Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

An indirect ELISA for detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in human sera using a baculovirus-expressed recombinant nucleocapsid antigen

This study focuses on the development and initial assessment of an indirect IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) specifically designed to detect of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The unique aspect of this ELISA method lies in its utilization of a recombinant nucleocapsid (N) antigen, produced through baculovirus expression in insect cells. Our analysis involved 292 RT-qPCR confirmed positive serum samples and 54 pre-pandemic healthy controls. The process encompassed cloning, expression, and purification of the SARS-CoV-2 N gene in insect cells, with the resulted purified protein employed in our ELISA tests. Statistical analysis yielded an Area Under the Curve of 0.979, and the optimized cut-off exhibited 92 % sensitivity and 94 % specificity. These results highlight the ELISA's potential for robust and reliable serological detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Further assessments, including a larger panel size, reproducibility tests, and application in diverse populations, could enhance its utility as a valuable biotechnological solution for diseases surveillance.

Factors associated with Community Health Agents' knowledge about tuberculosis

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the factors associated with the knowledge of Community Health Agents (ACS) about tuberculosis.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 110 ACS. A questionnaire was used to assess knowledge about pulmonary tuberculosis (component 1) and the work functions of ACS in the National Tuberculosis Control Program (component 2). The level of knowledge, according to the scores converted into a scale of 0 to 100, was classified as: 0-50% (low), 51-75% (medium), and over 75% (high). Multiple regression was used in the analysis of associated factors.

RESULTS

The global score (average of the scores of components 1 and 2) median knowledge was 68.6%. Overall knowledge about tuberculosis was positively associated with the length of professional experience, having received training on tuberculosis, and access to the tuberculosis guide/handbook.

CONCLUSIONS

Investments in training and capacity-building strategies for ACS will contribute to increasing these professionals' knowledge, resulting in greater success in tuberculosis control.

Emicizumab prophylaxis in people with hemophilia A and inhibitors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Until recently, the treatment of people with hemophilia A and inhibitors (PwHAi) was based on the use of bypassing agents (BPA). However, the advent of emicizumab as prophylaxis has demonstrated promising results.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the bleeding endpoints between PwHAi on BPA and those on emicizumab prophylaxis.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic review of interventions and meta-analysis conducted at the Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.

METHODS

The CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Scopus, and LILACS databases were searched on February 21, 2023. Two authors conducted the literature search, publication selection, and data extraction. The selected publications evaluated the bleeding endpoints between PwHAi on emicizumab prophylaxis and those on BPA prophylaxis. The risk of bias was evaluated according to the Joanna Briggs Institute criteria. A meta-analysis was performed to determine the annualized bleeding rate (ABR) for treated bleeds.

RESULTS

Five publications (56 PwHAi) were selected from the 543 retrieved records. Overall, bleeding endpoints were lower during emicizumab prophylaxis than during BPA prophylaxis. All the publications had at least one risk of bias. The only common parameter for the meta-analysis was the ABR for treated bleeds. During emicizumab prophylaxis, the ABR for treated bleeds was lower than during BPA prophylaxis (standard mean difference: -1.58; 95% confidence interval -2.50, -0.66, P = 0.0008; I2 = 68.4%, P = 0.0031).

CONCLUSION

Emicizumab was superior to BPA in bleeding prophylaxis in PwHAi. However, both the small population size and potential risk of bias should be considered when evaluating these results.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

CRD42021278726, https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=278726.

Effect of Heated Saline Solution on Pain Intensity, Wound Bed Temperature, and Comfort during Chronic Wound Dressing Changes: Crossover Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the use of heated saline solution during wound cleaning on the intensity of pain related to the procedure, the temperature of the wound bed, and the comfort of patients with chronic wounds. Further, to investigate patient preference in relation to the temperature of the solution used for cleaning.

METHODS

Crossover, single-blind, clinical trial with 32 people with chronic wounds. Providers cleaned the wounds with room temperature and heated saline solution. Participants were randomized into group 1 A/B (heated solution first, room temperature second) or group 2 B/A (room temperature solution first, heated solution second), with a 10-minute washout period. Investigators evaluated pain intensity, wound bed temperature, and patient-reported comfort and preference.

RESULTS

The heated solution was preferred (P = .04) and more often referred to as comfortable (P = .04) by the participants. There was no difference in pain intensity before and after cleaning with room temperature (2.03; P = .155) and heated saline (2.25; P = .44). The heated solution increased the temperature of the wound bed by 0.5 °C.

CONCLUSIONS

Although heating saline solution could be an important comfort measure during dressing changes, quantitatively, the temperature of the solution did not significantly change the temperature of the wound bed nor the intensity of pain patients experienced.

In-hospital breastfeeding and predictive factors during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective cohort study - Aleitamento materno hospitalar e fatores preditores durante a pandemia pelo SARS-CoV-2: Coorte retrospectiva

PURPOSE

To analyze breastfeeding and the factors that positively influence the first hour of life, during hospitalization, and at discharge during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

DESIGN AND METHOD

This is a retrospective cohort study, with data collected from medical records. Consisting of 225 mother-newborn dyads with deliveries between 2020 and 2021. Breastfeeding in the first hour of life, during hospitalization, and at discharge was considered as the outcome variable. The independent variables were sociodemographic, obstetric, and neonatal data. The analysis was performed with bivariate and multivariate regression through a generalized linear model (Poisson family), with a 5% significance level. It was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB), under approval number 4,911,317.

RESULT

Newborns of women without COVID-19 suspicion or diagnosis and who had skin-to-skin contact with their mother at birth are twice as likely to be breastfed in the first hour of life. Absence of complications in the newborn during hospitalization and no COVID-19 suspicion or diagnosis double the exclusive breastfeeding rate during hospitalization. Newborns exclusively breastfed during hospitalization present 1.6 times more chances of being exclusively breastfeeding at hospital discharge.

CONCLUSION

It was evidence that women who gave birth without COVID-19 suspicion, and newborns who had skin-to-skin contact with their mother at birth represented a predictive factor for favoring exclusive breastfeeding.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

This research contributes to the innovation of evaluating breastfeeding in the newborn's first hour of life, during hospitalization, and at discharge in a pandemic context.

Prevalence and factors associated with driving under the influence of alcohol in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with Driving Under the Influence of Alcohol (DUIA) among car drivers and motorcyclists in Brazil and to evaluate the association between DUIA and self-reported Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) in these groups.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from adults aged 18 or older who participated in the 2019 National Health Survey. Probability sampling was used to recruit participants, and data collection was carried out through home visits. Data from 31,246 car drivers and 21,896 motorcyclists were analyzed. Key indicators included the proportion (%) of car drivers who consumed alcohol and then drove in the past 12 months and the proportion (%) of motorcyclists who consumed alcohol and then drove in the past 12 months. Multiple Poisson regression was used to determine factors associated with DUIA and the association of this variable with RTIs in both groups.

RESULTS

DUIA prevalence was 9.4% (95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 8.8-10.0) among car drivers and 11.2% (95% CI = 10.4-12.1) among motorcyclists. Among car drivers, DUIA prevalence was higher in men, young adults, those without a spouse/partner, and lower in individuals with lower income and education level. Among motorcyclists, DUIA prevalence was higher in men, young adults, those living outside the capitals and metropolitan regions, and lower in individuals with lower income. DUIA increased the prevalence of self-reported RTIs in the previous 12 months among car drivers and motorcyclists.

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of DUIA was evident among drivers, particularly motorcyclists. The DUIA was more prevalent among men and young adults. The DUIA was associated with an increased magnitude of self-reported RTIs among car drivers and motorcyclists. Despite the extensive legislation for zero tolerance toward DUIA in the country, actions need stricter enforcement.

[Trend in breast cancer mortality rate among women aged 20 years or older in Brazil, 2005-2019]

The aim is to analyze the trend in breast cancer mortality rates and its correlation with the socioeconomic development status in Brazil. It involved an ecological time series study carried out in the 26 units of the federation, Federal District and regions of Brazil. Data sources included the Mortality Information System (number of deaths), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (resident population) and the study of the Global Burden of Disease (Socio-demographic Index - SDI). Data from 2005 to 2019 were used. The trend was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression models. The relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI was analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. During the study period, 207,683 deaths from breast cancer occurred. The average standardized mortality rate was 19.95 deaths per 100,000 women in Brazil. All the regions of Brazil showed an increasing trend in mortality. Of the total federative units, 22 showed an increasing trend. There was a positive relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI. The standardized mortality rate for breast cancer showed an increasing trend in Brazil, in all regions and in most states. There was a direct association between mortality and SDI, indicating a greater magnitude in more developed regions.

Environmental and behavioral factors associated with household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in children and adolescents

Objective

To analyze the association between risk behaviors and environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents in the family environment.

Methods

Cross-sectional study. A total of 267 children and adolescents aged 5-19 years who have contact with COVID-19-positive essential workers were tested between June and October 2020. Behavioral and environmental variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were investigated. Association between these variables was performed using Poisson regression.

Results

SARS-CoV-2 prevalence was 25.1%. Following the confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis of the index case, 92.1% of adults reported hand hygiene and 83.5% showed habits of respiratory etiquette. However, 12.7% wore masks in common areas of the residence before COVID-19. Sharing common objects was a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the sample.

Conclusion

Sharing objects among family members was identified as a risk factor associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents who lived with infected adults. There was high frequency of hand hygiene and low prevalence of mask use.

Impact of the program life in traffic and new zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on the prevalence of driving after alcohol abuse in Brazilian capitals: An interrupted time series analysis

INTRODUCTION

Driving under the influence of alcohol is one of the main factors for morbidity and mortality from traffic accidents. In 2010 and 2013, the Program Life in Traffic was implemented in Brazil, including the international initiative "Road Safety in Ten Countries", which established actions to reduce one of the main risk factors for road traffic injuries, the driving under the influence of alcohol. In 2012, a new zero-tolerance drinking and driving law (new dry law) was implemented, establishing a zero-tolerance limit for the drivers' blood alcohol concentration, and increasing punitive measures. This study aimed at analyzing the impact of these measures on the prevalence of driving under the influence of alcohol abuse in Brazilian capitals.

METHODS

An interrupted time series study was conducted using the models of autoregressive integrated moving average or seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. The main outcome was the prevalence of driving after alcohol abuse in the adult population (≥ 18 years). The model's predictors were the interventions "Program Life in Traffic" and "New Dry Law". The former was implemented in the first quarter of 2011, initially in five capitals: Belo Horizonte, Campo Grande, Palmas, Teresina, and Curitiba, being expanded to the other capitals in the first quarter of 2013. The latter was implemented in the country on the first quarter of 2013. Data source for the study was the records of the surveillance system for risk and protection factors of chronic diseases through telephone survey (Vigitel) from 2007 to 2016.

RESULTS

The time intervals considered in the study were the quarters. Thirty-eight units were considered in the analysis, corresponding to time series points. It was found that after the implementation of the Program Life in Traffic, in the first quarter of 2011, there was a reduction in the prevalence in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba. Because the introduction of the New Dry Law and the Program Life in Traffic took place in similar periods in the other cities, there was a significant reduction in the outcome prevalence in the cities of Aracaju, Belo Horizonte, Boa Vista, Fortaleza, João Pessoa, Maceió, Manaus, Palmas, Porto Alegre, Recife, Teresina, Rio Branco, and Vitória following the law application.

CONCLUSION

The present study identified an immediate impact of the Program Life in Traffic in two capitals (Belo Horizonte and Curitiba) and a joint impact of the New Dry Law in 13 capitals. The results of this study have implications for strengthening interventions aimed at reducing the burden of morbidity and mortality from traffic accidents in Brazil.

Magnitude of risk factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases in adolescents and young adults in Brazil: A population-based study

AIM OF THE STUDY

Estimate the magnitude and factors associated with risk factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases in adolescents and young adults in Brazil.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study that analyzed data from the 2019 National Health Survey. The population of interest was adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 24 years. Data were collected through individual interviews during home visits. Dependent variables included major risk factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were used as independent variables. Multiple Poisson regression models were used to assess the relationship between independent variables and risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 10,460 individuals (5,001 men and 5,459 women) were included. Regardless of sex, the most prevalent risk factors were insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption (92.6%) and leisure-time physical inactivity (43.3%). The prevalence rates of tobacco smokers, alcohol consumption once a month or more, and alcohol abuse were 8.9%, 28.7%, and 18.5%, respectively. Regular consumption of soft drinks and/or artificial juices was described by 17.2%. The prevalence of overweight was 32.5%. Young adults, males, and individuals with lower educational levels, of black race/skin color, with lower household income, and residents of urban areas had a higher prevalence for most risk factors. Differences in the determinants were found for some factors. Inequalities between Brazilian regions were recorded for seven of the nine factors analyzed. The most socioeconomically developed regions had the highest prevalence of most risk factors. The high magnitude of risk factors indicates a potential increase in the burden of chronic noncommunicable diseases in a future scenario for Brazil.

Trend and spatial clustering of medical education in Brazil: an ecological study of time series from 2010 to 2021

CONTEXT

Studies that analyze the temporal trend and spatial clustering of medical education indicators are scarce, especially in developing countries such as Brazil. This analysis is essential to subsidize more equitable policies for the medical workforce in the states and regions of Brazil. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the temporal trend and identify spatial clusters of medical education indicators in Brazil disaggregated by public and private education, states, and regions.

METHODS

A time-series ecological study was conducted using data from the Higher Education Census of the Ministry of Education from 2010 to 2021. The study analyzed vacancy density indicators of active and former students/100,000 population, disaggregated by public and private education, 27 states, and 5 regions in Brazil. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analyses of indicators. Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) was used to identify spatial clusters of indicators.

RESULTS

The number of medical schools increased by 102.2% between 2010 and 2021. A total of 366 medical schools offered 54,870 vacancies at the end of 2021. Vacancy density and active and former students increased significantly in the period, but this increase was greater in private institutions. Most states and regions showed an increasing trend in the indicators, with higher increase percentages in private than in public schools. Hot spot spaces changed over time, concentrated in the southeast, center-west, and north at the end of 2021. Medical education remains uneven in Brazil, with a low provision in regions with low socioeconomic development, academic structure, and health services, represented by regions in the north and northeast.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a growing trend in medical education indicators in Brazil, especially in the private sector. Spatial clusters were found predominantly in the southeast, center-west, and north. These results indicate the need for more equitable medical education planning between the regions.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and factors associated with multimorbidity in adults in Brazil, according to sex: a population-based cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Multimorbidity, defined as the coexistence of two or more chronic diseases in the same individual, represents a significant health challenge. However, there is limited evidence on its prevalence and associated factors in developing countries, such as Brazil, especially stratified by sex. Thus, this study aims to estimate the prevalence and analyze the factors associated with multimorbidity in Brazilian adults according to sex.

Methods

Cross-sectional population-based household survey carried out with Brazilian adults aged 18 years or older. The sampling strategy consisted of a three-stage conglomerate plan. The three stages were performed through simple random sampling. Data were collected through individual interviews. Multimorbidity was classified based on a list of 14 self-reported chronic diseases/conditions. Poisson regression analysis was performed to estimate the magnitude of the association between sociodemographic and lifestyle factors with the prevalence of multimorbidity stratified by sex.

Results

A total of 88,531 individuals were included. In absolute terms, the prevalence of multimorbidity was 29.4%. The frequency in men and women was 22.7 and 35.4%, respectively. Overall, multimorbidity was more prevalent among women, the older people, residents of the South and Southeast regions, urban area residents, former smokers, current smokers, physically inactive, overweight, and obese adults. Individuals with complete high school/incomplete higher education had a lower prevalence of multimorbidity than those with higher educational level. The associations between education and multimorbidity differed between sexes. In men, multimorbidity was inversely associated with the strata of complete middle school/incomplete high school and complete high school/incomplete higher education, while in women, the association between these variables was not observed. Physical inactivity was positively associated with a higher prevalence of multimorbidity only in men. An inverse association was verified between the recommended fruit and vegetable consumption and multimorbidity for the total sample and both sexes.

Conclusion

One in four adults had multimorbidity. Prevalence increased with increasing age, among women, and was associated with some lifestyles. Multimorbidity was significantly associated with educational level and physical inactivity only in men. The results suggest the need to adopt integrated strategies to reduce the magnitude of multimorbidity, specific by gender, including actions for health promotion, disease prevention, health surveillance and comprehensive health care in Brazil.

Low Vaccine Coverage and Factors Associated with Incomplete Childhood Immunization in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and Rural Groups, Central Brazil

Discrimination and limited access to healthcare services in remote areas can affect vaccination coverage. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate vaccination coverage for children living in quilombola communities and rural settlements in the central region of Brazil during their first year of life and to analyze the factors associated with incomplete vaccination. An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted on children born between 2015 and 2017. The percentage of children who received all vaccines recommended by the National Immunization Program in Brazil by 11 months and 29 days was used to calculate immunization coverage. Children who received the following vaccines were considered as having a complete basic vaccination schedule: one dose of BCG; three doses of Hepatitis B, of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DPT), of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and of Poliovirus (Polio); two doses of Rotavirus, of 10-valent pneumococcal (PCV10), and of Serogroup C meningococcal conjugate (MenC); and one dose of Yellow Fever (YF). Measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) and other doses recommended at or after 12 months were not included. Consolidated logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with incomplete vaccination coverage. Overall vaccination coverage was 52.8% (95% CI: 45.5-59.9%) and ranged from 70.4% for the Yellow Fever vaccine to 78.3% for the Rotavirus vaccine, with no significant differences between the quilombola and settler groups. Notably, the likelihood of incomplete general vaccination coverage was higher among children who did not receive a visit from a healthcare professional. Urgent strategies are required to achieve and ensure health equity for this unique and traditionally distinct group with low vaccination coverage.

Overview on and Contextual Determinants of Medical Residencies in North Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyze the scenario of medical residency programs (MRPs) in the north region of Brazil as well as the contextual determinants (socioeconomic, structural, and epidemiological) influencing the number of MRPs in this region. An ecological study was conducted using MRPs data from 2022. This study used multiple data sources. MRP indicators were described based on the Brazilian state and specialty. The dependent variable was the number of MRPs. The independent variables included sociodemographic, structural, and epidemiological factors. Poisson regression was performed to analyze the association between contextual variables and the number of MRPs. The results showed that only 3.6% of the municipalities had authorized MRPs. The idleness rate in the region was 46.0%, with family and community medicine as the specialties with the greatest idleness. The total density of authorized vacancies in the MRPs was 14.0 vacancies per 100,000 inhabitants. The models showed that with each increase of one unit of the vulnerability index (Socioeconomic Index in the Geographic Context for Health Studies-GeoSES), the number of MRPs increased, ranging from 8122 (p value < 0.001) to 11,138 (p value < 0.001). With each increase in undergraduate degrees in medicine, the number of MRPs increased by 0.945 (p value < 0.001). With each increase of 1 physician per 1000 population, the number of MRPs increased from 0.537 (p value < 0.001) to 0.845 (p value < 0.001). With each increase of one unit in general hospitals, specialized hospitals, teaching hospitals, and primary healthcare units, the number of MRPs increased by 0.176 (p value < 0.001), 0.168 (p value < 0.001), 0.022 (p value < 0.001) and 0.032 (p value < 0.001), respectively. Finally, with each increase of one death per 100,000 inhabitants, the overall mortality rate increased, ranging from 0.006 (p value < 0.001) to 0.022 (p value < 0.001). The study showed a low supply of MRPs in the northern region, a high rate of idleness, and important socioeconomic, structural, and epidemiological determinants of the number of MRPs.

Magnitude and factors associated with motor road traffic injuries in Brazil: Results from the National Health Survey, 2019

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the magnitude and factors associated with self-reported road traffic injuries (RTI) in Brazil.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study conducted using data from individuals aged 18 years or older, participants in the 2019 National Health Survey, a population-based conducted on 88,531 adult individuals in Brazil. Three indicators were analyzed: (i) Proportion (%) of individuals aged 18 years or older who were involved in RTI in the past 12 months; (ii) Proportion (%) of car drivers who were involved in RTI in the past 12 months; and (iii), Proportion (%) of motorcycle drivers who were involved in RTI in the past 12 months. In the inferential analysis, multiple Poisson regression was used to analyze the association between demographic and socioeconomic variables and RTI, stratified for the general population, population of car and motorcycle drivers.

RESULTS

The estimated prevalence of self-reported RTI in the past 12 months was 2.4%. The South, Southeast, Northeast, Central-West, and North regions of Brazil had prevalences of 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.7%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. The results also show that most developed regions (South and Southeast) showed the lowest prevalence's, the highest frequencies were observed in those with lower socioeconomic development levels (Central-West, North, and Northeast). The prevalence was also higher in the subgroup of motorcyclists when compared to car drivers. In the general sample, the Poisson model showed an association between male sex, younger age, low level of education, residing outside capitals and metropolitan regions, in the North, Northeast and South regions and the prevalence of RTI. In car drivers, similar associations were found, except for area of residence. In motorcycle drivers, young age, low level of education, living in urban areas were associated with increased prevalence of RTI.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of RTI is still high within the country, with disparities between regions, affecting more motorcyclists, young people, males, individuals with low education, and residents of the countryside.

Long-Term Symptoms after Mild Coronavirus Disease in Healthy Healthcare Professionals: A 12-Month Prospective Cohort Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed the course of human history and killed millions of people worldwide. Its long-term consequences remain uncertain. This study aimed to describe the short- and long-term symptoms of COVID-19 among individuals in Goiás, central Brazil, who experienced acute mild or non-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic. This prospective cohort study included 110 healthcare workers, 18 safety workers, and 19 administrative support workers, who were followed up for 12 months after the onset of COVID-19. Most participants were healthy adult female healthcare professionals. At the onset of infection, the major symptoms were headache, myalgia, nasal congestion, cough, coryza, anosmia, ageusia, sore throat, fatigue, diarrhea, and dyspnea. Furthermore, 20.3% of the participants had three or more COVID-19 symptoms that persisted for at least 12 months. These included coryza, congestion, hair loss, sore throat, headache, myalgia, cough, memory loss, anosmia, and fatigue. This study revealed a high prevalence of persistent symptoms of COVID-19 in healthy individuals from central Brazil, which may present an additional burden on healthcare services. Further studies are required to investigate the sequelae of COVID-19 over periods greater than 12 months.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Bacterial vaginosis and cervical human papillomavirus infection in young and adult women: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between bacterial vaginosis and cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in young and adult women.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis was based on the Prisma methodological guidelines. PubMed and Web of Science were searched using the following descriptors: "bacterial vaginosis and HPV", in June 2019. Articles published from 2012 to 2019 were included. Inclusion criteria were original studies that investigated the association between bacterial vaginosis and cervical HPV infection; articles published in English, Spanish or Portuguese; studies conducted in young and adult, non-pregnant, non-HIV-infected women; studies that used the Nugent criteria for the diagnosis of bacterial vaginosis and studies in which the detection of HPV used the polymerase chain reaction technique. Assembled data, odds ratio (OR) and respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated for the association between bacterial vaginosis and cervical HPV infection using random-effects models. A bilateral value of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULT

Six studies were selected for analysis and demonstrated association between bacterial vaginosis and cervical HPV infection (OR = 2.68; 95%CI: 1.64-4.40; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Bacterial vaginosis was considered a risk factor for cervical HPV infection, since women with bacterial vaginosis were more likely to be infected with HPV.

Epidemiology of tobacco use and nicotine dependence in truck drivers

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the epidemiology of tobacco use and nicotine dependence in a sample of truck drivers in Brazil.

METHODS

Between 2015 and 2016, a cross-sectional study was conducted on 624 truck drivers who operate on the BR-050 highway in Brazil. Participants were interviewed about sociodemographic data, occupational characteristics, mental health, behavioral data, and tobacco use. Then, the Fagerstrom test for nicotine dependence (FTND) was used to verify nicotine dependence in smoking truck drivers. Logistic regression and linear regression were also used to verify factors associated with tobacco use in the previous 30 days and nicotine dependence scores, respectively.

RESULTS

The prevalence of tobacco use among truck drivers was 21.1% (n = 132;95%CI: 18.1-24.5). Of the total number of smokers who responded to the FTND (n = 118; 89.4%), most had high/very high nicotinic dependence (68.6%; 95%CI: 59.8-76.3). Tobacco use was associated with absence of religion (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.60; 95%CI: 1.35-5.01), employment relationship of the contract (AOR = 1.98; 95%CI: 1.26-3.13); > 12 hours daily working time (AOR = 1.80; 95%CI: 1.09-2.98) and alcohol use in the previous 30 days (AOR = 2.92; 95%CI: 1.86-4.57). Irregular physical activity was associated with higher scores of nicotine dependence (β = 1.87; 95%CI: 0.55-3.19).

CONCLUSION

The results showed a high prevalence of tobacco use and high/very high nicotine dependence among the truck drivers.

Access and Use of Health Services by People with Diabetes from the Item Response Theory

The objective of this study was to analyze the indicators of access and use of health services in people with diabetes mellitus. This study used data from the National Health Survey, conducted in Brazil in 2013. The National Health Survey was carried out with adults aged 18 years or older residing in permanent private households in Brazil. Indicators from 492 individuals with self-reported diabetes mellitus living in the Central-West region of the country were analyzed. Item response theory was used to estimate the score for access to and use of health services. Multiple linear regression was used to analyze factors associated with scores of access and use of health services by people with diabetes mellitus. The mean score of access estimated by the item response theory and use estimated was 51.4, with the lowest score of zero (lowest access and use) and the highest 100 (highest access and use). Among the indicators analyzed, 74.6% reported having received medical care in the last 12 months and 46.4% reported that the last visit occurred in primary care. Only 18.9% had their feet examined and 29.3% underwent eye examinations. Individuals of mixed-race/skin color and those residing outside capital and metropolitan regions had lower access and use scores when compared to white individuals and residents of state capitals, respectively. The study shows several gaps in the indicators of access and use of health services by people with diabetes. People of mixed race/skin color and residents outside the capitals and metropolitan regions had lower scores for access and use, suggesting the need to increase health care in these groups.

Mortality Risk Factors for Coronavirus Infection in Hospitalized Adults in Brazil: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented high morbidity and mortality, with associated high socioeconomic costs. Brazil ranks third in the number of COVID-19 cases, behind only India and the United States.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze risk factors for mortality in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 in Brazil.

METHODS

Observational retrospective cohort study including data from all Brazilian states and regions. The study included information from 468,226 in-hospital patients from all regions of Brazil from 1 January 2021 to 31 July 2021. Data from the influenza epidemiological surveillance system were used. The participants were adults hospitalized with COVID-19. A Cox regression model was used to analyze factors associated with mortality in adults with COVID-19.

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality lethality was 37.5%. The risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality were older age, with a linear increase with increments in age, male sex, black or mixed race, low education level, comorbidities, use of ventilatory support, and living in the southeast, north, or northeast regions of the country.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results illustrate the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and reinforce that policies and practices to deal with this disease should focus on groups and regions with higher risk, whereas public policies should promote nonpharmacological measures and vaccination in the Brazilian population.

Reproductive Desire in Women Living with HIV/AIDS with Serodiscordant Partners

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with reproductive desire in a sample of women living with HIV/AIDS (WLHA) with serodiscordant partners.

STUDY DESIGN

Between September 2015 and August 2016, a cross-sectional study was conducted among 110 WLHA from HIV/AIDS treatment services and non-governmental organizations. An interview was conducted using a structured questionnaire to collect sociodemographic data, reproductive desire, and potential predictor variables. Poisson regression was used to analyze the factors associated with reproductive desire in the sample.

RESULTS

The prevalence of reproductive desire was 32.7% (95% Confidence Interval: % CI: 24.7-42.0%). In regression analysis, we observed an association between reproductive desire and the following variables: age < 30 years; relationship time < 2 years; reproductive desire for the partner; and absence of children.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of reproductive desire in the investigated sample was relatively high. Young age and reproductive desire for the partner were the main associated factors.

Estimate of the magnitude of risky and protective behaviors associated with road traffic injuries in capitals participating in the Life in Traffic Project of Brazil

BACKGROUND

Brazil occupies the fifth position in the ranking of the highest mortality rates due to RTI in the world. With the objective of promoting traffic safety and consequently reducing deaths, Brazil created the Life in Traffic Project (LTP). The main goal of LTP is reducing 50% of RTI deaths, by promoting interventions to tackle risk factors, such as driving under the influence of alcohol and excessive and/or inappropriate speed. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate the magnitude of risky and protective factors for RTI in capitals participating in the LTP in Brazil. We estimated these factors according to sociodemographic (age group, sex, education, race and, type of road user).

METHODS

A total of 5,922 car drivers and motorcyclists from 14 Brazilian capitals participating in the LTP were interviewed. Data collection was carried out in sobriety checkpoints at night and consisted of the administration of an interview and a breathalyzer test. Risky and protective behaviors associated with RTI were investigated. Covariates of the study were: age, sex, education, race and, type of road user. Poisson multiple regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between variables of interest.

RESULTS

The prevalence of individuals with positive blood alcohol concentration (BAC) was 6.3% and who reported driving after drinking alcohol in the last 30 days was 9.1%. The others risky behaviors reported were: driving at excessive speed on roads of 50 km/h, using a cell phone for calls while driving, using a cell phone to send or read calls while driving, running a red light. Use of seatbelts and helmets showed prevalence above 96,0% Use of seatbelts showed prevalence of 98.6% among car drivers, and helmet use was described by 96.6% of motorcycle drivers. Most risky behaviors were more prevalent in younger age groups (except BAC measurement higher in older participants), in males (except for cell phone use), in participants with higher education level and without a driver's license.

CONCLUSION

Excessive speed and driving under the influence of alcohol, defined as priorities within the LTP, need more consistent interventions, as they still have considerable prevalence in the cities investigated. The factors described such as cell phone usage and passing red traffic lights should also need to be prioritized as a focus on promoting traffic safety.

Risk factors for potentially inappropriate medication use in older adults: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Much of the knowledge on the use of potentially inappropriate medications (PIM) in older adults is derived from cross-sectional studies, with little known about the risk factors over time.

AIM

Longitudinal analysis was applied to estimate the occurrence and risk factors of PIM use among older adults in a 10-year follow-up.

METHOD

Longitudinal study with 418 older adult residents of a capital city of Central-West Brazil. The PIM were classified according to the Beers criteria 2019. The usage rate was calculated at baseline (2008) and at the 10-year follow-up moment (2018). Analysis of predictors (sociodemographic, self-rated health, hospitalization, number of comorbidities, polypharmacy, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and nutritional status) was performed using Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) models.

RESULTS

Mean age at baseline was 70.6 years (SD 7.1) and 76% were women; 221 older adults took part in the follow up. The rate of PIM use was 50.4% at baseline and 57.5% at the 10-year follow-up. Multiple analysis showed that PIM use in the cohort was statistically higher in the older adults with a history of hospitalization (RR_adj 1.20; 95% CI 1.01-1.40), with three or more diseases (RR_adj 1.41; 95% CI 1.14-1.74), with polypharmacy (RR_adj 1.81; 95% CI 1.47-2.24) and with diabetes mellitus (RR_adj 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.47).

CONCLUSION

A high level of potentially inappropriate medication use was observed, reaching 50% of the older adults, with a 7% increase in the prevalence over the 10-year follow-up period. Hospitalization, multimorbidities, polypharmacy and diabetes mellitus were associated with the use of these medications. Interventions for surveillance of the deprescribing process need to be encouraged to avoid potential harm caused by the use of medications.

Prevalence of diabetes mellitus according to associated factors in rural traditional populations in Goiás, Brazil: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To identify the prevalence of and factors associated with diabetes mellitus in rural traditional communities.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study carried out in 115 rural communities distributed in 45 municipalities in the state of Goiás, including: 13 river communities, 51 quilombolas and 63 agrarian reform settlements. Probabilistic sampling was performed, and participants were selected at random. The outcome variable was self-reported diabetes mellitus, while exposure variables were sociodemographic, lifestyle, health conditions and access to health services. Multiple regression was used to determine the association between study variables.

RESULTS

Among the 2,537 participants, the overall prevalence of diabetes was 9.8%, with 13.5% in river dwellers, 10.0% in quilombolas and 9.3% in settlers. Factors associated with diabetes were negative self-perception of health, being a former smoker, high blood pressure, hypercholesterolemia, and living in a river community.

CONCLUSION

The results reinforce the need to strengthen strategies for the prevention and control of diabetes and its complications in rural populations, especially among river dwellers.

Efficacy and Safety of BCG Revaccination With M. bovis BCG Moscow to Prevent COVID-19 Infection in Health Care Workers: A Randomized Phase II Clinical Trial

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, which is widely used to protect children against tuberculosis, can also improve immune response against viral infections. This unicentric, randomized-controlled clinical trial assessed the efficacy and safety of revaccination with BCG Moscow in reducing the positivity and symptoms of COVID-19 in health care workers (HCWs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. HCWs who had negative COVID-19 IgM and IgG and who dedicated at least eight hours per week in facilities that attended to individuals suspected of having COVID-19 were included in the study and were followed for 7, 15, 30, 60, and 180 days by telemedicine. The HCWs were randomly allocated to a revaccinated with BCG group, which received the BCG vaccine, or an unvaccinated group. Revaccination with BCG Moscow was found to be safe, and its efficacy ranged from 30.0% (95.0%CI -78.0 to 72.0%) to 31.0% (95.0%CI -74.0 to 74.0%). Mycobacterium bovis BCG Moscow did not induce NK cell activation at 15–20 days post-revaccination. As hypothesized, revaccination with BCG Moscow was associated with a lower incidence of COVID-19 positivity, though the results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies should be carried out to assess whether revaccination with BCG is able to protect HCWs against COVID-19. The protocol of this clinical trial was registered on August 5th, 2020, at REBEC (Registro Brasileiro de Ensaios Clínicos, RBR-4kjqtg - ensaiosclinicos.gov.br/rg/RBR-4kjqtg/1) and the WHO (# U1111-1256-3892). The clinical trial protocol was approved by the Comissão Nacional de ética de pesquisa- CONEP (CAAE 31783720.0.0000.5078).

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalência de diabetes mellitus autorreferido e fatores associados em população rural e tradicional de Goiás: estudo transversal

RESUMO: Objetivo: Identificar a prevalência e os fatores associados ao diabetes mellitus em comunidades rurais. Métodos: Estudo transversal desenvolvido em 115 comunidades rurais distribuídas em 45 municípios do Estado de Goiás, sendo: 13 ribeirinhas, 51 quilombolas e 63 assentamentos de reforma agrária. Realizou-se amostragem probabilística, e os participantes foram selecionados de forma aleatória. A variável desfecho foi diabetes mellitus autorreferido, enquanto as de exposição foram sociodemográficas, estilo de vida, condições de saúde e acesso a serviços de saúde. Utilizou-se regressão múltipla para verificar a associação entre variáveis de estudo. Resultados: Entre os 2.537 participantes, a prevalência geral de diabetes foi de 9,8%, sendo 13,5% nos ribeirinhos, 10,0% nos quilombolas e 9,3% nos assentados. Os fatores associados ao diabetes foram a autopercepção negativa de saúde, ser ex-fumante, hipertensão arterial, hipercolesterolemia e residir em comunidade ribeirinha. Conclusão: Os resultados reforçam a necessidade de fortalecer estratégias para prevenção e controle da diabetes e suas complicações em populações rurais, especialmente entre os ribeirinhos.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Zika virus infection and microcephaly: spatial analysis and socio-environmental determinants in a region of high Aedes aegypti infestation in the Central-West Region of Brazil

Background

More than 5 years after the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic, Zika infection remains a major concern in regions with high Aedes infestation. The objectives of this study were (i) to identify clusters of ZIKV infection and microcephaly, and/or central nervous system (CNS) alterations associated with congenital infection during the epidemic peak in 2016 and subsequently, in 2017 and 2018; (ii) to measure the non-spatial correlation between ZIKV infection and microcephaly and/or CNS alterations associated with congenital infection; and (iii) to analyse the sociodemographic/economic, health, and environmental determinants associated with the incidence of ZIKV in a region of high infestation by Aedes aegypti in the Central-West Region of Brazil.

Methods

This ecological study analysed 246 municipalities in the state of Goiás (6.9 million inhabitants). The data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (ZIKV cases) and the Public Health Event Registry (microcephaly and/or CNS alterations associated with congenital infection). Incidence rates and prevalence of ZIKA infection were smoothed by an empirical Bayesian estimator (LEbayes), producing the local empirical Bayesian rate (LEBR). In the spatial analysis, ZIKV infection and microcephaly cases were georeferenced by the municipality of residence for 2016 and grouped for 2017 and 2018. Global Moran's I and the Hot Spot Analysis tool (Getis-Ord Gi* statistics) were used to analyse the spatial autocorrelation and clusters of ZIKV infection and microcephaly, respectively. A generalised linear model from the Poisson family was used to assess the association between ecological determinants and the smoothing incidence rate of ZIKV infection.

Results

A total of 9892 cases of acute ZIKV infection and 121 cases of microcephaly were confirmed. The mean LEBR of the ZIKV infection in the 246 municipalities was 22.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2016, and 10.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2017 and 2018. The LEBR of the prevalence rate of microcephaly and/or CNS alterations associated with congenital infection was 7 cases/10,000 live births in 2016 and 2 cases/10,000 live births during 2017–2018. Hotspots of ZIKV infection and microcephaly cases were identified in the capital and neighbouring municipalities in 2016, with new clusters in the following years. In a multiple regression Poisson analysis, ZIKV infection was associated with higher population density, the incidence of dengue, Aedes larvae infestation index, and average rainfall. The important determinant of ZIKV infection incidence reduction was the increase in households attended by endemic disease control agents.

Conclusions

Our analyses were able to capture, in a more granular way, aspects that make it possible to inform public managers of the sentinel areas identified in the post-epidemic hotspots.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06805-1.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal trend and spatial distribution of syphilis in pregnancy and congenital syphilis in Goiás, Brazil, 2007-2017: an ecological study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze temporal trend and spatial distribution of syphilis in pregnancy and congenital syphilis in Goiás State, Brazil, between 2007 and 2017.

METHODS

This was an ecological time series and spatial distribution study with data obtained from the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System. Prais-Winsten Regression was used to analyze indicator trends by health macro-region. Descriptive spatial analysis was performed to verify case distribution in three different years in the period.

RESULTS

Between 2007 and 2017, 7,679 cases of syphilis in pregnancy and 1,554 congenital syphilis cases were reported. A rising trend was found in the rates of syphilis in pregnancy (annual percent change [APC] = 18.0 - 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 15.3;20.8) as well as in congenital syphilis rates (APC=16.8 - 95%CI 20.1;33.8); and a 326% increase in the number of municipalities with a congenital syphilis incidence rate >0.5/1,000 live births.

CONCLUSION

Growth in syphilis in pregnancy and congenital syphilis detection rates was identified, as was growth in the number of municipalities reporting cases.

Prevalence and factors associated with arterial hypertension in adults living in Senador Canedo, Goiás, Brazil: a population-based study, 2016

OBJECTIVE

To estimate prevalence and factors associated with hypertension in adults in Senador Canedo, Goiás, Brazil, in 2016.

METHODS

This was cross-sectional survey, with three-stage cluster sampling. A questionnaire was applied and weight, height, waist circumference, blood pressure and total cholesterol levels were measured. Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

RESULTS

Hypertension prevalence was 23.6% (95%CI - 19.3;28.6) among the 709 participants. The associated factors were: sedentarism (PR=1.7 - 95%CI% 1.1;2.5); enlarged waist circumference (PR=5.9 - 95%CI 3.6;9.6); hypercholesterolemia (PR=2.6 - 95%CI 1.3;5.2); and age ≥60 years (PR=2.9 - 95%CI 1.3;6.2).

CONCLUSION

Hypertension prevalence was lower than that described for Brazil as a whole in 2013. Physical inactivity, accumulated abdominal fat and age were factors associated with hypertension.

Magnitude and temporal trend of leprosy indicators in Goiás, Brazil: an ecological study 2001-2017

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the trend of leprosy indicators in Goiás between 2001 and 2017.

METHODS

An ecological time series study was conducted. Leprosy morbidity and operational indicators were calculated using Notifiable Health Conditions Information System data. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analysis.

RESULTS

There was a falling trend in the detection rate in the general population (Annual Percent Change [APC] = -6.8 - 95%CI -8.2;-5.4) and in children under 15 years old (APC = -7.2 - 95%CI -8.5;-5.9); a rising trend in the proportion of grade 2 disability (APC = 3.7 - 95%CI 2.0;5.3) and in the proportion of examined physical disability (APC = 0.6 - 95%CI 0.3;0.8); healing and examined contacts proportions were stable.

CONCLUSION

Detection rates decreased while the proportions of grade 2 physical disability and examined physical disability increased.

Performance of family health teams for tackling chronic diseases in a state of the Amazon

The most common cause of death worldwide is noncommunicable diseases. A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the adequacy of the work process among family health teams and compare differences in regional adequacy in the state of Tocantins, in the Amazonian Region, Brazil. Categorical principal components analysis was used, and scores of each principal component extracted in the analysis were compared among health regions in Tocantins. A post hoc analysis was performed to compare the heath region pairs. The adequacy of family health teams’ work process was evaluated with respect to the Strategic Action Plan to Tackle NCDs. The results showed that the family health teams performed actions according to the Strategic Action Plan to Tackle NCDs. However, overall, the adequacy percentages of these actions according to the axes of the Plan are very uneven in Tocantins, with large variations among health regions. The family health teams in the Bico do Papagaio (Region 1), Médio Norte Araguaia (Region 2), Cantão (Region 4) and Capim Dourado (Region 5) regions have adequacy percentages ≥ 50% with the Strategic Action Plan to Tackle NCDs, whereas all other regions have percentages <50%. Health teams perform surveillance actions, health promotion, and comprehensive care for NCDs in accordance with the guidelines of the Strategic Action Plan to Tackle NCDs. The challenge of NCDs in primary care requires a care model that is tailored to users’ needs and has the power to reduce premature mortality and its determinants.

Potentially inappropriate medications for the elderly: Incidence and impact on mortality in a cohort ten-year follow-up

INTRODUCTION

Pharmacological therapy plays an important role in disease control in the elderly; unfortunately, this comes with a high prevalence in the use of medications classified as potentially inappropriate.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the incidence, risk factors, and survival of elderly people using potentially inappropriate medications (PIM).

METHOD

A ten-year follow-up assessment of elderly participants residing in a capital of Central Brazil was conducted. The initial assessment (baseline) included 418 elderly people. Data were collected through home interviews guided by a questionnaire covering socioeconomic, demographic, living conditions, and health variables. The medication information obtained comprised active ingredient, dosage, route, and regimen for the medications. The PIMs were classified according to 2019 Beers Criteria. The analyses were performed using STATA 15.0. For survival analysis, a Cox Regression was performed with the respective Kaplan Meier curve.

RESULTS

The incidence of PIM was 44.1 cases (95% CI: 35.2-54.7) per 1,000 people a year. The most used PIMs were nifedipine, glibenclamide, and sodium diclofenac. The risk factors were polypharmacy (aRR: 3.00; 95% CI: 1.31-6.88) and diabetes mellitus (aRR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.03-2.39). We identified no statistically significant association between survival and the use of PIM.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the high consumption of PIM among the elderly causing polypharmacy risks. Health professionals working in drug treatment need to be alert to polypharmacy risks to ensure the rational use of medications to prevent adverse reactions and other health problems.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

The incidence of chronic pain following Cesarean section and associated risk factors: A cohort of women followed up for three months

BACKGROUND

Chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) is one of the post-surgical complications of a Cesarean section. Despite the high rates of Cesarean section worldwide, the incidence of CPSP and the risk factors for this condition remain relatively unknown. The objective of this study was to calculate the incidence of CPSP in women submitted to Cesarean section and to analyze the associated risk factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective cohort of 621 women undergoing Cesarean section was recruited preoperatively. Potential presurgical (sociodemographic, clinical and lifestyle-related characteristics) and post-surgical risk factors (the presence and intensity of pain) risk factors were analyzed. Pain was measured at 24 hours and 7, 30, 60 and 90 days after surgery. Following discharge from hospital, data were collected by telephone. The outcome measure was self-reported pain three months after a Cesarean section. The risk factors for chronic pain were analyzed using the log-binomial regression model (a generalized linear model).

RESULTS

A total of 462 women were successfully contacted 90 days following surgery. The incidence of CPSP was 25.5% (95%CI: 21.8-29.7). Risk factors included presurgical anxiety (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.03; 95%CI: 1.01-1.05), smoking (adjusted RR 2.22; 95%CI: 1.27-3.88) and severe pain in the early postoperative period (adjusted RR 2.79; 95%CI: 1.29-6.00).

CONCLUSION

One in four women submitted to Cesarean section may develop CPSP; however, the risk factors identified here are modifiable and preventable. Preventive strategies directed towards controlling anxiety, reducing smoking during pregnancy and managing pain soon after hospital discharge are recommended.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Retrospective study of immunization errors reported in an online Information System

Objective:

to analyze the immunization errors reported in an online Information System.

Method:

retrospective study conducted with data from the Adverse Event Following Immunization Surveillance Information System. Immunization errors were analyzed with respect to demographic characteristics and the vaccination process. Frequencies and error incidence rates have been calculated. Binomial and chi-square tests were used to verify differences in the proportions of the variables.

Results:

501 errors were analyzed, the majority involving routine doses (92.6%), without Adverse Event Following Immunization (90.6%) and in children under five years old (55.7%). The most frequent types of errors were inadequacy in the indication of the immunobiological (26.9%), inadequate interval between doses (18.2%) and error in the administration technique (14.2%). The overall error incidence rate was 4.05/100,000 doses applied; the highest incidences of routine vaccines were for human rabies vaccine, human papillomavirus and triple viral; the incidence rate of errors with Adverse Events Following Immunization was 0.45/100,000 doses applied.

Conclusion:

it was found that immunization errors are a reality to be faced by the health systems, but they are amenable to prevention through interventions such as the adoption of protocols, checklists and permanent education in health.

The quality of primary care services, vocational training and the More Doctors Program in a health region of southwest Goiás

INTRODUCTION

Primary health care must assume the centrality of care so that health systems address and solve the health needs of the population.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the quality of primary health care from the perspective of health professionals, including those associated with the Mais Médicos Brasil Program, verifying associations between quality of services and professional qualification.

METHODOLOGY

A cross-sectional study where interviews with health professionals were carried out. The quality of care was measured by means of interviews about the experience of doctors and nurses with the services, using the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCATool-Brasil). The presence and the extension of the primary health care attributes of the Southwest II region of Goiás state, constituted by 10 municipalities, were investigated.

RESULTS

The lowest APS Overall Score was for the first contact access attribute (3.71). The bivariate analysis showed statistical difference between the variables profession and the essential, derived and general scores. Doctors of the More Doctors Program had higher average scores (7,68 essential; 9,11 derivative; 8,04 general) when compared to other medical professionals and nurses.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight the importance of permanent evaluation of health services, especially primary care, due to its importance and centrality to the organization of other levels of care. Only from this monitoring is possible a better management orientation for strategic and resolutive investments.

Survival Analysis of Hospitalized Elderly People with Fractures in Brazil Over One Year

Objective: This study analyzes the causes of death, survival, and other related factors in hospitalized elderly people with fractures over the course of one year. Methods: We followed 376 fracture patients for one year in a prospective cohort study to a reference hospital in central Brazil. The Cox regression model was used to analyze factors associated with survival. Results: The results indicate that the one-year mortality rate was high (22.9%). The independent factors linked to lower overall survival were as follows: patients aged ≥80 years with previous intensive care unit (ICU) admission and presence of comorbidities (diabetes mellitus [DM] and dementia). Conclusion: Our study results may contribute to a better understanding of the impact of fractures on the elderly population and reinforce the need to oversee age-groups, diabetic patients, and patients with complications during hospitalization.

Institutional strategies as a mechanism to rationalize the negative effects of the judicialization of access to medicine in Brazil

Background

Recently, the Executive Branch and Judiciary in Brazil increased spending due to larger numbers of lawsuits that forced the State to provide health goods and services. This phenomenon, known as health judicialization, has created challenges and required the Executive Branch and Judiciary to create institutional strategies such as technical chambers and departments to reduce the social, economic and political distortions caused by this phenomenon. This study aims to evaluate the effects of two institutional strategies deployed by a Brazilian municipality in order to cope with the economic, social and political distortions caused by the phenomenon of health judicialization regarding access to medicines.

Methods

A longitudinal study was carried out in a capital in the Central-West Region of Brazil. A sample of 511 lawsuits was analyzed. The variables were placed into three groups: the sociodemographic characteristics and the plaintiffs’ disease, the characteristics of the claimed medical products and the institutional strategies. To analyze the effect of the interventions on the total cost of the medicines in the lawsuits, bivariate and multivariate linear regressions with variance were performed. For the categorical outcomes, Poisson regressions were performed with robust variance, using a significance level of 5%.

Results

A reduction in the costs of medicines in the lawsuits and of the requests for medicines within the SUS formulary was verified after the deployment of the Department of Assessment of Nonstandardized Medicines (DAMNP) and the Technical Chamber of Health Assessment (CATS); an increase in processed prescriptions from the Brazilian Universal Health System was observed after the deployment of the CATS; and an increase in medicines outside the SUS formulary without a therapeutic alternative was verified after the CATS.

Conclusion

The institutional strategies deployed were important tools to reduce the high costs of the medicines in the lawsuits. In addition, they represented a step forward for the State, provided a benefit to society and indicated a potential path for the health and justice systems of other countries that also face problems caused by the judicialization of health.