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de Schrijver E, Royé D, Gasparrini A, Franco OH, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, HEALTH : ERH 2023; 1:025003-25003. [PMID: 36969952 PMCID: PMC7614344 DOI: 10.1088/2752-5309/acab78] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Heat- and cold-related mortality risks are highly variable across different geographies, suggesting a differential distribution of vulnerability factors between and within countries, which could partly be driven by urban-to-rural disparities. Identifying these drivers of risk is crucial to characterize local vulnerability and design tailored public health interventions to improve adaptation of populations to climate change. We aimed to assess how heat- and cold-mortality risks change across urban, peri-urban and rural areas in Switzerland and to identify and compare the factors associated with increased vulnerability within and between different area typologies. We estimated the heat- and cold-related mortality association using the case time-series design and distributed lag non-linear models over daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality series between 1990-2017 in each municipality in Switzerland. Then, through multivariate meta-regression, we derived pooled heat and cold-mortality associations by typology (i.e. urban/rural/peri-urban) and assessed potential vulnerability factors among a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, land use and other environmental data. Urban clusters reported larger pooled heat-related mortality risk (at 99th percentile, vs. temperature of minimum mortality (MMT)) (relative risk=1.17(95%CI:1.10;1.24, vs peri-urban 1.03(1.00;1.06), and rural 1.03 (0.99;1.08)), but similar cold-mortality risk (at 1st percentile, vs. MMT) (1.35(1.28;1.43), vs rural 1.28(1.14;1.44) and peri-urban 1.39 (1.27-1.53)) clusters. We found different sets of vulnerability factors explaining the differential risk patterns across typologies. In urban clusters, mainly environmental factors (i.e. PM2.5) drove differences in heat-mortality association, while for peri-urban/rural clusters socio-economic variables were also important. For cold, socio-economic variables drove changes in vulnerability across all typologies, while environmental factors and ageing were other important drivers of larger vulnerability in peri-urban/rural clusters, with heterogeneity in the direction of the association. Our findings suggest that urban populations in Switzerland may be more vulnerable to heat, compared to rural locations, and different sets of vulnerability factors may drive these associations in each typology. Thus, future public health adaptation strategies should consider local and more tailored interventions rather than a one-size fits all approach. size fits all approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London United Kingdom
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London United Kingdom
| | - Oscar H Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Li Y, Varghese BM, Liu J, Bi P, Tong M. Association between High Ambient Temperatures and Road Crashes in an Australian City with Temperate Climate: A Time-Series Study, 2012-2021. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:6000. [PMID: 37297604 PMCID: PMC10252869 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20116000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2023] [Revised: 05/20/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: High ambient temperatures are associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates, and some evidence suggests that high temperatures increase the risk of road crashes. However, little is known regarding the burden of road crashes attributable to no-optimal high temperatures in Australia. Therefore, this study examined the effects of high temperatures on road crashes using Adelaide in South Australia as a case study. (2) Methods: Ten-year daily time-series data on road crashes (n = 64,597) and weather during the warm season (October-March) were obtained between 2012 and 2021. A quasi-Poisson distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the cumulative effect of high temperatures over the previous five days. The associations and attributable burden at moderate and extreme temperature ranges were computed as relative risk (RR) and attributable fraction. (3) Results: There was a J-shaped association between high ambient temperature and the risk of road crashes during the warm season in Adelaide, and pronounced effects were observed for minimum temperatures. The highest risk was observed at a 1 day lag and lasting for 5 days. High temperatures were responsible for 0.79% (95% CI: 0.15-1.33%) of road crashes, with moderately high temperatures accounting for most of the burden compared with extreme temperatures (0.55% vs. 0.32%). (4) Conclusions: In the face of a warming climate, the finding draws the attention of road transport, policy, and public health planners to design preventive plans to reduce the risk of road crashes attributable to high temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yannan Li
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | | | - Jingwen Liu
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Michael Tong
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
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Hadré E, Küpper J, Tschirschwitz J, Mengert M, Labuhn I. Quantifying generational and geographical inequality of climate change. Sci Rep 2023; 13:8483. [PMID: 37231045 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-35690-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2022] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023] Open
Abstract
We relate greenhouse gas emissions and global warming experienced over a lifetime by individual birth cohorts, resolved by world regions. We reveal outstanding geographical inequality between high- and low-emission regions corresponding to the nations of the Global North and Global South, respectively. Additionally, we highlight the inequality different birth cohorts (generations) experience regarding the burden of recent and ongoing warming temperatures as a time-delayed consequence of past emissions. We achieve precise quantification of the number of birth cohorts and populations who see a difference between Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), emphasizing the potential for action and the chances for improvement that exist under the different scenarios. The method is designed to realistically display inequality, as it is experienced by people while motivating action and change needed to achieve emission reduction to reduce climate change and generational and geographical inequality simultaneously.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Hadré
- Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Celsiusstr. 2, 28359, Bremen, Germany.
| | - Jonas Küpper
- Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Celsiusstr. 2, 28359, Bremen, Germany
| | - Janina Tschirschwitz
- Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Celsiusstr. 2, 28359, Bremen, Germany
| | - Melissa Mengert
- Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Celsiusstr. 2, 28359, Bremen, Germany
| | - Inga Labuhn
- Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Celsiusstr. 2, 28359, Bremen, Germany
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Ke D, Takahashi K, Takakura J, Takara K, Kamranzad B. Effects of heatwave features on machine-learning-based heat-related ambulance calls prediction models in Japan. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 873:162283. [PMID: 36801340 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 02/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Researchers agree that there is substantial evidence of an increasing trend in both the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events. Increasing extreme temperature events will place more pressure on public health and emergency medical resources, and societies will need to find effective and reliable solutions to adapt to hotter summers. This study developed an effective method to predict the number of daily heat-related ambulance calls. Both national- and regional-level models were developed to evaluate the performance of machine-learning-based methods on heat-related ambulance call prediction. The national model showed a high prediction accuracy and can be applied over most regions, while the regional model showed extremely high prediction accuracy in each corresponding region and reliable accuracy in special cases. We found that the introduction of heatwave features, including accumulated heat stress, heat acclimatization, and optimal temperature, significantly improved prediction accuracy. The adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted R2) of the national model improved from 0.9061 to 0.9659 by including these features, and the adjusted R2 of the regional model also improved from 0.9102 to 0.9860. Furthermore, we used five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs) to forecast the total number of summer heat-related ambulance calls under three different future climate scenarios nationally and regionally. Our analysis demonstrated that, at the end of the 21st century, the total number of heat-related ambulance calls in Japan will reach approximately 250,000 per year (nearly four times the current amount) under SSP-5.85. Our results suggest that disaster management agencies can use this highly accurate model to forecast potential high emergency medical resource burden caused by extreme heat events, allowing them to raise and improve public awareness and prepare countermeasures in advance. The method proposed in Japan in this paper can be applied to other countries that have relevant data and weather information systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deng Ke
- Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Nakaadachi 1, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8306, Japan.
| | - Kiyoshi Takahashi
- Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Jun'ya Takakura
- Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Kaoru Takara
- Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
| | - Bahareh Kamranzad
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G11XJ, United Kingdom
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105
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Yezli S, Khan AH, Yassin YM, Khan AA, Alotaibi BM, Bouchama A. Human tolerance to extreme heat: evidence from a desert climate population. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2023:10.1038/s41370-023-00549-7. [PMID: 37138035 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-023-00549-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Revised: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ambient temperatures exceeding 40 °C are projected to become common in many temperate climatic zones due to global warming. Therefore, understanding the health effects of continuous exposure to high ambient temperatures on populations living in hot climatic regions can help identify the limits of human tolerance. OBJECTIVE We studied the relationship between ambient temperature and non-accidental mortality in the hot desert city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, between 2006 and 2015. METHODS We used a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the mortality-temperature association over 25 days of lag. We determined the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and the deaths that are attributable to heat and cold. RESULTS We analyzed 37,178 non-accidental deaths reported in the ten-year study period among Mecca residents. The median average daily temperature was 32 °C (19-42 °C) during the same study period. We observed a U-shaped relationship between daily temperature and mortality with an MMT of 31.8 °C. The total temperature-attributable mortality of Mecca residents was 6.9% (-3.2; 14.8) without reaching statistical significance. However, extreme heat, higher than 38 °C, was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality. The lag structure effect of the temperature showed an immediate impact, followed by a decline in mortality over many days of heat. No effect of cold on mortality was observed. IMPACT STATEMENT High ambient temperatures are projected to become future norms in temperate climates. Studying populations familiar with desert climates for generations with access to air-conditioning would inform on the mitigation measures to protect other populations from heat and on the limits of human tolerance to extreme temperatures. We studied the relationship between ambient temperature and all-cause mortality in the hot desert city of Mecca. We found that Mecca population is adapted to high temperatures, although there was a limit to tolerance to extreme heat. This implies that mitigation measures should be directed to accelerate individual adaptation to heat and societal reorganization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saber Yezli
- Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Scientific Computing Department, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
- Global Centre for Mass Gathering Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, 12341, Saudi Arabia.
- Experimental Medicine Department, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences 11481, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Altaf H Khan
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Center for Medical Research / King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences 11481, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Yara M Yassin
- Global Centre for Mass Gathering Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, 12341, Saudi Arabia
| | - Anas A Khan
- Global Centre for Mass Gathering Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, 12341, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, 12372, Saudi Arabia
| | - Badriah M Alotaibi
- Global Centre for Mass Gathering Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, 12341, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abderrezak Bouchama
- Experimental Medicine Department, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences 11481, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
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106
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Errett NA, Dolan K, Hartwell C, Vickery J, Hess JJ. Climate Change Adaptation Activities and Needs in US State and Territorial Health Agencies. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH MANAGEMENT AND PRACTICE 2023; 29:E115-E123. [PMID: 36729985 DOI: 10.1097/phh.0000000000001674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To characterize US State and Territorial Health Agencies' (S/THA) climate change adaptation activities and priorities to facilitate appropriate investments, skills development, and support that will strengthen health sector capacity in response to a changing climate. DESIGN In 2021, we conducted an online survey of S/THA staff requesting information on current activities related to climate change and health, the state of climate and health programming, and anticipated needs and priorities for assistance. We analyzed survey results using descriptive statistics. SETTING US State and Territorial Health Agencies. PARTICIPANTS We received responses from 41 of 59 S/THAs (69.5%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Implementation of S/THA climate and health programs (CHPs); engagement in climate and health activities; maintenance of hazard early warning systems and action plans; employment of climate and health communications strategies; capability to assess risks and adaptation needs related to various climate-sensitive conditions; priorities and plans for climate change adaptation in relation to climate-sensitive health risks; climate change adaptation-related partnerships and collaborations; requests of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) for advancing climate change adaptation activities; and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change work. RESULTS Nineteen S/THAs reported having CHPs, the majority of which are federally funded. On average, S/THAs without CHPs reported engagement in fewer climate and health activities and more early warning activities. The S/THAs reported the highest levels of concerns regarding non-vector-borne infectious disease (66%), vector-borne infectious diseases (61%), and extreme heat (61%) hazards. CONCLUSIONS As S/THAs with CHPs report substantially greater climate and health capacity than those without, additional federal and state investments (eg, Building Resilience Against Climate Effects [BRACE]) are urgently needed to catalyze climate and health capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole A Errett
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Drs Errett, Vickery, and Hess and Ms Hartwell); Center for Health and the Global Environment, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Drs Errett and Hess); Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, Washington, District of Columbia (Ms Dolan); Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Dr Hess); and Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Dr Hess)
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107
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Martin-Kerry JM, Graham HM, Lampard P. 'I don't really associate climate change with actual people's health': a qualitative study in England of perceptions of climate change and its impacts on health. Public Health 2023; 219:85-90. [PMID: 37126972 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.03.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The health impacts of climate change are increasing, but qualitative evidence on people's perceptions is limited. This qualitative study investigated people's perceptions of climate change and its impacts on health. STUDY DESIGN This was an online study using semistructured interviews. METHODS A total of 41 semistructured interviews were conducted in 2021 with members of the public aged ≥15 years living in England, recruited via community-based groups. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS Participants were concerned about climate change, which was often perceived as extreme weather events happening elsewhere. Changes in the UK's seasons and weather patterns were noted, but participants were uncertain whether these changes resulted from climate change. Participants often struggled to identify health impacts of climate change; where health impacts were described, they tended to be linked to extreme weather events outside the United Kingdom and their associated threats to life. The mental health impacts of such events were also noted. CONCLUSIONS The study found that most participants did not perceive climate change to be affecting people's health in England. This raises questions about whether framing climate change as a health issue, an approach advocated for countries less exposed to the direct effects of climate change, will increase its salience for the British public.
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Affiliation(s)
- J M Martin-Kerry
- School of Healthcare, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
| | - H M Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Seebohm Rowntree Building, University of York, York, YO105DD, UK.
| | - P Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Seebohm Rowntree Building, University of York, York, YO105DD, UK
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108
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Feron S, Cordero RR, Damiani A, Oyola P, Ansari T, Pedemonte JC, Wang C, Ouyang Z, Gallo V. Compound climate-pollution extremes in Santiago de Chile. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6726. [PMID: 37185945 PMCID: PMC10130055 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-33890-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Cities in the global south face dire climate impacts. It is in socioeconomically marginalized urban communities of the global south that the effects of climate change are felt most deeply. Santiago de Chile, a major mid-latitude Andean city of 7.7 million inhabitants, is already undergoing the so-called "climate penalty" as rising temperatures worsen the effects of endemic ground-level ozone pollution. As many cities in the global south, Santiago is highly segregated along socioeconomic lines, which offers an opportunity for studying the effects of concurrent heatwaves and ozone episodes on distinct zones of affluence and deprivation. Here, we combine existing datasets of social indicators and climate-sensitive health risks with weather and air quality observations to study the response to compound heat-ozone extremes of different socioeconomic strata. Attributable to spatial variations in the ground-level ozone burden (heavier for wealthy communities), we found that the mortality response to extreme heat (and the associated further ozone pollution) is stronger in affluent dwellers, regardless of comorbidities and lack of access to health care affecting disadvantaged population. These unexpected findings underline the need of a site-specific hazard assessment and a community-based risk management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Feron
- Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Av. Bernardo O'Higgins 3363, Santiago, Chile
- University of Groningen, Wirdumerdijk 34, 8911 CE, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
| | - Raúl R Cordero
- Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Av. Bernardo O'Higgins 3363, Santiago, Chile.
| | - Alessandro Damiani
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 1-33 Yayoicho, Inage Ward, Chiba, 263-8522, Japan
| | - Pedro Oyola
- Centro Mario Molina, Antonio Bellet 292, Santiago, Chile
| | - Tabish Ansari
- Research Institute for Sustainability - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS), Berliner Str. 130, 14467, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Juan C Pedemonte
- School of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Chenghao Wang
- School of Meteorology & Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Suite 5220, Norman, OK, 73072, USA
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
| | - Zutao Ouyang
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-2210, USA
| | - Valentina Gallo
- University of Groningen, Wirdumerdijk 34, 8911 CE, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
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109
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Li W, Liu C, Ho HC, Shi L, Zeng Y, Yang X, Xia H, Zhang W, Huang C, Yang L. Estimating the effect of increasing ambient temperature on antimicrobial resistance in China: A nationwide ecological study with the difference-in-differences approach. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 882:163518. [PMID: 37080321 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Revised: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and the possible consequences of rising ambient temperatures brought on by global warming have been extensively discussed. However, the epidemiological evidence on the effects of temperature on AMR is rare and little is known about the role of socioeconomic inequities. This ecological study obtained 31 provinces AMR data of Escherichia Coli (E. coli) from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (CARSS) over the period from 2014 to 2020, which were linked to the meteorological and socioeconomic data published in the China Statistical Yearbook. Modified difference-in-differences (DID) analyses were performed to estimate the effect of ambient temperature on AMR of E. coli to third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefotaxime), carbapenems, and quinolones, adjusting for variations in meteorological and socioeconomic factors. We estimated that every 1 °C increase in average ambient temperature was associated with 2.71 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-4.24), 32.92 % (95 % CI: 15.62-52.81), and 1.81 % (95 % CI: 0.47-3.16) increase in the prevalence of E. coli resistance to third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefotaxime), carbapenems and quinolones, respectively. The link was more profound in the regions with lower temperature and a median level of average humidity, and the regions with lower income, lower expenditure (in economics), lower health resources, and lower hospital admissions. Neither the replacement of the temperature variable nor the alternative approaches for confounding adjustment changed the positive association between ambient temperature and AMR. In general, there exists a positive association between ambient temperature and AMR, although the strength of such an association varies by socioeconomic and health services factors. The association is possibly nonlinear, especially for E. coli resistance to third-generation cephalosporins. The findings suggest that AMR control programs should explicitly incorporate weather patterns to increase their effectiveness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weibin Li
- Department of Health Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Chaojie Liu
- School of Psychology and Public Health, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Anaesthesiology, School of Clinical Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Lin Shi
- Department of Health Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yingchao Zeng
- Department of Health Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xinyi Yang
- Department of Health Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Haohai Xia
- Department of Health Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wangjian Zhang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Lianping Yang
- Department of Health Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
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Schieber TA, Carpi LC, Pardalos PM, Masoller C, Díaz-Guilera A, Ravetti MG. Diffusion capacity of single and interconnected networks. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2217. [PMID: 37072418 PMCID: PMC10113202 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37323-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2023] [Indexed: 04/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding diffusive processes in networks is a significant challenge in complexity science. Networks possess a diffusive potential that depends on their topological configuration, but diffusion also relies on the process and initial conditions. This article presents Diffusion Capacity, a concept that measures a node's potential to diffuse information based on a distance distribution that considers both geodesic and weighted shortest paths and dynamical features of the diffusion process. Diffusion Capacity thoroughly describes the role of individual nodes during a diffusion process and can identify structural modifications that may improve diffusion mechanisms. The article defines Diffusion Capacity for interconnected networks and introduces Relative Gain, which compares the performance of a node in a single structure versus an interconnected one. The method applies to a global climate network constructed from surface air temperature data, revealing a significant change in diffusion capacity around the year 2000, suggesting a loss of the planet's diffusion capacity that could contribute to the emergence of more frequent climatic events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiago A Schieber
- Departamento de Ciências Administrativas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
| | - Laura C Carpi
- Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia, Sistemas Complexos, INCT-SC, CEFET-MG, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
- Machine Intelligence and Data Science Laboratory (MINDS), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
| | - Panos M Pardalos
- Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Lab LATNA, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
| | - Cristina Masoller
- Departament de Física, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Terrassa, BCN, Spain
| | - Albert Díaz-Guilera
- Departament de Física de la Matèria Condensada, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, BCN, Spain
- Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Complex Systems (UBICS), Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, BCN, Spain
| | - Martín G Ravetti
- Departamento de Ciência da Computação, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
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111
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Yezli S, Khan AH, Yassin YM, Khan AA, Alotaibi BM, Bouchama A. Association of Ambient Temperature with Mortality in Resident and Multiethnic Transient Populations in a Desert Climate, 2006-2014. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:47004. [PMID: 37018010 PMCID: PMC10075304 DOI: 10.1289/ehp9838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although the association between ambient temperature and mortality in local populations is evident, this relationship remains unclear in transient populations (e.g., due to immigration, mass gatherings, or displacement). The holy city of Mecca annually shelters two populations comprising its residents and the transitory Hajj pilgrims (>2 million people from >180 countries). Both live side by side in a hot desert climate, rendering the development of evidence-based heat-protective measures challenging. OBJECTIVES We aimed to characterize the ambient temperature-mortality relationship and burden for the Mecca resident and Hajj transient populations, which have distinct levels of adaptation to ambient temperature. METHODS We analyzed daily air temperature and mortality data for Mecca residents and pilgrims over nine Hajj seasons between 2006 and 2014, using a fitted standard time-series Poisson model. We characterized the temperature-mortality relationship with a distributed lag nonlinear model with 10 d of lag. We determined the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and attributable deaths for heat and cold for the two populations. RESULTS The median average daily temperature during the Hajj seasons was 30°C (19°C-37°C). There were 8,543 and 10,457 nonaccidental deaths reported during the study period among Mecca residents and pilgrims, respectively. The MMT was 2.5°C lower for pilgrims in comparison with the MMT for Mecca residents (23.5°C vs. 26.0°C). The temperature-mortality relationship shape varied from inverted J to U shape for the Mecca and pilgrim populations, respectively. Neither hot nor cold temperatures had a statistically significant association with mortality in Mecca residents. In contrast, for pilgrims, elevated temperatures were associated with significantly high attributable mortality of 70.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 62.8, 76.0]. The effect of heat on pilgrims was immediate and sustained. DISCUSSION Our findings indicate that pilgrims and Mecca residents exposed to the same hot environmental conditions exhibited distinct health outcomes. This conclusion suggests that a precision public health approach may be warranted to protect against high environmental temperature during mass gatherings of diverse populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9838.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saber Yezli
- Global Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Scientific Computing Department, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Experimental Medicine Department, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Altaf H. Khan
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Yara M. Yassin
- Global Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Anas A. Khan
- Global Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Badriah M. Alotaibi
- Global Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abderrezak Bouchama
- Experimental Medicine Department, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
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112
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Pascal M, Wagner V, Corso M. Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:725-734. [PMID: 36930363 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02451-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. METHOD A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. RESULTS The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970-2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. DISCUSSION Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, St Maurice, France.
| | - Vérène Wagner
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, St Maurice, France
| | - Magali Corso
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, St Maurice, France
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113
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Damonti L, Atkinson A, Fontannaz L, Burnham JP, Jent P, Troillet N, Widmer A, Marschall J. Influence of environmental temperature and heatwaves on surgical site infection after hip and knee arthroplasty: a nationwide study. J Hosp Infect 2023; 135:125-131. [PMID: 36996907 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2023.03.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Revised: 03/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/18/2023] [Indexed: 04/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies reported higher incidence of surgical site infection (SSI) after procedures performed in summer or with high temperatures. However, no study used detailed climate data to assess this risk after hip and knee arthroplasty, and no study specifically investigated the role of heatwaves. AIM To assess the impact of higher environmental temperatures and heatwaves on SSI rates after hip and knee arthroplasty. METHODS Data on hip and knee arthroplasty procedures performed between 01/2013 - 09/2019 in hospitals participating in the Swiss SSI surveillance were linked to climate data extracted from weather stations located in their vicinity. The association between temperature, heatwaves and SSI was studied using mixed effects logistic regression models fitted at the patient level. Poisson mixed models were fitted for both calendar year and month of the year to investigate the SSI incidence trajectory over time. RESULTS We included 116,981 procedures performed in 122 hospitals. Significantly higher SSI rates were observed for procedures performed in the summertime (incidence rate ratio 1.39, 95% CI [1.20-1.60], p<0.001; reference: autumn) or in calendar months in which the mean temperature was above 20°C (reference 05-10°C; odds ratio 1.59, 95% CI [1.27, 1.98] p<0.001). We observed a slight but non-significant increase in the rate of SSI during heatwaves (1.44% versus 1.01%, p=0.2). CONCLUSION SSI rates after hip and knee replacement appear to increase with higher environmental temperature. To establish if, and to what extent, heatwaves increase the risk of SSI, studies involving geographical areas with larger variability in temperature are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauro Damonti
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
| | - Andrew Atkinson
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Lionel Fontannaz
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Jason P Burnham
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, U.S
| | - Philipp Jent
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Nicolas Troillet
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Central Institute, Valais Hospital, Sion, Switzerland
| | - Andreas Widmer
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University of Basel Hospitals and Clinics, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Jonas Marschall
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Division of Infectious Diseases, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, U.S
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114
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Zheng Z. Tracing production carbon emission transfer through global value chains: Towards a top gainer principle. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 866:161316. [PMID: 36599379 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This study proposes the top gainer principle (TGP) and builds a calculation model based on the TGP to measure production carbon emissions transfer (PCET) in the context of global value chains. Compared with embodied carbon research, the innovative TGP model establishes a traceability mechanism based on the difference between responsibility and actual emissions from the perspective of the value chain, avoiding the endless debate between producer and consumer responsibility, which makes the TGP model more reasonable and fairer. In addition, using long-term input-output data, this study measures spatiotemporal patterns and the network evolution of global PCET. The results show that the total amount of global PCET has increased, and the regions with high outflows of PCET mainly include East Asia, North America, Central and Western Europe, and Russia. Among these regions, the United States and China accounted for the largest proportion of PCET outflow. By contrast, South America and Africa are typical low-outflow regions. From North America via central Europe, Turkey, Iran, South Asia to China, is a "W"-shaped high net outflow belt. The overall concentration of the global PCET network first decreased and then increased, and the network structure evolved into a bipolar network group with China and the United States as the core. Under the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, the network structure showed a trend towards decentralization. This study suggests that efforts should be made to strengthen the responsibility of major countries, enhance the supervision of lead firms, establish a carbon emission transfer compensation system within value chains, and promote the development and spread of carbon emission reduction technologies to facilitate the reduction of global carbon emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhi Zheng
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China.
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115
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Ryan SJ, Lippi CA, Villena OC, Singh A, Murdock CC, Johnson LR. Mapping current and future thermal limits to suitability for malaria transmission by the invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi. Malar J 2023; 22:104. [PMID: 36945014 PMCID: PMC10029218 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04531-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 03/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Anopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk. METHODS In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi were created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations. RESULTS Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission potential. CONCLUSIONS Understanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadie J Ryan
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
| | - Catherine A Lippi
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Oswaldo C Villena
- The Earth Commons Institute, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, 20007, USA
| | - Aspen Singh
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Courtney C Murdock
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
- Computational Modeling and Data Analytics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
- Department of Biology, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
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116
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Duan H, Ming X, Zhang XB, Sterner T, Wang S. China's adaptive response to climate change through air-conditioning. iScience 2023; 26:106178. [PMID: 36895654 PMCID: PMC9988677 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Studies have shown that the soaring demand for air conditioners in recent years is closely related to the worsening global warming; however, little evidence has been provided for China. This study uses weekly data of 343 Chinese cities to investigate how air conditioner sales respond to climate variability. We detected a U-shaped relationship between air-conditioning and temperature. An additional day with average temperature above 30°C increases weekly sales by 16.2%. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the adoption of air-conditioning is different for south and north China. By combining our estimates with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, we project China's mid-century air conditioner sales and the resulting electricity demand. Under the fossil-fueled development scenario, air conditioner sales in the Pearl River Delta would rise by 71% (65.7%-87.6%) in summer. On average, the per capita electricity demand for air-conditioning will surge by 28% (23.2%-35.4%) in China by mid-century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongbo Duan
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | - Xi Ming
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | - Xiao-Bing Zhang
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Thomas Sterner
- Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Shouyang Wang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.,School of Entrepreneurship and Management, ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai 201210, China
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117
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Ragettli MS, Saucy A, Flückiger B, Vienneau D, de Hoogh K, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Schindler C, Röösli M. Explorative Assessment of the Temperature-Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4958. [PMID: 36981871 PMCID: PMC10049426 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20064958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Revised: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Defining health-based thresholds for effective heat warnings is crucial for climate change adaptation strategies. Translating the non-linear function between heat and health effects into an effective threshold for heat warnings to protect the population is a challenge. We present a systematic analysis of heat indicators in relation to mortality. We applied distributed lag non-linear models in an individual-level case-crossover design to assess the effects of heat on mortality in Switzerland during the warm season from 2003 to 2016 for three temperature metrics (daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature), and various threshold temperatures and heatwave definitions. Individual death records with information on residential address from the Swiss National Cohort were linked to high-resolution temperature estimates from 100 m resolution maps. Moderate (90th percentile) to extreme thresholds (99.5th percentile) of the three temperature metrics implied a significant increase in mortality (5 to 38%) in respect of the median warm-season temperature. Effects of the threshold temperatures on mortality were similar across the seven major regions in Switzerland. Heatwave duration did not modify the effect when considering delayed effects up to 7 days. This nationally representative study, accounting for small-scale exposure variability, suggests that the national heat-warning system should focus on heatwave intensity rather than duration. While a different heat-warning indicator may be appropriate in other countries, our evaluation framework is transferable to any country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Apolline Saucy
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), 08003 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Benjamin Flückiger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Danielle Vienneau
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Christian Schindler
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martin Röösli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
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118
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurelio Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan,
| | - Dominic Royé
- Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain, Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
| | - Carmen Iñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain, Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
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119
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Heat and health inequity: acting on determinants of health to promote heat justice. Nat Rev Nephrol 2023; 19:143-144. [PMID: 36670274 DOI: 10.1038/s41581-023-00679-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
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120
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Zhang Y, Ebelt ST, Shi L, Scovronick NC, D'Souza RR, Steenland K, Chang HH. Short-term associations between warm-season ambient temperature and emergency department visits for Alzheimer's disease and related dementia in five US states. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 220:115176. [PMID: 36584844 PMCID: PMC9898200 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.115176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Revised: 11/30/2022] [Accepted: 12/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ambient temperatures are projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Alzheimer's disease-related dementia (ADRD) affect millions of individuals and represent substantial health burdens in the US. High temperature may be a risk factor for AD/ADRD outcomes with several recent studies reporting associations between temperature and AD mortality. However, the link between heat and AD morbidity is poorly understood. METHODS We examined short-term associations between warm-season daily ambient temperature and AD/ADRD emergency department (ED) visits for individuals aged 45 years or above during the warm season (May to October) for up to 14 years (2005-2018) in five US states: California, Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, and New York. Daily ZIP code-level maximum, average and minimum temperature exposures were derived from 1 km gridded Daymet products. Associations are assessed using a time-stratified case-crossover design using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS We found consistent positive short-term effects of ambient temperature among 3.4 million AD/ADRD ED visits across five states. An increase of the 3-day cumulative temperature exposure of daily average temperature from the 50th to the 95th percentile was associated with a pooled odds ratio of 1.042 (95% CI: 1.034, 1.051) for AD/ADRD ED visits. We observed evidence of the association being stronger for patients 65-74 years of age and for ED visits that led to hospital admissions. Temperature associations were also stronger among AD/ADRD ED visits compared to ED visits for other reasons, particularly among patients aged 65-74 years. CONCLUSION People with AD/ADRD may represent a vulnerable population affected by short-term exposure to high temperature. Our results support the development of targeted strategies to reduce heat-related AD/ADRD morbidity in the context of global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuzi Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Stefanie T Ebelt
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Noah C Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Rohan R D'Souza
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Kyle Steenland
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Howard H Chang
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Stowell JD, Sun Y, Spangler KR, Milando CW, Bernstein A, Weinberger KR, Sun S, Wellenius GA. Warm-season temperatures and emergency department visits among children with health insurance. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, HEALTH : ERH 2023; 1:015002. [PMID: 36337257 PMCID: PMC9623446 DOI: 10.1088/2752-5309/ac78fa] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2022] [Revised: 05/17/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
High ambient temperatures have become more likely due to climate change and are linked to higher rates of heat-related illness, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, mental health disorders, and other diseases. To date, far fewer studies have examined the effects of high temperatures on children versus adults, and studies including children have seldom been conducted on a national scale. Compared to adults, children have behavioral and physiological differences that may give them differential heat vulnerability. We acquired medical claims data from a large database of commercially insured US children aged 0-17 from May to September (warm-season) 2016-2019. Daily maximum ambient temperature and daily mean relative humidity estimates were aggregated to the county level using the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes dataset, and extreme heat was defined as the 95th percentile of the county-specific daily maximum temperature distribution. Using a case-crossover design and temperature lags 0-5 days, we estimated the associations between extreme heat and cause-specific emergency department visits (ED) in children aged <18 years, using the median county-specific daily maximum temperature distribution as the reference. Approximately 1.2 million ED visits in children from 2489 US counties were available during the study period. The 95th percentile of warm-season temperatures ranged from 71 °F to 112 °F (21.7 °C to 44.4 °C). Comparing 95th to the 50th percentile, extreme heat was associated with higher rates of ED visits for heat-related illness; endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases; and otitis media and externa, but not for all-cause admissions. Subgroup analyses suggested differences by age, with extreme heat positively associated with heat-related illness for both the 6-12 year (odds ratio [OR]: 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16, 1.56) and 13-17 year age groups (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.37, 1.76). Among children with health insurance across the US, days of extreme heat were associated with higher rates of healthcare utilization. These results highlight the importance of individual and population-level actions to protect children and adolescents from extreme heat, particularly in the context of continued climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer D Stowell
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Yuantong Sun
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Keith R Spangler
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Chad W Milando
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
- Optum Labs Visiting Scholar, Eden Prairie, MN, United States of America
| | - Aaron Bernstein
- Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Kate R Weinberger
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Shengzhi Sun
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
- Optum Labs Visiting Scholar, Eden Prairie, MN, United States of America
| | - Gregory A Wellenius
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
- Optum Labs Visiting Scholar, Eden Prairie, MN, United States of America
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Koch S, Klitzman R. Reliance on fossil fuels: ethical implications for intensivists. Intensive Care Med 2023; 49:330-333. [PMID: 36811637 PMCID: PMC9944793 DOI: 10.1007/s00134-023-06994-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Susanne Koch
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Operative Intensive Care Medicine, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Campus Charité Mitte and Virchow-Klinikum, Augustenburger Platz 1, 13353, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Robert Klitzman
- Columbia University New York, Joseph Mailman School of Public Health, Master of Bioethics Program, New York, USA
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Röthlisberger M, Papritz L. Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale. NATURE GEOSCIENCE 2023; 16:210-216. [PMID: 36920151 PMCID: PMC10005943 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01126-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves are among the deadliest climate hazards. Yet the relative importance of the physical processes causing their near-surface temperature anomalies (𝑇')-advection of air from climatologically warmer regions, adiabatic warming in subsiding air and diabatic heating-is still a matter of debate. Here we quantify the importance of these processes by evaluating the 𝑇' budget along air-parcel backward trajectories. We first show that the extreme near-surface 𝑇' during the June 2021 heat wave in western North America was produced primarily by diabatic heating and, to a smaller extent, by adiabatic warming. Systematically decomposing 𝑇' during the hottest days of each year (TX1day events) in 1979-2020 globally, we find strong geographical variations with a dominance of advection over mid-latitude oceans, adiabatic warming near mountain ranges and diabatic heating over tropical and subtropical land masses. In many regions, however, TX1day events arise from a combination of these processes. In the global mean, TX1day anomalies form along trajectories over roughly 60 h and 1,000 km, although with large regional variability. This study thus reveals inherently non-local and regionally distinct formation pathways of hot extremes, quantifies the crucial factors determining their magnitude and enables new quantitative ways of climate model evaluation regarding hot extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lukas Papritz
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
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Nikolaou N, Dallavalle M, Stafoggia M, Bouwer LM, Peters A, Chen K, Wolf K, Schneider A. High-resolution spatiotemporal modeling of daily near-surface air temperature in Germany over the period 2000-2020. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 219:115062. [PMID: 36535393 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.115062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2022] [Revised: 12/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (Tair), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of Tair data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) Tair and diurnal Tair range during 2000-2020. We used weather station Tair observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate Tair from cells with both Tair and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict Tair for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated Tair values to obtain Tair countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the Tmean model (0.71 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual Tmean averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader Tair variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide Tair at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolaos Nikolaou
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
| | - Marco Dallavalle
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - Laurens M Bouwer
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kathrin Wolf
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
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Shrikhande SS, Pedder H, Röösli M, Dalvie MA, Lakshmanasamy R, Gasparrini A, Utzinger J, Cissé G. Non-optimal apparent temperature and cardiovascular mortality: the association in Puducherry, India between 2011 and 2020. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:291. [PMID: 36755271 PMCID: PMC9909923 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15128-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2023] [Indexed: 02/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the leading cause of death worldwide, are sensitive to temperature. In light of the reported climate change trends, it is important to understand the burden of CVDs attributable to temperature, both hot and cold. The association between CVDs and temperature is region-specific, with relatively few studies focusing on low-and middle-income countries. This study investigates this association in Puducherry, a district in southern India lying on the Bay of Bengal, for the first time. METHODS Using in-hospital CVD mortality data and climate data from the Indian Meteorological Department, we analyzed the association between apparent temperature (Tapp) and in-hospital CVD mortalities in Puducherry between 2011 and 2020. We used a case-crossover model with a binomial likelihood distribution combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to capture the delayed and non-linear trends over a 21-day lag period to identify the optimal temperature range for Puducherry. The results are expressed as the fraction of CVD mortalities attributable to heat and cold, defined relative to the optimal temperature. We also performed stratified analyses to explore the associations between Tapp and age-and-sex, grouped and considered together, and different types of CVDs. Sensitivity analyses were performed, including using a quasi-Poisson time-series approach. RESULTS We found that the optimal temperature range for Puducherry is between 30°C and 36°C with respect to CVDs. Both cold and hot non-optimal Tapp were associated with an increased risk of overall in-hospital CVD mortalities, resulting in a U-shaped association curve. Cumulatively, up to 17% of the CVD deaths could be attributable to non-optimal temperatures, with a slightly higher burden attributable to heat (9.1%) than cold (8.3%). We also found that males were more vulnerable to colder temperature; females above 60 years were more vulnerable to heat while females below 60 years were affected by both heat and cold. Mortality with cerebrovascular accidents was associated more with heat compared to cold, while ischemic heart diseases did not seem to be affected by temperature. CONCLUSION Both heat and cold contribute to the burden of CVDs attributable to non-optimal temperatures in the tropical Puducherry. Our study also identified the age-and-sex and CVD type differences in temperature attributable CVD mortalities. Further studies from India could identify regional associations, inform our understanding of the health implications of climate change in India and enhance the development of regional and contextual climate-health action-plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shreya S Shrikhande
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, CH-4123, Allschwil, Switzerland.
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Hugo Pedder
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Martin Röösli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, CH-4123, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Mohammad Aqiel Dalvie
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Centre for Environmental and Occupational Health Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ravivarman Lakshmanasamy
- State Surveillance Officer, Department of Health and Family Welfare Services, Govt. of Puducherry, Puducherry, India
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre On Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jürg Utzinger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, CH-4123, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Guéladio Cissé
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, CH-4123, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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Phung VLH, Oka K, Honda Y, Hijioka Y, Ueda K, Seposo XT, Sahani M, Wan Mahiyuddin WR, Kim Y. Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 218:114988. [PMID: 36463996 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2022] [Revised: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions. METHODS We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region. RESULTS Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant. CONCLUSION This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vera Ling Hui Phung
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
| | - Kazutaka Oka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yasuaki Hijioka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Kayo Ueda
- Department of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan; Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Xerxes Tesoro Seposo
- Department of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Mazrura Sahani
- Center for Toxicology and Health Risk Studies, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan, Malaysia
| | - Wan Rozita Wan Mahiyuddin
- Environmental Health Research Center, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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Back Y, Kumar P, Bach PM, Rauch W, Kleidorfer M. Integrating CFD-GIS modelling to refine urban heat and thermal comfort assessment. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 858:159729. [PMID: 36309253 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Revised: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Constant urban growth exacerbates the demand for residential, commercial and traffic areas, leading to progressive surface sealing and urban densification. With climate change altering precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide, cities are exposed to multiple risks, demanding holistic and anticipatory urban planning strategies and adaptive measures that are multi-beneficial. Sustainable urban planning requires comprehensive tools that account for different aspects and boundary conditions and are capable of mapping and assessing crucial processes of land-atmosphere interactions and the impacts of adaptation measures on the urban climate system. Here, we combine Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities to refine an existing 2D urban micro- and bioclimatic modelling approach. In particular, we account for the vertical and horizontal variability in wind speed and air temperature patterns in the urban canopy layer. Our results highlight the importance of variability of these patterns in analysing urban heat development, intensity and thermal comfort at multiple heights from the ground surface. Neglecting vertical and horizontal variability, non-integrated CFD modelling underestimates mean land surface temperature by 7.8 °C and the Universal Thermal Climate Index by 6.9 °C compared to CFD-integrated modelling. Due to the strong implications of wind and air temperature patterns on the relationship between surface temperature and human thermal comfort, we urge caution when relying on studies solely based on surface temperatures for urban heat assessment and hot spot analysis as this could lead to misinterpretations of hot and cool spots in cities and, thus, mask the anticipated effects of adaptation measures. The integrated CFD-GIS modelling approach, which we demonstrate, improves urban climate studies and supports more comprehensive assessments of urban heat and human thermal comfort to sustainably develop resilient cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yannick Back
- Unit of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Prashant Kumar
- Unit of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Peter M Bach
- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science & Technology (Eawag), Überlandstrasse 133, 8600 Dübendorf, ZH, Switzerland; Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zürich, Zürich 8093, Switzerland
| | - Wolfgang Rauch
- Unit of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Manfred Kleidorfer
- Unit of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
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Whitmee S, Anton B, Haines A. Accountability for carbon emissions and health equity. Bull World Health Organ 2023; 101:83-83A. [PMID: 36733626 PMCID: PMC9874368 DOI: 10.2471/blt.22.289452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Whitmee
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WCIE 7HT, England
| | - Blanca Anton
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WCIE 7HT, England
| | - Andy Haines
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WCIE 7HT, England
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129
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Carney TD, Hebalkar RY, Edeleva E, Çiçek IÖ, Shcherbata HR. Signaling through the dystrophin glycoprotein complex affects the stress-dependent transcriptome in Drosophila. Dis Model Mech 2023; 16:286223. [PMID: 36594281 PMCID: PMC9922874 DOI: 10.1242/dmm.049862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Deficiencies in the human dystrophin glycoprotein complex (DGC), which links the extracellular matrix with the intracellular cytoskeleton, cause muscular dystrophies, a group of incurable disorders associated with heterogeneous muscle, brain and eye abnormalities. Stresses such as nutrient deprivation and aging cause muscle wasting, which can be exacerbated by reduced levels of the DGC in membranes, the integrity of which is vital for muscle health and function. Moreover, the DGC operates in multiple signaling pathways, demonstrating an important function in gene expression regulation. To advance disease diagnostics and treatment strategies, we strive to understand the genetic pathways that are perturbed by DGC mutations. Here, we utilized a Drosophila model to investigate the transcriptomic changes in mutants of four DGC components under temperature and metabolic stress. We identified DGC-dependent genes, stress-dependent genes and genes dependent on the DGC for a proper stress response, confirming a novel function of the DGC in stress-response signaling. This perspective yields new insights into the etiology of muscular dystrophy symptoms, possible treatment directions and a better understanding of DGC signaling and regulation under normal and stress conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Travis D. Carney
- Hannover Medical School, Research Group Gene Expression and Signaling, Institute of Cell Biochemistry, Hannover 30625, Germany,Mount Desert Island Biological Laboratory, Bar Harbor, ME 04609, USA
| | - Rucha Y. Hebalkar
- Hannover Medical School, Research Group Gene Expression and Signaling, Institute of Cell Biochemistry, Hannover 30625, Germany
| | | | | | - Halyna R. Shcherbata
- Hannover Medical School, Research Group Gene Expression and Signaling, Institute of Cell Biochemistry, Hannover 30625, Germany,Mount Desert Island Biological Laboratory, Bar Harbor, ME 04609, USA,Author for correspondence ()
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130
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Irvine KN, Suwanarit A, Likitswat F, Srilertchaipanij H, Sahavacharin A, Wongwatcharapaiboon J, Boonkam P, Ingegno M, Janpathompong S. Nature-based solutions to enhance urban flood resiliency: case study of a Thailand Smart District. SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 2023; 9:43. [PMID: 36743585 PMCID: PMC9885410 DOI: 10.1007/s40899-023-00821-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
A Research through Designing approach was used to explore nature-based solutions (NbS) for flood management at the fluvial (regional) and pluvial (local) scales as part of a Smart District visioning study in a peri-urban area north of Bangkok, Thailand. The NbS visions were informed by community surveys (total n = 770) as well as in-depth, semi-structured interviews with community leaders and key stakeholders representing private sector business. Both fluvial and pluvial flooding commonly occur in the study area and the cost of damage incurred by individuals generally exceeds aid remuneration. The surveys revealed that flood insurance was not widely used as a form of resiliency to flood conditions. Furthermore, survey participants generally considered common space and green space unsatisfactory and inadequate to meet community needs. In light of these survey responses, example NbS visions were developed to address community concerns and promote well-being, while concurrently providing resiliency and improved ecosystem services through connectivity of blue and greenscapes. This case study provides a novel linkage between the concepts of NbS, Research through Designing, and Smart City/District, in exploring sustainable and resilient approaches to flood management in the context of tropical, Global South development and also provides a first step towards developing an NbS typology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim Neil Irvine
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Asan Suwanarit
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Fa Likitswat
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Hansa Srilertchaipanij
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Alisa Sahavacharin
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Jitiporn Wongwatcharapaiboon
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Pranisa Boonkam
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Massimo Ingegno
- Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Rangsit Campus, Khlong Luang, 12121 Pathum Thani Thailand
| | - Shusak Janpathompong
- Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330 Thailand
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Giannaros C, Agathangelidis I, Papavasileiou G, Galanaki E, Kotroni V, Lagouvardos K, Giannaros TM, Cartalis C, Matzarakis A. The extreme heat wave of July-August 2021 in the Athens urban area (Greece): Atmospheric and human-biometeorological analysis exploiting ultra-high resolution numerical modeling and the local climate zone framework. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 857:159300. [PMID: 36216066 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Revised: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Greece was affected by a prolonged and extreme heat wave (HW) event (July 28-August 05) during the abnormally hot summer of 2021, with the maximum temperature in Athens, the capital of the country, reaching up to 43.9 °C in the city center. This observation corresponds to the second highest maximum temperature recorded since 1900, based on the historical temperature time series of the National Observatory of Athens weather station at Thissio. In the present study, a multi-scale numerical modeling system is used to analyze the urban climate and thermal bioclimate in the Athens urban area (AUA) in the course of the HW event, as well as during 3 days prior to the heat wave and 3 days after the episode. The system consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, the advanced urban scheme BEP/BEM (Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model) and the human-biometeorological model RayMan Pro, and incorporates the local climate zone (LCZ) classification scheme. The system's validation results demonstrated a robust modeling set-up, characterized by high capability in capturing the observed magnitude and diurnal variation of the urban meteorological and heat stress conditions. The analysis of two- and three-dimensional fields of near-surface air temperature, humidity and wind unraveled the interplay of geographical factors (surface relief and proximity to the sea), background atmospheric circulations (Etesians and sea breeze) and HW-related synoptic forcing with the AUA's urban form. These interactions had a significant impact on the LCZs heat stress responsiveness, expressed using the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), between different regions of the study area, as well as at inter- and intra-LCZ level (statistically significant differences at 95 % confidence interval), providing thus, urban design and health-related implications that can be exploited in human thermal discomfort mitigation strategies in AUA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christos Giannaros
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236 Athens, Greece.
| | - Ilias Agathangelidis
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784 Athens, Greece
| | - Georgios Papavasileiou
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236 Athens, Greece
| | - Elissavet Galanaki
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236 Athens, Greece
| | - Vassiliki Kotroni
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236 Athens, Greece
| | - Konstantinos Lagouvardos
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236 Athens, Greece
| | - Theodore M Giannaros
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236 Athens, Greece
| | - Constantinos Cartalis
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784 Athens, Greece
| | - Andreas Matzarakis
- German Meteorological Service (DWD), Research Centre Human Biometeorology, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany; University of Freiburg, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, D-79104, Germany
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Ordanovich D, Tobías A, Ramiro D. Temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association in Spain: a nationwide analysis. Environ Health 2023; 22:5. [PMID: 36635705 PMCID: PMC9838025 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00957-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although adaptation to continuously rising ambient temperatures is an emerging topic and has been widely studied at a global scale, detailed analysis of the joint indicators for long-term adaptation in Spain are scarce. This study aims to explore temporal variations of the minimum mortality temperature and mortality burden from heat and cold between 1979 and 2018. METHODS We collected individual all-cause mortality and climate reanalysis data for 4 decades at a daily time step. To estimate the temperature-mortality association for each decade, we fitted a quasi-Poisson time-series regression model using a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, controlling for trends and day of the week. We also calculated attributable mortality fractions by age and sex for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponds to the minimum mortality in each period. RESULTS We analysed over 14 million deaths registered in Spain between 1979 and 2018. The optimum temperature estimated at a nationwide scale declined from 21 °C in 1979-1988 to 16 °C in 1999-2008, and raised to 18 °C in 2009-2018. The mortality burden from moderate cold showed a 3-fold reduction down to 2.4% in 2009-2018. Since 1988-1999, the mortality risk attributable to moderate (extreme) heat reduced from 0.9% (0.8%) to 0.6% (0.5%). The mortality risk due to heat in women was almost 2 times larger than in men, and did not decrease over time. CONCLUSION Despite the progressively warmer temperatures in Spain, we observed a persistent flattening of the exposure-response curves, which marked an expansion of the uncertainty range of the optimal temperatures. Adaptation has been produced to some extent in a non-uniform manner with a substantial decrease in cold-related mortality, while for heat it became more apparent in the most recent decade only.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dariya Ordanovich
- Institute of Economy, Geography y Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.
| | - Aurelio Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Diego Ramiro
- Institute of Economy, Geography y Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
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Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Royé D, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Guo Y, Papatheodorou SI, Achilleos S, Acquaotta F, Armstrong B, Bell ML, Pan SC, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Colistro V, Dang TN, Van Dung D, De’ Donato FK, Entezari A, Guo YLL, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Indermitte E, Íñiguez C, Jaakkola JJ, Kim H, Lavigne E, Lee W, Li S, Madureira J, Mayvaneh F, Orru H, Overcenco A, Ragettli MS, Ryti NR, Saldiva PHN, Scovronick N, Seposo X, Sera F, Silva SP, Stafoggia M, Tobias A, Garshick E, Bernstein AS, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Gasparrini A, Koutrakis P. Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries. Circulation 2023; 147:35-46. [PMID: 36503273 PMCID: PMC9794133 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.122.061832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 67.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/29/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barrak Alahmad
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, Kuwait City (B.Alahmad)
| | - Haitham Khraishah
- Cardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.Khraishah)
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain (D.R.)
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V-C.)
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland (A.M.V-C.)
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.M.V-C., B.Armstrong), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G., S.L.)
| | | | - Souzana Achilleos
- School of Health Sciences, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol (S.A.)
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Cyprus (S.A.)
| | | | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.M.V-C., B.Armstrong), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B., W.L.)
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan (S-C.P., Y-L.L.G.)
| | | | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay (V.C.)
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (T.N.D., D.V.D.)
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (T.N.D., D.V.D.)
| | | | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (A.E., F.M.)
| | - Yue-Liang Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan (S-C.P., Y-L.L.G.)
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Japan (M.H.)
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (Y.H.)
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Estonia (E.I., H.O.)
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain (D.R., C.Í.)
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, Spain (C.Í.)
| | - Jouni J.K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
- Medical Research Center Oulu (J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
- Biocenter Oulu (N.R.I.R., J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, South Korea (H.Kim)
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.)
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B., W.L.)
- School of Biomedical Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea (W.L.)
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G., S.L.)
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (S.L.)
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal (J.M.)
- Epidemiology Research Unit (EPIUnit) (J.M.), Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
- Laboratory for Integrative and Translational Research in Population Health (J.M.), Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (A.E., F.M.)
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Estonia (E.I., H.O.)
| | - Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Moldova (A.O.)
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (M.S.R.), Switzerland
- University of Basel (M.S.R.), Switzerland
| | - Niilo R.I. Ryti
- Biocenter Oulu (N.R.I.R., J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
| | | | - Noah Scovronick
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (N.S.)
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan (X.S., A.T.)
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.)
| | - Susana Pereira Silva
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal (S.P.S.)
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy (F.K.D’D., M.S.)
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan (X.S., A.T.)
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona (A.T.)
| | - Eric Garshick
- Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.)
- Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital (E.G.), Harvard Medical School, MA
| | - Aaron S. Bernstein
- Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment (A.S.B.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
- Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children’s Hospital (A.S.B.), Harvard Medical School, MA
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Centre for Statistical Methodology (A.G.), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health (A.G.), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Petros Koutrakis
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
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Neira M, Erguler K, Ahmady-Birgani H, Al-Hmoud ND, Fears R, Gogos C, Hobbhahn N, Koliou M, Kostrikis LG, Lelieveld J, Majeed A, Paz S, Rudich Y, Saad-Hussein A, Shaheen M, Tobias A, Christophides G. Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 216:114537. [PMID: 36273599 PMCID: PMC9729515 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Revised: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Neira
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | | | - Robin Fears
- European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), Halle (Saale), Germany
| | | | - Nina Hobbhahn
- European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Maria Koliou
- University of Cyprus Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Leondios G Kostrikis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus; Cyprus Academy of Sciences, Letters, and Arts, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Yinon Rudich
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Weismann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Amal Saad-Hussein
- Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mohammed Shaheen
- Damour for Community Development - Research Department, Palestine
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - George Christophides
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
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135
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Muresanu DF, Sharma A, Tian ZR, Lafuente JV, Nozari A, Feng L, Buzoianu AD, Wiklund L, Sharma HS. Nanowired Delivery of Cerebrolysin with Mesenchymal Stem Cells Attenuates Heat Stress-Induced Exacerbation of Neuropathology Following Brain Blast Injury. ADVANCES IN NEUROBIOLOGY 2023; 32:231-270. [PMID: 37480463 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-32997-5_6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/24/2023]
Abstract
Blast brain injury (bBI) following explosive detonations in warfare is one of the prominent causes of multidimensional insults to the central nervous and other vital organs injury. Several military personnel suffered from bBI during the Middle East conflict at hot environment. The bBI largely occurs due to pressure waves, generation of heat together with release of shrapnel and gun powders explosion with penetrating and/or impact head trauma causing multiple brain damage. As a result, bBI-induced secondary injury causes breakdown of the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and edema formation that further results in neuronal, glial and axonal injuries. Previously, we reported endocrine imbalance and influence of diabetes on bBI-induced brain pathology that was significantly attenuated by nanowired delivery of cerebrolysin in model experiments. Cerebrolysin is a balanced composition of several neurotrophic factors, and active peptide fragment is capable of neuroprotection in several neurological insults. Exposure to heat stress alone causes BBB damage, edema formation and brain pathology. Thus, it is quite likely that hot environment further exacerbates the consequences of bBI. Thus, novel therapeutic strategies using nanodelivery of stem cell and cerebrolysin may further enhance superior neuroprotection in bBI at hot environment. Our observations are the first to show that combined nanowired delivery of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and cerebrolysin significantly attenuated exacerbation of bBI in hot environment and induced superior neuroprotection, not reported earlier. The possible mechanisms of neuroprotection with MSCs and cerebrolysin in bBI are discussed in the light of current literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dafin F Muresanu
- Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Medicine & Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- "RoNeuro" Institute for Neurological Research and Diagnostic, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Aruna Sharma
- International Experimental Central Nervous System Injury & Repair (IECNSIR), Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology & Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Z Ryan Tian
- Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - José Vicente Lafuente
- LaNCE, Department of Neuroscience, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
| | - Ala Nozari
- Anesthesiology & Intensive Care, Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Lianyuan Feng
- Department of Neurology, Bethune International Peace Hospital, Zhongshan, Hebei Province, China
| | - Anca D Buzoianu
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology, "Iuliu Hatieganu" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Lars Wiklund
- International Experimental Central Nervous System Injury & Repair (IECNSIR), Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology & Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Hari Shanker Sharma
- International Experimental Central Nervous System Injury & Repair (IECNSIR), Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology & Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
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136
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de Moura FR, da Silva Júnior FMR. 2030 Agenda: discussion on Brazilian priorities facing air pollution and climate change challenges. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:8376-8390. [PMID: 36481854 PMCID: PMC9734578 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-24601-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The advance of human activities in a disorderly way has accelerated in recent decades, intensifying the environmental impacts directly linked to these practices. The atmosphere, essential for the maintenance of life, is increasingly saturated with pollutants, offering risks to practically all the inhabitants of the planet, a process that, in addition to causing illness and early mortality, is related to serious financial losses (including in the production of goods), dangerous temperature increase and severe natural disasters. Although this perception is not recent, the global initiative to control the different mechanisms that trigger the commitment of biodiversity and irreversible climate changes arising from pollution is still very incipient, given that global initiatives on the subject emerged just over 50 years ago. Brazil is a territory that centralizes many of these discussions, as it still faces both political and economic obstacles in achieving a sustainable growth model as it was agreed through the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Even though there is little time left for the completion of these goals, much remains to be done, and despite the fulfillment of this deadline, the works will certainly need to be extended for much longer until an effective reorientation of consciousness occurs. Scientific researches and discussions are fundamental tools to the understanding of issues still little explored in this field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Rafael de Moura
- LEFT - Laboratório de Ensaios Farmacológicos e Toxicológicos, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande - FURG, Av. Itália, Km 8, Campus Carreiros, Rio Grande, RS, CEP 96203-900, Brazil
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande - FURG, Rua Visconde de Paranaguá, 102, Rio Grande, RS, CEP 96203-900, Brazil
| | - Flavio Manoel Rodrigues da Silva Júnior
- LEFT - Laboratório de Ensaios Farmacológicos e Toxicológicos, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande - FURG, Av. Itália, Km 8, Campus Carreiros, Rio Grande, RS, CEP 96203-900, Brazil.
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande - FURG, Rua Visconde de Paranaguá, 102, Rio Grande, RS, CEP 96203-900, Brazil.
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137
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Ramsay EE, Duffy GA, Burge K, Taruc RR, Fleming GM, Faber PA, Chown SL. Spatio-temporal development of the urban heat island in a socioeconomically diverse tropical city. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2023; 316:120443. [PMID: 36265725 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Revised: 10/05/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Urban heat islands, where temperatures are elevated relative to non-urban surrounds, are near-ubiquitous in cities globally. Yet, the magnitude and form of urban heat islands in the tropics, where heat has a large morbidity and mortality burden, is not well understood, especially for those of urban informal settlements. We used 29 years of Landsat satellite-derived surface temperature, corroborated by in situ temperature measurements, to provide a detailed spatial and temporal assessment of urban heat islands in Makassar, Indonesia, a city that is representative of rapidly growing urban settlements across the tropics. Our analysis identified surface urban heat islands of up to 9.2 °C in long-urbanised parts of the city and 6.3 °C in informal settlements, the seasonal patterns of which were driven by change in non-urban areas rather than in urban areas themselves. In recently urbanised areas, the majority of urban heat island increase occurred before land became 50% urbanised, whereas the established heat island in long-urbanised areas remained stable in response to urban expansion. Green and blue space protected some informal settlements from the worst urban heat islands observed across the city and maintenance of such space will be essential to mitigate the growing heat burden from urban expansion and anthropogenic climate change. Settlements further than 4 km from the coast and with Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) less than 0.2 had higher surface temperatures, with modelled effects of more than 5 °C. Surface temperature measurements were representative of in situ heat exposure, measured in a subset of 12 informal settlements, where mean indoor temperature had the strongest relationship with surface temperature (R2 = 0.413, P = 0.001). We advocate for green space to be prioritised in urban planning, redevelopment and informal settlement upgrading programs, with consideration of the unique environmental and socioeconomic context of tropical cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma E Ramsay
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria, 3800, Australia.
| | - Grant A Duffy
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria, 3800, Australia; Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Kerrie Burge
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Victoria, 3800, Australia
| | - Ruzka R Taruc
- RISE Program, Faculty of Public Health, Makassar, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia
| | - Genie M Fleming
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria, 3800, Australia
| | - Peter A Faber
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria, 3800, Australia
| | - Steven L Chown
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria, 3800, Australia
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Bühler JL, Shrikhande S, Kapwata T, Cissé G, Liang Y, Pedder H, Kwiatkowski M, Kunene Z, Mathee A, Peer N, Wright CY. The Association between Apparent Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Disease in Limpopo Province, South Africa. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 20:ijerph20010116. [PMID: 36612437 PMCID: PMC9820030 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20010116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Revised: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/16/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have a high disease burden both globally and in South Africa. They have also been found to be temperature-sensitive globally. The association between temperature and CVD morbidity has previously been demonstrated, but little is known about it in South Africa. It is important to understand how changes in temperature in South Africa will affect CVD morbidity, especially in rural regions, to inform public health interventions and adaptation strategies. This study aimed to determine the short-term effect of apparent temperature (Tapp) on CVD hospital admissions in Mopani District, Limpopo province, South Africa. A total of 3124 CVD hospital admissions records were obtained from two hospitals from 1 June 2009 to 31 December 2016. Daily Tapp was calculated using nearby weather station measurements. The association was modelled using a distributed lag non-linear model with a negative binomial regression over a 21-day lag period. The fraction of morbidity attributable to non-optimal Tapp, i.e., cold (6-25 °C) and warm (27-32 °C) Tapp was reported. We found an increase in the proportion of admissions due to CVDs for warm and cold Tapp cumulatively over 21 days. Increasing CVD admissions due to warm Tapp appeared immediately and lasted for two to four days, whereas the lag-structure for the cold effect was inconsistent. A proportion of 8.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.1%, 13.7%) and 1.1% (95% CI: -1.4%, 3.5%) of the total CVD admissions was attributable to cold and warm temperatures, respectively. Warm and cold Tapp may increase CVD admissions, suggesting that the healthcare system and community need to be prepared in the context of global temperature changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacqueline Lisa Bühler
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
- Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- Faculty of Science, University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Shreya Shrikhande
- Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- Faculty of Science, University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Thandi Kapwata
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
- Environmental Health Department, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
| | - Guéladio Cissé
- Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- Faculty of Science, University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yajun Liang
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hugo Pedder
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 2PS, UK
| | - Marek Kwiatkowski
- Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- Faculty of Science, University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Zamantimande Kunene
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
| | - Angela Mathee
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
- Environmental Health Department, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
| | - Nasheeta Peer
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban 4091, South Africa
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
| | - Caradee Y. Wright
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
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139
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[Hydroxysafflor yellow A attenuates heat stroke-induced acute lung injury in mice by inhibiting necroptosis]. NAN FANG YI KE DA XUE XUE BAO = JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN MEDICAL UNIVERSITY 2022; 42:1875-1881. [PMID: 36651257 PMCID: PMC9878420 DOI: 10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2022.12.17] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate the protective effect of hydroxysafflor yellow A (HSYA) against heat stroke (HS)-induced acute lung injury and its possible mechanism. METHODS The optimal dose of HSYA pretreatment via intraperitoneal injection prior to HS was determined in a mice by observing heat tolerance of the mice. C57BL/6J mice were pretreated with HSYA at the optimal dose or with Nec-1 (a RIP1 activation inhibitor) before HS, and the changes in core body temperature and survival of the mice were observed during the 72-h recovery period. At different stages of recovery, lung tissues, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and blood samples were collected from the mice for assessing lung tissue pathology, wet-to-dry weight ratio and water content of the lungs; leukocyte and neutrophil counts, total protein levels and HMGB1 level in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BLF) were also detected. Serum levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and HMGB1 were detected with ELISA, and the expression levels of RIP1, RIP3, MLKL-s358, MLKL and MLKL-s358 proteins in the lung tissues were detected using Western blotting. RESULTS HSYA pretreatment at the moderate and high doses significantly improved heat tolerance of the mice with comparable effects. At the optimal dose of 2.25 mg/kg, HSYA pretreatment significantly increased heat tolerance of the mice (P<0.05), showing a similar effect with Nec-1 pretreatment. Pretreatment with HSYA and Nec-1 both significantly increased survival rate of the mice (P<0.05), lowered histopathological score and water content of the lungs, and reduced the levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and HMGB1 (P<0.05), leukocyte and neutrophil counts, and total protein and HMGB1 levels in the BLF (P<0.05). The mice during recovery from HS showed significantly increased RIP1 expression and MLKL-s358 phosphorylation level in the lung tissue (P<0.05), which were obviously lowered by HSYA pretreatment of the mice. CONCLUSION Severe HS results in necroptosis in the lung tissue of mice, which can be alleviated by HSYA pretreatment.
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The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7565. [PMID: 36513644 PMCID: PMC9747907 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35008-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Frequent heatwaves under global warming can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), which in turn will affect physical health and human potential over the life course. However, what remains unknown is the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has contributed to such burdens. We combine health impact and economic assessment methods to comprehensively evaluate the entire heatwave-related PTB burden in dimensions of health, human capital and economic costs. Here, we show that during 2010-2020, an average of 13,262 (95%CI 6,962-18,802) PTBs occurred annually due to heatwave exposure in China. In simulated scenarios, 25.8% (95%CI 17.1%-34.5%) of heatwave-related PTBs per year on average can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which further result in substantial human capital losses, estimated at over $1 billion costs. Our findings will provide additional impetus for introducing more stringent climate mitigation policies and also call for more sufficient adaptations to reduce heatwave detriments to newborn.
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141
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Tang Y, Duan H, Yu S. Mitigating climate change to alleviate economic inequality under the Paris Agreement. iScience 2022; 26:105734. [PMID: 36582830 PMCID: PMC9792906 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the implications of global climate governance is critical for achieving sustainable economic development, given that the economic impacts of climate change and policies are disproportionately distributed across regions. We estimate the updated damage functions and construct an uncertainty analysis framework to assess whether stringent climate policies entail economic benefits in terms of growth and inequality. The findings show that although climate policies slow the pace of economic growth, the benefits of avoided damage may overweight policy costs in the long run. Moreover, pursuing the 1.5°C goal slows economic catch-up of poor countries in the short to medium term relative to 2°C, but improves global inequality in the long run. This situation may, however, change when moving to a fast-growing and fossil-fueled world, in which inequalities gradually decline but start to rise after 2065. This study highlights the importance of synergizing the stringent 1.5°C goal with economic inequality alleviation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yun Tang
- School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, PR China
| | - Hongbo Duan
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, PR China,Corresponding author
| | - Shiyun Yu
- College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, PR China
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142
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The ecological impact of plastic pollution in a changing climate. Emerg Top Life Sci 2022; 6:389-402. [PMID: 36398707 DOI: 10.1042/etls20220016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Revised: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Assessing three interlinked issues, plastic pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss separately can overlook potential interactions that may lead to positive or negative impacts on global ecosystem processes. Recent studies suggest that threatened species and ecosystems are vulnerable to both plastic pollution and climate change stressors. Here we consider the connectivity and state of knowledge between these three environmental issues with a focus on the Global South. Nine out of top ten Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI) (2000-2019) ranked countries are located within the Global South, yet research is focused in the Global North. A literature search for the top ten Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI) (2000-2019) ranked countries matched a total of 2416 (3.3% of global publications) search results on climate change, with 56 (4% of the global publications) on plastic pollution, and seven (7.7% of the global publications) on both climate change and plastic pollution. There is a strong correlation between the Global South and high biodiversity hotspots, high food insecurity and low environmental performance. Using Bangladesh as a case study, we show the erosion rates and sea level rise scenarios that will increase ocean-bound plastic pollution and impact high biodiversity areas. Poverty alleviation and promoting renewable energy and green practices can significantly reduce the stress on the environment. We recommend that these connected planetary threats can be best addressed through a holistic and collaborative approach to research, a focus on the Global South, and an ambitious policy agenda.
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143
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Zhou L, He C, Kim H, Honda Y, Lee W, Hashizume M, Chen R, Kan H. The burden of heat-related stroke mortality under climate change scenarios in 22 East Asian cities. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 170:107602. [PMID: 36323066 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Revised: 09/03/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in East Asia. Owing to the aging population and high prevalence of stroke, East Asia might suffer a disproportionately heavy burden of stroke under the changing climate. However, the evidence relevant is still limited in this area. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the stroke mortality risk due to heat exposure in East Asia and predict its burden under various future climate change scenarios. METHODS We conducted a multi-center observational study and collected data from 22 representative cities in three main East Asian countries (i.e., China, Japan, and South Korea) from 1972 to 2015. The two-stage time-series analyses were applied to estimate the effects of heat on stroke mortality at the regional and country level. We further projected the burden of heat-related stroke mortality using 10 global climate models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, including SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. RESULTS In the present study, a total of 287,579 stroke deaths were collected during the warm season. Heat was significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke mortality. Overall, compared with the 2010 s, the heat-related attributable fraction (AF) was projected to increase in the 2090 s, with increments ranging from 0.8 % to 7.5 % across various climate change scenarios. The heat-related AF was projected to reach 11.9 % (95 % empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 6.1 %, 17.5 %) in the 2090 s under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario in China, while the corresponding estimates were 6.6 % (95 % eCI: 2.5 %, 11.0 %) and 5.1 % (95 % eCI: 1.2 %, 9.1 %) for Japan and South Korea, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Climate change will exacerbate the burden of heat-related stroke mortality but with considerable geographical heterogeneity in East Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lu Zhou
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Children's Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children's Health, Shanghai, China.
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Racimo F, Valentini E, Rijo De León G, Santos TL, Norberg A, Atmore LM, Murray M, Hakala SM, Olsen FA, Gardner CJ, Halder JB. The biospheric emergency calls for scientists to change tactics. eLife 2022; 11:e83292. [PMID: 36342018 PMCID: PMC9640186 DOI: 10.7554/elife.83292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Our current economic and political structures have an increasingly devastating impact on the Earth's climate and ecosystems: we are facing a biospheric emergency, with catastrophic consequences for both humans and the natural world on which we depend. Life scientists - including biologists, medical scientists, psychologists and public health experts - have had a crucial role in documenting the impacts of this emergency, but they have failed to drive governments to take action in order to prevent the situation from getting worse. Here we, as members of the movement Scientist Rebellion, call on life scientists to re-embrace advocacy and activism - which were once hallmarks of academia - in order to highlight the urgency and necessity of systemic change across our societies. We particularly emphasise the need for scientists to engage in nonviolent civil resistance, a form of public engagement which has proven to be highly effective in social struggles throughout history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Racimo
- University of CopenhagenCopenhagenDenmark
- Scientist Rebellion DenmarkCopenhagenDenmark
| | - Elia Valentini
- University of EssexColchesterUnited Kingdom
- Scientist Rebellion ItalyRomeItaly
- Scientist Rebellion UKColchesterUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Teresa L Santos
- Universidade de LisboaLisbonPortugal
- Scientist Rebellion PortugalLisboaPortugal
| | - Anna Norberg
- Norwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
- Scientist Rebellion NorwayTrondheimNorway
| | - Lane M Atmore
- University of OsloOsloNorway
- Scientist Rebellion Turtle IslandTurtle IslandUnited States
| | - Myranda Murray
- Norwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
- Scientist Rebellion NorwayTrondheimNorway
| | - Sanja M Hakala
- University of FribourgFribourgSwitzerland
- Scientist Rebellion SwitzerlandFribourgSwitzerland
| | | | - Charlie J Gardner
- University of KentCanterburyUnited Kingdom
- Scientist Rebellion UKCanterburyUnited Kingdom
| | - Julia B Halder
- Imperial CollegeLondonUnited Kingdom
- Scientist Rebellion UKLondonUnited Kingdom
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Romanello M, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Ford LB, Belesova K, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hänninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Hess JJ, Hsu SC, Jankin S, Jamart L, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Batista ML, Lowe R, MacGuire F, Sewe MO, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Rabbaniha M, Robinson EJZ, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shi L, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell J, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias-González M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels. Lancet 2022; 400:1619-1654. [PMID: 36306815 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01540-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 320] [Impact Index Per Article: 160.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 08/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Green
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Daniel Scamman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kathryn Bowen
- School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Max Callaghan
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Kim R van Daalen
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health & Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Economic Analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yun Hang
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Stella Hartinger
- Facultad de Salud Publica y Administracion, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy J Hess
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Patrick Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environmental International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Jason K W Lee
- NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Martin Lotto Batista
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies and Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Frances MacGuire
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- Barlett School of Sustainable Construction, University of London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jan C Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventative Medicine and Public Health Research Centre, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics Sustainability, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at LSHTM, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nick Obradovich
- Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Megan B O'Hare
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tadj Oreszczyn
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media, and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre forScientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre forScientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jodi D Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Grant Silbert
- Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Marco Springmann
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jennifer Stowell
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marisol Yglesias-González
- Centro Latinoamericano de Excelencia en Cambio Climático y Salud, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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146
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Chown SL. Macrophysiology for decision‐making. J Zool (1987) 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/jzo.13029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- S. L. Chown
- Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, School of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Victoria Australia
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147
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Liu H, Tong M, Guo F, Nie Q, Li J, Li P, Zhu T, Xue T. Deaths attributable to anomalous temperature: A generalizable metric for the health impact of global warming. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 169:107520. [PMID: 36170754 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2022] [Revised: 08/05/2022] [Accepted: 09/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The U-shaped association between health outcomes and ambient temperatures has been extensively investigated. However, such analyses cannot fully estimate the mortality burden of climate change because the features of the association (e.g., minimum mortality temperature) vary with human adaptation; thus, they are not generalizable to different locations. In this study, we assumed that humans could adapt to regular temperature variations; and thus examined the all-cause mortality attributable to temperature anomaly (TA), an indicator widely utilized in climate science to measure irregular temperature fluctuations, across 115 cities in the United States (US). We first used quasi-Poisson regressions to obtain the city-specific TA-mortality associations, then used meta-regression to pool these city-specific estimates. Finally, we calculated the number of TA-related deaths using the uniform pooled association, then compared it to the estimates from city-specific associations, which had been controlled for adaptation. Meta-regression showed a U-shaped TA-mortality association, centered at a TA near 0. According to the pooled association, 0.579 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.465-0.681 %), 0.394 % (95 % CI: 0.332-0.451 %), and 0.185 % (95 % CI: 0.107-0.254 %) of all-cause deaths were attributable to all anomalous temperatures (TA ≠ 0), anomalous heat (TA > 0), and anomalous cold (TA < 0), respectively. At the city level, heat-related deaths estimated from the pooled association were in good agreement with heat-related deaths estimated from the city-specific associations (R2 = 0.84). However, the cold-related deaths estimated from the two methods showed a weaker correlation (R2 = 0.07). Our findings suggest that TA constitutes a generalizable indicator that can uniformly evaluate deaths attributable to anomalous heat in distinct geographical locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hengyi Liu
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Mingkun Tong
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Fuyu Guo
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Qiyue Nie
- College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jiwei Li
- School of Computer Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Pengfei Li
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tong Zhu
- College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Tao Xue
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China.
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Puvvula J, Abadi AM, Conlon KC, Rennie JJ, Herring SC, Thie L, Rudolph MJ, Owen R, Bell JE. Estimating the Burden of Heat-Related Illness Morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2022GH000636. [PMID: 36439028 PMCID: PMC9685474 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Revised: 08/31/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥30°C), both globally and locally. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness (HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months from 2011 to 2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e., absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate change. Over 4 years (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015), we observed a significant decrease in the rate of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 3 out of 20 HRI visits are attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal (13.40% [IQR: -34.90,95.52]) and Piedmont (16.39% [IQR: -35.18,148.26]) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of HRI was significantly higher (78.65%: Coastal and 65.85%: Piedmont), assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jagadeesh Puvvula
- Department of Environmental, Agricultural and Occupational HealthCollege of Public HealthUniversity of Nebraska Medical CenterOmahaNEUSA
| | - Azar M. Abadi
- Department of Environmental, Agricultural and Occupational HealthCollege of Public HealthUniversity of Nebraska Medical CenterOmahaNEUSA
| | - Kathryn C. Conlon
- Department of Public Health SciencesUniversity of California DavisDavisCAUSA
| | - Jared J. Rennie
- NOAA/National Centers for Environmental InformationAshevilleNCUSA
| | | | - Lauren Thie
- Division of Public Health, Occupational & Environmental EpidemiologyNorth Carolina Department of Health and Human ServicesRaleighNCUSA
| | - Max J. Rudolph
- Heider College of BusinessCreighton UniversityOmahaNEUSA
| | | | - Jesse E. Bell
- Department of Environmental, Agricultural and Occupational HealthCollege of Public HealthUniversity of Nebraska Medical CenterOmahaNEUSA
- School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska‐LincolnLincolnNEUSA
- Daugherty Water for Food Global InstituteUniversity of NebraskaLincolnNEUSA
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149
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Martinez GS, Kendrovski V, Salazar MA, de'Donato F, Boeckmann M. Heat-health action planning in the WHO European Region: Status and policy implications. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 214:113709. [PMID: 35779622 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2022] [Revised: 06/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Adverse health effects from extreme heat remain a major risk, especially in a changing climate. Several European countries have implemented heat health action plans (HHAPs) to prevent ill health and excess mortality from heat. This paper assesses the state of implementation of HHAPs in the WHO European Region and discusses barriers and successes since the early 2000s. The results are based on a web-based survey among 53 member states on the current national and federal HHAPs in place. Guided by the eight core elements of HHAPs as outlined by the WHO Regional Office for Europe guidance from 2008, we analyzed which elements were fully or partially implemented and which areas of improvement countries identified. HHAP adaptations to account for COVID-19 were sought via literature search and expert consultations. 27 member states provided information, of which 17 countries reported having a HHAP. Five out of eight core elements, namely agreement on a lead body, accurate and timely alert systems, heat-related health information plans, strategies to reduce health exposure, and care for vulnerable groups, were at least partially implemented in all 17 plans. Alert systems were implemented most often at 94%. The least often implemented items were real-time surveillance, long-term urban planning, and preparedness of health and social systems. Five countries had published COVID-19 guidance online. Our findings suggest a progressive improvement in the development and rollout of HHAPs overall and awareness of vulnerable population groups in WHO/Europe, while integration of HHAPs into long-term climate change and health planning remains a challenge.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Vladimir Kendrovski
- European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany.
| | | | - Francesca de'Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, ASL Roma 1, Via C. Colombo 112, Rome, Italy.
| | - Melanie Boeckmann
- University of Bremen, Faculty 11 Human and Health Sciences, Mary-Somerville-Str.3, 28359, Bremen, Germany.
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150
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Callahan CW, Mankin JS. Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eadd3726. [PMID: 36306351 PMCID: PMC9616493 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add3726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 09/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Increased extreme heat is among the clearest impacts of global warming, but the economic effects of heat waves are poorly understood. Using subnational economic data, extreme heat metrics measuring the temperature of the hottest several days in each year, and an ensemble of climate models, we quantify the effect of extreme heat intensity on economic growth globally. We find that human-caused increases in heat waves have depressed economic output most in the poor tropical regions least culpable for warming. Cumulative 1992-2013 losses from anthropogenic extreme heat likely fall between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion globally. Losses amount to 6.7% of Gross Domestic Product per capita per year for regions in the bottom income decile, but only 1.5% for regions in the top income decile. Our results have the potential to inform adaptation investments and demonstrate how global inequality is both a cause and consequence of the unequal burden of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher W. Callahan
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
- Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - Justin S. Mankin
- Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
- Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
- Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
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