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Arbatli CE, Ashraf QH, Galor O, Klemp M. Diversity and Conflict. ECONOMETRICA : JOURNAL OF THE ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY 2020; 88:727-797. [PMID: 36071951 PMCID: PMC9447842 DOI: 10.3982/ecta13734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity, rather than fractionalization or polarization across ethnic groups, has been pivotal to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, the study demonstrates that population diversity, and its impact on the degree of diversity within ethnic groups, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary civil conflicts. The findings arguably reflect the contribution of population diversity to the non-cohesivnesss of society, as reflected partly in the prevalence of mistrust, the divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cemal Eren Arbatli
- Faculty of Economic Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Street, 101000, Moscow, Russia
| | - Quamrul H Ashraf
- Department of Economics, Williams College, Schapiro Hall, 24 Hopkins Hall Drive, Williamstown, MA 01267
| | - Oded Galor
- Department of Economics, Brown University, Robinson Hall, 64 Waterman Street, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Marc Klemp
- Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark
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52
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van Bavel BJP, Curtis DR, Hannaford MJ, Moatsos M, Roosen J, Soens T. Climate and society in long-term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS. CLIMATE CHANGE 2019; 10:e611. [PMID: 31762795 PMCID: PMC6852122 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2019] [Revised: 06/27/2019] [Accepted: 07/05/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long-term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge. We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies on the link between climate and (a) conflict incidence, (b) plague outbreaks and (c) agricultural productivity changes. We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality. This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long-term relationship between climate and society. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniel R. Curtis
- Erasmus School of History, Culture and CommunicationErasmus University RotterdamRotterdamNetherlands
| | | | - Michail Moatsos
- Department of History and Art HistoryUtrecht UniversityUtrechtNetherlands
| | - Joris Roosen
- Department of History and Art HistoryUtrecht UniversityUtrechtNetherlands
| | - Tim Soens
- Department of HistoryUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium
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53
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Bayar M, Aral MM. An Analysis of Large-Scale Forced Migration in Africa. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E4210. [PMID: 31671615 PMCID: PMC6861999 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16214210] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2019] [Revised: 10/25/2019] [Accepted: 10/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
In this paper, human security-related causes of large-scale forced migration (LSFM) in Africa are investigated for the period 2011-2017. As distinct from the conventional understanding of (national) security, human security involves economic, public health, environmental and other aspects of people's wellbeing. Testing various hypotheses, we have found that civil and interstate conflicts, lack of democracy and poverty are the most important drivers of mass population displacements, whereas climate change has an indirect effect on the dependent variable. As a policy tool, foreign aid is also tested to see if it lowers the probability of LSFM. Our findings have implications for policy planning, since the conventional understanding of security falls short of addressing LSFM without taking various aspects of human security into account.
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Affiliation(s)
- Murat Bayar
- Institute for Eastern and African Studies, Social Sciences University of Ankara, Ankara 06030, Turkey.
| | - Mustafa M Aral
- Department of Civil Engineering, Bartin University, Bartin 74100, Turkey.
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54
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Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Maystadt JF, O'Loughlin J, Roessler P, Scheffran J, Schultz KA, von Uexkull N. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 2019; 571:193-197. [PMID: 31189956 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1,300-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2019] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharine J Mach
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Caroline M Kraan
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - W Neil Adger
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Halvard Buhaug
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Marshall Burke
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - James D Fearon
- Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Christopher B Field
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Cullen S Hendrix
- Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA
- Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Jean-Francois Maystadt
- Institute of Development Policy (IOB), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
- Department of Economics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - John O'Loughlin
- Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Philip Roessler
- Department of Government, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA
| | - Jürgen Scheffran
- Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Kenneth A Schultz
- Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Nina von Uexkull
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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55
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Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Maystadt JF, O'Loughlin J, Roessler P, Scheffran J, Schultz KA, von Uexkull N. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 2019; 571:193-197. [PMID: 31189956 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharine J Mach
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Caroline M Kraan
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - W Neil Adger
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Halvard Buhaug
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway.,Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Marshall Burke
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.,National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - James D Fearon
- Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Christopher B Field
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Cullen S Hendrix
- Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA.,Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Jean-Francois Maystadt
- Institute of Development Policy (IOB), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.,Department of Economics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - John O'Loughlin
- Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Philip Roessler
- Department of Government, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA
| | - Jürgen Scheffran
- Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Kenneth A Schultz
- Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Nina von Uexkull
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway.,Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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56
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Godsmark CN, Irlam J, van der Merwe F, New M, Rother HA. Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2019; 122:31-51. [PMID: 30573189 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.11.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2018] [Revised: 10/26/2018] [Accepted: 11/14/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study. METHODS A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts. RESULTS Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy. CONCLUSIONS Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a "health and climate change in all policies" approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christie Nicole Godsmark
- Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa
| | - James Irlam
- Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa; Primary Health Care Directorate, University of Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Frances van der Merwe
- Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, Western Cape Government, South Africa
| | - Mark New
- African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Hanna-Andrea Rother
- Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
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57
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Harp RD, Karnauskas KB. The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States. GEOHEALTH 2018; 2:356-369. [PMID: 32159007 PMCID: PMC7007136 DOI: 10.1029/2018gh000152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2018] [Revised: 10/19/2018] [Accepted: 10/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
While the impact of climate on regional geopolitical stability and large-scale conflict has garnered increased visibility in recent years, the effects of climate variability on interpersonal violent crime have received only limited scientific attention. Though earlier studies have established a modest correlation between temperature and violent crime, the underlying seasonality in both variables was often not controlled for and spatial heterogeneity of the statistical relationships has largely been overlooked. Here a method of spatial aggregation is applied to the United States, enabling a systematic investigation into the observed relationships between large-scale climate variability and regionally aggregated crime rates. This novel approach allows for differentiation between the effects of two previously proposed mechanisms linking climate and violent crime, the Routine Activities Theory and Temperature-Aggression Hypothesis. Results indicate large and statistically significant positive correlations between the interannual variability of wintertime air temperature and both violent and property crime rates, with negligible correlations emerging from summertime data. Results strongly support the Routine Activities Theory linking climate and violent crime, with climate variability explaining well over a third of the variance of wintertime violent crime in several broad regions of the United States. Finally, results motivate the development of observationally constrained empirical models and their potential application to seasonal and potentially longer-term forecasts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan D. Harp
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - Kristopher B. Karnauskas
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- Department of Environmental and Occupational HealthColorado School of Public HealthAuroraCOUSA
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58
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Walch C. Disaster risk reduction amidst armed conflict: informal institutions, rebel groups, and wartime political orders. DISASTERS 2018; 42 Suppl 2:S239-S264. [PMID: 30113712 DOI: 10.1111/disa.12309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Extant research has explored the effect of natural hazards on the risk of armed conflict, but very few studies have examined how conflict dynamics affect disaster risk reduction (DRR), including climate change adaptation. This is surprising given the empirical evidence that indicates how often disasters and armed conflicts collide. To understand better the impact of armed conflict on DRR, this paper develops a conceptual typology that is based on rebel groups' territorial control and on the strength of informal institutions. It documents three main political orders amid conflict: rebel stability; informal stability; and fragmented landscape. These wartime political orders will have different effects on DRR and other development programmes, revealing the importance of desegregating armed conflict to facilitate tailor-made and more efficient interventions. The paper provides empirical evidence from Mali and the Philippines that illustrates the influence of these wartime political orders on DRR programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin Walch
- Post-doctoral Researcher, University of California, Berkeley, United States, and Assistant Professor, Uppsala University, Sweden
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59
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Peters K. Disasters, climate change, and securitisation: the United Nations Security Council and the United Kingdom's security policy. DISASTERS 2018; 42 Suppl 2:S196-S214. [PMID: 30113710 DOI: 10.1111/disa.12307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Since climate change was included on the United Nations Security Council's agenda in 2007, there has been much debate about whether or not it has been securitised. This paper starts from the premise that climate change has undergone a partial securitisation-that is, a gradual process wherein political choices are made to frame certain issues in particular ways. Climate change has been reframed from a purely developmental and environmental concern to one that impels foreign policy and security domains. This paper makes a novel contribution to disasters, climate change, and security studies by arguing that explicit and implicit links to natural hazard-related disasters have been employed as part of a gradual process of securitisation, or, more specifically, the partial securitisation of climate change. This is demonstrated by drawing on two cases: United Nations Security Council debates between 2007 and 2017; and the United Kingdom's security policy between 1997 and 2017.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie Peters
- Senior Research Fellow, Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom
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60
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Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa is home to several of the world’s least developed economies. Additionally, forty percent of the nearly one billion people in this region lack access to basic electricity. There are several initiatives and programs aimed at increasing electricity access, clean cooking fuel, and renewable energy around the world. Economic development efforts have traditionally relied on increasing an economy’s use of fossil fuels. However, global climate change agreements and mitigation efforts are in direct contrast with this approach. As such, future development efforts must fit into the larger energy–population–climate nexus of global sustainability. Here we utilise a quantitative approach to examine three scenarios for development in sub-Saharan Africa and compare the results to nine historical examples of economic development. While no perfect development analogue was found, there are several lessons that can be learned from the last half century of efforts. We find that UN projected population growth in the region is expected to outpace non-renewable energy availability. The population of sub-Saharan Africa, and subsequent projected growth (4 billion by 2100), will represent a significant energy and climate strain on the 21st century world. In a larger sense, the social and economic development of sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be tied to an increase in per capita energy consumption. This increase is not going to come from traditional fossil fuels and will therefore require significant investment in a renewable energy infrastructure.
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Wagner Z, Heft-Neal S, Bhutta ZA, Black RE, Burke M, Bendavid E. Armed conflict and child mortality in Africa: a geospatial analysis. Lancet 2018; 392:857-865. [PMID: 30173907 PMCID: PMC6338336 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31437-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2018] [Revised: 06/02/2018] [Accepted: 06/20/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A substantial portion of child deaths in Africa take place in countries with recent history of armed conflict and political instability. However, the extent to which armed conflict is an important cause of child mortality, especially in Africa, remains unknown. METHODS We matched child survival with proximity to armed conflict using information in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset on the location and intensity of armed conflict from 1995 to 2015 together with the location, timing, and survival of infants younger than 1 year (primary outcome) in 35 African countries. We measured the increase in mortality risk for infants exposed to armed conflicts within 50 km in the year of birth and, to study conflicts' extended health risks, up to 250 km away and 10 years before birth. We also examined the effects of conflicts of varying intensity and chronicity (conflicts lasting several years), and effect heterogeneity by residence and sex of the child. We then estimated the number and portion of deaths of infants younger than 1 year related to conflict. FINDINGS We identified 15 441 armed conflict events that led to 968 444 combat-related deaths and matched these data with 1·99 million births and 133 361 infant deaths (infant mortality of 67 deaths per 1000 births) between 1995 and 2015. A child born within 50 km of an armed conflict had a risk of dying before reaching age 1 year of 5·2 per 1000 births higher than being born in the same region during periods without conflict (95% CI 3·7-6·7; a 7·7% increase above baseline). This increased risk of dying ranged from a 3·0% increase for armed conflicts with one to four deaths to a 26·7% increase for armed conflicts with more than 1000 deaths. We find evidence of increased mortality risk from an armed conflict up to 100 km away, and for 8 years after conflicts, with cumulative increase in infant mortality two to four times higher than the contemporaneous increase. In the entire continent, the number of infant deaths related to conflict from 1995 to 2015 was between 3·2 and 3·6 times the number of direct deaths from armed conflicts. INTERPRETATION Armed conflict substantially and persistently increases infant mortality in Africa, with effect sizes on a scale with malnutrition and several times greater than existing estimates of the mortality burden of conflict. The toll of conflict on children, who are presumably not combatants, underscores the indirect toll of conflict on civilian populations, and the importance of developing interventions to address child health in areas of conflict. FUNDING The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, and the Centre for Global Child Health at the Hospital for Sick Children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary Wagner
- Center for Population Health Sciences, Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Sam Heft-Neal
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada; Center of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Robert E Black
- Institute for International Programs, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Marshall Burke
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Eran Bendavid
- Center for Population Health Sciences, Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
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Farinosi F, Giupponi C, Reynaud A, Ceccherini G, Carmona-Moreno C, De Roo A, Gonzalez-Sanchez D, Bidoglio G. An innovative approach to the assessment of hydro-political risk: A spatially explicit, data driven indicator of hydro-political issues. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE : HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 2018; 52:286-313. [PMID: 30679888 PMCID: PMC6333297 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2018] [Revised: 06/27/2018] [Accepted: 07/01/2018] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Competition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the coming decades. Although water issues alone have not been the sole trigger for warfare in the past, tensions over freshwater management and use represent one of the main concerns in political relations between riparian states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability and social unrest. Previous studies made great efforts to understand how international water management problems were addressed by actors in a more cooperative or confrontational way. In this study, we analyze what are the pre-conditions favoring the insurgence of water management issues in shared water bodies, rather than focusing on the way water issues are then managed among actors. We do so by proposing an innovative analysis of past episodes of conflict and cooperation over transboundary water resources (jointly defined as "hydro-political interactions"). On the one hand, we aim at highlighting the factors that are more relevant in determining water interactions across political boundaries. On the other hand, our objective is to map and monitor the evolution of the likelihood of experiencing hydro-political interactions over space and time, under changing socioeconomic and biophysical scenarios, through a spatially explicit data driven index. Historical cross-border water interactions were used as indicators of the magnitude of corresponding water joint-management issues. These were correlated with information about river basin freshwater availability, climate stress, human pressure on water resources, socioeconomic conditions (including institutional development and power imbalances), and topographic characteristics. This analysis allows for identification of the main factors that determine water interactions, such as water availability, population density, power imbalances, and climatic stressors. The proposed model was used to map at high spatial resolution the probability of experiencing hydro-political interactions worldwide. This baseline outline is then compared to four distinct climate and population density projections aimed to estimate trends for hydro-political interactions under future conditions (2050 and 2100), while considering two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (moderate and extreme climate change). The combination of climate and population growth dynamics is expected to impact negatively on the overall hydro-political risk by increasing the likelihood of water interactions in the transboundary river basins, with an average increase ranging between 74.9% (2050 - population and moderate climate change) to 95% (2100 - population and extreme climate change). Future demographic and climatic conditions are expected to exert particular pressure on already water stressed basins such as the Nile, the Ganges/Brahmaputra, the Indus, the Tigris/Euphrates, and the Colorado. The results of this work allow us to identify current and future areas where water issues are more likely to arise, and where cooperation over water should be actively pursued to avoid possible tensions especially under changing environmental conditions. From a policy perspective, the index presented in this study can be used to provide a sound quantitative basis to the assessment of the Sustainable Development Goal 6, Target 6.5 "Water resources management", and in particular to indicator 6.5.2 "Transboundary cooperation".
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Affiliation(s)
- F. Farinosi
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - C. Giupponi
- Department of Economics, Venice Centre for Climate Studies (VICCS), Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
| | - A. Reynaud
- Toulouse School of Economics - National Institute for Research in Agriculture (INRA) – University of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France
| | - G. Ceccherini
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | | | - A. De Roo
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | | | - G. Bidoglio
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
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63
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Younan D, Li L, Tuvblad C, Wu J, Lurmann F, Franklin M, Berhane K, McConnell R, Wu AH, Baker LA, Chen JC. Long-Term Ambient Temperature and Externalizing Behaviors in Adolescents. Am J Epidemiol 2018; 187:1931-1941. [PMID: 29788079 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2017] [Accepted: 04/30/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The climate-violence relationship has been debated for decades, and yet most of the supportive evidence has come from ecological or cross-sectional analyses with very limited long-term exposure data. We conducted an individual-level, longitudinal study to investigate the association between ambient temperature and externalizing behaviors of urban-dwelling adolescents. Participants (n = 1,287) in the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Study, in California, were examined during 2000-2012 (aged 9-18 years) with repeated assessments of their externalizing behaviors (e.g., aggression, delinquency). Ambient temperature data were obtained from the local meteorological information system. In adjusted multilevel models, aggressive behaviors significantly increased with rising average temperatures (per 1°C increment) in the preceding 1, 2, or 3 years (respectively, β = 0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.00, 0.46; β = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.63; or β = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.74), equivalent to 1.5-3.0 years of delay in age-related behavioral maturation. These associations were slightly stronger among girls and families of lower socioeconomic status but greatly diminished in neighborhoods with more green space. No significant associations were found with delinquency. Our study provides the first individual-level epidemiologic evidence supporting the adverse association of long-term ambient temperature and aggression. Similar approaches to studying meteorology and violent crime might further inform scientific debates on climate change and collective violence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Younan
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Lianfa Li
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Catherine Tuvblad
- Department of Psychology, University of Southern California Dana and David Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, Los Angeles, California
- School of Law, Psychology and Social Work, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Jun Wu
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California
| | | | - Meredith Franklin
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Kiros Berhane
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Rob McConnell
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Anna H Wu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Laura A Baker
- Department of Psychology, University of Southern California Dana and David Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, Los Angeles, California
| | - Jiu-Chiuan Chen
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
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64
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Fragile States Metric System: An Assessment Model Considering Climate Change. SUSTAINABILITY 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/su10061767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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65
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Hanson T. Biodiversity conservation and armed conflict: a warfare ecology perspective. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2018; 1429:50-65. [DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2017] [Revised: 02/18/2018] [Accepted: 02/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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66
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Missirian A, Schlenker W. Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations. Science 2018; 358:1610-1614. [PMID: 29269476 DOI: 10.1126/science.aao0432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2017] [Accepted: 11/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurges in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration-in particular, across national borders. Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000-2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351,000 per year in our sample. We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming. Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28% (98,000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5 and by 188% (660,000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP).
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Affiliation(s)
- Anouch Missirian
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Wolfram Schlenker
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.,The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.,National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
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67
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Climate, aggression, and violence (CLASH): a cultural-evolutionary approach. Curr Opin Psychol 2018; 19:113-118. [DOI: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2017.04.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2017] [Accepted: 04/12/2017] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
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68
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Carleton WC, Campbell D, Collard M. Radiocarbon dating uncertainty and the reliability of the PEWMA method of time-series analysis for research on long-term human-environment interaction. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0191055. [PMID: 29351329 PMCID: PMC5774753 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2017] [Accepted: 12/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Statistical time-series analysis has the potential to improve our understanding of human-environment interaction in deep time. However, radiocarbon dating—the most common chronometric technique in archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research—creates challenges for established statistical methods. The methods assume that observations in a time-series are precisely dated, but this assumption is often violated when calibrated radiocarbon dates are used because they usually have highly irregular uncertainties. As a result, it is unclear whether the methods can be reliably used on radiocarbon-dated time-series. With this in mind, we conducted a large simulation study to investigate the impact of chronological uncertainty on a potentially useful time-series method. The method is a type of regression involving a prediction algorithm called the Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEMWA). It is designed for use with count time-series data, which makes it applicable to a wide range of questions about human-environment interaction in deep time. Our simulations suggest that the PEWMA method can often correctly identify relationships between time-series despite chronological uncertainty. When two time-series are correlated with a coefficient of 0.25, the method is able to identify that relationship correctly 20–30% of the time, providing the time-series contain low noise levels. With correlations of around 0.5, it is capable of correctly identifying correlations despite chronological uncertainty more than 90% of the time. While further testing is desirable, these findings indicate that the method can be used to test hypotheses about long-term human-environment interaction with a reasonable degree of confidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- W. Christopher Carleton
- Department of Archaeology, Simon Fraser University,University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - David Campbell
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University,University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mark Collard
- Department of Archaeology, Simon Fraser University,University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- * E-mail:
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69
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Daskin JH, Pringle RM. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa’s protected areas. Nature 2018; 553:328-332. [DOI: 10.1038/nature25194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2016] [Accepted: 12/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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70
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Hollis S. Bridging international relations and disaster studies: the case of disaster-conflict scholarship. DISASTERS 2018; 42:19-40. [PMID: 28452162 DOI: 10.1111/disa.12231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
International relations and disaster studies have much to gain by thinking critically about their respective theoretical and epistemological assumptions. Yet, few studies to date have sought to assess the potential value of linking these two disciplines. This paper begins to address this shortfall by examining the relationship between disasters and conflict as a research sphere that intersects international relations and disaster studies. Through an analysis of whether or not disasters contribute to intra-national and international conflict, this paper not only provides a review of the state of the art, but also serves to invite scholars to reflect on related concepts from other fields to strengthen their own approaches to the study of disasters in an international setting. An evaluation of the conceptual and theoretical contributions of each subject area provides useful heuristics for the development of disaster-conflict scholarship and encourages alternative modes of knowledge production through interdisciplinarity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon Hollis
- Assistant Professor, Centre for Crisis Management Research and Training (CRISMART), Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership, Swedish Defence University, Sweden
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71
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Hu X, Wu J, Chen P, Sun T, Li D. Impact of climate variability and change on crime rates in Tangshan, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2017; 609:1041-1048. [PMID: 28787778 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2017] [Revised: 07/18/2017] [Accepted: 07/18/2017] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Studies examining the relation between climate and human conflict often focus on the role of temperature and have diverging views on the significance of other climatic variables. Using a 6-year (from 2009 to 2014) dataset of crime statistics collected in a medium size city of Tangshan in China, we find strong, positive correlations between temperature and both violent and property crimes. In addition, relative humidity is also positively correlated with Rape and Minimal Violent Robbery (MVR). The seasonal cycle is a significant factor that induces good correlations between crime rates and climatic variables, which can be reasonably explained by the Routine Activity theory. We also show that the combined impacts of temperature and relative humidity on crime rates can be reasonably captured by traditional heat stress indices. Using an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate change simulations, we estimate that at the end of the 21st century the rates of Rape (violent crime) and MVR (property crime) in Tangshan will increase by 9.5±5.3% and 2.6±2.1%, respectively, under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). The gross domestic product (GDP) is also shown to be significantly correlated with MVR rates and the regression results are strongly impacted by whether GDP is considered or not.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaofeng Hu
- School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China.
| | - Jiansong Wu
- Department of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing, China
| | - Peng Chen
- School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Ting Sun
- Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Dan Li
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
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72
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Barth M, Masson T, Fritsche I, Ziemer CT. Closing ranks: Ingroup norm conformity as a subtle response to threatening climate change. GROUP PROCESSES & INTERGROUP RELATIONS 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/1368430217733119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
We tested the hypothesis that climate change threat increases group-based cognition and action tendencies. As ingroups can provide extended primary control, we expected climate change threat to increase conformity with ingroup norms and group protective behavior. In three studies ( N = 404), we experimentally manipulated climate change threat (Studies 1–3) and group norm content (Studies 2 and 3). We found that participants under climate change threat more strongly derogated group members who acted against the group’s interests (Study 1). When a specific group norm was made salient, both manipulated (Study 3) and perceived climate change threat (Studies 2 and 3) increased ingroup norm conformity. Importantly, this effect occurred for norms of radical left-wing behavior. This suggests that climate change threat does not necessarily induce a conservative shift. Instead, it elicits group-based defenses whose expression depends on which ingroup and which of its norms are salient.
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73
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The Dominance of Food Supply in Changing Demographic Factors across Africa: A Model Using a Systems Identification Approach. SOCIAL SCIENCES 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/socsci6040122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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74
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Corry O. The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change. SECURITY DIALOGUE 2017; 48:297-315. [PMID: 29386754 PMCID: PMC5753843 DOI: 10.1177/0967010617704142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a 'Plan B' in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the 'security hazard' and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for 'Plan A', i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olaf Corry
- Olaf Corry, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5 DK-1353 Copenhagen K.
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75
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Ng HKS, Chow TS. The effects of environmental resource and security on aggressive behavior. Aggress Behav 2017; 43:304-314. [PMID: 27859336 DOI: 10.1002/ab.21690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2016] [Revised: 10/06/2016] [Accepted: 10/13/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Exposure to different environments has been reported to change aggressive behavior, but previous research did not consider the underlying elements that caused such an effect. Based on previous work on environmental perception, we examined the role of environmental resource and security in altering aggression level. In three experiments, participants were exposed to environments that varied in resource (High vs. Low) and security (High vs. Low) levels, after which aggression was measured. The environments were presented through visual priming (Experiments 1-2) and a first-person gameplay (Experiment 3). We observed a consistent resource-security interaction effect on aggression, operationalized as the level of noise blast (Experiment 1) and number of unpleasant pictures (Experiments 2-3) delivered to strangers by the participants. High resource levels associated with higher aggression in insecure conditions, but lower aggression in secure conditions. The findings suggest that the adaptive value of aggression varies under different environmental constraints. Implications are discussed in terms of the effects of adverse environments on aggression, and the nature's effects on social behavior. Aggr. Behav. 43:304-314, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tak Sang Chow
- Department of Counselling and Psychology; Hong Kong Shue Yan University; Hong Kong
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76
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Nawrotzki RJ, Bakhtsiyarava M. International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway. POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE 2017; 23:e2033. [PMID: 28943813 PMCID: PMC5608457 DOI: 10.1002/psp.2033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphael J Nawrotzki
- University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A
| | - Maryia Bakhtsiyarava
- University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A.,
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77
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Abstract
Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and
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Affiliation(s)
- Barry S Levy
- School of Medicine, Tufts University, Sherborn, Massachusetts 01770;
| | - Victor W Sidel
- Department of Medicine and Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY 10021;
| | - Jonathan A Patz
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53726;
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78
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Myers SS, Smith MR, Guth S, Golden CD, Vaitla B, Mueller ND, Dangour AD, Huybers P. Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition. Annu Rev Public Health 2017; 38:259-277. [PMID: 28125383 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 263] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel S Myers
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , , .,Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;
| | - Matthew R Smith
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , ,
| | - Sarah Guth
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;
| | - Christopher D Golden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , , .,Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;
| | - Bapu Vaitla
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , ,
| | - Nathaniel D Mueller
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; , .,Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138
| | - Alan D Dangour
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;
| | - Peter Huybers
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; .,Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; ,
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79
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Motesharrei S, Rivas J, Kalnay E, Asrar GR, Busalacchi AJ, Cahalan RF, Cane MA, Colwell RR, Feng K, Franklin RS, Hubacek K, Miralles-Wilhelm F, Miyoshi T, Ruth M, Sagdeev R, Shirmohammadi A, Shukla J, Srebric J, Yakovenko VM, Zeng N. Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems. Natl Sci Rev 2016; 3:470-494. [PMID: 32747868 PMCID: PMC7398446 DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nww081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as UN population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jorge Rivas
- Institute for Global Environment and Society
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80
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von Uexkull N, Croicu M, Fjelde H, Buhaug H. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2016; 113:12391-12396. [PMID: 27791091 PMCID: PMC5098672 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1607542113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 252] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nina von Uexkull
- Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden;
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway
| | - Mihai Croicu
- Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Hanne Fjelde
- Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway
| | - Halvard Buhaug
- Peace Research Institute Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway
- Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
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81
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Schlüter M, Tavoni A, Levin S. Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:rspb.2015.2431. [PMID: 26740611 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Sustainable use of common-pool resources such as fish, water or forests depends on the cooperation of resource users that restrain their individual extraction to socially optimal levels. Empirical evidence has shown that under certain social and biophysical conditions, self-organized cooperation in the commons can evolve. Global change, however, may drastically alter these conditions. We assess the robustness of cooperation to environmental variability in a stylized model of a community that harvests a shared resource. Community members follow a norm of socially optimal resource extraction, which is enforced through social sanctioning. Our results indicate that both resource abundance and a small increase in resource variability can lead to collapse of cooperation observed in the no-variability case, while either scarcity or large variability have the potential to stabilize it. The combined effects of changes in amount and variability can reinforce or counteract each other depending on their size and the initial level of cooperation in the community. If two socially separate groups are ecologically connected through resource leakage, cooperation in one can destabilize the other. These findings provide insights into possible effects of global change and spatial connectivity, indicating that there is no simple answer as to their effects on cooperation and sustainable resource use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maja Schlüter
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
| | - Alessandro Tavoni
- Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London WC2A2AZ, UK
| | - Simon Levin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA Resources for the Future, University Fellow, Washington, DC 20036, USA Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, PO Box 50005, Stockholm 10405, Sweden
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82
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Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer M, Cai R, Feng S, Licker R. Climate variability and migration in the Philippines. POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT 2016; 38:286-308. [PMID: 28260827 PMCID: PMC5313594 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0263-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
| | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
| | - Ruohong Cai
- Global Climate Program, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010 USA
| | - Shuaizhang Feng
- Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632 China
| | - Rachel Licker
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
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83
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84
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85
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Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2016; 113:9216-21. [PMID: 27457927 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1601611113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.
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Wenz L, Levermann A. Enhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress-related losses. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2016; 2:e1501026. [PMID: 27386555 PMCID: PMC4928955 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2015] [Accepted: 05/18/2016] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Assessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress-induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonie Wenz
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany
- Corresponding author. (L.W.); (A.L.)
| | - Anders Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
- Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
- Corresponding author. (L.W.); (A.L.)
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Ide T, Michael Link P, Scheffran J, Schilling J. The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies. HEXAGON SERIES ON HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND PEACE 2016. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_12] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
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Nawrotzki RJ, Riosmena F, Hunter LM, Runfola DM. Undocumented migration in response to climate change. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POPULATION STUDIES 2015; 1:60-74. [PMID: 27570840 PMCID: PMC4996473 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.2015.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphael J. Nawrotzki
- University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, Phone: +001 (612) 367-6751
| | - Fernando Riosmena
- University of Colorado Boulder, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU Population Center, 1440 15th Street, Boulder, CO 80302, U.S.A
| | - Lori M. Hunter
- University of Colorado Boulder, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU Population Center, 1440 15th Street, Boulder, CO 80302, U.S.A
| | - Daniel M. Runfola
- The College of William and Mary; 427 Scotland Street, Williamsburg, VA 23185, U.S.A
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90
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Lima M, Abades S. Malthusian Factors as Proximal Drivers of Human Population Crisis at Sub-Saharan Africa. Front Ecol Evol 2015. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2015.00130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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91
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Getanda EM, Papadopoulos C, Evans H. The mental health, quality of life and life satisfaction of internally displaced persons living in Nakuru County, Kenya. BMC Public Health 2015; 15:755. [PMID: 26246147 PMCID: PMC4527222 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-2085-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2014] [Accepted: 07/24/2015] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are among the most vulnerable people in the world today. Previous research highlights that conflict-induced forced displacement can cause problems with mental health and wellbeing. This study aimed to contribute to this body of knowledge by investigating the mental health, quality of life, and life satisfaction among IDPs living in Nakuru, Kenya. METHODS A questionnaire that included the General Health Questionnaire-12, Satisfaction with Life Scale, and a modified version of the WHO Quality of Life-BREF tool was used for data collection. The questionnaire also included an open-ended question inviting qualitative responses about their experience as an IDP. The questionnaire was distributed through a three-stage sampling approach across four refugee camps from four regions of the Nakuru County in Kenya. RESULTS One hundred IDPs participated in this study. All participants scored substantially higher than the applied GHQ-12 threshold for caseness (mean GHQ-12 score = 28.7, SD = 3.6). Quality of life and life satisfaction scores were also very poor (M = 10.24, SD = 1.9; M = 6.82, SD = 1.5 respectively). The qualitative results reflected these findings with statements reflecting suicidal thoughts, unhappiness with the government, lack of support, and fear for themselves and their children. Significantly higher GHQ-12 scores were found among older IDPs (rho = .202, sig = .046), widowers compared to married IDPs (mean difference = -2.41, SE = .885, sig = .027), while lower scores were found among IDPs who reported having friends as a source of support (U = 834, sig = .045), while quality of life scores were higher among IDPs who reported receiving governmental support (U = 248, sig = .018). CONCLUSION The findings revealed poor levels of mental health, quality of life and life satisfaction. Older, widowed IDPs and those who did not perceive support from friends or the government were found to be at the highest risk of poor health and wellbeing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elijah Mironga Getanda
- University of Leicester, School of Psychology, The Greenwood Institute of Child Health, Leicester, LE3 0QU, UK.
| | - Chris Papadopoulos
- University of Bedfordshire, Institute for Health Research, Putteridge Bury Campus, Bedfordshire, LU2 8LE, UK.
| | - Hala Evans
- University of Bedfordshire, Institute for Health Research, Putteridge Bury Campus, Bedfordshire, LU2 8LE, UK.
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D'Amato G, Holgate ST, Pawankar R, Ledford DK, Cecchi L, Al-Ahmad M, Al-Enezi F, Al-Muhsen S, Ansotegui I, Baena-Cagnani CE, Baker DJ, Bayram H, Bergmann KC, Boulet LP, Buters JTM, D'Amato M, Dorsano S, Douwes J, Finlay SE, Garrasi D, Gómez M, Haahtela T, Halwani R, Hassani Y, Mahboub B, Marks G, Michelozzi P, Montagni M, Nunes C, Oh JJW, Popov TA, Portnoy J, Ridolo E, Rosário N, Rottem M, Sánchez-Borges M, Sibanda E, Sienra-Monge JJ, Vitale C, Annesi-Maesano I. Meteorological conditions, climate change, new emerging factors, and asthma and related allergic disorders. A statement of the World Allergy Organization. World Allergy Organ J 2015; 8:25. [PMID: 26207160 PMCID: PMC4499913 DOI: 10.1186/s40413-015-0073-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 254] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2015] [Accepted: 05/29/2015] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The prevalence of allergic airway diseases such as asthma and rhinitis has increased dramatically to epidemic proportions worldwide. Besides air pollution from industry derived emissions and motor vehicles, the rising trend can only be explained by gross changes in the environments where we live. The world economy has been transformed over the last 25 years with developing countries being at the core of these changes. Around the planet, in both developed and developing countries, environments are undergoing profound changes. Many of these changes are considered to have negative effects on respiratory health and to enhance the frequency and severity of respiratory diseases such as asthma in the general population. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, variability in temperature, increased air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods – all of which can put the respiratory health of the public at risk. These changes in climate and air quality have a measurable impact not only on the morbidity but also the mortality of patients with asthma and other respiratory diseases. The massive increase in emissions of air pollutants due to economic and industrial growth in the last century has made air quality an environmental problem of the first order in a large number of regions of the world. A body of evidence suggests that major changes to our world are occurring and involve the atmosphere and its associated climate. These changes, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere, biodiversity, and the human environment. Mitigating this huge health impact and reversing the effects of these changes are major challenges. This statement of the World Allergy Organization (WAO) raises the importance of this health hazard and highlights the facts on climate-related health impacts, including: deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves and extreme meteorological events; increased frequency of acute cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone; changes in the frequency of respiratory diseases due to trans-boundary particle pollution; altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens (pollens, molds, and mites); and some infectious disease vectors. According to this report, these impacts will not only affect those with current asthma but also increase the incidence and prevalence of allergic respiratory conditions and of asthma. The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still not well defined, and more studies addressing this topic are needed. Global warming is expected to affect the start, duration, and intensity of the pollen season on the one hand, and the rate of asthma exacerbations due to air pollution, respiratory infections, and/or cold air inhalation, and other conditions on the other hand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gennaro D'Amato
- Department of Respiratory Diseases, Division of Pneumology and Allergology, High Specialty Hospital "A. Cardarelli" Napoli, Italy, University of Naples Medical School, Via Rione Sirignano, 10, 80121 Napoli, Italy
| | - Stephen T Holgate
- Southampton General Hospital, Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Southampton, Hampshire, UK
| | - Ruby Pawankar
- Department of Pediatrics, Nippon Medical School, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Dennis K Ledford
- Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida
| | - Lorenzo Cecchi
- Interdepartmental Centre of Bioclimatology, University of Florence Allergy and Clinical Immunology Section, Azienda Sanitaria di Prato, Italy
| | - Mona Al-Ahmad
- Department of Allergy, Al-Rashid Center, Ministry of Health, Khobar, Kuwait
| | - Fatma Al-Enezi
- Al-Rashid Allergy and Respiratory Center, Khobar, Kuwait
| | - Saleh Al-Muhsen
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ignacio Ansotegui
- Department of Allergy and Immunology, Hospital Quirón Bizkaia, Erandio, Spain
| | - Carlos E Baena-Cagnani
- Centre for Research in Respiratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Catholic University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - David J Baker
- Emeritus Consultant Anaesthesiologist, SAMU de Paris, Hôpital Necker - Enfants Malades, Paris, France
| | - Hasan Bayram
- Department of Chest Diseases, Respiratory Research Laboratory, Allergy Division, School of Medicine, University of Gaziantep, Şehitkamil/Gaziantep, 27310 Turkey
| | | | - Louis-Philippe Boulet
- Quebec Heart and Lung Institute, Laval University, 2725 chemin Sainte-Foy, Quebec City, G1V 4G5 Canada
| | - Jeroen T M Buters
- ZAUM - Center of Allergy and Environment, Helmholtz Zentrum München/Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany
| | - Maria D'Amato
- University of Naples, Institute of Respiratory Diseases, Naples, Italy
| | - Sofia Dorsano
- World Allergy Organization, Milwaukee, Wisconsin United States
| | - Jeroen Douwes
- Centre for Public Health Research, Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Sarah Elise Finlay
- Consultant in Emergency Medicine, Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, London, UK
| | - Donata Garrasi
- Development Assistance Committee, Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, France
| | | | - Tari Haahtela
- Skin and Allergy Hospital, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Rabih Halwani
- Prince Naif Center for Immunology Research, College of Medicine, King Saud University, P.O.Box 2925, Postal Code 11461 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Youssouf Hassani
- Epidemiology of Respiratory and Allergic Disease Department, UMR-S, Institute Pierre Louis of Epidemiology and Public Health, INSERM Medical School Saint-Antoine, UPMC Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France
| | - Basam Mahboub
- University of Sharjah, and, Rashid Hospital DHA, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Guy Marks
- South Western Sydney Clinical School, UNSW, Australia and Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Dipartimento Epidemiologia Regione Lazio, UOC Epidemiologia Ambientale, Roma, Italy
| | - Marcello Montagni
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Parma, Via Gramsci 14, 43100 Parma, Italy
| | - Carlos Nunes
- Center of Allergy of Algarve, Hospital Particular do Algarve, Particular do Algarve, Brasil
| | - Jay Jae-Won Oh
- Department of Pediatrics, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Todor A Popov
- Clinic of Allergy and Asthma, Medical University in Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Jay Portnoy
- Children's Mercy Hospitals & Clinics, Kansas City, Missouri USA
| | - Erminia Ridolo
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Parma, Via Gramsci 14, 43100 Parma, Italy
| | - Nelson Rosário
- Division of Pediatric Respiratory Medicine, Hospital de Clínicas, Federal University of Parana, Rua Tte. João Gomes da Silva 226, 80810-100 Curitiba, PR Brazil
| | - Menachem Rottem
- Allergy Asthma and Immunology, Emek Medical Center, Afula, and the Rappaport Faculty of Medicine Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel
| | | | - Elopy Sibanda
- Asthma, Allergy and Immune Dysfunction Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Juan José Sienra-Monge
- Allergy and Immunology Department, Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez, SSA, México City, Mexico
| | - Carolina Vitale
- University of Naples, Institute of Respiratory Diseases, Naples, Italy
| | - Isabella Annesi-Maesano
- Epidemiology of Respiratory and Allergic Disease Department (EPAR), Institute Pierre Louis of Epidemiology and Public Health, UMR-S 1136, INSERM, Paris, France ; UPMC, Sorbonne Universités, Medical School Saint-Antoine, 803-804-806, 8 etage/Floor 27, Rue Chaligny, CEDEX 12, 75571 Paris, France
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Bollfrass A, Shaver A. The effects of temperature on political violence: global evidence at the subnational level. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0123505. [PMID: 25992616 PMCID: PMC4439154 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2014] [Accepted: 03/03/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
A number of studies have demonstrated an empirical relationship between higher ambient temperatures and substate violence, which have been extrapolated to make predictions about the security implications of climate change. This literature rests on the untested assumption that the mechanism behind the temperature-conflict link is that disruption of agricultural production provokes local violence. Using a subnational-level dataset, this paper demonstrates that the relationship: (1) obtains globally, (2) exists at the substate level — provinces that experience positive temperature deviations see increased conflict; and (3) occurs even in regions without significant agricultural production. Diminished local farm output resulting from elevated temperatures is unlikely to account for the entire increase in substate violence. The findings encourage future research to identify additional mechanisms, including the possibility that a substantial portion of the variation is brought about by the well-documented direct effects of temperature on individuals' propensity for violence or through macroeconomic mechanisms such as food price shocks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Bollfrass
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, U.S.A.
| | - Andrew Shaver
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, U.S.A.
- * E-mail:
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.
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95
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Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries. SUSTAINABILITY 2015. [DOI: 10.3390/su7044360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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96
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Brzoska M, Fröhlich C. Climate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2015. [DOI: 10.1080/21632324.2015.1022973] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Brzoska
- Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Christiane Fröhlich
- Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
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98
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Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2012. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2014; 111:16712-7. [PMID: 25385621 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1411899111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Ongoing debates in the academic community and in the public policy arena continue without clear resolution about the significance of global climate change for the risk of increased conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is generally agreed to be the region most vulnerable to such climate impacts. Using a large database of conflict events and detailed climatological data covering the period 1980-2012, we apply a multilevel modeling technique that allows for a more nuanced understanding of a climate-conflict link than has been seen heretofore. In the aggregate, high temperature extremes are associated with more conflict; however, different types of conflict and different subregions do not show consistent relationship with temperature deviations. Precipitation deviations, both high and low, are generally not significant. The location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies (temperature or precipitation variations from normal) than by key political, economic, and geographic factors. We find important distinctions in the relationship between temperature extremes and conflict by using multiple methods of analysis and by exploiting our time-series cross-sectional dataset for disaggregated analyses.
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99
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Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer M, Hsiang SM. Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2014; 111:9780-5. [PMID: 24958887 PMCID: PMC4103331 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1317166111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We present a microlevel study to simultaneously investigate the effects of variations in temperature and precipitation along with sudden natural disasters to infer their relative influence on migration that is likely permanent. The study is made possible by the availability of household panel data from Indonesia with an exceptional tracking rate combined with frequent occurrence of natural disasters and significant climatic variations, thus providing a quasi-experiment to examine the influence of environment on migration. Using data on 7,185 households followed over 15 y, we analyze whole-household, province-to-province migration, which allows us to understand the effects of environmental factors on permanent moves that may differ from temporary migration. The results suggest that permanent migration is influenced by climatic variations, whereas episodic disasters tend to have much smaller or no impact on such migration. In particular, temperature has a nonlinear effect on migration such that above 25 °C, a rise in temperature is related to an increase in outmigration, potentially through its impact on economic conditions. We use these results to estimate the impact of projected temperature increases on future permanent migration. Though precipitation also has a similar nonlinear effect on migration, the effect is smaller than that of temperature, underscoring the importance of using an expanded set of climatic factors as predictors of migration. These findings on the minimal influence of natural disasters and precipitation on permanent moves supplement previous findings on the significant role of these variables in promoting temporary migration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, and
| | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, andDepartment of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Solomon M Hsiang
- Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720; andNational Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138
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Maystadt JF, Ecker O. Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks? AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 2014; 96:1157-1182. [PMID: 0 DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aau010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
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