Effects of acute carotid baroreceptor stimulation on sympathetic nerve traffic in resistant and uncontrolled hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

In resistant hypertensive patients acute carotid baroreflex stimulation is associated with a blood pressure (BP) reduction, believed to be mediated by a central sympathoinhbition.The evidence for this sympathomodulatory effect is limited, however. This meta-analysis is the first to examine the sympathomodulatory effects of acute carotid baroreflex stimulation in drug-resistant and uncontrolled hypertension, based on the results of microneurographic studies. The analysis included 3 studies assessing muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) and examining 41 resistant uncontrolled hypertensives. The evaluation included assessment of the relationships between MSNA and clinic heart rate and BP changes associated with the procedure. Carotid baroreflex stimulation induced an acute reduction in clinic systolic and diastolic BP which achieved statistical significance for the former variable only [systolic BP: -19.98 mmHg (90% CI, -30.52, -9.43), P < 0.002], [diastolic BP: -5.49 mmHg (90% CI, -11.38, 0.39), P = NS]. These BP changes were accompanied by a significant MSNA reduction [-4.28 bursts/min (90% CI, -8.62, 0.06), P < 0.07], and by a significant heart rate decrease [-3.65 beats/min (90% CI, -5.49, -1.81), P < 0.001]. No significant relationship was detected beween the MSNA, systolic and diastolic BP changes induced by the procedure, this being the case also for heart rate. Our data show that the acute BP lowering responses to carotid baroreflex stimulation, although associated with a significant MSNA reduction, are not quantitatively related to the sympathomoderating effects of the procedure. This may suggest that these BP effects depend only in part on central sympathoinhibition, at least in the acute phase following the intervention.

Evaluation of adherence to pharmacological treatments by undocumented migrants with chronic diseases: a 10-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the time course of medication adherence and some of the factors involved in this process in undocumented migrants with chronic diseases.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A big non-governmental organisation in Milano, Italy, giving medical assistance to undocumented migrants.

PARTICIPANTS

1918 patients, 998 females and 920 males, with at least one chronic condition (diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), mental health disorders) seen over a period of 10 years (2011-2020). Their mean age was 49.2±13 years.

RESULTS

Adherence to medications decreased over 1 year in all patients. This was more evident during the first 2 months of treatment. Patients on only one medication were less adherent than those on more than one medication; at 6 months the percentage of patients with high adherence was 33% vs 57% (p<0.0001) for diabetes, 15% vs 46% (p<0.0001) for mental disorders and 35% vs 59% (p<0.0001) for CVDs. Patients with mental disorders had the lowest adherence: 25% at 6 months and 3% at 1 year. Mental disorders, when present as comorbidities, greatly reduced the probability of being highly adherent: risk ratio (RR) 0.72 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.91; p=0.006) at 3 months, RR 0.77, (95% CI 0.59 to 1.01; p=0.06) at 6 months, RR 0.35 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.94; p=0.04) at 1 year. This was especially evident for patients with CVDs, whose percentage of high adherents decreased to 30% (p=0.0008) at 6 months and to 3% (p=0.01) at 1 year. We also noted that highly adherent patients usually were those most frequently seen by a doctor.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to increase medication adherence of undocumented migrants with chronic diseases are necessary, particularly in the first 2 months after beginning treatment. These should be aimed at people-centred care and include more outpatient consultations. Educational interventions should especially be taken into consideration for patients on monotherapy.

Adherence to GLP1-RA and SGLT2-I affects clinical outcomes and costs in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To evaluate the impact of adherence to glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) and sodium-glucose transporter two inhibitors (SGLT2-I) on clinical outcomes and costs in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The 121,115 residents of the Lombardy Region (Italy) aged ≥40 years newly treated with metformin during 2007-2015 were followed to identify those who started therapy with GLP1-RA or SGLT2-I. Adherence to drug therapy over the first year was defined as the proportion of days covered >80%. Within each drug class, for each adherent patient, one non-adherent patient was matched for age, sex, duration, adherence to metformin treatment and propensity score. The primary clinical outcome was a composite of insulin initiation, hospitalisation for micro- and macrovascular complications and all-cause mortality after the first year of drug treatment. Costs were evaluated based on reimbursements from the national healthcare system.

RESULTS

After matching, 1182 pairs of adherent and non-adherent GLP1-RA users and 1126 pairs of adherent and non-adherent SGLT2-I users were included. In both groups, adherent patients experienced a significantly lower incidence of the primary outcome (HR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.72-0.98 for GLP1-RA and HR: 0.69, 95% CI 0.55-0.87 for SGLT2-I). A significant reduction in hospitalizations was found for adherent patients in the GLP1-RA group but not for the SGLT2-I group. Results were consistent when analyses were stratified by age and sex. While higher drug-related costs in the adherent group were counterbalanced by decreased hospitalisation costs in SGLT2-I treated patients, this was not the case for GLP1-RA.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher adherence to drug treatment with GLP1-RA and SGLT2-I during the first year of the drug intake is associated with a lower incidence of adverse clinical outcomes in a real-world setting.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Was Associated with a Change in Therapeutic Management and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients

Background: Heart failure (HF)-related mortality has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic; however, it is unclear how healthcare reassessment has contributed to the excess mortality versus SARS-CoV-2 infection itself. We aimed to assess how the pandemic affected the therapeutic management and prognosis of HF patients. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the healthcare utilization databases of the Lombardy region (Italy) to identify all newly-diagnosed HF patients from January 2018 to December 2021. Outcomes were the utilization of HF therapies (Sacubitril/Valsartan; cardiac resynchronization therapy [CRT] and/or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator [ICD]; mechanical circulatory support [MCS]; heart transplantation [HTX]) and mortality. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for outcomes associated with the pandemic. Results: 36,130 and 17,263 patients were identified in the pre-pandemic and pandemic eras, respectively. The pandemic reduced Sacubitril/Valsartan utilization (HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.91) and CRT/ICD implantation (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.78-0.92), but not MCS (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.86-1.43) and HTX (HR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.70-1.09). An increased mortality risk was observed during the pandemic (HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.15-1.23), which was attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection (HR for non-COVID-19-related mortality = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.97-1.04). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a reduction in medical and interventional therapies for HF and an increase in mortality for HF patients.

The sequential antifracturative treatment: a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Background

Subjects with a fragility fracture have an increased risk of a new fracture and should receive effective strategies to prevent new events. The medium-term to long-term strategy should be scheduled by considering the mechanisms of action in therapy and the estimated fracture risk.

Objective

A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the sequential strategy in patients with or at risk of a fragility fracture in the context of the development of the Italian Guidelines.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data sources and methods

PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were investigated up to February 2021 to update the search of a recent systematic review. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that analyzed the sequential therapy of antiresorptive, anabolic treatment, or placebo in patients with or at risk of a fragility fracture were eligible. Three authors independently extracted data and appraised the risk of bias in the included studies. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology. Effect sizes were pooled in a meta-analysis using fixed-effects models. The primary outcome was the risk of refracture, while the secondary outcome was the bone mineral density (BMD) change.

Results

In all, 17 RCTs, ranging from low to high quality, met our inclusion criteria. A significantly reduced risk of fracture was detected at (i) 12 or 24 months after the switch from romosozumab to denosumab versus placebo to denosumab; (ii) 30 months from teriparatide to bisphosphonates versus placebo to bisphosphonates; and (iii) 12 months from romosozumab to alendronate versus the only alendronate therapy (specifically for vertebral fractures). In general, at 2 years after the switch from anabolic to antiresorptive drugs, a weighted BMD was increased at the lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck site.

Conclusion

The Task Force formulated recommendations on sequential therapy, which is the first treatment with anabolic drugs or 'bone builders' in patients with very high or imminent risk of fracture.

Estimating All-Cause Deaths Averted in the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in Italy

Comparing deaths averted by vaccination campaigns is a crucial public health endeavour. Excess all-cause deaths better reflect the impact of the pandemic than COVID-19 deaths. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model to regress daily all-cause deaths on annual trend, seasonality, and environmental temperature in three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche and Sicily) from 2015 to 2019. The model was used to forecast excess deaths during the vaccinal period (December 2020-October 2022). We used the prevented fraction to estimate excess deaths observed during the vaccinal campaigns, those which would have occurred without vaccination, and those averted by the campaigns. At the end of the vaccinal period, the Lombardy region proceeded with a more intensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign than other regions (on average, 1.82 doses per resident, versus 1.67 and 1.56 in Marche and Sicily, respectively). A higher prevented fraction of all-cause deaths was consistently found in Lombardy (65% avoided deaths, as opposed to 60% and 58% in Marche and Sicily). Nevertheless, because of a lower excess mortality rate found in Lombardy compared to Marche and Sicily (12, 24 and 23 per 10,000 person-years, respectively), a lower rate of averted deaths was observed (22 avoided deaths per 10,000 person-years, versus 36 and 32 in Marche and Sicily). In Lombardy, early and full implementation of adult COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the largest reduction in all-cause deaths compared to Marche and Sicily.

Refracture following vertebral fragility fracture when bone fragility is not recognized: summarizing findings from comparator arms of randomized clinical trials

PURPOSE

Since vertebral fragility fractures (VFFs) might increase the risk of subsequent fractures, we evaluated the incidence rate and the refracture risk of subsequent vertebral and non-vertebral fragility fractures (nVFFs) in untreated patients with a previous VFF.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library up to February 2022 for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that analyzed the occurrence of subsequent fractures in untreated patients with prior VFFs. Two authors independently extracted data and appraised the risk of bias in the selected studies. Primary outcomes were subsequent VFFs, while secondary outcomes were further nVFFs. The outcome of refracture within ≥ 2 years after the index fracture was measured as (i) rate, expressed per 100 person-years (PYs), and (ii) risk, expressed in percentage.

RESULTS

Forty RCTs met our inclusion criteria, ranging from medium to high quality. Among untreated patients with prior VFFs, the rate of subsequent VFFs and nVFFs was 12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 9-16] and 6 (95% CI 5-8%) per 100 PYs, respectively. The higher the number of previous VFFs, the higher the incidence. Moreover, the risk of VFFs and nVFFs increased within 2 (16.6% and 8%) and 4 years (35.1% and 17.4%) based on the index VFF.

CONCLUSION

The highest risk of subsequent VFFs or nVFFs was already detected within 2 years following the initial VFF. Thus, prompt interventions should be designed to improve the detection and treatment of VFFs, aiming to reduce the risk of future FFs and properly implement secondary preventive measures.

Allocation of Users of Mental Health Services to Needs-Based Care Clusters: An Italian Pilot Study

In Italy, despite strong community-based mental health services, needs assessment is unsatisfactory. Using the Mental Health Clustering Tool (MHCT) we adopted a multidimensional and non-diagnosis dependent approach to assign mental health services users with similar needs to groups corresponding to resources required for effective care. We tested the MHCT in nine Departments of Mental Health in four Italian regions. After a brief training, 318 professionals assessed 12,938 cases with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, depression, bipolar disorder and personality disorder through the MHCT. 53% of cases were 40-59 years, half were females, 51% had a diagnosis of schizophrenia, 48% of cases were clinically severe. Clusters included different levels of clinical severity and diagnostic groups. The largest cluster was 11 (ongoing recurrent psychosis), with 18.9% of the sample, followed by cluster 3 (non-psychotic disorders of moderate severity). The MHCT could capture a variety of problems of people with mental disorders beyond the traditional psychiatric assessment, therefore depicting service population from a different standpoint. Following a brief training, MHCT assessment proved to be feasible. The automatic allocation of cases made the attribution to clusters easy and acceptable by professionals. To what extent clustering provide a sound base for care planning will be the matter of further research.

Does preterm birth increase the initiation of antidepressant use during the postpartum? A population-based investigation

Background

Preterm birth may affect maternal mental health. We explored the relationship between preterm birth and the risk of initiating antidepressant use during the year after birth.

Methods

We conducted a population-based investigation using regional healthcare utilization databases. The exposure considered was preterm birth. The outcome was having at least one prescription for antidepressant medications during the year after birth. We used a log-binomial regression model including terms for maternal age at birth, nationality, educational level, parity, modality of conception, modality of delivery, use of other psychotropic drugs, and diabetes to estimate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between preterm birth and the initiation of antidepressant use. In addition, the absolute risk differences (ARD) were also computed according to the timing of birth.

Results

The cohort included 727,701 deliveries between 2010 and 2020 in Lombardy, Northern Italy. Out of these, 6,522 (0.9%) women had at least one prescription for antidepressant drugs during the year after birth. Preterm births were related to a 38% increased risk of initiation of antidepressant use during the year after birth (adjusted RR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.25-1.52) for moderate to late preterm and to 83% (adjusted RR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.46-2.28) for extremely and very preterm. Excluding women with only one antidepressant prescription, the association was consistent (adjusted RR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.23-1.61 for moderate to late preterm and adjusted RR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.31-2.49 for extremely and very preterm). Also, excluding women who used other psychotropics, the association remained consistent (adjusted RR = 1.39, 95%CI: 1.26-1.54 and adjusted RR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.53-2.38, respectively for moderate to late and extremely and very preterm).

Conclusion

Women who delivered preterm may have an excess risk of initiation of antidepressant consumption during the first year after birth.

Time trends in liver-related mortality in people with and without diabetes: Results from a population based study

CONTEXT

Patients with diabetes are at increased risk of dying from liver-related events, but little is known on whether this increased risk changed in recent years.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study is to describe time trends in cause-specific liver-related mortality in people with and without diabetes from the general Italian population.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the healthcare utilization databases of Lombardy, a region of Italy that accounts for about 16% (almost ten million) of its population. Annual cause-specific mortality rates and proportionate mortality were computed among individuals with and without diabetes from 2010 to 2019. Liver-related deaths were categorized as viral, alcohol related and non-viral non-alcohol related (NVNA).

RESULTS

Liver diseases were responsible for 2% and 1% of deaths in people with and without diabetes (2019). Among patients with diabetes, the crude mortality rate for liver diseases decreased from 1.13 to 0.64 deaths per 1,000 person-years from 2010 to 2019. The largest proportion of liver-related deaths was attributable to NVNA diseases and it increased from 63% in 2010 to 68% in 2019, with a corresponding relative reduction of viral causes (from 27% to 23%). The Standardized Mortality Ratio for patients with diabetes was 3.35 (95% CI 2.96-3.76) for NVNA, 1.66 (95% CI 1.33-2.01) for viral hepatitis and 1.61 (95% CI 1.13-2.17) for alcoholic liver disease and it remained relatively stable over time. Excess mortality risk in patients with diabetes for liver-related mortality was higher than for cardiovascular mortality and cancer.

CONCLUSION

While liver-related mortality rates decreased significantly among patients with diabetes, NVNA causes comprised the majority of cases. Excess mortality for liver-related causes in patients with diabetes compared with controls remained constant in the studied period.

Dose-response association between cigarette smoking and gastric cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aims at providing an accurate and up-to-date quantification of the dose-response association between cigarette smoking and gastric cancer (GC) risk, overall and by subsite. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies on the association between cigarette smoking and GC risk published up to January 2023. We estimated pooled relative risks (RR) of GC and its subsites according to smoking status, intensity, duration, and time since quitting. Among 271 eligible articles, 205 original studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with never smokers, the pooled RR for GC was 1.53 (95% confidence interval; CI 1.44-1.62; n = 92) for current and 1.30 (95% CI 1.23-1.37; n = 82) for former smokers. The RR for current compared with never smokers was 2.08 (95% CI 1.66-2.61; n = 21) for gastric cardia and 1.48 (95% CI 1.33-1.66; n = 8) for distal stomach cancer. GC risk nonlinearly increased with smoking intensity up to 20 cigarettes/day (RR:1.69; 95% CI 1.55-1.84) and levelled thereafter. GC risk significantly increased linearly with increasing smoking duration (RR: 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.37 for 20 years) and significantly decreased linearly with increasing time since quitting (RR: 0.65; 95% CI 0.44-0.95 for 30 years since cessation). The present meta-analysis confirms that cigarette smoking is an independent risk factor for GC, particularly for gastric cardia. GC risk increases with a low number of cigarettes up to 20 cigarettes/day and increases in a dose-dependent manner with smoking duration.

Using real-world evidence in haematology

Most new drug approvals are based on data from large randomized clinical trials (RCTs). However, there are sometimes contradictory conclusions from seemingly similar trials and generalizability of conclusions from these trials is limited. These considerations explain, in part, the gap between conclusions from data of RCTs and those from registries termed real world data (RWD). Recently, real-world evidence (RWE) from RWD processed by artificial intelligence has received increasing attention. We describe the potential of using RWD in haematology concluding RWE from RWD may complement data from RCTs to support regulatory decisions.

Healthcare costs and resources utilization in children with difficult-to-control asthma treated with biologic therapies: A population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Asthma is one of the most common diseases in children, with a variable range of severity. In recent years, treatment for severe asthma has been largely improved by the availability of targeted biologic therapies. Nevertheless, studies reporting real-world data and cost-effectiveness analyses are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate, on a population-based cohort of children with asthma, the impact of the treatment with biologics on healthcare service utilization and associated costs.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from Healthcare Utilization database of Lombardy region (Italy). A cohort of 46 asthmatic children aged 6-11 in treatment with dupilumab, mepolizumab or omalizumab was identified during 2017-2021. We compared healthcare resources use between the year before ("baseline period") and the year after the treatment initiation ("follow-up period"). Average 1-year healthcare costs were also calculated.

RESULTS

Comparing the baseline with the follow-up period, the number of patients with at least one exacerbation-related hospitalization and ER access decreased by 75.0% and 85.7%, respectively. The use of biologic agents, namely omalizumab, mepolizumab and dupilumab, significantly reduced oral corticosteroids (OCS), short-acting β2-agonists and the association inhaled corticosteroids/long-acting β2-agonists use. ER admissions for non-respiratory causes were also significantly reduced, while discontinuation rate was low (6.5%). The overall costs increased, due to the costs of the biologic agents, but the hospital admission-related costs due to respiratory causes reduced significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Our real-world investigation suggests that biologic agents reduced hospital admissions for respiratory causes and use of anti-asthmatic drugs, including OCS. However, long-term healthcare sustainability still needs more in-depth assessments.

Is the long-term poor prognosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients with mental illness mediated through their poor adherence with recommended healthcare?

BACKGROUND

Compared with patients without evidence of psychiatric symptoms, those with mental disorders experience reduced adherence with recommended healthcare and poorer clinical outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate whether the worse prognosis of patients with mental disorders after experiencing acute myocardial infarction could be fully or partially mediated by their reduced adherence to recommended healthcare.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort population-based study, 103 389 residents in the Italian Lombardy Region who experienced acute myocardial infarction in 2007-19 were identified. Among them, 1549 patients with severe mental illness (SMI) were matched with five cohort members without evidence of mental disorders (references). Recommended healthcare (cardiac medicaments and selected outpatient services) was evaluated in the year after the date of index hospital discharge. The first occurrences of cardiovascular (CV) hospital admissions and any-cause-death were considered as endpoints. Mediation analysis was performed to investigate whether post-discharge use of recommended healthcare may be considered a mediator of the relationship between healthcare exposure and endpoints occurrence.

RESULTS

Compared with references, patients with SMI had lower adherence with recommended healthcare and adjusted risk excesses of 39% and 73% for CV hospitalizations and all-cause mortality. Mediation analysis showed that 4.1% and 11.3% of, respectively, CV hospitalizations and deaths occurred among psychiatric patients was mediated by their worse adherence to specific healthcare.

CONCLUSION

The reduced use of recommended outpatient healthcare by patients with SMI had only a marginal effect on their worse prognosis. Other key factors mediating the prognostic gap between patients with and without mental disorders should be investigated.

Dati regionali e loro ruolo nella pianificazione, nella programmazione e nel controllo a livello regionale

Regional administrative data may help public administrations in organizing their information, identifying problems, defining solutions and verifying results of the actions taken.

The objective of this work is to present the discussion output of the working group (GDL) “The use of regional pharmaceutical data to facilitate health planning and outcome monitoring” which was held during the Regional Pharmaceutical Policy Forum of 2023.

The GDL focused on identifying a model for planning, programming and monitoring health resources based on the data-driven approach and on the use of already existing regional administrative data, defining some gaps and developing proposals to implement this strategy. In particular, were highlighted the needs to adopt a broader perspective that considers healthcare costs as a whole (and not, specifically, oriented towards the governance of pharmaceutical assistance), to create ad-hoc training courses focused on the use of real-world data, and, similarly to some European Countries, to move towards an open access policy (accessible data) that can be useful to improve citizens’ health protection services, in compliance with the GDPR.

Probability of second live birth after first natural and medically assisted reproduction-mediated live birth: A historical cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Evidence on the role of medically assisted reproduction (MAR) in achieving the desired number of children is very limited. The aim of the current investigation was to assess the probability and the mode of conception of a second live birth according to the mode of conception of the first one.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This historical cohort study was based on administrative data from regional healthcare databases. Women hospitalized for childbirth in Lombardy between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2017 were identified. The probability of a second live birth up to 2021 was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. We calculated this probability according to the mode of conception of the first birth, and the analysis was also performed in strata of maternal age at first birth. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the association between mode of conception at first live birth and the probability of having a second live birth. Mothers were right-censored if they moved out of the region, died, or did not have a second live birth by the end of follow-up.

RESULTS

We identified 431 333 women who had their first live birth after a natural conception and 16 837 who had their first live birth after MAR. The probability of having a second live birth was 58.6% and 32.1%, respectively in the two groups (HR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.66-0.70). Considering solely women who naturally conceived their first live birth, the probability to have a second child with MAR was 1.1% and to have a second child naturally 59.3%. The corresponding values were 11.5% and 25.2% in the group of women with a first MAR-mediated live birth.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, one woman out of 10 having a first MAR-mediated live birth underwent MAR programs again. Considering women who had a first natural live birth, this proportion was drastically reduced. In the field of MAR, more attention should be given to the capacity of a couple to achieve the number of desired children.

Comparative study showed that children faced a 78% higher risk of new-onset conditions after they had COVID-19

AIM

Children have largely been unaffected by severe COVID-19 compared to adults, but data suggest that they may have experienced new conditions after developing the disease. We compared outcomes in children who had experienced COVID-19 and healthy controls.

METHODS

A retrospective nested cohort study assessed the incidence rate of new-onset conditions after COVID-19 in children aged 0-14 years. Data were retrieved from an Italian paediatric primary care database linked to Veneto Region registries. Exposed children with a positive nasopharyngeal swab were matched 1:1 with unexposed children who had tested negative. Conditional Cox regression was fitted to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the exposure and outcome associations after adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

We compared 1656 exposed and 1656 unexposed children from 1 February 2020 to 30 November 2021. The overall excess risk for new-onset conditions after COVID-19 was 78% higher in the exposed than unexposed children. We found significantly higher risks for some new conditions in exposed children, including mental health issues (aHR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.0) and neurological problems (aHR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.1).

CONCLUSION

Exposed children had a 78% higher risk of developing new conditions of interest after COVID-19 than unexposed children.

Spontaneous and induced abortions in women with a diagnosis of gestational related neoplasm: a population-based linkage study in Lombardy, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

A diagnosis of cancer during pregnancy or within one year after the end of pregnancy is a major clinical and public health issue. The current study aimed at estimating the incidence of pregnancy-associated cancer (PAC) and assessing whether the risk of abortion is increased in women diagnosed with cancer.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study used the regional healthcare utilization (HCU) databases of Lombardy, the largest region in Italy, to identify the women who delivered between 2010 and 2020. PAC were identified by oncological ICD-9-CM codes reported in the hospital discharge forms. We computed the ratio of PAC cases to the total number of pregnancies. Following a diagnosis of PAC, the prevalence ratio (PR) of abortion and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), was estimated using a log-binomial model adjusted for maternal age.

RESULTS

During the study period, 926 women who gave birth (1.29 cases per 1000 births) and 341 women who had an abortion (1.52 cases per 1000 abortions) were diagnosed with PAC. Regardless of the outcome of pregnancy, the risk of PAC increased with increasing age. The rate of PAC was initially lower among births, but it came very close to the rate of PAC among abortions in the last two calendar years. The proportion of abortions among women with PAC gradually decreased from 27.7% in 2010-2012 to 18.5% in 2019-2020 (p-value < 0.001). Overall, a diagnosis of PAC was related to an approximately 10% increased risk of abortion (PR = 1.11, 95%CI:1.01-1.22). However, no association was observed in 2019-2020 (PR = 0.87, 95%CI:0.65-1.17). Considering only diagnoses made during the first trimester of pregnancy, the risk of abortion was about 2.5 times higher (PR = 2.53, 95%CI:2.05-3.11) and the risk of induced abortion was almost 4 times higher (PR = 3.71, 95%CI:2.82-4.90).

CONCLUSION

In this population the risk of abortion was about 10% higher in women with PAC than in women without PAC. However, this association tended to decrease in more recent calendar periods. This trend seemed to be influenced more by spontaneous than by induced abortions.

A systematic review on the performance of fracture risk assessment tools: FRAX, DeFRA, FRA-HS

PURPOSE

Preventing fragility fractures by treating osteoporosis may reduce disability and mortality worldwide. Algorithms combining clinical risk factors with bone mineral density have been developed to better estimate fracture risk and possible treatment thresholds. This systematic review supported panel members of the Italian Fragility Fracture Guidelines in recommending the use of best-performant tool. The clinical performance of the three most used fracture risk assessment tools (DeFRA, FRAX, and FRA-HS) was assessed in at-risk patients.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched till December 2020 for studies investigating risk assessment tools for predicting major osteoporotic or hip fractures in patients with osteoporosis or fragility fractures. Sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), and areas under the curve (AUCs) were evaluated for all tools at different thresholds. Quality assessment was performed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2; certainty of evidence (CoE) was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

RESULTS

Forty-three articles were considered (40, 1, and 2 for FRAX, FRA-HS, and DeFRA, respectively), with the CoE ranging from very low to high quality. A reduction of Sn and increase of Sp for major osteoporotic fractures were observed among women and the entire population with cut-off augmentation. No significant differences were found on comparing FRAX to DeFRA in women (AUC 59-88% vs. 74%) and diabetics (AUC 73% vs. 89%). FRAX demonstrated non-significantly better discriminatory power than FRA-HS among men.

CONCLUSION

The task force formulated appropriate recommendations on the use of any fracture risk assessment tools in patients with or at risk of fragility fractures, since no statistically significant differences emerged across different prediction tools.

Paricalcitol and Extended-Release Calcifediol for Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism in Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease: Results From a Network Meta-Analysis

CONTEXT

Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) is a complication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) affecting mineral and bone metabolism and characterized by excessive parathyroid hormone (PTH) production and parathyroid hyperplasia.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this analysis was to compare the efficacy and adverse effects of extended-release calcifediol (ERC) and paricalcitol (PCT) by assessing their effect on the biomarkers PTH, calcium, and phosphate in patients with non-dialysis CKD (ND-CKD).

METHODS

A systematic literature research was performed in PubMed to identify randomized control trials (RCTs). Quality assessment was done with the GRADE method. The effects of ERC vs PCT were compared using random effects in a frequentist setting.

RESULTS

Nine RCTs comprising 1426 patients were included in the analyses. The analyses were performed on 2 overlapping networks, due to nonreporting of outcomes in some of the included studies. No head-to-head trials were identified. No statistically significant differences in PTH reduction were found between PCT and ERC. Treatment with PCT showed statistically significant increases in calcium compared with ERC (0.2 mg/dL increase; 95% CI, -0.37 to -0.05 mg/dL). No differences in effects on phosphate were observed.

CONCLUSION

This network meta-analysis showed that ERC is comparable in lowering PTH levels vs PCT. ERC displayed avoidance of potentially clinically relevant increases in serum calcium, offering an effective and well-tolerated treatment option for the management of SHPT in patients with ND-CKD.

Antidepressant continuation and adherence in pregnancy, and risk of antenatal hospitalization for unipolar major depressive and/or anxiety disorders

BACKGROUND

Knowledge about the effectiveness of antidepressants in pregnancy is limited. We aimed to evaluate the association of antidepressant continuation in pregnancy and adherence with the risk of antenatal hospitalization for depression/anxiety.

METHODS

In a population-based study based on the healthcare databases of the Lombardy region, Italy (2010-2020), we included 17,033 live-birth pregnancies within 16,091 women with antidepressant use before pregnancy. Antidepressant exposure was classified as continued in pregnancy versus discontinued proximal to pregnancy. Outcome measure was antenatal hospitalization for depression/anxiety. Propensity score matching analysis was performed to control for measured confounding. Stratification by pre-pregnancy antidepressant adherence based on the proportion of days covered (PDC) with antidepressants served to address confounding by disease severity. We applied 60 days lag-time for antidepressant exposure to minimize the risk of protopathic bias.

RESULTS

There were 362 (2.1 %) antenatal hospitalizations for depression/anxiety. Among the matched pairs, the cumulative incidence was 3.5 (continued antidepressant) versus 2.1 (discontinued antidepressant) per 1000 person-months, yielding a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.76 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.34-2.33)). The HR declined to the null (1.02, 95 % CI: 0.62-1.69) in the stratified analysis of pregnancies with moderate-high adherence pre-pregnancy. Moderate-high adherence in pregnancy was associated with 85 % greater risk of the antenatal outcome, but the HR decreased with the 60 days lag-time (HR: 1.40, 95 % CI: 0.79-2.50).

LIMITATIONS

Lack of information regarding antidepressant dosage.

CONCLUSION

We found no difference in risk for antenatal hospitalization for depression/anxiety with antidepressant continuation or higher adherence in pregnancy, relative to discontinuation or lower adherence.

Assessing the quality of the care offer for people with personality disorders in Italy: the QUADIM project. A multicentre research based on the database of use of Mental Health services

BACKGROUND

Italy can be viewed as a laboratory to assess the quality of mental healthcare delivered in a community-oriented system, especially for severe mental disorders, such as personality disorders. Although initiatives based on clinical indicators for assessing the quality of mental healthcare have been developed by transnational-organisations, there is still no widespread practice of measuring the quality of care pathways delivered to patients with severe mental disorders in a community-oriented system, especially using administrative healthcare databases. The aim of the study is to evaluate the quality of care delivered to patients with personality disorders taken-in-care by mental health services of four Italian regions (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio, Sicily).

METHODS

A set of thirty-three clinical indicators, concerning accessibility, appropriateness, continuity, and safety of care, was implemented using regional healthcare utilization databases, containing data on mental health treatments and diagnosis, hospital admissions, outpatient interventions and exams and drug prescriptions.

RESULTS

31,688 prevalent patients with personality disorders treated in 2015 were identified, of whom 2,331 newly taken-in-care. One-in-10 patients received a standardized assessment, the treatment discontinuity affected half of the cases. 12.7% of prevalent patients received at least one hospitalization, 10.6% in the newly taken-in-care cohort. 6-out-of-10 patients had contact with community-services within 14 days from hospital discharge. Access to psychotherapy and psychoeducational treatments was low and delivered with a low intensity. The median of psychosocial interventions per person-year was 19.1 and 9.4, respectively, in prevalent and newly taken-in-care cases. Nearly 50% of patients received pharmacological treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare utilization databases were used to systematically evaluate and assess service delivery across regional mental health systems; suggesting that in Italy the public mental health services provide to individuals with personality disorders suboptimal treatment paths.

Using big data and Population Health Management to assess care and costs for patients with severe mental disorders and move toward a value-based payment system

BACKGROUND

Mental health (MH) care often exhibits uneven quality and poor coordination of physical and MH needs, especially for patients with severe mental disorders. This study tests a Population Health Management (PHM) approach to identify patients with severe mental disorders using administrative health databases in Italy and evaluate, manage and monitor care pathways and costs. A second objective explores the feasibility of changing the payment system from fee-for-service to a value-based system (e.g., increased care integration, bundled payments) to introduce performance measures and guide improvement in outcomes.

METHODS

Since diagnosis alone may poorly predict condition severity and needs, we conducted a retrospective observational study on a 9,019-patient cohort assessed in 2018 (30.5% of 29,570 patients with SMDs from three Italian regions) using the Mental Health Clustering Tool (MHCT), developed in the United Kingdom, to stratify patients according to severity and needs, providing a basis for payment for episode of care. Patients were linked (blinded) with retrospective (2014-2017) physical and MH databases to map resource use, care pathways, and assess costs globally and by cluster. Two regions (3,525 patients) provided data for generalized linear model regression to explore determinants of cost variation among clusters and regions.

RESULTS

Substantial heterogeneity was observed in care organization, resource use and costs across and within 3 Italian regions and 20 clusters. Annual mean costs per patient across regions was €3,925, ranging from €3,101 to €6,501 in the three regions. Some 70% of total costs were for MH services and medications, 37% incurred in dedicated mental health facilities, 33% for MH services and medications noted in physical healthcare databases, and 30% for other conditions. Regression analysis showed comorbidities, resident psychiatric services, and consumption noted in physical health databases have considerable impact on total costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The current MH care system in Italy lacks evidence of coordination of physical and mental health and matching services to patient needs, with high variation between regions. Using available assessment tools and administrative data, implementation of an episodic approach to funding MH could account for differences in disease phase and physical health for patients with SMDs and introduce performance measurement to improve outcomes and provide oversight.

Adherence and related cardiovascular outcomes to single pill vs. separate pill administration of antihypertensive triple-combination therapy

OBJECTIVE

To compare adherence to antihypertensive treatment between patients prescribed a three-drug single-pill combination (SPC) of perindopril/amlodipine/indapamide (P/A/I) vs. the combination of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), a calcium-channel blocker (CCB), and a diuretic (D) as a two-drug SPC plus a third drug given separately.

METHODS

Using the healthcare utilization database of the Lombardy Region (Italy), the 28 210 patients, aged at least 40 years, who were prescribed P/A/I SPC during 2015-2018 were identified and the date of the first prescription was defined as the index date. For each patient prescribed the SPC, a comparator who started ACEI/CCB/D treatment as a two-pill combination was considered. Adherence to the triple combination was assessed over the year after the index date as the proportion of the follow-up days covered by prescription (PDC). Patients who had a PDC >75% were defined as highly adherent to drug therapy. Log-binomial regression models were fitted to estimate the risk ratio of treatment adherence in relation to the drug treatment strategy.

RESULTS

About 59 and 25% of SPC and two-pill combination users showed high adherence, respectively. Compared with patients under a three-drug two-pill combination, those who were treated with the three-drug SPC had a higher propensity to be highly adherent to the triple combination (2.38, 95% confidence interval: 2.32-2.44). This was the case regardless of the sex, age, comorbidities, and number of co-treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

In a real-life setting, patients under three-drug SPC exhibited more frequently a high adherence to antihypertensive treatment than those prescribed a three-drug two-pill combination.

The modest impact of assisted reproductive technology on the second birth: insights from a population-based study in Lombardy, Northern Italy

BACKGROUND

In the field of assisted reproductive technology (ART), family rate is a neglected but emerging issue. The aim of the study was to investigate the epidemiological impact of ART on the second birth during the period 2007-2020 in Lombardy, Northern Italy.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study using administrative data from regional healthcare databases of Lombardy including first and second births occurred from 2007 to 2020. The proportion of deliveries after ART was calculated separately among first and second births. The probability of undergoing ART to achieve second birth compared to first one was estimated computing odds ratio (OR), crude and adjusted for maternal age, education, and nationality. We also assessed changes with age and calendar period.

RESULTS

We obtained a cohort including 553,190 first births and 317,976 second births. The proportion of ART babies among first and second births was 4.3% and 1.0% respectively (p < 0.001). The probability of undergoing ART to achieve second birth compared to first one, adjusted for age, education, and nationality, was 0.14 (95%CI: 0.13-0.15). The proportion of deliveries after ART increased with maternal age and along the calendar period but remained always markedly higher among first births rather than among second births.

CONCLUSION

ART played a significantly lower role in the determinism of the conception of a second birth in comparison to the conception of a first one.

Improved prediction of 5-year mortality by updating the chronic related score for risk profiling in the general population: lessons from the italian region of Lombardy

Objective

The aim of this study was to improve the performance of the Chronic Related Score (CReSc) in predicting mortality and healthcare needs in the general population.

Methods

A population-based study was conducted, including all beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service of Lombardy, Italy, aged 18 years or older in January 2015. Each individual was classified as exposed or unexposed to 69 candidate predictors measured before baseline, updated to include four mental health disorders. Conditions independently associated with 5-year mortality were selected using the Cox regression model on a random sample including 5.4 million citizens. The predictive performance of the obtained CReSc-2.0 was assessed on the remaining 2.7 million citizens through discrimination and calibration.

Results

A total of 35 conditions significantly contributed to the CReSc-2.0, among which Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, dementia, heart failure, active neoplasm, and kidney dialysis contributed the most to the score. Approximately 36% of citizens suffered from at least one condition. CReSc-2.0 discrimination performance was remarkable, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83. Trends toward increasing short-term (1-year) and long-term (5-year) rates of mortality, hospital admission, hospital stay, and healthcare costs were observed as CReSc-2.0 increased.

Conclusion

CReSC-2.0 represents an improved tool for stratifying populations according to healthcare needs.

The integrated structure of care: evidence for the efficacy of models of clinical governance in the prevention of fragility fractures after recent sentinel fracture after the age of 50 years

Randomized clinical trials and observational studies on the implementation of clinical governance models, in patients who had experienced a fragility fracture, were examined. Literature was systematically reviewed and summarized by a panel of experts who formulated recommendations for the Italian guideline.

PURPOSE

After experiencing a fracture, several strategies may be adopted to reduce the risk of recurrent fragility fractures and associated morbidity and mortality. Clinical governance models, such as the fracture liaison service (FLS), have been introduced for the identification, treatment, and monitoring of patients with secondary fragility fractures. A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the association between multidisciplinary care systems and several outcomes in patients with a fragility fracture in the context of the development of the Italian Guidelines.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were investigated up to December 2020 to update the search of the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational studies that analyzed clinical governance models in patients who had experienced a fragility fracture were eligible. Three authors independently extracted data and appraised the risk of bias in the included studies. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology. Effect sizes were pooled in a meta-analysis using random-effects models. Primary outcomes were bone mineral density values, antiosteoporotic therapy initiation, adherence to antiosteoporotic medications, subsequent fracture, and mortality risk, while secondary outcomes were quality of life and physical performance.

RESULTS

Fifteen RCTs and 62 observational studies, ranging from very low to low quality for bone mineral density values, antiosteoporotic initiation, adherence to antiosteoporotic medications, subsequent fracture, mortality, met our inclusion criteria. The implementation of clinical governance models compared to their pre-implementation or standard care/non-attenders significantly improved BMD testing rate, and increased the number of patients who initiated antiosteoporotic therapy and enhanced their adherence to the medications. Moreover, the treatment by clinical governance model respect to standard care/non-attenders significantly reduced the risk of subsequent fracture and mortality. The integrated structure of care enhanced the quality of life and physical function among patients with fragility fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our findings, clinicians should promote the management of patients experiencing a fragility fracture through structured and integrated models of care. The task force has formulated appropriate recommendations on the implementation of multidisciplinary care systems in patients with, or at risk of, fragility fractures.

Capturing the variety of clinical pathways in patients with schizophrenic disorders through state sequences analysis

BACKGROUND

Care pathways are increasingly being used to enhance the quality of care and optimize the use of resources for health care. Nevertheless, recommendations regarding the sequence of care are mostly based on consensus-based decisions as there is a lack of evidence on effective treatment sequences. In a real-world setting, classical statistical tools were insufficient to consider a phenomenon with such high variability adequately and have to be integrated with novel data mining techniques suitable for identifying patterns in complex data structures. Data-driven techniques can potentially support empirically identifying effective care sequences by extracting them from data collected routinely. The purpose of this study is to perform a state sequence analysis (SSA) to identify different patterns of treatment and to asses whether sequence analysis may be a useful tool for profiling patients according to the treatment pattern.

METHODS

The clinical application that motivated the study of this method concerns the mental health field. In fact, the care pathways of patients affected by severe mental disorders often do not correspond to the standards required by the guidelines in this field. In particular, we analyzed patients with schizophrenic disorders (i.e., schizophrenia, schizotypal or delusional disorders) using administrative data from 2015 to 2018 from Lombardy Region. This methodology considers the patient's therapeutic path as a conceptual unit, composed of a succession of different states, and we show how SSA can be used to describe longitudinal patient status.

RESULTS

We define the states to be the weekly coverage of different treatments (psychiatric visits, psychosocial interventions, and anti-psychotic drugs), and we use the longest common subsequences (dis)similarity measure to compare and cluster the sequences. We obtained three different clusters with very different patterns of treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

This kind of information, such as common patterns of care that allowed us to risk profile patients, can provide health policymakers an opportunity to plan optimum and individualized patient care by allocating appropriate resources, analyzing trends in the health status of a population, and finding the risk factors that can be leveraged to prevent the decline of mental health status at the population level.

Coping with COVID: risk and resilience factors for mental health in a German representative panel study

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic might affect mental health. Data from population-representative panel surveys with multiple waves including pre-COVID data investigating risk and protective factors are still rare.

METHODS

In a stratified random sample of the German household population (n = 6684), we conducted survey-weighted multiple linear regressions to determine the association of various psychological risk and protective factors assessed between 2015 and 2020 with changes in psychological distress [(PD; measured via Patient Health Questionnaire for Depression and Anxiety (PHQ-4)] from pre-pandemic (average of 2016 and 2019) to peri-pandemic (both 2020 and 2021) time points. Control analyses on PD change between two pre-pandemic time points (2016 and 2019) were conducted. Regularized regressions were computed to inform on which factors were statistically most influential in the multicollinear setting.

RESULTS

PHQ-4 scores in 2020 (M = 2.45) and 2021 (M = 2.21) were elevated compared to 2019 (M = 1.79). Several risk factors (catastrophizing, neuroticism, and asking for instrumental support) and protective factors (perceived stress recovery, positive reappraisal, and optimism) were identified for the peri-pandemic outcomes. Control analyses revealed that in pre-pandemic times, neuroticism and optimism were predominantly related to PD changes. Regularized regression mostly confirmed the results and highlighted perceived stress recovery as most consistent influential protective factor across peri-pandemic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several psychological risk and protective factors related to PD outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. A comparison of pre-pandemic data stresses the relevance of longitudinal assessments to potentially reconcile contradictory findings. Implications and suggestions for targeted prevention and intervention programs during highly stressful times such as pandemics are discussed.

Medication holidays in osteoporosis: evidence-based recommendations from the Italian guidelines on 'Diagnosis, risk stratification, and continuity of care of fragility fractures' based on a systematic literature review

Background

Noncommunicable, chronic diseases need pharmacological interventions for long periods or even throughout life. The temporary or permanent cessation of medication for a specific period, known as a 'medication holiday,' should be planned by healthcare professionals.

Objectives

We evaluated the association between continuity (adherence or persistence) of treatment and several outcomes in patients with fragility fractures in the context of the development of the Italian Guidelines.

Design

Systematic review.

Data Sources and Methods

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to November 2020 for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational studies that analyzed medication holidays in patients with fragility fracture. Three authors independently extracted data and appraised the risk of bias of the included studies. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology. Effect sizes were pooled in a meta-analysis using random effects models. Primary outcomes were refracture and quality of life; secondary outcomes were mortality and treatment-related adverse events.

Results

Six RCTs and nine observational studies met our inclusion criteria, ranging from very low to moderate quality. The adherence to antiosteoporotic drugs was associated with a lower risk of nonvertebral fracture [relative risk (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.87; three studies] than nonadherence, whereas no difference was detected in the health-related quality of life. A reduction in refracture risk was observed when continuous treatment was compared to discontinuous therapy (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25-0.98; three studies). A lower mortality rate was detected for the adherence and persistence measures, while no significant differences were noted in gastrointestinal side effects in individuals undergoing continuous versus discontinuous treatment.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that clinicians should promote adherence and persistence to antiosteoporotic treatment in patients with fragility fractures unless serious adverse effects occur.

The quality of mental health care for people with bipolar disorders in the Italian mental health system: the QUADIM project

BACKGROUND

The assessment of the quality of care pathways delivered to people with severe mental disorders in a community-based system remains uncommon, especially using healthcare utilization databases. The aim of the study was to evaluate the quality of care provided to people with bipolar disorders taken-in-care by mental health services of four Italian areas (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio, province of Palermo).

METHODS

Thirty-six quality indicators were implemented to assess quality of mental health care for patients with bipolar disorders, according to three dimensions (accessibility and appropriateness, continuity, and safety). Data were retrieved from healthcare utilization (HCU) databases, which contain data on mental health treatments, hospital admissions, outpatient interventions, laboratory tests and drug prescriptions.

RESULTS

29,242 prevalent and 752 incident cases taken-in-care by regional mental health services with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder in 2015 were identified. Age-standardized treated prevalence rate was 16.2 (per 10,000 adult residents) and treated incidence rate 1.3. In the year of evaluation, 97% of prevalent cases had ≥ 1 outpatient/day-care contacts and 88% had ≥ 1 psychiatric visits. The median of outpatient/day-care contacts was 9.3 interventions per-year. Psychoeducation was provided to 3.5% of patients and psychotherapy to 11.5%, with low intensity. 63% prevalent cases were treated with antipsychotics, 71.5% with mood stabilizers, 46.6% with antidepressants. Appropriate laboratory tests were conducted in less than one-third of prevalent patients with a prescription of antipsychotics; three quarters of those with a prescription of lithium. Lower proportions were observed for incident patients. In prevalent patients, the Standardized Mortality Ratio was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.26-1.44): 1.18 (1.07-1.29) in females, 1.60 (1.45-1.77) in males. Heterogeneity across areas was considerable in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a meaningful treatment gap in bipolar disorders in Italian mental health services, suggesting that the fact they are entirely community-based does not assure sufficient coverage by itself. Continuity of contacts was sufficient, but intensity of care was low, suggesting the risk of suboptimal treatment and low effectiveness. Care pathways were monitored and evaluated using administrative healthcare databases, adding evidence that such data may contribute to assess the quality of clinical pathways in mental health.

Are we equally at risk of changing smoking behavior during a public health crisis? Impact of educational level on smoking from the TEMPO cohort

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic as a public health crisis has led to a significant increase in mental health difficulties. Smoking is strongly associated with mental health conditions, which is why the pandemic might have influenced the otherwise decline in smoking rates. Persons belonging to socioeconomically disadvantaged groups may be particularly affected, both because the pandemic has exacerbated existing social inequalities and because this group was more likely to smoke before the pandemic. We examined smoking prevalence in a French cohort study, focusing on differences between educational attainment. In addition, we examined the association between interpersonal changes in tobacco consumption and educational level from 2018 to 2021.

METHODS

Using four assessments of smoking status available from 2009 to 2021, we estimated smoking prevalence over time, stratified by highest educational level in the TEMPO cohort and the difference was tested using chi² test. We studied the association between interpersonal change in smoking status between 2018 and 2021 and educational attainment among 148 smokers, using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Smoking prevalence was higher among those with low education. The difference between the two groups increased from 2020 to 2021 (4.8-9.4%, p < 0.001). Smokers with high educational level were more likely to decrease their tobacco consumption from 2018 to 2021 compared to low educated smokers (aOR = 2.72 [1.26;5.89]).

CONCLUSION

Current findings showed a widening of the social inequality gap in relation to smoking rates, underscoring the increased vulnerability of persons with low educational level to smoking and the likely inadequate focus on social inequalities in relation to tobacco control policies during the pandemic.

Natural and vaccine-induced immunity are equivalent for the protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection

OBJECTIVES

To compare the long-term cumulative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with natural and vaccine-induced immunity.

METHODS

Retrospective population-based cohort study based on registry of COVID-19 vaccinations and SARS-CoV-2 infections among 9.1 million citizens of Lombardy, Italy, eligible for vaccination on 27th December 2020. Those who developed SARS-CoV-2 infection from 24th May to 14th September 2021, provided they did not yet receive the COVID-19 vaccine when infection was confirmed, and those who received the second mRNA vaccine dose, provided they had not yet developed the infection, were selected to be 1:1 matched for sex, age and index date. The latter corresponded to 90 days after confirmed infection or 14 days after vaccine administration. A control cohort including citizens who, on the index date, had neither developed infection nor received vaccination was also selected. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for comparing the cumulative incidence of new SARS-CoV-2 infection from the index date until 22nd June 2022.

RESULTS

Overall, 19,418 1:1:1 risk-sets were included. After 9 months of follow-up, the cumulative risk of new SARS-CoV-2 infection was 21.8%, 22.0%, and 25.9%, respectively, among exposed to natural immunity, vaccine-induced immunity and unexposed.

CONCLUSIONS

Equivalent potential for protecting against new SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed.

Web-based surveillance of respiratory infection outbreaks: retrospective analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic waves using Google Trends

Introduction

Large-scale diagnostic testing has been proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019. Electronic resources may provide better insight into the early detection of epidemics. We aimed to retrospectively explore whether the Google search volume has been useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared to the swab-based surveillance system.

Methods

The Google Trends website was used by applying the research to three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, and Sicily), covering 16 million Italian citizens. An autoregressive-moving-average model was fitted, and residual charts were plotted to detect outliers in weekly searches of five keywords. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure Positive Predictive Values and False Negative Rates in anticipating the epidemic wave occurrence.

Results

Signals from "fever," "cough," and "sore throat" showed better performance than those from "loss of smell" and "loss of taste." More than 80% of true epidemic waves were detected early by the occurrence of at least an outlier signal in Lombardy, although this implies a 20% false alarm signals. Performance was poorer for Sicily and Marche.

Conclusion

Monitoring the volume of Google searches can be a valuable tool for early detection of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high access to home internet. The inclusion of web-based syndromic keywords is promising as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and perhaps other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Small-area deprivation index does not improve the capability of multisource comorbidity score in mortality prediction

Background

The stratification of the general population according to health needs allows to provide better-tailored services. A simple score called Multisource Comorbidity Score (MCS) has been developed and validated for predicting several outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the ability of MCS in predicting 1-year mortality improves by incorporating socioeconomic data (as measured by a deprivation index).

Methods

Beneficiaries of the Italian National Health Service who in the index year (2018) were aged 50-85 years and were resident in the Sicily region for at least 2 years were identified. For each individual, the MCS was calculated according to his/her clinical profile, and the deprivation index of the census unit level of the individual's residence was collected. Frailty models were fitted to assess the relationship between the indexes (MCS and deprivation index) and 1-year mortality. Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion statistics were used to compare the goodness of fit of the model that included only MCS and the model that also contained the deprivation index. The models were further compared by means of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

The final cohort included 1,062,221 individuals, with a mortality rate of 15.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years. Both MCS and deprivation index were positively associated with mortality.The goodness of fit statistics of the two models were very similar. For MCS only and MCS plus deprivation index models, Akaike information criterion were 17,013 and 17,038, respectively, whereas Bayesian information criterion were 16,997 and 17,000, respectively. The AUC values were 0.78 for both models.

Conclusion

The present study shows that socioeconomic features as measured by the deprivation index did not improve the capability of MCS in predicting 1-year risk of death. Future studies are needed to investigate other sources of data to enhance the risk stratification of populations.

Characterizing non-communicable disease trends in undocumented migrants over a period of 10 years in Italy

Undocumented migrants represent a large part of the population in Countries of the European Union (EU) such as Italy. Their health burden is not fully understood and likely to be related mainly to chronic conditions. Information on their health needs and conditions may help to target public health interventions but is not found in national public health databases. We conducted a retrospective observational study of non-communicable disease (NCD) burden and management in undocumented migrants receiving medical care from Opera San Francesco, a non-governmental organization (NGO) in Milan, Italy. We analyzed the health records of 53,683 clients over a period of 10 years and collected data on demographics, diagnosis and pharmacological treatments prescribed. 17,292 (32.2%) of clients had one or more NCD diagnosis. The proportion of clients suffering from at least one NCD increased from 2011 to 2020. The risk of having an NCD was lower in men than women (RR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.86-0.89), increased with age (p for trend < 0.001) and changed with ethnicity. African and Asian migrants had a lower risk than Europeans of cardiovascular diseases (RR 0.62 CI 0.58-0.67, RR 0.85 CI 0.78-0.92 respectively) and mental health disorders (RR 0.66 CI 0.61-0.71, RR 0.60 CI 0.54-0.67 respectively), while the risk was higher in Latin American people (RR 1.07 CI 1.01-1.13, RR 1.18 CI 1.11-1.25). There was a higher risk of diabetes in those from Asia and Latin America (RR 1.68 CI 1.44-1.97, RR 1.39 CI 1.21-1.60). Overall, migrants from Latin America had the greatest risk of chronic disease and this was true for diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and mental health disorders. Undocumented migrants demonstrate a significantly different health burden of NCDs, which varies with ethnicity and background. Data from NGOs providing them with medical assistance should be included in structuring public health interventions aimed at the prevention and treatment of NCDs. This could help to better allocate resources and address their health needs.

Assessment and Monitoring of the Quality of Clinical Pathways in Patients with Depressive Disorders: Results from a Multiregional Italian Investigation on Mental Health Care Quality (the QUADIM Project)

Ensuring adequate quality of care to patients with severe mental disorders remains a challenge. The implementation of clinical indicators aimed at assessing the quality of health care pathways delivered is crucial for the improvement of mental health services (MHS). This study aims to evaluate the quality of care delivered to patients who are taken-into-care with depressive disorders by MHS. Thirty-four clinical indicators concerning accessibility, appropriateness, continuity, and safety were estimated using health care utilization databases from four Italian regions (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio, Sicily). A total of 78,924 prevalent patients treated for depressive disorders in 2015 were identified, of whom 15,234 were newly engaged by MHS. During the year of follow-up, access to psychotherapeutic interventions was low, while the intensity was adequate; 5.1% of prevalent patients received at least one hospitalization in a psychiatric ward (GHPW), and 3.3% in the cohort of newly engaged in services. Five-out-of-10 patients had contact with community services within 14 days after GHPW discharge, but less than half of patients were persistent to antidepressant drug therapy. Furthermore, prevalent patients showed an excess of mortality compared to the general population (SMR = 1.35; IC 95%: 1.26-1.44). In conclusion, the quality of health care is not delivered in accordance with evidence-based mental health standards. Evaluation of health interventions are fundamental strategies for improving the quality and equity of health care.

Sex-Related Differences in Outpatient Healthcare of Acute Coronary Syndrome: Evidence from an Italian Real-World Investigation

At the time of first acute coronary syndrome (ACS) hospital admission, women are generally older and have more comorbidities than men, which may explain differences in their short-term prognosis. However, few studies have focused on differences in the out-of-hospital management of men and women. This study investigated (i) the risk of clinical outcomes, (ii) the use of out-of-hospital healthcare and (iii) the effects of clinical recommendations on outcomes in men vs. women. A total of 90,779 residents of the Lombardy Region (Italy) were hospitalized for ACS from 2011 to 2015. Exposure to prescribed drugs, diagnostic procedures, laboratory tests, and cardiac rehabilitation in the first year after ACS hospitalization were recorded. To evaluate whether sex can modify the relationship between clinical recommendations and outcomes, adjusted Cox models were separately fitted for men and women. Women were exposed to fewer treatments, required fewer outpatient services than men and had a lower risk of long-term clinical events. The stratified analysis showed an association between adherence to clinical recommendations and a lower risk of clinical outcomes in both sexes. Since improved adherence to clinical recommendations seems to be beneficial for both sexes, tight out-of-hospital healthcare control should be recommended to achieve favourable clinical benefits.

Prevalence and Factors Associated With Intertwin Birth Weight Discordance Among Same-Sex Twins in Lombardy, Northern Italy

This population-based cohort study investigated the prevalence, potential risk factors, and consequences of birth weight discordance (BWD) among same-sex twins. We retrieved data from the automated system of healthcare utilization databases of Lombardy Region, Northern Italy (2007-2021). BWD was defined as 30% or more disparity in birth weights between the larger and the smaller twin. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of BWD in deliveries with same-sex twins. In addition, the distribution of several neonatal outcomes was assessed overall and according to BWD level (i.e., ≤20%, 21-29, and ≥30%). Finally, a stratified analysis by BWD was performed to assess the relationship between assisted reproductive technologies (ART) and neonatal outcomes. We identified 11,096 same-sex twin deliveries; 556 (5.0%) pairs of twins were affected by BWD. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that maternal age ≥35 years (OR 1.26, 95% CI [1.05,5.51]), low level of education (OR 1.34, 95% CI [1.05, 1.70]), and ART (OR 1.16, 95% CI [0.94, 1.44], almost significant due to the low power) were independent risk factors for BWD in same-sex twins. Conversely, parity (OR 0.73, 95% CI [0.60, 0.89]) was inversely related. All the adverse outcomes observed were more common among BWD pairs than non-BWD ones. Instead, a protective effect of ART was observed for most neonatal outcomes considered among BWD twins. Our results suggest that conception after ART increases the risk of developing a high disparity between the weights of the two twins. However, the presence of BWD may complicate twin pregnancies, compromising neonatal outcomes, regardless of the modality of conception.

Impact of the First and Second Lockdown for COVID-19 Pandemic on Preterm Birth, Low Birth Weight, Stillbirth, Mode of Labor, and of Delivery in Lombardy, Italy

We investigated the effect of lockdown measures implemented in Lombardy on selected obstetric and perinatal outcomes. Births that occurred during the two lockdowns imposed (i.e., the first from 16 March to 2 June 2020 and the second from 3 November 2020 to 5 April 2021) and the comparison periods (i.e., the first from 16 March to 2 June 2018 and the second from 3 November 2018 to 5 April 2019) were identified using regional healthcare databases. The distribution of births according to the selected outcomes was computed and the Chi-square test was used for testing differences in the periods compared. During the two lockdowns, we observed a lower proportion of low birth weight, from 6.8% in the comparison period to 6.1% in the first lockdown (p = 0.019), and from 6.5% to 6.1% in the second one (p = 0.109). The proportion of preterm births decreased from 6.8% to 6.3% in the first lockdown (p = 0.097), and from 6.2% to 6.0% in the second one (p = 0.172). No differences in stillbirth rate emerged for both lockdowns. Induction of labor was more frequent during both lockdowns, from 28.6% to 32.7% in the first (p < 0.0001), and from 29.9% to 33.2% in the second one (p < 0.0001). Cesarean section was less frequent during the second lockdown.

Adherence to antidiabetic drug therapy and reduction of fatal events in elderly frail patients

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the protective effect of oral antidiabetic drugs in a large cohort of elderly patients with type 2 diabetes differing for age, clinical status, and life expectancy, including patients with multiple comorbidities and short survival.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was carried out by including the cohort of 188,983 patients from Lombardy (Italy), aged ≥ 65 years, who received ≥ 3 consecutive prescriptions of antidiabetic agents (mostly metformin and other older conventional agents) during 2012. Cases were the 49,201 patients who died for any cause during follow-up (up to 2018). A control was randomly selected for each case. Adherence to drug therapy was measured by considering the proportion of days of the follow-up covered by the drug prescriptions. Conditional logistic regression was used to model the risk of outcome associated with adherence to antidiabetic drugs. The analysis was stratified according to four categories of the clinical status (good, intermediate, poor, and very poor) differing for life expectancy.

RESULTS

There was a steep increase in comorbidities and a marked reduction of the 6-year survival from the very good to the very poor (or frail) clinical category. Progressive increase in adherence to treatment was associated with a progressive decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality in all clinical categories and at all ages (65-74, 75-84 and ≥ 85 years) except for the frail patient subgroup aged ≥ 85 years. The mortality reduction from lowest to highest adherence level showed a tendency to be lower in frail patients compared to the other categories. Similar although less consistent results were obtained for cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly diabetic patients, increased adherence to antidiabetic drugs is associated with a reduction in the risk of mortality regardless of the patients' clinical status and age, with the exception of very old patients (age ≥ 85 years) in the very poor or frail clinical category. However, in the frail patient category the benefit of treatment appears to be less than in patients in good clinical conditions.

Effectiveness and economic impact of Dupilumab in asthma: a population-based cohort study

RATIONALE

Severe asthma is burdened by relevant socio-economic and clinical impact. Randomized controlled trials on Dupilumab showed efficacy and a good safety profile, but post-market studies are needed.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the impact of Dupilumab on (i) the use of anti-asthmatic drugs, including oral corticosteroids (OCS), (ii) the rates of asthma exacerbation-related hospital admissions, and (iii) the healthcare costs in patients with asthma.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from Healthcare Utilization database of Lombardy region (Italy). We compared healthcare resources use between the 6 months after Dupilumab initiation ("post-intervention period") and (i) the 6 months before Dupilumab initiation ("wash-out period") and (ii) the corresponding 6 months of the prior year ("pre-intervention period").

MAIN RESULTS

In a cohort of 176 patients, Dupilumab significantly reduced anti-asthmatic drugs use (including OCS and short-acting β2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids (ICS)/long-acting β2-agonists and ICS alone) when comparing the "pre-intervention" to the "post-intervention" period. When considering hospital admissions, we observed a not statistically or marginally significant reduction between both periods before Dupilumab and the post-intervention period. Six-months discontinuation rate was 8%. Overall healthcare costs had a tenfold increase between the "pre-intervention" and "post-intervention" period, which was mainly led by the biologic drug cost. Conversely, expenditures connected to hospital admissions did not change.

CONCLUSIONS

Our real-world investigation suggests that Dupilumab reduced anti-asthmatic drugs use, including OCS, in comparison to a corresponding period in the prior year. However, long-term healthcare sustainability remains an open issue.

Effects of Renal Denervation on Sympathetic Nerve Traffic and Correlates in Drug-Resistant and Uncontrolled Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Whether and to what extent the reported blood pressure (BP) lowering effects of renal denervation (RDN) are associated with a central sympathoinhibition is controversial. We examined this issue by performing a meta-analysis of the microneurographic studies evaluating the BP and muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) responses to RDN in drug-resistant or uncontrolled hypertension (RHT).

METHODS

This analysis comprised 11 studies including a total of >400 RHT patients undergoing RDN and were followed up for 6 months. Evaluation was extended to the relationships of MSNA with clinic heart rate and BP changes associated with RDN.

RESULTS

MSNA showed a significant reduction after RDN (-4.78 bursts/100 heart beats; P<0.04), which was also accompanied by a significant systolic (-11.45 mm Hg; P<0.002) and diastolic (-5.24 mm Hg; P=0.0001) BP decrease. No significant quantitative relationship was found between MSNA and systolic (r=-0.96, P=0.19) or diastolic BP (r=-0.97, P=0.23) responses to RDN. This was also the case for clinic heart rate (r=0.53, P=0.78, respectively), whose post RDN values were not significant different from the pre-RDN ones. More than 10 renal nerves ablations were found to be needed for obtaining a significant sympathoinhibition.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis, the first ever done on the MSNA responses to RDN, shows that in a consistent number of RHT patients RDN is associated with a significant, although modest, central sympathoinhibition, which appears to be unrelated to the BP lowering effects of the procedure. Thus factors other than the central sympathetic outflow inhibition may concur at the BP lowering effects of RDN.

[Extended release calcifediol and paricalcitol in the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism: a network meta-analysis of indirect comparison]

Introduction: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) is a common and major complication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among patients on dialysis and in patients with CKD stage G3 to G5. SHPT in CKD is caused by disturbances in metabolic parameters. Paricalcitol (PCT), other active vitamin D analogous (doxercalciferol and alfacalcidol), and active vitamin D (calcitriol) have been commonly used to treat SHPT in non-dialysis CKD (ND-CKD) for several years. However, recent studies indicate that these therapies adversely increase serum calcium, phosphate, and fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) levels. Extended release calcifediol (ERC) has been developed as an alternative treatment for SHPT in ND-CKD. The present meta-analysis compares the effect of ERC against PCT in the control of PTH and calcium levels. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted, according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to identify studies for inclusion in the Network Meta-Analysis (NMA). Results: 18 publications were eligible for inclusion in the network meta-analysis and 9 articles were included in the final NMA. The estimated PTH reduction from PCT (-59.5 pg/ml) was larger than the PTH reduction from ERC (-45.3 pg/ml), but the difference in treatment effects did not show statistical significance. Treatment with PCT caused statistically significant increases in calcium vs. placebo (increase: 0.31 mg/dl), while the marginal increase in calcium from treatment with ERC (increase: 0.10 mg/dl) did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: The evidence suggests that both PCT and ERC are effective in reducing levels of PTH, whereas calcium levels tended to increase from treatment with PCT. Therefore, ERC may be an equally effective, but more tolerable treatment alternative to PCT.

Trends in the incidence of major birth defects after assisted reproductive technologies in Lombardy Region, Northern Italy

PURPOSE

The incidence of birth defects is increased in children born after assisted reproductive technologies (ART). However, changes in ART over time could influence this incidence. To investigate this issue, we present the frequency and trends of birth defects in ART and natural pregnancies in Lombardy, Northern Italy, during the period 2014-2020.

METHODS

This is a population-based study using automated system of healthcare utilization (HCU) databases. ART pregnancies included only those obtained with conventional IVF or ICSI. After identifying the total number of deliveries, the rate of newborns with birth defects was compared between natural and ART pregnancies. A logistic regression model was used to calculate the adjusted odd ratio (OR). Analyses were repeated for every calendar year.

RESULTS

Overall, 508,421 deliveries were identified, of which 14,067 (2.8%) were achieved after IVF-ICSI. A decreasing trend in birth defects over time was highlighted. The adjusted OR dropped from 1.40 (95%CI: 1.03-1.91) in 2014 to 0.92 (95%CI: 0.69-1.22) in 2020. During the study period, a significant reduction in multiple pregnancy and in the ratio of ICSI to conventional IVF was also observed, explaining at least in part the positive trend observed for birth defects.

CONCLUSION

The increased risk of birth defects in children born after IVF-ICSI is not steady over time. A decline of this risk emerged in our region. Policy changes in ART may explain this beneficial effect.

A Cohort Study on Diabetic Undocumented Migrants in Italy: Can Charitable Organizations Contribute to Higher Adherence?

The increasing presence of documented and undocumented migrants increases the commitment of the Italian National Health Service to their health needs, following its founding principle of equity. In particular, chronic diseases, such as diabetes, represent a crucial area where patients' health is affected by their adherence to care pathways, for which the recent literature has reported alarming low levels. In the case of migrants, obstacles to adherence, such as language or organizational barriers, could be overcome thanks also to charitable organizations providing healthcare services. In this study, we aimed to compare the adherence among documented and undocumented migrants who received healthcare services in Milan, Italy, either from the National Health Service (NHS) or from a charitable organization. We identified a cohort of newly taken into care diabetic patients composed of two groups: (i) documented migrants that attend the NHS; and (ii) undocumented migrants that attend a charity. Information was tracked by merging two datasets: the regional healthcare information system of Lombardy, and a unique dataset that collects data on specialistic visits and pharmaceutical prescriptions for all people visiting one of the most prominent charitable organizations in Italy. The annual diabetologist visit was used as the measure of adherence. The probability of being adherent was compared among the two groups by using a multivariate log-binomial regression model, considering a set of personal characteristics that may impact health behaviors. The cohort comprised 6429 subjects. The percentage of adherence was 52% among the documented migrants, and 74% among the undocumented. Regression results confirmed this pattern: undocumented patients have an increased probability of being adherent by 1.19 times (95% CI: 1.12 to 1.26) compared to documented ones. Our study revealed the potentiality of charitable organizations in guaranteeing continuity of care to undocumented migrants. We argue that this mechanism would benefit from central coordination by the government.

Detecting early signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in 2020 in small areas by monitoring healthcare utilisation databases: first lessons learned from the Italian Alert_CoV project

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale diagnostic testing and contact tracing have proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of infections.AimTo develop and retrospectively evaluate a system identifying aberrations in the use of selected healthcare services to timely detect COVID-19 outbreaks in small areas.MethodsData were retrieved from the healthcare utilisation (HCU) databases of the Lombardy Region, Italy. We identified eight services suggesting a respiratory infection (syndromic proxies). Count time series reporting the weekly occurrence of each proxy from 2015 to 2020 were generated considering small administrative areas (i.e. census units of Cremona and Mantua provinces). The ability to uncover aberrations during 2020 was tested for two algorithms: the improved Farrington algorithm and the generalised likelihood ratio-based procedure for negative binomial counts. To evaluate these algorithms' performance in detecting outbreaks earlier than the standard surveillance, confirmed outbreaks, defined according to the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, were used as reference. Performances were assessed separately for the first and second semester of the year. Proxies positively impacting performance were identified.ResultsWe estimated that 70% of outbreaks could be detected early using the proposed approach, with a corresponding false positive rate of ca 20%. Performance did not substantially differ either between algorithms or semesters. The best proxies included emergency calls for respiratory or infectious disease causes and emergency room visits.ConclusionImplementing HCU-based monitoring systems in small areas deserves further investigations as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Executive summary: Italian guidelines for diagnosis, risk stratification, and care continuity of fragility fractures 2021

Background

Fragility fractures are a major public health concern owing to their worrying and growing burden and their onerous burden upon health systems. There is now a substantial body of evidence that individuals who have already suffered a fragility fracture are at a greater risk for further fractures, thus suggesting the potential for secondary prevention in this field.

Purpose

This guideline aims to provide evidence-based recommendations for recognizing, stratifying the risk, treating, and managing patients with fragility fracture. This is a summary version of the full Italian guideline.

Methods

The Italian Fragility Fracture Team appointed by the Italian National Health Institute was employed from January 2020 to February 2021 to (i) identify previously published systematic reviews and guidelines on the field, (ii) formulate relevant clinical questions, (iii) systematically review literature and summarize evidence, (iv) draft the Evidence to Decision Framework, and (v) formulate recommendations.

Results

Overall, 351 original papers were included in our systematic review to answer six clinical questions. Recommendations were categorized into issues concerning (i) frailty recognition as the cause of bone fracture, (ii) (re)fracture risk assessment, for prioritizing interventions, and (iii) treatment and management of patients experiencing fragility fractures. Six recommendations were overall developed, of which one, four, and one were of high, moderate, and low quality, respectively.

Conclusions

The current guidelines provide guidance to support individualized management of patients experiencing non-traumatic bone fracture to benefit from secondary prevention of (re)fracture. Although our recommendations are based on the best available evidence, questionable quality evidence is still available for some relevant clinical questions, so future research has the potential to reduce uncertainty about the effects of intervention and the reasons for doing so at a reasonable cost.