BMI and Mortality in UK Biobank: Revised Estimates Using Mendelian Randomization

Is the relationship between chronic pain and mortality causal? A propensity score analysis

ABSTRACT

Chronic pain is a serious and prevalent condition that can affect many facets of life. However, uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the association between chronic pain and death and whether the association is causal. We investigate the pain-mortality relationship using data from 19,971 participants aged 51+ years in the 1998 wave of the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. Propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting are combined with Cox proportional hazards models to investigate whether exposure to chronic pain (moderate or severe) has a causal effect on mortality over a 20-year follow-up period. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Before adjusting for confounding, we find a strong association between chronic pain and mortality (HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.26-1.38). After adjusting for confounding by sociodemographic and health variables using a range of propensity score methods, the estimated increase in mortality hazard caused by pain is more modest (5%-9%) and the results are often also compatible with no causal effect (95% CIs for HRs narrowly contain 1.0). This attenuation highlights the role of confounders of the pain-mortality relationship as potentially modifiable upstream risk factors for mortality. Posing the depressive symptoms variable as a mediator rather than a confounder of the pain-mortality relationship resulted in stronger evidence of a modest causal effect of pain on mortality (eg, HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.15). Future work is required to model exposure-confounder feedback loops and investigate the potentially cumulative causal effect of chronic pain at multiple time points on mortality.

Body mass index and all-cause mortality in HUNT and UK biobank studies: revised non-linear Mendelian randomisation analyses

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the shape of the causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality risk in a Mendelian randomisation framework.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomisation analyses of two prospective population-based cohorts.

SETTING

Individuals of European ancestries living in Norway or the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

56 150 participants from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) in Norway and 366 385 participants from UK Biobank recruited by postal invitation.

OUTCOMES

All-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular, cancer, non-cardiovascular non-cancer).

RESULTS

A previously published non-linear Mendelian randomisation analysis of these data using the residual stratification method suggested a J-shaped association between genetically predicted BMI and mortality outcomes with the lowest mortality risk at a BMI of around 25 kg/m2. However, the 'constant genetic effect' assumption required by this method is violated. The reanalysis of these data using the more reliable doubly-ranked stratification method provided some indication of a J-shaped relationship, but with much less certainty as there was less precision in estimates at the lower end of the BMI distribution. Evidence for a harmful effect of reducing BMI at low BMI levels was only present in some analyses, and where present, only below 20 kg/m2. A harmful effect of increasing BMI for all-cause mortality was evident above 25 kg/m2, for cardiovascular mortality above 24 kg/m2, for cancer mortality above 30 kg/m2 and for non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality above 26 kg/m2. In UK Biobank, the association between genetically predicted BMI and mortality at high BMI levels was stronger in women than in men.

CONCLUSION

This research challenges findings from previous conventional observational epidemiology and Mendelian randomisation investigations that the lowest level of mortality risk is at a BMI level of around 25 kg/m2. Our results provide some evidence that reductions in BMI will increase mortality risk for a small proportion of the population, and clear evidence that increases in BMI will increase mortality risk for those with BMI above 25 kg/m2.

Independent relevance of adiposity measures to coronary heart disease risk among 0.5 million adults in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Evidence on body fat distribution shows opposing effects of waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) for coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to investigate the causality and the shape of such associations.

METHODS

UK Biobank is a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million adults aged 40-69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of measured and genetically predicted body mass index (BMI), WC, HC and waist-to-hip ratio with incident CHD were obtained from Cox models. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to assess causality. The analysis included 456 495 participants (26 225 first-ever CHD events) without prior CHD.

RESULTS

All measures of adiposity demonstrated strong, positive and approximately log-linear associations with CHD risk over a median follow-up of 12.7 years. For HC, however, the association became inverse given the BMI and WC (HR per usual SD 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97). Associations for BMI and WC remained independently positive after adjustment for other adiposity measures and were similar (1.14, 1.13-1.16 and 1.18, 1.15-1.20, respectively), with WC displaying stronger associations among women. Blood pressure, plasma lipids and dysglycaemia accounted for much of the observed excess risk. MR results were generally consistent with the observational, implying causality.

CONCLUSIONS

Body fat distribution measures displayed similar associations with CHD risk as BMI except for HC, which was inversely associated with CHD risk (given WC and BMI). These findings suggest that different measures of body fat distribution likely influence CHD risk through both overlapping and independent mechanisms.

Challenges in undertaking nonlinear Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used method that exploits the unique properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference in relationships between exposures and outcomes. Nonlinear MR allows estimation of the shape of these relationships. In a previous paper, the authors applied linear and nonlinear MR to estimate the effect of BMI on mortality in UK Biobank, providing evidence for a J-shaped association. However, it is now clear that there are problems with widely used nonlinear MR methods, which draws attention to the likely erroneous nature of the conclusions regarding the shapes of several explored relationships. Here, the authors explore the utility and likely biases of these nonlinear MR methods with the use of a negative control design. Although there remains good evidence for a causal effect of higher BMI increasing the risk of mortality, the pattern of this association across different levels of BMI requires further characterization.

Total and Regional Fat/Muscle Mass Ratio and Risks of Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

Background To evaluate the sex-specific associations of total and regional fat/muscle mass ratio (FMR) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality, and to explore the underlying mechanisms driven by cardiometabolites and inflammatory cells. We compared the predictive value of FMRs to body mass index. Methods and Results This population-based, prospective cohort study included 468 885 UK Biobank participants free of CVD at baseline. Fat mass and muscle mass were estimated using a bioelectrical impedance assessment device. FMR was calculated as fat mass divided by muscle mass in corresponding body parts (total body, trunk, arm, and leg). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and mediation analyses were used. During 12.5 years of follow-up, we documented 49 936 CVD cases and 4158 CVD deaths. Higher total FMR was associated with an increased risk of incident CVD (hazard ratios [HRs] were 1.63 and 1.83 for men and women, respectively), ischemic heart disease (men: HR, 1.61; women: HR, 1.81), myocardial infarction (men: HR, 1.72; women: HR, 1.49), and congestive heart failure (men: HR, 2.25; women: HR, 2.57). The positive associations of FMRs with mortality from total CVD or its subtypes were significant mainly in trunk and arm for male patients (P for trend <0.05). We also identified 8 cardiometabolites and 5 inflammatory cells that partially mediated FMR-CVD associations. FMRs were modestly better at discriminating cardiovascular mortality risk. Conclusions Higher total and regional FMRs were associated with an increased risk of CVD and mortality, partly mediated through cardiometabolites and inflammatory cells. Early monitoring of FMR should be considered to alleviate CVD risk. FMRs were superior to body mass index in predicting CVD mortality.

Leveraging family data to design Mendelian randomization that is provably robust to population stratification

Mendelian randomization (MR) has emerged as a powerful approach to leverage genetic instruments to infer causality between pairs of traits in observational studies. However, the results of such studies are susceptible to biases owing to weak instruments, as well as the confounding effects of population stratification and horizontal pleiotropy. Here, we show that family data can be leveraged to design MR tests that are provably robust to confounding from population stratification, assortative mating, and dynastic effects. We show in simulations that our approach, MR-Twin, is robust to confounding from population stratification and is not affected by weak instrument bias, whereas standard MR methods yield inflated false positive rates. We then conduct an exploratory analysis of MR-Twin and other MR methods applied to 121 trait pairs in the UK Biobank data set. Our results suggest that confounding from population stratification can lead to false positives for existing MR methods, whereas MR-Twin is immune to this type of confounding, and that MR-Twin can help assess whether traditional approaches may be inflated owing to confounding from population stratification.

The association between body fatness and mortality among breast cancer survivors: results from a prospective cohort study

Evidence linking body fatness to breast cancer (BC) prognosis is limited. While it seems that excess adiposity is associated with poorer BC survival, there is uncertainty over whether weight changes reduce mortality. This study aimed to assess the association between body fatness and weight changes pre- and postdiagnosis and overall mortality and BC-specific mortality among BC survivors. Our study included 13,624 BC survivors from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with a mean follow-up of 8.6 years after diagnosis. Anthropometric data were obtained at recruitment for all cases and at a second assessment during follow-up for a subsample. We measured general obesity using the body mass index (BMI), whereas waist circumference and A Body Shape Index were used as measures of abdominal obesity. The annual weight change was calculated for cases with two weight assessments. The association with overall mortality and BC-specific mortality were based on a multivariable Cox and Fine and Gray models, respectively. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to investigate the potential causal association. Five-unit higher BMI prediagnosis was associated with a 10% (95% confidence interval: 5-15%) increase in overall mortality and 7% (0-15%) increase in dying from BC. Women with abdominal obesity demonstrated a 23% (11-37%) increase in overall mortality, independent of the association of BMI. Results related to weight change postdiagnosis suggested a U-shaped relationship with BC-specific mortality, with higher risk associated with losing weight or gaining > 2% of the weight annually. MR analyses were consistent with the identified associations. Our results support the detrimental association of excess body fatness on the survival of women with BC. Substantial weight changes postdiagnosis may be associated with poorer survival.

Comparison of intergenerational instrumental variable analyses of body mass index and mortality in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

An increasing proportion of people have a body mass index (BMI) classified as overweight or obese and published studies disagree whether this will be beneficial or detrimental to health. We applied and evaluated two intergenerational instrumental variable methods to estimate the average causal effect of BMI on mortality in a cohort with many deaths: the parents of UK Biobank participants.

METHODS

In Cox regression models, parental BMI was instrumented by offspring BMI using an 'offspring as instrument' (OAI) estimation and by offspring BMI-related genetic variants in a 'proxy-genotype Mendelian randomization' (PGMR) estimation.

RESULTS

Complete-case analyses were performed in parents of 233 361 UK Biobank participants with full phenotypic, genotypic and covariate data. The PGMR method suggested that higher BMI increased mortality with hazard ratios per kg/m2 of 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.04) for mothers and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05) for fathers. The OAI method gave considerably higher estimates, which varied according to the parent-offspring pairing between 1.08 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.10; mother-son) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.29; father-daughter).

CONCLUSION

Both methods supported a causal role of higher BMI increasing mortality, although caution is required regarding the immediate causal interpretation of these exact values. Evidence of instrument invalidity from measured covariates was limited for the OAI method and minimal for the PGMR method. The methods are complementary for interrogating the average putative causal effects because the biases are expected to differ between them.

Metabolic profiling of MRI-measured liver fat in the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

Liver fat associates with obesity-related metabolic disturbances and may precede incident diseases. Metabolomic profiles of liver fat in the UK Biobank were investigated.

METHODS

Regression models assessed the associations between 180 metabolites and proton density liver fat fraction (PDFF) measured 5 years later through magnetic resonance imaging, as the difference (in SD units) of each log metabolite measure with 1-SD higher PDFF among those without chronic disease and not taking statins, and by diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.

RESULTS

After accounting for confounders, multiple metabolites were associated positively with liver fat (p < 0.0001 for 152 traits), particularly extremely large and very large lipoprotein particle concentrations, very low-density lipoprotein triglycerides, small high-density lipoprotein particles, glycoprotein acetyls, monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids, and amino acids. Extremely large and large high-density lipoprotein concentrations had strong inverse associations with liver fat. Associations were broadly comparable among those with versus without vascular metabolic conditions, although negative, rather than positive, associations were observed between intermediate-density and large low-density lipoprotein particles among those with BMI ≥25 kg/m² , diabetes, or cardiovascular diseases. Metabolite principal components showed a 15% significant improvement in risk prediction for PDFF relative to BMI, which was twice as great (but nonsignificant) compared with conventional high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides.

CONCLUSIONS

Hazardous metabolomic profiles are associated with ectopic hepatic fat and are relevant to risk of vascular-metabolic disease.

Association of Body Mass Index and the Risk of Gastro-Esophageal Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Study in a Japanese Population

There are growing concerns that body mass index (BMI) is related to cancer risk at various anatomical sites, including the upper gastrointestinal tract, and the existence of a causal relationship remains unclear. The Mendelian randomization (MR) method uses instrumental genetic variables of risk factors to explore whether a causal relationship exists while preventing confounding. In our study, genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from the BioBank Japan (BBJ) project were used. Genetic variants were chosen as instrumental variables using inverse-variance weighting (IVW), MR-Egger regression and weighted-median methods to estimate the causal relationship between BMI and the risk of gastro-esophageal cancer. We found no evidence to support a causal association between BMI and risk of gastric cancer [odds ratio (OR) =0.99 per standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI; 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.76-1.30); P = 0.96] or esophageal cancer [0.78(0.50-1.22); P = 0.28] using the IVW method. Sensitivity analysis did not reveal any sign of horizontal pleiotropy. Additionally, in the gender-stratified analysis, no causal association was found. Findings from this study do not support a causal effect of BMI on gastro-esophageal cancer risk. However, we cannot rule out a modest or nonlinear effect of BMI.

Obesity increases heart failure incidence and mortality: observational and Mendelian randomization studies totalling over 1 million individuals

AIMS

Whether high body mass index (BMI) causally influences development and prognosis of heart failure has implications for clinical practice. We tested the hypotheses that high BMI causally influences heart failure incidence and mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using observational and Mendelian randomization causal, genetic analyses, we studied 106 121 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study, 18 407 from the Copenhagen City Heart Study, and 977 323 from publicly available databases. In observational analyses in the Copenhagen studies with 10 years of median follow-up, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios per 1 kg/m2 increment of BMI were 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.07; P < 0.001; n = 124 528; events = 6589) for heart failure incidence, 1.04 (1.03-1.06; P < 0.001; n = 124 528; events = 1237) for heart failure mortality, and 1.01 (1.00-1.01; P < 0.001; n = 124 528; events = 24 144) for all-cause mortality. In genetic analyses in the Copenhagen studies, the age and sex adjusted causal risk ratios per 1 kg/m2 increment of BMI were 1.19 (1.05-1.36; P = 0.008; n = 118 200; events = 6541) for heart failure incidence, 1.27 (0.82-1.98; P = 0.28; n = 118 200; events = 889) for heart failure mortality, and 1.11 (1.02-1.22; P = 0.022; n = 118 200; events = 16 814) for all-cause mortality. Finally, combining genetic data from the Copenhagen studies, the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits, the Heart Failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic Targets, and the UK Biobank, the unadjusted causal risk ratios per 1 kg/m2 increment of BMI were 1.39 (1.27-1.52; P < 0.001; n = 1 095 523; events = 53 850) for heart failure incidence, 1.18 (1.00-1.38; P = 0.05; n = 576 853; events = 2373) for heart failure mortality, and 1.02 (1.00-1.04; P = 0.03; n = 576 853; events = 44 734) for all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

High BMI causally increases the risk of both heart failure incidence and mortality.

Leveraging family data to design Mendelian Randomization that is provably robust to population stratification

Mendelian Randomization (MR) has emerged as a powerful approach to leverage genetic instruments to infer causality between pairs of traits in observational studies. However, the results of such studies are susceptible to biases due to weak instruments as well as the confounding effects of population stratification and horizontal pleiotropy. Here, we show that family data can be leveraged to design MR tests that are provably robust to confounding from population stratification, assortative mating, and dynastic effects. We demonstrate in simulations that our approach, MR-Twin, is robust to confounding from population stratification and is not affected by weak instrument bias, while standard MR methods yield inflated false positive rates. We applied MR-Twin to 121 trait pairs in the UK Biobank dataset and found that MR-Twin identifies likely causal trait pairs and does not identify trait pairs that are unlikely to be causal. Our results suggest that confounding from population stratification can lead to false positives for existing MR methods, while MR-Twin is immune to this type of confounding.

Genomics and phenomics of body mass index reveals a complex disease network

Elevated body mass index (BMI) is heritable and associated with many health conditions that impact morbidity and mortality. The study of the genetic association of BMI across a broad range of common disease conditions offers the opportunity to extend current knowledge regarding the breadth and depth of adiposity-related diseases. We identify 906 (364 novel) and 41 (6 novel) genome-wide significant loci for BMI among participants of European (N~1.1 million) and African (N~100,000) ancestry, respectively. Using a BMI genetic risk score including 2446 variants, 316 diagnoses are associated in the Million Veteran Program, with 96.5% showing increased risk. A co-morbidity network analysis reveals seven disease communities containing multiple interconnected diseases associated with BMI as well as extensive connections across communities. Mendelian randomization analysis confirms numerous phenotypes across a breadth of organ systems, including conditions of the circulatory (heart failure, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation), genitourinary (chronic renal failure), respiratory (respiratory failure, asthma), musculoskeletal and dermatologic systems that are deeply interconnected within and across the disease communities. This work shows that the complex genetic architecture of BMI associates with a broad range of major health conditions, supporting the need for comprehensive approaches to prevent and treat obesity.

The relation of aortic dimensions and obesity in adults with Marfan or Loeys-Dietz syndrome

Background

Aortic aneurysm and aortic dissection can have a major impact on the life expectancy of Marfan syndrome (MFS) or Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) patients. Although obesity can influence the development of aortic complications, evidence on whether obesity influences the development of aortic aneurysm or dissection in MFS and LDS is limited. The aim of the present study was to elucidate the relationship between aortic size and body composition, assessed by modern bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in MFS/LDS-patients.

Methods

In this exploratory cross-sectional study in MFS or LDS patients, enrolled between June 2020 and May 2022, 34 patients received modern BIA and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (n=32) or computed tomography (CT) imaging (n=2) of the entire aorta. A P value of <0.05 was considered significant.

Results

Fifty-one patients (66% female; mean age: 37.7±11.7; range, 17-68 years) with MFS or LDS were enrolled; 34 patients, 27 with MFS and 7 with LDS, underwent aortic MRI or CT scanning. The mean aortic length was 503.7±58.7 mm, and the mean thoracic aortic length and abdominal aortic length were 351.5±52.4 and 152.2±27.4 mm, respectively. The aortic bulb and the ascending aorta were measured only in the non-surgically repaired patients. Fifteen MFS (88.2%) and two LDS (40.0%) patients had an aortic aneurysm. In these, the aortic bulb tended to be larger in MFS than in LDS patients [42.6×41.9×41.2 vs. 37.8×37.4×36.8 mm; P=0.07 (-1.1; 9.1); P=0.07 (-1.2; 8.4); P=0.07 (-1.5; 7.9)]. BIA revealed mean body fat levels of 31.6%±8.7% (range, 9.5-53.5%), indicating that 18 patients (52.9%) were obese. There was a significant correlation between body fat content and thoracic aortic length (R=-0.377; P=0.02), muscle mass and total aortic length (R=0.359; P=0.03), thoracic aortic length (R=0.399; P=0.02), extracellular mass (ECM), and total aortic length (R=0.354; P=0.04), and connective tissue and aortic diameters at the aortic arch (R=0.511; P=0.002), aortic isthmus (R=0.565; P<0.001), and abdominal aorta (R=0.486; P=0.004). Older age was correlated with wider aortic arch, isthmus, and abdominal aorta. Male patients had a longer aorta.

Conclusions

While a slender habitus is commonly known for MFS and LDS patients, our data show that many MFS and LDS patients (especially female) do not fit this phenotypic characteristic and are obese, which is associated with a more severe aortic phenotype. This topic should be included in the clinical assessment of affected MFS and LDS patients, in addition to measurement of the aortic diameters. Physicians should systematically screen MFS and LDS patients for obesity, educate them about the potential risk of resulting aortic complications, and encourage them to adopt a healthy lifestyle, that includes (mild) exercise and a balanced diet.

Association of Lifestyle Behaviors With Hearing Loss: The UK Biobank Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the combined association of five healthy lifestyle behaviors with hearing loss (HL) in the UK Biobank cohort, established between 2006 and 2010 in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

This longitudinal analysis included 61,958 participants aged 40 to 70 years from April 2007 to December 2016. The healthy behaviors examined were: never smoking, high level of physical activity, high diet quality, moderate alcohol intake, and optimal sleep. Hearing loss was self-reported at baseline and in any physical exam during the follow-up.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 3.9±2.5 years, 3072 (5.0%) participants reported incident HL. After adjustment for potential confounders, including age, social factors, exposure to high-intensity noise, ototoxic medication, and comorbidity, the HRs of HL associated with having 1, 2, 3, and 4 to 5 vs 0 behaviors were: 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.96), 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.96), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.94), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.97), respectively (P for trend, 0.02). We estimated that the population attributable risk percent for not adhering to any five low-risk lifestyle behaviors was 15.6%.

CONCLUSION

In this large study, an increasing number of healthy behaviors was associated with decreased risk of HL.

Thirty Obesity Myths, Misunderstandings, and/or Oversimplifications: An Obesity Medicine Association (OMA) Clinical Practice Statement (CPS) 2022

Background

This Obesity Medicine Association (OMA) Clinical Practice Statement (CPS) is intended to provide clinicians an overview of 30 common obesity myths, misunderstandings, and/or oversimplifications.

Methods

The scientific support for this CPS is based upon published citations, clinical perspectives of OMA authors, and peer review by the Obesity Medicine Association leadership.

Results

This CPS discusses 30 common obesity myths, misunderstandings, and/or oversimplifications, utilizing referenced scientific publications such as the integrative use of other published OMA CPSs to help explain the applicable physiology/pathophysiology.

Conclusions

This Obesity Medicine Association (OMA) Clinical Practice Statement (CPS) on 30 common obesity myths, misunderstandings, and/or oversimplifications is one of a series of OMA CPSs designed to assist clinicians in the care of patients with the disease of obesity. Knowledge of the underlying science may assist the obesity medicine clinician improve the care of patients with obesity.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Effects of an individualized and progressive multicomponent exercise program on blood pressure, cardiorespiratory fitness, and body composition in long-term care residents: Randomized controlled trial

This study analyzed the effects of an individualized and progressive multicomponent exercise program on blood pressure, cardiorespiratory fitness, and body composition in long-term care residents. This was a single-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial performed in 10 long-term care settings and involved 112 participants. Participants were randomly assigned to a control group or an intervention group. The control group participated in routine activities; the intervention group participated in a six-month individualized and progressive multicomponent exercise program focused on strength, balance, and walking recommendations. The intervention group maintained peak VO₂, oxygen saturation, and resting heart rate, while the control group showed a significant decrease in peak VO₂ and oxygen saturation and an increase in resting heart rate throughout the six-month period. Individualized and progressive multicomponent exercise programs comprising strength, balance, and walking recommendations appear to be effective in preventing cardiorespiratory fitness decline in older adults living in long-term care settings.

Associations of changes in physical activity and discretionary screen time with incident obesity and adiposity changes: longitudinal findings from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Physical activity (PA) and discretionary screen time (DST; television and computer use during leisure) are both associated with obesity risk, but little longitudinal evidence exists on their combined influence. This study examined the independent and joint associations of changes in PA and DST with incident obesity, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC).

METHODS

We analysed the data of individuals aged 40-69 years from the UK Biobank, a large-scale, population-based prospective cohort study. PA was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and DST was defined as the total of daily TV viewing and non-occupational computer use. Changes in PA and DST over time were defined using departure from sex-specific baseline tertiles and categorised as worsened (PA decreased/DST increased), maintained, and improved (PA increased/DST decreased). We then used each exposure change to define a joint PA-DST change variable with nine mutually exclusive groups. We used multivariable adjusted mixed-effects linear and Poisson models to examine the independent and joint associations between PA and DST changes with BMI and WC and incident obesity, respectively. Development of a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² was defined as incident obesity.

RESULTS

Among 30,735 participants, 1,628 (5.3%) developed incident obesity over a mean follow-up of 6.9 (2.2) years. In the independent association analyses, improving PA (Incident Rate Ratio (IRR) 0.46 (0.38-0.56)) was associated with a lower risk of incident obesity than maintaining PA, maintaining DST, or improving DST. Compared to the referent group (both PA and DST worsened), all other combinations of PA and DST changes were associated with lower incident obesity risk in the joint association analyses. We observed substantial beneficial associations in the improved PA groups, regardless of DST change [e.g., DST worsened (IRR 0.31 (0.21-0.44)), maintained (IRR 0.34 (0.25-0.46)), or improved (IRR 0.35 (0.22-0.56)]. The most pronounced decline in BMI and WC was observed when PA was maintained or improved and DST was maintained.

CONCLUSION

We found that improved PA had the most pronounced beneficial associations with incident obesity, irrespective of DST changes. Improvements in PA or DST mutually attenuated the deleterious effects of the other behaviour's deterioration.

Systematic review of Mendelian randomization studies on risk of cancer

BACKGROUND

We aimed to map and describe the current state of Mendelian randomization (MR) literature on cancer risk and to identify associations supported by robust evidence.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus up to 06/10/2020 for MR studies investigating the association of any genetically predicted risk factor with cancer risk. We categorized the reported associations based on a priori designed levels of evidence supporting a causal association into four categories, namely robust, probable, suggestive, and insufficient, based on the significance and concordance of the main MR analysis results and at least one of the MR-Egger, weighed median, MRPRESSO, and multivariable MR analyses. Associations not presenting any of the aforementioned sensitivity analyses were not graded.

RESULTS

We included 190 publications reporting on 4667 MR analyses. Most analyses (3200; 68.6%) were not accompanied by any of the assessed sensitivity analyses. Of the 1467 evaluable analyses, 87 (5.9%) were supported by robust, 275 (18.7%) by probable, and 89 (6.1%) by suggestive evidence. The most prominent robust associations were observed for anthropometric indices with risk of breast, kidney, and endometrial cancers; circulating telomere length with risk of kidney, lung, osteosarcoma, skin, thyroid, and hematological cancers; sex steroid hormones and risk of breast and endometrial cancer; and lipids with risk of breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large amount of research on genetically predicted risk factors for cancer risk, limited associations are supported by robust evidence for causality. Most associations did not present a MR sensitivity analysis and were thus non-evaluable. Future research should focus on more thorough assessment of sensitivity MR analyses and on more transparent reporting.

Mendelian randomization analysis of the causal impact of body mass index and waist-hip ratio on rates of hospital admission

We analyze how measures of adiposity - body mass index (BMI) and waist hip ratio (WHR) - causally influence rates of hospital admission. Conventional analyses of this relationship are susceptible to omitted variable bias from variables that jointly influence both hospital admission and adipose status. We implement a novel quasi-Poisson instrumental variable model in a Mendelian randomization framework, identifying causal effects from random perturbations to germline genetic variation. We estimate the individual and joint effects of BMI, WHR, and WHR adjusted for BMI. We also implement multivariable instrumental variable methods in which the causal effect of one exposure is estimated conditionally on the causal effect of another exposure. Data on 310,471 participants and over 550,000 inpatient admissions in the UK Biobank were used to perform one-sample and two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses. The results supported a causal role of adiposity on hospital admissions, with consistency across all estimates and sensitivity analyses. Point estimates were generally larger than estimates from comparable observational specifications. We observed an attenuation of the BMI effect when adjusting for WHR in the multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses, suggesting that an adverse fat distribution, rather than a higher BMI itself, may drive the relationship between adiposity and risk of hospital admission.

Estimating the influence of body mass index (BMI) on mortality using offspring BMI as an instrumental variable

OBJECTIVE

High body mass index (BMI) is an important predictor of mortality but estimating underlying causality is hampered by confounding and pre-existing disease. Here, we use information from the offspring to approximate parental BMIs, with an aim to avoid biased estimation of mortality risk caused by reverse causality.

METHODS

The analyses were based on information on 9674 offspring-mother and 9096 offspring-father pairs obtained from the 1958 British birth cohort. Parental BMI-mortality associations were analysed using conventional methods and using offspring BMI as a proxy, or instrument, for their parents' BMI.

RESULTS

In the conventional analysis, associations between parental BMI and all-cause mortality were U-shaped (P_curvature < 0.001), while offspring BMI had linear associations with parental mortality (P_trend < 0.001, P_curvature > 0.46). Curvature was particularly pronounced for mortality from respiratory diseases and from lung cancer. Instrumental variable analyses suggested a positive association between BMI and mortality from all causes [mothers: HR per SD of BMI 1.43 (95% CI 1.21-1.69), fathers: HR 1.17 (1.00-1.36)] and from coronary heart disease [mothers: HR 1.65 (1.15-2.36), fathers: HR 1.51 (1.17-1.97)]. These were larger than HR from the equivalent conventional analyses, despite some attenuation by adjustment for social indicators and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses using offspring BMI as a proxy for parental BMI suggest that the apparent adverse consequences of low BMI are considerably overestimated and adverse consequences of overweight are underestimated in conventional epidemiological studies.

Adiposity and risks of vascular and non-vascular mortality among Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes: a 10-year prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Among individuals with diabetes, high adiposity has been associated with lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (the so-called 'obesity paradox' phenomenon) in Western populations, for reasons that are still not fully elucidated. Moreover, little is known about such phenomena in Chinese adults with diabetes among whom very few were obese. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with vascular and non-vascular mortality among individuals with diabetes, and compare these with associations among individuals without diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In 2004-2008, the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >512 000 adults from 10 areas in China. After ~10 years of follow-up, 3509 deaths (1431 from CVD) were recorded among 23 842 individuals with diabetes but without prior major diseases at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted HRs associating adiposity with mortality.

RESULTS

Among people with diabetes, body mass index (BMI) (mean 25.0 kg/m²) was positively log linearly associated with CVD incidence (n=9943; HR=1.19 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.22) per 5 kg/m²), but showed U-shaped associations with CVD and overall mortality, with lowest risk at 22.5-24.9 kg/m². At lower BMI, risk of death (n=671) within 28 days of CVD onset was particularly elevated, with an HR of 3.26 (95% CI 2.29 to 4.65) at <18.5 kg/m² relative to 22.5-24.9 kg/m², but no higher mortality risk at BMI ≥25.0 kg/m². These associations were similar in self-reported and screen-detected diabetes, and persisted after extensive attempts to address reverse causality and confounding. Among individuals without diabetes (mean BMI 23.6 kg/m²; n=23 305 deaths), there were less extreme excess mortality risks at low BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Among relatively lean Chinese adults with diabetes, there were contrasting associations of adiposity with CVD incidence and with mortality. The high mortality risk at low and high BMI levels highlights, if causal, the importance of maintaining normal weight among people with diabetes.

Association Between Relative Quadriceps Strength and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Older Adults: The Yangpyeong Cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study

BACKGROUND

To examine the independent and combined association between relative quadriceps strength and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in older adults.

METHODS

Among 1441 Korean older adults aged ≥65 years (71 [4.7] y) recruited between 2007 and 2016, 1055 older adults with no history of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cancer were included in the analysis. Cases of T2DM were identified by self-reported physician diagnosis, use antihyperglycemic medication or insulin, or fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dL. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of T2DM by quartiles of relative quadriceps strength.

RESULTS

There were 162 T2DM cases (15%). Compared with the lowest quartile (weakest), the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of T2DM were 0.56 (0.34-0.90), 0.60 (0.37-0.96), and 0.47 (0.28-0.80) in the second, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively, after adjusting for possible confounders, including body mass index. In the joint analysis, compared with the "weak and overweight/obese" group, the odds (odds ratios [95% confidence intervals]) of T2DM was only lower in the "strong and normal weight" group (0.36 [0.22-0.60]) after adjusting for possible confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater relative quadriceps strength is associated with reduced odds of T2DM in older adults after adjusting for potential confounders including body mass index.

Association of glaucoma with 10-year mortality in a population-based longitudinal study in urban Southern China: the Liwan Eye Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between glaucoma and 10-year mortality rate in an adult population in China.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

The Liwan Eye Study, China.

PARTICIPANTS

1405 baseline participants aged 50 years and older were invited to attend a 10-year follow-up examination.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The International Society of Geographic and Epidemiologic Ophthalmology criteria was used to define glaucoma. Detailed information of mortality was confirmed using the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Presenting visual impairment (PVI) was defined as a presenting visual acuity of less than 20/40 in the better-seeing eye. The 10-year mortality rates were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate the association between glaucoma and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1372 (97.7%) participants with available gonioscopic data were included in the analysis. Of these, 136 (9.9%), 33 (2.4%) and 21 (1.5%) participants had primary angle closure (PAC) suspect (PACS), PAC and PAC glaucoma (PACG), and 29 (2.1%) had primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). After 10 years, 306 (22.3%) participants were deceased. The 10-year mortality was significantly associated with PACG (HR, 2.15, 95% CI 1.14 to 4.04, p=0.018) but not associated with PAC (HR, 1.27, 95% CI 0.67 to 2.39, p=0.463), PACS (HR, 1.32, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.83, p=0.099) and POAG (HR, 0.74, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.49, p=0.395) when age and gender were adjusted for. This association was no longer statistically significant (HR, 1.60, 95% CI 0.70 to 3.61, p=0.263) when covariables, such as income, education, body mass index, PVI, history of diabetes and hypertension, were adjusted for. Larger vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR >0.30) was only a significant risk factor in multivariable analysis (HR, 1.60, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.33, p=0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

PACG was significantly associated with higher long-term mortality, but this association was likely to be confounded by other systemic risk factors. VCDR >0.3 was the only independent predictor, implying that it may be a marker of ageing and frailty.

Body mass index, functional disability and all-cause mortality in 330 000 older adults: The Shizuoka study

AIM

A J-shaped association has been observed between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality, but its relationship with functional disability is uncertain. We aim to clarify the association between BMI and functional disability, as well as all-cause mortality, by analyzing prefecture-wide annual health checkup data, and health and care insurance data.

METHODS

The dataset analyzed in this study consisted of 332 405 community residents aged ≥65 years who subscribed to the National Health Insurance. Basic clinical information was obtained from the annual health checkup data. The presence of comorbidities at baseline and the incidence of functional disability and all-cause mortality were obtained from the health insurance data.

RESULTS

The mean age and standard deviation of the study participants was 73.5 ± 6.0 years. During a 4-year follow-up period, we observed 31 508 incident cases of functional disability and 16 640 deaths. The incidence rates of functional disability and all-cause mortality were higher in both lower and higher BMI subgroups, and the lowest risk was observed in the range of 21-27 kg/m² in men and 20-25 kg/m² in women. These associations were independent of age, sex, current smoking and possible confounding factors, including a cardiovascular diseases history, hospitalization during the half-year period before baseline, and baseline comorbidities. A similar association was observed between BMI and all-cause mortality even when individuals who developed functional disabilities before death were excluded from the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintaining the bodyweight within the recommended range could be an effective method of reducing the risk of functional disability and mortality. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 1040-1046.

Effects of adiposity on the human plasma proteome: observational and Mendelian randomisation estimates

BACKGROUND

Variation in adiposity is associated with cardiometabolic disease outcomes, but mechanisms leading from this exposure to disease are unclear. This study aimed to estimate effects of body mass index (BMI) on an extensive set of circulating proteins.

METHODS

We used SomaLogic proteomic data from up to 2737 healthy participants from the INTERVAL study. Associations between self-reported BMI and 3622 unique plasma proteins were explored using linear regression. These were complemented by Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses using a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 654 BMI-associated polymorphisms from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of adult BMI. A disease enrichment analysis was performed using DAVID Bioinformatics 6.8 for proteins which were altered by BMI.

RESULTS

Observationally, BMI was associated with 1576 proteins (P < 1.4 × 10-5), with particularly strong evidence for a positive association with leptin and fatty acid-binding protein-4 (FABP4), and a negative association with sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). Observational estimates were likely confounded, but the GRS for BMI did not associate with measured confounders. MR analyses provided evidence for a causal relationship between BMI and eight proteins including leptin (0.63 standard deviation (SD) per SD BMI, 95% CI 0.48-0.79, P = 1.6 × 10-15), FABP4 (0.64 SD per SD BMI, 95% CI 0.46-0.83, P = 6.7 × 10-12) and SHBG (-0.45 SD per SD BMI, 95% CI -0.65 to -0.25, P = 1.4 × 10-5). There was agreement in the magnitude of observational and MR estimates (R2 = 0.33) and evidence that proteins most strongly altered by BMI were enriched for genes involved in cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence for a broad impact of adiposity on the human proteome. Proteins strongly altered by BMI include those involved in regulating appetite, sex hormones and inflammation; such proteins are also enriched for cardiovascular disease-related genes. Altogether, results help focus attention onto new proteomic signatures of obesity-related disease.

Gene-by-environment modulation of lifespan and weight gain in the murine BXD family

How lifespan and body weight vary as a function of diet and genetic differences is not well understood. Here we quantify the impact of differences in diet on lifespan in a genetically diverse family of female mice, split into matched isogenic cohorts fed a low-fat chow diet (CD, n = 663) or a high-fat diet (HFD, n = 685). We further generate key metabolic data in a parallel cohort euthanized at four time points. HFD feeding shortens lifespan by 12%: equivalent to a decade in humans. Initial body weight and early weight gains account for longevity differences of roughly 4-6 days per gram. At 500 days, animals on a HFD typically gain four times as much weight as control, but variation in weight gain does not correlate with lifespan. Classic serum metabolites, often regarded as health biomarkers, are not necessarily strong predictors of longevity. Our data indicate that responses to a HFD are substantially modulated by gene-by-environment interactions, highlighting the importance of genetic variation in making accurate individualized dietary recommendations.

Alterations in Brain Network Organization in Adults With Obesity as Compared With Healthy-Weight Individuals and Seniors

OBJECTIVE

Life expectancy and obesity rates have drastically increased in recent years. An unhealthy weight is related to long-lasting medical disorders that might compromise the normal course of aging. The aim of the current study of brain connectivity patterns was to examine whether adults with obesity would show signs of premature aging, such as lower segregation, in large-scale networks.

METHODS

Participants with obesity (n = 30, mean age = 32.8 ± 5.68 years) were compared with healthy-weight controls (n = 33, mean age = 30.9 ± 6.24 years) and senior participants who were stroke-free and without dementia (n = 30, mean age = 67.1 ± 6.65 years) using resting-state magnetic resonance imaging and graph theory metrics (i.e., small-world index, clustering coefficient, characteristic path length, and degree).

RESULTS

Contrary to our hypothesis, participants with obesity exhibited a higher clustering coefficient compared with senior participants (t = 5.06, p < .001, d = 1.23, 95% CIbca = 0.64 to 1.88). Participants with obesity also showed lower global degree relative to seniors (t = -2.98, p = .014, d = -0.77, 95% CIbca = -1.26 to -0.26) and healthy-weight controls (t = -2.92, p = .019, d = -0.72, 95% CIbca = -1.19 to -0.25). Regional degree alterations in this group were present in several functional networks.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants with obesity displayed greater network clustering than did seniors and also had lower degree compared with seniors and individuals with normal weight, which is not consistent with the notion that obesity is associated with premature aging of the brain. Although the cross-sectional nature of the study precludes causal inference, the overly clustered network patterns in obese participants could be relevant to age-related changes in brain function because regular networks might be less resilient and metabolically inefficient.

Associations between relative grip strength and type 2 diabetes mellitus: The Yangpyeong cohort of the Korean genome and epidemiology study

Objective

To investigate the association between relative grip strength and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) independently and in combination with body mass index (BMI) in Korean adults.

Methods

The cross-sectional study includes 2,811 men and women (age 40 to 92 years old) with no history of heart disease, stroke, or cancer. Relative grip strength was measured by a handheld dynamometer and calculated by dividing absolute grip strength by body weight. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of T2DM by sex-specific quintiles of relative grip strength. In a joint analysis, participants were classified into 4 groups: “weak (lowest 20% quintile one) and normal weight (BMI <25.0 kg/m²)”, “weak and overweight/obese (BMI ≥25.0 kg/m²)”, “strong (upper 80% four quintiles) and normal weight” or “strong and overweight/obese”.

Results

Among the 2,811 participants, 371 were identified as having T2DM. Compared with the lowest quintile of relative grip strength (weakest), the ORs (95% CIs) of T2DM were 0.73 (0.53–1.02), 0.68 (0.48–0.97), 0.72 (0.50–1.03), and 0.48 (0.32–0.74) in upper quintiles two, three, four, and five, respectively, after adjusting for BMI and other potential confounders. In the joint analysis, compared with the “weak and overweight/obese” reference group, the odds of T2DM [ORs (95% CIs)] was lower in the “strong and overweight/obese” group [0.65 (0.46–0.92)] and the “strong and normal weight” group [0.49 (0.35–0.67)], after adjusting for potential confounders.

Conclusion

In this cross-sectional study, greater relative grip strength was associated with a lower prevalence of T2DM independent of BMI in Korean adults. Additional prospective studies are needed to determine whether a causal association exists between relative grip strength and T2DM prevalence considering BMI.

Systematic review and Meta-Analysis of Mendelian randomisation analyses of Abdominal aortic aneurysms

INTRODUCTION

Mendelian randomisation (MR) has been suggested to be able to overcome biases of observational studies, but no meta-analysis is available on MR studies on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This systematic review and Meta-analysis examined the evidence of causal risk factors for AAA identified in MR studies.

METHODS

Publicly available databases were systematically searched for MR studies that reported any causal risk factors for AAA diagnosis. Meta-analyses were performed using random effect models and reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Study quality was assessed using a modified version of Strengthening the Reporting of Mendelian Randomisation Studies (STROBE-MR) guidelines.

RESULTS

Sixteen MR studies involving 34,050 patients with AAA and 2,205,894 controls were included. Meta-analyses suggested that one standard deviation increase in high density lipoprotein (HDL) significantly reduced (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.72) and one standard deviation increase in low density lipoprotein (LDL) significantly increased the risk (OR: 1.68, 95%, CI: 1.55, 1.82) of AAA. One standard deviation increase in triglycerides did not significantly increase the risk of AAA (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.71). Quality assessment suggested that ten and five studies were of low and moderate risk of bias respectively, with one study considered as high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggests LDL and HDL are positive and negative casual risk factors for AAA.

Association between adiposity and cardiovascular outcomes: an umbrella review and meta-analysis of observational and Mendelian randomization studies

AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate the causal relationship and evidence of an association between increased adiposity and the risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events or mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS 

Observational (informing association) and Mendelian randomization (MR) (informing causality) studies were assessed to gather mutually complementary insights and elucidate perplexing epidemiological relationships. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational and MR studies that were published until January 2021 and evaluated the association between obesity-related indices and CVD risk were searched. Twelve systematic reviews with 53 meta-analyses results (including over 501 cohort studies) and 12 MR studies were included in the analysis. A body mass index (BMI) increase was associated with higher risks of coronary heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, all-cause stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, ischaemic stroke, hypertension, aortic valve stenosis, pulmonary embolism, and venous thrombo-embolism. The MR study results demonstrated a causal effect of obesity on all indices but stroke. The CVD risk increase for every 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI varied from 10% [relative risk (RR) 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.21; certainty of evidence, low] for haemorrhagic stroke to 49% (RR 1.49; 95% CI 1.40-1.60; certainty of evidence, high) for hypertension. The all-cause and CVD-specific mortality risks increased with adiposity in cohorts, but the MR studies demonstrated no causal effect of adiposity on all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION 

High adiposity is associated with increased CVD risk despite divergent evidence gradients. Adiposity was a causal risk factor for CVD except all-cause mortality and stroke. Half (49%; 26/53) of the associations were supported by high-level evidence. The associations were consistent between sexes and across global regions. This study provides guidance on how to integrate evidence from observational (association) and genetics-driven (causation) studies accumulated to date, to enable a more reliable interpretation of epidemiological relationships.

Visual impairment and ten-year mortality: the Liwan Eye Study

OBJECTIVES

To explore associations between visual impairment (VI) and mortality in an adult population in urban China.

METHODS

The Liwan Eye Study was a population-based prevalence survey conducted in Guangzhou, Southern China. The baseline examination was carried out in 2003. All baseline participants were invited for the 10-year follow-up visit. VI was defined as the visual acuity of 20/40 or worse in the better-seeing eye with habitual correction if worn. Correctable VI was defined as the VI correctable to 20/40 or better by subjective refraction, and non-correctable VI was defined as the VI correctable to worse than 20/40. Mortality rates were compared using the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Of the 1399 participants (mean age: 65.3 ± 9.93 years; 56.4% female) with available baseline visual acuity measurement, 320 participants (22.9%) had VI. After 10 years, 314 (22.4%) participants died. Visually impaired participants had a significantly increased 10-year mortality compared with those without VI (40.0% vs. 17.2%, P < 0.05). After adjusting for age, gender, income, educational attainment, BMI, history of diabetes and hypertension, both VI (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.14-2.11) and non-correctable VI (HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.86-3.98) were significantly associated with poorer survival, while correctable VI (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.66-1.49) was not an independent risk factor for 10-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings that VI, particularly non-correctable VI, predicting poorer survival may imply the underlying mechanism behind VI-mortality association and reinforce the importance of preventing and treating disabling ocular diseases to prevent premature mortality in the elderly.

Diet Quality and the Risk of Impaired Speech Reception Threshold in Noise: The UK Biobank cohort

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have examined the association between several diet quality indexes and risk of hearing loss, based on self-reported information or on audiometry test, with inconsistent results. However, the impact of healthy diets on the capacity to listening in noise, a proxy of disability due to hearing loss, is unknown. This research assessed the prospective association between five diet quality indexes and the speech reception threshold in noise in the UK Biobank study.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort with 105,592 participants aged ≥40 years. At baseline, adherence to the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener, the alternate Mediterranean Diet score, the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010, and the healthful Plant-Based Diet Index were assessed. Functional auditory capacity was measured with a digit triplet test, and impairment was defined as a speech reception threshold in noise >-3.5 dB in any physical exam during the follow-up.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 3.2 (SD: 2.1) years, 1704 participants showed impaired speech reception threshold in noise. After adjusting for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of impairment per 1-SD increase in the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener, alternate Mediterranean Diet score, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 and healthful Plant-Based Diet Index scores were, respectively, 0.98 (0.94 to 1.03), 1.01 (0.96 to 1.06), 1.02 (0.97 to 1.07), 1.01 (0.96 to 1.06), and 1.00 (0.96 to 1.05). Results were similar when analyses were restricted to those >60 years, with British ethnicity, without chronic disease, without tinnitus or with optimal cognitive function.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to a healthy diet did not show an association with the speech reception threshold in noise. More research is needed to identify the impact of individual foods or nutrients on this outcome.

Dietary fat intake and risk of disabling hearing impairment: a prospective population-based cohort study

Purpose

To examine the associations of specific dietary fats with the risk of disabling hearing impairment in the UK Biobank study.

Methods

This cohort study investigated 105,592 participants (47,308 men and 58,284 women) aged ≥ 40 years. Participants completed a minimum of one valid 24-h recall (Oxford Web-Q). Dietary intake of total fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), saturated fatty acids (SFA), and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) was assessed at baseline. Functional auditory capacity was measured with a digit triplet test (DTT), and disabling hearing impairment was defined as a speech reception threshold in noise > − 3.5 dB in any physical exam performed during the follow-up.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 3.2 (SD: 2.1) years, 832 men and 872 women developed disabling hearing impairment. After adjustment for potential confounders, including lifestyles, exposure to high-intensity sounds, ototoxic medication and comorbidity, the hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% confidence interval (CI) of disabling hearing function, comparing extreme quintiles of intakes were 0.91 (0.71–1.17) for total fat, 1.09 (0.83–1.44) for PUFA, 0.85 (0.64–1.13) for SFA and 1.01 (0.74–1.36) for MUFA among men. Among women, HRs comparing extreme intakes were 0.98 (0.78–1.24) for total fat, 0.69 (0.53–0.91) for PUFA, 1.26 (0.96–1.65) for SFA, and 0.91 (0.68–1.23) for MUFA. Replacing 5% of energy intake from SFA with an equivalent energy from PUFA was associated with 25% risk reduction (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.74–0.77) among women.

Conclusions

PUFA intake was associated with decreased risk of disabling hearing function in women, but not in men.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00394-021-02644-7.

Serum urate and lung cancer: a cohort study and Mendelian randomization using UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Serum urate is the most abundant small molecule with antioxidant properties found in blood and the epithelial lining fluid of the respiratory system. Moderately raised serum urate is associated with lower rates of lung cancer and COPD in smokers but whether these relationships reflect antioxidant properties or residual confounding is unknown.

METHODS

We investigated the observational and potentially causal associations of serum urate with lung cancer incidence and FEV1 using one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and the UK Biobank resource. Incident lung cancer events were identified from national cancer registries as FEV1 was measured at baseline. Observational and genetically instrumented incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and risk differences per 10,000 person-years (PYs) by smoking status were estimated.

RESULTS

The analysis included 359,192 participants and 1,924 lung cancer events. The associations between measured urate levels and lung cancer were broadly U-shaped but varied by sex at birth with the strongest associations in current smoking men. After adjustment for confounding variables, current smoking men with low serum urate (100 µmol/L) had the highest predicted lung cancer incidence at 125/10,000 PY (95%CI 56-170/10,000 PY) compared with 45/10,000 PY (95%CI 38-47/10,000 PY) for those with the median level (300 µmol/L). Raised measured urate was associated with a lower baseline FEV1. The MR results did not support a causal relationship between serum urate and lung cancer or FEV1.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence that serum urate is a modifiable risk factor for respiratory health or lung cancer.

Association Between Environmental Factors and Asthma Using Mendelian Randomization: Increased Effect of Body Mass Index on Adult-Onset Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Subtypes

Although asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases throughout all age groups, its etiology remains unknown, primarily due to its heterogeneous characteristics. We examined the causal effects of various environmental factors on asthma using Mendelian randomization and determined whether the susceptibility to asthma due to the causal effect of a risk factor differs between asthma subtypes, based on age of onset, severity of asthma, and sex. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses (inverse variance weighted, weighted median, and generalized summary-data-based Mendelian randomization) using UK Biobank data to estimate the causal effects of 69 environmental factors on asthma. Additional sensitivity analyses (MR-Egger regression, Cochran’s Q test, clumping, and reverse Mendelian randomization) were performed to ensure minimal or no pleiotropy. For confirmation, two-sample setting analyses were replicated using BMI SNPs that had been reported by a meta-genome-wide association study in Japanese and European (GIANT) populations and a genome-wide association study in control individuals from the UK Biobank. We found that BMI causally affects the development of asthma and that the adult-onset moderate-to-severe asthma subtype is the most susceptible to causal inference by BMI. Further, it is likely that the female subtype is more susceptible to BMI than males among adult asthma cases. Our findings provide evidence that obesity is a considerable risk factor in asthma patients, particularly in adult-onset moderate-to-severe asthma cases, and that weight loss is beneficial for reducing the burden of asthma.

Associations of Skeletal Muscle Mass and Fat Mass With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study of UK Biobank Participants

Background There is debate whether body mass index is a good predictor of health outcomes because different tissues, namely skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and fat mass (FM), may be differentially associated with risk. We investigated the association of appendicular SMM (aSMM) and FM with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We compared their prognostic value to that of body mass index. Methods and Results We studied 356 590 UK Biobank participants aged 40 to 69 years with bioimpedance analysis data for whole-body FM and predicted limb muscle mass (to calculate aSMM). Associations between aSMM and FM with CVD and all-cause mortality were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Over 3 749 501 person-years of follow-up, there were 27 784 CVD events and 15 844 all-cause deaths. In men, aSMM was positively associated with CVD incidence (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09) and there was a curvilinear association in women. There were stronger positive associations between FM and CVD with HRs per SD of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.19-1.22) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.23-1.27) in men and women respectively. Within FM tertiles, the associations between aSMM and CVD risk largely persisted. There were J-shaped associations between aSMM and FM with all-cause mortality in both sexes. Body mass index was modestly better at discriminating CVD risk. Conclusions FM showed a strong positive association with CVD risk. The relationship of aSMM with CVD risk differed between sexes, and potential mechanisms need further investigation. Body fat and SMM bioimpedance measurements were not superior to body mass index in predicting population-level CVD incidence or all-cause mortality.

Estimating the causal effect of BMI on mortality risk in people with heart disease, diabetes and cancer using Mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND

Observational data have reported that being overweight or obese, compared to being normal weight, is associated with a lower risk for death - the "obesity paradox". We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate causal effects of body mass index (BMI) on mortality risks in people with coronary heart disease (CHD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or malignancy in whom this paradox has been often reported.

METHODS

We studied 457,746 White British UK Biobank participants including three subgroups with T2DM (n = 19,737), CHD (n = 21,925) or cancer (n = 42,612) at baseline and used multivariable-adjusted Cox models and MR approaches to describe relationships between BMI and mortality risk.

RESULTS

Observational Cox models showed J-shaped relationships between BMI and mortality risk including within disease subgroups in which the BMI values associated with minimum mortality risk were within overweight/obese ranges (26.5-32.5 kg/m2). In all participants, MR analyses showed a positive linear causal effect of BMI on mortality risk (HR for mortality per unit higher BMI: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03-1.08), also evident in people with CHD (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01-1.14). Point estimates for hazard ratios across all BMI values in participants with T2DM and cancer were consistent with overall positive linear effects but confidence intervals included the null.

CONCLUSION

These data support the idea that population efforts to promote intentional weight loss towards the normal BMI range would reduce, not enhance, mortality risk in the general population including, importantly, individuals with CHD.

Associations Between Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Cancers in a Large Cohort in China

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The relationship between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and cancer, especially extrahepatic cancers, has not been fully clarified. We analyzed data from a large prospective cohort study to determine the relationship between NAFLD and development of cancers in men.

METHODS

We collected data from the Kailuan cohort, a community-based cohort of 54,187 adult men in China, from June 2006 through October 2007. NAFLD was diagnosed by ultrasonography after excluding other causes related to chronic liver disease. Fine and Gray competing risk regression model was used to evaluate associations between NAFLD (without cirrhosis) and cancers.

RESULTS

The prevalence of NAFLD was 32.3%. NAFLD was associated with increased risk of all cancers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.36; P = .0001), thyroid cancer (HR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.25-6.21; P = .01), and lung cancer (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.02-1.49; P = .03). The association between NAFLD and risk of thyroid cancer increased with level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT). In men with NAFLD, level of ALT 80 U/L or more was associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 8.08; 95% CI, 2.46-26.56; P = .0006). NAFLD increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.17-3.27) and lung cancer (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.84) only in smokers. An association between NAFLD and kidney cancer (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.03-2.40) was only observed in men without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

A cohort study from China found that men with NAFLD have a higher risk of extrahepatic cancers, including thyroid and lung cancer. In men with NAFLD, higher levels of ALT were associated with higher risk of thyroid and hepatocellular cancer. NAFLD increased risk of colorectal and lung cancer only in smokers, and increased risk of kidney cancer in men without diabetes.

A novel decision model to predict the impact of weight management interventions: The Core Obesity Model

Aims

Models are needed to quantify the economic implications of obesity in relation to health outcomes and health-related quality of life. This report presents the structure of the Core Obesity Model (COM) and compare its predictions with the UK clinical practice data.

Materials and methods

The COM is a Markov, closed-cohort model, which expands on earlier obesity models by including prediabetes as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and sleep apnea and cancer as health outcomes. Selected outcomes predicted by the COM were compared with observed event rates from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink-Hospital Episode Statistics (CPRD-HES) study. The importance of baseline prediabetes prevalence, a factor not taken into account in previous economic models of obesity, was tested in a scenario analysis using data from the 2011 Health Survey of England.

Results

Cardiovascular (CV) event rates predicted by the COM were well matched with those in the CPRD-HES study (7.8-8.5 per 1000 patient-years across BMI groups) in both base case and scenario analyses (8.0-9.4 and 8.6-9.9, respectively). Rates of T2D were underpredicted in the base case (1.0-7.6 vs. 2.1-22.7) but increased to match those observed in CPRD-HES for some BMI groups when a prospectively collected prediabetes prevalence was used (2.7-13.1). Mortality rates in the CPRD-HES were consistently higher than the COM predictions, especially in higher BMI groups.

Conclusions

The COM predicts the occurrence of CV events and T2D with a good degree of accuracy, particularly when prediabetes is included in the model, indicating the importance of considering this risk factor in economic models of obesity.

Coffee consumption and risk of hearing impairment in men and women

BACKGROUND

Hearing loss is the fifth leading cause of disability in the world. Coffee consumption might have a beneficial effect on hearing function because of the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties of some of its compounds. However, no previous longitudinal study has assessed the association between coffee consumption and the risk of hearing impairment.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prospective association between coffee consumption and risk of disabling hearing impairment in middle and older men and women from the UK Biobank study.

METHODS

Analytical cohort with 36,923 participants (16,142 men and 20,781 women) [mean (SD): 56.6 (7.8) years, 1.6 (1.4) cups/d, and -7.6 (1.3) dB for age, total coffee consumption and speech reception threshold in noise at baseline, respectively]. At baseline, coffee consumption was measured with 3-5 multiple-pass 24-h food records. Hearing function was measured with a digit triplet test, and disabling hearing impairment was defined as a speech reception threshold in noise > -3.5 dB in any physical exam during the follow-up. Analyses were stratified by sex and Cox regression models were used to assess the prospective association proposed.

RESULTS

Over 10 years of follow-up, 343 men and 345 women developed disabling hearing impairment. Among men, compared with those who consumed <1 cup/d of coffee, those who consumed 1, and ≥2 cups/d had a lower risk of hearing impairment (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.72 [0.54-0.97] and 0.72 [0.56-0.92], respectively; P-trend: 0.01). This association was similar for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, and for filtered and non-filtered coffee, and was stronger in those with obesity (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] for consumption of ≥2 vs. <1 cups/d: 0.39 [0.21-0.74]). No association was found between coffee and hearing function among women.

CONCLUSIONS

Coffee consumption was associated with lower risk of disabling hearing impairment in men but not in women. The association appeared to be independent of the coffee type and the preparation method.

Effect of BMI on health care expenditures stratified by COPD GOLD severity grades: Results from the LQ-DMP study

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is characterized by persistent respiratory symptoms and airflow limitation, which is progressive and not fully reversible. In patients with COPD, body mass index (BMI) is an important parameter associated with health outcomes, e.g. mortality and health-related quality of life. However, so far no study evaluated the association of BMI and health care expenditures across different COPD severity grades. We used claims data and documentation data of a Disease Management Program (DMP) from a statutory health insurance fund (AOK Bayern). Patients were excluded if they had less than 4 observations in the 8 years observational period. Generalized additive mixed models with smooth functions were used to evaluate the association between BMI and health care expenditures, stratified by severity of COPD, indicated by GOLD grades 1-4. We included 30,682 patients with overall 188,725 observations. In GOLD grades 1-3 we found an u-shaped relation of BMI and expenditures, where patients with a BMI of 30 or slightly above had the lowest and underweight and obese patients had the highest health care expenditures. Contrarily, in GOLD grade 4 we found an almost linear decline of health care expenditures with increasing BMI. In terms of expenditures, the often reported obesity paradox in patients with COPD was clearly reflected in GOLD grade 4, while in all other severity grades underweight as well as severely obese patients caused the highest health care expenditures. Reduction of obesity may thus reduce health care expenditures in GOLD grades 1-3.

Effects of body mass index on relationship status, social contact and socio-economic position: Mendelian randomization and within-sibling study in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

We assessed whether body mass index (BMI) affects social and socio-economic outcomes.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization (MR), non-linear MR and non-genetic and MR within-sibling analyses, to estimate relationships of BMI with six socio-economic and four social outcomes in 378 244 people of European ancestry in UK Biobank.

RESULTS

In MR of minimally related individuals, higher BMI was related to higher deprivation, lower income, fewer years of education, lower odds of degree-level education and skilled employment. Non-linear MR suggested both low (bottom decile, <22 kg/m2) and high (top seven deciles, >24.6 kg/m2) BMI, increased deprivation and reduced income. Non-genetic within-sibling analysis supported an effect of BMI on socio-economic position (SEP); precision in within-sibling MR was too low to draw inference about effects of BMI on SEP. There was some evidence of pleiotropy, with MR Egger suggesting limited effects of BMI on deprivation, although precision of these estimates is also low. Non-linear MR suggested that low BMI (bottom three deciles, <23.5 kg/m2) reduces the odds of cohabiting with a partner or spouse in men, whereas high BMI (top two deciles, >30.7 kg/m2) reduces the odds of cohabitation in women. Both non-genetic and MR within-sibling analyses supported this sex-specific effect of BMI on cohabitation. In men only, higher BMI was related to lower participation in leisure and social activities. There was little evidence that BMI affects visits from friends and family or having someone to confide in.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI may affect social and socio-economic outcomes, with both high and low BMI being detrimental for SEP, although larger within-family MR studies may help to test the robustness of MR results in unrelated individuals. Triangulation of evidence across MR and within-family analyses supports evidence of a sex-specific effect of BMI on cohabitation.

Body Mass Index and Mortality From Aortic Aneurysm and Dissection

AIMS

Reports on an association between body mass index and aortic disease, which remains controversial. This study investigated the association between body mass index and mortality from aortic disease.

METHODS

We conducted the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study, a prospective study of 103,972 Japanese men and women aged 40-79 years. Body mass index was calculated on the basis of self-reported height and weight, and the participants were followed up from 1988-89 through 2009. Sex-specific hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of mortality from aortic disease according to quintiles of body mass index were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

During the median 18.8 years of follow-up, we documented 139 deaths due to aortic aneurysm (including 51 thoracic and 74 abdominal aortic aneurysms) and 134 deaths due to aortic dissection. We observed positive associations of body mass index with mortality from aortic aneurysm among men: the multivariable hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for highest versus lowest quintiles of body mass index were 4.48 (2.10-9.58), P for trend ＜0.0001 for aortic aneurysm; 6.52 (1.33-32.02), P=0.005 for thoracic aortic aneurysm; 3.81 (1.39-10.49), P=0.01 for abdominal aortic aneurysm; and 2.71 (1.59-4.62), P=0.001 for total aortic disease. No association was found for aortic dissection. Among ever-smokers (men ≥ 90%) but not never-smokers (women ≥ 84%), an association between body mass index and aortic disease mortality was observed regardless of sex, which may explain the sex difference (P for sex-interaction=0.046).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a positive association between body mass index and mortality from aortic aneurysm among Japanese men and smokers.

Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of adiposity on hospital costs

Estimates of the marginal effect of measures of adiposity such as body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs are important for the formulation and evaluation of policies targeting adverse weight profiles. Most estimates of this association are affected by endogeneity bias. We use a novel identification strategy exploiting Mendelian Randomization - random germline genetic variation modelled using instrumental variables - to identify the causal effect of BMI on inpatient hospital costs. Using data on over 300,000 individuals, the effect size per person per marginal unit of BMI per year varied according to specification, including £21.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): £14.35-£28.07) for conventional inverse variance weighted models to £18.85 (95% CI: £9.05-£28.65) for penalized weighted median models. Effect sizes from Mendelian Randomization models were larger in most cases than non-instrumental variable multivariable adjusted estimates (£13.47, 95% CI: £12.51-£14.43). There was little evidence of non-linearity. Within-family estimates, intended to address dynastic biases, were imprecise.

Dairy consumption and risk of falls in 2 European cohorts of older adults

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Some previous evidence have linked dairy products with greater muscle mass, bone mineral density and lower risk of osteoporosis. However, there is also evidence of a detrimental effect of milk on the risk of hip fracture. The aim of this study was to assess the prospective association between dairy consumption and risk of falls in older adults.

METHODS

We used data from 2 cohorts of community-dwellers aged ≥60y: the Seniors-ENRICA cohort with 2981 individuals, and the UK Biobank cohort with 8927 participants. In the Seniors-ENRICA, dairy consumption was assessed with a validated diet history in 2008-10, and falls were ascertained up to 2015. In the UK Biobank study, dairy consumption was obtained with 3-5 multiple-pass 24-h food records in 2006-10, and falls were assessed up to 2016.

RESULTS

A total of 801 individuals in the Seniors-ENRICA and 201 in the UK Biobank experienced ≥1 fall. After adjustment for potential confounders, dairy products were not associated with risk of falls in the Seniors-ENRICA [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 1-serving increment in total dairy consumption: 1.02 (0.93-1.11), milk: 0.93 (0.85-1.01), yogurt: 1.05 (0.96-1.15), and cheese: 0.96 (0.88-1.05)]. Corresponding figures in the UK Biobank were: total dairy: 1.19 (1.00-1.41), milk: 1.53 (1.13-2.08), yogurt: 1.10 (0.90-1.31), and cheese: 1.02 (0.87-1.22).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest a null association between habitual dairy consumption and the risk of falling in older adults. Whether milk consumption may increase the risk of falls, as observed in the UK Biobank cohort, merits further study.

The Association Between Adiposity and Inpatient Hospital Costs in the UK Biobank Cohort

BACKGROUND

High adiposity is associated with higher risks for a variety of adverse health outcomes, including higher rates of age-adjusted mortality and increased morbidity. This has important implications for the management of healthcare systems, since the endocrinal, cardiometabolic and other changes associated with increased adiposity may be associated with substantial healthcare costs.

METHODS

We studied the association between various measures of adiposity and inpatient hospital costs through record linkage between UK Biobank and records of inpatient care in England and Wales. UK Biobank is a large prospective cohort study that aimed to recruit men and women aged between 40 and 69 from 2006 to 2010. We applied generalised linear models to cost per person year to estimate the marginal effect of adiposity, and average adjusted predicted costs of adiposity.

RESULTS

Valid cost and body mass index (BMI) data from 457,689 participants were available for inferential analysis. Some 54.4% of individuals included in the analysis sample had positive inpatient healthcare costs over the period of follow-up. Median hospital costs per person-year of follow-up were £89, compared to mean costs of £481. Mean BMI overall was 27.4 kg/m² (standard deviation 4.8). The marginal effect of a unit increase in BMI was £13.61 (99% confidence interval £12.60-£14.63) per person-year of follow up. The marginal effect of a standard deviation increase in BMI was £69.20 (99% confidence interval £64.98-£73.42). The marginal effect of becoming obese was £136.35 (99% confidence interval £124.62-£148.08). Average adjusted predicted inpatient hospital costs increased almost linearly when modelled using continuous measure of adiposity. Sensitivity analysis of different scenarios did not substantially change these conclusions, although there was some evidence of attenuation of the effects of adiposity when controlling for waist-hip ratios, and when individuals who self-reported any pre-existing conditions were excluded from analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher adiposity is associated with higher inpatient hospital costs. Further scrutiny using causal inferential methods is warranted to establish if further public health investments are required to manage the large healthcare costs observationally associated with overweight and obesity.