Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

A novel framework of smart monitoring to face the challenges of tree management in historic gardens

Historic gardens are green spaces characterised by tree stands with several veteran specimens of high artistic and cultural value. Such valuable plant components have to cope with biotic and abiotic stress factors as well as ongoing senescence processes. Maintaining tree health is therefore crucial to preserve their ecosystem services, but also to protect the monument and visitor health. In this context, finding smart, fast and cost-effective management solutions to monitor health and detect critical conditions for both stands and individual veteran trees can promote garden conservation. For this reason, we developed a novel framework based on Sentinel2 imagery, LiDAR sources and automatic cameras to identify risk spots regarding trees in historic gardens. The pilot study area consists of two closed Italian gardens from the 16th century, which were analysed as a unique Historic Garden System (HGS). The tree health status at stand level was assessed using a criterion based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index weighed on tree volume (NDVIt) and validated by a visual crown defoliation assessment. At the veteran tree level, the health status of four veteran trees defined by the NDVIt was also evaluated using green chromatic coordinates (GCC) obtained from digital images acquired by cameras at daily intervals during one growing season. The 33% of the tree population was classified as being in poor health, i.e. "at risk". Veteran trees classified as "at risk" showed an anticipation of phenological phases and a lower GCC compared to reference trees. Despite variability determined by Sentinel medium resolution, the proposed framework showed good accuracy (0.74) for monitoring historical gardens. The semi-automatic risk point mapping system tested here proved to be effective in facilitating the management of historic gardens, which in turn could be applied in the wider context of urban greening.

Growth and non-structural carbohydrates response patterns of Eucommia ulmoides under salt and drought stress

Introduction

Salinity and droughts are severe abiotic stress factors that limit plant growth and development. However, the differences and similarities of non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) responses patterns of trees under the two stress conditions remain unclear.

Methods

We determined and compared the growth, physiology, and NSCs response patterns and tested the relationships between growth and NSCs concentrations (or pool size) of Eucommia ulmoides seedlings planted in field under drought and salt stress with different intensities and durations.

Results and discussion

We found that drought and salt stress can inhibit the growth of E. ulmoides, and E. ulmoides tended to enhance its stress resistance by increasing proline concentration and leaf thickness or density but decreasing investment in belowground biomass in short-term stress. During short-term drought and salt stress, the aboveground organs showed different NSCs response characteristics, while belowground organs showed similar change characteristics: the starch (ST) and NSCs concentrations in the coarse roots decreased, while the ST and soluble sugar (SS) concentrations in the fine roots increased to enhance stress resistance and maintain water absorption function. As salt and drought stress prolonged, the belowground organs represented different NSCs response patterns: the concentrations of ST and SS in fine roots decreased as salt stress prolonged; while ST in fine roots could still be converted into SS to maintain water absorption as drought prolonged, resulting in an increase of SS and a decrease of ST. Significant positive relationships were found between growth and the SS and total NSCs concentrations in leaves and branches, however, no significant correlations were found between growth and below-ground organs. Moreover, relationships between growth and NSCs pool size across organs could be contrast.

Conclusion

Our results provide important insights into the mechanisms of carbon balance and carbon starvation and the relationship between tree growth and carbon storage under stress, which were of great significance in guiding for the management of artificial forest ecosystem under the context of global change.

Intraspecific variation in Janzen-Connell effect is mediated by stress and plant-soil feedbacks

Janzen-Connell (JC) effects, hypothesized to be partially driven by negative plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs), are considered to be a key mechanism that regulates tropical forest plant diversity and coexistence. However, intraspecific variation in JC effects may weaken this mechanism, with the strength of PSFs being a potentially key variable process. We conducted a manipulated experiment with seedlings from two populations of Pometia pinnata (Sapindaceae), a tropical tree species in southwest China. We aimed to measure the intraspecific difference in PSF magnitude caused by inoculating the soil from different P. pinnata source populations and growing seedlings under differing light intensity and water availability treatments, and at varying plant densities. We found negative PSFs for both populations with the inoculum soil originating from the same sites, but PSFs differed significantly with the inoculum soil from different sites. PSF strength responded differently to biotic and abiotic drivers; PSF strength was weaker in low moisture and high light treatments than in high moisture and low light treatments. Our study documents intraspecific variation in JC effects: specifically, P. pinnata have less defenses to their natively-sourced soil, but are more defensive to the soil feedbacks from soil sourced from other populations. Our results imply that drought and light intensity tended to weaken JC effects, which may result in loss of species diversity with climate change.

Decametric-scale buffering of climate extremes in forest understory within a riparian microrefugia: the key role of microtopography

Riparian corridors often act as low-land climate refugia for temperate tree species in their southern distribution range. A plausible mechanism is the buffering of regional climate extremes by local physiographic and biotic factors. We tested this idea using a 3-year-long microclimate dataset collected along the Ciron river, a refugia for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in southwestern France. Across the whole network, canopy gap fraction was the main predictor for spatial microclimatic variations, together with two other landscape features (elevation above the river and woodland fraction within a 300m radius). However, within the riparian forest only (canopy gap fraction < 25%, distance to the river < 150m), variations of up to -4°C and + 15% in summertime daily maximum air temperature and minimum relative humidity, respectively, were still found from the plateau to the cooler, moister river banks, only ~ 5-10m below. Elevation above the river was then identified as the main predictor, and explained the marked variations from the plateau to the banks much better than canopy gap fraction. The microclimate measured near the river is as cool but moister than the macroclimate encountered at 700-1000m asl further east in F. sylvatica's main distribution range. Indeed, at all locations, we found that air relative humidity was higher than expected from a temperature-only effect, suggesting that extra moisture is brought by the river. Our results explain well why beech trees in this climate refugium are restricted to the river gorges where microtopographic variations are the strongest and canopy gaps are rare.

Mediterranean pine forest decline: A matter of root-associated microbiota and climate change

Forest ecosystems worldwide currently face worrying episodes of forest decline, which have boosted weakening and mortality of the trees. In the Mediterranean region, especially in the southeast Iberian Peninsula, Pinus sylvestris forests are severely affected by this phenomenon, and it has been commonly attributed to drought events. Remarkably, the role of root microbiota on pine decline has been overlooked and remains unclear. We therefore used metabarcoding to identify the belowground microbial communities of decline-affected and unaffected pine trees. Taxonomic composition of bacterial and fungal rhizosphere communities, and fungal populations dwelling in root endosphere showed different profiles depending on the health status of the trees. The root endosphere of asymptomatic trees was as strongly dominated by 'Candidatus Phytoplasma pini' as the root of decline-affected pines, accounting for >99 % of the total bacterial sequences in some samples. Notwithstanding, the titer of this phytopathogen was four-fold higher in symptomatic trees than in symptomless ones. Furthermore, the microbiota inhabiting the root endosphere of decline-affected trees assembled into a less complex and more modularized network. Thus, the observed changes in the microbial communities could be a cause or a consequence of forest decline phenomenon. Moreover, 'Ca. Phytoplasma pini' is positively correlated to Pinus sylvestris decline events, either as the primary cause of pine decline or as an opportunistic pathogen exacerbating the process once the tree has been weaken by other factors.

Drought- and heat-induced mortality of conifer trees is explained by leaf and growth legacies

An increased frequency and severity of droughts and heat waves have resulted in increased tree mortality and forest dieback across the world, but underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a common garden experiment with 20 conifer tree species to quantify mortality after three consecutive hot, dry summers and tested whether mortality could be explained by putative underlying mechanisms, such as stem hydraulics and legacies affected by leaf life span and stem growth responses to previous droughts. Mortality varied from 0 to 79% across species and was not affected by hydraulic traits. Mortality increased with species' leaf life span probably because leaf damage caused crown dieback and contributed to carbon depletion and bark beetle damage. Mortality also increased with lower growth resilience, which may exacerbate the contribution of carbon depletion and bark beetle sensitivity to tree mortality. Our study highlights how ecological legacies at different time scales can explain tree mortality in response to hot, dry periods and climate change.

The effect of ectomycorrhizal fungal exposure on nursery-raised Pinus sylvestris seedlings: plant transpiration under short-term drought, root morphology and plant biomass

Drought is a major environmental stressor that limits seedling growth. Several studies have found that some ectomycorrhizal fungi may increase the drought tolerance of nursery-raised seedlings. However, the precise role that different ectomycorrhizal fungi species play in drought tolerance remains unclear. We evaluated the transpiration rate of Pinus sylvestris seedlings under drought stress in greenhouse conditions by exposing seedlings to 10 ectomycorrhizal fungi species, with different functional traits (exploration type and hydrophobicity), and to 3 natural soil inoculums. We measured the transpiration and water potential of the seedlings during a 10-day drought period and a 14-day recovery period. We then analyzed their root morphology, stem, needle, root biomass and needle chlorophyll fluorescence. We showed that exposing seedlings to ectomycorrhizal fungi or soil inoculum had a positive effect on their transpiration rate during the driest period and through the recovery phase, leading to 2- to 3-fold higher transpiration rates compared with the nonexposed control seedlings. Seedlings exposed to medium-distance ectomycorrhizal fungi performed better than other exploration types under drought conditions, but ectomycorrhizal fungi hydrophobicity did not seem to affect the seedlings response to drought. No significant differences were observed in biomass accumulation and root morphology between the seedlings exposed to different ectomycorrhizal fungi species and the control. Our results highlight the positive and species-specific effect of ectomycorrhizal fungi exposure on drought tolerance in nursery-raised Scots pine seedlings. The studied ectomycorrhizal fungi functional traits may not be sufficient to predict the seedling response to drought stress, thus physiological studies across multiple species are needed to draw the correct conclusion. Our findings have potential practical implications for enhancing seedling drought tolerance in nursery plant production.

Impact of aridity rise and arid lands expansion on carbon-storing capacity, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem services

Drylands, comprising semi-arid, arid, and hyperarid regions, cover approximately 41% of the Earth's land surface and have expanded considerably in recent decades. Even under more optimistic scenarios, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, semi-arid lands may increase by up to 38%. This study provides an overview of the state-of-the-art regarding changing aridity in arid regions, with a specific focus on its effects on the accumulation and availability of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in plant-soil systems. Additionally, we summarized the impacts of rising aridity on biodiversity, service provisioning, and feedback effects on climate change across scales. The expansion of arid ecosystems is linked to a decline in C and nutrient stocks, plant community biomass and diversity, thereby diminishing the capacity for recovery and maintaining adequate water-use efficiency by plants and microbes. Prolonged drought led to a -3.3% reduction in soil organic carbon (SOC) content (based on 148 drought-manipulation studies), a -8.7% decrease in plant litter input, a -13.0% decline in absolute litter decomposition, and a -5.7% decrease in litter decomposition rate. Moreover, a substantial positive feedback loop with global warming exists, primarily due to increased albedo. The loss of critical ecosystem services, including food production capacity and water resources, poses a severe challenge to the inhabitants of these regions. Increased aridity reduces SOC, nutrient, and water content. Aridity expansion and intensification exacerbate socio-economic disparities between economically rich and least developed countries, with significant opportunities for improvement through substantial investments in infrastructure and technology. By 2100, half the world's landmass may become dryland, characterized by severe conditions marked by limited C, N, and P resources, water scarcity, and substantial loss of native species biodiversity. These conditions pose formidable challenges for maintaining essential services, impacting human well-being and raising complex global and regional socio-political challenges.

Climate-limited vegetation change in the conterminous United States of America

The effects of climate change on vegetation composition and distribution are evident in different ecosystems around the world. Although some climate-derived alterations on vegetation are expected to result in changes in lifeform fractional cover, disentangling the direct effects of climate change from different non-climate factors, such as land-use change, is challenging. By applying "Liebig's law of the minimum" in a geospatial context, we determined the climate-limited potential for tree, shrub, herbaceous, and non-vegetation fractional cover change for the conterminous United States and compared these potential rates to observed change rates for the period 1986 to 2018. We found that 10% of the land area of the conterminous United States appears to have climate limitations on the change in fractional cover, with a high proportion of these sites located in arid and semiarid ecosystems in the Southwest part of the country. The rates of change in lifeform fractional cover for the remaining area of the country are likely limited by non-climate factors such as the disturbance regime, land management, land-use history, soil conditions, and species interactions and adaptations.

"Mortality, or not mortality, that is the question …": How to Treat Removals in Tree Survival Analysis of Central European Managed Forests

Tree mortality is an objective forest health criterion and is particularly suitable for long-term and large-scale studies of forest condition. However, it is impossible to determine actual tree mortality in Central European managed forests where trees are removed for various reasons. In this case, the only way to approximate tree mortality is to define the range in which it occurs. This can be carried out by including in the mortality calculations either dead trees that remain in the stand at the end of the assessment period or additionally trees that have been removed from the stand. We used data from the annual forest monitoring surveys in Poland from 2009 to 2022 for pine, spruce, oak and birch to perform a survival analysis in which we included all removals or sanitary cuttings either as censored or complete observations. The differences between the calculated mortality rates were significant, indicating the importance of how removals are treated in the analysis. To assess which method used for mortality calculation was more appropriate, we compared values for last recorded defoliation and severity of damage from live, dead and thinned or salvaged trees. For all species studied, significant differences were found between dead trees or trees removed by sanitation cuts and living trees or trees removed by thinning, suggesting that not only dead trees remaining in the forest, but also trees removed by sanitation cuts, should be considered when calculating mortality in managed stands. We also recommend the use of survival analysis in forest monitoring as a routine method for assessing the health of stands.

Cross-scale assessments of the impacts and resilience of subtropical montane cloud forests to chronic seasonal droughts and episodic typhoons

Montane cloud forests (MCFs) are ecosystems frequently immersed in fog and are vital for the terrestrial hydrological cycle and biodiversity hotspots. However, the potential impacts of climate change, particularly intensified droughts and typhoons, on the persistence of ecosystems remain unclear. Our study conducted cross-scale assessments using 6-year (2016-2021) ground litterfall and 21-year (2001-2021) satellite greenness data (the Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI] and the EVI anomaly change [ΔEVI% ]), gross primary productivity anomaly change (ΔGPP% ), and meteorological variables (the standardized precipitation index [SPI] and wind speed). We found a positive correlation between summer EVI and ΔGPP% with the SPI-3 (3-month time scale), while winter litterfall showed a negative correlation. Maximum typhoon daily wind speed was negatively correlated with summer and the monthly ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% . These findings suggest vegetation damage and productivity loss were related to drought and typhoon intensities. Furthermore, our analysis highlighted that chronic seasonal droughts had more pronounced impacts on MCFs than severe typhoons, implying that high precipitation and frequent fog immersion do not necessarily mitigate the ramifications of water deficit on MCFs but might render MCFs more sensitive and vulnerable to drought. A significant negative correlation between the summer and winter ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% of the same year, suggesting disturbance severity during summer may facilitate vegetation regrowth and carbon accumulation in the subsequent winter. This finding may be attributed to the ecological resilience of MCFs, which enables them to recover from the previous summer. In the long-term, our results indicated an increase in vegetation resilience over two decades in MCFs, likely driven by rising temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide levels. However, the enhancement of resilience might be overshadowed by the potential intensified droughts and typhoons in the future, potentially causing severe damage and insufficient recovery times for MCFs, thus raising concerns about uncertainties regarding their sustained resilience.

Drought survival in conifer species is related to the time required to cross the stomatal safety margin

The regulation of water loss and the spread of xylem embolism have mostly been considered separately. The development of an integrated approach taking into account the temporal dynamics and relative contributions of these mechanisms to plant drought responses is urgently needed. Do conifer species native to mesic and xeric environments display different hydraulic strategies and temporal sequences under drought? A dry-down experiment was performed on seedlings of four conifer species differing in embolism resistance, from drought-sensitive to extremely drought-resistant species. A set of traits related to drought survival was measured, including turgor loss point, stomatal closure, minimum leaf conductance, and xylem embolism resistance. All species reached full stomatal closure before the onset of embolism, with all but the most drought-sensitive species presenting large stomatal safety margins, demonstrating that highly drought-resistant species do not keep their stomata open under drought conditions. Plant dry-down time to death was significantly influenced by the xylem embolism threshold, stomatal safety margin, and minimum leaf conductance, and was best explained by the newly introduced stomatal margin retention index (SMRIΨ50) which reflects the time required to cross the stomatal safety margin. The SMRIΨ50 may become a key tool for the characterization of interspecific drought survival variability in trees.

Topography modulates climate sensitivity of multidecadal trends of holm oak decline

Forest decline events have increased worldwide over the last decades being holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) one of the tree species with the most worrying trends across Europe. Since this is one of the tree species with the southernmost distribution within the European continent, its vulnerability to climate change is a phenomenon of enormous ecological importance. Previous research identified drought and soil pathogens as the main causes behind holm oak decline. However, despite tree health loss is a multifactorial phenomenon where abiotic and biotic factors interact in time and space, there are some abiotic factors whose influence has been commonly overlooked. Here, we evaluate how land use (forests versus savannas), topography, and climate extremes jointly determine the spatiotemporal patterns of holm oak defoliation trends over almost three decades (1987-2014) in Spain, where holm oak represents the 25% of the national forested area. We found an increasing defoliation trend in 119 out of the total 134 holm oak plots evaluated, being this defoliation trend significantly higher in forests compared with savannas. Moreover, we have detected that the interaction between topography (which covariates with the land use) and summer precipitation anomalies explains trends of holm oak decline across the Mediterranean region. While a higher occurrence of dry summers increases defoliation trends in steeper terrains where forests dominate, an inverse relationship was found in flatter terrains where savannas are mainly located. These opposite relationships suggest different causal mechanisms behind decline. Whereas hydric stress is likely to occur in steeper terrains where soil water holding capacity is limited, soil waterlogging usually occurs in flatter terrains what increases tree vulnerability to soil pathogens. Our results contribute to the growing evidence of the influence of local topography on forest resilience and could assist in the identification of potential tree decline hotspots and its main causes over the Mediterranean region.

Coordination of hydraulic and leaf-level gas exchange traits during water-deficit acclimation in apple rootstocks

Water deficit episodes impact apple (Malus domestica) productivity through challenging the trees' water status, the influence of extreme high temperature climate has become increasingly prominent in recent years. Rootstocks can bestow specific properties on the fruit trees such as the resistance to drought stress. However, the related hydraulic mechanisms in response to water deficit have not been fully understood. Herein, five rootstocks (SH6, GM256, M9, M26, and MM106) were examined under water limitation. The hydraulic conductance of root (Kroot), shoots (Kshoot), and stems (Kstem-shoot) in the five rootstocks reduced slightly during drought stress. Whereas the leaf water potential and photosynthesis of five rootstocks decreased dramatically when they were exposed to drought stress. Additionally, the Kshoot and Kstem-shoot were strongly correlated with the total plant leaf area. Aquaporins (AQPs) involved in the symplastic water transport pathway, the PIP2:1, TIP1:1, and TIP2:2 mRNA levels of all genotypic rootstocks showed significant regulation under drought stress. We examined the relationships among photosynthesis, apoplastic, and symplastic water movement pathways to achieve a comprehensive understanding of rootstocks' hydraulic strategy for improving drought adaptation. The PIP2:1 and TIP2:1 in leaves were more sensitive to root hydraulic conductance in response to drought stress. Furthermore, the coordinated relationship existed in leaf-specific conductance of shoot (Kl -shoot) and transpiration rate (Tr) under drought stress in the rootstocks. Overall, the drought resistance in the five dwarfing rootstocks is associated with the rapid re-establishment of water-related traits, and the effect of the canopy on the drought resistance in apple rootstocks merits much more attention.

Population decline in a Pleistocene refugium: Stepwise, drought-related dieback of a South Australian eucalypt

Refugia can facilitate the persistence of species under long-term environmental change, but it is not clear if Pleistocene refugia will remain functional as anthropogenic climate change progresses. Dieback in populations restricted to refugia therefore raises concerns about their long-term persistence. Using repeat field surveys, we investigate dieback in an isolated population of Eucalyptus macrorhyncha during two droughts and discuss prospects for its continued persistence in a Pleistocene refugium. We first confirm that the Clare Valley in South Australia has constituted a long-term refugium for the species, with the population being genetically highly distinct from other conspecific populations. However, the population lost >40 % of individuals and biomass through the droughts, with mortality being just below 20 % after the Millennium Drought (2000-2009) and almost 25 % after the Big Dry (2017-2019). The best predictors of mortality differed after each drought. While north-facing aspect of a sampling location was significant positive predictor after both droughts, biomass density and slope were significant negative predictors only after the Millennium Drought, and distance to the north-west corner of the population, which intercepts hot, dry winds, was a significant positive predictor after the Big Dry only. This suggests that more marginal sites with low biomass and sites located on flat plateaus were more vulnerable initially, but that heat-stress was an important driver of dieback during the Big Dry. Therefore, the causative drivers of dieback may change during population decline. Regeneration occurred predominantly on southern and eastern aspects, which would receive the least solar radiation. While this refugial population is experiencing severe decline, some gullies with lower solar radiation appear to support relatively healthy, regenerating stands of red stringybark, providing hope for persistence in small pockets. Monitoring and managing these pockets during future droughts will be essential to ensure the persistence of this isolated and genetically unique population.

Satellite-based evidence highlights a considerable increase of urban tree cooling benefits from 2000 to 2015

Tree planting is a prevalent strategy to mitigate urban heat. Tree cooling efficiency (TCE), defined as the temperature reduction for a 1% tree cover increase, plays an important role in urban climate as it regulates the capacity of trees to alter the surface energy and water budget. However, the spatial variation and more importantly, temporal heterogeneity of TCE in global cities are not fully explored. Here, we used Landsat-based tree cover and land surface temperature (LST) to compare TCEs at a reference air temperature and tree cover level across 806 global cities and to explore their potential drivers with a boosted regression tree (BRT) machine learning model. From the results, we found that TCE is spatially regulated by not only leaf area index (LAI) but climate variables and anthropogenic factors especially city albedo, without a specific variable dominating the others. However, such spatial difference is attenuated by the decrease of TCE with tree cover, most pronounced in midlatitude cities. During the period 2000-2015, more than 90% of analyzed cities showed an increasing trend in TCE, which is likely explained by a combined result of the increase in LAI, intensified solar radiation due to decreased aerosol content, increase in urban vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and decrease of city albedo. Concurrently, significant urban afforestation occurred across many cities showing a global city-scale mean tree cover increase of 5.3 ± 3.8% from 2000 to 2015. Over the growing season, such increases combined with an increasing TCE were estimated to on average yield a midday surface cooling of 1.5 ± 1.3°C in tree-covered urban areas. These results are offering new insights into the use of urban afforestation as an adaptation to global warming and urban planners may leverage them to provide more cooling benefits if trees are primarily planted for this purpose.

Detecting patterns of post-fire pine regeneration in a Madrean Sky Island with field surveys and remote sensing

The American Southwest is experiencing drastic increases in aridity and wildfire incidence, triggering conversion of some frequent surface forests to non-forest. Extensive research has focused on these dynamics in regional ponderosa pine forests, but we know much less about Madrean pine-oak forests, which are broadly distributed from the Sierra Madre in Mexico to the Sky Island mountain ranges in the U.S. Increased fire incidence and drought in these forests are limiting pine regeneration and driving conversion of biodiverse forests to oak shrublands. We investigated regeneration patterns in Pinus engelmannii and P. leiophylla during severe drought 10 years after the Horseshoe Two Megafire in the Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona-a follow-up to an assessment five years post-fire. In long-term plots, we examined changes in pine seedling and resprout recruitment. Past research demonstrated that topography and fire severity influenced pine recruitment across environmental gradients. We investigated here whether Landsat-8 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration estimated by the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) added explanatory value to our understanding of these patterns. Conversion of Madrean pine-oak forest to oak shrublands continued 6-10 years post-fire. A dense, low oak canopy continued to coalesce in sites subject to severe fire. The importance of resprouts in P. leiophylla regeneration accelerated because these plants outgrew competing oak resprouts. Topography and fire severity (dNBR) were important predictors of 2021 patterns of pine recruitment. NDVI added explanatory value to these models, suggesting its potential in tracking forest dynamics. Evapotranspiration did not add value, likely because ECOSTRESS' larger pixel sizes and moving pixel locations created excessive subpixel heterogeneity in this highly dissected landscape. These models suggest that P. engelmannii is more drought sensitive, was more negatively affected by drought and fire, and is more at risk to shifts in climate and wildfires than P. leiophylla.

Effects of drought-induced holm oak dieback on BVOCs emissions in a Mediterranean forest

Climate change is impairing tree physiology and growth, causing an increase in tree dieback in many Mediterranean forests. These desiccation phenomena are leading to changes in land cover and plant community composition. Mediterranean plants are capable to emit large amount of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs), whose emission and biosynthesis is strongly affected by environmental conditions. This study evaluates the seasonal changes in understory species composition in two forest stands in Southern Tuscany characterized by different levels of Quercus ilex L. crown defoliation (low and high defoliation, LD and HD) and the relationship with BVOCs emissions over three years. We found significant changes in the understory plant community following Q. ilex crown defoliation and mortality, observing an increment in the number of shrubs both in HD and LD stands. The environmental sampling of BVOCs fully reflected the changes in vegetation cover and composition, with a reduction in the amount of monoterpene emissions due to the increasing rates of defoliation and mortality of Q. ilex trees. Our results suggest that terpene emissions from Mediterranean forests would be modified by an increase of Q. ilex dieback, with important consequences for functioning of this forest ecosystem and its atmospheric chemistry.

Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios

In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.

How Tree Decline Varies the Anatomical Features in Quercus brantii

Drought has serious effects on forests, especially semi-arid and arid forests, around the world. Zagros Forest in Iran has been severely affected by drought, which has led to the decline of the most common tree species, Persian oak (Quercus brantii). The objective of this study was to determine the effects of drought on the anatomical structure of Persian oak. Three healthy and three declined trees were sampled from each of two forest sites in Ilam Forest. Discs were cut at breast height, and three sapwood blocks were taken near the bark of each tree for sectioning. The anatomical characteristics measured included fiber length (FL), fiber wall thickness (FWT), number of axial parenchymal cells (NPC), ray number (RN), ray width (RW), and number of calcium oxalate crystals. Differences between healthy and declined trees were observed in the abundance of NPC and in RN, FL, and FWT, while no differences occurred in the number of oxalate crystals. The decline had uncertain effects on the FL of trees from sites A and B, which showed values of 700.5 and 837.3 μm compared with 592.7 and 919.6 μm in healthy trees. However, the decline resulted in an increase in the FWT of trees from sites A and B (9.33 and 11.53 μm) compared with healthy trees (5.23 and 9.56 μm). NPC, RN, and RW also increased in declined individuals from sites A and B (28.40 and 28.40 mm−1; 41.06 and 48.60 mm−1; 18.60 and 23.20 μm, respectively) compared with healthy trees (20.50 and 19.63 mm−2; 31.60 and 28.30 mm−2; 17.93 and 15.30 μm, respectively). Thus, drought caused measurable changes in the anatomical characteristics of declined trees compared with healthy trees.

Strategies to mitigate shifts in red oak (Quercus sect. Lobatae) distribution under a changing climate

Red oaks (Quercus sect. Lobatae) are a taxonomic group of hardwood trees, which occur in swamp forests, subtropical chaparral and savannahs from Columbia to Canada. They cover a wide range of ecological niches, and many species are thought to be able to cope with current trends in climate change. Genus Quercus encompasses ca. 500 species, of which ca. 80 make up sect. Lobatae. Species diversity is greatest within the southeastern USA and within the northern and eastern regions of Mexico. This review discusses the weak reproductive barriers between species of red oaks and the effects this has on speciation and niche range. Distribution and diversity have been shaped by drought adaptations common to the species of sect. Lobatae, which enable them to fill various xeric niches across the continent. Drought adaptive traits of this taxonomic group include deciduousness, deep tap roots, ring-porous xylem, regenerative stump sprouting, greater leaf thickness and smaller stomata. The complex interplay between these anatomical and morphological traits has given red oaks features of drought tolerance and avoidance. Here, we discuss physiological and genetic components of these adaptations to address how many species of sect. Lobatae reside within xeric sites and/or sustain normal metabolic function during drought. Although extensive drought adaptation appears to give sect. Lobatae a resilience to climate change, aging tree stands, oak life history traits and the current genetic structures place many red oak species at risk. Furthermore, oak decline, a complex interaction between abiotic and biotic agents, has severe effects on red oaks and is likely to accelerate species decline and fragmentation. We suggest that assisted migration can be used to avoid species fragmentation and increase climate change resilience of sect. Lobatae.

Drivers of Decadal Carbon Fluxes Across Temperate Ecosystems

Long-running eddy covariance flux towers provide insights into how the terrestrial carbon cycle operates over multiple timescales. Here, we evaluated variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) across the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study AmeriFlux core site cluster in the upper Great Lakes region of the USA from 1997 to 2020. The tower network included two mature hardwood forests with differing management regimes (US-WCr and US-Syv), two fen wetlands with varying levels of canopy sheltering and vegetation (US-Los and US-ALQ), and a very tall (400 m) landscape-level tower (US-PFa). Together, they provided over 70 site-years of observations. The 19-tower Chequamegon Heterogenous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 campaign centered around US-PFa provided additional information on the spatial variation of NEE. Decadal variability was present in all long-term sites, but cross-site coherence in interannual NEE in the earlier part of the record became weaker with time as non-climatic factors such as local disturbances likely dominated flux time series. Average decadal NEE at the tall tower transitioned from carbon source to sink to near neutral over 24 years. Respiration had a greater effect than photosynthesis on driving variations in NEE at all sites. Declining snowfall offset potential increases in assimilation from warmer springs, as less-insulated soils delayed start of spring green-up. Higher CO₂ increased maximum net assimilation parameters but not total gross primary productivity. Stand-scale sites were larger net sinks than the landscape tower. Clustered, long-term carbon flux observations provide value for understanding the diverse links between carbon and climate and the challenges of upscaling these responses across space.

Long-term forest monitoring reveals constant mortality rise in European forests

European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which have been exceptional within the last 500 years, both in terms of duration and intensity. These droughts seem to leave remarkable imprints on the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline, with emphasis on a single species, has been scarce so far so that our understanding of mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limited at a continental scale. Here, we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for all major conifers, major broadleaves, as well as a pooled dataset of minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than three million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which can assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model. We found overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates, accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. A generalized linear mixed model identified a previous-year soil moisture anomaly as the most important driver of mortality patterns in conifers, but the response was not uniform across the numerous analysed plots. We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by global change-type droughts in the near future.

Exploring leaf hydraulic traits to predict drought tolerance of Eucalyptus clones

Ongoing changes in climate, and the consequent mortality of natural and cultivated forests across the globe, highlight the urgent need to understand the plant traits associated with greater tolerance to drought. Here, we aimed at assessing key foliar traits, with a focus on the hydraulic component, that could confer a differential ability to tolerate drought in three commercial hybrids of the most important Eucalyptus species utilized in tropical silviculture: E. urophyla, E. grandis and E. camaldulensis. All genotypes exhibited similar water potential when the 90% stomatal closure (Ψgs90) occurs with Ψgs90 always preceding the start of embolism events. The drought-tolerant hybrid showed a higher leaf resistance to embolism, but the leaf hydraulic efficiency was similar among all genotypes. Other traits presented by the drought-tolerant hybrid were a higher cell wall reinforcement, lower value of osmotic potential at full turgor and greater bulk modulus of elasticity. We also identified that the leaf capacitance after the turgor loss, the ratio between cell wall thickness (t) and lumen breadth (b) ratio (t/b)3, and the minimal conductance might be good proxies for screening drought-tolerant Eucalyptus genotypes. Our findings suggest that xylem resistance to embolism can be an important component of drought tolerance in Eucalyptus in addition to other traits aimed at delaying the development of high tensions in the xylem. Highlight Drought tolerance in tropical Eucalyptus hybrids encompasses a high leaf resistance to embolism and a suite of traits aimed at delaying the development of high tensions in the xylem.

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade-off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Holm oak decline is determined by shifts in fine root phenotypic plasticity in response to belowground stress

Climate change and pathogen outbreaks are the two major causes of decline in Mediterranean holm oak trees (Quercus ilex L. subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.). Crown-level changes in response to these stressful conditions have been widely documented but the responses of the root systems remain unexplored. The effects of environmental stress over roots and its potential role during the declining process need to be evaluated. We aimed to study how key morphological and architectural root parameters and nonstructural carbohydrates of roots are affected along a holm oak health gradient (i.e. within healthy, susceptible and declining trees). Holm oaks with different health statuses had different soil resource-uptake strategies. While healthy and susceptible trees showed a conservative resource-uptake strategy independently of soil nutrient availability, declining trees optimized soil resource acquisition by increasing the phenotypic plasticity of their fine root system. This increase in fine root phenotypic plasticity in declining holm oaks represents an energy-consuming strategy promoted to cope with the stress and at the expense of foliage maintenance. Our study describes a potential feedback loop resulting from strong unprecedented belowground stress that ultimately may lead to poor adaptation and tree death in the Spanish dehesa.

No xylem phenotypic plasticity in mature Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica trees after 5 years of throughfall precipitation exclusion

Forest trees are experiencing increasing frequency and intensity of drought events with climate change. We investigated xylem and phloem traits from mature Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies trees after 5 years of complete exclusion of throughfall precipitation during the growing season. Xylem and phloem anatomy, leaf and branch biomass were analysed along top branches of ~1.5 m lenght in 5 throughfall precipitation excluded (TE) and 5 control (CO) trees of both beech and spruce. Xylem traits were analysed on wood cores extracted from the stem at breast height. In the top branches of both species, the lumen diameter (or area) of xylem and phloem conduits did not differ between TE and CO trees. At breast height, TE trees of both species produced narrower xylem rings and conduits. While allocation to branch (BM) and needle biomass (LM) did not change between TE and CO in P. abies, TE F. sylvatica trees allocated proportionally more biomass to leaves (LM) than BM compared with CO. Despite artificial drought increased the mortality in the TE plots, our results revealed no changes in both xylem and phloem anatomies, undermining the hypothesis that successful acclimation to drought would primarily involve increased resistance against air embolism.

Drought acclimation of Quercus ilex leaves improves tolerance to moderate drought but not resistance to severe water stress

Increasing temperature and drought can result in leaf dehydration and defoliation even in drought-adapted tree species such as the Mediterranean evergreen Quercus ilex L. The stomatal regulation of leaf water potential plays a central role in avoiding this phenomenon and is constrained by a suite of leaf traits including hydraulic conductance and vulnerability, hydraulic capacitance, minimum conductance to water vapour, osmotic potential and cell wall elasticity. We investigated whether the plasticity in these traits may improve leaf tolerance to drought in two long-term rainfall exclusion experiments in Mediterranean forests. Osmotic adjustment was observed to lower the water potential at turgor loss in the rainfall-exclusion treatments, thus suggesting a stomatal closure at more negative water potentials and a more anisohydric behaviour in drier conditions. Conversely, leaf hydraulic conductance and vulnerability did not exhibit any plasticity between treatments so the hydraulic safety margins were narrower in the rainfall-exclusion treatments. The sequence of leaf responses to seasonal drought and dehydration was conserved among treatments and sites but trees were more likely to suffer losses of turgor and hydraulic functioning in the rainfall-exclusion treatments. We conclude that leaf plasticity might help the trees to tolerate moderate drought but not to resist severe water stress.

Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe

Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980–2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO₂ emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.

Nocturnal warming accelerates drought-induced seedling mortality of two evergreen tree species

Extreme drought is one of the key climatic drivers of tree mortality on a global scale. However, it remains unclear whether the drought-induced tree mortality will increase under nocturnal climate warming. Here we exposed seedlings of two wide-ranging subtropical tree species, Castanopsis sclerophylla and Schima superba, with contrasting stomatal regulation strategies to prolonged drought under ambient and elevated night-time temperature by 2 °C. We quantified the seedling survival time since drought treatment by measuring multiple leaf traits such as leaf gas exchange, predawn leaf water potential and water-use efficiency. The results showed that all seedlings in the ambient temperature died within 180 days and 167 days of drought for C. sclerophylla and S. superba, respectively. Night warming significantly shortened the survival time of C. sclerophylla, by 31 days, and S. superba by 28 days, under the drought treatment. A survival analysis further showed that seedlings under night warming suffered a 1.6 times greater mortality risk than those under ambient temperature. Further analyses revealed that night warming suppressed net leaf carbon gain in both species by increasing the nocturnal respiratory rate of S. superba across the first 120 days of drought and decreasing the photosynthetic rate of both species generally after 46 days of drought. These effects on net carbon gain were more pronounced in S. superba than C. sclerophylla. After 60 days of drought, night warming decreased the predawn leaf water potential and leaf water-use efficiency of C. sclerophylla but not S. superba. These contrasting responses are partially due to variations in stomatal control between the two species. These findings suggest that stomatal traits can regulate the response of leaf gas exchange and plant water-use to nocturnal warming during drought. This study indicates that nocturnal warming can accelerate tree mortality during drought. Night warming accelerates the mortality of two subtropical seedlings under drought.Night warming differently affects the drought response of leaf gas exchange and plant water-use between the two species due to species-specific stomatal morphological traits.Carbon metabolism changes and hydraulic damage play differential roles in driving night-warming impacts on the drought-induced mortality between the two species.

Determining the role of climate change in India's past forest loss

Tropical forests in India have declined at an alarming rate over the past century, with extensive literature focusing on the high contributions of agricultural expansions to deforestation, while the effects of climate change have largely been overlooked. Climate change effects, such as increasing temperatures, drought and flooding, have already occurred, and are projected to worsen. Climate velocity, a metric that accounts for spatial heterogeneity in climate, can help identify contiguous areas under greater climate stress and potential climate refuges in addition to traditional temporal trends. Here, we examined the relative contribution of climate changes to forest loss in India during the period 2001-2018, at two spatial (regional and national) and two temporal (seasonal and annual) scales. This includes, for the first time, a characterization of climate velocity in the country. Our findings show that annual forest loss increased substantially over the 17-year period examined (2001-2018), with the majority of forest loss occurring in the Northeast region. Decreases in temporal trends of temperature and precipitation were most associated with forest losses, but there was large spatial and seasonal variation in the relationship. In every region except the Northeast, forest losses were correlated with faster velocities of at least one climate variable but overlapping areas of high velocities were rare. Our findings indicate that climate changes have played an important role in India's past forest loss, but likely remain secondary to other factors at present. We stress concern for climates velocities recorded in the country, reaching 97 km year-1 , and highlight that understanding the different regional and seasonal relationships between climatic conditions and forest distributions will be key to effective protection of the country's remaining forests as climate change accelerates.

Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift

Despite the acceleration of climate change, erroneous assumptions of climate stationarity are still inculcated in the management of water resources in the United States (US). The US system for drought detection, which triggers billions of dollars in emergency resources, adheres to this assumption with preference towards 60-year (or longer) record lengths for drought characterization. Using observed data from 1,934 Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) sites across the US, we show that conclusions based on long climate records can substantially bias assessment of drought severity. Bias emerges by assuming that conditions from the early and mid 20th century are as likely to occur in today’s climate. Numerical simulations reveal that drought assessment error is relatively low with limited climatology lengths (~30 year) and that error increases with longer record lengths where climate is changing rapidly. We assert that non-stationarity in climate must be accounted for in contemporary assessments to more accurately portray present drought risk.

Climate has changed over the last century, yet this change is seldom accounted for in drought assessment. This study quantifies drought bias due to climate change and suggests adjustment to align monitoring with contemporary risk.

Impact of an Extremely Dry Period on Tree Defoliation and Tree Mortality in Serbia

This paper presents research results on forest decline in Serbia. The results were obtained through monitoring defoliation of 34 tree species at 130 sample plots during the period from 2004 to 2018. This research aimed to determine whether the occurrence of defoliation and tree mortality were caused by drought. Defoliation was assessed in 5% steps according to the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) methodology. All the trees recorded as dead were singled out, and annual mortality rates were calculated. To determine changes in air temperature and precipitation regimes during the study period, we processed and analysed climatic data related to air temperature and precipitation throughout the year and in the growing season at 28 main weather stations in Serbia. Tree mortality patterns were established by classifying trees into three groups. The first group of trees exhibited a gradual increase in defoliation during the last few years of monitoring, with dying as the final outcome. The second group was characterised by sudden death of trees. The third group of trees reached a higher degree of defoliation immediately after the first monitoring year, and the trees died after several years. Tree mortality rates were compared between years using the Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the most common methods used to monitor drought. The most intensive forest decline was recorded during the period from 2013 to 2016, when the largest percentage of the total number of all trees died. According to the annual mortality rates calculated for the three observation periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018) the highest forest decline rate was recorded in the period from 2014 to 2018, with no statistically significant difference between broadleaved and coniferous tree species. As the sample of coniferous species was small, the number of sample plots should be increased in order to achieve better systematic forest condition monitoring in Serbia. The analysis of the relationship between defoliation and climatic parameters proved the correlation between them. It was noted that the forest decline in Serbia was preceded by an extremely dry period with high temperatures from 2011 to 2013, supporting the hypothesis that it was caused by drought. We therefore conclude that these unfavourable climatic conditions had serious and long-term consequences on forest ecosystems in Serbia.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Variations in leaf water status and drought tolerance of dominant tree species growing in multi-aged tropical forests in Thailand

Large-scale abandoned agricultural areas in Southeast Asia resulted in patches of forests of multiple successions and characteristics, challenging the study of their responses to environmental changes, especially under climatic water stress. Here, we investigated seasonal variation in leaf water status and drought tolerance of dominant tree species in three multi-aged tropical forests, ranging from 5 to > 200 years old, with contrasting soil moisture in Thailand. Seasonal variation in leaf water status differed among the forests with trees in young and intermediate sites demonstrating larger differences between seasons than the old-growth forest. Although vulnerability to embolism curves revealed that trees in old-growth forest were potentially more sensitive to declining leaf water status than others, they were predicted to lose < 5% of their hydraulic capacity as opposed to 13% for the trees in the younger sites. Our results suggest that the responses to water stress of tree species in different forest ages greatly vary with a tendency of trees in younger sites to be more resilience than those in older sites. Such information would benefit the selection of tree species that could adapt well to specific environments, thus improving the strategies for managing forests of different ages under a warmer future.

Strategic Investment in Open Hardware for National Security

Free and open-source hardware (FOSH) development has been shown to increase innovation and reduce economic costs. This article reviews the opportunity to use FOSH as a sanction to undercut imports and exports from a target criminal country. A formal methodology is presented for selecting strategic national investments in FOSH development to improve both national security and global safety. In this methodology, first the target country that is threatening national security or safety is identified. Next, the top imports from the target country as well as potentially other importing countries (allies) are quantified. Hardware is identified that could undercut imports/exports from the target country. Finally, methods to support the FOSH development are enumerated to support production in a commons-based peer production strategy. To demonstrate how this theoretical method works in practice, it is applied as a case study to a current criminal military aggressor nation, who is also a fossil-fuel exporter. The results show that there are numerous existing FOSH and opportunities to develop new FOSH for energy conservation and renewable energy to reduce fossil-fuel-energy demand. Widespread deployment would reduce the concomitant pollution, human health impacts, and environmental desecration as well as cut financing of military operations.

Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests

Climate change can lead to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heat waves increasing the frequency of compound events with unknown impacts on forests. Here we use two independent datasets, a compiled database of tree drought mortality events and the ICP-Forest level I plots, to study the impacts of the simultaneous occurrence of hot summers, with elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and dry years on forest defoliation and mortality across Europe. We focused on tree drought mortality and background mortality rates, and we studied their co-occurrence with compound events of hot summers and dry years. In total, 143 out of 310 mortality events across Europe, i.e. 46% of cases, corresponded with rare compound events characterized by hot summers and dry years. Over the past decades, summer temperature increased in most sites and severe droughts resulted in compound events not observed before the 1980s. From the ICP-Forest plots we identified 291 (1718 trees) and 61 plots (128 trees) where severe defoliation and mortality, respectively, were caused by drought. The analyses of these events showed that 34% and 27% of the defoliation and mortality cases corresponded with rare compound climate events, respectively. Background mortality rates across Europe in the period 1993-2013 presented higher values in regions where summer temperature and VPD more steeply rose, where drought frequency increased. The steady increase in summer temperatures and VPD in Southern and Eastern Europe may favor the occurrence of compound events of hot summers and dry conditions. Giving that both, local and intense tree drought mortality events and background forest mortality rates, are linked to such compound events we can expect an increase in forest drought mortality in these European regions over the next decades.

Adaptive plasticity in plant traits increases time to hydraulic failure under drought in a foundation tree

The viability of forest trees, in response to climate change-associated drought, will depend on their capacity to survive through genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in drought tolerance traits. Genotypes with enhanced plasticity for drought tolerance (adaptive plasticity) will have a greater ability to persist and delay the onset of hydraulic failure. By examining populations from different climate-origins grown under contrasting soil water availability, we tested for genotype (G), environment (E) and genotype-by-environment (G × E) effects on traits that determine the time it takes for saplings to desiccate from stomatal closure to 88% loss of stem hydraulic conductance (time to hydraulic failure, THF). Specifically, we hypothesized that: (i) THF is dependent on a G × E interaction, with longer THF for warm, dry climate populations in response to chronic water deficit treatment compared with cool, wet populations, and (ii) hydraulic and allometric traits explain the observed patterns in THF. Corymbia calophylla saplings from two populations originating from contrasting climates (warm-dry or cool-wet) were grown under well-watered and chronic soil water deficit treatments in large containers. Hydraulic and allometric traits were measured and then saplings were dried-down to critical levels of drought stress to estimate THF. Significant plasticity was detected in the warm-dry population in response to water-deficit, with enhanced drought tolerance compared with the cool-wet population. Projected leaf area and total plant water storage showed treatment variation, and minimum conductance showed significant population differences driving longer THF in trees from warm-dry origins grown in water-limited conditions. Our findings contribute information on intraspecific variation in key drought traits, including hydraulic and allometric determinants of THF. It highlights the need to quantify adaptive capacity in populations of forest trees in climate change-type drought to improve predictions of forest die-back.

Unlocking Drought-Induced Tree Mortality: Physiological Mechanisms to Modeling

Drought-related tree mortality has become a major concern worldwide due to its pronounced negative impacts on the functioning and sustainability of forest ecosystems. However, our ability to identify the species that are most vulnerable to drought, and to pinpoint the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality events, is still limited. Model is useful tools to capture the dynamics of vegetation at spatiotemporal scales, yet contemporary land surface models (LSMs) are often incapable of predicting the response of vegetation to environmental perturbations with sufficient accuracy, especially under stressful conditions such as drought. Significant progress has been made regarding the physiological mechanisms underpinning plant drought response in the past decade, and plant hydraulic dysfunction has emerged as a key determinant for tree death due to water shortage. The identification of pivotal physiological events and relevant plant traits may facilitate forecasting tree mortality through a mechanistic approach, with improved precision. In this review, we (1) summarize current understanding of physiological mechanisms leading to tree death, (2) describe the functionality of key hydraulic traits that are involved in the process of hydraulic dysfunction, and (3) outline their roles in improving the representation of hydraulic function in LSMs. We urge potential future research on detailed hydraulic processes under drought, pinpointing corresponding functional traits, as well as understanding traits variation across and within species, for a better representation of drought-induced tree mortality in models.

Size-mediated effects of climate on tree growth and mortality in Mediterranean Brutia pine forests

The Eastern Mediterranean Basin is experiencing long-term drought conditions that affect the growth and mortality of many forest tree species. We analysed tree rings from 113 Pinus brutia (living and dead) trees of different age (<50, 50-85, >85 years old) and size to study how climatic variation during the 20th century has shaped their radial-growth and mortality patterns. We selected the pine forest on the island of Lesvos (Greece) representing the largest continuous P. brutia forest on the Aegean islands, to develop a chronology that could provide a bridge between the available tree-ring data sets from the Western and Eastern Mediterranean region. The analysis of the novel chronology captured well-known drought events during the 20th century, such as those in 1949, 1990 and 2007, and provided an equation to reconstruct the intensity of droughts (10 month time scale). P. brutia tree-growth indicated a positive trend from the beginning until the 3rd quarter of the 21st century and then flattened for living trees. Trees that eventually died between 2010 and 2019, were characterized by a much lower growth than surviving trees and also illustrated a long-lasting negative growth trend. Precipitation and water availability (inferred from the SPEI drought index) were positively related to the growth of living and dead trees, mainly in the middle and old age classes. Temperature effect on tree growth shifted from negative to positive with increasing age of living trees, but remained always negative across all age classes in trees that eventually died. Our findings verify the positive effect of water availability on tree growth and survival of Mediterranean pines and highlight a size-mediated effect of temperature on tree growth, probably coupled with individual-tree access to underground water resources. Increased air temperatures during various time periods related to tree physiological activity seem to negatively affect tree survival across all age classes, in Mediterranean P. brutia forests, highlighting their potential vulnerability to global warming conditions.

Defoliation Change of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Depends on Previous Year Drought

European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests provide multiple essential ecosystem goods and services. The projected climatic conditions for the current century will significantly affect the vitality of European beech. The expected impact of climate change on forest ecosystems will be potentially stronger in southeast Europe than on the rest of the continent. Therefore, our aim was to use the long-term monitoring data of crown vitality indicators in Croatia to identify long-term trends, and to investigate the influence of current and previous year climate conditions and available site factors using defoliation (DEF) and defoliation change (ΔDEF) as response variables. The results reveal an increasing trend of DEF during the study period from 1996 to 2017. In contrast, no significant trend in annual ΔDEF was observed. The applied linear mixed effects models indicate a very strong influence of previous year drought on ΔDEF, while climate conditions have a weak or insignificant effect on DEF. The results suggest that site factors explain 25 to 30% DEF variance, while similar values of conditional and marginal R² show a uniform influence of drought on ΔDEF. These results suggest that DEF represents the accumulated impact of location-specific stressful environmental conditions on tree vitality, while ΔDEF reflects intense stress and represents the current or recent status of tree vitality that could be more appropriate for analysing the effect of climate conditions on forest trees.

The role of forest structure and composition in driving the distribution of bats in Mediterranean regions

Forests are key native habitats in temperate environments. While their structure and composition contribute to shaping local-scale community assembly, their role in driving larger-scale species distributions is understudied. We used detailed forest inventory data, an extensive dataset of occurrence records, and species distribution models integrated with a functional approach, to disentangle mechanistically how species-forest dependency processes drive the regional-scale distributions of nine forest specialist bats in a Mediterranean region in the south of Spain. The regional distribution patterns of forest bats were driven primarily by forest composition and structure rather than by climate. Bat roosting ecology was a key trait explaining the strength of the bat-forest dependency relationships. Tree roosting bats were strongly associated with mature and heterogeneous forest with large trees (diameters > 425 mm). Conversely, and contrary to what local-scale studies show, our results did not support that flight-related traits (wing loading and aspect ratio) drive species distributional patterns. Mediterranean forests are expected to be severely impacted by climate change. This study highlights the utility of disentangling species-environment relationships mechanistically and stresses the need to account for species-forest dependency relationships when assessing the vulnerability of forest specialists towards climate change.

The Optical Response of a Mediterranean Shrubland to Climate Change: Hyperspectral Reflectance Measurements during Spring

Remote sensing techniques in terms of monitoring plants’ responses to environmental constraints have gained much attention during recent decades. Among these constraints, climate change appears to be one of the major challenges in the Mediterranean region. In this study, the main goal was to determine how field spectrometry could improve remote sensing study of a Mediterranean shrubland submitted to climate aridification. We provided the spectral signature of three common plants of the Mediterranean garrigue: Cistus albidus, Quercus coccifera, and Rosmarinus officinalis. The pattern of these spectra changed depending on the presence of a neighboring plant species and water availability. Indeed, the normalized water absorption reflectance (R975/R900) tended to decrease for each species in trispecific associations (11–26%). This clearly indicates that multispecific plant communities will better resist climate aridification compared to monospecific stands. While Q. coccifera seemed to be more sensible to competition for water resources, C. albidus exhibited a facilitation effect on R. officinalis in trispecific assemblage. Among the 17 vegetation indices tested, we found that the pigment pheophytinization index (NPQI) was a relevant parameter to characterize plant–plant coexistence. This work also showed that some vegetation indices known as indicators of water and pigment contents could also discriminate plant associations, namely RGR (Red Green Ratio), WI (Water Index), Red Edge Model, NDWI1240 (Normalized Difference Water Index), and PRI (Photochemical Reflectance Index). The latter was shown to be linearly and negatively correlated to the ratio of R975/R900, an indicator of water status.

Photoprotective compounds as early markers to predict holm oak crown defoliation in declining Mediterranean savannahs

Dehesas, human-shaped savannah-like ecosystems, where the overstorey is mainly dominated by the evergreen holm oak (Quercus ilex L. subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.), are classified as a global conservation priority. Despite being Q. ilex a species adapted to the harsh Mediterranean environmental conditions, recent decades have witnessed worrisome trends of climate-change-induced holm oak mortality. Holm oak decline is evidenced by tree vigour loss, gradual defoliation and ultimately, death. However, before losing leaves, trees undergo leaf-level physiological adjustments in response to stress that may represent a promising field to develop biochemical early markers of holm oak decline. This study explored holm oak photoprotective responses (pigments, tocopherols and photosynthetic performance) in 144 mature holm oak trees with different health statuses (i.e., crown defoliation percentages) from healthy to first-stage declining individuals. Our results indicate differential photochemical performance and photoprotective compounds concentration depending on the trees' health status. Declining trees showed higher energy dissipation yield, lower photochemical efficiency and enhanced photoprotective compounds. In the case of total violaxanthin cycle pigments (VAZ) and tocopherols, shifts in leaf contents were significant at very early stages of crown defoliation, even before visual symptoms of decline were evident, supporting the value of these biochemical compounds as early stress markers. Linear mixed-effects models results showed an acute response, both in the photosynthesis performance index and in the concentration of foliar tocopherols, during the onset of tree decline, whereas VAZ showed a more gradual response along the defoliation gradient of the crown. These results collectively demonstrate that once a certain threshold of leaf physiological damage is surpassed, that leaf cannot counteract oxidative stress and progressive loss of leaves occurs. Therefore, the use of both photosynthesis performance indexes and the leaf tocopherols concentration as early diagnostic tools might predict declining trends, facilitating the implementation of preventive measures to counteract crown defoliation.

Forest Conservation and Restoration Using the Emberger Index: Cork Oak as Study Case

The Mediterranean Basin is frequently stricken by huge disasters, and it represents an important biodiversity hotspot. Designing a synthetic approach, which is user-friendly with a low cost, that aims to summarize the main climatic factors that determine vegetation geographical ranges is a strategic solution to plan forest restoration actions and quickly act in cases of urgency. Here, we propose an updated version of the Emberger Index, applied to Quercus suber, an emblematic species of many ecosystems in the Mediterranean. Our investigation couples the latest spatially continuous climatic data, a high-resolution distribution map, and modelling techniques. The results evidence the effective benefits of the updated process, with insights into the optimal climatic requirements of a species within its real spatial domain, including projections for the next decades and the detection of putative refugia. Those outputs were not possible before because of a lack of data covering a certain area. Cork oak revealed an excellent study case, able to highlight the potentiality of Emberger’s approach, and understand the ecological amplitude and vulnerabilities of the target species. If genetic information is available, the Emberger Index can even be applied at the haplotype scale, thus benefitting the applied research. Such an index mirrors the optimal plasticity and physiologic characteristics of a species, supporting the decision makers in selecting the correct plants to use in future reforestation and restoration activities.

Short-term forest resilience after drought-induced die-off in Southwestern European forests

Drought-induced die-off in forests is becoming a widespread phenomenon across biomes, but the factors determining potential shifts in taxonomic and structural characteristics following mortality are largely unknown. We report on short-term patterns of resilience after drought-induced episodes of tree mortality across 48 monospecific forests from Morocco to Slovenia. Field surveys recorded plants growing beneath a canopy of dead, defoliated and healthy trees. Site-level structural characteristics and management legacy were also recorded. Resilience was assessed with reference to forest composition (self-replacement), structure, and changes in the climatic suitability of the replacing community relative to the climatic suitability of the dominant pre-drought species. Species climatic suitability was estimated from species distribution models calculated for the baseline 1970-2000 period. Short-term resilience decreased under higher levels of drought-induced damage to the dominant species and with evidences of management legacy. Greater resilience of structural features (fewer gaps, greater canopy height) was observed overall in forests with a larger basal area. Less gaps were also associated with greater woody species richness after drought. Overall, Fagaceae-dominated forests exhibited greater structural resilience than conifer-dominated ones. On those sites that were more climatically suited to the dominant pre-drought species, replacing communities tended to exhibit lower climatic suitability than pre-drought dominant species. There was a greater loss of climatic suitability under a legacy of management and drought intensity, but less so in the replacing communities with higher woody species richness. Our study reveals that short-term forest resilience is determined by pre-drought stand characteristics, often reflecting previous management legacies, and by the impact of drought on both the dominant pre-drought species and post-drought replacing species in terms of their climatic suitability.