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Vanneste T, Depauw L, De Lombaerde E, Meeussen C, Govaert S, De Pauw K, Sanczuk P, Bollmann K, Brunet J, Calders K, Cousins SAO, Diekmann M, Gasperini C, Graae BJ, Hedwall PO, Iacopetti G, Lenoir J, Lindmo S, Orczewska A, Ponette Q, Plue J, Selvi F, Spicher F, Verbeeck H, Zellweger F, Verheyen K, Vangansbeke P, De Frenne P. Trade-offs in biodiversity and ecosystem services between edges and interiors in European forests. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:880-887. [PMID: 38424266 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02335-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
Forest biodiversity and ecosystem services are hitherto predominantly quantified in forest interiors, well away from edges. However, these edges also represent a substantial proportion of the global forest cover. Here we quantified plant biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators in 225 plots along forest edge-to-interior transects across Europe. We found strong trade-offs: phylogenetic diversity (evolutionary measure of biodiversity), proportion of forest specialists, decomposition and heatwave buffering increased towards the interior, whereas species richness, nectar production potential, stemwood biomass and tree regeneration decreased. These trade-offs were mainly driven by edge-to-interior structural differences. As fragmentation continues, recognizing the role of forest edges is crucial for integrating biodiversity and ecosystem service considerations into sustainable forest management and policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Vanneste
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium.
| | - Leen Depauw
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Emiel De Lombaerde
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Camille Meeussen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Sanne Govaert
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Karen De Pauw
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Sanczuk
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Kurt Bollmann
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Jörg Brunet
- Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lomma, Sweden
| | - Kim Calders
- CAVElab-Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Sara A O Cousins
- Biogeography and Geomatics, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Martin Diekmann
- Vegetation Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology, FB2, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| | - Cristina Gasperini
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Bente J Graae
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Per-Ola Hedwall
- Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lomma, Sweden
| | - Giovanni Iacopetti
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058 « Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés », Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Sigrid Lindmo
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Anna Orczewska
- Institute of Biology, Biotechnology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia, Katowice, Poland
| | - Quentin Ponette
- Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Jan Plue
- Biogeography and Geomatics, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Federico Selvi
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Fabien Spicher
- UMR CNRS 7058 « Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés », Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Hans Verbeeck
- CAVElab-Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Florian Zellweger
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Kris Verheyen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Vangansbeke
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
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52
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Haq MA. Intellligent sustainable agricultural water practice using multi sensor spatiotemporal evolution. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY 2024; 45:2285-2298. [PMID: 34842040 DOI: 10.1080/09593330.2021.2005151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2021] [Accepted: 11/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The amount of water taken from non-renewable resources such as aquifers to fulfill irrigation requirements is rarely monitored, putting sustainable agriculture under threat in the face of changing climate. In the present research, an attempt was made to apply multi-sensor (Landsat suite, GRACE, GRACE-FO) satellite data to monitor spatiotemporal evolution of agriculture for the Al-Qassim region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). For this purpose, time series of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), SAVI (Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index), and MSAVI2 (Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation 2) was utilized to assess vegetation pattern change in the study area. The present investigation used High-resolution Planetscope (PS) nanosatellite data to validate the vegetation results. Mann Kendall trend analysis and linear regression were performed to study the temporal pattern, and the relationship between vegetation, GRACE, and climate variables was performed from 1984 to 2020. Water extraction based on the averaged value of JPL GWS and CSR GWS showed a decreasing trend of -10.24 ± 1.4 mm/year from 2003-2020. The annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend, while the annual temperature showed an increasing trend from 1982-2020. The correlation of vegetation indices with rainfall of one-month lag showed a significantly better relationship of 0.74, 0.74, and 0.75, respectively, for NDVI, SAVI, and MSAVI2. The correlation between temperature and all three vegetation indices is a strong negative correlation: -0.85 for NDVI and -0.9 for SAVI and MSAVI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Anul Haq
- Department of Computer Science, College of Computer Science and Information Sciences, Majmaah University, Al-Majmaah, Saudi Arabia
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53
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Chan WP, Lenoir J, Mai GS, Kuo HC, Chen IC, Shen SF. Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions. Nature 2024; 629:114-120. [PMID: 38538797 PMCID: PMC11062926 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Abstract
Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Ping Chan
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Bachelor Program in Data Science and Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Rowland Institute at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058, Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Guan-Shuo Mai
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Hung-Chi Kuo
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - I-Ching Chen
- Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Sheng-Feng Shen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
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54
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Wang H, Chen J, Qiu M, Shi Z, Zhang S, Dong G, Ma S, Ai T, Ren G, Chen F. Climate change drove the route shift of the ancient Silk Road in two distinct ways. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2024; 69:1153-1160. [PMID: 38433030 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.02.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
Although climate change has convincingly been linked to the evolution of human civilization on different temporal scales, its role in influencing the spatial patterns of ancient civilizations has rarely been investigated. The northward shift of the ancient Silk Road (SR) route from the Tarim Basin (TB) to the Junggar Basin during ∼420-850 CE provides the opportunity to investigate the relationship between climate change and the spatial evolution of human societies. Here, we use a new high-resolution chironomid-based temperature reconstruction from arid China, combined with hydroclimatic and historical datasets, to assess the possible effects of climate fluctuations on the shift of the ancient SR route. We found that a cooling/drying climate in the TB triggered the SR route shift during ∼420-600 CE. However, a warming/wetting climate during ∼600-850 CE did not inhibit this shift, but instead promoted it, because of the favorable climate-induced geopolitical conflicts between the Tubo Kingdom and the Tang Dynasty in the TB. Our findings reveal two distinct ways in which climate change drove the spatial evolution of human civilization, and they demonstrate the flexibility of societal responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haipeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Jianhui Chen
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
| | - Menghan Qiu
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Zhilin Shi
- Institute of Dunhuang Studies, School of History & Culture, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Shengda Zhang
- School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510000, China
| | - Guanghui Dong
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Shuai Ma
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Tao Ai
- Xinjiang Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology, Ürümqi 830011, China
| | - Guan Ren
- Archaeology of Northern Ethnicity Institute, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
| | - Fahu Chen
- ALPHA, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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55
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Xiang K, Guo Q, Zhang B, Wang J, Jin N, Wang Z, Liu J, Wang C, Du Z, Wang L, Zhao J. Impact of Preseason Climate Factors on Vegetation Photosynthetic Phenology in Mid-High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:1254. [PMID: 38732469 PMCID: PMC11085198 DOI: 10.3390/plants13091254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2024] [Revised: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 05/13/2024]
Abstract
During the period preceding the vegetation growing season (GS), temperature emerges as the pivotal factor determining phenology in northern terrestrial ecosystems. Despite extensive research on the impact of daily mean temperature (Tmean) during the preseason period, the influence of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on vegetation photosynthetic phenology (i.e., the impact of the plant photosynthetic cycle on seasonal time scale) has largely been neglected. Using a long-term vegetation photosynthetic phenology dataset and historical climate data, we examine vegetation photosynthetic phenology dynamics and responses to climate change across the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from 2001 to 2020. Our data reveal an advancing trend in the start of the GS (SOS) by -0.15 days per year (days yr-1), affecting 72.1% of the studied area. This is particularly pronounced in western Canada, Alaska, eastern Asia, and latitudes north of 60°N. Conversely, the end of the GS (EOS) displays a delaying trend of 0.17 days yr-1, impacting 62.4% of the studied area, especially northern North America and northern Eurasia. The collective influence of an earlier SOS and a delayed EOS has resulted in the notably prolonged length of the GS (LOS) by 0.32 days yr-1 in the last two decades, affecting 70.9% of the studied area, with Eurasia and western North America being particularly noteworthy. Partial correlation coefficients of the SOS with preseason Tmean, DTR, and accumulated precipitation exhibited negative values in 98.4%, 93.0%, and 39.2% of the study area, respectively. However, there were distinct regional variations in the influence of climate factors on the EOS. The partial correlation coefficients of the EOS with preseason Tmean, DTR, and precipitation were positive in 58.6%, 50.1%, and 36.3% of the region, respectively. Our findings unveil the intricate mechanisms influencing vegetation photosynthetic phenology, holding crucial significance in understanding the dynamics of carbon sequestration within terrestrial ecosystems amidst climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kunlun Xiang
- Guangdong Ecological Meteorology Center, Guangzhou 510640, China;
- Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China
| | - Qian Guo
- Guangzhou Meteorological Satellite Ground Station, Guangzhou 510640, China;
| | - Beibei Zhang
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (B.Z.); (Z.W.); (J.L.); (C.W.)
| | - Jiaming Wang
- College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China;
| | - Ning Jin
- Department of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Shanxi Institute of Energy, Jinzhong 030600, China;
| | - Zicheng Wang
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (B.Z.); (Z.W.); (J.L.); (C.W.)
| | - Jiahui Liu
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (B.Z.); (Z.W.); (J.L.); (C.W.)
| | - Chenggong Wang
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (B.Z.); (Z.W.); (J.L.); (C.W.)
| | - Ziqiang Du
- Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China;
| | - Liang Wang
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (B.Z.); (Z.W.); (J.L.); (C.W.)
| | - Jie Zhao
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (B.Z.); (Z.W.); (J.L.); (C.W.)
- College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China;
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56
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Hassani A, Smith P, Shokri N. Negative correlation between soil salinity and soil organic carbon variability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2317332121. [PMID: 38669180 PMCID: PMC11067061 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2317332121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is vital for terrestrial ecosystems, affecting biogeochemical processes, and soil health. It is known that soil salinity impacts SOC content, yet the specific direction and magnitude of SOC variability in relation to soil salinity remain poorly understood. Analyzing 43,459 mineral soil samples (SOC < 150 g kg-1) collected across different land covers since 1992, we approximate a soil salinity increase from 1 to 5 dS m-1 in croplands would be associated with a decline in mineral soils SOC from 0.14 g kg-1 above the mean predicted SOC ([Formula: see text] = 18.47 g kg-1) to 0.46 g kg-1 below [Formula: see text] (~-430%), while for noncroplands, such decline is sharper, from 0.96 above [Formula: see text] = 35.96 g kg-1 to 4.99 below [Formula: see text] (~-620%). Although salinity's significance in explaining SOC variability is minor (<6%), we estimate a one SD increase in salinity of topsoil samples (0 to 7 cm) correlates with respective [Formula: see text] declines of ~4.4% and ~9.26%, relative to [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. The [Formula: see text] decline in croplands is greatest in vegetation/cropland mosaics while lands covered with evergreen needle-leaved trees are estimated with the highest [Formula: see text] decline in noncroplands. We identify soil nitrogen, land cover, and precipitation Seasonality Index as the most significant parameters in explaining the SOC's variability. The findings provide insights into SOC dynamics under increased soil salinity, improving understanding of SOC stock responses to land degradation and climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, AberdeenAB24 3UU, United Kingdom
| | - Nima Shokri
- Institute of Geo-Hydroinformatics, Hamburg University of Technology, 21073Hamburg, Germany
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57
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de Angeli Dutra D, Fontes C, Braga É, Mordecai E. Investigating the Yanomami malaria outbreak puzzle: surge in mining during Bolsonaro's government triggered peak in malaria burden. RESEARCH SQUARE 2024:rs.3.rs-4313946. [PMID: 38746301 PMCID: PMC11092824 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4313946/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
The Yanomami, an Indigenous people from the Amazon, confront multifaceted challenges endangering their health and cultural integrity. Of immediate concern is the surge in malaria cases in their territory during Bolsonaro's government. We investigated the impact of land use on malaria incidence among the Yanomami leveraging satellite imagery and ran difference-in-differences analyses to ask whether the Yanomami suffered disproportionately from malaria when illegal mining was rising in the region (2016-2022). We show a remarkable ~300% rise in malaria from 2016 to 2022 and point to mining as the primary driver of malaria among the Yanomami; when mining increases by 1%, malaria increases by 31%. After mining unfolded, the burden of malaria among the Yanomami was disproportionately higher, up to 15%, than in non-indigenous communities. Our findings underscore the impact of illegal mining on the high malaria burden suffered by the Yanomami and the importance of rainforest conservation and land sovereignty for Indigenous health.
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58
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Fu ZH, Zhou W, Xie SP, Zhang R, Wang X. Dynamic pathway linking Pakistan flooding to East Asian heatwaves. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadk9250. [PMID: 38657060 PMCID: PMC11042738 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk9250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024]
Abstract
In July to August 2022, Pakistan suffered historic flooding while record-breaking heatwaves swept southern China, causing severe socioeconomic impacts. Similar extreme events have frequently coincided between two regions during the past 44 years, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and a suite of model experiments, here, we show that the upper-tropospheric divergent wind induced by convective heating over Pakistan excites a barotropic anomalous anticyclone over eastern China, which further leads to persistent heatwaves. Atmospheric model ensemble simulation indicates that this dynamic pathway linking Pakistan flooding and East Asian heatwaves is intrinsic to the climate system, largely independent of global sea surface temperature forcing. This dynamic connection is most active during July to August when convective variability is large over Pakistan and the associated divergent flow excites barotropic Rossby waves that propagate eastward along the upper troposphere westerly waveguide. This robust waveguide and the time delay offer hopes for improved subseasonal prediction of extreme events in East Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheng-Hang Fu
- Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wen Zhou
- Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the MNR, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China
| | - Shang-Ping Xie
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Ruhua Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xudong Wang
- Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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59
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Chen F, Wang T, Zhao X, Esper J, Ljungqvist FC, Büntgen U, Linderholm HW, Meko D, Xu H, Yue W, Wang S, Yuan Y, Zheng J, Pan W, Roig F, Hadad M, Hu M, Wei J, Chen F. Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty's capital in 1644 CE. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2024:S2095-9273(24)00263-9. [PMID: 38811339 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.04.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2023] [Revised: 03/25/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from 1576 to 1593 CE and from 1624 to 1643 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Niña-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China, as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feng Chen
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650504, China.
| | - Tao Wang
- Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029, China
| | - Xiaoen Zhao
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Jan Esper
- Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz 55099, Germany; Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno 60300, Czech Republic
| | - Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
- Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden; Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Linneanum, Thunbergsvägen 2, Uppsala 75238, Sweden
| | - Ulf Büntgen
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK; Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno 60300, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno 61137, Czech Republic; Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - Hans W Linderholm
- Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden
| | - David Meko
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Hongna Xu
- Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‑FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Weipeng Yue
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Shijie Wang
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Yujiang Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
| | - Jingyun Zheng
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Wei Pan
- Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Fidel Roig
- Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza 5500, Argentina; Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería ForestalFacultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Huechuraba 8580745, Santiago, Chile
| | - Martín Hadad
- Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de Zonas Áridas CIGEOBIO (CONICET-UNSJ), Gabinete de Geología Ambiental (INGEO-UNSJ), San Juan 3306, Argentina
| | - Mao Hu
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Jiachang Wei
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Fahu Chen
- ALPHA, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITPCAS), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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60
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Yu Q, Qu Y, Zhang L, Yao X, Yang J, Chen S, Liu H, Wang Q, Wu M, Tao J, Zhou C, Alage IL, Liu S. Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2309087121. [PMID: 38557184 PMCID: PMC11009658 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2309087121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Accepted: 02/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Africa carries a disproportionately high share of the global malaria burden, accounting for 94% of malaria cases and deaths worldwide in 2019. It is also a politically unstable region and the most vulnerable continent to climate change in recent decades. Knowledge about the modifying impacts of violent conflict on climate-malaria relationships remains limited. Here, we quantify the associations between violent conflict, climate variability, and malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa using health surveys from 128,326 individuals, historical climate data, and 17,429 recorded violent conflicts from 2006 to 2017. We observe that spatial spillovers of violent conflict (SSVCs) have spatially distant effects on malaria risk. Malaria risk induced by SSVCs within 50 to 100 km from the households gradually increases from 0.1% (not significant, P>0.05) to 6.5% (95% CI: 0 to 13.0%). SSVCs significantly promote malaria risk within the average 20.1 to 26.9 °C range. At the 12-mo mean temperature of 22.5 °C, conflict deaths have the largest impact on malaria risk, with an approximately 5.8% increase (95% CI: 1.0 to 11.0%). Additionally, a pronounced association between SSVCs and malaria risk exists in the regions with 9.2 wet days per month. The results reveal that SSVCs increase population exposure to harsh environments, amplifying the effect of warm temperature and persistent precipitation on malaria transmission. Violent conflict therefore poses a substantial barrier to mosquito control and malaria elimination efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings support effective targeting of treatment programs and vector control activities in conflict-affected regions with a high malaria risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiwei Yu
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Ying Qu
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Liqiang Zhang
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Xin Yao
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Jing Yang
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Siyuan Chen
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Hui Liu
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Qihao Wang
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Mengfan Wu
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Junpei Tao
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
| | - Chenghu Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100101, China
| | - Isiaka Lukman Alage
- Space Research and Development Division, African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in English Ile ife, Ile ife, Osun220282, Nigeria
| | - Suhong Liu
- Department of Geography, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
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61
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Sharps K, Foster J, Vieno M, Beck R, Hayes F. Ozone pollution contributes to the yield gap for beans in Uganda, East Africa, and is co-located with other agricultural stresses. Sci Rep 2024; 14:8026. [PMID: 38580752 PMCID: PMC10997645 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58144-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Air quality negatively impacts agriculture, reducing the yield of staple food crops. While measured data on African ground-level ozone levels are scarce, experimental studies demonstrate the damaging impact of ozone on crops. Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris), an ozone-sensitive crop, are widely grown in Uganda. Using modelled ozone flux, agricultural surveys, and a flux-effect relationship, this study estimates yield and production losses due to ozone for Ugandan beans in 2015. Analysis at this scale allows the use of localised data, and results can be presented at a sub-regional level. Soil nutrient stress, drought, flood risk, temperature and deprivation were also mapped to investigate where stresses may coincide. Average bean yield losses due to ozone were 17% and 14% (first and second growing season respectively), equating to 184 thousand tonnes production loss. However, for some sub-regions, losses were up to 27.5% and other crop stresses also coincided in these areas. This methodology could be applied widely, allowing estimates of ozone impact for countries lacking air quality and/or experimental data. As crop productivity is below its potential in many areas of the world, changing agricultural practices to mitigate against losses due to ozone could help to reduce the crop yield gap.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Sharps
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW, UK.
| | - J Foster
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW, UK
| | - M Vieno
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK
| | - R Beck
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK
| | - F Hayes
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW, UK
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62
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Zheng X, Babst F, Camarero JJ, Li X, Lu X, Gao S, Sigdel SR, Wang Y, Zhu H, Liang E. Density-dependent species interactions modulate alpine treeline shifts. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14403. [PMID: 38577961 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Revised: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Abstract
Species interactions such as facilitation and competition play a crucial role in driving species range shifts. However, density dependence as a key feature of these processes has received little attention in both empirical and modelling studies. Herein, we used a novel, individual-based treeline model informed by rich in situ observations to quantify the contribution of density-dependent species interactions to alpine treeline dynamics, an iconic biome boundary recognized as an indicator of global warming. We found that competition and facilitation dominate in dense versus sparse vegetation scenarios respectively. The optimal balance between these two effects was identified at an intermediate vegetation thickness where the treeline elevation was the highest. Furthermore, treeline shift rates decreased sharply with vegetation thickness and the associated transition from positive to negative species interactions. We thus postulate that vegetation density must be considered when modelling species range dynamics to avoid inadequate predictions of its responses to climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangyu Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Flurin Babst
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Xiaoxia Li
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoming Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shan Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shalik Ram Sigdel
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yafeng Wang
- College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Haifeng Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Eryuan Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Al Moteri M, Alrowais F, Mtouaa W, Aljehane NO, Alotaibi SS, Marzouk R, Mustafa Hilal A, Ahmed NA. An enhanced drought forecasting in coastal arid regions using deep learning approach with evaporation index. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 246:118171. [PMID: 38215925 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Revised: 11/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 01/14/2024]
Abstract
Coastal arid regions are similar to deserts, where it receives significantly less rainfall, less than 10 cm. Perhaps the world's worst natural disaster, coastal area droughts, can only be detected using reliable monitoring systems. Creating a reliable drought forecast model and figuring out how well various models can analyze drought factors in coastal arid regions are two of the biggest obstacles in this field. Different time-series methods and machine-learning models have traditionally been utilized in forecasting strategies. Deep learning is promising when describing the complex interplay between coastal drought and its contributing variables. Considering the possibility of enhancing our understanding of drought features, applying deep learning approaches has yet to be tried widely. The current investigation employs a deep learning strategy. Coastal Drought indices are commonly used to comprehend the situation better; hence the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) was used since it incorporates temperatures and precipitation into its computation. An integrated coastal drought monitoring model was presented and validated using convolutional long short-term memory with self-attention (SA-CLSTM). The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset, which spans 1901-2018, was mined for the drought index and predictor data. To learn how LSTM forecasting could enhance drought forecasting, we analyzed the findings regarding numerous drought parameters (drought severity, drought category, or geographic variation). The model's ability to predict drought intensity was assessed using the Coefficient of Determination (R2), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Both the SPEI 1 and SPEI 3 examples had R2 values more than 0.99 for the model. The range of predicted outcomes for each drought group was analyzed using a multi-class Receiver Operating Characteristic based Area under Curves (ROC-AUC) method. The research showed that the AUC for SPEI 1 was 0.99 and for SPEI 3, 0.99. The study's results indicate progress over machine learning models for one month in advance, accounting for various drought conditions. This work's findings may be used to mitigate drought, and additional improvement can be achieved by testing other models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moteeb Al Moteri
- Department of Management Information System, College of Business, King Saud University, P. O Box 28095, Riyadh, 11437, Saudi Arabia
| | - Fadwa Alrowais
- Department of Computer Sciences, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh, 11671, Saudi Arabia
| | - Wafa Mtouaa
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Arts, King Khalid University, Muhayil Asir, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nojood O Aljehane
- Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computers and Information Technology, University of Tabuk, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia
| | - Saud S Alotaibi
- Department of Information Systems, College of Computing and Information System, Umm Al-Qura University, Saudi Arabia
| | - Radwa Marzouk
- Department of Information Systems, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh, 11671, Saudi Arabia
| | - Anwer Mustafa Hilal
- Department of Computer and Self Development, Preparatory Year Deanship, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, AlKharj, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Noura Abdelaziz Ahmed
- Department of Computer and Self Development, Preparatory Year Deanship, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, AlKharj, Saudi Arabia
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64
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Rauschkolb R, Bucher SF, Hensen I, Ahrends A, Fernández-Pascual E, Heubach K, Jakubka D, Jiménez-Alfaro B, König A, Koubek T, Kehl A, Khuroo AA, Lindstädter A, Shafee F, Mašková T, Platonova E, Panico P, Plos C, Primack R, Rosche C, Shah MA, Sporbert M, Stevens AD, Tarquini F, Tielbörger K, Träger S, Vange V, Weigelt P, Bonn A, Freiberg M, Knickmann B, Nordt B, Wirth C, Römermann C. Spatial variability in herbaceous plant phenology is mostly explained by variability in temperature but also by photoperiod and functional traits. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024; 68:761-775. [PMID: 38285109 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02621-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Revised: 01/05/2024] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 01/30/2024]
Abstract
Whereas temporal variability of plant phenology in response to climate change has already been well studied, the spatial variability of phenology is not well understood. Given that phenological shifts may affect biotic interactions, there is a need to investigate how the variability in environmental factors relates to the spatial variability in herbaceous species' phenology by at the same time considering their functional traits to predict their general and species-specific responses to future climate change. In this project, we analysed phenology records of 148 herbaceous species, which were observed for a single year by the PhenObs network in 15 botanical gardens. For each species, we characterised the spatial variability in six different phenological stages across gardens. We used boosted regression trees to link these variabilities in phenology to the variability in environmental parameters (temperature, latitude and local habitat conditions) as well as species traits (seed mass, vegetative height, specific leaf area and temporal niche) hypothesised to be related to phenology variability. We found that spatial variability in the phenology of herbaceous species was mainly driven by the variability in temperature but also photoperiod was an important driving factor for some phenological stages. In addition, we found that early-flowering and less competitive species characterised by small specific leaf area and vegetative height were more variable in their phenology. Our findings contribute to the field of phenology by showing that besides temperature, photoperiod and functional traits are important to be included when spatial variability of herbaceous species is investigated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Rauschkolb
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution with Herbarium Haussknecht and Botanical Garden, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
| | - Solveig Franziska Bucher
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution with Herbarium Haussknecht and Botanical Garden, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
| | - Isabell Hensen
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | | | | | - Katja Heubach
- Palmengarten and Botanical Garden Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Desiree Jakubka
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution with Herbarium Haussknecht and Botanical Garden, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
| | - Borja Jiménez-Alfaro
- Biodiversity Research Institute, IMIB (Univ.Oviedo-CSIC-Princ.Asturias), Mieres, Spain
| | - Andreas König
- Palmengarten and Botanical Garden Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Tomáš Koubek
- Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Kehl
- Institute of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Anzar A Khuroo
- Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Anja Lindstädter
- Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Department of Biodiversity Research/Systematic Botany with Botanical Garden, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Faizan Shafee
- Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Tereza Mašková
- Institute of Plant Sciences, Ecology and Conservation Biology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | | | - Patrizia Panico
- Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Carolin Plos
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | | | - Christoph Rosche
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Manzoor A Shah
- Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Maria Sporbert
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | | | - Flavio Tarquini
- Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Katja Tielbörger
- Institute of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Sabrina Träger
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Vibekke Vange
- Ringve Botanical Garden, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Patrick Weigelt
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
- Campus Institute Data Science, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - Aletta Bonn
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Ecosystem Services, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biodiversity, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
| | - Martin Freiberg
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Life Science, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Birgit Nordt
- Botanic Garden Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Christian Wirth
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Life Science, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
- Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - Christine Römermann
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution with Herbarium Haussknecht and Botanical Garden, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
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65
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Cao Y, Peng J, Zhou S, Chen X. Impacts of climate warming and atmospheric deposition on recent shifts in chironomid communities in two alpine lakes, eastern China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 246:118133. [PMID: 38191047 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2023] [Revised: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 01/10/2024]
Abstract
Climate warming and atmospheric deposition are altering alpine lake ecosystems at unprecedented rates, whereas their direct and indirect effects on primary consumer communities are unclear. This study presents sedimentary multi-proxy records including chironomids, diatoms, elements and stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in 210Pb-dated cores from two alpine lakes located above the timberline in the Taibai Mountain, eastern China. Before ∼2000 CE, chironomid communities were co-dominated by Heterotrissocladius marcidus-type and Micropsectra atrofasciata-type in the two lakes. Thereafter, Tanytarsus glabrescens-type increased rapidly to be a dominant species. Redundancy analyses (RDAs) revealed that chironomid fauna shifts were significantly correlated with rising diatom concentrations in both lakes, declining Ti content in the upstream lake and δ13C depletion in the downstream lake. Although temperature, precipitation and δ15N were not significant explanatory variables in RDAs, climate warming and atmospheric deposition likely promoted terrestrial and aquatic primary production, indicated by synchronous increases in organic matter contents and diatom concentrations in the two sediment cores. Since diatoms contain essential polyunsaturated fatty acids that are essential for chironomids, rising diatom concentrations can promote food quantity and quality. In addition, increased primary production would create organic substrates for chironomid larvae. Recent shifts in chironomid fauna driven by indirect effects of global warming and atmospheric deposition might be a widespread phenomenon in alpine lakes, probably triggering regime shifts in headwater lake ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanmin Cao
- College of Resources and Environment, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan, 430074, China; School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK; Hubei Key Laboratory of Critical Zone Evolution, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China.
| | - Jia Peng
- Hubei Key Laboratory of Critical Zone Evolution, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China
| | - Siqi Zhou
- College of Resources and Environment, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan, 430074, China
| | - Xu Chen
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK; Hubei Key Laboratory of Critical Zone Evolution, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China
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66
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McPartland MY. Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024; 68:701-717. [PMID: 38236422 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02616-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Revised: 12/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/28/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mara Y McPartland
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Potsdam, Germany.
- Department of Geography, Environment & Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
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67
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Ji P, Chen J, Chen R, Liu J, Yu C, Chen F. Nitrogen and phosphorus trends in lake sediments of China may diverge. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2644. [PMID: 38531852 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46968-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The brief history of monitoring nutrient levels in Chinese lake waters limits our understanding of the causes and the long-term trends of their eutrophication and constrains effective lake management. We therefore synthesize nutrient data from lakes in China to reveal the historical changes and project their future trends to 2100 using models. Here we show that the average concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in lake sediments have increased by 267% and 202%, respectively since 1850. In the model projections, 2030-2100, the nitrogen concentrations in the studied lakes in China may decrease, for example, by 87% in the southern districts and by 19% in the northern districts. However, the phosphorus concentrations will continue to increase by an average of 25% in the Eastern Plain, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and Xinjiang. Based on this differentiation, we suggest that nitrogen and phosphorus management in Chinese lakes should be carried out at the district level to help develop rational and sustainable environmental management strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Panpan Ji
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Jianhui Chen
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Ruijin Chen
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Jianbao Liu
- ALPHA, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Chaoqing Yu
- College of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou, 570228, China
| | - Fahu Chen
- MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
- ALPHA, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
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68
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Gray C, Thiede BC. Temperature anomalies undermine the health of reproductive-age women in low- and middle-income countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2311567121. [PMID: 38442166 PMCID: PMC10945799 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311567121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change is expected to undermine population health and well-being in low- and middle-income countries, but relatively few analyses have directly examined these effects using individual-level data at global scales, particularly for reproductive-age women. To address this lacuna, we harmonize nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on reproductive health, body mass index (BMI), and temporary migration from 2.5 million adult women (ages 15 to 49) in approximately 109,000 sites across 59 low- and middle-income countries, which we link to high-resolution climate data. We use this linked dataset to estimate fixed-effect logistic regression models of demographic and health outcomes as a function of climate exposures, woman-level and site-level characteristics, seasonality, and regional time trends, allowing us to plausibly isolate climate effects from other influences on health and migration. Specifically, we measure the effects of recent exposures to temperature and precipitation anomalies on the likelihood of having a live birth in the past year, desire for another child, use of modern contraception, underweight (BMI < 18.5), and temporary migration, and subsequently allow for nonlinearity as well as heterogeneity across education, rural/urban residence, and baseline climate. This analysis reveals that exposures to high temperatures increase live births, reduce desire for another child, increase underweight, and increase temporary migration, particularly in rural areas. The findings represent clear evidence that anthropogenic temperature increases contribute to temporary migration and are a significant threat to women's health and reproductive autonomy in low- and middle-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clark Gray
- Department of Geography and Environment, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC27599
| | - Brian C. Thiede
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
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Moore MP, Nalley SE, Hamadah D. An evolutionary innovation for mating facilitates ecological niche expansion and buffers species against climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2313371121. [PMID: 38408245 PMCID: PMC10927580 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2313371121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 02/28/2024] Open
Abstract
One of the drivers of life's diversification has been the emergence of "evolutionary innovations": The evolution of traits that grant access to underused ecological niches. Since ecological interactions can occur separately from mating, mating-related traits have not traditionally been considered factors in niche evolution. However, in order to persist in their environment, animals need to successfully mate just as much as they need to survive. Innovations that facilitate mating activity may therefore be an overlooked determinant of species' ecological limits. Here, we show that species' historical niches and responses to contemporary climate change are shaped by an innovation involved in mating-a waxy, ultra-violet-reflective pruinescence produced by male dragonflies. Physiological experiments in two species demonstrate that pruinescence reduces heating and water loss. Phylogenetic analyses show that pruinescence is gained after taxa begin adopting a thermohydrically stressful mating behavior. Further comparative analyses reveal that pruinose species are more likely to breed in exposed, open-canopy microhabitats. Biogeographic analyses uncover that pruinose species occupy warmer and drier regions in North America. Citizen-science observations of Pachydiplax longipennis suggest that the extent of pruinescence can be optimized to match the local conditions. Finally, temporal analyses indicate that pruinose species have been buffered against contemporary climate change. Overall, these historical and contemporary patterns show that successful mating can shape species' niche limits in the same way as growth and survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael P. Moore
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO80217
- Living Earth Collaborative, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO63130
| | - Sarah E. Nalley
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO80217
| | - Dalal Hamadah
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO80217
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70
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Schnabel F, Barry KE, Eckhardt S, Guillemot J, Geilmann H, Kahl A, Moossen H, Bauhus J, Wirth C. Neighbourhood species richness and drought-tolerance traits modulate tree growth and δ 13 C responses to drought. PLANT BIOLOGY (STUTTGART, GERMANY) 2024; 26:330-345. [PMID: 38196270 DOI: 10.1111/plb.13611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/24/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
Mixed-species forests are promoted as a forest management strategy for climate change adaptation, but whether they are more resistant to drought than monospecific forests remains contested. In particular, the trait-based mechanisms driving the role of tree diversity under drought remain elusive. Using tree cores from a large-scale biodiversity experiment, we investigated tree growth and physiological stress responses (i.e. increase in wood carbon isotopic ratio; δ13 C) to changes in climate-induced water availability (wet to dry years) along gradients in neighbourhood tree species richness and drought-tolerance traits. We hypothesized that neighbourhood species richness increases growth and decreases δ13 C and that these relationships are modulated by the abiotic (i.e. climatic conditions) and the biotic context. We characterised the biotic context using drought-tolerance traits of focal trees and their neighbours. These traits are related to cavitation resistance versus resource acquisition and stomatal control. Tree growth increased with neighbourhood species richness. However, we did not observe a universal relief of water stress in species-rich neighbourhoods. The effects of neighbourhood species richness and climate on growth and δ13 C were modulated by the traits of focal trees and the traits of their neighbours. At either end of each drought-tolerance gradient, species responded in opposing directions during dry and wet years. We show that species' drought-tolerance traits can explain the strength and nature of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in experimental tree communities experiencing drought. Mixing tree species can increase growth but may not universally relieve drought stress.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Schnabel
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
- Chair of Silviculture, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - K E Barry
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
- Ecology and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - S Eckhardt
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - J Guillemot
- CIRAD, UMR Eco&Sols, Piracicaba, Brazil
- Eco&Sols, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Campus SupAgro, Montpellier, France
- Department of Forest Sciences, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil
| | - H Geilmann
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - A Kahl
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - H Moossen
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - J Bauhus
- Chair of Silviculture, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - C Wirth
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
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71
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Seufert J, Krishnan N, Darmstadt GL, Wang G, Bärnighausen T, Geldsetzer P. Subnational estimates of vitamin A supplementation coverage in children: a geospatial analysis of 45 low- and middle-income countries. Public Health 2024; 228:194-199. [PMID: 38394746 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.01.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Revised: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 01/19/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) can protect children from the adverse health consequences of vitamin A deficiency. Granular data on VAS coverage can guide global and national efforts to achieve universal VAS coverage. To provide geographically precise targeting of VAS programs and to monitor progress in reducing geographic disparities, we aimed to create high-resolution (5 × 5 km2) maps of VAS coverage in children under 5 years across VAS priority countries. STUDY DESIGN We used cross-sectional data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program. METHODS We used data from the DHS program for United Nations Children's Fund -designated VAS priority countries between 2000 and 2017 with data available from 2005 or later. The outcome variable was the proportion of children under 5 years who received a vitamin A dose in each sampled cluster. We applied a Bayesian geostatistical approach incorporating geographic, climatic, and nutritional covariates to estimate VAS coverage for each cell. We estimated and mapped absolute VAS coverage, Bayesian uncertainty intervals, and exceedance probabilities. RESULTS Our sample included countries from Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and Africa. Most countries had estimated VAS coverage levels <70%, and our exceedance probabilities indicated high certainty that our estimates fell below this threshold in most grid cells. International variations were most notable in the Latin America and the Caribbean region and Africa. Intranational variations were greatest in some South Asian and West and Central African countries. CONCLUSIONS These prevalence and exceedance maps, especially used with data on indicators of VAS need, could help to improve equity.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Seufert
- Department of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
| | - N Krishnan
- Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - G L Darmstadt
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - G Wang
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - T Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Medical Faculty, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Africa Research Institute, Durban, South Africa; Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - P Geldsetzer
- Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, CA, USA
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72
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Podshibyakin D, Padilo L, Agoltsov V, Chernykh O, Popova O, Mutalif K, Solotova N. Analysis of environmental factors influencing lumpy skin disease outbreak seasonality and assessment of its spread risk in the Saratovskaya oblast of Russia. Vet World 2024; 17:630-644. [PMID: 38680138 PMCID: PMC11045518 DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2024.630-644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and Aim Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary viral disease of cattle that causes serious economic losses due to a significant decrease in meat and milk productivity. This study analyzed the influence of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors on LSD spread seasonality and assessed the risk of LSD outbreaks in the Saratovskaya oblast of the Russian Federation. Materials and Methods Data on LSD outbreaks and environmental factors during different seasons were collected for the period 2011-2020 in the Balkan Peninsula, Middle East, and Russia. Risk assessment was performed using mathematical modeling with generalized linear regression and maximum entropy. Results Fourteen statistically significant environmental factors influencing LSD spread were identified. The analysis of MaxEnt models built using the selected factors showed that the presence of the pathogen is mostly exerted by: the density of susceptible cattle (an increased risk is observed at a density above 10 and 20 heads/10 km2 in winter and autumn, with a permanent risk in spring and summer), the density of water bodies (the risk is increased at any density in winter and autumn, in the range of 13-23.5 m2/km2 in spring, in the ranges of 0-8 and over 14.5 m2/km2 in summer), and average monthly precipitation rate (the most risky are 105-185 mm/month in winter, 35 mm in spring, 15-105 mm in summer, and above 50 mm in autumn). Conclusion LSD tends to spread during the warm season. Compared with other test zones, the Saratovskaya oblast has a negligible risk of disease spread (in winter), low risk (in spring), or medium risk (in summer and autumn). The annual risk is low to medium.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dmitry Podshibyakin
- Scientific Research Institute of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry Technologies and Biotechnology LLC, Saratov, Russia
| | - Larisa Padilo
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State University of Genetics, Biotechnology and Engineering Named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia
| | - Valery Agoltsov
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State University of Genetics, Biotechnology and Engineering Named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia
| | - Oleg Chernykh
- Department of Microbiology and Animal Virology, Kuban State Agrarian University Named after I.T. Trubulin, Krasnodar, Russia
| | - Olga Popova
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State University of Genetics, Biotechnology and Engineering Named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia
| | - Kalabekov Mutalif
- Department of Animal Management and Veterinary-Sanitary Expertise, Kabardino-Balkaria State Agrarian University Named after V.M. Kokov, Nalchik, Russia
| | - Nataliya Solotova
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State University of Genetics, Biotechnology and Engineering Named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia
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73
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Manvailer V, Hamann A. Validation of global precipitation time series products against tree ring records and remotely sensed vegetation greenness. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0299111. [PMID: 38421994 PMCID: PMC10903888 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 02/05/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Global interpolated climate products are widely used in ecological research to investigate biosphere-climate interactions and to track ecological response to climate variability and climate change. In turn, biological data could also be used for an independent validation of one aspect of climate data quality. All else being equal, more variance explained in biological data identifies the better climate data product. Here, we compare seven global precipitation time series products, including gauge-based datasets (CRU-TS, UDEL-TS, GPCC), re-analysis products (ERA5, CHELSA), a satellite-based dataset (PERSIANN) and a multi-source product that draws on gauge, re-analysis, and satellite data (MSWEP). We focus on precipitation variables, because they are more difficult to interpolate than temperature, and show larger divergence among gridded data products. Our validation is based on 20 years of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (MODIS-EVI) and 120 years of tree ring records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The results for the 20-year EVI based validation shows that all gauge and re-analysis data products performed similarly, but were outperformed by the multi-source MSWEP product, especially in regions with low weather station coverage, such as Africa. For analyzing long 120-year time-series, UDEL-TS showed superior performance prior to the 1940s, with especially large margins for northern Asia and the Himalayas region. For other regions, CRU-TS and GPCC could be recommended. We provide maps that can guide the best regional choice of climate product for research involving time series of biological response to historic climate variability and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vinicius Manvailer
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
- Department of Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Andreas Hamann
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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Stríkis NM, Buarque PFSM, Cruz FW, Bernal JP, Vuille M, Tejedor E, Santos MS, Shimizu MH, Ampuero A, Du W, Sampaio G, Sales HDR, Campos JL, Kayano MT, Apaèstegui J, Fu RR, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Mayta VC, Francischini DDS, Arruda MAZ, Novello VF. Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1728. [PMID: 38409095 PMCID: PMC11258244 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45469-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 02/28/2024] Open
Abstract
A better understanding of the relative roles of internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to better project future hydrologic changes. Changes in the evaporative demand play a central role in this context, particularly in tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as the tropical savannah and semi-desertic biomes. Here we present a set of geochemical proxies in speleothems from a well-ventilated cave located in central-eastern Brazil which shows that the evaporative demand is no longer being met by precipitation, leading to a hydrological deficit. A marked change in the hydrologic balance in central-eastern Brazil, caused by a severe warming trend, can be identified, starting in the 1970s. Our findings show that the current aridity has no analog over the last 720 years. A detection and attribution study indicates that this trend is mostly driven by anthropogenic forcing and cannot be explained by natural factors alone. These results reinforce the premise of a severe long-term drought in the subtropics of eastern South America that will likely be further exacerbated in the future given its apparent connection to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo-SP, Brazil.
- Departamento de Geoquímica, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niterói, Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil.
| | - Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo-SP, Brazil
- Departamento de Geoquímica, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niterói, Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil
- Universidade Estadual de Goias (UEG), Iporá, Goiás-GO, Brazil
- Instituto Federal Goiano, Ceres, Goiás-GO, Brazil
| | - Francisco William Cruz
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo-SP, Brazil
| | - Juan Pablo Bernal
- Centro de Geociencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Querétaro, México
| | - Mathias Vuille
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, USA
| | - Ernesto Tejedor
- Department of Geology, National Museum of Natural Sciences-Spanish National Research Council (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Matheus Simões Santos
- Departamento de Geoquímica, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niterói, Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil
| | - Marília Harumi Shimizu
- General Coordination of Earth Sciences, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Angela Ampuero
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo-SP, Brazil
| | - Wenjing Du
- Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Gilvan Sampaio
- General Coordination of Earth Sciences, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Hamilton Dos Reis Sales
- Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Norte de Minas Gerais, Januária, Brazil
| | - José Leandro Campos
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo-SP, Brazil
| | - Mary Toshie Kayano
- General Coordination of Earth Sciences, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - James Apaèstegui
- Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru
- Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Programa de Maestria en Recursos Hídricos, Lima, Peru
| | - Roger R Fu
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Hai Cheng
- Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - R Lawrence Edwards
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA
| | - Victor Chavez Mayta
- Department of Climate and Space Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
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Jiménez T, Peña-Villalobos I, Arcila J, Del Basto F, Palma V, Sabat P. The effects of urban thermal heterogeneity and feather coloration on oxidative stress and metabolism of pigeons (Columba livia). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169564. [PMID: 38142996 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 11/23/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/26/2023]
Abstract
Urbanization stands out as a significant anthropogenic factor, exerting selective pressures on ecosystems and biotic components. A notable outcome of urbanization is thermal heterogeneity where the emergence of Urban Heat Islands is characterized by elevated air and surface temperatures compared to adjacent rural areas. Investigating the influence of thermal heterogeneity on urban animals could offer insights into how temperature variations can lead to phenotypic shifts. Urban pigeons (Columba livia) serve as an excellent model for studying urban thermal effects, given the melanism variations, which are associated with the pleiotropy of the melanocortin system. To examine the development of physiological plasticity in response to urban thermal variations, we conducted a study on pigeons in Santiago, Chile, during the rainy season. We assessed the influence of habitat on physiological traits related to metabolism and antioxidant capacities, which are theoretically affected by feather coloration. Our findings reveal that variations in melanism significantly impact pigeon physiology, affecting both antioxidant capacities and the mitochondrial activity of red blood cells. It was found that higher urban temperatures, from both the current sampling month and the prior sampling month (from CRU TS dataset), were negatively and strongly associated with lower antioxidant and metabolic activities. This suggests that elevated urban temperatures likely benefit the energetic budgets of pigeon populations and mitigate the negative effects of oxidative metabolism, with differential effects depending on feather colorations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomás Jiménez
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Isaac Peña-Villalobos
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Células troncales y Biología del Desarrollo, Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
| | - Javiera Arcila
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Francisco Del Basto
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Verónica Palma
- Laboratorio de Células troncales y Biología del Desarrollo, Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Pablo Sabat
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nucleus of Patagonian Limit of Life (LiLi)
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76
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Gallitelli L, Cutini M, Scalici M. Riparian vegetation plastic monitoring: A harmonized protocol for sampling macrolitter in vegetated riverine habitats. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169570. [PMID: 38145673 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2023] [Revised: 12/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/27/2023]
Abstract
Many studies highlighted that rivers transported land-based plastics to the sea. However, most of the litter remains stuck in the fluvial ecosystem, also blocked by vegetation. To date, research on riverine macrolitter focused on floating and riverbank monitoring, thus methods to sample riverbank and floating litter have been developed. Concerning rivers, few recent studies highlighted the role of riparian vegetation in entrapping plastics. Given that vegetation represents a large part of riverine ecosystems and that the dynamics of plastics entrapped by vegetation are neglected, it appears pivotal to study in more detail how vegetation contributes to plastic retention. However, as current protocols and guidelines considered only floating and riverbank plastics without providing standardized and updated strategies to monitor litter in vegetation, here we aimed to develop a new standardized protocol and tools to assess plastics in vegetation. Specifically, we focused on unveiling the three-tridimensional structure of vegetation in relation to plastic occurrence, while considering seasonal and hydromorphological aspects. To investigate the trapping effect of vegetation, we developed a three-dimensional vegetation structure index (3DVI) related to plastics. The 3DVI index considers plant structure (i.e., number of branches) and diversity (i.e., species). To test the 3DVI, we conducted an in-situ case study in central Italy. We found that both primary and secondary riparian vegetation blocked plastic litter. In detail, 3DVI correlated with the number of plastics, highlighting that the densest and most diverse communities trap more plastics. Furthermore, we provided for the first time the assessment of seasonality for the macroplastic entrapment by riparian vegetation and a preliminary quantification of wind-blown plastics. Our results should be of interest to promote the development of standardized and harmonized monitoring strategies for riparian habitat management and conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Gallitelli
- University of Roma Tre, Department of Sciences, Viale Guglielmo Marconi, 446 00146 Rome, Italy.
| | - M Cutini
- University of Roma Tre, Department of Sciences, Viale Guglielmo Marconi, 446 00146 Rome, Italy
| | - M Scalici
- University of Roma Tre, Department of Sciences, Viale Guglielmo Marconi, 446 00146 Rome, Italy; National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Università di Palermo, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo, Italy
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77
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Popa A, van der Maaten E, Popa I, van der Maaten-Theunissen M. Early warning signals indicate climate change-induced stress in Norway spruce in the Eastern Carpathians. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169167. [PMID: 38072249 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Revised: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/22/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is affecting forest ecosystems globally, in particular through warming as well as increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) is one of the most important coniferous tree species in Europe. In recent extremely dry years in Central Europe, spruce suffered and large dieback has been observed. In parts of Eastern Europe, however, no large-scale decline in spruce has been reported so far, though anticipated changes in climate pose the question how the future of these forests may look like. To assess the current state of spruce forests in Eastern Europe, we established a tree-ring network consisting of 157 Norway spruce chronologies (from >3000 trees) of different ages distributed along elevational transects in the Eastern Carpathians, Romania. We evaluated early warning signals of climate change-induced stress, i.e. (1) growth decline, (2) increased sensitivity of tree growth (assessed over the statistics first-order autocorrelation and standard deviation), and (3) increased growth synchrony. A pronounced growth decline was observed over the last two decades, which was strongest in younger stands and at lower elevations. However, growth sensitivity and synchrony did not show consistent patterns, suggesting that forest decline may not be immediately imminent. Overall, our findings highlight an increased vulnerability of spruce in the Eastern Carpathians. With ongoing climate change, spruce dieback may be expected in this part of Europe as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrei Popa
- National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry 'Marin Dracea', Bucharest, Romania; Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, Transilvania University of Brasov, Brasov, Romania.
| | | | - Ionel Popa
- National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry 'Marin Dracea', Bucharest, Romania; Center for Mountain Economy (CE-MONT), Vatra Dornei, Romania
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Akbas A. Human or climate? Differentiating the anthropogenic and climatic drivers of lake storage changes on spatial perspective via remote sensing data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:168982. [PMID: 38036137 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Revised: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023]
Abstract
Lakes are an essential part of the terrestrial water system in which storage changes are controlled by water balance and human impact. Although there are some attempts to define storage changes on a global scale, examination of spatial relations is poorly quantified. In this study, therefore, lake storage changes have been investigated using remote-sensing-derived data around the globe. Hence, 372 artificial/natural lakes were obtained, covering between 1992 and 2019. Watersheds belong to river was extracted via HydroSHED data. Based on watershed, dominant climate types were determined via Köppen-Geiger classification. Similarly, the areal average CRU TS v.4.05 monthly gridded precipitation time series and human footprint data based on watersheds were obtained to understand the drivers of lake storage changes. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope trend analyses were applied to the lake storage change and precipiation values in order to determine long-term increases and decreases. A bivariate map was constructed between storage changes trend vs precipitation trend and human footprint to reveal the drivers of lake storage changes in terms of spatial aspects. The trend analysis and bivariate map results show that North America, the East African Highlands, and the Tibet plateau are important increasing hotspots, where precipitation is a significant driver for storage oscillations, except for the Tibet plateau. Besides, the Brazilian Highlands, Pacific Mountain System, and Intermontane of conterminous USA are other decreasing hotspots in which human footprint and decreasing precipitation collectively affect these changes. Furthermore, results clearly show that anthropogenic influence is low in the northern and mountainous areas, and storage changes have a linear relationship with precipitation. In contrast, intense human climate interaction influences lake changes in plains areas and arid/temperate climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdullah Akbas
- Geography Department, Physical Geography Division, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey.
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79
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Camarero JJ, Sánchez-Miranda Á, Colangelo M, Matías L. Climatic drivers of cork growth depend on site aridity. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169574. [PMID: 38145669 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/27/2023]
Abstract
Cork is one of the main non-timber forest products in the world. Most of its production is concentrated in the Iberian Peninsula, a climate change hotspot. Climate warming may lead to increased aridification and reduce cork production in that region. However, we still lack assessments of climate-cork relationships across ample geographical and climatic gradients explicitly considering site aridity. We quantified cork growth by measuring cork ring width and related it to climate variables and a drought index using dendrochronology. Four cork oak (Quercus suber) forests located from north eastern Spain to south western Morocco (31.5-41.5° N) and subjected to different aridity levels were sampled. Warm conditions in spring to early summer, when cork is formed, reduced cork width, whereas high precipitation in winter and spring enhanced it. The response of cork to increased water availability in summer peaked (r = 0.89, p = 0.00002) in the most arid and continental site considering 14-month long droughts. A severe drought caused a disproportionate loss of cork production in this site, where for every five-fold decrease in the drought index, the cork-width index declined by a factor of thirteen. Therefore, site aridity determines the responses of cork growth to the soil water availability resulting from accumulated precipitation during winter and spring previous to cork growth and until summer. In general, this cumulative water balance, which is very dependent on temperature and evapotranspiration rate, is critical for cork production, especially in continental, dry sites. The precipitation during the hydrological year can be used as a proxy of cork production in similar sites. Assessments of climate-cork relationships in the western Mediterranean basin could be used as analogues to forecast the impacts of aridification on future cork production.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Julio Camarero
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain.
| | | | - Michele Colangelo
- Scuola di Scienze Agrarie, Forestali, Alimentari e Ambientali, Università della Basilicata, Viale dell'Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy.
| | - Luis Matías
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain.
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80
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Chen Z, Wang W, Forzieri G, Cescatti A. Transition from positive to negative indirect CO 2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1500. [PMID: 38374331 PMCID: PMC10876672 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45957-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Although elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zefeng Chen
- National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| | - Weiguang Wang
- National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
- Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
| | - Giovanni Forzieri
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
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81
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Mitkari KV, Sofat S, Arora MK, Tiwari RK. Relationship between the variations in glacier features classified on a large scale with climate variables: a case study of Gangotri Glacier. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2024; 196:254. [PMID: 38342848 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-12417-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
Changes in glacier area, glacial lakes, debris cover, and geomorphological features such as debris fans have a significant impact on glacial dynamics. Therefore, precise and timely observation and tracking of glacier surface changes is a necessity. The availability of high spatial resolution remote sensing images has made it viable to analyse the glacier surface changes at a local level. However, with an increase in spatial resolution, the spectral variability increases, giving rise to additional challenges (such as false changes and misregistration) in the change detection process. These challenges can preferably be dealt with using an object-based change detection (OBCD) approach rather than the conventional pixel-based change detection approach. Therefore, this study has proposed an OBCD methodology using high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images to detect changes in glacier features. Variability in glacier features has been further analysed by associating it with important climate variables, that is, air temperature and precipitation. As a case study, the changes in Gangotri Glacier (Uttarakhand Himalayas in India) features have been studied using high-spatial-resolution WorldView-2 and Linear Imaging Self-Scanning System (LISS)-4 images for a 3-year period 2011-2014. The spectral correspondences between glacier surface and non-glacier surface have been handled by considering brightness temperature and slope as ancillary data to improvise their distinction. A change detection accuracy of ~ 84% has been obtained using the OBCD approach. Results further show that the variations in glacier features are in congruence with the climatic observations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kavita Vaijanath Mitkari
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Punjab Engineering College (Deemed to be University), Sector 12, Chandigarh, 160012, India.
| | - Sanjeev Sofat
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Punjab Engineering College (Deemed to be University), Sector 12, Chandigarh, 160012, India
| | - Manoj Kumar Arora
- Mangalagiri-Mandal, Neeru Konda, SRM University, Amaravati, Andhra Pradesh, 522502, India
| | - Reet Kamal Tiwari
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, Rupnagar, Punjab, 140001, India
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82
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Luo X, Zhou H, Satriawan TW, Tian J, Zhao R, Keenan TF, Griffith DM, Sitch S, Smith NG, Still CJ. Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1219. [PMID: 38336770 PMCID: PMC10858286 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45606-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/30/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Plants with the C4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C3-type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C4 and C3 vegetation distributions. However, current C4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C4 vegetation. We find that global C4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO2 favoring C3-type photosynthesis, and an increase in C4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18-23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangzhong Luo
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Center for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Haoran Zhou
- School of Earth System Science, Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
| | - Tin W Satriawan
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jiaqi Tian
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ruiying Zhao
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Trevor F Keenan
- Department of Ecosystem Sciences, Policy and Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Daniel M Griffith
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Stephen Sitch
- Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Nicholas G Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA
| | - Christopher J Still
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
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83
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Freihardt J. Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2024; 177:25. [PMID: 38313455 PMCID: PMC10830697 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/06/2024]
Abstract
Effective climate change adaptation requires a thorough understanding of whether and how affected populations perceive climatic and environmental changes. Existing research has been inconclusive regarding the consistency of these perceptions compared to objective meteorological indicators. Moreover, no systematic comparison has been done for the perception of discrete environmental events such as floods or erosion. This study relies on novel panel survey data of approximately 1700 households residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh as well as on unique individual-level, satellite-based erosion data. It compares respondents' perceptions of environmental events, namely riverbank erosion, and three climate change indicators, specifically long-term temperature change and changes in precipitation during wet and dry seasons, to objective measurements using satellite imagery and climatic time-series data (CRU TS). I find that long-term temperature change is perceived more accurately than long-term changes in precipitation. Given that educational attainment and climate change literacy among the study population are low, this indicates that global temperature increases are felt even by remote populations who have never heard the term climate change. Erosion is strongly overestimated, especially by those respondents who had been personally affected by it. Since human behavior is guided by perceptions rather than objective data, this has important policy implications, underlining the importance of considering people's perceptions if the goal is to assist them in adapting to environmental changes. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Freihardt
- Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS), ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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84
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Gerber JS, Ray DK, Makowski D, Butler EE, Mueller ND, West PC, Johnson JA, Polasky S, Samberg LH, Siebert S, Sloat L. Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation. NATURE FOOD 2024; 5:125-135. [PMID: 38279050 PMCID: PMC10896731 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00913-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2024]
Abstract
Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of 'steady growth' in actual and attainable yields, 'stalled floor' where yield is stagnated and 'ceiling pressure' where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing 'steady growth', in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing 'ceiling pressure'. We show that 'ceiling pressure' correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.
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Affiliation(s)
- James S Gerber
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA.
- Project Drawdown, .
| | - Deepak K Ray
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - David Makowski
- Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Palaiseau, France
| | - Ethan E Butler
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Nathaniel D Mueller
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Paul C West
- Project Drawdown
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | | | - Stefan Siebert
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
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85
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Shirey V, Neupane N, Guralnick R, Ries L. Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17205. [PMID: 38403895 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 02/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under-sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold-adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm-adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range-wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high-latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence-only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vaughn Shirey
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
- Marine and Environmental Biology Section, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Naresh Neupane
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Robert Guralnick
- Florida Museum of Natural History - University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Leslie Ries
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
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86
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Su J, Fan L, Yuan Z, Wang Z, Wang Z. Quantifying the drought sensitivity of grassland under different climate zones in Northwest China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 910:168688. [PMID: 37992825 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Revised: 11/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023]
Abstract
Grassland is essential for maintaining the stability and functionality of terrestrial ecosystems. Although previous research has explored how grassland responds to drought, the drought sensitivity of grassland (DSG) across climate zones and aridity gradients remains uncertain. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive investigation spanning 1982 to 2015 in Northwest China. To assess the time-cumulative effect (TCE) and the time-lag effect (TLE) of drought on grassland, we employed Spearman rank correlation analysis, utilizing long-term datasets of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). This analysis allowed us to quantify the DSG in the region and further examine its variations across climate zones and aridity gradient. Our results revealed that 81.2 % and 99.7 % of the grassland in Northwest China was influenced by the TCE and TLE of drought, respectively, with 38.2 % and 60.9 % of these effects being statistically significant (p < 0.05). The mean accumulated and lagged timescales of drought on grassland were 7.89 and 9.41 months, respectively. Remarkably, the highest DSG was observed in the semi-arid zone (0.58), followed by the arid (0.54), sub-humid (0.51), and humid (0.44) zones. Furthermore, we identified significant nonlinear variation patterns of DSG along the aridity gradient, characterized by several discernible trend breaks. These findings contribute to our understanding of the impacts of drought on vegetation, particularly in ecologically fragile regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingxuan Su
- School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454003, China
| | - Liangxin Fan
- School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454003, China.
| | - Zhanliang Yuan
- School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454003, China
| | - Zhen Wang
- School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454003, China
| | - Zhijun Wang
- School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454003, China
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87
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Lorer E, Verheyen K, Blondeel H, De Pauw K, Sanczuk P, De Frenne P, Landuyt D. Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 241:1476-1491. [PMID: 38031641 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eline Lorer
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Kris Verheyen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Haben Blondeel
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Karen De Pauw
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Sanczuk
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Dries Landuyt
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
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88
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Wang Y, Wang B, Chen J, Sun L, Hou Y, Wang Y, Wang J, Gan J, Barmukh R, Li S, Fan Z, Bao P, Cao B, Cai C, Jing X, Singh BK, Varshney RK, Zhao H. Dynamics of rhizosphere microbial structure and function associated with the biennial bearing of moso bamboo. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 351:119977. [PMID: 38160549 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2023] [Revised: 12/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/26/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis) is a valuable nontimber forestry product with a biennial cycle, producing abundant bamboo shoots within one year (on-year) and few shoots within the following year (off-year). Moso bamboo plants undergo clonal reproduction, resulting in similar genetic backgrounds. However, the number of moso bamboo shoots produced each year varies. Despite this variation, the impact of soil nutrients and the root microbiome on the biennial bearing of moso bamboo is poorly understood. We collected 139 soil samples and determined 14 major physicochemical properties of the rhizosphere, rhizoplane, and bulk soil in different seasons (i.e., the growing and deciduous seasons) and different years (i.e., on- and off-years). Based on 16S rRNA and metagenomic sequencing, major variations were found in the rhizospheric microbial composition during different seasons and years in the moso bamboo forest. Environmental driver analysis revealed that essential nutrients (i.e., SOC, TOC, TN, P, and NH4+) were the main drivers of the soil microbial community composition and were correlated with the on- and off-year cycles. Moreover, 19 MAGs were identified as important biomarkers that could distinguish on- and off-years. We found that both season and year influenced both the microbial community structure and functional pathways through the biosynthesis of nutrients that potentially interact with the moso bamboo growth rhythm, especially the on-year root-associated microbiome, which had a greater abundance of specific nutrients such as gibberellins and vitamin B6. This work provides a dynamic perspective of the differential responses of various on- and off-year microbial communities and enhances our understanding of bamboo soil microbiome biodiversity and stability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Wang
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | | | - Jianwei Chen
- BGI Research, Qingdao 266555, China; Laboratory of Genomics and Molecular Biomedicine, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Lei Sun
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Yinguang Hou
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | | | - Jiongliang Wang
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institutes of Biomedicine and Health, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Huangpu District, Guangzhou 510530, China
| | - Junwei Gan
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Rutwik Barmukh
- WA State Agricultural Biotechnology Centre, Centre for Crop and Food Innovation, Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia
| | - Shanying Li
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Zeyu Fan
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Pengfei Bao
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Bingchen Cao
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Chunju Cai
- Changning Bamboo Forest Ecosystem National Research Station, Yibin, Sichuan 644300, China
| | - Xiong Jing
- National Agricultural Exhibition Center/China Agricultural Museum, Beijing 100125, China
| | - Brajesh K Singh
- Global Centre for Land-Based Innovation, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
| | - Rajeev K Varshney
- WA State Agricultural Biotechnology Centre, Centre for Crop and Food Innovation, Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.
| | - Hansheng Zhao
- Institute of Gene Science and Industrialization for Bamboo and Rattan Resources, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311300, China; Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing 100102, China.
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Qi X, Liu S, Wu S, Wang J, Wang J, Zheng C, Wang Y, Liu Y, Luo Q, Li Q, Wang L, Zhao J. Interannual Variations in Terrestrial Net Ecosystem Productivity and Climate Attribution in the Southern Hilly Region of China. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:246. [PMID: 38256799 PMCID: PMC10819449 DOI: 10.3390/plants13020246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2023] [Revised: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 01/11/2024] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
The vegetation ecosystem in the southern hilly region of China (SHRC) plays a crucial role in the country's carbon reservoir. Clarifying the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) in this area and its response to climate factors in the context of climate change is important for national forest ecology, management, and carbon neutrality efforts. This study, based on remote sensing and meteorological data spanning the period 2001 to 2021, aims to unveil the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation productivity and climate factors in the southern hilly region, explore interannual variation characteristics of vegetation productivity with altitude, and investigate the response characteristics of NPP to various climate factors. The results indicate that from 2001 to 2021, the annual average NPP in the southern hilly region had a significant increasing trend of 2.13 ± 0.78 g m-2 a-1. The trend of NPP varies significantly with altitude. Despite a general substantial upward trend in vegetation NPP, regions at lower elevations exhibit a faster rate of increase, suggesting a diminishing difference in the NPP of different elevation ranges. The overall rise in average temperature has positive implications for the southern hilly region, while the impact of precipitation on vegetation NPP demonstrates noticeable spatial heterogeneity. Regions in which vegetation NPP is significantly negatively correlated with precipitation are mainly concentrated in the southern areas of Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi provinces. In contrast, other regions further away from the southeastern coast tend to exhibit a positive correlation. Over the past two decades, there has been an asymmetry in the diurnal temperature variation in the SHRC, with the nighttime warming rate being 1.8 times that of the daytime warming rate. The positive impact of daytime warming on NPP of vegetation is more pronounced than the impact of nighttime temperature changes. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of NPP in the SHRC and the characteristics of its response to climate factors contributes to enhancing our ability to protect and manage vegetation resources amidst the challenges of global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Qi
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Shuhua Liu
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (S.L.); (L.W.)
| | - Shaoan Wu
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Jian Wang
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Jiaming Wang
- College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China;
| | - Chao Zheng
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Yong Wang
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Yang Liu
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Quan Luo
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Qianglong Li
- Changsha Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Changsha 410600, China; (X.Q.); (S.W.); (J.W.); (C.Z.); (Y.W.); (Q.L.)
| | - Liang Wang
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (S.L.); (L.W.)
| | - Jie Zhao
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; (S.L.); (L.W.)
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90
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Hyun J, Yoo G. Modification of the RothC model to evaluate the inconsistent effect of conservation tillage on SOC stock and a suggestion of a national-scale assessment framework. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 907:168010. [PMID: 37871817 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
Simulation of conservation tillage effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock on the national scale is essential for Tier 3 level greenhouse gas inventory in the agricultural sector. However, the conservation tillage effects varied depending on different soil conditions, potentially leading to inaccurate national assessments. This study aimed to propose a framework for estimating the national scale impact of conservation tillage on SOC. As even in the most commonly used SOC dynamic model, the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC), does not reflect the conservation tillage effect in an explicit way, we modified it by developing the tillage rate modifiers (TRMs). First, we investigated the conditions for the inconsistent conservation tillage effects using the decision tree analysis based on 210 field experiment data from the mid-latitude region. The results highlighted that soil sand content and the existing SOC stock were the main factors driving the inconsistencies. After we categorized into four distinctive conditions, the TRMs for each condition were parameterized using a genetic algorithm. The average TRMs were 0.88 in the soils with sand content >37.6 % and 1.58 in the soils with sand content ≤37.6 %, indicating that conservation tillage is more effective in coarse-textured soil, and there is a risk of decreasing SOC stock in the latter condition. Using the modified RothC model, a three-step national-scale simulation framework was suggested: compiling country-specific data, establishing baseline and conservation tillage scenarios, and modeling conservation tillage effects with uncertainty analysis. Our approach also defined the maximum conservation tillage area, factoring in local cropping systems and soil conditions. Our refined RothC model with TRMs provides a nuanced understanding of conservation tillage effects, emphasizing the role of soil characteristics. The proposed national-scale simulation framework offers a reliable tool for evaluating conservation tillage impact on SOC, ensuring more accurate greenhouse gas inventories in agriculture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junge Hyun
- Department of Applied Environmental Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea
| | - Gayoung Yoo
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kyung Hee University, 1732, Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
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91
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Fernandez-Palomino CA, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Vega-Jácome F, Menz C, Gleixner S, Bronstert A. High-resolution climate projection dataset based on CMIP6 for Peru and Ecuador: BASD-CMIP6-PE. Sci Data 2024; 11:34. [PMID: 38182605 PMCID: PMC10770365 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02863-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Here, we present BASD-CMIP6-PE, a high-resolution (1d, 10 km) climate dataset for Peru and Ecuador based on the bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections of 10 GCMs. This dataset includes both historical simulations (1850-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method. The BASD performance was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. Results demonstrated that BASD significantly reduced biases between CMIP6-GCM simulations and observational data, enhancing long-term statistical representations, including mean and extreme values, and seasonal patterns. Furthermore, the hydrological evaluation highlighted the appropriateness of adjusted GCM simulations for simulating streamflow, including mean, low, and high flows. These findings underscore the reliability of BASD-CMIP6-PE in assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Antonio Fernandez-Palomino
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany.
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Fred F Hattermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Valentina Krysanova
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Fiorella Vega-Jácome
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christoph Menz
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephanie Gleixner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Axel Bronstert
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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92
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Zeng H, Zhang W, Lin Q, Gao Y, Teng J, Xu Z, Cai X, Zhong Z, Wu J, Liu Y, Diao S, Wei C, Gong W, Pan X, Li Z, Huang X, Chen X, Du J. PigBiobank: a valuable resource for understanding genetic and biological mechanisms of diverse complex traits in pigs. Nucleic Acids Res 2024; 52:D980-D989. [PMID: 37956339 PMCID: PMC10767803 DOI: 10.1093/nar/gkad1080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Revised: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/15/2023] Open
Abstract
To fully unlock the potential of pigs as both agricultural species for animal-based protein food and biomedical models for human biology and disease, a comprehensive understanding of molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying various complex phenotypes in pigs and how the findings can be translated to other species, especially humans, are urgently needed. Here, within the Farm animal Genotype-Tissue Expression (FarmGTEx) project, we build the PigBiobank (http://pigbiobank.farmgtex.org) to systematically investigate the relationships among genomic variants, regulatory elements, genes, molecular networks, tissues and complex traits in pigs. This first version of the PigBiobank curates 71 885 pigs with both genotypes and phenotypes from over 100 pig breeds worldwide, covering 264 distinct complex traits. The PigBiobank has the following functions: (i) imputed sequence-based genotype-phenotype associations via a standardized and uniform pipeline, (ii) molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying trait-associations via integrating multi-omics data, (iii) cross-species gene mapping of complex traits via transcriptome-wide association studies, and (iv) high-quality results display and visualization. The PigBiobank will be updated timely with the development of the FarmGTEx-PigGTEx project, serving as an open-access and easy-to-use resource for genetically and biologically dissecting complex traits in pigs and translating the findings to other species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haonan Zeng
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Wenjing Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Qing Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Yahui Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Jinyan Teng
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Zhiting Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Xiaodian Cai
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Zhanming Zhong
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Jun Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Yuqiang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Shuqi Diao
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Chen Wei
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Wentao Gong
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Xiangchun Pan
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Zedong Li
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Xiaoyu Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Xifan Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
| | - Jinshi Du
- State Key Laboratory of Swine and Poultry Breeding Industry, National Engineering Research Center for Breeding Swine Industry, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Agro-Animal Genomics and Molecular Breeding, College of Animal Science, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
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Xu J, Zhao P, Chan JCL, Shi M, Yang C, Zhao S, Xu Y, Chen J, Du L, Wu J, Ye J, Xing R, Wang H, Liu L. Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau. Nat Commun 2024; 15:310. [PMID: 38182595 PMCID: PMC10770404 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024] Open
Abstract
The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity across the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been attributed to a warming ocean. However, it is essential to recognize that the tropical WNP region already boasts high temperatures, and a marginal increase in oceanic warmth due to global warming does not exert a significant impact on the potential for TCs to intensify. Here we report that the weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind the escalating trend in TC intensity within the summer monsoon trough of the tropical WNP, while local ocean surface and subsurface thermodynamic factors play a minor role. Through observational diagnoses and numerical simulations, we establish that this weakening of the vertical wind shear is very likely due to the increase in temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. With further warming of the Tibetan Plateau under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the projected TCs will likely become stronger.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Xu
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Ping Zhao
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
- Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China.
| | - Johnny C L Chan
- Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, 201306, China
| | - Mingyuan Shi
- National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Chi Yang
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Siyu Zhao
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Ying Xu
- National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Junming Chen
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Ling Du
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory; and College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
| | - Jie Wu
- Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou, 341000, China
| | - Jiaxin Ye
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Rui Xing
- Meteorological Service in Binhai New Area, Tianjin, 300457, China
| | - Huimei Wang
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Lu Liu
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
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94
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Glückler R, Gloy J, Dietze E, Herzschuh U, Kruse S. Simulating long-term wildfire impacts on boreal forest structure in Central Yakutia, Siberia, since the Last Glacial Maximum. FIRE ECOLOGY 2024; 20:1. [PMID: 38186675 PMCID: PMC10766680 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00238-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
Background Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters. Results Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.), while stand-replacing fires tend to enable the establishment of evergreen conifers. Apart from post-fire mortality, wildfires modulate forest development mainly through competition effects and a reduction of the model's litter layer. Conclusion With its fine-scale population dynamics, LAVESI-FIRE can serve as a highly localized, spatially explicit tool to understand the long-term impacts of boreal wildfires on forest structure and to better constrain interpretations of paleoecological reconstructions of fire activity. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42408-023-00238-8.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramesh Glückler
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, Potsdam, 14476 Germany
- Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Sapporo, 060-0810 Japan
| | - Josias Gloy
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
| | - Elisabeth Dietze
- Institute of Geography, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Goldschmidtstrasse 5, Göttingen, 37077 Germany
| | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, Potsdam, 14476 Germany
- Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, Potsdam, 14476 Germany
| | - Stefan Kruse
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam, 14473 Germany
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95
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Ren S, Wang T, Guenet B, Liu D, Cao Y, Ding J, Smith P, Piao S. Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models. Nat Commun 2024; 15:102. [PMID: 38167278 PMCID: PMC10761705 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44433-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
The soil carbon-climate feedback is currently the least constrained component of global warming projections, and the major source of uncertainties stems from a poor understanding of soil carbon turnover processes. Here, we assemble data from long-term temperature-controlled soil incubation studies to show that the arctic and boreal region has the shortest intrinsic soil carbon turnover time while tropical forests have the longest one, and current Earth system models overestimate intrinsic turnover time by 30 percent across active, slow and passive carbon pools. Our constraint suggests that the global soils will switch from carbon sink to source, with a loss of 0.22-0.53 petagrams of carbon per year until the end of this century from strong mitigation to worst emission scenarios, suggesting that global soils will provide a strong positive carbon feedback on warming. Such a reversal of global soil carbon balance would lead to a reduction of 66% and 15% in the current estimated remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming well below 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, rendering climate mitigation much more difficult.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuai Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Tao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Bertrand Guenet
- Laboratoire de Géologie, École normale supérieure, CNRS, PSL University, IPSL, Paris, France
| | - Dan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yingfang Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jinzhi Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Shilong Piao
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Schepers JR, Heblack J, Willi Y. Negative interaction effect of heat and drought stress at the warm end of species distribution. Oecologia 2024; 204:173-185. [PMID: 38253704 PMCID: PMC10830594 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05497-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 12/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
Geographic range limits of species are often a reflection of their ecological niche limits. In many organisms, important niche limits that coincide with distribution limits are warm and warm-dry conditions. We investigated the effects of heat and drought, as they can occur at the warm end of distribution. In a greenhouse experiment, we raised North American Arabidopsis lyrata from the centre of its distribution as well as from low- and high-latitude limits under average and extreme conditions. We assessed plant growth and development, as well as leaf and root functional traits, and tested for a decline in performance and selection acting on growth, leaf, and root traits. Drought and heat, when applied alone, lowered plant performance, while combined stress caused synergistically negative effects. Plants from high latitudes did not survive under combined stress, whereas plants originating from central and low latitudes had low to moderate survival, indicating divergent adaptation. Traits positively associated with survival under drought, with or without heat, were delayed and slowed growth, though plastic responses in these traits were generally antagonistic to the direction of selection. In line, higher tolerance of stress in southern populations did not involve aspects of growth but rather a higher root-to-shoot ratio and thinner leaves. In conclusion, combined heat and drought, as can occur at southern range edges and presumably more so under global change, seriously impede the long-term persistence of A. lyrata, even though they impose selection and populations may adapt, though under likely interference by considerable maladaptive plasticity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judith R Schepers
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, 4056, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Jessica Heblack
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, 4056, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yvonne Willi
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, 4056, Basel, Switzerland
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97
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Pavlin J, Nagel TA, Svitok M, Di Filippo A, Mikac S, Keren S, Dikku A, Toromani E, Panayotov M, Zlatanov T, Haruta O, Dorog S, Chaskovskyy O, Bače R, Begović K, Buechling A, Dušátko M, Frankovič M, Janda P, Kameniar O, Kozák D, Marchand W, Mikoláš M, Rodrigo R, Svoboda M. Pathways and drivers of canopy accession across primary temperate forests of Europe. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 906:167593. [PMID: 37802334 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/08/2023]
Abstract
Canopy accession strategies reveal much about tree life histories and forest stand dynamics. However, the protracted nature of ascending to the canopy makes direct observation challenging. We use a reconstructive approach based on an extensive tree ring database to study the variability of canopy accession patterns of dominant tree species (Abies alba, Acer pseudoplatanus, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) in temperate mountain forests of Europe and elucidate how disturbance histories, climate, and topography affect canopy accession. All four species exhibited high variability of radial growth histories leading to canopy accession and indicated varying levels of shade tolerance. Individuals of all four species survived at least 100 years of initial suppression. Fir and particularly beech, however, survived longer periods of initial suppression, exhibited more release events, and reached the canopy later on average, with a larger share of trees accessing the canopy after initially suppressed growth. These results indicate the superior shade tolerance of beech and fir compared to spruce and maple. The two less shade-tolerant species conversely relied on faster growth rates, revealing their competitive advantage in non-suppressed conditions. Additionally, spruce from higher-elevation spruce-dominated forests survived shorter periods of initial shading and exhibited fewer releases, with a larger share of trees reaching the canopy after open canopy recruitment (i.e. in absence of suppression) and no subsequent releases compared to spruce growing in lower-elevation mixed forests. Finally, disturbance factors were identified as the primary driver of canopy accession, whereby disturbances accelerate canopy accession and consequently regulate competitive interactions. Intensifying disturbance regimes could thus promote shifts in species composition, particularly in favour of faster-growing, more light-demanding species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakob Pavlin
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Thomas A Nagel
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic; Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Večna pot 83, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Marek Svitok
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic; Department of Biology and General Ecology, Faculty of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Technical University in Zvolen, Masaryka 24, 96053 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Alfredo Di Filippo
- Department of Agriculture and Forest Sciences (DAFNE), University of Tuscia, Via SC de Lellis, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Stjepan Mikac
- Department of Forest Ecology and Silviculture, Faculty of Forestry, University of Zagreb, Svetošimunska cesta 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Srdjan Keren
- Faculty of Forestry, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. 29 Listopada 46, 31-425 Kraków, Poland
| | | | - Elvin Toromani
- Faculty of Forestry Sciences, Agricultural University of Tirana, 1029 Koder-Kamez, Albania
| | - Momchil Panayotov
- Department of Dendrology, University of Forestry Sofia, Kliment Ohridski 10 Blvd., 1797 Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Tzvetan Zlatanov
- Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Gagarin Street 2, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Ovidiu Haruta
- Forestry and Forest Engineering Department, University of Oradea, Oradea, Romania
| | - Sorin Dorog
- Forestry and Forest Engineering Department, University of Oradea, Oradea, Romania
| | - Oleh Chaskovskyy
- Institute of Forest Management, Ukrainian National Forestry University, Vul. Henerala Chuprynky 103, 79031 Lviv, Ukraine
| | - Radek Bače
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Krešimir Begović
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Arne Buechling
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Martin Dušátko
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Michal Frankovič
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Pavel Janda
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Ondrej Kameniar
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Daniel Kozák
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - William Marchand
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Martin Mikoláš
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Ruffy Rodrigo
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Department of Forest Ecology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcka 129, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
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98
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Gong H, Zhang M, Xiang X, Liu H. 1 km monthly precipitation and temperatures dataset for China from 1952 to 2019 based on new baseline climatology surfaces. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 906:167613. [PMID: 37813268 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Revised: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Long-term climate data and high-quality baseline climatology surface with high resolution are essential to investigate climate change and its effect on hydrological processes and ecosystem functioning. However, large uncertainties remain in the climate products in China owing to lacking of high-density distribution network of weather stations. Here, the thin plate spline (TPS) algorithm was used to produce new baseline climatology surfaces (ChinaClim_baseline) using >2000 freely available weather stations. Then, climatologically aided interpolation (CAI) was employed to generate a 1 km monthly precipitation and temperatures dataset for China during 1952-2019 (ChinaClim_time-series) via superimposing ChinaClim_baseline and monthly anomaly surface. Our finding showed that ChinaClim_baseline performed exceptionally well in four climatic regions, with RMSEs for precipitation and temperature element estimation of 1.276-28.439 mm and 0.310-2.040 °C, respectively. The correlations among ChinaClim_baseline and WorldClim2 and CHELSA were high, but there were clearly spatial differences. For ChinaClim_time-series, precipitation and temperature elements had average RMSEs between 7.502- 52.307 mm, and 0.461-0.939 °C for all months, respectively. In comparison to Peng's climatic surface and CHELSAcruts, R2 increased by ~7 %, RMSE and MAE dropped by ~17 % for precipitation; R2 hardly increased, while RMSE and MAE decreased by ~50 % for temperature elements. Our findings indicated that ChinaClim_baseline improved the accuracy of time-series climatic elements estimation obviously, and the satellite-driven data can greatly improve the accuracy of time-series precipitation estimation, but not the accuracy of time-series temperature estimation. Overall, ChinaClim_baseline as an excellent baseline climatology surface can be used for obtaining high-quality and long-term climate datasets from past to future. Meantime, ChinaClim_time-series of 1 km spatial resolution is appropriate for investigating the spatial-temporal climate changes and their impacts on eco-environmental systems in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haibo Gong
- Key Laboratory of Agro-Ecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha 410125, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Mingyang Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Agro-Ecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha 410125, China; Huanjiang Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Huanjiang, Hechi 547100, China.
| | - Xueqiao Xiang
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Huiyu Liu
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.
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99
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Wang P, Huang Q, Liu S, Liu Y, Li Z, Pozdniakov SP, Wang T, Kazak ES, Frolova NL, Gabysheva OI, Zhang J, Bai B, Yu J, Min L, Shpakova RN, Hao L, Gabyshev VA. Climate warming enhances chemical weathering in permafrost-dominated eastern Siberia. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 906:167367. [PMID: 37774887 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Revised: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the impacts of climate warming on hydrogeochemical processes, particularly in areas dominated by permafrost, is crucial. However, the natural background levels of chemical components in eastern Siberian rivers from permafrost-dominated regions and their responses to climate warming have not been adequately quantified. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by using a comprehensive river water chemistry database (n = 1264) spanning from 1940 to 2019. Our results reveal that the concentration of total dissolved solids (TDS), a key parameter of drinking water quality, in river basins predominantly free of permafrost (194.6 ± 256.4 mg/L) is approximately 2.3 times higher than in permafrost-dominated river basins (83.7 ± 35.8 mg/L) in eastern Siberia. These observations imply potential shifts in freshwater quality resulting from permafrost degradation. We further detect that carbonate weathering, which plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle, is a predominant process controlling hydrogeochemical cycles. (Ca2+ + Mg2+) concentrations as a proxy for carbonate weathering intensity are sensitive to climate warming, increasing at a rate of 0.10 mmol/(L·°C). This finding provides evidence that the current acceleration of carbonate weathering, driven by climate warming, is already influencing local water quality. Additionally, (Ca2+ + Mg2+) concentrations and TDS are highly interrelated with temperature-dependent variables (e.g., active layer thickness of permafrost and leaf area index) and basin erosion-controlling factors (e.g., precipitation, elevation and slope of basin). Under a warming climate, river chemical fluxes (e.g., export of TDS and major ions) increase notably, especially during the winter, indicating an increase in mineral-laden groundwater discharge to rivers due to permafrost degradation. Our results demonstrate that climate warming is accelerating hydrogeochemical processes in permafrost-dominated Arctic basins.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ping Wang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Qiwei Huang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Shiqi Liu
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Yu Liu
- Linköping University - Guangzhou University Research Center on Urban Sustainable Development, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Zehong Li
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Sergey P Pozdniakov
- Department of Hydrogeology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119899, Russia
| | - Tianye Wang
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, 100 Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, Henan 450001, China
| | - Ekaterina S Kazak
- Department of Hydrogeology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119899, Russia
| | - Natalia L Frolova
- Department of Land Hydrology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119991, Russia
| | - Olga I Gabysheva
- Institute for Biological Problems of Cryolithozone, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yakutsk 677980, Russia
| | - Jialing Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Bing Bai
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Jingjie Yu
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Leilei Min
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory for Water-Saving Agriculture, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
| | - Raisa N Shpakova
- Regional Governance and National Policy Department, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, 76, Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow 119454, Russia
| | - Lingang Hao
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Viktor A Gabyshev
- Institute for Biological Problems of Cryolithozone, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yakutsk 677980, Russia
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100
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Wang J, Shen Y, Awange JL, Yang L. A deep learning model for reconstructing centenary water storage changes in the Yangtze River Basin. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 905:167030. [PMID: 37704127 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Revised: 08/24/2023] [Accepted: 09/10/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-On mission (GRACE-FO) have facilitated highly accurate observations of changes in total water storage anomalies (TWSA). However, limited observations of TWSA derived from GRACE in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) have hindered our understanding of its long-term variability. In this paper, we present a deep learning model called RecNet to reconstruct the climate-driven TWSA in the YRB from 1923 to 2022. The RecNet model is trained on precipitation, temperature, and GRACE observations with a weighted mean square error (WMSE) loss function. The performance of the RecNet model is validated and compared against GRACE data, water budget estimates, hydrological models, drought indices, and existing reconstruction datasets. The results indicate that the RecNet model can successfully reconstruct historical water storage changes, surpassing the performance of previous studies. In addition, the reconstructed datasets are utilized to assess the frequency of extreme hydrological conditions and their teleconnections with major climate patterns, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Independent component analysis is employed to investigate individual climate patterns' unique or combined influence on TWSA. We show that the YRB exhibits a notable vulnerability to extreme events, characterized by a recurrent occurrence of diverse extreme dry/wet conditions throughout the past century. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals significant coherence between the climate patterns and TWSA across the entire basin. The reconstructed datasets provide valuable information for studying long-term climate variability and projecting future droughts and floods in the YRB, which can inform effective water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jielong Wang
- College of Surveying and Geo-informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, PR China
| | - Yunzhong Shen
- College of Surveying and Geo-informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, PR China.
| | - Joseph L Awange
- School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Spatial Sciences Discipline, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Ling Yang
- College of Surveying and Geo-informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, PR China
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