Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients

Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Author Correction: Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22025-2

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

Asymmetric responses of ecosystem productivity to rainfall anomalies vary inversely with mean annual rainfall over the conterminous United States

The CONterminous United States (CONUS) presents a large range of climate conditions and biomes where terrestrial primary productivity and its inter-annual variability are controlled regionally by rainfall and/or temperature. Here, the response of ecosystem productivity to those climate variables was investigated across different biomes from 2010 to 2018 using three climate datasets of precipitation, air temperature or drought severity, combined with several proxies of ecosystem productivity: a remote sensing product of aboveground biomass, an net primary productivity (NPP) remote sensing product, an NPP model-based product and four gross primary productivity products. We used an asymmetry index (AI) where positive AI indicates a greater increase of ecosystem productivity in wet years compared to the decline in dry years, and negative AI indicates a greater decline of ecosystem productivity in dry years compared to the increase in wet years. We found consistent spatial patterns of AI across the CONUS for the different products, with negative asymmetries over the Great Plains and positive asymmetries over the southwestern CONUS. Shrubs and, to a lesser extent, evergreen forests show a persistent positive asymmetry, whilst (natural) grasslands appear to have transitioned from positive to negative anomalies during the last decade. The general tendency of dominant negative asymmetry response for ecosystem productivity across the CONUS appears to be influenced by the negative asymmetry of precipitation anomalies. AI was found to be a function of mean rainfall: more positive AIs were found in dry areas where plants are adapted to drought and take advantage of rainfall pulses, and more negative AIs were found in wet areas, with a threshold delineating the two regimes corresponding to a mean annual rainfall of 200-400 mm/year.

Accounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought

As climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21^st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought-induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought-impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21^st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.

Quantifying shorebird habitat in managed wetlands by modeling shallow water depth dynamics

Over 50% of Western Hemisphere shorebird species are in decline due to ongoing habitat loss and degradation. In some regions of high wetland loss, shorebirds are heavily reliant on a core network of remaining human-managed wetlands during migration journeys in the spring and fall. While most refuges have been designed and managed to match the habitat needs of waterfowl, shorebirds typically require much shallower water (<10 cm deep). Traditional static habitat modeling approaches at relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution are insufficient to capture dynamic changes within this narrow water depth range. Our objectives were to (1) develop a method to quantify shallow water habitat distributions in inland non-tidal wetlands, and (2) to assess how water management practices affect the amount of shorebird habitat in Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge Complex. We produced water depth distributions and modeled optimal habitat (<10 cm deep) within 23 managed wetlands using high-resolution topography and fixed-point water depth records. We also demonstrated that habitat availability, specifically suitable water depth ranges, can be tracked from satellite imagery and high-resolution topography. We found that wetlands with lower topographic roughness may have a higher potential to provide shorebird habitat and that strategically reducing water levels could increase habitat extent. Over 50% of the wetlands measured provided optimal habitat across <10% of their area at the peak of migration in early April, and most provided a brief duration of shallow water habitat. Reducing water volumes could increase the proportion of optimal habitat by 1-1,678% (mean = 294%) compared to actual volumes measured at peak spring migration in 2016. For wetlands with a high habitat potential, beginning wetland drawdown earlier and extending drawdown time could dramatically improve habitat conditions at the peak of shorebird migration. Our approach can be adapted to track dynamic hydrologic changes at broader spatial scales as additional high-resolution topographic (e.g., lidar, drone imagery photogrammetry) and optical remote sensing data (e.g., planet imagery, drone photography) become available.

Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought

From 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa, and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species' diverse mortality patterns using postdrought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modelling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were inconsistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of the degree of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of spring and summer whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance) and shallower rooting depths were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.

Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

Satellite measurements of surface water offer promise for understanding wetland habitat availability at broad spatial and temporal scales; reliable habitat is crucial for the persistence of migratory shorebirds that depend on wetland networks. We analyzed water extent dynamics within wetland habitats at a globally important shorebird stopover site for a 1983-2015 Landsat time series, and evaluated the effect of climate on water extent. A range of methods can detect open water from imagery, including supervised classification approaches and thresholds for spectral bands and indices. Thresholds provide a time advantage; however, there is no universally superior index, nor single best threshold for all instances. We used random forest to model the presence or absence of water from >6200 reference pixels, and derived an optimal water probability threshold for our study area using receiver operating characteristic curves. An optimized mid-infrared (1.5-1.7 μm) threshold identified open water in the Sacramento Valley of California at 30-m resolution with an average of 90% producer's accuracy, comparable to approaches that require more intensive user input. SLC-off Landsat 7 imagery was integrated by applying a customized interpolation that mapped water in missing data gaps with 99% user's accuracy. On average we detected open water on ~26000 ha (~3% of the study area) in early April at the peak of shorebird migration, while water extent increased five-fold after the migration rush. Over the last three decades, late March water extent declined by ~1300 ha per year, primarily due to changes in the extent and timing of agricultural flood-irrigation. Water within shorebird habitats was significantly associated with an index of water availability at the peak of migration. Our approach can be used to optimize thresholds for time series analysis and near-real-time mapping in other regions, and requires only marginally more time than generating a confusion matrix.

Global satellite monitoring of climate-induced vegetation disturbances

Terrestrial disturbances are accelerating globally, but their full impact is not quantified because we lack an adequate monitoring system. Remote sensing offers a means to quantify the frequency and extent of disturbances globally. Here, we review the current application of remote sensing to this problem and offer a framework for more systematic analysis in the future. We recommend that any proposed monitoring system should not only detect disturbances, but also be able to: identify the proximate cause(s); integrate a range of spatial scales; and, ideally, incorporate process models to explain the observed patterns and predicted trends in the future. Significant remaining challenges are tied to the ecology of disturbances. To meet these challenges, more effort is required to incorporate ecological principles and understanding into the assessments of disturbance worldwide.

Plant and animal endemism in the eastern Andean slope: challenges to conservation

BACKGROUND

The Andes-Amazon basin of Peru and Bolivia is one of the most data-poor, biologically rich, and rapidly changing areas of the world. Conservation scientists agree that this area hosts extremely high endemism, perhaps the highest in the world, yet we know little about the geographic distributions of these species and ecosystems within country boundaries. To address this need, we have developed conservation data on endemic biodiversity (~800 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and plants) and terrestrial ecological systems (~90; groups of vegetation communities resulting from the action of ecological processes, substrates, and/or environmental gradients) with which we conduct a fine scale conservation prioritization across the Amazon watershed of Peru and Bolivia. We modelled the geographic distributions of 435 endemic plants and all 347 endemic vertebrate species, from existing museum and herbaria specimens at a regional conservation practitioner's scale (1:250,000-1:1,000,000), based on the best available tools and geographic data. We mapped ecological systems, endemic species concentrations, and irreplaceable areas with respect to national level protected areas.

RESULTS

We found that sizes of endemic species distributions ranged widely (< 20 km2 to > 200,000 km2) across the study area. Bird and mammal endemic species richness was greatest within a narrow 2500-3000 m elevation band along the length of the Andes Mountains. Endemic amphibian richness was highest at 1000-1500 m elevation and concentrated in the southern half of the study area. Geographical distribution of plant endemism was highly taxon-dependent. Irreplaceable areas, defined as locations with the highest number of species with narrow ranges, overlapped slightly with areas of high endemism, yet generally exhibited unique patterns across the study area by species group. We found that many endemic species and ecological systems are lacking national-level protection; a third of endemic species have distributions completely outside of national protected areas. Protected areas cover only 20% of areas of high endemism and 20% of irreplaceable areas. Almost 40% of the 91 ecological systems are in serious need of protection (= < 2% of their ranges protected).

CONCLUSIONS

We identify for the first time, areas of high endemic species concentrations and high irreplaceability that have only been roughly indicated in the past at the continental scale. We conclude that new complementary protected areas are needed to safeguard these endemics and ecosystems. An expansion in protected areas will be challenged by geographically isolated micro-endemics, varied endemic patterns among taxa, increasing deforestation, resource extraction, and changes in climate. Relying on pre-existing collections, publically accessible datasets and tools, this working framework is exportable to other regions plagued by incomplete conservation data.

Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports

Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006–2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R² = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003–2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

Epstein-Barr virus immediate-early protein BRLF1 interacts with CBP, promoting enhanced BRLF1 transactivation

The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) immediate-early protein BRLF1 is a transcriptional activator that mediates the switch from latent to lytic viral replication. Many transcriptional activators function, in part, due to an interaction with histone acetylases, such as CREB-binding protein (CBP). Here we demonstrate that BRLF1 interacts with the amino and carboxy termini of CBP and that multiple domains of the BRLF1 protein are necessary for this interaction. Furthermore, we show that the interaction between BRLF1 and CBP is important for BRLF1-induced activation of the early lytic EBV gene SM in Raji cells.

The Epstein-Barr virus protein BRLF1 activates S phase entry through E2F1 induction

The Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) immediate-early protein BRLF1 is one of two transactivators which mediate the switch from latent to lytic replication in EBV-infected cells. DNA viruses often modulate the function of critical cell cycle proteins to maximize the efficiency of virus replication. Here we have examined the effect of BRLF1 on cell cycle progression. A replication-deficient adenovirus expressing BRLF1 (AdBRLF1) was used to infect normal human fibroblasts and various epithelial cell lines. BRLF1 expression induced S phase entry in contact-inhibited fibroblasts and in the human osteosarcoma cell line U-2 OS. AdBRLF1 infection produced a dramatic increase in the level of E2F1 but not E2F4. In contrast, the levels of Rb, p107, and p130 were decreased in AdBRLF1-infected cells. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays confirmed an increased level of free E2F1 in the AdBRLF1-infected human fibroblasts. Consistent with the previously described effect of E2F1, AdBRLF1-infected fibroblasts had increased levels of p53 and p21 and died by apoptosis. BRLF1-induced activation of E2F1 may be required for efficient EBV lytic replication, since at least one critical viral replication gene (the viral DNA polymerase) is activated by E2F (C. Liu, N. D. Sista, and J. S. Pagano, J. Virol. 70:2545-2555, 1996).

Replication activity of JC virus large T antigen phosphorylation and zinc finger domain mutants

The replication potential of the human polyomavirus JC virus (JCV) relative to that of the related monkey virus SV40 is limited, in part, by differences in the multifunctional T antigen (T Ag). Earlier genetic analyses of the SV40 T protein indicated that specific phosphorylation sites and a zinc finger motif are involved in the regulation of viral replication. The JCV and SV40 T Ags differ with respect to sequences encoding these functional domains, and in the present study mutational analysis of the JCV protein was conducted to assess the role that unconserved residues might play in the restricted lytic behavior of JCV. Amino acids Asn316 and His317 in the zinc finger domain and Thr664 and Glu666 in the carboxy-terminal phosphorylation domain were mutated to either an SV40-like residue or an alanine. Each of the mutant JCV genomes replicated with wild type efficiency suggesting that, unlike the case for SV40 T Ag, these amino acids are not critical to the regulation of viral replication. On the other hand, mutation of amino acid Thr125 within the amino-terminal phosphorylation domain abolished JCV DNA replication and viability. This site is conserved in the SV40 T Ag, and previous results have revealed that phosphorylation of this residue (Thr124) is required for T Ag replication function.

Sequences within the early and late promoters of archetype JC virus restrict viral DNA replication and infectivity

Two forms of JC virus (JCV) have been isolated from its human host, an archetype found in kidney tissue and urine of nonimmunocompromised individuals and a rearranged type detected in lymphocytes and brain tissue of patients with and without progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. To investigate the hypothesis that alterations to the archetype transcriptional control region yield rearranged forms of the virus exhibiting new tissue tropic and pathogenic potentials, attempts were made to propagate archetype JCV in human renal and glial cell cultures. Although rearranged forms of JCV multiplied in these cells, archetype JCV failed to do so. Through the use of chimeric and mutant viral genomes, and a cell line that constitutively expresses viral T protein, we demonstrated that archetype's inactivity relative to that of rearranged forms was due to differences in the promoter-enhancer and not in the protein coding regions or origin of DNA replication. Additional analyses revealed that the absence of a large tandem duplication and the presence of a 23- and a 66-base pair sequence in the archetype transcriptional control region were responsible for this restricted lytic behavior. We discuss the possibility that deletion and duplication events within the archetype promoter-enhancer might yield more active viral variants via the loss of a negative, or the creation of a positive, transcriptional control signal(s).

Biochemical characterization and localization of JC virus large T antigen phosphorylation domains

Large T antigen (T Ag), the major regulatory protein produced by the primate polyomaviruses, is a multifunctional phosphoprotein expressed early in the viral life cycle. T Ag performs many functions essential to viral DNA replication, and studies with SV40 T Ag indicate that the regulation of these functions is modulated, in part, by the phosphorylation status of this oncoprotein. In this study, we demonstrate that JC virus (JCV) T Ag obtained from lytically infected and transformed cells is phosphorylated at serine and threonine residues. Analysis of JCV T Ag via two-dimensional tryptic peptide mapping generates 14 phosphopeptides. Additional mapping studies of intact, hybrid, mutant, and truncated forms of JCV T Ag have aided the localization of phosphorylation sites to the N- or C-terminal region of the protein; both serine and threonine residues are modified at each terminus. The data indicate that, unlike the corresponding regulatory phosphorylation site Ser677 in SV40, Thr664 is not phosphorylated in JCV T Ag. The phosphorylation sites utilized for JCV T Ag, and the regulatory role of these sites, are predicted to contribute to the unique biology of this human virus.