Reference values for metal(loid)s concentrations in the urine samples of healthy Iranian adults: Results from the first nationally representative human biomonitoring study

BACKGROUND

This study measured the concentrations of arsenic (As), aluminum (Al), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) in the urine samples of the Iranian adult population.

METHODS

This nationally representative study was conducted on 490 participants in six provinces of Iran who were selected based on the clustering method. Participants included healthy Iranian adults aged above 25 years without a history of illness and non-smokers. Fasting urine sampling, body composition, and demographic measurements were performed for each participant. Urine samples were analyzed by acid digesting method using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). The analysis included descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression using Python programming language.

RESULTS

The geometrical mean (with corresponding reference values, µg/l) concentrations of metal(loid)s in urine for women, men, and both were 198.2 (625.3), 163.5 (486.1), and 192.5(570.4) for Al, 15.6(51.7), 28.8(71.1), and 21.9 (61.64) for As, 18.5(55.2), 20.7(56.5), and 19.22(55.75) for Pb, 17.9(57.6), 17.9 (53.9), and 17.9(56) for Ni, 13.95(47.5), 20.3(62.2) and 16(51.6) for Cr, 3.5(12.2), 2.9(11.5), and 3.3(12) for Hg, 0.74(2.7), 0.95 (3.6), and 0.81(3.1) for Cd. There was a direct relationship between the concentration of metal(loid)s and demographic indicators and body composition (P<0.05). Moreover, there was a direct relationship between the concentration of As, Cr, Hg, Ni, and Pb with age and wealth index (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The concentrations found could be used as the reference range for As, Al, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, and Pb for human biomonitoring studies on the Iranian adult population.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Unveiling the lead exposure attributed burden in Iran from 1990 to 2019 through the lens of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

This study aimed to investigate the estimated burden attributed to lead exposure (LE), at the national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2019 in Iran. The burden attributed to LE was determined through the estimation of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) using the comparative risk assessment method of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study presenting as age-standardized per 100,000 person year (PY) with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). Furthermore, the burden of each disease were recorded independently. Eventually, the age-standardized YLLs, DALYs, deaths and YLDs rates attributed to LE demonstrated a decrease of 50.7%, 48.9%, 38.0%, and 36.4%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The most important causes of LE burden are divided into two acute and chronic categories: acute, mainly causes mental disorders (DALYs rate of 36.0 in 2019), and chronic, results in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (DALYs rate of 391.8) and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) (DALYs rate of 26.6), with CVDs bearing the most significant burden. At the sub-national level, a decrease in burden was evident in most provinces; moreover, low and low-middle SDI provinces born the highest burden. The burden increased mainly by ageing and was higher in males than females. It was concluded that although the overall decrease in the burden; still it is high, especially in low and low-middle SDI provinces, in advanced ages and in males. Among IDID, CKDs and CVDs that are the most important causes of LE-attributed burden in Iran; CVDs bear the highest burden.

Multiple cardiovascular risk factor care in 55 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally-representative, individual-level data from 280,783 adults

The prevalence of multiple age-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is high among individuals living in low- and middle-income countries. We described receipt of healthcare services for and management of hypertension and diabetes among individuals living with these conditions using individual-level data from 55 nationally representative population-based surveys (2009-2019) with measured blood pressure (BP) and diabetes biomarker. We restricted our analysis to non-pregnant individuals aged 40-69 years and defined three mutually exclusive groups (i.e., hypertension only, diabetes only, and both hypertension-diabetes) to compare individuals living with concurrent hypertension and diabetes to individuals with each condition separately. We included 90,086 individuals who lived with hypertension only, 11,975 with diabetes only, and 16,228 with hypertension-diabetes. We estimated the percentage of individuals who were aware of their diagnosis, used pharmacological therapy, or achieved appropriate hypertension and diabetes management. A greater percentage of individuals with hypertension-diabetes were fully diagnosed (64.1% [95% CI: 61.8-66.4]) than those with hypertension only (47.4% [45.3-49.6]) or diabetes only (46.7% [44.1-49.2]). Among the hypertension-diabetes group, pharmacological treatment was higher for individual conditions (38.3% [95% CI: 34.8-41.8] using antihypertensive and 42.3% [95% CI: 39.4-45.2] using glucose-lowering medications) than for both conditions jointly (24.6% [95% CI: 22.1-27.2]).The percentage of individuals achieving appropriate management was highest in the hypertension group (17.6% [16.4-18.8]), followed by diabetes (13.3% [10.7-15.8]) and hypertension-diabetes (6.6% [5.4-7.8]) groups. Although health systems in LMICs are reaching a larger share of individuals living with both hypertension and diabetes than those living with just one of these conditions, only seven percent achieved both BP and blood glucose treatment targets. Implementation of cost-effective population-level interventions that shift clinical care paradigm from disease-specific to comprehensive CVD care are urgently needed for all three groups, especially for those with multiple CVD risk factors.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Global, Regional, and National Quality of Care Index (QCI) of Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

Gastric Cancer (GC)is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. We aimed to compare the quality of care of GC at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2017 in different age, sex, and socio-demographic groups using the quality-of-care index.

MATERIAL

METHOD: We used Mortality to Incidence Ratio, DALY to Prevalence Ratio, YLL to YLD Ratio, and Prevalence to Incidence Ratio, that all indicate the quality of care. Then, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), these values are combined. A new index called QCI (Quality of Care Index), which indicates quality, is introduced to compare the quality of care in different countries in 1990 and 2017. Scores were calculated and scaled 0-100, with higher scores indicating better status.

RESULTS

The global QCI of GC in 1990 and 2017 was 35.7 and 66.7, respectively. The QCI index is 89.6 and 16.4 in high and low SDI countries, respectively. In 2017, Japan had the highest QCI with a 100 score. Japan was followed by South Korea, Singapore, Australia, and the United States with 99.5, 98.4, 98.3, and 90.0. On the other hand, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Lesotho, and Afghanistan with 11.6, 13.0, 13.1, 13.5, and 13.7 had the worst QCI, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The quality of care of GC has increased worldwide from 1990 to 2017. Also, higher SDI was associated with more quality of care. We recommend conducting more screening and therapeutic programs for early detection and to improve gastric cancer treatment in developing countries.

Global, regional, and national quality of care index of cervical and ovarian cancer: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Cervical cancer is the most preventable and ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecological cancer. However, in the world, there are disparities in health care performances resulting in differences in the burden of these cancers. The objective of this study was to compare the health-system quality of care and inequities for these cancers using the Quality of Care Index (QCI).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The 1990-2019 data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) was analyzed to extract rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Life Lost (YLL), and Years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLD) of cervical and ovarian cancer. Four indices were developed as a proxy for the quality of care using the above-mentioned rates. Thereafter, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was applied to construct the Quality of Care Index (QCI) as a summary measure of the developed indices.

RESULTS

The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 1990 to 2019, whereas the incidence of ovarian cancer increased between these years. However, the mortality rate of both cancers decreased in this interval. The global age-standardized QCI for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer were 43.1 and 48.5 in 1990 and increased to 58.5 and 58.4 in 2019, respectively. QCI for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer generally decreased with aging, and different age groups had inequitable QCIs. Higher-income countries generally had higher QCIs for both cancers, but exceptions were also observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Uncovering disparities in cervical and ovarian cancer care across locations, Socio-Demographic Index levels, and age groups necessitate urgent improvements in healthcare systems for equitable care. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and prompt future research to explore root causes and effective strategies for narrowing these gaps.

Drivers' behavior confronting fixed and point-to-point speed enforcement camera: agent-based simulation and translation to crash relative risk change

Utilizing a novel microsimulation approach, this study evaluates the impact of fixed and average point-to-point Speed Enforcement Cameras (SEC) on driving safety. Using the SUMO software, agent-based models for a 6-km highway without exits or obstacles were created. Telematics data from 93,160 trips were used to determine the desired free-flow speed. A total of 13,860 scenarios were simulated with 30 random seeds. The ratio of unsafe driving (RUD) is the spatial division of the total distance travelled at an unsafe speed by the total travel distance. The study compared different SEC implementations under different road traffic and community behaviours using the Power Model and calculated crash risk changes. Results showed that adding one or two fixed SECs reduced RUD by 0.20% (0.18-0.23) and 0.57% (0.54-0.59), respectively. However, average SECs significantly lowered RUD by 10.97% (10.95-10.99). Furthermore, a 1% increase in telematics enforcement decreased RUD by 0.22% (0.21-0.22). Point-to-point cameras effectively reduced crash risk in all implementation scenarios, with reductions ranging from - 3.44 to - 11.27%, pointing to their superiority as speed enforcement across various scenarios. Our cost-conscious and replicable approach can provide interim assessments of SEC effectiveness, even in low-income countries.

National and subnational burden of leukemia and its risk factors, 1990-2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Hematologic malignancies have a great essential role in cancer global burden. Leukemia which two major subtypes based on the onset, is one of the common subtypes of this malignancy.

METHOD

For the GBD 2019 study, cancer registry data and vital registration system were used to estimate leukemia mortality. The Meta-Regression-Bayesian Regularized Trimmed (MR-BRT), Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) and Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (ST-GPR) were used to model our data and estimate each quantity of interest. Mortality to incidence ratios (MIR) were used to generate incidence and survival from mortality rate. Prevalence and survival were used to generate years lived with disability (YLDs). Age-specific mortality and life expectancy at the same age were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). The sum of YLLs and YLDs generates DALYs.

RESULTS

The total national incidence of leukemia increased from 6092 (UI 95%: 3803-8507) in 1990 to 6767 (4646-7890) new cases in 2019. However, leukemia age-standardized incidence ratio(ASIR) decreased from 11.6 (8-14.8) to 8.9 (6.2-10.3) new cases per 100,000 in this exact period. At the national level, deaths from leukemia increased 1.5-fold between 1990 and 2019, from 3287 (2284-4201) to 4424 (3137-5030), whereas the age-standardized death rate(ASDR) decreased from 8.3 (6.1-9.8) in 1990 to 6 (4.3-6.8) per 100,000 in 2019. In the study period, total leukemia DALYs decreased 12.2% and reached 162850 (110681-188806), in 2019. The age-standardized DALYs decreased 36.7% from 324.3 (224.8-413.4) in 1990 to 205.3 (140.3-237.8) in 2019. ASDR, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs rate to high BMI was increasing while smoking and occupational exposure to benzene and formaldehyde were decreasing in the study period.

CONCLUSION

This study provided a better understanding of leukemia burden and to reduce controversies of leukemia across Iran. The leukemia status alteration of the country, is trackable.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

The effect of Real-Time feedback and incentives on speeding behaviors using Telematics: A randomized controlled trial

Speeding behaviour of drivers is highly correlated to their tangible consequence. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of telematics-based feedback and financial incentives in reducing speeding behaviors through a randomized controlled field trial. This randomized controlled trial included four groups of (1) control, (2) information-only, (3) gain-of-reward, and (4) loss-of-reward. While drivers of the control group were unobtrusively monitored using telematics devices, drivers of the information-only group received real-time, weekly, and monthly feedback via text message. In both groups with financial incentives, in addition to receiving feedback, drivers could receive payments at the end of each month based on observed speeding. The primary outcome was the distance traveled at speeds more than 10% (S10 + ) above the posted speed limit as a proportion of the total traveled distance. A total of 397 male taxi drivers consented to participate in the study. After the stratified randomization, the mean age of the participant was 46.0 (95% Confidence Interval: 43.8 to 48.2), 47.0 (44.7 to 49.3), 46.1 (43.7 to 48.5), and 48.8 (46.5 to 51.1) years for the control, the information-only, the gain-of-reward, and the loss-of-reward groups, respectively. The mean S10 + rate per 100 km was 0.9 (0.5 to 1.2) for the control, 0.8 (0.4 to 1.1) for the information-only, 0.7 (0.3 to 1.1) for the gain-of-reward, and 1.3 (0.4 to 2.2) for the loss-of-reward group at the start of intervention. During the intervention phase, the loss-of-reward group with 0.6 (0.5 to 0.7) had the lowest mean of S10 + rate, followed by the gain-of-reward group with 0.8 (0.7 to 0.8). The loss-of-reward and gain-of-reward groups were the most influenced groups by the intervention, with 38.0% (13.2 to 55.7; p-value < 0.01) and 29.4% (2.0 to 49.2; p-value = 0.04) less S10 + rate than the control group, respectively. It was figured out that providing information regarding drivers' behavior without appropriating motives or penalties would have a minuscule impact.In addition, the group of drivers who were treated with instant punishment was the most influenced group by the intervention.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.

Interpretation

Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Efficacy and safety of an inactivated virus-particle vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, BIV1-CovIran: randomised, placebo controlled, double blind, multicentre, phase 3 clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

To report the efficacy, safety, and exploratory immunogenicity findings of two 5 µg doses of the BIV1-CovIran vaccine.

DESIGN

Randomised, placebo controlled, double blind, multicentre, phase 3 clinical trial.

SETTING

In six cities of Iran, including Bushehr, Isfahan, Karaj, Mashhad, Shiraz, and Tehran. The first vaccine or placebo injection of the first participant was on 16 May 2021 in Tehran. The last vaccine or placebo injection of the last participant occurred on 15 July 2021 in Isfahan.

PARTICIPANTS

20 000 participants aged 18-75 years were randomly assigned to the intervention or placebo groups with a ratio of 2:1.

INTERVENTION

5 µg vaccine or placebo with the interval of 28 days.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Vaccine efficacy for a 90 day follow-up period, safety and explanatory immunogenicity assessment, and variant detection during the trial.

RESULTS

20 000 participants were recruited and randomly assigned to receive BIV1-CovIran (n=13 335 (66.7%)) or placebo (n=6665 (33.3%)). Participants' mean age was 38.3 (standard deviation 11.2) years, and 6913 (34.6%) were female. Among vaccinated participants that had covid-19 reported during the follow-up (median 83 days), 758 (5.9%) had symptoms, 144 (1.1%) had severe infection, and seven (0.1%) were critical. Among participants who received placebo during the follow-up, 688 (10.7%) had symptoms, 221 (3.4%) had severe infection, and 19 (0.3%) were critical. Overall efficacy was 50.2% (95% confidence interval 44.7% to 55.0%) against symptomatic covid-19, 70.5% (63.7% to 76.1%) against severe disease, and 83.1% (61.2% to 93.5%) against critical cases. Two deaths were reported in the efficacy population in the placebo group, no deaths were from the intervention group. During follow-up, 41 922 adverse events were reported: 28 782 (68.7%) were adverse reactions, of which 19 363 (67.3%) were in the intervention group. Most adverse reactions were mild or moderate in severity (grade 1 or 2) and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were related to the injections. For variant investigation, of 119 participants positive for the SARS-CoV-2 variant, 106 (89.1%) were positive for the delta variant.

CONCLUSIONS

A two dose regimen of the BIV1-CovIran vaccine conferred efficacy of 50.2% against symptomatic covid-19, 70.5% against severe disease, and 83.1% against critical disease. Vaccination was well tolerated, with no safety concerns raised.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials, IRCT20201202049567N3.

FUNDING

Shifa-Pharmed Industrial Group.

Prevalence of plasma lipid abnormalities and associated risk factors among Iranian adults based on the findings from STEPs survey 2021

The study aimed to estimate the prevalence of lipid abnormalities in Iranian adults by demographic characterization, geographical distribution, and associated risk factors using national and sub-national representative samples of the STEPs 2021 survey in Iran. In this population-based household survey, a total of 18,119 individuals aged over 25 years provided blood samples for biochemical analysis. Dyslipidemia was defined by the presence of at least one of the lipid abnormalities of hypertriglyceridemia (≥ 150 mg/dL), hypercholesterolemia (≥ 200 mg/dL), high LDL-C (≥ 130 mg/dL), and low HDL-C (< 50 mg/dL in women, < 40 mg/dL in men), or self-reported use of lipid-lowering medications. Mixed dyslipidemia was characterized as the coexistence of high LDL-C with at least one of the hypertriglyceridemia and low HDL-C. The prevalence of each lipid abnormality was determined by each population strata, and the determinants of abnormal lipid levels were identified using a multiple logistic regression model. The prevalence was 39.7% for hypertriglyceridemia, 21.2% for hypercholesterolemia, 16.4% for high LDL-C, 68.4% for low HDL-C, and 81.0% for dyslipidemia. Hypercholesterolemia and low HDL-C were more prevalent in women, and hypertriglyceridemia was more prevalent in men. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was higher in women (OR = 1.8), obese (OR = 2.8) and overweight (OR = 2.3) persons, those residents in urban areas (OR = 1.1), those with inappropriate physical activity (OR = 1.2), patients with diabetes (OR = 2.7) and hypertension (OR = 1.9), and participants with a history (OR = 1.6) or familial history of CVDs (OR = 1.2). Mixed dyslipidemia prevalence was 13.6% in women and 11.4% in men (P < 0.05). The prevalence of lipid abnormalities was highly heterogeneous among provinces, and East Azarbaijan with 85.3% (81.5-89.1) and Golestan with 68.5% (64.8-72.2) had the highest and lowest prevalence of dyslipidemia, respectively. Although the prevalence of high cholesterol and LDL-C had a descending trend in the 2016-2021 period, the prevalence of dyslipidemia remained unchanged. There are modifiable risk factors associated with dyslipidemia that can be targeted by the primary healthcare system. To modify these risk factors and promote metabolic health in the country, action plans should come to action through a multi-sectoral and collaborative approach.

Low bone mineral density, a neglected condition in North Africa and Middle East: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990-2019

Due to the high prevalence of low bone mineral density in North Africa and Middle East region, estimating its attributable burden would help to a better understanding of this neglected condition for policymakers and health researchers. This study presented the number of attributable deaths has doubled from 1990 to 2019.

PURPOSE

This study provides the latest estimates of the burden of low bone mineral density (BMD) from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region.

METHODS

The data were extracted from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study to estimate epidemiological indices such as deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and summary exposure value (SEV). SEV is a measure of the exposure of the population to a risk factor that considers the amount of exposure by the level of risk.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that in 1990-2019, the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD had almost doubled in the region and caused 20,371 (95% uncertainty intervals: 14,848-24,374) deaths and 805,959 (630,238-959,581) DALYs in 2019. However, DALYs and death rates showed a decreasing trend after age standardization. Saudi Arabia had the highest, and Lebanon had the lowest age-standardized DALYs rates in 2019, with rates of 434.2 (329.6-534.3) and 90.3 (70.6-112.1) per 100,000, respectively. The highest burden attributable to low BMD was in the 90-94 and over 95 age groups. Also, there was a decreasing trend in age-standardized SEV to low BMD for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Despite the decreasing trend of age-standardized burden indices, considerable amounts of deaths and DALYs were attributable to low BMD, especially in the elderly population, in the region in 2019. As the positive effects of proper interventions will be detectable in the long term, robust strategies and comprehensive stable policies are the ultimate solutions to achieving desired goals.

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.

Methods

In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model.

Findings

Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling.

Interpretation

Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

National and Provincial Prevalence of Cigarette Smoking in Iran; A Systematic Analysis of 12 Years of STEPS Experience

BACKGROUND

Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for six of the eight leading causes of death. Despite the great burden, there is lack of data regarding the trend of cigarette smoking in Iran. We described the national and provincial prevalence of cigarette smoking and its 12-year time trend utilizing six rounds of Iranian stepwise approach for surveillance of non-communicable disease (STEPS) surveys.

METHODS

We gathered data from six STEPS surveys done in 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2016 in Iran. To estimate the data of missing years, we used two separate statistical models including the mixed model and spatio-temporal analysis.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence rate of cigarette smoking was 14.65% (12.81‒16.59) in 2005 and 10.63% (9.00‒12.57) in 2016 in Iran. The prevalence of cigarette smoking in 2005 and 2016 was 25.15% (23.18‒27.11) and 19.95% (17.93%‒21.97%) for men and 4.13% (2.43‒6.05) and 1.31% (0.06-3.18) for women, respectively. The prevalence of smoking in different provinces of Iran ranged from 20.73% (19.09‒22.47) to 9.67% (8.24‒11.34) in 2005 and from 15.34% (13.68‒17.12) to 6.41% (5.31‒7.94) in 2016. The overall trend of smoking was downward, which was true for both sexes and all 31 provinces. The declining annual percent change (APC) of the prevalence trend was -2.87% in total population, -9.91% in women, and -2.08% in men from 2005 to 2016.

CONCLUSION

Although the prevalence of smoking had a decreasing trend in Iran, this trend showed disparities among sexes and provinces and this epidemiological data can be used to modify smoking prevention programs.

Evaluation of the diabetes care cascade and compliance with WHO global coverage targets in Iran based on STEPS survey 2021

This study aimed to investigate the diabetes mellitus (DM) and prediabetes epidemiology, care cascade, and compliance with global coverage targets. We recruited the results of the nationally representative Iran STEPS Survey 2021. Diabetes and prediabetes were two main outcomes. Diabetes awareness, treatment coverage, and glycemic control were calculated for all population with diabetes to investigate the care cascade. Four global coverage targets for diabetes developed by the World Health Organization were adopted to assess the DM diagnosis and control status. Among 18,119 participants, the national prevalence of DM and prediabetes were 14.2% (95% confidence interval 13.4-14.9) and 24.8% (23.9-25.7), respectively. The prevalence of DM treatment coverage was 65.0% (62.4-67.7), while the prevalence of good (HbA1C < 7%) glycemic control was 28.0% (25.0-31.0) among all individuals with diabetes. DM diagnosis and statin use statics were close to global targets (73.3% vs 80%, and 50.1% vs 60%); however, good glycemic control and strict blood pressure control statistics, were much way behind the goals (36.7% vs 80%, and 28.5% vs 80%). A major proportion of the Iranian population are affected by DM and prediabetes, and glycemic control is poorly achieved, indicating a sub-optimal care for diabetes and comorbidities like hypertension.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exploring the clinical benefit of ventilation therapy across various patient groups with COVID-19 using real-world data

Scarcity of ventilators during COVID-19 pandemic has urged public health authorities to develop prioritization recommendations and guidelines with the real-time decision-making process based on the resources and contexts. Nevertheless, patients with COVID-19 who will benefit the most from ventilation therapy have not been well-defined yet. Thus, the objective of this study was to investigate the benefit of ventilation therapy among various patient groups with COVID-19 admitted to hospitals, based on the real-world data of hospitalized adult patients. Data used in the longitudinal study included 599,340 records of hospitalized patients who were admitted from February 2020 to June 2021. All participants were categorized based on sex, age, city of residence, the hospitals' affiliated university, and their date of hospitalization. Age groups were defined as 18-39, 40-64, and more than 65-year-old participants. Two models were used in this study: in the first model, participants were assessed by their probability of receiving ventilation therapy during hospitalization based on demographic and clinical factors using mixed-effects logistic regression. In the second model, the clinical benefit of receiving ventilation therapy among various patient groups was quantified while considering the probability of receiving ventilation therapy during hospital admission, as estimated in the first model. The interaction coefficient in the second model indicated the difference in the slope of the logit probability of recovery for a one-unit increase in the probability of receiving ventilation therapy between the patients who received ventilation compared to those who did not while considering other factors constant. The interaction coefficient was used as an indicator to quantify the benefit of ventilation reception and possibly be used as a criterion for comparison among various patient groups. Among participants, 60,113 (10.0%) cases received ventilation therapy, 85,158 (14.2%) passed away due to COVID-19, and 514,182 (85.8%) recovered. The mean (SD) age was 58.5 (18.3) [range = 18-114, being 58.3 (18.2) among women, and 58.6 (18.4) among men]. Among all groups with sufficient data for analysis, patients aged 40-64 years who had chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) and malignancy benefitted the most from ventilation therapy; followed by patients aged 65 + years who had malignancy, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and diabetes (DM); and patients aged 18-39 years who had malignancy. Patients aged 65 + who had CRD and CVD gained the least benefit from ventilation therapy. Among patients with DM, patients aged 65 + years benefited from ventilation therapy, followed by 40-64 years. Among patients with CVD, patients aged 18-39 years benefited the most from ventilation therapy, followed by patients aged 40-64 years and 65 + years. Among patients with DM and CVD, patients aged 40-64 years benefited from ventilation therapy, followed by 65 + years. Among patients with no history of CRD, malignancy, CVD, or DM, patients aged 18-39 years benefited the most from ventilation therapy, followed by patients aged 40-64 years and 65 + years. This study promotes a new aspect of treating patients for ventilators as a scarce medical resource, considering whether ventilation therapy would improve the patient's clinical outcome. Should the prioritization guidelines for ventilators allocation take no notice of the real-world data, patients might end up being deprived of ventilation therapy, who could benefit the most from it. It could be suggested that rather than focusing on the scarcity of ventilators, guidelines focus on evidence-based decision-making algorithms to also take the usefulness of the intervention into account, whose beneficial effect is dependent on the selection of the right time in the right patient.

Tobacco consumption patterns among Iranian adults: a national and sub-national update from the STEPS survey 2021

Smoking is recognised as a critical public health priority due to its enormous health and economic consequences. Constant monitoring of the effectiveness of tobacco control programs calls for timely population-based data. This study reports the national and sub-national patterns in tobacco consumption among Iranian adults based on the results from the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey 2021. This study was performed through an analysis of the results of the STEPS survey 2021 which had been conducted as a nationally representative cross-sectional study. Participants included Iranian adults aged ≥ 18 years in all provinces of Iran, who were selected via multistage cluster sampling method. Data were analyzed via survey analysis while considering population weights. The total number of participants was 27,874, including 15,395 (55.23%) women and 12,479 (44.77%) men. The all-ages prevalence of current tobacco smoking was 14.01% overall, 4.44% among women, and 25.88% among men. The all-ages prevalence of current cigarette smoking was 9.33% overall, 0.77% among women, and 19.95% among men. The all-ages prevalence of current hookah smoking was 4.5% overall, 3.64% among women, and 5.56% among men. The mean (SD) number of cigarettes smoked per day was 12.41 (10.27) overall, 7.65 (8.09) among women, and 12.64 (10.31) among men. The mean (SD) monthly times of hookah use was 0.42 (7.87) overall, 2.86 (23.46) among women, and 0.3 (6.2) among men. The national all-ages prevalence of second-hand smoking at home was 24.64% overall, 27.38% among women, and 20.26% among men. The national all-ages prevalence of second-hand smoking at work was 19.49% overall, 17.33% among women, and 22.94% among men. The tobacco consumption in Iran remains alarmingly high, indicating the current tobacco control policy implementation level is ineffective and insufficient. This calls for adopting, implementing, and enforcing comprehensive packages of evidence-based tobacco control policies.

Patient experience with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a nationally representative demonstration study on quality and cost of healthcare services

Introduction

Due to insufficient data on patient experience with healthcare system among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), particularly in developing countries, this study attempted to investigate the journey of patients with COPD in the healthcare system using nationally representative data in Iran.

Methods

This nationally representative demonstration study was conducted from 2016 to 2018 using a novel machine-learning based sampling method based on different districts' healthcare structures and outcome data. Pulmonologists confirmed eligible participants and nurses recruited and followed them up for 3  months/in 4 visits. Utilization of various healthcare services, direct and indirect costs (including non-health, absenteeism, loss of productivity, and time waste), and quality of healthcare services (using quality indicators) were assessed.

Results

This study constituted of a final sample of 235 patients with COPD, among whom 154 (65.5%) were male. Pharmacy and outpatient services were mostly utilized healthcare services, however, participants utilized outpatient services less than four times a year. The annual average direct cost of a patient with COPD was 1,605.5 USDs. Some 855, 359, 2,680, and 933 USDs were imposed annually on patients with COPD due to non-medical costs, absenteeism, loss of productivity, and time waste, respectively. Based on the quality indicators assessed during the study, the focus of healthcare providers has been the management of the acute phases of COPD as the blood oxygen levels of more than 80% of participants were documented by pulse oximetry devices. However, chronic phase management was mainly missed as less than a third of participants were referred to smoking and tobacco quit centers and got vaccinated. In addition, less than 10% of participants were considered for rehabilitation services, and only 2% completed four-session rehabilitation services.

Conclusion

COPD services have focused on inpatient care, where patients experience exacerbation of the condition. Upon discharge, patients do not receive appropriate follow-up services targeting on preventive care for optimal controlling of pulmonary function and preventing exacerbation.

The burden of metabolic risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

The objective of this study is to investigate the trends of exposure and burden attributable to the four main metabolic risk factors, including high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body-mass index (BMI), and high low-density lipoproteins cholesterol (LDL) in North Africa and the Middle East from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

The data were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Summary exposure value (SEV) was used for risk factor exposure. Burden attributable to each risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

Findings

While age-standardized death rate (ASDR) attributable to high-LDL and high-SBP decreased by 26.5% (18.6-35.2) and 23.4% (15.9-31.5) over 1990-2019, respectively, high-BMI with 5.1% (-9.0-25.9) and high-FPG with 21.4% (7.0-37.4) change, grew in ASDR. Moreover, age-standardized DALY rate attributed to high-LDL and high-SBP declined by 30.2% (20.9-39.0) and 25.2% (16.8-33.9), respectively. The attributable age-standardized DALY rate of high-BMI with 8.3% (-6.5-28.8) and high-FPG with 27.0% (14.3-40.8) increase, had a growing trend. Age-standardized SEVs of high-FPG, high-BMI, high-SBP, and high-LDL increased by 92.4% (82.8-103.3), 76.0% (58.9-99.3), 10.4% (3.8-18.0), and 5.5% (4.3-7.1), respectively.

Interpretation

The burden attributed to high-SBP and high-LDL decreased during the 1990-2019 period in the region, while the attributable burden of high-FPG and high-BMI increased. Alarmingly, exposure to all four risk factors increased in the past three decades. There has been significant heterogeneity among the countries in the region regarding the trends of exposure and attributable burden. Urgent action is required at the individual, community, and national levels in terms of introducing effective strategies for prevention and treatment that account for local and socioeconomic factors.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 μm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

METHODS

The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis.

FINDINGS

The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher.

INTERPRETATION

The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional quality of care index for prostate cancer: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer (PCa) is one of the most prevalent cancers worldwide, with a significant burden on societies and healthcare providers. We aimed to develop a metric for PCa quality of care that could demonstrate the disease's status in different countries and regions (e.g., socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles) and assist in improving healthcare policies.

METHODS

Basic burden of disease indicators for various regions and age-groups were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019, which then were used to calculate four secondary indices: mortality to incidence ratio, DALYs to prevalence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, and YLLs to YLDs ratio. These four indices were combined through a principal component analysis (PCA), producing the quality of care index (QCI).

RESULTS

PCa's age-standardized incidence rate increased from 34.1 in 1990 to 38.6 in 2019, while the age-standardized death rate decreased in the same period (18.1 to 15.3). From 1990 to 2019, global QCI increased from 74 to 84. Developed regions (high SDI) had the highest PCa QCIs in 2019 (95.99), while the lowest QCIs belonged to low SDI countries (28.67), mainly from Africa. QCI peaked in age groups 50 to 54, 55 to 59, or 65 to 69, depending on the socio-demographic index.

CONCLUSIONS

Global PCa QCI stands at a relatively high value (84 in 2019). Low SDI countries are affected the most by PCa, mainly due to the lack of effective preventive and treatment methods in those regions. In many developed countries, QCI decreased or stopped rising after recommendations against routine PCa screening in the 2010-2012 period, highlighting the role of screening in reducing PCa burden.

Quality and cost of healthcare services in patients with diabetes in Iran: Results of a nationwide short-term longitudinal survey

Aims

To investigate the journey of patients with diabetes in the healthcare system using nationally-representative patient-reported data.

Methods

Participants were recruited using a machine-learning-based sampling method based on healthcare structures and medical outcome data and were followed up for three months. We assessed the resource utilization, direct/indirect costs, and quality of healthcare services.

Results

One hundred fifty-eight patients with diabetes participated. The most utilized services were medication purchases (276 times monthly) and outpatient visits (231 times monthly). During the previous year, 90% of respondents had a laboratory fasting blood glucose assessment; however, less than 70% reported a quarterly follow-up physician visit. Only 43% had been asked about any hypoglycemia episodes by their physician. Less than 45% of respondents had been trained for hypoglycemia self-management. The annual average health-related direct cost of a patient with diabetes was 769 USD. The average out-of-pocket share of direct costs was 601 USD (78.15%). Medication purchases, inpatient services, and outpatient services summed up 79.77% of direct costs with a mean of 613 USD.

Conclusion

Healthcare services focused solely on glycemic control and the continuity of services for diabetes control was insufficient. Medication purchases, and inpatient and outpatient services imposed the most out-of-pocket costs.

National, subnational and risk attributed burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Iran from 1990 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Data on the distribution of the burden of diseases is vital for policymakers for the appropriate allocation of resources. In this study, we report the geographical and time trends of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) in Iran from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global burden of the Disease (GBD) study 2019.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 study to report the burden of CRDs through disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, prevalence, Years of Life lost (YLL), and Years Lost to Disability (YLD). Moreover, we reported the burden attributed to the risk factors with evidence of causation at national and subnational levels. We also performed a decomposition analysis to determine the roots of incidence changes. All data were measured as counts and age-standardized rates (ASR) divided by sex and age group.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASR of deaths, incidence, prevalence, and DALYs attributed to CRDs in Iran were 26.9 (23.2 to 29.1), 932.1 (799.7 to 1091.5), 5155.4 (4567.2 to 5859.6) and 587,911 (521,418 to 661,392) respectively. All burden measures were higher in males than females, but in older age groups, CRDs were more incident in females than males. While all crude numbers increased, all ASRs except for YLDs decreased over the studied period. Population growth was the main contributor to the changes in incidence at a national and subnational levels. The ASR of mortality in the province (Kerman) with the highest death rate (58.54 (29.42 to 68.73) was four times more than the province (Tehran) with the lowest death rate (14.52 (11.94 to 17.64)). The risk factors which imposed the most DALYs were smoking (216 (189.9 to 240.8)), ambient particulate matter pollution (117.9 (88.1 to 149.4)), and high body mass index (BMI) (57 (36.3 to 81.8)). Smoking was also the main risk factor in all provinces.

CONCLUSION

Despite the overall decrease in ASR of burden measures, the crude counts are rising. Moreover, the ASIR of all CRDs except asthma is increasing. This suggests that the overall incidence of CRDs will continue to grow in the future, which calls for immediate action to reduce exposure to the known risk factors. Therefore, expanded national plans by policymakers are essential to prevent the economic and human burden of CRDs.

Effect of the chronic medication use on outcome measures of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: Evidence from big data

Background

Concerns about the role of chronically used medications in the clinical outcomes of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have remarkable potential for the breakdown of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) management by imposing ambivalence toward medication continuation. This study aimed to investigate the association of single or combinations of chronically used medications in NCDs with clinical outcomes of COVID-19.

Methods

This retrospective study was conducted on the intersection of two databases, the Iranian COVID-19 registry and Iran Health Insurance Organization. The primary outcome was death due to COVID-19 hospitalization, and secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and ventilation therapy. The Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification system was used for medication grouping. The frequent pattern growth algorithm was utilized to investigate the effect of medication combinations on COVID-19 outcomes.

Findings

Aspirin with chronic use in 10.8% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients was the most frequently used medication, followed by Atorvastatin (9.2%) and Losartan (8.0%). Adrenergics in combination with corticosteroids inhalants (ACIs) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.92) were the most associated medications with less chance of ventilation therapy. Oxicams had the least OR of 0.80 (0.73-0.87) for COVID-19 death, followed by ACIs [0.85 (0.77-0.95)] and Biguanides [0.86 (0.82-0.91)].

Conclusion

The chronic use of most frequently used medications for NCDs management was not associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes. Thus, when indicated, physicians need to discourage patients with NCDs from discontinuing their medications for fear of possible adverse effects on COVID-19 prognosis.

National and subnational burden of brain and central nervous system cancers in Iran, 1990-2019: Results from the global burden of disease study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Central nervous system cancers (CNS cancers) impose a significant burden upon healthcare systems worldwide. Currently, the lack of a comprehensive study to assess various epidemiological indexes of CNS cancers on national and subnational scales in Iran can hamper healthcare planning and resource allocation in this regard. This study aims to fill this gap by providing estimates of CNS cancer epidemiological measures on national and subnational levels in Iran from 1990 to 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study is a part of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 that contains epidemiological measures including prevalence, incidence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) of CNS cancers. Age standardization was utilized for comparing different provinces.

RESULTS

In 2019, 5811 (95% Uncertainty Interval: 2942-7046) national new cases and 3494 (1751-4173) deaths due to CNS cancers were reported. National age-standardized incidence (ASIR), deaths (ASDR), and DALYs rates were 7.3 (3.7-8.8), 4.6 (2.3-5.5), and 156.4 (82.0-187.0) per 100,000 in 2019, respectively. Subnational results revealed that ASDR and ASIR have increased in the past 30 years in all provinces. Although incidence rates have increased in all age groups and genders since 1990, death rates have remained the same for most age groups and genders except for young patients aged under 15, where a decrease in mortality and YLLs can be observed.

CONCLUSION

The incidence, deaths, and DALYs of CNS cancers increased at national and subnational levels. These findings should be considered for planning and resource allocation.

Physical activity pattern in Iran: Findings from STEPS 2021

Background

Insufficient physical activity (IPA) is a significant risk factor for various non-communicable diseases. The Iran action plan is a 20% reduction in IPA. Therefore, we aimed to describe the age and sex pattern of physical activity domains, IPA, the intensity of physical activity, sedentary behavior, and their associates at Iran's national and provincial levels in 2021.

Methods

This study used the data of the STEPwise Approach to NCD Risk Factor Surveillance (STEPS) 2021 in Iran. The STEPS study used the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) version two developed by WHO for the assessment of physical activity, which included work, transport, and recreational activities domains. We showed and compared demographic and clinical characteristics of participants between males and females, using t-test and Chi-square test. A logistic regression model adjusted for residential areas, years of schooling, wealth index, age, marital status, and occupation has also been implemented. The results were presented as percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

We included 27,874 participants with a mean (SD) age of 45.69 (15.91), among whom 12,479 (44.77%) were male. The mean prevalence of IPA for the whole population for all ages was 51.3% (50.62-51.98%). By sex, 41.93% (40.88-42.98%) and 57.87% (56.99-58.75%) of men and women had IPA, respectively. According to the physical activity domains, the age-standardized prevalence of no recreational activity was 79.40% (78.80-79.99%), no activity at work was 66.66% (65.99-67.32%), and no activity at transport was 49.40% (48.68-50.11%) for both sexes combined. Also, the overall age-standardized prevalence of sedentary behaviors was 50.82% (50.11-51.53%). Yazd province represented the highest prevalence of IPA (63.45%), while West Azerbaijan province represented the lowest prevalence (39.53%). Among both sexes, living in the urban area vs. rural area [adjusted OR: 1.44; (1.31-1.58)], married vs. single status [adjusted OR: 1.33; (1.16-1.53)], and wealth index of class 3 vs. class 1 [adjusted OR: 1.15; (1.01-1.30)] were significantly associated with a higher rate of IPA.

Conclusion

The prevalence of IPA was considerably high in Iran. To achieve the predefined goal of reducing IPA, the health system should prioritize increasing physical activity, especially in urban areas and among females.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of liver cirrhosis by cause from global burden of disease 1990-2019

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases are complex disorders with a known burden. Currently health systems have different approaches to dealing with this issue. The objective of this study is to describe the burden attributed to and quality of care for cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases.

METHODS

Data of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases extracted from Global-Burden-of-Diseases 2019. Four indicators, including mortality to incidence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, and years-of-life-lost (YLLs) to years-lived-with-disability (YLDs) ratio, were defined and combined by the principal-components-analysis to construct the Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI).

RESULTS

The global QCI of cirrhosis increased from 71.0 in 1990 to 79.3 in 2019. The QCI showed a favorable situation in higher SDI countries compared with lower SDI countries, with a QCI of 86.8 in high SDI countries and 60.1 in low SDI countries. The highest QCI was found in Western Pacific Region (90.2), and the lowest was for African Region (60.4). Highest QCI belonged to the 50-54 age group (99.5), and the lowest was for the 30.34 age group (70.9). Among underlying causes of cirrhosis, the highest QCI belonged to alcohol use, followed by hepatitis C and NAFLD with QCIs of 86.1, 85.3, and 81.1.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a considerable variation in the QCI of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. Countries with low QCI, mainly located in developing regions, need organized action to control the burden of cirrhosis and its underlying causes and improve their quality of care.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the burden of diseases attributable to lead exposure in the North Africa and Middle East region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Lead exposure (LE) and its attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) have declined in the recent decade; however, it remains one of the leading public health concerns, particularly in regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI) such as the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. Hence, we aimed to describe the attributable burden of the LE in this region.

METHODS

Data on deaths, DALYs, years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) attributable to LE in the NAME region and its 21 countries from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study.

RESULTS

In 2019, the age-standardized death and DALY rates attributable to LE were 23.4 (95% uncertainty interval: 15.1 to 33.3) and 489.3 (320.5 to 669.6) per 100,000 in the region, respectively, both of which were higher among men than women. The overall age-standardized death and DALY rates showed 27.7% and 36.8% decreases, respectively, between 1990 and 2019. In this period, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey had the highest decreases in the age-standardized death and DALY rates, while Afghanistan, Egypt, and Yemen had the lowest ones. Countries within high SDI quintile had lower attributable burden to LE compared with the low SDI quintile. Cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney diseases accounted for the 414.2 (258.6 to 580.6) and 28.7 (17.7 to 41.7) LE attributable DALYs per 100,000 in 2019, respectively. The attributable YLDs was 46.4 (20.7 to 82.1) per 100,000 in 2019, which shows a 25.7% reduction (-30.8 to -22.5%) over 1990-2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall LE and its attributed burden by cause have decreased in the region from 1990-2019. Nevertheless, the application of cost-effective and long-term programs for decreasing LE and its consequences in NAME is needed.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of prostate cancer in North Africa and Middle East, 1990-2019: Findings from the global burden of disease study

Background

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most prevalent cancer among men worldwide. This study presents estimates of PCa prevalence, incidence, death, years-of-life-lost (YLLs), years-lived-with-disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs), and the burden attributable to smoking during 1990-2019 in North Africa and Middle East using data of Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019.

Methods

This study is a part of GBD 2019. Using vital registration and cancer registry data, the estimates on PCa burden were modeled. Risk factor analysis was performed through the six-step conceptual framework of Comparative Risk Assessment.

Results

The age-standardized rates (95% UI) of PCa incidence, prevalence, and death in 2019 were 23.7 (18.5-27.9), 161.1 (126.6-187.6), and 11.7 (9.4-13.9) per 100,000 population. While PCa incidence and prevalence increased by 77% and 144% during 1990-2019, respectively, the death rate stagnated. Of the 397% increase in PCa new cases, 234% was due to a rise in the age-specific incidence rate, 79% due to population growth, and 84% due to population aging. The YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs of PCa increased by 2% (-11.8-23.1), 108% (75.5-155.1), and 6% (-8.9-28.1). The death rate and DALYs rate attributable to smoking have decreased 12% and 10%, respectively. The DALYs rate attributable to smoking was 37.4 (15.9-67.8) in Lebanon and 5.9 (2.5-10.6) in Saudi Arabia, which were the highest and lowest in the region, respectively.

Conclusions

The PCa incidence and prevalence rates increased during 1990-2019; however, the death rate stagnated. The increase in the incidence was mostly due to the rise in the age-specific incidence rate, rather than population growth or aging. The burden of PCa attributable to smoking has decreased in the past 30 years.

The effectiveness of fixed speed cameras on Iranian taxi drivers: An evaluation of the influential factors

Background

The adherence to speed limits can reduce deaths associated with road traffic injuries (RTIs) by more than a quarter. This study aimed to evaluate the effective factors on the speeding behavior of Iranian taxi drivers around fixed speed cameras.

Method

Telematics devices used in this study collected the location and speed of the vehicles. The units of analysis in this study were trips per camera, including 2.5 km before and after each camera. Linear regression analysis was used to identify kangaroo driving (KD), defined as trips with a significant V-shape in speed distribution around the camera. In the clustered camera zones, cameras were placed at regular intervals of approximately 3.5 km.

Findings

A total of 93,160 trips were recorded from 13,857,443 data points. There was an inverse association between drivers' age and KD with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.98-0.98). The intercity trips had a substantially higher probability of KD than urban trips (OR: 4.94 [4.73-5.16]). The tendency of drivers toward KD during the daylight hours vs. nighttime was significant for both urban (OR: 1.15 [1.06-1.25]) and intercity (OR: 1.18 [1.14-1.22]) trips. The 4 -8 a.m. period had the highest chance of KD in both urban (10.71% [7.41-14.53]) and intercity (44.13% [41.18-47.09]) trips. There was a significant decrease in the odds of KD inside the clustered camera zones (OR: 0.22 [0.20-0.25]).

Conclusion

The heterogeneous occurrence of KD in different locations and times indicates the necessity of evidence-based decision-making in urban planning to improve safe driving behaviors. The lower occurrence of KD in clustered camera zones could be a practical key to the effective control of speeding behaviors by helping in the efficient placement of cameras through sustainable development of cities and roads.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quality of care of peptic ulcer disease worldwide: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990–2019

Background

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) affects four million people worldwide annually and has an estimated lifetime prevalence of 5−10% in the general population. Worldwide, there are significant heterogeneities in coping approaches of healthcare systems with PUD in prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. Quantifying and benchmarking health systems’ performance is crucial yet challenging to provide a clearer picture of the potential global inequities in the quality of care.

Objective

The objective of this study was to compare the health-system quality-of-care and inequities for PUD among age groups and sexes worldwide.

Methods

Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2019. Principal-Component-Analysis was used to combine age-standardized mortality-to-incidence-ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years-to-prevalence-ratio, prevalence-to-incidence-ratio, and years-of-life-lost-to-years-lived-with-disability-into a single proxy named Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI). QCI was used to compare the quality of care among countries. QCI’s validity was investigated via correlation with the cause-specific Healthcare-Access-and-Quality-index, which was acceptable. Inequities were presented among age groups and sexes. Gender Disparity Ratio was obtained by dividing the score of women by that of men.

Results

Global QCI was 72.6 in 1990, which increased by 14.6% to 83.2 in 2019. High-income-Asia-pacific had the highest QCI, while Central Latin America had the lowest. QCI of high-SDI countries was 82.9 in 1990, which increased to 92.9 in 2019. The QCI of low-SDI countries was 65.0 in 1990, which increased to 76.9 in 2019. There was heterogeneity among the QCI-level of countries with the same SDI level. QCI typically decreased as people aged; however, this gap was more significant among low-SDI countries. The global Gender Disparity Ratio was close to one and ranged from 0.97 to 1.03 in 100 of 204 countries.

Conclusion

QCI of PUD improved dramatically during 1990–2019 worldwide. There are still significant heterogeneities among countries on different and similar SDI levels.

Burden of stroke in North Africa and Middle East, 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

While several studies investigated the epidemiology and burden of stroke in the North Africa and Middle East region, no study has comprehensively evaluated the age-standardized attributable burden to all stroke subtypes and their risk factors yet.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study is to explore the regional distribution of the burden of stroke, including ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and intracerebral hemorrhage, and the attributable burden to its risk factors in 2019 among the 21 countries of North Africa and Middle East super-region.

METHODS

The data of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 on stroke incidence, prevalence, death, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) rates, and attributed deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs to stroke risk factors were used for the present study.

RESULTS

The age-standardized deaths, DALYs, and YLLs rates were diminished statistically significant by 27.8, 32.0, and 35.1% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Attributed deaths, DALYs, and YLLs to stroke risk factors, including high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose shrank statistically significant by 24.9, 25.8, and 28.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

While the age-standardized stroke burden has reduced during these 30 years, it is still a concerning issue due to its increased burden in all-age numbers. Well-developed primary prevention, timely diagnosis and management of the stroke and its risk factors might be appreciated for further decreasing the burden of stroke and its risk factors and reaching Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 target for reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Rheumatic Heart Disease Is a Neglected Disease Relative to Its Burden Worldwide: Findings From Global Burden of Disease 2019

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) takes a heavy toll in low‐ and middle‐income countries. We aimed to present worldwide estimates for the burden of the RHD during 1990 to 2019 using the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study.

Methods and Results

Sociodemographic index (SDI) and age‐period‐cohort analysis were used to assess inequity. The age‐standardized death, disability‐adjusted life years, incidence, and prevalence rates of RHD were 3.9 (95% uncertainty interval, 3.3–4.3), 132.9 (95% uncertainty interval, 115.0–150.3), 37.4 (28.6–46.7), and 513.7 (405.0–636.3) per 100 000 in 2019, respectively. The age‐standardized incidence and prevalence rates increased by 14.4% and 13.8%, respectively. However, disability‐adjusted life years and death rates decreased by 53.1% and 56.9%, respectively. South Asia superregion had the highest age‐standardized disability‐adjusted life years and deaths. Sub‐Saharan Africa had the highest age‐standardized incidence and prevalence rates. There was a steep decline in RHD burden among higher‐SDI countries. However, only age‐standardized deaths and disability‐adjusted life years rates decreased in lower‐SDI countries. The age‐standardized years of life lost and years lived with disability rates for RHD significantly declined as countries' SDI increased. The coefficients of birth cohort effect on the incidence of RHD showed an increasing trend from 1960 to 1964 to 2015 to 2019; however, the birth cohort effect on deaths attributable to RHD showed unfailingly decreasing trends from 1910 to 1914 to 2015 to 2019.

Conclusions

There was a divergence in the burden of RHD among countries based on SDI levels, which calls for including RHD in global assistance and funding. Indeed, many countries are still dealing with an unfinished infectious disease agenda, and there is an urgency to act now to prevent an increase in future RHD burden.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated virus particle vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, BIV1-CovIran: findings from double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase I and II clinical trials among healthy adults

OBJECTIVE

Assessing safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated whole virus particle vaccine.

DESIGN

Single-centre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase I (stage I: 18-50, stage II: 51-75 years), phase II (18-75 years) clinical trials.

SETTING

29 December 2020 to 22 April 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Stage I-phase I: 56 participants; stage II-phase I: 32; phase II: 280.

INTERVENTION

During stage I, participants randomly (3:3:1) received 3 µg, 5 µg vaccine or placebo in a 14-day interval. Participants in stage II received two shots of 5 µg vaccine or placebo (3:1). In phase II, participants received 5 µg vaccine or placebo (4:1) in a 28-day interval.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Safety assessment and immunogenicity assessment via antibody response and conventional virus neutralisation test (cVNT).

RESULTS

All adverse events (AEs) were mild or moderate and transient in both phase I and phase II, and no AEs of special interest were reported. The seroconversion-rate of neutralising, antireceptor binding-domain (RBD) and anti-spike-glycoprotein (anti-S) antibodies 14-days after second dose of 5 µg vaccine in stage I was 70.8% (95% CI 48.9% to 87.4%), 87.5% (95% CI 67.6% to 97.3%), 91.7% (95% CI 73.0% to 99.0%). The antibody titres increased more among 5 µg than 3 µg. The corresponding rates for 3 µg vaccine were 45.8% (95% CI 25.6% to 67.2%), 54.2% (95% CI 32.8% to 74.5%) and 70.8% (95% CI 48.9% to 87.4%), respectively. In stage II, 100% (95% CI 84.6% to 100%), 86.4% (95% CI 65.1% to 97.1%) and 86.4% (95% CI 65.1% to 97.1%) of participants seroconverted for neutralising, anti-RBD and anti-S antibodies. In phase II, the seroconversion rate of neutralising-antibody was 82.8% (95% CI 77.0% to 87.6%), anti-RBD 77.0% (95% CI 70.7% to 82.6%) and anti-S 79.9% (95% CI 73.8% to 85.1%) on day 42. In the cVNT, the sera at 1/64 times dilution would neutralise SARS-CoV-2 among 91.7%, 77.3% and 82.5% of vaccinated participants in phase I-stage I, phase I-stage II and phase II clinical trials, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support further evaluation of this inactivated whole virus particle vaccine.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

IRCT20201202049567N1 and IRCT20201202049567N2 for phase I and IRCT20201202049567N3 for phase II.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices About COVID-19 Among Healthcare Workers in Iran During the First Wave of the Pandemic

Background and Objective

Investigating the knowledge, attitudes, and practices about the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among healthcare workers (HCWs) could be an early step toward identifying their potential educational needs and possible factors involved in misinformation. The objective of this study was to investigate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices about COVID-19 among healthcare workers in Iran during the first wave of the pandemic.

Materials and Methods

The current descriptive-correlational study was conducted during the 1st days of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran from March 24th to April 3rd, 2020. Participants included all healthcare workers at hospitals, including physicians, dentists, pharmacists, nurses, midwives, laboratory and radiology assistants, and other hospital professionals during the study period. Data were collected through an online self-administrative questionnaire.

Results

The responses of 1,310 participants were analyzed, of which 900 (68.7%) were female. The mean (SD) knowledge score was 25.4 (3.3), 84.7% out of 30. More than 90% of participants correctly recognized the main symptoms, transmission route, and preventive measures for COVID-19. The mean (SD) attitude score was 16.9 (1.1), 93.9% out of 18. Most participants agreed with keeping safe physical distancing, self-isolation upon symptom onset, and city lockdowns. The mean (SD) score for general practices about COVID-19 was 20.8 (2.0), 86.7% of 24.

Conclusion

The knowledge and practice of HCWs were appropriate, and their attitudes were mainly positive. However, there is still room for improvement regarding concerning misinformation and quackeries about COVID-19.