Similarities and differences in outcomes of cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and hepatitis C

Prevalence and prognosis of patients with MASLD-related cirrhosis after an ICU hospitalization in France: A single-centre prospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)-related cirrhosis has been increasing these last decades. There are no data regarding the prevalence of MASLD-related cirrhosis in intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

Prospective single-centre study in a cohort of patients hospitalized in the ICU of Hepatology La Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital between January 2019 and September 2021. We analysed three groups of patients: MASLD-cirrhosis (alcohol ≤210 g for men and 140 g weekly for women), ALD (alcohol-related liver disease, alcohol>140 g weekly for women or >210 g for men)-cirrhosis alone and MetALD (metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease)-cirrhosis. Endpoints were 1-year transplant-free survival (TFS), further acute decompensation (AD) and re-admission.

RESULTS

A total of 410 patients were hospitalized, and 315 analysed: 39 in MASLD, 160 in ALD and 116 in MetALD groups. The global prevalence was 10% for MASLD, 41% ALD and 29.7% for MetALD. Patients in the MASLD group were significantly older (65 vs. 57 and 59 years, p < 0.001), and had lower Child-Pugh (8 vs. 11 vs. 10, p < 0.001) and MELD score (17 vs. 22 vs. 21, p < 0.001). The 1-year TFS was not different between groups (53% vs. 54% vs. 54%, p = 0.96). Cardiovascular mortality was <5% in all groups. The 1-year probability of developing hepatic encephalopathy was significantly higher in the MASLD group (73% vs. 27% and 21%, p < 0.001). There was no difference regarding the development of other complications between groups.

CONCLUSION

MASLD or MetALD was responsible for 1/3 of the causes of cirrhosis in the ICU. MASLD-related cirrhosis is as severe as ALD-related cirrhosis. Liver transplantation should be rapidly discussed.

A roadmap for clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis

Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is rapidly becoming a leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, therapeutic options are limited and the number of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis is low as compared to those conducted in earlier disease stages. Moreover, designing clinical trials in MASH cirrhosis presents a series of challenges regarding the understanding and conceptualization of the natural history, regulatory considerations, inclusion criteria, recruitment, end points and trial duration, among others. The first international workshop on the state of the art and future direction of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis was held in April 2023 at Vall d'Hebron University Hospital in Barcelona (Spain) and was attended by a group of international experts on clinical trials from academia, regulatory agencies and industry, encompassing expertise in MASH, cirrhosis, portal hypertension, and regulatory affairs. The presented Roadmap summarizes important content of the workshop on current status, regulatory requirements and end points in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis clinical trials, exploring alternative study designs and highlighting the challenges that should be considered for upcoming studies on MASH cirrhosis.

Methane gas in breath test is associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Although the associations between a patient's body mass index (BMI) and metabolic diseases, as well as their breath test results, have been studied, the relationship between breath hydrogen/methane levels and metabolic diseases needs to be further clarified. We aimed to investigate how the composition of exhaled breath gases relates to metabolic disorders, such as diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and their key risk factors. An analysis was performed using the medical records, including the lactulose breath test (LBT) data of patients who visited the Ajou University Medical Center, Suwon, Republic of Korea, between January 2016 and December 2021. The patients were grouped according to four different criteria for LBT hydrogen and methane levels. Of 441 patients, 325 (72.1%) had positive results for methane only (hydrogen < 20 parts per million [ppm] and methane ⩾ 3 ppm). BMIs and NAFLD prevalence were higher in patients with only methane positivity than in patients with hydrogen and methane positivity (hydrogen ⩾ 20 ppm and methane ⩾ 3 ppm). According to a multivariate analysis, the odds ratio of only methane positivity was 2.002 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.244-3.221,P= 0.004) for NAFLD. Our results demonstrate that breath methane positivity is related to NAFLD and suggest that increased methane gas on the breath tests has the potential to be an easily measurable biomarker for NAFLD diagnosis.

Non-invasive biomarkers prognostic of decompensation events in NASH cirrhosis: a systematic literature review

Liver cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a life-threatening condition with increasing incidence world-wide. Although its symptoms are unspecific, it can lead to decompensation events such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal hemorrhage, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In addition, an increased risk for cardiovascular events has been demonstrated in patients with NASH. Pharmacological treatments for NASH cirrhosis are not yet available, one of the reasons being the lack in surrogate endpoints available in clinical trials of NASH cirrhosis. The feasibility of non-invasive prognostic biomarkers makes them interesting candidates as possible surrogate endpoints if their change following treatment would result in better outcomes for patients in future clinical trials of NASH cirrhosis. In this systematic literature review, a summary of the available literature on the prognostic performance of non-invasive biomarkers in terms of cardiovascular events, liver-related events, and mortality is outlined. Due to the scarcity of data specific for NASH cirrhosis, this review includes studies on NAFLD whose evaluation focuses on cirrhosis. Our search strategy identified the following non-invasive biomarkers with prognostic value in studies of NASH patients: NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF™), BARD (BMI, AST/ALT (alanine aminotransferase) ratio, diabetes), Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS), liver enzymes (AST + ALT), alpha-fetoprotein, platelet count, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Lysyl oxidase-like (LOXL) 2, miR-122, liver stiffness, MEFIB (liver stiffness measured with magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) + FIB-4), and PNPLA3 GG genotype. The aim of the present systematic literature review is to provide the reader with a summary of the non-invasive biomarkers with prognostic value in NASH cirrhosis and give an evaluation of their utility as treatment monitoring biomarkers in future clinical trials.

Exploring the Role of Bempedoic Acid in Metabolic Dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: Actual Evidence and Future Perspectives

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) involves excessive lipid accumulation in hepatocytes, impacting global healthcare due to its high prevalence and risk of progression to severe liver conditions. Its pathogenesis involves genetic, metabolic, and inflammatory factors, with cardiovascular events as the leading cause of mortality. This review examines the role of lipid-lowering therapies in MASLD, with a particular focus on bempedoic acid, a recently approved cholesterol-lowering agent for hypercholesterolemia and high cardiovascular-risk patients. It explores its potential in liver disease by modulating lipid metabolism and inflammatory pathways based on the most recent studies available. Bempedoic acid inhibits ATP-citrate lyase, reducing cholesterol and fatty acid synthesis while activating AMP-activated protein kinase to suppress gluconeogenesis and lipogenesis. Animal studies indicate its efficacy in reducing hepatic steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis. Bempedoic acid holds promise as a therapeutic for MASLD, offering dual benefits in lipid metabolism and inflammation. Further clinical trials are required to confirm its efficacy and safety in MASLD patients, potentially addressing the multifaceted nature of this disease.

MASLD-Related HCC: A Comprehensive Review of the Trends, Pathophysiology, Tumor Microenvironment, Surveillance, and Treatment Options

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a significant burden on global healthcare systems due to its considerable incidence and mortality rates. Recent trends indicate an increase in the worldwide incidence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and a shift in the etiology of HCC, with MASLD replacing the hepatitis B virus as the primary contributor to new cases of HCC. MASLD-related HCC exhibits distinct characteristics compared to viral HCC, including unique immune cell profiles resulting in an overall more immunosuppressive or exhausted tumor microenvironment. Furthermore, MASLD-related HCC is frequently identified in older age groups and among individuals with cardiometabolic comorbidities. Additionally, a greater percentage of MASLD-related HCC cases occur in noncirrhotic patients compared to those with viral etiologies, hindering early detection. However, the current clinical practice guidelines lack specific recommendations for the screening of HCC in MASLD patients. The evolving landscape of HCC management offers a spectrum of therapeutic options, ranging from surgical interventions and locoregional therapies to systemic treatments, for patients across various stages of the disease. Despite ongoing debates, the current evidence does not support differences in optimal treatment modalities based on etiology. In this study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current literature on the trends, characteristics, clinical implications, and treatment modalities for MASLD-related HCC.

Monitoring disease progression in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease. Its prevalence is increasing with the epidemic of obesity and metabolic syndrome. MASLD progression into metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and advanced fibrosis may lead to decompensated cirrhosis and development of liver-related events, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Monitoring disease progression is critical in decreasing morbidity, mortality, need for transplant and economic burden. Assessing for treatment response once FDA-approved medications are available is still an unmet clinical need.

AIMS

To explore the most up-to-date literature on testing used for monitoring disease progression and treatment response METHODS: We searched PubMed from inception to 15 August 2023, using the following MeSH terms: 'MASLD', 'Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease', 'MASH', 'metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis', 'Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease', 'NAFLD', 'non-alcoholic steatohepatitis', 'NASH', 'Biomarkers', 'clinical trial'. Articles were also identified through searches of the authors' files. The final reference list was generated based on originality and relevance to this review's broad scope, considering only papers published in English.

RESULTS

We have cited 101 references in this review detailing methods to monitor MASLD disease progression and treatment response.

CONCLUSION

Various biomarkers can be used in different care settings to monitor disease progression. Further research is needed to validate noninvasive tests more effectively.

Comparative quantitation of liver-type fatty acid-binding protein localizations in liver injury and non-pathological liver tissue in dogs

Background and Aim

Liver injury results in the production of free radicals that can lead to hepatocytic degeneration, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver-fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) is highly expressed in hepatocytes and is a key regulator of hepatic lipid metabolism and antioxidant characteristics. Interestingly, the increase in L-FABP expression could be used as a novel marker of liver injury. Therefore, this study aimed to use immunohistochemical techniques to investigate the expression of L-FABP in dogs with liver injury compared with dogs with non-pathological liver.

Materials and Methods

Liver tissue samples were collected from dog biopsy specimens at the Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University. The tissues were prepared for immunohistochemistry and the expression and localization of L-FABP were investigated using one-way analysis of variance.

Results

Immunohistochemical analysis showed that L-FABP was strongly expressed in the hepatocytes of dogs with lipidosis and HCC when compared with that in normal liver. Semi-quantitative immunohistochemistry evaluation showed the percentage of protein expression of L-FABP 0.023 ± 0.027 in the non-pathological liver. The percentage of L-FABP protein expression in lipidosis and HCC was found to be 8.517 ± 1.059 and 17.371 ± 4.026, respectively.

Conclusion

L-FABP expression in dogs with liver injuries was significantly higher than that in dogs with non-pathological liver injury (p = 0.05). These results suggest that L-FABP has the potential as a novel marker for specific diagnosis and prognosis of dogs with liver injury.

Endpoints in NASH Clinical Trials: Are We Blind in One Eye?

This narrative review aims to illustrate the notion that nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), recently renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), is a systemic metabolic disorder featuring both adverse hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes. In recent years, several NASH trials have failed to identify effective pharmacological treatments and, therefore, lifestyle changes are the cornerstone of therapy for NASH. with this context, we analyze the epidemiological burden of NASH and the possible pathogenetic factors involved. These include genetic factors, insulin resistance, lipotoxicity, immuno-thrombosis, oxidative stress, reprogramming of hepatic metabolism, and hypoxia, all of which eventually culminate in low-grade chronic inflammation and increased risk of fibrosis progression. The possible explanations underlying the failure of NASH trials are also accurately examined. We conclude that the high heterogeneity of NASH, resulting from variable genetic backgrounds, exposure, and responses to different metabolic stresses, susceptibility to hepatocyte lipotoxicity, and differences in repair-response, calls for personalized medicine approaches involving research on noninvasive biomarkers. Future NASH trials should aim at achieving a complete assessment of systemic determinants, modifiers, and correlates of NASH, thus adopting a more holistic and unbiased approach, notably including cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic outcomes, without restricting therapeutic perspectives to histological surrogates of liver-related outcomes alone.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations with hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States

BACKGROUND

We studied the temporal trends of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-related hospitalizations and potential predictors of in-hospital mortality around the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using the International Classification of Diseases code, we used the National Inpatient Sample 2019-2020 and defined HCC and its underlying etiology. To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalization and in-hospital mortality, the study period was divided into the pre-COVID-19 era (2019 Q1-2020 Q1) and the COVID-19 era (2020 Q2-2020 Q4). Quarterly trends in etiology-based hospitalizations with HCC and predictors of in-hospital mortality among hospitalizations with HCC were determined.

RESULTS

Hospitalization rates for HCC, as well as viral hepatitis-related HCC hospitalization rates, remained stable, while hospitalizations with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD, quarterly percentage change [QPC]: 2.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1%-4.2%) increased steadily. Hospitalization related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related HCC increased significantly steeper in the COVID-19 era (QPC: 6.6%; 95% CI: 4.0%-9.3%) than in the pre-COVID-19 era (QPC: 0.7%; 95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%). COVID-19 infection was independently associated with in-hospital mortality among hospitalizations with HCC (odds ratio: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.30-2.88).

CONCLUSION

Hospitalization rates for viral hepatitis-related HCC remained stable, while those for HCC due to ALD and NAFLD increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Artificial intelligence/neural network system that accurately diagnoses hepatocellular carcinoma in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim of this study was to develop a novel noninvasive test using an artificial intelligence/neural network system (called HCC-Scope) to diagnose early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on the background of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

METHODS

In total, 175 patients with histologically proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and 55 patients with NASH-HCC were enrolled for training and validation studies. Of the 55 patients with NASH-HCC, 27 (49.1%) had very early-stage HCC, and six (10.9%) had early-stage HCC based on the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system. Diagnosis with HCC-Scope was performed based on 12 items: age, sex, height, weight, AST level, ALT level, gamma-glutamyl transferase level, cholesterol level, triglyceride level, platelet count, diabetes status, and IgM-free apoptosis inhibitor of macrophage level. The FMVWG2U47 hardware (Fujitsu Co. Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) and the originally developed software were used.

RESULTS

HCC-Scope had sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for the differential diagnosis between non-HCC and HCC in a training study with gray zone analysis. It was also excellent in the validation study (95.0% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% PPV, and 97.1% NPV with gray zone analysis and 95.2% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% PPV, and 97.1% NPV without gray zone analysis). HCC-Scope had a significantly higher sensitivity (85.3%) and specificity (85.1%) than alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, AFP-L3 level, des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) level, and the gender-age-AFP-L3-AFP-DCP (GALAD) score.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC-Scope can accurately differentially diagnose between non-HCC NASH and NASH-HCC, including very early-stage NASH-HCC.

MAFLD: an optimal framework for understanding liver cancer phenotypes

Hepatocellular carcinoma has a substantial global mortality burden which is rising despite advancements in tackling the traditional viral risk factors. Metabolic (dysfunction) associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is the most prevalent liver disease, increasing in parallel with the epidemics of obesity, diabetes and systemic metabolic dysregulation. MAFLD is a major factor behind this sustained rise in HCC incidence, both as a single disease entity and often via synergistic interactions with other liver diseases. Mechanisms behind MAFLD-related HCC are complex but is crucially underpinned by systemic metabolic dysregulation with variable contributions from interacting disease modifiers related to environment, genetics, dysbiosis and immune dysregulation. MAFLD-related HCC has a distinct clinical presentation, most notably its common occurrence in non-cirrhotic liver disease. This is just one of several major challenges to effective surveillance programmes. The response of MAFLD-related HCC to immune-checkpoint therapy is currently controversial, and is further complicated by the high prevalence of MAFLD in individuals with HCC from viral aetiologies. In this review, we highlight the current data on epidemiology, clinical characteristics, outcomes and screening controversies. In addition, concepts that have arisen because of the MAFLD paradigm such as HCC in MAFLD/NAFLD non-overlapping groups, dual aetiology tumours and MAFLD sub-phenotypes is reviewed.

From NAFLD to HCC: Advances in noninvasive diagnosis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has gradually become one of the major liver health problems in the world. The dynamic course of the disease goes through steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, and carcinoma. Before progressing to carcinoma, timely and effective intervention will make the condition better, which highlights the importance of early diagnosis. With the further study of the biological mechanism in the pathogenesis and progression of NAFLD, some potential biomarkers have been discovered, and the possibility of their clinical application is gradually being discussed. At the same time, the progress of imaging technology and the emergence of new materials and methods also provide more possibilities for the diagnosis of NAFLD. This article reviews the diagnostic markers and advanced diagnostic methods of NAFLD in recent years.

Ethnic differences in hepatocellular carcinoma prevalence and therapeutic outcomes

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. The incidence of HCC is affected by genetic and non-genetic factors. Genetically, mutations in the genes, tumor protein P53 (TP53), catenin beta 1 (CTNNB1), AT-rich interaction domain 1A (ARIC1A), cyclin dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A), mannose 6-phosphate (M6P), smooth muscle action against decapentaplegic (SMAD2), retinoblastoma gene (RB1), cyclin D, antigen presenting cells (APC), AXIN1, and E-cadherin, have been shown to contribute to the occurrence of HCC. Non-genetic factors, including alcohol consumption, exposure to aflatoxin, age, gender, presence of hepatitis B (HBV), hepatitis C (HCV), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), increase the risk of HCC.

RECENT FINDINGS

The severity of the disease and its occurrence vary based on geographical location. Furthermore, men and minorities have been shown to be disproportionately affected by HCC, compared with women and non-minorities. Ethnicity has been reported to significantly affect tumorigenesis and clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with HCC. Generally, differences in gene expression and/or the presence of comorbid medical diseases affect or influence the progression of HCC. Non-Caucasian HCC patients are significantly more likely to have poorer survival outcomes, compared to their Caucasian counterparts. Finally, there are a number of factors that contribute to the success rate of treatments for HCC.

CONCLUSION

Assessment and treatment of HCC must be consistent using evidence-based guidelines and standardized outcomes, as well as international clinical practice guidelines for global consensus. Standardizing the assessment approach and method will enable comparison and improvement of liver cancer research through collaboration between researchers, healthcare providers, and advocacy groups. In this review, we will focus on discussing epidemiological factors that result in deviations and changes in treatment approaches for HCC.

Suboptimal diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound and CT for compensated cirrhosis: Evidence from prospective cohort studies

INTRODUCTION

Abdominal ultrasound (US) and CT are important tools for the initial evaluation of patients with liver disease. Our study aimed to determine the accuracy of these methods for diagnosing cirrhosis.

METHODS

In all, 377 participants from 4 prospective cohort studies evaluating patients with various liver diseases were included. All patients were included between 2017 and 2022 and had undergone a liver biopsy as well as US and/or CT. Using the histological assessment as the gold standard, we calculated diagnostic accuracy for US and CT. Liver biopsies were evaluated by expert histopathologists and diagnostic scans by experienced radiologists.

RESULTS

The mean age was 54 ± 14 years and 47% were female. Most patients had NAFLD (58.3%) or alcohol-associated liver disease (25.5%). The liver biopsy showed cirrhosis in 147 patients (39.0%). Eighty-three patients with cirrhosis had Child-Pugh A (56.4% of patients with cirrhosis) and 64 had Child-Pugh B/C (43.6%). Overall, the sensitivity for diagnosing cirrhosis by US was 0.71 (95% CI 0.62-0.79) and for CT 0.74 (95% CI 0.64-0.83). The specificity was high for US (0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.97) and for CT (0.93, 95% CI 0.83-0.98). When evaluating patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis, sensitivity was only 0.62 (95% CI 0.49-0.74) for US and 0.60 (95% CI 0.43-0.75) for CT. For patients with Child-Pugh B/C, sensitivity was 0.83 (95% CI 0.70-0.92) for US and 0.87 (95% CI 0.74-0.95) for CT. When limiting our analysis to NAFLD (20% with cirrhosis), the sensitivity for US was 0.45 (95% CI 0.28-0.64) and specificity was 0.97 (95% CI 0.93-0.99).

CONCLUSION

US and CT show moderate sensitivity and may potentially overlook compensated cirrhosis underlining the need for additional diagnostic testing.

Performing Quality Control on Magnetic Resonance Imaging Liver Fat/Iron Quantification Studies: A Critical Requirement

OBJECTIVE

Nonalcoholic fatty liver and iron overload can lead to cirrhosis requiring early detection. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging utilizing chemical shift-encoded sequences and multi-Time of Echo single-voxel spectroscopy (SVS) are frequently used for assessment. The purpose of this study was to assess various quality factors of technical acceptability and any deficiencies in technologist performance in these fat/iron MR quantification studies.

METHODS

Institutional review board waived retrospective quality improvement review of 87 fat/iron MR studies performed over a 6-month period was evaluated. Technical acceptability/unacceptability for chemical shift-encoded sequences (q-Dixon and IDEAL-IQ) included data handling errors (missing maps), liver field coverage, fat/water swap, motion, or other artifacts. Similarly, data handling (missing table/spectroscopy), curve-fit, fat- and water-peak separation, and water-peak sharpness were evaluated for SVS technical acceptability.

RESULTS

Data handling errors were found in 11% (10/87) of studies with missing maps or entire sequence (SVS or q-Dixon). Twenty-seven percent (23/86) of the q-Dixon/IDEAL-IQ were technically unacceptable (incomplete liver-field [39%], other artifacts [35%], significant/severe motion [18%], global fat/water swap [4%], and multiple reasons [4%]). Twenty-eight percent (21/75) of SVS sequences were unacceptable (water-peak broadness [67%], poor curve-fit [19%] overlapping fat and water peaks [5%], and multiple reasons [9%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A high rate of preventable errors in fat/iron MR quantification studies indicates the need for routine quality control and evaluation of technologist performance and technical deficiencies that may exist within a radiology practice. Potential solutions such as instituting a checklist for technologists during each acquisition procedure and routine auditing may be required.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma:Insights in epidemiology, pathogenesis, imaging, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is estimated to be the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and is characterized by low survival rates. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is emerging as a leading cause of HCC, whose rates are increasing, owing to the increasing prevalence of NAFLD. The pathogenesis of NAFLD-associated HCC is multifactorial: insulin resistance, obesity, diabetes and the low-grade hepatic inflammation, which characterizes NAFLD, seem to play key roles in the development and progression of HCC. The diagnosis of NAFLD-associated HCC is based on imaging in the presence of liver cirrhosis, preferably computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, but liver biopsy for histological confirmation is usually required in the absence of liver cirrhosis. Some preventive measures have been recommended for NAFLD-associated HCC, including weight loss, cessation of even moderate alcohol drinking and smoking, as well as the use of metformin, statins and aspirin. However, these preventive measures are mainly based on observational studies, thus they need validation in trials of different design before introducing in clinical practice. The treatment of NAFLD should be tailored on an individual basis and should be ideally determined by a multidisciplinary team. In the last two decades, new medications, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors and immune checkpoints inhibitors, have improved the survival of patients with advanced HCC, but trials specifically designed for patients with NAFLD-associated HCC are scarce. The aim of this review was to overview evidence on the epidemiology and pathophysiology of NAFLD-associated HCC, then to comment on imaging tools for its appropriate screening and diagnosis, and finally to critically summarize the currently available options for its prevention and treatment.

Hematological Indices Are Useful in Predicting Complications of Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive scores as predictors of complications and outcome in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

A total of 150 cirrhotic patients were included. Models for end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MoLR), and neutrophil-lymphocyte-albumin ratio (NLA) scores were tested in relation to the development of complications and mortality using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The ROC curve analysis showed (area under the curve) AUC values of NLR, NLA, ALBI, and MELD of 0.711, 0.730, 0.627, and 0.684, respectively, for short-term mortality. MELD, ALBI, and NLA scores showed a statistically significant correlation with hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.000 vs. 0.014 vs. 0.040, respectively), and the MELD cut-off value of 16 had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 52% (AUC: 0.671, 95% CI (0.577-0.765)). For the assessment of the presence of ascites, the AUC values for NLA and MoLR were 0.583 and 0.658, respectively, with cut-offs of 11.38 and 0.44.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD, ALBI, and NLA are reliable predictors of hepatic encephalopathy. NLA and MoLR showed a significant correlation with the presence of ascites, and MELD, ALBI, NLR, and NLA have prognostic value to predict 30-day mortality in cirrhotic patients.

Effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs using multitarget blood test: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)-with and without improved adherence-against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial in patients with compensated cirrhosis comparing potential surveillance strategies: biannual surveillance using ultrasound, ultrasound plus AFP, and mt-HBT with or without improved adherence (+10% increase). We used published data to inform underlying liver disease progression rates, HCC tumor growth patterns, performance characteristics of surveillance modalities, and efficacy of treatments. Primary outcomes of interest were the number of early-stage HCCs detected and life years gained.

RESULTS

Per 100,000 patients with cirrhosis, mt-HBT detected 1680 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound alone and 350 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 5720 and 1000 life years, respectively. mt-HBT with improved adherence detected 2200 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound and 880 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 8140 and 3420 life years, respectively. The number of screening tests needed to detect one HCC case was 139 with ultrasound, 122 with ultrasound + AFP, 119 with mt-HBT, and 124 with mt-HBT with improved adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

mt-HBT is a promising alternative to ultrasound-based HCC surveillance, particularly given anticipated improved adherence with blood-based biomarkers could increase HCC surveillance effectiveness.

Trends in aetiology-based hospitalisation for cirrhosis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with pre-existing cirrhosis and exposure to coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) may portend a poor prognosis. We evaluated the temporal trends in aetiology-based hospitalisations and potential predictors of in-hospital mortality in hospitalisation with cirrhosis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Based on the US National Inpatient Sample 2019-2020, we determined quarterly trends in aetiology-based hospitalisations with cirrhosis and decompensated cirrhosis and identified predictors of in-hospital mortality in hospitalisation with cirrhosis.

RESULTS

We analysed 316,418 hospitalisations, representing 1,582,090 hospitalisations with cirrhosis. Hospitalisations for cirrhosis increased at a relatively higher rate during the COVID-19 era. Hospitalisation rates for alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)-related cirrhosis increased significantly (quarterly percentage change [QPC]: 3.6%, 95% CI: 2.2%-5.1%), with a notably higher rate during the COVID-19 era. In contrast, hospitalisation rates for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis decreased steadily with a trend of -1.4% of QPC (95% CI: -2.5% to -0.1%). Quarterly trends in the proportion of ALD- (QPC: 1.7%, 95% CI: 0.9%-2.6%) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-related (QPC: 0.7%, 95% CI: 0.1%-1.2%) hospitalisations with cirrhosis increased significantly but declined steadily for viral hepatitis. The COVID-19 era and COVID-19 infection were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality during hospitalisation with cirrhosis and decompensated cirrhosis. Compared with HCV-related cirrhosis, ALD-related cirrhosis was associated with a 40% higher risk of in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

In-hospital mortality in cirrhosis was higher in the COVID-19 era than in the pre-COVID-19 era. ALD is the leading aetiology-specific cause of in-hospital mortality in cirrhosis with an independent detrimental impact of the COVID-19 infection.

LIN28 and histone H3K4 methylase induce TLR4 to generate tumor-initiating stem-like cells

Chemoresistance and plasticity of tumor-initiating stem-like cells (TICs) promote tumor recurrence and metastasis. The gut-originating endotoxin-TLR4-NANOG oncogenic axis is responsible for the genesis of TICs. This study investigated mechanisms as to how TICs arise through transcriptional, epigenetic, and post-transcriptional activation of oncogenic TLR4 pathways. Here, we expressed constitutively active TLR4 (caTLR4) in mice carrying pLAP-tTA or pAlb-tTA, under a tetracycline withdrawal-inducible system. Liver progenitor cell induction accelerated liver tumor development in caTLR4-expressing mice. Lentiviral shRNA library screening identified histone H3K4 methylase SETD7 as central to activation of TLR4. SETD7 combined with hypoxia induced TLR4 through HIF2 and NOTCH. LIN28 post-transcriptionally stabilized TLR4 mRNA via de-repression of let-7 microRNA. These results supported a LIN28-TLR4 pathway for the development of HCCs in a hypoxic microenvironment. These findings not only advance our understanding of molecular mechanisms responsible for TIC generation in HCC, but also represent new therapeutic targets for the treatment of HCC.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies.

RESULTS

Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may progress to cirrhotic or non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is currently recognized as the fastest growing cause of HCC worldwide. Accordingly, professional society guidelines recommend HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis from any etiology, and some may consider it beneficial in subgroups with non-cirrhotic NAFLD at higher risk for HCC. Notably, patients with NAFLD-related HCC are more likely to have HCC diagnosed at more advanced stages and have poorer outcomes when compared to other etiologies, and suboptimal effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs is a major culprit. In this review, we summarize the current guidelines for HCC surveillance and discuss its benefits versus potential harms for NAFLD patients. We also address the unique challenges of HCC surveillance in NAFLD, including higher proportion of NAFLD-related HCC without cirrhosis, poor recognition of at-risk patients, lack of consensus regarding the value of surveillance in non-cirrhotic NAFLD, subpar effectiveness of surveillance tools related to NAFLD phenotype, and preponderant surveillance underuse among NAFLD patients. Finally, we examine the effectiveness of currently used surveillance tools (i.e., ultrasound and alpha fetoprotein) and outline future perspectives including emerging risk stratification tools, imaging surveillance strategies (e.g., abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging protocols), blood-based biomarkers (e.g., GALAD and circulating tumor DNA panels), and interventions to improve surveillance adherence.

Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort.

METHODS

We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC.

RESULTS

MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease screening in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A cost-effectiveness and price threshold analysis

Introduction: The cost-effectiveness of screening asymptomatic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients remains debatable, with current studies assuming lifelong benefits of NAFLD screening while neglecting cardiovascular outcomes. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of NAFLD screening among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, and to establish a price threshold for NAFLD treatment, when it becomes available. Method: A Markov model was constructed comparing 4 screening strategies (versus no screening) to identify NAFLD with advanced fibrosis among T2DM patients: fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), FIB-4 and VCTE (simultaneous), and FIB-4 and VCTE (sequential). Sensitivity analyses and price threshold analyses were performed to assess parameter uncertainties in the results. Results: VCTE was the most cost-effective NAFLD screening strategy (USD24,727/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), followed by FIB-4 (USD36,800/QALY), when compared to no screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a higher degree of certainty for VCTE as a cost-effective strategy compared to FIB-4 (90.7% versus 73.2%). The duration of expected screening benefit is the most influential variable based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio tornado analysis. The minimum duration of screening benefit for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective was at least 2.6 years. The annual cost of NAFLD treatment should be less than USD751 for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective. Conclusion: Both VCTE and FIB-4 are cost-effective NAFLD screening strategies among T2DM patients in Singapore. However, given the lack of access to VCTE at primacy care and potential budget constraints, FIB-4 can also be considered for NAFLD screening among T2DM patients in Singapore. Keywords: Cost-effectiveness analysis, fatty liver, screening, liver fibrosis, population health

Evaluation of liver transplant candidates with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is anticipated to become the leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States in the near future. LT is indicated in patients with NASH-related cirrhosis who have medically refractory hepatic decompensation, synthetic dysfunction, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) meeting certain criteria. The objective of LT evaluation is to determine which patient will derive the most benefit from LT with the least risk, thus maximizing the societal benefits of a limited resource. LT evaluation is a multidisciplinary undertaking involving several specialists, assessment tools, and diagnostic testing. Although the steps involved in LT evaluation are relatively similar across different liver diseases, patients with NASH-related cirrhosis have unique demographic and clinical features that affect transplant outcomes and influence their LT evaluation. LT candidates with NASH should be assessed for metabolic syndrome and obesity, malnutrition and sarcopenia, frailty, and cardiovascular disease. Interventions that treat cardiometabolic co-morbidities and improve patients' nutrition and functionality should be considered in order to improve patient outcomes in the waitlist and after LT.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Due to Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Current Concepts and Future Challenges

Obesity has been labeled as the global pandemic of the 21st century, resulting from a sedentary lifestyle and caloric excess. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), characterized by excessive hepatic steatosis, is strongly associated with obesity and metabolic syndrome and is estimated to be present in one-quarter of the world population, making it the most common cause of the chronic liver disease (CLD). NAFLD spectrum varies from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and cirrhosis. The burden of NAFLD has been predicted to increase in the coming decades resulting in increased rates of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related deaths. In the current review, we describe the pathophysiology of NAFLD and NASH, risk factors associated with disease progression, related complications, and mortality. Later, we have discussed the changing epidemiology of HCC, with NAFLD emerging as the most common cause of CLD and HCC. We have also addressed the risk factors of HCC development in the NAFLD population (including demographic, metabolic, genetic, dietary, and lifestyle factors), presentation of NAFLD-associated HCC, its prognosis, and the issue of HCC development in non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Lastly, the problems related to HCC screening in the NAFLD population, the remaining challenges, and future directions, especially the need to identify the high-risk individuals, will be discussed. We will conclude the review by summarizing the clinical evidence for treating fibrosis and preventing HCC in those at risk with NAFLD-associated HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease: Can we stratify at-risk populations?

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a new nomenclature recently proposed by a panel of international experts so that the entity is defined based on positive criteria and linked to pathogenesis, replacing the traditional non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), a definition based on exclusion criteria. NAFLD/MAFLD is currently the most common form of chronic liver disease worldwide and is a growing risk factor for development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It is estimated than 25% of the global population have NAFLD and is projected to increase in the next years. Major Scientific Societies agree that surveillance for HCC should be indicated in patients with NAFLD/ MAFLD and cirrhosis but differ in non-cirrhotic patients (including those with advanced fibrosis). Several studies have shown that the annual incidence rate of HCC in NAFLD-cirrhosis is greater than 1%, thus surveillance for HCC is cost-effective. Risk factors that increase HCC incidence in these patients are male gender, older age, presence of diabetes and any degree of alcohol consumption. In non-cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC is much lower and variable, being a great challenge to stratify the risk of HCC in this group. Furthermore, large epidemiological studies based on the general population have shown that diabetes and obesity significantly increase risk of HCC. Some genetic variants may also play a role modifying the HCC occurrence among patients with NAFLD. The purpose of this review is to discuss the epidemiology, clinical and genetic risk factors that may influence the risk of HCC in NAFLD/MAFLD patients and propose screening strategy to translate into better patient care.

Current considerations for clinical management and care of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Insights from the 1st International Workshop of the Canadian NASH Network (CanNASH)

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 8 million Canadians. NAFLD refers to a disease spectrum ranging from bland steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Nearly 25% of patients with NAFLD develop NASH, which can progress to liver cirrhosis and related end-stage complications. Type 2 diabetes and obesity represent the main risk factors for the disease. The Canadian NASH Network is a national collaborative organization of health care professionals and researchers with a primary interest in enhancing understanding, care, education, and research around NAFLD, with a vision of best practices for this disease state. At the 1st International Workshop of the CanNASH network in April 2021, a joint event with the single topic conference of the Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver (CASL), clinicians, epidemiologists, basic scientists, and community members came together to share their work under the theme of NASH. This symposium also marked the initiation of collaborations between Canadian and other key opinion leaders in the field representative of international liver associations. The main objective is to develop a policy framework that outlines specific targets, suggested activities, and evidence-based best practices to guide provincial, territorial, and federal organizations in developing multidisciplinary models of care and strategies to address this epidemic.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may be a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the extent of this association still needs to be addressed. Pooled incidence rates of HCC across the disease spectrum of NAFLD have never been estimated by meta-analysis.

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched Web of Science, Embase, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 1950 through July 30, 2020. We included studies reporting on HCC incidence in patients with NAFLD. The main outcomes were pooled HCC incidences in patients with NAFLD at distinct severity stages. Summary estimates were calculated with random-effects models. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression analyses were carried out to address heterogeneity.

RESULTS

We included 18 studies involving 470,404 patients. In patients with NAFLD at a stage earlier than cirrhosis, the incidence rate of HCC was 0.03 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01-0.07; I² = 98%). In patients with cirrhosis, the incidence rate was 3.78 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.47-5.78; I² = 93%). Patients with cirrhosis undergoing regular screening for HCC had an incidence rate of 4.62 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.77-7.72; I² = 77%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NAFLD-related cirrhosis have a risk of developing HCC similar to that reported for patients with cirrhosis from other etiologies. Evidence documenting the risk in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or simple steatosis is limited, but the incidence of HCC in these populations may lie below thresholds used to recommend a screening. Well-designed prospective studies in these subpopulations are needed. The protocol for this systematic review is registered in the Prospero database (registration number CRD42018092861).

Fibrosis and hepatic regeneration mechanism

Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of continuous hepatic inflammatory activity derived by viral, metabolic or autoimmune origin. In the last years, cirrhosis was considered a unique and static condition; recently was accepted some patients subgroups with different liver injury degrees that coexist under the same diagnosis, with implications about the natural disease history. The liver growth factor (LGF) is a potent in vivo and in vitro mitogenic agent and an inducer of hepatic regeneration (HR) through the hepatocytes DNA synthesis. The clinical implications of the LGF levels in cirrhosis, are not clear and even with having a fundamental role in the liver regeneration processes, the studies suggest that it could be a cirrhosis severity marker, in acute liver failure and in chronic hepatitis. Its role as predictor of mortality in fulminant hepatic insufficiency patients has been suggested. HR is one of the most enigmatic and fascinating biological phenomena. The rapid volume and liver function restoration after a major hepatectomy (>70%) or severe hepatocellular damage and its strict regulation of tissue damage response after the cessation, is an exclusive property of the liver. HR is the clinical applications fundament, such as extensive hepatic resections (>70% of the liver parenchyma), segmental transplantation or living donor transplantation, sequential hepatectomies, isolated portal embolization or associated with in situ hepatic transection, temporary artificial support in acute liver failure and the possible cell therapy clinical applications.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes: Prevalence and pathophysiology

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most frequent chronic liver disease in the general population with a global prevalence of 25%. It is often associated with metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes, as insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia are known to be favoring factors. Recent studies have described growing incidence of NAFLD in type 1 diabetes (T1D) as well. Although increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome in these patients seems to explain part of this increase in NAFLD, other underlying mechanisms may participate in the emergence of NAFLD. Notably, some genetic factors are more associated with fatty liver disease, but their prevalence in T1D has not been evaluated. Moreover, oxidative stress, poor glucose control and long-lasting hyperglycemia, as well as exogenous insulin administration play an important role in intrahepatic fat homeostasis. The main differential diagnosis of NAFLD in T1D is glycogenic hepatopathy, which needs to be considered mostly in T1D patients with poor glycemic control. This article aims to review the prevalence and pathophysiology of NAFLD in T1D and open perspectives for clinicians taking care of T1D patients with potential hepatopathy.

Cost-effectiveness and potential value of pharmaceutical treatment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. With currently no approved treatment, an effective pharmaceutical intervention for this disease must be both clinically- and cost-effective.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to estimate the clinical outcomes, costs, and quality of life impact of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention. Lifetime clinical outcomes, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2020 $US), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and economically justifiable prices (EJPs) were quantified. Only patients with fibrosis stage F2-F4 were assumed eligible to initiate pharmaceutical treatment.

RESULTS

Over a mean life expectancy of approximately 21 years in the simulated cohort, drug treatment reduced liver-related mortality by 6.0% (2.7% absolute reduction). Assuming an annual drug cost of $36,000, total discounted medical costs were $574,238 and $120,312 for drug and usual care, respectively, with discounted QALYs estimated to be 9.452 and 9.272 for the two comparators. This yielded an ICER of $2,517,676/QALY gained. The EJP of the drug at an ICER threshold of $150,000/QALY gained was $2,633, a 93% reduction from a base case. Sensitivity analyses suggest that, without a substantial decrease in the drug price, ICERs would exceed $500,000/QALY gained even with the most favorable efficacy assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS

For a pharmaceutical intervention to be considered cost-effective in the NAFLD fibrosis population, the substantial clinical benefit will need to be coupled with a modest annual price. Annual drug costs exceeding $12,000 likely will not provide reasonable value, even with favorable efficacy. More work is needed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle modifications.

Cost-effectiveness of obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: An early economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Currently, there are no pharmacological options available for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In the 18-month interim analysis of an ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (REGENERATE), early results demonstrated that obeticholic acid (OCA) 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis with no worsening of NASH among patients with NASH and fibrosis compared with placebo (PBO). This study aimed to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of OCA compared with PBO in NASH patients.

METHODS

A state-transition model was developed to perform a cost-utility analysis comparing two treatment strategies, PBO and OCA 25 mg, from a Canadian public payer perspective. The model time horizon was lifetime with annual cycle lengths. Cost and utility parameters were discounted at 1.5% annually. The efficacy data were obtained from the REGENERATE trial, and costs and utilities were derived from other published literature. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Treatment with OCA led to reductions of 3.58% in decompensated cirrhosis cases, 3.95% in hepatocellular carcinoma, 7.88% in liver transplant, and 6.01% in liver-related death. However, at an annual price of CAD $36,000, OCA failed to be cost-effective compared with PBO at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $815,514 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). An 88% reduction in drug price to an annual cost of $4,300 would make OCA cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

OCA failed to be cost-effective compared with PBO, despite demonstrating clinical benefits due to a high drug cost. A significant price reduction would be needed to make the drug cost-effective.

A phase 2, proof of concept, randomised controlled trial of berberine ursodeoxycholate in patients with presumed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and type 2 diabetes

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis is frequently associated with diabetes and may cause progressive liver disease. Current treatment options are limited. Here we report on a prospective, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of two doses of HTD1801 (berberine ursodeoxycholate, an ionic salt of berberine and ursodeoxycholic acid), versus placebo that was conducted in 100 subjects with fatty liver disease and diabetes (NCT03656744). Treatment was for 18 weeks with a primary endpoint of reduction in liver fat content measured by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction. Key secondary endpoints included improvement in glycemic control, liver-associated enzymes and safety. The pre-specified primary endpoint was met. Thus, subjects receiving 1000 mg twice a day of berberine ursodeoxycholate had significantly greater reduction in liver fat content than in placebo recipients (mean absolute decrease -4.8% vs. -2.0% (p = 0.011). Compared to placebo, subjects receiving this dose also experienced significant improvement in glycemic control as well as reductions in liver-associated enzymes and significant weight loss. Diarrhea and abdominal discomfort were the most frequently reported adverse events. We conclude that berberine ursodeoxycholate has a broad spectrum of metabolic activity in patients with presumed NASH and diabetes. It is relatively well tolerated and merits further development as a treatment for NASH with diabetes.

Cross-talk between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease: Implications for future trial design

The natural history of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is still not fully elucidated. Patients with NAFLD have a low risk of liver complications, unless substantial liver fibrosis has developed. On the other hand, NAFLD has been linked with excess metabolic and cardiovascular complications. Therapies targeting common pathways may benefit both NAFLD and underlying cardiometabolic risk. Therefore, there is a rationale for considering cardiovascular endpoints in the context of NAFLD trials and, vice-versa, to consider the concomitant presence of NAFLD in drug development for cardiometabolic disorders. This manuscript provides a framework for consideration for future trials examining the inter-relationship between cardiovascular disease and NAFLD.

Outcomes and potential surrogate markers for future clinical trials of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has emerged as a major public health problem, and the burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis is projected to increase by 64%-156% by 2030. The threat is aggravated by the fact that are currently no approved drugs for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. In this paper, we review the main challenges to drug development in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis, and describe the opportunities brought by the advances in the understanding of the clinical and pathophysiological nuances of cirrhosis. The design of therapeutic regimens for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis will vary according to the specific cirrhosis substage (compensated vs decompensated), and the specific mechanistic basis of therapy, targeted either at improving aetiology-specific pathways and/or at more general aetiology-agnostic processes. The understanding of the probabilistic expectations for the whole range of potential outcomes, rooted at different mechanistic drivers at each specific substage, will be essential in order to choose adequate estimands and therapeutic strategies for clinical trials and individual patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis. Finally, we provide a summary of the main pitfalls and uncertainties in the design of clinical trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis and discuss potential biomarkers for use in trials and practice for these patients.

Increasing incidence of non-HBV- and non-HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma: single-institution 20-year study

Background

We previously reported on the trends in the etiologies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosed in patients between 1995 and 2009. The aims of our updated study were to evaluate the incidence, nonhepatitis B and nonhepatitis C viral (NBNC) etiologies, and clinical characteristics of HCCs occurring in patients between 1992 and 2018.

Methods

The study enrolled 2171 consecutive patients with HCC between 1992 and 2018. Their medical records were reviewed. The patients were divided into two groups, patients with early diagnoses from 1992 to 2009 and those with late diagnoses from 2010 to 2018.

Results

NBNC-HCC occurred in 514 patients (23.6%). The percentage of patients with HCC who had NBNC-HCC increased from 26.5% in 2009 to 46.3% in 2018. Patients with NBNC-HCC were older (median ages from 67 to 73 years). Type 2 diabetes mellitus (48.5–60.3%: P = 0.008), hypertension (48.5–57.4%: P = 0.047), and hyperlipidemia (39.2–53.8%: P = 0.001) increased significantly in recent years. The median FIB-4 index decreased (4.37–3.61: P = 0.026) and the median platelet count increased (15.1–17.9 × 10⁴/μL: P = 0.013). Among the 514 patients with NBNC-HCC, 194 underwent hepatic resection for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (15%), alcoholic liver disease (ALD) (29%), and cryptogenic hepatitis (56%). Cirrhosis was detected in 72%, 39%, and 16% of patients with NASH, ALD, and cryptogenic hepatitis, respectively. The prevalence of cirrhosis in patients with NASH was significantly higher than the prevalence of cirrhosis in the other groups (P < 0.001). Overall, 70% of the non-malignant liver tissue of patients with NBNC-HCC was not involved with cirrhosis. On the other hand, the median FIB-4 index in patients with cryptogenic HCC was 2.56, which was a significantly lower value than those values in the other groups of patients. The FIB-4 index considered as one of useful screening of HCC.

Conclusions

The prevalence of NBNC-HCC has increased rapidly even in a regional university hospital. Metabolic syndrome may be an important risk factor for HCC. HCC was also found in patients with non-cirrhotic livers. The FIB-4 index may be a useful screening method for HCC in patients with NBNC.

Multisite multivendor validation of a quantitative MRI and CT compatible fat phantom

PURPOSE

Chemical shift-encoded magnetic resonance imaging enables accurate quantification of liver fat content though estimation of proton density fat-fraction (PDFF). Computed tomography (CT) is capable of quantifying fat, based on decreased attenuation with increased fat concentration. Current quantitative fat phantoms do not accurately mimic the CT number of human liver. The purpose of this work was to develop and validate an optimized phantom that simultaneously mimics the MRI and CT signals of fatty liver.

METHODS

An agar-based phantom containing 12 vials doped with iodinated contrast, and with a granular range of fat fractions was designed and constructed within a novel CT and MR compatible spherical housing design. A four-site, three-vendor validation study was performed. MRI (1.5T and 3T) and CT images were obtained using each vendor's PDFF and CT reconstruction, respectively. An ROI centered in each vial was placed to measure MRI-PDFF (%) and CT number (HU). Mixed-effects model, linear regression, and Bland-Altman analysis were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

MRI-PDFF agreed closely with nominal PDFF values across both field strengths and all MRI vendors. A linear relationship (slope = -0.54 ± 0.01%/HU, intercept = 37.15 ± 0.03%) with an R² of 0.999 was observed between MRI-PDFF and CT number, replicating established in vivo signal behavior. Excellent test-retest repeatability across vendors (MRI: mean = -0.04%, 95% limits of agreement = [-0.24%, 0.16%]; CT: mean = 0.16 HU, 95% limits of agreement = [-0.15HU, 0.47HU]) and good reproducibility using GE scanners (MRI: mean = -0.21%, 95% limits of agreement = [-1.47%, 1.06%]; CT: mean = -0.18HU, 95% limits of agreement = [-1.96HU, 1.6HU]) were demonstrated.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed fat phantom successfully mimicked quantitative liver signal for both MRI and CT. The proposed fat phantom in this study may facilitate broader application and harmonization of liver fat quantification techniques using MRI and CT across institutions, vendors and imaging platforms.

Transition to decompensation and acute-on-chronic liver failure: Role of predisposing factors and precipitating events

The transition from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis results from a complex interplay of predisposing and precipitating factors and represents an inflection point in the probability of a patient surviving. With the progression of cirrhosis, patients accumulate multiple disorders (e.g. altered liver architecture, portal hypertension, local and systemic inflammation, bacterial translocation, gut dysbiosis, kidney vasoconstriction) that predispose them to decompensation. On the background of these factors, precipitating events (e.g. bacterial infection, alcoholic hepatitis, variceal haemorrhage, drug-induced liver injury, flare of liver disease) lead to acute decompensation (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, jaundice) and/or organ failures, which characterise acute-on-chronic liver failure. In this review paper, we will discuss the current hypotheses and latest evidences regarding predisposing and precipitating factors associated with the transition to decompensated liver disease.

Poor Outcomes of Cirrhosis due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Compared With Hepatitis B After Decompensation With Ascites

INTRODUCTION

Decompensation with ascites portends a poor prognosis in cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhosis after decompensation with ascites.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate the outcomes of patients with NASH and HBV cirrhosis who were admitted to hospital for first-onset ascites from January 1, 2004, to June 30, 2015. They were followed up until death, liver transplantation, or loss to follow up.

RESULTS

Patients with NASH had lower median (interquartile range) Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (11 [9-14] vs 14 [11-17], P < 0.001). Over 60 months, patients with NASH cirrhosis had higher cumulative incidence of dilutional hyponatremia (P < 0.001) and refractory ascites (P = 0.028). They also had higher cumulative incidence of cirrhosis-related deaths and liver transplantation compared with HBV cirrhosis (65.7%; [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.6-75.4] vs 42.5% [95% CI 32.4-55.2], P = 0.008). Multivariable competing risk analysis showed that NASH (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 1.88 [95% CI 1.14-3.11], P = 0.014), non-Chinese ethnicity (sHR 1.63 [95% CI 1.06-2.50], P = 0.027), history of hepatocellular carcinoma (sHR 1.76 [95% CI 1.05-2.95], P = 0.033), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (sHR 1.70 [95% CI 1.09-2.65], P = 0.020), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score ≥15 (sHR 3.26 [95% CI 2.11-5.05], P < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor transplant-free survival.

DISCUSSION

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH had much poorer prognosis compared with HBV with more complications and greater healthcare resource utilization. Greater awareness is necessary for early diagnosis of NASH before decompensation.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a global prevalence of 25% and is a leading cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. NAFLD encompasses a disease continuum from steatosis with or without mild inflammation (non-alcoholic fatty liver), to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), which is characterised by necroinflammation and faster fibrosis progression than non-alcoholic fatty liver. NAFLD has a bidirectional association with components of the metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes increases the risk of cirrhosis and related complications. Although the leading causes of death in people with NAFLD are cardiovascular disease and extrahepatic malignancy, advanced liver fibrosis is a key prognostic marker for liver-related outcomes and overall mortality, and can be assessed with combinations of non-invasive tests. Patients with cirrhosis should be screened for hepatocellular carcinoma and oesophageal varices. There is currently no approved therapy for NAFLD, although several drugs are in advanced stages of development. Because of the complex pathophysiology and substantial heterogeneity of disease phenotypes, combination treatment is likely to be required for many patients with NAFLD. Healthy lifestyle and weight reduction remain crucial to the prevention and treatment of NAFLD.

ABIDE: An Accurate Predictive Model of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver-Related Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly important cause of liver cirrhosis and subsequent complications. We retrospectively developed and validated a model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis and compared this with currently available models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Baseline variables from an international cohort of 299 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with compensated cirrhosis were examined to construct a model using competing risk multivariate regression and Akaike/Bayesian information criteria. Validation was performed in 244 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD cirrhosis from the United States. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years (range 2.4-14.1) and 5.4 years (range 1.5-13.8), hepatic decompensation occurred in 81 and 132 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation (Aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, type 2 Diabetes, and Esophageal varices) were combined into the ABIDE model. Patients with a score ≥4.1 compared with those with a score <4.1 had a higher risk of decompensation (subhazard ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-11.2; P < 0.001), a greater 5-year cumulative incidence (37% vs. 6%, P < 0.001), and shorter mean duration to decompensation (3.8 vs 6.7 years, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the ABIDE model at 5 years was good in the derivation (tAUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) and validation cohorts (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81) and was significantly more accurate than the NFS (0.72), FIB-4 (0.74), MELD (0.69), CTP (0.72), and ALBI-FIB-4 (0.73) (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with NAFLD and compensated cirrhosis, ABIDE, a predictive model of routine clinical measures, predicts future hepatic decompensation.

Frailty in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Cirrhosis: A Comparison with Alcoholic Cirrhosis, Risk Patterns, and Impact on Prognosis

BACKGROUND

Physical frailty increases susceptibility to stressors and predicts adverse outcomes of cirrhosis. Data on disease course in different etiologies are scarce, so we aimed to compare the prevalence and risk factors of frailty and its impact on prognosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFLD) and alcoholic (ALD) cirrhosis. Patients and Methods. Cirrhosis registry RH7 operates since 2014 and includes hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis, pre-LT evaluation, or curable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). From the RH7, we identified 280 ALD and 105 NAFLD patients with at least 6 months of follow-up.

RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD compared with ALD were older and had a higher proportion of females, higher body mass index (BMI) and mid-arm circumference (MAC), lower MELD score, CRP, and lower proportion of refractory ascites. The liver frailty index did not differ, and the prevalence of HCC was higher (17.1 vs. 6.8%, p=0.002). Age, sex, serum albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) were independent predictors of frailty. In NAFLD, frailty was also associated with BMI and MAC and in ALD, with the MELD score. The Cox model adjusted for age, sex, MELD, CRP, HCC, and LFI showed that NAFLD patients had higher all-cause mortality (HR = 1.88 95% CI 1.32-2.67, p < 0.001) and were more sensitive to the increase in LFI (HR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.05-2.2).

CONCLUSION

Patients with NAFLD cirrhosis had a comparable prevalence of frailty compared to ALD. Although prognostic indices showed less advanced disease, NAFLD patients were more sensitive to frailty, which reflected their higher overall disease burden and led to higher all-cause mortality.

Global epidemiology of NAFLD-related HCC: trends, predictions, risk factors and prevention

One quarter of the global population is estimated to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The incidence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is projected to increase by up to 56% in the next 10 years. NAFLD is already the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA, France and the UK. Globally, the prevalence of NAFLD-related HCC is likely to increase concomitantly with the growing obesity epidemic. The estimated annual incidence of HCC ranges from 0.5% to 2.6% among patients with NASH cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC among patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD is lower, approximately 0.1 to 1.3 per 1,000 patient-years. Although the incidence of NAFLD-related HCC is lower than that of HCC of other aetiologies such as hepatitis C, more people have NAFLD than other liver diseases. Urgent measures that increase global awareness and tackle the metabolic risk factors are necessary to reduce the impending burden of NAFLD-related HCC. Emerging evidence indicates that reduced immune surveillance, increased gut inflammation and gut dysbiosis are potential key steps in tumorigenesis. In this Review, we discuss the global epidemiology, projections and risk factors for NAFLD-related HCC, and propose preventive strategies to tackle this growing problem.

Economic burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis with significant fibrosis in Thailand

Background

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has been recognised as a significant form of chronic liver disease and a common cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, resulting in a considerable financial burden on healthcare resources. Currently, there is no information regarding the economic burden of NASH in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of NASH in Thailand as a lesson learned for LMICs.

Methods

To estimate the healthcare costs and prevalence of NASH with significant fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥ 2) in the general Thai population, an eleven-state lifetime horizon Markov model with 1-year cycle length was performed. The model comprised Thai population aged 18 years and older. The cohort size was based on Thailand Official Statistic Registration Systems. The incidence of NASH, transitional probabilities, and costs-of-illness were based on previously published literature, including systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The age-specific prevalence of NASH was based on Thai NASH registry data. Costs were expressed in 2019 US Dollars ($). As we undertook analysis from the payer perspective, only direct medical costs were included. All future costs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

The estimated total number of patients with significant NASH was 2.9 million cases in 2019, based on a NASH prevalence of 5.74%. The total lifetime cost of significant NASH was $15.2 billion ($5,147 per case), representing approximately 3% of the 2019 GDP of Thailand. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the lifetime costs of significant NASH varied from $11.4 billion to $18.2 billion.

Conclusions

The economic burden associated with NASH is substantial in Thailand. This prompts clinicians and policy makers to consider strategies for NASH prevention and management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01720-w.

Natural History of NAFLD

The epidemiology and the current burden of chronic liver disease are changing globally, with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) becoming the most frequent cause of liver disease in close relationship with the global epidemics of obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. The clinical phenotypes of NAFLD are very heterogeneous in relationship with multiple pathways involved in the disease progression. In the absence of a specific treatment for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), it is important to understand the natural history of the disease, to identify and to optimize the control of factors that are involved in disease progression. In this paper we propose a critical analysis of factors that are involved in the progression of the liver damage and the occurrence of extra-hepatic complications (cardiovascular diseases, extra hepatic cancer) in patients with NAFLD. We also briefly discuss the impact of the heterogeneity of the clinical phenotype of NAFLD on the clinical practice globally and at the individual level.

CD36 as a Molecular Target of Functional DNA Aptamer NAFLD01 Selected against NAFLD Cells

The aim of this study was to identify the target of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cell-specific aptamer NAFLD01 and investigate its effect on lipid metabolism in vitro. A distinct membrane protein of NAFLD cells pulled down by NAFLD01 was analyzed by mass spectrometry to determine target candidates, and affinity of NAFLD01 to target-protein-silent NAFLD cells was detected to validate it. Knockdown of CD36 abolished the binding of NAFLD01, and its binding affinity was associated with membrane-bound CD36. NAFLD01 affinity for NAFLD cells was proportional to the CD36 expression level. Moreover, compared to random sequences, NAFLD01 showed better recognition for both mouse and human tissue sections of NAFLD. Importantly, NAFLD01 could ameliorate liver fat deposition through interaction with CD36 in vitro. Therefore, aptamer NAFLD01 could act as an effective and safe targeted drug for NAFLD. NAFLD01 is the first reported CD36-specific aptamer. This aptamer can improve hepatocyte steatosis via specifically binding to CD36. This study provides a molecular tool to investigate the mechanism of CD36 in NAFLD.