Observations of the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from the prepandemic period using web-based surveillance: a cross-sectional analysis

Identification of fungal pathogens among COVID-19 and non COVID-19 cases in Bhaktapur hospital, Nepal

OBJECTIVES

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are at increased risk of opportunistic fungal infections. This study aims to identify fungal pathogens among COVID positive and negative patients, assess their antifungal susceptibility and evaluate biofilm forming ability of Candida spp. A cross-sectional study was conducted among sputum samples from 135 COVID positive and 101 COVID negative cases. Fungal pathogens were identified by conventional culture methods. Antifungal susceptibility test of Candida isolates was done by disc diffusion method and biofilm production by microtiter plate method.

RESULTS

The prevalence of fungal pathogens among COVID-positive and negative cases was 6.70% and 22.77% respectively. In COVID positive cases, Candida albicans (33.33%) was predominantly followed by Aspergillus flavus 2(22.22%) and Candida tropicalis, Mucor spp. and Aspergillus fumigatus. In COVID negative cases, Candida albicans (69.60%) prevailed followed by Trichosporon spp., Candida parapsilosis, Mucor and Alternaria. Age and gender were not associated with fungal infection. Most Candida spp. were susceptible to miconazole but resistant to ketoconazole. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first report from Nepal on critical and high priority fungal pathogens categorized by WHO. With fungal infections on the rise, enhanced clinical vigilanceand antifungal susceptibility testing are warranted.

An overview of COVID-19 global epidemiology and discussion of potential drivers of variable global pandemic impacts

With a WHO-estimated excess mortality burden of 14.9 million over the course of 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a major human impact so far. It has also affected a range of disciplines, systems and practices from mathematical modelling to behavioural sciences, pharmaceutical development to health system management. This article explores these developments and, to set the scene, this paper summarizes the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from January 2020 to June 2021 and considers some potential drivers of variation.

Seroprevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM Antibodies among Government Employees in Iran

The COVID-19 disease emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly became a global health threat. Around 6,947,192 people have been killed around the world so far, including 146,292 in Iran. In addition to the definitive diagnosis of the disease by RT-PCR, immunological and serological tests can check the anti-SARS-CoV-2 N protein antibody titer in people at different stages of infection with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. The serological examination is an effective and efficient method for determining the prevalence of the disease, especially when asymptomatic cases are present or the diagnosis of symptomatic cases is incomplete. The study examined the seroprevalence of COVID-19 at the Razi Vaccine and Serum Research Institute (RVSRI) and the Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organization (AREEO). A total of 493 blood samples were collected from volunteers in June 2020 in AREEO, and 380 samples were collected in June and July 2020 in RVSRI. The total number of volunteers from both organizations was 873. Standard ELISA kits were used to measure IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. A statistical analysis of the obtained data was conducted using SPSS (version 22.0). Among the total 873 volunteers examined in RVSRI and AREEO, 10.5% had elevated serum titers either for IgM or IgG, 3.55% of whom were women and 6.95% were men. Generally, 8.8% of people tested positive for IgM, which showed a recent infection with COVID-19 in people at that time and partially indicated the start of a new wave of COVID-19. In RVSRI, 3.42% of people with positive IgM titers (positive or negative IgG titers) were women and 5.53% were men. In AREEO, 3.02% were women and 5.72% were men. The seroprevalence rate of COVID-19 in RVSRI was 11.6%, 4.2% of which were women and 7.35% were men, with no significant difference between women and men. The COVID-19 seroprevalence in AREEO was 9.7%, 3.22% of which were women and 6.5% were men, with no significant difference between women and men.

Temporal dynamic characteristics of human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 around the world under the COVID-19 pandemic background

Background

The reemergence of the monkeypox epidemic has aroused great concern internationally. Concurrently, the COVID-19 epidemic is still ongoing. It is essential to understand the temporal dynamics of the monkeypox epidemic in 2022 and its relationship with the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, we aimed to explore the temporal dynamic characteristics of the human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 and its relationship with those of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Methods

We used publicly available data of cumulative monkeypox cases and COVID-19 in 2022 and COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020 for model validation and further analyses. The time series data were fitted with a descriptive model using the sigmoid function. Two important indices (logistic growth rate and semi-saturation period) could be obtained from the model to evaluate the temporal characteristics of the epidemic.

Results

As for the monkeypox epidemic, the growth rate of infection and semi-saturation period showed a negative correlation (r = 0.47, p = 0.034). The growth rate also showed a significant relationship with the locations of the country in which it occurs [latitude (r = -0.45, p = 0.038)]. The development of the monkeypox epidemic did not show significant correlation compared with the that of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2022. When comparing the COVID-19 epidemic with that of monkeypox, a significantly longer semi-saturation period was observed for monkeypox, while a significant larger growth rate was found in COVID-19 in 2020.

Conclusions

This novel study investigates the temporal dynamics of the human monkeypox epidemic and its relationship with the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, which could provide more appropriate guidance for local governments to plan and implement further fit-for-purpose epidemic prevention policies.

Lessons Learned from CDC's Global COVID-19 Early Warning and Response Surveillance System

Early warning and response surveillance (EWARS) systems were widely used during the early COVID-19 response. Evaluating the effectiveness of EWARS systems is critical to ensuring global health security. We describe the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) global COVID-19 EWARS (CDC EWARS) system and the resources CDC used to gather, manage, and analyze publicly available data during the prepandemic period. We evaluated data quality and validity by measuring reporting completeness and compared these with data from Johns Hopkins University, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and indicator-based data from the World Health Organization. CDC EWARS was integral in guiding CDC's early COVID-19 response but was labor-intensive and became less informative as case-level data decreased and the pandemic evolved. However, CDC EWARS data were similar to those reported by other organizations, confirming the validity of each system and suggesting collaboration could improve EWARS systems during future pandemics.

Comparison of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australian children

There is limited understanding of antibody responses in children across different SARS-CoV-2 variants. As part of an ongoing household cohort study, we assessed the antibody response among unvaccinated children infected with Wuhan, Delta, or Omicron variants, as well as vaccinated children with breakthrough Omicron infection, using a SARS-CoV-2 S1-specific IgG assay and surrogate virus neutralization test (% inhibition). Most children infected with Delta (100%, 35/35) or Omicron (81.3%, 13/16) variants seroconverted by one month following infection. In contrast, 37.5% (21/56) children infected with Wuhan seroconverted, as previously reported. However, Omicron-infected children (geometric mean concentration 46.4 binding antibody units/ml; % inhibition = 16.3%) mounted a significantly lower antibody response than Delta (435.5 binding antibody untis/mL, % inhibition = 76.9%) or Wuhan (359.0 binding antibody units/mL, % inhibition = 74.0%). Vaccinated children with breakthrough Omicron infection mounted the highest antibody response (2856 binding antibody units/mL, % inhibition = 96.5%). Our findings suggest that despite a high seropositivity rate, Omicron infection in children results in lower antibody levels and function compared with Wuhan or Delta infection or with vaccinated children with breakthrough Omicron infection. Our data have important implications for public health measures and vaccination strategies to protect children.

Mortality due to noninfectious lower respiratory diseases: A spatiotemporal, cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Geography plays an important role in the incidence of respiratory diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology and geographical distribution of death due to noninfectious lower respiratory diseases (NILRDs).

Methods

Data related to all death due to NILRD in Kerman Province between 2012 and 2018 were extracted from the National Mortality Registry. The underlying causes of death were extracted from the registry based on the assigned codes from ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision) classification. The existence of spatial clusters and outliers was evaluated using local indicators of spatial association statistics.

Results

The frequency of death due to NILRD was 8005 persons during the 7 years of the study. The main cause of death was chronic lower respiratory disease (54.2%). Other causes of death were, respectively, lung diseases due to external agents (1.09%), other respiratory diseases mainly affecting the interstitium (1.16%), other diseases of pleura (0.57%), and other diseases of the respiratory system (42.13%). The age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates due to NILRD in the north and center of the province increased significantly from 2012 to 2018. Also, the results of cluster analysis identified northern regions as the clustered areas of NILRD.

Conclusions

Our findings showed a significant increase in mortality due to NILRD in Kerman Province during the 7 years of the study. To reduce this type of death, health policymakers should have environmental health plans and basic solutions, such as a warning system to reduce the commuting on highly air-polluted days and to control pollutants, especially in the industrial areas of the north of this province.

Isolation in the control of epidemic

Among many epidemic prevention measures, isolation is an important method to control the spread of infectious disease. Scholars rarely study the impact of isolation on disease dissemination from a quantitative perspective. In this paper, we introduce an isolation ratio and establish the corresponding model. The basic reproductive number and its biological explanation are given. The stability conditions of the disease-free and endemic equilibria are obtained by analyzing its distribution of characteristic values. It is shown that the isolation ratio has an important influence on the basic reproductive number and the stability conditions. Taking the COVID-19 in Wuhan as an example, isolating more than 68% of the population can control the spread of the epidemic. This method can provide precise epidemic prevention strategies for government departments. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the results.

Changes in temporal properties for epidemics of notifiable infectious diseases in China during the COVID-19 epidemic: population-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 was first reported in 2019, and the Chinese government immediately carried out stringent and effective control measures in response to the epidemics.

OBJECTIVE

These non-pharmaceutical interventions may have impacted incidences of other infectious diseases as well. Potential explanations underlying this reduction, however, are not clear. Hence, in this study, we aimed to study the influence of the COVID-19 prevention policies on other infectious diseases (mainly class B infectious diseases) in China.

METHODS

The time-series datasets between 2017 and 2021 for 23 notifiable infectious diseases were extracted from public datasets from the National Health Commission of China. Several indices (peak and trough amplitude, infection selectivity, preferred time to outbreak, oscillatory strength) of each infectious disease were calculated before and after the COVID-19 outbreak.

RESULTS

We found that the prevention and control policies for COVID-19 had a strong significant reduction effect on outbreaks of other infectious diseases. A clear event-related trough (ERT) was observed after the outbreak of COVID-19 under the strict control policies, and its decreasing amplitude is related to the infection selectivity and preferred outbreak time of the disease before the COVID-19. We also calculated the oscillatory strength before and after the COVID-19 outbreak and found that it is significantly stronger before the COVID-19 outbreak, and does not correlate with the trough amplitude.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results directly demonstrate that prevention policies for the COVID-19 have immediate additional benefits for controlling most class B infectious diseases, and several factors (infection selectivity, preferred outbreak time) may have contributed to the reduction of outbreaks. This study may guide the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control a wider range of infectious diseases.

CLINICALTRIAL

Oral Manifestations of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Comprehensive Clinicopathologic and Immunohistochemical Study

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) presents rapid transmission and significant mortality worldwide. It is responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The disease presents diverse clinical symptoms, including fever, cough, dyspnea, and pneumonia. However, other manifestations associated with COVID-19 need to be clarified, leading specialists to an early diagnosis and better prognosis. We describe the spectrum of clinicopathologic COVID-19-related oral lesions that can be the first and/or the unique manifestation of the disease. Fourteen patients with a mean age of 58 years (range: 23 to 88 y) with oral lesions were included. All patients were confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing. Patients demonstrated mild symptoms, including dysgeusia, anosmia, fever, and headache. The lesions were recognized and classified into 2 groups: (1) lesions caused by ischemia and/or hemorrhage and (2) lesions secondary to inflammatory events associated with viral load. The palate was most affected (n=8), followed by the tongue (n=4), and both the lip and palate (n=2). Histologic analysis demonstrated thrombosis of small arteries and capillaries, associated with areas of hemorrhage and chronic inflammatory infiltrate. Immunohistochemistry showed positive staining for spike protein (SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2) and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 in the surface epithelium, salivary glands, inflammatory cells, and endothelial cells. Although the incidence of oral lesions among patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 appears to be uncommon, these findings suggest that the oral mucosa can also be a target organ for SARS-CoV-2.

Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling

Background

To accelerate progress against malaria in high burden countries, a strategic reorientation of resources at the sub-national level is needed. This paper describes how mathematical modelling was used in mainland Tanzania to support the strategic revision that followed the mid-term review of the 2015–2020 national malaria strategic plan (NMSP) and the epidemiological risk stratification at the council level in 2018.

Methods

Intervention mixes, selected by the National Malaria Control Programme, were simulated for each malaria risk strata per council. Intervention mixes included combinations of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying, larval source management, and intermittent preventive therapies for school children (IPTsc). Effective case management was either based on estimates from the malaria indicator survey in 2016 or set to a hypothetical target of 85%. A previously calibrated mathematical model in OpenMalaria was used to compare intervention impact predictions for prevalence and incidence between 2016 and 2020, or 2022.

Results

For each malaria risk stratum four to ten intervention mixes were explored. In the low-risk and urban strata, the scenario without a ITN mass campaign in 2019, predicted high increase in prevalence by 2020 and 2022, while in the very-low strata the target prevalence of less than 1% was maintained at low pre-intervention transmission intensity and high case management. In the moderate and high strata, IPTsc in addition to existing vector control was predicted to reduce the incidence by an additional 15% and prevalence by 22%. In the high-risk strata, all interventions together reached a maximum reduction of 76%, with around 70% of that reduction attributable to high case management and ITNs. Overall, the simulated revised NMSP was predicted to achieve a slightly lower prevalence in 2020 compared to the 2015–2020 NMSP (5.3% vs 6.3%).

Conclusion

Modelling supported the choice of intervention per malaria risk strata by providing impact comparisons of various alternative intervention mixes to address specific questions relevant to the country. The use of a council-calibrated model, that reproduces local malaria trends, represents a useful tool for compiling available evidence into a single analytical platform, that complement other evidence, to aid national programmes with decision-making processes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04099-5.

COVID-19 smart diagnosis in the Emergency Department: all-in in practice

Introduction

Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) diagnosis has been a major problem in most Emergency Departments (EDs) and other senior care facilities. Various clinical manifestations, and the several radiologic and laboratory data combined with the misleading test results to identify the virus, are responsible for certain misdiagnoses, especially in suspected cases needing urgent management and treatment. Although emergency and other front-line physicians struggle to manage COVID-19 patients, still existent cases with ambiguous diagnosis trammel the ED safety and responsibility.

Areas Covered

This review article summarizes on a large scale the common information for the medical history, clinical examinations, radiology and laboratory data for SARS-CoV-2. We summarize the available literature using the PubMed, Science Direct and EMBASE databases published until December 2021 on the general information for COVID-19 diagnosis, and, finally, we propose algorithms for a precise and on-the-spot diagnosis the disease.

Expert Opinion

COVID-19 diagnosis has appeared to be such ambiguous, and physicians need to correlate medical history, medical examination, potential extrapulmonary manifestations, along with laboratory and radiologic data, for a prompt COVID-19 diagnosis.

Comparison of Seroconversion in Children and Adults With Mild COVID-19

IMPORTANCE

The immune response in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection is not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

To compare seroconversion in nonhospitalized children and adults with mild SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify factors that are associated with seroconversion.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This household cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 infection collected weekly nasopharyngeal and throat swabs and blood samples during the acute (median, 7 days for children and 12 days for adults [IQR, 4-13] days) and convalescent (median, 41 [IQR, 31-49] days) periods after polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnosis for analysis. Participants were recruited at The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Australia, from May 10 to October 28, 2020. Participants included patients who had a SARS-CoV-2-positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab specimen using PCR analysis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) and cellular (T cell and B cell) responses in children and adults. Seroconversion was defined by seropositivity in all 3 (an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA] and 2 commercial assays: a SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG assay and a SARS-CoV-2 antibody ELISA) serological assays.

RESULTS

Among 108 participants with SARS-CoV-2-positive PCR findings, 57 were children (35 boys [61.4%]; median age, 4 [IQR, 2-10] years) and 51 were adults (28 women [54.9%]; median age, 37 [IQR, 34-45] years). Using the 3 established serological assays, a lower proportion of children had seroconversion to IgG compared with adults (20 of 54 [37.0%] vs 32 of 42 [76.2%]; P < .001). This result was not associated with viral load, which was similar in children and adults (mean [SD] cycle threshold [Ct] value, 28.58 [6.83] vs 24.14 [8.47]; P = .09). In addition, age and sex were not associated with seroconversion within children (median age, 4 [IQR, 2-14] years for both seropositive and seronegative groups; seroconversion by sex, 10 of 21 girls [47.6%] vs 10 of 33 boys [30.3%]) or adults (median ages, 37 years for seropositive and 40 years for seronegative adults [IQR, 34-39 years]; seroconversion by sex, 18 of 24 women [75.0%] vs 14 of 18 men [77.8%]) (P > .05 for all comparisons between seronegative and seropositive groups). Symptomatic adults had 3-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels than asymptomatic adults (median, 227.5 [IQR, 133.7-521.6] vs 75.3 [IQR, 36.9-113.6] IU/mL), whereas no differences were observed in children regardless of symptoms. Moreover, differences in cellular immune responses were observed in adults compared with children with seroconversion.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this cohort study suggest that among patients with mild COVID-19, children may be less likely to have seroconversion than adults despite similar viral loads. This finding has implications for future protection after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and for interpretation of serosurveys that involve children. Further research to understand why seroconversion and development of symptoms are potentially less likely in children after SARS-CoV-2 infection and to compare vaccine responses may be of clinical and scientific importance.

Educational status and COVID-19 related outcomes in India: hospital-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Association of educational status, as marker of socioeconomic status, with COVID-19 outcomes has not been well studied. We performed a hospital-based cross-sectional study to determine its association with outcomes.

METHODS

Successive patients of COVID-19 presenting at government hospital were recruited. Demographic and clinical details were obtained at admission, and in-hospital outcomes were assessed. Cohort was classified according to self-reported educational status into group 1: illiterate or ≤primary; group 2: higher secondary; and group 3: some college. To compare intergroup outcomes, we performed logistic regression.

RESULTS

4645 patients (men 3386, women 1259) with confirmed COVID-19 were recruited. Mean age was 46±18 years, most lived in large households and 30.5% had low educational status. Smoking or tobacco use was in 29.5%, comorbidities in 28.6% and low oxygen concentration (SpO₂ <95%) at admission in 30%. Average length of hospital stay was 6.8±3.7 days, supplemental oxygen was provided in 18.4%, high flow oxygen or non-invasive ventilation 7.1% and mechanical ventilation 3.6%, 340 patients (7.3%) died. Group 1 patients had more tobacco use, hypoxia at admission, lymphocytopaenia, and liver and kidney dysfunction. In group 1 versus groups 2 and 3, requirement of oxygen (21.6% vs 16.7% and 17.0%), non-invasive ventilation (8.0% vs 5.9% and 7.1%), invasive ventilation (4.6% vs 3.5% and 3.1%) and deaths (10.0% vs 6.8% and 5.5%) were significantly greater (p<0.05). OR for deaths were higher in group 1 (1.91, 95% CI 1.46 to 2.51) and group 2 (1.24, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.66) compared with group 3. Adjustment for demographic and comorbidities led to some attenuation in groups 1 (1.44, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.93) and 2 (1.38, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.85); this persisted with adjustments for clinical parameters and oxygen support in groups 1 (1.38, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.93) and 2 (1.52, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.11).

CONCLUSION

Low educational status patients with COVID-19 in India have significantly greater adverse in-hospital outcomes and mortality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

REF/2020/06/034036.

SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in reception and accommodation centres for asylum seekers during the first wave: systematic review of outbreak media reports in Germany

•

Sars-CoV-2 attack rate in asylum reception centers in Germany during the first wave was 13%.

•

Mass quarantine was imposed in 75% of outbreaks, but was associated with higher attack rate.

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Recommended standards of isolation of infected persons not always implemented.

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Protective measures for vulnerable individuals reported for minority of outbreaks.

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Implementation of adequate infection control measures is required despite vaccine availability.

•

Mass quarantine should be avoided.

Objectives

Despite concerns about the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) in refugee camps, data on attack rates and effectiveness of containment measures are lacking. We aimed to (1) quantify the attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 during outbreaks in reception and accommodation centres in Germany during the first pandemic wave, (2) assess differences in the attack rate based on containment measures, and (3) provide an overview of testing strategies, communication, conflicts, and protection measures for refugees with special needs.

Methods

Systematic web-based review of outbreak media reports (until June 2020) on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in reception centres for asylum seekers in Germany using the google search engine. Reports were screened for pre-defined inclusion criteria and complemented by snowball searches. Data on facility name, location, confirmed cases, containment measures, communication, protection strategies, and conflicts was extracted for each outbreak and reporting date. Evidence synthesis: meta-analysis and negative binomial regression.

Findings

We identified 337 media reports on 101 SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 99 reception and accommodation centres in Germany. The pooled SARS-CoV-2 attack rate was 13.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 9.8–16.7). Outbreak sites implementing mass quarantine (n = 76) showed higher rates (15.7; 95% CI: 11.6–20.2) compared to sites using conventional strategies (6.6; 95% CI: 3.1–11.2), yielding a rate ratio of 0.44 (95% CI: 0.27–0.72) adjusted for testing strategies, type and size of accommodation. Conflicts occurred in at least 11.8% of all outbreaks. Few sites reported specific measures to protect refugees with special needs.

Conclusion

Mass quarantine is associated with higher attack rates, and appears to be a counter-productive containment measure in overcrowded camps, but further research with individual-level data is required to rule out residual confounding. Despite available vaccines, reception centres and refugee camps should follow the available guidelines on COVID-19 response and refrain from mass quarantine if physical distancing cannot be guaranteed.

Country-level and regional COVID-19 burden and determinants across OECD member states and partner countries

Background

COVID-19 pandemic is tremendously impacted by socioeconomic and health determinants worldwide. This study aimed to determine factors associated with COVID-19 fatality among member states and partner countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Methods

An ecological study was conducted using COVID-19 data of 48 countries for the period between 31 December 2019–31 December 2021. The outcome variables were COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) and years of life lost to COVID-19 (YLLs). Countries’ sociodemographics and COVID-19-related data were extracted from OECD website, Our World in Data, John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and WHO.

Results

In the first year of the pandemic (December 2019–January 2021), highest CFR was observed in Mexico, 8.51%, followed by China, 5.17% and Bulgaria, 4.12%), and highest YLLs was observed in Mexico, 2,055 per 100,000. At regional level, highest CFR was observed in North & central America, 4.25 (3.71) %, followed by South America (2.5 (0.1) %); whereas highest YLLs was observed in South America region 1457.5 (274.8) per 100,000, followed by North & central America, 1207.3 (908.1) per 100,000. As of 31 December 2021, Mexico (7.52%) and Bulgaria (4.78%) had highest CFR; on the other hand, highest YLLs was observed in England, 26.5 per 1,000, followed by the United States, 25.9 per 1,000. At regional level, highest CFR (3.37(3.19) %) and YLLs (16.7 (13) per 1,000) were both observed in North & central America. Globally, the analysis of the 2-year cumulative data showed inverse correlation between CFR and nurse per 10,000 (R = −0.48; p < 0.05) and GDP per capita (R = −0.54; p < 0.001), whereas positive correlation was observed between YLLs and elderly population rate (R = 0.66; p < 0.05) and overweight/obese population rates (R = 0.55; p < 0.05).

Conclusion

This study provides insights on COVID-19 burden among OECD states and partner countries. GDP per capita, overweight/obesity and the rate of elderly population emerged as major social and health determinants of COVID-19 related burden and fatality. Findings suggest that a robust economy and interventions designed to promote healthy longevity and prevent weight gain in at-risk individuals might reduce COVID-19 burden and fatality among OECD states and partner countries.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1265/ehpm.22-00054.

Incidence Rates, Household Infection Risk, and Clinical Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adults in Utah and New York City, New York

IMPORTANCE

Data about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among children compared with adults are needed to inform COVID-19 risk communication and prevention strategies, including COVID-19 vaccination policies for children.

OBJECTIVE

To compare incidence rates and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults and children and estimated household infection risks within a prospective household cohort.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Households with at least 1 child aged 0 to 17 years in selected counties in Utah and New York City, New York, were eligible for enrollment. From September 2020 through April 2021, participants self-collected midturbinate nasal swabs for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction testing for SARS-CoV-2 and responded to symptom questionnaires each week. Participants also self-collected additional respiratory specimens with onset of COVID-19-like illness. For children unable to self-collect respiratory specimens, an adult caregiver collected the specimens.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was incident cases of any SARS-CoV-2 infection, including asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. Additional measures were the asymptomatic fraction of infection calculated by dividing incidence rates of asymptomatic infection by rates of any infection, clinical characteristics of infection, and household infection risks. Primary outcomes were compared by participant age group.

RESULTS

A total of 1236 participants in 310 households participated in surveillance, including 176 participants (14%) who were aged 0 to 4 years, 313 (25%) aged 5 to 11 years, 163 (13%) aged 12 to 17 years, and 584 (47%) 18 years or older. Overall incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection were 3.8 (95% CI, 2.4-5.9) and 7.7 (95% CI, 4.1-14.5) per 1000 person-weeks among the Utah and New York City cohorts, respectively. Site-adjusted incidence rates per 1000 person-weeks were similar by age group: 6.3 (95% CI, 3.6-11.0) for children 0 to 4 years, 4.4 (95% CI, 2.5-7.5) for children 5 to 11 years, 6.0 (95% CI, 3.0-11.7) for children 12 to 17 years, and 5.1 (95% CI, 3.3-7.8) for adults (≥18 years). The asymptomatic fractions of infection by age group were 52%, 50%, 45%, and 12% among individuals aged 0 to 4 years, 5 to 11 years, 12 to 17 years, and 18 years or older, respectively. Among 40 households with 1 or more SARS-CoV-2 infections, the mean risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among all enrolled household members was 52% (range, 11%-100%), with higher risks in New York City compared with Utah (80% [95% CI, 64%-91%] vs 44% [95% CI, 36%-53%]; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, children had similar incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, but a larger proportion of infections among children were asymptomatic.

A Year of Critical Care: The Changing Face of the ICU During COVID-19

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, admissions to hospital intensive care units (ICUs) surged, exerting unprecedented stress on ICU resources and operations. The novelty of the highly infectious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) required significant changes to the way critically ill patients were managed. Houston Methodist’s incident command center team navigated this health crisis by ramping up its bed capacity, streamlining treatment algorithms, and optimizing ICU staffing while ensuring adequate supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, and other ICU essentials. A tele–critical-care program and its infrastructure were deployed to meet the demands of the pandemic. Community hospitals played a vital role in creating a collaborative ecosystem for the treatment and referral of critically ill patients. Overall, the healthcare industry’s response to COVID-19 forced ICUs to become more efficient and dynamic, with improved patient safety and better resource utilization. This article provides an experiential account of Houston Methodist’s response to the pandemic and discusses the resulting impact on the function of ICUs.

Hip Fracture Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea

Background

The purpose of this study was to introduce a screening system for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), to evaluate the overall orthopedic management in hip fracture patients during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, and to compare the surgical results in hip fracture patients during the COVID-19 pandemic with those of the previous year.

Methods

Hip fracture patients who visited emergency rooms were screened at the screening clinics before admission. The medical management was carried out with the medical staff wearing surgical masks, meticulous hand hygiene observed, and a minimum distance of 2 m between patients maintained. The demographics, operative parameters, and surgical results of patients treated during the pandemic were compared with those from the previous year.

Results

From January 2020 to July 21, 2020, 119 patients with hip fractures (33 men and 86 women) were admitted to our institution for surgical treatment. Five patients showed symptoms of pneumonia, but no patient was positive for COVID-19. The mortality rate during the study period was 4.2%, and none of the patients died due to COVID-19. The interval between admission and surgery and the length of hospital stay were significantly shorter (p = 0.008, p = 0.002) and the proportion of spinal anesthesia was greater in hip fracture patients during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to those from the previous year (p = 0.011).

Conclusions

The COVID-19 screening system for hip fracture patients has proven to be effective in preventing intrahospital spread of the disease. Hip fracture surgery performed during the COVID-19 pandemic has shown comparable results without any COVID-19 infection and COVID-19-related mortality.

Neurobiology of COVID-19: how can the virus affect the brain?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has been declared a public health emergency of international interest, with confirmed cases in most countries. COVID-19 presents manifestations that can range from asymptomatic or mild infections up to severe manifestations that lead to hospitalization and death. A growing amount of evidence indicates that the virus may cause neuroinvasion. Postmortem brain study findings have included edema, hemorrhage, hydrocephalus, atrophy, encephalitis, infarcts, swollen axons, myelin loss, gliosis, neuronal satellitosis, hypoxic-ischemic damage, arteriolosclerosis, leptomeningeal inflammation, neuronal loss, and axon degeneration. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing dangerous effects on the mental health of the world population, some of which can be attributed to its social impact (social distancing, financial issues, and quarantine). There is also a concern that environmental stressors, enhanced by psychological factors, are contributing to the emergence of psychiatric outcomes during the pandemic. Although clinical studies and diagnosing SARS-CoV-2-related neurological disease can be challenging, they are necessary to help define the manifestations and burden of COVID-19 in neurological and psychiatric symptoms during and after the pandemic. This review aims to present the neurobiology of coronavirus and postmortem neuropathological hallmarks.

COVID-19 and Herpes Simplex Virus Infection: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Despite being variable and poorly characterized, the reported cutaneous manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are of increasing concern.

Methodology

This study aimed to determine the prevalence and possible association between COVID-19 and herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection. A nine-item questionnaire was sent to 120 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 patients with a response rate of 66.67%. This cross-sectional observational study included 80 patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 infection who did not require hospitalization or steroid therapy.

Results

One or more HSV infections were observed in 28 patients (35%) with COVID-19 infection, including 10 (35.7%) males and 18 (64.29%) females. Of the 28 patients, fever was reported in 17 (75%) during COVID-19. Most of the respondents (78%) described a single HSV reactivation, 14.29% had two attacks, and 7.14% experienced three attacks. Compared to previous non-COVID-19-related HSV reactivation, the COVID-19-related attacks were more severe in 12 (42.85%) patients, equally severe in five (17.85%) patients, and less severe in one (3.57%) patient. Interestingly, 10 (35.71%) patients developed an initial symptomatic HSV attack during COVID-19 infection.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated a possible association between COVID-19 infection and primary HSV infection or reactivation. COVID-19 direct neuronal effect in addition to COVID-19-related psychological stress, fever, and immunological dysregulation could play a potential role in HSV reactivation or primary infection during COVID-19.

Long COVID Syndrome and Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: An Unwelcome Combination

Since the report of the first case from China in late 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread very rapidly through the countries and regions leaving a trail of devastation in its path, everywhere. Although COVID-19 is primarily a respiratory illness mainly affecting the lungs; involvement of other organs including the cardiovascular system has been widely recognized. Whilst COVID-19 is an acute illness for a majority of cases; some of the debilitating virus-related symptoms can last for weeks and months, and are collectively termed as long COVID syndrome. Several published reports have described an association between acute COVID-19 illness and cardiac complications such as myocarditis and Takotsubo cardiomyopathy. However, little is known about any link between long COVID syndrome and the cardiac disease. We describe the case of a middle-aged woman with long COVID syndrome who presented with central chest pain and breathlessness. Her initial investigations showed an elevated cardiac troponin I and ischemic changes on 12 lead ECG. She was initially treated for non-ST elevation myocardial infarction. A subsequent coronary angiogram showed unobstructed coronary vessels and left ventricle (LV) gram demonstrated apical LV ballooning. She was managed conservatively and was discharged home following her clinical improvement. This case highlights the importance of holistic assessment of patients presenting with chest pain with the background of long COVID syndrome. It also outlines an emergent need to better understand pathophysiological mechanisms that underpin the development of cardiac complications in those with COVID-19 and long COVID syndrome.

COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide organ transplantation: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Preliminary data suggest that COVID-19 has reduced access to solid organ transplantation. However, the global consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation rates and the effect on waitlisted patients have not been reported. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation and investigate if the pandemic was associated with heterogeneous adaptation in terms of organ transplantation, with ensuing consequences for waitlisted patients.

METHODS

In this population-based, observational, before-and-after study, we collected and validated nationwide cohorts of consecutive kidney, liver, lung, and heart transplants from 22 countries. Data were collected from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2020, along with data from the same period in 2019. The analysis was done from the onset of the 100th cumulative COVID-19 case through to Dec 31, 2020. We assessed the effect of the pandemic on the worldwide organ transplantation rate and the disparity in transplant numbers within each country. We estimated the number of waitlisted patient life-years lost due to the negative effects of the pandemic. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04416256.

FINDINGS

Transplant activity in all countries studied showed an overall decrease during the pandemic. Kidney transplantation was the most affected, followed by lung, liver, and heart. We identified three organ transplant rate patterns, as follows: countries with a sharp decrease in transplantation rate with a low COVID-19-related death rate; countries with a moderate decrease in transplantation rate with a moderate COVID-19-related death rate; and countries with a slight decrease in transplantation rate despite a high COVID-19-related death rate. Temporal trends revealed a marked worldwide reduction in transplant activity during the first 3 months of the pandemic, with losses stabilising after June, 2020, but decreasing again from October to December, 2020. The overall reduction in transplants during the observation time period translated to 48 239 waitlisted patient life-years lost.

INTERPRETATION

We quantified the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on worldwide organ transplantation activity and revealed heterogeneous adaptation in terms of organ transplantation, both at national levels and within countries, with detrimental consequences for waitlisted patients. Understanding how different countries and health-care systems responded to COVID-19-related challenges could facilitate improved pandemic preparedness, notably, how to safely maintain transplant programmes, both with immediate and non-immediate life-saving potential, to prevent loss of patient life-years.

FUNDING

French national research agency (INSERM) ATIP Avenir and Fondation Bettencourt Schueller.

Convulsive Status Epilepticus in a Child With Controlled Epilepsy and Concurrent COVID-19 Infection: A Case Report and a Quick Review

The current unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has been another step toward learning about the unique interaction between viral infections and human nervous system. Very few scientific papers explored neuroinvasive and neurotropic potentials of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in children. We report a child with convulsive status epilepticus and confirmed COVID-19 infection. Brief review of current available literature was discussed.

Characterizing Changes in Screen Time During the COVID-19 Pandemic School Closures in Canada and Its Perceived Impact on Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increase in screen time for children and families. Traditionally, screen time has been associated with negative physical and mental health outcomes, and children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are at increased risk of these outcomes. The primary objectives of this study were to (1) characterize the change in screen time during COVID-19 school closures for children with ASD, and (2) examine the parent perceived impact of screen time on mental health and quality of life of children and their families. Canadian parents and caregivers of children 19 years of age and younger were eligible to participate in an anonymous, online survey study. This survey was available in English, consisted of 28 questions, took ~10-min to complete, and was available for 6 weeks (May 22 through July 6, 2020). The total sample consisted of 414 responses (ASD: n = 127, mean age = 11.7 ± 4.06 years; community sample: n = 287, mean age = 9.4 ± 4.26 years). Seventy-one respondents were missing responses to our primary question and removed from the analyses (final sample n = 344). Compared to the community sample, the ASD group had a significantly higher screen time use before and during the COVID-19 pandemic school closures [weekdays: difference = 1.14 (SE = 0.18), t = 6.56, p < 0.0001; weekends: difference = 1.41 (SE = 0.20), t = 6.93, p < 0.0001]. Mean total screen time during the pandemic was 6.9 h (95% CI 6.49, 7.21) on weekdays and 6.3 h (95% CI 5.91, 6.63) on weekends for the ASD group, and 5.6 h (95% CI 5.28, 5.92) on weekdays and 5.0 h (95% CI 4.70, 5.34) on weekends for the community sample. There was a significant increase in screen time during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to before the pandemic period in the ASD group [weekdays: mean difference = 3.8 h (95% CI 3.35-4.25), p < 0.0001; weekends: mean difference = 1.5 h (95% CI 1.17-1.92), p < 0.0001]. Gender was a significant predictor of parent perceived mental health and quality of life, with male gender associated with a higher likelihood of negative impact [quality of life (child/family) OR = 1.8 (95% CI 1.1-2.9), corrected p = 0.040; mental health OR = 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.1), corrected p = 0.0028]. Parents' most frequently endorsed emotions toward screen time were guilt, frustration, and worry. Results of this survey study revealed that children with ASD were less likely to benefit from screen time to cope with social isolation, and screen time resulted in significantly more lost time on social interactions than the community sample, which may exacerbate difficulties in social domains. Given the unprecedented circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic and the novel context of technology use, the findings of this study highlight the need for revision of screen time recommendations to reflect the current needs of children and families.

Public health-relevant consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented challenges to health systems worldwide, including the control of non-COVID-19 diseases. Malaria cases and deaths may increase due to the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic in malaria-endemic countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scoping review aims to summarize information on public health-relevant effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria situation in SSA.

METHODS

Review of publications and manuscripts on preprint servers, in peer-reviewed journals and in grey literature documents from 1 December, 2019 to 9 June, 2021. A structured search was conducted on different databases using predefined eligibility criteria for the selection of articles.

RESULTS

A total of 51 papers have been included in the analysis. Modelling papers have predicted a significant increase in malaria cases and malaria deaths in SSA due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many papers provided potential explanations for expected COVID-19 effects on the malaria burden; these ranged from relevant diagnostical and clinical aspects to reduced access to health care services, impaired availability of curative and preventive commodities and medications, and effects on malaria prevention campaigns. Compared to previous years, fewer country reports provided data on the actual number of malaria cases and deaths in 2020, with mixed results. While highly endemic countries reported evidence of decreased malaria cases in health facilities, low endemic countries reported overall higher numbers of malaria cases and deaths in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this review provide evidence for a significant but diverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria in SSA. There is the need to further investigate the public health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria burden. Protocol registered on Open Science Framework: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/STQ9D.

High throughput diagnostics and dynamic risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

BACKGROUND

The rise of new SARS-CoV-2 variants worldwide requires global molecular surveillance strategies to support public health control. Early detection and evaluation of their associated risk of spreading within the population are pivotal.

METHODS

Between April 2020 and February 2021, the UK Lighthouse Labs Network at Alderley Park tested more than eight million nose and throat swab samples for the presence of SARS-CoV-2, via PCR. The assay targeted three genomic regions of the virus: N, Orf1ab and S. Whole-genome next-generation sequencing was used to confirm positive PCR results. Positive results were mapped using the postal district origin of samples to allow real-time tracking of the spread of a new variant through the UK.

FINDINGS

In mid-November 2020, the assay identified an increasing number of S gene negative, N and Orf1ab positive samples. Whole-genome sequencing demonstrated that the loss of S gene detection was due to the appearance of a SARS-CoV-2 lineage (B.1.1.7) designated as Variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01. By the beginning of January 2021, the new SARS-CoV-2 VOC comprised 70% of daily positive samples tested at Alderley Park and ∼98% by the end of February 2021.

INTERPRETATION

The timeline view identified the rapid spread of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant across England during the first three weeks of December. Coupling high-throughput diagnostics and molecular surveillance was pivotal to the early detection of the spread of this variant. The availability of real-time tracking of an emerging variant is an important new tool to inform decision-making authorities for risk mitigation. In a respiratory pandemic, a tool for the timely response to the emergence and spread of a novel variant is vital, even more so when a variant is associated with the enhanced transmission, as has occurred with VOC 202012/01.

FUNDING

None.

Multi-dimensional and longitudinal systems profiling reveals predictive pattern of severe COVID-19

COVID-19 is a respiratory tract infection that can affect multiple organ systems. Predicting the severity and clinical outcome of individual patients is a major unmet clinical need that remains challenging due to intra- and inter-patient variability. Here, we longitudinally profiled and integrated more than 150 clinical, laboratory, and immunological parameters of 173 patients with mild to fatal COVID-19. Using systems biology, we detected progressive dysregulation of multiple parameters indicative of organ damage that correlated with disease severity, particularly affecting kidneys, hepatobiliary system, and immune landscape. By performing unsupervised clustering and trajectory analysis, we identified T and B cell depletion as early indicators of a complicated disease course. In addition, markers of hepatobiliary damage emerged as robust predictor of lethal outcome in critically ill patients. This allowed us to propose a novel clinical COVID-19 SeveriTy (COST) score that distinguishes complicated disease trajectories and predicts lethal outcome in critically ill patients.

"Anti-COVID-19" Medications, Supplements, and Mental Health Status in Indonesian Mothers with School-Age Children

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic affects all aspects of life and might cause stress for vulnerable groups such as mothers with school-age children, both housewives and working mothers. With the uncontrolled circulating information about medications, supplements, and herbs that are believed to treat COVID-19, self-medication and misused might escalate. Therefore, this study aims to determine the consumption of "anti-COVID" agents and the mental health of mothers with school-age children in Indonesia.

Methods

Online questionnaires regarding medications/supplements for COVID-19 prevention and treatment of "anti-COVID" consumption behavior and mental health using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales (DASS-21) were distributed among Indonesian mothers with school-age children. Data (n = 610) were analyzed; descriptive and association between sociodemographic factors, "anti-COVID" medications consumption, and mental health were presented.

Results

A quarter of the respondents were categorized as having mental disorders, with higher scores of DASS-21 was higher in the housewives' group. The incidence associated with age, family expenses, and marital status in the working mothers' group, and only with family expense in the housewives' group. Moreover, the result showed 80% of the respondents consumed "anti-COVID" medications or supplements to prevent COVID-19, with 75% did self-medication without consulting with a healthcare professional. Friends/family and social media were two primary sources of information regarding the "anti-COVID" products. In the housewives' group, their consumption behavior was influenced by education. Meanwhile in the working mothers' group, the consumption behavior was influenced by age, family income, and family expense. In addition, there was no association between the usage of medications/supplements with the respondents' mental health status.

Conclusion

This study showed the importance of controlling information and expanding the mother's knowledge to find the correct information to minimize the unwanted effect in the post COVID-19 pandemic. Increasing awareness of mental health issues in the community, especially in the vulnerable population such as mother with school-age children, is necessary to avoid detrimental effects that might occur in the future.

COVID-19 in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: a Review of the Current Literature

Purpose of review

The approach to ongoing organ transplantation and management of COVID-19 in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR) has evolved tremendously since the pandemic's beginning. We summarize the current literature surrounding the virology of SARS-CoV-2, epidemiology of COVID-19 in transplant recipients, review the clinical features and complications of COVID-19 in SOTR, and discuss the safety and efficacy of current therapies and candidate vaccines in this population.

Recent findings

Despite initial suspensions in organ transplantation during early 2020, routine donor testing and de-crowding of hospitals have allowed transplant activity to resume at pre-pandemic rates. COVID-19-associated mortality in SOTR is similar to that of the general population, and lower than that of patients with end-organ disease awaiting transplant. The optimal approach to immunosuppression in SOTR with COVID-19 is unknown and disease severity may influence management decisions. Many vaccines in development are likely to be safe for immunocompromised hosts, though post-marketing investigations will be required to determine the efficacy in the SOTR.

Summary

Though there are multiple unique considerations in the care of SOTR with COVID-19, immunosuppression does not appear to have a detrimental impact on overall outcome. Organ transplantation remains a lifesaving intervention and can be safely performed despite a global pandemic.

Spiritual care in critically ill patients during COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction

Spiritual care has a positive influence when patients are subjected to serious illnesses, and critically ill situations such as the case of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of nurses working at critical care units and emergency services in Spain concerning the spiritual care providing to patients and families during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A qualitative investigation was carried out using in-depth interviews with 19 ICU nursing professionals.

Findings

During the pandemic, nurses provided spiritual care for their patients. Although they believed that spirituality was important to help patients to cope with the disease, they do not had a consensual definition of spirituality. Work overload, insufficient time and lack of training were perceived as barriers for providing spiritual healthcare.

Discussion

These results support the role of spirituality in moments of crisis and should be considered by health professionals working in critical care settings.

Clinical outcome, risk assessment, and seasonal variation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients-Results from the CORONA Germany study

Background

After one year of the pandemic and hints of seasonal patterns, temporal variations of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 are widely unknown. Additionally, heterogeneous data regarding clinical indicators predicting disease severity has been published. However, there is a need for a risk stratification model integrating the effects on disease severity and mortality to support clinical decision-making.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter, observational, prospective, epidemiological cohort study at 45 hospitals in Germany. Until 1 January 2021, all hospitalized SARS CoV-2 positive patients were included. A comprehensive data set was collected in a cohort of seven hospitals. The primary objective was disease severity and prediction of mild, severe, and fatal cases. Ancillary analyses included a temporal analysis of all hospitalized COVID-19 patients for the entire year 2020.

Findings

A total of 4704 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized with a mortality rate of 19% (890/4704). Rates of mortality, need for ventilation, pneumonia, and respiratory insufficiency showed temporal variations, whereas age had a strong influence on the course of mortality. In cohort conducting analyses, prognostic factors for fatal/severe disease were: age (odds ratio (OR) 1.704, CI:[1.221–2.377]), respiratory rate (OR 1.688, CI:[1.222–2.333]), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR 1.312, CI:[1.015–1.695]), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR 2.132, CI:[1.533–2.965]), and creatinine values (OR 2.573, CI:[1.593–4.154].

Conclusions

Age, respiratory rate, LDH, CRP, and creatinine at baseline are associated with all cause death, and need for ventilation/ICU treatment in a nationwide series of COVID 19 hospitalized patients. Especially age plays an important prognostic role. In-hospital mortality showed temporal variation during the year 2020, influenced by age.

Trial registration number

NCT04659187.

ABO phenotype and SARS-CoV-2 infection: Is there any correlation?

COVID-19 is the currently evolving viral disease worldwide. It mainly targets the respiratory organs, tissues and causes illness. A plethora of studies has been performing to bring proper treatment and prevent people from the infection. Likewise, susceptibility to some infectious diseases has been associated with blood group phenotypes. The co-relationship of blood group with the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death has been examined in numerous studies. This review explained the described studies regarding the correlation of blood group and the other essential factors with COVID-19.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2-Specific IgG in Children 6 Months After Infection, Australia

The duration of the humoral immune response in children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is unknown. We detected specific IgG 6 months after infection in children who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms of coronavirus disease. These findings will inform vaccination strategies and other prevention measures.

Preliminary Evidence from a Cross-sectional Study on Epidemiology and Early Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Karnataka State of India

Introduction Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging infection and quickly disseminated around the world. This article studies the epidemiology and early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Karnataka, which would be useful for effective epidemic management and policy formulation.

Materials and Methods All COVID-19 cases reported in the state of Karnataka, India, till June 12, 2020, are included in the study. The epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Karnataka is studied through descriptive statistical analysis.

Results The findings illustrate a gender-, age-, and region-based disparity in the susceptibility and fatality. There appears to be a male preponderance in the susceptibility, but a female preponderance in fatality. It is also found that the adults are more susceptible to the infection, while the elderly have the risk of high fatality. Further, infected individuals in the region with urbanization have a higher risk of fatality than other regions. The study shows that the chances of recovery for females are lower than males, and further, the chances of recovery are positively related to the age of the infected person. The chances of recovery are higher if the infected individual is younger and they diminish if the individual is older. The study also explores that the chances of recovery are affected by the patient’s geographical location. It is also noted that individuals who returned from foreign travel have better chances of recovery than the locally transmitted individuals.

Conclusion Though the risk of susceptibility to COVID-19 infection is equal to all, the burden of getting infected and the burden of fatality is unequally distributed among different demographic categories. To manage the contagious spread of epidemic, to reduce fatality, and to increase the chances of recovery, targeted policy actions are suggested to benefit the vulnerable demographic categories.

COVID-19 Contact Tracing Conundrums: Insights From the Front Lines

COVID-19 contact tracing is an induction social network intervention in which the structure of the social network is leveraged to deploy proven COVID-19 interventions such as testing and social distancing. The Howard Brown Health organization has rapidly expanded to include COVID-19 testing, contact tracing, and linkage to resources since the first cases were identified in Chicago, Illinois. COVID-19 is penetrating the most vulnerable networks in the United States; existing inequities are widening as community resources and organizations have had to place services on hold.Here we address several questions that arise as organizations build capacity for contact tracing, including questions involving the potential impact of contact tracing, stakeholders who could be involved, the timing of contact tracing deployment, and the impact potential for digital technology.Contact tracing is critical at later stages of epidemic decline given the potential for isolated outbreaks as larger events, schools, stadiums, and festivals reopen. Local contact tracing efforts can have other indirect benefits with respect to limiting transmission, such as increasing testing rates and addressing structural barriers through provision of life-saving resources and access to crucial social support.

Online dental teaching practices during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional online survey from China

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China in December 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic hindered dental education, as school buildings were closed. Online dental teaching provided an alternative teaching tool for dental education. However, the efficiency of online dental teaching and student preferences for online dental teaching are unclear.

Aim

To investigate the satisfaction with online dental teaching practices among undergraduate dental students and standardized resident physician training students during the COVID-19 pandemic in China.

Methods

A total of 104 undergraduate dental students and 57 standardized resident physician training students from Zhejiang University participated in the study. A 12-item survey was conducted. This investigation included the teaching methods received, frequency of classes, degree of satisfaction, preferred teaching method, whether to participate in a course regarding COVID-19 prevention, and the effects of teaching. The percentages were then calculated and evaluated for each item.

Results

A total of 161 students (104 undergraduate dental students and 57 standardized resident physician training students) participated in this survey. All students had online dental classes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lecture-based learning (LBL), case-based learning (CBL), problem-based learning (PBL), team-based learning (TBL), and research-based learning (RBL) were selected as teaching methods. Students were more satisfied with LBL and CBL than PBL, RBL, and TBL. The majority of students had more than four classes per week. The most selected protective measures were hand washing, wearing masks, and wearing gloves. A total of 46.6% of students participated in courses on COVID-19. After training, the students consciously chose to wear face shields and protective clothing.

Conclusions

Dental students accepted online dental learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. Students preferred LBL and CBL and were satisfied with the classes. Courses on COVID-19 helped students understand how to prevent COVID-19 transmission in the dental clinic.

Anti-Inflammatory and Antiviral Osmotic Polymeric Film to Treat Covid-19 Early-Stage Infection

BACKGROUND

Covid-19 infection starts in the nasal cavity when viral S1 and RBD proteins bind to the host cell ACE2 receptors, the virus multiplies, causes cell lysis, and enters the circulation. This triggers a strong cytokine release and inflammation of the nasal mucosa. A multitarget approach of cleaning the nasal mucosa and suppressing chances of nasal and systemic inflammation should minimize severe respiratory consequences. Unfortunately, no such treatments are yet available.

METHODS

We describe the conception of an osmotic polymeric film using an in vitro nasal mucosa mimicking model, containing polymers to neutralize Covid-19 specific viral S1, RBD proteins and selected proinflammatory cytokines.

RESULTS

The filmogen barrier forms a stable and osmotic film on the nasal mucosa. Hypotonic liquid exudation from the nasal surface detaches and drains the inflammatory cytokines and other contaminants towards the film where selected polymers bind and neutralize SARS-CoV-2 spike S1 and RBD protein as well as Covid-19 disease-specific key pro-inflammatory IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10, IL-13, and GM-CSF cytokines.

CONCLUSION

Minimizing the nasal surface concentration of pro-inflammatory cytokines and viruses should help nasal mucosa repair and avoid immune stress. This nearly instant, simple, scientific, safe, and logical approach should help attenuate Covid-19 induced systemic inflammation at an early stage without being affected by viral S1 spike protein mutations.

Automated Travel History Extraction From Clinical Notes for Informing the Detection of Emergent Infectious Disease Events: Algorithm Development and Validation

Background

Patient travel history can be crucial in evaluating evolving infectious disease events. Such information can be challenging to acquire in electronic health records, as it is often available only in unstructured text.

Objective

This study aims to assess the feasibility of annotating and automatically extracting travel history mentions from unstructured clinical documents in the Department of Veterans Affairs across disparate health care facilities and among millions of patients. Information about travel exposure augments existing surveillance applications for increased preparedness in responding quickly to public health threats.

Methods

Clinical documents related to arboviral disease were annotated following selection using a semiautomated bootstrapping process. Using annotated instances as training data, models were developed to extract from unstructured clinical text any mention of affirmed travel locations outside of the continental United States. Automated text processing models were evaluated, involving machine learning and neural language models for extraction accuracy.

Results

Among 4584 annotated instances, 2659 (58%) contained an affirmed mention of travel history, while 347 (7.6%) were negated. Interannotator agreement resulted in a document-level Cohen kappa of 0.776. Automated text processing accuracy (F1 85.6, 95% CI 82.5-87.9) and computational burden were acceptable such that the system can provide a rapid screen for public health events.

Conclusions

Automated extraction of patient travel history from clinical documents is feasible for enhanced passive surveillance public health systems. Without such a system, it would usually be necessary to manually review charts to identify recent travel or lack of travel, use an electronic health record that enforces travel history documentation, or ignore this potential source of information altogether. The development of this tool was initially motivated by emergent arboviral diseases. More recently, this system was used in the early phases of response to COVID-19 in the United States, although its utility was limited to a relatively brief window due to the rapid domestic spread of the virus. Such systems may aid future efforts to prevent and contain the spread of infectious diseases.

Sulodexide in the Treatment of Patients with Early Stages of COVID-19: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may induce several vascular endothelial-dependent systemic complications, and sulodexide has pleiotropic actions on the vascular endothelium, which may prove beneficial. We aimed to assess the effect of sulodexide when used within 3 days of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clinical onset. We conducted a randomized placebo-controlled outpatient trial. To be included, patients must have been at high risk for severe clinical progression. Participants received sulodexide (oral 1,000 LRU/d) or placebo for 21 days. The primary endpoint was the need for hospital care. Also assessed were patients' need for supplemental oxygen as well as D-dimer and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, thromboembolic events, major bleeding, and mortality. A total of 243 patients were included in the per-protocol analysis from June 5 to August 30, 2020. Of these, 124 received sulodexide and 119 received a placebo. Only 17.7% of the patients in the sulodexide group required hospitalization, compared with 29.4% in the placebo group (p = 0.03). This benefit persisted in the intention-to-treat analysis (15% in sulodexide group vs. 24% with placebo [p = 0.04]). With sulodexide, fewer patients required supplemental oxygen (30 vs. 42% [p = 0.05]). After 2 weeks, fewer patients had D-dimer levels >500 ng/dL (22 vs. 47% [p < 0.01]), and patients also had lower mean CRP levels (12.5 vs. 17.8 mg/dL [p < 0.01]). There were no between-group differences in thromboembolic events, major bleeding, or mortality. Treatment of COVID-19 patients with sulodexide, when provided within 3 days of clinical onset, improved their clinical outcomes. Although the results should be confirmed, sulodexide could be valuable in an outpatient setting.

Obesity and COVID-19 in Latin America: A tragedy of two pandemics-Official document of the Latin American Federation of Obesity Societies

In May 2020, Latin America became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, a region already afflicted by social disparities, poor healthcare access, inadequate nutrition and a large prevalence of noncommunicable chronic diseases. Obesity and its comorbidities are increasingly prevalent in Latin America, with a more rapid growth in individuals with lower income, and currently a disease associated with COVID-19 severity, complications and death. In this document, the Latin American Association of Obesity Societies and collaborators present a review of the burden of two pandemics in Latin America, discuss possible mechanisms that explain their relationship with each other and provide public health and individual recommendations, as well as questions for future studies.

Leveraging Network Science for Social Distancing to Curb Pandemic Spread

COVID-19 has irreversibly upended the course of human life and compelled countries to invoke national emergencies and strict public guidelines. As the scientific community is in the early stages of rigorous clinical testing to come up with effective vaccination measures, the world is still heavily reliant on social distancing to curb the rapid spread and mortality rates. In this work, we present three optimization strategies to guide human mobility and restrict contact of susceptible and infective individuals. The proposed strategies rely on well-studied concepts of network science, such as clustering and homophily, as well as two different scenarios of the SEIRD epidemic model. We also propose a new metric, called contagion potential, to gauge the infectivity of individuals in a social setting. Our extensive simulation experiments show that the recommended mobility approaches slow down spread considerably when compared against several standard human mobility models. Finally, as a case study of the mobility strategies, we introduce a mobile application, MyCovid, that provides periodic location recommendations to the registered app users.

Elective orthopaedic cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: where are we now, and where are we heading?

AIMS

The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers.

METHODS

A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden.

RESULTS

By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335.

CONCLUSION

There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103-110.

Vitamin D Modulation of the Innate Immune Response to Paediatric Respiratory Pathogens Associated with Acute Lower Respiratory Infections

Vitamin D is an essential component of immune function and childhood deficiency is associated with an increased risk of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs). Globally, the leading childhood respiratory pathogens are Streptococcus pneumoniae, respiratory syncytial virus and the influenza virus. There is a growing body of evidence describing the innate immunomodulatory properties of vitamin D during challenge with respiratory pathogens, but recent systematic and unbiased synthesis of data is lacking, and future research directions are unclear. We therefore conducted a systematic PubMed literature search using the terms “vitamin D” and “Streptococcus pneumoniae” or “Respiratory Syncytial Virus” or “Influenza”. A priori inclusion criteria restricted the review to in vitro studies investigating the effect of vitamin D metabolites on human innate immune cells (primary, differentiated or immortalised) in response to stimulation with the specified respiratory pathogens. Eleven studies met our criteria. Despite some heterogeneity across pathogens and innate cell types, vitamin D modulated pathogen recognition receptor (PRRs: Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2), TLR4, TLR7 and nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2 (NOD2)) expression; increased antimicrobial peptide expression (LL-37, human neutrophil peptide (HNP) 1-3 and β-defensin); modulated autophagosome production reducing apoptosis; and modulated production of inflammatory cytokines (Interleukin (IL) -1β, tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-ɣ (IFN-ɣ), IL-12p70, IFN-β, Regulated on Activation, Normal T cell Expressed (RANTES), IL-10) and chemokines (IL-8 and C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10)). Differential modulation of PRRs and IL-1β was reported across immune cell types; however, this may be due to the experimental design. None of the studies specifically focused on immune responses in cells derived from children. In summary, vitamin D promotes a balanced immune response, potentially enhancing pathogen sensing and clearance and restricting pathogen induced inflammatory dysregulation. This is likely to be important in controlling both ALRIs and the immunopathology associated with poorer outcomes and progression to chronic lung diseases. Many unknowns remain and further investigation is required to clarify the nuances in vitamin D mediated immune responses by pathogen and immune cell type and to determine whether these in vitro findings translate into enhanced immunity and reduced ALRI in the paediatric clinical setting.

Mechanisms of recurrent outbreak of COVID-19: a model-based study

Recurrent outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in many countries around the world. We developed a twofold framework in this study, which is composed by one novel descriptive model to depict the recurrent global outbreaks of COVID-19 and one dynamic model to understand the intrinsic mechanisms of recurrent outbreaks. We used publicly available data of cumulative infected cases from 1 January 2020 to 2 January 2021 in 30 provinces in China and 43 other countries around the world for model validation and further analyses. These time series data could be well fitted by the new descriptive model. Through this quantitative approach, we discovered two main mechanisms that strongly correlate with the extent of the recurrent outbreak: the sudden increase in cases imported from overseas and the relaxation of local government epidemic prevention policies. The compartmental dynamical model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Dead and Recovered (SEIDR) Model) could reproduce the obvious recurrent outbreak of the epidemics and showed that both imported infected cases and the relaxation of government policies have a causal effect on the emergence of a new wave of outbreak, along with variations in the temperature index. Meanwhile, recurrent outbreaks affect consumer confidence and have a significant influence on GDP. These results support the necessity of policies such as travel bans, testing of people upon entry, and consistency of government prevention and control policies in avoiding future waves of epidemics and protecting economy.

Association between ABO blood groups and susceptibility to COVID-19: profile of age and gender in Iraqi patients

Background

A case-control study was performed to examine age, gender, and ABO blood groups in 1014 Iraqi hospitalized cases with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and 901 blood donors (control group). The infection was molecularly diagnosed by detecting coronavirus RNA in nasal swabs of patients.

Results

Mean age was significantly elevated in cases compared to controls (48.2 ± 13.8 vs. 29.9 ± 9.0 year; probability [p] < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated the predictive significance of age in COVID-19 evolution (Area under curve = 0.858; 95% CI: 0.841 - 0.875; p < 0.001). Males outnumbered females in cases (60.4 vs. 39.6%) and controls (56 vs. 44%). Stratification by age group (< 30, 30 - 39, 40 - 49 and ≥ 50 years) revealed that 48.3% of cases clustered in the age group ≥ 50 years. ABO blood group analysis showed that group A was the most common among cases, while group O was the most common among controls (35.5 and 36.7%, respectively). Blood groups A (35.5 vs. 32.7; corrected p [pc] = 0.021), A+AB (46.3 vs. 41.7%; pc = 0.021) and A+B+AB (68.0 vs. 63.3%; pc = 0.007) showed significantly elevated frequencies in cases compared to controls. Logistic regression analysis estimated odds ratios (ORs) of 1.53 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16 - 2.02), 1.48 (95% CI: 1.14 - 1.93) and 1.50 (95% CI: 1.17 - 1.82) for blood groups A, A+AB and A+B+AB, respectively. Blood group frequencies showed no significant differences between age groups of cases or controls. Regarding gender, male cases were marked with increased frequency of group A (39.9 vs. 28.9%) and decreased frequency of group O (25.9 vs. 41.0%) compared to female cases. Independent re-analysis of ABO blood groups in male and female cases demonstrated that group A was increased in male cases compared to male controls (39.9 vs. 33.1%; OR = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.24 - 2.21; pc = 0.006). On the contrary, no significant differences were found between females of cases and controls.

Conclusions

The study results indicated that blood group A may be associated with an increased risk of developing COVID-19, particularly in males.

The lower COVID-19 related mortality and incidence rates in Eastern European countries are associated with delayed start of community circulation

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this analysis was to assess the variations in COVID-19 related mortality in relation to the time differences in the commencement of virus circulation and containment measures in the European Region.

METHODS

The data for the current analysis (N = 50 countries) were retrieved from the John Hopkins University dataset on the 7th of May 2020, with countries as study units. A piecewise regression analysis was conducted with mortality and cumulative incidence rates introduced as dependent variables and time interval (days from the 22nd of January to the date when 100 first cases were reported) as the main predictor. The country average life expectancy at birth and outpatient contacts per person per year were statistically adjusted for in the regression model.

RESULTS

Mortality and incidence were strongly and inversely intercorrelated with days from January 22, respectively -0.83 (p<0.001) and -0.73 (p<0.001). Adjusting for average life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year, between days 33 to 50 from the 22nd of the January, the average mortality rate decreased by 30.1/million per day (95% CI: 22.7, 37.6, p<0.001). During interval 51 to 73 days, the change in mortality was no longer statistically significant but still showed a decreasing trend. A similar relationship with time interval was found for incidence. Life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year were not associated with mortality rate.

CONCLUSION

Countries in Europe that had the earliest COVID-19 circulation suffered the worst consequences in terms of health outcomes, specifically mortality. The drastic social isolation measures, quickly undertaken in response to those initial outbreaks appear effective, especially in Eastern European countries, where community circulation started after March 11th. The study demonstrates that efforts to delay the early spread of the virus may have saved an average 30 deaths daily per one million inhabitants.

Hajj and Umrah Mass Gatherings and COVID-19 Infection

Purpose of Review

We discuss the risk of COVID-19 in religious mass gathering events including Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages.

Recent Findings

The risk of transmission of respiratory viruses including COVID-19 is particularly high due to the overcrowding conditions at the Hajj and Umrah. The profile of the Hajj pilgrims who tend to be older and with multiple comorbidities corresponds to that of individuals at risk for severe COVID-19. In order to avoid a COVID-19 outbreak with potential spreading to many countries through returning pilgrims, Saudi Arabia suspended the Umrah, and access to the 2020 Hajj was very limited.

Summary

A clear relation between early suspension of religious mass gatherings and lower occurrence of COVID-19 transmission in countries that took such measures promptly was noticed. There are lessons to national and international health organizations for other mass gatherings in the context of the pandemic.

Obesity: A potential risk factor for infection and mortality in the current COVID-19 epidemic

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

COVID-19 is an ongoing global pandemic, affecting nearly 35 million people from 214 countries as at September 30, 2020 and emerging evidence suggests that obesity is a potential risk factor for communicable diseases, including viral infections. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between obesity prevalence of the total adult population and COVID-19 infection and mortality rates, in different countries.

METHODS

A total of 54 countries from six continents were selected. Country-specific obesity prevalence data were retrieved from the latest non-communicable diseases profiles released by the Non-communicable Diseases and Mental Health Cluster of World Health Organization, while the real time statistics from the Worldometer website were used to extract data on COVID-19 infections and mortality per million of the total population as of September 30, 2020.

RESULTS

Obesity prevalence data ranged from 2.0% (Vietnam) to 35.0% (Saudi Arabia). Among the selected countries, the highest number of COVID-19 cases per million was documented in Qatar (n = 44,789) while the lowest was reported from Vietnam (n = 11). Highest mortality per million population due to COVID-19 infections occurred in Peru (n = 981), in contrast with the smallest number reported in Mongolia (n = 0). A significant positive correlation (r = 0.46; p < 0.001) was observed between the total number of COVID-19 infections and the prevalence of obesity. COVID-19 mortality was also significantly correlated (r = 0.34; p < 0.05) with the prevalence of obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity prevalence in each country was significantly associated with both infection and mortality rate of COVID-19.