Contributions of diseases and injuries to widening life expectancy inequalities in England from 2001 to 2016: a population-based analysis of vital registration data

Psychiatric adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination: a population-based cohort study in Seoul, South Korea

Evidence has suggested an increased risk of psychiatric manifestations following viral infections including coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). However, psychiatric adverse events (AEs) after COVID-19 vaccination, which were documented in case reports and case series, remain unclear. This study is aimed to investigate the psychiatric AEs after COVID-19 vaccination from a large population-based cohort in Seoul, South Korea. We recruited 50% of the Seoul-resident population randomly selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (KNHIS) claims database on 1, January, 2021. The included participants (n = 2,027,353) from the Korean National Health Insurance Service claims database were divided into two groups according to COVID-19 vaccination. The cumulative incidences per 10,000 of psychiatric AEs were assessed on one week, two weeks, one month, and three months after COVID-19 vaccination. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Confidence interval (CIs) of psychiatric AEs were measured for the vaccinated population. The cumulative incidence of depression, anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, and somatoform disorders, sleep disorders, and sexual disorders at three months following COVID-19 vaccination were higher in the vaccination group than no vaccination group. However, schizophrenia and bipolar disorders showed lower cumulative incidence in the vaccination group than in the non-vaccinated group. Depression (HR [95% CI] = 1.683 [1.520-1.863]), anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, and somatoform disorders (HR [95% CI] = 1.439 [1.322-1.568]), and sleep disorders (HR [95% CI] = 1.934 [1.738-2.152]) showed increased risks after COVID-19 vaccination, whereas the risks of schizophrenia (HR [95% CI] = 0.231 [0.164-0.326]) and bipolar disorder (HR [95% CI] = 0.672 [0.470-0.962]). COVID-19 vaccination increased the risks of depression, anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, and somatoform disorders, and sleep disorders while reducing the risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Therefore, special cautions are necessary for administering additional COVID-19 vaccinations to populations vulnerable to psychiatric AEs.

Association between frailty and subsequent disability trajectories among older adults: a growth curve longitudinal analysis from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2004-19)

Frailty is associated with adverse health outcomes in ageing populations, yet its long-term effect on the development of disability is not well defined. The study examines to what extent frailty affects disability trajectories over 15 years in older adults aged 50+. Using seven waves of data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), the study estimates the effect of baseline frailty on subsequent disability trajectories by multilevel growth curve models. The sample included 94 360 individuals from 28 European countries. Baseline frailty was assessed at baseline, using the sex-specific SHARE-Frailty-Instrument (SHARE-FI), including weight loss, exhaustion, muscle weakness, slowness, and low physical activity. Disability outcomes were the sum score of limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) and Instrumental ADL (IADL). Analyses were stratified by sex. Over 15 years, baseline frailty score was positively associated with disability trajectories in men [βADL = 0.074, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.064; P = .083; βIADL = 0.094, 95% CI = 0.080; P = 0.107] and women (βADL = 0.097, 95% CI = 0.089; P = .105; βIADL = 0.108, 95% CI = 0.097; P = .118). Frail participants showed higher ADL and IADL disability levels, independent of baseline disability, compared with prefrail and robust participants across all age groups. Overall, participants displayed higher levels of IADL disability than ADL disability. Study findings indicate the importance of early frailty assessment using the SHARE-FI in individuals 50 and older as it provides valuable insight into future disability outcomes.

A qualitative exploration of barriers to efficient and effective structured medication reviews in primary care: Findings from the DynAIRx study

INTRODUCTION

Structured medication reviews (SMRs), introduced in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2020, aim to enhance shared decision-making in medication optimisation, particularly for patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Despite its potential, there is limited empirical evidence on the implementation of SMRs, and the challenges faced in the process. This study is part of a larger DynAIRx (Artificial Intelligence for dynamic prescribing optimisation and care integration in multimorbidity) project which aims to introduce Artificial Intelligence (AI) to SMRs and develop machine learning models and visualisation tools for patients with multimorbidity. Here, we explore how SMRs are currently undertaken and what barriers are experienced by those involved in them.

METHODS

Qualitative focus groups and semi-structured interviews took place between 2022-2023. Six focus groups were conducted with doctors, pharmacists and clinical pharmacologists (n = 21), and three patient focus groups with patients with multimorbidity (n = 13). Five semi-structured interviews were held with 2 pharmacists, 1 trainee doctor, 1 policy-maker and 1 psychiatrist. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Two key themes limiting the effectiveness of SMRs in clinical practice were identified: 'Medication Reviews in Practice' and 'Medication-related Challenges'. Participants noted limitations to the efficient and effectiveness of SMRs in practice including the scarcity of digital tools for identifying and prioritising patients for SMRs; organisational and patient-related challenges in inviting patients for SMRs and ensuring they attend; the time-intensive nature of SMRs, the need for multiple appointments and shared decision-making; the impact of the healthcare context on SMR delivery; poor communication and data sharing issues between primary and secondary care; difficulties in managing mental health medications and specific challenges associated with anticholinergic medication.

CONCLUSION

SMRs are complex, time consuming and medication optimisation may require multiple follow-up appointments to enable a comprehensive review. There is a need for a prescribing support system to identify, prioritise and reduce the time needed to understand the patient journey when dealing with large volumes of disparate clinical information in electronic health records. However, monitoring the effects of medication optimisation changes with a feedback loop can be challenging to establish and maintain using current electronic health record systems.

Consumption of Olive Oil and Diet Quality and Risk of Dementia-Related Death

Importance

Age-standardized dementia mortality rates are on the rise. Whether long-term consumption of olive oil and diet quality are associated with dementia-related death is unknown.

Objective

To examine the association of olive oil intake with the subsequent risk of dementia-related death and assess the joint association with diet quality and substitution for other fats.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study examined data from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 1990-2018) and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS; 1990-2018). The population included women from the NHS and men from the HPFS who were free of cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to July 2023.

Exposures

Olive oil intake was assessed every 4 years using a food frequency questionnaire and categorized as (1) never or less than once per month, (2) greater than 0 to less than or equal to 4.5 g/d, (3) greater than 4.5 g/d to less than or equal to 7 g/d, and (4) greater than 7 g/d. Diet quality was based on the Alternative Healthy Eating Index and Mediterranean Diet score.

Main Outcome and Measure

Dementia death was ascertained from death records. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs adjusted for confounders including genetic, sociodemographic, and lifestyle factors.

Results

Of 92 383 participants, 60 582 (65.6%) were women and the mean (SD) age was 56.4 (8.0) years. During 28 years of follow-up (2 183 095 person-years), 4751 dementia-related deaths occurred. Individuals who were homozygous for the apolipoprotein ε4 (APOE ε4) allele were 5 to 9 times more likely to die with dementia. Consuming at least 7 g/d of olive oil was associated with a 28% lower risk of dementia-related death (adjusted pooled HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.64-0.81]) compared with never or rarely consuming olive oil (P for trend < .001); results were consistent after further adjustment for APOE ε4. No interaction by diet quality scores was found. In modeled substitution analyses, replacing 5 g/d of margarine and mayonnaise with the equivalent amount of olive oil was associated with an 8% (95% CI, 4%-12%) to 14% (95% CI, 7%-20%) lower risk of dementia mortality. Substitutions for other vegetable oils or butter were not significant.

Conclusions and Relevance

In US adults, higher olive oil intake was associated with a lower risk of dementia-related mortality, irrespective of diet quality. Beyond heart health, the findings extend the current dietary recommendations of choosing olive oil and other vegetable oils for cognitive-related health.

Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study

BACKGROUND

There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population.

METHODS

We used primary care data for adults in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database between 2004 and 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), to model time individuals spent in four health states (healthy, one chronic condition, basic multimorbidity [two or more chronic conditions], and complex multimorbidity [three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more body systems]) by sex, age, IMD quintile, birth cohort, and region. We applied these transition times in a stochastic dynamic continuous-time microsimulation model to Office for National Statistics population estimates for adults aged 30-90 years. We calculated projected prevalence and cumulative incident cases from 2019 to 2049 by IMD quintile, age group (younger than 65 years vs 65 years and older), and years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years.

FINDINGS

Under the assumption that all chronic conditions were lifelong, and that once diagnosed there was no recovery, we projected prevalence of multimorbidity (basic or complex) increases by 34% from 53·8% in 2019 to 71·9% (95% uncertainty interval 71·8-72·0) in 2049. This rise equates to an 84% increase in the number of people with multimorbidity: from 19·2 million in 2019 to 35·3 million in 2049 (35·3 million to 35·4 million). This projected increase is greatest in the most deprived quintile, with an excess 1·07 million (1·04 million to 1·10 million) cumulative incident basic multimorbidity cases and 0·70 million (0·67 million to 0·74 million) complex multimorbidity cases over and above the projected cases for the least deprived quintile, largely driven by inequalities in those younger than 65 years. The median expected number of years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years in 2019 is 15·12 years (14·62-16·01) in the least deprived IMD quintile and 12·15 years (11·61-12·60) in the most deprived IMD quintile.

INTERPRETATION

The number of people living with multimorbidity will probably increase substantially in the next 30 years, a continuation of past observed increases partly driven by changing population size and age structure. Inequalities in the multimorbidity burden increase at each stage of disease accumulation, and are projected to widen, particularly among the working-age population. Substantial action is needed now to address population health and to prepare health-care and social-care systems for coming decades.

FUNDING

University of Liverpool and National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research.

Enabling the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner

BACKGROUND

Studying long-term trends in educational inequalities in health is important for monitoring and policy evaluation. Data issues regarding the allocation of people to educational groups hamper the study and international comparison of educational inequalities in mortality. For the UK, this has been acknowledged, but no satisfactory solution has been proposed.

OBJECTIVE

To enable the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales (E&W) in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner, we propose and implement an approach to deal with the data issues regarding mortality data by educational level.

METHODS

We employed 10-year follow-ups of individuals aged 20+ from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS), which include education information from each decennial census (1971-2011) linked to individual death records, for a 1% representative sample of the E&W population. We assigned the individual cohort data to single ages and calendar years, and subsequently obtained aggregate all-cause mortality data by education, sex, age (30+), and year (1972-2017). Our data adjustment approach optimised the available education information at the individual level, and adjusts-at the aggregate level-for trend discontinuities related to the identified data issues, and for differences with country-level mortality data for the total population.

RESULTS

The approach resulted in (1) a time-consistent and internationally comparable categorisation of educational attainment into the low, middle, and high educated; (2) the adjustment of identified data-quality related discontinuities in the trends over time in the share of personyears and deaths by educational level, and in the crude and the age-standardised death rate by and across educational levels; (3) complete mortality data by education for ONS-LS members aged 30+ in 1972-2017 which aligns with country-level mortality data for the total population; and (4) the estimation of inequality measures using established methods. For those aged 30+ , both absolute and relative educational inequalities in mortality first increased and subsequently decreased.

CONCLUSION

We obtained additional insights into long-term trends in educational inequalities in mortality in E&W, and illustrated the potential effects of different data issues. We recommend the use of (part of) the proposed approach in other contexts.

Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study

BACKGROUND

The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males.

CONCLUSIONS

We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Reducing health inequalities through general practice: a realist review and action framework

Background

Socio-economic inequalities in health have been in the public agenda for decades. General practice has an influential role to play in mitigating the impact of inequalities especially regarding chronic conditions. At the moment, general practice is dealing with serious challenges in relation to workforce shortages, increasing workload and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is important to identify effective ways so that general practice can play its role in reducing health inequalities.

Objectives

We explored what types of interventions and aspects of routine care in general practice decrease or increase inequalities in health and care-related outcomes. We focused on cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We explored for whom these interventions and aspects of care work best, why, and in what circumstances. Our main objective was to synthesise this evidence into specific guidance for healthcare professionals and decision-makers about how best to achieve equitable general practice.

Design

Realist review.

Main outcome measures

Clinical or care-related outcomes by socio-economic group, or other PROGRESS-Plus criteria.

Review methods

Realist review based on Pawson's five steps: (1) locating existing theories, (2) searching for evidence, (3) selecting articles, (4) extracting and organising data and (5) synthesising the evidence.

Results

Three hundred and twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria and 159 of them were selected for the evidence synthesis. Evidence about the impact of general practice interventions on health inequalities is limited. To reduce health inequalities, general practice needs to be: • connected so that interventions are linked and coordinated across the sector; • intersectional to account for the fact that people's experience is affected by many of their characteristics; • flexible to meet patients' different needs and preferences; • inclusive so that it does not exclude people because of who they are; • community-centred so that people who receive care engage with its design and delivery. These qualities should inform action across four domains: structures like funding and workforce distribution, organisational culture, everyday regulated procedures involved in care delivery, interpersonal and community relationships.

Limitations

The reviewed evidence offers limited detail about the ways and the extent to which specific interventions increase or decrease inequalities in general practice. Therefore, we focused on the underpinning principles that were common across interventions to produce higher-level, transferrable conclusions about ways to achieve equitable care.

Conclusions

Inequalities in general practice result from complex processes across four different domains that include structures, ideas, regulated everyday procedures, and relationships among individuals and communities. To achieve equity, general practice needs to be connected, intersectional, flexible, inclusive and community-centred.

Future work

Future work should focus on how these five essential qualities can be better used to shape the organisational development of future general practice.

Study registration

This trial is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020217871.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR130694) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 7. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Analysis of inequalities in personal exposure to PM2.5: A modelling study for the Greater London school-aged population

Exposure to air pollution can lead to negative health impacts, with children highly susceptible due to their immature immune and lung systems. Childhood exposure may vary by socio-economic status (SES) due to differences in both outdoor and indoor air pollution levels, the latter of which depends on, for example, building quality, overcrowding and occupant behaviours; however, exposure estimates typically rely on the outdoor component only. Quantifying population exposure across SES requires accounting for variations in time-activity patterns, outdoor air pollution concentrations, and concentrations in indoor microenvironments that account for pollution-generating occupant behaviours and building characteristics. Here, we present a model that estimates personal exposure to PM2.5 for ~1.3 million children aged 4-16 years old in the Greater London region from different income groups. The model combines 1) A national time-activity database, which gives the percentage of each group in different residential and non-residential microenvironments throughout a typical day; 2) Distributions of modelled outdoor PM2.5 concentrations; 3) Detailed estimates of domestic indoor concentrations for different housing and occupant typologies from the building physics model, EnergyPlus, and; 4) Non-domestic concentrations derived from a mass-balance approach. The results show differences in personal exposure across socio-economic groups for children, where the median daily exposure across all scenarios (winter/summer and weekends/weekdays) is 17.2 μg/m3 (95%CIs: 12.1 μg/m3-41.2 μg/m3) for children from households in the lowest income quintile versus 14.5 μg/m3 (95%CIs: 11.5 μg/m3 - 27.9 μg/m3) for those in the highest income quintile. Though those from lower-income homes generally fare worse, approximately 57 % of London's school-aged population across all income groups, equivalent to 761,976 children, have a median daily exposure which exceeds guideline 24-h limits set by the World Health Organisation. The findings suggest residential indoor sources of PM2.5 are a large contributor to personal exposure for school children in London. Interventions to reduce indoor exposure in the home (for example, via the maintenance of kitchen extract ventilation and transition to cleaner cooking fuels) should therefore be prioritised along with the continued mitigation of outdoor sources in Greater London.

Health Resource Utilisation and Disparities: an Ecological Study of Admission Patterns Across Ethnicity in England Between 2017 and 2020

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted adverse outcomes in Asian, Black, and ethnic minority groups. More research is required to explore underlying ethnic health inequalities. In this study, we aim to examine pre-COVID ethnic inequalities more generally through healthcare utilisation to contextualise underlying inequalities that were present before the pandemic.

DESIGN

This was an ecological study exploring all admissions to NHS hospitals in England from 2017 to 2020.

METHODS

The primary outcomes were admission rates within ethnic groups. Secondary outcomes included age-specific and age-standardised admission rates. Sub-analysis of admission rates across an index of multiple deprivation (IMD) deciles was also performed to contextualise the impact of socioeconomic differences amongst ethnic categories. Results were presented as a relative ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Age-standardised admission rates were higher in Asian (RR 1.40 [1.38-1.41] in 2019) and Black (RR 1.37 [1.37-1.38]) and lower in Mixed groups (RR 0.91 [0.90-0.91]) relative to White. There was significant missingness or misassignment of ethnicity in NHS admissions: with 11.7% of admissions having an unknown/not-stated ethnicity assignment and 'other' ethnicity being significantly over-represented. Admission rates did not mirror the degree of deprivation across all ethnic categories.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows Black and Asian ethnic groups have higher admission rates compared to White across all age groups and when standardised for age. There is evidence of incomplete and misidentification of ethnicity assignment in NHS admission records, which may introduce bias to work on these datasets. Differences in admission rates across individual ethnic categories cannot solely be explained by socioeconomic status. Further work is needed to identify ethnicity-specific factors of these inequalities to allow targeted interventions at the local level.

Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales

BACKGROUND

The UK Government's 'welfare reform' programme included reductions to social security payments, phased in over the financial years 2011/2012-2015/2016. Previous studies of social security cuts and health outcomes have been restricted to analysing single UK countries or single payment types (eg, housing benefit). We examined the association between all social security cuts fully implemented by 2016 and life expectancy, for local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.

METHODS

Our unit of analysis was 201 upper tier local authorities (unitary authorities and county councils: 147 in England, 32 in Scotland, 22 in Wales). Our exposure was estimated social security loss per head of the working age population per year for each local authority, calculated against the baseline in 2010/2011. The primary outcome was annual life expectancy at birth between the calendar years 2012 and 2016 (year lagged following exposure). We used a panel regression approach with fixed effects.

RESULTS

Social security cuts implemented by 2016 were estimated to be £475 per head of the working age population in England, £390 in Scotland and £490 in Wales since 2010/2011. During the study period, there was either no improvement or only marginal increases in national life expectancy. Social security loss and life expectancy were significantly associated: an estimated £100 decrease in social security per head of working age population was associated with a 1-month reduction in life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Social security cuts, at the UK local authority level, were associated with lower life expectancy. Further research should examine causality.

Contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy inequalities in Wales: a decomposition by age and by cause between 2002 and 2020

OBJECTIVES

To explore the contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy inequalities in Wales during 2002-2020.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Wales, 2002-20, including early data from the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We used routine statistics for 2002-2020 on population and deaths in Wales stratified by age, sex, deprivation quintile and cause of death. We estimated the contribution of avoidable causes of death and specific age-categories using the Arriaga decomposition method to highlight priorities for action.

RESULTS

Life expectancy inequalities rose 2002-20 amongst both sexes, driven by serial decreases in life expectancy amongst the most deprived quintiles. The contributions of amenable and preventable mortality to life expectancy inequalities changed relatively little between 2002 and 2020, with larger rises in non-avoidable causes. Key avoidable mortality conditions driving the life expectancy gap in the most recent period of 2018-2020 for females were circulatory disease, cancers, respiratory disease and alcohol- and drug-related deaths, and also injuries for males.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy inequalities widened during 2002-20, driven by deteriorating life expectancy in the most deprived quintiles. Sustained investment in prevention post-COVID-19 is needed to address growing health inequity in Wales; there remains a role for the National Health Service in ensuring equitable healthcare access to alongside wider policies that promote equity.

Contributions of the life expectancy gap reduction between urban and rural areas to the increase in overall life expectancy in South Korea from 2000 to 2019

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to quantify the contribution of narrowing the life expectancy gap between urban and rural areas to the overall life expectancy at birth in Korea and examine the age and death cause-specific contribution to changes in the life expectancy gap between urban and rural areas.

METHODS

We used the registration population and death statistics from Statistics Korea from 2000 to 2019. Assuming two hypothetical scenarios, namely, the same age-specific mortality change rate in urban and rural areas and a 20% faster decline than the observed decline rate in rural areas, we compared the increase in life expectancy with the actual increase. Changes in the life expectancy gap between urban and rural areas were decomposed into age- and cause-specific contributions.

RESULTS

Rural disadvantages of life expectancy were evident. However, life expectancies in rural areas increased more rapidly than in urban areas. Life expectancy would have increased 0.3-0.5 less if the decline rate of age-specific mortality in small-to-middle urban and rural areas were the same as that of large urban areas. Life expectancy would have increased 0.7-0.9 years further if the decline rate of age-specific mortality in small-to-middle urban and rural areas had been 20% higher. The age groups 15-39 and 40-64, and chronic diseases, such as neoplasms and diseases of the digestive system, and external causes significantly contributed to narrowing the life expectancy gap between urban and rural areas.

CONCLUSION

Pro-health equity interventions would be a good strategy to reduce the life expectancy gap and increase overall life expectancy, particularly in societies where life expectancies have already increased.

Reversals in past long-term trends in educational inequalities in life expectancy for selected European countries

BACKGROUND

Across Europe, socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are large and persistent. To better understand the drivers of past trends in socioeconomic mortality inequalities, we identified phases and potential reversals in long-term trends in educational inequalities in remaining life expectancy at age 30 (e30), and assessed the contributions of mortality changes among the low-educated and the high-educated at different ages.

METHODS

We used individually linked annual mortality data by educational level (low, middle and high), sex and single age (30+) from 1971/1972 onwards for England and Wales, Finland and Italy (Turin). We applied segmented regression to trends in educational inequalities in e30 (e30 high-educated minus e30 low-educated) and employed a novel demographic decomposition technique.

RESULTS

We identified several phases and breakpoints in the trends in educational inequalities in e30. The long-term increases (Finnish men, 1982-2008; Finnish women, 1985-2017; and Italian men, 1976-1999) were driven by faster mortality declines among the high-educated aged 65-84, and by mortality increases among the low-educated aged 30-59. The long-term decreases (British men, 1976-2008, and Italian women, 1972-2003) were driven by faster mortality improvements among the low-educated than among the high-educated at age 65+. The recent stagnation of increasing inequality (Italian men, 1999) and reversals from increasing to decreasing inequality (Finnish men, 2008) and from decreasing to increasing inequality (British men, 2008) were driven by mortality trend changes among the low-educated aged 30-54.

CONCLUSION

Educational inequalities are plastic. Mortality improvements among the low-educated at young ages are imperative for achieving long-term decreases in educational inequalities in e30.

Intermittent Fasting Protects Against Age-Induced Rat Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia via Preservation of Prostatic Histomorphology, Modification of Oxidative Stress, and Beclin-1/P62 Pathway

Intermittent fasting (IF) has several beneficial effects on most age-related degenerative changes in the body. Here we aimed to investigate the impact of IF on the biochemical and morphological abnormalities associated with normal aging in rat prostate. Thirty male albino rats were used and divided into three equal groups: adult group, rats aged 3 months; aged group, rats aged 15 months; and IF-aged group, rats aged 15 months maintained on intermittent fasting. After 3 months, prostates were excised and processed for biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical study. Aging resulted in prostatic histological changes that resemble those of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) with increased malondialdehyde (MDA) level, decreased glutathione (GSH) level, reduction of autophagy, and increased proliferation. Intermittent fasting ameliorated these described age-related prostatic changes. It could be concluded that IF could prevent age-induced BPH. This occurs via its anti-inflammatory and anti-proliferative effects, suppression of oxidative stress, and by improving autophagy via Beclin-1/P62 modulation. These mechanisms underlie the IF-mediated protection against age-related BPH. Because of IF safety and easy availability over BPH medications, it might be promising for managing BPH after further clinical studies.

Geographical variations in long term colorectal cancer outcomes in England: a contemporary population analysis revealing the north-south divide in colorectal cancer survival

BACKGROUND

Regional variations in healthcare outcomes in England have been historically reported. This study analyses the variations in long term colorectal cancer survival across different regions in England.

METHODS

Relative survival analysis of population data obtained from all cancer registries in England between 2010 and 2014.

RESULTS

Totally, 167,501 patients were studied. Regions in the southern England had better outcomes with Southwest and Oxford registries having 63.5 and 62.7% 5 year relative survival. In contrast, Trent and Northwest cancer registries had 58.1% relative survival (p < 0.01). The regions in the north fared below the national average. The survival outcomes reflected socio-economic deprivation status, the best performing regions in the south having low levels of deprivation (5.3 and 6.5% having maximum deprivation in Southwest and Oxford, respectively). The regions with worst long term cancer outcomes had high levels of deprivation with 25% and 17% having high levels of deprivation in Northwest and Trent regions.

CONCLUSION

There are significant variations in long term colorectal cancer survival between different regions in England, southern England had better relative survival when compared with the northern regions. Disparities in socio-economic depravation status in different regions may be associated with worse colorectal cancer outcomes.

When experts disagree: interviews with public health experts on health outcomes in the UK 2010-2020

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the views of public health experts on adverse trends in life expectancy across England and Wales over the past decade, causal factors, possible solutions, and their opinions about how the prepandemic situation influenced the UK's COVID-19 response.

STUDY DESIGN

Semistructured, in-depth interviews.

METHODS

Nineteen public health experts were identified by purposeful sampling and invited to take part via e-mail. Sixty-three percent responded and participated (n = 12), six females and six males. Interviews took place via Microsoft Teams between November 2021 and January 2022. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using thematic content analysis.

RESULTS

There was no consensus on the significance of the stalling and, at some ages, reversal of previous improvements in life expectancy between 2010 and 2020. Explanations offered included data misinterpretation, widening health inequalities, and disinvestment in public services, as well as some disease-specific causes. Those accepting that the decline was concerning linked it to social factors and suggested solutions based on increased investment and implementing existing evidence on how to reduce health inequalities. These interviewees also pointed to the same factors playing a role in the UK's poor COVID-19 response, highlighting the need to understand and address these underlying issues as part of pandemic preparedness.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no consensus among a group of influential public health experts in the UK on the scale, nature, and explanations of recent trends in life expectancy. A majority called for implementation of existing evidence on reducing inequalities, especially in the wake of COVID-19. However, without agreement on what the problem is, action is likely to remain elusive.

Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women?

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates across the UK stopped improving in the early 2010s, largely attributable to UK Government's 'austerity' policies. Such policies are thought to disproportionately affect women in terms of greater financial impact and loss of services. The aim here was to investigate whether the mortality impact of austerity-in terms of when rates changed and the scale of excess deaths-has also been worse for women.

METHODS

All-cause mortality data by sex, age, Great Britain (GB) nation and deprivation quintile were obtained from national agencies. Trends in age-standardised mortality rates were calculated, and segmented regression analyses used to identify break points between 1981 and 2019. Excess deaths were calculated for 2012-2019 based on comparison of observed deaths with numbers predicted by the linear trend for 1981-2011.

RESULTS

Changes in trends were observed for both men and women, especially for those living in the 20% most deprived areas. In those areas, mortality increased between 2010/2012 and 2017/2019 among women but not men. Break points in trends occurred at similar time points. Approximately 335 000 more deaths occurred between 2012 and 2019 than was expected based on previous trends, with the excess greater among men.

CONCLUSIONS

It remains unclear whether there are sex differences in UK austerity-related health effects. Nonetheless, this study provides further evidence of adverse trends in the UK and the associated scale of excess deaths. There is a clear need for such policies to be reversed, and for policies to be implemented to protect the most vulnerable in society.

Trends in healthy life expectancy in the age of austerity

BACKGROUND

Worrying changes in life expectancy trends have been observed recently in the UK, largely attributed to austerity policies introduced over the last decade. To incorporate changes to quality, rather than just length of, life, our aim was to describe trends in healthy life expectancy (HLE) for the relevant period.

METHODS

In the absence of available long-term trends, we calculated new estimates of HLE for Scotland for the period 1995-2019, using standard HLE methodologies based on mortality and national survey data, and stratified by sex and socioeconomic deprivation.

RESULTS

Overall, male and female HLE increased markedly between 1995 and 2009, but then decreased by approximately 2 years between 2011 and 2019. A decline was observed for the most and least deprived groups, but this was larger for those living in the 20% most deprived areas, where the decrease was 3.5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are further evidence of changing levels of pre-pandemic population health in the UK. An increasing body of UK and international evidence have attributed these changes to UK Government austerity policies. There is an urgent need, therefore, to reverse cuts to social security and protect the income and health of the poorest across all of the UK.

What can the UK learn from the impact of migrant populations on national life expectancy?

Improvements in life expectancy at birth in the UK had stalled prior to 2020 and have fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The stagnation took place at a time of relatively high net migration, yet we know that migrants to Australia, the USA and some Nordic countries have positively impacted national life expectancy trends, outperforming native-born populations in terms of life expectancy. It is important to ascertain whether migrants have contributed positively to life expectancy in the UK, concealing worsening trends in the UK-born population, or whether relying on national life expectancy calculations alone may have masked excess mortality in migrant populations. We need a better understanding of the role and contribution of migrant populations to national life expectancy trends in the UK.

An investigation of cancer survival inequalities associated with individual-level socio-economic status, area-level deprivation, and contextual effects, in a cancer patient cohort in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

People living in more deprived areas of high-income countries have lower cancer survival than those in less deprived areas. However, associations between individual-level socio-economic circumstances and cancer survival are relatively poorly understood. Moreover, few studies have addressed contextual effects, where associations between individual-level socio-economic status and cancer survival vary depending on area-based deprivation.

METHODS

Using 9276 individual-level observations from a longitudinal study in England and Wales, we examined the association with cancer survival of area-level deprivation and individual-level occupation, education, and income, for colorectal, prostate and breast cancer patients aged 20-99 at diagnosis. With flexible parametric excess hazard models, we estimated excess mortality across individual-level and area-level socio-economic variables and investigated contextual effects.

RESULTS

For colorectal cancers, we found evidence of an association between education and cancer survival in men with Excess Hazard Ratio (EHR) = 0.80, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.60;1.08 comparing "degree-level qualification and higher" to "no qualification" and EHR = 0.74 [0.56;0.97] comparing "apprenticeships and vocational qualification" to "no qualification", adjusted on occupation and income; and between occupation and cancer survival for women with EHR = 0.77 [0.54;1.10] comparing "managerial/professional occupations" to "manual/technical," and EHR = 0.81 [0.63;1.06] comparing "intermediate" to "manual/technical", adjusted on education and income. For breast cancer in women, we found evidence of an association with income (EHR = 0.52 [0.29;0.95] for the highest income quintile compared to the lowest, adjusted on education and occupation), while for prostate cancer, all three individual-level socio-economic variables were associated to some extent with cancer survival. We found contextual effects of area-level deprivation on survival inequalities between occupation types for breast and prostate cancers, suggesting wider individual-level inequalities in more deprived areas compared to least deprived areas. Individual-level income inequalities for breast cancer were more evident than an area-level differential, suggesting that area-level deprivation might not be the most effective measure of inequality for this cancer. For colorectal cancer in both sexes, we found evidence suggesting area- and individual-level inequalities, but no evidence of contextual effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings highlight that both individual and contextual effects contribute to inequalities in cancer outcomes. These insights provide potential avenues for more effective policy and practice.

Dysfunction of aged liver of male albino rats and the effect of intermitted fasting; Biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical study

Intermittent fasting exerts beneficial effects on most age-related degenerative changes throughout the body. This study aimed to investigate the possible protective effects and mechanism of intermittent fasting on aged liver in male albino rats. Forty male albino rats were used in this study and were divided into four equal groups; Group I served as control ; rats aged 1 month sacrfied when they reached age of 4 month. Group II; rats aged 1 month with intermittent fasting for 3 months. The rats sacrfied when they reached age of 4 mounth Group III; rats aged 15-month fed an ad-libitum diet. The rats sacrified when they reached age of 18 month. Group IV; 15 month rats with intermittent fasting for 3 months. The rats sacrified when they reached age of 18 month. Liver specimens were excised and processed for biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical study. Blood samples were collected for biochemical study. The result showed a significant increase in liver injury, oxidative stress, and inflammatory markers with a marked decrease in the autophagy marker in group III if compared with both group I and II. Additionally, group III showed hepatic vacuolations, cellular filtration, and congestion in both central and portal veins. A highly significant increase in the mean color intensity of positive immunochemical reaction for anti caspase 3 and anti-TNFα as well as a highly significant increase in the surface area fraction of collagen fibers were noticed in group III if compared with group I and II. Interestingly, intermittent fasting (group IV) remarkably reduced the previous alternation that that occurred in group III. It could be concluded that various biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical alterations were observed in liver rat in group III. Beneficial effects of fasting on these changes were recorded in group IV through its anti-inflammatory, anti-apoptotic effect as well as its effect in modulating autophagy in aged liver cells. This might open the gate for further research and provide a new line for therapeutic intervention in aged liver. These data lead to speculate that sporadic fasting might represent a simple, safe, and inexpensive means to fight the changes occurred in the aged liver.

Understanding longevity in Hong Kong: a comparative study with long-living, high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Since 2013, Hong Kong has sustained the world's highest life expectancy at birth-a key indicator of population health. The reasons behind this achievement remain poorly understood but are of great relevance to both rapidly developing and high-income regions. Here, we aim to compare factors behind Hong Kong's survival advantage over long-living, high-income countries.

METHODS

Life expectancy data from 1960-2020 were obtained for 18 high-income countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the Human Mortality Database and for Hong Kong from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Causes of death data from 1950-2016 were obtained from WHO's Mortality Database. We used truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) to identify the contributions to survival differences based on 263 million deaths overall. As smoking is the leading cause of premature death, we also compared smoking-attributable mortality between Hong Kong and the high-income countries.

FINDINGS

From 1979-2016, Hong Kong accumulated a substantial survival advantage over high-income countries, with a difference of 1·86 years (95% CI 1·83-1·89) for males and 2·50 years (2·47-2·53) for females. As mortality from infectious diseases declined, the main contributors to Hong Kong's survival advantage were lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases for both males (TCAL difference 1·22 years, 95% CI 1·21-1·23) and females (1·19 years, 1·18-1·21), cancer for females (0·47 years, 0·45-0·48), and transport accidents for males (0·27 years, 0·27-0·28). Among high-income populations, Hong Kong recorded the lowest cardiovascular mortality and one of the lowest cancer mortalities in women. These findings were underpinned by the lowest absolute smoking-attributable mortality in high-income regions (39·7 per 100 000 in 2016, 95% CI 34·4-45·0). Reduced smoking-attributable mortality contributed to 50·5% (0·94 years, 0·93-0·95) of Hong Kong's survival advantage over males in high-income countries and 34·8% (0·87 years, 0·87-0·88) of it in females.

INTERPRETATION

Hong Kong's leading longevity is the result of fewer diseases of poverty while suppressing the diseases of affluence. A unique combination of economic prosperity and low levels of smoking with development contributed to this achievement. As such, it offers a framework that could be replicated through deliberate policies in developing and developed populations globally.

FUNDING

Early Career Scheme (RGC ECS Grant #27602415), Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong.

Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data

BACKGROUND

High-resolution data for how mortality and longevity have changed in England, UK are scarce. We aimed to estimate trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6791 middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs) in England.

METHODS

We performed a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit research database using de-identified data for all deaths in England from 2002 to 2019, with information on age, sex, and MSOA of residence, and population counts by age, sex, and MSOA. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates of age-specific death rates by sharing information across age groups, MSOAs, and years. We used life table methods to calculate life expectancy at birth and probabilities of death in different ages by sex and MSOA.

FINDINGS

In 2002-06 and 2006-10, all but a few (0-1%) MSOAs had a life expectancy increase for female and male sexes. In 2010-14, female life expectancy decreased in 351 (5·2%) of 6791 MSOAs. By 2014-19, the number of MSOAs with declining life expectancy was 1270 (18·7%) for women and 784 (11·5%) for men. The life expectancy increase from 2002 to 2019 was smaller in MSOAs where life expectancy had been lower in 2002 (mostly northern urban MSOAs), and larger in MSOAs where life expectancy had been higher in 2002 (mostly MSOAs in and around London). As a result of these trends, the gap between the first and 99th percentiles of MSOA life expectancy for women increased from 10·7 years (95% credible interval 10·4-10·9) in 2002 to reach 14·2 years (13·9-14·5) in 2019, and for men increased from 11·5 years (11·3-11·7) in 2002 to 13·6 years (13·4-13·9) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or worsen, there is a need for pro-equity economic and social policies, and greater investment in public health and health care throughout the entire country.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and National Institutes of Health Research.

A spatiotemporal analysis of inequalities in life expectancy and 20 causes of mortality in sub-neighbourhoods of Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 1990-2016

Spatially varying baseline data can help identify and prioritise actions directed to determinants of intra-urban health inequalities. Twenty-seven years (1990-2016) of cause-specific mortality data in British Columbia, Canada were linked to three demographic data sources. Bayesian small area estimation models were used to estimate life expectancy (LE) at birth and 20 cause-specific mortality rates by sex and year. The gaps in LE for males and females ranged from 6.9 years to 9.5 years with widening inequality in more recent years. Inequality ratios increased for almost all causes, especially for HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections, maternal and neonatal disorders, and neoplasms.

How do ethnicity and deprivation impact on life expectancy at birth in people with serious mental illness? Observational study in the UK

BACKGROUND

Across international contexts, people with serious mental illnesses (SMI) experience marked reductions in life expectancy at birth. The intersection of ethnicity and social deprivation on life expectancy in SMI is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of ethnicity and area-level deprivation on life expectancy at birth in SMI, defined as schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, bipolar disorders and depression, using data from London, UK.

METHODS

Abridged life tables to calculate life expectancy at birth, in a cohort with clinician-ascribed ICD-10 schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, bipolar disorders or depression, managed in secondary mental healthcare. Life expectancy in the study population with SMI was compared with life expectancy in the general population and with those residing in the most deprived areas in England.

RESULTS

Irrespective of ethnicity, people with SMI experienced marked reductions in life expectancy at birth compared with the general population; from 14.5 years loss in men with schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders, to 13.2 years in women. Similar reductions were noted for people with depression. Across all diagnoses, life expectancy at birth in people with SMI was lower than the general population residing in the most deprived areas in England.

CONCLUSIONS

Irrespective of ethnicity, reductions in life expectancy at birth among people with SMI are worse than the general population residing in the most deprived areas in England. This trend in people with SMI is similar to groups who experience extreme social exclusion and marginalisation. Evidence-based interventions to tackle this mortality gap need to take this into account.

Prevalence, consequences and factors associated with drug use among individuals over 50 years of age in the family perspective

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence, consequences and factors associated with drug use among individuals over 50 years of age, from the perspective of their families, with particularly reference to cocaine use.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study based on secondary data with 624 family members of substance users who sought family support in 14 units of the Recomeço Família Program in São Paulo, Brazil.

RESULTS

The participants were predominately men, aged 50 to 59 years (68%); cocaine users (inhaled and/ or smoked); living alone; with a low level of education and were unemployed. They were likely to use family money to pay for their substance use, with a history of theft and aggression against strangers, and were not in treatment. Unlike other participants [≥ 60 years (31.1%)]; who were better educated and retired. In this latter group, 32.8% are alcohol users, 14.8% cocaine users (inhaled and smoked), 32.6% has physically assaulted their family, 39.7% had assaulted someone else and 18.3% had stolen objects or money from home.

CONCLUSIONS

The population has peculiar characteristics of vulnerability (cocaine use and violence) that remain under investigated; not only do routes into treatment for older adults (≥ 60) but appropriate treatment packages need to be developed too.

Health and household surveys in Brazil and England: The National Health Survey and the Health Survey for England

This paper aims to analyze the characteristics of national health surveys conducted in Brazil and England by their respective Statistics institutes. For Brazil, the National Health Survey (PNS) was considered, and the Health Survey for England (HSE) for England. To this end, we show a preliminary overview of the different population profiles of the two countries. Then, a brief historical background is presented, including the common themes that are addressed in the PNS and HSE that favor comparative analyses. Finally, we compared, for example, the inequalities in access to and use of Brazilian and English health services. The results show several possibilities for comparative analysis on topics such as health perception, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension. However, the need to consider the specificities of the population profile of each country and the methodological characteristics of the surveys is emphasized.

The contribution of multiple long-term conditions to widening inequalities in disability-free life expectancy over two decades: Longitudinal analysis of two cohorts using the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies

BACKGROUND

: Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation are widening, alongside rising prevalence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs). We use longitudinal data to assess whether MLTCs contribute to the widening DFLE inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation.

METHODS

: The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are large population-based studies of those ≥65 years, conducted in three areas in England. Baseline occurred in 1991 (CFAS I, n=7635) and 2011 (CFAS II, n=7762) with two-year follow-up. We defined disability as difficulty in activities of daily living, MLTCs as the presence of at least two of nine health conditions, and socioeconomic deprivation by area-level deprivation tertiles. DFLE and transitions between disability states and death were estimated from multistate models.

FINDINGS

: For people with MLTCs, inequalities in DFLE at age 65 between the most and least affluent widened to around 2.5 years (men:2.4 years, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.4-4.4; women:2.6 years, 95%CI 0.7-4.5) by 2011. Incident disability reduced for the most affluent women (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR):0.6, 95%CI 0.4-0.9), and mortality with disability reduced for least affluent men (RRR:0.6, 95%CI 0.5-0.8). MLTCs prevalence increased only for least affluent men (1991: 58.8%, 2011: 66.9%) and women (1991: 60.9%, 2011: 69.1%). However, DFLE inequalities were as large in people without MLTCs (men:2.4 years, 95%CI 0.3-4.5; women:3.1 years, 95% CI 0.8-5.4).

INTERPRETATION

: Widening DFLE inequalities were not solely due to MLTCs. Reduced disability incidence with MLTCs is possible but was only achieved in the most affluent.

Socioeconomic disparities in cancer incidence and mortality in England and the impact of age-at-diagnosis on cancer mortality

Background

We identify socioeconomic disparities by region in cancer morbidity and mortality in England for all-cancer and type-specific cancers, and use incidence data to quantify the impact of cancer diagnosis delays on cancer deaths between 2001–2016.

Methods and findings

We obtain population cancer morbidity and mortality rates at various age, year, gender, deprivation, and region levels based on a Bayesian approach. A significant increase in type-specific cancer deaths, which can also vary among regions, is shown as a result of delay in cancer diagnoses. Our analysis suggests increase of 7.75% (7.42% to 8.25%) in female lung cancer mortality in London, as an impact of 12-month delay in cancer diagnosis, and a 3.39% (3.29% to 3.48%) increase in male lung cancer mortality across all regions. The same delay can cause a 23.56% (23.09% to 24.30%) increase in male bowel cancer mortality. Furthermore, for all-cancer mortality, the highest increase in deprivation gap happened in the East Midlands, from 199 (186 to 212) in 2001, to 239 (224 to 252) in 2016 for males, and from 114 (107 to 121) to 163 (155 to 171) for females. Also, for female lung cancer, the deprivation gap has widened with the highest change in the North West, e.g. for incidence from 180 (172 to 188) to 272 (261 to 282), whereas it has narrowed for prostate cancer incidence with the biggest reduction in the South West from 165 (139 to 190) in 2001 to 95 (72 to 117) in 2016.

Conclusions

The analysis reveals considerable disparities in all-cancer and some type-specific cancers with respect to socioeconomic status. Furthermore, a significant increase in cancer deaths is shown as a result of delays in cancer diagnoses which can be linked to concerns about the effect of delay in cancer screening and diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health interventions at regional and deprivation level can contribute to prevention of cancer deaths.

An exploratory study to investigate alcohol consumption among breast-feeding mothers

OBJECTIVE

We examined the likelihood of breast-feeding mothers consuming alcohol according to several socio-demographic factors.

DESIGN

We carried out secondary data analyses using participant information obtained from a cross-sectional survey designed to capture the dietary habits of UK infants aged 4-18 months.

SETTING

Data concerning breast-feeding mothers' social and domestic circumstances and alcohol consumption were drawn from the 2011 Diet and Nutrition Survey of Infants and Young Children.

PARTICIPANTS

Complete data from 2683 breast-feeding mothers were included, and further analyses were carried out on those who continued to drink alcohol (n 227).

RESULTS

Logistic regression enabled the identification of social factors associated with breast-feeding and continued alcohol consumption among mothers. Several social factors were found to influence the likelihood of breast-feeding mothers drinking alcohol. For example, older mothers, mothers with partners who drank alcohol, those with higher educational attainment and household income and those who consumed alcohol whilst pregnant were more likely to continue to drink alcohol. Mothers' breast-feeding infants older than 12 months were less likely to drink alcohol than those feeding infants aged 4-6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence suggests that social circumstances influence the likelihood of alcohol use among mothers who are breast-feeding. Greater understanding of mothers' decision making with respect to the continuation or discontinuation of alcohol use whilst breast-feeding, according to the social context in which they live, is warranted.

Risk factors, awareness of disease and use of medications in a deprived population: differences between indigent natives and undocumented migrants in Italy

BACKGROUND

Undocumented migrants experience many health problems; a comparison with a suitable control group of natives living in the same socio-economic conditions is still lacking.

METHODS

Demographic data and data on risk factors, chronic conditions and dietary habits were obtained for 6933 adults (2950 Italians and 3983 undocumented migrants) receiving medical assistance from 40 non-governmental organizations all over the country.

RESULTS

Attributed to the fact that these were unselected groups, differences were found in their demographic features, the main ones being their marital status (singles: 50.5% among Italians and 42.8% among migrants; P < 0.001). Smokers were more frequent among Italians (45.3% versus 42.7% P = 0.03); the same happened with hypertension (40.5% versus 34.5% P < 0.001). Migrants were more often overweight (44.1% versus 40.5% P < 0.001) and reporting a chronic condition (20.2% versus 14.4% P < 0.001). Among those on medications (n = 1354), Italians were fewer (n = 425) and on different medications. Differences emerged also in dietary habits.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in health conditions exist between native-borns and undocumented migrants, not because of a bias related to socio-economic conditions. Further studies are needed to design sustainable health policies and tailored prevention plans.

Describing socio-economic variation in life expectancy according to an individual's education, occupation and wage in England and Wales: An analysis of the ONS Longitudinal Study

People who live in more deprived areas have poorer health outcomes, and this inequality is a major driver of health and social policy. Many interventions targeting these disparities implicitly assume that poorer health is predominantly associated with area-level factors, and that these inequalities are the same for men and women. However, health differentials due to individual socio-economic status (SES) of men and women are less well documented. We used census data linked to the ONS Longitudinal Study to derive individual-level SES in terms of occupation, education and estimated wage, and examined differences in adult mortality and life expectancy. We modelled age-, sex- and SES-specific mortality using Poisson regression, and summarised mortality differences using life expectancy at age 20. We compared the results to those calculated using area-level deprivation metrics. Wide inequalities in life expectancy between SES groups were observed, although differences across SES groups were smaller for women than for men. The widest inequalities were found across men's education (7.2-year (95% CI: 3.0-10.1) difference in life expectancy between groups) and wage (7.0-year (95% CI: 3.5-9.8) difference), and women's education (5.4-year (95% CI: 2.2-8.1) difference). Men with no qualifications had the lowest life expectancy of all groups. In terms of the number of years' difference in life expectancy, the inequalities measured here with individual-level data were of a similar magnitude to inequalities identified previously using area-level deprivation metrics. These data show that health inequalities are as strongly related to individual SES as to area-level deprivation, highlighting the complementary usefulness of these different metrics. Indeed, poor outcomes are likely to be a product of both community and individual influences. Current policy which bases health spending decisions on evidence of inequalities between geographical areas may overlook individual-level SES inequalities for those living in affluent areas, as well as missing important sex differences.

Systemic inequalities in indoor air pollution exposure in London, UK

Deprived communities in many cities are exposed to higher levels of outdoor air pollution, and there is increasing evidence of similar disparities for indoor air pollution exposure. There is a need to understand the drivers for this exposure disparity in order to develop effective interventions aimed at improving population health and reducing health inequities. With a focus on London, UK, this paper assembles evidence to examine why indoor exposure to PM2.5, NOx and CO may disproportionately impact low-income groups. In particular, five factors are explored, namely: housing location and ambient outdoor levels of pollution; housing characteristics, including ventilation properties and internal sources of pollution; occupant behaviours; time spent indoors; and underlying health conditions. Evidence is drawn from various sources, including building physics models, modelled outdoor air pollution levels, time-activity surveys, housing stock surveys, geographical data, and peer-reviewed research. A systems framework is then proposed to integrate these factors, highlighting how exposure to high levels of indoor air pollution in low-income homes is in large part due to factors beyond the control of occupants, and is therefore an area of systemic inequality.

POLICY RELEVANCE

There is increasing public and political awareness of the impact of air pollution on public health. Strong scientific evidence links exposure to air pollution with morbidity and mortality. Deprived communities may be more affected, however, with limited evidence on how deprivation may influence their personal exposure to air pollution, both outdoors and indoors. This paper describes different factors that may lead to low-income households being exposed to higher levels of indoor air pollution than the general population, using available data and models for London (i.e. living in areas of higher outdoor air pollution, in poor-quality housing, undertaking more pollution-generating activities indoors and spending more time indoors). A systems approach is used to show how these factors lead to systemic exposure inequalities, with low-income households having limited opportunities to improve their indoor air quality. This paper can inform actions and public policies to reduce environmental health inequalities, considering both indoor and outdoor air.

Life expectancy inequalities in Wales before COVID-19: an exploration of current contributions by age and cause of death and changes between 2002 and 2018

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic in Wales and the UK has highlighted significant and historic inequalities in health between social groups. To better understand the composition of these inequalities and inform planning after the pandemic, we undertook a decomposition of life expectancy inequalities between the most and least deprived quintiles for men and women by age and cause of death and explored trends between 2002 and 2018.

STUDY DESIGN

Statistical decomposition of life expectancy inequalities by age and cause of death using routine population mortality datasets.

METHODS

We used routine statistics from the Office for National Statistics for the period 2002-2018 on population and deaths in Wales stratified by age, gender, Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2019 quintile and cause of death, categorised by International Classification of Disease, version 10, code into 15 categories of public health relevance. We aggregated data to 3-year rolling figures to account for low numbers of events in some groups annually. Next, we estimated life expectancy at birth by quintile, gender and period using life table methods. Lastly, we performed a decomposition analysis using the Arriaga method to identify the specific disease categories and ages at which excess deaths occur in more disadvantaged areas to highlight potential areas for action.

RESULTS

Life expectancy inequalities between the most and least WIMD quintiles rose for both genders between 2002 and 2018: from 4.69 to 6.02 years for women (an increase of 1.33 years) and from 6.34 to 7.42 years for men (an increase of 1.08 years). Exploratory analysis of these trends suggested that the following were most influential for women: respiratory disease (1.50 years), cancers (1.36 years), circulatory disease (1.35 years) and digestive disease (0.51 years). For men, the gap was driven by circulatory disease (2.01 years), cancers (1.39 years), respiratory disease (1.25 years), digestive disease (0.79 years), drug- and alcohol-related conditions (0.54 years) and external causes (0.54 years). Contributions for women from respiratory disease, cancers, dementia and drug- and alcohol-related conditions appeared to be increasing, while among men, there were rising contributions from respiratory, digestive and circulatory disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy inequalities in Wales remain wide and have been increasing, particularly among women, with indications of worsening trends since 2010 following the introduction of fiscal austerity. As agencies recover from the pandemic, these findings should be considered alongside any resumption of services in Wales or future health and public policy.

Trends in predominant causes of death in individuals with and without diabetes in England from 2001 to 2018: an epidemiological analysis of linked primary care records

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes has increased in the UK and other high-income countries alongside a substantial decline in cardiovascular mortality. Yet data are scarce on how these trends have changed the causes of death in people with diabetes who have traditionally died primarily of vascular causes. We estimated how all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in people with diabetes have changed over time, how the composition of the mortality burden has changed, and how this composition compared with that of the non-diabetes population.

METHODS

In this epidemiological analysis of primary care records, we identified 313 907 individuals with diabetes in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a well described primary care database, between 2001 to 2018, and linked these data to UK Office for National Statistics mortality data. We assembled serial cross sections with longitudinal follow-up to generate a mixed prevalence and incidence study population of patients with diabetes. We used discretised Poisson regression models to estimate annual death rates for deaths from all causes and 12 specific causes for men and women with diabetes. We also identified age-matched and sex matched (1:1) individuals without diabetes from the same dataset and estimated mortality rates in this group.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2001, and Oct 31, 2018, total mortality declined by 32% in men and 31% in women with diagnosed diabetes. Death rates declined from 40·7 deaths per 1000 person-years to 27·8 deaths per 1000 person-years in men and from 42·7 deaths per 1000 person-years to 29·5 deaths per 1000 person-years in women with diagnosed diabetes. We found similar declines in individuals without diabetes, hence the gap in mortality between those with and without diabetes was maintained over the study period. Cause-specific death rates declined in ten of the 12 cause groups, with exceptions in dementia and liver disease, which increased in both populations. The large decline in vascular disease death rates led to a transition from vascular causes to cancers as the leading contributor to death rates in individuals with diagnosed diabetes and to the gap in death rates between those with and without diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

The decline in vascular death rates has been accompanied by a diversification of causes in individuals with diagnosed diabetes and a transition from vascular diseases to cancers as the leading contributor to diabetes-related death. Clinical and preventative approaches must reflect this trend to reduce the excess mortality risk in individuals with diabetes.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Inequalities in health-related quality of life: repeated cross-sectional study of trends in general practice survey data

BACKGROUND

After decades of steady progress, life expectancy at birth has stalled in England. Inequalities are also rising, and life expectancy has fallen for females living in the most deprived areas. However, less attention has been given to trends in other measures of population health, particularly health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

AIM

To examine trends and inequalities in HRQoL in England between 2012 and 2017.

DESIGN AND SETTING

The authors used nationally representative survey data on 3.9 million adults to examine HRQoL (measured by EQ-5D-5L overall score, plus each of the five health domains - mobility, selfcare, usual activity, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression).

METHOD

The study explored trends across time, and inequalities by sex, age, and deprivation.

RESULTS

Although HRQoL seemed steady overall between 2012 and 2017, there is evidence of increasing inequality across population subgroups. There was a rise in sex disparity over time, the female-male gap in EQ-5D-5L increased from -0.009 in 2012 to -0.016 in 2017. Trends for the youngest females and those living in the most deprived areas were of the greatest concern. Females in the most deprived regions suffered a 1.3% decrease in HRQoL between 2012 and 2017, compared with a 0.5% decrease for males. The key contribution to the decline in HRQoL, particularly in females, was a 1.5% increase in reported levels of anxiety/depression between 2012 and 2017.

CONCLUSION

Developing interventions to address these worrying trends should be a policy priority. A particular focus should be on mental health in younger populations, especially for females and in deprived areas.

Inequalities in changing mortality and life expectancy in Jiading District, Shanghai, 2002-2018

BACKGROUND

Improvements of population health in China have been unevenly distributed among different sexes and regions. Mortality Registration System provides an opportunity for timely assessments of mortality trend and inequalities.

METHODS

Causes of death were reclassified following the method of Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and ring-map of the rate by town were used to describe inequalities in changing mortality. Life expectancy (LE) and cause-deleted LE were calculated on the basis of life table technique.

RESULTS

The burden of death from 2002 to 2018 was dominated by cardiovascular diseases (CVD), neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases and injuries in Jiading district, accounting for almost 80% of total deaths. The overall ASMR dropped from 407.6/100000 to 227.1/100000, and LE increased from 77.86 years to 82.31 years. Women lived about 3.0-3.5 years longer than men. Besides, a cluster of lower LE was found for CVD in the southeast corner and one cluster for neoplasms in the southern corner of the district. The largest individual contributor to increment in LE was neoplasms, ranged from 2.41 to 3.63 years for males, and from 1.60 to 2.36 years for females.

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement in health was mainly attributed to the decline of deaths caused by CVD and neoplasms, but was distributed with sex and town. This study served as a reflection of health inequality, is conducive to formulate localized health policies and measures.

Spatio-temporal Analysis of District-level Life Expectancy from 2004 to 2017 in Korea

BACKGROUND

Health indicators, such as mortality rates or life expectancy, need to be presented at the local level to improve the health of local residents and to reduce health inequality across geographic areas. The aim of this study was to estimate life expectancy at the district level in Korea through a spatio-temporal analysis.

METHODS

Spatio-temporal models were applied to the National Health Information Database of the National Health Insurance Service to estimate the mortality rates for 19 age groups in 250 districts from 2004 to 2017 by gender in Korea. Annual district-level life tables by gender were constructed using the estimated mortality rates, and then annual district-level life expectancy by gender was estimated using the life table method and the Kannisto-Thatcher method. The annual district-level life expectancies based on the spatio-temporal models were compared to the life expectancies calculated under the assumption that the mortality rates in these 250 districts are independent from one another.

RESULTS

In 2017, district-level life expectancy at birth ranged from 75.5 years (95% credible interval [CI], 74.0-77.0 years) to 84.2 years (95% CI, 83.4-85.0 years) for men and from 83.9 years (95% CI, 83.2-84.6 years) to 88.2 years (95% CI, 87.3-89.1 years) for women. Between 2004 and 2017, district-level life expectancy at birth increased by 4.57 years (95% CI, 4.49-4.65 years) for men and by 4.06 years (95% CI, 3.99-4.12 years) for women. To obtain stable annual life expectancy estimates at the district level, it is recommended to use the life expectancy based on spatio-temporal models instead of calculating life expectancy using observed mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we estimated the annual district-level life expectancy from 2004 to 2017 in Korea by gender using a spatio-temporal model. Local governments could use annual district-level life expectancy estimates as a performance indicator of health policies to improve the health of local residents. The approach to district-level analysis with spatio-temporal modeling employed in this study could be used in future analyses to produce district-level health-related indicators in Korea.

County-Level Contextual Characteristics and Disparities in Life Expectancy

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the contribution of county-level contextual factors to differences in life expectancy in the United States.

METHODS

We used a counterfactual approach to estimate the years of life expectancy lost associated with 45 potentially modifiable county-level contextual characteristics in the United States in the year 2016. Contextual data and life expectancy data were obtained from the County Health Ranking Project and the U.S. Small-Area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, respectively.

RESULTS

Median census-tract-level life expectancy was 78.90 (interquartile range, 76.30-81.00) years, and the range across census tracts spanned 41.20 years. Large variations in life expectancy existed within and between states and within and between counties; the gap between counties was 20.30 years and gaps within counties ranged from 0 to 34.60 years. An array of 45 county-level factors was associated with 4.30 years of life expectancy loss. County-level adult smoking, food insecurity, adult obesity, physical inactivity, college education, and median household income were associated with 1.24-, 0.89-, 0.58-, 0.35-, 0.33-, and 0.14-year losses in life expectancy, respectively; and altogether were associated with a 3.53-year loss in life expectancy. The contribution of contextual factors to years of life expectancy lost varied among states and was more pronounced in states with lower life expectancy and in areas of increased socioeconomic deprivation and increased percentage of Black race.

CONCLUSION

Substantial geographic variation in life expectancy was observed. Six county-level contextual factors were associated with a 3.53-year loss in life expectancy. The findings may inform and help prioritize approaches to reduce inequalities in life expectancy in the United States.

Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England

OBJECTIVES

To estimate life expectancy at the local authority level and detect those areas that have a substantially low life expectancy after accounting for deprivation.

DESIGN

We used registration data from the Office for National Statistics on mortality and population in England, by local authority, age group and socioeconomic deprivation decile, for both men and women over the period 2001-2018. We used a statistical model within the Bayesian framework to produce robust mortality rates, which were then transformed to life expectancy estimates. A rule based on exceedance probabilities was used to detect local authorities characterised by a low life expectancy among areas with a similar deprivation level from 2012 onwards.

RESULTS

We confirmed previous findings showing differences in the life expectancy gap between the most and least deprived areas from 2012 to 2018. We found variations in life expectancy trends across local authorities, and we detected a number of those with a low life expectancy when compared with others of a similar deprivation level.

CONCLUSIONS

There are factors other than deprivation that are responsible for low life expectancy in certain local authorities. Further investigation on the detected areas can help understand better the stalling of life expectancy which was observed from 2012 onwards and plan efficient public health policies.

Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis

OBJECTIVES

Previously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail.

DESIGN

Population-based trend analysis.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

Whole populations of countries and selected cities of the UK.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

European age-standardised mortality rates (calculated by cause of death, country, city, year (1981-2017), age group, sex and-for all countries and Scottish cities-deprivation quintiles); changes in rates between 5-year periods; summary measures of both relative (relative index of inequality) and absolute (slope index of inequality) inequalities.

RESULTS

Changes in mortality from around 2011/2013 were observed throughout the UK for all adult age groups. For example, all-age female rates decreased by approximately 4%-6% during the 1980s and 1990s, approximately 7%-9% during the 2000s, but by <1% between 2011/2013 and 2015/2017. Equivalent figures for men were 4%-7%, 8%-12% and 1%-3%, respectively. This later period saw increased mortality among the most deprived populations, something observed in all countries and cities analysed, and for most causes of death: absolute and relative inequalities therefore increased. Although similar trends were seen across all parts of the UK, particular issues apply in Scotland, for example, higher and increasing drug-related mortality (with the highest rates observed in Dundee and Glasgow).

CONCLUSIONS

The study presents further evidence of changing mortality in the UK. The timing, geography and socioeconomic gradients associated with the changes appear to support suggestions that they may result, at least in part, from UK Government 'austerity' measures which have disproportionately affected the poorest.

How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000-2002 to 2015-2017

OBJECTIVE

Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000-2002 to 2012-2014 and 2012-2014 to 2015-2017.

SETTING

Scotland.

METHODS

Life expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga's method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.

RESULTS

Annualised gains in life expectancy between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55-84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30-54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer's disease, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Future research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.