Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Review of multi-omics data resources and integrative analysis for human brain disorders

In the last decade, massive omics datasets have been generated for human brain research. It is evolving so fast that a timely update is urgently needed. In this review, we summarize the main multi-omics data resources for the human brains of both healthy controls and neuropsychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, autism, bipolar disorder, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, progressive supranuclear palsy, etc. We also review the recent development of single-cell omics in brain research, such as single-nucleus RNA-seq, single-cell ATAC-seq and spatial transcriptomics. We further investigate the integrative multi-omics analysis methods for both tissue and single-cell data. Finally, we discuss the limitations and future directions of the multi-omics study of human brain disorders.

Effect of smoke-free policies in outdoor areas and private places on children's tobacco smoke exposure and respiratory health: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Smoke-free policies in outdoor areas and semi-private and private places (eg, cars) might reduce the health harms caused by tobacco smoke exposure (TSE). We aimed to investigate the effect of smoke-free policies covering outdoor areas or semi-private and private places on TSE and respiratory health in children, to inform policy.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 13 electronic databases from date of inception to Jan 29, 2021, for published studies that assessed the effects of smoke-free policies in outdoor areas or semi-private or private places on TSE, respiratory health outcomes, or both, in children. Non-randomised and randomised trials, interrupted time series, and controlled before-after studies, without restrictions to the observational period, publication date, or language, were eligible for the main analysis. Two reviewers independently extracted data, including adjusted test statistics from each study using a prespecified form, and assessed risk of bias for effect estimates from each study using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool. Primary outcomes were TSE in places covered by the policy, unplanned hospital attendance for wheezing or asthma, and unplanned hospital attendance for respiratory tract infections, in children younger than 17 years. Random-effects meta-analyses were done when at least two studies evaluated policies that regulated smoking in similar places and reported on the same outcome. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020190563.

FINDINGS

We identified 5745 records and assessed 204 full-text articles for eligibility, of which 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. Of these studies, seven fit prespecified robustness criteria as recommended by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care group, assessing smoke-free cars (n=5), schools (n=1), and a comprehensive policy covering multiple areas (n=1). Risk of bias was low in three studies, moderate in three, and critical in one. In the meta-analysis of ten effect estimates from four studies, smoke-free car policies were associated with an immediate TSE reduction in cars (risk ratio 0·69, 95% CI 0·55-0·87; 161 466 participants); heterogeneity was substantial (I² 80·7%; p<0·0001). One additional study reported a gradual TSE decrease in cars annually. Individual studies found TSE reductions on school grounds, following a smoke-free school policy, and in hospital attendances for respiratory tract infection, following a comprehensive smoke-free policy.

INTERPRETATION

Smoke-free car policies are associated with reductions in reported child TSE in cars, which could translate into respiratory health benefits. Few additional studies assessed the effect of policies regulating smoking in outdoor areas and semi-private and private places on children's TSE or health outcomes. On the basis of these findings, governments should consider including private cars in comprehensive smoke-free policies to protect child health.

FUNDING

Dutch Heart Foundation, Lung Foundation Netherlands, Dutch Cancer Society, Dutch Diabetes Research Foundation, Netherlands Thrombosis Foundation, and Health Data Research UK.

Cystatin C predicts the risk of incident cerebrovascular disease in the elderly: A meta-analysis on survival date studies

BACKGROUND

Stroke is the third leading cause of global year of life lost in all-age and second-ranked cause of disability adjusted life years in middle-aged and elder population. Therefore, it is critical to study the relationship between vascular-related risk factors and cerebrovascular diseases. Several cross-sectional studies have shown that Cystatin C (Cys C) is an independent risk factor for cerebrovascular diseases and levels of Cys C are significantly higher in stroke patients than in healthy individuals. In this meta-analysis, we introduce a Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the causality between Cys C and the risk of cerebrovascular accident in the elderly.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library from 1985 to 2019 for studies on the relationship between serum Cys C and incidence stroke with Cox proportional hazards models. We conducted a subgroup analysis of the selected studies to determine a connection between atherosclerosis and stroke. Finally, 7 research studies, including 26,768 patients without a history of cerebrovascular, were studied.

RESULTS

After comparing the maximum and minimum Cys C levels, the hazard ratio for all types of stroke, including ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, was 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.31) with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 43.0%; P = .119) in a fixed-effect model after pooled adjustment for other potential risk factors. In the subgroup analysis, the hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval for Cys C stratified by atherosclerosis was 1.85 (0.97-2.72). As shown in Egger linear regression test, there was no distinct publication bias (P = .153).

CONCLUSION

Increased serum Cys C is significantly associated with future stroke events in the elderly, especially in patients with carotid atherosclerosis. Thus, serum levels of Cys C could serve as a predicted biomarker for stroke attack.

The economic value of changing mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic breakdown by cause of death

BACKGROUND

We develop a framework for quantifying monetary values associated with changes in disease-specific mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries to help quantify trade-offs involved in investing in mortality reduction due to one disease versus another.

METHODS

We monetized the changes in mortality risk for communicable and non-communicable diseases (CD and NCD, respectively) between 2017 and 2030 for low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries (LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively). We modeled three mortality trajectories ("base-case", "high-performance", and "low-performance") using Global Burden of Disease study forecasts and estimated disease-specific mortality risk changes relative to the base-case. We assigned monetary values to changes in mortality risk using value of a statistical life (VSL) methods and conducted multiple sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In terms of NCDs, the absolute monetary value associated with changing mortality risk was highest for cardiovascular diseases in older age groups. For example, being on the low-performance trajectory relative to the base-case in 2030 was valued at $9100 (95% uncertainty range $6800; $11,400), $28,300 ($24,200; $32,400), and $30,300 ($27,200; $33,300) for females aged 70-74 years in LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively. Changing the mortality rate from the base-case to the high-performance trajectory was associated with high monetary value for CDs as well, especially among younger age groups. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions made in calculating VSL.

CONCLUSIONS

Our framework provides a priority setting paradigm to best allocate investments toward the health sector and enables intersectoral comparisons of returns on investments from health interventions.

Indirect and direct effects of factors associated with diabetes amongst the rural black population in the Dikgale Health and Demographic Surveillance System, South Africa

Background

Diabetes is an enormous, growing clinical and public health problem, which together with hypertension contributes significantly to the high risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) globally.

Aim

To examine the indirect and direct effects of risk factors simultaneously as a network of multiple pathways leading to diabetes in the rurally based adult population (aged 15+) using a household survey.

Methods

This investigation was based on a predictive model using a cross-sectional community-based study to identify the direct and indirect effects of diabetes risk factors in the Dikgale Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) consisting of 15 villages, with 7200 households and a total population of approximately 36 000. Fasting blood glucose and total cholesterol were measured using ILAB 300 with the following cut-off values: high fasting blood glucose 7 mmol/L and triglycerides 1.70 mmol/L.

Results

A total of 1407 individuals were interviewed, of whom 1281 had their blood pressure (BP) measured. The conceptual model was validated by the goodness-of-fit indexes (comparative fit index [CFI] = 1.00, Tucker Lewis index [TLI] = 1.041, root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.001). Hypertension had the strongest direct effect of 0.0918 on diabetes, followed by age (0.0039) and high waist circumference (−0.0023). Hypertension also mediates the effects that high waist circumference (0.0005) and triglycerides (0.0060) have on diabetes status.

Conclusion

The results in this study confirm the conceptual model considered in the risk factors for diabetes and suggest that hypertension, age and high waist circumference are the key variables directly affecting the diabetes status in the South African rural black population. The direct effect of triglycerides on diabetes suggests mediation by some measured factor(s).

Food intake in children and adolescents: a cross-sectional study from 2009/2010 to 2015/2016

The aim was to describe food intake over time in children and adolescents, with respect to age and gender. The present study was a repeated cross-sectional study using self-reported data from a health questionnaire. Data were collected from the School Health Services in south-east Sweden from 44 297 students, 10, 13–14 and 16 years of age, 48 % girls and 52 % boys from 2009/2010 to 2015/2016. Reported intakes for eight foods were analysed in relation to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations. Seventeen per cent of the students reported an intake in line with the recommendations for at least six of the eight foods fish, vegetables, fruit, mealtime beverages, juice/chocolate drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages, sweets/snacks and pastries. Intake of at least two fruits a day was the recommendation that was followed by the lowest proportion of students (30 %), and this result was stable over the study period. There was a gradual increase over time in the proportion of students who reported an intake in line with the recommendations. Younger students compared to older students, as well as girls compared to boys, reported intakes in line with the recommendations to a statistically significant larger extent. Few students reported intakes in line with the recommendations, although the quality of food intake seems to improve over time. The present results indicate a deterioration in reported food intake in the early years of adolescence. Finding methods to support all children and especially older adolescents to eat healthier, including eating more fruit, is of great importance to public health.

Comorbidities of primary headache disorders: a literature review with meta-analysis

Background

Primary headache disorders are common and burdensome conditions. They are associated to several comorbidities, such as cardiovascular or psychiatric ones, which, in turn, contribute to the global burden of headache. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive description of the pooled prevalence of comorbidities of primary headache disorders using a meta-analytical approach based on studies published between 2000 and 2020.

Methods

Scopus was searched for primary research (clinical and population studies) in which medical comorbidities were described in adults with primary headache disorders. Comorbidities were extracted using a taxonomy derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We compared prevalence of comorbidities among headache sufferers against general population using GBD-2019 estimates, and compared comorbidities’ proportions in clinical vs. population studies, and by age and gender.

Results

A total of 139 studies reporting information on 4.19 million subjects with primary headaches were included: in total 2.75 million comorbidities were reported (median per subject 0.64, interquartile range 0.32–1.07). The most frequently addressed comorbidities were: depressive disorders, addressed in 51 studies (pooled proportion 23 %, 95 % CI 20–26 %); hypertension, addressed in 48 studies (pooled proportion 24 %, 95 % CI 22–26 %); anxiety disorders addressed in 40 studies (pooled proportion 25 %, 95 % CI 22–28 %). For conditions such as anxiety, depression and back pain, prevalence among headache sufferers was higher than in GBD-2109 estimates. Associations with average age and female prevalence within studies showed that hypertension was more frequent in studies with higher age and less females, whereas fibromyalgia, restless leg syndrome, and depressive disorders were more frequent in studies with younger age and more female.

Conclusions

Some of the most relevant comorbidities of primary headache disorders – back pain, anxiety and depression, diabetes, ischemic heart disease and stroke – are among the most burdensome conditions, together with headache themselves, according to the GBD study. A joint treatment of headaches and of these comorbidities may positively impact on headache sufferers’ health status and contribute to reduce the impact of a group of highly burdensome diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10194-021-01281-z.

TRPC5 and the path towards analgesic drug development

A recent study by Sadler et al. highlights transient receptor potential canonical 5 (TRPC5) as a potential target for treating pain conditions. This article discusses their findings in the context of analgesic drug development, an urgent pursuit required to combat the opioid crisis and help millions of people with chronic pain.

Sugars, Salt, Saturated Fat and Fibre Purchased through Packaged Food and Soft Drinks in Europe 2015-2018: Are We Making Progress?

The availability, purchase and consumption of foods high in fat, sugars and salt and low in fibre are linked to the high health and economic burden of noncommunicable diseases, including cancer, in Europe. Therefore, assessing the quality of the food offer is key as feedback to decision makers, as well as to identify good practices and areas of the food supply still requiring urgent action. We combined detailed market share and sales data with nutrition composition data to evaluate the nutritional quality of 14 packaged food and soft drinks categories sold across 22 European countries over the 2015–2018 period. Our analysis shows great variability of the nutritional composition within and among packaged food and soft drinks categories across European countries. Our estimates of the market-share weighted mean, a measure that integrates possible changes in nutrient content with the amount of a product sold to consumers, as well as daily per capita nutrient sale estimates, suggest a small but statistically significant progress in certain food categories only. Overall, the amounts of sugars, saturated fat, salt and fibre being sold to European citizens through these products is not improving to an extent to meet public health objectives.

Point-Prevalence Survey for the Hospital-Acquired Infections in Intensive Care Units of Trauma Center in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Northern India

Background  The burden of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) is all assumption based, and the true burden remains unknown in most countries, particularly in the developing countries where healthcare facilities are suboptimal and knowledge is limited.

Methodology  This cross-sectional study was conducted at the trauma center of a tertiary care institute from August to September 2019, to assess the burden of HAI and antibiotic resistance pattern of HAI. The total sample size in our study was 105. Our objective was to estimate the point prevalence of HAI and study the associated factors in a tertiary care hospital.

Result  In this study, the point prevalence of HAI was five to six times higher when compared with that of developed countries. Gram-negative organisms were the predominant bacteria; with Acinetobacter baumannii the most common among them.

Conclusion  Point-prevalence survey is an important objective of the antimicrobial stewardship program; it will be helpful in controlling antimicrobial resistance and this tool plays a significant role in hospital settings. Our study is quite pertinent to assess the point prevalence of HAI. It will help in knowing the current prevalence and pattern of the HAI. Therefore, as healthcare administrators, we can further decrease the HAI for better patient outcomes in the future.

Self-Esteem as a Mediator between Life Satisfaction and Depression among Cardiovascular Disease Patients

This study explores the association between life satisfaction and depression among patients with cardiovascular diseases and whether this association is mediated by self-esteem. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a third-grade hospital. We examined 300 patients with cardiovascular diseases with a mean age of 62.00 years (females, 133). Life satisfaction was associated with depression. Adding self-esteem to the model weakened the strength of the association between the two. Moreover, 34.2% of the effect of life satisfaction on depression could be explained by self-esteem. We found that self-esteem could totally explain the effect of life satisfaction on depression among patients with cardiovascular diseases.

Predicting mortality risk for preterm infants using deep learning models with time-series vital sign data

Mortality remains an exceptional burden of extremely preterm birth. Current clinical mortality prediction scores are calculated using a few static variable measurements, such as gestational age, birth weight, temperature, and blood pressure at admission. While these models do provide some insight, numerical and time-series vital sign data are also available for preterm babies admitted to the NICU and may provide greater insight into outcomes. Computational models that predict the mortality risk of preterm birth in the NICU by integrating vital sign data and static clinical variables in real time may be clinically helpful and potentially superior to static prediction models. However, there is a lack of established computational models for this specific task. In this study, we developed a novel deep learning model, DeepPBSMonitor (Deep Preterm Birth Survival Risk Monitor), to predict the mortality risk of preterm infants during initial NICU hospitalization. The proposed deep learning model can effectively integrate time-series vital sign data and fixed variables while resolving the influence of noise and imbalanced data. The proposed model was evaluated and compared with other approaches using data from 285 infants. Results showed that the DeepPBSMonitor model outperforms other approaches, with an accuracy, recall, and AUC score of 0.888, 0.780, and 0.897, respectively. In conclusion, the proposed model has demonstrated efficacy in predicting the real-time mortality risk of preterm infants in initial NICU hospitalization.

Urinary proteomics for kidney dysfunction: insights and trends

Introduction: Kidney dysfunction poses a high burden on patients and health care systems. Early detection and accurate prediction of kidney disease progression remains a major challenge. Compared to existing clinical parameters, urinary proteomics has the potential to reveal molecular alterations within the kidney that may alter its function before the onset of clinical symptoms. Thus, urinary proteomics has greater prognostic potential for assessment of kidney dysfunction progression.Areas covered: Advances in urinary proteomics for major causes of kidney dysfunction are discussed. The application of urinary extracellular vesicles for studying kidney dysfunction are discussed. Technological advances in urinary proteomics are discussed. The literature was identified using a database search for titles containing 'proteom*' and 'urin*' and published within the past 5 years. Retrieved literature was manually filtered to retain kidney dysfunctions-related studies.Expert opinion: Despite major advances, diagnosis by urinary proteomics has not been fully applied in any clinical settings. This could be attributed to the complex nature of kidney diseases, in addition to the constraints on study power and feasibility of incorporating mass spectrometry techniques in daily routine analysis. Nevertheless, we are confident that advances in urinary proteomics will soon provide superior insights into kidney disease beyond existing clinical parameters.

Association between dual use of e-cigarette and cigarette and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an analysis of a nationwide representative sample from 2013 to 2018

BACKGROUND

The association between the dual use of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) and conventional cigarettes (c-cigarette) and spirometry-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been studied thoroughly.

METHODS

A total of 47,217 participants were identified in the 2013-2018 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; of them, 12,919 participants aged ≥ 40 who underwent spirometry and had no missing data were enrolled. Pulmonary function testing, urinary cotinine, and urinary 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL) levels were compared between dual users, current smokers, former smokers, and non-users using complex sample linear regression analysis. The odds ratio (OR) for COPD was calculated using a complex sample logistic regression model after adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

Among current e-cigarette users, approximately 85% of the participants used c-cigarette concurrently, and 1.3% of all the participants were dual users (2.3% in males and 0.1% in females). Both dual users and current smokers showed higher levels of urine cotinine and NNAL than non-users and former smokers. The weighted prevalence of COPD was the highest in dual users (13.8% for all participants and 14.1% for males). The multivariate-adjusted OR of COPD for male dual users, compared to non-users, was 3.46 (P_trend < 0.001). The OR for COPD was 3.10 (P_trend < 0.001) in middle-aged (40-64 years) and 3.70 (P_trend < 0.001) in older (≥ 65 years) men. In females, the association was not observed and could not be precisely measured because of the small proportion of the smoking population.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual use of e-cigarette and c-cigarette is associated with COPD in males.

Residual malaria in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia: the situation, challenges and climatic drivers of autochthonous malaria

Background

Saudi Arabia and Yemen are the only two countries in the Arabian Peninsula that are yet to achieve malaria elimination. Over the past two decades, the malaria control programme in Saudi Arabia has successfully reduced the annual number of malaria cases, with the lowest incidence rate across the country reported in 2014. This study aims to investigate the distribution of residual malaria in Jazan region and to identify potential climatic drivers of autochthonous malaria cases in the region.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out from 1 April 2018 to 31 January 2019 in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia, which targeted febrile individuals attending hospitals and primary healthcare centres. Participants’ demographic data were collected, including age, gender, nationality, and residence. Moreover, association of climatic variables with the monthly autochthonous malaria cases reported during the period of 2010–2017 was retrospectively analysed.

Results

A total of 1124 febrile subjects were found to be positive for malaria during the study period. Among them, 94.3 and 5.7% were infected with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively. In general, subjects aged 18–30 years and those aged over 50 years had the highest (42.7%) and lowest (5.9%) percentages of malaria cases. Similarly, the percentage of malaria-positive cases was higher among males than females (86.2 vs 13.8%), among non-Saudi compared to Saudi subjects (70.6 vs 29.4%), and among patients residing in rural rather than in urban areas (89.8 vs 10.2%). A total of 407 autochthonous malaria cases were reported in Jazan region between 2010 and 2017. Results of zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis showed that monthly average temperature and relative humidity were the significant climatic determinants of autochthonous malaria in the region.

Conclusion

Malaria remains a public health problem in most governorates of Jazan region. The identification and monitoring of malaria transmission hotspots and predictors would enable control efforts to be intensified and focused on specific areas and therefore expedite the elimination of residual malaria from the whole region.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03846-4.

Disability trajectories prior to death for ten leading causes of death among middle-aged and older adults in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Prolonged life expectancy is associated with increased prevalence of chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the different disability trajectories for the top ten leading causes of death in Taiwan .

METHODS

A total of 2,431 participants aged 50-96 in 1996 from the Taiwan longitudinal study on aging (TLSA) who died from 1996 to 2016 were analyzed. Integration of Cause of Death Data and TLSA helped sort out participants who had died from the ten leading causes of death. The level of physical disability was evaluated with the Activities of Daily Living Scale (ADLs), ranging from 0 to 6 points, in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011. A multilevel model was used to investigate the levels and rates of change in disability development before death.

RESULTS

The outcome of the research showed that the earliest group to experience physical limitation was individuals living with diabetes. The groups with the highest ADL scores were participants with diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, and hypertension-related diseases. Most groups reach ADL scores ≥ 1 (mild-level) during 4-6 years before death except chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis and injury.

CONCLUSIONS

People who had died from the ten leading causes of death experienced different disability trajectories before death. The trajectory of the participants who had died from diabetes showed a unique pattern with the earliest occurrence and more severe deterioration in terms of development of disabilities. Disability trajectories provide a prediction of survival status for middle-aged and older adults associated with the ten leading causes of death.

Government plans in the 2016 and 2021 Peruvian presidential elections: A natural language processing analysis of the health chapters

Background: While clinical medicine has exploded, electronic health records for Natural Language Processing (NLP) analyses, public health, and health policy research have not yet adopted these algorithms. We aimed to dissect the health chapters of the government plans of the 2016 and 2021 Peruvian presidential elections, and to compare different NLP algorithms. Methods: From the government plans (18 in 2016; 19 in 2021) we extracted each sentence from the health chapters. We used five NLP algorithms to extract keywords and phrases from each plan: Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF), Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), TextRank, Keywords Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (KeyBERT), and Rapid Automatic Keywords Extraction (Rake). Results: In 2016 we analysed 630 sentences, whereas in 2021 there were 1,685 sentences. The TF-IDF algorithm showed that in 2016, nine terms appeared with a frequency of 0.10 or greater, while in 2021 43 terms met this criterion. The LDA algorithm defined two groups. The first included terms related to things the population would receive (e.g., ’insurance’), while the second included terms about the health system (e.g., ’capacity’). In 2021, most of the government plans belonged to the second group. The TextRank analysis provided keywords showing that ’universal health coverage’ appeared frequently in 2016, while in 2021 keywords about the COVID-19 pandemic were often found. The KeyBERT algorithm provided keywords based on the context of the text. These keywords identified some underlying characteristics of the political party (e.g., political spectrum such as left-wing). The Rake algorithm delivered phrases, in which we found ’universal health coverage’ in 2016 and 2021. Conclusion: The NLP analysis could be used to inform on the underlying priorities in each government plan. NLP analysis could also be included in research of health policies and politics during general elections and provide informative summaries for the general population.

Systemic inflammation and the relationship between periodontitis, edentulism, and all-cause mortality: A 17-year prospective cohort study

AIM

The aim was to investigate the role of systemic inflammation in the relationship between periodontitis, edentulism, and all-cause mortality in a group of men in Northern Ireland aged 58-72 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A representative sample of 1558 men had a detailed dental examination between 2001 and 2003. The primary end point was death from any cause. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to assess the longitudinal relationship between periodontitis, edentulism, and all-cause mortality. Accelerated failure time modelling was performed to investigate the mediating role of systemic inflammation.

RESULTS

Mean age of the men at baseline was 64.3 (standard deviation 2.9) years. During a median follow-up of 17 years, 500 (32.1%) men died. After adjustment for confounding variables, compared to men with no/mild periodontitis, edentulous men had a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.52 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.99) p < .01 and for those with severe periodontitis, it was 1.34 (95% CI 1.06-1.70) p = .01. Systemic inflammation accounted only for a minor mediating pathway effect of 10%.

CONCLUSIONS

There was evidence in this group of men that those who were edentulous or had severe periodontitis had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality. Systemic inflammation was not a major explanatory mediator of this association.

Living with Long Term Conditions from the Perspective of Family Caregivers. A Scoping Review and Narrative Synthesis

(1) Background: When living with one or more long term conditions (LTCs), both the patient and the family experience the impact of the condition at different levels. The family's needs and perceptions should be considered in the process of caring for people with LTCs. The aim of this review is to understand "the process of living with LTCs" from a family perspective. (2) Methods: A scoping review and narrative synthesis were conducted using a systematic methodology in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science and PsycINFO, in English and Spanish, including evidence from 2018. (3) Results: A total of 28 articles were included in the review. Acceptance, coping, self-management, integration, and adjustment were key attributes in the process of living with LTCs from the perspective of family caregivers that interrelated in a dynamic way through different mechanisms: being aware of the changing situation, personal networks, information and education, personal conditions, attitude to life and communication. (4) Conclusions: The five attributes that comprise living with LTCs from the perspective of the family caregiver are closely connected of to those of patients living with LTCs; however, self-management and integration have a different meaning and application.

A phenomapping-derived tool to personalize the selection of anatomical vs. functional testing in evaluating chest pain (ASSIST)

AIMS

Coronary artery disease is frequently diagnosed following evaluation of stable chest pain with anatomical or functional testing. A more granular understanding of patient phenotypes that benefit from either strategy may enable personalized testing.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using participant-level data from 9572 patients undergoing anatomical (n = 4734) vs. functional (n = 4838) testing in the PROMISE (PROspective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) trial, we created a topological representation of the study population based on 57 pre-randomization variables. Within each patient's 5% topological neighbourhood, Cox regression models provided individual patient-centred hazard ratios for major adverse cardiovascular events and revealed marked heterogeneity across the phenomap [median 1.11 (10th to 90th percentile: 0.52-2.61]), suggestive of distinct phenotypic neighbourhoods favouring anatomical or functional testing. Based on this risk phenomap, we employed an extreme gradient boosting algorithm in 80% of the PROMISE population to predict the personalized benefit of anatomical vs. functional testing using 12 model-derived, routinely collected variables and created a decision support tool named ASSIST (Anatomical vs. Stress teSting decIsion Support Tool). In both the remaining 20% of PROMISE and an external validation set consisting of patients from SCOT-HEART (Scottish COmputed Tomography of the HEART Trial) undergoing anatomical-first vs. functional-first assessment, the testing strategy recommended by ASSIST was associated with a significantly lower incidence of each study's primary endpoint (P = 0.0024 and P = 0.0321 for interaction, respectively), as well as a harmonized endpoint of all-cause mortality or non-fatal myocardial infarction (P = 0.0309 and P < 0.0001 for interaction, respectively).

CONCLUSION

We propose a novel phenomapping-derived decision support tool to standardize the selection of anatomical vs. functional testing in the evaluation of stable chest pain, validated in two large and geographically diverse clinical trial populations.

Trends of the global, regional and national incidence of malaria in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 and implications for malaria prevention

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a life-threatening disease worldwide, but lacks studies on its incidence at the global level. We aimed to describe global trends and regional diversities in incidence of malaria infection, to make global tailored implications for malaria prevention.

METHODS

We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and absolute number of malaria episodes showed the epidemic status of malaria infection. The estimated annual percentage change of ASR and changes in malaria episodes quantified the malaria incidence trends. The connection between ASRs and traveller number indicated infection risk for travellers.

RESULTS

Globally, the malaria ASR decreased by an average 0.80% (95% confidence interval 0.58-1.02%) per year from 1990 to 2019; however, it slightly increased from 3195.32 per 100 000 in 2015 to 3247.02 per 100 000 in 2019. The incidence rate of children under 5 was higher than other age groups. A total of 40 countries had higher ASRs in 2019 than in 2015, with the largest expansion in Cabo Verde (from 2.02 per 100 000 to 597.00 per 100 000). After 2015, the ASRs in high-middle, middle and low-middle Socio-demographic Index regions began to rise and the uptrends remained in 2019. Central, Western and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASRs since 1990, and traveller number in Eastern and Western Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 31.24 and 7.58%, respectively, from 2017 to 2018. Especially, most countries with ASR over 10 000 per 100 000 had increase in traveller number from 2017 to 2018, with the highest change by 89.56% in Mozambique.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria is still a public health threat for locals and travellers in Sub-Saharan Africa and other malaria-endemic areas, especially for children under 5. There were unexpected global uptrends of malaria ASRs from 2015 to 2019. More studies are needed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination.

Translational Pharmacogenomics: Discovery, Evidence Synthesis and Delivery of Race-Conscious Medicine

Response to medications, the principal treatment modality for acute and chronic diseases, is highly variable, with 40-70% of patients exhibiting lack of efficacy or adverse drug reactions. With ~ 15-30% of this variability explained by genetic variants, pharmacogenomics has become a valuable tool in our armamentarium for optimizing treatments and is poised to play an increasing role in clinical care. This review presents the progress made toward elucidating genetic underpinnings of drug response including discovery of race/ancestry-specific pharmacogenetic variants and discusses the current evidence and evidence framework for actionability. The review is framed in the context of changing demographics and evolving views related to race and ancestry. Finally, it highlights the vital role played by cohort studies in elucidating genetic differences in drug response across race and ancestry and the informal collaborations that have enabled the field to bridge the "bench to bedside" translational gap.

Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: the current status, temporal trends and their attributable risk factors in 60 countries in 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

Globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) imposes a substantial burden on healthcare systems and confers considerable medical expenditures. We aimed to evaluate the global and regional burden in epidemiological trends and factors associated with the incidence and mortality of CRC.

METHODS

We used data from the GLOBOCAN database to estimate CRC incidence and mortality worldwide in 2020 and their association with the human development index (HDI). Trends of age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality in 60 countries (2000-2019) were evaluated by Joinpoint regression analysis using data of Global Burden of Disease 2019. The association between exposure to country-level lifestyle, metabolic and socioeconomic factors obtained from the World Health Organization Global Health Observatory and World Bank DataBank data and CRC incidence and mortality was determined by multivariable linear regression.

RESULTS

CRC incidence and mortality varied greatly in the 60 selected countries, and much higher incidence and mortality were observed in countries with higher HDIs, and vice versa. From 2000 to 2019, significant increases of incidence and mortality were observed for 33 countries (average annual percent changes [AAPCs], 0.24-3.82) and 18 countries (AAPCs, 0.41-2.22), respectively. A stronger increase in incidence was observed among males (AAPCs, 0.36-4.54) and individuals <50 years (AAPCs, 0.56-3.86). Notably, 15 countries showed significant decreases in both incidence (AAPCs, -0.24 to -2.19) and mortality (AAPCs, -0.84 to -2.74). A significant increase of incidence among individuals <50 years was observed in 30 countries (AAPCs, 0.28-3.62). Countries with higher incidence were more likely to have a higher prevalence of alcohol drinking, higher level of cholesterol level, higher level of unemployment, and a poorer healthcare system.

CONCLUSIONS

Some high-HDI countries showed decreasing trends in CRC incidence and mortality, whereas developing countries that previously had low disease burden showed significantly increased incidence and mortality trends, especially in males and populations ≥50 years, which require targeted preventive health programs.

In-Cell Labeling and Mass Spectrometry for Systems-Level Structural Biology

Biological systems have evolved to utilize proteins to accomplish nearly all functional roles needed to sustain life. A majority of biological functions occur within the crowded environment inside cells and subcellular compartments where proteins exist in a densely packed complex network of protein-protein interactions. The structural biology field has experienced a renaissance with recent advances in crystallography, NMR, and CryoEM that now produce stunning models of large and complex structures previously unimaginable. Nevertheless, measurements of such structural detail within cellular environments remain elusive. This review will highlight how advances in mass spectrometry, chemical labeling, and informatics capabilities are merging to provide structural insights on proteins, complexes, and networks that exist inside cells. Because of the molecular detection specificity provided by mass spectrometry and proteomics, these approaches provide systems-level information that not only benefits from conventional structural analysis, but also is highly complementary. Although far from comprehensive in their current form, these approaches are currently providing systems structural biology information that can uniquely reveal how conformations and interactions involving many proteins change inside cells with perturbations such as disease, drug treatment, or phenotypic differences. With continued advancements and more widespread adaptation, systems structural biology based on in-cell labeling and mass spectrometry will provide an even greater wealth of structural knowledge.

Disentangling treatment pathways for knee osteoarthritis: a study protocol for the TREATright study including a prospective cohort study, a qualitative study and a cost-effectiveness study

INTRODUCTION

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is associated with chronic knee pain and functional disability that negatively affect the ability to carry out normal daily activities. Patients are offered a large variety of non-surgical treatments, often not in accordance with clinical guidelines. This observational study will provide a comprehensive overview of treatment pathways for knee OA during the first 2 years after consulting an orthopaedic surgeon, including timing and order of treatment modalities, predictors of treatment outcomes, cost-effectiveness of treatment pathways and patients' views on different treatment pathways.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Patients with primary referrals to an orthopaedic surgeon due to knee OA are consecutively invited to participate and fill out a questionnaire prior to their consultation with an orthopaedic surgeon. Follow-up questionnaires will be obtained at 6 and 24 months after inclusion. Based on a prospective cohort study design, including questionnaires and register data, we will (1) describe treatment pathways for knee OA during the first 2 years after consulting an orthopaedic surgeon; (2) describe the characteristics of patients choosing different treatment pathways; (3) develop predictive models for patient-self-determined classifications of good and poor treatment outcomes; (4) evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatment pathways that live up to clinical guidelines versus pathways that do not; based on a qualitative study design using semistructured individual interviews, we will (5) describe the patients' perspectives on treatment pathways for knee OA.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study is approved by the Danish regional ethical committee (journal number H-17017295) and the Danish Data Protection Agency (journal number AHH-2017-072). Data will be anonymised and handled in line with the General Data Protection Regulation and the Danish Data Protection Act. The study results will be submitted to international open-access peer-reviewed journals and disseminated at conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03746184, pre-results.

Global, regional, and national burden of severe periodontitis, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIM

Up-to-date epidemiological studies on the global burden of severe periodontitis is scarce. This study aimed to present the latest estimates for prevalence of severe periodontitis from 1990 to 2019, by region, age, and level of socio-demographic development.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 were used to investigate burden and trends of prevalence of severe periodontitis and its association with socio-demographic development at global, regional, and national level. Decomposition analysis was performed to explore the contribution of demographic and epidemiological factors to the evolving burden of severe periodontitis.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 1.1 billion (95% uncertainty interval: 0.8-1.4 billion) prevalent cases of severe periodontitis globally. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence rate of severe periodontitis increased by 8.44% (6.62%-10.59%) worldwide. Prevalence of severe periodontitis is higher among less developed countries/regions. Global population growth accounted for 67.9% of the increase in the number of prevalent cases of severe periodontitis from 1990 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of severe periodontitis has been substantial and increasing over the past three decades. Upstream policy changes are urgently needed to address the global public health challenge of severe periodontitis.

Challenges associated with recovery from blunt thoracic injuries from hospital admission to six-months after discharge: A qualitative interview study

BACKGROUND

Recovery for patients presenting to trauma services globally with blunt thoracic injury (BTI) remains challenging with substantial levels of physical, psychological socio-economic burden. The aim of this study is to examine the challenges experienced by patients with BTI from hospital admission to 6-months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

Participants were recruited from trauma patients admitted with BTI and were recruited from 7 sites across England and Wales between March and June 2019. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at six-months after discharge from hospital, and in total 11 interviews were undertaken. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed with reflexive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Two themes were identified within the data: (i) Challenges within the acute hospital admission where pain and analgesic management and the processes of investigation and treatment were the sources of most challenges to recovery. (ii) Challenges within the post-discharge recovery journey, where managing pain at home, unidentified injuries, and mental well-being impacted most on recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

This study adds to the body of qualitative evidence surrounding recovery from major trauma and the patient experience within the recovery journey after BTI and It is important that clinicians consider the whole recovery journey as a continuous process rather than two isolated processes.

The estimated burden of 15 vaccine-preventable diseases from 2008 to 2020 in Japan: A transition by the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Evaluating the national burdens across multiple vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) can be informative to identify the areas for improvements in the national immunization program.

METHODS

The annual burden of diseases from 2008 to 2020 in Japan were calculated with the incidence- and pathogen-based approach for the 15 VPDs (hepatitis B virus infection, human papillomavirus (HPV), influenza, invasive pneumococcal disease, invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease, invasive meningococcal disease, Japanese encephalitis, measles, mumps, pertussis, rotavirus, rubella, tetanus, tuberculosis and varicella), using disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

The average annual burden between 2008 and 2020 is the highest in influenza (114,129 DALY/year), followed by HPV infection, hepatitis B virus infection, tuberculosis and mumps (109,782, 69,883, 23,855 and 5693 DALY/year). In the pre-COVID-19 period (2008-2019), the decreasing trend of burden was observed in hepatitis B virus infection, invasive pneumococcal disease, invasive Hib disease, tuberculosis and varicella. HPV infection is the only VPD which had more than 100,000 DALY/year for all years during the study period. In 2020, the estimated annual burdens are decreased in influenza (71%), invasive pneumococcal disease (51%), invasive Hib diseases (54%), invasive meningococcal disease (64%), measles (98%), mumps (47%) pertussis (83%), rotavirus infection (95%), rubella (94%) and varicella (35%) compared with those in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrated decreasing trends of burdens for some VPDs, while a persistently high burden has been observed for other VPDs, including HPV infection. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic reductions in the burdens of many VPDs in 2020.

Strengthening Knowledge to Practice on Effective Salt Reduction Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The objective of this review was to consolidate available published information on the implementation and evaluation of salt reduction interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

RECENT FINDINGS

The Science of Salt database (made up of studies identified in a weekly Medline search) was used to retrieve articles related to the implementation of salt reduction interventions from June 2013 to February 2020. Studies that measured the effects of the interventions in LMICs, based on four outcome measures-salt intake; sodium levels in foods; knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours (KABs) towards salt; and blood pressure-were included. Results were summarised overall and according to subgroups of intervention type, duration, sample size, country's income class, and regional classification. The review identified 32 studies, representing 13 upper middle-income and four lower middle-income countries. The main salt reduction interventions were education, food reformulation, and salt substitution; and many interventions were multi-faceted. More studies reported a positive effect of the interventions (decreased salt intake (12/17); lower sodium levels in foods or compliance with agreed targets (6/6); improved KAB (17/19); and decreased blood pressure (10/14)) than a null effect, and no study reported a negative effect of the intervention. However, many studies were of small scale and targeted specific groups, and none was from low-income countries. Consumer education, food reformulation, and salt substitution, either alone or in combination, were effective in their target populations. Supporting scale-up of salt reduction interventions in LMICs is essential to cover broader populations and to increase their public health impact.

Resting-state EEG datasets of adolescents with mild, minimal, and moderate depression

OBJECTIVES

To measure depressive severity of 85 Thai adolescents by using the the Beck Depression Inventory-II and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and to record the resting-state EEG of these participants.

DATA DESCRIPTION

The current data note provides raw data of behavioral (i.e., group, BDI-II score, and PHQ-9 score) and electrophysiological parameters (i.e., absolute and relative EEG powers over 64 electrode sites) of 30, 27, and 28 participants with minimal, mild, and moderate depression, respectively. These data are especially useful to investigate the behavioral and electrophysiological markers of adolescents with subclinical depression. It can also be utilized in comparative analysis among age groups, and races.

Disability-Adjusted Life-Years Associated With Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Secondary Injury

Importance

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) contributes significantly to the global burden of disease.

Objective

To examine the association of ICH and secondary injury with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for the individual patient.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted using data from the Universitätsklinikum Erlangen Cohort of Patients With Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage study. Consecutive patients admitted to a single tertiary care center from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2015, were included. The sample comprised patients with oral anticoagulation-associated ICH (OAC-ICH) or primary spontaneous ICH (non-OAC-ICH). Statistical analysis was conducted from October 1 to December 31, 2020.

Exposures

ICH occurrence and secondary injury.

Main Outcomes and Measures

DALYs, years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD) were analyzed by hematoma location, ICH volume, and secondary injury (ie, hematoma expansion [HE], intraventricular hemorrhage [IVH], and perihemorrhagic edema [PHE]).

Results

Among 1322 patients with ICH, 615 (46.5%) were women and the mean (SD) age at hospital admission was 71 (13) years; ICH was associated with a mean (SD) of 9.46 (8.08) DALYs, 5.72 (8.29) YLL, and 3.74 (5.95) YLD. There were statistically significant differences in mean (SD) DALYs by extent of hematoma volume (< 10 mL ICH: 7.05 [6.79] DALYs; 10-30 mL ICH: 9.91 [8.35] DALYs; >30 mL ICH: 12.42 [8.47] DALYs; P < .001) and ICH location (deep location: 10.60 [8.35] DALYs; lobar location: 8.18 [7.63] DALYs; cerebellum: 8.14 [6.80] DALYs; brainstem: 12.63 [9.21] DALYs; P < .001). Regarding population-level disease burden of secondary injuries after ICH, there was a statistically significant difference in mean (SD) by injury type, with 0.94 (3.19) DALYs for HE, 2.45 (4.16) DALYs for IVH, and 1.96 (2.66) DALYs for PHE (P < .001) among the entire ICH cohort. Regarding individual-level exposure to secondary injuries after ICH, there were a mean (SD) 7.14 (6.62) DALYs for HE, 4.58 (4.75) DALYs for IVH, and 3.35 (3.28) DALYs for PHE among patients with ICH affected by secondary injuries.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that there is a high burden of disability associated with ICH and secondary injuries, and the findings may guide public health strategies. The study findings further suggest that IVH and PHE may be relevant for the overall outcome of patients with ICH, that DALYs may represent a viable outcome parameter for studies to evaluate treatment outcomes in ICH research, and that IVH and PHE may represent potential treatment targets.

Strategies to increase uptake of maternal pertussis vaccination

INTRODUCTION

Pertussis is a highly contagious respiratory disease that results in disproportionate morbidity and mortality in infants who have yet to receive the primary diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine series. In the preceding decades numerous countries began to pursue either prenatal vaccination of pregnant women or postpartum vaccination of caregivers to protect infants. Despite proven benefit, maternal uptake of pertussis vaccine continues to remain suboptimal.

AREAS COVERED

Many studies have been conducted to address the suboptimal uptake of maternal pertussis vaccination. This systematic review was undertaken to systematically identify those studies, highlight the most successful strategies and find the knowledge gaps that need to be filled over the coming years to improve vaccine uptake. Twenty-five studies were identified from six different databases.

EXPERT OPINION

Five different interventions were shown to be successful in promoting uptake of pertussis vaccination: (1) standing orders, (2) opt-in orders, (3) provider education, (4) on-site vaccination and (5) interactive patient education. Three major knowledge gaps were also identified that need to be filled over the coming years: (1) lack of studies in low- and middle-income countries, (2) lack of studies targeting midwives and/or home birth and (3) lack of studies on the process of vaccine communication.

Addressing antimicrobial resistance by improving access and quality of care-A review of the literature from East Africa

Universal access to healthcare, including quality medicines, is a fundamental human right but is still out of reach for many in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An existing framework capturing variability of access to healthcare in low-resource settings includes the 5 dimensions: availability, accessibility, affordability, adequacy, and acceptability. This framework encompasses key components, including health infrastructure and means to access it as well as service organisation, costs, and factors that influence users' satisfaction. However, in reality, the effectiveness of accessed healthcare is measured by the likelihood of a positive outcome. We therefore propose an expansion of this framework to include an additional dimension, "aspects of quality," incorporating quality, which critically influences the ability of the accessed services to generate optimal health outcomes. Within this framework, we explore literature from East Africa likely relevant to a range of LMIC contexts, mainly focusing on the provision of widely used antimicrobials such as antimalarials and antibiotics. We argue that major inadequacies exist across all 6 dimensions of access and quality of drugs and their provision. While the global focus is on curbing excessive antimicrobial use to tackle the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) crisis, major constraints around access shape patients' health-seeking decisions leading to potentially problematic practices that might exacerbate the AMR problem. We advocate for a holistic approach to tackling these inadequacies, encompassing all dimensions of access and quality of healthcare in order to improve health outcomes while simultaneously counteracting the AMR crisis.

Diabetes and heart failure notions from epidemiology including patterns in low-, middle- and high-income countries

About 463 million people are currently living with diabetes and 64 million with heart failure and in addition, substantial proportions of both diseases are undiagnosed. At ages above 65 years prevalence of diabetes is estimated to be around 19% and heart failure at least 10%. In the western world, incidence of both diabetes and heart failure are slightly decreasing while prevalent cases are increasing in high as well as middle and low-income countries due to a general increased longevity and successful prevention and treatment of cardiac disease and of diabetes complications. Therefore, we will see an increase of epidemic proportions of both diabetes and heart failure if novel preventive strategies are not appropriately introduced. Type 1 and type 2 diabetes are both major contributors to the development of heart failure and the combination of diabetes and heart failure severely affects prognosis. In addition, the changing faces of diabetes complications have resulted in heart failure more often being the first manifestation of cardiac complications. An updated scenario on diabetes and heart failure epidemiology to health care providers is important in order to direct resources towards effective preventive strategies.

Global burden of upper respiratory infections in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are among the most common diseases. However, the related burden has not been comprehensively evaluated. Thus, we designed the present study to describe the global and regional burden of URIs from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

A secondary analysis was performed on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of URIs in different sex and age groups, from 21 geographic regions, 204 countries and territories, between 1990 and 2019, using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Countries and territories were categorized according to Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles.

FINDINGS

Globally, the incident cases of URIs reached 17·2 (95% uncertainty interval: 15·4 to 19·3) billion in 2019, which accounted for 42·83% (40·01% to 45·77%) cases from all causes in the GBD 2019 study. The age-standardized incidence rate remained stable from 1990 to 2019, while significant decreases were found in the mortality and DALY rate. The highest age-standardized incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 and the highest age-standardized DALY rates after 2011 were observed in high SDI regions. Among all the age groups, children under five years old suffered from the highest incidence and DALY rates, both of which were decreased with increasing age. Fatal consequences of URIs occurred mostly in the elderly and children under five years old.

INTERPRETATION

The present study provided comprehensive estimates of URIs burden for the first time. Our findings, highlighting the substantial incidence and considerable DALYs due to URIs, are expected to attract more attention to URIs and provide future explorations in the prevention and treatment with epidemiological evidence.

FUNDING

The study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81770057).

The global burden of cirrhosis: A review of disability-adjusted life-years lost and unmet needs

Cirrhosis is a burden on the individual and on public health. The World Health Organization's metric of public health burden is the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years of life lived with disability. The more DALYs attributable to a disease, the greater its burden on public health. Cirrhosis was responsible for 26.8% fewer DALYs in 2019 than in 1990, which is positive, but the reduction in DALYs across the spectrum of diseases in and outside the liver was 34.4%. Hepatitis C (26% of DALYs), alcohol (24%), and hepatitis B (23%) contribute almost equally to the global burden of cirrhosis. The contribution from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (8%) is small but increasing. There is substantial global variation in the burden and causes of cirrhosis. We find that the poorest countries carry the greatest burden of cirrhosis, and that this burden is primarily caused by cirrhosis from hepatitis B infection. Interventions targeting hepatitis B infection are known, but not fully implemented. In more affluent countries, alcohol and hepatitis C are the dominant causes of cirrhosis, but non-alcoholic fatty liver will likely become a dominant cause of cirrhosis in parallel with the increasing prevalence of obesity. We also argue that the World Health Organization underestimates the public health burden associated with cirrhosis because it assigns zero disability to compensated cirrhosis and considers decompensated cirrhosis as only mildly disabling.

A universal outcome measure for headache treatments, care-delivery systems and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

The first manuscript in this series delineated a model of structured headache services, potentially cost-effective but requiring formal cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). We envisaged a need for a new outcome measure for this purpose, applicable to all forms of treatment, care and care-delivery systems as opposed to comparisons of single-modality treatments.

CONCEPTION AND DELINEATION

A literature review confirmed the lack of any suitable established measure. We prioritised construct validity, simplicity, comprehensiveness and expression in intuitive units. We noted that pain was the key burdensome symptom of migraine and episodic tension-type headache (TTH), that pain above a certain level was disabling, that it was difficult to put economic value to pain but relatively easy to do this for time, a casualty of headache leading to lost productivity. Alleviation of pain to a non-disabling level would be expected to bring restoration of function. We therefore based the measure on time spent in the ictal state (TIS) of migraine or TTH, either as total TIS or proportion of all time. We expressed impact on health, in units of time, as TIS*DW, where DW was the disability weight for the ictal state supplied by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies. If the time unit was hours, TIS*DW yielded hours lived with (or lost to) disability (HLDs), in analogy with GBD's years lived with disability (YLDs).

UTILITY ASSESSMENT

Acute treatments would reduce TIS by shortening attack duration, preventative treatments by reducing attack frequency; health-care systems such as structured headache services would have these effects by delivering these treatments. These benefits were all measurable as HLDs-averted. Population-level estimates would be derived by factoring in prevalence, but also taking treatment coverage and adherence into account. For health-care systems, additional gains from provider-training (promoting adherence to guidelines and, therefore, enhancing coverage) and consumer-education (improving adherence to care plans), increasing numbers within populations gaining the benefits of treatments, would be measurable by the same metric.

CONCLUSIONS

The new outcome measure expressed in intuitive units of time is applicable to treatments of all modalities and to system-level interventions for multiple headache types, with utility for CEA and for informing health policy.

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

AIMS

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Notifications, Malawi

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.

Towards unified and impactful policies to reduce ultra-processed food consumption and promote healthier eating

The global surges in obesity and nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have created a need for decisive new food policy initiatives. A major concern has been the impact of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and ultra-processed drinks on weight gain and on the risk of several NCDs. These foods, generally high in calories, added sugar, sodium, and unhealthy fats, and poor in fibre, protein, and micronutrients, have extensive negative effects on human health and on the environment (due to their associated carbon emission and water use). There is a growing tendency worldwide, and especially in South America, for food companies to add micronutrients to UPFs to make health claims regarding these products, to which food-regulating authorities refer to fake foods. Although more than 45 countries and smaller subregional or urban entities have created taxes on ultra-processed drinks, such as sugar-sweetened beverages, only a few have adopted taxes on snacks and other UPFs, and none have added major subsidies for truly healthy, fresh or minimally processed food for people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Another major focus has been on developing effective package labelling. A smaller number of countries have selected the most impactful warning labels and linked them with other measures to create a mutually reinforcing set of policies; a few other countries have developed effective school food policies. We herein present in-depth results from key countries involved in all these actions and in comprehensive marketing controls, and conclude with our recommendations for the future. This field is quite new; progress to date is substantial, but much more is left to learn.

Evaluating the potential economic and health impact of rotavirus vaccination in 63 middle-income countries not eligible for Gavi funding: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Middle-income countries (MICs) that are not eligible for funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, have been slow to adopt rotavirus vaccines. Few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness and benefit-risk of rotavirus vaccination in these settings. We aimed to assess the potential economic and health impact of rotavirus vaccination in 63 MICs not eligible for funding from Gavi.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and benefit-risk of rotavirus vaccination in 63 MICs not eligible to Gavi funding. We used an Excel-based proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate the number of rotavirus gastroenteritis cases, clinic visits, hospitalisations, and deaths averted by vaccination in children younger than 5 years over a 10-year period. We calculated cost-effectiveness ratios (costs per disability-adjusted life-years averted compared with no vaccination) and benefit-risk ratios (number of hospitalisations due to rotavirus gastroenteritis averted per excess hospitalisations due to intussusception). We evaluated three alternative vaccines available globally (Rotarix, Rotavac, and Rotasiil) and used information from vaccine manufacturers regarding anticipated vaccine prices. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

FINDINGS

Over the period 2020-29, rotavirus vaccines could avert 77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 51-103) cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 21 million (12-36) clinic visits, 3 million (1·4-5·6) hospitalisations, and 37 900 (25 900-55 900) deaths due to rotavirus gastroenteritis in 63 MICs not eligible for Gavi support. From a government perspective, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective in 48 (77%) of 62 MICs considered. The benefit-risk ratio for hospitalisations prevented versus those potentially caused by vaccination exceeded 250:1 in all countries.

INTERPRETATION

In most MICs not eligible for Gavi funding, rotavirus vaccination has high probability to be cost-effective with a favourable benefit-risk profile. Policy makers should consider this new evidence when making or revisiting decisions on the use of rotavirus vaccines in their respective countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Simulation study on the validity of the average risk approach in estimating population attributable fractions for continuous exposures

BACKGROUND

The population attributable fraction (PAF) is an important metric for estimating disease burden associated with causal risk factors. In an International Agency for Research on Cancer working group report, an approach was introduced to estimate the PAF using the average of a continuous exposure and the incremental relative risk (RR) per unit. This 'average risk' approach has been subsequently applied in several studies conducted worldwide. However, no investigation of the validity of this method has been done.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the validity and the potential magnitude of bias of the average risk approach.

METHODS

We established analytically that the direction of the bias is determined by the shape of the RR function. We then used simulation models based on a variety of risk exposure distributions and a range of RR per unit. We estimated the unbiased PAF from integrating the exposure distribution and RR, and the PAF using the average risk approach. We examined the absolute and relative bias as the direct and relative difference in PAF estimated from the two approaches. We also examined the bias of the average risk approach using real-world data from the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer study.

RESULTS

The average risk approach involves bias, which is underestimation or overestimation with a convex or concave RR function (a risk profile that increases more/less rapidly at higher levels of exposure). The magnitude of the bias is affected by the exposure distribution as well as the value of RR. This approach is approximately valid when the RR per unit is small or the RR function is approximately linear. The absolute and relative bias can both be large when RR is not small and the exposure distribution is skewed.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that caution be taken when using the average risk approach to estimate PAF.

Prediction of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among community residents in Shanghai, China - a comparative analysis of risk algorithms

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The accuracy of various 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk models has been debatable. We compared two risk algorithms and explored clustering patterns across different risk stratifications among community residents in Shanghai.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 28,201 residents (aged 40-74 years old) who were free of ASCVD were selected from the Shanghai Survey in China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated by applying the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) and Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR). The agreement was assessed between PCEs and China-PAR using Cohen's kappa statistics. The mean absolute 10-year ASCVD risk calculated by PCEs and China-PAR was about 10.0% and 6.0%, respectively. PCEs estimated that 44.9% of participants [with a 95% confidence interval (CI):44.0%-45.8%] were at high risk, while China-PAR estimated only 16.7% (95%CI:15.8%-18.0%) were at high risk. In both models, the percentage of high ASCVD risk was higher for participants who were older, men, less educated, current smokers, drinkers and manual workers. Among high-risk individuals, almost all participants (PCEs:90.5%; China-PAR:98.6%) had at least one risk factor; hypertension being the most prevalent. The concordance between PCEs and China-PAR was moderate (kappa:0.428, 95%CI: 0.420-0.434) with a better agreement for women (kappa:0.503,95%CI: 0.493-0.513) than for men (kappa:0.211,95%CI: 0.201-0.221).

CONCLUSION

The proportion of participants with a 10-year ASCVD high risk predicted by China-PAR was lower than the results of the PCEs. The risk stratifications of the two algorithms were inconsistent in terms of demographic and life-behaviour characteristics.

A clinical study to optimise a sand fly biting protocol for use in a controlled human infection model of cutaneous leishmaniasis (the FLYBITE study)

Background: Leishmaniasis is a globally important yet neglected parasitic disease transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies. With new candidate vaccines in or near the clinic, a controlled human challenge model (CHIM) using natural sand fly challenge would provide a method for early evaluation of prophylactic efficacy. Methods : We evaluated the biting frequency and adverse effects resulting from exposure of human volunteers to bites of either Phlebotomus papatasi or P. duboscqi, two natural vectors of Leishmania major. 12 healthy participants were recruited (mean age 40.2 ± 11.8 years) with no history of significant travel to regions where L. major-transmitting sand flies are prevalent. Participants were assigned to either vector by 1:1 allocation and exposed to five female sand flies for 30 minutes in a custom biting chamber. Bite frequency was recorded to confirm a bloodmeal was taken. Participant responses and safety outcomes were monitored using a visual analogue scale (VAS), clinical examination, and blood biochemistry. Focus groups were subsequently conducted to explore participant acceptability. Results: All participants had at least one successful sand fly bite with none reporting any serious adverse events, with median VAS scores of 0-1/10 out to day 21 post-sand fly bite. Corresponding assessment of sand flies confirmed that for each participant at least 1/5 sand flies had successfully taken a bloodmeal (overall mean 3.67±1.03 bites per participant). There was no significant difference between P. papatasi and P. duboscqi in the number of bites resulting from 5 sand flies applied to human participants (3.3±0.81 vs 3.00±1.27 bites per participant; p=0.56) .  In the two focus groups (n=5 per group), themes relating to positive participant-reported experiences of being bitten and the overall study, were identified. Conclusions: These results validate a protocol for achieving successful sand fly bites in humans that is safe, well-tolerated and acceptable for participants. Clinicaltrials.gov registration: NCT03999970 (27/06/2019).

Genetic variations of toll-like receptors: Impact on susceptibility, severity and prognosis of bacterial meningitis

Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a serious infectious disease of the central nervous system，which is mainly caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, Group B Streptococcus and Listeria monocytogenes. Throughout the world, BM has become one of the most lethal diseases that commonly occurs in children. Toll like receptors (TLRs) are one of the most important immune defense lines in infectious diseases, and play an essential role in host defense. Accumulating evidence shows that genetic variations in TLRs are associated with host responses in BM. This review aims to summarize the role of different TLRs and their genetic variations in the susceptibility, severity and prognosis of BM and discuss the identified risk factors for better treatment and improvement of the course and outcome of BM.

Mortality beyond emergency threshold in a silent crisis- results from a population-based mortality survey in Ouaka prefecture, Central African Republic, 2020

BACKGROUND

The Central African Republic (CAR) suffers a protracted conflict and has the second lowest human development index in the world. Available mortality estimates vary and differ in methodology. We undertook a retrospective mortality study in the Ouaka prefecture to obtain reliable mortality data.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based two-stage cluster survey from 9 March to 9 April, 2020 in Ouaka prefecture. We aimed to include 64 clusters of 12 households for a required sample size of 3636 persons. We assigned clusters to communes proportional to population size and then used systematic random sampling to identify cluster starting points from a dataset of buildings in each commune. In addition to the mortality survey questions, we included an open question on challenges faced by the household.

RESULTS

We completed 50 clusters with 591 participating households including 4000 household members on the interview day. The median household size was 7 (interquartile range (IQR): 4-9). The median age was 12 (IQR: 5-27). The birth rate was 59.0/1000 population (95% confidence interval (95%-CI): 51.7-67.4). The crude and under-five mortality rates (CMR & U5MR) were 1.33 (95%-CI: 1.09-1.61) and 1.87 (95%-CI: 1.37-2.54) deaths/10,000 persons/day, respectively. The most common specified causes of death were malaria/fever (16.0%; 95%-CI: 11.0-22.7), violence (13.2%; 95%-CI: 6.3-25.5), diarrhoea/vomiting (10.6%; 95%-CI: 6.2-17.5), and respiratory infections (8.4%; 95%-CI: 4.6-14.8). The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was 2525/100,000 live births (95%-CI: 825-5794). Challenges reported by households included health problems and access to healthcare, high number of deaths, lack of potable water, insufficient means of subsistence, food insecurity and violence.

CONCLUSIONS

The CMR, U5MR and MMR exceed previous estimates, and the CMR exceeds the humanitarian emergency threshold. Violence is a major threat to life, and to physical and mental wellbeing. Other causes of death speak to poor living conditions and poor access to healthcare and preventive measures, corroborated by the challenges reported by households. Many areas of CAR face similar challenges to Ouaka. If these results were generalisable across CAR, the country would suffer one of the highest mortality rates in the world, a reminder that the longstanding "silent crisis" continues.

Association between the triglyceride-glucose index and abdominal aortic calcification in adults: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a reliable marker of insulin resistance, which is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) is significantly associated with subclinical atherosclerotic diseases. The present study investigated the relationship between the TyG index and extensive AAC in middle-aged and elderly populations in the United States (US).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed cross-sectional analyses of data from 1419 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2014. AAC was detected using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry on Hologic Discovery model A densitometer, and quantified using the Kauppila score system. Extensive AAC was defined as a Kauppila score ≥5. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the association between AAC and the TyG index. The restricted cubic spline model was used for the dose-response analysis. Extensive AAC was detected in 196 (13.8%) participants. The odds of extensive AAC increased by 41% per unit increase in the TyG index (adjusted odds ratios [OR] = 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.91). The multivariable-adjusted OR and 95% CI of the highest TyG index tertile compared with the lowest tertile was 1.80 (95% CI: 1.11-2.94). Extensive AAC showed a more robust association with the TyG index than with triglycerides or glycemia. The subgroup analyses indicated that the association was consistent irrespective of age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesteremia and smoking status.

CONCLUSION

The TyG index was independently associated with the presence of extensive AAC in the study population. Further studies are required to confirm this relationship.

The Prevalence of Risky Driving Habits in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Road traffic crashes represent a substantial global public health issue. In Saudi Arabia, which is the focus area of this research, road traffic crashes kill over 130,000 people annually, accounting for almost 5% of deaths in that country. A cross-sectional study with 316 participants holding a valid Saudi driver’s license was conducted via the internet from December 2019 to March 2020 to collect information about the prevalence of risky driving habits among Saudi drivers. The sample was predominantly men and aged between 20 and 39, which is representative of the population of drivers in Saudi Arabia. Drivers generally reported engaging in safe behaviors, although they did state that they drove above the legal speed limit, drove aggressively around slow drivers, and became distracted while driving with some frequency. Multivariate analyses suggested men took more risks than women and younger drivers took more risks than older ones. We conclude that the behavior among drivers in Saudi Arabia generally matches those in other cultures and countries, with men and young adults taking the most risks while driving. Preventative strategies should be developed and implemented in Saudi Arabia.

Time Course and Clinical Relevance of Neurological Deterioration After Endovascular Recanalization Therapy for Anterior Circulation Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke

Neurological deterioration (ND) is a devastating complication for patients with ischemic stroke after endovascular recanalization therapy (EVT). We aimed to investigate the time course and clinical relevance of ND after EVT. Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent EVT for large arterial occlusions of the anterior cerebral circulation were enrolled. The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores were assessed before EVT, at the end of EVT, at 24 h (d1), on day 3 (d3), on day 15 (d15), at discharge and anytime when ND was indicated. ND was defined as an increase of ≥ 4 points in the NIHSS score and was divided into acute ND (AD, within 24 h), subacute ND (SD, d1–d3), and delayed ND (DD, d3–d15 or discharge). Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we explored predictors and outcomes of ND at different time periods. As a result, of 343 patients, 129 (37.6%) experienced ND, including 90 (26.2%) with AD, 27 (7.9%) with SD and 12 (3.5%) with DD. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that history of hypertension, cardioembolic stroke, lower Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS), and poor collaterals were significantly associated with an increased risk of AD; history of hypertension, lower ASPECTS, poor collaterals, and unsuccessful recanalization, with SD; and high admission NIHSS score, with DD. In addition, patients who experienced AD (OR = 10.22, P < 0.001), SD (OR = 15.89, P = 0.004), or DD (OR = 8.31, P = 0.015) were more likely to have poor outcomes. ND was a strong predictor of poor stroke outcomes. Management of related risk factors at different ND time periods might improve the prognosis of EVT.