Geography may explain adult mortality from the 1918-20 influenza pandemic

The 1919-21 influenza pandemic in Greenland

In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in excess mortality in Greenland during the period 1918-21 and compare these to other epidemics and the 1889-92 pandemic. We accessed the Greenlandic National Archives and transcribed all deaths from 1880 to 1921 by age, geography, and cause of death. We estimated monthly excess mortality and studied the spatial-temporal patterns of the pandemics and compared them to other mortality crises in the 40-year period. The 1918-21 influenza pandemic arrived in Greenland in the summer of 1919, one year delayed due to ship traffic interruptions during the winter months. We found that 5.2% of the Greenland population died of the pandemic with substantial variability between counties (range, 0.1% to 11%). We did not see the typical pandemic age-pattern of high young-adult mortality, possibly due to high baseline mortality in this age-group or remoteness. However, despite substantial mortality, the mortality impact was not standing out relative to other mortality crises, or of similar devastation reported in Alaskan populations.

Comparative analysis of COVID-19 diagnoses and mortality among hospitalized indigenous and non-indigenous populations in Chile: 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Current literature presents mixed effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indigenous communities. We aim to highlight potential disparities and temporal shifts in both the impact of COVID-19 and vaccine uptake among hospitalized Indigenous populations in Chile.

METHODS

We conducted an observational analysis utilizing 1,598,492 hospitalization records from 2020 to 2021 based on publicly accessible hospital discharge data spanning 65 healthcare facilities of medium and high complexity funded through the Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRG) mechanism in Chile, representing roughly 70% of the country's total hospitalizations. This was supplemented with publicly available municipal data on COVID-19 vaccinations and socio-demographic variables. We performed logistic regression analysis at 0.05 level of significance to assess the bivariate and multivariable association of Indigenous status with COVID-19 diagnosis and COVID-19 deaths among hospitalized populations. We also performed univariate and multiple linear regression to assess the association of COVID-19 vaccination rate and Indigenous status at the municipality level. In addition, we report the distribution of top 10 secondary diagnoses among hospitalized COVID-19 cases and deaths separately for Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations.

RESULTS

Indigenous populations displayed lower adjusted odds for both COVID-19 diagnosis (OR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.77) and death (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.97) when compared to non-Indigenous groups. Notably, the adjusted odds ratio for COVID-19 diagnosis in Indigenous populations rose from 0.59 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.61) in 2020 to 1.17 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.21) in 2021. Factors such as the significantly higher median age and greater number of comorbidities in the non-Indigenous hospitalized groups could account for their increased odds of COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality. Additionally, our data indicates a significantly negative adjusted association between COVID-19 vaccination rates and the proportion of Indigenous individuals.

CONCLUSION

Although Indigenous populations initially showed lower odds of COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality, a marked rise in diagnosis odds among these groups in 2021 underscores the urgency of targeted interventions. The observed negative association between the proportion of Indigenous populations and vaccination rates further underscores the necessity to tackle vaccine access barriers and work towards equitable distribution.

One hundred years of influenza A evolution

Leveraging the simplicity of nucleotide mismatch distributions, we provide an intuitive window into the evolution of the human influenza A 'nonstructural' (NS) gene segment. In an analysis suggested by the eminent Danish biologist Freddy B. Christiansen, we illustrate the existence of a continuous genetic "backbone" of influenza A NS sequences, steadily increasing in nucleotide distance to the 1918 root over more than a century. The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic represents a clear departure from this enduring genetic backbone. Utilizing nucleotide distance maps and phylogenetic analyses, we illustrate remaining uncertainties regarding the origin of the 2009 pandemic, highlighting the complexity of influenza evolution. The NS segment is interesting precisely because it experiences less pervasive positive selection, and departs less strongly from neutral evolution than e.g. the HA antigen. Consequently, sudden deviations from neutral diversification can indicate changes in other genes via the hitchhiking effect. Our approach employs two measures based on nucleotide mismatch counts to analyze the evolutionary dynamics of the NS gene segment. The rooted Hamming map of distances between a reference sequence and all other sequences over time, and the unrooted temporal Hamming distribution which captures the distribution of genotypic distances between simultaneously circulating viruses, thereby revealing patterns of nucleotide diversity and epi-evolutionary dynamics.

Exploring the dynamics of COVID-19 in a Greenlandic cohort: Mild acute illness and moderate risk of long COVID

Objectives

This study aimed to explore how the Greenlandic population experienced the course of both acute and long-term COVID-19. It was motivated by the unique epidemiologic situation in Greenland, with delayed community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the rest of the world.

Methods

In a survey among 310 Greenlandic adults, we assessed the association between previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and overall health outcomes by administering three repeated questionnaires over 12 months after infection, with a response rate of 41% at the 12-month follow-up. The study included 128 individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from January/February 2022 and 182 test-negative controls. Participants were recruited through personal approaches, phone calls, and social media platforms.

Results

A total of 53.7% of 162 participants who were test-positive recovered within 4 weeks and 2.5% were hospitalized due to SARS-CoV-2. The most common symptoms were fatigue and signs of mild upper respiratory tract infection. Less than 5% reported sick leave above 2 weeks after infection. Compared with participants who were test-negative, there was an increased risk of reporting fatigue (risk differences 25.4%, 95% confidence interval 8.8-44.0) and mental exhaustion (risk differences 23.4%, 95% confidence interval 4.8-42.2) up to 12 months after a positive test.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that during a period dominated by the Omicron variant, Greenlanders experienced a mild acute course of COVID-19, with quick recovery, minimizing the impact on sick leave. Long COVID may be present in Greenlanders, with symptoms persisting up to 12 months after infection. However, it is important to consider the small sample size and modest response rate as limitations when interpreting the results.

Latest developments in early diagnosis and specific treatment of severe influenza infection

Influenza pandemics are unpredictable recurrent events with global health, economic, and social consequences. The objective of this review is to provide an update on the latest developments in early diagnosis and specific treatment of the disease and its complications, particularly with regard to respiratory organ failure. Despite advances in treatment, the rate of mortality in the intensive care unit remains approximately 30%. Therefore, early identification of potentially severe viral pneumonia is extremely important to optimize treatment in these patients. The pathogenesis of influenza virus infection depends on viral virulence and host response. Thus, in some patients, it is associated with an excessive systemic response mediated by an authentic cytokine storm. This process leads to severe primary pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Initial prognostication in the emergency department based on comorbidities, vital signs, and biomarkers (e.g., procalcitonin, ferritin, human leukocyte antigen-DR, mid-regional proadrenomedullin, and lactate) is important. Identification of these biomarkers on admission may facilitate clinical decision-making to determine early admission to the hospital or the intensive care unit. These decisions are reached considering pathophysiological circumstances that are associated with a poor prognosis (e.g., bacterial co-infection, hyperinflammation, immune paralysis, severe endothelial damage, organ dysfunction, and septic shock). Moreover, early implementation is important to increase treatment efficacy. Based on a limited level of evidence, all current guidelines recommend using oseltamivir in this setting. The possibility of drug resistance should also be considered. Alternative options include other antiviral drugs and combination therapies with monoclonal antibodies. Importantly, it is not recommended to use corticosteroids in the initial treatment of these patients. Furthermore, the implementation of supportive measures for respiratory failure is essential. Current recommendations are limited, heterogeneous, and not regularly updated. Early intubation and mechanical ventilation is the basic treatment for patients with severe respiratory failure. Prone ventilation should be promptly performed in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, while early tracheostomy should be considered in case of planned prolonged mechanical ventilation. Clinical trials on antiviral treatment and respiratory support measures specifically for these patients, as well as specific recommendations for different at-risk populations, are necessary to improve outcomes.

Socioeconomic mortality differences during the Great Influenza in Spain

Despite being one of the deadliest viruses in history, there is limited information on the socioeconomic factors that affected mortality rates during the Great Influenza Pandemic. In this study, we use occupation-province level data to investigate the relationship between influenza excess mortality rates and occupation-related status in Spain. We obtain three main results. Firstly, individuals in low-income occupations experienced the highest excess mortality, pointing to a notable income gradient. Secondly, professions that involved more social interaction were associated with a higher excess of mortality, regardless of income. Finally, we observe a substantial rural mortality penalty, even after controlling for income-related occupational groups. Based on this evidence, it seems that the high number of deaths was caused by not self-isolating. Some individuals did not quarantine themselves because they could not afford to miss work. In rural areas, home confinement was likely more limited because their inhabitants did not have immediate access to information about the pandemic or fully understand its impact due to their limited experience handling influenza outbreaks.

Age-specific mortality and the role of living remotely: The 1918-20 influenza pandemic in Kautokeino and Karasjok, Norway

The 1918-20 pandemic influenza killed 50-100 million people worldwide, but mortality varied by ethnicity and geography. In Norway, areas dominated by Sámi experienced 3-5 times higher mortality than the country's average. We here use data from burial registers and censuses to calculate all-cause excess mortality by age and wave in two remote Sámi areas of Norway 1918-20. We hypothesise that geographic isolation, less prior exposure to seasonal influenza, and thus less immunity led to higher Indigenous mortality and a different age distribution of mortality (higher mortality for all) than was typical for this pandemic in non-isolated majority populations (higher young adult mortality & sparing of the elderly). Our results show that in the fall of 1918 (Karasjok), winter of 1919 (Kautokeino), and winter of 1920 (Karasjok), young adults had the highest excess mortality, followed by also high excess mortality among the elderly and children. Children did not exhibit excess mortality in the second wave in Karasjok in 1920. It was not the young adults alone who produced the excess mortality in Kautokeino and Karasjok. We conclude that geographic isolation caused higher mortality among the elderly in the first and second waves, and among children in the first wave.

Improvements and Persisting Challenges in COVID-19 Response Compared with 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic Response, New Zealand (Aotearoa)

Exploring the results of the COVID-19 response in New Zealand (Aotearoa) is warranted so that insights can inform future pandemic planning. We compared the COVID-19 response in New Zealand to that for the more severe 1918–19 influenza pandemic. Both pandemics were caused by respiratory viruses, but the 1918–19 pandemic was short, intense, and yielded a higher mortality rate. The government and societal responses to COVID-19 were vastly superior; responses had a clear strategic direction and included a highly effective elimination strategy, border restrictions, minimal community spread for 20 months, successful vaccination rollout, and strong central government support. Both pandemics involved a whole-of-government response, community mobilization, and use of public health and social measures. Nevertheless, lessons from 1918–19 on the necessity of action to prevent inequities among different social groups were not fully learned, as demonstrated by the COVID-19 response and its ongoing unequal health outcomes in New Zealand.

Indigenous communities and influenza: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies have documented that specific Indigenous groups have been disproportionately affected by previous pandemics. The objective of this paper is to describe the protocol to be used in a review and meta-analysis of the literature on Indigenous groups and influenza. Using this protocol as a guide, a future study will provide a comprehensive historical overview of pre-COVID impact of influenza on Indigenous groups by combining data from the last five influenza pandemics and seasonal influenza up to date.

METHODS/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

The review will include peer-reviewed original studies published in English, Spanish, Portuguese, Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian. Records will be identified through systematic literature search in eight databases: Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Academic Search Ultimate, SocINDEX, ASSIA, and Google Scholar. Results will be summarized narratively and using meta-analytic strategies.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, there is no systematic review combining historical data on the impact of both seasonal and pandemic influenza on Indigenous populations. By summarizing results within and across Indigenous groups, different countries, and historical periods, as well as research in six different languages, we aim to provide information on how strong the risk for influenza is among Indigenous groups and how consistent this risk is across groups, regions, time, and seasonal versus the specific pandemic influenza strains.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021246391.

Metapopulation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a small-scale Amazonian society

The severity of infectious disease outbreaks is governed by patterns of human contact, which vary by geography, social organization, mobility, access to technology and healthcare, economic development, and culture. Whereas globalized societies and urban centers exhibit characteristics that can heighten vulnerability to pandemics, small-scale subsistence societies occupying remote, rural areas may be buffered. Accordingly, voluntary collective isolation has been proposed as one strategy to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and other pandemics on small-scale Indigenous populations with minimal access to healthcare infrastructure. To assess the vulnerability of such populations and the viability of interventions such as voluntary collective isolation, we simulate and analyze the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection among Amazonian forager-horticulturalists in Bolivia using a stochastic network metapopulation model parameterized with high-resolution empirical data on population structure, mobility, and contact networks. Our model suggests that relative isolation offers little protection at the population level (expected approximately 80% cumulative incidence), and more remote communities are not conferred protection via greater distance from outside sources of infection, due to common features of small-scale societies that promote rapid disease transmission such as high rates of travel and dense social networks. Neighborhood density, central household location in villages, and household size greatly increase the individual risk of infection. Simulated interventions further demonstrate that without implausibly high levels of centralized control, collective isolation is unlikely to be effective, especially if it is difficult to restrict visitation between communities as well as travel to outside areas. Finally, comparison of model results to empirical COVID-19 outcomes measured via seroassay suggest that our theoretical model is successful at predicting outbreak severity at both the population and community levels. Taken together, these findings suggest that the social organization and relative isolation from urban centers of many rural Indigenous communities offer little protection from pandemics and that standard control measures, including vaccination, are required to counteract effects of tight-knit social structures characteristic of small-scale populations.

Influenza-associated hospitalisation and mortality rates among global Indigenous populations; a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

More than 50 million influenza infections and over 100,000 deaths from influenza occur annually. While Indigenous populations experience an inequitable influenza burden, the magnitude of this inequity has not previously been estimated on a global scale. This study compared rates of influenza-associated hospitalisation and mortality between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations globally.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted including literature published prior to 13 July 2021. Eligible articles either reported a rate ratio (RR) comparing laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalisation and/or mortality between an Indigenous population and a corresponding benchmark population, or reported sufficient information for this to be calculated using publicly available data. Findings were reported by country/region and pooled by country and period (pandemic/seasonal) when multiple studies were available using a random-effects model. The I2 statistic assessed variability between studies.

RESULTS

Thirty-six studies (moderate/high quality) were included; all from high or high-middle income countries. The pooled influenza-associated hospitalisation RR (HRR) for indigenous compared to benchmark populations was 5·7 (95% CI: 2·7-12·0) for Canada, 5·2 (2.9-9.3) for New Zealand, and 5.2 (4.2-6.4) for Australia. Of the Australian studies, the pooled HRR for seasonal influenza was 3.1 (2·7-3·5) and for pandemic influenza was 6·2 (5·1-7·5). Heterogeneity was slightly higher among studies of pandemic influenza than seasonal influenza. The pooled mortality RR was 4.1 (3·0-5.7) in Australia and 3·3 (2.7-4.1) in the United States.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnic inequities in severe influenza persist and must be addressed by reducing disparities in the underlying determinants of health. Influenza surveillance systems worldwide should include Indigenous status to determine the extent of the disease burden among Indigenous populations. Ethnic inequities in pandemic influenza illustrate the need to prioritise Indigenous populations in pandemic response plans.

Unequal excess mortality during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands

A century after the Spanish Flu, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought renewed attention to socioeconomic and occupational differences in mortality in the earlier pandemic. The magnitude of these differences and the pathways between occupation and increased mortality remain unclear, however. In this paper, we explore the relation between occupational characteristics and excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands. By creating a new occupational coding for exposure to disease at work, we separate social status and occupational conditions for viral transmission. We use a new data set based on men's death certificates to calculate excess mortality rates by region, age group, and occupational group. Using OLS regression models, we estimate whether social position, regular interaction in the workplace, and working in an enclosed space affected excess mortality among men in the Netherlands in the autumn of 1918. We find some evidence that men with occupations that featured high levels of social contact had higher mortality in this period. Above all, however, we find a strong socioeconomic gradient to excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic, even after accounting for exposure in the workplace.

Lost Lessons of the 1918 Influenza: The 1920s Working Hypothesis, the Public Health Paradigm, and the Prevention of Deadly Pandemics

In standard historical accounts, the hyperlethal 1918 flu pandemic was inevitable once a novel influenza virus appeared. However, in the years following the pandemic, it was obvious to distinguished flu experts from around the world that social and environmental conditions interacted with infectious agents and could enhance the virulence of flu germs. On the basis of the timing and geographic pattern of the pandemic, they hypothesized that an "essential cause" of the pandemic's extraordinary lethality was the extreme, prolonged, and industrial-scale overcrowding of US soldiers in World War I, particularly on troopships. This literature synthesis considers research from history, public health, military medicine, veterinary science, molecular genetics, virology, immunology, and epidemiology. Arguments against the hypothesis do not provide disconfirming evidence. Overall, the findings are consistent with an immunologically similar virus varying in virulence in response to war-related conditions. The enhancement-of-virulence hypothesis deserves to be included in the history of the pandemic and the war. These lost lessons of 1918 point to possibilities for blocking the transformation of innocuous infections into deadly disasters and are relevant beyond influenza for diseases like COVID-19. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(10):1454-1464. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306976).

Racial Disparities in Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in United States Cities

Against a backdrop of extreme racial health inequality, the 1918 influenza pandemic resulted in a striking reduction of non-White to White influenza and pneumonia mortality disparities in United States cities. We provide the most complete account to date of these reduced racial disparities, showing that they were unexpectedly uniform across cities. Linking data from multiple sources, we then examine potential explanations for this finding, including city-level sociodemographic factors such as segregation, implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions, racial differences in exposure to the milder spring 1918 "herald wave," and racial differences in early-life influenza exposures, resulting in differential immunological vulnerability to the 1918 flu. While we find little evidence for the first three explanations, we offer suggestive evidence that racial variation in childhood exposure to the 1889-1892 influenza pandemic may have shrunk racial disparities in 1918. We also highlight the possibility that differential behavioral responses to the herald wave may have protected non-White urban populations. By providing a comprehensive description and examination of racial inequality in mortality during the 1918 pandemic, we offer a framework for understanding disparities in infectious disease mortality that considers interactions between the natural histories of particular microbial agents and the social histories of those they infect.

Pandemics, past and present: The role of biological anthropology in interdisciplinary pandemic studies

Biological anthropologists are ideally suited for the study of pandemics given their strengths in human biology, health, culture, and behavior, yet pandemics have historically not been a major focus of research. The COVID‐19 pandemic has reinforced the need to understand pandemic causes and unequal consequences at multiple levels. Insights from past pandemics can strengthen the knowledge base and inform the study of current and future pandemics through an anthropological lens. In this paper, we discuss the distinctive social and epidemiological features of pandemics, as well as the ways in which biological anthropologists have previously studied infectious diseases, epidemics, and pandemics. We then review interdisciplinary research on three pandemics–1918 influenza, 2009 influenza, and COVID‐19–focusing on persistent social inequalities in morbidity and mortality related to sex and gender; race, ethnicity, and Indigeneity; and pre‐existing health and disability. Following this review of the current state of pandemic research on these topics, we conclude with a discussion of ways biological anthropologists can contribute to this field moving forward. Biological anthropologists can add rich historical and cross‐cultural depth to the study of pandemics, provide insights into the biosocial complexities of pandemics using the theory of syndemics, investigate the social and health impacts of stress and stigma, and address important methodological and ethical issues. As COVID‐19 is unlikely to be the last global pandemic, stronger involvement of biological anthropology in pandemic studies and public health policy and research is vital.

History Repeating-How Pandemics Collide with Health Disparities in the United States

Across the United States, public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have fallen short. COVID-19 has exacerbated longstanding public health shortfalls in disadvantaged communities. Was this predestined? Understanding where we are today requires reflection on our longer journey. Disparities cataloged during COVID-19 reflect the same unequal host exposure and susceptibility risks that shaped previous pandemics. In this review, we provide historical context to better understand current events and to showcase forgotten lessons which may motivate future action to protect our most vulnerable citizens.

Not the great equalizers: Covid-19, 1918-20 influenza, and the need for a paradigm shift in pandemic preparedness

Despite common perceptions to the contrary, pandemic diseases do not affect populations indiscriminately. In this paper, we review literature produced by demographers, historians, epidemiologists, and other researchers on disparities during the 1918-20 influenza pandemic and the Covid-19 pandemic. Evidence from these studies demonstrates that lower socio-economic status and minority/stigmatized race or ethnicity are associated with higher morbidity and mortality. However, such research often lacks theoretical frameworks or appropriate data to explain the mechanisms underlying these disparities fully. We suggest using a framework that considers proximal and distal factors contributing to differential exposure, susceptibility, and consequences as one way to move this research forward. Further, current pandemic preparedness plans emphasize medically defined risk groups and epidemiological approaches. Therefore, we conclude by arguing in favour of a transdisciplinary paradigm that recognizes socially defined risk groups, includes input from the social sciences and humanities and other diverse perspectives, and contributes to the reduction of health disparities before a pandemic hits.

Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden

What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.

Amino acid sites related to the PB2 subunits of IDV affect polymerase activity

BACKGROUND

In 2011, a new influenza virus, named Influenza D Virus (IDV), was isolated from pigs, and then cattle, presenting influenza-like symptoms. IDV is one of the causative agents of Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD), which causes high morbidity and mortality in feedlot cattle worldwide. To date, the molecular mechanisms of IDV pathogenicity are unknown. Recent IDV outbreaks in cattle, along with serological and genetic evidence of IDV infection in humans, have raised concerns regarding the zoonotic potential of this virus. Influenza virus polymerase is a determining factor of viral pathogenicity to mammals.

METHODS

Here we take a prospective approach to this question by creating a random mutation library about PB2 subunit of the IDV viral polymerase to test which amino acid point mutations will increase viral polymerase activity, leading to increased pathogenicity of the virus.

RESULTS

Our work shows some exact sites that could affect polymerase activities in influenza D viruses. For example, two single-site mutations, PB2-D533S and PB2-G603Y, can independently increase polymerase activity. The PB2-D533S mutation alone can increase the polymerase activity by 9.92 times, while the PB2-G603Y mutation increments the activity by 8.22 times.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, our findings provide important insight into IDV replication fitness mediated by the PB2 protein, increasing our understanding of IDV replication and pathogenicity and facilitating future studies.

Covid-19 and its impact on global mental health

The COVID-19 pandemic may cause a possible rise in incidents associated with mental health issues which may lead to suicidal behaviors such as suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and actual suicide worldwide. COVID-19, manifested by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) in affected people, has been declared by the World Health Organization to be a public health emergency of international concern. The unpredictable consequences and uncertainty surrounding public safety, quarantine and isolation, fake news, and myths about COVID-19, particularly abounding in social media, may negatively impact an individual's mental health, causing depression, anxiety, phobia, and traumatic stress. It has been established that around 90% of global suicides are individuals who suffer from depression. This has been similarly reported to have been occurring in the past epidemics and pandemics.

Improved pathogenicity of H9N2 subtype of avian influenza virus induced by mutations occurred after serial adaptations in mice

H9N2 subtype, a low pathogenic avian influenza virus, is emerging as a major causative agent circulating poultry workplaces across China and other Asian countries. Increasing case number of interspecies transmissions to mammals reported recently provoked a great concern about its risks inducing global pandemics. In an attempt to understand the underlying mechanism of how the H9N2 virus disrupts the interspecies segregation to transmit to mammals. A mutant H9N2 strain was obtained by passaging the wildtype H9N2 A/chicken/Hong Kong/G9/1997 eight times from lung to lung in BALB/c mice. Our finding revealed that mice manifested severe clinical symptoms including losses of body weight, pathological damages in pulmonary sites and all died within two weeks after infected with the mutated H9N2, whereas all mice survived upon infected with wildtype strain in comparison, which suggested increased pathogenicity of the mutant strain. In addition, mice showed enhanced levels of proinflammatory cytokines in sera, including IL-6, TNF-α and IL-1β compared to those subjected to wildtype viral infections. Sequence analysis showed that five amino acid substitutions occurred at PB2₆₂₇, HA_87, HA₂₃₄, NP₃₈₇ and M₁₅₆, and a deletion mutation happened in the M gene (M₁₅₇). Of these mutations, PB2 E627K played key roles in modulating lethality in mice. Taken together, the mutant H9N2 strain obtained by serial passaging of its wildtype in mice significantly increased its virulence leading to death of mice, which might be associated the accumulated mutations occurred on its genome.

Tracking Pandemic Severity Using Data on the Age Structure of Mortality: Lessons From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan

Objectives. To test whether distortions in the age structure of mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Michigan tracked the severity of the pandemic. Methods. We calculated monthly excess deaths during the period of 1918 to 1920 by using monthly data on all-cause deaths for the period of 1912 to 1920 in Michigan. Next, we measured distortions in the age distribution of deaths by using the Kuiper goodness-of-fit test statistic comparing the monthly distribution of deaths by age in 1918 to 1920 with the baseline distribution for the corresponding month for 1912 to 1917. Results. Monthly distortions in the age distribution of deaths were correlated with excess deaths for the period of 1918 to 1920 in Michigan (r = 0.83; P < .001). Conclusions. Distortions in the age distribution of deaths tracked variations in the severity of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Public Health Implications. It may be possible to track the severity of pandemic activity with age-at-death data by identifying distortions in the age distribution of deaths. Public health authorities should explore the application of this approach to tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of complete data coverage or accurate cause-of-death data.

TLQP: Early-stage transportation lock-down and quarantine problem

The advent of COVID-19 is a sensible reminder of the vulnerability of our society to pandemics. We need to be better prepared for finding ways to stem such outbreaks. Except from social distancing and wearing face masks, restricting the movement of people is one important measure necessary to control the spread. Such decisions on the lock-down/reduction of movement should be made in an informed way and, accordingly, modeled as an optimization problem. We propose the Early-stage Transportation Lock-down and Quarantine Problem (TLQP), which can help to decide which parts of the transportation infrastructure of a country should be restricted in early stages. On top of the network-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, we establish a decision recommendation framework, which considers the lock-down of cross-border traffic, internal traffic, and movement inside individual populations. The combinatorial optimization problem aims to find the best set of actions which minimize the social cost of a lock-down. Given the inherent intractability of this problem, we develop a highly-efficient heuristic based on the Effective Distance (ED) path and the Cost-Effective Lazy Forward (CELF) algorithm. We perform and report experiments on the global spread of COVID-19 and show how individual countries may protect their population by taking appropriate measures against the threatening pandemic. We believe that our study contributes to the orchestration of measures for dealing with current and future epidemic outbreaks.

Archival Big Data and the Spanish Flu in Copenhagen

Purpose

The Spanish Flu 1918–1920 saw a high degree of excess mortality among young and healthy adults. The purpose of this paper is a further exploration of the hypothesis that high mortality risk during The Spanish Flu in Copenhagen was associated with early life exposure to The Russian Flu 1889–1892.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on 37,000 individual-level death records in a new unique database from The Copenhagen City Archives combined with approximate cohort-specific population totals interpolated from official censuses of population, the author compiles monthly time series on all-cause mortality rates 1916–1922 in Copenhagen by gender and one-year birth cohorts. The author then analyses birth cohort effects on mortality risk during The Spanish Flu using regression analysis.

Findings

The author finds support for hypotheses relating early life exposure to The Russian Flu to mortality risk during The Spanish Flu. Some indications of possible gender heterogeneity during the first wave of The Spanish Flu – not found in previous studies – should be a topic for future research based on data from other countries.

Originality/value

Due to lack of individual-level death records with exact dates of birth and death, previous studies on The Spanish Flu in Denmark and many other countries have relied on data with lower birth cohort resolutions than the one-year birth cohorts used in this study. The analysis in this paper illustrates how archival Big Data can be used to gain new insights in studies on historical pandemics.

Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu

Recent studies argue that major crises can have long-lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918-19: the so-called "Spanish Flu." This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the General Social Survey, we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals' social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the United States. As trust is a crucial factor for long-term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.

Black-white disparities in 2009 H1N1 vaccination among adults in the United States: A cautionary tale for the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Prior research has highlighted racial and ethnic disparities in H1N1 vaccination in the United States. Our study adds to this literature by utilizing an intersectionality framework to examine the joint influence of race and sex on H1N1 vaccination beliefs and behaviors among non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites (hereafter blacks and whites).

METHODS

Using data from the National H1N1 Flu Survey of U.S. adults, we measured differences in beliefs about the safety and efficacy of the H1N1 vaccine among black women, black men, white women, and white men. We then estimated a series of nested logistic regression models to examine how race/sex vaccination disparities were influenced by health beliefs, socioeconomic status (SES), pre-existing conditions, and healthcare.

RESULTS

Black respondents were more likely than white respondents to express reservations about the safety and efficacy of the H1N1 vaccine. Consistent with those beliefs, white females reported the highest rate of H1N1 vaccination (28.4%), followed by white males (26.3%), black males (21.6%), and black females (17.5%). Differences in health beliefs, SES, pre-existing conditions, and healthcare explained lower odds of H1N1 vaccination among white men and black men, relative to white women. However, black women experienced 35-45% lower odds of vaccination than white women across all models, highlighting the intersectional nature of these associations.

DISCUSSION

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic provides a cautionary tale about the distribution of new vaccines across large populations with diverse racial, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics. Despite differences between the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics, our study warns that many black Americans will forego COVID-19 vaccines unless swift action is taken to address black-white disparities in access to vital resources. Public health stakeholders can also encourage widespread adoption of COVID-19 vaccines by tailoring health promotion messages for different groups of racial minorities, especially groups like black women who face intersecting disadvantages.

Systematic analysis of infectious disease outcomes by age shows lowest severity in school-age children

The COVID-19 pandemic has ignited interest in age-specific manifestations of infection but surprisingly little is known about relative severity of infectious disease between the extremes of age. In a systematic analysis we identified 142 datasets with information on severity of disease by age for 32 different infectious diseases, 19 viral and 13 bacterial. For almost all infections, school-age children have the least severe disease, and severity starts to rise long before old age. Indeed, for many infections even young adults have more severe disease than children, and dengue was the only infection that was most severe in school-age children. Together with data on vaccine response in children and young adults, the findings suggest peak immune function is reached around 5-14 years of age. Relative immune senescence may begin much earlier than assumed, before accelerating in older age groups. This has major implications for understanding resilience to infection, optimal vaccine scheduling, and appropriate health protection policies across the life course.

A Forgotten Danger: Burden of Influenza Mortality Among American Indians and Alaska Natives, 1999-2016

American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) are the only racial group in the United States that is identified as having a higher risk for developing influenza-related complications. As such, influenza-related mortality has consistently been one of the leading causes of death among AI/ANs. In addition, estimating influenza-related mortality is hampered by significant degrees of racial misclassification and underreporting of both morbidity and mortality data in the AI/AN population. Using data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we analyzed influenza mortality by geography, race, gender, and age group to improve our understanding of the influenza burden on AI/AN communities. We found that while mortality rates generally declined across the AI/AN population, significant disparities exist between AI/ANs and non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). The greatest disparities occurred at the earliest stages of life, with mortality rates for AI/AN children younger than 5 years being more than 2 times higher than for NHW children. Similarly, the burden of influenza-related mortality among AI/AN adults emerged much earlier in life compared with NHWs. Perhaps most important, though, we found significant disparities in the geographic distribution of influenza-related mortality among AI/ANs. Because these are largely vaccine-preventable deaths, these results identify an area for targeted intervention to reduce the overall deaths attributable to influenza.

The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI

The H1N1 "Spanish influenza" pandemic of 1918-1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temperatures increased casualties in the battlefields of World War I (WWI), setting the stage for the spread of the pandemic at the end of the conflict. Multiple independent records of temperature, precipitation, and mortality corroborate these findings.

Island Geographies of Separation and Cohesion: The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Geopolitics of Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland)

Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland) is an Arctic highly autonomous subnational island jurisdiction (SNIJ) of Denmark, its former coloniser. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020 has influenced both Kalaallit Nunaat's relations with the outside world and relations between people and places within the territory. The Kalaallit Nunaat government's response to the pandemic, including both internal and external travel bans and restrictions on movement, has focused on eradicating the disease from the territory. This strategy, however, is challenged both by the SNIJ's economic reliance on Denmark and by the Danish government's own strategy of mitigating the disease. This paper explores the ways in which the coronavirus pandemic has altered how the people of Kalaallit Nunaat interact with the people of Denmark and with one another, ultimately shedding light on the relationship between islands, disease, and geopolitics more generally.

Distribution of COVID-19 Morbidity Rate in Association with Social and Economic Factors in Wuhan, China: Implications for Urban Development

Social and economic factors relate to the prevention and control of infectious diseases. The purpose of this paper was to assess the distribution of COVID-19 morbidity rate in association with social and economic factors and discuss the implications for urban development that help to control infectious diseases. This study was a cross-sectional study. In this study, social and economic factors were classified into three dimensions: built environment, economic activities, and public service status. The method applied in this study was the spatial regression analysis. In the 13 districts in Wuhan, the spatial regression analysis was applied. The results showed that: 1) increasing population density, construction land area proportion, value-added of tertiary industry per unit of land area, total retail sales of consumer goods per unit of land area, public green space density, aged population density were associated with an increased COVID-19 morbidity rate due to the positive characteristics of estimated coefficients of these variables. 2) increasing average building scale, GDP per unit of land area, and hospital density were associated with a decreased COVID-19 morbidity rate due to the negative characteristics of estimated coefficients of these variables. It was concluded that it is possible to control infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, by adjusting social and economic factors. We should guide urban development to improve human health.

Health Challenges of the Pacific Region: Insights From History, Geography, Social Determinants, Genetics, and the Microbiome

The Pacific region, also referred to as Oceania, is a geographically widespread region populated by people of diverse cultures and ethnicities. Indigenous people in the region (Melanesians, Polynesians, Micronesians, Papuans, and Indigenous Australians) are over-represented on national, regional, and global scales for the burden of infectious and non-communicable diseases. Although social and environmental factors such as poverty, education, and access to health-care are assumed to be major drivers of this disease burden, there is also developing evidence that genetic and microbiotic factors should also be considered. To date, studies investigating genetic and/or microbiotic links with vulnerabilities to infectious and non-communicable diseases have mostly focused on populations in Europe, Asia, and USA, with uncertain associations for other populations such as indigenous communities in Oceania. Recent developments in personalized medicine have shown that identifying ethnicity-linked genetic vulnerabilities can be important for medical management. Although our understanding of the impacts of the gut microbiome on health is still in the early stages, it is likely that equivalent vulnerabilities will also be identified through the interaction between gut microbiome composition and function with pathogens and the host immune system. As rapid economic, dietary, and cultural changes occur throughout Oceania it becomes increasingly important that further research is conducted within indigenous populations to address the double burden of high rates of infectious diseases and rapidly rising non-communicable diseases so that comprehensive development goals can be planned. In this article, we review the current knowledge on the impact of nutrition, genetics, and the gut microbiome on infectious diseases in indigenous people of the Pacific region.

Race and 1918 Influenza Pandemic in the United States: A Review of the Literature

During epidemics, the poorest part of the population usually suffers the most. Alfred Crosby noted that the norm changed during the 1918 influenza pandemic in the US: The black population (which were expected to have higher influenza morbidity and mortality) had lower morbidity and mortality than the white population during the autumn of 1918. Crosby's explanation for this was that black people were more exposed to a mild spring/summer wave of influenza earlier that same year. In this paper, we review the literature from the pandemic of 1918 to better understand the crossover in the role of race on mortality. The literature has used insurance, military, survey, and routine notification data. Results show that the black population had lower morbidity, and during September, October, and November, lower mortality but higher case fatality than the white population. The results also show that the black population had lower influenza morbidity prior to 1918. The reasons for lower morbidity among the black population both at baseline and during the herald and later waves in 1918 remain unclear. Results may imply that black people had a lower risk of developing the disease given exposure, but when they did get sick, they had a higher risk of dying.

Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Coastal Kenya

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most significant pandemic recorded in human history. Worldwide, an estimated half billion persons were infected and 20 to 100 million people died in three waves during 1918 to 1919. Yet the impact of this pandemic has been poorly documented in many countries especially those in Africa. We used colonial-era records to describe the impact of 1918 influenza pandemic in the Coast Province of Kenya. We gathered quantitative data on facility use and all-cause mortality from 1912 to 1925, and pandemic-specific data from active reporting from September 1918 to March 1919. We also extracted quotes from correspondence to complement the quantitative data and describe the societal impact of the pandemic. We found that crude mortality rates and healthcare utilization increased six- and three-fold, respectively, in 1918, and estimated a pandemic mortality rate of 25.3 deaths/1000 people/year. Impact to society and the health care system was dramatic as evidenced by correspondence. In conclusion, the 1918 pandemic profoundly affected Coastal Kenya. Preparation for the next pandemic requires continued improvement in surveillance, education about influenza vaccines, and efforts to prevent, detect and respond to novel influenza outbreaks.

The Influence of Hispanic Ethnicity and Nativity Status on 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Vaccination Uptake in the United States

Previous research suggests Hispanic vaccination rates for H1N1 were similar to non-Hispanic whites. These previous estimates do not take into account nativity status. Using the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, we estimate adult H1N1 vaccination rates for non-Hispanic whites (n = 8780), U.S.-born Hispanics (n = 1142), and foreign-born Hispanics (n = 1912). To test Fundamental Cause Theory, we estimate odds of H1N1 vaccination while controlling for flexible resources (e.g., educational and economic capital), ethnicity, and nativity status. Foreign-born Hispanics experienced the lowest rates of H1N1 vaccination (15%), followed by U.S.-born Hispanics (18%) and non-Hispanic whites (21%). Regression models show odds of H1N1 vaccination did not differ among these three groups after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. Insufficient access to flexible resources and healthcare coverage among foreign-born Hispanics was responsible for relatively low rates of H1N1 vaccination. Addressing resource disparities among Hispanics could increase vaccination uptake in the future, reducing inequities in disease burden.

IFITM3: How genetics influence influenza infection demographically

The role of host genetics in influenza infection is unclear despite decades of interest. Confounding factors such as age, sex, ethnicity and environmental factors have made it difficult to assess the role of genetics without influence. In recent years a single nucleotide polymorphism, interferon-induced transmembrane protein 3 (IFITM3) rs12252, has been shown to alter the severity of influenza infection in Asian populations. In this review we investigate this polymorphism as well as several others suggested to alter the host's defence against influenza infection. In addition, we highlight the open questions surrounding the viral restriction protein IFITM3 with the hope that by answering some of these questions we can elucidate the mechanism of IFITM3 viral restriction and therefore how this restriction is altered due to the rs12252 polymorphism.

Short-Term Birth Sequelae of the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in the United States: State-Level Analysis

This paper examines short-term birth sequelae of the influenza pandemic of 1918-1920 in the United States using monthly data on births and all-cause deaths for 19 US states in conjunction with data on maternal deaths, stillbirths, and premature births. The data on births and all-cause deaths are adjusted for seasonal and trend effects, and the residual components of the 2 time series coinciding with the timing of peak influenza mortality are examined for these sequelae. Notable findings include: 1) a drop in births in the 3 months following peak mortality; 2) a reversion in births to normal levels occurring 5-7 months after peak mortality; and 3) a steep drop in births occurring 9-10 months after peak mortality. Interpreted in the context of parallel data showing elevated premature births, stillbirths, and maternal mortality during times of peak influenza mortality, these findings suggest that the main impacts of the 1918-1920 influenza on reproduction occurred through: 1) impaired conceptions, possibly due to effects on fertility and behavioral changes; 2) an increase in the preterm delivery rate during the peak of the pandemic; and 3) elevated maternal and fetal mortality, resulting in late-term losses in pregnancy.

Natality Decline and Spatial Variation in Excess Death Rates During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Arizona, United States

A large body of epidemiologic research has concentrated on the 1918 influenza pandemic, but more work is needed to understand spatial variation in pandemic mortality and its effects on natality. We collected and analyzed 35,151 death records from Arizona for 1915–1921 and 21,334 birth records from Maricopa county for 1915–1925. We estimated the number of excess deaths and births before, during, and after the pandemic period, and we found a significant decline in the number of births occurring 9–11 months after peak pandemic mortality. Moreover, excess mortality rates were highest in northern Arizona counties, where Native Americans were historically concentrated, suggesting a link between ethnic and/or sociodemographic factors and risk of pandemic-related death. The relationship between birth patterns and pandemic mortality risk should be further studied at different spatial scales and in different ethnic groups.

Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain

Although much progress has been made to uncover age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in populations around the world, more studies in different populations are needed to make sense of the heterogeneous death impact of this pandemic. We assessed the absolute and relative magnitudes of 3 pandemic waves in the city of Madrid, Spain, between 1918 and 1920, on the basis of age-specific all-cause and respiratory excess death rates. Excess death rates were estimated using a Serfling model with a parametric bootstrapping approach to calibrate baseline death levels with quantified uncertainty. Excess all-cause and pneumonia and influenza mortality rates were estimated for different pandemic waves and age groups. The youngest and oldest persons experienced the highest excess mortality rates, and young adults faced the highest standardized mortality risk. Waves differed in strength; the peak standardized mortality risk occurred during the herald wave in spring 1918, but the highest excess rates occurred during the fall and winter of 1918/1919. Little evidence was found to support a “W”-shaped, age-specific excess mortality curve. Acquired immunity may have tempered a protracted fall wave, but recrudescent waves following the initial 2 outbreaks heightened the total pandemic mortality impact.

Sex- and age-based differences in mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic on the island of Newfoundland

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to understand sex- and age-based differences in mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic on the island of Newfoundland. The pandemic's impact on different age groups has been the focus of other research, but sex-based differences in mortality are rarely considered. Aspects of social organization, labor patterns, and social behaviors that contribute to mortality between males and females at all ages are used to explain observed mortality patterns.

METHODS

Recorded pneumonia and influenza deaths on the island (n = 1871) were used to calculate cause-specific death rates and to evaluate differences in sex-based mortality. Mortality levels in 17 districts and four regions (Avalon, North, South, and West) were compared using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). A logistic regression model was fit to determine in which regions sex-based mortality could be predicted using age and region as interactive predictors.

RESULTS

Differences in sex-based mortality varied across regions; they were not significant for the aggregate population. SMRs were also variable, with no significant sex-based differences. Sex-based differences were highly variable within regions. Results from a logistic regression analysis suggest that females in the South region may have experienced a higher probability of death than other island residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality analysis for aggregate populations homogenizes important epidemiologic patterns. Men and women did not experience the 1918 influenza pandemic in the same way, and by analyzing data at the regional and district geographic levels, patterns emerge that can be explained by the economies and social organization of the people who lived there.

Influenza, evolution, and the next pandemic

Mortality rates in influenza appear to have been shaped by evolution. During the 1918 pandemic, mortality rates were lower in children compared with adults. This mortality difference occurs in a wide variety of infectious diseases. It has been replicated in mice and might be due to greater tolerance of infection, not greater resistance. Importantly, combination treatment with inexpensive and widely available generic drugs (e.g. statins and angiotensin receptor blockers) might change the damaging host response in adults to a more tolerant response in children. These drugs might work by modifying endothelial dysfunction, mitochondrial biogenesis and immunometabolism. Treating the host response might be the only practical way to reduce global mortality during the next influenza pandemic. It might also help reduce mortality due to seasonal influenza and other forms of acute critical illness. To realize these benefits, we need laboratory and clinical studies of host response treatment before and after puberty.

Alignment-Free Analyses of Nucleic Acid Sequences Using Graphical Representation (with Special Reference to Pandemic Bird Flu and Swine Flu)

The exponential growth in database of bio-molecular sequences have spawned many approaches towards storage, retrieval, classification and analyses requirements. Alignment-free techniques such as graphical representations and numerical characterisation (GRANCH) methods have enabled some detailed analyses of large sequences and found a number of different applications in the eukaryotic and prokaryotic domain. In particular, recalling the history of pandemic influenza in brief, we have followed the progress of viral infections such as bird flu of 1997 onwards and determined that the virus can spread conserved over space and time, that influenza virus can undergo fairly conspicuous recombination-like events in segmented genes, that certain segments of the neuraminidase and hemagglutinin surface proteins remain conserved and can be targeted for peptide vaccines. We recount in some detail a few of the representative GRANCH techniques to provide a glimpse of how these methods are used in formulating quantitative sequence descriptors to analyse DNA, RNA and protein sequences to derive meaningful results. Finally, we survey the surveillance techniques with a special reference to how the GRANCH techniques can be used for the purpose and recount the forecasts made of possible metamorphosis of pandemic bird flu to pandemic human infecting agents.

A review of the 1918 herald pandemic wave: importance for contemporary pandemic response strategies

Mounting epidemiological evidence supports the occurrence of a mild herald pandemic wave in the spring and summer of 1918 in North America and Europe, several months before the devastating autumn outbreak that killed an estimated 2% of the global population. These epidemiological findings corroborate the anecdotal observations of contemporary clinicians who reported widespread influenza outbreaks in spring and summer 1918, with sporadic occurrence of unusually severe clinical manifestations in young adults. Initially seen as controversial, these findings were eventually confirmed by retrospective identification of influenza specimens collected from U.S. soldiers who died from acute respiratory infections in May-August 1918. Other studies found that having an episode of influenza illness during the spring herald wave was highly protective in the severe autumn wave. Here, we conduct a systematic review of the clinical, epidemiological, and virological evidence supporting the global occurrence of mild herald waves of the 1918 pandemic and place these historic observations in the context of pandemic preparedness. Taken together, historic experience with the 1918 and subsequent pandemics shows that increased severity in second and later pandemic waves may be the rule rather than the exception. Thus, a sustained pandemic response in the first years following a future pandemic is critical; conversely, multiwave pandemic patterns allow for more time to rollout vaccines and antivirals.

Excess mortality patterns during 1918-1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA

PURPOSE

Our understanding of the temporal dynamics and age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918-1921 influenza pandemic remains scarce due to lack of detailed respiratory mortality datasets in the United States and abroad.

METHODS

We manually retrieved individual death records from Arizona during 1915-1921 and applied time series models to estimate the age specific mortality burden of the 1918-1921 influenza pandemic. We estimated influenza-related excess mortality rates and mortality rate ratio increase over baseline based on pneumonia and influenza (P&I), respiratory, tuberculosis and all-cause death categories.

RESULTS

Based on our analysis of 35,151 individual mortality records from Arizona, we identified three successive pandemic waves in spring 1918, fall 1918-winter 1919 and winter 1920. The pandemic associated excess mortality rates per 10,000 population in Arizona was estimated at 83 for P&I, 86 for respiratory causes, 84 for all-causes and 9 for tuberculosis. Age-specific P&I and tuberculosis excess death rates were highest among 25- to 44-year-olds and individuals ≥65 years, respectively. The 25- to 44-year-olds and 5- to 14-year-olds had highest P&I and tuberculosis mortality impact respectively when considering the ratio over background mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The 1918-1921 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 0.8% of the Arizona population in three closely spaced consecutive waves. The mortality impact of the fall 1918 wave in Arizona lies in the upper range of previous estimates reported for other US settings and Europe, with a telltale age distribution of deaths concentrated among young adults. We identified a significant rise in tuberculosis-related mortality during the pandemic, lending support to the hypothesis that tuberculosis was a risk factor for severe pandemic infection. Our findings add to our current understanding of the mortality impact of this pandemic in the US and globally.