1 diabetes using time to peak glucose or C-peptide during oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) in autoantibody-positive relatives of people with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We examined 2-h OGTTs of participants in the Diabetes Prevention Trial Type 1 (DPT-1) and TrialNet Pathway to Prevention (PTP) studies. We included 706 DPT-1 participants (mean ± SD age, 13.84 ± 9.53 years; BMI Z-score, 0.33 ± 1.07; 56.1% male) and 3,720 PTP participants (age, 16.01 ± 12.33 years; BMI Z-score, 0.66 ± 1.3; 49.7% male). Log-rank testing and Cox regression analyses with adjustments (age, sex, race, BMI Z-score, HOMA-insulin resistance, and peak glucose/C-peptide levels, respectively) were performed.

RESULTS

In each of DPT-1 and PTP, higher 5-year diabetes progression risk was seen in those with time to peak glucose >30 min and time to peak C-peptide >60 min (P < 0.001 for all groups), before and after adjustments. In models examining strength of association with diabetes development, associations were greater for time to peak C-peptide versus peak C-peptide value (DPT-1: χ² = 25.76 vs. χ² = 8.62; PTP: χ² = 149.19 vs. χ² = 79.98; all P < 0.001). Changes in the percentage of individuals with delayed glucose and/or C-peptide peaks were noted over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In two independent at-risk populations, we show that those with delayed OGTT peak times for glucose or C-peptide are at higher risk of diabetes development within 5 years, independent of peak levels. Moreover, time to peak C-peptide appears more predictive than the peak level, suggesting its potential use as a specific biomarker for diabetes progression.

Advances in Type 1 Diabetes Prediction Using Islet Autoantibodies: Beyond a Simple Count

Islet autoantibodies are key markers for the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. Since their discovery, they have also been recognized for their potential to identify at-risk individuals prior to symptoms. To date, risk prediction using autoantibodies has been based on autoantibody number; it has been robustly shown that nearly all multiple-autoantibody-positive individuals will progress to clinical disease. However, longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the rate of progression among multiple-autoantibody-positive individuals is highly heterogenous. Accurate prediction of the most rapidly progressing individuals is crucial for efficient and informative clinical trials and for identification of candidates most likely to benefit from disease modification. This is increasingly relevant with the recent success in delaying clinical disease in presymptomatic subjects using immunotherapy, and as the field moves toward population-based screening. There have been many studies investigating islet autoantibody characteristics for their predictive potential, beyond a simple categorical count. Predictive features that have emerged include molecular specifics, such as epitope targets and affinity; longitudinal patterns, such as changes in titer and autoantibody reversion; and sequence-dependent risk profiles specific to the autoantibody and the subject's age. These insights are the outworking of decades of prospective cohort studies and international assay standardization efforts and will contribute to the granularity needed for more sensitive and specific preclinical staging. The aim of this review is to identify the dynamic and nuanced manifestations of autoantibodies in type 1 diabetes, and to highlight how these autoantibody features have the potential to improve study design of trials aiming to predict and prevent disease.

DPVis: Visual Analytics With Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression Pathways

Clinical researchers use disease progression models to understand patient status and characterize progression patterns from longitudinal health records. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a small number of states that represent distinctive distributions over a set of observed measures. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and its variants are a class of models that both discover these states and make inferences of health states for patients. Despite the advantages of using the algorithms for discovering interesting patterns, it still remains challenging for medical experts to interpret model outputs, understand complex modeling parameters, and clinically make sense of the patterns. To tackle these problems, we conducted a design study with clinical scientists, statisticians, and visualization experts, with the goal to investigate disease progression pathways of chronic diseases, namely type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As a result, we introduce DPVis which seamlessly integrates model parameters and outcomes of HMMs into interpretable and interactive visualizations. In this article, we demonstrate that DPVis is successful in evaluating disease progression models, visually summarizing disease states, interactively exploring disease progression patterns, and building, analyzing, and comparing clinically relevant patient subgroups.

Islet Autoimmunity and HLA Markers of Presymptomatic and Clinical Type 1 Diabetes: Joint Analyses of Prospective Cohort Studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S

OBJECTIVE

To combine prospective cohort studies, by including HLA harmonization, and estimate risk of islet autoimmunity and progression to clinical diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

For prospective cohorts in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S., 24,662 children at increased genetic risk for development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes have been followed. Following harmonization, the outcomes were analyzed in 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years.

RESULTS

In the infant-toddler cohort, 1,413 (8.5%) developed at least one autoantibody confirmed at two or more consecutive visits (seroconversion), 865 (5%) developed multiple autoantibodies, and 655 (4%) progressed to diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied in children with one, two, or three autoantibodies at seroconversion: 45% (95% CI 40-52), 85% (78-90), and 92% (85-97), respectively. Among those with a single autoantibody, status 2 years after seroconversion predicted diabetes risk: 12% (10-25) if reverting to autoantibody negative, 30% (20-40) if retaining a single autoantibody, and 82% (80-95) if developing multiple autoantibodies. HLA-DR-DQ affected the risk of confirmed seroconversion and progression to diabetes in children with stable single-autoantibody status. Their 15-year diabetes incidence for higher- versus lower-risk genotypes was 40% (28-50) vs. 12% (5-38). The rate of progression to diabetes was inversely related to age at development of multiple autoantibodies, ranging from 20% per year to 6% per year in children developing multipositivity in ≤2 years or >7.4 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of islet autoantibodies at seroconversion reliably predicts 15-year type 1 diabetes risk. In children retaining a single autoantibody, HLA-DR-DQ genotypes can further refine risk of progression.

Beta cell function in participants with single or multiple islet autoantibodies at baseline in the TEDDY Family Prevention Study: TEFA

Aim

The aim of the present study was to assess beta cell function based on an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in participants with single islet autoantibody or an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IvGTT) in participants with multiple islet autoantibodies.

Materials and methods

Healthy participants in Sweden and Finland, between 2 and 49.99 years of age previously identified as positive for a single (n = 30) autoantibody to either insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase, islet antigen-2, zinc transporter 8 or islet cell antibodies or multiple autoantibodies (n = 46), were included. Participants positive for a single autoantibody underwent a 6-point OGTT while participants positive for multiple autoantibodies underwent an IvGTT. Glucose, insulin and C-peptide were measured from OGTT and IvGTT samples.

Results

All participants positive for a single autoantibody had a normal glucose tolerance test with 120 minutes glucose below 7.70 mmol/L and HbA1c values within the normal range (<42 mmol/mol). Insulin responses to the glucose challenge on OGTT ranged between 13.0 and 143 mIU/L after 120 minutes with C-peptide values between 0.74 and 4.60 nmol/L. In Swedish participants, the first-phase insulin response (FPIR) on IvGTT was lower in those positive for three or more autoantibodies (n = 13; median 83.0 mIU/L; range 20.0-343) compared to those with two autoantibodies (n = 15; median 146 mIU/L; range 19.0-545; P = .0330).

Conclusion

Participants positive for a single autoantibody appeared to have a normal beta cell function. Participants positive for three or more autoantibodies had a lower FPIR as compared to participants with two autoantibodies, supporting the view that their beta cell function had deteriorated.

Factors Associated With the Decline of C-Peptide in a Cohort of Young Children Diagnosed With Type 1 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Understanding factors involved in the rate of C-peptide decline is needed to tailor therapies for type 1 diabetes (T1D).

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate factors associated with rate of C-peptide decline after a T1D diagnosis in young children.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Academic centers.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 57 participants from the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study who were enrolled at 3 months of age and followed until T1D, and 56 age-matched children diagnosed with T1D in the community.

INTERVENTION

A mixed meal tolerance test was used to measure the area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months postdiagnosis.

OUTCOME

Factors associated with rate of C-peptide decline during the first 2 years postdiagnosis were evaluated using mixed effects models, adjusting for age at diagnosis and baseline C-peptide.

RESULTS

Adjusted slopes of AUC C-peptide decline did not differ between TEDDY subjects and community controls (P = 0.21), although the former had higher C-peptide baseline levels. In univariate analyses combining both groups (n = 113), younger age, higher weight and body mass index z-scores, female sex, an increased number increased number of islet autoantibodies, and IA-2A or ZnT8A positivity at baseline were associated with a higher rate of C-peptide loss. Younger age, female sex, and higher weight z-score remained significant in multivariate analysis (all P < 0.02). At 3 months after diagnosis, higher HbA1c became an additional independent factor associated with a higher rate of C-peptide decline (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Younger age at diagnosis, female sex, higher weight z-score, and HbA1c were associated with a higher rate of C-peptide decline after T1D diagnosis in young children.

First-appearing islet autoantibodies for type 1 diabetes in young children: maternal life events during pregnancy and the child's genetic risk

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Psychological stress has long been considered a possible trigger of type 1 diabetes, although prospective studies examining the link between psychological stress or life events during pregnancy and the child's type 1 diabetes risk are rare. The objective of this study was to examine the association between life events during pregnancy and first-appearing islet autoantibodies (IA) in young children, conditioned by the child's type 1 diabetes-related genetic risk.

METHODS

The IA status of 7317 genetically at-risk The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) participants was assessed every 3 months from 3 months to 4 years, and bi-annually thereafter. Reports of major life events during pregnancy were collected at study inception when the child was 3 months of age and placed into one of six categories. Life events during pregnancy were examined for association with first-appearing insulin (IAA) (N = 222) or GAD (GADA) (N = 209) autoantibodies in the child until 6 years of age using proportional hazard models. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) by the child's HLA-DR and SNP profile was estimated.

RESULTS

Overall, 65% of mothers reported a life event during pregnancy; disease/injury (25%), serious interpersonal (28%) and job-related (25%) life events were most common. The association of life events during pregnancy differed between IAA and GADA as the first-appearing autoantibody. Serious interpersonal life events correlated with increased risk of GADA-first only in HLA-DR3 children with the BACH2-T allele (HR 2.28, p < 0.0001), an additive interaction (RERI 1.87, p = 0.0004). Job-related life events were also associated with increased risk of GADA-first among HLA-DR3/4 children (HR 1.53, p = 0.04) independent of serious interpersonal life events (HR 1.90, p = 0.002), an additive interaction (RERI 1.19, p = 0.004). Job-related life events correlated with reduced risk of IAA-first (HR 0.55, p = 0.004), particularly in children with the BTNL2-GG allele (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.31, 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Specific life events during pregnancy are differentially related to IAA vs GADA as first-appearing IA and interact with different HLA and non-HLA genetic factors, supporting the concept of different endotypes underlying type 1 diabetes. However, the mechanisms underlying these associations remain to be discovered. Life events may be markers for other yet-to-be-identified factors important to the development of first-appearing IA.

Predicting Type 1 Diabetes Onset using Novel Survival Analysis with Biomarker Ontology

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune disease that affects about 1 in 300 children and up to 1 in 100 adults during their life-time¹. Improvements in early prediction of T1D onset may help prevent diagnosis for diabetic ketoacidosis, a serious complication often associated with a missed or delayed T1D diagnosis. In addition to genetic factors, progression to T1D is strongly associated with immunologic factors that can be measured during clinical visits. We developed a T1D-specific ontology that captures the dynamic patterns of these biomarkers and used it together with a survival model, RankSvx, proposed in our prior work². We applied this approach to a T1D dataset harmonized from three birth cohort studies from the United States, Finland, and Sweden. Results show that the dynamic biomarker patterns captured in the proposed ontology are able to improve prediction performance (in concordance index) by 5.3%, 3.3%, 2.8%, and 1.0% over baseline for 3, 6, 9, and 12 month duration windows, respectively.

Modeling Disease Progression Trajectories from Longitudinal Observational Data

Analyzing disease progression patterns can provide useful insights into the disease processes of many chronic conditions. These analyses may help inform recruitment for prevention trials or the development and personalization of treatments for those affected. We learn disease progression patterns using Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and distill them into distinct trajectories using visualization methods. We apply it to the domain of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) using large longitudinal observational data from the T1DI study group. Our method discovers distinct disease progression trajectories that corroborate with recently published findings. In this paper, we describe the iterative process of developing the model. These methods may also be applied to other chronic conditions that evolve over time.

Parental anxiety after 5 years of participation in a longitudinal study of children at high risk of type 1 diabetes

AIM

Parents of children participating in screening studies may experience increased levels of anxiety. The aim of this study was to assess parental anxiety levels after 5 years of participation in the Diabetes Prediction in Skåne study. Associations between parental anxiety about their child developing type 1 diabetes and clinical, demographic, and immunological factors were analyzed.

METHOD

Mothers and fathers of participating 5-year-old children answered a questionnaire regarding parental anxiety associated with their child's increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Anxiety levels were assessed using the State Anxiety Inventory scale. Data were analyzed using logistic and multinomial regression.

RESULTS

Parents of 2088 5-year-old children participated. Both parents answered the questionnaire for 91.2% (n = 1904) of children. In 67.1% of families, neither parent reported being anxious that their child had an increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes. Anxiety was higher in mothers of children positive for autoantibodies (OR 2.21 95% CI 1.41, 3.48, P < .001) and those perceiving their child had a higher risk for type 1 diabetes (2.01; 1.29, 3.13, P = .002). Frequency of worry was associated with parental anxiety (mothers 5.33; 3.48, 8.17, P < .001, fathers 5.27; 3.51, 7.92, P < .001). Having a family member with type 1 diabetes and having lower education level were also associated with increased anxiety.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes in the family, the child's autoantibody status, education level, frequency of worry and risk perception where associated with higher parental anxiety. These findings add to our understanding of the impact of screening for type 1 diabetes in children on parental anxiety.

Decreased HLA-DQ expression on peripheral blood cells in children with varying number of beta cell autoantibodies

The risk for type 1 diabetes is strongly associated with HLA-DQ and the appearance of beta cell autoantibodies against either insulin, glutamate decarboxylase (GAD65), insulinoma-associated protein-2 (IA-2), or zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8). Prolonged exposure to autoantibodies may be related to T cell exhaustion known to occur in chronic infections or autoimmune disorders. It was hypothesized that autoantibody exposure may affect HLA-DQ expression on peripheral blood cells and thereby contribute to T cell exhaustion thought to be associated with the pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes. The aim of this study was to determine whether autoantibody exposure as an expression of autoimmunity burden was related to peripheral blood cell HLA-DQ cell surface expression in either 1) a cross-sectional analysis or 2) cumulative as area under the trajectory of autoantibodies during long term follow-up in the Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study. Children (n = 67), aged 10–15 years were analyzed for complete blood count, HLA-DQ cell surface median fluorescence intensity (MFI), autoantibody frequency, and HLA genotypes by Next Generation Sequencing. Decreased HLA-DQ cell surface MFI with an increasing number of autoantibodies was observed in CD16⁺, CD14⁺CD16⁻, CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ cells but not in CD19⁺ cells and neutrophils. HLA-DQ cell surface MFI was associated with HLA-DQ2/8 in CD4⁺ T cells, marginally in CD14⁺CD16⁻ monocytes and CD8⁺ T cells. These associations appeared to be related to autoimmunity burden. The results suggest that HLA-DQ cell surface expression was related to HLA and autoimmunity burden.

•

PBMC HLA-DQ surface expression in beta cell autoimmunity is poorly understood.

•

Children, 10–15 years of age without or with beta cell autoantibodies were analyzed.

•

HLA-DQ cell surface expression decreased with increasing number of autoantibodies.

•

HLA-DQ cell surface expression was related to HLA and autoimmunity burden.

Introducing the Endotype Concept to Address the Challenge of Disease Heterogeneity in Type 1 Diabetes

The clinical diagnosis of new-onset type 1 diabetes has, for many years, been considered relatively straightforward. Recently, however, there is increasing awareness that within this single clinical phenotype exists considerable heterogeneity: disease onset spans the complete age range; genetic susceptibility is complex; rates of progression differ markedly, as does insulin secretory capacity; and complication rates, glycemic control, and therapeutic intervention efficacy vary widely. Mechanistic and immunopathological studies typically show considerable patchiness across subjects, undermining conclusions regarding disease pathways. Without better understanding, type 1 diabetes heterogeneity represents a major barrier both to deciphering pathogenesis and to the translational effort of designing, conducting, and interpreting clinical trials of disease-modifying agents. This realization comes during a period of unprecedented change in clinical medicine, with increasing emphasis on greater individualization and precision. For complex disorders such as type 1 diabetes, the option of maintaining the "single disease" approach appears untenable, as does the notion of individualizing each single patient's care, obliging us to conceptualize type 1 diabetes less in terms of phenotypes (observable characteristics) and more in terms of disease endotypes (underlying biological mechanisms). Here, we provide our view on an approach to dissect heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes. Using lessons from other diseases and the data gathered to date, we aim to delineate a roadmap through which the field can incorporate the endotype concept into laboratory and clinical practice. We predict that such an effort will accelerate the implementation of precision medicine and has the potential for impact on our approach to translational research, trial design, and clinical management.

Childhood thyroid autoimmunity and relation to islet autoantibodies in children at risk for type 1 diabetes in the diabetes prediction in skåne (DiPiS) study

BACKGROUND

The aim was to determine prevalence and age at seroconversion of thyroid autoimmunity in relation to islet autoantibodies, gender and HLA-DQ genotypes in children with increased risk for type 1 diabetes followed from birth.

METHODS

In 10-year-old children (n = 1874), blood samples were analysed for autoantibodies against thyroid peroxidase (TPOAb), thyroglobulin (TGAb), glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 (GADA), Zink transporter 8 (ZnT8R/W/QA), insulinoma-associated protein-2 (IA-2A), insulin (IAA) and HLA-DQ genotypes. Prospectively collected samples from 2 years of age were next analysed for TPOAb, and TGAb and, finally, in confirming samples at 11-16 years of age along with TSH and FT4. Frequencies were tested with Chi-square or Fischer's exact tests, autoantibody levels with Wilcoxon and correlations between autoantibody levels with Spearman's rank correlation test.

RESULTS

The prevalence of thyroid autoimmunity was 6.9%, overrepresented in girls (p < .001) also having higher TPOAb levels at 10 years (p = .049). TPOAb was associated with GADA (p = .002), ZnT8R/W/QA (p = .001) and IA-2A (p = .001) while TGAb were associated with ZnT8R/W/QA (p = .021). In boys only, TPOAb were associated with GADA (p = .002), IA-2A (p = .001), ZnT8R/W/QA (p = .001) and IAA (p = .009), and TGAb with GADA (p = .013), IA-2A (p = .005) and ZnT8R/W/QA (p = .003). Levels of IA-2A correlated to both TPOAb (p = .021) and to TGAb (p = .011). In boys only, levels of GADA and TGAb correlated (p = .009 as did levels of IA-2A and TPOAb (p = .013). The frequency and levels of thyroid autoantibodies increased with age. At follow-up, 22.3% had abnormal thyroid function or were treated with thyroxine.

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid autoimmunity and high TPOAb levels were more common in girls. In contrast, in boys only, there was a strong association with as well as correlation between levels of thyroid and islet autoantibodies. It is concluded that while girls may develop autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) independent of islet autoantibodies, the risk for thyroid disease in boys may be linked to concomitant islet autoimmunity.

Oral insulin therapy for primary prevention of type 1 diabetes in infants with high genetic risk: the GPPAD-POInT (global platform for the prevention of autoimmune diabetes primary oral insulin trial) study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The POInT study, an investigator initiated, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, multicentre primary prevention trial is conducted to determine whether daily administration of oral insulin, from age 4.0 months to 7.0 months until age 36.0 months to children with elevated genetic risk for type 1 diabetes, reduces the incidence of beta-cell autoantibodies and diabetes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Infants aged 4.0 to 7.0 months from Germany, Poland, Belgium, UK and Sweden are eligible if they have a >10.0% expected risk for developing multiple beta-cell autoantibodies as determined by genetic risk score or family history and human leucocyte antigen genotype. Infants are randomised 1:1 to daily oral insulin (7.5 mg for 2 months, 22.5 mg for 2 months, 67.5 mg until age 36.0 months) or placebo, and followed for a maximum of 7 years. Treatment and follow-up is stopped if a child develops diabetes. The primary outcome is the development of persistent confirmed multiple beta-cell autoantibodies or diabetes. Other outcomes are: (1) Any persistent confirmed beta-cell autoantibody (glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), IA-2A, autoantibodies to insulin (IAA) and zinc transporter 8 or tetraspanin 7), or diabetes, (2) Persistent confirmed IAA, (3) Persistent confirmed GADA and (4) Abnormal glucose tolerance or diabetes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study is approved by the ethical committees of all participating clinical sites. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations and will be openly shared after completion of the trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03364868.

Practical management in Wolcott-Rallison syndrome with associated hypothyroidism, neutropenia, and recurrent liver failure: A case report

Wolcott‐Rallison syndrome is a rare genetic syndrome of neonatal diabetes, liver failure, and growth retardation. We present a case with a EIF2AK3 p.(Arg902Ter) mutation, additionally complicated by hypothyroidism, impaired renal function, and exocrine pancreas insufficiency, focusing on clinical management. For its optimization, thorough care of multiple organ systems is needed.

Effect of screening for type 1 diabetes on early metabolic control: the DiPiS study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

It has been shown that children previously enrolled in follow-up studies have better glycaemic control during the early period after diabetes diagnosis. The aim of this study was to analyse glycaemic control over a longer period, past the period of partial remission, after diagnosis in children followed before diagnosis in the Swedish Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study compared with children of equal age not enrolled in pre-diabetes follow-up, receiving equivalent diabetes care.

METHODS

HbA_1c from diagnosis and for the following 5 years, as well as differences in insulin dosage, BMI, pump use, partial remission according to insulin dose-adjusted HbA_1c and baseline demographics were compared between children who were enrolled in follow-up and had received information on diabetes risk (n = 51) and children not enrolled in follow-up (n = 78).

RESULTS

The group followed before diagnosis had a higher proportion of first-degree relatives (FDRs) with diabetes (28% vs 5.6%; p = 0.001) and a higher proportion of participants with mothers born in Sweden (100% vs 89%; p = 0.02). No significant differences in total daily insulin dose, pump use or other baseline sociodemographic factors were detected between the groups. Median HbA_1c at diagnosis and at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years after diabetes diagnosis was significantly lower in children followed before diagnosis (all p < 0.05), and was not related to FDR status.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Compared with controls not previously enrolled in follow-up, our study shows that children enrolled in longitudinal follow-up before the diagnosis of diabetes have better glycaemic control, measured by HbA_1c, up to 5 years after diagnosis and during the initial period of partial remission. Improved glycaemic control in the initial years of living with type 1 diabetes could affect long-term outcome and complications and might also improve study enrolment in future longitudinal studies.

Mapping the distribution of scale-rayed wrasse Acantholabrus palloni in Swedish Skagerrak using angling records

In this paper, we map the distribution of scale-rayed wrasse Acantholabrus palloni in eastern Skagerrak based on a combination of verified and personally communicated angling records. Long thought to be occasional vagrants outside its known range in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, we ask if this rare and understudied labrid has expanded its range and become established in Swedish waters. A recent surge in verified angling records in the Swedish Anglers Association's specimen database Storfiskregistret provides information to suggest that this species should no longer be considered an occasional guest, but rather a species established in the Swedish parts of Skagerrak. These records are supported by additional personal communications with anglers. The species is currently well spread geographically along the Swedish Skagerrak coast, with many locations providing repeated captures of adult fish over multiple years. The typical Swedish catch sites are rocky reefs located between the general 40- and 80-m depth curves, likely influenced by currents bringing higher-salinity water from the North Sea. The present study show that angling records can provide an important, but underutilized, resource for mapping the distribution of data-deficient fish species.

Influence of early-life parental severe life events on the risk of type 1 diabetes in children: the DiPiS study

AIMS

Stress and severe life events (SLEs) modify autoimmune disease susceptibility. Here, we aimed to establish if SLEs reported by parents during the first 2 years of life influence the risk of developing type 1 diabetes (T1D) using data from the prospective Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study.

METHODS

Prospective questionnaire data recorded at 2 months (n = 23,187) and 2 years of age (n = 3784) from the DiPiS cohort of children were included in the analysis. SLEs were analyzed both by groups and as a combined variable. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for T1D diagnosis for the total cohort and for the HLA-DQ2/8 high-risk population. Affected first-degree relatives, HLA-DQ risk group, paternal education level, and parents' country of birth were included as covariates.

RESULTS

There was a significantly increased risk of T1D in children with SLEs occurring during the child's first 2 years of life for both the total cohort (HR 1.67; 95% CI 1.1, 2.7; p = 0.03) and the DQ2/8 cohort (HR 2.2; 95% CI 1.1, 4.2; p = 0.018). Subgroup analysis of events related to unemployment, divorce, or family conflict showed a significant hazard for these events occurring both during and after pregnancy in the DQ2/8 cohort (HR 2.17; 95% CI 1.1, 4.3; p = 0.03 and HR 4.98; 95% CI 2.3, 11; p < 0.001, respectively) and after pregnancy in the total cohort (multiple regression HR 2.07; 95% CI 1.01, 4.2; p = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Children of parents experiencing an SLE during the child's first 2 years of life were at increased risk of T1D. Further studies including those measuring immune and stress-related biomarkers are necessary to validate the findings.

Safety and efficacy of autoantigen-specific therapy with 2 doses of alum-formulated glutamate decarboxylase in children with multiple islet autoantibodies and risk for type 1 diabetes: A randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

Treatments have failed to delay or stop the autoimmune process, preceding onset of type 1 diabetes. We investigated if autoantigen-specific treatment with alum-formulated glutamate decarboxylase (GAD-Alum) was safe and affected progression to type 1 diabetes in children with islet autoimmunity.

METHODS

In an investigator-initiated, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, non-diabetic children aged 4 to 17.9 years with autoantibodies to glutamate decarboxylase (GADA) and at least one of insulinoma-associated protein 2, insulin or zinc-transporter 8, were randomized, stratified by 2 or ≥3 islet autoantibodies, to 2 injections of 20 μg GAD-Alum or placebo, 30 days apart. Main outcome was safety, investigated by adverse events, hematology, chemistry, thyroid and celiac autoimmunity and titers of islet autoantibodies, and efficacy, investigated by cumulative incidence of diabetes onset over 5-year follow-up. Secondary variables: change in first-phase insulin release (FPIR) after intravenous glucose tolerance tests, fasting, 120 minutes and Area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide and p-glucose after oral glucose tolerance tests and HbA1c.

RESULTS

Fifty children (median age: 5.2) were assigned 1:1 to GAD-Alum or placebo, all receiving full treatment and included in the analyses. GAD-Alum did not affect any safety parameter, while GADA titers increased (P = .001). Time to clinical diagnosis was not affected by treatment (hazard ratio, HR = 0.77, P = .574) in the full population or in the separate stratum groups. Treatment did not affect any of the secondary variables.

CONCLUSIONS

GAD-Alum as a subcutaneous prime and boost injection was safe in prediabetic young children but did not affect progression to type 1 diabetes. The safety of GAD-Alum should prove useful in future prevention studies.

First trimester enterovirus IgM and beta cell autoantibodies in mothers to children affected by type 1 diabetes autoimmunity before 7 years of age

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune (type 1) diabetes (T1D) is a frequent chronic disease in children and adolescents globally. Gestational enterovirus (EV) infections have been associated with an increased risk for T1D in the offspring. We test the hypothesis that EV infections during the first trimester were associated with beta cell autoantibodies in mothers of children who developed islet autoantibodies before 7 years of age.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Local registries were used to identify mothers to children born 2000-2007 who developed either beta cell autoantibodies or T1D during follow up. Serum samples from the first trimester were located in the Biobank. A total of 448 index mothers were identified and compared to 891 matched control mothers. EV-IgM was determined in a capture enzyme immunoassay. Beta cell autoantibodies were analyzed in standard radio binding assays.

RESULTS

The frequency of EV-IgM in index mothers was 20% (89/448), which did not differ from the control mothers 20% (175/891) (p = 0.922). Index mothers had multiple beta cell autoantibodies more often than control mothers (p = 0.037). Beta cell autoantibodies were increased during the November-April winter months in index compared to control mothers (p = 0.022). The observed difference was possibly explained by the months of February-April (p = 0.014). Concomitant EV-IgM and beta cell autoantibodies tended to be more common among index compared to control mothers (p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

EV-IgM during the first trimester may be associated with beta cell autoantibodies in mothers to children who developed either beta cell autoantibodies or T1D before 7 years of age.

Are Perinatal Events Risk Factors for Childhood Thyroid Autoimmunity?

BACKGROUND

Environmental and genetic factors possibly trigger thyroid autoimmunity. Studies on perinatal risk factors for childhood thyroid autoimmunity are sparse.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to investigate if perinatal factors, family history of autoimmune diseases, and HLA-DQ genotypes contribute to thyroid autoimmunity in the Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study.

METHODS

Samples from 1,874 ten-year-old children were analyzed for autoantibodies to thyroid peroxidase (TPOAb), thyroglobulin (TGAb), and HLA-DQ genotypes. Information on perinatal events and family history of autoimmunity was gathered prospectively in questionnaires.

RESULTS

Thyroid autoimmunity was found in 6.9% of the children (TPOAb 4.4%, TGAb 5.8%, both autoantibodies 3.3%) and was overrepresented in girls. Prematurity was positively related to TGAb (OR: 2.4, p = 0.003, p_c = 0.021). Autoimmune diseases in the family increased the risk of thyroid autoimmunity: TPOAb (OR: 2.2, p = 0.012), any autoantibody (OR: 1.7, p = 0.04), and both autoantibodies (OR: 2.2, p = 0.024). A first-degree relative (FDR) with thyroid disease increased the risk for TPOAb (OR: 2.4, p = 0.03) and both autoantibodies (OR: 2.6, p = 0.03), a FDR or sibling with celiac disease increased the risk for both autoantibodies (OR: 3.7, p = 0.03, and OR: 4.8, p = 0.003), a FDR or sibling with diabetes increased the risk for thyroid autoantibody (OR: 3.0, p = 0.01, and OR: 5.4, p = 0.032), and a father with rheumatic disease increased the risk for TPOAb (OR: 15.2, p = 0.017), TGAb (OR: 11.3, p = 0.029), any autoantibody (OR: 9.6, p = 0.038), and both autoantibodies (OR: 20, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid autoimmunity was found in 6.9% of the 10-year-old children who were being followed for their risk of type 1 diabetes. No relation to perinatal factors was found, with the exception of a possible association between prematurity and TGAb. Family history of autoimmune diseases increased the risk of thyroid autoimmunity.

Analgesic antipyretic use among young children in the TEDDY study: no association with islet autoimmunity

BACKGROUND

The use of analgesic antipyretics (ANAP) in children have long been a matter of controversy. Data on their practical use on an individual level has, however, been scarce. There are indications of possible effects on glucose homeostasis and immune function related to the use of ANAP. The aim of this study was to analyze patterns of analgesic antipyretic use across the clinical centers of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) prospective cohort study and test if ANAP use was a risk factor for islet autoimmunity.

METHODS

Data were collected for 8542 children in the first 2.5 years of life. Incidence was analyzed using logistic regression with country and first child status as independent variables. Holm's procedure was used to adjust for multiplicity of intercountry comparisons. Time to autoantibody seroconversion was analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model with cumulative analgesic use as primary time dependent covariate of interest. For each categorization, a generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach was used.

RESULTS

Higher prevalence of ANAP use was found in the U.S. (95.7%) and Sweden (94.8%) compared to Finland (78.1%) and Germany (80.2%). First-born children were more commonly given acetaminophen (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.07, 1.49; p = 0.007) but less commonly Non-Steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAID) (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.78, 0.95; p = 0.002). Acetaminophen and NSAID use in the absence of fever and infection was more prevalent in the U.S. (40.4%; 26.3% of doses) compared to Sweden, Finland and Germany (p < 0.001). Acetaminophen or NSAID use before age 2.5 years did not predict development of islet autoimmunity by age 6 years (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.09; p = 0.27). In a sub-analysis, acetaminophen use in children with fever weakly predicted development of islet autoimmunity by age 3 years (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; p = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

ANAP use in young children is not a risk factor for seroconversion by age 6 years. Use of ANAP is widespread in young children, and significantly higher in the U.S. compared to other study sites, where use is common also in absence of fever and infection.

Cord blood insulinoma-associated protein 2 autoantibodies are associated with increased risk of type 1 diabetes in the population-based Diabetes Prediction in Skåne study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of cord blood autoantibodies on the risk for type 1 diabetes in children followed prospectively from birth.

METHODS

The Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study consists of 35,853 children from the general population born during 2000-2004. Samples were collected at birth and analysed for HLA genotypes and autoantibodies to glutamate decarboxylase 65 (GAD65), insulin and insulinoma-associated protein 2 (IA-2). After adjusting for HLA, sex, maternal age and parental type 1 diabetes, independent associations with risk of diabetes were assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

In total, 151 children (0.4%) had developed type 1 diabetes by the end of 2013 at a median age of 5.8 years (0.8-12.2 years). In the multivariate analysis, the presence of IA-2 autoantibodies (IA-2A) in cord blood (HR 6.88, 95% CI 1.46,32.4; p = 0.003), but not maternal diabetes (HR 1.38, 95% CI 0.24,7.84; p = 0.71), was associated with risk of developing type 1 diabetes. No increased risk could be seen for the presence of autoantibodies to GAD65 or insulin.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that the presence of cord blood IA-2A superimposes maternal diabetes and other cord blood islet autoantibodies as a predictor of type 1 diabetes development in the child. These findings may be of significance for future screening and study protocols on type 1 diabetes prediction.

Reduced morbidity at diagnosis and improved glycemic control in children previously enrolled in DiPiS follow-up

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Children participating in longitudinal type 1 diabetes prediction studies were reported to have less severe disease at diabetes diagnosis. Our aim was to investigate children who from birth participated in the Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study for metabolic status at diagnosis and then continued to be followed for 2 yr of regular clinical care.

METHODS

Children, followed in DiPiS before diagnosis, were compared to children in the same birth cohort, who did not participate in follow-up. Metabolic status, symptoms at diagnosis as well as hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and doses of insulin at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after diagnosis were compared.

RESULTS

Children, followed in DiPiS and diagnosed at 2-12 yr of age, had 0.8% (9 mmol/mol) lower HbA1c at diagnosis than those who were not followed (p = 0.006). At diagnosis, fewer DiPiS children had symptoms (p = 0.014) and ketoacidosis at diagnosis were reduced (2% compared to 18%, p = 0.005). During regular clinical care, HbA1c levels for the DiPiS children remained lower both at 12 (0.4% (4 mmol/mol); p = 0.009) and 24 months (0.8% (9 mmol/mol) p  <  0.001) after diagnosis, despite no difference in total daily insulin between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Participation in prospective follow-up before diagnosis of type 1 diabetes leads to earlier diagnosis with fewer symptoms, decreased incidence of ketoacidosis as well as better metabolic control up to 2 yr after diagnosis. Our data indicate that metabolic control at the time of diabetes diagnosis is important for early metabolic control possibly affecting the risk of long-term complications.

Is obesity a risk factor for impaired cognition in young adults with low birth weight?

BACKGROUND

Overweight and obesity are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. There is also an association between body mass index (BMI) and cognitive ability. Since low birth weight is associated with adult metabolic disease, particularly in obese subjects, the question emerges whether obesity has an additional negative effect on cognitive function in subjects with low birth weight.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to analyse whether overweight or obesity influence intellectual performance in young adults with particular focus on those with a low birth weight.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Swedish Medical Birth Register on 620,834 males born between 1973 and 1988 and matched to results on intellectual performance and BMI at conscription.

RESULTS

The risk for low intellectual performance was higher for those with high BMI compared to those with normal. The highest risk was found among subjects with low birth weight and overweight or obesity in young adulthood (odds ratios, 1.98 [1.73-2.22] and 2.59 [2.00-3.34], respectively). However, subjects with further high birth weight and a high BMI at conscription had no further increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Overweight and obesity are associated with an increased risk of subnormal intellectual performance in young adult males. Subjects with low birth weight and adolescent overweight/obesity are at particular risk of subnormal performance. A high birth weight increases the risk for obesity, but a high adult BMI does not further increase the risk for subnormal performance.