Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

Water temperature affects somatic growth, body condition and oxygen and carbon otolith isotopes of stout whiting (Sillago robusta)

Ocean warming will continue to affect the growth, body condition and geographic distributions of marine fishes and understanding these effects is an urgent challenge for fisheries research and management. Determining how temperature is recorded in fish otolith carbonate, provides an additional chronological tool to investigate thermal histories, preferences and patterns of movement throughout an individual's life history. The influence of three water temperature treatments (22°C, 25°C, and 28°C) on hatchery-reared juvenile stout whiting, Sillago robusta, was tested using a controlled outdoor mesocosm system. Fish were measured for change in length and weight, and body condition was determined using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Sagittal otoliths were analysed for stable oxygen (δ18Ootolith) and carbon (δ13Cotolith) isotopes via isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Whiting kept at 22°C were significantly smaller and had diminished body condition compared to fish in 25°C and 28°C, which did not significantly differ from each other. The δ18O otolith values of stout whiting demonstrated a negative temperature-dependent fractionation relationship which was similar in slope but had a different intercept to the relationships reported for inorganic aragonite and other marine fish species. The δ13C otolith values also showed a negative relationship with water temperature, and the calculated proportion of metabolic carbon M in otoliths differed between fish reared in the coolest (22°C) and warmest (28°C) temperature treatments. Overall, the results suggest that stout whiting may have reached an upper growth threshold between 25°C and 28°C, and that growth and body condition may be optimised during warmer seasons and toward the northerly regions of their distribution. Otolith oxygen thermometry shows promise as a natural tracer of thermal life history, and species-specific fractionation equations should be utilised when possible to prevent errors in temperature reconstructions of wild-caught fish.

Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science

Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science - a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline - the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. 'non-native', 'alien', 'invasive' or 'invader', 'exotic', 'non-indigenous', 'naturalised', 'pest') to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms (i) 'non-native', denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, (ii) 'established non-native', i.e. those non-native species that have established self-sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and (iii) 'invasive non-native' - populations of established non-native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising 'spread' for classifying invasiveness and 'impact' for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on (i) dispersal mechanism, (ii) species origin, (iii) population status, and (iv) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non-native species.

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

Evidence of thermophilization in Afromontane forests

Thermophilization is the directional change in species community composition towards greater relative abundances of species associated with warmer environments. This process is well-documented in temperate and Neotropical plant communities, but it is uncertain whether this phenomenon occurs elsewhere in the tropics. Here we extend the search for thermophilization to equatorial Africa, where lower tree diversity compared to other tropical forest regions and different biogeographic history could affect community responses to climate change. Using re-census data from 17 forest plots in three mountain regions of Africa, we find a consistent pattern of thermophilization in tree communities. Mean rates of thermophilization were +0.0086 °C·y-1 in the Kigezi Highlands (Uganda), +0.0032 °C·y-1 in the Virunga Mountains (Rwanda-Uganda-Democratic Republic of the Congo) and +0.0023 °C·y-1 in the Udzungwa Mountains (Tanzania). Distinct from other forests, both recruitment and mortality were important drivers of thermophilzation in the African plots. The forests studied currently act as a carbon sink, but the consequences of further thermophilization are unclear.

Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches

The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.

Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18-years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change

Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species' shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, 'spatial match-mismatch' dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator-prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.

Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

When species don't move together: Non-concurrent range shifts in Eastern Pacific kelp forest communities

Species range shifts due to changing ocean conditions are occurring around the world. As species move, they build new interaction networks as they shift from or into new ecological communities. Typically, species ranges are modeled individually, but biotic interactions have been shown to be important to creating more realistic modeling outputs for species. To understand the importance of consumer interactions in Eastern Pacific kelp forest species distributions, we used a Maxent framework to model a key foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), and a dominant herbivore, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). With neither species having previously been modeled in the Eastern Pacific, we found evidence for M. pyrifera expansion in the northern section of its range, with no projected contraction at the southern range edge. Despite its known co-occurrence with M. pyrifera, models of S. purpuratus showed a non-concurrent southern range contraction and a co-occurring northern range expansion. While the co-occurring shifts may lead to increased spatial competition for suitable substrate, this non-concurrent contraction could result in community wide impacts such as herbivore release, tropicalization, or ecosystem restructuring.

Functional reorganization of North American wintering avifauna

Wintering birds serve as vital climate sentinels, yet they are often overlooked in studies of avian diversity change. Here, we provide a continental-scale characterization of change in multifaceted wintering avifauna and examine the effects of climate change on these dynamics. We reveal a strong functional reorganization of wintering bird communities marked by a north-south gradient in functional diversity change, along with a superimposed mild east-west gradient in trait composition change. Assemblages in the northern United States saw contractions of the functional space and increases in functional evenness and originality, while the southern United States saw smaller contractions of the functional space and stasis in evenness and originality. Shifts in functional diversity were underlined by significant reshuffling in trait composition, particularly pronounced in the western and northern United States. Finally, we find strong contributions of climate change to this functional reorganization, underscoring the importance of wintering birds in tracking climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Urban and agricultural influences on the coastal dissolved organic matter pool in the Algoa Bay estuaries

While anthropogenic pollution is a major threat to aquatic ecosystem health, our knowledge of the presence of xenobiotics in coastal Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) is still relatively poor. This is especially true for water bodies in the Global South with limited information gained mostly from targeted studies that rely on comparison with authentic standards. In recent years, non-targeted tandem mass spectrometry has emerged as a powerful tool to collectively detect and identify pollutants and biogenic DOM components in the environment, but this approach has yet to be widely utilized for monitoring ecologically important aquatic systems. In this study we compared the DOM composition of Algoa Bay, Eastern Cape, South Africa, and its two estuaries. The Swartkops Estuary is highly urbanized and severely impacted by anthropogenic pollution, while the Sundays Estuary is impacted by commercial agriculture in its catchment. We employed solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry to annotate more than 200 pharmaceuticals, pesticides, urban xenobiotics, and natural products based on spectral matching. The identification with authentic standards confirmed the presence of methamphetamine, carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, N-acetylsulfamethoxazole, imazapyr, caffeine and hexa(methoxymethyl)melamine, and allowed semi-quantitative estimations for annotated xenobiotics. The Swartkops Estuary DOM composition was strongly impacted by features annotated as urban pollutants including pharmaceuticals such as melamines and antiretrovirals. By contrast, the Sundays Estuary exhibited significant enrichment of molecules annotated as agrochemicals widely used in the citrus farming industry, with predicted concentrations for some of them exceeding predicted no-effect concentrations. This study provides new insight into anthropogenic impact on the Algoa Bay system and demonstrates the utility of non-targeted tandem mass spectrometry as a sensitive tool for assessing the health of ecologically important coastal ecosystems and will serve as a valuable foundation for strategizing long-term monitoring efforts.

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios

Stratospheric aerosol injection is a potential method of climate intervention to reduce climate risk as decarbonization efforts continue. However, possible ecosystem impacts from the strategic design of hypothetical intervention scenarios are poorly understood. Two recent Earth system model simulations depict policy-relevant stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with similar global temperature targets, but a 10-year delay in intervention deployment. Here we show this delay leads to distinct ecological risk profiles through climate speeds, which describe the rate of movement of thermal conditions. On a planetary scale, climate speeds in the simulation where the intervention maintains temperature are not statistically distinguishable from preindustrial conditions. In contrast, rapid temperature reduction following delayed deployment produces climate speeds over land beyond either a preindustrial baseline or no-intervention climate change with present policy. The area exposed to threshold climate speeds places different scenarios in context to their relative ecological risks. Our results support discussion of tradeoffs and timescales in future scenario design and decision-making.

Hymenopteran-specific TRPA channel from the Texas leaf cutter ant (Atta texana) is heat and cold activated and expression correlates with environmental temperature

Leaf cutting ants of the genus Atta cultivate fungal gardens, carefully modifying environmental conditions to maintain optimal temperature for fungal growth. Antennal nerves from Atta are highly temperature sensitive, but the underlying molecular sensor is unknown. Here, we utilize Atta texana (Texas leaf cutter ant) to investigate the molecular basis of ant temperature sensation and how it might have evolved as the range expanded northeast across Texas from ancestral populations in Mexico. We focus on transient receptor potential (TRP) channel genes, the best characterized temperature sensor proteins in animals. Atta texana antennae express 6 of 13 Hymenopteran TRP channel genes and sequences are under a mix of relaxed and intensified selection. In a behavioral assay, we find A. texana workers prefer 24 °C (range 21-26 °C) for fungal growth. There was no evidence of regulatory evolution across a temperature transect in Texas, but instead Hymenoptera-specific TRPA (HsTRPA) expression highly correlated with ambient temperature. When expressed in vitro, HsTRPA from A. texana is temperature activated with Q10 values exceeding 100 on initial exposure to temperatures above 33 °C. Surprisingly, HsTRPA also appears to be activated by cooling, and therefore to our knowledge, the first non-TRPA1 ortholog to be described with dual heat/cold activation and the first in any invertebrate.

Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change

Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 s and 2100 s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050 s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100 s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Density-dependent species interactions modulate alpine treeline shifts

Species interactions such as facilitation and competition play a crucial role in driving species range shifts. However, density dependence as a key feature of these processes has received little attention in both empirical and modelling studies. Herein, we used a novel, individual-based treeline model informed by rich in situ observations to quantify the contribution of density-dependent species interactions to alpine treeline dynamics, an iconic biome boundary recognized as an indicator of global warming. We found that competition and facilitation dominate in dense versus sparse vegetation scenarios respectively. The optimal balance between these two effects was identified at an intermediate vegetation thickness where the treeline elevation was the highest. Furthermore, treeline shift rates decreased sharply with vegetation thickness and the associated transition from positive to negative species interactions. We thus postulate that vegetation density must be considered when modelling species range dynamics to avoid inadequate predictions of its responses to climate warming.

Upward and Poleward (but Not Phenological) Shifts in a Forest Tenebrionid Beetle in Response to Global Change in a Mediterranean Area

There is an increasing volume of literature on the impact of climate change on insects. However, there is an urgent need for more empirical research on underrepresented groups in key areas, including species for which the effects of climatic change may seem less evident. The present paper illustrates the results of a study on a common forest tenebrionid beetle, Accanthopus velikensis (Piller and Mitterpacher, 1783), at a regional scale within the Mediterranean basin. Using a large set of records from Latium (central Italy), changes in the median values of elevation, latitude, longitude, and phenology between two periods (1900-1980 vs. 1981-2022) were tested. Records of A. velikensis in the period 1981-2022 showed median values of elevation and latitude higher than those recorded in the first period. Thus, in response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. By contrast, A. velikensis does not seem to have changed its activity pattern in response to increased temperatures, but this might be an artifact due to the inclusion of likely overwintering individuals. The results obtained for A. velikensis indicate that even thermally euryoecious species can show changes in their elevational and latitudinal distribution, and that poleward shifts can be apparent even within a small latitudinal gradient.

Predicting the current fishable habitat distribution of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) and its shift in the future under climate change in the Southern Ocean

Global warming continues to exert unprecedented impacts on marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) are proven powerful in predicting habitat distribution for marine demersal species under climate change impacts. The Antarctic toothfish, Dissostichus mawsoni (Norman 1937), an ecologically and commercially significant species, is endemic to the Southern Ocean. Utilizing occurrence records and environmental data, we developed an ensemble model that integrates various modelling techniques. This model characterizes species-environment relationships and predicts current and future fishable habitats of D. mawsoni under four climate change scenarios. Ice thickness, depth and mean water temperature were the top three important factors in affecting the distribution of D. mawsoni. The ensemble prediction suggests an overall expansion of fishable habitats, potentially due to the limited occurrence records from fishery-dependent surveys. Future projections indicate varying degrees of fishable habitat loss in large areas of the Amery Ice Shelf's eastern and western portions. Suitable fishable habitats, including the spawning grounds in the seamounts around the northern Ross Sea and the coastal waters of the Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea, were persistent under present and future environmental conditions, highlighting the importance to protect these climate refugia from anthropogenic disturbance. Though data deficiency existed in this study, our predictions can provide valuable information for designing climate-adaptive development and conservation strategies in maintaining the sustainability of this species.

Ancient DNA and osteological analyses of a unique paleo-archive reveal Early Holocene faunal expansion into the Scandinavian Arctic

Paleo-archives are essential for our understanding of species responses to climate warming, yet such archives are extremely rare in the Arctic. Here, we combine morphological analyses and bulk-bone metabarcoding to investigate a unique chronology of bone deposits sealed in the high-latitude Storsteinhola cave system (68°50' N 16°22' E) in Norway. This deposit dates to a period of climate warming from the end of the Late Glacial [~13 thousand calibrated years before the present (ka cal B.P.)] to the Holocene thermal maximum (~5.6 ka cal B.P.). Paleogenetic analyses allow us to exploit the 1000s of morphologically unidentifiable bone fragments resulting in a high-resolution sequence with 40 different taxa, including species not previously found here. Our record reveals borealization in both the marine and terrestrial environments above the Arctic Circle as a naturally recurring phenomenon in past periods of warming, providing fundamental insights into the ecosystem-wide responses that are ongoing today.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

Does heat tolerance actually predict animals' geographic thermal limits?

The "climate extremes hypothesis" is a major assumption of geographic studies of heat tolerance and climatic vulnerability. However, this assumption remains vastly untested across taxa, and multiple factors may contribute to uncoupling heat tolerance estimates and geographic limits. Our dataset includes 1000 entries of heat tolerance data and maximum temperatures for each species' known geographic limits (hereafter, Tmax). We gathered this information across major animal taxa, including marine fish, terrestrial arthropods, amphibians, non-avian reptiles, birds, and mammals. We first tested if heat tolerance constrains the Tmax of sites where species could be observed. Secondly, we tested if the strength of such restrictions depends on how high Tmax is relative to heat tolerance. Thirdly, we correlated the different estimates of Tmax among them and across species. Restrictions are strong for amphibians, arthropods, and birds but often weak or inconsistent for reptiles and mammals. Marine fish describe a non-linear relationship that contrasts with terrestrial groups. Traditional heat tolerance measures in thermal vulnerability studies, like panting temperatures and the upper set point of preferred temperatures, do not predict Tmax or are inversely correlated to it, respectively. Heat tolerance restricts the geographic warm edges more strongly for species that reach sites with higher Tmax for their heat tolerance. These emerging patterns underline the importance of reliable species' heat tolerance indexes to identify their thermal vulnerability at their warm range edges. Besides, the tight correlations of Tmax estimates across on-land microhabitats support a view of multiple types of thermal challenges simultaneously shaping ranges' warm edges for on-land species. The heterogeneous correlation of Tmax estimates in the ocean supports the view that fish thermoregulation is generally limited, too. We propose new hypotheses to understand thermal restrictions on animal distribution.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities

Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change's impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Flexible foraging behaviour increases predator vulnerability to climate change

Higher temperatures are expected to reduce species coexistence by increasing energetic demands. However, flexible foraging behaviour could balance this effect by allowing predators to target specific prey species to maximize their energy intake, according to principles of optimal foraging theory. Here we test these assumptions using a large dataset comprising 2,487 stomach contents from six fish species with different feeding strategies, sampled across environments with varying prey availability over 12 years in Kiel Bay (Baltic Sea). Our results show that foraging shifts from trait- to density-dependent prey selectivity in warmer and more productive environments. This behavioural change leads to lower consumption efficiency at higher temperature as fish select more abundant but less energetically rewarding prey, thereby undermining species persistence and biodiversity. By integrating this behaviour into dynamic food web models, our study reveals that flexible foraging leads to lower species coexistence and biodiversity in communities under global warming.

Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters

Aquatic ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. By analysing ~15,000 coastal-reef fish surveys across a 15°C spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we found that the mean length of fish in communities decreased by ~5% for each 1°C temperature increase across space, or 50% decrease in mean length from 14 to 29°C mean annual SST. Community mean body size change was driven by differential temperature responses within trophic groups and temperature-driven change in their relative abundance. Herbivores, invertivores and planktivores became smaller on average in warmer temperatures, but no trend was found in piscivores. Nearly 25% of the temperature-related community mean size trend was attributable to trophic composition at the warmest sites, but at colder temperatures, this was <1% due to trophic groups being similarly sized. Our findings suggest that small changes in temperature are associated with large changes in fish community composition and body sizes, with important ecological implications.

Schrödinger's Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change

AbstractThe majority of species display strongly asymmetric responses to climatic variables, yet most analytic models used to investigate how species will respond to climate change assume symmetric responses, with largely unknown consequences. Applying a known mapping of population dynamical equations onto corresponding well-studied problems from quantum mechanics, we extend analytical results to incorporate this asymmetry. We derive expressions in terms of parameters representing climate velocity, dispersal rate, maximum growth rate, niche width, high-frequency climate variability, and environmental performance curve skew for three key responses: (1) population persistence, (2) lag between range displacement and climate displacement, and (3) location of maximum population sensitivity. We find that asymmetry impacts these climate change responses, but surprisingly, under our model assumptions, the direction (i.e., warm skewed or cool skewed) of performance curve asymmetry does not strongly contribute to either persistence or lags. Conservation measures to support range-shifting populations may have most benefit near their environmental optimum or where the environmental dependence is shallow, irrespective of whether this is the leading or trailing edge. A metapopulation simulation corroborates our results. Our results shed fresh light on how key features of a species' environmental performance curve can impact its response to climate change.

A fiddler crab reduces plant growth in its expanded range

Species across the planet are shifting or expanding their ranges because of climate change. These are climate migrants. Although climate migrants are well documented, their impacts on recipient ecosystems are not. Climate migrants that are also ecosystem engineers (species that modify or create habitats) will likely have profound effects on ecosystems. The Atlantic marsh fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax, is a burrowing crab that recently expanded its range into the northeastern United States. In its historical range, M. pugnax enhances the aboveground growth of the cordgrass Spartina alterniflora, a plant critical to marsh persistence. In a control-impact study, however, we found that Spartina aboveground biomass was 40% lower when M. pugnax was present. Thus, the positive effect of M. pugnax on Spartina aboveground biomass flipped to a negative one in its expanded range. Spartina belowground biomass was also 30% lower on average when crabs were present, a finding consistent with what is seen in the historical range. These impacts on Spartina are likely due to burrowing by M. pugnax. Benthic microalgae was, on average, 45% lower when crabs were present. Fiddler crabs eat benthic microalgae, and these results suggest that fiddler crabs can control algal biomass via grazing. Because fiddler crabs reduced the biomass of foundational primary producers in its expanded range, our results imply that M. pugnax can influence other saltmarsh functions such as carbon storage and accretion as they expand north. Most strikingly, our results suggest that as species expand or shift their range with climate change, not only can they have profound impacts in their new ranges but those impacts can be the inverse of what is seen in their historical ranges.

Research on the Changes in Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Chinese Red Panda Population

The study of the dynamics of species habitat is of great significance for maintaining or adjusting the current habitat protection management strategy. However, the current research on the Chinese red panda's habitat is limited to the analysis of a single period, which makes it difficult to quantify the changes in its habitat on a temporal scale and greatly hinders the formulation of the overall protection and management strategies that are to be used for the Chinese red panda. This study simulated habitat suitability at different temporal scales to quantify the trend of changes in habitat quality and analyzed the reasons for the changes in habitat suitability in certain regions. The results showed that the overall suitability of the Chinese red panda's habitat increased and that the area of suitable habitats expanded. Suitable Chinese red panda habitats in the mountains of Qionglai (1662.73 km2), Daxiangling (230.30 km2), Xiaoxiangling (549.47 km2), and Liangshan (50.39 km2) increased by a total of 2452.89 km2. The suitability of habitats in the central part of the Liangshan Mountains has declined significantly, which is positively correlated with changes in temperature seasonality (BIO4, R = 0.18) and negatively correlated with changes in annual average temperature (BIO1, R = -0.03) as well as changes in the proportion of farmland (FARMLAND, R = -0.14). The local extinction of isolated populations of Chinese red pandas in the Minshan Mountains is the main factor leading to their distribution retreat rather than a decrease in habitat quality. The research results help us to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of conservation and management strategies for Chinese red pandas at different scales.

Spatio-temporal modelling suggests that some dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) may respond to global warming by boosting dung removal

In the current framework of changes to the global climate, information on the thermal tolerance of dung beetles is crucial to understand how they might cope with increases in land temperature in terms of survival and ecosystem service provision. In this spatio-temporal modelling study, we investigated the thermal tolerance and effect of temperature changes on dung removal by three dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) living within the 600-1400 m altitudinal belt in the Italian Alps. We chose large tunneler beetles because of their pivotal role in dung removal and nutrient recycling, important ecosystem services for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system. Our study used experimental data on dung removal at different temperatures to predict changes to this ecosystem service in the future considering different climatic scenarios and changes in land use for the specific study area. The results show that the temperature increases incurred between 1981 and 2005 may have boosted rates of spring dung removal across the entire study area (expressed as average dung removal per pair per month), partially compensating for the reduction in grassland extent within pasture-based livestock farming systems. Despite the limitations related to modelling future climate change scenarios and uncertainties deriving from several interacting factors (e.g., the sensitivity of large-bodied species to land-use changes), our results suggest that the predicted increases in temperature over the next 80 years would continue to boost dung removal, revealing a resilience of this service. The increase in dung removal rates, for all three species, is mainly related to the most extreme scenario of carbon emissions and for the months spanning from May to October of the interval 2041-2100. Focusing on large tunnelers and adopting a dynamic approach that considers changes in dung removal over space and time can assist ecosystem service conservation planning.

Metabolic responses to cold and warm extremes in the ocean

Temperature influences the geographical distribution of species, but its mechanisms are much debated. A new study in PLOS Biology suggests that metabolic constrains can arise in both warm and cold waters at the geographical range limits of marine species.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

Urban Magpies Frequently Feed on Coyote Scats and May Spread an Emerging Zoonotic Tapeworm

Allocoprophagy, in which animals feed on the feces of other individuals or species, has been little studied in vertebrates, despite its relevance to parasite transmission. These relationships may be especially important in cities, where animal density, disease incidence, and spatial overlap of humans and wildlife increase. Our goal was to document the incidence and predictors of coprophagy by black-billed magpies (Pica hudsonia) at coyote (Canis latrans) scats in Edmonton, Canada. We detected scats by following coyote trails and recorded whether coprophagy had occurred. We used multiple logistic regression to determine the top contextual and environmental predictors of coprophagy. Of 668 coyote scats, 37.3% had apparently been fed on. Coprophagy was more likely in winter and when scats were not fresh and did not contain vegetation or garbage. Environmental predictors of coprophagy included proximity to other coyote scats and playgrounds, distance from water and maintained trails, abundant natural land cover, and proximity to encampments of people experiencing homelessness. Our results reveal that magpies frequently access coyote scat and often do so near human-use areas. In Edmonton, where > 50% of coyotes are infected with a zoonotic tapeworm, coprophagy likely causes magpies to transport parasites with implications for zoonotic disease risk.

Not just range limits: Warming rate and thermal sensitivity shape climate change vulnerability in a species range center

Climate change manifests unevenly across space and time and produces complex patterns of stress for ecological systems. Species can also show substantial among-population variability in response to environmental change across their geographic range due to evolutionary processes. Explanatory factors or their proxies, such as temperature and latitude, help parse these sources of environmental and intraspecific variability; however, overemphasizing latitudinal trends can obscure the role of local environmental conditions in shaping population vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on the geographic center of a species range to disentangle latitude, we test the hypothesis that populations from warmer regions of a species range are more vulnerable to ocean warming. We conducted a mesocosm experiment and field reciprocal transplant with four populations of a marine snail, Nucella lamellosa, from two regions in British Columbia, Canada, that differ in thermal characteristics: the Central Coast, a cool region, and the Strait of Georgia, one of the warmest regions of this species' range and one that is warming faster than the Central Coast. Populations from the Strait of Georgia experienced growth reductions at contemporary summertime seawater temperatures in the laboratory and showed stark reductions in survival and growth under future seawater conditions and when outplanted at their native transplant sites. This indicates a high vulnerability to ocean warming, especially given the faster rate of ocean warming in this region. In contrast, populations from the cooler Central Coast demonstrated high performance at contemporary seawater temperatures and high growth and survival in projected future seawater temperatures and at their native outplant sites. Given their position within the geographic center of N. lamellosa's range, extirpation events in the vulnerable Strait of Georgia populations could compromise connectivity within the metapopulation and lead to gaps across this species' range. Overall, our study supports predictions that populations from warm regions of species ranges are more vulnerable to environmental warming, suggests that the Strait of Georgia and other inland or coastal seas could be focal points for climate change effects and ecological transformation, and emphasizes the importance of analyzing climate change vulnerability in the context of regional environmental data and throughout a species' range.

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

Temperate species underfill their tropical thermal potentials on land

Understanding how temperature determines the distribution of life is necessary to assess species' sensitivities to contemporary climate change. Here, we test the importance of temperature in limiting the geographic ranges of ectotherms by comparing the temperatures and areas that species occupy to the temperatures and areas species could potentially occupy on the basis of their physiological thermal tolerances. We find that marine species across all latitudes and terrestrial species from the tropics occupy temperatures that closely match their thermal tolerances. However, terrestrial species from temperate and polar latitudes are absent from warm, thermally tolerable areas that they could potentially occupy beyond their equatorward range limits, indicating that extreme temperature is often not the factor limiting their distributions at lower latitudes. This matches predictions from the hypothesis that adaptation to cold environments that facilitates survival in temperate and polar regions is associated with a performance trade-off that reduces species' abilities to contend in the tropics, possibly due to biotic exclusion. Our findings predict more direct responses to climate warming of marine ranges and cool range edges of terrestrial species.

Microbiome and photoperiod interactively determine thermal sensitivity of polar and temperate diatoms

The effect of temperature on ectothermic organisms in the context of climate change has long been considered in isolation (i.e. as a single driver). This is challenged by observations demonstrating that temperature-dependent growth is correlated to further factors. However, little is known how the chronobiological history of an organism reflected in its adaptation to re-occurring cyclic patterns in its environment (e.g. annual range of photoperiods in its habitat) and biotic interactions with its microbiome, contribute to shaping its realized niche. To address this, we conducted a full-factorial microcosm multi-stressor experiment with the marine diatoms Thalassiosira gravida (polar) and Thalassiosira rotula (temperate) across multiple levels of temperature (4°C; 9°C; 13.5°C) and photoperiod (4 h; 16 h; 24 h), both in the presence or absence of their microbiomes. While temperature-dependent growth of the temperate diatom was constrained by short and long photoperiods, the polar diatom coped with a 24 h photoperiod up to its thermal optimum (9°C). The algal microbiomes particularly supported host growth at the margins of their respective fundamental niches except for the combination of the warmest temperature tested at 24 h photoperiod. Overall, this study demonstrates that temperature tolerances may have evolved interactively and that the mutualistic effect of the microbiome can only be determined once the multifactorial abiotic niche is defined.

Accelerating local extinction associated with very recent climate change

Climate change has already caused local extinction in many plants and animals, based on surveys spanning many decades. As climate change accelerates, the pace of these extinctions may also accelerate, potentially leading to large-scale, species-level extinctions. We tested this hypothesis in a montane lizard. We resurveyed 18 mountain ranges in 2021-2022 after only ~7 years. We found rates of local extinction among the fastest ever recorded, which have tripled in the past ~7 years relative to the preceding ~42 years. Further, climate change generated local extinction in ~7 years similar to that seen in other organisms over ~70 years. Yet, contrary to expectations, populations at two of the hottest sites survived. We found that genomic data helped predict which populations survived and which went extinct. Overall, we show the increasing risk to biodiversity posed by accelerating climate change and the opportunity to study its effects over surprisingly brief timescales.

Sunken trees in the deep sea link terrestrial and marine biodiversity

Wood in the deep sea serves as a substantial food source in an otherwise barren environment, forming specialized, endemic, and diverse community assemblages. This biodiversity reliance on a terrestrial source creates a linkage by which anthropogenic impacts on land can alter the deep oceans. Knowledge of the alpha- or beta-diversity of entire wood-fall communities, and wooden drivers of each would elucidate the terrestrial and deep-sea linkage. We report on a multifactorial experiment in the deep ocean in which alpha- and beta-diversity of 43 wood falls and 11 tree species are quantified over time, wood density, and wood size. We tested multiple hypotheses seeking to link how biodiversity on land may impact the biodiversity in the deep oceans. A tremendous biodiversity occurred among these wood falls in the deep Gulf of Mexico; 114 invertebrate species from 10 phyla. Time, wood hardness, and wood size all impacted various components of community structure. In many cases, these effects were additive. Species occurring on softwoods versus hardwoods and small versus large wood falls were compositionally different. Although various processes can control community structure, this experiment suggests a strong influence of environmental filtering and host specificity of wood-fall invertebrates suggesting an intimate coupling to tree biodiversity and biomass on land.

Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

The poleward naturalization of intracontinental alien plants

Plant introductions outside their native ranges by humans have led to substantial ecological consequences. While we have gained considerable knowledge about intercontinental introductions, the distribution and determinants of intracontinental aliens remain poorly understood. Here, we studied naturalized (i.e., self-sustaining) intracontinental aliens using native and alien floras of 243 mainland regions in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. We revealed that 4510 plant species had intracontinental origins, accounting for 3.9% of all plant species and 56.7% of all naturalized species in these continents. In North America and Europe, the numbers of intracontinental aliens peaked at mid-latitudes, while the proportion peaked at high latitudes in Europe. Notably, we found predominant poleward naturalization, primarily due to larger native species pools in low-latitudes. Geographic and climatic distances constrained the naturalization of intracontinental aliens in Australia, Europe, and North America, but not in South America. These findings suggest that poleward naturalizations will accelerate, as high latitudes become suitable for more plant species due to climate change.

Sustained mangrove reproduction despite major turnover in pollinator community composition at expanding range edge

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

How well plants reproduce near their geographic range edge can determine whether distributions will shift in response to changing climate. Reproduction at the range edge can be limiting if pollinator scarcity leads to pollen limitation, or if abiotic stressors affect allocation to reproduction. For many animal-pollinated plants with expanding ranges, the mechanisms by which they have overcome these barriers are poorly understood.

METHODS

In this study, we examined plant-pollinator interactions hypothesized to impact reproduction of the black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, which is expanding northward in coastal Florida, USA. We monitored insects visiting A. germinans populations varying in proximity to the geographic range edge, measured the pollen loads of the most common insect taxa and pollen receipt by A. germinans stigmas, and quantified flower and propagule production.

KEY RESULTS

We found that despite an 84 % decline in median floral visits by insects at northernmost versus southernmost sites, range-edge pollen receipt remained high. Notably, local floral visitor assemblages exhibited substantial turnover along the study's latitudinal gradient, with large-bodied bees and hover flies increasingly common at northern sites. We also observed elevated flower production in northern populations and higher per capita reproductive output at the range edge. Furthermore, mean propagule mass in northern populations was 18 % larger than that from the southernmost populations.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reveal no erosion of fecundity in A. germinans populations at range limits, allowing rapid expansion of mangrove cover in the region. These results also illustrate that substantial turnover in the assemblage of flower-visiting insects can occur at an expanding range edge without altering pollen receipt.

The role of thermal tolerance in determining elevational distributions of four arthropod taxa in mountain ranges of southern Asia

Understanding the role of thermal tolerances in determining species distributions is important for assessing species responses to climate change. Two hypotheses linking physiology with species distributions have been put forward-the climatic variability hypothesis and the climatic extreme hypothesis. The climatic variability hypothesis predicts the selection of individuals with broad thermal tolerance in more variable climatic conditions and the climatic extreme hypothesis predicts the selection of individuals with extreme thermal tolerance values under extreme climatic conditions. However, no study has tested the predictions of these hypotheses simultaneously for several taxonomic groups along elevational gradients. Here, we related experimentally measured critical thermal maxima, critical thermal minima and thermal tolerance breadths for 15,187 individuals belonging to 116 species of ants, beetles, grasshoppers, and spiders from mountain ranges in central and northern Pakistan to the limits and breadths of their geographic and temperature range. Across all species and taxonomic groups, we found strong relationships between thermal traits and elevational distributions both in terms of geography and temperature. The relationships were robust when repeating the analyses for ants, grasshoppers, and spiders but not for beetles. These results indicate a strong role of physiology in determining elevational distributions of arthropods in Southern Asia. Overall, we found strong support for the climatic variability hypothesis and the climatic extreme hypothesis. A close association between species' distributional limits and their thermal tolerances suggest that in case of a failure to adapt or acclimate to novel climatic conditions, species may be under pressure to track their preferred climatic conditions, potentially facing serious consequences under current and future climate change.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.