Associations Between COVID-19 Alcohol Policy Restrictions and Alcohol Sales in British Columbia: Variation by Area-Based Deprivation Level

OBJECTIVE

Government alcohol sales data were used to investigate associations between estimates of per capita age 15+ alcohol consumption, policy restrictiveness, and area-level deprivation.

METHOD

We analyzed weekly consumption data (expressed as per capita age 15+ Canadian standard drinks [13.45 g of pure ethanol]) collected from all 89 local health areas in British Columbia, Canada, between April 2017 and April 2021. Our analyses were stratified by outlet type (total, on-premise, and off-premise). Our intervention was alcohol policy restrictiveness (operationalized by the Restrictiveness of Alcohol Policy Index), and our moderator was area-level deprivation (Canadian Index of Multiple Deprivation). The Restrictiveness of Alcohol Policy Index included hours of trading, the number of people permitted on site for on-premise venues, the proportion of outlets in operation, and the extent of permissible home delivery.

RESULTS

Higher policy restrictiveness was associated with decreased consumption across all outlet types (ps < .001): when the most restrictive policies were implemented, consumption was reduced by 9% and 100% in off- and on-premise outlets, respectively. Area-based deprivation level modified the effect of policy restriction on per capita alcohol consumption (ps < .007): for total and off-premise consumption, the decrease was greatest among more economically deprived areas (ps < .001); for on-premise outlets, areas with a high proportion of racial and ethnic minorities increased their consumption (ps < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-specific policy restrictions implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with reduced consumption. However, the magnitude and direction of change was moderated by area-based deprivation level, albeit inconsistently across various deprivation measures.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).

Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden

Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.

How laws affect the perception of norms: Empirical evidence from the lockdown

Laws not only affect behavior due to changes in material payoffs, but they may also change the perception individuals have of social norms, either by shifting them directly or by providing information on these norms. Using detailed daily survey data and exploiting the introduction of lockdown measures in the UK in the context of the COVID-19 health crisis, we provide causal evidence that the law drastically changed the perception of the norms regarding social distancing behaviors. We show that this effect of laws on perceived norms is mostly driven by an informational channel and that the intervention made perceptions of social norms converge to the actual prevalent norm.

Community engagement in the prevention and control of COVID-19: Insights from Vietnam

Introduction

Community engagement (CE) is an effective public health strategy for improving health outcomes. There is limited published knowledge about effective approaches to CE in ensuring effective responses to COVID-19 throughout lockdowns, travel restrictions and social distancing. In this paper, we contribute to bridging this gap by highlighting experience of CE in Vietnam, specifically focusing on migrant workers in Vietnam.

Methods

A cross-sectional qualitative study design was used with qualitative data collection was carried out during August-October 2020. Two districts were purposefully selected from two large industrial zones. Data was collected using in-depth interviews (n = 36) with individuals and households, migrants and owners of dormitories, industrial zone factory representatives, community representatives and health authorities. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis approach. The study received ethics approval from the Hanoi University Institutional Review Board.

Results

The government’s response to COVID-19 was spearheaded by the multi-sectoral National Steering Committee for the Prevention and Control of COVID-19, chaired by the Vice Prime Minister and comprised different members from 23 ministries. This structure was replicated throughout the province and local levels and all public and private organizations. Different activities were carried out by local communities, following four key principles of infection control: early detection, isolation, quarantine and hospitalization. We found three key determinants of engagement of migrant workers with COVID-19 prevention and control: availability of resources, appropriate capacity strengthening, transparent and continuous communication and a sense of trust in government legitimacy.

Discussion and conclusion

Our results support the current literature on CE in infection control which highlights the importance of context and suggests that future CE should consider five key components: multi-sectoral collaboration with a whole-of-community approach to strengthen governance structures with context-specific partnerships; mobilization of resources and decentralization of decision making to encourage self-reliance and building of local capacity; capacity building through training and supervision to local institutions; transparent and clear communication of health risks and sensitization of local communities to improve compliance and foster trust in the government measures; and understanding the urgent needs ensuring of social security and engaging all parts of the community, specifically the vulnerable groups.

Not far enough: Public health policies to combat COVID-19 in Mexico's states

BACKGROUND

Mexican state governments' actions are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic within the country. However, the type, rigor and pace of implementation of public policies have varied considerably between states. Little is known about the subnational (state) variation policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We collected daily information on public policies designed to inform the public, as well as to promote distancing, and mask use. The policies analyzed were: School Closure, Workplace Closure, Cancellation of Public Events, Restrictions on Gatherings, Stay at Home Order, Public Transit Suspensions, Information Campaigns, Internal Travel Controls, International Travel Controls, Use of Face Masks We use these data to create a composite index to evaluate the adoption of these policies in the 32 states. We then assess the timeliness and rigor of the policies across the country, from the date of the first case, February 27, 2020.

RESULTS

The national average in the index during the 143 days of the pandemic was 41.1 out of a possible 100 points on our index. Nuevo León achieved the highest performance (50.4); San Luis Potosí the lowest (34.1). The differential between the highest versus the lowest performance was 47.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identifies variability and heterogeneity in how and when Mexican states implemented policies to contain COVID-19. We demonstrate the absence of a uniform national response and widely varying stringency of state responses. We also show how these responses are not based on testing and do not reflect the local burden of disease. National health system stewardship and a coordinated, timely, rigorous response to the pandemic did not occur in Mexico but is desirable to contain COVID-19.

The effect of the synchronized multi-dimensional policies on imported COVID-19 curtailment in China

As countries are lifting restrictions and resuming international travels, the rising risk of COVID-19 importation remains concerning, given that the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be transmitted unintentionally through the global transportation network. To explore and assess the effective strategies for curtailing the epidemic risk from international importation nationwide, we evaluated "the joint prevention and control" mechanism, which made up of 19 containment policies, on how it impacted the change of medical observation and detection time from border arrival to laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 in its burst in China. Based on 1,314 epidemiological-survey cases from February 29 to May 25, 2020, we found that the synchronized approach of implementing multi-dimensional interventional policies, such as a centralized quarantine and nucleic acid testing (NAT), flight service adjustment and border closure, effectively facilitate early identification of infected case. Specifically, the implementation of the international flight service reduction was found to be associated with a reduction of the mean intervals of diagnosis from arrival to lab-confirmation by 0.44 days maximally, and the border closure was associated with a reduction of the diagnosis interval of imported cases by 0.69 days, from arrival to laboratory confirmation. The study suggests that a timely and synchronized implementation of multi-dimensional policies is compelling in preventing domestic spreading from importation.

When lockdown policies amplify social inequalities in COVID-19 infections: evidence from a cross-sectional population-based survey in France

BACKGROUND

Significant differences in COVID-19 incidence by gender, class and race/ethnicity are recorded in many countries in the world. Lockdown measures, shown to be effective in reducing the number of new cases, may not have been effective in the same way for all, failing to protect the most vulnerable populations. This survey aims to assess social inequalities in the trends in COVID-19 infections following lockdown.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey conducted among the general population in France in April 2020, during COVID-19 lockdown. Ten thousand one hundred one participants aged 18-64, from a national cohort who lived in the three metropolitan French regions most affected by the first wave of COVID-19. The main outcome was occurrence of possible COVID-19 symptoms, defined as the occurrence of sudden onset of cough, fever, dyspnea, ageusia and/or anosmia, that lasted more than 3 days in the 15 days before the survey. We used multinomial regression models to identify social and health factors related to possible COVID-19 before and during the lockdown.

RESULTS

In all, 1304 (13.0%; 95% CI: 12.0-14.0%) reported cases of possible COVID-19. The effect of lockdown on the occurrence of possible COVID-19 was different across social hierarchies. The most privileged class individuals saw a significant decline in possible COVID-19 infections between the period prior to lockdown and during the lockdown (from 8.8 to 4.3%, P = 0.0001) while the decline was less pronounced among working class individuals (6.9% before lockdown and 5.5% during lockdown, P = 0.03). This differential effect of lockdown remained significant after adjusting for other factors including history of chronic disease. The odds of being infected during lockdown as opposed to the prior period increased by 57% among working class individuals (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.00-2.48). The same was true for those engaged in in-person professional activities during lockdown (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.03-2.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Lockdown was associated with social inequalities in the decline in COVID-19 infections, calling for the adoption of preventive policies to account for living and working conditions. Such adoptions are critical to reduce social inequalities related to COVID-19, as working-class individuals also have the highest COVID-19 related mortality, due to higher prevalence of comorbidities.

Understanding how communities respond to COVID-19: experiences from the Orthodox Jewish communities of Antwerp city

BACKGROUND

The importance of community involvement in the response against disease outbreaks has been well established. However, we lack insights into local communities' experiences in coping with the current COVID-19 pandemic. This study explored both the impact of, and response to, COVID-19 within the Orthodox Jewish communities of Antwerp (Belgium) during the first lockdown period (March 2020 - May 2020).

METHODS

We conducted an explorative qualitative study using a participatory approach. First, we performed a community mapping to identify relevant stakeholders. Through the active involvement of a community advisory board and based on qualitative interviews with key-informants and community members, we elicited lived experiences, attitudes, and perceptions towards COVID-19. Interviews were conducted both face-to-face and using online web conferencing technology. Data were analyzed inductively according to the principles of thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Government-issued outbreak control measures presented context-specific challenges to the Orthodox Jewish communities in Antwerp. They related mainly to the remote organization of religious life, and practicing physical distancing in socially and culturally strongly connected communities. Existing community resources were rapidly mobilized to adapt to the outbreak and to self-organize response initiatives within communities. The active involvement of community and religious leaders in risk communication proved to be of great importance to facilitate the coverage and uptake of pandemic control measures while protecting essential community values and traditions. Creating bottom-up and community-adapted communication strategies, including addressing language barriers and involving Rabbis in the dissemination of prevention messages, fostered a feeling of trust in government's response measures. However, unmet information and prevention needs were also identified, such as the need for inclusive communication by public authorities and the need to mitigate the negative effects of stigmatization.

CONCLUSION

The experiences of Orthodox Jewish communities in Antwerp demonstrate a valuable example of a feasible community-centered approach to health emergencies. Increasing the engagement of communities in local decision-making and governance structures remains a key strategy to respond to unmet information and prevention needs.

Decreased dengue transmission in migrant worker populations in Singapore attributable to SARS-CoV-2 quarantine measures

BACKGROUND

We examined the impact of SARS-CoV-2 social distancing and quarantine policies on dengue transmission in the general and migrant worker populations in Singapore.

METHODS

We utilized all nationally reported dengue cases in the general and migrant worker populations from 1 January 2013 to 31 May 2020. A difference-in-difference identification strategy was used to determine the effects of social distancing and quarantine policies on reported dengue case counts over time, whilst controlling for weather patterns, seasonality, age and population size.

RESULTS

A reduction of 4.8 dengue cases per age band among migrant workers was attributable to quarantine policies, corresponding to a total reduction of around 432 reported dengue cases over 10 weeks. In the general working population, an increase of 14.5 dengue cases per age band was observed, which corresponds to a total increase of around 1450 reported dengue cases in the same time period. There is an expected relative risk reduction in dengue transmission for the migrant worker population at 0.635 due to quarantine policy and a relative risk increase for the general working population due to social distancing policies at 0.685.

CONCLUSIONS

Migrant workers experienced a reduced risk of dengue when they were confined to their dormitories as part of the COVID-19 social distancing measures. Our study highlights the vulnerability of migrant workers under normal working conditions.

Pitfalls of exceptions for COVID-19 travel quarantine: lessons from a dignitary visit to Thailand

A dignitary from a European country made an official visit to Thailand in November 2020. Due to the nature of this visit, a standard 14-day quarantine was not implemented. After a series of meetings with diplomats and hotel staffers, the dignitary was diagnosed with COVID-19. Here, we detailed the transmission and the genomic investigation from the visit, presenting the factors that need to be considered when a standard quarantine was waivered.

Effects of Social Distancing Measures during the First Epidemic Wave of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Infection, Greece

Greece imposed a nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to mitigate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during the first epidemic wave. We conducted a survey on age-specific social contact patterns to assess effects of physical distancing measures and used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to simulate the epidemic. Because multiple distancing measures were implemented simultaneously, we assessed their overall effects and the contribution of each measure. Before measures were implemented, the estimated basic reproduction number (R₀) was 2.38 (95% CI 2.01-2.80). During lockdown, daily contacts decreased by 86.9% and R₀ decreased by 81.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71.8%-86.0%); each distancing measure decreased R₀ by 10%-24%. By April 26, the attack rate in Greece was 0.12% (95% CrI 0.06%-0.26%), one of the lowest in Europe, and the infection fatality ratio was 1.12% (95% CrI 0.55%-2.31%). Multiple social distancing measures contained the first epidemic wave in Greece.

The Impact of COVID-19 Stay-At-Home Orders on Health Behaviors in Adults

OBJECTIVE

Stay-at-home orders in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have forced abrupt changes to daily routines. This study assessed lifestyle changes across different BMI classifications in response to the global pandemic.

METHODS

The online survey targeting adults was distributed in April 2020 and collected information on dietary behaviors, physical activity, and mental health. All questions were presented as "before" and "since" the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

In total, 7,753 participants were included; 32.2% of the sample were individuals with normal weight, 32.1% had overweight, and 34.0% had obesity. During the pandemic, overall scores for healthy eating increased (P < 0.001), owing to less eating out and increased cooking (P < 0.001). Sedentary leisure behaviors increased, while time spent in physical activity (absolute time and intensity adjusted) declined (P < 0.001). Anxiety scores increased 8.78 ± 0.21 during the pandemic, and the magnitude of increase was significantly greater in people with obesity (P ≤ 0.01). Weight gain was reported in 27.5% of the total sample compared with 33.4% in participants with obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced significant health effects, well beyond the virus itself. Government mandates together with fear of contracting the virus have significantly impacted lifestyle behaviors alongside declines in mental health. These deleterious impacts have disproportionally affected individuals with obesity.

Lockdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic: What is the endgame?

An overall long-term strategy for managing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is presented. This strategy will need to be maintained until herd immunity is achieved, hopefully through vaccination rather than natural infection. We suggest that a pure test-trace-isolate strategy is likely not practicable in most countries, and a degree of social distancing, ranging up to full lockdown, is the main public-health tool to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Guided by reliable surveillance data, distancing should be continuously optimised down to the lowest sustainable level that guarantees a low and stable infection rate in order to balance its wide-ranging negative effects on public health. The qualitative mixture of social-distancing measures also needs to be carefully optimised in order to minimise social costs.

Control of COVID-19 in Australia through quarantine: the role of special health accommodation (SHA) in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND

The first COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Australia on 25 January 2020. Initial epidiemiology showed that the majority of cases were in returned travellers from overseas. One aspect of Public Health response was to introduce compulsory 14 day quarantine for all travellers returning to New South Wales (NSW) by air or sea in Special Health Accommodation (SHA). We aim to outline the establishment of a specialised health quarantine accommodation service in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and describe the first month of COVID-19 screening.

METHODS

The SHA was established with a comprehensive governance structure, remote clinical management through Royal Prince Alfred Virtual Hospital (rpavirtual) and site management with health care workers, NSW Police and accommodation staff.

RESULTS

From 29 March to 29 April 2020, 373 returning travellers were admitted to the SHA from Sydney Airport. 88 (26.1%) of those swabbed were positive for SARS-CoV 2. The day of diagnosis of COVID-19 varied from Day 1 to Day 13, with 63.6% (n = 56) of these in the first week of quarantine. 50% of the people in the SHA were referred to rpavirtual for ongoing clinical management. Seven people required admission to hospital for ongoing clinical care.

CONCLUSION

The Public Health response to COVID-19 in Australia included early and increased case detection through testing, tracing of contacts of confirmed cases, social distancing and prohibition of gatherings. In addition to these measures, the introduction of mandated quarantine for travellers to Australia was integral to the successful containment of COVID-19 in NSW and Australia through the prevention of transmission locally and interstate from returning travellers.

The Use of Digital Tools to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparative Retrospective Study of Six Countries

BACKGROUND

Since the COVID-19 outbreak began in Wuhan, China, countries worldwide have been forced to take unprecedented measures to combat it. While some countries are still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, others have fared better and have re-established relative normalcy quickly. The rapid transmission rate of the virus has shown a greater need for efficient and technologically modern containment measures. The use of digital tools to facilitate strict containment measures in countries that have fared well against the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked both interest and controversy.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we compare the precautions taken against the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and Italy, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, particularly related to the use of digital tools for contact tracing, and propose policies that could be used in the United States for future COVID-19 waves or pandemics.

METHODS

COVID-19 death rate data were obtained from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), accessed through the Our World in Data database, and were evaluated based on population size per 100,000 people from December 31, 2019, to September 6, 2020. All policies and measures enacted were obtained from their respective governmental websites.

RESULTS

We found a strong association between lower death rates per capita and countries that implemented early mask use and strict border control measures that included mandatory quarantine using digital tools. There is a significant difference in the number of deaths per 100,000 when comparing Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore with the United States, Spain, and Italy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our research, it is evident that early intervention with the use of digital tools had a strong correlation with the successful containment of COVID-19. Infection rates and subsequent deaths in Italy, Spain, and the United States could have been much lower with early mask use and, more importantly, timely border control measures using modern digital tools. Thus, we propose that the United States execute the following national policies should a public health emergency be declared: (1) immediately establish a National Command responsible for enacting strict mandatory guidelines enforced by federal and state governments, including national mask use; (2) mandate civilian cooperation with health officials in contact tracing and quarantine orders; and (3) require incoming travelers to the United States and those quarantined to download a contact tracing app. We acknowledge the countries we studied differ in their cultures, political systems, and reporting criteria for COVID-19 deaths. Further research may need to be conducted to address these limitations; however, we believe that the proposed policies could protect the American public.

Ethical Challenges in Health Care Policy during COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Italy has proven to be one of the countries with the highest coronavirus-linked death rate. To reduce the impact of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the Italian Government decision-makers issued a series of law decrees that imposed measures limiting social contacts, stopped non-essential production activities, and restructured public health care in order to privilege assistance to patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Health care services were substantially limited including planned hospitalization and elective surgeries. These substantial measures were criticized due to their impact on individual rights including freedom and autonomy, but were justified by the awareness that hospitals would have been unable to cope with the surge of infected people who needed treatment for COVID-19. The imbalance between the need to guarantee ordinary care and to deal with the pandemic, in a context of limited health resources, raises ethical concerns as well as clinical management issues. The emergency scenario caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the lockdown phase, led the Government and health care decision-makers to prioritize community safety above the individuals' rights. This new community-centered approach to clinical care has created tension among the practitioners and exposed health workers to malpractice claims. Reducing the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic is the priority of every government, but the legitimate question remains whether the policy that supports this measure could be less harmful for the health care system.

The effect of national lockdown due to COVID-19 on emergency department visits

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 outbreak lead to nationwide lockdown in Finland on the March 16th, 2020. Previous data regarding to the patient load in the emergency departments during pandemics is scarce. Our aim is to describe the effect of national lockdown and social distancing on the number and reasons for emergency department (ED) visits and inpatient admissions in three large volume hospitals prior to and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland.

METHODS

Data for this register-based retrospective cohort study were collected from three large ED's in Finland, covering 1/6 of the Finnish population. All patients visiting ED's six weeks before and six weeks after the lockdown were included. Pediatric and gynecological patients were excluded. Numbers and reasons for ED visits and inpatient admissions were collected. Corresponding time period in 2019 was used as reference.

RESULTS

A total of 40,653 ED visits and 12,226 inpatient admissions were analyzed. The total number of ED visits decreased 16% after the lockdown, whereas the number of inpatient admissions decreased 15% (p < 0.001). This change in inpatient admissions was similar in all participating hospitals. Visits due to back or limb pain decreased 31% and infectious diseases 28%. The visit rate and inpatient admissions due to acute myocardial infarction and strokes remained stable throughout the study period. Interestingly, the rate of inpatient admissions due to psychiatric diagnoses remained unchanged, although the ED visit rate decreased by 19%. The number of ED visits (n = 282) and inpatient admissions (n = 55) due to COVID-19 remained low in the participating hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in ED visits and inpatient admissions prior to and during the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak were unpredictable, and our results may help hospitals and especially ED's focus their resources better. Surprisingly, there was a major decrease in the rate of ED visits due to back or limb pain and not so surprisingly in infectious diseases. Rates of acute myocardial infarctions and cerebral strokes remained stable. In summary, stabile resources for the treatment of patients with severe diseases will be needed in hospitals and ED's.

Early assessment of the impact of mitigation measures to control COVID-19 in 22 French metropolitan areas, October to November 2020

In France, measures including curfew and lockdown were implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic second wave in 2020. This study descriptively assesses their possible effects, also relative to their timing. A considerable decrease in incidence of COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions was observed 7 to 10 days after mitigation measures were put in place, occurring earlier in metropolitan areas which had implemented these first. This temporal coincidence suggests the measures' positive impact, consistent with international experiences.

Quantifying human mobility behaviour changes during the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States

Since the first case of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in Wuhan, China, social distancing has been promoted worldwide, including in the United States, as a major community mitigation strategy. However, our understanding remains limited in how people would react to such control measures, as well as how people would resume their normal behaviours when those orders were relaxed. We utilize an integrated dataset of real-time mobile device location data involving 100 million devices in the contiguous United States (plus Alaska and Hawaii) from February 2, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Built upon the common human mobility metrics, we construct a Social Distancing Index (SDI) to evaluate people's mobility pattern changes along with the spread of COVID-19 at different geographic levels. We find that both government orders and local outbreak severity significantly contribute to the strength of social distancing. As people tend to practice less social distancing immediately after they observe a sign of local mitigation, we identify several states and counties with higher risks of continuous community transmission and a second outbreak. Our proposed index could help policymakers and researchers monitor people's real-time mobility behaviours, understand the influence of government orders, and evaluate the risk of local outbreaks.

Evaluating the impact of stay-at-home orders on the time to reach the peak burden of Covid-19 cases and deaths: does timing matter?

BACKGROUND

The economic, psychological, and social impact of pandemics and social distancing measures prompt the urgent need to determine the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), especially those considered most stringent such as stay-at-home and self-isolation mandates. This study focuses specifically on the impact of stay-at-home orders, both nationally and internationally, on the control of COVID-19.

METHODS

We conducted an observational analysis from April to May 2020 and included both countries and US states with known stay-at-home orders. Our primary exposure was the time between the date of the first reported case of COVID-19 to an implemented stay-at-home mandate for each region. Our primary outcomes were the time from the first reported case to the highest number of daily cases and daily deaths. We conducted linear regression analyses, controlling for the case rate of the outbreak in each respective region.

RESULTS

For countries and US states, a longer period of time between the first reported case and stay-at-home mandates was associated with a longer time to reach both the peak daily case and death counts. The largest effect was among regions classified as the latest 10% to implement a mandate, which in the US, predicted an extra 35.3 days (95% CI: 18.2, 52.5) to the peak number of cases, and 38.3 days (95% CI: 23.6, 53.0) to the peak number of deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports the association between the timing of stay-at-home orders and the time to peak case and death counts for both countries and US states. Regions in which mandates were implemented late experienced a prolonged duration to reaching both peak daily case and death counts.

An integrated view on society readiness and initial reaction to COVID-19: A study across European countries

With the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the question of society's capability to deal with an acute health crisis is, once again, brought to the forefront. In the core is the need to broaden the perspective on the determinants of a country's ability to cope with the spread of the virus. This paper is about bringing together diverse aspects of readiness and initial reaction to a COVID-19 outbreak. We proposed an integrated evaluation framework which encapsulates six dimensions of readiness and initial reaction. Using a specific multi-level outranking method, we analysed how these dimensions affect the relative positioning of European countries in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. The results revealed that the order of countries based on our six-dimensional assessment framework is significantly reminiscent of the actual positioning of countries in terms of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in the initial phase of the pandemic. Our findings confirm that only when a country's readiness is complemented by an appropriate societal reaction we can expect a less severe outcome. Moreover, our study revealed different patterns of performance between former communist Eastern European and Western European countries.

Declines in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Hospitalizations, and Mortality After Implementation of Mitigation Measures- Delaware, March-June 2020

Mitigation measures, including stay-at-home orders and public mask wearing, together with routine public health interventions such as case investigation with contact tracing and immediate self-quarantine after exposure, are recommended to prevent and control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1-3). On March 11, the first COVID-19 case in Delaware was reported to the Delaware Division of Public Health (DPH). The state responded to ongoing community transmission with investigation of all identified cases (commencing March 11), issuance of statewide stay-at-home orders (March 24-June 1), a statewide public mask mandate (from April 28), and contact tracing (starting May 12). The relationship among implementation of mitigation strategies, case investigations, and contact tracing and COVID-19 incidence and associated hospitalization and mortality was examined during March-June 2020. Incidence declined by 82%, hospitalization by 88%, and mortality by 100% from late April to June 2020, as the mask mandate and contact tracing were added to case investigations and the stay-at-home order. Among 9,762 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported during March 11-June 25, 2020, two thirds (6,527; 67%) of patients were interviewed, and 5,823 (60%) reported completing isolation. Among 2,834 contacts reported, 882 (31%) were interviewed and among these contacts, 721 (82%) reported completing quarantine. Implementation of mitigation measures, including mandated mask use coupled with public health interventions, was followed by reductions in COVID-19 incidence and associated hospitalizations and mortality. The combination of state-mandated community mitigation efforts and routine public health interventions can reduce the occurrence of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Perceived social support and compliance with stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 outbreak: evidence from Iran

BACKGROUND

Strong evidence demonstrates that social support plays a key role in facilitating preventive health behaviors. The aim of the current study was to assess the effects of perceived social support on compliance with stay-at-home orders in response to a COVID-19 outbreak during the Persian New Year (Nowruz) holydays, since Nowruz holidays of 2020 coincided with the peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey was carried out based on phone interviews of 1073 adults aged over 18 years from 4 to 12 April 2020 in Mashhad, Khorasan-Razavi Province, as the second largest city of Iran. A systematic random sampling was carried out using fixed phone number lists provided by Telecommunication Company of Khorasan-Razavi Province. Phone interviews were carried out by trained interviewers from the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) at various times of the day. The survey included sociodemographic questions, perceived social support scale (MSPSS) and questions about self-isolation during the Nowruz holiday. Statistical analysis included Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney test and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

20.5% of participants reported poor compliance with stay at home orders during the first 2 weeks of Nowruz. Clear social gradients were not found in stay-at-home compliance. When controlling socio-demographic factors, perceived social support, interestingly, both fostered and hindered people's compliance with stay at home orders, depending on the source of support from family members (OR = .874, 95% CI = .803, .950, p < .005), friends (OR = 1.147, 95% CI = 1.076, 1.222, p < .001) and a significant other person (OR = .926, 95% CI = .849, 1.010, p = .084).

CONCLUSIONS

Public health messaging may need to emphasize the role that friends and families can play in helping to protect those in their friendship/family groups by promoting compliance with social distancing. Further in-depth studies are recommended to evaluate how this kind of messaging can most effectively encourage people to engage in social distancing practices.

Modeling and control of COVID-19: A short-term forecasting in the context of India

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, due to SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), originated in Wuhan, China and is now a global pandemic. The unavailability of vaccines, delays in diagnosis of the disease, and lack of proper treatment resources are the leading causes of the rapid spread of COVID-19. The world is now facing a rapid loss of human lives and socioeconomic status. As a mathematical model can provide some real pictures of the disease spread, enabling better prevention measures. In this study, we propose and analyze a mathematical model to describe the COVID-19 pandemic. We have derived the threshold parameter basic reproduction number, and a detailed sensitivity analysis of this most crucial threshold parameter has been performed to determine the most sensitive indices. Finally, the model is applied to describe COVID-19 scenarios in India, the second-largest populated country in the world, and some of its vulnerable states. We also have short-term forecasting of COVID-19, and we have observed that controlling only one model parameter can significantly reduce the disease's vulnerability.

Immediate impact of stay-at-home orders to control COVID-19 transmission on socioeconomic conditions, food insecurity, mental health, and intimate partner violence in Bangladeshi women and their families: an interrupted time series

BACKGROUND

Stay-at-home orders (lockdowns) have been deployed globally to control COVID-19 transmission, and might impair economic conditions and mental health, and exacerbate risk of food insecurity and intimate partner violence. The effect of lockdowns in low-income and middle-income countries must be understood to ensure safe deployment of these interventions in less affluent settings. We aimed to determine the immediate impact of COVID-19 lockdown orders on women and their families in rural Bangladesh.

METHODS

An interrupted time series was used to compare data collected from families in Rupganj upazila, rural Bangladesh (randomly selected from participants in a randomised controlled trial), on income, food security, and mental health a median of 1 year and 2 years before the COVID-19 pandemic to data collected during the lockdown. We also assessed women's experiences of intimate partner violence during the pandemic.

RESULTS

Between May 19 and June 18, 2020, we randomly selected and invited the mothers of 3016 children to participate in the study, 2424 of whom provided consent. 2414 (99·9%, 95% CI 99·6-99·9) of 2417 mothers were aware of, and adhering to, the stay-at-home advice. 2321 (96·0%, 95·2-96·7) of 2417 mothers reported a reduction in paid work for the family. Median monthly family income fell from US$212 at baseline to $59 during lockdown, and the proportion of families earning less than $1·90 per day rose from five (0·2%, 0·0-0·5) of 2422 to 992 (47·3%, 45·2-49·5) of 2096 (p<0·0001 comparing baseline with lockdown period). Before the pandemic, 136 (5·6%, 4·7-6·6) of 2420 and 65 (2·7%, 2·1-3·4) of 2420 families experienced moderate and severe food insecurity, respectively. This increased to 881 (36·5%, 34·5-38·4) of 2417 and 371 (15·3%, 13·9-16·8) of 2417 during the lockdown; the number of families experiencing any level of food insecurity increased by 51·7% (48·1-55·4; p<0·0001). Mothers' depression and anxiety symptoms increased during the lockdown. Among women experiencing emotional or moderate physical violence, over half reported it had increased since the lockdown.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 lockdowns present significant economic, psychosocial, and physical risks to the wellbeing of women and their families across economic strata in rural Bangladesh. Beyond supporting only the most socioeconomically deprived, support is needed for all affected families.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia.

Social connections with COVID-19-affected areas increase compliance with mobility restrictions

We study the role of social connections in compliance of U.S. households with mobility restrictions imposed in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, using aggregated and anonymized Facebook data on social connections and mobile phone data for measuring social distancing at the county level. Relative to the average restriction efficacy, a county with one-SD more social connections with China and Italy-the first countries with major COVID-19 outbreaks-has a nearly 50% higher compliance with mobility restrictions. By contrast, social connections of counties with less-educated populations, a higher Trump vote share, and a higher fraction of climate change deniers show decreased compliance with mobility restrictions. Our analysis suggests that social connections are conduits of information about the pandemic and an economically important factor affecting compliance with, and impact of, mobility restrictions.

Income assurances are a crucial factor in determining public compliance with self-isolation regulations during the COVID-19 outbreak - cohort study in Israel

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of a new Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses dramatic challenges to public health authorities worldwide. One measure put in place to contain the spread of the disease is self-quarantine of individuals who may have been exposed to the disease. While officials expect the public to comply with such regulation, studies suggest that a major obstacle to compliance for self-quarantine is concern over loss of income or employment due to the prolonged absence from work.

METHODS

A cohort study of the adult population of Israel was conducted in two time points during the COVID-19 outbreak, the last week of February and the third week of March 2020, in order to assess public attitudes. In particular, public compliance rates to self-quarantine with and without State-sponsored compensation for lost wages were assessed.

RESULTS

The results suggest that public attitudes changed as the threat increased, making people more compliant with regulations. In February 2020, compliance rate for self-quarantine dropped from 94% to less than 57% when monetary compensation for lost wages was removed; however, in March 2020 this drop became more moderate (from 96 to 71%). The multivariate logistic regression revealed that older, non-Jewish, worried over COVID-19, and trusting the Ministry of Health were more likely than their counterparts to comply with self-isolation, even when monetary compensation was not assumed.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the effects of threat on people's obedience with regulations, this study demonstrates that providing people with assurances about their livelihood during absence from work remains an important component in compliance with public health regulations.

Factors associated with adherence to self-isolation and lockdown measures in the UK: a cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVES

To investigate factors associated with adherence to self-isolation and lockdown measures due to COVID-19 in the UK.

STUDY DESIGN

Online cross-sectional survey.

METHODS

Data were collected between 6th and 7th May 2020. A total of 2240 participants living in the UK aged 18 years or older were recruited from YouGov's online research panel.

RESULTS

A total of 217 people (9.7%) reported that they or someone in their household had symptoms of COVID-19 (cough or high temperature/fever) in the last 7 days. Of these people, 75.1% had left the home in the last 24 h (defined as non-adherent). Men were more likely to be non-adherent, as were people who were less worried about COVID-19, and who perceived a smaller risk of catching COVID-19. Adherence was associated with having received help from someone outside your household. Results should be taken with caution as there was no evidence for associations when controlling for multiple analyses. Of people reporting no symptoms in the household, 24.5% had gone out shopping for non-essentials in the last week (defined as non-adherent). Factors associated with non-adherence and with a higher total number of outings in the last week included decreased perceived effectiveness of government 'lockdown' measures, decreased perceived severity of COVID-19 and decreased estimates of how many other people were following lockdown rules. Having received help was associated with better adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to self-isolation is poor. As we move into a new phase of contact tracing and self-isolation, it is essential that adherence is improved. Communications should aim to increase knowledge about actions to take when symptomatic or if you have been in contact with a possible COVID-19 case. They should also emphasise the risk of catching and spreading COVID-19 when out and about and the effectiveness of preventative measures. Using volunteer networks effectively to support people in isolation may promote adherence.

Underutilization of the Emergency Department During the COVID-19 Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States (US) prompted widespread containment measures such as shelter-in-place (SIP) orders. The goal of our study was to determine whether there was a significant change in overall volume and proportion of emergency department (ED) encounters since SIP measures began.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, observational, cross-sectional study using billing data from January 1, 2017-April 20, 2020. We received data from 141 EDs across 16 states, encompassing a convenience sample of 26,223,438 ED encounters. We used a generalized least squares regression approach to ascertain changes for overall ED encounters, hospital admissions, and New York University ED visit algorithm categories.

RESULTS

ED encounters decreased significantly in the post-SIP period. Overall, there was a 39.6% decrease in ED encounters compared to expected volume in the pre-SIP period. Emergent encounters decreased by 35.8%, while non-emergent encounters decreased by 52.1%. Psychiatric encounters decreased by 30.2%. Encounters related to drugs and alcohol decreased the least, by 9.3% and 27.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

There was a significant overall reduction in ED utilization in the post-SIP period. There was a greater reduction in lower acuity encounters than higher acuity encounters. Of all subtypes of ED encounters, substance abuse- and alcohol-related encounters reduced the least, and injury-related encounters reduced the most.

Diabolical dilemmas of COVID-19: An empirical study into Dutch society's trade-offs between health impacts and other effects of the lockdown

We report and interpret preferences of a sample of the Dutch adult population for different strategies to end the so-called 'intelligent lockdown' which their government had put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a discrete choice experiment, we invited participants to make a series of choices between policy scenarios aimed at relaxing the lockdown, which were specified not in terms of their nature (e.g. whether or not to allow schools to re-open) but in terms of their effects along seven dimensions. These included health-related effects, but also impacts on the economy, education, and personal income. From the observed choices, we were able to infer the implicit trade-offs made by the Dutch between these policy effects. For example, we find that the average citizen, in order to avoid one fatality directly or indirectly related to COVID-19, is willing to accept a lasting lag in the educational performance of 18 children, or a lasting (>3 years) and substantial (>15%) reduction in net income of 77 households. We explore heterogeneity across individuals in terms of these trade-offs by means of latent class analysis. Our results suggest that most citizens are willing to trade-off health-related and other effects of the lockdown, implying a consequentialist ethical perspective. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that the elderly, known to be at relatively high risk of being affected by the virus, are relatively reluctant to sacrifice economic pain and educational disadvantages for the younger generation, to avoid fatalities. We also identify a so-called taboo trade-off aversion amongst a substantial share of our sample, being an aversion to accept morally problematic policies that simultaneously imply higher fatality numbers and lower taxes. We explain various ways in which our results can be of value to policy makers in the context of the COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia

SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. This paper studies the across-country relationships between social distancing and each population's response to policy, the subsequent effects of these responses to the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. The analysis couples COVID-19 case counts with real-time mobility data across Southeast Asia to estimate the effects of host population response to social distancing policy and the subsequent effects on the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia.

Does Self-isolation Violate the Right to Liberty? An Analysis of the European Court of Human Rights' Practice in Light of the Ukrainian Experience

COVID-19 became a stress-test for many legal systems because it required that a balance be found between rapid action to prevent the spread of the disease, and continued respect for human rights. Many states in Europe, including Ukraine, chose to enforce an obligation to self-isolate. In this article we review what the obligation to self-isolate entails in the case of Ukraine. We also analyse whether such an obligation should be viewed as a deprivation or a mere restriction of liberty, and if it is permissible under the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.