Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees to prevent tree invasions and mitigate their negative impacts

Sustainably managed non-native trees deliver economic and societal benefits with limited risk of spread to adjoining areas. However, some plantations have launched invasions that cause substantial damage to biodiversity and ecosystem services, while others pose substantial threats of causing such impacts. The challenge is to maximise the benefits of non-native trees, while minimising negative impacts and preserving future benefits and options.

A workshop was held in 2019 to develop global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees, using the Council of Europe – Bern Convention Code of Conduct on Invasive Alien Trees as a starting point.

The global guidelines consist of eight recommendations: 1) Use native trees, or non-invasive non-native trees, in preference to invasive non-native trees; 2) Be aware of and comply with international, national, and regional regulations concerning non-native trees; 3) Be aware of the risk of invasion and consider global change trends; 4) Design and adopt tailored practices for plantation site selection and silvicultural management; 5) Promote and implement early detection and rapid response programmes; 6) Design and adopt tailored practices for invasive non-native tree control, habitat restoration, and for dealing with highly modified ecosystems; 7) Engage with stakeholders on the risks posed by invasive non-native trees, the impacts caused, and the options for management; and 8) Develop and support global networks, collaborative research, and information sharing on native and non-native trees.

The global guidelines are a first step towards building global consensus on the precautions that should be taken when introducing and planting non-native trees. They are voluntary and are intended to complement statutory requirements under international and national legislation. The application of the global guidelines and the achievement of their goals will help to conserve forest biodiversity, ensure sustainable forestry, and contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations linked with forest biodiversity.

Seed germination and early seedling survival of the invasive species Prosopis juliflora (Fabaceae) depend on habitat and seed dispersal mode in the Caatinga dry forest

Background

Biological invasion is one of the main threats to tropical biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Prosopis juliflora (Sw) DC. (Fabales: Fabaceae: Caesalpinioideae) was introduced in the Caatinga dry forest of Northeast Brazil at early 1940s and successfully spread across the region. As other invasive species, it may benefit from the soils and seed dispersal by livestock. Here we examine how seed dispersal ecology and soil conditions collectively affect seed germination, early seedling performance and consequently the P. juliflora invasive potential.

Methods

Seed germination, early seedling survival, life expectancy and soil attributes were examined in 10 plots located across three habitats (flooding plain, alluvial terrace and plateau) into a human-modified landscape of the Caatinga dry forest (a total of 12,000 seeds). Seeds were exposed to four seed dispersal methods: deposition on the soil surface, burial in the soil, passed through cattle (Boss taurus) digestive tracts and mixed with cattle manure and passed through mule (Equus africanus asinus × Equus ferus caballus) digestive tracts and mixed with mule manure. Seeds and seedlings were monitored through a year and their performance examined with expectancy tables.

Results

Soils differed among habitats, particularly its nutrient availability, texture and water with finely-textured and more fertile soils in the flooding plain. Total seed germination was relatively low (14.5%), with the highest score among seeds buried in the flooding plain (47.4 ± 25.3%). Seed dispersal by cattle and mule also positively impacted seed germination. Early seedling survival rate of P. juliflora was dramatically reduced with few seedlings still alive elapsed a year. Survival rate was highest in the first 30 days and declined between 30 and 60 days with stabilization at 70 days after germination in all seed treatments and habitats. However, survival and life expectancy were higher in the flooding plain at 75 days and lower in the plateau. Prosopis juliflora seedling survival and life expectancy were higher in the case seeds were mixed with cattle manure.

Synthesis

Prosopis juliflora seeds and seedlings are sensitive to water stress and habitat desiccation. Therefore, they benefit from the humid soils often present across human-disturbed flooding plains. This plant also benefits from seed deposition/dispersal by livestock in these landscapes, since cattle manure represents a nutrient-rich and humid substrate for both seeds and seedlings. The quality of the seed dispersal service varies among livestock species, but this key mutualism between exotic species is due to the arillate, hard-coated and palatable seeds. Prosopis juliflora traits allow this species to take multiple benefits from human presence and thus operating as a human commensal.

Reproductive cycle and maturation of Swinhoe's tree lizard (Diploderma swinhonis (Günther, 1864)) in Hyuga City, Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan

Swinhoe’s tree lizard (Diploderma swinhonis) is an arboreal agamid that is native to Taiwan. The species has been introduced to some areas of Japan and is regarded as an invasive alien species. In 2016, a nonnative population of D. swinhonis was discovered in Hyuga City, Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan, but little information was available on the ecology of the population at the time. The main purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the reproductive cycle and maturation of this population. Field research was conducted from 2017 to 2019, and 764 lizards were collected. Euthanized lizards were dissected and the reproductive organs were examined to determine the reproductive period, clutch size, clutch frequency and size at sexual maturity. Females with oviductal eggs or vitellogenic ovarian follicles were observed from May to October. Clutch size ranged from 2 to 8, and clutch frequency was more than twice a year. In males, spermiogenesis started in early May and testicular regression was observed in September. Males with spermatozoa in the epididymides were found from May to November. Minimum snout-vent length at sexual maturity was 50.2 mm in females and 53.0 mm in males. Comparisons of the findings of this study and reports from Taiwan suggest that the nonnative population of D. swinhonis in Hyuga City has a higher fecundity than populations in Taiwan. It is therefore considered necessary to exterminate the population in Hyuga City before this species colonizes other areas.

Early warning systems in biosecurity; translating risk into action in predictive systems for invasive alien species

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the most severe threats to biodiversity and are the subject of varying degrees of surveillance activity. Predictive early warning systems (EWS), incorporating automated surveillance of relevant dataflows, warning generation and dissemination to decision makers are a key target for developing effective management around IAS, alongside more conventional early detection and horizon scanning technologies. Sophisticated modelling frameworks including the definition of the ‘risky’ species pool, and pathway analysis at the macro and micro-scale are increasingly available to support decision making and to help prioritise risks from different regions and/or taxa. The main challenges in constructing such frameworks, to be applied to border inspections, are (i) the lack of standardisation and integration of the associated complex digital data environments and (ii) effective integration into the decision making process, ensuring that risk information is disseminated in an actionable way to frontline surveillance staff and other decision makers. To truly achieve early warning in biosecurity requires close collaboration between developers and end-users to ensure that generated warnings are duly considered by decision makers, reflect best practice, scientific understanding and the working environment facing frontline actors. Progress towards this goal will rely on openness and mutual understanding of the role of EWS in IAS risk management, as much as on developments in the underlying technologies for surveillance and modelling procedures.

Priority setting for invasive species management by the water industry

The expansion of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) is a growing concern to the UK water industry because of their diverse impacts on water quality, infrastructure and eradication costs. New regulations reinforcing the industry's responsibilities beyond operational costs, coupled with continued range expansion and establishment of new IAS will increase damages. To tackle IAS effectively, the water industry requires reliable information about which species pose the greatest risk to operations and which areas are most vulnerable to invasion. Here we assess potential biosecurity threats for the 24 water companies in the UK using well-established modelling research techniques such as risk assessment and distribution modelling. Using a consensus approach with environmental managers and water companies, we identified 11 IAS of concern for the UK water industry, including five plants, three crustaceans, two molluscs and one fish. These invaders pose important hazards in terms of water quality, flood protection, human health, integrity of infrastructures, recreational and aesthetic values, amongst others. We used distribution models to predict their potential expansion under current and future 2050 climate scenarios within each of the 24 water companies in the UK. Water companies in the South East of England (Cambridge Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water and Thames Water) are under the highest risk of invasional meltdown from multiple IAS, both now and under future scenarios. The quagga mussel poses the most serious risk of immediate spread and may exacerbate the impacts of the widespread zebra mussel for the water industry. The information generated in this study can support the prioritization of species and regions at risk, so that funds for prevention and eradication of invasions are well allocated. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that scientific risk assessments, usually restricted to the academic and public sectors, can be extremely useful to guide decision-making by the private sector.

Scientists' warning on invasive alien species

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long‐term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long‐term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.

The Expectations and Challenges of Wildlife Disease Research in the Era of Genomics: Forecasting with a Horizon Scan-like Exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented "Big Data" tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural "Genomics of Disease in Wildlife" workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed 5 themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: 1) "Improving communication," 2) "Methodological and analytical advancements," 3) "Translation into practice," 4) "Integrating landscape ecology and genomics," and 5) "Emerging new questions." Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Guiding principles for utilizing social influence within expert-elicitation to inform conservation decision-making

Many hundreds of people have engaged with our collaborative studies using expert-elicitation approaches through facilitated discussions to dynamically inform decision-making within the field of biological invasions. We draw on our experiences to outline ways that allow the inclusion of multiple viewpoints within expert-elicitation while limiting or transparently documenting potential bias.

The impact is in the details: evaluating a standardized protocol and scale for determining non-native insect impact

Assessing the ecological and economic impacts of non-native species is crucial to providing managers and policymakers with the information necessary to respond effectively. Most non-native species have minimal impacts on the environment in which they are introduced, but a small fraction are highly deleterious. The definition of ‘damaging’ or ‘high-impact’ varies based on the factors determined to be valuable by an individual or group, but interpretations of whether non-native species meet particular definitions can be influenced by the interpreter’s bias or level of expertise, or lack of group consensus. Uncertainty or disagreement about an impact classification may delay or otherwise adversely affect policymaking on management strategies. One way to prevent these issues would be to have a detailed, nine-point impact scale that would leave little room for interpretation and then divide the scale into agreed upon categories, such as low, medium, and high impact. Following a previously conducted, exhaustive search regarding non-native, conifer-specialist insects, the authors independently read the same sources and scored the impact of 41 conifer-specialist insects to determine if any variation among assessors existed when using a detailed impact scale. Each of the authors, who were selected to participate in the working group associated with this study because of their diverse backgrounds, also provided their level of expertise and uncertainty for each insect evaluated. We observed 85% congruence in impact rating among assessors, with 27% of the insects having perfect inter-rater agreement. Variance in assessment peaked in insects with a moderate impact level, perhaps due to ambiguous information or prior assessor perceptions of these specific insect species. The authors also participated in a joint fact-finding discussion of two insects with the most divergent impact scores to isolate potential sources of variation in assessor impact scores. We identified four themes that could be experienced by impact assessors: ambiguous information, discounted details, observed versus potential impact, and prior knowledge. To improve consistency in impact decision-making, we encourage groups to establish a detailed scale that would allow all observed and published impacts to fall under a particular score, provide clear, reproducible guidelines and training, and use consensus-building techniques when necessary.

Invasive non-native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non-native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non-native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non-native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

Is Antarctica under threat of alien species invasion?

The last decade has seen a rapid development of scientific, logistic and tourist activities, especially in the Antarctic region with the mildest climatic conditions: the Antarctic Peninsula. This region is also exhibiting rapid regional warming and all of the already diagnosed alien species in the Antarctic Treaty Area were found within the Antarctic Peninsula. Identifying potential invasive species that can threaten this pristine area of the Earth helps us to take specific preventive actions. This article is a commentary on Hughes et al., 26, 2702-2716.

Do atmospheric events explain the arrival of an invasive ladybird (Harmonia axyridis) in the UK?

Species introduced outside their natural range threaten global biodiversity and despite greater awareness of invasive species risks at ports and airports, control measures in place only concern anthropogenic routes of dispersal. Here, we use the Harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, an invasive species which first established in the UK from continental Europe in 2004, to test whether records from 2004 and 2005 were associated with atmospheric events. We used the atmospheric- chemistry transport model SILAM to model the movement of this species from known distributions in continental Europe and tested whether the predicted atmospheric events were associated with the frequency of ladybird records in the UK. We show that the distribution of this species in the early years of its arrival does not provide substantial evidence for a purely anthropogenic introduction and show instead that atmospheric events can better explain this arrival event. Our results suggest that air flows which may assist dispersal over the English Channel are relatively frequent; ranging from once a week from Belgium and the Netherlands to 1-2 times a week from France over our study period. Given the frequency of these events, we demonstrate that atmospheric-assisted dispersal is a viable route for flying species to cross natural barriers.

Recreational angling as a pathway for invasive non-native species spread: awareness of biosecurity and the risk of long distance movement into Great Britain

Identifying and establishing the relative importance of different anthropogenic pathways of invasive non-native species (INNS) introduction is critical for effective management of their establishment and spread in the long-term. Angling has been identified as one of these pathways. An online survey of 680 British anglers was conducted to establish patterns of movement by British anglers abroad, and to establish their awareness and use of biosecurity practices. The survey revealed that 44% of British anglers travelled abroad for fishing, visiting 72 different countries. France was the most frequently visited country, accounting for one-third of all trips abroad. The estimated time taken to travel from Western Europe into Great Britain (GB) is within the time frame that INNS have been shown to survive on damp angling equipment. Without biosecurity, it is therefore highly likely that INNS could be unintentionally transported into GB on damp angling gear. Since the launch of the Check, Clean Dry biosecurity campaign in GB in 2011, the number of anglers cleaning their equipment after every trip has increased by 15%, and 80% of anglers now undertake some form of biosecurity. However, a significant proportion of the angling population is still not implementing sufficient, or the correct biosecurity measures to minimize the risk of INNS dispersal on damp angling equipment. With the increase in movement of anglers abroad for fishing, further work is required to establish the potential for INNS introduction through this pathway.

Technology innovation: advancing capacities for the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species

The 2016–2018National Invasive Species Council (NISC) Management Plan and Executive Order 13751 call for US federal agencies to foster technology development and application to address invasive species and their impacts. This paper complements and draws on an Innovation Summit, review of advanced biotechnologies applicable to invasive species management, and a survey of federal agencies that respond to these high-level directives. We provide an assessment of federal government capacities for the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species (EDRR) through advances in technology application; examples of emerging technologies for the detection, identification, reporting, and response to invasive species; and guidance for fostering further advancements in applicable technologies. Throughout the paper, we provide examples of how federal agencies are applying technologies to improve programmatic effectiveness and cost-efficiencies. We also highlight the outstanding technology-related needs identified by federal agencies to overcome barriers to enacting EDRR. Examples include improvements in research facility infrastructure, data mobilization across a wide range of invasive species parameters (from genetic to landscape scales), promotion of and support for filling key gaps in technological capacity (e.g., portable, field-ready devices with automated capacities), and greater investments in technology prizes and challenge competitions.

The early detection of and rapid response (EDRR) to invasive species: a conceptual framework and federal capacities assessment

Globalization necessitates that we address the negative externalities of international trade and transport, including biological invasion. The US government defines invasive species to mean, “with regard to a particular ecosystem, a non-native organism whose introduction causes, or is likely to cause, economic or environmental harm, or harm to human, animal, or plant health.” Here we address the role of early detection of and rapid response to invasive species (EDRR) in minimizing the impact of invasive species on US interests. We provide a review of EDRR’s usage as a federal policy and planning term, introduce a new conceptual framework for EDRR, and assess US federal capacities for enacting well-coordinated EDRR. Developing a national EDRR program is a worthwhile goal; our assessment nonetheless indicates that the federal government and its partners need to overcome substantial conceptual, institutional, and operational challenges that include establishing clear and consistent terminology use, strategically identifying and communicating agency functions, improving interagency budgeting, facilitating the application of emerging technologies and other resources to support EDRR, and making information relevant to EDRR preparedness and implementation more readily accessible. This paper is the first in a special issue of Biological Invasions that includes 12 complementary papers intended to inform the development and implementation of a national EDRR program.

Microcapsulated biocides for the targeted control of invasive bivalves

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the greatest drivers of ecological change. Typically, control uses chemical agents that often are ineffective, harmful to non-target organisms, and environmentally persistent. Bivalves are frequently high impact IAS, but have proven particularly hard to control due to their valve-closing response when exposed to conventional control agents. Microencapsulation of biocides with edible coatings represents a highly targeted delivery route, bypassing avoidance responses and accumulating in bivalves through their prodigious filter feeding. Uneaten microcapsules degrade and become biologically inactive within hours thus reducing potential impacts on non-target biota. We manufactured two new formulations of microcapsules (BioBullets). Particles were designed to mimic natural food particles (algae) in terms of size (9.5 ± 0.5 to 19.4 ± 1.3 SE µm diameter), buoyancy (near neutral) and shape (spherical). Laboratory exposures demonstrated that two formulations effectively controlled the Gulf wedge clam Rangia cuneata, an IAS currently spreading rapidly through Europe. A single dose of 2-6 mg L^-1 of the active ingredient in a static system achieved 90% mortality after 30 days of exposure. Microencapsulation offers an effective and targeted management tool for rapid responses following the early detection of both Gulf wedge clams and many other filter-feeding IAS, and may be especially effective in closed systems or where populations remain very localised.

Composition patterns of ornamental flora in the Czech Republic

Ornamental plants are an important component of urban floras and a significant source of alien plant invasions to the surrounding landscapes. We studied ornamental flora across 174 settlements in the Czech Republic, Central Europe. The aims of the study were to (i) identify clusters of sites that are defined as distinctive groups of ornamental taxa reflecting environmental or socioeconomic factors and (ii) apply the classification approach which is traditionally used for spontaneous vegetation in order to evaluate the potential of different settlement types to act as source sites of invasive species. The inventories were classified in a similar manner that is generally applied to spontaneous vegetation using the COCKTAIL method. Diagnostic taxa were classified in a repeatable manner into 17 species groups, forming five distinctive clusters with ~70% of sites attributed to one cluster. The species pools of the clusters differed in their representation of species with native or alien status and different life forms. The following clusters were distinguished, based on the prevailing type of settlement: (1) old villas neighbourhoods of towns, (2) upland settlements, (3) modern neighbourhoods, (4) old rustic settlements and (5) modern rustic settlements. Similar to spontaneous vegetation, the classification of ornamental flora reflects both basic natural gradients (i.e. altitude) and man-made factors (i.e. the preferences for certain plants and associated management practices). Alien taxa associated with modern neighbourhoods are characterised by a relatively higher invasion potential than those from, for example, old rustic settlements. This is especially true for woody species which can spread in ruderal habitats as a result of urban sprawl. Our results showed that the classification method, commonly used to analyse vegetation data, can also be applied to ornamental flora.

Horizon scanning to identify invasion risk of ornamental plants marketed in Spain

Horticulture is one of the main pathways of deliberate introduction of non-native plants, some of which might become invasive. Of the 914 commercial ornamental outdoor plant species sold in Spain, 700 (77%) are non-native (archaeophytes excluded) marketed species. We classified these into six different lists based on their invasion status in Spain and elsewhere, their climatic suitability in Spain and their potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts. We found sufficient information for 270 species. We provide a Priority List of eight regulated invasive species that were still available on the market. We also established an Attention List with 68 non-regulated invasive and potentially invasive species that might cause various impacts. To prioritise the species within the Attention List, we further assessed the risk of invasion of these species by using an adaptation of the Australian WRA protocol and the level of societal interest estimated from values of the Google Trends tool. We also propose a Green List of seven species with probably no potential to become invasive, a Watch List with 27 potentially invasive species with few potential impacts and an Uncertainty List with 161 species of known status but with insufficient information to include them in any of the previous lists. We did not find sufficient information for 430 (61%) of the marketed non-native plant species, which were compiled into a Data Deficient List. Our findings of prohibited species for sale highlight the need for stronger enforcement of the regulations on invasive plant species in Spain. In addition, our results highlight the need for additional information on potential impacts and climate suitability of horticultural plants being sold in Spain, as insufficient information could be found to assess the invasion risk for most species.

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non-native marine species. Non-native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non-native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non-native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non-native marine species is limited: just four marine non-native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub-Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well-informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.

Peyton J, Preda C, Roques A, Rorke SL, Scalera R, Schindler S, Schönrogge K, Sewell J, Solarz W, Stewart AJA, Tricarico E, Vanderhoeven S, van der Velde G, Vilà M, Wood CA, Zenetos A, Rabitsch W. Developing a list of invasive alien species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the European Union

The European Union (EU) has recently published its first list of invasive alien species (IAS) of EU concern to which current legislation must apply. The list comprises species known to pose great threats to biodiversity and needs to be maintained and updated. Horizon scanning is seen as critical to identify the most threatening potential IAS that do not yet occur in Europe to be subsequently risk assessed for future listing. Accordingly, we present a systematic consensus horizon scanning procedure to derive a ranked list of potential IAS likely to arrive, establish, spread and have an impact on biodiversity in the region over the next decade. The approach is unique in the continental scale examined, the breadth of taxonomic groups and environments considered, and the methods and data sources used. International experts were brought together to address five broad thematic groups of potential IAS. For each thematic group the experts first independently assembled lists of potential IAS not yet established in the EU but potentially threatening biodiversity if introduced. Experts were asked to score the species within their thematic group for their separate likelihoods of i) arrival, ii) establishment, iii) spread, and iv) magnitude of the potential negative impact on biodiversity within the EU. Experts then convened for a 2-day workshop applying consensus methods to compile a ranked list of potential IAS. From an initial working list of 329 species, a list of 66 species not yet established in the EU that were considered to be very high (8 species), high (40 species) or medium (18 species) risk species was derived. Here, we present these species highlighting the potential negative impacts and the most likely biogeographic regions to be affected by these potential IAS.

Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: Current trends and future invasion risks

Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing nonindigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Sixteen of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, 19 and 14 records, respectively. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan-Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to global change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change-invasive species and climate change.

Inter-basin water transfers and the expansion of aquatic invasive species

Inter-basin Water Transfers (IBWT) are recognized as one of the major pathways of freshwater invasion. They provide a direct link between previously isolated catchments and may modify the habitat conditions of the receiving waters such that they become more favourable for the establishment of invasive species. Combined, IBWT and invasive species will intensify the stress upon native species and ecosystems. Using the Severn and Thames Rivers -two of the largest river systems in Great Britain-as a case study, here we assess the potential influence of IBWT on the expansion of invasive species and thus their impact on biodiversity conservation. The Thames Valley is subject to extensive water abstraction, and an increasing population means that supplemented flow from the River Severn is being considered. Multi-scale Suitability Models, based on climate and water chemistry respectively, provided novel evidence that there is serious risk for further spread of invasive species in the focus area, particularly of the quagga mussel, a recent invader of the Thames River. Native freshwater mussels are particularly vulnerable to changing environmental conditions, and may suffer the decrease in alkalinity and increase in sedimentation associated with an IBWT from the lower Severn to the upper Thames. Regional models suggest considerable overlap between the areas suitable for three vulnerable native freshwater mussels and the expansion of invasive species that negatively impact upon the native mussels. This study illustrates the use of novel spatially-explicit techniques to help managers make informed decisions about the risks associated with introducing aquatic invasive species under different engineering scenarios. Such information may be especially important under new legislation (e.g. EU Invasive Species Regulation No 1143/2014) which increases the responsibility of water managers to contain and not transfer invasive species into new locations.

Marine exotic isopods from the Iberian Peninsula and nearby waters

Effective management of marine bioinvasions starts with prevention, communication among the scientific community and comprehensive updated data on the distribution ranges of exotic species. Despite being a hotspot for introduction due to numerous shipping routes converging at the Strait of Gibraltar, knowledge of marine exotics in the Iberian Peninsula is scarce, especially of abundant but small-sized and taxonomically challenging taxa such as the Order Isopoda. To fill this gap, we conducted several sampling surveys in 44 marinas and provide the first comprehensive study of marine exotic isopods from the Iberian Peninsula, the southern side of the Strait of Gibraltar (northern Africa) and the Balearic Islands. Exotic species included Ianiropsis serricaudis (first record for the Iberian Peninsula and Lusitanian marine province), Paracerceis sculpta (first record for the Alboran Sea ecoregion), Paradella dianae, Paranthura japonica (earliest record for the Iberian Peninsula) and Sphaeroma walkeri. Photographs with morphological details for identification for non-taxonomic experts are provided, their worldwide distribution is updated and patterns of invasion are discussed. We report an expansion in the distribution range of all species, especially at the Strait of Gibraltar and nearby areas. Ianiropsis serricaudis and Paranthura japonica are polyvectic, with shellfish trade and recreational boating being most probable vectors for their introduction and secondary spread. The subsequent finding of the studied species in additional marinas over the years points at recreational boating as a vector and indicates a future spread. We call for attention to reduce lags in the detection and reporting of small-size exotics, which usually remain overlooked or underestimated until the invasion process is at an advanced stage.

Advancing the adverse outcome pathway framework-An international horizon scanning approach

Our ability to conduct whole-organism toxicity tests to understand chemical safety has been outpaced by the synthesis of new chemicals for a wide variety of commercial applications. As a result, scientists and risk assessors are turning to mechanistically based studies to increase efficiencies in chemical risk assessment and making greater use of in vitro and in silico methods to evaluate potential environmental and human health hazards. In this context, the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has gained traction in regulatory science because it offers an efficient and effective means for capturing available knowledge describing the linkage between mechanistic data and the apical toxicity end points required for regulatory assessments. A number of international activities have focused on AOP development and various applications to regulatory decision-making. These initiatives have prompted dialogue between research scientists and regulatory communities to consider how best to use the AOP framework. Although expert-facilitated discussions and AOP development have been critical in moving the science of AOPs forward, it was recognized that a survey of the broader scientific and regulatory communities would aid in identifying current limitations while guiding future initiatives for the AOP framework. To that end, a global horizon scanning exercise was conducted to solicit questions concerning the challenges or limitations that must be addressed to realize the full potential of the AOP framework in research and regulatory decision-making. The questions received fell into several broad topical areas: AOP networks, quantitative AOPs, collaboration on and communication of AOP knowledge, AOP discovery and development, chemical and cross-species extrapolation, exposure/toxicokinetics considerations, and AOP applications. Expert ranking was then used to prioritize questions for each category, where 4 broad themes emerged that could help inform and guide future AOP research and regulatory initiatives. In addition, frequently asked questions were identified and addressed by experts in the field. Answers to frequently asked questions will aid in addressing common misperceptions and will allow for clarification of AOP topics. The need for this type of clarification was highlighted with surprising frequency by our question submitters, indicating that improvements are needed in communicating the AOP framework among the scientific and regulatory communities. Overall, horizon scanning engaged the global scientific community to help identify key questions surrounding the AOP framework and guide the direction of future initiatives. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1411-1421. © 2017 SETAC.

Broad shifts in the resource use of a commercially harvested fish following the invasion of dreissenid mussels

Dreissenid mussels, including the zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga (Dreissena rostiformus bugensis) mussel, are invasive species known for their capacity to act as ecosystem engineers. They have caused significant changes in the many freshwater systems they have invaded by increasing water clarity, reducing primary productivity, and altering zooplankton and benthic invertebrate assemblages. What is less clear is how their ecosystem engineering effects manifest up the food web to impact higher trophic levels, including fish. Here, we use a biological tracer (stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen) to analyze long-term and broad-scale trends in the resource use of benthivorous lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in the Laurentian Great Lakes, where dreissenid mussels have become established in each lake except Lake Superior. We measured stable isotope ratios from archived material (fish scale samples) collected over several decades by multiple agencies and from 14 locations around the Great Lakes. In the majority of locations, the δ¹³ C of lake whitefish increased following the establishment of dreissenid mussels. Trends in δ¹⁵ N were less clear, but significant breakpoints in the time series occurred within 5 yr of dreissenid establishment in several locations, followed by declines in δ¹⁵ N. In contrast, isotopic signatures in Lake Superior locations did not show these trends. Our results provide evidence that lake whitefish shifted toward greater reliance on nearshore benthic production, supporting the theory that fundamental energy pathways are changed when dreissenid mussels become established. Importantly, these effects were noted across multiple, large, and complex ecosystems spanning a broad geographic area. Our study underscores the potential for aquatic invasive species to alter key ecosystem services as demonstrated here through their impacts on energy pathways supporting a commercially harvested fish species.

From pest data to abundance-based risk maps combining eco-physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability

Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R²  = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where scouting efforts and prophylactic measures should be concentrated. The approach we took is general, relatively simple, and can be applied to other species, habitats and geographical areas for which species abundance data and biotic and abiotic data are available.