Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Global burden and influencing factors of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes in adults aged 20-59 years, 1990-2019

Population structure and lifestyles may have contributed to the epidemiological status of Chronic Kidney Disease due to Type 2 Diabetes (CKD-T2D). This study is a secondary data analysis. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, we describe the changes in CKD-T2D burden and its influencing factors in the population aged 20-59 years from 1990 to 2019. Globally, the incidence, death, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rate of CKD-T2D showed an upward trend and increased with age, and the burden in males was higher than that in females. Population growth and aging were important driving factors for the increase of CKD-T2D DALY burden, while high systolic blood pressure and high body-mass index were the primary attributable risk factors. High body-mass index exhibited higher contributions to high Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI) countries, whereas low SDI countries were more impacted by high systolic blood pressure. The population attributable fraction of CKD-T2D DALY caused by high body-mass index was positively correlated with SDI, while high temperature and lead exposure were negatively correlated. Therefore, strengthening disease screening for people aged 20-59 years and formulating early intervention measures based on the level of socioeconomic development may effectively alleviate the burden of CKD-T2D.

Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) reporting tool: developing a checklist for policymakers

INTRODUCTION

Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) is a decision support tool that shows users how a new program, policy, or innovation affects health equity in different population groups. Various HEIA reporting and dissemination tools are available, nevertheless, a practical standard tool to present the results of HEIA in an appropriate period to policymakers is lacking. This work reports the development of a tool (a checklist) for HEIA reporting at the decision-making level, aiming to promote the application of HEIA evidence for improving health equity.

METHODS

This is a mixed-method study that was carried out over four stages in 2022-2023: 1) identifying HEIA models, checklists, and reporting instruments; 2) development of the initial HEIA reporting checklist; 3) checklist validation; and 4) piloting the checklist. We also analyzed the Face, CVR, and CVI validity of the tool.

RESULTS

We developed the initial checklist through analysis of 53 included studies and the opinions of experts. The final checklist comprised five sections: policy introduction (eight subsections), managing the HEIA of policy (seven subsections), scope of the affected population (three subsections), HEIA results (seven subsections), and recommendations (three subsections).

CONCLUSION

Needs assessment, monitoring during implementation, health impact assessment, and other tools such as monitoring outcome reports, appraisals, and checklists are all methods for assessing health equity impact. Other equity-focused indicators, such as the equity lens and equity appraisal, may have slightly different goals than the HEIA. Similarly, the formats for presenting and publishing HEIA reports might vary, depending on the target population and the importance of the report.

Global, regional, and national thyroid cancer age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian predictive modeling studies: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Objective

To analyze the changing trend of the global burden of thyroid cancer (TC) and its associated risk factors using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Methods

This study utilized the GBD 2019 database to analyze the burden trend of TC in various regions and countries from 1990 to 2019, while also examining the age-period-cohort (APC) effect. Additionally, the study used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) and predictive models to forecast TC incidence up until 2030.

Results

According to data from 2019, there were 233,846.64 (95 % UI 211,636.89-252,806.55) cases of TC worldwide. The burden of TC varies among regions and countries, with higher incidence rates observed in moderate and above SDI regions. Age and gender also play a role, with incidence rates peaking in the >95 age group for men and the 70-74 age group for women. Additionally, women have a higher incidence than men. The APC model revealed that the impact of age was most significant among individuals aged 95 years and older, while it was lowest among those aged 0-14 years. Additionally, the period effect showed a relatively low risk of morbidity with a Period RR < 0 during 1990-2004 and a high relative risk of morbidity with a Period RR > 0 during 2005-2019. Furthermore, the cohort effect demonstrated that the relative risk of developing the disease was lower before 1950 and higher after 1950. Predicted values show an increasing trend in thyroid incidence over the next 30 years.

Conclusions

The findings of this study highlight the continued significance of thyroid cancer as a global public health issue. It is crucial to develop targeted interventions that address the specific risk factors associated with thyroid cancer. Furthermore, health policies should be customized and adapted to the unique needs of different regions and populations.

Drivers of the Australian Health System towards Health Care for All: A Scoping Review and Qualitative Synthesis

Background

Australia has made significant progress towards universal access to primary health care (PHC) services. However, disparities in the utilisation of health services and health status remain challenges in achieving the global target of universal health coverage (UHC). This scoping review aimed at synthesizing the drivers of PHC services towards UHC in Australia.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review of the literature published from 1 January 2010 to 30 July 2021 in three databases: PubMed, Scopus, and Embase. Search terms were identified under four themes: health services, Australia, UHC, and successes or challenges. Data were analysed using an inductive thematic analysis approach. Drivers (facilitators and barriers) of PHC services were explained by employing a multilevel framework that included the proximal level (at the level of users and providers), intermediate level (organisational and community level), and distal level (macrosystem or distal/structural level).

Results

A total of 114 studies were included in the review. Australia has recorded several successes in increased utilisation of PHC services, resulting in an overall improvement in health status. However, challenges remain in poor access and high unmet needs of health services among disadvantaged/priority populations (e.g., immigrants and Indigenous groups), those with chronic illnesses (multiple chronic conditions), and those living in rural and remote areas. Several drivers have contributed in access to and utilisation of health services (especially among priority populations)operating at multilevel health systems, such as proximal level drivers (health literacy, users' language, access to health facilities, providers' behaviours, quantity and competency of health workforce, and service provision at health facilities), intermediate drivers (community engagement, health programs, planning and monitoring, and funding), and distal (structural) drivers (socioeconomic disparities and discriminations).

Conclusion

Australia has had several successes towards UHC. However, access to health services poses significant challenges among specific priority populations and rural residents. To achieve universality and equity of health services, health system efforts (supply- and demand-side policies, programs and service interventions) are required to be implemented in multilevel health systems. Implementation of targeted health policy and program approaches are needed to provide comprehensive PHC and address the effects of structural disparities.

[Global disease burden of neonatal jaundice from 1990 to 2019]

OBJECTIVES

To examine the global, regional, and national disease burden of neonatal jaundice.

METHODS

The 2019 Global Burden of Disease database was searched to collect incident cases/incidence and deaths/mortality of neonatal jaundice, as well as global socio-demographic index (SDI) and universal health coverage index (UHCI). The epidemiological trend of neonatal jaundice from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed. The correlations between incidence/mortality of neonatal jaundice and SDI and UHCI were evaluated.

RESULTS

From 601 681 in 1990 to 626 005 in 2019, with a 4.04% increase in global incident cases of neonatal jaundice. The overall age-standardized incidence rate exhibited an increase [estimated annual percent change=0.13 (95%CI: 0.03 to 0.23)] during this period. Additionally, deaths due to neonatal jaundice decreased by 58.83%, from 128 119 in 1990 to 52 742 in 2019. The overall age-standardized mortality rate showed a decrease [estimated annual percent change=-2.78 (95%CI: -3.00 to -2.57)] over the same period. Countries with lower SDI, such as India, Pakistan, and Nigeria, reported a higher proportion of neonatal morbidity and mortality. In 2019, a negative correlation was observed between estimated annual percent change in age-standardized mortality rate and SDI (ρ=-0.320, P<0.05) or UHCI (ρ=-0.252, P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The global incidence of neonatal jaundice is on the rise, while the mortality rate is declining. The burden of neonatal jaundice is influenced by social development, economic factors, and the level of medical care.

National and subnational incidence, mortality and associated factors of colorectal cancer in China: A systematic analysis and modelling study

Background

Due to their known variation by geography and economic development, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in China over the past decades and identify factors associated with CRC among the Chinese population to provide targeted information on disease prevention.

Methods

We conducted a systemic review and meta-analysis of epidemiolocal studies on the incidence, mortality, and associated factors of CRC among the Chinese population, extracting and synthesising data from eligible studies retrieved from seven global and Chinese databases. We pooled age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) for each province, subregion, and the whole of China, and applied a joinpoint regression model and annual per cent changes (APCs) to estimate the trends of CRC incidence and mortality. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses to assess the effect estimates of identified associated risk factors.

Results

We included 493 articles; 271 provided data on CRC incidence or mortality, and 222 on associated risk factors. Overall, the ASIR of CRC in China increased from 2.75 to 19.39 (per 100 000 person-years) between 1972 and 2019 with a slowed-down growth rate (APC1 = 5.75, APC2 = 0.42), while the ASMR of CRC decreased from 12.00 to 7.95 (per 100 000 person-years) between 1974 and 2020 with a slight downward trend (APC = -0.89). We analysed 62 risk factors with synthesized data; 16 belonging to the categories of anthropometrics factors, lifestyle factors, dietary factors, personal histories and mental health conditions were graded to be associated with CRC risk among the Chinese population in the meta-analysis limited to the high-quality studies.

Conclusions

We found substantial variation of CRC burden across regions and provinces of China and identified several associated risk factors for CRC, which could help to guide the formulation of targeted disease prevention and control strategies.

Registration

PROSPERO: CRD42022346558.

The Barriers to Universal Health Coverage in India and the Strategies to Address Them: A Key Informant Study

Background

India has adopted several policies toward improving access to healthcare and has been an enthusiastic signatory to several global health policies to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC). However, despite these policy commitments, there has been limited success in realizing these goals. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the urgent need for health system re-design and amplified the calls for such reforms.

Objectives

We seek to understand the views of a diverse group of policy actors in India to address the following research questions: what are the (i) conceptualizations of UHC, (ii) main barriers to realizing UHC, and (iii) policy strategies to address these barriers.

Data and Methods

We collected data through in-depth interviews with 38 policy actors from diverse backgrounds and analyzed using the Framework Method to develop themes both inductively and deductively using the Control Knob Framework of health systems.

Findings

There was congruence in the conceptualization of UHC by policy actors. Quality of care, equity, financial risk protection, and a comprehensive set of services were the most commonly cited features. The lack of a comprehensive systems approach to health policies, inadequate and inefficient health financing mechanisms, and fragmentation between public and private sectors were identified as the main barriers to UHC. Contrasting views about specific strategies, health financing, provider payments, organization of the delivery system, and regulation emerged as the key policy interventions to address these barriers.

Discussion and Conclusion

This is the first systematic examination of a diverse set of policy actors' problem analyses and suggestions to advance UHC goals in India. The study underscores the need to recognize the complex and interlinked nature of health system reforms and initiate a departure from path-dependent vertical interventions to bring about transformative change.

Global, regional and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the most up-to-date burden of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) and analyse their leading causes in different countries/territories.

DESIGN

An analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.

SETTING

The epidemiological data were gathered from GBD Results Tool (1 January, 1990─31 December 2019) covering 21 GBD regions and 204 countries/ territories.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with TBI/SCI.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Absolute numbers and age-standardised rates/estimates of incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of TBI/SCI by location in 2019, with their percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. The leading causes (eg, falls) of TBI/SCI in 204 countries/territories.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2019, TBI had 27.16 million new cases, 48.99 million prevalent cases and 7.08 million YLDs. SCI had 0.91 million new cases, 20.64 million prevalent cases and 6.20 million YLDs. Global age-standardised incidence rates of TBI decreased significantly by -5.5% (95% uncertainty interval -8.9% to -3.0%) from 1990 to 2019, whereas SCI had no significant change (-6.1% (-17.3% to 1.5%)). Regionally, in 2019, Eastern Europe and High-income North America had the highest burden of TBI and SCI, respectively. Nationally, in 2019, Slovenia and Afghanistan had the highest age-standardised incidence rates of TBI and SCI, respectively. For TBI, falls were the leading cause in 74% (150/204) of countries/territories, followed by pedestrian road injuries (14%, 29/204), motor vehicle road injuries (5%, 11/204), and conflict and terrorism (2%, 4/204). For SCI, falls were the leading cause in 97% (198/204) of countries/territories, followed by conflict and terrorism (3%, 6/204).

CONCLUSIONS

Global age-standardised incidence rates of TBI have decreased significantly since 1990, whereas SCI had no significant change. The leading causes of TBI/SCI globally were falls, but variations did exist between countries/territories. Policy-makers should continue to prioritise interventions to reduce falls, but priorities may vary between countries/territories.

Global and regional quality of care index (QCI) by gender and age in oesophageal cancer: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to examine the quality of care by age and gender in oesophageal cancer using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.

METHODS

Patients aged 20 and over with oesophageal cancer were included in this longitudinal study using GBD 1990-2019 data. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to classify the regions. We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to calculate the Quality of Care Index (QCI). The QCI was rescaled into a 0-100 single index, demonstrating that the higher the score, the better the QC.

RESULTS

The age-standardized QCI for oesophageal cancer dramatically increased from 23.5 in 1990 to 41.1 in 2019 for both sexes, globally. The high SDI regions showed higher QCI than the rest of the regions (45.1 in 1990 and 65.7 in 2019) whereas the low SDI regions had the lowest QCI, which showed a 4.5% decrease through the years (from 13.3 in 1990 to 12.7 in 2019). Globally, in 2019, the QCI showed the highest scores for patients aged 80-84, reported 48.2, and the lowest score for patients aged 25-29 reported 31.5, for both sexes. Globally, in 2019, age-standardized Gender Disparity Ratio (GDR) was 1.2, showing higher QCI in females than males.

CONCLUSION

There were fundamental differences in the QCI both globally and regionally between different age groups as well as between males and females. To achieve the goal of providing high-quality services equally to people in need in all over the world, health systems need to invest in effective diagnostic services, treatments, facilities, and equipment and to plan for screening and surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Understanding the convergence of social enterprise, digital health, and citizen engagement for co-producing integrated Person-Centred health services: A critical review and theoretical framework

INTRODUCTION

To achieve Universal Health Coverage and the United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda for 2030, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended the use of social enterprise, digital technology, and citizen engagement in the delivery of Integrated People-Centred Health Services (IPCHS) as part of its strategic vision for 21st century primary care.

METHODS

We conducted a hermeneutic review of frameworks, models and theories on social enterprise, digital health, citizen engagement and IPCHS. This involved multiple iterative cycles of (i) searching and acquisition, followed by (ii) critical analysis and interpretation of literature to assemble arguments and evidence for conceptual relationships until information saturation was reached. This process identified a set of constructs which we synthesised into a testable framework.

RESULTS

Several interdisciplinary frameworks, models and theories explain how social enterprises could use digital technology, and citizen engagement to enable the technical and social integration required to facilitate people-centred primary care. Innovative approaches can be used to maintain financial sustainability while delivering IPCHS at lower cost to vulnerable and marginalised populations in both developed and developing countries.

CONCLUSION

This framework provides a theoretical grounding to guide empirical inquiry into how social enterprises use digital technology to engage citizens in co-producing IPCHS.

From healthcare system to individuals through stroke rehabilitation pathways.Outcomes, information, and satisfaction along 12 months prospective cohort in Portugal

BACKGROUND

The nature and quality of stroke survivor rehabilitation varies throughout Europe, including in Portugal, having not been widely monitored or benchmarked.

OBJECTIVES

This study analyses the stroke care pathway from three perspectives: healthcare system, process, and patient.

METHODS

The study uses data from a one-year single-center prospective cohort of first stroke patients, assessed at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months. Care pathways and settings were described in terms of organizational model, funding, patient involvement, frequency and intensity and multidisciplinary team. Patient-level information and satisfaction were evaluated using a 10-point numeric rating scale. Kruskal - Wallis and post-hoc tests were used to compare EQ-5D-3 L, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Barthel Index, Mini-Mental State Examination scores between pathways and settings.

RESULTS

A total of 391 acute stroke patients, with a mean disability of 3.7 (mRS) and severity of 11.7 (NIHSS) participated. Six pathways and eight settings were described. A lack of compliance between guidelines and care was identified. There were significant differences in the four outcomes between the six pathways (p-values 0.007 to 0.020) suggesting inefficiency and inequalities, with an inadequate level of information and patient satisfaction. After post-hoc analysis, pathways 1 and 2 showed highest outcomes (p-values 0.001 to 0.002). Within settings, short-term units showed high scores, followed by rehabilitation center, outpatient hospital, and community clinic (p-values 0.001 to 0.040).

CONCLUSION

A multilevel characterization of the post-stroke rehabilitation pathway showed a more complete perspective on stroke management which may contribute to future rehabilitation and stroke policies.

Burden and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of disease study 2019

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced a surge of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over the past two decades. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), in this study we have estimated the burden and attributable risk factors of COPD across SSA countries between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

COPD burden and its attributable risk factors were estimated using data from the 2019 GBD. Percentage change was estimated to show the trend of COPD estimates from 1990 to 2019. COPD estimates attributable by risk factors were also reported to ascertain the risk factor that brings the greatest burden by sex and locations (at country and regions level).

Findings

In 2019, all-age prevalent cases of COPD in SSA were estimated to be 10.3 million (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 9.7 million to 10.9 million) showing an increase of 117% compared with the number of all-age COPD cases in 1990. From 1990 to 2019, SSA underwent an increased percentage change in all-age YLDs due to COPD ranging from 41% in Lesotho to 203% in Equatorial Guinea. The largest premature mortality due to COPD was reported from Central SSA accounting for 729 subjects (95% UI, 509-1078). The highest rate of DALYs attributable to COPD was observed in Lesotho. Household air pollution from solid fuel was the primary contributor of the age standardized YLDs, death rate, and DALYs rate per 100,000 population.

Interpretation

The prevalence of COPD in SSA has had a steady increase over the past three decades and has progressively become a major public health burden across the region. Household air pollution from solid fuel is the primary contributor to COPD related burden, and its percentage contribution showed a similar trend to the reduction of COPD attributed age-standardized DALY rate. The methodological limitations of surveys and datapoints included in the GBD need to be considered when interpreting these associations.

Funding

There are no specific fundings received for this study. The Global Burden of Disease study was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Geographic disparities in trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 and a projection to 2030 across income-classified countries and territories

Background

The rising incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has generated growing concern globally; yet there are no studies examining whether this incidence was followed by a rise in related mortality. We aimed to comprehensively quantify current trends and future projections of TC incidence and mortality, and to explore the association between the TC burden and socioeconomic inequality in different income strata.

Methods

We obtained incidence and mortality data on TC and population from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2022. We applied an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) and age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019, and also constructed a Bayesian APC model to predict the TC burden through 2030.

Results

Over a third of global TC cases belonged to the high-income group. From 1990 to 2019, net drifts of TC incidence were >0 in all income groups, while a modest reduction (net drift <0) in mortality was observed in most income groups, except for the lower-middle-income group. Unfavourable age, period, and cohort effects were most notable in Vietnam, China, and Korea. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) is predicted to increase whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) is expected to decrease globally between 2020 and 2030, with geographic heterogeneity being detected across income groups. We observed a positive correlation between ASIR and universal health coverage index and health worker density, but a negative one between ASMR and the two indicators, primarily in upper-middle-income and high-income countries.

Conclusions

Opposite patterns in incidence and mortality of TC raise concerns about overdiagnosis, particularly in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Discrepancies in the distribution of health service accessibility, including diagnostic techniques and therapeutic care, should be addressed by narrowing health inequalities in the TC burden across countries.

A Global, Regional, and National Survey on Burden and Quality of Care Index of Multiple Sclerosis: Global Burden of Disease Systematic Analysis 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common neurologic autoimmune disorder. We have used a newly introduced measure, Quality of Care Index (QCI), which is associated with the efficacy of care given to patients suffering from MS.

OBJECTIVES

The aims of the study were to report and compare the quality of care given to MS patients in different regions and country.

METHODS

Primary measures were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) from 1990 to 2019. Secondary measures (mortality-to-incidence ratio, DALY-to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and YLL-to-YLD ratio) were combined using principal component analysis, to form an essential component (QCI) (0-100 index with higher values representing better condition).

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 59,345 (95% UI: 51,818-66,943) new MS incident cases globally. Global QCI of 88.4 was calculated for 2019. At national level, Qatar had the highest quality of care (100) followed by Kuwait (98.5) and Greenland (98.1). The lowest QCI was observed in Kiribati (13.5), Nauru (31.5), and Seychelles (36.3), respectively. Most countries have reached gender equity during the 30 years. Also, QCI was lowest in ages from 55 to 80 in global scale.

CONCLUSION

MS QCI is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Countries could benefit from adopting the introduced QCI to evaluate the quality of care given to MS patients at national and global level.

The inter-prefectural regional disparity of healthcare resources and representative surgical procedures in orthopaedics and general surgery: a nationwide study in Japan during 2015-2019

BACKGROUND

Few reports have examined the localized regional disparity in representative surgical procedures in orthopaedics and general surgery globally. This study aimed to clarify the inter-prefectural regional disparity and relationships between healthcare resources and representative surgical procedures using a nationwide database in Japan.

METHODS

The number of medical specialists in orthopaedics, general surgery, and anaesthesiology, as well as the number of hospitals, and the incidence of representative surgical procedures in orthopaedics and general surgery were evaluated annually per 100,000 inhabitants/people by prefecture in Japan during 2015-2019. Medium-sized regional disparities were evaluated using the Gini coefficient. Correlation coefficients were calculated for the defined variables and ageing rate. We also compared the urban and rural regional disparities in all study variables.

RESULTS

The annual average number/incidence and Gini coefficients were 110.6 and 0.11 for femur fracture surgery, 106.3 and 0.09 for cholecystectomy, 14.2 and 0.11 for orthopaedic surgeon specialists, 17.6 and 0.09 for general surgeon specialists, 5.9 and 0.13 for anaesthesiology specialists, and 8.1 and 0.21 for hospitals, respectively. The correlation coefficients by the incidence of femur fracture surgery were 0.74 for orthopaedic surgeon specialists (p < 0.001), 0.63 for hospitals (p < 0.001), and 0.62 for the ageing rate (p < 0.001); those by the incidence of cholecystectomy were 0.60 for general surgeon specialists (p < 0.001) and 0.59 for hospitals (p < 0.001). The number/incidence of orthopaedic surgeon specialists, hospitals, femur fracture surgery, and cholecystectomy, as well as the ageing rate, were significantly higher in rural prefectures than in urban prefectures (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Inter-prefectural regional disparity was small, although certain items were unevenly distributed in the rural prefectures, which is contrary to our expectations. Higher prevalence was recognised in rural prefectures due to the higher ageing rate; however, supply and demand are balanced. This study provides basic data for healthcare policy development in a medium-sized community.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

The impact of healthcare industry convergence on the performance of the public health system: a geospatial modeling study of provincial panel data from China

Objective

This paper examines the impact of healthcare industry convergence on the performance of the public health system in the eastern, central, and western regions of China.

Methods

Public health performance was measured by a composite index of three standards: average life expectancy at birth, perinatal mortality, and maternal mortality. The healthcare industry convergence was measured using a coupling coordination degree method. The spatial lag, spatial error, and spatial Durbin models were used to estimate the effect of healthcare industry convergence on public health system performance and this effect's spatial dependence and heterogeneity across eastern, central, and western China using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2019.

Results

The convergence of the healthcare industry significantly promotes regional public health [β =0.576, 95% CI: (0.331,0.821)]. However, the convergence does not have a spatial spillover effect on the public health system at the national level. Additionally, analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that the direct effects of healthcare industry convergence on public health are positive and statistically significant for Eastern China, statistically insignificant for Central China, and positive and statistically significant for Western China. The indirect effects are negative, statistically significant, positive, statistically significant, and statistically insignificant for these three regions, respectively.

Conclusion

Policy efforts should strengthen the convergence between the healthcare industry and relevant industries. It can produce more current healthcare services to improve public health and reduce regional health inequality.

Global Burden of Prostate Cancer and Association with Socioeconomic Status, 1990-2019: A Systematic Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study

IMPORTANCE

Both the morbidity and mortality of prostate cancer are increasing worldwide. Updated evaluations of prostate cancer burden and its global, regional and national patterns are essential for formulating effective preventive strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2019 to facilitate preventive measures and control planning.

METHODS

Annual incident cases, deaths, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDRs) of prostate cancer between 1990 and 2019 were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019. Percentage changes in incident cases, deaths and DALYs and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASIRs, ASMRs and ASDRs were calculated to quantify temporal trends. Correlations between EAPCs and socio-demographic index (SDI) and universal health coverage index (UHCI) were evaluated by Pearson correlation analyses.

RESULTS

Globally, the number of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs of prostate cancer increased by 116.11%, 108.94%, and 98.25% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The ASIR increased by an average of 0.26% (95% CI: 0.14%, 0.37%) per year between 1990 and 2019, while the ASMR and ASDR decreased by an average of - 0.75% (95% CI: - 0.84%, - 0.67%) and - 0.71% (95% CI: - 0.78%, - 0.63%) per year in this period, respectively. Epidemic trends in the burdens of prostate cancer were not uniform throughout different groups of SDI or geography. The burdens of prostate cancer varied across SDI regions, with an increasing trend in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in low and low-middle SDI regions between 1990 and 2019. A significant positive correlation between the EAPC in ASIR and UHCI was observed in countries with a UHCI < 70 (ρ = 0.37, p < 0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Prostate cancer remains a major global health burden due to the increase in incident cases, deaths, and DALYs in the past three decades. These increases are likely to continue as the population ages, which indicates a potential talent gap in the trained healthcare workforce. The diversity of prostate cancer development models implies the importance of specific local strategies tailored for each country's risk factor profile. Prevention, early detection and more effective treatment strategies for prostate cancer are essential.

The global fatty liver disease Sustainable Development Goal country score for 195 countries and territories

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fatty liver disease is highly prevalent, resulting in overarching wellbeing and economic costs. Addressing it requires comprehensive and coordinated multisectoral action. We developed a fatty liver disease Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) country score to provide insights into country-level preparedness to address fatty liver disease through a whole-of-society lens.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We developed 2 fatty liver disease-SDG score sets. The first included 6 indicators (child wasting, child overweight, noncommunicable disease mortality, a universal health coverage service coverage index, health worker density, and education attainment), covering 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. The second included the aforementioned indicators plus an urban green space indicator, covering 60 countries and territories for which 2017 data were available. To develop the fatty liver disease-SDG score, indicators were categorized as "positive" or "negative" and scaled from 0 to 100. Higher scores indicate better preparedness levels. Fatty liver disease-SDG scores varied between countries and territories (n = 195), from 14.6 (95% uncertainty interval: 8.9 to 19.4) in Niger to 93.5 (91.6 to 95.3) in Japan; 18 countries and territories scored > 85. Regionally, the high-income super-region had the highest score at 88.8 (87.3 to 90.1) in 2017, whereas south Asia had the lowest score at 44.1 (42.4 to 45.8). Between 1990 and 2017, the fatty liver disease-SDG score increased in all super-regions, with the greatest increase in south Asia, but decreased in 8 countries and territories.

CONCLUSIONS

The fatty liver disease-SDG score provides a strategic advocacy tool at the national and global levels for the liver health field and noncommunicable disease advocates, highlighting the multisectoral collaborations needed to address fatty liver disease, and noncommunicable diseases overall.

Lessons from the development process of the Afghanistan integrated package of essential health services

In 2017, in the middle of the armed conflict with the Taliban, the Ministry of Public Health decided that the Afghan health system needed a well-defined priority package of health services taking into account the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries and benefiting from the latest evidence published by DCP3. This leads to a 2-year process involving data analysis, modelling and national consultations, which produce this Integrated Package of Essential health Services (IPEHS). The IPEHS was finalised just before the takeover by the Taliban and could not be implemented. The Afghanistan experience has highlighted the need to address not only the content of a more comprehensive benefit package, but also its implementation and financing. The IPEHS could be used as a basis to help professionals and the new authorities to define their priorities.

Global cardiovascular diseases burden attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019

Sodium intake shows a positive correlation with blood pressure, resulting in an increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Salt reduction is a key step toward the WHO's goal of 25% reduction in mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 2025. This study aims to assess the current condition and temporal changes of the global CVD burden due to high sodium intake (HSI). We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The numbers and age-standardized rates of mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), stratified by location, sex, and socio-demographic Index (SDI), were used to assess the high sodium intake attributable CVD burden from 1990 to 2019. The relationship between the DALYs rates and related factors was evaluated by stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. Globally, in 2019, the deaths and DALYs of HSI-related CVD were 1.72 million and 40.54 million, respectively, increasing by 41.08% and 33.06% from 1990. Meanwhile, the corresponding mortality and DALYs rates dropped by 35.1% and 35.2%, respectively. The high-middle and middle SDI quintiles bore almost two-thirds of CVD burden caused by HSI. And the leading cause of HSI attributable CVD burden was ischemic heart disease. Universal health coverage (UHC) was associated with the DALYs rates after adjustment. From 1990 to 2019, the global CVD burden attributable to HSI has declined with spatiotemporal and sexual heterogeneity. However, it remains a major public health challenge because of the increasing absolute numbers. Improving UHC serves as an effective strategy to reduce the HSI-related CVD burden.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide, little comprehensive or recent evidence of the burden of NCDs among adolescents and young adults in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions is available. We aimed to report population shifts in people aged 10-24 years and their NCD burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We retrieved data from GBD 2019 for people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions from 1990 to 2019. We presented population shifts and analysed deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for NCDs. We also quantified the associations of deaths and DALYs with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Universal Health Coverage (UHC) effective coverage index using Spearman correlation and linear regression analyses. Percentages are reported to 1 decimal place and rates are reported to 2 decimal places.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 559·2 million young people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia region and 335·0 million in the Western Pacific region; India and China remained the countries with greatest number of this age group. In 1990-2019, India had an absolute increase of 139·4 million adolescents, while China had a decrease of 134·3 million. In 2019, NCDs accounted for 27·3% (95% uncertainty interval 25·1 to 29·2) and 34·6% (33·5 to 36·1) of total deaths, and 49·8% (45·3 to 54·4) and 65·1% (60·6 to 69·3) of total DALYs in the South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions, respectively. Neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and mental disorders were the leading causes of NCD burden in 42 countries. Kiribati had the highest rates of deaths (62·82 [50·77 to 76·11] per 100 000 population), YLLs (4364·73 [3545·04 to 5275·63] per 100 000 population), and DALYs (9368·73 [7713·65 to 11340·99] per 100 000 population) for NCDs, whereas Australia (6976·51 [5044·46 to 9190·01] per 100 000 population) and New Zealand (6716·81 [4827·25 to 8827·69] per 100 000 population) had the largest rates of YLDs due to NCDs. From 1990 to 2019 across both regions, the rate of death due to NCDs declined by over a third (-32·8% [-41·1 to -22·9] in the South-East Asia region and -40·0% [-48·6 to -30·4] in the Western Pacific region), and DALYs decreased by about 12% (-12·0% [-16·8 to -7·7] in the South-East Asia region and -12·8% [-17·7 to -8·7] in the Western Pacific region), whereas the proportion of NCD burden relative to all-cause burden increased (45·7% [32·9 to 61·7] for deaths and 41·2% [35·2 to 48·8] for DALYs in the South-East Asia region; 11·8% [7·1 to 21·5] for deaths and 18·2% [14·6 to 22·0] for DALYs in the Western Pacific region). The rate of deaths and DALYs due to NCDs decreased monotonically alongside increases in SDI (rs=-0·57 [95% CI -0·81 to -0·32] for deaths and rs=-0·30 [-0·61 to 0·03] for DALYs). The rate of deaths (rs=-0·89 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·80]) and DALYs (rs=-0·67 [-0·93 to -0·41]) due to NCDs also decreased alongside increases in the UHC effective coverage index.

INTERPRETATION

Specific preventive and health service measures are needed for adolescents and young adults in countries with different levels of socioeconomic development to reduce the burden from NCDs.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Urban Governance, Multisectoral Action, and Civic Engagement for Population Health, Wellbeing, and Equity in Urban Settings: A Systematic Review

Objectives: To identify the validated and reliable indicators and tools to assess good governance for population health, wellbeing, and equity in urban settings, and assess processes of multisectoral action and civic engagement as reported by peer-reviewed articles. Methods: We conducted a systematic review searching six databases for observational studies reporting strategies of either urban health, multisectoral action or civic engagement for wellbeing, health, or equity. Results: Out of 8,154 studies initially identified we included 17. From the included studies, 14 presented information about high-income countries. The general population was the main target in most studies. Multisectoral action was the most frequently reported strategy (14 studies). Three studies used Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool (Urban HEART). Health indicators were the most frequently represented (6 studies). Barriers and facilitators for the implementation of participatory health governance strategies were reported in 12 studies. Conclusion: Data on the implementation of participatory health governance strategies has been mainly reported in high-income countries. Updated and reliable data, measured repeatedly, is needed to closely monitor these processes and further develop indicators to assess their impact on population health, wellbeing, and equity.

Setbacks in the quest for universal health coverage in Mexico: polarised politics, policy upheaval, and pandemic disruption

2023 marks the 20-year anniversary of the creation of Mexico's System of Social Protection for Health and the Seguro Popular, a model for the global quest to achieve universal health coverage through health system reform. We analyse the success and challenges after 2012, the consequences of reform ageing, and the unique coincidence of systemic reorganisation during the COVID-19 pandemic to identify strategies for health system disaster preparedness. We document that population health and financial protection improved as the Seguro Popular aged, despite erosion of the budget and absent needed reforms. The Seguro Popular closed in January, 2020, and Mexico embarked on a complex, extensive health system reorganisation. We posit that dismantling the Seguro Popular while trying to establish a new programme in 2020-21 made the Mexican health system more vulnerable in the worst pandemic period and shows the precariousness of evidence-based policy making to political polarisation and populism. Reforms should be designed to be flexible yet insulated from political volatility and constructed and managed to be structurally permeable and adaptable to new evidence to face changing health needs. Simultaneously, health systems should be grounded to withstand systemic shocks of politics and natural disasters.

Antiseizure Medications in Alzheimer's Disease from Preclinical to Clinical Evidence

Alzheimer's disease (AD) and epilepsy are common neurological disorders in the elderly. A bi-directional link between these neurological diseases has been reported, with patients with either condition carrying almost a two-fold risk of contracting the other compared to healthy subjects. AD/epilepsy adversely affects patients' quality of life and represents a severe public health problem. Thus, identifying the relationship between epilepsy and AD represents an ongoing challenge and continuing need. Seizures in AD patients are often unrecognized because they are often nonconvulsive and sometimes mimic some behavioral symptoms of AD. Regarding this, it has been hypothesized that epileptogenesis and neurodegeneration share common underlying mechanisms. Targeted treatment to decrease epileptiform activity could represent a valuable strategy for delaying the neurodegenerative process and related cognitive impairment. Several preclinical studies have shown that some antiseizure medications (ASMs) targeting abnormal network hyperexcitability may change the natural progression of AD. However, to date, no guidelines are available for managing seizures in AD patients because of the paucity of randomized clinical trials sufficient for answering the correlated questions. Future AD clinical studies are mandatory to update clinicians about the symptomatic treatment of seizures in AD patients and recognize whether ASM therapy could change the natural progression of the disease, thereby rescuing cognitive performance.

Critical Care Units in Malawi: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

The global burden of critical illness falls disproportionately outside high-income countries. Despite younger patient populations with similar or lower disease severity, critical illness outcomes are poor outside high-income countries. A lack of data limits attempts to understand and address the drivers of critical care outcomes outside high-income countries.

Objectives

We aim to characterize the organization, available resources, and service capacity of public sector critical care units in Malawi and identify barriers to improving care.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of the Malawi Emergency and Critical Care Survey, a cross-sectional study performed from January to February 2020 at all four central hospitals and a simple random sample of nine out of 24 public sector district hospitals in Malawi, a predominantly rural, low-income country of 19.6 million in southern Africa. Data from critical care units were used to characterize resources, processes, and barriers to care.

Findings

There were four HDUs and four ICUs across the 13 hospitals in the Malawi Emergency and Critical Care Survey sample. The median critical care beds per 1,000,000 catchment was 1.4 (IQR: 0.9 to 6.7). Absent equipment was the most common barrier in HDUs (46% [95% CI: 32% to 60%]). Stockouts was the most common barriers in ICUs (48% [CI: 38% to 58%]). ICUs had a median 3.0 (range: 2 to 8) functional ventilators per unit and reported an ability to perform several quality mechanical ventilation interventions.

Conclusions

Although significant gaps exist, Malawian critical care units report the ability to perform several complex clinical processes. Our results highlight regional inequalities in access to care and support the use of process-oriented questions to assess critical care capacity. Future efforts should focus on basic critical care capacity outside of urban areas and quantify the impact of context-specific variables on critical care mortality.

Burden of breast cancer and attributable risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in women globally. The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region is coping hard with the burden of BC. We aimed to present the latest epidemiology of BC and its risk factors in this region.

Methods

We retrieved the data on BC burden and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe BC status in the 21 countries of the NAME region from 1990 to 2019. We explored BC incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to seven risk factors of female BC, namely, alcohol use, diet high in red meat, low physical activity, smoking, secondhand smoke, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose. Decomposition analysis on BC incidence trend was done to find out the contributing factors to this cancer's growth.

Results

In 2019, there were 835,576 (95% uncertainty interval: 741,968 to 944,851) female and 10,938 (9,030 to 13,256) male prevalent cases of BC in the NAME region. This number leads to 35,405 (30,676 to 40,571) deaths among female patients and 809 (654 to 1,002) deaths in male patients this year. BC was responsible for 1,222,835 (1,053,073 to 1,411,009) DALYs among female patients in 2019, with a greater proportion (94.9%) of burden in years of life lost (YLLs). The major contributor to female BC incidence increase in the past three decades was found to be increase in age-specific incidence rates of BC (227.5%), compared to population growth (73.8%) and aging (81.8%). The behavioral risk factors were responsible for majority of attributable female BC burden (DALYs: 106,026 [66,614 to 144,247]). High fasting plasma glucose was found to be the risk factor with the largest effect (DALYs: 84,912 [17,377 to 192,838]) on female BC burden.

Conclusion

The increasing incidence and burden of BC in the NAME region is remarkable, especially when considering limited resources in the developing countries of this region. Proper policies like expanding screening programs and careful resource management are needed to effectively manage BC burden.

Reconsidering economic interventions to reduce oral health inequalities

Despite the general recognition of economic factors as fundamental upstream social determinants of health inequalities, interventions to improve health and reduce inequalities tend to focus on proximal health determinants. However, recent socioeconomic crises have increased the focus on economic factors. Health-related approaches to address economic factors can be divided into two categories: (1) indirect approaches, such as financial support for obtaining dental care and fiscal policies targeting unhealthy commodities and (2) direct approaches, such as cash transfers or provision of a universal basic income. For indirect approaches, policies reducing out-of-pocket payments for dental care appear to improve access to services and reduce oral health inequalities. Price policies targeting tobacco and sugar through taxation are associated with declines in periodontal disease and caries, and sugar taxation appears to reduce oral health inequalities. As regards direct approaches, studies on cash transfers to low-income individuals have found no positive impact on dental visits, while results in relation to caries prevention were inconclusive. No dental studies examined the effect of a population approach to income security, such as basic income. Research on economic interventions for oral health inequalities is scarce, and studies using causal inference methods and natural experiments are urgently needed.

Population health outcomes in South Korea 1990-2019, and projections up to 2040: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

South Korea has one of the longest operating universal health coverage (UHC) systems. A comprehensive analysis of long-term trajectories of morbidity and mortality in the South Korean population after the inception of UHC is needed to inform health-care policy and practice.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to present estimates of cause-specific mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in South Korea from 1990 to 2019. We also examined forecasted estimates of YLLs up to 2040 to investigate likely future changes in disease burden. Finally, we evaluated GBD estimates from seven comparator countries to place disease burden in South Korea within a broader context.

FINDINGS

Age-standardised DALYs related to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) decreased by 43·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-47·9) and mortality by 58·8% (55·9-60·5) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the ratio of male to female age-standardised rates of YLLs in South Korea was higher than the global average for 75·9% (22 of 29 diseases) of leading causes, indicating a disproportional disease burden on males in South Korea. Among risk factors, tobacco use accounted for the highest number of 2019 deaths (44 470 [95% UI 37 432-53 989]) in males and high systolic blood pressure for the highest number (21 014 [15 553-26 723]) in females. Among the top ten leading causes of YLLs forecast in South Korea in 2040, nine were NCDs, for both males and females.

INTERPRETATION

Our report shows a positive landscape of population health outcomes in South Korea following the establishment of UHC. However, due in part to the effects of population ageing driving up medical expenditures for NCDs, financial pressures and sustainability challenges associated with UHC are pressing concerns. Policy makers should work to tackle population ageing and allocate resources efficiently by prioritising interventions that address the leading causes of death and disability identified in this study.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden and trend of diseases and their risk factors in Australia, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive understanding of temporal trends in the disease burden in Australia is lacking, and these trends are required to inform health service planning and improve population health. We explored the burden and trends of diseases and their risk factors in Australia from 1990 to 2019 through a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis for GBD 2019, we estimated all-cause mortality using the standardised GBD methodology. Data sources included primarily vital registration systems with additional data from sample registrations, censuses, surveys, surveillance, registries, and verbal autopsies. A composite measure of health loss caused by fatal and non-fatal disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs). Comparisons between Australia and 14 other high-income countries were made.

FINDINGS

Life expectancy at birth in Australia improved from 77·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·9-77·1) in 1990 to 82·9 years (82·7-83·1) in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 637·7 deaths (95% UI 634·1-641·3) to 389·2 deaths (381·4-397·6) per 100 000 population. In 2019, non-communicable diseases remained the major cause of mortality in Australia, accounting for 90·9% (95% UI 90·4-91·9) of total deaths, followed by injuries (5·7%, 5·3-6·1) and communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (3·3%, 2·9-3·7). Ischaemic heart disease, self-harm, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stroke, and colorectal cancer were the leading causes of YLLs. The leading causes of YLDs were low back pain, depressive disorders, other musculoskeletal diseases, falls, and anxiety disorders. The leading risk factors for DALYs were high BMI, smoking, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and drug use. Between 1990 and 2019, all-cause DALYs decreased by 24·6% (95% UI 21·5-28·1). Relative to similar countries, Australia's ranking improved for age-standardised death rates and life expectancy at birth but not for YLDs and YLLs between 1990 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

An important challenge for Australia is to address the health needs of people with non-communicable diseases. The health systems must be prepared to address the increasing demands of non-communicable diseases and ageing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence and disease burden of silicosis: 30 years' overview and forecasted trends

BACKGROUND

Globally, silicosis accounts for 90% of all pneumoconiosis cases and is a serious public health issue. It is characterized by progressive inflammation and irreversible pulmonary fibrosis. A comprehensive analysis at temporal, spatial and population levels with the most updated data from GBD 2019 is provided in this study to estimate the disease burden of silicosis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2029.

METHODS

We delineated silicosis data on incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as age-standardized rates (ASRs) across 30 years from GBD 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to detect temporal changes and estimate annual percentage change (APC) of each trend segment. Measures were stratified by time, location, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model was applied to elaborate ASR trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections to the next 10 years.

RESULTS

Globally, silicosis incident, prevalent cases, and DALYs increased by 64.6%, 91.4%, and 20.8%, respectively. However, all the corresponding ASRs showed overall downward trends with an estimated average APC (AAPC) of -0.5(-0.7 to -0.3), -0.2(-0.5 to 0.0), and - 2.0(-2.2 to -1.8), respectively. Middle and high-middle SDI regions carried the heaviest disease burden. The highest disease burden of silicosis was mainly transferred to the older from 1990 to 2019. The trend of ASRs demonstrated a rapid decline between 2005 and 2019, followed by a continuous decline until 2029.

CONCLUSION

Though disease burden of silicosis has been on a decline in general from 1990 to 2019, which shows a promising prospect but cannot be ignored. We should pay more attention to implementing preventive tactics and improving the life quality of present sufferers.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

[Recommendations for the development of resilient health systems in the AmericasRecomendações para o desenvolvimento de sistemas de saúde resilientes nas Américas]

This article offers opinion and analysis outlining strategic lines of action to build resilient health systems while promoting recovery in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, with a view to maintaining and protecting public health gains. It contextualizes the challenges and opportunities in the Region of the Americas and offers recommendations for implementation of the strategic lines.It is urgent to promote the development of resilient health systems through the implementation of four lines of action defined in the strategy adopted by the Member States of the Pan American Health Organization in September 2021. The transformation of health systems must be based on the adoption of an integrated model of primary health care, a priority focus on the essential public health functions, strengthening of integrated health service networks, and increased public funding, especially for the first level of care. Implementation of these lines of action is focused not only on consolidating immediate crisis response; it is also framed within efforts toward the recovery and sustainable development of health systems, reducing their structural vulnerabilities to better prepare the response to future crises.

How and why pharmaceutical reforms contribute to universal health coverage through improving equitable access to medicines: a case of Ghana

Background

Examining how and why a country prioritizes and implements pharmaceutical reforms tends to show complex processes and myriad efforts made toward improving access to medicines. This study examines factors that enabled the prioritization and implementation of selected pharmaceutical reform items and how these factors contributed to improving equitable access to medicines and universal health coverage in Ghana.

Methods

An analytical framework was developed to identify variables to explore in answering the study questions and frame the analysis and presentation of findings. Documents analyzed included the National Medicines Policies, Health Sector Program of Work, and other health policies. Quantitative data were sourced from databases maintained by World Health Organization and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Results

The three main factors, evidence, financial and technical support, and alignment to national and global policies, influenced the prioritization and implementation of access to medicines reforms. The reforms targeted rational selection and use of medicines, medicine pricing, sustainable medicine financing, and regulatory and supply chain systems. Although there were limited quantitative data to quantify access to medicine policies" impact on universal health coverage, it can be reasonably assumed that, in Ghana, access to medicine policies has contributed to financial protection and improved access to quality health services.

Conclusion

Access to medicine policies targeted at promoting rational medicine selection and use, regulating medicine pricing and improving sustainable financing for medicines as well as the regulatory and supply chain systems arguably contributed to the attainment of UHC and must be sustained. Therefore, data collection and reporting indicators for access to medicines must be prioritized.

Prognostic value of coronary CTA-based classifications for predicting major events without obstructive coronary artery disease

We aim to explore the classifications based on coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) for predicting the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with suspected non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and compare with traditional non-obstructive CAD (NOCAD) classification, Duke prognostic NOCAD index, Non-obstructive coronary artery disease reporting and data system (NOCAD-RADS). 4378 consecutive non-obstructive CAD patients were assessed by coronary CTA for traditional NOCAD classification, Duke prognostic NOCAD index, NOCAD-RADS and a new classification (stenosis proximal involvement, SPI) from two medical centrals. We defined proximal involvement as any plaque was present in the main or proximal segments of coronary artery (left main, left anterior descending artery, left circumflex artery, or right coronary artery). The main outcome was MACE. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, a total of 310 patients experienced MACE event. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed the cumulative events increased significantly associated with traditional NOCAD, Duke NOCAD index, NOCAD-RADS and SPI classifications (all P < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regressions, the risk for the events increased from HR 1.20 (95% CI 0.78-1.83, P = 0.408) for SPI 1 to 1.35 (95% CI 1.05-1.73, P = 0.019) for SPI 2, using SPI 0 as the reference group. Coronary CTA based SPI classification provided important prognostic information for all cause-mortality risk and MACE prediction in patients with non-obstructive CAD, which was non-inferior than traditional NOCAD, Duke NOCAD Index and NOCAD-RADS classifications. The plaque location information by coronary CTA may provide additional risk prediction in patients with non-obstructive CAD.

Universal health coverage mitigated COVID-19 health-related consequences in Asia Oceania

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a continual challenge since 2020, and it continues to impact people and industries as a disaster caused by a biological hazard. This study examined universal health coverage (UHC) scores in relation to the performance in combating COVID-19 in the Southeast Asian region (SEAR) and the Western Pacific region (WPR), along with the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) index under the international health regulations (IHC). The numbers of infections and deaths per million population from December 2019 to June 2022 were used as primary outcomes to measure countries' performance. Countries with UHC scores of 63 or higher had a significantly lower number of infected patients and deaths. In addition, several inter-capacity correlations within the SPAR capacities, including with C8 (the National Health Emergency Framework), as well as a very strong correlation to C4 (Food Safety), C5 (Laboratory), and C7 (Human Resources). Furthermore, C9 (Health Service Provisions) has a very strong correlation to C1 (Legislation and Financing), C2 (International Health Regulation Coordination and a National IHR Focal Point function), and C4 (Food Safety), suggesting that the capability to manage an emerging infectious disease form blocks of capacities. In conclusion, UHC clearly mitigated the health-related consequences of COVID-19 in South-East Asia Region (SEAR) and Western Pacific Region (WPR). Investigating the correlation between the SPAR capacities and UHC is a promising approach for future research, including the importance of the provision of health services, points of entry, and, most importantly, risk communications as critical factors for managing pandemic. This study constitutes a good opportunity to apply the SPAR index to define which capacities correlate with the outcome of the pandemic in terms of infections and deaths.

The Impact of Sociodemographic, Macroeconomic, and Health Status and Resources on Infant Mortality Rates in Oman: Evidence from 1980 to 2022

BACKGROUND

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is an important reflection of the well-being of infants and the overall health of the population. This study aims to examine the macroeconomic (ME), sociodemographic (SD), and health status and resources (HSR) effects on IMR, as well as how they may interact with each other.

METHODS

A retrospective time-series study using yearly data for Oman from 1980 to 2022. Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was utilized to develop the exploratory model of the determinants of IMR.

RESULTS

The model indicates that HSR determinants directly, but negatively, affect IMR (β = -0.617, p < 0.001). SD directly and positively affects IMR (β = 0.447, p < 0.001). ME only indirectly affects IMR (β = -0.854, p < 0.001). ME determinants also exert some direct influences on both HSR (β = 0.722, p < 0.001) and SD (β = -0.916, p < 0.001) determinants.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has indicated that IMR is a multi-faceted issue. It also highlighted the interplay of numerous variables and their influence on IMR, particularly the role that social status, the health sector, and the wealth of the country and its population play in reducing IMR. These findings indicate that an integrated policy that addresses socioeconomic and health-related factors and the overall ME environment is necessary for the health and well-being of the children and the population overall in Oman.

A prospective non-fatal injuries assessment: A multivariate analysis in medical-legal examinations

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively determine injury recovery time in the medical-legal examinations of non-fatal injuries and their associated factors, carried out by the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences of Colombia to create a multivariate analysis.

METHODS

A prospective medical-legal assessment of non-fatal injuries was carried out on 281 individuals with complete follow-up, in which the observational unit of analysis was the most serious injury. Variables, such as sex, circumstances of the injury, the mechanism that caused the injury, medical certificate of incapacity to work, among others were related to the injury recovery time, measured in days. The Kruskal Wallis (K-W) ANOVA and a multivariate analysis using the ordinal regression model were applied.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, the factors most associated with longer recovery time were the extent of joint damage (CR95%:1.47-5.94,p = 0.0001) and bone damage (CR95%:2.92-7.42,p < 0.001). In terms of circumstances of the injury, traffic accidents (CR95%:1.03-2.96,p < 0.001), medical-legal impairments (CR95%:0.34-2.19,p = 0.007), and complications of the primary injury (CR95%: 1.18-2.57,p < 0.001) had the greatest impact on recovery time. Others factors that significantly impacted injury recovery time are surgical treatments (IC95%: 0.33-3.26,p = 0.0164) and delayed treatment (CR95%:1.41-4.72,p < 0.001). A direct correlation (significant and moderately strong) was found between the recovery time of the injury and the days of incapacity for work (r = 0.802, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This prospective analysis determined which variables were most strongly related to the medical-legal assessment of non-fatal injuries and the recovery time of said injuries. Further studies aimed at improving the strategies to help individuals complete the legal process are required.

Strategies to eliminate cervical cancer in China

Cervical cancer is a widely distributed disease that is preventable and controllable through early intervention. The World Health Organization has identified three key measures, coverage populations and coverage targets to eliminate cervical cancer. The WHO and several countries have conducted model predictions to determine the optimal strategy and timing of cervical cancer elimination. However, specific implementation strategies need to be developed in the context of local conditions. China has a relatively high disease burden of cervical cancer but a low human papillomavirus vaccination rate and cervical cancer screening population coverage. The purpose of this paper is to review interventions and prediction studies for the elimination of cervical cancer and to analyze the problems, challenges and strategies for the elimination of cervical cancer in China.

Analysis of Cancer Research Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Quantitative Perspective on Unmet Needs and Opportunities

PURPOSE

To evaluate the scope and types of cancer research projects in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to identify research gaps and inform future efforts.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study summarized information on cancer research projects in SSA from the International Cancer Research Partnership (ICRP) between 2015 and 2020, alongside 2020 cancer incidence and mortality data from the Global Cancer Observatory. SSA cancer research projects were identified as led by investigators in SSA countries, or by investigators in non-SSA countries with collaborators in SSA, or in database keyword searches. Projects from the Coalition for Implementation Research in Global Oncology (CIRGO) were also summarized.

RESULTS

A total of 1,846 projects were identified from the ICRP database, funded by 34 organizations in seven countries (only one, Cancer Association of South Africa, based in SSA); only 156 (8%) were led by SSA-based investigators. Most projects focused on virally induced cancers (57%). Across all cancer types, projects were most frequently related to cervical cancer (24%), Kaposi sarcoma (15%), breast cancer (10%), or non-Hodgkin lymphoma (10%). Gaps were observed for several cancers with higher incidence/mortality burden in SSA; for example, prostate cancer accounted for only 4% of projects but 8% of cancer-related deaths and 10% of new cases. Approximately 26% were dedicated to etiology. Treatment-related research declined over the study period (14%-7% of all projects), while projects related to prevention (15%-20%) and diagnosis/prognosis (15%-29%) increased. Fifteen CIRGO projects were identified; seven were relevant across multiple cancer types, and 12 focused either wholly or partially on cancer control (representing 50% of the total research effort).

CONCLUSION

This analysis shows notable discrepancies between cancer burden and research projects and identifies opportunities for future strategic investments in cancer care in SSA.

Socioeconomic and geographical inequalities in health care coverage in Mozambique: a repeated cross-sectional study of the 2015 and 2018 national surveys

BACKGROUND

Over the past years, Mozambique has implemented several initiatives to ensure equitable coverage to health care services. While there have been some achievements in health care coverage at the population level, the effects of these initiatives on social inequalities have not been analysed.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to assess changes in socioeconomic and geographical inequalities (education, wealth, region, place of residence) in health care coverage between 2015 and 2018 in Mozambique.

METHODS

The study was based on repeated cross-sectional surveys from nationally representative samples: the Survey of Indicators on Immunisation, Malaria and HIV/AIDS in Mozambique (IMASIDA) 2015 and the 2018 Malaria Indicator survey. Data from women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) were analysed to evaluate health care coverage of three indicators: insecticide-treated net use, fever treatment of children, and use of Fansidar malaria prophylaxis for pregnant women. Absolute risk differences and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated for the 2015 survey period and the 2018 survey period, respectively. An interaction term between the socioeconomic and geographical variables and the period was included to assess inequality changes between 2015 and 2018.

RESULTS

The non-use of insecticide-treated nets dropped, whereas the proportion of women with children who were not treated for fever and the prevalence of women who did not take the full Fansidar dose during pregnancy decreased between 2015 and 2018. Significant reductions in the inequality related to insecticide-treated net use were observed for all socioeconomic variables. Concerning fever treatment, some reductions in socioeconomic inequalities were observed, though not statistically significant. For malaria prophylaxis, the SII was significant for education, wealth, and residence in both periods, but no significant inequality reductions were observed in any of these variables over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed significant reductions of socioeconomic inequalities in insecticide-treated net use, but not in fever treatment of children and Fansidar prophylaxis for pregnant women. Decision-makers should target underserved populations, specifically the non-educated, poor, and rural women, to address inequalities in health care coverage.

Regular Dental Check-Ups Are Associated with Choosing Uninsured Dental Restoration/Prosthesis Treatment in Japan

Since Japan has implemented Universal Health Coverage (UHC), most dental treatments are covered by public health insurance. Therefore, when receiving fixed dental restoration/prosthesis (FDRP) treatment, such as inlays, crowns, and bridges, the patient can choose whether or not it is covered by insurance. This study aimed to evaluate whether those who receive dental check-ups regularly chose uninsured FDRP treatment. Data were collected from 2088 participants, who had undergone FDRP treatment, via a web-based survey and analyzed. Among them, 1233 (59.1%) had received regular dental check-ups (RDC group) and 855 (40.9%) had not (non-RDC group). The multivariate logistic regression model showed that compared to the non-RDC group, those in the RDC group were statistically significantly associated with higher rates of good oral health behaviors (brushing teeth ≥ 3 times daily, odds ratios (OR):1.46; practiced interdental cleaning habitually, OR: 2.22) and received uninsured FDRP treatment more often (OR: 1.59), adjusted for socioeconomic factors. These results suggest that health policy interventions to promote access to RDC among individuals may improve the oral health of people and reduce the financial burden on the public health insurance system.

Prevalence trend and burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019: findings from global burden of disease study

Objective

This study sought to investigate the parasitic diseases of neglected tropical diseases defined by the World Health Organization based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database. Importantly, we analyzed the prevalence and burden of these diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 to provide valuable information to formulate more effective measures for their management and prevention.

Methods

Data on the prevalence and burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global health data exchange (GHDx) database, including the absolute number of prevalence, age-standardized prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rate. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the prevalence and burden changes, sex and age distribution of various parasitic diseases from 1990 to 2019. A time series model [Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)] was used to predict the DALYs of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 2020 to 2030.

Results

In 2019, the number of neglected parasitic diseases in China was 152518062, the age-standardized prevalence was 11614.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8758.5-15244.5), the DALYs were 955722, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 54.9 (95% UI 26.0-101.8). Among these, the age-standardized prevalence of soil-derived helminthiasis was the highest (9370.2/100,000), followed by food-borne trematodiases (1502.3/100,000) and schistosomiasis (707.1/100,000). The highest age-standardized DALY rate was for food-borne trematodiases (36.0/100,000), followed by cysticercosis (7.9/100,000) and soil-derived helminthiasis (5.6/100,000). Higher prevalence and disease burden were observed in men and the upper age group. From 1990 to 2019, the number of neglected parasitic diseases in China decreased by 30.4%, resulting in a decline in DALYs of 27.3%. The age-standardized DALY rates of most diseases were decreased, especially for soil-derived helminthiasis, schistosomiasis and food-borne trematodiases. The ARIMA prediction model showed that the disease burden of echinococcosis and cysticercosis exhibited an increasing trend, highlighting the need for further prevention and control.

Conclusion

Although the prevalence and disease burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China have decreased, many issues remain to be addressed. More efforts should be undertaken to improve the prevention and control strategies for different parasitic diseases. The government should prioritize multisectoral integrated control and surveillance measures to prioritize the prevention and control of diseases with a high burden of disease. In addition, the older adult population and men need to pay more attention.

Prioritising Cochrane reviews to be updated with health equity focus

BACKGROUND

The prioritisation of updating published systematic reviews of interventions is vital to prevent research waste and ensure relevance to stakeholders. The consideration of health equity in reviews is also important to ensure interventions will not exacerbate the existing inequities of the disadvantaged if universally implemented. This study aimed to pilot a priority setting exercise based on systematic reviews of interventions published in the Cochrane Library, to identify and prioritise reviews to be updated with a focus on health equity.

METHODS

We conducted a priority setting exercise with a group of 13 international stakeholders. We identified Cochrane reviews of interventions that showed a reduction in mortality, had at least one Summary of Findings table and that focused on one of 42 conditions with a high global burden of disease from the 2019 WHO Global Burden of Disease report. This included 21 conditions used as indicators of success of the United Nations Universal Health Coverage in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals. Stakeholders prioritised reviews that were relevant to disadvantaged populations, or to characteristics of potential disadvantage within the general population.

RESULTS

After searching for Cochrane reviews of interventions within 42 conditions, we identified 359 reviews that assessed mortality and included at least one Summary of Findings table. These pertained to 29 of the 42 conditions; 13 priority conditions had no reviews with the outcome mortality. Reducing the list to only reviews showing a clinically important reduction in mortality left 33 reviews. Stakeholders ranked these reviews in order of priority to be updated with a focus on health equity.

CONCLUSIONS

This project developed and implemented a methodology to set priorities for updating systematic reviews spanning multiple health topics with a health equity focus. It prioritised reviews that reduce overall mortality, are relevant to disadvantaged populations, and focus on conditions with a high global burden of disease. This approach to the prioritisation of systematic reviews of interventions that reduce mortality provides a template that can be extended to reducing morbidity, and the combination of mortality and morbidity as represented in Disability-Adjusted Life Years and Quality-Adjusted Life Years.

Trends and socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors associated with antimicrobial resistance: a longitudinal analysis in 39 hospitals in Chile 2008-2017

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is among the most critical global health threats of the 21st century. AMR is primarily driven by the use and misuse of antibiotics but can be affected by socioeconomic and environmental factors. Reliable and comparable estimates of AMR over time are essential to making public health decisions, defining research priorities, and evaluating interventions. However, estimates for developing regions are scant. We describe the evolution of AMR for critical priority antibiotic-bacterium pairs in Chile and examine their association with hospital and community-level characteristics using multivariate rate-adjusted regressions.

Methods

Drawing on multiple data sources, we assembled a longitudinal national dataset to analyse AMR levels for critical priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations in 39 private and public hospitals (2008-2017) throughout the country and characterize the population at the municipality level. We first described trends of AMR in Chile. Second, we used multivariate regressions to examine the association of AMR with hospital characteristics and community-level socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Last, we estimated the expected distribution of AMR by region in Chile.

Findings

Our results show that AMR for priority antibiotic-bacterium pairs steadily increased between 2008 and 2017 in Chile, driven primarily by Klebsiella pneumoniae resistant to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems, and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. Higher hospital complexity, a proxy for antibiotic use, and poorer local community infrastructure were significantly associated with greater AMR.

Interpretation

Consistent with research in other countries in the region, our results show a worrisome increase in clinically relevant AMR in Chile and suggest that hospital complexity and living conditions in the community may affect the emergence and spread of AMR. Our results highlight the importance of understanding AMR in hospitals and their interaction with the community and the environment to curtail this ongoing public health crisis.

Funding

This research was supported by the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID), Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico FONDECYT, The Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR), and Centro UC de Políticas Públicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.

Indicators of integrating oral health care within universal health coverage and general health care in low-, middle-, and high-income countries: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently devoted special attention to oral health and oral health care recommending the latter becoming part of universal health coverage (UHC) so as to reduce oral health inequalities across the globe. In this context, as countries consider acting on this recommendation, it is essential to develop a monitoring framework to measure the progress of integrating oral health/health care into UHC. This study aimed to identify existing measures in the literature that could be used to indicate oral health/health care integration within UHC across a range of low-, middle- and high-income countries.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted by searching MEDLINE via Ovid, CINAHL, and Ovid Global Health databases. There were no quality or publication date restrictions in the search strategy. An initial search by an academic librarian was followed by the independent reviewing of all identified articles by two authors for inclusion or exclusion based on the relevance of the work in the articles to the review topic. The included articles were all published in English. Articles concerning which the reviewers disagreed on inclusion or exclusion were reviewed by a third author, and subsequent discussion resulted in agreement on which articles were to be included and excluded. The included articles were reviewed to identify relevant indicators and the results were descriptively mapped using a simple frequency count of the indicators.

RESULTS

The 83 included articles included work from a wide range of 32 countries and were published between 1995 and 2021. The review identified 54 indicators divided into 15 categories. The most frequently reported indicators were in the following categories: dental service utilization, oral health status, cost/service/population coverage, finances, health facility access, and workforce and human resources. This study was limited by the databases searched and the use of English-language publications only.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review identified 54 indicators in a wide range of 15 categories of indicators that have the potential to be used to evaluate the integration of oral health/health care into UHC across a wide range of countries.

Unmet chronic care needs and insufficient nurse staffing to achieve universal health coverage in China: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although China has made impressive progress towards Universal Health Coverage through the health system reform plan since 2009, chronic disease prevention and control implementations are still inadequate to meet the need at large. This study aims to quantify the acute and chronic care needs in China and examine the human resources for health and financial protection for the population to achieve Universal Health Coverage.

METHODS

The data on disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost in China were disaggregated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 by age and sex based on acute care need or chronic care need. An auto-regressive integrated moving average model was deployed to predict the supply gap of physicians, nurses and midwives from 2020 to 2050. Out-of-pocket health expenditure was compared among China, Russia, Germany, the US, and Singapore to examine the current status of financial protection.

RESULTS

In 2019, conditions requiring chronic care accounted for 86.4% of all-cause, all-age disability-adjusted life years in China, while acute-care-need conditions accounted for 11.3%. Approximate 25.57% of disability-adjusted life years in communicable diseases and 94.32% in non-communicable diseases were caused by chronic care need conditions. Chronic care-need conditions accounted for more than 80% of both man and woman's disease burden. The proportion of disability-adjusted life years and years of life lost attributable to chronic care was greater than 90% in people aged 25 and up. The nurse and midwife supply will be in absolute shortage and unable to achieve effective universal health coverage effective coverage of 80% or 90% from 2020 to 2050, while the physician supply will be sufficient to maintain effective universal health coverage of 80% and reach 90% from 2036. The out-of-pocket health expenditure decreased with time but was still relatively higher than that of Germany, the US, and Singapore.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates the chronic care needs outweigh those for acute care in China. Nurse supply and the financial protection for the poor were still inadequate to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Better workforce planning and concerted actions on chronic care prevention and control should be taken to meet the population's chronic care needs.

Global and regional quality of care index for prostate cancer: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer (PCa) is one of the most prevalent cancers worldwide, with a significant burden on societies and healthcare providers. We aimed to develop a metric for PCa quality of care that could demonstrate the disease's status in different countries and regions (e.g., socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles) and assist in improving healthcare policies.

METHODS

Basic burden of disease indicators for various regions and age-groups were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019, which then were used to calculate four secondary indices: mortality to incidence ratio, DALYs to prevalence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, and YLLs to YLDs ratio. These four indices were combined through a principal component analysis (PCA), producing the quality of care index (QCI).

RESULTS

PCa's age-standardized incidence rate increased from 34.1 in 1990 to 38.6 in 2019, while the age-standardized death rate decreased in the same period (18.1 to 15.3). From 1990 to 2019, global QCI increased from 74 to 84. Developed regions (high SDI) had the highest PCa QCIs in 2019 (95.99), while the lowest QCIs belonged to low SDI countries (28.67), mainly from Africa. QCI peaked in age groups 50 to 54, 55 to 59, or 65 to 69, depending on the socio-demographic index.

CONCLUSIONS

Global PCa QCI stands at a relatively high value (84 in 2019). Low SDI countries are affected the most by PCa, mainly due to the lack of effective preventive and treatment methods in those regions. In many developed countries, QCI decreased or stopped rising after recommendations against routine PCa screening in the 2010-2012 period, highlighting the role of screening in reducing PCa burden.