Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States

Canada's approach to SARS-CoV-2 sero-surveillance: Lessons learned for routine surveillance and future pandemics

SETTING

In Canada's federated healthcare system, 13 provincial and territorial jurisdictions have independent responsibility to collect data to inform health policies. During the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023), national and regional sero-surveys mostly drew upon existing infrastructure to quickly test specimens and collect data but required cross-jurisdiction coordination and communication.

INTERVENTION

There were 4 national and 7 regional general population SARS-CoV-2 sero-surveys. Survey methodologies varied by participant selection approaches, assay choices, and reporting structures. We analyzed Canadian pandemic sero-surveillance initiatives to identify key learnings to inform future pandemic planning.

OUTCOMES

Over a million samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from 2020 to 2023 but siloed in 11 distinct datasets. Most national sero-surveys had insufficient sample size to estimate regional prevalence; differences in methodology hampered cross-regional comparisons of regional sero-surveys. Only four sero-surveys included questionnaires. Sero-surveys were not directly comparable due to different assays, sampling methodologies, and time-frames. Linkage to health records occurred in three provinces only. Dried blood spots permitted sample collection in remote populations and during stay-at-home orders.

IMPLICATIONS

To provide timely, high-quality information for public health decision-making, routine sero-surveillance systems must be adaptable, flexible, and scalable. National capability planning should include consortiums for assay design and validation, defined mechanisms to improve test capacity, base documents for data linkage and material transfer across jurisdictions, and mechanisms for real-time communication of data. Lessons learned will inform incorporation of a robust sero-survey program into routine surveillance with strategic sampling and capacity to adapt and scale rapidly as a part of a comprehensive national pandemic response plan.

Standardization use of the international classification of functioning, disability and health in the determination of health status in patients with post-acute COVID-19 syndrome

PURPOSE

To propose a standardized method for the use of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) to describe the health status in Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome (PACS) and investigate interrater agreement in the linking process in instruments and clinical exams using the ICF categories.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cross-sectional and interrater agreement study that followed the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies. Two raters performed the linking coding process in instruments of quality of life, anxiety and depression, fatigue and pulmonary function, inspiratory muscle strength and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The codes were qualified by standards defined to each instrument and exams.

RESULTS

The instrument with the lowest Cohen's Kappa coefficient was anxiety and depression (k = 0.57). Forty ICF codes were linked to clinical instruments and exams. The fatigue instrument presented a higher degree of disability by the qualification process, from severe to complete, in the linked codes.

CONCLUSION

The study presents a standardized method for the assessment of the health status of patients with PACS through ICF. Restriction in work performance, socialization and family relationships as well as disabilities in physical endurance, fatigue and exercise tolerance were found in the sample. The agreement between the raters was moderate to perfect, demonstrating that the method can be reproducible.

Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal models for prediction of (under)reporting rates and cases: COVID-19 infection among the older people in the United States during the 2020-2022 pandemic

The gap between the reported and actual COVID-19 infection cases has been an issue of concern. Here, we present Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal disease mapping models for state-level predictions of COVID-19 infection risks and (under)reporting rates among people aged 65 and above during the first two years of the pandemic in the United States. With prior elicitation based on recent prevalence studies, the study suggests that the median state-level reporting rate of COVID-19 infection was 90% (interquartile range: [78%, 96%]). Our study uncovers spatiotemporal variations and dynamics in state-level infection risks and (under)reporting rates, suggesting time-varying associations between higher population density, higher percentage of minorities, and higher percentage of vaccination and increased risks of COVID-19 infection, as well as an association between more easily accessible tests and higher reporting rates. With sensitivity analyses, we highlight the impact and importance of incorporating covariates information and objective prior references for evaluating the issue of underreporting.

Measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in neighborhood wastewater

Longitudinal wastewater sampling during the COVID-19 pandemic was an important aspect of disease surveillance, adding to a more complete understanding of infection dynamics and providing important data for community public health monitoring and intervention planning. This was largely accomplished by testing SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in samples from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). We evaluated the utility of testing for virus levels upstream from WWTP within the residential neighborhoods that feed into the WWTP. We propose that monitoring virus dynamics across residential neighborhoods could reveal important public health-relevant information about community sub-group heterogeneity in virus concentrations. PRINCIPAL RESULTS: Virus concentration patterns display heterogeneity within neighborhoods and between neighborhoods over time. Sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations as measured by RT-qPCR also corresponded closely to verified COVID-19 infection counts within individual neighborhoods. More importantly, our data suggest the loss of disease-relevant public health information when sampling occurs only at the level of WWTP instead of upstream in neighborhoods. Spikes in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in neighborhoods are often masked by dilution from other neighborhoods in the WWTP samples. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) employed at WWTP reliably detects SARS-CoV-2 in a city-sized population but provides less actionable public health information about neighborhoods experiencing greater viral infection and disease. Neighborhood sewershed sampling reveals important population-based information about local virus dynamics and improves opportunities for public health intervention. Longitudinally employed, neighborhood sewershed surveillance may provide a 3-6 day early warning of SARS-CoV-2 infection spikes and, importantly, highly specific information on subpopulations in a community particularly at higher risk at different points in time. Sampling in neighborhoods may thus provide timely and cost-saving information for targeted interventions within communities.

Carbon dioxide-activated mesoporous date palm fronds carbon integrated with MnO2/polyaniline for highly efficient capacitive deionization of water

The continuous population growth and drying up the freshwater reservoirs around the world are increasing the demand for fresh water. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore newer technologies able to purify water on large scales for human usage. Capacitive deionization is one of the most promising approaches to generate fresh water by the removal of salt ions from brackish water. In this work, we prepared three different capacitive deionization electrodes using carbonized palm tree fronds (PFC). These PFC activation was achieved using CO2 at 900°C. To generate the deionization electrodes, PFC activated carbon was combined with either polyaniline (PANI), MnO2, or both (PFC-PANI, PFC-MnO2, and PFC-MnO2-PANI). The MnO2 and PANI provided additional functionality and enhanced electrical conductivity, which resulted in much higher Na+ and Cl- ions adsorption. The BET surface area of PFC-MnO2-PANI was estimated to be 208.56 m2/g, which is approximately three times that of PCF-PANI and PFC-MnO2 alone. The morphological analysis showed that the PANI and MnO2 nanorods were well dispersed throughout the PFC network. Although PANI and MnO2 is largely embedded inside the PFC network, some remnants are visible on the surface of the electrodes. The cyclic voltammetry (CV) curves showed capacitive behavior of all electrodes in which PFC-MnO2-PANI showed highest specific capacitance of 84 F/g, while the PFC-MnO2 and PFC-PANI showed 42 and 43 F/g, respectively. Owing to its enhanced functionality and CV characteristics, the PFC-MnO2-PANI showed maximum salt adsorption capacity of 10.5 mg/g in contrast to 3.72 and 5.64 mg/g for PFC-MnO2 and PFC-PANI, respectively. Moreover, the measured contact angle for PFC-MnO2-PANI was ~51°, which indicates the hydrophilic nature of electrode that improved ions adsorption. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Date tree fronds were converted into mesopores carbon using CO2 as activation agent. Three composites were prepared with PANI, MnO2, and date palm fronds activated carbon (PFC-MnO2, PFC-MnO2-PANI, and PFC-PANI). Surface area, pore profile, surface morphology, electrochemical behavior, desalination performance, and hydrophilicity of all the electrodes were investigated. The PFC-MnO2-PANI showed maximum salt adsorption capacity of 10.5 mg/g in contrast to 3.72 and 5.64 mg/g for PFC-MnO2 and PFC-PANI, respectively.

Machine Learning-based Voice Assessment for the Detection of Positive and Recovered COVID-19 Patients

Many virological tests have been implemented during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic for diagnostic purposes, but they appear unsuitable for screening purposes. Furthermore, current screening strategies are not accurate enough to effectively curb the spread of the disease. Therefore, the present study was conducted within a controlled clinical environment to determine eventual detectable variations in the voice of COVID-19 patients, recovered and healthy subjects, and also to determine whether machine learning-based voice assessment (MLVA) can accurately discriminate between them, thus potentially serving as a more effective mass-screening tool. Three different subpopulations were consecutively recruited: positive COVID-19 patients, recovered COVID-19 patients and healthy individuals as controls. Positive patients were recruited within 10 days from nasal swab positivity. Recovery from COVID-19 was established clinically, virologically and radiologically. Healthy individuals reported no COVID-19 symptoms and yielded negative results at serological testing. All study participants provided three trials for multiple vocal tasks (sustained vowel phonation, speech, cough). All recordings were initially divided into three different binary classifications with a feature selection, ranking and cross-validated RBF-SVM pipeline. This brough a mean accuracy of 90.24%, a mean sensitivity of 91.15%, a mean specificity of 89.13% and a mean AUC of 0.94 across all tasks and all comparisons, and outlined the sustained vowel as the most effective vocal task for COVID discrimination. Moreover, a three-way classification was carried out on an external test set comprised of 30 subjects, 10 per class, with a mean accuracy of 80% and an accuracy of 100% for the detection of positive subjects. Within this assessment, recovered individuals proved to be the most difficult class to identify, and all the misclassified subjects were declared positive; this might be related to mid and short-term vocal traces of COVID-19, even after the clinical resolution of the infection. In conclusion, MLVA may accurately discriminate between positive COVID-19 patients, recovered COVID-19 patients and healthy individuals. Further studies should test MLVA among larger populations and asymptomatic positive COVID-19 patients to validate this novel screening technology and test its potential application as a potentially more effective surveillance strategy for COVID-19.

A methodology for estimating SARS-CoV-2 importation risk by air travel into Canada between July and November 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimating rates of disease importation by travellers is a key activity to assess both the risk to a country from an infectious disease emerging elsewhere in the world and the effectiveness of border measures. We describe a model used to estimate the number of travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2 into Canadian airports in 2021, and assess the impact of pre-departure testing requirements on importation risk.

METHODS

A mathematical model estimated the number of essential and non-essential air travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2, with the latter requiring a negative pre-departure test result. The number of travellers arriving infected (i.e. imported cases) depended on air travel volumes, SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk in the departure country, prior infection or vaccine acquired immunity, and, for non-essential travellers, screening from pre-departure molecular testing. Importation risk was estimated weekly from July to November 2021 as the number of imported cases and percent positivity (PP; i.e. imported cases normalised by travel volume). The impact of pre-departure testing was assessed by comparing three scenarios: baseline (pre-departure testing of all non-essential travellers; most probable importation risk given the pre-departure testing requirements), counterfactual scenario 1 (no pre-departure testing of fully vaccinated non-essential travellers), and counterfactual scenario 2 (no pre-departure testing of non-essential travellers).

RESULTS

In the baseline scenario, weekly imported cases and PP varied over time, ranging from 145 to 539 cases and 0.15 to 0.28%, respectively. Most cases arrived from the USA, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and France. While modelling suggested that essential travellers had a higher weekly PP (0.37 - 0.65%) than non-essential travellers (0.12 - 0.24%), they contributed fewer weekly cases (62 - 154) than non-essential travellers (84 - 398 per week) given their lower travel volume. Pre-departure testing was estimated to reduce imported cases by one third (counterfactual scenario 1) to one half (counterfactual scenario 2).

CONCLUSIONS

The model results highlighted the weekly variation in importation by traveller group (e.g., reason for travel and country of departure) and enabled a framework for measuring the impact of pre-departure testing requirements. Quantifying the contributors of importation risk through mathematical simulation can support the design of appropriate public health policy on border measures.

Artificial Neural Network Prediction of COVID-19 Daily Infection Count

This study addresses COVID-19 testing as a nonlinear sampling problem, aiming to uncover the dependence of the true infection count in the population on COVID-19 testing metrics such as testing volume and positivity rates. Employing an artificial neural network, we explore the relationship among daily confirmed case counts, testing data, population statistics, and the actual daily case count. The trained artificial neural network undergoes testing in in-sample, out-of-sample, and several hypothetical scenarios. A substantial focus of this paper lies in the estimation of the daily true case count, which serves as the output set of our training process. To achieve this, we implement a regularized backcasting technique that utilize death counts and the infection fatality ratio (IFR), as the death statistics and serological surveys (providing the IFR) as more reliable COVID-19 data sources. Addressing the impact of factors such as age distribution, vaccination, and emerging variants on the IFR time series is a pivotal aspect of our analysis. We expect our study to enhance our understanding of the genuine implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, subsequently benefiting mitigation strategies.

From pandemic to endemic: Divergence of COVID-19 positive-tests and hospitalization numbers from SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater of Rochester, Minnesota

Traditionally, public health surveillance relied on individual-level data but recently wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of infectious diseases including COVID-19 became a valuable tool in the public health arsenal. Here, we use WBE to follow the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rochester, Minnesota (population 121,395 at the 2020 census), from February 2021 to December 2022. We monitored the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections on public health by comparing three sets of data: quantitative measurements of viral RNA in wastewater as an unbiased reporter of virus level in the community, positive results of viral RNA or antigen tests from nasal swabs reflecting community reporting, and hospitalization data. From February 2021 to August 2022 viral RNA levels in wastewater were closely correlated with the oscillating course of COVID-19 case and hospitalization numbers. However, from September 2022 cases remained low and hospitalization numbers dropped, whereas viral RNA levels in wastewater continued to oscillate. The low reported cases may reflect virulence reduction combined with abated inclination to report, and the divergence of virus levels in wastewater from reported cases may reflect COVID-19 shifting from pandemic to endemic. WBE, which also detects asymptomatic infections, can provide an early warning of impending cases, and offers crucial insights during pandemic waves and in the transition to the endemic phase.

Applying a Digital Twin and wastewater analysis for robust validation of COVID-19 pandemic forecasts: insights from Catalonia

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 spread is challenging due to asymptomatic infections, numerous variants, and population behavior changes from non-pharmaceutical interventions. We developed a Digital Twin model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Catalonia. Continuous validation ensures our model's accuracy. Our system uses Catalonia Health Service data to quantify cases, hospitalizations, and healthcare impact. These data may be under-reported due to screening policy changes. To improve our model's reliability, we incorporate data from the Catalan Surveillance Network of SARS-CoV-2 in Sewage (SARSAIGUA). This paper shows how we use sewage data in the Digital Twin validation process to identify discrepancies between model predictions and real-time data. This continuous validation approach enables us to generate long-term forecasts, gain insights into SARS-CoV-2 spread, reassess assumptions, and enhance our understanding of the pandemic's behavior in Catalonia.

Multi-feature SEIR model for epidemic analysis and vaccine prioritization

The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model has become a valuable tool for studying infectious disease dynamics and predicting the spread of diseases, particularly concerning the COVID pandemic. However, existing models often oversimplify population characteristics and fail to account for differences in disease sensitivity and social contact rates that can vary significantly among individuals. To address these limitations, we have developed a new multi-feature SEIR model that considers the heterogeneity of health conditions (disease sensitivity) and social activity levels (contact rates) among populations affected by infectious diseases. Our model has been validated using the data of the confirmed COVID cases in Allegheny County (Pennsylvania, USA) and Hamilton County (Ohio, USA). The results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional SEIR models regarding predictive accuracy. In addition, we have used our multi-feature SEIR model to propose and evaluate different vaccine prioritization strategies tailored to the characteristics of heterogeneous populations. We have formulated optimization problems to determine effective vaccine distribution strategies. We have designed extensive numerical simulations to compare vaccine distribution strategies in different scenarios. Overall, our multi-feature SEIR model enhances the existing models and provides a more accurate picture of disease dynamics. It can help to inform public health interventions during pandemics/epidemics.

Visible minority status and occupation were associated with increased COVID-19 infection in Greater Vancouver British Columbia between June and November 2020: an ecological study

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted health disparities, especially among specific population groups. This study examines the spatial relationship between the proportion of visible minorities (VM), occupation types and COVID-19 infection in the Greater Vancouver region of British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

Provincial COVID-19 case data between June 24, 2020, and November 7, 2020, were aggregated by census dissemination area and linked with sociodemographic data from the Canadian 2016 census. Bayesian spatial Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between proportion of visible minorities, occupation types and COVID-19 infection. Models were adjusted for COVID-19 testing rates and other sociodemographic factors. Relative risk (RR) and 95% Credible Intervals (95% CrI) were calculated.

Results

We found an inverse relationship between the proportion of the Chinese population and risk of COVID-19 infection (RR = 0.98 95% CrI = 0.96, 0.99), whereas an increased risk was observed for the proportions of the South Asian group (RR = 1.10, 95% CrI = 1.08, 1.12), and Other Visible Minority group (RR = 1.06, 95% CrI = 1.04, 1.08). Similarly, a higher proportion of frontline workers (RR = 1.05, 95% CrI = 1.04, 1.07) was associated with higher infection risk compared to non-frontline.

Conclusion

Despite adjustments for testing, housing, occupation, and other social economic status variables, there is still a substantial association between the proportion of visible minorities, occupation types, and the risk of acquiring COVID-19 infection in British Columbia. This ecological analysis highlights the existing disparities in the burden of diseases among different visible minority populations and occupation types.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on People Living With Rare Diseases and Their Families: Results of a National Survey

BACKGROUND

With more than 103 million cases and 1.1 million deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating consequences for the health system and the well-being of the entire US population. The Rare Diseases Clinical Research Network funded by the National Institutes of Health was strategically positioned to study the impact of the pandemic on the large, vulnerable population of people living with rare diseases (RDs).

OBJECTIVE

This study was designed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 in the RD population, determine whether patient subgroups experienced increased occurrence or severity of infection and whether the pandemic changed RD symptoms and treatment, and understand the broader impact on respondents and their families.

METHODS

US residents who had an RD and were <90 years old completed a web-based survey investigating self-reported COVID-19 infection, pandemic-related changes in RD symptoms and medications, access to care, and psychological impact on self and family. We estimated the incidence of self-reported COVID-19 and compared it with that in the US population; evaluated the frequency of COVID-19 symptoms according to self-reported infection; assessed infection duration, complications and need for hospitalization; assessed the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on RD symptoms and treatment, and whether the pandemic influenced access to care, special food and nutrition, or demand for professional psychological assistance.

RESULTS

Between May 2, 2020, and December 15, 2020, in total, 3413 individuals completed the survey. Most were female (2212/3413, 64.81%), White (3038/3413, 89.01%), and aged ≥25 years (2646/3413, 77.53%). Overall, 80.6% (2751/3413) did not acquire COVID-19, 2.08% (71/3413) acquired it, and 16.58% (566/3413) did not know. Self-reported cases represented an annual incidence rate of 2.2% (95% CI 1.7%-2.8%). COVID-19 cases were more than twice the expected (71 vs 30.3; P<.001). COVID-19 was associated with specific symptoms (loss of taste: odds ratio [OR] 38.9, 95% CI 22.4-67.6, loss of smell: OR 30.6, 95% CI 17.7-53.1) and multiple symptoms (>9 symptoms vs none: OR 82.5, 95% CI 29-234 and 5-9: OR 44.8, 95% CI 18.7-107). Median symptom duration was 16 (IQR 9-30) days. Hospitalization (7/71, 10%) and ventilator support (4/71, 6%) were uncommon. Respondents who acquired COVID-19 reported increased occurrence and severity of RD symptoms and use or dosage of select medications; those who did not acquire COVID-19 reported decreased occurrence and severity of RD symptoms and use of medications; those who did not know had an intermediate pattern. The pandemic made it difficult to access care, receive treatment, get hospitalized, and caused mood changes for respondents and their families.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported COVID-19 was more frequent than expected and was associated with increased prevalence and severity of RD symptoms and greater use of medications. The pandemic negatively affected access to care and caused mood changes in the respondents and family members. Continued surveillance is necessary.

Determining the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics: a systematic review, 2016 to 2021; method categorisation and identification of influencing factors

BackgroundThere is currently no standardised approach to estimate respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics' timing (or seasonality), a critical information for their effective prevention and control.AimWe aimed to provide an overview of methods to define RSV seasonality and identify factors supporting method choice or interpretation/comparison of seasonal estimates.MethodsWe systematically searched PubMed and Embase (2016-2021) for studies using quantitative approaches to determine the start and end of RSV epidemics. Studies' features (data-collection purpose, location, regional/(sub)national scope), methods, and assessment characteristics (case definitions, sampled population's age, in/outpatient status, setting, diagnostics) were extracted. Methods were categorised by their need of a denominator (i.e. numbers of specimens tested) and their retrospective vs real-time application. Factors worth considering when choosing methods and assessing seasonal estimates were sought by analysing studies.ResultsWe included 32 articles presenting 49 seasonality estimates (18 thereof through the 10% positivity threshold method). Methods were classified into eight categories, two requiring a denominator (1 retrospective; 1 real-time) and six not (3 retrospective; 3 real-time). A wide range of assessment characteristics was observed. Several studies showed that seasonality estimates varied when methods differed, or data with dissimilar assessment characteristics were employed. Five factors (comprising study purpose, application time, assessment characteristics, healthcare system and policies, and context) were identified that could support method choice and result interpretation.ConclusionMethods and assessment characteristics used to define RSV seasonality are heterogeneous. Our categorisation of methods and proposed framework of factors may assist in choosing RSV seasonality methods and interpretating results.

Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Race, Ethnicity, Language, and Social Vulnerability: Evidence from a Citywide Seroprevalence Study in Massachusetts, USA

OBJECTIVES

Uncovering and addressing disparities in infectious disease outbreaks require a rapid, methodical understanding of local epidemiology. We conducted a seroprevalence study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Holyoke, Massachusetts, a majority Hispanic city with high levels of socio-economic disadvantage to estimate seroprevalence and identify disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We invited 2000 randomly sampled households between 11/5/2020 and 12/31/2020 to complete questionnaires and provide dried blood spots for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. We calculated seroprevalence based on the presence of IgG antibodies using a weighted Bayesian procedure that incorporated uncertainty in antibody test sensitivity and specificity and accounted for household clustering.

RESULTS

Two hundred eighty households including 472 individuals were enrolled. Three hundred twenty-eight individuals underwent antibody testing. Citywide seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 13.1% (95% CI 6.9-22.3) compared to 9.8% of the population infected based on publicly reported cases. Seroprevalence was 16.1% (95% CI 6.2-31.8) among Hispanic individuals compared to 9.4% (95% CI 4.6-16.4) among non-Hispanic white individuals. Seroprevalence was higher among Spanish-speaking households (21.9%; 95% CI 8.3-43.9) compared to English-speaking households (10.2%; 95% CI 5.2-18.0) and among individuals in high social vulnerability index (SVI) areas based on the CDC SVI (14.4%; 95% CI 7.1-25.5) compared to low SVI areas (8.2%; 95% CI 3.1-16.9).

CONCLUSIONS

The SARS-CoV-2 IgG seroprevalence in a city with high levels of social vulnerability was 13.1% during the pre-vaccination period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hispanic individuals and individuals in communities characterized by high SVI were at the highest risk of infection. Public health interventions should be designed to ensure that individuals in high social vulnerability communities have access to the tools to combat COVID-19.

An Open One-Step RT-qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 detection

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in millions of deaths globally, and while several diagnostic systems were proposed, real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) remains the gold standard. However, diagnostic reagents, including enzymes used in RT-PCR, are subject to centralized production models and intellectual property restrictions, which present a challenge for less developed countries. With the aim of generating a standardized One-Step open RT-qPCR protocol to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples, we purified and tested recombinant enzymes and a non-proprietary buffer. The protocol utilized M-MLV RT and Taq DNA pol enzymes to perform a Taqman probe-based assay. Synthetic RNA samples were used to validate the One-Step RT-qPCR components, demonstrating sensitivity comparable to a commercial kit routinely employed in clinical settings for patient diagnosis. Further evaluation on 40 clinical samples (20 positive and 20 negative) confirmed its comparable diagnostic accuracy. This study represents a proof of concept for an open approach to developing diagnostic kits for viral infections and diseases, which could provide a cost-effective and accessible solution for less developed countries.

Integration of individualized and population-level molecular epidemiology data to model COVID-19 outcomes

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with enhanced transmissibility and immune escape have emerged periodically throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but the impact of these variants on disease severity has remained unclear. In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, we examined the association between SARS-CoV-2 clade and patient outcome over a two-year period in Chicago, Illinois. Between March 2020 and March 2022, 14,252 residual diagnostic specimens were collected from SARS-CoV-2-positive inpatients and outpatients alongside linked clinical and demographic metadata, of which 2,114 were processed for viral whole-genome sequencing. When controlling for patient demographics and vaccination status, several viral clades were associated with risk for hospitalization, but this association was negated by the inclusion of population-level confounders, including case count, sampling bias, and shifting standards of care. These data highlight the importance of integrating non-virological factors into disease severity and outcome models for the accurate assessment of patient risk.

Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults

This study used repeat serologic testing to estimate infection rates and risk factors in two overlapping cohorts of SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative U.S. adults. One mostly unvaccinated sub-cohort was tracked from April 2020 to March 2021 (pre-vaccine/wild-type era, n = 3421), and the other, mostly vaccinated cohort, from March 2021 to June 2022 (vaccine/variant era, n = 2735). Vaccine uptake was 0.53% and 91.3% in the pre-vaccine and vaccine/variant cohorts, respectively. Corresponding seroconversion rates were 9.6 and 25.7 per 100 person-years. In both cohorts, sociodemographic and epidemiologic risk factors for infection were similar, though new risk factors emerged in the vaccine/variant era, such as having a child in the household. Despite higher incidence rates in the vaccine/variant cohort, vaccine boosters, masking, and social distancing were associated with substantially reduced infection risk, even through major variant surges.

Correction of Italian under-reporting in the first COVID-19 wave via age-specific deconvolution of hospital admissions

When the COVID-19 pandemic first emerged in early 2020, healthcare and bureaucratic systems worldwide were caught off guard and largely unprepared to deal with the scale and severity of the outbreak. In Italy, this led to a severe underreporting of infections during the first wave of the spread. The lack of accurate data is critical as it hampers the retrospective assessment of nonpharmacological interventions, the comparison with the following waves, and the estimation and validation of epidemiological models. In particular, during the first wave, reported cases of new infections were strikingly low if compared with their effects in terms of deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions. In this paper, we observe that the hospital admissions during the second wave were very well explained by the convolution of the reported daily infections with an exponential kernel. By formulating the estimation of the actual infections during the first wave as an inverse problem, its solution by a regularization approach is proposed and validated. In this way, it was possible to compute corrected time series of daily infections for each age class. The new estimates are consistent with the serological survey published in June 2020 by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and can be used to speculate on the total number of infections occurring in Italy during 2020, which appears to be about double the number officially recorded.

Seroprevalence as an Indicator of Undercounting of COVID-19 Cases in a Large Well-Described Cohort

Introduction

Reported confirmed cases represent a small portion of overall true cases for many infectious diseases. The undercounting of true cases can be considerable when a significant portion of infected individuals are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, as is the case with COVID-19. Seroprevalence studies are an efficient way to assess the extent to which true cases are undercounted during a large-scale outbreak and can inform efforts to improve case identification and reporting.

Methods

A longitudinal seroprevalence study of active duty U.S. military members was conducted from May 2020 through June 2021. A random selection of service member serum samples submitted to the Department of Defense Serum Repository was analyzed for the presence of antibodies reactive to SARS-CoV-2. The monthly seroprevalence rates were compared with those of cumulative confirmed cases reported during the study period.

Results

Seroprevalence was 2.3% in May 2020 and increased to 74.0% by June 2021. The estimated true case count based on seroprevalence was 9.3 times greater than monthly reported cases at the beginning of the study period and fell to 1.7 by the end of the study.

Conclusions

In our sample, confirmed case counts significantly underestimated true cases of COVID-19. The increased availability of testing over the study period and enhanced efforts to detect asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic cases likely contributed to the fall in the seroprevalence to reported case ratio.

SARS-CoV-2-Specific Immune Responses in Patients With Postviral Syndrome After Suspected COVID-19

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Millions of Americans were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 early in the pandemic but could not get diagnosed with COVID-19 due to testing limitations. Many have developed a postviral syndrome (PVS) including neurologic manifestations similar to those with postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Neuro-PASC). Owing to those circumstances, proof of SARS-CoV-2 infection was not required for evaluation at Northwestern Medicine's Neuro COVID-19 clinic. We sought to investigate clinical and immunologic findings suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in patients with PVS.

METHODS

We measured SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral and cell-mediated immune responses against Nucleocapsid and Spike proteins in 29 patients with PVS after suspected COVID-19, 32 confirmed age-matched/sex-matched Neuro-PASC (NP) patients, and 18 unexposed healthy controls. Neurologic symptoms and signs, comorbidities, quality of life, and cognitive testing data collected during clinic visits were studied retrospectively.

RESULTS

Of 29 patients with PVS, 12 (41%) had detectable humoral or cellular immune responses consistent with prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Of 12 PVS responders (PVS+), 75% harbored anti-Nucleocapsid and 50% harbored anti-Spike responses. Patients with PVS+ had similar neurologic symptoms as patients with NP, but clinic evaluation occurred 5.3 months later from the time of symptom onset (10.7 vs 5.4 months; p = 0.0006). Patients with PVS+ and NP had similar subjective impairments in quality of life measures including cognitive function and fatigue. Patients with PVS+ had similar results in objective cognitive measures of processing speed, attention, and executive function and better results in working memory than patients with NP.

DISCUSSION

Antibody and T-cell assays showed evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure in approximately 40% of the PVS group. Three-quarters of patients with PVS+ had detectable anti-Nucleocapsid and one-half anti-Spike responses, highlighting the importance of multitargeted COVID-19 immunologic evaluation and the limitations of commercially available diagnostic tests. Despite their persistent symptoms, lack of COVID-19 diagnosis likely delayed clinical care in patients with PVS. Our data suggest that millions of Americans presenting with PVS resembling Neuro-PASC were indeed exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of the pandemic, and they deserve the same access to care and inclusion in research studies as patients with NP with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis.

Lineage replacement and evolution captured by 3 years of the United Kingdom Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

The Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey (ONS-CIS) is the largest surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the community, and collected data on the United Kingdom (UK) epidemic from April 2020 until March 2023 before being paused. Here, we report on the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 determined by analysing the sequenced samples collected by the ONS-CIS during this period. We observed a series of sweeps or partial sweeps, with each sweeping lineage having a distinct growth advantage compared to their predecessors, although this was also accompanied by a gradual fall in average viral burdens from June 2021 to March 2023. The sweeps also generated an alternating pattern in which most samples had either S-gene target failure (SGTF) or non-SGTF over time. Evolution was characterized by steadily increasing divergence and diversity within lineages, but with step increases in divergence associated with each sweeping major lineage. This led to a faster overall rate of evolution when measured at the between-lineage level compared to within lineages, and fluctuating levels of diversity. These observations highlight the value of viral sequencing integrated into community surveillance studies to monitor the viral epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2, and potentially other pathogens.

Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults

Background

Infectious disease surveillance systems, which largely rely on diagnosed cases, underestimate the true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, due to under-ascertainment and underreporting. We used repeat serologic testing to measure N-protein seroconversion in a well-characterized cohort of U.S. adults with no serologic evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and characterize risk factors, with comparisons before and after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and variant eras.

Methods

We assessed the incidence rate of infection and risk factors in two sub-groups (cohorts) that were SARS-CoV-2 N-protein seronegative at the start of each follow-up period: 1) the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort (n=3,421), followed from April to November 2020; and 2) the vaccine/variant era cohort (n=2,735), followed from November 2020 to June 2022. Both cohorts underwent repeat serologic testing with an assay for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 N protein (Bio-Rad Platelia SARS-CoV-2 total Ab). We estimated crude incidence and sociodemographic/epidemiologic risk factors in both cohorts. We used multivariate Poisson models to compare the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort (referent group) to that in the vaccine/variant era cohort, within strata of vaccination status and epidemiologic risk factors (essential worker status, child in the household, case in the household, social distancing).

Findings

In the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort, only 18 of the 3,421 participants (0.53%) had ≥1 vaccine dose by the end of follow-up, compared with 2,497/2,735 (91.3%) in the vaccine/variant era cohort. We observed 323 and 815 seroconversions in the pre-vaccine/wild-type era and the vaccine/variant era and cohorts, respectively, with corresponding incidence rates of 9.6 (95% CI: 8.3-11.5) and 25.7 (95% CI: 24.2-27.3) per 100 person-years. Associations of sociodemographic and epidemiologic risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 incidence were largely similar in the pre-vaccine/wild-type and vaccine/variant era cohorts. However, some new epidemiologic risk factors emerged in the vaccine/variant era cohort, including having a child in the household, and never wearing a mask while using public transit. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR), with the entire pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort as the referent group, showed markedly higher incidence in the vaccine/variant era cohort, but with more vaccine doses associated with lower incidence: aIRRun/undervaccinated=5.3 (95% CI: 4.2-6.7); aIRRprimary series only=5.1 (95% CI: 4.2-7.3); aIRRboosted once=2.5 (95% CI: 2.1-3.0), and aIRRboosted twice=1.65 (95% CI: 1.3-2.1). These associations were essentially unchanged in risk factor-stratified models.

Interpretation

In SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative individuals, large increases in incidence and newly emerging epidemiologic risk factors in the vaccine/variant era likely resulted from multiple co-occurring factors, including policy changes, behavior changes, surges in transmission, and changes in SARS-CoV-2 variant properties. While SARS-CoV-2 incidence increased markedly in most groups in the vaccine/variant era, being up to date on vaccines and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as masking and social distancing, remained reliable strategies to mitigate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, even through major surges due to immune evasive variants. Repeat serologic testing in cohort studies is a useful and complementary strategy to characterize SARS-CoV-2 incidence and risk factors.

Campus node-based wastewater surveillance enables COVID-19 case localization and confirms lower SARS-CoV-2 burden relative to the surrounding community

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been established as a powerful tool that can guide health policy at multiple levels of government. However, this approach has not been well assessed at more granular scales, including large work sites such as University campuses. Between August 2021 and April 2022, we explored the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater using qPCR assays from multiple complimentary sewer catchments and residential buildings spanning the University of Calgary's campus and how this compared to levels from the municipal wastewater treatment plant servicing the campus. Real-time contact tracing data was used to evaluate an association between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 burden and clinically confirmed cases and to assess the potential of WBS as a tool for disease monitoring across worksites. Concentrations of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 RNA varied significantly across six sampling sites - regardless of several normalization strategies - with certain catchments consistently demonstrating values 1-2 orders higher than the others. Relative to clinical cases identified in specific sewersheds, WBS provided one-week leading indicator. Additionally, our comprehensive monitoring strategy enabled an estimation of the total burden of SARS-CoV-2 for the campus per capita, which was significantly lower than the surrounding community (p≤0.001). Allele-specific qPCR assays confirmed that variants across campus were representative of the community at large, and at no time did emerging variants first debut on campus. This study demonstrates how WBS can be efficiently applied to locate hotspots of disease activity at a very granular scale, and predict disease burden across large, complex worksites.

The effective reproductive number: Modeling and prediction with application to the multi-wave Covid-19 pandemic

Classical compartmental models of infectious disease assume that spread occurs through a homogeneous population. This produces poor fits to real data, because individuals vary in their number of epidemiologically-relevant contacts, and hence in their ability to transmit disease. In particular, network theory suggests that super-spreading events tend to happen more often at the beginning of an epidemic, which is inconsistent with the homogeneity assumption. In this paper we argue that a flexible decay shape for the effective reproductive number (Rt) indexed by the susceptible fraction (St) is a theory-informed modeling choice, which better captures the progression of disease incidence over human populations. This, in turn, produces better retrospective fits, as well as more accurate prospective predictions of observed epidemic curves. We extend this framework to fit multi-wave epidemics, and to accommodate public health restrictions on mobility. We demonstrate the performance of this model by doing a prediction study over two years of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic.

Accurately summarizing an outbreak using epidemiological models takes time

Recent outbreaks of Mpox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The feasibility of this estimation task is known as the practical identifiability (PI) problem. Here, we investigate the PI of eight commonly reported statistics of the classic susceptible-infectious-recovered model using a new measure that shows how much a researcher can expect to learn in a model-based Bayesian analysis of prevalence data. Our findings show that the basic reproductive number and final outbreak size are often poorly identified, with learning exceeding that of individual model parameters only in the early stages of an outbreak. The peak intensity, peak timing and initial growth rate are better identified, being in expectation over 20 times more probable having seen the data by the time the underlying outbreak peaks. We then test PI for a variety of true parameter combinations and find that PI is especially problematic in slow-growing or less-severe outbreaks. These results add to the growing body of literature questioning the reliability of inferences from epidemiological models when limited data are available.

Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: Parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India

A deterministic model with testing of infected individuals has been proposed to investigate the potential consequences of the impact of testing strategy. The model exhibits global dynamics concerning the disease-free and a unique endemic equilibrium depending on the basic reproduction number when the recruitment of infected individuals is zero; otherwise, the model does not have a disease-free equilibrium, and disease never dies out in the community. Model parameters have been estimated using the maximum likelihood method with respect to the data of early COVID-19 outbreak in India. The practical identifiability analysis shows that the model parameters are estimated uniquely. The consequences of the testing rate for the weekly new cases of early COVID-19 data in India tell that if the testing rate is increased by 20% and 30% from its baseline value, the weekly new cases at the peak are decreased by 37.63% and 52.90%; and it also delayed the peak time by four and fourteen weeks, respectively. Similar findings are obtained for the testing efficacy that if it is increased by 12.67% from its baseline value, the weekly new cases at the peak are decreased by 59.05% and delayed the peak by 15 weeks. Therefore, a higher testing rate and efficacy reduce the disease burden by tumbling the new cases, representing a real scenario. It is also obtained that the testing rate and efficacy reduce the epidemic's severity by increasing the final size of the susceptible population. The testing rate is found more significant if testing efficacy is high. Global sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) determine the key parameters that must be targeted to worsen/contain the epidemic.

COVID-19 and Risk for Mental Disorders Among Adults in Denmark

Importance

Psychiatric outcomes after COVID-19 have been of high concern during the pandemic; however, studies on a nationwide level are lacking.

Objective

To estimate the risk of mental disorders and use of psychotropic medication among individuals with COVID-19 compared with individuals not tested, individuals with SARS-CoV-2-negative test results, and those hospitalized for non-COVID-19 infections.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This nationwide cohort study used Danish registries to identify all individuals who were alive, 18 years or older, and residing in Denmark between January 1 and March 1, 2020 (N = 4 152 792), excluding individuals with a mental disorder history (n = 616 546), with follow-up until December 31, 2021.

Exposures

Results of SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing (negative, positive, and never tested) and COVID-19 hospitalization.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Risk of new-onset mental disorders (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, codes F00-F99) and redeemed psychotropic medication (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification codes N05-N06) was estimated through survival analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model, with a hierarchical time-varying exposure, reporting hazard rate ratios (HRR) with 95% CIs. All outcomes were adjusted for age, sex, parental history of mental illness, Charlson Comorbidity Index, educational level, income, and job status.

Results

A total of 526 749 individuals had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 (50.2% men; mean [SD] age, 41.18 [17.06] years), while 3 124 933 had negative test results (50.6% women; mean [SD] age, 49.36 [19.00] years), and 501 110 had no tests performed (54.6% men; mean [SD] age, 60.71 [19.78] years). Follow-up time was 1.83 years for 93.4% of the population. The risk of mental disorders was increased in individuals with positive (HRR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.17-1.31]) and negative (HRR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.38-1.46]) test results for SARS-CoV-2 compared with those never tested. Compared with individuals with negative test results, the risk of new-onset mental disorders in SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals was lower in the group aged 18 to 29 years (HRR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.69-0.81]), whereas individuals 70 years or older had an increased risk (HRR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.05-1.50]). A similar pattern was seen regarding psychotropic medication use, with a decreased risk in the group aged 18 to 29 years (HRR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.76-0.85]) and elevated risk in those 70 years or older (HRR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.45-1.70]). The risk for new-onset mental disorders was substantially elevated in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 compared with the general population (HRR, 2.54 [95% CI, 2.06-3.14]); however, no significant difference in risk was seen when compared with hospitalization for non-COVID-19 respiratory tract infections (HRR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.82-1.29]).

Conclusion and Relevance

In this Danish nationwide cohort study, overall risk of new-onset mental disorders in SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals did not exceed the risk among individuals with negative test results (except for those aged ≥70 years). However, when hospitalized, patients with COVID-19 had markedly increased risk compared with the general population, but comparable to risk among patients hospitalized for non-COVID-19 infections. Future studies should include even longer follow-up time and preferentially include immunological biomarkers to further investigate the impact of infection severity on postinfectious mental disorder sequelae.

Long-term neurological outcome after COVID-19 using all SARS-CoV-2 test results and hospitalisations in Denmark with 22-month follow-up

Hospitalisation with COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk of neurological sequelae; however, representative nationwide studies comparing to other infections with similar severity and also including milder SARS-CoV-2 infections have been lacking. Using the nationwide Danish registers including all SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results and hospitalisations between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, we estimate the risk of any first neurological disorder diagnosed in inpatient, outpatient, or emergency room settings. We show that positive tests increase the rate of neurological disorders by a hazard ratio of 1.96 (95% confidence interval: 1.88-2.05) compared to individuals not tested and by a hazard ratio of 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.16) compared to individuals with negative tests only. However, there is no evidence that the risk of neurological disorders is higher for individuals who test positive compared to non-COVID-19 infections treated with anti-infective medication. The risk of neurological disorders is increased after COVID-19-hospitalisation compared to no COVID-19 hospital admission; however, these risks are comparable to hospitalisation with other respiratory infections (P value 0.328). In conclusion, COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk of neurological disorders, but no more than that observed after other infections of similar severity.

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and other public health outcomes during the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, New York City, April-May 2022

BACKGROUND

Routine case surveillance data for SARS-CoV-2 are incomplete, unrepresentative, missing key variables of interest, and may be increasingly unreliable for timely surge detection and understanding the true burden of infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 1030 New York City (NYC) adult residents ≥18 years on May 7-8, 2022. We estimated the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the preceding 14-day period. Respondents were asked about SARS-CoV-2 testing, testing outcomes, COVID-like symptoms, and contact with SARS-CoV-2 cases. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates were age- and sex-adjusted to the 2020 U.S.

POPULATION

We triangulated survey-based prevalence estimates with contemporaneous official SARS-CoV-2 counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations.

RESULTS

We show that 22.1% (95% CI 17.9-26.2%) of respondents had SARS-CoV-2 infection during the two-week study period, corresponding to ~1.5 million adults (95% CI 1.3-1.8 million). The official SARS-CoV-2 case count during the study period is 51,218. Prevalence is estimated at 36.6% (95% CI 28.3-45.8%) among individuals with co-morbidities, 13.7% (95% CI 10.4-17.9%) among those 65+ years, and 15.3% (95% CI 9.6-23.5%) among unvaccinated persons. Among individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 infection, hybrid immunity (history of both vaccination and infection) is 66.2% (95% CI 55.7-76.7%), 44.1% (95% CI 33.0-55.1%) were aware of the antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 15.1% (95% CI 7.1-23.1%) reported receiving it. Hospitalizations, deaths and SARS-CoV-2 virus concentrations in wastewater remained well below that during the BA.1 surge.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the true magnitude of NYC's BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge may have been vastly underestimated by routine case counts and wastewater surveillance. Hybrid immunity, bolstered by the recent BA.1 surge, likely limited the severity of the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge.

Spike- and nucleocapsid-based gold colloid assay toward the development of an adhesive bandage for rapid SARS-CoV-2 immune response detection and screening

Immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies are important biomarkers used for the diagnosis and screening of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. These antibodies are highly specific to the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This paper outlines the development steps of a novel hybrid (vertical-lateral-vertical) flow assay in the form of a finger-stick point-of-care device, similar to an adhesive bandage, designed for the timely detection and screening of IgM and IgG immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infections. The assay, comprising a vertically stacked plasma/serum separation membrane, conjugate pad, and detection (readout) zone, utilizes gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) conjugated with SARS-CoV-2 S and N proteins to effectively capture IgM and IgG antibodies from a pinprick (~15 µL) of blood in just one step and provides results of no immune IgM-/IgG-, early immune IgM+/IgG-, active immune IgM+/IgG+ or immune IgM-/IgG+ in a short amount of time (minutes). The adhesive bandage-like construction is an example of the design of rapid, low-cost, disposable, and easy-to-use tests for large-scale detection and screening in households. Furthermore, the bandage can be easily adjusted and optimized to detect different viral infections as they arise by simply selecting appropriate antigens related to pandemics and outbreaks.

Presence of SARS-CoV-2 in urban effluents in south-east Buenos Aires, Argentina, May 2020 to March 2022

Objectives

To implement and evaluate the use of wastewater sampling for detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in two coastal districts of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina.

Methods

In General Pueyrredon district, 400 mL of wastewater samples were taken with an automatic sampler for 24 hours, while in Pinamar district, 20 L in total (2.2 L at 20-minute intervals) were taken. Samples were collected once a week. The samples were concentrated based on flocculation using polyaluminum chloride. RNA purification and target gene amplification and detection were performed using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for clinical diagnosis of human nasopharyngeal swabs.

Results

In both districts, the presence of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in wastewater. In General Pueyrredon, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in epidemiological week 28, 2020, which was 20 days before the start of an increase in coronavirus virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the first wave (epidemiological week 31) and 9 weeks before the maximum number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases was recorded. In Pinamar district, the virus genome was detected in epidemiological week 51, 2020 but it was not possible to carry out the sampling again until epidemiological week 4, 2022, when viral circulation was again detected.

Conclusions

It was possible to detect SARS-CoV-2 virus genome in wastewater, demonstrating the usefulness of the application of wastewater epidemiology for long-term SARS-CoV-2 detection and monitoring.

Charting the spatial dynamics of early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Washington state

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been geographically uneven. To understand the drivers of this spatial variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, in particular the role of stochasticity, we used the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 invasion in Washington state as a case study. We analysed spatially-resolved COVID-19 epidemiological data using two distinct statistical analyses. The first analysis involved using hierarchical clustering on the matrix of correlations between county-level case report time series to identify geographical patterns in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across the state. In the second analysis, we used a stochastic transmission model to perform likelihood-based inference on hospitalised cases from five counties in the Puget Sound region. Our clustering analysis identifies five distinct clusters and clear spatial patterning. Four of the clusters correspond to different geographical regions, with the final cluster spanning the state. Our inferential analysis suggests that a high degree of connectivity across the region is necessary for the model to explain the rapid inter-county spread observed early in the pandemic. In addition, our approach allows us to quantify the impact of stochastic events in determining the subsequent epidemic. We find that atypically rapid transmission during January and February 2020 is necessary to explain the observed epidemic trajectories in King and Snohomish counties, demonstrating a persisting impact of stochastic events. Our results highlight the limited utility of epidemiological measures calculated over broad spatial scales. Furthermore, our results make clear the challenges with predicting epidemic spread within spatially extensive metropolitan areas, and indicate the need for high-resolution mobility and epidemiological data.

Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Adult Populations in Cameroon: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study Among Blood Donors in the Cities of Yaoundé and Douala

Over a period of about 9 months, we conducted three serosurveys in the two major cities of Cameroon to determine the prevalence of SARS-COV-2 antibodies and to identify factors associated with seropositivity in each survey. We conducted three independent cross-sectional serosurveys of adult blood donors at the Central Hospital in Yaoundé (CHY), the Jamot Hospital in Yaoundé (JHY) and at the Laquintinie Hospital in Douala (LHD) who consented in writing to participate. Before blood sampling, a short questionnaire was administered to participants to collect their sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. We included a total of 743, 1202, and 1501 participants in the first (January 25-February 15, 2021), second (May 03-28, 2021), and third (November 29-December 31, 2021) surveys, respectively. The adjusted seroprevalence increased from 66.3% (95% CrI 61.1-71.3) in the first survey to 87.2% (95% CrI 84.0-90.0) in the second survey, and 98.4% (95% CrI 96.8-99.7) in the third survey. In the first survey, study site, participant occupation, and comorbid conditions were associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, whereas only study site remained associated in the second survey. None of the factors studied was significantly associated with seropositivity in the third survey. Together, the data suggest a rapid initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the study population, independent of the sociodemographic parameters assessed.

Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S

Reconstructing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is central to understanding the state of the pandemic. Seroprevalence studies are often used to assess cumulative infections as they can identify asymptomatic infection. Since July 2020, commercial laboratories have conducted nationwide serosurveys for the U.S. CDC. They employed three assays, with different sensitivities and specificities, potentially introducing biases in seroprevalence estimates. Using models, we show that accounting for assays explains some of the observed state-to-state variation in seroprevalence, and when integrating case and death surveillance data, we show that when using the Abbott assay, estimates of proportions infected can differ substantially from seroprevalence estimates. We also found that states with higher proportions infected (before or after vaccination) had lower vaccination coverages, a pattern corroborated using a separate dataset. Finally, to understand vaccination rates relative to the increase in cases, we estimated the proportions of the population that received a vaccine prior to infection.

Safety of International Professional Sports Competitions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Association Football Experience

Major sporting events were suspended during the most acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Competitions are resuming with enhanced hygiene protocols and altered mechanics. While risks for players and staff have been studied, the impact of large-scale tournaments on the communities that host them remains largely unstudied. CONMEBOL Copa América is one of the first wide-scale international tournaments to be conducted in its original format since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tournament saw 10 national teams compete in four Brazilian cities during a period of heightened viral transmission. The analysis of over 28,000 compulsory PCR tests showed that positive cases did not lead to the uncontrolled spread of the disease among staff and players. More importantly, the data indicate that locally hired staff were not exposed to increased risk while working. The Copa América experience shows that international sporting competitions can be conducted safely even under unfavourable epidemiological situations.

Estimating the Under-ascertainment of COVID-19 cases in Toronto, Ontario, March to May 2020

Background

Public health surveillance data do not always capture all cases, due in part to test availability and health care seeking behaviour. Our study aimed to estimate under-ascertainment multipliers for each step in the reporting chain for COVID-19 in Toronto, Canada.

Design and methods

We applied stochastic modeling to estimate these proportions for the period from March 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic) through to May 23, 2020, and for three distinct windows with different laboratory testing criteria within this period.

Results

For each laboratory-confirmed symptomatic case reported to Toronto Public Health during the entire period, the estimated number of COVID-19 infections in the community was 18 (5th and 95th percentile: 12, 29). The factor most associated with under-reporting was the proportion of those who sought care that received a test.

Conclusions

Public health officials should use improved estimates to better understand the burden of COVID-19 and other similar infections.

Duration of viral infectiousness and correlation with symptoms and diagnostic testing in non-hospitalized adults during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection: A longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 have relied on limited data on duration of viral infectiousness and correlation with COVID-19 symptoms and diagnostic testing.

METHODS

We enrolled ambulatory adults with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and performed serial measurements of COVID-19 symptoms, nasal swab viral RNA, nucleocapsid (N) and spike (S) antigens, and replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 by viral growth in culture. We determined average time from symptom onset to a first negative test result and estimated risk of infectiousness, as defined by positive viral growth in culture.

RESULTS

Among 95 adults, median [interquartile range] time from symptom onset to first negative test result was 9 [5] days, 13 [6] days, 11 [4] days, and >19 days for S antigen, N antigen, culture growth, and viral RNA by RT-PCR, respectively. Beyond two weeks, virus growth and N antigen titers were rarely positive, while viral RNA remained detectable among half (26/51) of participants tested 21-30 days after symptom onset. Between 6-10 days from symptom onset, N antigen was strongly associated with culture positivity (relative risk=7.61, 95% CI: 3.01-19.22), whereas neither viral RNA nor symptoms were associated with culture positivity. During the 14 days following symptom onset, the presence of N antigen remained strongly associated (adjusted relative risk=7.66, 95% CI: 3.96-14.82) with culture positivity, regardless of COVID-19 symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Most adults have replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 for 10-14 after symptom onset. N antigen testing is a strong predictor of viral infectiousness and may be a more suitable biomarker, rather than absence of symptoms or viral RNA, to discontinue isolation within two weeks from symptom onset.

Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Classical infectious disease models during epidemics have widespread usage, from predicting the probability of new infections to developing vaccination plans for informing policy decisions and public health responses. However, it is important to correctly classify reported data and understand how this impacts estimation of model parameters. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an abundant amount of data that allow for thorough testing of disease modelling assumptions, as well as how we think about classical infectious disease modelling paradigms.

Objective

We aim to assess the appropriateness of model parameter estimates and prediction results in classical infectious disease compartmental modelling frameworks given available data types (infected, active, quarantined, and recovered cases) for situations where just one data type is available to fit the model. Our main focus is on how model prediction results are dependent on data being assigned to the right model compartment.

Methods

We first use simulated data to explore parameter reliability and prediction capability with three formulations of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) modelling framework. We then explore two applications with reported data to assess which data and models are sufficient for reliable model parameter estimation and prediction accuracy: a classical influenza outbreak in a boarding school in England and COVID-19 data from the fall of 2020 in Missoula County, Montana, USA.

Results

We demonstrated the magnitude of parameter estimation errors and subsequent prediction errors resulting from data misclassification to model compartments with simulated data. We showed that prediction accuracy in each formulation of the classical disease modelling framework was largely determined by correct data classification versus misclassification. Using a classical example of influenza epidemics in an England boarding school, we argue that the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) model is more appropriate than the commonly employed SIR model given the data collected (number of active cases). Similarly, we show in the COVID-19 disease model example that reported active cases could be used inappropriately in the SIR modelling framework if treated as infected.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the role of misclassification of disease data and thus the importance of correctly classifying reported data to the proper compartment using both simulated and real data. For both a classical influenza data set and a COVID-19 case data set, we demonstrate the implications of using the "right" data in the "wrong" model. The importance of correctly classifying reported data will have downstream impacts on predictions of number of infections, as well as minimal vaccination requirements.

Prevalence estimation and optimal classification methods to account for time dependence in antibody levels

Serology testing can identify past infection by quantifying the immune response of an infected individual providing important public health guidance. Individual immune responses are time-dependent, which is reflected in antibody measurements. Moreover, the probability of obtaining a particular measurement from a random sample changes due to changing prevalence (i.e., seroprevalence, or fraction of individuals exhibiting an immune response) of the disease in the population. Taking into account these personal and population-level effects, we develop a mathematical model that suggests a natural adaptive scheme for estimating prevalence as a function of time. We then combine the estimated prevalence with optimal decision theory to develop a time-dependent probabilistic classification scheme that minimizes the error associated with classifying a value as positive (history of infection) or negative (no such history) on a given day since the start of the pandemic. We validate this analysis by using a combination of real-world and synthetic SARS-CoV-2 data and discuss the type of longitudinal studies needed to execute this scheme in real-world settings.

Engineering resource allocation in artificially minimized cells: Is genome reduction the best strategy?

The elimination of the expression of cellular functions that are not needed in a certain well-defined artificial environment, such as those used in industrial production facilities, has been the goal of many cellular minimization projects. The generation of a minimal cell with reduced burden and less host-function interactions has been pursued as a tool to improve microbial production strains. In this work, we analysed two cellular complexity reduction strategies: genome and proteome reduction. With the aid of an absolute proteomics data set and a genome-scale model of metabolism and protein expression (ME-model), we quantitatively assessed the difference of reducing genome to the correspondence of reducing proteome. We compare the approaches in terms of energy consumption, defined in ATP equivalents. We aim to show what is the best strategy for improving resource allocation in minimized cells. Our results show that genome reduction by length is not proportional to reducing resource use. When we normalize calculated energy savings, we show that strains with the larger calculated proteome reduction show the largest resource use reduction. Furthermore, we propose that reducing highly expressed proteins should be the target as the translation of a gene uses most of the energy. The strategies proposed here should guide cell design when the aim of a project is to reduce the maximum amount or cellular resources.

Associations between genetically predicted levels of blood metabolites and pancreatic cancer risk

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most aggressive solid malignancies, which is featured by systematic metabolism. Thus, a better understanding of metabolic dysregulation in PDAC is important to better characterize its etiology. Here, we performed a large metabolome-wide association study (MWAS) to systematically explore associations between genetically predicted metabolite levels in blood and PDAC risk. Using data from 881 subjects of European descent in the TwinsUK Project, comprehensive genetic models were built to predict serum metabolite levels. These prediction models were applied to the genetic data of 8275 cases and 6723 controls included in the PanScan (I, II and III) and PanC4 consortia. After assessing the metabolite-PDAC risk associations by a slightly modified TWAS/FUSION framework, we identified five metabolites (including two dipeptides) showing significant associations with PDAC risk at false discovery rate (FDR) <0.05. Integrated with gut microbial information, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were further performed to investigate the relationship among serum metabolites, gut microbiome features and PDAC. The flavonoid-degrading bacteria Flavonifractor sp90199495 was found to be associated with metabolite X-21849 and it was also shown to be associated with PDAC risk. Collectively, our study identified novel candidate metabolites for PDAC risk, which could lead to new insights into the etiology of PDAC and improved treatment options.

Real-time digital data of international passengers will shine in the precaution of epidemics

International movement plays an important role in spatial spread of infectious diseases. Here, we share two successful COVID-19 interventions based on real-time digital information collected from international passengers, which have been performed in Greece and China respectively. Both of the interventions demonstrated good performance and showed the potential of real-time digital data in containing the spread. However, several key points should not be ignored when we promote similar strategies.

The Importance of Incorporating At-Home Testing Into SARS-CoV-2 Point Prevalence Estimates: Findings From a US National Cohort, February 2022

BACKGROUND

Passive, case-based surveillance underestimates the true extent of active infections in the population due to undiagnosed and untested cases, the exclusion of probable cases diagnosed point-of-care rapid antigen tests, and the exclusive use of at-home rapid tests which are not reported as part of case-based surveillance. The extent in which COVID-19 surveillance may be underestimating the burden of infection is likely due to time-varying factors such as decreased test-seeking behaviors and increased access to and availability of at-home testing.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 based on different definitions of a case to ascertain the extent to which cases of SARS-CoV-2 may be underestimated by case-based surveillance.

METHODS

A survey on COVID-19 exposure, infection, and testing was administered to calculate point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among a diverse sample of cohort adults from February 8, 2022, to February 22, 2022. Three-point prevalence estimates were calculated among the cohort, as follows: (1) proportion positives based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and rapid antigen tests; (2) proportion positives based on testing exclusively with rapid at-home tests; and (3) proportion of probable undiagnosed cases. Test positivity and prevalence differences across booster status were also examined.

RESULTS

Among a cohort of 4328, there were a total of 644 (14.9%) cases. The point prevalence estimate based on PCR or rapid antigen tests was 5.5% (95% CI 4.8%-6.2%), 3.7% (95% CI 3.1%-4.2%) based on at-home rapid tests, and 5.7% (95% CI 5.0%-6.4%) based on the case definition of a probable case. The total point prevalence across all definitions was 14.9% (95% CI 13.8%-16.0%). The percent positivity among PCR or rapid tests was 50.2%. No statistically significant differences were observed in prevalence between participants with a COVID-19 booster compared to fully vaccinated and nonboosted participants except among exclusive at-home rapid testers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a substantial number of cases were missed by case-based surveillance systems during the Omicron B.1.1.529 surge, when at-home testing was common. Point prevalence surveys may be a rapid tool to be used to understand SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and would be especially important during case surges to measure the scope and spread of active infections in the population.

Association Between Population-Level Factors and Household Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Accurate estimation of household secondary attack rate (SAR) is crucial to understand the transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The impact of population-level factors, such as transmission intensity in the community, on SAR estimates is rarely explored.

Methods

In this study, we included articles with original data to compute the household SAR. To determine the impact of transmission intensity in the community on household SAR estimates, we explored the association between SAR estimates and the incidence rate of cases by country during the study period.

Results

We identified 163 studies to extract data on SARs from 326 031 cases and 2 009 859 household contacts. The correlation between the incidence rate of cases during the study period and SAR estimates was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49). We found that doubling the incidence rate of cases during the study period was associated with a 1.2% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.8%) higher household SAR.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the incidence rate of cases during the study period is associated with higher SAR. Ignoring this factor may overestimate SARs, especially for regions with high incidences, which further impacts control policies and epidemiological characterization of emerging variants.

Backcasting COVID-19: a physics-informed estimate for early case incidence

It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian process regression to estimate the number of cases during the first 2020 wave based on the second wave of the epidemic in several European countries, South Korea and Brazil. We assume that the second wave was more accurately monitored, even though we acknowledge that behavioural changes occurred during the pandemic and region- (or country-) specific monitoring protocols evolved. We then construct a manifold diffeomorphic to that of the implied original dynamical system, using fatalities or hospitalizations only. Finally, we restrict the diffeomorphism to the reported cases coordinate of the dynamical system. Our main finding is that in the European countries studied, the actual cases are under-reported by as much as 50%. On the other hand, in South Korea-which had a proactive mitigation approach-a far smaller discrepancy between the actual and reported cases is predicted, with an approximately 18% predicted underestimation. We believe that our backcasting framework is applicable to other epidemic outbreaks where (due to limited or poor quality data) there is uncertainty around the actual cases.

Parameter identifiability and optimal control of an SARS-CoV-2 model early in the pandemic

We fit an SARS-CoV-2 model to US data of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We conclude that the model is not structurally identifiable. We make the model identifiable by prefixing some of the parameters from external information. Practical identifiability of the model through Monte Carlo simulations reveals that two of the parameters may not be practically identifiable. With thus identified parameters, we set up an optimal control problem with social distancing and isolation as control variables. We investigate two scenarios: the controls are applied for the entire duration and the controls are applied only for the period of time. Our results show that if the controls are applied early in the epidemic, the reduction in the infected classes is at least an order of magnitude higher compared to when controls are applied with 2-week delay. Further, removing the controls before the pandemic ends leads to rebound of the infected classes.

Green spaces, especially nearby forest, may reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate: A nationwide study in the United States

The coronavirus pandemic is an ongoing global crisis that has profoundly harmed public health. Although studies found exposure to green spaces can provide multiple health benefits, the relationship between exposure to green spaces and the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate is unclear. This is a critical knowledge gap for research and practice. In this study, we examined the relationship between total green space, seven types of green space, and a year of SARS-CoV-2 infection data across 3,108 counties in the contiguous United States, after controlling for spatial autocorrelation and multiple types of covariates. First, we examined the association between total green space and SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Next, we examined the association between different types of green space and SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Then, we examined forest-infection rate association across five time periods and five urbanicity levels. Lastly, we examined the association between infection rate and population-weighted exposure to forest at varying buffer distances (100 m to 4 km). We found that total green space was negative associated with the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Furthermore, two forest variables (forest outside park and forest inside park) had the strongest negative association with the infection rate, while open space variables had mixed associations with the infection rate. Forest outside park was more effective than forest inside park. The optimal buffer distances associated with lowest infection rate are within 1,200 m for forest outside park and within 600 m for forest inside park. Altogether, the findings suggest that green spaces, especially nearby forest, may significantly mitigate risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.