Age and the explanation of crime, revisited

Adverse childhood experiences and intimate partner violence: A meta-analysis

Intimate partner violence (IPV) represents a significant public health concern. Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) represent one risk factor for IPV, however, the results of existing research on the association between ACEs and IPV demonstrate mixed findings. The present research sought to meta-analytically examine the association between ACEs and (a) IPV perpetration and (b) IPV victimization. Moderator analyses were conducted to determine factors that may impact the association between ACEs and IPV involvement. Electronic searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO in August of 2021. One-hundred and twenty-three records were screened for inclusion. All studies included a measure of ACEs and IPV victimization or perpetration. Among the 27 studies and 41 samples included in the meta-analysis, 65,330 participants were included. The results of the meta-analyses demonstrated that ACEs were positively associated with IPV perpetration and victimization. Significant methodological and measurement moderators further inform our understanding of ACEs and IPV involvement. The present meta-analyses demonstrates that trauma-informed approaches to IPV screening, prevention, and intervention may be useful, given that individuals who are involved with IPV may be more likely to possess a history of ACEs exposure.

Social Change and Race-Specific Homicide Trajectories: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Objectives

Social change and the aging process are racially bifurcated in the United States, where Black and White populations have long lived in divergent social worlds. This study examines the cohort patterns and life-course trajectories of Black and White homicide involvement over the past four decades.

Data and Methods

The study uses data from the Supplemental Homicide Reports and Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction (APC-I) models to analyze race-specific trends of (alleged) homicide offending and victimization between 1976 and 2018 in the U.S.

Results

Results reveal similar patterns in the age, period, and cohort effects on Black and White homicide involvement. However, while the shapes of these trajectories are comparable, the volatility in cohort effects on homicide is much more accentuated for Black cohorts than White cohorts. We also find racial differences for cohorts born after 1990, with a downward cohort pattern among the White group but a flat cohort trend among the Black group.

Conclusions

Findings suggest that Black cohorts' homicide involvement is more susceptible than White cohorts' to the influence of external social changes (e.g., economic downturn, the crack epidemic). In addition, an increasing racial gap between Black and White populations is found among the recent birth cohorts. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

Neuroanatomical correlates of aggressiveness: a case-control voxel- and surface-based morphometric study

Aggression occurs across the population ranging on a symptom continuum. Most previous studies have used magnetic resonance imaging in clinical/forensic samples, which is associated with several confounding factors. The present study examined structural brain characteristics in two healthy samples differing only in their propensity for aggressive behavior. Voxel- and surface-based morphometry (SBM) analyses were performed on 29 male martial artists and 32 age-matched male controls. Martial artists had significantly increased mean gray matter volume in two frontal (left superior frontal gyrus and bilateral anterior cingulate cortex) and one parietal (bilateral posterior cingulate gyrus and precuneus) brain clusters compared to controls (whole brain: p < 0.001, cluster level: family-wise error (FWE)-corrected). SBM analyses revealed a trend for greater gyrification indices in martial artists compared to controls in the left lateral orbital frontal cortex and the left pars orbitalis (whole brain: p < 0.001, cluster level: FWE-corrected). The results indicate brain structural differences between martial artists and controls in frontal and parietal brain areas critical for emotion processing/inhibition of emotions as well as empathic processes. The present study highlights the importance of studying healthy subjects with a propensity for aggressive behavior in future structural MRI research on aggression.

Parental incarceration in childhood and violent delinquent behaviors in adulthood: Race/ethnicity and sex differences

Studies indicate parental incarceration (PI) is associated with children's externalizing behaviors. Fewer studies have examined whether the relationship persists into adulthood, manifesting specifically in violent behavior, and differs by race/ethnicity or sex of the individual exposed to PI during childhood. Wave I and Wave IV National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health data where average respondent age was 15.7 and 28.8 years, respectively, was used to expand understanding of PI impact on U.S. male and female violent behavior. PI was associated with fighting, fighting that seriously injured someone, and any violent delinquent behavior in adulthood. When examining the moderating effect of race/ethnicity, the association between PI and fighting was stronger for Hispanic persons than Non-Hispanic White persons. In analysis stratified by race/ethnicity, Hispanic persons who reported PI compared to those who did not were 4.78 [95% CI: 2.43, 9.38] times as likely to report fighting and Non-Hispanic Black persons who reported PI compared to those who did not were 1.88 times as likely (CI 1.01, 3.51) to report fighting. Sex was not found to be a moderator of the association between PI and violent delinquent behaviors. Results indicate the influence of PI on violent behavior persists into adulthood and differs by race/ethnicity. Differing patterns of elevated violence risk in adults with PI history suggest tailored preventive strategies may be of value.

Examining the Longitudinal Connection Between Adolescent Delinquency and Risky Sexual Behaviors in a Sample of Males and Females

Adolescence is a time period that is highlighted by widespread involvement in delinquent behaviors. The long-term consequences associated with engaging in such behaviors is not entirely understood. There is some research showing, though, that adolescents who are involved in delinquency are at-risk for also engaging in an assortment of risky sexual behaviors. Whether this association is causal or the result of selection/confounding remains unclear. The current study sought to add to the literature on this topic by examining whether measures of adolescent delinquency predict later-life involvement in risky sexual behaviors (number of sexual partners, number of one-night stands, and being diagnosed with a sexually transmitted infection) in a sample from the United States. To do so, data drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) were analyzed (N ranging from 5018 to 5964). The results revealed statistically significant associations between adolescent delinquency and risky sexual behaviors for males and females even after controlling for levels of self-control, exposure to peer substance use, parental socialization, and neighborhood disadvantage. These results suggest that the association between delinquent involvement and risky sexual behaviors is robust and future research should begin to systematically examine the developmental nature of this association.

Evaluating the impact of a street outreach intervention on participant involvement in gun violence

The past several years have witnessed increased calls for community violence interventions (CVIs) that address firearm violence while centering local expertise and avoiding the criminal legal system. Currently, little evidence exists on CVI effectiveness at the individual level. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of a street outreach-based CVI [Chicago CRED (Create Real Economic Destiny)] on participant involvement in violence. We used a quasiexperimental design with a treatment sample of 324 men recruited by outreach staff from 2016 to 2021 and a balanced comparison sample of 2,500 men from a network of individuals arrested in CRED's service areas. We conducted a Bayesian survival analysis to evaluate CRED's effect on individual violence-related outcomes on three levels of treatment: All enrolled participants, a subsample that made it through the initial phase, and those who completed programming. The intervention had a strong favorable effect on the probability of arrest for a violent crime for those completing the program: After 24 mo, CRED alumni experienced an 11.3 percentage point increase in survival rates of arrest for a violent crime relative to their comparisons (or, stated differently, a 73.4% reduction in violent crime arrests). The other two treatment levels experienced nontrivial declines in arrests but did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant reduction in victimization risk was detected for any of the treatment levels. Results demonstrate that completion of violence intervention programming reduces the likelihood of criminal legal involvement for participants, despite the numerous systemic and environmental factors that impede personal success.

Characterizing trajectories of anxiety, depression, and criminal offending in male adolescents over the 5 years following their first arrest

Youth in the juvenile justice system evince high rates of mental health symptoms, including anxiety and depression. How these symptom profiles change after first contact with the justice system and - importantly - how they are related to re-offending remains unclear. Here, we use latent growth curve modeling to characterize univariate and multivariate growth of anxiety, depression, and re-offending in 1216 male adolescents over 5 years following their first arrest. Overall, the group showed significant linear and quadratic growth in internalizing symptoms and offending behaviors over time such that levels decreased initially after first arrest followed by a small but significant upturn occurring a few years later. Crucially, multivariate growth models revealed strong positive relationships between the rates of growth in internalizing symptoms and offending behaviors such that improvements in mental health related to greater decreases in offending, and vice versa. These results highlight the reciprocal nature of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescence, underscoring the importance of considering mental health alongside offending in the juvenile justice system.

Changing contexts: A quasi-experiment examining adolescent delinquency and the transition to high school

In a quasi-experiment, we examine whether changing schools during the transition from 8th to 9th grade influences adolescent delinquency, using a sample of more than 14,000 students in 26 public school districts (PROSPER study). The dataset follows students for eight waves from 6th through 12th grade and facilitates a unique, direct comparison of students who change schools with those who remain in the same school during this period. Results show that students who transition between schools report significantly less delinquency after the shift than those who do not, and that this difference persists through 10th grade. This decline is most pronounced when adolescents from multiple middle schools move to a single high school (i.e., multifeeder transitions). Students who transition between schools have fewer delinquent friends and participate in less unstructured socializing following the change in school environment, which partially mediates their reduced delinquency. Results provide some support for theories of differential association and routine activities. Our findings highlight the role of a crucial, yet understudied, life transition in shaping adolescent delinquency. The results from this quasi-experiment underscore the potential of alterations in social context to significantly dampen juvenile delinquency throughout high school.

The Interplay Between Status and Affection Needs: Testing the Imbalanced Needs Theory of Aggression in Adulthood

Status and affection are both goals related to social needs. The imbalanced needs theory of aggression proposes that although aggression can be used to realize status, this strategy is detrimental for realizing affection in the same social context. Thus, to the degree that the social circles overlap in which status and affection needs are realized, it becomes more costly (in terms of affection) to achieve status via aggression. This theory was tested for different forms of aggression, in different contexts, in a sample of adults from the general population (N = 253, M age = 29.95, SD = 2.60, 78% female). Participants reported on social needs with the Interpersonal Goals Inventory and reported on general measures of physical and social aggression, as well as rule breaking, and aggression at the workplace and in intimate partner relationships. As hypothesized, status needs were associated with physical aggression when affection needs were weak. This interaction, though to a lesser degree, also extended to social forms of aggression and rule breaking. At the workplace, aggression was only related to weak affection needs, whereas aggression in intimate partner relationships was, as expected, unrelated to both social needs. Together, these findings support the results of an earlier test of the imbalanced needs theory of aggression in adolescence, and encourage more research into the link between aggression and the satisfaction of social needs.

General Offending and Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration in Young Adulthood: A Dutch Longitudinal Study

This study examines the relationship between general offending and intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration in young adulthood, using a Dutch longitudinal study. Young adults were followed over four waves, and self-reported data on general offending, IPV perpetration, and a number of individual characteristics were collected. Results of random effects models demonstrated that young adults involved in more diverse offending behavior reported higher levels of different types of IPV perpetration, even when individual factors were taken into account. Moreover, logistic regression analyses showed that general offending was also related to an increased likelihood of continuity in IPV perpetration. Taken together, the findings indicate that it is useful to view IPV perpetration as part of a broader criminal career.

The role of workplace offending in the relationship between work and crime: Testing the traditional, displacement, emboldenment and continuity hypotheses

Research evaluating the relationship between work and crime has paid little attention to behavior in the workplace. We evaluate four hypotheses regarding the work-crime relationship: (1) Employment and crime are negatively related, (2) Employment displaces offending from the street to the workplace, (3) Work offending emboldens street offending, and (4) Work offending has no association with street offending. Drawing on longitudinal data from a high-risk sample of young adults from The Pathways to Desistance study, we use hybrid fixed effects models with measures of street property offending and workplace property offending to test the hypotheses. Our findings indicate a positive association between work property offending and street property offending with the inclusion of fixed effects. Findings also provide evidence that job quality moderates this relationship. We elaborate on the role of workplace behavior in the broader work-crime relationship and explore the mechanisms underlying the associations we identify.

Onset Crime Typology of Sexual Offenders and Their Differences on Specialization and Risk Factors

In those theories or empirical-evident model of sexual offending, they all recognized which major life event would cause the sex offense in some conditions, therefore the onset crime of sexual offenders were not only a mark of personal history, but also could reflect the heterogeneity of sexual offenders. Our purpose is to study the onset crime typology of sexual offender and their difference in specialization, problem of psychology marks, and negative developmental experiences. We analyzed the pre-conviction data from 3,750 sexual offenders and their risk assessment data. The research results found that onset typology of sex crime would persist their criminal career into sexual offending, and through the group comparisons, the study pointed out differences in risk factors domain and adverse development experiences. We also discussed those research results and their meaning of risk management.

Examining Differences in the Effect of Vicarious and Personal Procedural Justice on Legal Orientations and Offending Across Race/Ethnicity Among a Sample of Serious Juvenile Offenders

In the current study it is examined if the impact of vicarious and personal perceptions of procedural justice on legal cynicism, legitimacy, and offending across time is invariant across race/ethnicity. Using longitudinal data from a sample of serious juvenile offenders from the Pathways to Desistance, the within- and between-individual associations of procedural justice, legal orientations, and offending were tested. Race/ethnic-specific models were estimated to examine differences across race/ethnicity. Positive personal and vicarious experiences with police had positive effects on legal orientations (i.e., legitimacy and cynicism), while vicarious experiences were more influential on offending compared to personal experiences. These effects were consistent across race/ethnicity. Both changes in legitimacy (positive) and cynicism (negative) were important for understanding changes in offending; however, the effect of cynicism was more consistent across race/ethnicity. The findings suggest that procedurally just treatment of juveniles by police can enhance legal compliance.

The Relationship Between the Development of General Offending and Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration in Young Adulthood

This study examined how patterns in general offending relate to the occurrence of and likelihood of persistence in intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration in young adulthood. The study used longitudinal data from the cohort of 18 year olds from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods study. Self-reported offending was measured in all three waves, and data on IPV were collected in Waves 1 and 3. Group-based trajectory modeling identified three distinct general offending trajectory groups: non-offenders, low-rate offenders, and high-rate offenders. The majority of respondents engaged in psychological IPV perpetration, and half of all young adults reported physical IPV, but prevalence rates decreased over the waves. Binary logistic regression analyses showed that those involved in offending, especially those who showed a diverse offending pattern, were at increased risk of perpetrating psychological and (severe) physical IPV, as well as to show persistence in the different forms of IPV perpetration. The findings highlight an important overlap between general crime and IPV perpetration. In recognition that IPV is often part of a broader pattern of antisocial behavior, interventions should focus on interrupting the criminal careers of all young offenders to reduce the prevalence and harms of IPV.

Perceptions of Legal Authorities in a Longitudinal Study of Adjudicated Youth

While perceptions of the legitimacy of formal authority have been found to influence offending, little is known about the extent to which such perceptions influence the related outcome of victimization. This study addressed this gap by examining how changes in legitimacy affected victimization both within- and between-individuals. This study used 7 waves of the Pathways to Desistance data (n = 1310; 13.85% female; age range 14-22). Youth who have committed serious offenses were surveyed at 6-month intervals during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood. In the full sample, the effects of legitimacy on both victimization and offending remained largely stable over time within individuals. Sensitivity analyses revealed that more positive perceptions of legitimacy significantly reduce offending for boys and reduce victimization for girls during the developmental period under study. Consistent with prior research, between-individual differences appear to be more important than within-individual change for explaining both offending and victimization. The implications of the results for theory, future research, and early intervention for high-risk youth are discussed.

The Accumulation of Disadvantage: Criminal Justice Contact, Credit, and Debt in the Transition to Adulthood

Social exclusion of those with criminal justice experience increasingly includes a financial component, but the structure of disadvantage in credit and debt remains unclear. We develop a model of financial disadvantage in debt-holding during the transition to adulthood among justice-involved groups. We study cumulative criminal justice contact and debt holding by age thirty using the NLSY97. We follow life-course theory and understand this Millennial cohort as transitioning to adulthood during an era of historically high criminal justice contact, with many experiencing arrests, convictions, and incarceration. We develop a distinct measurement approach to cumulative criminal justice contact by age thirty that captures variation between young adults in the severity of justice encounters in the early life course. We conceptualize financial disadvantage as a lower likelihood of holding debt that facilitates property and attainment investments and a higher likelihood of holding higher-cost debts used for consumption or emergencies. We find that those with the most punitive criminal justice contact evidence the most disadvantageous form of debt holding, exacerbating social exclusion. We consider the implications of the accumulation of financial disadvantage for our understanding of criminal justice contact as a life-course process that will continue to shape the Millennial cohort's future trajectory.

Addressing Key Gaps in Existing Longitudinal Research and Establishing a Pathway Forward for Firearm Violence Prevention Research

The main purpose of this article and this special section is to encourage greater attention to the key gaps that exist in our understanding of the epidemiology of adolescent firearm violence and to provide a pathway forward for future longitudinal research that will inform prevention efforts. This increased attention is especially salient given: (a) firearms are the leading cause of death for adolescents and emerging adults in the United States, with the majority of these deaths due to interpersonal violence; (b) significant health and social disparities with regards to the populations that are most affected by interpersonal firearm violence have been documented; and, (c) limitations in federal research funding during the past 30 years have created a deficit of knowledge about key risk and protective factors necessary to inform evidence-based prevention efforts. We discuss the implications of the articles in this special edition for existing and novel prevention programs. We also identify key considerations for future epidemiological research, including the need for a greater focus on collecting longitudinal data among nationally representative samples enriched with subgroups of at-risk youth, the need to examine the role of protective factors and mediating variables within existing and novel theoretical models of firearm risk behaviors, the need to examine key factors across all levels of the socio-ecological model, and the need to incorporate novel and innovative research designs, methods and analyses.

An Evaluation of Dual Systems Theories of Adolescent Delinquency in a Normative Longitudinal Cohort Study of Youth

Dual systems theories of adolescent risk-taking propose that the socioemotional and self-regulation systems develop at different rates, resulting in a peak in sensation-seeking in adolescence at a time when self-regulation abilities are not yet fully mature. This “developmental imbalance” between bottom-up drives for reward and top-down control is proposed to create a period of vulnerability for high-risk behaviors such as delinquency, substance use, unprotected sex, and reckless driving. In this study, data from the Swiss longitudinal normative z-proso study (n = 1522, n = 784 male; aged 11, 13, 15, 17, and 20) were used to test whether the presence of a developmental imbalance between sensation-seeking and self-regulation is associated with trajectories of engagement in delinquency across early adolescence to adulthood. Using a latent class growth analysis of sensation-seeking, self-regulation, and delinquency, it was found that a model with 3 classes was optimal in the whole sample and male sub-sample, including one class characterized by a developmental imbalance and corresponding adolescent peak in delinquency. In females, there was no evidence for a class that could be described according to the trajectories hypothesized in dual systems theory. This study’s results support the claim that a developmental imbalance may drive an adolescent increase in delinquency. However, this applies only to a small subgroup of individuals, particularly males.

Long-term Impacts and Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Communities That Care Prevention System at Age 23, 12 Years After Baseline

This study estimated sustained impacts and long-term benefits and costs of the Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system, implemented and evaluated in a longitudinal cluster-randomized trial involving 24 communities in seven states. Analyses utilized reports from a longitudinal panel of 4407 participants, followed since the study's baseline in grade 5, with most recent follow-up 12 years later at age 23. Impacts on lifetime abstinence from primary outcomes of substance use and antisocial behavior were estimated using generalized linear mixed Poisson regression analysis, adjusted for individual and community-level covariates. Possible cascading effects on 4-year college completion, major depressive disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder through age 23 were evaluated as secondary outcomes. CTC had a statistically significant global effect on primary outcomes and also on combined primary and secondary outcomes. Among primary outcomes, point estimates suggested absolute improvements in lifetime abstinence of 3.5 to 6.1% in the intervention arm and relative improvements of 13 to 55%; 95% confidence intervals revealed some uncertainty in estimates. Among secondary outcomes, 4-year college completion was 1.9% greater among young adults from intervention communities, a 20% relative improvement. Mental health outcomes were approximately the same across trial arms. Although CTC had small sustained effects through age 23, benefit-cost analyses indicated CTC was reliably cost beneficial, with a net present value of $7152 (95% credible interval: $1253 to $15,268) per participant from primary impacts and $17,919 ($306 to $39,186) when secondary impacts were also included. It remained cost beneficial even when impacts were adjusted downward due to the involvement of CTC's developer in the trial. Findings suggest that broader dissemination of CTC could improve public health and individual lives in the long term and generate positive net benefits to society.

Interactive association of maternal education and peer relationship with oppositional defiant disorder: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this research were to gain insights on the interactive effects, by measuring familial and peer-related risk factors in youths with oppositional defiant disorder (ODD).

METHODS

Participants were college students recruited nationwide, with age between 18 and 25. Through the consensus of expert meetings, a set of questionnaires were used to evaluate the familial status, participant's peer group conditions, high-risk environment of illicit substance use, and oppositional symptoms. The logistic regression was performed to see the independent and interactive risk factors for ODD.

RESULTS

A total of 981 subjects were enrolled. Six variables significantly associated with ODD at the multivariate logistic regression, including male, night division, poor academic performance, high risk environment, peer with illicit substance use and high maternal education level. High maternal education exerted independent protective effect on the development of ODD (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.44-0.99). Peer with illicit substance use was more likely to associate with ODD in the low maternal education group. The 2-way interactive effect of maternal education and peer with substance use on the development of ODD was OR = 4.96 (2.96, 8.31).

CONCLUSION

The present study highlights the influence of maternal education level to ODD and its interaction with peer of illicit substance use. Our findings imply that the familial attachment and peer interaction are essential stages for the development of human behavior.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The research protocol was reviewed and approved by the ethical review committee of National Taiwan University Hospital (number 201505057RINC ) and registered at clinical trial systems at National Taiwan University. In addition, subjects' information was anonymous and de-identified prior to any analysis.

The Prevalence and Typologies of Controlling Behaviors in a General Population Sample

The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and typologies of controlling behaviors within a general population sample. Participants (N = 427) completed the Revised Controlling Behaviors Scale and the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale. Prevalence of perpetration and victimization of controlling behaviors was relatively high, although the frequency and severity of the behaviors was mainly low level. Five clusters were established based on the use of five types of controlling behaviors: economic, threatening, intimidating, emotional, and isolating. Significant differences were found between the perpetration clusters and (a) minor physical assault, (b) severe physical assault, (c) minor psychological aggression, and (d) severe psychological aggression. Furthermore, significant differences were found between the victimization clusters and (a) physical assault, (b) minor psychological aggression, and (c) severe psychological aggression. It is clear that controlling behaviors are a feature within general population relationships, and further research is required to understand when such behaviors become problematic, and what needs to be done to prevent this from happening.

Individual factors associated with recidivism among mental health court program clients

There is growing evidence that diversion to a mental health court program (MHC) can reduce recidivism rates and improve the quality of life of clients. However, there is less known about MHC client characteristics and factors associated with recidivism. Yet, this information would be useful to increase the effectiveness of these programs. Cross-sectional quantitative data were collected on MHC clients in three consecutive years. Of the 155 program clients that were successfully interviewed, only 154 were included in the analysis due to one non-consent to collect further data from their case manager. The purpose of this secondary analysis was to examine "What individual factors are associated with recidivism among MHC program clients?" This analysis specifically explored the association of sex, age, low functional ability, homelessness, court site, and criminal history. From the multiple logistic regression results, the increased risk of recidivism was found to be significantly associated with younger clients and a prior criminal history. The results of this study suggest programs tailored to young adults and repeat offenders may be areas that MHCs could potentially focus on to increase their effectiveness.

The Role of Marriage and Military Service on Reoffending: Race, "The Respectability Package," and the Desistance Process

We build on prior research examining military involvement and criminal involvement by investigating the importance of acquiring the more complete "respectability package" that includes marriage as well as military experience and variations among White and Black respondents. Using data from Waves I and IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health; n = 5,801), analyses use logistic regression models to assess associations of military service, marriage, and race with odds of reoffending among White and Black young adults who reported offending at Wave I. Military involvement was associated with lower odds of offending for Black respondents only, while marriage was associated with decreased odds of reoffending across both groups. Among Black respondents, analyses also highlighted the importance of acquiring both components of the respectability package (military service and marriage) in the context of today's all-volunteer force in reducing criminal involvement.

What if They Are All High-Risk for Attrition? Correlates of Retention in a Longitudinal Study of Reentry from Prison

Longitudinal data are essential to research in criminology and criminal justice. Despite attrition's implications for validity, understanding its sources is underexplored empirically. We examine the correlates of retention using covariates organized into domains of prediction, prevention, and projection. Data from the LoneStar Project, a three-wave longitudinal reentry study of 802 males recently released from prisoners in Texas, were analyzed to examine the correlates of proximal, distal, and any study retention. The best correlates of study retention are prevention techniques used by researchers to reduce attrition. In contrast, only a few covariates traditionally associated with attrition and no covariates used for attrition projection were related to retention. What researchers do matters more for retention than the characteristics of individuals they are trying to retain. The findings underscore how researchers can improve study retention in longitudinal research while also correcting for non-random attrition in current longitudinal data sources.

Disentangling community-level changes in crime trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chicago

Recent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance our understanding on how public interventions affected criminal activities at a finer spatial scale. The analysis relies on a two-step methodology. First, it estimates the community-wise causal impact of social distancing and shelter-in-place policies adopted in Chicago via Structural Bayesian Time-Series across four crime categories (i.e., burglary, assault, narcotics-related offenses, and robbery). Once the models detected the direction, magnitude and significance of the trend changes, Firth's Logistic Regression is used to investigate the factors associated to the statistically significant crime reduction found in the first step of the analyses. Statistical results first show that changes in crime trends differ across communities and crime types. This suggests that beyond the results of aggregate models lies a complex picture characterized by diverging patterns. Second, regression models provide mixed findings regarding the correlates associated with significant crime reduction: several relations have opposite directions across crimes with population being the only factor that is stably and positively associated with significant crime reduction.

Dynamic Risk Factors for Handgun Carrying: Are There Developmental or Sex Differences?

Objective: This study examines the effects of dynamic risk factors on handgun carrying from adolescence into young adulthood.Method: A nationally representative sample of 8,679 individuals (ages 12-26; 51.1% male; 58% White, 26.8% African American; 21.2% Hispanic ethnicity) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997 cohort) interviewed at least three times across nine annual waves is used to estimate effects on handgun carrying. Key predictors include gang membership, selling and using drugs, violent crime, and arrest. Using mixed effects models, we focus on within-individual effects across three timeframes from ages 12 to 26: 1) predictors and handgun carrying measured concurrently, 2) predictors measured across one year and handgun carrying measured in the final month of the same year, and 3) predictors measured in the wave before handgun carrying. We also contrast estimates by sex and age.Results: All theoretically relevant predictors statistically significantly predict handgun carrying across the first two timeframes. However, none are statistically significant predictors of handgun carrying in the following year. Few significant sex and age differences emerge.Conclusions: Handgun carrying is an ephemeral behavior particularly during adolescence. The predictors of handgun carrying, which are grounded in gangs, drug use/sale, and crime involvement, appear to have short-term impacts that are consistent across age as well as across sex. Consequently, future work should focus on shorter-term changes in models and there is no evidence that intervention efforts must take fundamentally different approaches to reduce handgun use among males versus females or adolescents versus adults.

Desistance from Crime during the Transition to Adulthood: The Influence of Parents, Peers, and Shifts in Identity

OBJECTIVES

Research on criminal continuity and change has traditionally focused on elements of the adult life course (e.g., marriage and employment); however, recent social and economic changes suggest the need to consider a broader range of factors. In addition, researchers have increasingly recognized the importance of identity changes in the desistance process.

METHODS

Using five waves of structured data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS), we examined identity changes, shifts in involvement with delinquent peers, and variability in closeness with parents as influences on desistance. In-depth interviews with a subset of TARS respondents offered a person-centered lens on individual and social processes associated with variability in criminal behavior.

RESULTS

Findings indicated that identity changes were associated with declines in offending. In addition, changes in parental closeness and the extent of affiliation with antisocial peers contributed to patterns of offending, net of these subjectively experienced cognitive changes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cognitive processes are important to desistance. However, they do not independently provide a path to sustained behavioral change. Social experiences, including changes in relationships/supports from parents and affiliation with delinquent peers, also figure into change processes. We discuss the implications of our findings for future research and programmatic efforts.

Youth with Co-occurring Delinquency and Depressive Symptoms: Do They Have Better or Worse Delinquent Outcomes?

Delinquent youth often experience depression, but depression's impact on their future deviance is unclear. Using survey and social network data on a panel of 9th graders (N = 8701; M_age at baseline = 15.6; 48% male; 85% white; 18% eligible for free or reduced-price school lunch) followed throughout high school, this study tested whether depressive symptoms predicted later deviance or deviant peer affiliations among already delinquent youth. A latent class analysis revealed that 4% of respondents showed above-average levels of delinquency but not depressive symptoms, and 3% were above average on both. Compared to the delinquent-only group, the delinquent-depressed group went on to have less deviant friends, and to engage in less deviance themselves. However, peer deviance was not a reliable explanation for the reductions in respondents' own future deviance. Depressive symptoms thus may play a protective role against continued delinquency and substance use among youth who are already delinquent, but it is not because they reduce deviant peer affiliations.

Protective factors against juvenile delinquency: Exploring gender with a nationally representative sample of youth

Youth's social bonds' with conventional social institutions (e.g., family and school) and parental management of youth's leisure time represent two dimensions of suppressants against juvenile delinquency. Using Multivariate regression, this paper assesses these two dimensions of factors simultaneously on youth's aggressive and non-aggressive delinquency, and examines if their effects are gender sensitive. Findings suggest that girls have significantly lower involvement in both aggressive and non-aggressive delinquency than boys. However, girls are disproportionately involved in non-aggressive delinquency. Parental monitoring protects boys and girls distinctively on aggressive delinquency; this factor has a more pronounced inhibitory effect on girls' aggressive behavior. This study elucidates that there is a gendered pattern in adolescent delinquency, and that gender moderates the effect of some protective factor.

A longitudinal examination of African American adolescent females detained for status offense

INTRODUCTION

Behaviors like truancy, running away, curfew violation, and alcohol possession fall under the status offense category and can have serious consequences for adolescents. The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency and Prevention Act prohibited detaining status offenders. We explored the degree to which African American adolescent girls were being detained for status offenses and the connections to their behavioral health risks and re-confinement.

METHODS

188 African American girls (aged 13-17), recruited from detention facilities, were surveyed at baseline and 3-month follow-ups. Logistic regression models estimated the likelihood of longitudinal re-confinement, controlling for sexual and behavioral health risk factors.

RESULTS

One third of the overall sample was detained for a status offense. Status offenders were exposed to higher peer risk profiles. At follow-up, nearly 39% of status offenders reported re-confinement. Compared to youth with other offenses, those who violated a court order (type of status offense) were 3 times more likely to be re-confined. Controlling for sexual and behavioral health risk factors, the odds of re-confinement was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Overall findings suggest that courts and detention facilities must devote specialized resources to addressing the socio-behavioral needs of African American girls with status offenses so as not to use detention as an intervention.

Cannabis and tobacco use and co-use: Trajectories and correlates from early adolescence to emerging adulthood

BACKGROUND

Cannabis and tobacco co-use is a growing concern, yet little is known about its developmental course or associated outcomes during emerging adulthood. This study examines developmental trajectories of cannabis and tobacco co-use from adolescence to emerging adulthood, associations of co-use trajectories with four domains of functioning, and differences across racial/ethnic groups.

METHODS

Survey data come from a racially/ethnically diverse and predominantly California-based cohort that completed 10 surveys from 2008 (wave 1: mean age 11.5; n = 6,509) to 2018 (wave 10: mean age 20.7; n = 2,429). Co-use was defined as use of both cannabis and tobacco (cigarettes or smokeless tobacco) in the past 30 days. Trajectories of use were examined using latent growth modeling in a structural equation modeling framework.

RESULTS

Prevalence of cannabis and tobacco co-use increased from 0.3% at wave 1 to 9.5% at wave 10, with average probabilities of co-use higher among non-Hispanic white versus Hispanic or Asian participants. Higher average probability of co-use was associated with greater delinquency, more mental health symptoms, and poorer physical health during emerging adulthood. Higher rate of change in the probability of co-use over time was associated with greater delinquency, but better social functioning and less physical ailments. There was some evidence of racial/ethnic disparities in functioning, even at similar levels of co-use.

CONCLUSIONS

Cannabis and tobacco co-use deserves greater attention, especially regarding its effects on functioning during emerging adulthood. Results also emphasize the need for future research to focus on racial/ethnic disparities related to co-use and associated outcomes.

Police Stops Among At-Risk Youth: Repercussions for Mental Health

PURPOSE

The aim of the study was to examine the proximate mental health consequences of stressful and emotionally charged interactions with police officers among a national sample of at-risk youth who have been stopped by the police.

METHODS

A sample of 918 youth (average age 15 years) in the U.S. who reported being stopped by police in the most recent wave (2014-2017) of the Fragile Families & Child Wellbeing Study was used in the present study.

RESULTS

Although age at first stop was not associated with mental health outcomes, youth stopped by police more frequently were more likely to report heightened emotional distress and posttraumatic stress symptoms. Findings also indicate that being stopped at school and officer intrusiveness were potent predictors of these adverse emotional and mental health responses to the stop.

CONCLUSIONS

Under certain circumstances, the police stop can result in feelings of stigma and trauma among at-risk youth. Youth may benefit when school counselors or social workers provide mental health screenings and offer counseling care after police encounters, particularly when such encounters are intrusive and/or occur at school.

Women Released From Custody: Investigating Risk Factors and Reoffending

This article draws on life-course and desistance theory to explore the relationship between the factors of age, ethnicity, offence type, and incarceration history for a sample of 1,035 women released from custody between January 2013 and January 2014, data gathered from the Australian Queensland Corrective Services administrative dataset. It also explores their impact on recidivism and the time between release and reoffending (known as "time to failure") until September 2017. The data indicate substantial rates of reoffending with 70% of the sample reoffending (a return to custody/parole/probation) within the 2- to 4-year observation period. Notably, 50% of women reoffended in their first year post-release, 36% within 6 months, and 23% within the first 3 months. Regression results show that violent offenders are considerably more likely to be recidivists and older offenders are less likely to be recidivists; Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander offenders were also more likely to reoffend. Incarceration history is significantly associated with reoffending and "time to failure". It is clear that there needs to be increased intervention and support for female offenders during the first 2 years post-release from custody. This is particularly important for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women and those with an extensive history of incarceration.

Social inclusion of clients treated for substance abuse in Sweden in the 1980s: A 27-year follow-up

AIM

To investigate social inclusion/exclusion in terms of criminality, substance abuse and participation in the labour market in clients treated for substance abuse in Sweden in the 1980s during a follow-up period of 27 years.

METHOD

SWEDATE data are used for background information on the clients. The data were collected through interviews with clients registered for treatment in 31 in-patient treatment units in 1982 and 1983. Data on labour market status, education and medication related to drugs were collected from public registers. The study population consisted of 1132 individuals, who were followed from the year after exiting from treatment (Year 1) until the end of the follow-up (December 2013).

RESULTS

Among those who survived, the women seem to have succeeded better in terms of social inclusion both at an aggregated level and when the individual pathways were followed during the follow-up period. When comparing pathways between adverse and non-adverse groups during the follow-up period the results show movements from being adverse to non-adverse but also the opposite. In the last follow-up in 2013, the majority of the clients defined as non-adverse for the last nine years were in some way established in the labour market (including studies). In total, about two fifths of the group were in some way established in the labour market.

CONCLUSIONS

The fairly high proportion of clients moving between being adverse and non-adverse during the follow-up might support the perspective suggesting that dependence should not be considered as chronic.

A scoping review of patterns, motives, and risk and protective factors for adolescent firearm carriage

Firearm carriage is a key risk factor for interpersonal firearm violence, a leading cause of adolescent (age < 18) mortality. However, the epidemiology of adolescent firearm carriage has not been well characterized. This scoping review examined four databases (PubMed; Scopus; EMBASE; Criminal Justice Abstracts) to summarize research on patterns, motives, and underlying risk/protective factors for adolescent firearm carriage. Of 6156 unique titles, 53 peer-reviewed articles met inclusion criteria and were reviewed. These studies mostly examined urban Black youth, finding that adolescents typically carry firearms intermittently throughout adolescence and primarily for self-defense/protection. Seven future research priorities were identified, including: (1) examining adolescent carriage across age, gender, and racial/ethnic subgroups; (2) improving on methodological limitations of prior research, including disaggregating firearm from other weapon carriage and using more rigorous methodology (e.g., random/systematic sampling; broader population samples); (3) conducting longitudinal analyses that establish temporal causality for patterns, motives, and risk/protective factors; (4) capitalizing on m-health to develop more nuanced characterizations of underlying motives; (5) increasing the study of precursors for first-time carriage; (6) examining risk and protective factors beyond the individual-level; and, (7) enhancing the theoretical foundation for firearm carriage within future investigations.

Brain activation covaries with reported criminal behaviors when making risky choices: A fuzzy-trace theory approach

Criminal behavior has been associated with abnormal neural activity when people experience risks and rewards or exercise inhibition. However, neural substrates of mental representations that underlie criminal and noncriminal risk-taking in adulthood have received scant attention. We take a new approach, applying fuzzy-trace theory, to examine neural substrates of risk preferences and criminality. We extend ideas about gist (simple meaning) and verbatim (precise risk-reward tradeoffs) representations used to explain adolescent risk-taking to uncover neural correlates of developmentally inappropriate adult risk-taking. We tested predictions using a risky-choice framing task completed in the MRI scanner, and examined neural covariation with self-reported criminal and noncriminal risk-taking. As predicted, risk-taking was correlated with a behavioral pattern of risk preferences called "reverse framing" (preferring sure losses over a risky option and a risky option over sure gains, the opposite of typical framing biases) that has been linked to risky behavior in adolescents and is rarely observed in nondisordered adults. Experimental manipulations confirmed processing interpretations of typical framing (gist-based) and reverse-framing (verbatim-based) risk preferences. In the brain, covariation with criminal and noncriminal risk-taking was observed predominantly when subjects made reverse-framing choices. Noncriminal risk-taking behavior was associated with emotional reactivity (amygdala) and reward motivation (striatal) areas, whereas criminal behavior was associated with greater activation in temporal and parietal cortices, their junction, and insula. When subjects made more developmentally typical framing choices, reflecting nonpreferred gist processing, activation in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex covaried with criminal risk-taking, which may reflect cognitive effort to process gist while inhibiting preferred verbatim processing. (PsycINFO Database Record

Prediction of recidivism in a long-term follow-up of forensic psychiatric patients: Incremental effects of neuroimaging data

One of the primary objectives in forensic psychiatry, distinguishing it from other psychiatric disciplines, is risk management. Assessments of the risk of criminal recidivism are performed on a routine basis, as a baseline for risk management for populations involved in the criminal justice system. However, the risk assessment tools available to clinical practice are limited in their ability to predict recidivism. Recently, the prospect of incorporating neuroimaging data to improve the prediction of criminal behavior has received increased attention. In this study we investigated the feasibility of including neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism by studying whether the inclusion of resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements leads to an incremental increase in predictive performance over traditional risk factors. A subsample (N = 44) from a cohort of forensic psychiatric patients who underwent single-photon emission computed tomography neuroimaging and clinical psychiatric assessment during their court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigation were included in a long-term (ten year average time at risk) follow-up. A Baseline model with eight empirically established risk factors, and an Extended model which also included resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements from eight brain regions were estimated using random forest classification and compared using several predictive performance metrics. Including neuroimaging data in the Extended model increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from .69 to .81, increased accuracy from .64 to .82 and increased the scaled Brier score from .08 to .25, supporting the feasibility of including neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients. Although our results hint at potential benefits in the domain of risk assessment, several limitations and ethical challenges are discussed. Further studies with larger, carefully characterized clinical samples utilizing higher-resolution neuroimaging techniques are warranted.

Enhancing knowledge of adolescent mental health among law enforcement: Implementing youth-focused crisis intervention team training

This study explores the feasibility, acceptability, fidelity, and outcomes of a youth version of the Crisis Intervention Team training (CIT-Y). This intervention is designed to keep youth with a mental health problem out of the criminal/legal system by equipping police officers with developmentally appropriate information and techniques. Whereas much is known about the adult-focused CIT training, little is known about the youth-focused training. This preliminary investigation uses multiple methods (training observations, officer interviews, and pre/post-tests) to assesses the implementation of CIT-Y in two Midwest counties. Multiple 8-hour training sessions were offered in both counties with 127 officers participating and completing the pre/post measure. The findings of this study confirmed that CIT-Y training was feasible in these counties and acceptable to the officers who participated. Outcomes from the pre/post-tests show that 86% of officers positively changed their knowledge and attitudes regarding youth with mental health problems. Interviews revealed a positive impact on officers' reported behaviors. While this preliminary investigation of CIT-Y showed positive outcomes, recommendations for enhancing the curriculum and subsequent research are discussed.

Criminal offending and associated factors in dual diagnosis patients

Dual diagnosis patients perpetrate crime more often than healthy individuals. Crime perpetration has major mental health consequences for the victim. Knowledge of factors related to perpetration is needed for the development of prevention programs. However, in dual diagnosis patients, very little is known about factors explaining criminal behavior. The current study investigated cross-sectional associations between demographic and clinical factors and perpetration of three crime types (violence, threat, and property crime) in 243 treatment-seeking dual diagnosis patients. In our sample, perpetration of violence was independently associated with younger age, severity of alcohol use problems, lifetime trauma exposure, and higher manic symptom scores. Expression of threat was independently associated with severity of alcohol use problems and higher manic symptom scores. Perpetration of property crime was independently associated with severity of alcohol and drug use problems. Remarkably, gender was not associated with any type of perpetration. These findings indicate that criminal offending is a significant problem among dual diagnosis patients and are a first step towards understanding the complex causal networks that lead to criminal perpetration. Future longitudinal research should investigate additional risk factors and establish causality to support the development of treatment programs to prevent criminal offending by dual diagnosis patients.

“Create in Me a Clean Heart”: The Role of Spirituality in Desistance From Substance Use

Although the impact of religion on behavior is robust and well-examined in many areas, the role spirituality plays in changes in drug use over time has received relatively little attention. Using a life-course theoretical framework, this relationship is examined through growth curve modeling techniques. Specifically, multilevel analyses are estimated testing within-person relationships between substance use desistance and spirituality. The Pathways to Desistance longitudinal data are analyzed and leading criminological predictors are included, to determine if spirituality has a unique impact on substance use net of these criminological factors, and if these impacts vary across gender. Results from these analyses suggest that the impact of spirituality on desistance varies by gender, with spirituality significantly increasing the odds of desistance from marijuana use for females, but not males.

Predicting Arrest in a Sample of Youth Perinatally Exposed to HIV: The Intersection of HIV and Key Contextual Factors

We examined the role of youth HIV status and other key factors on past-year arrest in perinatally HIV-exposed but uninfected (PHIV-) and perinatally HIV-infected (PHIV+) youth using data from a multi-site study of psychosocial behaviors in PHIV-exposed urban youth (N = 340; 61% PHIV+; 51% female; ages 9-16 at baseline). Youth and caregivers were administered 5 interviews, spanning approximately 7.5 years. Using longitudinal logistic mixed-effect models, we explored the association between past year arrest, internal [e.g., substance use disorder (SUD)] and external (e.g., neighborhood arrest rates) contextual factors, and social-regulation processes (e.g., in-school/work). Arrest rates increased from 2.6 to 19.7% across follow-ups; there were no differences in arrest over time by HIV status. In the final model, odds of arrest were greater for youth who were male, with SUD, ≥ 18 years old, with high levels of city stress, and neither in school nor employed. PHIV-exposed, urban youth have much higher rates of arrest than national samples. Lack of differences in arrest by HIV status suggests key contextual factors are more important in promoting arrest.

What I'd Tell My 16-Year-Old Self: Criminal Desistance, Young Adults, and Psychosocial Maturation

This study qualitatively explored how young adult men on probation or parole view the components of psychosocial maturation that contribute to criminal desistance. The authors conducted nine focus groups with 40 men on probation or parole, including seven groups with men aged 18 to 25 years. Two additional focus groups were conducted with older men (ages 29-60 years) to refine our evolving understanding. According to the participants, psychosocial maturation processes of personal growth, learning from mistakes, considering consequences before acting, developing and executing long-range plans, improving peer associations, and recognizing and responding to a motivating event all contributed to their desire to change their course of criminal offending. These components map well onto existing theories of psychosocial maturation and criminal desistance and lend further insight into how young adult men perceive the psychological, emotional, and cognitive factors that can support their desistance goals.

Economic Impact of the Statewide Implementation of an Evidence-Based Treatment: Multisystemic Therapy in New Mexico

Several states have made considerable investments into large-scale implementation of evidence-based treatments (EBTs), yet little is known about key success indicators for these implementation efforts such as cost and sustainability. To that end, the present study examined the economic impact of statewide implementation of multisystemic therapy (MST; Henggeler, Schoenwald, Borduin, Rowland, & Cuningham, 2009), a family- and community-based behavioral EBT for serious juvenile offenders in New Mexico. Participants were 1,869 youth who received MST across 23 teams during the study period. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis using metrics from state data sources that compared the cost of MST to its benefits (i.e., avoided expenses from pre- to posttreatment) in two domains: (a) behavioral health services (i.e., Medicaid claims) and (b) juvenile crime (i.e., taxpayer expenses, tangible and intangible expenses to crime victims). MST costs were based on Medicaid claims, which were reimbursed at an enhanced billing rate that was intended to cover expenses for both clinical and implementation (e.g., training, quality assurance) activities. Results suggest that implementation of MST in New Mexico over the 7-year study period may have produced net benefits, through 2 years posttreatment, of more than $4,643 per youth in avoided behavioral health claims and $15,019 per youth through reductions in juvenile crime. Stated differently, every dollar that New Mexico spent on MST appeared to have returned $3.34 for a total benefit of $64.2 million over the course of the study. We discuss implications of these findings for policymakers, administrators, and researchers who are interested in increasing the sustainability of complex EBTs in community settings.