The empty pelvis syndrome: a core data set from the PelvEx collaborative

BACKGROUND

Empty pelvis syndrome (EPS) is a significant source of morbidity following pelvic exenteration (PE), but is undefined. EPS outcome reporting and descriptors of radicality of PE are inconsistent; therefore, the best approaches for prevention are unknown. To facilitate future research into EPS, the aim of this study is to define a measurable core outcome set, core descriptor set and written definition for EPS. Consensus on strategies to mitigate EPS was also explored.

METHOD

Three-stage consensus methodology was used: longlisting with systematic review, healthcare professional event, patient engagement, and Delphi-piloting; shortlisting with two rounds of modified Delphi; and a confirmatory stage using a modified nominal group technique. This included a selection of measurement instruments, and iterative generation of a written EPS definition.

RESULTS

One hundred and three and 119 participants took part in the modified Delphi and consensus meetings, respectively. This encompassed international patient and healthcare professional representation with multidisciplinary input. Seventy statements were longlisted, seven core outcomes (bowel obstruction, enteroperineal fistula, chronic perineal sinus, infected pelvic collection, bowel obstruction, morbidity from reconstruction, re-intervention, and quality of life), and four core descriptors (magnitude of surgery, radiotherapy-induced damage, methods of reconstruction, and changes in volume of pelvic dead space) reached consensus-where applicable, measurement of these outcomes and descriptors was defined. A written definition for EPS was agreed.

CONCLUSIONS

EPS is an area of unmet research and clinical need. This study provides an agreed definition and core data set for EPS to facilitate further research.

Evaluation of methods for assigning causes of death from verbal autopsies in India

Background

Physician-coded verbal autopsy (PCVA) is the most widely used method to determine causes of death (COD) in countries where medical certification of death is low. Computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA), an alternative method to PCVA for assigning the COD is considered to be efficient and cost-effective. However, the performance of CCVA as compared to PCVA is yet to be established in the Indian context.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of PCVA and three CCVA methods i.e., InterVA 5, InSilico, and Tariff 2.0 on verbal autopsies done using the WHO 2016 VA tool on 2,120 reference standard cases developed from five tertiary care hospitals of Delhi. PCVA methodology involved dual independent review with adjudication, where required. Metrics to assess performance were Cause Specific Mortality Fraction (CSMF), sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), CSMF Accuracy, and Kappa statistic.

Results

In terms of the measures of the overall performance of COD assignment methods, for CSMF Accuracy, the PCVA method achieved the highest score of 0.79, followed by 0.67 for Tariff_2.0, 0.66 for Inter-VA and 0.62 for InSilicoVA. The PCVA method also achieved the highest agreement (57%) and Kappa scores (0.54). The PCVA method showed the highest sensitivity for 15 out of 20 causes of death.

Conclusion

Our study found that the PCVA method had the best performance out of all the four COD assignment methods that were tested in our study sample. In order to improve the performance of CCVA methods, multicentric studies with larger sample sizes need to be conducted using the WHO VA tool.

Implementation research for developing Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems: lessons from Indonesia

Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems are the optimal source for data on births, deaths and causes of death for health policy, programme evaluation and research. In Indonesia, indicators such as life expectancy at birth, childhood and maternal mortality rates and cause-specific death rates need to be routinely monitored for national health policy. However, the CRVS system is not yet producing reliable vital statistics, which creates a challenge for evidence-based health action. In 2019, the Indonesian government released a national strategy for the CRVS system, with targets for improved coverage and data quality by 2024. This article describes findings from a programme of formative and implementation research to guide the application of the national strategy. At first, a detailed CRVS assessment and gap analysis were undertaken using an international framework. The assessment findings were used to develop a revised business process model for reporting deaths and their causes at village, subdistrict and district level. In addition, a field instruction manual was also developed to guide personnel in implementation. Two field sites in Java-Malang District and Kudus Regency were selected for pilot testing the reporting procedures, and relevant site preparation and training were carried out. Data compilations for Malang in 2019 and Kudus in 2020 were analysed to derive mortality indicators. High levels of death reporting completeness (83% to 89%) were reported from both districts, along with plausible cause-specific mortality profiles, although the latter need further validation. The study findings establish the feasibility of implementing revised death reporting procedures at the local level, as well as demonstrate sustainability through institutionalisation and capacity building, and can be used to accelerate further development of the CRVS system in Indonesia.

Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death: A Review of Methods and Practices

BACKGROUND

Research and reporting of mortality indicators typically focus on a single underlying cause of death selected from multiple causes recorded on a death certificate. The need to incorporate the multiple causes in mortality statistics-reflecting increasing multimorbidity and complex causation patterns-is recognized internationally. This review aims to identify and appraise relevant analytical methods and practices related to multiple causes.

METHODS

We searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from their incept ion to December 2020 without language restrictions, supplemented by consultation with international experts. Eligible articles analyzed multiple causes of death from death certificates. The process identified 4,080 items of which we reviewed 434 full-text articles.

RESULTS

Most articles we reviewed (76%, n = 332) were published since 2001. The majority of articles examined mortality by "any- mention" of the cause of death (87%, n = 377) and assessed pairwise combinations of causes (57%, n = 245). Since 2001, applications of methods emerged to group deaths based on common cause patterns using, for example, cluster analysis (2%, n = 9), and application of multiple-cause weights to re-evaluate mortality burden (1%, n = 5). We describe multiple-cause methods applied to specific research objectives for approaches emerging recently.

CONCLUSION

This review confirms rapidly increasing international interest in the analysis of multiple causes of death and provides the most comprehensive overview, to our knowledge, of methods and practices to date. Available multiple-cause methods are diverse but suit a range of research objectives. With greater availability of data and technology, these could be further developed and applied across a range of settings.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

The Cost-effectiveness of Watch and Wait for Rectal Cancer

The existing literature suggests with a high degree of certainty that watch and wait is more cost-effective than initial total mesorectal excision. However, it is heavily reliant on poor-quality health-related quality of life data. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of organ preservation from a broader societal perspective has not been studied. Finally, the cost-effectiveness of emerging adjuncts to watch and wait for organ preservation, such as contact X-ray brachytherapy, local excision and total neoadjuvant therapy, need to be characterised.

Minimum standards of pelvic exenterative practice: PelvEx Collaborative guideline

This document outlines the important aspects of caring for patients who have been diagnosed with advanced pelvic cancer. It is primarily aimed at those who are establishing a service that adequately caters to this patient group. The relevant literature has been summarized and an attempt made to simplify the approach to management of these complex cases.

Quantifying cause-related mortality in Australia, incorporating multiple causes: observed patterns, trends and practical considerations

BACKGROUND

Mortality statistics using a single underlying cause of death (UC) are key health indicators. Rising multimorbidity and chronic disease mean that deaths increasingly involve multiple conditions. However, additional causes reported on death certificates are rarely integrated into mortality indicators, partly due to complexities in data and methods. This study aimed to assess trends and patterns in cause-related mortality in Australia, integrating multiple causes (MC) of death.

METHODS

Deaths (n = 1 773 399) in Australia (2006-17) were mapped to 136 ICD-10-based groups and MC indicators applied. Age-standardized cause-related rates (deaths/100 000) based on the UC (ASRUC) were compared with rates based on any mention of the cause (ASRAM) using rate ratios (RR = ASRAM/ASRUC) and to rates based on weighting multiple contributing causes (ASRW).

RESULTS

Deaths involved on average 3.4 causes in 2017; the percentage with >4 causes increased from 20.9 (2006) to 24.4 (2017). Ischaemic heart disease (ASRUC = 73.3, ASRAM = 135.8, ASRW = 63.5), dementia (ASRUC = 51.1, ASRAM = 98.1, ASRW = 52.1) and cerebrovascular diseases (ASRUC = 39.9, ASRAM = 76.7, ASRW = 33.5) ranked as leading causes by all methods. Causes with high RR included hypertension (ASRUC = 2.2, RR = 35.5), atrial fibrillation (ASRUC = 8.0, RR = 6.5) and diabetes (ASRUC = 18.5, RR = 3.5); the corresponding ASRW were 12.5, 12.6 and 24.0, respectively. Renal failure, atrial fibrillation and hypertension ranked among the 10 leading causes by ASRAM and ASRW but not by ASRUC. Practical considerations in working with MC data are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the similarities in leading causes under the three methods, with integration of MC several preventable diseases emerged as leading causes. MC analyses offer a richer additional perspective for population health monitoring and policy development.

Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS-attributed mortalities and associated sociodemographic factors in Papua New Guinea: evidence from the comprehensive health and epidemiological surveillance system

OBJECTIVE

Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV/AIDS are public health concerns in Papua New Guinea (PNG). This study examines TB and HIV/AIDS mortalities and associated sociodemographic factors in PNG.

METHOD

As part of a longitudinal study, verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted using the WHO 2016 VA Instrument to collect data of 926 deaths occurred in the communities within the catchment areas of the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System from 2018 to 2020.InterVA-5 cause of deaths analytical tool was used to assign specific causes of death (COD). Multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify associated sociodemographic factors, estimate adjusted ORs (AOR), 95% CIs and p values.

RESULT

TB and HIV/AIDS were the leading CODs from infectious diseases, attributed to 9% and 8% of the total deaths, respectively.Young adults (25-34 years) had the highest proportion of deaths from TB (20%) and the risk of dying from TB among this age group was five times more likely than those aged 75+ years (AOR: 5.5 (95% CI 1.4 to 21.7)). Urban populations were 46% less likely to die from this disease compared rural ones although the difference was not significant (AOR: 0.54 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.0)). People from middle household wealth quintile were three times more likely to die from TB than those in the richest quintile (AOR: 3.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 7.4)).Young adults also had the highest proportion of deaths to HIV/AIDS (18%) and were nearly seven times more likely to die from this disease compared with those aged 75+years (AOR: 6.7 (95% CI 1.7 to 25.4)). Males were 48% less likely to die from HIV/AIDS than females (AOR: 0.52 (95% CI 0.3 to 0.9)). The risk of dying from HIV/AIDS in urban population was 54% less likely than their rural counterparts (AOR: 0.46 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.9)).

CONCLUSION

TB and HIV/AIDS interventions are needed to target vulnerable populations to reduce premature mortality from these diseases in PNG.

Subnational mortality estimates for India in 2019: a baseline for evaluating excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Estimates of excess mortality are required to assess and compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across populations. For India, reliable baseline prepandemic mortality patterns at national and subnational level are necessary for such assessments. However, available data from the Civil Registration System (CRS) is affected by incompleteness of death recording that varies by sex, age and location.

METHODS

Under-reporting of CRS 2019 deaths was assessed for three age groups (< 5 years, 15-59 years and ≥60 years) at subnational level, through comparison with age-specific death rates from alternate sources. Age-specific corrections for under-reporting were applied to derive adjusted death counts by sex for each location. These were used to compute life expectancy (LE) at birth by sex in 2019, which were compared with subnational LEs from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study.

RESULTS

A total of 9.92 million deaths (95% UI 9.70 to 10.02) were estimated across India in 2019, about 2.28 million more than CRS reports. Adjustments to under-five and elderly mortality accounted for 30% and 56% of additional deaths, respectively. Adjustments in Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh accounted for 75% of all additional deaths. Adjusted LEs were below corresponding GBD estimates by ≥2 years for males at national level and in 20 states, and by ≥1 year for females in 12 states.

CONCLUSIONS

These results represent the first-ever subnational mortality estimates for India derived from CRS reported deaths, and serve as a baseline for assessing excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjusted life expectancies indicate higher mortality patterns in India than previously perceived. Under-reporting of infant deaths and those among women and the elderly is evident in many locations. Further CRS strengthening is required to improve the empirical basis for local mortality measurement across the country.

Mortality estimates for WHO SEAR countries: problems and prospects

Cause-specific mortality estimates for 11 countries located in the WHO’s South East Asia Region (WHO SEAR) are generated periodically by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the WHO Global Health Estimates (GHE) analyses. A comparison of GBD and GHE estimates for 2019 for 11 specific causes of epidemiological importance to South East Asia was undertaken. An index of relative difference (RD) between the estimated numbers of deaths by sex for each cause from the two sources for each country was calculated, and categorised as marginal (RD=±0%–9%), moderate (RD=±10%–19%), high (RD=±20%–39%) and extreme (RD>±40%). The comparison identified that the RD was >10% in two-thirds of all instances. The RD was ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ for deaths from tuberculosis, diarrhoea, road injuries and suicide for most SEAR countries, and for deaths from most of the 11 causes in Bangladesh, DPR Korea, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka. For all WHO SEAR countries, mortality estimates from both sources are based on statistical models developed from an international historical cause-specific mortality data series that included very limited empirical data from the region. Also, there is no scientific rationale available to justify the reliability of one set of estimates over the other. The characteristics of national mortality statistics systems for each WHO SEAR country were analysed, to understand the reasons for weaknesses in empirical data. The systems analysis identified specific limitations in structure, organisation and implementation that affect data completeness, validity of causes of death and vital statistics production, which vary across countries. Therefore, customised national strategies are required to strengthen mortality statistics systems to meet immediate and long-term data needs for health policy and research, and reduce dependence on current unreliable modelled estimates.

711 Effect of Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass on HbA1c As Well As Number of Medications in Diabetic Patients

Aim

Roux en Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is known to ameliorate Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in morbidly obese patients. We aimed to determine both the reduction in the glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and the number of anti-diabetic medications (including insulin) in diabetic patients undergoing RYGB over a five-year period.

Method

We reviewed data of diabetic patients (n = 530) who underwent RYGB from January 2012 – December 2017, including those with a minimum of a 2-year post-operative follow up (n = 47). Preoperatively, BMI, HbA1c and the number of anti-diabetic medications and the duration of T2DM since diagnosis were recorded. These measurements were repeated at the end of the two year follow up.

Results

At the time of enrolment in the bariatric programme, the median BMI was 42.5 (range, 31.7-61.5) kg/m2, mean duration of T2DM was 58 months and median HbA1c was 59 (37-118) mmol/mol. The mean number of anti-diabetic medications taken, including insulin, was 2. At the end of 2-year follow-up, the median BMI was 32 (range, 24-41) kg/m2 and HbA1c was 41(range, 33-91) mmol/mol. 15 patients (31.9%) still required anti-diabetic medication, 12 of whom had a diagnosis of T2DM for 3 years or more at time of enrolment.

Conclusions

RYGB is strongly associated with a resolution of T2DM in morbidly obese patients. In those who were not resolved, the number of anti-diabetic medications taken and HbA1c were reduced. The impact of the surgery is dependent on the duration of T2DM since diagnosis preoperatively.

923Quantifying multiple causes of death: Observed patterns in Australia, 2006–2017

Background

Four fifths of deaths in Australia involve multiple causes, but statistics typically use a single underlying cause of death (UC). The UC approach alone is insufficient for understanding the impact of non-underlying causes and identifying comorbid disease associations at death. Analysis of multiple causes of death (MC) is needed to measure the impact of all causes. We described MC patterns, considering cause-of-death coding and certification practices in Australia.

Methods

Using deaths registered in Australia from 2006 to 2017 (n = 1773525) coded to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and an extended classification (n = 136 causes) based on a World Health Organization short list, we described MCoD data by cause. Age-standardised rates based on UC and MC were compared using the standardised ratio of multiple to underlying causes (SRMU) to estimate the contribution of the cause to mortality compared to using the UC approach. Comorbidity was explored using the cause of death association indicator (CDAI) to compare the observed joint frequency of a contributory-underlying cause combined with expected frequency of the contributory cause (with any UC).

Results

On average 3.4 conditions caused each death and 24.4% of deaths had 5 plus causes. Largest SRMUs were for genitourinary diseases (8.0), blood diseases (7.8) and musculoskeletal conditions (6.7). CDAIs showed high associations between, for example, accidental alcohol and opioid poisoning, septicaemia and skin infections, and traumatic brain injury and falls.

Conclusions

MC indicators enhance measures of mortality and reassess the role of causes of death for descriptive and analytical epidemiology.

Key messages

This research demonstrates the value of MC analysis for Australian mortality data.

892Quantification of mortality incorporating multiple causes of death: Application of weighting strategies to Australian data

Background

Mortality statistics are typically based on a single underlying cause of death (UCoD). Although UCoD provides a useful construct, the relevance of assuming that a single disease caused the death is diminishing, especially with increased life expectancy and high proportions of deaths in older ages from chronic/degenerative diseases. Focussing on common underlying causes of death in Australia, we quantified mortality incorporating weighting strategies for multiple causes of death (MCoD).

Methods

All deaths registered in Australia from 2015-2017 (478,396 deaths) and coded using International Classification of Diseases Version 10 were classified using an extended cause list (n = 136 causes) based on a World Health Organization short list. Age-standardised rates (ASR) were estimated using three weighting methods: (1) traditional approach using UCoD alone; (2) UCoD and associated causes of death (ACoDs) equally weighted and (3) UCoD weighted 0.5 arbitrarily and remaining 0.5 apportioned to the remaining ACoDs.

Results

Common UCoD were ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia; 57671, 31515 and 27377 deaths respectively. There were substantial changes in ASR depending on the weighting method used. Variation in mortality patterns estimated using the three weighting methods and challenges to further refinement of the weighting strategy will be discussed.

Conclusions

Mortality indicators incorporating MCoD enhance traditional measures of mortality and provide a means to reassess the role of diseases in causing death. Further disease specific methods are required to refine current weighting strategies.

Key messages

Weighting strategies for are useful for quantifying mortality incorporating MCoD, but methodological challenges exist.

1000Quantifying multiple causes of death: A systematic review and audit of methods and practice

Background

Mortality reporting and research are typically focused on a single underlying cause of death (UCoD) selected from multiple reported causes. The need to incorporate multiple causes of death (MCoD) in mortality statistics is now recognised internationally, but there is scant methodological work to guide analytical approaches. This review aims to identify and appraise current methods and practices used to analyse MCoD data.

Methods

The Web of Science, Medline, Pubmed and Scopus (from inception to December 2019) were queried. Studies reporting MCoD alone or in comparison with single UCoD were included. The review is supplemented by qualitative interview with international experts.

Results

3491 studies were identified; 141 full texts were included in the review. The measures usually estimated when analysing MCoD can be broadly categorised into descriptive measures (n = 93 studies), measures of associations between diseases (n = 46 studies) and advanced statistical methods (n = 11 studies). Descriptive statistics commonly used include standardized ratio of multiple to underlying cause (SRMU) and mortality rates based on any mention of a disease. Approaches used to assess measures of associations between diseases include the Cause-of-Death Association Indicator (CDAI) and social network analysis. The advanced statistical methods include weighting MCoD and lethal defect-wear model of mortality. Audit results will be discussed.

Conclusions

This review provides a comprehensive and updated summary of methodological approaches used to analyse MCoD data. The merit of each analytical framework is discussed.

Key messages

More work is needed to develop methodological frameworks that could be used to support routine consideration of MCoD in practice.

Is the Management of Rectal Cancer Using a Watch and Wait Approach Feasible, Safe and Effective in a Publicly Funded General Hospital?

AIMS

Although there is emerging evidence to suggest equivalent oncological outcomes using a watch and wait approach compared with primary total mesorectal excision surgery, there is a paucity of evidence about the safety and efficacy of this approach in routine clinical practice. Here we report the long-term outcomes and quality of life from patients managed with watch and wait following a clinical complete response (cCR) to neoadjuvant therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with adenocarcinoma of the rectum with cCR following neoadjuvant therapy managed using watch and wait were retrospectively identified. Demographic data, performance status, pretreatment staging information, oncological and surgical outcomes were obtained from routinely collected clinical data. Quality of life was measured by trained clinicians during telephone interviews.

RESULTS

Over a 7-year period, 506 patients were treated for rectal cancer, 276 had neoadjuvant therapy and 72 had a cCR (26.1%). Sixty-three were managed with watch and wait. Thirteen patients had mucosal regrowth. There was no significant difference in the incidence of metastatic disease between the surgical and watch and wait cohorts (P = 0.38). The 13 patients with mucosal regrowth underwent salvage surgery. Eleven of the patients who underwent surgical resection had R0 resections. There was also a statistically and clinically significant improvement in the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Colorectal (FACT-C) trial outcome index (P = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that watch and wait is safe and effective outside of tertiary referral centres. It suggests that an opportunistic cCR is durable and when mucosal regrowth occurs it can be salvaged. Finally, we have shown that quality of life is probably improved if a watch and wait approach is adopted.

Effect of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality related to high-risk emergency and major elective surgery

These data show large reductions in both elective and emergency activity that are concerning for unmeasured morbidity and mortality within the community. The risk of mortality following high-risk EGS and major elective surgery during the first wave of the pandemic did not differ when compared with date-matched patient cohorts from 2019. The prevalence of concomitant SARS-CoV-2 infection in this surgical population is low.

Premature adult mortality in India: what is the size of the matter?

Background

Reducing adult mortality by 2030 is a key component of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs). Monitoring progress towards these goals requires timely and reliable information on deaths by age, sex and cause. To estimate baseline measures for UNSDGs, this study aimed to use several different data sources to estimate subnational measures of premature adult mortality (between 30 and 70 years) for India in 2017.

Methods

Age-specific population and mortality data were accessed for India and its 21 larger states from the Civil Registration System and Sample Registration System for 2017, and the most recent National Family and Health Survey. Similar data on population and deaths were also procured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 and the National Burden of Disease Estimates Study for 2017. Life table methods were used to estimate life expectancy and age-specific mortality at national and state level from each source. An additional set of life tables were estimated using an international two-parameter model life table system. Three indicators of premature adult mortality were derived by sex for each location and from each data source, for comparative analysis

Results

Marked variations in mortality estimates from different sources were noted for each state. Assuming the highest mortality level from all sources as the potentially true value, premature adult mortality was estimated to cause a national total of 2.6 million male and 1.8 million female deaths in 2017, with Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal accounting for half of these deaths. There was marked heterogeneity in risk of premature adult mortality, ranging from 351 per 1000 in Kerala to 558 per 1000 in Chhattisgarh among men, and from 198 per 1000 in Himachal Pradesh to 409 per 1000 in Assam among women.

Conclusions

Available data and estimates for mortality measurement in India are riddled with uncertainty. While the findings from this analysis may be useful for initial subnational health policy to address UNSDGs, more reliable empirical data is required for monitoring and evaluation. For this, strengthening death registration, improving methods for cause of death ascertainment and establishment of robust mortality statistics programs are a priority.

Empiricism in non-communicable disease mortality measurement for the Asia-Pacific: lost in translation

Control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a key target for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. Available information indicates that countries in the Asia-Pacific Region accounted for 63% of the global NCD mortality burden in 2016. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia Pacific (UNESCAP) Regional SDG progress report for 2020 included estimates of trends in NCD mortality rates from 2000 to 2016, which showed considerable variation in national NCD mortality by sex and location.

However, while the UNESCAP report states that there was sufficient primary data to derive these NCD mortality estimates for all countries, the critical gaps in availability of national data on causes of death in the Asia-Pacific region are well known. A closer review identified that the UNESCAP obtained these estimates from the United Nations Statistics Division, which in turn obtained the same estimates from WHO. Further analysis revealed that these organisations used varying and often inconsistent terms to describe estimation methodology as well as primary data availability for different countries, with substantial potential for misinterpretation.

The analysis also found that for countries without primary data, WHO reported NCD mortality estimates were based on complex epidemiological models developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, and this contradicts the UNESCAP rating of primary data sufficiency. The GBD Study also derives modelled cause of death estimates for countries with national data, but these were different from WHO estimates for these countries. This article discusses prevailing international practices in using modelled estimates as a substitute for empirical data, and the implications of these practices for health policy. In conclusion, a strategic approach to strengthen national mortality statistics programmes in data deficient countries is presented, to improve NCD mortality measurement in the Asia-Pacific Region.

The civil registration system is a potentially viable data source for reliable subnational mortality measurement in India

Introduction

The Indian national Civil Registration System (CRS) is the optimal data source for subnational mortality measurement, but is yet under development. As an alternative, data from the Sample Registration System (SRS), which covers less than 1% of the national population, is used. This article presents a comparison of mortality measures from the SRS and CRS in 2017, and explores the potential of the CRS to meet these subnational data needs.

Methods

Data on population and deaths by age and sex for 2017 from each source were used to compute national-level and state-level life tables. Sex-specific ratios of death probabilities in five age categories (0–4, 5–14, 15–29, 30–69, 70–84) were used to evaluate CRS data completeness using SRS probabilities as reference values. The quality of medically certified causes of death was assessed through hospital reporting coverage and proportions of deaths registered with ill-defined causes from each state.

Results

The CRS operates through an extensive infrastructure with high reporting coverage, but child deaths are uniformly under-reported, as are female deaths in many states. However, at ages 30–69 years, CRS death probabilities are higher than the SRS values in 15 states for males and 10 states for females. SRS death probabilities are of limited precision for measuring mortality trends and differentials. Data on medically certified causes of death are of limited use due to low hospital reporting coverage.

Conclusions

The Indian CRS is more reliable than the SRS for measuring adult mortality in several states. Targeted initiatives to improve the recording of child and female deaths, to strengthen the reporting and quality of medically certified causes of death, and to promote use of verbal autopsy methods can establish the CRS as a reliable source of subnational mortality statistics in the near future.

Lessons Learnt and Pathways forward for National Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems after the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on government services in many areas, including Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS). However, the pandemic has also highlighted the importance of recording of mortality and causes of death, with some potentially positive impacts for longer term CRVS strengthening, including: (1) increasing online provision of registration services (2) reporting of mortality statistics from settings which had not previously done so (3) improved intersectoral cooperation, particularly with the health sector, improving the ability to record deaths and (4) increased awareness among governments and public of the importance of mortality statistics. Now, it is pressing for national governments, and international organizations working to strengthen CRVS systems, to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies adopted over the last year, and use lessons learnt to catalyse broader sustainable CRVS improvement strategies, providing governments with essential data on mortality and causes of death into the future.

Comparative performance of verbal autopsy methods in identifying causes of adult mortality: A case study in India

Background & objectives:

Cause of death assignment from verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires is conventionally accomplished through physician review. However, since recently, computer softwares have been developed to assign the cause of death. The present study evaluated the performance of computer software in assigning the cause of death from the VA, as compared to physician review.

Methods:

VA of 600 adult deaths was conducted using open- and close-ended questionnaires in Nandpur Kalour Block of Punjab, India. Entire VA forms were used by two physicians independently to assign the cause of death using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD)-10 codes. In case of disagreement between them, reconciliation was done, and in cases of persistent disagreements finally, adjudication was done by a third physician. InterVA-4-generated causes from close-ended questionnaires were compared using Kappa statistics with causes assigned by physicians using a questionnaire having both open- and close-ended questions. At the population level, Cause-Specific Mortality Fraction (CSMF) accuracy and P-value from McNemar’s paired Chi-square were calculated. CSMF accuracy indicates the absolute deviation of a set of proportions of causes of death out of the total number of deaths between the two methods.

Results:

The overall agreement between InterVA-4 and physician coding was ‘fair’ (κ=0.42; 95% confidence interval 0.38, 0.46). CSMF accuracy was found to be 0.71. The differences in proportions from the two methods were statistically different as per McNemar’s paired Chi-square test for ischaemic heart diseases, liver cirrhosis and maternal deaths.

Interpretation & conclusions:

In comparison to physicians, assignment of causes of death by InterVA- 4 was only ‘fair’. Hence, it may be appropriate to continue with physician review as the optimal option available in the current scenario.

Building Capacity for Mortality Statistics Programs: Perspectives from the Indonesian Experience

Information on deaths by age, sex, and cause are primary inputs for health policy and epidemiological research. Currently, most developing countries lack efficient death registration systems that generate these data on a routine and timely basis. The global community is promoting initiatives to establish and strengthen national mortality statistics programs across the developing world. Building human, technical, and institutional capacity to operate these programs are essential elements for the program. In Indonesia, the government has established a national Sample Registration System (SRS) covering a population of 9 million and is looking toward further scaling up of operations of the mortality statistics program in conjunction with expansion of the national Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems. This article reports the theoretical and practical perspectives gained from experiences in developing human capacity in the Indonesian context. These perspectives are described in terms of the institutional, personnel, and functional components of the program for collection, compilation, analysis, and utilisation of mortality and cause of death data. The article also describes the challenges and potential solutions for implementing capacity building activities at national and subnational level. In conclusion, the need for and availability of training resources are discussed, including the potential for involvement of public health academia and international collaborations within a research framework on program management, quality evaluation, and data utilisation. Adequate attention to capacity building is essential to ensure the success and sustainability of national mortality statistics programs.

Evaluating the quality of evidence for diagnosing ischemic heart disease from verbal autopsy in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Mortality and cause of death data are fundamental to health policy development. Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems are the ideal data source, but the system is still under development in Indonesia. A national Sample Registration System (SRS) has provided nationally representative mortality data from 128 sub-districts since 2014. Verbal autopsy (VA) is used in the SRS to obtain causes of death. The quality of VA data must be evaluated as part of the SRS data quality assessment.

AIM

To assess the strength of evidence used in the assignment of Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) as causes of death from VA.

METHODS

The sample frame for this study is the 4,070 deaths that had IHD assigned as the underlying cause in the SRS 2016 database. From these, 400 cases were randomly selected. A data extraction form and data entry template were designed to collect relevant data about IHD from VA questionnaires. A standardised categorisation was designed to assess the strength of evidence used to infer IHD as a cause of death. A pilot test of 50 cases was carried out. IBM SPSS software was used in this study.

RESULTS

Strong evidence of IHD as a cause of death was assigned based on surgery for coronary heart disease, chest pain and two out of: sudden death, history of heart disease, medical diagnosis of heart disease, or terminal shortness of breath. More than half (53%) of the questionnaires contained strong evidence. For deaths outside health facilities, VA questionnaires for male deaths contained acceptable evidence in significantly higher proportions as compared to those for female deaths. (P < 0.001). Nearly half of all IHD deaths were concentrated in the 50-69 year age group (48.40%), and a further 36.10% were aged 70 years or more. Nearly two-thirds of the deceased were male (58.40%). Smoking behaviour was found in 44.11% of IHD deaths, but this figure was 73.82% among males.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the VA questionnaires from the study sample were found to contain strong evidence to infer IHD as the cause of death. Results from medical records such as electrocardiograms, coronary angiographies, and load tests could have improved the strength of evidence and contributed to IHD cause of death diagnosis.

Elements of a strategic approach for strengthening national mortality statistics programmes

Information on cause-specific mortality from civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems is essential for health policy and epidemiological research. Currently, there are critical gaps in the international availability of timely and reliable mortality data, which limits planned progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This article describes an evidence-based strategic approach for strengthening mortality data from CRVS systems. National mortality data availability scores from the Global Burden of Disease study were used to group countries into those with adequate, partial or negligible mortality data. These were further categorised by geographical region and population size, which showed that there were shortcomings in availability of mortality data in approximately two-thirds of all countries. Existing frameworks for evaluating design and functional status of mortality components of CRVS systems were reviewed to identify themes and topics for assessment. Detailed national programme assessments can be used to investigate systemic issues that are likely to affect death reporting, cause of death ascertainment and data management. Assessment findings can guide interventions to strengthen system performance. The strategic national approach should be customised according to data availability and population size and supported by human and institutional capacity building. Countries with larger populations should use an incremental sampling approach to strengthen CRVS systems and use interim data for mortality estimation. Periodic data quality evaluation is required to monitor system performance and scale up interventions. A comprehensive implementation and operations research programme should be concurrently launched to evaluate the feasibility, success and sustainability of system strengthening activities.

Changes in proportional mortality from diabetes and circulatory disease in Mauritius and Fiji: possible effects of coding and certification

Background

Many developing countries are experiencing the epidemiological transition, with the majority of deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and others. In some countries, large proportional mortality attributed to diabetes is evident in official mortality statistics, with Mauritius and Fiji rated as the highest in the world.

Methods

This study investigates trends in recorded diabetes and cardiovascular disease mortality in Mauritius and Fiji under coding from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) versions 9 and 10, using mortality data reported from these countries to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Results

In Mauritius over 1981–2004, T2DM proportional mortality varied between 4% and 7% in males (M) and 5% and 9% in females (F). In 2005 there was a sudden increase to M 20% and F 25%, which continued to M 25% and F 30% by 2012. Over 1981–2004 the proportion of circulatory disease mortality rose from 44% to 49% in males, and from 46% to 57% in females. In 2005, circulatory disease mortality proportions fell precipitously to 34% in males and 37% in females, and declined to 31% and 34% by 2013. ICD–10 coding was introduced in 2005.

In Fiji, sharp rises in proportional T2DM mortality from 3% in both sexes in 2001 to M 15% and F 20% in 2002 were followed by more gradual trend increases to M 20% and F 26% by 2012–13. Circulatory disease proportions fell steeply from M 57% and F 53% in 2001 to M 44% and M 38% by 2004, with subsequent less steep declines to M 39% and F 30% by 2012. ICD–10 coding was introduced in 2001.

Conclusions

Large, abrupt changes in diabetes and circulatory disease proportional mortality in Fiji and Mauritius coincided with the local introduction of ICD–10 coding in different years. There is also evidence for diabetes-related misclassification of underlying cause of death in Australia and the USA. These artefacts can undermine accurate monitoring of cause of death for evaluation of effectiveness of prevention and control, especially of circulatory disease mortality which is demonstrably reversible in populations.

Death in Transitional Asia: 11-Year All-Cause Mortality in the Thai Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: Thailand is experiencing a substantial reduction in overall mortality, an ageing society and increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases. There is an urgent need to understand locally important risk factors for this new disease burden and their distribution. We investigated risk factors for mortality in a large cohort of Thai adults and report on key trends. PARTICIPANTS: A nationwide cohort of 87,151 Thai adults followed up since 2005 with their data records linked to the Thai civil registration system to monitor mortality up to the end of 2016. METHODS: We used logistic regression models to measure associations between a large range of socio-demographic, health behaviour and health status variables and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 1402 cohort members died between 2005 and 2016. In fully-adjusted models higher income, female sex, and higher education had the strongest protective effects against mortality. Normal body weight also protected (AOR 0.71 [0.52-0.96] with Obese as reference). Heavy smoking (AOR 1.48 [1.29-1.70]), and regular alcohol consumption (AOR 1.37 [1.12-1.68]) were associated with the highest mortality. Experiencing injury in the year proceeding the baseline survey also associated with increased mortality, while urbanising since childhood had a protective effect. CONCLUSION: This study adds to evidence regarding risks for all-cause mortality in Thailand. Results indicate the need for Thailand to maintain successful tobacco control programs and to address the effects of increased alcohol consumption. The protective effect of higher education is particularly important in Thailand given the growing proportion of the population who are finishing high school and moving to higher education.

Cause-specific mortality estimates for Malaysia in 2013: results from a national sample verification study using medical record review and verbal autopsy

Background

Mortality indicators are essential for monitoring population health. Although Malaysia has a functional death registration system, the quality of information on causes of death still needs improvement, since approximately 30% of deaths are classified to poorly defined causes. This study was conducted to verify registered causes in a sample of deaths in 2013 and utilise the findings to estimate cause-specific mortality indicators for Malaysia in 2013.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional study involving a nationally representative sample of 14,497 deaths distributed across 19 districts. Registered causes of deaths were verified using standard medical record review protocols for hospital deaths, and locally adapted international standard verbal autopsy procedures for deaths outside hospitals. The findings were used to measure the validity and reliability of the registration data, as well as to establish plausible cause-specific mortality fractions for hospital and non-hospital deaths, which were subsequently used as the basis for estimating national cause-specific mortality indicators.

Results

The overall response rate for the study was 67%. Verified causes of 5041 hospital deaths and 3724 deaths outside hospitals were used to derive national mortality estimates for 2013 by age, sex and cause. The study was able to reclassify most of the ill-defined deaths to a specific cause. The leading causes of deaths for males were Ischaemic Heart Disease (15.4%), Cerebrovascular diseases (13.7%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (8.5%) and Road Traffic Accident (8.0%). Among females, the leading causes were Cerebrovascular diseases (18.3%), Ischaemic Heart Disease (12.7%), Lower Respiratory Infections (11.5%) and Diabetes Mellitus (7.2%).

Conclusions

Investigation of registered causes of death using verbal autopsy and medical record review yielded adequate information to enable estimation of cause-specific mortality indicators in Malaysia. Strengthening the national mortality statistics system must be made a priority as it is a core data source for policy and evaluation of the public health and healthcare sectors in Malaysia.

Contact X-ray Brachytherapy as an Adjunct to a Watch and Wait Approach is an Affordable Alternative to Standard Surgical Management of Rectal Cancer for Patients with a Partial Clinical Response to Chemoradiotherapy

AIMS

Emerging evidence suggests that contact X-ray brachytherapy (CXB) may increase the clinical complete response rate and durability when administered after standard chemoradiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer. The addition of CXB in partial responders is therefore probably cost-effective. The affordability of widening access to CXB in the UK, however, has not been evaluated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Decision analytical modelling with Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate long-term costs for the management of patients with rectal cancers who were given a CXB boost when a clinical complete response was not initially achieved following chemoradiotherapy in order to facilitate a watch and wait approach. A third-party payer (National Health Service) perspective was adopted, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out and a scenario analysis was performed to investigate the effect of the number of referral centres and number of patients treated with CXB.

RESULTS

We estimate that 818 (95% confidence interval 628-1021) patients per year are eligible for CXB as an adjunct to a watch and wait approach in England and Wales. As this management is less costly than surgical management for each individual patient, the more patients treated, the more affordable the technology. Even if as few as 125 patients are treated nationally in 15 centres, the cost of implementing this technology would be less than £4 million. If the average number of patients treated in each centre is 30, this technology would be cost saving within 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of CXB is not prohibitive according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold for implementation of new technology and may even be cost saving within 5 years compared with standard surgical management, depending on the uptake of the technology and the number of referral centres.

Validation of verbal autopsy methods using hospital medical records: a case study in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Information on causes of death (COD) is crucial for measuring the health outcomes of populations and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. In many countries such as Vietnam where the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system is dysfunctional, information on vital events will continue to rely on verbal autopsy (VA) methods. This study assesses the validity of VA methods used in Vietnam, and provides recommendations on methods for implementing VA validation studies in Vietnam.

METHODS

This validation study was conducted on a sample of 670 deaths from a recent VA study in Quang Ninh province. The study covered 116 cases from this sample, which met three inclusion criteria: a) the death occurred within 30 days of discharge after last hospitalisation, and b) medical records (MRs) for the deceased were available from respective hospitals, and c) the medical record mentioned that the patient was terminally ill at discharge. For each death, the underlying cause of death (UCOD) identified from MRs was compared to the UCOD from VA. The validity of VA diagnoses for major causes of death was measured using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).

RESULTS

The sensitivity of VA was at least 75% in identifying some leading CODs such as stroke, road traffic accidents and several site-specific cancers. However, sensitivity was less than 50% for other important causes including ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and diabetes. Overall, there was 57% agreement between UCOD from VA and MR, which increased to 76% when multiple causes from VA were compared to UCOD from MR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that VA is a valid method to ascertain UCOD in contexts such as Vietnam. Furthermore, within cultural contexts in which patients prefer to die at home instead of a healthcare facility, using the available MRs as the gold standard may be meaningful to the extent that recall bias from the interval between last hospital discharge and death can be minimized. Therefore, future studies should evaluate validity of MRs as a gold standard for VA studies in contexts similar to the Vietnamese context.